Cubs Hold Slight Edge Over Brewers In National League Central ZiPS Projections

[Steve Drumwright]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

With most rosters in a finished form as spring training rapidly approaches, the first ZiPS standings of 2026 are out.

And as expected, the NL Central will be a dogfight between the three-time defending champion Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs, who have finished second to the Crew in each of those years.

Will that change in 2026?

ZiPS, the projection system developed by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, has the Brewers and Cubs once again in the top two spots, only with the team from Chicago having a very slight projection edge. ZiPS has the Cubs going 87-75 with the Brewers one game back at 86-76. The Cincinnati Reds, as expected, will finish third, per the projections, at 78-84, with the St. Louis Cardinals at 77-85 and Pittsburgh Pirates bringing up the rear at 74-88. The NL Central is the tightest of MLB's six divisions, with 13 wins separating first place and last place. The AL Central was next with a 14-win gap.

These results were the result of "a million simulations," not just through number-crunching. The Cubs won the division 42.1% of the time and the Brewers 40.3%. When not winning the Central, the Brewers earned a wild-card spot in 20.9% of simulations and the Cubs 20.5%. Overall, the Cubs made the playoffs at a 62.5% rate and the Crew 61.2%. As for chances of winning the World Series, the Cubs came out on top at 5%, with the Brewers at 4.5%.

In case you are wondering how the recent Freddy Peralta trade by the Crew affected the projections, Symborski said it only had a minimal effect.

During his write-up on the team projections that came out Dec. 9, Szymborski said the Brewers would win between 86 and 94 games. That fits with this standings projection, albeit on the bottom end. Most projection systems do tend to have lower numbers across the board. For instance, only four teams are projected to win 90 or more games, led by the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers at 96-66. Szymborski explains that by saying: "These are median standings, meaning that they represent every team’s 50th-percentile projection."

Over the last three years, the Brewers won the division with 92, 93, and an MLB-best 97 wins, with the Cubs second at 83, 83, and 92 victories. The rivalry took another step with the first postseason meeting, with the Brewers winning the NL Wild Card Series in a decisive third game.

Regarding the Peralta trade to the New York Mets, Symborski said the Brewers are "looking strong even without Freddy Peralta in large part because I’m giving more playing time to the players ZiPS likes than I usually do, as my failure to do so has been the biggest reason the system has underestimated Milwaukee in recent years."

The Cubs, meanwhile, "remain very strong, with ZiPS mainly concerned about the rotation," Szymborski wrote.

As for the remaining three teams, Szymborski said the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates have "serious enough problems" that it is very unlikely they challenge the Brewers and the Cubs.

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[GantnerRules]

Is this article a copy-and-paste from last year? Sure seems like it. 

Ah, no - they probably showed their bias by rating the Cardinals rated higher last year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

33 minutes ago, GantnerRules said:

Is this article a copy-and-paste from last year? Sure seems like it. 

Ah, no - they probably showed their bias by rating the Cardinals rated higher last year. 

It's okay to find it amusing that projection systems under-rate the Brewers every. single. year.