DiamondCentric's Updated Top 40 MLB Free Agents, Plus Contract Projections

It's been a slow but steady winter thus far. At the close of MLB's Winter Meetings, we've already seen 11 of our initial top 50 free agents signed. Accordingly, we've pared down the list we created in mid-November, and here, we present the best 40 players remaining on the market, according to our panel of experts from across the network of sites that make up the DiamondCentric baseball universe. Here are our breakdowns of the players who remain available, along with (unchanged) projections of what they'll earn.

There's little debate about Tucker's supremacy within this class, if only because the top of the class is not especially strong. He had a strange season in 2025, after being dealt from the Astros to the Cubs last winter. When he's right, though, few hitters blend command of the strike zone with the ability to be dangerous to all fields the way Tucker does. Two straight campaigns stained by injuries have eliminated any chance that he would make $500 million, but he's comfortably in the next tier—a star still in his prime, hitting free agency with a chance to sign a decade-long megadeal.

Projected Contract: 10 years, $360 million

In a mild surprise, Bichette was the consensus choice of our panel as the second-best player in this class. He belongs to a mélange of players with All-Star upside, but who have either glaring warts or troublingly poor seasons in their recent history. In Bichette's case, it's both of the latter. He's no longer a capable shortstop, and the knee injury that cost him all but the final round of the Blue Jays' postseason run can't be fully blamed for the way his sprint speed plunged; he'd lost a step even before that.

On the other hand, Bichette is as good a bet to hit a well-rounded .300 as just about anyone in baseball. Despite his below-average bat speed, he hits hard line drives with regularity, and he improved his plate discipline in 2025. Even as a bat-first second baseman, that will be a valuable profile.

Projected Contract: 7 years, $175 million

If you're the type to take contracts at face value, it might have shocked you when Bregman opted out of (technically) two years and $80 million to reenter the marketplace, roughly nine months after signing with the Red Sox. In reality, huge deferrals cut down the value of that deal, and without the qualifying offer attached to him, he should be able to beat that deal this winter.

That's not to say that Bregman will sign an especially long-term deal. Now, though, he's in position to get the kind of long-term security he eschewed last winter. Though he missed time with a quad strain and wasn't as good after he returned from it, Bregman still profiles as a highly productive hitter and an adequate defender for the foreseeable future.

Projected Contract: 5 years, $165 million

It's a bit of an upset to find Imai nipping at Cease's heels. On some of our individual lists, he was the top arm listed. Fascinatingly, as he prepares to come to the States, Imai brings with him what looks like a surefire plus slider, rather than (as many Japanese aces do) leaning heavily on the splitter. His velocity will settle in around the league average once he comes to the U.S., but he profiles as a plus-command, plus-stuff guy with excellent pitchability. He made much-needed strides this season toward finding the changeup that will consistently work for him.

Projected Contract: 6 years, $150 million (plus roughly $23 million in posting fee)

His walk year was not as confidence-inspiring as Valdez might have liked, and will be remembered mostly for the way he appeared to target his own catcher for a cross-up after giving up a home run. However, his heavy sinker is still one of the game's dominant offerings, and his unusually high arm slot for that two-seamer sets up his curveball gorgeously. Valdez is older than you might guess, and he'll have to make some adjustments as his velocity begins to fade, but for now, he's a frontline lefty starter.

Projected Contract: 5 years, $150 million

The move from Wrigley Field to Yankee Stadium was great for Bellinger's numbers, and the Yankees' handling of him (playing him in the corner outfield spots, where he belongs, and boosting his bat speed through better coaching) genuinely elevated his game. The injuries that took him off a superstar trajectory (and the poor play that came with them, leading the Dodgers to non-tender him three years ago) are still relevant, because he's shown neither the knack for avoiding them nor the ability to play well through them. Nonetheless, he's a well-rounded, dynamic player.

Projected Contract: 6 years, $130 million

Durability comes in many forms. Cease offers a very traditional version of it: he takes the ball every fifth day and the only questions are about when you'll have to go get him. By contrast, Suárez's career has been pockmarked by injuries, each of them taking him out for chunks of time. He spent time on the injured list with back issues in 2022, 2024 and 2025, and elbow and hamstring trouble in 2023. Yet, he healed well each time, and made at least 22 starts in all four of those seasons. When he does toe the rubber, he's very capable of working deep into games; he averaged 6.1 innings per start in 2025. His heavy sinker and superb command make Suárez reliably excellent. It's just going to be for 130-160 innings in a good year, rather than 190.

