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As the calendar turns to July, Major League Baseball enters one of its most important stretches of the season. The All-Star Game is just weeks away, the MLB Draft is right around the corner, and front offices are already preparing for the Trade Deadline. Every game carries a little more significance as contenders look to separate themselves and struggling clubs decide whether they can stay in the race.

With over half a season in the books, dramatic swings in the power rankings become far less common. The sample size is now large enough that most teams have established who they are. Clubs at the top have consistently proven their quality, while those near the bottom face increasingly difficult odds of climbing back into contention. There is still room for movement, but week-to-week changes tend to be more gradual as the standings and underlying numbers stabilize.

That makes third-order wins one of the best ways to evaluate how teams are truly performing. Based on Clay Davenport's adjusted standings, the metric looks beyond simple wins and losses by incorporating run differential, strength of schedule, and ballpark effects. The result is a clearer picture of which clubs are playing the best baseball and which may be benefiting from good fortune or favorable circumstances.

These rankings are designed to reflect sustainable performance rather than short-term hot streaks. The arrows below indicate which teams are trending upward, slipping backward, or holding steady as the race toward October continues to take shape.

1. Dodgers — 57.0–25.9 (.688)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Mookie Betts hit his 300th career home run to become the 169th player in MLB history to reach that feat.

2. Yankees — 51.1–30.9 (.623)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: New York allowed six unearned runs in a disastrous game against AL East rival Boston. The Yankees are still at the top of the AL, but that’s not saying much at this point.

3. Brewers — 49.8–30.2 (.622)

Biggest Weekly Storyline:  Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski hit 105.5 mph in his last start, tied for 3rd-hardest pitch in the Statcast Era (since 2008). The only pitches harder than 105.5 mph in MLB history: Aroldis Chapman at 105.8 mph in 2010 and Aroldis Chapman at 105.7 mph in 2016.

4. Pirates — 46.4–36.6 (.559) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: With a 41-41 record, the Pirates have their best halfway point record since 2015. It’s been a tremendous turnaround for a team that finished last in the NL Central with 71 wins in 2025.

5. Marlins — 46.2–36.8 (.557) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Max Meyer improved to 9-0 on the season. Meyer remains the only qualified starter in the majors without a loss this season. He tied Livan Hernández (9-0 in 1997) for the best record to open a season in Marlins history.

6. Rays — 44.4–35.5 (.556)  ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Rays became the first MLB team to carry a no-hit bid into the ninth inning while also having one player hit three home runs with Junior Caminero’s three homers.

7. Braves — 44.9–36.1 (.554)  ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Atlanta’s bullpen took another hit as right-hander Robert Suarez was placed on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation. Through 31 games, he’s posted a 0.56 ERA and recorded 26 strikeouts.

8. Cubs — 45.5–37.4 (.549) ⬇️ 

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Shortstop Dansby Swanson had 15 RBI across 3 games vs. Mets, including 11 in a doubleheader. Those are the most RBI a Cubs player has recorded in a series of fewer than five games since the RBI became an official stat in 1920.

9. Mariners — 42.9–41.1 (.511)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Seattle entered Saturday ranked 25th in MLB in runs per game at 4.02, a 651 run pace. In 2025, they concluded at 4.75 runs per game, 10th in MLB and a 766 run season.

10. White Sox — 41.3–39.7 (.510) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Chicago destroyed Kansas City on Friday by a final score of 22-1.  The 22 runs tied for the second-most in White Sox history and the 21-run margin of victory ranks second all-time in club history. 

11. Rangers — 42.2–40.8 (.508)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Rangers shortstop Corey Seager went 0-3 with two walks in return from the concussion list. However, Texas needs an offensive boost from arguably its biggest star.

12. Red Sox — 41.0–40.0 (.506) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Payton Tolle dominated the Yankees on Friday night at Fenway. Over seven shutout innings, he allowed one hit and struck out seven. He began the game with five perfect frames.

13. Tigers — 41.9–41.1 (.505) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Pitchers Keider Montero and Emmanuel De Jesus combined for a five-hit shutout while both Venezuelans wore hats embroidered with “VZ” after this week's tragic earthquakes. 

