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JUPITER, FL—Kyle Stowers drew attention during his first spring training in the Miami Marlins organization, but for the wrong reasons. In Grapefruit League games, he went 7-for-40 with a .540 OPS and looked like a candidate to be optioned to the minor leagues. It was a continuation of the 2024 season in terms of being unable to unlock the raw power that the Marlins desperately needed to add to their lineup. One year later, as Marlins position players reported to camp for Monday's first full-squad workout, Stowers was surrounded by reporters at his clubhouse locker and by fans once the workout began. That's what happens when you slash .288/.368/.544/.912 with 25 home runs, 73 RBI and a 149 wRC+ in what was an All-Star-worthy 2025 season. "I think the good news is, if I played poorly in spring, everyone would be like, 'Oh, he's right on pace with last year,'" Stowers said jokingly. "Kyle just went out there and continually made adjustments," said manager Clayton McCullough. "And he's gonna have to make adjustments again this year...If you don't adjust in the major leagues, you won't last long." Stowers and the Marlins were engaged in contract extension talks this offseason. The Athletic reported that the sides were far apart, with Stowers' camp asking for about $100M and the Marlins valuing him closer to $50M. The 28-year-old outfielder confirmed that no formal offer was made and disputed the $100M figure. "I'm just so focused on this year," said Stowers. "I got four years of control left. I understand it and you have every right to play my control out. I'm just so excited to be here, so grateful to be in this organization. Was bummed we didn't get something figured out. Would love to someday, but at the same time, let's take care of this year and we'll go from there." Stowers missed the final quarter of the season due to an oblique strain, but comes into camp 100% healthy. He will not let himself "lose the competitive side of things" just because his roster spot is more secure entering 2026. Marlins principal owner Bruce Sherman applied some extra pressure during his Monday morning press conference, saying that "our expectations are really high for him." Becoming a father for the first time earlier this month gives him even more motivation to avoid complacency. "I've gone into every single spring training my entire career to compete for a job...It's not a passive process. I don't want to lose that edge." Stowers expects his teammates to adopt a similar mentality despite the Marlins' 17-win improvement from the year before. "The reality of it is all 30 teams are trying to get better. From the Dodgers to the last-place team, every single team at the end of the season looks to improve," said Stowers. "The notion that because we won however many games one year, then that many the next, there's not going to be that same guarantee of increase, and we know that. You got to have hunger to go earn it and continue to get as much as we can out of each day." Quick Notes - Miami Marlins chairman and principle owner Bruce Sherman and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix addressed the media. - All 72 players who were invited to Marlins camp have reported on time, per Clayton McCullough. - The following pitchers threw on Monday: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez, Pete Fairbanks, Garrett Acton, Michael Petersen, Bradley Blalock, Patrick Monteverde, Thomas White, Josh White, Dale Stanavich and Karson Milbrandt. - Monday was also our first opportunity to see Griffin Conine and Christopher Morel participating in defensive drills as first basemen. Neither of them have any prior professional experience at the position. View the full article

Monday is supposed to be a day of excitement and hope across Twins Territory. Pitchers and catchers reported last week, and now the remaining position players have joined them. However, there was a noticeable shift in energy at Twins camp on Monday morning. After the first full squad workout of the spring, some concern crept into the clubhouse when Pablo López walked off the mound during a live batting practice session and reported elbow soreness. The right-hander had been scheduled to throw three simulated innings, which represented a heavier workload than most pitchers in camp as he prepares to pitch for Team Venezuela in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. According to the Star Tribune, everything appeared routine until the second pitch of his third inning. That was when López alerted pitching coach Pete Maki to how his elbow felt. Moments later, he walked off the mound, and the session came to an abrupt end. Manager Derek Shelton told reporters that López will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the issue. "Obviously, it's February 16," Shelton said. "After he and Pete talked, we decided, out of an abundance of caution, let's get him off the field and make sure he's OK. We'll get some imaging on it, just because of how important it is and he is to us. I think we'll have more information as we go along." If López is forced to shut down from throwing, it would likely take him out of participation in the World Baseball Classic and could put his Opening Day availability in jeopardy. That would be a significant development for Minnesota, given that López has taken the ball on Opening Day in each of the past three seasons and has established himself as the anchor of the rotation. Last week, López spoke on Inside Twins about how excited he was to represent Venezuela on an international stage. He reflected on his youth and the disappointment of being left off All-Star teams earlier in his career and noted how meaningful it would be to pitch for his country alongside a strong roster and coaching staff. On that episode, López was asked about how he felt entering the season. He reiterated that many of the tests he was doing this winter proved that he was “in the best shape of his life.” That can become a cliche during early spring workouts, but it was clear that he felt better than he had in a long time, especially after injuries limited him to 14 starts last season. Shelton recently emphasized just how vital he is to the Twins' pitching puzzle this spring as the club works through multiple moving pieces on the staff. "I don't know if anybody in that room takes care of himself as well as Pablo does, not only during the season, but in the offseason," Shelton said. "The fact he has awareness of his body, and he and Pete have a strong relationship, and they were able to have a conversation that was like, 'Let's hold off, and take a look here.' " Spring training injuries always feel amplified, especially when they involve the arm of a frontline starter. For now, the Twins will wait on imaging results and hope that an early February scare does not turn into a March setback. The organization built its rotation around López’s reliability and presence atop the staff, and any missed time would create a ripple effect throughout camp. The best-case scenario is that Monday becomes a reminder of why caution matters in February rather than the first chapter of a much larger concern for Minnesota’s pitching plans in 2026. Check back at Twins Daily for more updates as they become available. View the full article

The Miami Marlins will recognize Josh Beckett's contributions to the franchise by inducting him into the team's Hall of Fame this September. A former No. 2 overall MLB Draft pick of the Fish, the Texas right-hander had some inconsistencies during his career, both health-wise and performance-wise, but he peaked as one of MLB's best starters and repeatedly elevated his game in the postseason. Beckett's inclusion in the 2026 HOF class got us wondering: Is he the best homegrown pitcher in franchise history is? Before we get started, we must define what it means to be "homegrown." These are players who were acquired by the Marlins as amateurs either through the draft or international free agency. Since 1992, the Marlins have selected 806 pitchers in the draft and hundreds more internationally. That rules out prominent names like Kevin Brown, Dontrelle Willis, Ricky Nolasco, Aníbal Sánchez, and Sandy Alcantara, as their professional careers commenced with other organizations. This is a discussion reserved for the farm-raised hurlers who had big league success with the organization. To be paid to play baseball professionally is an accomplishment of its own, even more fulfilling if that dream is one day realized at the highest level. But to get to the major leagues and succeed is beyond what most people's imagination would allow for. The "Just Missed" Edward Cabrera (Dominican Republic) would hold the title for best international pitcher signed by the Marlins, as his 7.1 bWAR ranks first among such players. However, being traded to the Chicago Cubs ahead of the 2026 season means we won't be privileged to bask in the fruit of his 2025 breakout. In a career-high 137 ⅓ innings, Cabrera posted a 3.53 ERA, striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. In a similarly valuable vein, Brad Penny, worth 8.1 WAR during his Marlins tenure, could potentially have found his way into the conversation had he not been dealt to the Dodgers at the 2004 trade deadline. Penny posted a trio of near-three-win seasons between 2001 and 2004, including a 2003 season where he pitched to a 2.19 ERA in the club's World Series triumph over the New York Yankees. In the years that immediately followed his departure from 2005 to 2007, Penny experienced his longest sustained run of success, pitching to a 117 ERA+ and making a pair of All-Star teams. Among MLB pitchers to throw at least 500 innings in that span, Penny's 11.3 bWAR ranked 21st, sandwiching him between two future former Marlins, Dan Haren and Javier Vázquez. If we're accounting for relievers, as well, then AJ Ramos is worth mentioning. His 6.6 bWAR is the most among all relief pitchers originally drafted or signed by Miami, and his 2.78 ERA trails only Kevin Brown (2.30) and the late-José Fernández (2.58) for third-lowest among pitchers to throw at least 300 innings for the team. The Big Three The aforementioned Beckett drew comparisons to Nolan Ryan and raced through the minor leagues before debuting with the Marlins at the end of the 2001 season. Beckett was one of just eight pitchers to throw 135 or more innings and finish with an ERA below 4.00 in each season between 2003 and 2005. He is best remembered for his series-clinching shutout thrown on three days' rest in Game 6 of the '03 World Series While his body of work leaves some to be desired for this discussion—a 3.46 ERA and 10.7 bWAR in 609 innings—Beckett's place in Marlins lore is firmly entrenched. Beckett was very briefly teammates with another exceptional "Josh," Josh Johnson. Not only is Johnson's 25.8 bWAR the most of any homegrown Marlins arm, but it's also the highest of any pitcher in the franchise's history. At his best, Johnson was on the short list of best pitchers in baseball. Some notes to illustrate this: - Who are the only two National League pitchers to win the ERA title between 2010 and 2014? Clayton Kershaw, who did it every year from 2011 to 2014, and Johnson, who finished with a 2.30 ERA in a seven-win 2010 season. Were it not for a back injury that limited him to 183 ⅔ innings, Johnson had a case for the first Cy Young in franchise history, ultimately finishing fifth. - Of the 91 pitchers to throw at least 500 innings between 2008 and 2011, only the late Roy Halladay (2.59) and Adam Wainwright (2.68) had a lower ERA than Johnson's 2.80, and his 22.4 bWAR between 2008 and 2012 was the ninth-highest mark in baseball. While injuries took their hold of Johnson far too soon, he was a rare breed. And then, there was Niño. José Fernández exuded so much flare and sheer joy when playing the game. He was also among the most automatic pitchers the game had seen to that point. In merely 471 ⅓ innings he threw in his short life, Fernández dominated, posting a 2.58 ERA and even more impressive 2.44 FIP. In each of his four big league seasons, Fernández finished with an ERA and FIP below 3.00. Of the 109 hurlers to throw at least 450 innings between 2013 and 2016, only three—Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Fernández—finished with a sub-3.00 ERA and better than 10 K/9. With his death in 2016 at only 24 years old, a dark cloud was cast over the city of Miami and Major League Baseball. It still lingers as we approach 10 years since that fateful September day. And the Winner is... Are we rewarding longevity? Peak success? Unrealized talent? I defer to the former, as many a player can find their way to a successful season or two, but to do it consistently is the true separator. And for that, the distinction of "best homegrown pitcher in Marlins franchise history" goes to Josh Johnson. Not only are Johnson's 916 ⅔ innings the fourth-most in franchise history, but his 3.15 ERA is still third when setting the minimum number of innings to 450. Even on a per-inning basis, Johnson's 0.028 bWAR/IP lightly edges out Fernández's 0.0278. Active Contenders The Marlins have a slew of young, promising arms poised to make an impact on the club. Thomas White and Robby Snelling as big leaguers is all but a formality at this point. Kevin Defrank, though only 17, already boasts a fastball that touches triple digits. Noble Meyer, the club's first-round pick in 2023, has been a mixed bag since turning pro, but there's enough there via his mitigation of hits and ability to induce whiffs to suggest he can be better moving forward. Not yet 23 years old but far removed from prospect status, Eury Pérez already owns a 3.71 ERA and 3.9 bWAR in a hair more than season's worth of innings. Then there's Braxton Garrett, one of the better Marlins pitchers between 2023 and 2024, where he posted a 124 ERA+ and 5.6 bWAR. A rebound 2026 after missing all of 2025 due to injury could see him sneak his way into the conversation. View the full article

