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Everything posted by Matthew Nethercott
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As the holiday season stalls MLB Free Agency for a bit, speculation begins to grow about where players will sign. The position player market has been stalled over the past few weeks as some of the bigger names linger on the market, but some other platoon-type bats remain on the market that could make a big impact on contending teams. Here is a look at some of the best right-handed platoon options on the market. Harrison Bader Harrison Bader is coming off a massive 2025 season with the Minnesota Twins and the Philadelphia Phillies. At 31, he posted some of the best offensive numbers of his career while maintaining his status as one of the game's premier defensive outfielders. Bader was a key contributor for two contending teams, finishing the year with a 3.2 fWAR. He notably improved his plate discipline and power, surpassing his previous career highs in several categories. The majority of his underlying hitting metrics were poor in 2025, according to Baseball Savant, which might be a deterrent for teams. Bader's defense remained "generationally good," according to analysts. A major storyline of his 2025 season was his positional versatility; with the Twins, he often played Left Field to accommodate Byron Buxton in Center, before moving back to his natural Center Field role more frequently later in the year and after his move to Philadelphia. Bader finished the season with +6 OAA, continuing to rank in the upper echelons of outfield range. He also maintained elite physical tools, ranking in the 99th percentile for bursts and the 83rd percentile for jumps. Ramón Urías Ramón Urías is coming off a 2025 season where he served as a versatile infielder for both the Baltimore Orioles and the Houston Astros. Known for his 2022 Gold Glove at third base, Urías showed a significant defensive bounce-back in 2025 while establishing himself as a potent threat against left-handed pitching. Urías ended the season with an OPS+ of 88, which is driven by heavy platoon splits. After a down year defensively in 2024, Urías returned to form in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, he was a net positive in the field. He recorded +2 OAA, a major improvement from his -9 OAA mark in 2024. Urias finished with a +1 Run Value, placing him in the solid average to above-average tier for major league infielders. He also provides defensive versatility, being able to play first, second and third base. Austin Hays Austin Hays spent the season with the Cincinnati Reds after signing a one-year deal. While he remained a productive "platoon-plus" outfielder with a 105 wRC+, his season was marked by a decline in physical tools – specifically his speed and range – partially due to recurring foot and back injuries. His offensive value in 2025 came primarily from his ability to punish left-handed pitching and maintain a respectable power profile. However, his expected metrics (x-stats) suggest he may have overperformed his true contact quality slightly. His 10.4% barrel percentage, according to Baseball Savant, shows that Hays possesses the strength to find the "sweet spot" regularly. His hard-hit rate dipped to 38.4%, which is below league average and dropped from where it was in previous seasons (40.1% in 2023). Historically known as a high-energy defender with a "cannon" for an arm, Hays has transitioned into a more average defensive profile as his Sprint Speed has declined. Hays recorded +1 OAA in 2025. This ranks him in the 50th-60th percentile of MLB outfielders. While no longer elite, he is still a "net positive" defender in Left Field. View full article
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Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images Dodgers right-hander Tyler Glasnow has reportedly become a trade discussion point this offseason, with the team apparently "not opposed" to moving him despite his elite ability. Contract Status When he was traded to the Dodgers prior to the 2024 season, he quickly signed a five-year, $136.5 million extension. Currently, there are two guaranteed years and $81.6 million left on his deal. There is a $30 million club option for the 2028 season, which turns into a $21,562,500 player option if the club declines. The amount of money left on this deal complicates the ease of a trade, since many teams will likely not want to make that financial commitment. Dodgers Performance When healthy, Glasnow has pitched to ace-level expectations during his time with the Dodgers. Across the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons, he posted a combined 2.98 xERA over 224 1/3 innings pitched with an impressive 30.6% strikeout rate and a 1.01 WHIP. Notably, his performance also shined in the postseason, where he recorded a 1.69 ERA over 21 1/3 innings during the Dodgers' 2025 World Series run. While there is a high upside to Glasnow's performance, there are a few concerns about his future. The first, Glasnow walks way too many batters. In 2025, Glasnow posted an 11.7 BB%, a major drop-off from his 2025 rate of 6.7%. Glasnow’s chase percentage also dropped from the 33rd percentile in 2024 to the first percentile in 2025. There was a change in Glasnow’s arm slot and where his pitches landed, detailed by the statcast illustration below, that could be part of the reason he is not getting batters to chase his pitches. The second is his injury history. His inability to consistently pitch a full season has been a career-long issue, significantly undermining his elite performance when healthy. Glasnow's injury timeline is dominated by arm, shoulder, and core issues, with the most severe being Tommy John surgery. Most recently, Glasnow was out for two months during the 2025 season with right shoulder inflammation. This string of injuries has resulted in a startling lack of innings pitched for a pitcher of his caliber. Before setting a career high of 134 innings pitched in 2024, his previous high was 120 in 2023. In his 10 major league seasons, Glasnow has only reached the 100-inning mark three times. This track record, combined with his high-velocity, high-stress delivery and his contract guaranteeing him over $81 million through his age-34 season, makes him a significant gamble for any team. How the Dodgers approach Glasnow's trade market will determine his value. If Los Angeles is willing to pay down some of his contract, more teams in need of pitching should show interest. View full article
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Dodgers right-hander Tyler Glasnow has reportedly become a trade discussion point this offseason, with the team apparently "not opposed" to moving him despite his elite ability. Contract Status When he was traded to the Dodgers prior to the 2024 season, he quickly signed a five-year, $136.5 million extension. Currently, there are two guaranteed years and $81.6 million left on his deal. There is a $30 million club option for the 2028 season, which turns into a $21,562,500 player option if the club declines. The amount of money left on this deal complicates the ease of a trade, since many teams will likely not want to make that financial commitment. Dodgers Performance When healthy, Glasnow has pitched to ace-level expectations during his time with the Dodgers. Across the 2024 and 2025 regular seasons, he posted a combined 2.98 xERA over 224 1/3 innings pitched with an impressive 30.6% strikeout rate and a 1.01 WHIP. Notably, his performance also shined in the postseason, where he recorded a 1.69 ERA over 21 1/3 innings during the Dodgers' 2025 World Series run. While there is a high upside to Glasnow's performance, there are a few concerns about his future. The first, Glasnow walks way too many batters. In 2025, Glasnow posted an 11.7 BB%, a major drop-off from his 2025 rate of 6.7%. Glasnow’s chase percentage also dropped from the 33rd percentile in 2024 to the first percentile in 2025. There was a change in Glasnow’s arm slot and where his pitches landed, detailed by the statcast illustration below, that could be part of the reason he is not getting batters to chase his pitches. The second is his injury history. His inability to consistently pitch a full season has been a career-long issue, significantly undermining his elite performance when healthy. Glasnow's injury timeline is dominated by arm, shoulder, and core issues, with the most severe being Tommy John surgery. Most recently, Glasnow was out for two months during the 2025 season with right shoulder inflammation. This string of injuries has resulted in a startling lack of innings pitched for a pitcher of his caliber. Before setting a career high of 134 innings pitched in 2024, his previous high was 120 in 2023. In his 10 major league seasons, Glasnow has only reached the 100-inning mark three times. This track record, combined with his high-velocity, high-stress delivery and his contract guaranteeing him over $81 million through his age-34 season, makes him a significant gamble for any team. How the Dodgers approach Glasnow's trade market will determine his value. If Los Angeles is willing to pay down some of his contract, more teams in need of pitching should show interest.
