Age Concerns, Statistical Decline, & Groundballs: Evaluating Framber Valdez’s Free Agent Market

Left-hander Framber Valdez is exploring free agency for the first time in his career. Valdez is one of the best starters on the free agent market, but he won’t come without some concerns for those who sign him.

Valdez's Career Thus Far
Valdez debuted for the Astros in 2018 and quickly developed into one of Houston’s most dependable arms. A classic big-game pitcher during the Astros’ run of American League dominance, Valdez has been no stranger to the postseason spotlight — although his playoff results have been uneven compared to his regular-season success. From 2022 to 2024, he was one of the more consistent starters in baseball, posting a 3.28 FIP, holding opponents to a .286 wOBA, and allowing just a .290 xwOBA, showcasing his ability to limit hard contact while generating elite ground-ball rates, peaking with a 70.4% groundball rate in 2021. During that stretch, he logged back-to-back 180+ inning seasons and continued to anchor Houston’s rotation with his sinker/curveball-heavy arsenal.

However, Valdez has been on a downward trend recently, and 2025 marked his worst season since 2021. His command wavered, his walk rate ticked up, and hitters squared him up more often. Valdez finished the year with a 4.12 FIP, a sharp jump from his peak form, while opponents posted a .324 wOBA against him. Even more concerning, his .338 xwOBA allowed indicated that the contact quality he surrendered was even worse than the surface results suggested. The sinker wasn’t generating the same depth, his curveball lacked its usual bite, and his overall groundball rate (59.4%) dipped to its lowest point in four seasons. 

Valdez also has on-field controversy surrounding him, which was highlighted during a game this season. With the bases loaded and two outs against the Yankees in September, Valdez was struggling in the start. Trent Grisham stepped up to the plate, and the catcher, Cesar Salazar, tried to get Valdez to step off the mound for a talk. Valdez did not listen, and he gave up a back-breaking grand slam. On the next pitch, Valdez crossed up his catcher, creating confusion. While the two reconciled after the game and blamed the incident on PitchCom confusion, the tension in the moment was obvious. 

Valdez Contract Projections 
Valdez is the top left-hander on the market, and ESPN projected him to earn a contract of 6 years and approximately $168 million, or roughly $28 million per year. When it comes to possible landing spots, several clubs appear poised to pursue Valdez. The main teams that seem to be involved for Valdez’s services include the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, and Cubs.

Valdez's contract will likely be limited by his age. He is turning 32 years old later this month, and his turn downward in 2025 could be a concern for interested teams.

Of those teams, I see the Blue Jays as the best fit. Adding a lefty to the Toronto rotation should be a goal for the Jays, and Valdez is the best one on the market. Valdez has experience pitching in the American League and against the AL East teams in the biggest spots. Toronto’s biggest need this offseason is a starter, and Valdez seems like the perfect fit, especially with the great Toronto defense behind him.