All You Need To Know About The 2026 MLB Draft Lottery

The 2026 MLB Draft Lottery is coming up on December 9th. Let’s dig into how the lottery works, the wrinkles that keep things interesting, and the implications for teams covered by Diamondcentric.

When is the Lottery?
Tuesday, December 9, time TBD (5:30 ET in 2025). The 2026 MLB Draft Lottery will be broadcast live on MLB Network and streamed on MLB.com. 

What is the Purpose of the Lottery?
Introduced as part of the 2022 CBA ahead of the 2023 draft cycle, the first six picks of a given draft cycle are now determined by lottery to discourage tanking. 

Do Teams Actually Move Up?
Yes. The Twins jumped from thirteenth to fifth in the inaugural draft lottery for the 2023 cycle, a move that allowed them to draft Walker Jenkins near the top of an exceptional class. In 2024, the Guardians jumped all the way to first overall, despite having just 2.0% odds of doing so. Their jump allowed them to select Travis Bazzana at number one in addition to stocking up on tons of prep talent with their bloated bonus pool. In 2025, the Mariners made the most significant jump, jumping to third overall despite having only the 15th-worst record.

How does it work?
Any team that didn’t make the postseason is eligible for the lottery, with odds decreasing for teams with superior win/loss records. The lottery is actually held in advance of the broadcast, which serves as a results show for a process completed by an independent auditor earlier the same day. Picks 1-6 are awarded in that order by a draw that spits out ping pong balls with a four-number combination that corresponds to a given team. The worse your 2025 record, the more number combinations you have in the draw. Picks 7-18 are in accordance with pre-lottery odds for non-playoff teams. Finally, the playoff teams' order is determined by their elimination from postseason play (not their regular-season records). Picks awarded by the lottery are only adjusted for round one. The order of the remaining rounds is determined by their regular-season record.

What are the wrinkles?
The largest is that there are teams that can’t pick in the top ten because they are ineligible. Any payor club (read: large market) is ineligible to receive a lottery pick in two consecutive draft cycles. As such, the Nationals will pick 11th and the Angels 12th in 2026. Additionally, revenue-receiving teams are ineligible to receive a lottery pick in three consecutive cycles. As such, the Colorado Rockies will pick tenth in 2026, despite finishing with an MLB-worst 43-119 record.

The Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Dodgers will likely receive a ten-pick penalty for being in the luxury tax. The Mets' ten-pick penalty will be deferred to their second pick if they end up in the top six.

What are the team's chances of landing the top pick?
You can find the team's current odds of landing the top pick listed below:

White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) -- ineligible

However, the lottery shakes out; it’s worth paying attention to. At the least, a team that moves from the middle of the first round to a lottery spot has a good chance to add a top 50 global prospect to their system. We’ll have relevant team-by-team breakdowns at DiamondCentric sites in the coming weeks.

Check out our 2026 mock draft board, updated regularly, and with detailed player write-ups!