MLB Playoff Power Rankings: Nobody Knows What Happens Next

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Playoff baseball is different. The regular season gives us 162 games to figure out which teams are good, which teams are bad, and which teams are somewhere in between. Then October arrives and throws most of that information out the window. A great regular-season team can get bounced in a few games. A team that limped into the postseason can suddenly catch fire. One bad pitch, one unexpected injury, or one hot hitter can completely change the direction of a series.

That makes these playoff power rankings particularly difficult. There are teams with obvious strengths and glaring weaknesses. There are teams built for October and teams hoping their regular-season success carries over. There are also a few teams that nobody expected to be here.

Clayton Davenport's Adjusted Standings

Before getting into the rankings, it is worth looking at Clayton Davenport's adjusted standings. Davenport's system attempts to strip away some of the randomness of a team's actual record by looking at performance through a different lens. It provides another way to evaluate how teams have performed throughout the season and can help identify clubs whose records might not tell the entire story.

That is particularly useful heading into October. The standings don't determine what happens next. They simply provide another data point when trying to separate a dozen teams that all believe they have a legitimate chance to win the World Series. And that uncertainty is what makes the next month so much fun.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers– 95.1-59.4 (.616)

Why They Can Win the World Series: Los Angeles has won back-to-back titles and three championships since 2020. They are the team to beat come October, with depth at nearly every position and multiple future Hall of Fame players. There isn't another roster in baseball that combines star power and depth quite like the Dodgers.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Shohei Ohtani is dealing with right biceps discomfort and left knee soreness. The Dodgers have enough talent to survive injuries, but Ohtani is different. If their two-way superstar isn't healthy, can Los Angeles really complete the three-peat?

2. Milwaukee Brewers– 101.1-59.7 (.629)

Why They Can Win the World Series: Milwaukee won the most games during the regular season. Jacob Misiorowski has pitched at a level where it feels reasonable to call him the best pitcher on the planet. Add in an elite defense, and the Brewers have the formula to frustrate opponents throughout October.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Milwaukee's small-ball offensive style hasn't been as successful in October. Against elite starting pitchers and shutdown bullpens, eventually somebody has to hit the ball over the fence. Can the Brewers buck that trend?

3. Chicago Cubs– 93.6-67.3 (.582)

Why They Can Win the World Series: Pete Crow-Armstrong is the frontrunner for the NL MVP after capping off MLB's seventh 40-40 season. That kind of production gives Chicago a legitimate offensive centerpiece entering October.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: The Cubs will be playing on the road throughout October, and they've shown flaws up and down their pitching staff. Eventually, those weaknesses can become magnified when every game carries significantly more weight.

4. Tampa Bay Rays– 93.4-67.5 (.580)
Why They Can Win the World Series: Tampa Bay has been the AL's best team for most of the season and survived the gauntlet that is the AL East. Junior Caminero is only 22 years old, and October could be his coming-out party.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Outside of Caminero, there isn't a lot to write home about offensively. The Rays have found ways to win all season, but their bullpen could also show some cracks once the postseason pressure arrives.

5. New York Yankees– 93.3-67.6 (.580)
Why They Can Win the World Series: Cam Schlittler has pitched at a level where some are wondering if he belongs in the AL MVP conversation. The American League is wide open, but somebody has to win the pennant. The Yankees have enough star power and pitching to take advantage of an open field.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Aaron Judge has battled injuries throughout the season, and there are questions about whether he will be able to play in the playoffs. Can the Yankees continue winning without the biggest bat in their lineup?

6. Boston Red Sox– 88.6-72.3 (.551)

Why They Can Win the World Series: The Red Sox are the first team in MLB history to finish above .500 and reach the postseason after losing as many as 46 of their first 78 games. They climbed from 14 games under .500 to 14 games above .500 in just 62 days. That's one heck of a turnaround.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Sonny Gray has been the team's ace this season, but the 36-year-old has had inconsistent performances in his last two postseasons with the Yankees and Twins. Boston will need more than one dependable starter if it wants to survive multiple rounds.

7. Atlanta Braves– 85.1-75.8 (.529)
Why They Can Win the World Series: Chris Sale has been a revelation during his age-37 season and has put himself into the Cy Young conversation. A healthy and effective Sale gives Atlanta a legitimate ace capable of dominating a playoff series.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: The Braves have hovered around .500 in September, so they aren't exactly bursting into October. They've also been streaky all season. April featured a winning percentage above .700, while June saw Atlanta post a .391 winning percentage. Which version shows up in October?

8. San Diego Padres– 83.0-78.0 (.516)

Why They Can Win the World Series: San Diego has been on a heater in the second half, posting a winning percentage north of .600. It also helps to have Mason Miller at the back end of arguably the NL's best bullpen. If the Padres can get games to Miller with a lead, things can get uncomfortable for opposing lineups.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: The veteran bats might be reaching the over-the-hill point. Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado have both hovered around a 100 wRC+ in the second half. Do the Padres have enough offense to get the game to their bullpen with a lead?

9. Cleveland Guardians– 80.3-80.7 (.499)
Why They Can Win the World Series: Cleveland always seems to find a way to win. The Guardians have been one of the AL's hottest teams in September, posting a .652 winning percentage to take over the AL Central. Their reward is a first-round bye and one series standing between them and the ALCS.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Jose Ramirez hasn't been playing at an MVP level this season after dealing with injuries. The bullpen has also shown some flaws. Can Cleveland ride its September hot streak deep into October?

10. Philadelphia Phillies– 79.3-81.7 (.493)
Why They Can Win the World Series: The Phillies have the stars in Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Christopher Sanchez has also pitched at an otherworldly level as part of arguably the NL's best rotation. It also doesn't hurt to have Jhoan Duran closing down games.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: Father Time is undefeated, and this core might be past its prime. J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner have struggled this season. The Phillies have been building toward this moment for years. Can they finally bring one championship to Philadelphia before this group is done?

11. Chicago White Sox– 80.5-80.5 (.500)
Why They Can Win the World Series: They have the Pope on their side, so maybe there is some divine intervention coming to Chicago. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas all hit 30-plus homers to lead the South Siders. There is enough young offensive talent to make things interesting.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: The White Sox are a little ahead of their expected winning window, as few people thought they would be in contention this season. They also fell out of the AL Central lead during the final weeks. Maybe they can find some October luck from above.

12. Houston Astros– 75.1-86.0 (.466)
Why They Can Win the World Series: Records start over in October, and Astros fans have to be thankful for that. Anything can happen once the postseason begins. All it takes is one hot series from Yordan Alvarez, the AL MVP frontrunner.

Why They Can't Win the World Series: The AL West was essentially a pillow fight until the end, with neither the Rangers nor Astros able to take firm control of the division. The Astros are near the end of their reign as an AL powerhouse and enter October as one of the more vulnerable playoff teams in recent memory.

October Doesn't Care About the Regular Season

That's the beauty of playoff baseball. The Dodgers can win 100-plus games and still lose a series. The Brewers can lead baseball in wins and suddenly discover that a few singles don't score as easily against an elite October bullpen. A young player can become a postseason legend overnight.

There are legitimate questions surrounding every team on this list. That's what makes ranking them so difficult. And that's also what makes October so much fun.

The regular season tells us what these teams have done. The playoffs will tell us what they do when everything is on the line. For the next month, nobody really knows.

How would you rank the playoff teams? Leave a comment and start the discussion.