Gregory Spicer

Absolutely, but that's just the headline. Not every pitcher has his analytics. Of all inconsistent pitchers in baseball, Cease projects to figure out out more then any of them. That's why I dove so far into the analytics

Image courtesy of © Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images Part of baseball's beauty lies in its unpredictability. No other league has more surprise All-Stars and unexpected heroes than MLB. On the other end of this dynamic, baseball’s biggest names can still have down seasons. The variety of the sport is fun for fans, but leaves front offices with the difficult job of evaluating how much to pay these athletes. No player encompasses this situation over the 2025-2026 offseason more than Dylan Cease. The free-agent starting pitcher is known for his electric fastball, tight off-speed, and consistent health. Despite his reputation, Cease is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career—production-wise. 2025 Stats: 32 GS 8-12 Record 168 IP 4.55 ERA 3.4 FanGraphs WAR His “stuff” was still there, but ultimately, Cease struggled to put together productive outings consistently. Coming off a down year, some teams may be hesitant to pay him. I, however, believe he has an arm worth investing in. I’m not saying teams should sign Cease to be their long-term ace. That would be a questionable investment given his season-to-season streakiness. The Padres starter has alternated between mediocre and elite production over the last five years. 2021 White Sox: 3.91 ERA / 165.2 IP 2022 White Sox: 2.20 ERA / 184 IP 2023 White Sox: 4.58 ERA / 177 IP 2024 Padres: 3.47 ERA / 189.1 IP 2025 Padres: 4.55 ERA / 168 IP At first glance, these numbers can be concerning. Looking deeper, however, Cease has suffered from bad luck. His 2025 campaign was one of the unluckiest I’ve seen in recent memory. Nearly every advanced metric from the season supports him as an elite starter: 3.56 FIP 3.56 xFIP 3.46 xERA .320 BABIP .216 xBA (Statcast) These stats tell the story of a pitcher fighting against the baseball gods, with the .320 BABIP being especially difficult to work around. However, Cease has battled BABIP issues throughout his career. Look at the seasons listed above - showing his fluctuation between dominance and mediocrity - then compare them with his BABIPs over those same years: 2021: .309 2022: .260 2023: .330 2024: .263 2025: .320 The correlation is obvious. If a team can put together a strategy to induce more weakly hit contact or contact that finds a fielder's glove, or if he joins a team with strong defense (the Padres ranked 20th in MLB defensive WAR in 2025), Cease could find consistency. Genuine hope for a turnaround isn’t the only reason teams will have their eye on Cease. His floor as a starter is still high, even if he can’t completely figure out his streakiness. If you haven’t already noticed from the numbers above, he’s an iron horse. Cease stays healthy, eats innings, and brings his dominant arsenal to every outing. His 162 starts and 884 innings pitched since 2021 rank first and seventh in baseball, respectively. During these starts, he attacks hitters with a lethal combination of power and deception. He threw his fastball 41% of the time in 2025, averaging 97.1 mph. That's 2.1 mph higher than the MLB average. He matches the heater with a slider, also thrown 41% of the time, averaging 89.1 mph. That’s 2.5 mph faster than the league average, with a 42.8% whiff rate. Those are his two primary pitches, but Cease also mixed in a decent knuckle curveball. It’s not as effective as his other pitches (.339 xwOBA), but it still averaged 15.6 inches of drop. Whichever team signs Cease should look to improve this pitch and help him add more depth to his arsenal. 2025 Cease Overall Strikeout Stats: 29.8 K% / 9.8 BB% 33.4% Whiff Rate (95th Percentile) Now that we've established the type of pitcher Cease is, let's take a look at who should be opening up the checkbook. As stated earlier, teams in need of a franchise-leading ace should look elsewhere. Unless you’re spending on a budget, Cease’s abilities project better as a #2 or #3. His $150+ million expected deal is expensive for a non-ace, but that’s the kind of salary commitment required to compete with teams like the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays. San Diego Padres Cease has only spent two years in San Diego - why not keep it going? Considering his roller-coaster career pattern, Cease is due for a monster 2026 season. He loves the city, and the Padres should reap the rewards