May MLB Draft Updates: A Consensus Top Four Emerge In Deep Draft Class

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We’re in the midst of the most prolific in-season update of the draft cycle. Leading up to the draft, all of the major industry outlets release a significant update at the end of each month through the end of June. I’ll be posting an update on a regular cadence at DC to walk through majors risers, fallers, and trends reflected in the consensus board.

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A Consensus Top Four has Emerged

Roch Cholowsky has cemented himself at the top of the draft board after a recent home run tear. He’s managed 18 home runs and a 153 wRC+ while playing outstanding defense at shortstop. Behind him, Grady Emerson has held steady at two. He has an unusual amount of polish for a prep prospect, with the most polished hit tool in the class. Vahn Lackey has been the biggest riser on the college side this season. He’s doubled his previous career high in home runs, doubled his walk rate, and rocked a 148 wRC+ with outstanding defense at catcher. He’s lining up to be a top-three pick. Finally, Jackson Flora has a cool 0.78 ERA while striking out 32% of batters. That’s not quite the level of dominance as recent highly drafted college arms, who usually strike out closer to 40% of batters, but he’s posted every week.

College Bats are a Mess

This class is characterized by depth over impact talent. There are a number of quality college bats in the top 40 or so, but many have performed unevenly to date in 2026. No one is more emblematic of this than Justin Lebron, who is hitting .264 and has a remarkably poor 101 wRC+ at the time of writing. Many of the hitters in the 5-15 range have been hurt (Tyler Bell, Chris Hacopian), or performed unevenly (Ace Reese, Drew Burress, Sawyer Strosnider). In general, the hit tools on the college side have performed more poorly than expected. There are 8 players with composite rankings between 8th overall and 12th overall (and similar bunching throughout the top 50), which is generally an indicator that the industry doesn’t quite know how to untangle a particular cluster of prospects.

The Second Tier of College Arms has Established Itself

Entering the season Cam Flukey, Jackson Flora, and Liam Peterson were the trio of college pitchers expected to rise up board. Only Flora has. Flukey just returned from an 8 week absence due to injury. It’s a testament to how he’s viewed that he’s still ranked 10th by consensus. Peterson has shown flashes of dominance but also has a walk rate close to 12%, which may scare some teams off at the top of the first round.

There are always college arms who rise, and 2026 is no different. UCLA right Logan Reddemann (currently dealing with arm fatigue) has a 2.75 FIP, 35.7 K%, and a stingy 4.7 BB% in 2026; he’s up to 14th. Ole’ Miss righty Cade Townsend has an incredible arsenal on which to draw; he’s jumped up significantly on May boards. Lefties Cole Carlon, Mason Edwards, and Hunter Dietz, in addition to Tennessee right Tegan Kuhns, make up the second tier of college pitching. I’d expect all of those guys to be gone by pick 35.

High School Pitching is Incredibly Deep

2026 might be the deepest class of high school pitching I’ve covered. While there’s no name at the top of the board, the caliber of Seth Hernandez from 2025, there’s high-octane arm talent throughout the top 100. The left-handed group is particularly impressive. After Gio Rojas, Logan Schmidt, Jared Grindlinger, and Carson Bolemon, Brady Bumila, a southpaw out of Mass who throws 100 mph, has jumped into first-round contention. This class is particularly rich in the 30-50 range, and I’d expect a number of additional names (Jensen Hirschkorn, Colemon Borthwick, Kaden Waechter, and Joseph Contreras, to name a few) to be selected in the comp rounds. 2026 is the furthest down the board I can remember seeing prospects touching the high-90s-to-triple digits. It’s an impressive group.

Check out our 2026 mock draft board, updated regularly, and with detailed player write-ups!

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