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Image courtesy of © Mike Watters-Imagn Images The MLB Winter Meetings are typically the most active week of the MLB offseason. It’s a week when all 30 teams meet at a destination – this year, Orlando – and formulate their offseason plans, including deals with free agents and trades with other teams. John Bonnes of DiamondCentric had a few minutes with the Twins' president of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, and they discussed preparations for the Winter Meetings. Each of the 30 teams receives a dedicated room where their top executives meet to discuss their plans. “I do think big picture, we talked to a few agents about this today, and they agreed, at least one group agreed, that it’s felt like a lot of what happens during Winter Meetings now, there’s some big boy deals, but then there’s a lot of, you kind of get a sense for parameters or where some people are thinking, and then within like 10 days after, you see a lot of things start to happen.” Derek Falvey, President of Baseball Operations for the Minnesota Twins, said Tuesday. Free Agents and Trades The Twins, like many other teams in Major League Baseball, have payroll constraints that limit how much payroll they can add this offseason. In that case, teams will alert agents to those payroll constraints to help guide them to talent that can improve their teams within budget. “We’ve tried to, from GM Meetings (held in early November every year) onward, we kind of told you what we were telling teams around that time,” Falvey said. “And then subsequent to that, got a little more direction on some conversations around our direction. But not much before here. So I think it’s been a lot of work here.” Falvey then took us into the room, what it's like when negotiating with an agent. He mentioned that depending on the player and their representation depends on the amount of people in the room. “At these meetings, it’s always been like this, my whole career, little bit of just catching up back and forth.” Said Falvey. “What they’re thinking the market is, what it looks like big picture. And we might talk about a few of their players and where they see it shaping up." Asked how many people are involved in agent negotiations, Zoll replied, "Depends which agent, because it’s usually like an army of people." “The range of outcomes in that conversation is pretty significant. Some are, hey, it’s moving now, and if you want in, we’ve got to talk about it right now. Or we’re going to, we’re waiting on this guy and this guy and this guy, and we’ll see how that shakes out. and once we know what the market really is, we’ll move but we’re not going to move quickly. It just depends on each agency and how they want to navigate. How many players they have.” Many fans have a common misconception about how deals come together. It often takes time. From negotiating to overall conversations, the process can stretch into weeks and then months. It’s fascinating how trades come together. Especially this offseason, when it's perceived as a weak free-agent class, trades will be essential to how teams do business. “And it happens, like, if you think about it, it used to be, okay, GM to GM. There's so many people involved in this now.” Falvey said regarding trade development. “It could be people that, you know, report three rings down from the two of us, right? Three or four rings down that are connecting with somebody else on the other team saying, and, you know, we'll get someone, I'm just trying to think of someone, who's in our group, right? We got an outreach from... a guy they might move as, like, a bottom of the roster conversation, right?” When talking deals, it’s not just the baseball operations people who are involved in the room. “And our scouts, like our whole crew, and like, we go through our player personnel process of, like, Okay, how's he fit? Like, where would he fit on our roster? What are the options? Option status?” Falvey added. “Like, how, you know, we go through this whole checklist of sorts, and then think about, okay, well, what? And then we might just say, yeah, we'd like to hear what the ask is, and then they come back. And if it's players, we like a little too much, we're like, Yeah, that's probably a little too rich. Like, they'll end up moving somewhere else. That can happen sometimes.” “And they'll signal you, you know, let's use all the public prospect lists, right? Like, when they're asking you for someone that's sitting in your 26 to 35 range. Okay, we kind of get a sense where they're hunting here. And if you're engaged and you're, we wouldn't do this guy. We might consider that guy. We might float a name of another guy in that range that they might be like, oh yeah, we see him similarly. And we might just say we have a little depth there.” Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll was then asked about a potential trade deal surrounding starters Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. He responded by saying “I mean, the most, I think classic answer is it depends and it all in context matters a ton on all this stuff. But you know, I think other teams see the strength that we have there too, and that's why we're getting hit, not just on Joe and Pablo, but, you know, really through that whole group. So, you try to just evaluate every opportunity and try to understand the context as best as possible. But we feel like it's a strength and a surplus, and when you have that that you know gives you a chance to at least think through as many creative ideas as possible.” The Twins have signaled this offseason that they are not looking to shop the rotation duo, but Zoll made it clear that they will do what is in the best long-term interest of the team. Prospects and Prospect Value in Trades Zoll was also asked about young players. In recent years, we have seen teams become “prospect huggers,” reluctant to deal any prospect the organization believes has a chance to be a big-time major leaguer. “Again, every player has their own story and case on that. We’re trying to make the best holistic evaluation on that knowing a lot of the guys we have have a lot of control, and in turn make them valuable for hopefully that whole control window. You’re just trying to find the right timing for those opportunities and common discussions around selling high, selling low and trying to find that right balance. You never really know. …That’s what we spend a lot of time discussing. The return and all those things play into that.” Falvey was then asked if he changes his ask in trades based on the type of player that might be sent away (i.e., if the Twins deal a starter, are they looking for a major league replacement). Falvey responded by saying, “It’s a good question. I don’t know that it’s quite that specific. I think every team now has broadened their likes to some degree, depending on where they are.” But what if a team values something different than the other, like one team holds a pitcher in higher regard than the team they are on? How does that impact talks? Zoll responded by saying, “I know what you’re getting at. I think we’re just trying to make the evaluation we can on what we think the market should be for any given player that we’re getting asked on. If trades happen, it’s because there was some degree of overlap and intersection, not this idea of they’re just overvaluing these players with these trades and in turn the other team is trying to take advantage of that.” Over the years, watching transactions, it is clear that certain teams have relationships with others that help push deals across the finish line. But that is not always the case. Falvey cites that sometimes, variance in opinion helps trades get done, saying, “Despite the relationships we have in the game, and we have relationships with all the teams. It’s sometimes helpful to work with someone who just sees the world differently than you. Then you do find more overlap. It’s like, oh, this is type of player that we like, this is the type of player they like. When you like all the same types of players, it gets a little trickier to find those intersections.” Rule 5 Draft and MLB Draft Placement The Rule 5 Draft is also an event that takes place at the winter meetings. The Rule 5 Draft allows teams to select certain minor league players from other organizations who are not on their club's 40-man roster, provided the selected player meets specific professional service time requirements. Its primary purpose is to prevent organizations from hoarding talented players in the minor leagues who might otherwise be ready for a chance to compete at the major league level. “We’re a full 40 right now. We can make a move between now and tomorrow.” Falvey said on the Twins' plans for the Rule 5 draft. “If we do, we’ll have that conversation if someone is available. We’ve been thinking about that over the course of the week and working through some different iterations that could allow for us to have an opening.” The MLB Draft is also an important event at the winter meetings. The draft lottery took place on Tuesday evening, and the Twins received the third overall pick. Before the placement of the pick became a reality, Zoll said, “Obviously, the higher the better, and you’re hoping for as high as possible. Once we knew — once we had an indication that it wasn’t going to be the top pick, I know Sean (Johnson) and the scouting group were really hopeful to be in the top three so to land that feels really good.” View full article
