MLB Power Rankings: Blue Jays & Padres Falling, Brewers Burst Into Top Five

With the 2026 season now more than 40 games old, Major League Baseball has officially moved beyond the small sample stage. The first quarter of the schedule is complete, and the standings are beginning to show real separation across both leagues. Some division races are already taking shape while other clubs are fighting to stay afloat before summer arrives.

That also makes this point in the season one of the trickiest times to evaluate teams accurately. A strong week can dramatically change public perception while a brief slump suddenly raises questions about a contender’s legitimacy. Wins and losses still carry weight, but they often fail to capture how well a team is actually playing beneath the surface.

That is where third order wins provide a more complete picture. Derived from Clay Davenport’s adjusted standings, the metric accounts for factors like run differential, quality of competition, and ballpark environment to better estimate how teams should be performing in a neutral context. Rather than reacting solely to recent results, it focuses on the underlying traits that tend to translate over a full season.

The result is a ranking system designed to be more predictive than reactive. Some teams are proving their early success is sustainable while others continue to lean heavily on sequencing, bullpen fortune, or favorable schedules. The arrows below reflect how each club’s standing has shifted from last week as the league settles into its true hierarchy.

1. Dodgers — 31.0–14.9 (.675)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Blake Snell was scratched from before his second start of the season and put back on the IL with loose bodies in his left elbow. In 2019, he missed a couple months with a similar injury. 

2. Braves — 30.3–15.7 (.659) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Bryce Elder is having his best season in the big leagues so far. In 54 2/3 innings, he has a league-leading 1.81 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 219 ERA+.

3. Yankees — 29.8–16.2 (.648) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Gerrit Cole is expected to make one more rehab start at Triple-A, putting him in line to rejoin the Yankees by the end of May. That’s great news for a club that put Max Fried on the IL with a bone bruise earlier this week.

4. Cubs — 28.1–17.8 (.612)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Cubs have drawn six walks or more in 40% of their games this season. They lead MLB with 210 walks with the Yankees being the only other team with more than 200 free passes. 

5. Brewers — 25.8–17.2 (.600) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Aaron Ashby has eight wins this year, all in relief. No other pitcher has more than six wins. It’s the first time in the modern era that a pitcher had two more relief wins than any other MLB pitcher had total wins at the end of any given day.

6. Rays — 25.6–18.4 (.582) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Rays reached a preliminary agreement with the city of Tampa and county officials on a new $2.3 billion ballpark. The new stadium has a targeted opening of Opening Day 2029. 

7. Pirates — 25.8–20.2 (.561) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Paul Skenes threw eight innings of two-hit ball in one of the best performances of his career. He struck out seven including striking out the side in his final inning. 

8. Rangers — 23.6–21.4 (.524) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Corey Seager was given a rest day on Friday in the middle of a career-worst 0-for-27 skid. He is batting under .180 on the season, over 100 points lower than his career average. 

9. Marlins — 24.0–22.0 (.522) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Robby Snelling, Miami’s top pitching prospect, was placed on the IL with a sprained UCL. That type of injury is never good news for pitchers. 

10. Tigers — 23.3–22.7 (.507) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Casey Mize rejoined the Tigers rotation on Saturday after missing two weeks with a right adductor strain. The team opted for him to skip a minor league rehab assignment. 

11. Mariners — 23.7–23.3 (.504) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Cal Raleigh, the runner-up for AL MVP, was placed on the IL with an oblique injury. In 41 games this season, his .161 batting average is the lowest in the majors among 170 qualified batters. 

12. Cardinals — 22.6–22.4 (.502) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Cardinals have been one of MLB’s surprising teams this season and Jordan Walker has been the team’s sparkplug. On Thursday, he homered and drove in the go-ahead run in the ninth inning. 

13. Guardians — 23.2–23.8 (.494) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Cleveland celebrated the 10-year anniversary of their heartbreaking loss in the 2016 World Series. The reunion weekend allowed players, coaches, and fans to reflect on their best season in recent memory. 

14. Diamondbacks — 21.7–22.3 (.493) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Merrill Kelly threw his first career complete game against the Rockies on Friday. He scattered four hits and had three strikeouts without a walk.

15. Nationals — 22.2–23.8 (.483) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Daylen Lile went 10-for-20 in one stretch over the last week. This includes four homers and a game winning bomb. 

16. Royals — 21.9–24.1 (.476) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Bobby Witt Jr. became the first MLB player to reach 3.0 WAR on Friday. He has a batting run value of nine and a league-leading fielding run value of eight. 

17. Blue Jays — 21.3–23.7 (.473) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Jose Berrios underwent surgery on Wednesday to repair a stress fracture in his right elbow. There is some concern about his ligament in his elbow, which complicates any return timeline. 

18. Red Sox — 21.2–23.8 (.471) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Trevor Story was placed on the IL with a sports hernia. His six errors lead all AL shortstops, while he's batting .206 with a .547 OPS.

19. White Sox — 21.2–23.8 (.471) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: On Saturday, Munetaka Murakami reached 17 home runs through his first 45 MLB games. Only two players in MLB history have ever hit more home runs through their first 45 career games (Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins). 

20. Twins — 21.6–24.4 (.470) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Minnesota demoted Matt Wallner after a disastrous start to the year, slashing .167/.259/.292 (58 wRC+) with a 39.3% strikeout rate and a league-worst -8 Defensive Runs Saved. 

21. Angels — 21.4–24.7 (.464) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Patrick O’Neal departed the Angels broadcast team after parts of 13 seasons. 

22. Phillies — 21.0–25.0 (.457) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Cristopher Sánchez struck out a career-high 13 while picking up the second shutout of his big league career to help Philly climb back to .500. 

23. Padres — 20.5–24.5 (.456) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Lucas Giolito made his much anticipated Padres debut on Sunday after waiting out the free agent market until the season was already underway.   

24. Athletics — 19.9–25.1 (.442) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Henry Bolte, one of the A’s top prospects, reached base three times in his debut and made a tremendous diving grab that included a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed. 

25. Mets — 19.9–25.1 (.442) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Juan Soto joined an elite group this week with 250+ home runs and 95+ SB before turning 28. Other players on the list include: Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Frank Robinson, and Andruw Jones.

26. Giants — 19.8–26.2 (.430) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Luis Arraez had a four-hit game and finished a triple shy of the cycle on Friday night versus the A’s. For Arraez, it was his 16th multi-hit game in the 45 games the Giants have played so far this season.

27. Reds — 18.6–27.4 (.404) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Chris Paddack was picked up off waivers by the Reds and had an impressive first start. In five innings, he scattered six hits and allowed two earned runs.  

28. Astros — 18.9–28.2 (.401) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Astros have been plagued by injuries this season and that continued this week. Jose Altuve left Saturday’s game after taking an awkward swing and pulling something on his left side.

29. Orioles — 18.3–27.7 (.398)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Samuel Basallo started the year on a cold streak (.140 BA in 16 G). Since that point, he has raised his OPS from .592 to .819.

30. Rockies — 17.7–28.3 (.385) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Hunter Goodman is building off his 2025 All-Star campaign. So far this season, he’s hit 11 home runs and posted a 119 OPS+. 

What storylines stood out this week? Do you agree with the rankings above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.