Projected Contract: 5 years, $110 million

The only left-handed hitter with more pop than Murakami can offer teams this winter is Schwarber. That's raw power, though, and a very different thing from applicable game power. Even in a league with a considerably lower replacement level in terms of sheer stuff and a lower average strikeout rate, Murakami has fanned in roughly 29 percent of his plate appearances over the last three seasons. There's a real chance that his offensive profile savors more of Joey Gallo than of Schwarber, in the States, and unlike Gallo, the stocky Murakami is unlikely to have much defensive value even in the second half of his 20s. Nonetheless, that power will tantalize someone, and his youth makes him a rare free agent, indeed.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $92 million (plus roughly $14 million in posting fee)

There's a clear separation between the tier that ends with Díaz and the one that begins here. King has flashed the ability to be a frontline starter, but too many injuries have plagued his career to instill much confidence in that outcome. Starting pitchers always become hot commodities in free agency. King, like several others in the segment we're moving into now, will be a beneficiary of the inflationary market for players who fit his profile. His stuff is essentially optimized; the only "unlock" left for interested teams is finding a way to keep him on the mound.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $75 million

It's a testament to the new mode of pitcher evaluation that Gallen is still in line for a hefty payday after a fairly lousy season. He did, however, take all 33 turns in the rotation and pile up innings impressively. He hasn't lost much off his fastball, though its shape has become a bit more ordinary. With just a few inches less relative cut on the heater and a bit less velocity on the curveball, he lost the ability to miss bats consistently in 2025. Many key indices, though, suggest he's still a frontline starter underneath the ugly surface-level numbers. He can generate good spin; achieves ample movement and velocity separation on his changeup; and still throws hard enough to be effective. In large part, Gallen just got unlucky in his walk year.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $75 million

Though some harbor real questions about how he can handle the velocity he'll often see in the States, Okamoto has a strong case to be even higher on this list. He lacks the sheen of unrealized potential that comes with Murakami's age, but he also brings a much stronger approach (and night-and-day better contact rates) to the table. Scouts and the data agree that while Murakami is a likely first baseman/DH, Okamoto has a real chance to stick at third for the first few years of his American career. He's a dead pull hitter who needs to land in a park conducive to righties who pull it in the air, but if he does so, he could be the steal of the winter. Were he one day younger, he'd be officially listed as 29 for 2026.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $68 million (plus roughly $10 million in posting fee)

To feel really good about a power-dependent righty batter in their mid-30s, you'd like to see high-end bat speed. Suárez doesn't have that. What he does have is an attacking approach that catches the ball way out in front, with a swing geared to lift the ball. After being traded back to Seattle in July, his scorching first half gave way to a frigid second. Nonetheless, the capacity for a power surge is very real with him. He's considerably older than Murakami or Okamoto, but a safer bet to crack 25 homers.

Projected Contract: 3 years, $55 million

Age and Williams's higher strikeout rate make him a slightly higher-upside signing, but Suarez—with a fastball he can crank up to 102 miles per hour and good enough command to consistently induce weak contact—offers teams a much higher floor. Before evolution invented strikeout nightmares like Williams, Suarez types were the very model of the star closer.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $36 million

The 2024 campaign was an aberration. Most of the time, since his return from a sojourn in the Pacific Rim, Kelly has been a workhorse. He's a crafty, kitchen-sink starter with excellent command and a feel for sequencing. With all three fastballs and a changeup he can manipulate to play well off any of them as the situation demands, he can even hunt a strikeout when he really needs one—though, if you bet too many times on a 37-year-old staying healthy and outperforming his raw stuff, you'll eventually get burned.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $36 million

With some focused changes and the fresh perspective (however hard-won) of a poor 2024 season, Bader had a terrific rebound in 2025. His sheer explosiveness was back, as you can see in his bat and sprint speeds. He got around on the ball more consistently, and a part-time move to left field restored his defensive excellence. Because the track record over the previous few years was much less impressive, though, teams will be somewhat wary of giving him a high AAV or a long-term deal

