2026 Is Shaping Up To Be The Fastest Fastball Season Ever

[N.B. Lindberg]

Image courtesy of © Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If you’ve been watching baseball over the past two decades, hell, even the past decade, you’ll likely have noticed the explosion in pitcher velocity. Back in 2007, Felix Hernandez’s 95.6 MPH average four-seam fastball velocity was the hardest among qualified starting pitchers. Almost 20 years later, in 2025, that would have ranked 15th, just behind Brian Woo. However, what has generally been a slow and steady creep in velocity has exploded to start the 2026 season, and we’re not even at peak fastball season. 

It's only April, but the average four-seam fastball velocity is 94.7 MPH, the highest monthly velocity since 2007. The previous record was 94.4 MPH, set just last September, but the magnitude of the spike is noteworthy in and of itself. Outside of the 2007 season, the first season I have data, fastball velocity has slowly inched up about 0.1 MPH every half season (0.1 MPH every 3.33 playing months). On its face, that doesn’t seem like that much, but over 19 seasons*, that adds 3.6 MPH to the average fastball. 

*All data excludes the 2020 season for obvious reasons

Average Four-Seam Fastball Velocity by Month 2007-2026 

Velocity gains from one season tend to hold over to the next season. Between 2007 and 2026, the average four-seam fastball velocity in April of a new season rose or stayed the same from the prior season’s September average velocity in 13 out of 18 seasons, but generally by only a small fraction. The 0.3 MPH increase from September 2025 to April 2026 constitutes the single largest April jump in the sample’s history. This all but guarantees 2026 will set the single-season average four-seam fastball velocity record, but just how high remains the question. 

Historically, fastball velocity tends to slowly inch up over the course of a season before plateauing in June and July, dipping a tad in August, and then rising again in September. The exact reason for this relatively consistent fluctuation is beyond the scope of my data, but it makes intuitive baseball sense. Pitchers take time to build up in the early part of the season, hit their physical peak, maintain it, then run into the brick wall known as the dog days of August, before closing the season with two extra roster spots and the adrenaline of a playoff push. 

Four-Seam Fastball Velocity By Month 2007-2026

	Average 4SFB Velo in MPH						Difference From Mar/April
Season	Mar/April	May	June	July	August	Sep/Oct	May - Mar	June - Mar	July - Mar	Aug - Mar	Oct - Mar	Next Season Bump
2007	89.1	90.2	91.8	91.3	91.3	91.6	1.1	2.7	2.2	2.2	2.5
2008	91.7	91.8	91.9	92	91.8	91.9	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.1
2009	92.1	92.1	92.1	92.2	92.3	92.3	0	0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2
2010	92.1	92.2	92.2	92.3	92.5	92.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	-0.2
2011	92.5	92.6	92.6	92.7	92.7	92.7	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
2012	92.7	92.8	92.8	92.6	92.7	92.7	0.1	0.1	-0.1	0	0	0
2013	92.8	92.7	92.9	93	93	93	-0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
2014	93.1	93	93.1	93.1	93	93.1	-0.1	0	0	-0.1	0	0.1
2015	93.3	93.4	93.4	93.4	93.4	93.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.1	0.2
2016	93	93.2	93.4	93.6	93.5	93.5	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5	-0.2
2017	93.3	93.4	93.5	93.5	93.4	93.5	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	-0.2
2018	92.8	93.2	93.4	93.3	93.3	93.4	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	-0.7
2019	93.3	93.3	93.6	93.6	93.5	93.6	0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	-0.1
2021	93.8	93.8	93.7	93.7	93.7	93.8	0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0	0.2
2022	94	93.9	93.8	93.8	93.8	93.9	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	0.2
2023	93.9	94.2	94.2	94.2	94	94.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.3	0
2024	94.3	94.4	94.4	94.4	94.2	94.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.1	0	0.1
2025	94.3	94.3	94.3	94.3	94.2	94.4	0	0	0	-0.1	0.1	0
2026	94.7											0.3
Average	92.89	93.03	93.17	93.17	93.13	93.19	0.13	0.28	0.27	0.23	0.30	-0.006
Median	93.05	93.2	93.4	93.35	93.35	93.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1

Between 2007 and 2025, the average fastball velocity was 0.3 MPH faster in September than it was in April. However, those numbers are fudged by 2007 being a truly bizarre year, where the average velocity was 89.1 MPH in April before peaking at 91.6 MPH in September. Removing 2007 from the analysis, the average increase drops to 0.17 MPH between April and September, which would push the league-average fastball velocity to 94.87 MPH in September of 2026. 

Unsurprisingly, as fastball velocities have increased, the month-to-month fluctuations have narrowed. Since 2021, the largest in-season month-to-month swing in velocity occurred between April and May of 2023, with an average fastball velocity increase of 0.3 MPH. There’s a decent chance, based on recent trends, that the average fastball velocity for 2026 hovers around 94.7, but it wouldn’t be without precedent for us to witness the first 95 MPH month in history. 

Even if 2026 doesn't treat us to the 95 MPH month, we’re likely only a season, at most, away from the milestone. At some point, velocity will stagnate. The human body, even when maxed out and optimized, is only capable of generating so much force. Unfortunately for the next generation of elbows, they’ll find that upper limit, or die trying.  

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