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The MLB Winter Meetings are typically the most active week of the MLB offseason. It’s a week when all 30 teams meet at a destination – this year, Orlando – and formulate their offseason plans, including deals with free agents and trades with other teams. John Bonnes of DiamondCentric had a few minutes with the Twins' president of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, and they discussed preparations for the Winter Meetings. Each of the 30 teams receives a dedicated room where their top executives meet to discuss their plans. “I do think big picture, we talked to a few agents about this today, and they agreed, at least one group agreed, that it’s felt like a lot of what happens during Winter Meetings now, there’s some big boy deals, but then there’s a lot of, you kind of get a sense for parameters or where some people are thinking, and then within like 10 days after, you see a lot of things start to happen.” Derek Falvey, President of Baseball Operations for the Minnesota Twins, said Tuesday. Free Agents and Trades The Twins, like many other teams in Major League Baseball, have payroll constraints that limit how much payroll they can add this offseason. In that case, teams will alert agents to those payroll constraints to help guide them to talent that can improve their teams within budget. “We’ve tried to, from GM Meetings (held in early November every year) onward, we kind of told you what we were telling teams around that time,” Falvey said. “And then subsequent to that, got a little more direction on some conversations around our direction. But not much before here. So I think it’s been a lot of work here.” Falvey then took us into the room, what it's like when negotiating with an agent. He mentioned that depending on the player and their representation depends on the amount of people in the room. “At these meetings, it’s always been like this, my whole career, little bit of just catching up back and forth.” Said Falvey. “What they’re thinking the market is, what it looks like big picture. And we might talk about a few of their players and where they see it shaping up." Asked how many people are involved in agent negotiations, Zoll replied, "Depends which agent, because it’s usually like an army of people." “The range of outcomes in that conversation is pretty significant. Some are, hey, it’s moving now, and if you want in, we’ve got to talk about it right now. Or we’re going to, we’re waiting on this guy and this guy and this guy, and we’ll see how that shakes out. and once we know what the market really is, we’ll move but we’re not going to move quickly. It just depends on each agency and how they want to navigate. How many players they have.” Many fans have a common misconception about how deals come together. It often takes time. From negotiating to overall conversations, the process can stretch into weeks and then months. It’s fascinating how trades come together. Especially this offseason, when it's perceived as a weak free-agent class, trades will be essential to how teams do business. “And it happens, like, if you think about it, it used to be, okay, GM to GM. There's so many people involved in this now.” Falvey said regarding trade development. “It could be people that, you know, report three rings down from the two of us, right? Three or four rings down that are connecting with somebody else on the other team saying, and, you know, we'll get someone, I'm just trying to think of someone, who's in our group, right? We got an outreach from... a guy they might move as, like, a bottom of the roster conversation, right?” When talking deals, it’s not just the baseball operations people who are involved in the room. “And our scouts, like our whole crew, and like, we go through our player personnel process of, like, Okay, how's he fit? Like, where would he fit on our roster? What are the options? Option status?” Falvey added. “Like, how, you know, we go through this whole checklist of sorts, and then think about, okay, well, what? And then we might just say, yeah, we'd like to hear what the ask is, and then they come back. And if it's players, we like a little too much, we're like, Yeah, that's probably a little too rich. Like, they'll end up moving somewhere else. That can happen sometimes.” “And they'll signal you, you know, let's use all the public prospect lists, right? Like, when they're asking you for someone that's sitting in your 26 to 35 range. Okay, we kind of get a sense where they're hunting here. And if you're engaged and you're, we wouldn't do this guy. We might consider that guy. We might float a name of another guy in that range that they might be like, oh yeah, we see him similarly. And we might just say we have a little depth there.” Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll was then asked about a potential trade deal surrounding starters Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. He responded by saying “I mean, the most, I think classic answer is it depends and it all in context matters a ton on all this stuff. But you know, I think other teams see the strength that we have there too, and that's why we're getting hit, not just on Joe and Pablo, but, you know, really through that whole group. So, you try to just evaluate every opportunity and try to understand the context as best as possible. But we feel like it's a strength and a surplus, and when you have that that you know gives you a chance to at least think through as many creative ideas as possible.” The Twins have signaled this offseason that they are not looking to shop the rotation duo, but Zoll made it clear that they will do what is in the best long-term interest of the team. Prospects and Prospect Value in Trades Zoll was also asked about young players. In recent years, we have seen teams become “prospect huggers,” reluctant to deal any prospect the organization believes has a chance to be a big-time major leaguer. “Again, every player has their own story and case on that. We’re trying to make the best holistic evaluation on that knowing a lot of the guys we have have a lot of control, and in turn make them valuable for hopefully that whole control window. You’re just trying to find the right timing for those opportunities and common discussions around selling high, selling low and trying to find that right balance. You never really know. …That’s what we spend a lot of time discussing. The return and all those things play into that.” Falvey was then asked if he changes his ask in trades based on the type of player that might be sent away (i.e., if the Twins deal a starter, are they looking for a major league replacement). Falvey responded by saying, “It’s a good question. I don’t know that it’s quite that specific. I think every team now has broadened their likes to some degree, depending on where they are.” But what if a team values something different than the other, like one team holds a pitcher in higher regard than the team they are on? How does that impact talks? Zoll responded by saying, “I know what you’re getting at. I think we’re just trying to make the evaluation we can on what we think the market should be for any given player that we’re getting asked on. If trades happen, it’s because there was some degree of overlap and intersection, not this idea of they’re just overvaluing these players with these trades and in turn the other team is trying to take advantage of that.” Over the years, watching transactions, it is clear that certain teams have relationships with others that help push deals across the finish line. But that is not always the case. Falvey cites that sometimes, variance in opinion helps trades get done, saying, “Despite the relationships we have in the game, and we have relationships with all the teams. It’s sometimes helpful to work with someone who just sees the world differently than you. Then you do find more overlap. It’s like, oh, this is type of player that we like, this is the type of player they like. When you like all the same types of players, it gets a little trickier to find those intersections.” Rule 5 Draft and MLB Draft Placement The Rule 5 Draft is also an event that takes place at the winter meetings. The Rule 5 Draft allows teams to select certain minor league players from other organizations who are not on their club's 40-man roster, provided the selected player meets specific professional service time requirements. Its primary purpose is to prevent organizations from hoarding talented players in the minor leagues who might otherwise be ready for a chance to compete at the major league level. “We’re a full 40 right now. We can make a move between now and tomorrow.” Falvey said on the Twins' plans for the Rule 5 draft. “If we do, we’ll have that conversation if someone is available. We’ve been thinking about that over the course of the week and working through some different iterations that could allow for us to have an opening.” The MLB Draft is also an important event at the winter meetings. The draft lottery took place on Tuesday evening, and the Twins received the third overall pick. Before the placement of the pick became a reality, Zoll said, “Obviously, the higher the better, and you’re hoping for as high as possible. Once we knew — once we had an indication that it wasn’t going to be the top pick, I know Sean (Johnson) and the scouting group were really hopeful to be in the top three so to land that feels really good.”