Projected Contract: 3 years, $33 million

Speaking of bat speed boosts and concomitant increases in production, Polanco's career appeared to be on life support last winter—only for him to creep into the top half of this list with a resurgent season at the plate, from both sides. He lacks defensive utility, because you can barely even play him at second base, but his improvements at bat were real. His hit-over-power offensive profile and lack of traditional slugger size might make some would-be suitors a bit uncomfortable; he's not the archetype of a designated hitter.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million

It came as a surprise when, after a transition to the bullpen in October, Bassitt became a legitimate late-inning weapon for the Blue Jays. He doesn't strike you as the type who will find extra velocity and start overpowering people as a result of working in short bursts, but that's what happened. Combine that unexpected bump with the durability he's demonstrated, and he probably went from being off tbis list to the top half of it over the final few months of the 2025 campaign.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $24 million

A consistently solid hitter with a good glove at first base, O'Hearn was traded from the Orioles to the Padres in July and was a staple in San Diego's lineup down the stretch. He's a well-rounded hitter and an above-average athlete for his position—although that athletic baseline has led too many teams to try to get away with playing him in the outfield. If he finds a home as a full-time first baseman or the strong side of a platoon at that spot, he should thrive for another couple of years.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $23 million

Injuries have derailed Kim's career, but the consolation prize is that he has a chance to be the best legitimate shortstop in this entire free-agent class. When right, he's a solid defender up the middle and has multiple ways to get to average as a hitter. Whether he can actually be right when needed is very much the question, as he enters free agency for the second consecutive year.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $28 million

Though he did yeoman's work for the Red Sox in 2025, Giolito comes with some red flags. His strikeout rate nosed downward in 2025, as he returned from Tommy John surgery. He's never been an elite command guy, and his raw stuff looks diminished. The changeup that once made him special is decidedly less valuable these days. Between the injury history and the performance trend, he's not someone any team will want to depend on in the front half of their rotation.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $24 million

A starter (and occasionally a long man, after he lost starting gigs) until 2025, Keller unlocked a level of stuff improvement no one saw coming in 2025. Offseason work at his training facility near Atlanta helped there, but the conversion to short relief cemented the surge. He still has a starter's arsenal depth, and some team might take an interest in him as a candidate to return to the rotation.

Projected Contract: 3 years, $30 million

The Rays declined an $11-million option on Fairbanks for 2025. Tampa is good at the due diligence calling when faced with a decision like that on a player, so the implication of their choice is that the rest of the league joined them in feeling uneasy about Fairbanks. Still, he's a hard-throwing righty with closer experience, who did a good job avoiding walks in 2025. Ideally, he's the second- or third-best arm in your bullpen, but if he's the third-best, you feel extremely good about that unit.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $25 million

Woefully underrated because he's so unorthodox, Rogers has been better than Helsley, Keller or Fairbanks. As you can see, they all rank ahead of him, anyway. Teams (and even our brilliant panelists) just can't shake the feeling that this will stop working any moment, now, or that they can find more value by signing the guy who throws 100 and teaching him to do something else a bit better. Rogers will have to satisfy himself with continuing to prove everyone wrong.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $21 million

It was a strange season for Martinez, who's approaching the practical minimum for strikeout rate from an effective pitcher. When right, he's exceptionally tough on right-handed batters, but that excellence is somewhat fragile. He has a deep repertoire, but no individual pitch that overwhelms batters. The second half of that sentence gets more important and more concerning as he enters the second half of his 30s.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $14 million

Realmuto is still a good athlete for a catcher, but that feels increasingly like a backhanded compliment. He's fallen off sharply at the plate recently. His bat speed sagged in 2025. Now in his mid-30s, Realmuto is in danger of becoming another in the long line of great catchers who aged very quickly.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $20 million

Mahle should almost be automatically awarded to the runner-up in the Giolito sweepstakes. He'd be a fine consolation prize for such a team, because anything you like about Giolito, you can convince yourself to like about Mahle. He's a poor man's Giolito because he has even worse health trouble than Giolito has had. Inducing lots of weak contact in the air is a dangerous way to live, too. So far, though, Mahle has been one of those healthy-when-good guys teams love to collect.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $14 million

Solid switch-hitting catchers are extremely hard to find. Caratini is the definition of a low-ceiling guy, but his positional and matchup value are not to be overlooked. He signed for $12 million over two years last time he was a free agent; he earned that and more during his time with the Astros.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15 million