Connor Prielipp was the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and at one point, he looked like he might go first overall. He’s currently the Twins’ No. 5 prospect and a top-100 overall prospect according to ESPN and Baseball America. On paper, he fits the mold: 6’2”, 210 pounds, left-handed, and armed with multiple swing-and-miss pitches. But his path hasn’t been smooth, and the reason starts early. As a 19-year-old true freshman at the University of Alabama, Prielipp was untouchable. In 21 innings, he didn’t allow a single run. He struck out 35, walked six, and gave up just five hits. It was absurd. At that point, the conversation wasn’t whether he’d be a first-round pick; it was whether he’d go No. 1 overall. Then came 2021. He was limited to seven innings as a sophomore before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Just like that, his trajectory shifted from a fast-rising ace to a rehab project. After recovering from Tommy John, Prielipp made his professional debut in 2023. But after just 6.2 innings, he underwent internal brace surgery to reinforce his surgically repaired UCL. Another setback, and another reset. So before he had even logged meaningful professional innings, he had already endured two significant elbow procedures. That context matters when evaluating everything that’s come since. We finally got a slightly longer look late in 2024. He threw 23.1 innings, 19 at High-A, finishing with a 2.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just seven walks. That looked like the Connor Prielipp the Twins drafted; attacking hitters and missing bats at a high clip. And the advanced numbers supported it. During that 2024 stretch, he posted a swinging-strike rate north of 24% and a CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) around 38%. Those are elite bat-missing indicators, especially for someone working back from major elbow surgery. But the stuff has never been the issue. Prielipp throws a four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup. His fastball typically sits 94-95 mph and can touch 97. It’s a strong pitch, but the slider is the headliner. On the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is league average and 80 is elite, his slider earns a 70. That’s firmly in plus-plus territory, and it’s quite literally one of the best sliders in professional baseball. His fastball carries a 60 grade, and his changeup sits around 55. The underlying data backs those grades up. Last season, he generated a 56% swing-and-miss rate on his slider and a 62% swing-and-miss rate on his changeup when hitters offered. When he’s ahead in the count, he has very legitimate put-away pitches. The overall dominance dipped in 2025. He climbed to Triple-A, throwing 82.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.03 ERA and 98 strikeouts against 31 walks. The strikeouts show the upside, and the stuff still plays. But perhaps most importantly, as Prielipp himself even acknowledged, was staying healthy. "Yeah, like you said, it was a good last year. The main thing for me was just to stay healthy through a full season, and I accomplished that." The concern last season wasn't health-related; it was the 94 hits he allowed and his 1.51 WHIP. A major reason for that was a .394 batting average allowed on balls in play, an extraordinarily high number that’s almost certain to regress. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) sat comfortably lower than his ERA, and his left-on-base rate was under 70%, suggesting some poor sequencing luck. Luckily, improvement doesn’t require a complete overhaul again; it requires tightening command and getting more neutral batted-ball outcomes. Even in 2025, his strikeout-minus-walk profile remained solid, reinforcing that his ability to overpower hitters is very real. But when he misses in the zone, high-level hitters can make him pay. Cleaning up command, especially when ahead in counts, will determine whether he takes another step. One interesting note: he threw his slider roughly a third of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Given his elbow history, that might raise eyebrows since sliders can be taxing. But when you have a 70-grade pitch that generates that many whiffs, it’s hard not to lean on it. In shorter bursts, that pitch could become even more devastating. Which brings us to the bigger question: what is Connor Prielipp long term? When asked about it, he addressed it directly. "So far, I'm told I'm being built up as a starter, so I'm cool with that plan, and we'll see where it goes." 34 of his 35 minor league appearances have been starts. He was drafted as a starter, but between the injury history and the Twins’ rotation depth, it’s fair to wonder if Prielipp's future is in the bullpen. That’s where I personally tend to lean. He’s made just one minor league start where he pitched into the sixth inning. I understand minor league pitchers often work shorter outings, especially while building back up from surgery. But when your average start hovers around three innings, projecting a traditional 180-inning major league starter becomes difficult. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a difference-maker. In fact, he could thrive in a late-inning role. Plenty of elite relievers dominate with two or three pitches. Prielipp has three above-league-average offerings that all move differently and play off each other. The fastball can overpower. The slider can put hitters away. The changeup neutralizes right-handers. In one or two inning bursts, that mix could be electric. He’ll likely open 2026 in Triple-A. But health permitting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the majors at some point during the season, even if it’s a limited look. At this stage, the priority isn’t defining his role; it’s staying healthy and stacking innings. He’s absolutely one of those prospects with massive upside. If everything clicks and his arm holds up, he could anchor the back end of a bullpen, or perhaps carve out a role as a starter. But he’s also the type of arm where, if injuries resurface, we might look back years from now and wonder what could have been. That’s the battle with high-upside pitching prospects. The talent is obvious. The advanced metrics confirm it. Now it’s about durability and refinement. If his left arm cooperates, Connor Prielipp has the tools to be a real impact piece for the Twins someday. And that’s why he remains one of the most fascinating arms in the system. View the full article