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Eugenio Suárez’s Free-Agent Case: More Than the Surface Stats Show
Matthew Nethercott posted an article in MLB
Eugenio Suárez enters free agency as one of baseball’s most intriguing corner-infield bats. His career arc is defined by stretches of genuine star-level output, periods of swing-and-miss concerns, and an underrated defensive and baserunning profile supported by advanced data. Overall Career Suárez debuted with the Detroit Tigers in 2014, but his career truly accelerated after being traded to Cincinnati. Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he became one of MLB’s premier right-handed sluggers. In those two seasons, he posted a combined .911 OPS and 133 wRC+, including a career-best 4.5 fWAR in 2018 and the 49-homer explosion in 2019. His peak power stretch was supported by real underlying juice — his xSLG hovered near .508 over those two years, placing him among the league’s elite. However, the shortened 2020 season marked the beginning of a decline in his contact quality and plate discipline. His strikeout rate ballooned to 29%, his xwOBA fell toward league average, and his once top-tier contact power became more inconsistent. By 2021, his .198 batting average belied the fact that his expected metrics (xSLG .437, xwOBA .318) suggested he was far closer to an average hitter than raw production indicated—an early sign of the split between Suárez’s underlying profile and his surface numbers. After being traded to Seattle before the 2022 season, Suárez rediscovered some stability. He delivered 3.9 fWAR across 2022–23, fueled not only by 25–30 homer pop but by surprisingly strong third-base defense. In 2023, Statcast rated him as a top-quartile defender by Outs Above Average (OAA) during that span, transforming him from a bat-first slugger into a more complete player. Even with contact issues persisting, his xwOBACON and Barrel rates remained above league average — signaling a skill set that still punished mistakes. 2025 Season While Suárez’s surface offensive numbers dipped again in 2025, advanced metrics paint a more nuanced picture. His average exit velocity, 90.2 MPH, and Hard-Hit rate, 47.6, remained consistent with his career norms. Plate discipline remains the key variable. Suárez has continued to post a Chase% near career highs at 31%. But when he makes contact, he still produces damage. Suárez’s 2025 Barrel% sat at 14.3%, above league average, and his 95th-percentile max-EV readings confirm that his raw power remains genuine. Contract Outlook Suárez enters free agency as a veteran slugger whose value rests on a combination of durable power, defensive stability, and the promise of positive regression backed by expected stats. Teams looking for a middle-order presence with consistent 25-homer potential will see his profile as appealing, particularly because his xwOBA and xSLG continue to run ahead of his traditional stats, suggesting there’s more production available with even modest BABIP normalization. We predict his market to settle around three years at around $18 million per season, depending on how teams weigh upside against swing-and-miss concerns. Clubs that value expected metrics and park-adjusted power could view Suárez as a strong bounce-back candidate—especially those needing a stabilizing right-handed bat at third base. -
Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images Eugenio Suárez enters free agency as one of baseball’s most intriguing corner-infield bats. His career arc is defined by stretches of genuine star-level output, periods of swing-and-miss concerns, and an underrated defensive and baserunning profile supported by advanced data. Overall Career Suárez debuted with the Detroit Tigers in 2014, but his career truly accelerated after being traded to Cincinnati. Across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he became one of MLB’s premier right-handed sluggers. In those two seasons, he posted a combined .911 OPS and 133 wRC+, including a career-best 4.5 fWAR in 2018 and the 49-homer explosion in 2019. His peak power stretch was supported by real underlying juice — his xSLG hovered near .508 over those two years, placing him among the league’s elite. However, the shortened 2020 season marked the beginning of a decline in his contact quality and plate discipline. His strikeout rate ballooned to 29%, his xwOBA fell toward league average, and his once top-tier contact power became more inconsistent. By 2021, his .198 batting average belied the fact that his expected metrics (xSLG .437, xwOBA .318) suggested he was far closer to an average hitter than raw production indicated—an early sign of the split between Suárez’s underlying profile and his surface numbers. After being traded to Seattle before the 2022 season, Suárez rediscovered some stability. He delivered 3.9 fWAR across 2022–23, fueled not only by 25–30 homer pop but by surprisingly strong third-base defense. In 2023, Statcast rated him as a top-quartile defender by Outs Above Average (OAA) during that span, transforming him from a bat-first slugger into a more complete player. Even with contact issues persisting, his xwOBACON and Barrel rates remained above league average — signaling a skill set that still punished mistakes. 2025 Season While Suárez’s surface offensive numbers dipped again in 2025, advanced metrics paint a more nuanced picture. His average exit velocity, 90.2 MPH, and Hard-Hit rate, 47.6, remained consistent with his career norms. Plate discipline remains the key variable. Suárez has continued to post a Chase% near career highs at 31%. But when he makes contact, he still produces damage. Suárez’s 2025 Barrel% sat at 14.3%, above league average, and his 95th-percentile max-EV readings confirm that his raw power remains genuine. Contract Outlook Suárez enters free agency as a veteran slugger whose value rests on a combination of durable power, defensive stability, and the promise of positive regression backed by expected stats. Teams looking for a middle-order presence with consistent 25-homer potential will see his profile as appealing, particularly because his xwOBA and xSLG continue to run ahead of his traditional stats, suggesting there’s more production available with even modest BABIP normalization. We predict his market to settle around three years at around $18 million per season, depending on how teams weigh upside against swing-and-miss concerns. Clubs that value expected metrics and park-adjusted power could view Suárez as a strong bounce-back candidate—especially those needing a stabilizing right-handed bat at third base. View full article
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Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / © James A. Pittman-Imagn Images Friday was MLB’s non-tender deadline. Among the flurry of names that were non-tendered based on roster non-factors or lack of roster sports, there were some interesting pitchers – specifically relievers – that were non-tendered that can make an impact on another roster in 2026. Colin Holderman Colin Holderman’s 2025 season exposed clear regression under the hood. His K-BB% fell below league average, his xERA ballooned to 5.70 from 4.20 in 2024, and opponents posted an xwOBA 48 points higher than in 2024, suggesting his fastball/slider shape became far more hittable. Yet the underlying traits that once made him a late-inning weapon—such as a 52.8% ground-ball rate, a sinker that still generated above-average arm-side run. With small mechanical clean-ups and improved pitch tunneling, his peripherals suggest he could return to being a reliable high-leverage reliever rather than a reclamation project. Albert Suárez Despite flashes of effectiveness, Suárez’s 2025 season was marred by injuries, but a lot of his underlying metrics looked solid. In the small sample size of 11 2/3 innings, his xERA lowered to 2.57 from 4.05 in 2024. Hitters also posted a .250 xwOBA against him, which is well below league average, but there are also