14. Blue Jays — 41.0–42.0 (.494) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Second baseman Ernie Clement automatically qualified for theAll-Star Game by winning the league's Phase 1 of fan voting. Clement got 3,232,932 and finished ahead of Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez (2,911,655 votes).

15. Orioles — 40.4–43.6 (.481) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Trevor Rogers followed up his seven one-hit innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend by allowing a run and five hits in 6 1/3 innings Friday. He struck out seven without a walk.

16. Cardinals — 38.4–41.6 (.480) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Infielder Blaze Jordan has 12 RBI through his first 12 career games, matching Albert Pujols (2001) and J.D. Drew (1998) for most in franchise history through the first 12 career games.

17. Guardians — 39.8–43.3 (.479) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Cooper Ingle became the ninth player this season to make their big-league debut for Cleveland. His .551 slugging percentage leads Guardians' minor leaguers and his 12 home runs are tied for second.

18. Nationals — 40.1–43.9 (.477) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Between the three losses between Tuesday and Thursday, the Nationals were outscored 18-4 in the eighth and ninth innings by the Phillies. Washington’s bullpen has been its Achilles heel all year.  

19. Phillies — 39.5–43.5 (.476)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Bryce Harper’s clutch 9th-inning home run helped the Phillies make MLB history. Philadelphia became the first MLB team to hit a go-ahead HR in the ninth inning of three consecutive games. 

20. Angels — 39.9–44.1 (.475) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Angels fired general manager Perry Minasian on Friday. Former St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak will take over as interim general manager while the Angels search for Minasian's permanent replacement.

21. Royals — 35.4–41.7 (.459) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. returned to the Royals lineup at DH on Friday after missing six games with an MCL sprain. On Saturday, he was back in the lineup and playing shortstop. 

22. Diamondbacks — 37.5–44.5 (.457) ⬆️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Outfielder Corbin Carroll is the Diamondbacks new franchise leader in triples with 53 in 566 games. He passed Stephen Drew who had 52 triples in 773 games.

23. Twins — 37.9–46.1 (.451) ⬇️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Mick Abel will have arthroscopic surgery after elbow injury setback. A timeline for his return won’t be established until after the surgery.

24. Mets — 37.4–45.6 (.451)

Biggest Weekly Storyline: The Mets fired manager Carlos Mendoza. Andy Green has been named the interim manager through the end of the season.

25. Astros — 38.2–46.8 (.449)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Tatsuya Imai struck out six batters through his first two innings on Friday. He finished the game with 11 K’s along with zero walks as Houston collected a comeback win over Cleveland. 

26. Padres — 36.2–44.8 (.447) ⬆️

Biggest Weekly Storyline: Starter Walker Buehler pitched into the sixth inning and allowed one run for a victory over his former team (Los Angeles) on Friday night for the club’s fourth consecutive win. He yielded three hits and three walks with five strikeouts. 

27. Athletics — 36.1–46.9 (.435) ⬇️
Biggest Weekly Storyline: The A’s have already combined for 22 comeback wins, most in the AL and fourth most in MLB.

28. Reds — 32.8–48.2 (.405)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: On Friday Caleb Ferguson nailed down his first save of the season to become the 10th different Reds pitcher to record a save this season. That ties a team record since 1969 and it is still only June 27.

29. Rockies — 32.1–51.0 (.386)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: At 32-49, the Rockies are already a plus-14 wins from where they were a year ago at the halfway mark. Over the last three seasons they’ve dropped 323 games (2023-25), tied for the fifth-most losses by a team over a three-year span in the modern era.

30. Giants — 40.4–41.6 (.493)
Biggest Weekly Storyline: On Tuesday, San Francisco's president of baseball operations Buster Posey addressed the media for the first time since the Pride Night issues. He repeatedly said, “Baseball questions only” to multiple inquiries from the media. It was a poor look for a player and executive that will forever be tied to the Giants.   

What storylines stood out this week? Do you agree with the rankings above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.


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Cody Christie

@nodaktwinsfan

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