MLB Power Rankings Through A Third-Order Lens

There is no shortage of ways to rank teams across Major League Baseball, and most of them start and end with the standings. Wins and losses still drive the conversation, but they rarely tell the full story. A team hovering around .500 can feel dominant one week and completely overmatched the next, and traditional power rankings often struggle to capture that nuance. That is where a different lens becomes useful.

Third-order wins attempt to answer a more meaningful question than simply who has won the most games. Built on the framework of Clay Davenport’s adjusted standings, this approach evaluates how a team should perform against a neutral opponent. It starts with run production and prevention, adjusts for ballpark environment, and then layers in the quality of competition faced. The result is a winning percentage that reflects underlying performance rather than surface-level outcomes.

Think of it as a context-driven power ranking. First-order records look at run differential. Second-order standings adjust that for park effects. Third-order standings go a step further by asking who those runs came against. Beating up on weak pitching staffs or surviving a gauntlet of elite rotations should not be treated the same, and this model accounts for that difference.

When applying those third-order winning percentages to the current landscape, the rankings shift in ways that traditional standings cannot explain. Some of the league’s top teams continue to validate their dominance, but others begin to separate themselves despite middling records. It creates a version of the power rankings that is less reactive and more predictive, highlighting which clubs are built to sustain success and which may be benefiting from circumstances unlikely to last.

1. Dodgers — 19.4–7.5 (.721)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Edwin Diaz is out until the second half with surgery for loose bodies in his elbow. The Dodger bullpen will be tested.

2. Yankees — 17.9–9.0 (.665)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Max Fried pushing himself into the early AL Cy Young conversation. Fried tossed eight shutout innings on Wednesday against the rival Red Sox. He’s pitched into the seventh inning in all but one start this season.

3. Cubs — 17.5–9.5 (.648) 

Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Cubs' 10-game winning streak was stopped on Saturday, and that streak has helped them move up in the NL Central standings.

4. Braves — 17.6–10.4 (.629)
Biggest Weekly Storyline:  Braves call up No. 2 prospect JR Ritchie for MLB debut. He pitched seven innings and allowed two earned runs (both solo homers) while striking out seven and walking two.

5. Pirates — 16.2–10.8 (.600)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Paul Skenes took a perfect game into the seventh inning on Friday, but lost it with two outs in the frame. The Pirates sit in the middle of the NL Central but are closing ground on the Reds.

6. Marlins — 15.7–11.3 (.581)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Rule 5 Pick Liam Hicks is hitting over .300 with five homers for the Marlins, who are surprisingly in second place in the NL East.

7. Rays — 14.6–11.4 (.562)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Shane McClanahan turned in five scoreless innings to get his first win at Tropicana Field in nearly three years after missing the 2024 and 2025 seasons due to surgery.

8. Angels — 15.6–12.4 (.557)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: José Soriano lowers ERA to 0.24, the best mark in MLB history through first six starts.

9. Rangers — 14.6–12.4 (.541)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Jacob deGrom struck out 10 over 5 2/3 innings, his 62nd game with 10 or more strikeouts.

10. Mariners — 14.5–13.5 (.518)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Matt Brash has multiple season-opening streaks of at least 10 games without an earned run (also: 19 G in 2025). He's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 11 games, striking out five batters in 9 1/3 innings.

11. Tigers — 14.3–13.7 (.511)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Kevin McGonigle's numbers to start the 2026 season stand with all-time greats. He is only the fifth player in MLB history with 30 or more hits, 10 or more doubles, and less than 15 strikeouts in his first 25 games at 21 or younger.

12. Guardians — 14.2–13.8 (.507)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Jose Ramirez became the 11th member of the 290-290 club with over 290 home runs and steals.

13. Padres — 13.0–13.0 (.500)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Mason Miller set the Padres team record for consecutive scoreless innings and has now pitched 34 2/3 scoreless innings, going back to last August. He is seven innings away from breaking the MLB record.

14. Brewers — 12.7–13.3 (.488)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Brewers became only the second time in MLB history to face the reigning Cy Young winning pitchers in back-to-back days. Milwaukee lost both games against Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.

15. Reds — 13.1–13.9 (.485)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Sal Stewart’s 29 RBI are the second-most by any Major League rookie before May since 1920. Only Jose Abreu's 32 RBIs in 2014 were better.

16. Athletics — 13.3–14.7 (.475)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Brent Rooker activated after the All-Star missed 14 games with an oblique strain.

17. Diamondbacks — 12.2–13.8 (.469)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Zac Gallen exited Saturday’s game against the San Diego Padres in Mexico City with a right shoulder contusion after being hit by a comebacker.

18. Blue Jays — 12.2–13.8 (.469)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Jeff Hoffman’s struggles since Game 7 of the World Series forced the team to remove him from the closer role. The team will go with a closer-by-committee approach.

19. Nationals — 12.8–15.2 (.457)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: James Wood homered in three straight games and leads the NL in homers and walks.

20. Royals — 12.3–14.7 (.456)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Royals will build a $1.9B ballpark as part of a $3B downtown Kansas City redevelopment project.

21. Twins — 12.2–14.8 (.452)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, two powerful left-handed pitching prospects, made their MLB debuts in the same game.

22. Mets — 11.5–14.5 (.442)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Mets ended their 12-game losing streak but lost Francisco Lindor to the IL with a calf injury.

23. Giants — 11.8–15.2 (.437)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Ended Shohei Ohtani’s 53-game on-base streak as part of a shutout win over the Dodgers.

24. Rockies — 11.4–15.6 (.422)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Mickey Moniak leads Colorado with eight homers, which ranks in MLB’s top-10. He missed the season’s first six games with a sprained finger.

25. Cardinals — 10.8–15.2 (.415)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Jordan Walker has cooled off after starting the year with a league-leading 13 home runs.

26. Orioles — 11.2–15.8 (.415)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Adley Rutschman hit two homers and collected six RBI on Friday. He has a 1.020 OPS through his first 51 ABs.

27. Phillies — 11.0–16.1 (.406)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Zack Wheeler returned for the struggling Phillies and turned in a strong five-inning, two-run, six-strikeout outing.

28. Red Sox — 11.0–16.1 (.406)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Boston fired manager Alex Cora and most of his coaching staff, sending shock waves through the organization.

29. White Sox — 10.7–16.3 (.396)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Munetaka Murakami ranks among MLB’s Top 10 in home runs, wOBA, xwOBA, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage.

30. Astros — 10.8–17.2 (.386)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Yordan Alvarez leads the AL in nearly every major statistical category (BA, OBP, OPS, HR, H, etc.). Still, the Astros sit at the bottom of the AL West.

What storylines stood out this week? Do you agree with the rankings above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.