Brock Beauchamp

Welcome and thanks for sharing!

This is an evaluation of third-order wins. From the article: "Based on Clay Davenport's adjusted standings, the metric looks beyond simple wins and losses by incorporating run differential, strength of schedule, and ballpark effects. The result is a clearer picture of which clubs are playing the best baseball and which may be benefiting from good fortune or favorable circumstances." It's not a be-all, end-all number, but it gives insight into how teams are playing if baseball were a truly neutral environment.

Do you mean Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis? Because Lee is under team control for... maybe five more years? While Lewis has 2-3 seasons left.

We've collected experts on the Twins, Red Sox, Royals, and Mets to rank their respective teams' trade candidates and that player's likelihood of being traded before the MLB trade deadline on August 3. If The Minnesota Twins Sell At The Trade Deadline The Twins sit two games behind the final AL Wild Card spot in mid-June, close enough to dream but facing a difficult decision. Cody Christie of Twins Daily lays out who goes if they sell. In the "Definitely Traded" tier, ace Joe Ryan headlines; with another full season of team control remaining after 2026, Ryan offers contenders certainty beyond October, and his return could rival any package the org has recently received. Catcher Ryan Jeffers, a pending free agent who was hitting well before a broken hamate, profiles as a classic deadline move to flip an expiring contract to a contender. Also listed: 1B Josh Bell, LHP Taylor Rogers, and RHP Yoendrys Gómez, a cash-considerations pickup turned closer who is riding a high in performance. The "Possibly Traded" group covers OF Trevor Larnach, UTL Kody Clemens, LH reliever Anthony Banda, and Royce Lewis, a potential change-of-scenery candidate. Buxton (full no-trade protection, wants to stay) and Victor Caratini are deemed unlikely to move. Christie concludes Ryan and Jeffers are the likeliest headliners, with the standings dictating Zoll's direction. Ranking Twins Trade Candidates If They Sell At MLB Trade Deadline - Twins - Twins Daily TWINSDAILY.COM The American League remains a mess. Despite an inconsistent first half, the Minnesota Twins have played better over the last week and continue to hang around the Wild Card race. Entering... If The Boston Red Sox Sell At The Trade Deadline Alex Mayes frames Boston as a clear seller despite a recent hot stretch of play, including a sweep of the Yankees. In "Definitely Will Be Traded": closer Aroldis Chapman, described as arguably the AL's best closer and the top reliever likely available, and SP Sonny Gray, an affordable rental (the Cardinals are covering half his salary), who should return a package similar to or better than Chapman's. The "Possibly Could Be Traded" tier includes OF Jarren Duran (underperforming in an outfield that could be improved with Roman Anthony starting every day), UTIL Isiah Kiner-Falefa, RP Justin Slaten, 1B Willson Contreras, and C Connor Wong, who the team has reportedly been shopping. Contreras, the team's best hitter, is unlikely to move unless Boston is blown away, since dealing him would hurt the 2027 hopes of contention. In "Unlikely To Be Traded": two-time Gold Glove OF Wilyer Abreu, RP Garrett Whitlock (the closer-in-waiting), and SS Trevor Story, whose $23.33 million AAV and injury history make his deal almost certainly unmovable at this juncture. Ranking Red Sox Trade Candidates If They Sell at MLB Trade Deadline - Red Sox - Talk Sox TALKSOX.COM The Red Sox somehow still aren't completely out of the AL Wild Card picture, but they have been stacking losses as of late. It's time to turn towards the trade deadline and figure out who will... If The Kansas City Royals Sell At The Trade Deadline Kevin O'Brien writes that the Royals, 35-50 and last in the AL Central with 2.7% playoff odds per FanGraphs, should approach this deadline like 2023: dealing veterans for prospects rather than buying. "Definitely Traded" candidates: OF Lane Thomas (a useful righty platoon bat), 37-year-old OF Starling Marte, RP John Schreiber (the bullpen's lone bright spot in a unit ranking 30th in reliever ERA), SP Kris Bubic (returning from injury), and RP Matt Strahm, who has struggled but could rebound elsewhere. "Probably Traded" covers SP Michael Wacha, the team's best starter this season, though trading a pitcher who wants to stay risks bad blood, plus the pricier SP Seth Lugo and relievers Daniel Lynch IV and Alex Lange (a local guy whose value has never been higher), and Lucas Erceg, who has slumped but retains 97-plus velocity. Unlikely to move: injured Kyle Isbel, slumping Vinnie Pasquantino (recovering from hamate surgery), and Salvador Perez, whom the team wants to retire a Royal. Ranking Royals Trade Candidates If They Sell At MLB Trade Deadline - Royals - Royals Keep ROYALSKEEP.COM Kansas City sits at the bottom of the AL Central Standings and could be quite active at this year's Trade Deadline. Here are some names to watch. If The New York Mets Sell At The Trade Deadline Michael Reed reports the Mets at 35-50, second-worst in the National League, with David Stearns potentially shedding payroll for the future ahead of the likely 2027 lockout. The "Will Be Traded" group is pitching-heavy: SP Freddy Peralta, acquired last offseason for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, whose name value should fetch a decent prospect haul despite uneven results; reliever Brooks Raley, a reliable veteran southpaw on an expiring deal; RP Huascar Brazobán, controllable through 2029, which Reed notes could make his value higher than expected; and lefty A.J. Minter, who has yet to allow an earned run since returning from a lat tear. The "Could Be Traded" tier features RP Luke Weaver (controlled through 2027, so the Mets could hold him), struggling closer Devin Williams (whose contract Stearns would likely need to eat partly), and SP Clay Holmes, recovering from a fractured fibula but on one of baseball's better contracts. Reed names the Cubs, Cardinals, White Sox, Rays, and A's as likely Peralta suitors. The article carries no "unlikely to trade" tier. Ranking Mets Trade Candidates If They Sell At MLB Trade Deadline - Mets - Grand Central Mets GRANDCENTRALMETS.COM The Mets remain on the outside looking in on the NL playoff race. if David Stearns decides to pull the plug on 2026, these are the most likely trade candidates. View full article