not a lot of outings to base this on. Still, his 41.9% ground-ball rate and elite 32.3% hard-hit suppression remained intact, suggesting that with improved command and a stabilized walk rate, there’s a very real path back to league-average — or even above-average — production. Evan Phillips Evan Phillips was once closing games for the Dodgers, and now finds himself without a job after an injury-riddled season. His decline was steep, with his xwOBA jumping from .282 in 2024, which is still below league average, to .234 in 2025, and his out-of-zone swing percentage dipped to its lowest mark since 2030 — both signs that his fastball/slider combo lost some of its deception and late life. Phillips’ underlying movement profiles remained close to career norms, and despite diminished results, his hard-hit rate stayed below league average. With mechanical refinement and better pitch sequencing, teams, including the Dodgers, believe he could rebound into a high-leverage setup role, even if his days as a full-time closer are behind him. Max Kranick Max Kranick’s downturn has been tied directly to injuries, including the 2022 Tommy John surgery and recurring shoulder setbacks that disrupted his development and mechanics. His slider whiff rate fell to 15.2% from 29.1%, and he could not stay healthy. Still, underlying metrics like a 36.4% ground-ball rate and above-average induced vertical break on the four-seamer suggest that if he regains his pre-injury velocity and consistency, he could rebound into a serviceable back-end starter or multi-inning relief weapon. John King John King’s underlying metrics painted a clear picture of his 2025 regression. His sinker's average exit velocity jumped from 88.5 mph to 91.7 mph, leading to a spike in hard contact. His xERA, sitting at 4.83, far outpaced his actual ERA, suggesting that diminished command and a drop in chase rate, down nearly five points from 2024, made his margin for error razor-thin. However, King’s sinker still generated a +0 run value, and his whiff rate quietly rebounded late in the season, hinting that with improved location and a modest velocity uptick, he could rediscover his role as a dependable ground-ball specialist in 2026. View full article
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Five Non-Tendered Relievers Who Could Become 2026 Bounce-Back Players
Matthew Nethercott posted an article in MLB
Friday was MLB’s non-tender deadline. Among the flurry of names that were non-tendered based on roster non-factors or lack of roster sports, there were some interesting pitchers – specifically relievers – that were non-tendered that can make an impact on another roster in 2026. Colin Holderman Colin Holderman’s 2025 season exposed clear regression under the hood. His K-BB% fell below league average, his xERA ballooned to 5.70 from 4.20 in 2024, and opponents posted an xwOBA 48 points higher than in 2024, suggesting his fastball/slider shape became far more hittable. Yet the underlying traits that once made him a late-inning weapon—such as a 52.8% ground-ball rate, a sinker that still generated above-average arm-side run. With small mechanical clean-ups and improved pitch tunneling, his peripherals suggest he could return to being a reliable high-leverage reliever rather than a reclamation project. Albert Suárez Despite flashes of effectiveness, Suárez’s 2025 season was marred by injuries, but a lot of his underlying metrics looked solid. In the small sample size of 11 2/3 innings, his xERA lowered to 2.57 from 4.05 in 2024. Hitters also posted a .250 xwOBA against him, which is well below league average, but there are also not a lot of outings to base this on. Still, his 41.9% ground-ball rate and elite 32.3% hard-hit suppression remained intact, suggesting that with improved command and a stabilized walk rate, there’s a very real path back to league-average — or even above-average — production. Evan Phillips Evan Phillips was once closing games for the Dodgers, and now finds himself without a job after an injury-riddled season. His decline was steep, with his xwOBA jumping from .282 in 2024, which is still below league average, to .234 in 2025, and his out-of-zone swing percentage dipped to its lowest mark since 2030 — both signs that his fastball/slider combo lost some of its deception and late life. Phillips’ underlying movement profiles remained close to career norms, and despite diminished results, his hard-hit rate stayed below league average. With mechanical refinement and better pitch sequencing, teams, including the Dodgers, believe he could rebound into a high-leverage setup role, even if his days as a full-time closer are behind him. Max Kranick Max Kranick’s downturn has been tied directly to injuries, including the 2022 Tommy John surgery and recurring shoulder setbacks that disrupted his development and mechanics. His slider whiff rate fell to 15.2% from 29.1%, and he could not stay healthy. Still, underlying metrics like a 36.4% ground-ball rate and above-average induced vertical break on the four-seamer suggest that if he regains his pre-injury velocity and consistency, he could rebound into a serviceable back-end starter or multi-inning relief weapon. John King John King’s underlying metrics painted a clear picture of his 2025 regression. His sinker's average exit velocity jumped from 88.5 mph to 91.7 mph, leading to a spike in hard contact. His xERA, sitting at 4.83, far outpaced his actual ERA, suggesting that diminished command and a drop in chase rate, down nearly five points from 2024, made his margin for error razor-thin. However, King’s sinker still generated a +0 run value, and his whiff rate quietly rebounded late in the season, hinting that with improved location and a modest velocity uptick, he could rediscover his role as a dependable ground-ball specialist in 2026.- 3 comments
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Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Friday was MLB’s non-tender deadline. Among the flurry of names non-tendered for roster non-factors or lack of roster sports, some interesting position players were non-tendered who could make an impact on another roster in 2026. Adolis García The falloff in Adolis García's performance needs to be studied. Once looking like one of baseball’s rising stars, García fell off hard after the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run. In 2024, his underlying metrics collapsed: his xwOBA dropped from .354 to .301, while his chase rate ballooned to a career-high 35.8%, which affected his contact quality. By 2025, the regression deepened as his hard-hit rate fell below 40% for the first time, and his barrel % plummeted nearly six points as pitchers exploited his expanding zone profile. García could be a candidate on a team looking for a backup outfielder, and maybe a different voice and team situation, in a hitters' ballpark, helps García turn around his career. Jonah Heim A switch-hitting catcher, Heim showed a lot of promise, both behind the plate and as a bat in 2022 and 2023. Since the start of 2024, Heim has regressed significantly. In 2024, Heim’s quality of contact cratered, posting a career-low 32.8% hard-hit rate and an xwOBA of just .279, both bottom-third among qualified catchers. His struggles continued in 2025, where his framing runs dropped to -3 and his blocking value declined for a second straight year, while his .301 xwOBA and 85 wRC+ underscored that the bat never fully rebounded. Still, Heim has potential and could be a nice change of scenery candidate for a team looking for a backup catcher. Alexander Canario A former top prospect, Alexander Canario, has underperformed to this point in his major league career. Across his first 300 MLB at-bats, Canario has posted a below-average 88 wRC+, with a .296 xwOBA that suggests his contact quality hasn’t supported league-average production. His 32% strikeout rate and 28th-percentile whiff rate have limited his ability to tap into his raw power. At the same time, his .394 