Leo Morgenstern

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Neither Canada nor Colombia has ever advanced past the first round of the World Baseball Classic. Heading into play today in San Juan, both teams knew that whoever won this contest would significantly improve their chances of finally escaping pool play. In 2017, Canada and Colombia were in a pool with the Dominican Republic and the USA. Canada finished 0-3, while Colombia's only victory was a 4-1 win over the Canadians. In 2023, it was the USA and Mexico who ultimately sent Canada and Colombia (and Great Britain) packing, although this time, Canada beat Colombia in their head-to-head matchup, taking the game 5-0. This year, things could be different. Canada and Colombia don't have to contend with powerhouse teams like the DR, the USA, and Mexico. A depleted Puerto Rico squad is still the favorite – they beat Colombia 5-0 on Friday – but it was anyone's guess who might be the second-best team in this group, and both Canada and Colombia were hoping to make their case. On Saturday, Team Canada beat Team Colombia 8-2, moving one step closer to a quarterfinal berth. The Canadians looked like the stronger team all day, though they didn't fully take control until the eighth. Owen Caissie kicked off the scoring with a 403-foot home run in the second inning, driving in Abraham Toro. The Burlington, Ontario product sent the ball right into a Canadian flag in the stands and celebrated with some colorful commentary. As the broadcast camera followed him into the dugout, his words were unmistakable: "F**k... Oh, he hung the s**t out of it." The "he" in this context was Team Colombia starter Austin Bergner, who was perhaps a little out of his element against the Team Canada lineup. Thirteen-year MLB veteran Julio Teheran was supposed to take the ball, but he was scratched as a precaution due to a right shoulder impingement. Career minor leaguer Austin Bergner took the ball instead, and although he had his moments – he struck out Josh Naylor swinging – Toro and Caissie got the better of him to give Canada an early lead. Toro kept the scoring going in the third, driving in Josh Naylor with an RBI walk that would prove to be the winning run. The elder Naylor brother added an RBI single in the seventh, driving in his cousin Denzel Clarke, while Toro ignited Canada's eighth-inning rally with an RBI triple to make it 5-2. The Canadians would go on to score three more runs in the eighth. By the end of the inning, everyone in the starting lineup had contributed to the offensive effort. Caissie, Toro, and Naylor were the standout performers, but this was a team effort through and through. To that point, the pitchers also did their part. Michael Soroka got the start and threw 54 pitches (30 strikes) over three innings, giving up one run. Mariners prospect Michael Arroyo seemed to have his number, knocking two hits to right field, including an RBI single in the second, but Soroka did what he needed to do. So did the bullpen, which held Colombia's lineup to two hits and one run over six innings, striking out seven. Noah Skirrow threw three scoreless frames, Eric Cerantola came up clutch with a big strikeout of Gio Urshela, and Phillippe Aumont closed things out with a strikeout of his own. On the defensive side of things, Bo Naylor caught a pair of runners stealing, and there were some good plays at the plate, but it was the miscues that were most memorable. Arroyo was able to score on a Harold Ramírez double in the eighth, despite falling over multiple times on his way to the plate, because center fielder Clarke overthrew the cutoff man. At the time, it seemed like that could be a pivotal play, as Colombia brought the score to 4-2. Then, with one out in the top of the ninth (and Canada now up 8-2), a Daniel Vellojin pop-up to shallow center seemed to bounce off both of Otto Lopez's and Clarke's gloves – but Canada still got the out when Vellojin pushed his luck and tried to reach second base. Indeed, there were some poor baserunning decisions on both sides in this one, but at the end of the day, there was no need for either team to sweat the small stuff. Canada entered the 2026 WBC with a bang, thoroughly stomping Colombia by six runs. Top Five Plays by Win Probability Added The following five plays led to the biggest swings in win probability during today's game: Play WP Shift Owen Caissie homers, Abraham Toro scores 18.5% Abraham Toro walks, Josh Naylor scores 9.0% Harold Ramírez doubles, Michael Arroyo scores 8.8% Michael Arroyo singles, Tito Polo scores 8.3% Eric Cerantola strikes out Gio Urshela 7.3% Data via Baseball Savant Canada couldn't have asked for a better way to start their tournament. Next up is what should be a slightly easier matchup against Panama on Sunday, before an off day on Monday and games against Puerto Rico and Cuba next week. As for Colombia, their final two games against Cuba and Panama will be must-wins, and they'll have to score as much as they can in case their fate comes down to a tiebreaker. To make things harder for the Colombians, they don't have an off day in their schedule, and they've already used a lot of pitchers (including ace Jose Quintana) over their first two games. 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