I emailed you, check the email linked to this account.

Hawkeye, what are you seeing when you try to go to TD?

Inversely, it's not great that Milwaukee and Tampa needs to run at 99% efficiency to compete, whereas the Phillies just throw money at the problem but aren't particularly smart about it. I actually don't want pure, NFL-style balance, but I do want a less stratified system.

Same. I fully expected the owners' first offer to include a floor of $80m or something equally laughable. I'm hopeful that their first offer is actually quite reasonable, and could lead to the sport being better when all is said and done.

Thanks for mentioning the benefits part. I knew benefits were included, but hadn't seen what the adjusted floor looks like. $150m is still a good starting point, IMO.

Yep, this is a problem we're working on right now.

You know I'm no fan of the owners, but offering a split in revenue, and a $171 million floor is beyond generous given their history. I feel like I'm missing something here because I fully expected the owners to start with something laughable like an $80 million floor.

What am I missing here? A $171 million floor makes this wayyyyyyyyy more appealing than I expected the owners' first offer to be.

Bah, that was my fault, I should have caught that 40-man reference. Yes, that's a $1.5 million major-league salary.

I'm good with this, sign me up! Mostly. I'm actually against 100% revenue sharing. I believe it's better for the sport for the Dodgers and Yankees and Cubs and Red Sox to be a little more prominent, and spend a bit more. But 80, 90% revenue sharing? Yeah, I'm all on board with that, and make a hard floor and cap linked to revenue.

The American League is in a sorry state.

I approved it just so you don't get stuck in a queue again. Yeah, this was one of the site instances failing, but I couldn't identify which one, had to wait for the developer to chime in on it.

Yeah, one of the instances on the servers is having issues, I am going to take a look later today.

Dude, seriously. You think teams will bunt? It's literally the first thing advanced metrics told us was a terrible idea. I just cannot fathom how anyone says modern athletes "aren't trying" in any capacity. For god's sake, professional sports are SO MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE than they were. Jacob Misiorowski just started a game where he threw about a dozen pitches over 102 mph. Guys are faster and stronger than they've ever been. They have access to film and training techniques impossible just 20 years ago. And if they put these things together, they might get a 500 MILLION DOLLAR PAYDAY out of it. And you think these guys just don't try to maximize every avenue of improvement? This take just absolutely floors me because it's so detached from reality. These guys start travel ball when they're like nine years old, but somehow they're not willing to maximize their ability in the name of a payday so large the average person can't even fathom it?

I think deferred contracts are out of control, and I don't like them much, but they also don't crack the top five of things I care about. The first four on that list are revenue sharing, revenue sharing, revenue sharing, and revenue sharing.

Most of those aren't the reasons baseball changed the rules. The game evolved, and MLB is encouraging things it wants to see. Stolen bases dropped because teams figured out they weren't valuable if you got caught. So MLB made it easier to steal, thereby encouraging teams to steal more. The three-hitter minimum was put in place to reduce game length, full stop. Pitchers never hit, can't forget something you never knew. So baseball mercifully put an end to that fiasco in the name of making the viewing experience better.