xSLG indicates that even his hardest contact hasn’t consistently translated into game power. Still, Canario has some potential and could be a good backup outfielder with a much higher ceiling. Mike Tauchman Mike Tauchman had a solid 2025 season for the White Sox, who are looking to get younger. The veteran outfielder quietly delivered strong underlying metrics, posting a 10.8% walk rate and a 22.4% chase rate, both among the best on the team, which helped stabilize a lineup light on on-base percentage. His quality-of-contact profile also ticked up, finishing the year with a .343 xwOBA and a 41% hard-hit rate, signaling that his production was backed by sustainable peripherals. Even entering his mid-30s, Tauchman’s plate discipline, defensive versatility, and improved batted-ball data give him sneaky upside as a high-floor fourth outfielder or low-cost everyday option for a rebuilding club. JJ Bleday JJ Bleday came into the 2025 season as the primary center fielder, looking to build off his solid 2024 campaign. His quality of contact fell off sharply, as his xwOBA dropped from .344 in 2024 to a below-average .303 in 2025, and his hard-hit rate dipped nearly eight percentage points. Bleday also struggled to elevate the ball with consistency—his average launch angle fell from 14.1° to 10.6°, contributing to a ground-ball rate that spiked to 47%. Defensively, his Outs Above Average slipped from +4 to -2, signaling a noticeable step back in both range and closing speed in center field. Bleday has potential, and maybe being in a different situation will help unlock it. View full article
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Five Non-Tendered Hitters Who Could Become 2026 Bounce-Back Players
Matthew Nethercott posted an article in MLB
Friday was MLB’s non-tender deadline. Among the flurry of names non-tendered for roster non-factors or lack of roster sports, some interesting position players were non-tendered who could make an impact on another roster in 2026. Adolis García The falloff in Adolis García's performance needs to be studied. Once looking like one of baseball’s rising stars, García fell off hard after the Rangers’ 2023 World Series run. In 2024, his underlying metrics collapsed: his xwOBA dropped from .354 to .301, while his chase rate ballooned to a career-high 35.8%, which affected his contact quality. By 2025, the regression deepened as his hard-hit rate fell below 40% for the first time, and his barrel % plummeted nearly six points as pitchers exploited his expanding zone profile. García could be a candidate on a team looking for a backup outfielder, and maybe a different voice and team situation, in a hitters' ballpark, helps García turn around his career. Jonah Heim A switch-hitting catcher, Heim showed a lot of promise, both behind the plate and as a bat in 2022 and 2023. Since the start of 2024, Heim has regressed significantly. In 2024, Heim’s quality of contact cratered, posting a career-low 32.8% hard-hit rate and an xwOBA of just .279, both bottom-third among qualified catchers. His struggles continued in 2025, where his framing runs dropped to -3 and his blocking value declined for a second straight year, while his .301 xwOBA and 85 wRC+ underscored that the bat never fully rebounded. Still, Heim has potential and could be a nice change of scenery candidate for a team looking for a backup catcher. Alexander Canario A former top prospect, Alexander Canario, has underperformed to this point in his major league career. Across his first 300 MLB at-bats, Canario has posted a below-average 88 wRC+, with a .296 xwOBA that suggests his contact quality hasn’t supported league-average production. His 32% strikeout rate and 28th-percentile whiff rate have limited his ability to tap into his raw power. At the same time, his .394 xSLG indicates that even his hardest contact hasn’t consistently translated into game power. Still, Canario has some potential and could be a good backup outfielder with a much higher ceiling. Mike Tauchman Mike Tauchman had a solid 2025 season for the White Sox, who are looking to get younger. The veteran outfielder quietly delivered strong underlying metrics, posting a 10.8% walk rate and a 22.4% chase rate, both among the best on the team, which helped stabilize a lineup light on on-base percentage. His quality-of-contact profile also ticked up, finishing the year with a .343 xwOBA and a 41% hard-hit rate, signaling that his production was backed by sustainable peripherals. Even entering his mid-30s, Tauchman’s plate discipline, defensive versatility, and improved batted-ball data give him sneaky upside as a high-floor fourth outfielder or low-cost everyday option for a rebuilding club. JJ Bleday JJ Bleday came into the 2025 season as the primary center fielder, looking to build off his solid 2024 campaign. His quality of contact fell off sharply, as his xwOBA dropped from .344 in 2024 to a below-average .303 in 2025, and his hard-hit rate dipped nearly eight percentage points. Bleday also struggled to elevate the ball with consistency—his average launch angle fell from 14.1° to 10.6°, contributing to a ground-ball rate that spiked to 47%. Defensively, his Outs Above Average slipped from +4 to -2, signaling a noticeable step back in both range and closing speed in center field. Bleday has potential, and maybe being in a different situation will help unlock it.- 1 comment
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Image courtesy of MLB dividing its ESPN package into several different packages could possibly attract Netflix and other streamers. Getty Images Major League Baseball announced today that they have reached media deals for the 2026-2028 season with NBC, ESPN, and Netflix. The story was first reported by Sports Business Journal and The Athletic. ESPN Back in February, ESPN opted out of its contract with MLB, ending its run of carrying “Sunday Night Baseball” on its network. Both sides made clear they wanted to rework the deal, not end it entirely. ESPN will now receive the rights to all 30 teams’ out-of-market games, rather than being on the MLB app. ESPN will also host 30 exclusive weeknight games during the regular season. ESPN will also have the rights to six teams, Guardians, Padres, Twins, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Mariners, with full media rights. MLB took over these rights beginning in the 2024 season after its regional sports networks were absorbed. ESPN Radio will continue its coverage of “Sunday Night Baseball” and the World Series. NBC/Peacock NBC has officially completed its quest to conquer the Sports Day on Sunday. NBC now hosts the contracts of “Sunday Night Football”, “Sunday Night Basketball”, and now “Sunday Night Baseball”. NBC confirmed to The Athletic that the NFL and NBA will receive priority, and when those games are on, MLB games will be featured on Peacock. All MLB games on NBC will also be simulcast on Peacock for those without cable. NBC’s first game will take place on the second night of the MLB season from Chavez Ravine as the World Champion Dodgers will hoist their second consecutive banner before taking on the division rival Diamondbacks. The Wild Card round of the postseason will also be featured on NBC, after previously being on ESPN. Peacock will also feature Sunday morning games, which it did prior to the 2024 season, when Roku took over the contract. Netflix Netflix will be getting specialty games and events as part of its first contract with MLB. The 2025 season will open on Netflix with “MLB Opening Night” from the Bay Area, featuring the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants. Netflix will also receive the “Field of Dreams” game, making a return for the first time since 2022, featuring the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins. The Home Run Derby will also make the transition to Netflix, which should be a nice change of pace from ESPN. Long-term Impact on Baseball The new media deal will be one of the biggest broadcast restructuring deals in MLB history, with a long-term impact. Commissioner Manfred has been very open about wanting to absorb the media rights deals of every team in the league. With ESPN taking over the six teams under MLB control, that is the first step towards achieving that goal. ESPN hosting these contracts is a pilot for things to come, and could be a good thing for smaller markets. Using a major platform like ESPN, which already has a following and its own promotion, will allow MLB to see how this works and potentially allow smaller-market teams to earn more revenue from this TV rights deal. Currently, the small-market teams don’t earn much from their TV rights deals because they don’t own them, as the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets, among others, do. The teams that own their RSNs get the direct revenue from viewership and subscriptions, while the small-market teams have to pay out and get very little revenue back. Manfred’s plan to move away from the RSNs entirely and host the new TV deals on a platform like ESPN would eliminate this disparity, and it would be the first step. View full article