As he settles into life as a first baseman, Arraez has actually become a relatively adept defender there. He's still a poor overall athlete, but he's learned to play well at the least demanding defensive position on the field. That's the good news. The bad news is that he's now traded every secondary skill he ever had for the One Weird Trick of never striking out, so he comes nowhere near meeting the offensive standard at first. The question, which he's likely to try to answer affirmatively on a one-year deal, is whether he can correct his course and regain some balance in the box.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $11 million

It was a quick fall from the heights for Weaver, who was the relief ace of the pennant-winning 2024 Yankees but not the same guy for most of 2025. Still, he throws a potent fastball-changeup combo, and he fills up the zone better than most relievers. For certain teams' models, he's going to pop as a potential bargain.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $16 million

It feels like we're just about done here, but Verlander refuses to walk away. That's fine. Some legends need to have the game tell them, in no uncertain terms, that they're done. That hasn't quite happened for Verlander yet, so he's going to keep pitching in 2025. He wasn't very helpful for the 2025 Giants, though, and he won't be much help to whichever team coughs up enough to engage him this winter, either.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

Domínguez had some rough moments in the postseason this fall, and his walk rate was much too high this year for a guy you hope to trust in high-leverage setup situations. Even these days, though, guys who throw 98 and throw four different pitches out of the pen are hard to come by. The challenge for whichever team signs him will be to get Domínguez to throw more strikes.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $16 million

Same story, different verse: Scherzer is two years Verlander's junior but at a similar stage in his career. He still has the ability to outcompete the other guys for a handful of innings a handful of times per year, but injury and inconsistency are likely to remain the defining characteristics of these final few years in his illustrious career.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million

An elite control artist whose two most frequent pitch types are slider and splitter? That seems almost unthinkable, but that's what Littell is. The unfortunate flip side is that if you're expecting the volume of strikeouts you normally get from a guy with a slider and a splitter he can throw for strikes and two different fastballs, you're going to be disappointed. After spending his first few big-league seasons in the bullpen, Littell has been surprisingly durable as a starter for two seasons. He should make more than the likes of Verlander or Scherzer, but that doesn't mean he will.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $20 million

Quietly, Yastrzemski has been a consistently useful outfielder for half a decade or so. He needs to be shielded from southpaws and he can't play center field for a team that takes run prevention seriously, but he's always a bit better than the general perception of him.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $9 million

Ozuna has been suspended for domestic violence. That makes him a suspect character to add to any clubhouse, and teams will be wary of signing him on that basis alone. He's also a lousy athlete and baserunner, which makes it hard to get excited about his medium-term future. He still rakes, though. He'll find a job, because when he steps into the box, he still rakes.

Eflin is an extreme pitch-to-contact starter in the age of the swing-and-miss approach. He limits walks, but doesn't strike people out and suffers for that when he's anything less than surgical on the mound. Durability is an essential part of his value, and he wasn't durable in 2025; he's likely to end up settling for a one-year deal.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7 million

Goldschimdt's demise has been a bit overstated. He's a long way from his former All-Star (even borderline Hall of Fame) peak, but Goldschmidt still has a good approach, a good swing, and a modicum of power. The only question about his value is whether he'll be comfortable with the part-time role in which he fits best at this stage.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $6 million

As with Ponce, temper your excitement as you review Duplantier's 2025 numbers; he accumulated them in Japan. He was truly dominant there, though. His fastball plays above its velocity, especially as he gets more comfortable mixing all the complements to that pitch in his arsenal. If he returns to the States, it will be on an under-the-radar deal, but he could be a steal.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $3.5 million

Hays is a wonderfully vivid player, when he's on the field. He hits from the front half of the batter's box, more than anyone in baseball. He makes consistently hard line-drive contact, and he's a sneakily good athlete (albeit not in center field; he must be confined to the corners). However, you have to make whatever looks you get at him last, because he misses time virtually every year due to strains in his hamstring and calf. Injury, rather than performance, is the limiting factor for him. It will keep him cheap, so some team willing to roll the dice that he'll be available come October should find a deal here.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $4 million

Bell made some significant changes at an improbable juncture of his long career, and although he didn't post huge raw numbers, it should make some suitors more optimistic about his viability as a bat-only contributor. A switch-hitter, Bell is a fine sixth hitter on a winning team—or a very nice middle-of-the-order stopgap and a trade candidate for a team mired in a rebuild.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5 million