bean5302

There is a 0.00% chance the owners cut teams. It's not in the realm of reasonability. Not only is MLB attempting to expand right now, but cutting 1/2 the teams would never pass voting by the owners themselves, and even if that happened, the ownership of the 50% of the remaining teams would have to come up with $30 billion of liquid assets to buy the current owners out. It's just not happening. Cut your market in 1/2, cut your revenue, cut your expansion plans, lose $30 billion in buyouts, gut the value of the teams which do still exist, eliminate any public interest in the game. Far more likely to see an 90s NFL style lockout with scrub players or the cancellation of an entire season if the owners are truly committed to breaking the MLBPA with a salary cap. Owners also want a floor, and probably more than players do. The profitable teams like the Dodgers and Yankees are furious at teams like the Rays. In fact, getting ousted from the playoffs with their own money has probably brought the Yankee's ownership fury to a head as the Yankees have been on public record about this for years. The Rays literally design their team to live off the free money the profitable teams produce in revenue sharing. That playoff exit has to be infuriating.

I think it's a major downside for everybody. It superficially sounds good. The top 2 teams who earned their spots are more likely to advance rather than be eliminated based on "luck" if you will. That said, choosing a team to play is fraught with emotional context. i.e. the Yankees want to play the Red Sox. Can the Red Sox are going to take that fuel and potentially come in on an emotional high? Also, it's disrespectful. For a game with historical ties to playing the game respectfully and tradition, it feels anti-baseball.

I don't think MLBPA cares about rules much besides being opposed to everything MLB submits because each proposal can be leveraged for bargaining to an extent. More playoff money means more bonus money for players. Getting paid the same for 154 games instead of 162 is probably a winner for the MLBPA, but the drawback is setting records. Though there is some advantage to that, too. Batting .400 would be more likely over 154 than 162.

Exchange Regular Season for Post-season - Maybe like it. Depends on trade deadlines, etc. Best of 7 Division Series - Like it. Choose who you play? - Don't like it.

Even at an equal number of innings pitched (if you increased Mis or decreased Sanchez) Baseball Reference values Sanchez higher. Again, nonsensical. The idea for WAR is how many wins did a player create vs. a AAA depth replacement option. Sanchez has been very good, but no team in baseball is taking him over Misiorowski. Misiorowski's expected results, actual results, and game by game actual results are all better than Sanchez.

I think this is just more of a sign that pitchers don't pitch as much as they throw. There are some indications that pitching is under-rated. Bailey Ober, for example. He's been fairly effective with an 88mph fastball. Ober's never had great stuff. The fact his mediocre stuff has been effective with an 88mph fastball located pretty well says a lot about just being able to pitch. Maybe some day, front offices will put down the iPad and look at results again.

Baseball References' pitcher WAR is nonsensical. The difference over a season from the best to the worst defense in baseball is maybe 0.25 ERA. 125 runs in 13,000 innings pitched, and it's wildly different for different defensive metrics. By using ERA+ or xRA they're just double-counting defensive impact and then multiplying Type II errors over and over. Can't use any version of ERA/RA and then apply a defensive multiplier, then a starter multiplier, then a WPA multiplier. Junk. Absolute GIGO.

What I'm reading is the MLBPA can't be expected to negotiate until owners present an offer the MLBPA wants, and the MLB owners offers are imperfect. I am aware the proposal allows for basically a 20% deduction off the top for "baseball revenue." I'm not sure how that share gets allocated and accounted for. If it's all going into a pool which is used for expansion, stadium maintenance, etc, I don't have a problem with it. It's not necessarily benefitting the owner who is contributing. It's the equivalent of ownership union dues. In any case, the players (and owners) are going to come out much, much worse after another work stoppage.

I have no idea what would qualify as "realistic" for you. Nothing owners want and more money to players, perhaps? I think the owners' proposals have already been realistic. MLBPA is just going to lock this out.

MLBPA "an price you ask over $10 is absolutely unacceptable for this brand new car." Car salesman " I need $40,000 for this car, bare minimum" The car salesman isn't negotiating in bad faith, MLBPA is negotiating in bad faith by not negotiating at all.

Source of revenue is not relevant. The floor and cap is what's relevant. The overall revenue of MLB is roughly estimated by a number of sources. Any floor will come with a cap. Seems like a pretty generous offer from the owner side of things. I wonder if it's an overpay intentionally just to get the cap in there? I'm not sure where this goes, but it ends with a much lower floor/cap/spending if there's another lockout with missed games. Baseball is already bleeding fans. After the last strike, it took years to recover with help from historical accomplishments fueled by PEDs.

Obviously a pie in the sky first offer, but there are dangers in insulting people out of the gate. I mean... it's an insane ask, but maybe? MLB makes about $10B in revenue. $167k per team after 50% cut. Having a salary floor at $150k could work with a 100% revenue sharing model. That model would also come with a hard cap. It would have to come with a hard cap for long term viability.

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I wouldn't be surprised if authorities have asked MLB to not make any official moves until after the criminal cases are finished. From MLB's perspective, this is just a formality. They've undoubtedly already made their decision. Clase and Ortiz are almost certainly done for life.