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MLB Gives Control Of MLB.tv To ESPN; Signs Deal With Peacock, Netflix
Matthew Nethercott posted an article in MLB
Major League Baseball announced today that they have reached media deals for the 2026-2028 season with NBC, ESPN, and Netflix. The story was first reported by Sports Business Journal and The Athletic. ESPN Back in February, ESPN opted out of its contract with MLB, ending its run of carrying “Sunday Night Baseball” on its network. Both sides made clear they wanted to rework the deal, not end it entirely. ESPN will now receive the rights to all 30 teams’ out-of-market games, rather than being on the MLB app. ESPN will also host 30 exclusive weeknight games during the regular season. ESPN will also have the rights to six teams, Guardians, Padres, Twins, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Mariners, with full media rights. MLB took over these rights beginning in the 2024 season after its regional sports networks were absorbed. ESPN Radio will continue its coverage of “Sunday Night Baseball” and the World Series. NBC/Peacock NBC has officially completed its quest to conquer the Sports Day on Sunday. NBC now hosts the contracts of “Sunday Night Football”, “Sunday Night Basketball”, and now “Sunday Night Baseball”. NBC confirmed to The Athletic that the NFL and NBA will receive priority, and when those games are on, MLB games will be featured on Peacock. All MLB games on NBC will also be simulcast on Peacock for those without cable. NBC’s first game will take place on the second night of the MLB season from Chavez Ravine as the World Champion Dodgers will hoist their second consecutive banner before taking on the division rival Diamondbacks. The Wild Card round of the postseason will also be featured on NBC, after previously being on ESPN. Peacock will also feature Sunday morning games, which it did prior to the 2024 season, when Roku took over the contract. Netflix Netflix will be getting specialty games and events as part of its first contract with MLB. The 2025 season will open on Netflix with “MLB Opening Night” from the Bay Area, featuring the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants. Netflix will also receive the “Field of Dreams” game, making a return for the first time since 2022, featuring the Philadelphia Phillies and Minnesota Twins. The Home Run Derby will also make the transition to Netflix, which should be a nice change of pace from ESPN. Long-term Impact on Baseball The new media deal will be one of the biggest broadcast restructuring deals in MLB history, with a long-term impact. Commissioner Manfred has been very open about wanting to absorb the media rights deals of every team in the league. With ESPN taking over the six teams under MLB control, that is the first step towards achieving that goal. ESPN hosting these contracts is a pilot for things to come, and could be a good thing for smaller markets. Using a major platform like ESPN, which already has a following and its own promotion, will allow MLB to see how this works and potentially allow smaller-market teams to earn more revenue from this TV rights deal. Currently, the small-market teams don’t earn much from their TV rights deals because they don’t own them, as the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets, among others, do. The teams that own their RSNs get the direct revenue from viewership and subscriptions, while the small-market teams have to pay out and get very little revenue back. Manfred’s plan to move away from the RSNs entirely and host the new TV deals on a platform like ESPN would eliminate this disparity, and it would be the first step. -
Left-hander Framber Valdez is exploring free agency for the first time in his career. Valdez is one of the best starters on the free agent market, but he won’t come without some concerns for those who sign him. Valdez's Career Thus Far Valdez debuted for the Astros in 2018 and quickly developed into one of Houston’s most dependable arms. A classic big-game pitcher during the Astros’ run of American League dominance, Valdez has been no stranger to the postseason spotlight — although his playoff results have been uneven compared to his regular-season success. From 2022 to 2024, he was one of the more consistent starters in baseball, posting a 3.28 FIP, holding opponents to a .286 wOBA, and allowing just a .290 xwOBA, showcasing his ability to limit hard contact while generating elite ground-ball rates, peaking with a 70.4% groundball rate in 2021. During that stretch, he logged back-to-back 180+ inning seasons and continued to anchor Houston’s rotation with his sinker/curveball-heavy arsenal. However, Valdez has been on a downward trend recently, and 2025 marked his worst season since 2021. His command wavered, his walk rate ticked up, and hitters squared him up more often. Valdez finished the year with a 4.12 FIP, a sharp jump from his peak form, while opponents posted a .324 wOBA against him. Even more concerning, his .338 xwOBA allowed indicated that the contact quality he surrendered was even worse than the surface results suggested. The sinker wasn’t generating the same depth, his curveball lacked its usual bite, and his overall groundball rate (59.4%) dipped to its lowest point in four seasons. Valdez also has on-field controversy surrounding him, which was highlighted during a game this season. With the bases loaded and two outs against the Yankees in September, Valdez was struggling in the start. Trent Grisham stepped up to the plate, and the catcher, Cesar Salazar, tried to get Valdez to step off the mound for a talk. Valdez did not listen, and he gave up a back-breaking grand slam. On the next pitch, Valdez crossed up his catcher, creating confusion. While the two reconciled after the game and blamed the incident on PitchCom confusion, the tension in the moment was obvious. Valdez Contract Projections Valdez is the top left-hander on the market, and ESPN projected him to earn a contract of 6 years and approximately $168 million, or roughly $28 million per year. When it comes to possible landing spots, several clubs appear poised to pursue Valdez. The main teams that seem to be involved for Valdez’s services include the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, and Cubs. Valdez's contract will likely be limited by his age. He is turning 32 years old later this month, and his turn downward in 2025 could be a concern for interested teams. Of those teams, I see the Blue Jays as the best fit. Adding a lefty to the Toronto rotation should be a goal for the Jays, and Valdez is the best one on the market. Valdez has experience pitching in the American League and against the AL East teams in the biggest spots. Toronto’s biggest need this offseason is a starter, and Valdez seems like the perfect fit, especially with the great Toronto defense behind him.