The close we get to Opening Day, the more projection systems help illuminate the path (and the season) ahead. PECOTA, for example, loves the Cubs in the 2026 season and thinks they have a 72.5% chance to win their division. However, within that single projection, PECOTA is telling you that the Cubs still have a 27.5% chance of not winning the division. and even a 13.4% chance of missing the playoffs altogether. This is just one system, others will have different outlooks on what the Cubs might be. So, what does the worst-case scenario for the 2026 Chicago Cubs look like? Conversely, what would the best-case scenario look like? Can the team win a World Series? Can they miss the playoffs entirely? Together, let's peer into the crystal ball. What does the worst-case scenario look like for the Cubs? The 2026 season starts with hope, and an immediate boost thereto. The team has an early six-game homestand facing the lowly Nationals and Angels. Alas, cold weather in northern Illinois begins to derail the season right away, as Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a hamstring in frigid Chicago temperatures, forcing rookie Kevin Alcántara into starting duty. The injury keeps the Cubs' center fielder out through May, as the team is cautious bringing him back, and Alcántara struggles to stay afloat. The team let at least one of Chas McCormick and Dylan Carlson leave at the end of spring training, and Justin Dean offers no relief. While Crow-Armstrong eventually returns, the hamstring injury hurts his defense and speed and the lefty has a down season. PECOTA's depth charts project Alcántara and Dean for a combined 385 plate appearances, and Crow-Armstrong for 595. In this scenario, those numbers get reversed. Pitching-wise, the injury bug bites and the itch spreads. Matthew Boyd, fresh off the most productive season of his career, suffers from early-season arm fatigue, with his velocity dipping two ticks on the radar gun. In an effort to give the hurler some time to recover, Colin Rea jumps into the rotation but cannot reproduce his excellent 2025, either. The most tragic of the injuries happens a little later when Edward Cabrera feels something tugging in his elbow. An MRI reveals the worst-case scenario; it's Tommy John surgery for the newest Cub in the rotation. Before it's officially summer, the Cubs have lost their prized pitching addition. Hope begins to turn to frustration, as the much-anticipated return of Justin Steele takes longer than hoped. Steele, much like Boyd, shows diminished velocity in rehab starts in Iowa. After three or four starts, it's clear he's not entirely right yet, so the Cubs shut him down for a few extra weeks. The left-hander eventually returns to his pre-surgery velocity, but it's already July and the team is in a hole. Just up the interstate, Milwaukee has once again turned lemons into lemonade. Kyle Harrison, the once-ballyhooed prospect in San Francisco has added a little velocity and looks like a menace. The Brewers have also found a few more short kings to plug into their lineup and hold a four-game lead over the Cubs headed into the All-Star-Break; there's no stopping that machine. The upstart Pirates nip at the Cubs' heels as well. Jed Hoyer, hoping that the second half of the season will see a return to health for Crow-Armstrong, Boyd, and Steele, mostly sits the deadline out, choosing to add a few depth arms to the bullpen and half-heartedly upgrade the bench. Disaster strikes in mid-August, just as it seems like the Cubs are gaining momentum; Alex Bregman gets hit with a 95-mph fastball, breaking his wrist. While Matt Shaw has been an upgrade over 2025 nightmares Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján on the bench, his low-90s wRC+ doesn't include the second-half pop he had in 2025. Bouncing around the diamond has made his defense more suspect. He's not terrible, but the loss of the Cubs' newfound leader is profound. The Cubs have lost both of their biggest offseason additions. V0F3ZFpfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdjRFhBWURWZ2NBWEZvS1Z3QUhCZ0FDQUZsV1cxTUFBVndDQ0FaUkF3SUJWZ2RS.mp4 August and September begin a downward slide. While the team never truly flatlines, they are an unexciting, frustrating mess. For every 8-run outburst or defensive masterclass, they drop a 2-1 tilt to the Reds, or surrender six to the Pirates at home. Watching becomes a chore, but the team remains just close enough you can never stop watching. When October starts, the Cubs are left out of the playoffs. They finish third in the division, a handful of games behind both Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, with 81 wins. Injuries are mostly to blame, but Ballesteros was just okay; Shaw is unable to sustain gains made last year; Cade Horton's unable to beat his xFIP like he did in 2025; and many of the Cubs' young players will now enter a winter lockout with big questions hanging over them. Fans rage at the team for extending Hoyer last summer. Many wonder if the team will have the same resources in the upcoming offseason that they had this time, to retain players such as Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. What does the best case scenario for the Cubs look like? On the sunny side of Future Street, the Cubs exit spring training with no notable injuries. March 26 is unseasonably warm on the lakefront, with the thermometer reading a balmy 52° F. Alex Bregman, in his first home at-bat as a Cub, sends a ball 105 mph off the bat into the bleachers in left-center; the Wrigley faithful goes wild. The Cubs win a laugher, posting double-digit runs, and everything snowballs from there. In an inversion of last year's gauntlet of a start, the team faces only one playoff team from last season in their first 25 games (the aging, injury-depleted Philadelphia Phillies) and get off to an early NL Central lead. 343d734c-094ec5e3-29839735-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 As the temperature warms, the Cubs remain hot. Offensively, Ballesteros looks like the real deal; Shaw's bat looks like the guy who showed up post-All-Star break last year; and Bregman is the stick that stirs the coffee. Pitching-wise, the Cubs have a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation, as a healthy Cabrera and Horton have both come into their own. The pitching staff requires some Colin Rea interventions, as others in the rotation have small, annoying injuries, but nothing major. Justin Steele continues a smooth rehab, and by the end of May, he's on the cusp of a return. When Jameson Taillon pulls a quad fielding a ball, the lefty is called to the rescue and the Cubs add another excellent arm to the equation. When the All-Star break begins, the Cubs feature heavily in the festivities. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Bregman are selected via fan vote. Hoerner, Horton, Cabrera and Daniel Palencia all make the team, and it's clear to all that Michael Busch got snubbed. In the standings, the Cubs have the second-best record in the NL, while it's clear that at least for this year. the Brewers' pixie dust has run out. The North Siders have no major injuries come July, and the teams add a resurgent AJ Puk from a despondent Arizona Diamondbacks team to round out the bullpen. This team is cruising, and the vibes are great. 445951f4-90da5b2f-2b45ba19-csvm-diamondgcp-asset-4000K.mp4 By September, the division is all but sewn up. The Brewers are in a second-place battle with the Pirates, but both teams are barely on the periphery of the Wild Card race. This allows the Cubs to rest players where they can and give valuable innings to top prospect Jaxon Wiggins. The team enters the playoffs rested, with the second seed in the NL. The Dodgers were good, but haven't been the dominating force many thought they were. The Cubs easily dispatch their first foe in the playoffs in just four games, setting up a date with the new Evil Empire out west. In what is a very hard-fought battle, the Cubs persevere and upset the two-time defending champs. No one player plays hero; but in a full-team effort, the visitors win a decisive Game 7, sending the team to the World Series. Surpassingly, an 83-win Baltimore team has gotten hot and found themselves between the Cubs and a championship. Sadly for the Orioles, they run out of steam. Chicago grounds the Birds in six games, winning the Series in front of their home crowd. Who cares about the impending lockout? The Cubs have climbed the mountain. Celebrate, rejoice and enjoy; we'll worry about the rest later. If your first thought is that these are extreme outcomes and are unlikely: of course they are! Remember, these are the "best" and the "worst" scenarios. For better and worse, both are plausible, however unlikely they may be. PECOTA gives the Cubs a 7% chance to win the World Series and a 17% chance to miss the playoffs outright; neither of these outcomes are impossible. The 2026 season will likely fall somewhere between the best and the worst cases. There will be injuries at inopportune times, to important players. There will be players who overachieve, and some who disappoint. This a very good baseball team, but likely not an elite one. Even in the best-case scenarios I can fathom. they're unlikely to be better over 162 games than the Dodgers. But at the same time, even in the event of the worst-case tailspin, it's probably a team who will offer entertainment and hope until the bitter end. Milwaukee is a good team, probably better than PECOTA thinks they are, but they probably aren't a 95-win team this year, either. Even with injuries, the Cubs have a good roster and should be able to take a few lumps. This is going to be a fun year, but we'll have to wait a little longer to see just how fun it can be. What are your predictions for the 2026 Cubs? Can the best case scenario of winning a Title happen? What's your worst case outcome? Sound off in the comments below! View the full article

