How MLB Is Preparing Teams For A Lockout

Major League Baseball is preparing for a lockout. That does not mean the 2027 season will be lost. It does not even guarantee that a lockout will last more than a few weeks. What it does mean is that MLB has moved beyond simply preparing for labor negotiations and is now laying out detailed instructions for what clubs should do if those negotiations fail.

According to The Athletic's Evan Drellich, MLB sent a 34-page memo to owners and high-ranking team executives on October 1 detailing how clubs should operate during a potential lockout. MLB negotiator Dan Halem wrote that the league remains committed to exhausting every realistic option to reach an agreement with the Players Association, but he also made clear that clubs need to be prepared for the possibility of a work stoppage.

The current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on December 1. There appears to be little expectation that a new agreement will be completed before then, which means another offseason labor battle is becoming increasingly likely. And if a lockout does happen, MLB has already planned for what comes next.

The December 1 Deadline Is More Than a Deadline

There is nothing requiring MLB to shut down operations when the CBA expires. The league could allow offseason activity to continue while negotiations drag on. MLB has a strong reason not to do that.

A lockout gives the league control over the timing of the work stoppage and prevents the MLBPA from using a regular-season strike as leverage. That was the strategy used during the previous CBA negotiations, when MLB locked out players in December 2021.

The same basic scenario could play out again this winter. Once the lockout begins, virtually all business between clubs and players on the 40-man roster will stop. Teams will not be able to make trades or sign major league players, and normal communication between players and club personnel will be severely restricted. For an offseason that normally revolves around free agency, trades and roster construction, that would bring much of the sport to a standstill.

MLB Is Preparing for a Complete Separation

Some of the most revealing details from the memo concern what team employees can and cannot do with players during a lockout. The basic principle is separation.

Club officials are instructed to avoid players "to the greatest extent possible" because conversations that seem harmless can easily cross into prohibited business discussions. If a team employee happens to encounter a player in public, MLB advises that the employee should simply be cordial.

Even social events come with restrictions. Team personnel can attend a player's wedding during a lockout, but they cannot discuss baseball business while there. Holiday cards and gifts are another example. Teams can send them before the lockout begins, but doing so after December 1 would violate the league's guidelines. The league is also telling clubs that offseason workout plans can be distributed before the lockout, but not afterward.

These details might seem trivial on the surface, but they demonstrate how aggressively MLB expects to enforce the separation between players and teams. This would not simply be a pause in transactions. It would fundamentally alter how organizations operate.

The Rule 5 Draft Could Become an Early Casualty

One of the most important unresolved questions involves the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. The draft is scheduled for December, meaning it would occur after the CBA expires if a lockout begins. MLB canceled the major league Rule 5 draft during the 2021-22 lockout, and the league's latest guidance indicates that the status of this year's draft would have to be addressed during bargaining.

The MLBPA has already proposed moving the Rule 5 draft into late November during the final year of a CBA so that it would not be caught in another labor dispute. The union has a strong reason to push for that change. The Rule 5 draft creates opportunities for players on the fringes of organizations, particularly those who are not protected on 40-man rosters.

From MLB's perspective, though, the timing creates another potential bargaining chip. That means even a baseball-specific event that has nothing to do with the larger economic issues between the league and union could become part of the negotiations.

The minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft is different. Minor league players operate under a separate CBA, and those transactions will not be affected by the major league lockout.

MLB's Digital World Will Change, Too

The effects of a lockout would not be limited to transactions and communication. MLB plans to once again remove player images and videos from its official websites, mirroring the approach used during the 2021-22 lockout. Player photos would disappear from profile pages, videos would be removed, and player names and pictures would be taken out of article headlines. For fans checking team websites during the offseason, that could create a very different experience.

Interestingly, player merchandise would remain available because those products are covered by separate licensing arrangements, including agreements involving the players' union.

The league also will not prevent players from participating in other professional leagues during the lockout. Players could continue playing winter ball or potentially participate in leagues overseas, including Japan.

MLB is also preparing for disputes over player health and workers' compensation claims. Teams have been instructed to document interactions between players and medical staff near the end of the season so there is a record of whether disabling injuries existed before the lockout began.

What a Lockout Would Mean for Every Team

The biggest immediate impact would be on roster construction. Every organization enters the offseason with a list of needs. Some clubs need starting pitching. Others need bullpen help, a new catcher, more offense or better defensive depth. Teams normally address those needs through trades and free-agent signings throughout November, December and January.

A lockout could freeze all of that. Players on 40-man rosters would be off-limits for normal baseball business. Teams would not be able to negotiate new major league contracts, complete trades or work through the usual offseason roster moves. That could create an unusually compressed market once a new agreement is eventually reached.

Imagine dozens of teams entering the same period with months of unfinished business. Free agents who expected to sign in December could still be available. Clubs that expected to complete trades at the Winter Meetings could still have significant holes. Front offices could suddenly have only weeks to accomplish what they normally do across an entire offseason. That could make the eventual transaction period extremely active.

There are also competitive implications. Teams with more unfinished roster work could be at a disadvantage depending on how long the lockout lasts and how quickly transactions resume. Clubs with fewer holes may be better positioned simply because they have less work left to complete.

And then there is the financial impact. Teams continue preparing for the 2027 season as though it will proceed as scheduled. MLB has instructed ticket-sales personnel to communicate that the league remains optimistic about playing a full season, while also preparing to offer credits or refunds if games are ultimately canceled. Right now, MLB is preparing for a lockout without publicly conceding that the 2027 season is in danger.

The Calendar Will Determine How Serious This Gets

A December lockout would be disruptive, but it would not necessarily threaten the regular season. The longer it continues, however, the more serious the situation becomes.

If the two sides remain apart through January, the offseason becomes increasingly difficult to manage. A prolonged dispute into February could affect spring training preparations. By March, the conversation would shift toward Opening Day and whether there is enough time to prepare players and teams for a full season.

Eventually, the threat of missed games becomes the leverage. That is where both MLB and the MLBPA have the most to lose. The league risks losing ticket revenue, television inventory, sponsorship opportunities and fan momentum. Players risk losing games and salary while also facing uncertainty about when they will return to work.

That pressure ultimately should push both sides toward an agreement. The problem is that baseball has already shown how difficult these negotiations can become.

Baseball Fans Have Seen This Before

The last lockout lasted for months and eventually pushed back the start of spring training while threatening the beginning of the regular season. That history makes the current preparation impossible to ignore. MLB's message remains that it intends to reach a deal and expects the 2027 season to proceed. The memo even provides approved language for club employees telling fans that teams are operating as though the season will happen as planned.

That is the message MLB has to send. But the existence of a detailed 34-page lockout manual tells its own story. The league is preparing for the possibility that the December 1 deadline passes without an agreement. The Rule 5 draft could become part of the negotiations. Transactions could stop. Player communication with clubs could largely disappear. Team and league websites could again look dramatically different. And every organization could find its offseason plans frozen.

For now, baseball is still planning for 2027. But MLB is also planning for a world in which baseball cannot operate normally. That is why the next several weeks could be some of the most important of the entire offseason.

What stands out from the memo that was sent to MLB organizations? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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