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Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Left-hander Framber Valdez is exploring free agency for the first time in his career. Valdez is one of the best starters on the free agent market, but he won’t come without some concerns for those who sign him. Valdez's Career Thus Far Valdez debuted for the Astros in 2018 and quickly developed into one of Houston’s most dependable arms. A classic big-game pitcher during the Astros’ run of American League dominance, Valdez has been no stranger to the postseason spotlight — although his playoff results have been uneven compared to his regular-season success. From 2022 to 2024, he was one of the more consistent starters in baseball, posting a 3.28 FIP, holding opponents to a .286 wOBA, and allowing just a .290 xwOBA, showcasing his ability to limit hard contact while generating elite ground-ball rates, peaking with a 70.4% groundball rate in 2021. During that stretch, he logged back-to-back 180+ inning seasons and continued to anchor Houston’s rotation with his sinker/curveball-heavy arsenal. However, Valdez has been on a downward trend recently, and 2025 marked his worst season since 2021. His command wavered, his walk rate ticked up, and hitters squared him up more often. Valdez finished the year with a 4.12 FIP, a sharp jump from his peak form, while opponents posted a .324 wOBA against him. Even more concerning, his .338 xwOBA allowed indicated that the contact quality he surrendered was even worse than the surface results suggested. The sinker wasn’t generating the same depth, his curveball lacked its usual bite, and his overall groundball rate (59.4%) dipped to its lowest point in four seasons. Valdez also has on-field controversy surrounding him, which was highlighted during a game this season. With the bases loaded and two outs against the Yankees in September, Valdez was struggling in the start. Trent Grisham stepped up to the plate, and the catcher, Cesar Salazar, tried to get Valdez to step off the mound for a talk. Valdez did not listen, and he gave up a back-breaking grand slam. On the next pitch, Valdez crossed up his catcher, creating confusion. While the two reconciled after the game and blamed the incident on PitchCom confusion, the tension in the moment was obvious. Valdez Contract Projections Valdez is the top left-hander on the market, and ESPN projected him to earn a contract of 6 years and approximately $168 million, or roughly $28 million per year. When it comes to possible landing spots, several clubs appear poised to pursue Valdez. The main teams that seem to be involved for Valdez’s services include the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Orioles, and Cubs. Valdez's contract will likely be limited by his age. He is turning 32 years old later this month, and his turn downward in 2025 could be a concern for interested teams. Of those teams, I see the Blue Jays as the best fit. Adding a lefty to the Toronto rotation should be a goal for the Jays, and Valdez is the best one on the market. Valdez has experience pitching in the American League and against the AL East teams in the biggest spots. Toronto’s biggest need this offseason is a starter, and Valdez seems like the perfect fit, especially with the great Toronto defense behind him. View full article
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Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Right-hander Michael King is set to hit free agency following an injury-riddled season with the Padres. When healthy, King has proven to be one of the better starters in baseball, but throughout his career, King has struggled to stay on the field. King's Career Thus Far Michael King debuted for the Yankees in 2019, appearing in just one game before becoming a regular contributor in 2020. He began his career as a reliever, developing into one of the most consistent bullpen arms in baseball thanks to his elite command and ability to miss bats. In 2022 and 2023, King posted a sub-3.00 FIP with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a walk rate under 7%, placing him among the league’s most efficient multi-inning relievers. Toward the end of the 2023 season, the Yankees transitioned King into the rotation, and he thrived. King generated a 2.45 FIP, 29% strikeout rate, and 6% walk rate across 40 1/3 innings. His pitch mix, highlighted by a heavy 95-mph sinker, a sharp sweeping slider, and a high-spin four-seam fastball, his stuff translated seamlessly to the rotation, with his changeup and curveball providing additional weapons against left-handed hitters. King was traded to the Padres in December 2023 as a key piece of the Juan Soto trade. In his first full season as a starter, King made 30 starts and established himself as a legitimate frontline arm, posting a FIP around 3.10, a strikeout rate of 28%, and a WHIP near 1.10 over 173 innings. After an uneven start, he settled into form, limiting barrels and ranking among National League leaders in ground-ball rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. King’s 2025 season, however, was disrupted by injuries, including a shoulder impingement and left knee inflammation; he was restricted to just 15 starts. Even so, King maintained strong underlying metrics, including a 3.60 FIP, 26% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate over 73 innings. Contract Projections & Team Fit King enters free agency as one of the more intriguing arms on the market. Contract projections vary widely: some insiders expect King to command a three- or four-year deal in the $55–60 million range (around $18–20 million annually), while others believe a four-year pact worth closer to $100 million is possible if bidding intensifies. Several teams have already been connected to King’s market. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are both searching for mid-rotation stability and could view King as a lower-cost alternative to the top-tier arms. King is particularly intriguing for the Red Sox because of how he might pitch in Fenway Park. As a right-hander who induces a high number of ground balls and limits hard contact to left-handed hitters, King’s arsenal would play perfectly in Boston’s home environment, where the short left-field wall can be punishing to fly-ball pitchers. His sinker-slider combination would help neutralize pull-heavy lefties and keep the ball on the ground. Many of the same things could be said for the Cubs and Wrigley Field; with notoriously-volatile park conditions so unpredictable, and the Cubs offering solid infield defense, King could be a fit on the North Side of Chicago. View full article
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Right-hander Michael King is set to hit free agency following an injury-riddled season with the Padres. When healthy, King has proven to be one of the better starters in baseball, but throughout his career, King has struggled to stay on the field. King's Career Thus Far Michael King debuted for the Yankees in 2019, appearing in just one game before becoming a regular contributor in 2020. He began his career as a reliever, developing into one of the most consistent bullpen arms in baseball thanks to his elite command and ability to miss bats. In 2022 and 2023, King posted a sub-3.00 FIP with a strikeout rate north of 30% and a walk rate under 7%, placing him among the league’s most efficient multi-inning relievers. Toward the end of the 2023 season, the Yankees transitioned King into the rotation, and he thrived. King generated a 2.45 FIP, 29% strikeout rate, and 6% walk rate across 40 1/3 innings. His pitch mix, highlighted by a heavy 95-mph sinker, a sharp sweeping slider, and a high-spin four-seam fastball, his stuff translated seamlessly to the rotation, with his changeup and curveball providing additional weapons against left-handed hitters. King was traded to the Padres in December 2023 as a key piece of the Juan Soto trade. In his first full season as a starter, King made 30 starts and established himself as a legitimate frontline arm, posting a FIP around 3.10, a strikeout rate of 28%, and a WHIP near 1.10 over 173 innings. After an uneven start, he settled into form, limiting barrels and ranking among National League leaders in ground-ball rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. King’s 2025 season, however, was disrupted by injuries, including a shoulder impingement and left knee inflammation; he was restricted to just 15 starts. Even so, King maintained strong underlying metrics, including a 3.60 FIP, 26% strikeout rate, and 7% walk rate over 73 innings. Contract Projections & Team Fit King enters free agency as one of the more intriguing arms on the market. Contract projections vary widely: some insiders expect King to command a three- or four-year deal in the $55–60 million range (around $18–20 million annually), while others believe a four-year pact worth closer to $100 million is possible if bidding intensifies. Several teams have already been connected to King’s market. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs are both searching for mid-rotation stability and could view King as a lower-cost alternative to the top-tier arms. King is particularly intriguing for the Red Sox because of how he might pitch in Fenway Park. As a right-hander who induces a high number of ground balls and limits hard contact to left-handed hitters, King’s arsenal would play perfectly in Boston’s home environment, where the short left-field wall can be punishing to fly-ball pitchers. His sinker-slider combination would help neutralize pull-heavy lefties and keep the ball on the ground. Many of the same things could be said for the Cubs and Wrigley Field; with notoriously-volatile park conditions so unpredictable, and the Cubs offering solid infield defense, King could be a fit on the North Side of Chicago.