As all San Diego Padres fans know, the prospective sale of the franchise — which the Seidler family has been looking into since at least the start of the offseason — has limited what the front office can do to keep this current window of contention open as long as possible. When Mike Shildt stepped down, it was fresh-faced Craig Stammen who replaced him, rather than another veteran with a long history of postseason success. When Dylan Cease left for a $200 million contract in free agency, no blockbuster trade or marquee signing was made in an attempt to fill his vacated spot atop the rotation. And yet, despite so much uncertainty regarding both the team's immediate budget and long-term financial future, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has left no stone unturned in his attempt to get this franchise over the hump. Forced to prioritize one major free agent, Preller let Cease, Ryan O'Hearn, Robert Suarez, and Luis Arraez walk, instead pivoting to a creative three-year deal with incumbent No. 2 starter Michael King. With practically no depth or major-league ready prospects to speak of, Preller has been unceasing in low-risk signings, bringing in German Marquez, Kyle Hart, Griffin Canning, Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales, and Sean Boyle as back-end rotation options for Stammen to pick from. He's also found a way to stretch every dollar the team has at its disposal, adding some much-needed utility to the bench group in Sung-mun Song. In need of more power, especially against left-handed pitchers, he signed Nick Castellanos and Miguel Andujar deep into the winter months. He jumped at the opportunity to try and revitalize the careers of Ty France and Jose Miranda on minor-league deals, and he even got his already-loaded bullpen some reinforcements in Daison Acosta and Ty Adcock. Though it hardly fits the profile of a "masterclass", Preller has shown, with no room left for doubt, that he's as creative as any executive in the game, even when he doesn't have the financial freedom to hand out $300 million contracts or the prospect depth to swing a trade for Craig Kimbrel. Of course, a lot of the very walls closing in on the Padres were built by him over many years of freely wheeling and dealing, but with his back in the corner, the Friars' general manager has used this offseason to keep the team firmly in range of their first World Series title ever. For that great work — plus an impressive track record that now spans more than a decade — the Padres have decided to extend Preller on a multi-year contract, per FanSided's Robert Murray. Originally hired as GM in 2014, Preller is now the second-longest tenured front office chief in baseball, behind only much-maligned Yankees leader Brian Cashman. Though San Diego hasn't been back to the Fall Classic since 1998, Preller has led the franchise to an unprecedented run of success, including four trips to October over the past six years. In 2024 and 2025, the team has also won 90+ games in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. With a sale of the organization is expected to happen sooner or later, having Preller in tow to guide the team through such a tumultuous transition period is indescribably valuable. He may not want to stick around too long after the Seidlers leave town, but knowing he'll be the one calling the shots is the type of reassurance that can keep the Padres from plunging head-first into irrelevancy under a particularly frugal new owner. Of course, the sale isn't the only uncertain thing facing the Padres right now. An MLB lockout is widely expected next offseason, and recent reports suggest it could wipe out most, if not all, of the 2027 season. Whether or not games get played, those contentious Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations will alter the finances of the sport in some irrevocable way, be it a salary cap/floor or harsher luxury tax penalties. That could lead to a painful trimming down of the roster, but it's almost certainly better if Preller is the one shedding weight rather than a new baseball operations lead with a background in finance and cap compliancy. Once described as the "rock star general manager" of baseball, Preller has shown a little more maturity and restraint this offseason, if only because there's no more room in the budget for a big show. We know he still has that wild side to him after last year's trade deadline. And now, the Padres know they'll be in good hands no matter what comes next for them or the league as a whole. View the full article

Marlins principal owner Bruce Sherman and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix speak to the media about the franchise's spending, player development infrastructure and goals for 2026.View the full article

Marlins principal owner Bruce Sherman and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix speak to the media about the franchise's spending, player development infrastructure and goals for 2026.View the full article

Spring training has a funny way of rewarding the prepared. I’m not suggesting you pack your Type A personality on your trip to Fort Myers, but you also don’t want to miss the big stuff. Like eating. Or finding shade. Or seeing your favorite ballplayers up close. That’s why Twins Daily created our Ultimate Minnesota Twins Spring Training Guide, and that’s why we just updated it. Consider it your 2026-ready field manual—tightened, refreshed, and upgraded with the stuff you only learn by being there, because we want you to love Twins spring training as much as we do. The biggest change is that we leaned into specifics for the 2026 season. No more needing to Google when the Hammond Stadium Open House or “Minnesota Day” is: you’ve got the specifics. Also, since 2026 includes the World Baseball Classic, we’ve provided additional tips on the best time to visit. We still have other activities you can do in Fort Myers, besides attending Twins games, and we now have additional tips on baseball-related activities when the Twins are out of town, including which road games are the easiest trips. But maybe even better, we’ve added tips about the best ways to watch your favorite players when they aren’t on the road trips. Of course, that also means updating our favorite restaurants and haunts away from the ballpark, especially in downtown Fort Myers, which is experiencing a bit of a revival. Since many of our readers are craft beer lovers, we are also keeping tabs on our favorite breweries, including the release of a new Twins D-Ale-y Pale Ale and “Beers with Beat Writers” event at Palm City Brewing on February 27th. Best of all, the updates won’t stop today. Like our favorite baseball team, we’re committed to improving over the next few weeks. So check back often and leave your comments so we can get into Major League shape. See you in Fort Myers. Check out the Ultimate Spring Training Guide! View the full article

Marlins manager Clayton McCullough speaks to the media about his philosophy of living in the moment and how he could improve from his rookie season in Miami. View the full article

Marlins manager Clayton McCullough speaks to the media about his philosophy of living in the moment and how he could improve from his rookie season in Miami. View the full article

The headliner of the prospect package that the Marlins received in the Ryan Weathers trade, outfielder Dillon Lewis speaks with Fish On First about participating in big league camp and developing all aspects of his game. View the full article

The headliner of the prospect package that the Marlins received in the Ryan Weathers trade, outfielder Dillon Lewis speaks with Fish On First about participating in big league camp and developing all aspects of his game. View the full article

The Brewers found a solid left fielder in 2025—so solid, another team wanted him, and was willing to take a low-leverage reliever as well in exchange for Ángel Zerpa. Isaac Collins was, like the recently-traded Andruw Monasterio, one of those unheralded pickups who paid off big-time for Milwaukee. Who will fill Collins’s shoes in left field? 2025 Review The Brewers started with Jackson Chourio in left, but injuries to center fielders Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell soon pushed Chourio to center. Collins took over, led the team’s regular starters in OBP, posted a 118 OPS+, and provided 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference. In addition to Collins and Chourio, Jake Bauers and Christian Yelich saw some time in left field for the Brewers in 2025. Chourio, Bauers, and Yelich remain on the roster, as do Tyler Black and Brandon Lockridge, who put in brief appearances in left for Milwaukee. Current Roster Situation Chourio is arguably the lead contender to replace Collins. He performed superbly in left in 2024, notching 3.8 rWAR as a rookie, despite a horrendous slump to start the season. This will be very likely if Mitchell and Perkins stay healthy. If that is the case, then Chourio should be just fine in left field, where his defense is more than adequate. Other options on the roster (or among the NRIs) who have experience in left field or who could cover the position include Jett Williams, Akil Baddoo, Bauers, Yelich, Lockridge, Black, Steward Berroa, recent free-agent pickup Luis Rengifo, Greg Jones, and Luke Adams. Baddoo, Bauers, Yelich, Lockridge, and Black may be the top choices among those called up. Baddoo is a lefty bat with some pop. Bauers has been a corner outfielder and backup first baseman in 2024 and 2025 for the Brewers. Yelich is a former MVP who still plays a competent left field. Black is a former top-100 prospect in search of a defensive home to go with some OBP skills and above-average speed. Lockridge has flashed speed and defense in the majors, and showed good OBP skills in the minors. The trades the team made to respond to injuries last year have given them ample options heading into this season. Best-Case Scenario Chourio locks down left field and plays 140-145 games there. This is less a reflection on Chourio, who is the Brewers’ franchise cornerstone for the next six to eight years, and more a reflection on the other two outfield positions. There are, of course, multiple other scenarios where the Brewers fare well in left field. But for the 2026 season, a good sign for the Brewers will be Chourio being the left fielder day in and day out, because it means a lot of other positions have worked out well. Worst-Case Scenario Multiple players end up with 15 or more starts in left field. This, again, may not reflect on Chourio so much as the team as a whole. If Chourio isn’t in left field 90% of the time, they’ve had injury problems, either with Chourio or with other players, forcing Chourio to play elsewhere. While the team’s depth in left field means they will have someone competent, other positions may have more of a downgrade as a result. Overview Left field is not going to easily turn into a disaster for Milwaukee. The team has several players who could fill the position competently. The “worst-case” scenarios Milwaukee faces in 2026 will likely be the effects of having to address shortfalls or a rash of injuries at other positions. View the full article