for sticking with him through a subpar 2025. Their rotation already lacked quality, even with Cease. Fellow starter Yu Darvish has announced surgery that will keep him out for all of 2026, and it’s bold to bank on Nick Pivetta being as dominant as he was last season. The return of Joe Musgrove will help, and hopefully Michael King can stay healthy, but without Cease, the rotation outlook for San Diego is bleak: #1 Nick Pivetta #2 Michael King #3 Dylan Cease* #4 Joe Musgrove #5 Randy Vasquez / Mason Miller* / JP Sears Chicago Cubs This would be an awkward reunion, but the fit is undeniable. In 2017, the Cubs traded a package that included Cease to the White Sox for former All-Star José Quintana. With the North Side ready to compete for championships again, Cease would fit nicely as their #3. Japanese star Shota Imanaga probably won’t re-sign (ironically, he’s featured in Padres rumors), and Cease would be an ideal replacement. Imanaga is a lefty, but the Cubs already have two southpaws in All-Star Matthew Boyd and former ace Justin Steele, who is set to return in 2026. If they get a deal done, the Cubs’ rotation would be one of the best in MLB. A balance of lefties and righties, veterans and youth, power and finesse: #1 Cade Horton #2 Matthew Boyd #3 Dylan Cease* #4 Justin Steele #5 Jameson Taillon Boston Red Sox Why not make the White Sox your farm system? After all, the teams basically share the same name. Following a season where Boston’s rotation was led by phenom Garrett Crochet and a resurging Lucas Giolito (both former White Sox), the Red Sox have a chance to do something really funny. Crochet and Brayan Bello will lead the rotation, but the rest of their depth is undecided. They declined to give Giolito a qualifying offer so that he could be gone, and Tanner Houck is out for 2026. Adding Cease would bring stability to a questionable group of pitchers. The Red Sox surprised a lot of people last season. Despite trading their franchise player, Rafael Devers, they won 89 games and made the playoffs. Boston is a huge market, and the fans deserve ownership that will invest in this roster. Paying Cease would be a step in the right direction. #1 Garrett Crochet #2 Brayan Bello #3 Dylan Cease #4 / #5 Lucas Giolito* / Payton Tolle / Connelly Early / Kutter Crawford Milwaukee Brewers This is a sleeper pick, but the fit is great. There’s no team I would trust more to help him fix his consistency issues, and the Dodgers exposed their starting pitching depth in the playoffs. The Brewers don’t necessarily lack pitching. Ace Freddy Peralta was excellent last season, making the All-Star Game and leading the NL in wins. Young arms Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester also found success. They also extended the qualifying offer to star pitcher Brandon Woodruff, who was excellent when healthy. Cease would come in and replace José Quintana, whom the Brewers elected not to bring back despite a solid 2025 campaign. This replacement would solidify their rotation in a similar way to the Cubs’ hypothetical. Cease brings a certified innings-eater to a rotation already filled with young talent and veteran star power. #1 Freddy Peralta #2 Quinn Priester #3 Dylan Cease* #4 Brandon Woodruff* #5 Jacob Misiorowski Blue Jays Finally, we have the Blue Jays. After coming up just one game short of a championship, the Toronto squad will surely be looking to add talent. Similar to the Brewers, the Jays don’t lack pitching. They already have an excellent staff that has performed well enough to put them one scoreless inning away from the World Series. That, however, is why Cease will fit so well. He won’t be overrelied upon for game one starts or short-rest outings. Instead, he can continue to focus on health and consistency. Cease would likely replace Max Scherzer in the rotation. The future Hall-of-Fame had a down year in 2025, and Cease would be a big regular-season upgrade. On one hand, this deal is unlikely because the Jays still have so much pitching. Their top four spots are locked in, and they still have the option to bring back Chris Bassitt or give the final spot to Eric Lauer, who was dominant last season. On the other hand, Toronto is one of the highest spending teams in MLB, and you can never count them out in free agency: #1 Kevin Gausman #2 Trey Yesavage #3 Shane Bieber #4 Dylan Cease #5 Jose Berrios Regardless of who picks him up, Cease is a bet worth making. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Phillies, Braves, and Mets are other potential suitors. View full article