American League East Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are coming off their most successful season in over three decades, winning 94 regular-season games, the American League East, the American League Pennant, and getting as close to winning the World Series as a team could get without actually winning it. Of course, that last detail looms large over the upcoming 2026 campaign. There’s some unfinished business in Toronto.

Blue Jays’ Notable Offseason Moves

The Blue Jays had a sneakily poor starting rotation last season, accruing just 8.5 fWAR from starters. That was the 23rd-best mark in baseball.

General manager Ross Atkins made a point to address that early, signing arguably the top starting pitcher on the market, Dylan Cease, to a seven-year, $210 million deal in December. The deal turned out to be the largest free agent contract given to a starting pitcher throughout the winter, and Cease is coming off of a 2025 where his 4.55 ERA was far from reflective of his true talent, but the Blue Jays are very excited about the upside his 97 MPH fastball and nearly 30% strikeout rate will bring to their rotation.

Toronto further addressed its starting rotation by bringing in Cody Ponce on a three-year, $30 million deal. Ponce hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2021, but he tossed a 1.89 ERA across 180 2/3 innings in Korea’s KBO last season, earning himself the league's Cy Young equivalent and the league’s MVP. Ponce is supposedly comfortable starting or coming out of the bullpen in a bulk role, but will have some runway to start early in the season as the Blue Jays deal with some injuries in the rotation.

The last major pitching staff acquisition was bringing in submarine right-handed reliever Tyler Rogers on a three-year contract. Rogers brings over an elite run of results, including a 2.71 ERA since 2021. He’s consistently among the league leaders in producing soft contact, groundballs, and limiting walks. He won’t miss many bats, but he’ll miss a lot of barrels.

The Jays put together a very strong offseason on the pitching side, helping to ease the blow of losing Chris Bassitt and Seranthony Domínguez.

The major loss on the position-player side was longtime shortstop Bo Bichette joining the New York Mets to play third base, but the Jays are happy to replace him with Kazuma Okamoto. The hope is that he can replicate the very successful career he’s had in Japan’s NPB. The Jays signed the Japanese third baseman to a four-year, $60 million contract to provide some offensive punch, and ZiPS projects him to put up a 121 wRC+ in his rookie season– the exact same as it projects Bichette.

The final notable acquisition came in spring training, shortly after the news of Anthony Santander’s shoulder surgery. The Jays bought low on Jesús Sánchez, shipping Joey Loperfido to Houston. Sánchez will provide some pop against right-handed pitching.

Projected Blue Jays Lineup (FanGraphs: Roster Resource)

1. George Springer, DH
2. Daulton Varsho, CF
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Addison Barger, RF
5. Alejandro Kirk, C
6. Jesús Sánchez, LF
7. Kazuma Okamoto, 3B
8. Ernie Clement, 2B
9. Andrés Giménez, SS

Blue Jays Bench

1. Tyler Heineman, C
2. Davis Schneider, UTIL
3. Nathan Lukes, OF
4. Myles Straw, CF

You’re going to see dozens and dozens of variations of these names as manager John Schneider mixes and matches based on platoons and matchups to put his players in the best position to succeed.

The leadoff spot will belong to the primary designated hitter, George Springer, who’s coming off a late-career renaissance in which he picked up down-ballot MVP votes. Nobody is expecting him to quite replicate his career-best 166 wRC+ from 2025, but a strong offensive season would go a long way towards helping his team back to the top of the American League East.

Left-handed hitting outfielders Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger are both coming off impressive 2025 seasons, and both offer some elite power upside. The Jays are asking more of them than they did last year, and they’ll be wreaking havoc close to the top of the order against right-handed pitching. 

Alejandro Kirk’s comeback in 2025 (116 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR) was vital to the Jays in 2025, and they’re expecting another big year from him in the middle of the lineup.

Kazuma Okamoto is a relative question mark given that he’s never played in MLB, but he’s never put up an OPS lower than .800 in eight NPB seasons, and he has 25 homer potential if he’s able to adjust quickly.

Jesús Sánchez is the other new face, and he also projects to be an above-average hitter. He’ll play almost exclusively against right-handed pitchers, which should help him to get back to the success he had in Miami before spending the second half of 2025 flailing to a .611 OPS in Houston.

Ernie Clement and André Giménez will make up one of the more elite defensive middle infields in baseball and provide high contact rates at the bottom of the order. 

Of course, the lineup will succeed and fail with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the three-hole. An elite Vladdy season– which, based on his playoff run and WBC performance, looks like a lock– will almost certainly lead to an elite Blue Jays lineup. 

Projected Blue Jays Rotation

1. Kevin Gausman, RHP
2. Dylan Cease, RHP
3. Eric Lauer, LHP
4. Cody Ponce, RHP
5. Max Scherzer, RHP

The Jays have much higher hopes for this rotation than the one they used last season. Gausman and Cease should be a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Eric Lauer is coming off an awesome 2025 (3.18 ERA) and is a great option to fill in while the Jays wait for reinforcements. Ponce is a relative unknown, but the upside he showed in Korea is undeniable, and Max Scherzer seems to have put all of his thumb issues from 2025 behind him.

With Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos all starting the season on the IL, but supposedly not too far away from joining the team, the Blue Jays are flush with options in the rotation. Should everyone get healthy at the same time, the starting five will be overflowing with talent, and we may see the Jays get creative with piggy-back roles, a six-man rotation, or even a potential mid-season trade.

The Verdict

The Blue Jays addressed their biggest weakness by filling out their starting rotation with high-upside arms, but if the Jays are going to repeat as AL East champs, it’s going to come down to the offense. If Kazuma Okamoto, a step forward from Addison Barger, and a full season of Daulton Varsho can make up for the loss of Bichette, the Jays will be running back a top-five offense in baseball. 

The Jays are carrying momentum into 2026 not seen in Toronto since their first championship in 1992, and they look like one of the scarier teams in baseball.