Acquired from the Boston Red Sox in mid-January for catching prospect Nate Baez, Tristan Gray joined his third organization in two months, becoming a member of the Minnesota Twins. The 29-year-old enters the fold, competing with Ryan Kreidler and Orlando Arcia to become the club’s backup shortstop behind Brooks Lee. How does Gray compare to Kreidler and Arcia? Is he the favorite to win the competition? Let’s take a look. Tristan Gray’s Batting Metrics The left-handed infielder’s hitting metrics have been extremely volatile over his three-season major league career. Over only 122 plate appearances, Gray has hit a combined .207/.264/.369 with four home runs and a 76 wRC+. His overall numbers are largely the product of volatility, evidenced by him generating a 285 wRC+ over 5 plate appearances with Tampa in 2023 and a 6 wRC+ over 31 plate appearances between Miami and Oakland in 2024. However, in his longest stretch in the majors with Tampa last season, Gray hit .231/.282/.410 with three home runs and an 89 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances. Despite struggling to get on base, the 29-year-old was serviceable in his first extended run in the majors, with his underlying metrics supporting that suggestion. Interestingly, Gray sported reverse splits last season, generating a 207 wRC+ over 23 plate appearances against southpaws compared to a 45 wRC+ over 63 plate appearances against righties. His reverse splits remain consistent with his small 2024 sample. Again, it would be negligent to make concrete claims when assessing 122 plate appearances. However, if we are to believe he is serviceable against left-handed pitching while likely performing better against right-handed hitting with more opportunities, Gray could be the most platoon-proof option of the trio, potentially giving him an upper hand over Kreidler and Arcia. As noted earlier, Gray is by no means a Moneyball darling, struggling to reach base. He also sported an alarming 31.9% whiff rate last season. Yet, when he made contact last season, he hit the ball hard, sporting elite bat speed, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Gray’s underlying metrics closely mirror Kody Clemens’s, who underwent an unexpected power surge with Minnesota last season. It would be unfair to expect Gray to hit 19 home runs next season. Yet, he could provide similar output to Clemens in 2026 if his 2025 metrics carry over. Tristan Gray’s Defensive Skillset Gray spent meaningful time at shortstop last season, collecting 62 innings at the position. He also mixed in at the other three infield positions, playing 80 innings at second base, 33 innings at third base, and 19 innings at first base. The former Ray graded out as average or slightly below average at third, second, and first. Yet, he generated 1 Outs Above Average (OAA) at shortstop, meaning he was slightly above-average at the position. Admittedly, Gray is likely a better defensive shortstop than Lee. Kreidler and Arcia likely are, too. Lee is going to be the primary starter at the position, regardless. Still, Gray could play the position at an average-to-above-average rate, meaning he could fill in at the position on Lee’s days off or if he sustained a long-term injury or significant performance concerns. Gray could also serve as Luke Keaschall’s backup at second base, Royce Lewis’s backup at third, and sprinkle in at first base alongside Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Clemens, providing unrestrained utility to the Twins' infield. What Should Tristan Gray’s Role Be in 2026? Given his encouraging performance at the plate last season and defensive flexibility, Gray could have the inside track on winning the backup shortstop role over Kreidler and Arcia, who are both profoundly subpar hitters. Having one minor league option remaining, Minnesota could option Gray to Triple-A St. Paul and reward Kreidler or Arcia the bench spot. That said, given that Minnesota targeted Gray and handed him a 40-man roster spot (Kreidler also has a 40-man roster spot; Arica doesn’t), signs point toward the organization entering Spring Training with Gray being the favorite to win the role. View the full article

There is a truth to the San Diego Padres that has been relevant since 2019: Manny Machado is the team’s most important player. Yes, this is a team that also employs the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. But Machado drives the bus, a responsibility wrought by his blend of offense, defense, and intangible qualities in the clubhouse. In general, that blend is not yet stale. Machado has remained an above average hitter by wRC+ in each year with the Padres, and his two most recent seasons have shown a significant bounce back from what was a down season in 2023. The defensive chops have waned in certain respects, but Machado remains largely in line with his career outputs in average, on-base percentage, and a number of the underlying rates and trends on the offensive side. With all that being said, the projections anticipate a dip in productivity from the bat of one Manny Machado in 2026. There are roughly five prominent projection systems that we’re considering here, all of which feature a slightly different way of evaluating players. Some favor veteran players and take playing time more heavily into consideration. Others are deep on Statcast data or other nuanced factors. In any case, here are how those five project Machado to perform in 2026: Model BA OBP SLG K% BB% wOBA wRC+ ATC .262 .323 .450 19.4 8.1 .332 113 OOPSY .264 .324 .456 19.7 8.1 .335 119 Steamer .268 .329 .465 19.5 8.1 .340 122 THE BAT X .260 .321 .455 19.3 8.2 .332 117 ZiPS .258 .321 .430 19.8 8.4 .324 111 First, the obvious: each of these projections offers a fairly similar outcome as to what to expect from Machado in 2026. That’s not terribly surprising given that he’s a veteran player with an extensive sample from which to choose. Nevertheless, it’s notable that Steamer – which tends to like veteran players – is higher on Machado, while ZiPs – which is heavily weighted by aging curves – is lower. Regardless, we’re within shouting distance of his norms regardless of metric. None of this seems entirely unreasonable given what Machado has continued to turn in over the past couple of seasons. There is one area, however, where Machado is coming up short: power. None of those slugging projections is especially favorable. If we isolated it to, well, ISO, where only extra-base hits are taken into consideration, we get the following (in order): .187, .192, .197, .195, .172. Again, Steamer likes him the most, and ZiPS isn’t a fan. This is the area, though, where we’ve seen Machado’s regular contributions start to fade. He’s had some absolutely torrid stretches in recent years; last July he followed up a .212 ISO month with a .283 clip. But it hasn’t been there on a remotely consistent-enough basis for a team that isn’t quite on a level with their peers in the power department. Age is the most likely factor for this decline. When one considers that alone, is there any reason to think that we may see Machado best the projections and start to regain some semblance of his old self in creating a more standard form of offensive impact? Interestingly, Machado’s percentile outcomes from 2025 are indicative of a player who was already doing just that: Machado still swings hard. Compound that with an upper-percentile barrel rate, and it’s no wonder he’s able to maintain such an elite Hard-Hit% at this point. One thing worth noting, too, is that Machado isn’t the type of player who needs to sit on one specific pitch type in order to drive the power side. He’s been versatile in each of his seasons with San Diego. What seems most notable there is actually his expected slugging. The xSLG for Manny Machado in 2025 was .495. It was .467 in 2024 and .465 in 2023. His true slugging read .460 in 2025 (.185 ISO). It was his lowest output in either measure of power since 2024. In the two most recent seasons before that (the noted 2023 and 2024 campaigns), his actual slugging percentage checked in at .462 and .472. So, in 2023, his expected and actual slugging percentage lingered around one another while in 2024, he actually outperformed the expected metric. To add to this perplexing trend, Machado hit the ball hard at a 51.5 percent rate in 2025, which exceeded each of the two previous seasons. His PullAIR% was also two percent higher in 2025 than it was in 2024. Yet, within all of that, Machado got worse outcomes in matters of slug last year when he should’ve actually showcased one of the best power outputs of his entire career based on what the data had to say. So, the question isn’t so much whether or not Machado can regain his power stroke, it’s whether the power will actually manifest in the way it’s supposed to based on Statcast’s own expectation. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to see that actually coming to fruition. Machado, obviously, plays his home games at Petco Park. That’s 81 games at a venue that ranked 27th in its Park Factor for overall offense, last in doubles, and 20th in home runs. Those overall numbers are almost exactly what you’d get if you isolated it to only right-handed hitters, too. Machado’s slugging percentage was 13 points lower at home than it was on the road last year. His ISO was 24 points lower, too. It’s not a problem inherent in Machado or his age, but rather one that exists in the park itself. This presents us with an interesting paradox. It’s actually good that Machado is being pinned down so heavily by his home environment in that it means that any decline at this point isn’t so much due to age. Of course, the other side of that is that it’s also extremely bad that his offense is being pinned down by his home environment because the Padres need every source of run production they can find. Perhaps things find a way to even out in 2026, but the Padres should, at least, hope that Machado can bring the stick on the road with him. At least they know that it won’t be for lack of trying in either setting. View the full article

Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers speaks to the media on the morning of the club's first full-squad workout, analyzing his 2025 breakout, reacting to rumors of a potential contract extension and more.View the full article

Marlins outfielder Kyle Stowers speaks to the media on the morning of the club's first full-squad workout, analyzing his 2025 breakout, reacting to rumors of a potential contract extension and more.View the full article

Much of the conversation this offseason centered on the Twins adding impact offense or bolstering the bullpen. On paper, they have checked those boxes, albeit without much flash. Josh Bell adds a switch-hitting bat with power. Victor Caratini provides depth and flexibility behind the plate. Taylor Rogers brings a familiar and reliable late-inning arm back into the fold. None of those moves qualify as headline-grabbers, but they do improve the roster. One area the Twins have not yet addressed is starting pitching, and on the surface that is a perfectly reasonable stance. Starting pitching is arguably the strongest area of the roster heading into 2026. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez anchor the rotation as proven, high-end starters. Bailey Ober, despite a frustrating and injury-marred 2025 season, still offers mid-rotation stability when healthy. Behind them is a wave of young, intriguing arms with upside, including Zebby Matthews, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel. Because of that depth, it was somewhat surprising to read ESPN’s Jesse Rogers nugget that the Twins were “in” on Framber Valdez before the Tigers signed the former Astros ace. That came on the heels of Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting earlier this offseason that the Twins expressed “late interest” in Freddy Peralta before the Mets ultimately traded for him. Both pitchers represent a clear tier above the remaining free agent starters, however those reports suggest the Twins may not be as content with their current rotation as it appears. Adding another starting pitcher makes sense on multiple levels. While the Twins have a lot of depth and upside, there is also a significant amount of risk baked into the group. Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are as close to certainties as the Twins have. After that, confidence becomes much shakier. Bailey Ober entered last season as a reliable option, but injuries, inconsistency, and a tendency to give up the long ball introduced real doubt heading into 2026. Beyond Ober, the rotation is filled with young arms who are interesting but unproven. Simeon Woods Richardson profiles as a steady option, though his upside is limited. David Festa and Zebby Matthews have flashed promise across two seasons but have also struggled with command and efficiency. Taj Bradley and Mick Abel offer top-half-of-the-rotation upside, but both have shown the kind of volatility that makes it hard to count on them as being ready. High ERAs, uneven workloads, and growing pains have been part of the story for nearly all of the Twins' starting pitching depth. Another reason to continue exploring the starting pitching market is identity. A common critique of this iteration of the Twins is that they lack a clear identity. Leaning fully into starting pitching could change that. Even without a true ace available, adding a dependable veteran would allow the Twins to push young arms to Triple A, protect workloads, and build depth that inevitably gets tested over a long season. It is a way to build on a strength rather than constantly chasing weaknesses. If the Twins do decide to add a starter during spring training, there are still a few intriguing names on the market. Lucas Giolito Giolito is a familiar name to Twins fans after years as a division rival and frequent foe during his time as the ace of the Chicago White Sox. Now heading into his 10th Major League season, the former All Star remains a solid and dependable starting pitcher. Last season with the Red Sox, Giolito logged 145 innings with a 3.41 ERA, and he was even better down the stretch, posting a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 appearances. His season ended early due to flexor irritation, but there were no signs of a broader decline when he was on the mound. As a veteran presence, Giolito would fit a recent Twins trend of adding experienced arms to stabilize the roster, joining names like his former Chicago teammate Liam Hendriks. He may no longer profile as a front-line ace, but his durability, experience, and familiarity with the division make him a logical option for the Twins. Zack Littell A familiar name for Twins fans, Littell pitched out of the bullpen for Minnesota for parts of three seasons before bouncing around and reinventing himself as a starter in Tampa Bay. Since the start of the 2024 season, Littell owns a 3.73 ERA with an excellent 4.30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Now 30 years old, a reunion where his career began would be an interesting full-circle moment. There are reasons to be skeptical based on his underlying numbers, but Littell has delivered consistently solid outings since being permanently moved into a rotation. Griffin Canning Now 29 years old, Canning, was once a highly regarded prospect after being selected in the second round. Injuries have defined much of his career, but he showed promise early last season, posting a 3.77 ERA over 76 1/3 innings before tearing his Achilles. He is still rehabbing but should be ready around Opening Day. That injury likely creates an opportunity to sign him at a reasonable price on a short-term, make-good deal. There is upside here, and if things click, Canning could also become a trade chip at the deadline, should the Twins season find themselves in the position to sell yet again this season. Spring training being underway does not mean the Twins are done shaping their roster. Recent reporting indicates the front office has at least explored adding another impact arm. While starting pitching is already a strength, it is also an area filled with volatility beneath the top two names. Adding a veteran starter would not only mitigate risk but could also help define what this Twins team wants to be in 2026. Depth, durability, and pitching could become the backbone of the roster, giving Minnesota a clearer identity and a higher floor heading into the season. What do you think? Should the Twins stand pat and trust their young arms, or does it make sense to add another starter even this late in the offseason? Join the conversation and let us know your thoughts in the comments. View the full article

In part one of a three-part series on Royals catching defense, I looked at blocking metrics and how Kansas City catchers have struggled in this category. In part two, I am going to look at catcher framing, which has been a controversial area for the Royals' catchers over the past five years. Historically, Kansas City has had a bad reputation for catcher framing, especially with Salvador Perez, who's been a frequent target of critics (especially regarding his Hall of Fame candidacy). That said, since Matt Quatraro took over as manager and Paul Hoover became bench coach (primarily working with catchers), the framing metrics have shown some improvement. And yet, it seems like we don't hear about the Royals' progress in this area of catching defense Let's take a look at the Royals' catcher framing data, how they ranked as a team last year and fared individually, and what they have done under Quatraro and Hoover the past three years, compared to the previous three years (2020 to 2022) under manager Mike Matheny. Royals Catchers Were Mediocre Individually Last Year (But Not Horrible) When it comes to framing, Statcast's framing runs are pretty much the gold standard. Framing runs are tied to strike rate and the number of extra "strikes" a catcher is able to acquire due to their framing ability. Below is a definition of catcher framing runs via Baseball Savant. According to Savant, there were 57 catchers in baseball who qualified with enough pitches seen. Here's a ranking of those pitchers by catcher framing runs, with Freddy Fermin and Perez being highlighted, as they were the only Royals catchers who qualified in 2025. Fermin ranked 30th in baseball with -1 catcher framing run mark and a 43.6% Shadow Strike% (shadow strike rate measures how well a catcher garnered strikes in the "shadow" zones, which are the edges of the strike zone). Perez lagged behind Fermin at 49th. The Royals captain had a -7 catcher framing runs mark and 39.7% Shadow Strike%, That said, while both were mediocre (Fermin less so than Perez), they weren't horrible by any means. Eight catchers were worse than Perez, including some big-name ones like Philadelphia's J.T. Realmuto (-8 catcher framing runs), Washington's Keibert Ruiz (-9 catcher framing runs), the Dodgers' Will Smith (-10 catcher framing runs), and the White Sox's Edgar Quero (-13 catcher framing runs). When it comes to how the Royals' catchers fared individually, including Luke Maile and Carter Jensen, who didn't qualify, things looked a little more optimistic. Maile actually proved to be a solid framing catcher, and Jensen's framing proved to be much better than his blocking in his short MLB debut. The veteran Maile led all Royals catchers in framing runs (2) and Shadow Strike% with 46.3%. Jensen had zero framing runs, but his 40.4% Shadow Strike% was better than Perez's, though his sample was incredibly minuscule (551 pitches, which is nearly half of Maile's total). Overall, the Royals ranked 20th in baseball last year with a framing runs mark of -3. That mark was better than the Reds (-7), Twins (-9), Dodgers (-11), Rays (-12), and White Sox (-16). Where the Royals Stood In Terms of Catcher Framing Before Hoover The Royals have long had a rough reputation for being a bad-framing team. That was certainly the case during the Mike Matheny era, which didn't seem to prioritize catcher framing as much as the manager who succeeded him. Here's a look at how the Royals fared as a team compared to the rest of the league in terms of total catcher framing runs from 2020 to 2022 (which is Matheny's managerial tenure). As Royals fans can see in the table above, the Royals were 38 catcher framing runs below average. That was the second-worst mark over that three-year span, better than only the Orioles, who had a -43 framing runs mark. Their 45.2% Shadow Strike% was also the second-worst mark in baseball from 2020 to 2022. Over that time, according to Savant, Perez accumulated -25 catcher framing runs and a 44.8% Shadow Strike%. MJ Melendez was slightly better in terms of framing runs, as he had a -16 mark. However, his 41.8% Shadow Strike% was three percent worse than Perez's. Thus, it makes sense why the Royals eventually moved Melendez off catcher (though his outfield defense wasn't great either). While Perez was still a solid slugging catcher and known for his work with pitchers, his framing from 2020 to 2022 highlighted his and the Royals' struggles in this important area of catching defense. Hoover's Work With Catchers Paying Dividends When the Royals hired Quatraro, they also brought Hoover from Tampa to serve as the Royals' bench coach. One of the big reasons Kansas City hired him was that he was not just an analytical type but also a great communicator who could help catchers improve in an area of catching defense that had lagged for years. Here's what was said about Hoover in an article by Anne Rogers in 2023, early in Spring Training that season. Obviously, framing does not exist in a vacuum. To frame pitches effectively, the Royals not only needed catchers with better form and setup (which Hoover worked on immediately), but also pitchers who could hit those shadow zones. That wasn't the case in the Matheny era, as the Royals' pitching staff was subpar. Even in 2023, the Royals' framing didn't exactly stand out, mostly because the pitching staff remained poor. However, when Kansas City added effective pitchers to the staff (Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo), things changed not only in terms of pitching ERA, but catcher framing runs as well. Below is a breakdown of team rankings by total catcher framing runs from 2023 to 2025. Notice where the Royals catchers fare in this latest set of rankings. The Royals ranked 14th with zero framing runs and a Shadow Strike% of 44.9%. Interestingly enough, their Shadow Strike% is lower than the previous three-year sample, but that's mostly due to Shadow Strike% being down across the league over the past three years compared to 2020 to 2022. Still, Kansas City catchers under Hoover saw a 38-run improvement over the past three years. The only more dramatic one is the Orioles, who had a +2 framing runs mark after a -43 total from 2020 to 2022. The main difference, however, between Kansas City and Baltimore is that the Orioles had Adley Rutschman behind the plate starting in 2022. The former No. 1 overall pick is a two-time All-Star and came in with a reputation as one of the best framing catchers in baseball when he debuted. The Royals have continued to have Perez as their primary catcher. Under Hoover, Perez has produced a -8 catcher framing runs mark from 2023 to 2025, which is 17 runs better than what he produced from 2020 to 2022. He also did this with almost 400 more pitches seen. Now, is Salvy an elite framing catcher? Not at all. However, he has worked hard to become an average to slightly below average one after being such a poor framer for years. With ABS coming to the Major Leagues this year, Perez, with his better framing, should only improve his stock as a Hall of Fame candidate in 2026. That should be especially true this year with Jensen likely giving the Royals captain a much-needed spell behind the plate on regular occasions, much like Fermin did the past two seasons. Framing is not necessarily a "strength" of this Royals catching group (or at least not yet, anyways). That said, under Hoover, they have not let framing be a dragging "negative", a narrative that haunted Perez and the Royals for years. If Jensen can turn into a good framing catcher under Hoover, or perhaps also Blake Mitchell, who's waiting in the wings in the Minors? Then the Royals will continue to develop into an organization that's a far cry from what most baseball fans were used to during the Dayton Moore era (a good thing in the short and long term). View the full article

Although the Boston Red Sox weren’t active in the Rule 5 Draft, they swung a trade immediately following the selection process for a right-handed pitcher with interesting pedigree. They landed Ryan Watson, who was selected from the Giants system by the Athletics. Since he was part of the Rule 5 Draft, he retains the Rule 5 roster restrictions; in other words, he has to stick on the big-league roster for the entire season unless he is injured. Just about three weeks ago, it looked like he could be in jeopardy of losing his spot with the Red Sox before his career even began, as the team was facing a 40-man crunch and still needed to add to the bullpen. While the need to add is still there, president of baseball operations Craig Breslow finally traded away Jordan Hicks to the White Sox and likely opened a path for Watson to at least break camp as an important member of the bullpen. Watson isn’t a direct replacement for Hicks, but he fills a similar role in the bullpen incredibly. Hicks was a flamethrower, but he had very little idea where the ball was going once it left his hand. Watson can’t touch triple digits, but his fastball tops out at 96mph and he controls it well. It’s a pitch that encourages swing and misses, and it pairs well with his secondary offerings: a slider with sweeping tendencies and a curveball that lacks reliable control as currently constructed. The latter needs work, but the slider is his true out pitch. That offering induced a ridiculous 40.5% chase rate last season, made only remarkable by the fact that batters whiffed at on 39.5% of their attempts to hit it. It grades out as his best pitch by Stuff+ (102) and Watson may benefit from throwing it more to left-handed hitters in the future. What likely drew the Red Sox to him though, is that he has elite extension and a fastball that has the potential to be dominant. He ended 2025 with a 28.1% strikeout percentage to go along with an 7% walk rate. The rest of his numbers leave a bit to be desired, though. He posted a 4.26 ERA and a 3.73 FIP over 50.2 innings pitched. Running that kind of ERA in Triple-A isn’t ideal, but getting him into Andrew Bailey’s pitching lab will likely do wonders for his approach on the mound. With his FIP running a half-point lower than his ERA last season, there's no denying that he controls a game well from the mound. He will be squarely in the bullpen mix for the Red Sox; they have no need for another depth starter at the moment. Though there are actually quite a few candidates for this distinction, Ryan Watson is probably the most under-the-radar roster addition of the offseason. What is working in his favor is that this team seems to be one of the best at developing pitchers taken in the Rule 5 Draft. Both Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten have carved out important roles for themselves in the bullpen and figure to be stalwarts of the pitching staff for years to come. Watson is hoping that the gamble the Red Sox took on him pays off; if so, he could become a crucial pice on one of the best teams in Major League Baseball. View the full article

As of Monday, Miami Marlins spring training is fully underway in Jupiter. I treat this report date as the unofficial end of the Major League Baseball offseason. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix is famously "always having conversations"—each of his first two seasons on the job, the Marlins have made trades on the literal eve of Opening Day. While we should once again expect to see outside acquisitions over the course of the spring, it's reasonable to assume that the vast majority of candidates to take the field for the Fish on March 27 are already in the organization. With 39 days to go, here is how I project the Marlins to construct their active roster for the 2026 season opener. Position Players Left-handed batters: Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Graham Pauley, Griffin Conine, Liam Hicks Right-handed batters: Otto Lopez, Agustín Ramírez, Heriberto Hernández, Connor Norby, Javier Sanoja, Christopher Morel, Esteury Ruiz Switch-hitters: Xavier Edwards With a handful of these Marlins players capable of toggling between infield and outfield positions and few true everyday starters, I felt that categorizing them by handedness would be most appropriate. I have ordered the names based on my rough estimate of how many total plate appearances they'd receive. Norby's projected role could fluctuate the most over these next five weeks. Maybe he beats out Pauley and reasserts himself as Miami's primary third baseman...or maybe he doesn't crack the active roster at all. Such is the quandary that the Marlins face due to his blend of offensive upside, defensive awkwardness and poor track record against lefty pitchers. All 13 of these position players have minor league options left except for Lopez and Morel. Just missed: Owen Caissie This would understandably be a frustrating outcome for Caissie after nearly two full seasons at the Triple-A level. Sending him down doesn't benefit the club in any meaningful way either unless they intend to keep him down for multiple months, which is what'd take to push back his free agent eligibility by a year. The opportunity to make his Marlins debut on Opening Day largely hinges on factors outside of his control, such as injuries and Conine's transition to first base. Pitchers Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Eury Pérez, RHP Max Meyer, LHP Braxton Garrett, RHP Chris Paddack Bullpen: RHP Pete Fairbanks, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Cade Gibson, LHP John King, RHP Janson Junk, RHP Michael Petersen Junk clearly belongs in the majors—his 3.14 FIP was the best of any Marlins pitcher last season! However, these arms are supposed to complement one another. With Meyer, Garrett and Paddack each having negligible professional experience as relievers, I'm expecting them to begin 2026 in familiar roles, with Junk being temporarily relegated to long man duties. There is solid talent in this bullpen, but not much standout velocity. That's where Petersen comes in. It would not have been surprising if the Marlins squeezed him off their 40-man roster at some point of the offseason to make room for new acquisitions. The fact that they prioritized him over many other players in that regard and he's entering his age-32 season suggests they'll let him sink or swim in The Show. Just missed: Lake Bachar, Robby Snelling The Marlins frequently trusted Bachar with inherited baserunners in 2025, but he wasn't proficient at getting out of those jams (allowing 12 of 28 to score). Combining that with his overall slippage in performance during the final quarter of the season, he has moved down the depth chart a bit. If any of the current projected starters get hurt this spring, I suspect Junk will slide into their spot. If an additional rotation injury occurs, that ought to open the door for Snelling. View the full article

Leo Jiménez has been a prospect in the Blue Jays system for a while now. Acquired as a teenager out of Panama in international amateur free agency, Jiménez has been in the organization for over six years. Despite missing time due to injury and the COVID year, Jiménez steadily climbed his way up the org, with strong on-base skills while playing a solid shortstop. That culminated in a “breakout” 2024, when Bo Bichette missed time due to injuries. Jiménez appeared in 63 games and took 210 PA; he was a league-average hitter (101 wRC+) and played solid defense at second base and shortstop. 2025 was a setback, however, for Jiménez, as although he was granted an additional option year due to his previous injury history, he struggled once again to stay healthy, only playing a combined 44 games across the major and minor leagues. In a short cup of coffee with the Jays, Jiménez slashed .069/.129/.172 for a -19 wRC+. It wasn’t all negatives, however, as when Jiménez was healthy and playing in Triple-A Buffalo, he showcased why the Jays have kept him around over all these years, with strong bat-to-ball skills with an 88.6% zone contact rate, as well as strong average exit velocities and hard hit numbers. He is mostly a line drive and groundball hitter, and instead of pulling the ball in the air, he sprays it to all fields instead, limiting his power production. Jiménez also showed solid plate discipline, leading to a high walk rate of 15.5%, but was passive, only swinging 39.3% of the time. He has a reputation as a ball magnet as well, as he’s had multiple seasons of 20+ hit by pitches, which adds to his on-base percentage. Jiménez's Triple-A season seems more representative of his abilities as a hitter, and despite his poor results in MLB in 2025, he still showed a knack for squaring up the ball. The biggest question for Jiménez is if he can break camp with Toronto, as he’s out of options now. The Jays' starting infield is already set, with Andrés Giménez at shortstop, Ernie Clement manning second base, and a platoon of Kazuma Okamoto and Addison Barger at third, leaving little room for Jiménez. However, with Clement thrust into a starting role, due to Bichette's departure and Giménez becoming the full-time shortstop, there is room for a backup middle infielder, and Jiménez is primed to take over. Toronto's recent trade for Jesús Sánchez, however, means another roster spot is locked in, as Sánchez is also out of options and will need to be on the MLB roster. Right now, FanGraphs' RosterResource has these position players projected to be on the MLB roster: C: Alejandro Kirk, Tyler Heineman INF: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, Addison Barger OF: Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Myles Straw, Jesús Sánchez Unfortunately for Jiménez, that is 13 hitters. Although the Jays could choose to roster only 12 pitchers and add an extra hitter, with the strenuous MLB season, teams usually roster the maximum number of pitchers. The outfield situation for the Jays is a little crowded, however. Even if Springer primarily plays DH while Anthony Santander is out for five to six months, there are five primary outfielders for three spots, in addition to Barger, who will move back and forth between third base and right field. The Jays could afford to option an outfielder so that they could bolster their infield depth. Lukes and Schneider both have at least one option remaining, as does Barger. Optioning one of them or trading one away could allow Clement to shift over to shortstop against tough lefties, while the righty-batting Jiménez steps in for the lefty-batting Giménez in the lineup. If Leo Jiménez cannot make the Opening Day roster, the Jays will be forced to make a similar decision to the one they made a few years ago with Otto Lopez, another right-handed hitting infielder who was granted an extra option year. Lopez has turned out to be a solid second division regular with the Marlins after being traded to the Giants and then DFA’d by San Francisco before Miami picked him up. Lopez has now had two straight seasons with over 2.0 fWAR for the Marlins, and Jiménez has the capability to be a similar player. There’s a spot on the Blue Jays roster for a right-handed hitting utility player; Jiménez just needs to take it. View the full article

In case you somehow missed it, the Brewers sent all of their third base depth to the Red Sox in exchange for a pair of southpaw pitchers and infielder David Hamilton. It raised some eyebrows, but aside from the now-crowded rotation, Milwaukee's bigger roster issue was that they needed a third baseman. Luis Rengifo was the answer to the prayers of Brewers fans, although they must not have dared dream terribly big. He was just one of several names on a long list of underwhelming third base options on this year’s free-agent market, and the lack of demand is unsurprising. In 2025, he posted a 73 wRC+ and 0.0 fWAR over 541 plate appearances. So what is Milwaukee expecting to get out of him? When looking at his broader body of work, it’s clear that he does have some redeeming qualities. He was a respectable contributor to the Angels lineup from 2022 to 2024, accumulating 4.9 fWAR and posting a 111 wRC+ over those three seasons. The key to that success was a low strikeout rate of 16.3% and a whiff rate that was consistently better than average. His 2024 was promising, especially given his outstanding results against four-seam fastballs (.412 BA, .529 SLG). Even in 2025, a year that saw him reach a new nadir for offensive production in a full season, his contact skills remained above average. Although he doesn’t strike out much, he does have a propensity to chase pitches and rarely takes free passes, having a walk rate of just 6.8% over the course of his career. The piece that he clearly lacks in his offensive game is quality of contact. His average exit velocity is consistently in the bottom quartile of qualified hitters, and given his small frame, that's no surprise. Still, we’ve seen players like Isaac Paredes and Brendan Donovan overcome low exit velocities by pulling the ball in the air consistently or squaring up balls at an elite rate. Sadly, Rengifo does neither. Outside of 2022, Rengifo pulls the ball in the air roughly 13% of the time, well below the MLB average of 16.7%. He squares the ball up at an average rate, but is held back by his low bat speed and suboptimal launch angles. Funnily enough, his hitting profile resembles that of Caleb Durbin. Both players are better at making contact than hitting the ball with authority, although based on last year’s numbers alone, Durbin is more extreme in both aspects and pulls the ball in the air far more often. Although his offensive profile has similarities to Durbin, they couldn’t be more different defensively. Durbin was an above-average defender at third last season, posting 5 Defensive Runs Saved; Rengifo managed just -5 DRS. Originally brought up as a second baseman, he fared much better when playing closer to first base. He doesn’t have the strongest or most accurate arm, leading to plenty of poorly thrown balls to first base. He also lacked range at third base, especially when moving laterally toward first base. This limited his defensive production, particularly against right-handed batters. Given all of his flaws, it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that the Brewers clearly downgraded. There simply isn’t a lot on paper to write home about. Furthermore, they’re paying him $3.5 million guaranteed with another $1.5 million in incentives. Even $5 million isn’t much by the standards of this time and this industry, but it’s definitely more than what they would’ve had to give Durbin, so what’s going on? First, it’s important to recognize that Rengifo is mostly a stopgap. The Brewers’ top four prospects (Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Jett Williams, and Cooper Pratt) are all infielders. Williams and Pratt are expected to be called up this season, while Made and Peña will be knocking on the door within a year or two. It would’ve been foolish to commit any more cash or prospect capital to acquiring a more capable third baseman, since Rengifo may not even occupy the top spot on the depth chart for very long. Second, the Brewers could be more excited about what they can do with Rengifo than what he’s already demonstrated at the big-league level. If the Crew can improve Rengifo's swing decisions the same way they improved Andrew Vaughn's last summer, it would make a world of difference, in his profile as much as anyone else's. His career year, 2023, was also the year he walked 9.2% of the time. Third, and most importantly, the Brewers probably don't see as great a difference between Durbin and Rengifo as most of their fans perceive—if any, at all. While what happened last feels most urgent and relevant, that's not always true. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system projects Rengifo to bat .255/.313/.394 in 419 plate appearances this year. It projects Durbin to hit .253/.330/.375. If you bump Rengifo up to his 60th-percentile projection (.258/.316/.401) and pull Durbin down to his 40th-percentile one (.250/.327/.369), Rengifo becomes a more valuable player. That implies about a 1-in-4 chance that Rengifo is the better player this year, and another 20% chance that they're virtually a coin toss. Durbin has long-term team control remaining, which makes him more valuable than Rengifo, but because the team has all that organizational infield depth, the ability to retain Durbin for the long haul wasn't worth all that much. Thus, it made sense for them to cash in Durbin and pick up Rengifo instead, given all the controllable, high-upside pitching depth they got in the exchange. They didn't choose Rengifo over Durbin; they chose Rengifo, Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan over Durbin. Even if it doesn’t work out, Milwaukee has enough infield flexibility to make things work. Pat Murphy has gone on record to say that he doesn’t want to move Joey Ortiz off of shortstop and back to the hot corner, but it could happen if Rengifo, Jett Williams, and Hamilton are unable to do the job. In recent years, the Brewers have made countless trades that were questionable at first, only to end up turning water to wine. They’re one of the most cunning front offices, and any moves they make must have compelling reasons under the hood. Rengifo is not the third baseman of the future, and he may not even be the third baseman of the present, but he gives the team something to work with in spring training. Either way, don’t count him out yet. Milwaukee may still have yet another ace up their sleeve. View the full article

On Finding Success “When you’re healthy, a lot of things start to come your way.” - Byron Buxton, reflecting on the steps he has taken over the last two years that have resulted in him playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. “24 was rough… I forgot that I had the power to say no…” - Mick Abel, who took big steps forward in 2025 after struggling with his control in 2024. He was candid about last year's improvement being mostly mental, and how simplifying freed him up mechanically and mentally. “I wanted to quit so many times [hitting] right-handed, even in pro ball…” - Brooks Lee about how surprising it’s been that his right-handed swing found more success than his left-handed swing last year. On The New Coaching Staff View the full article