DiamondCentric

After spending nearly a month with the Brewers as a member of their taxi squad from late September through their postseason run to the NLCS, Jeferson Quero has returned to game action in winter ball. In the hitter-friendly Venezuelan Winter League, he has slashed .269/.356/.558 with four home runs. "He's a great kid, and he's a good player, and we're seeing it in winter ball right now," Brewers president of baseball operations and general manager Matt Arnold said earlier this week at MLB's annual GM Meetings in Las Vegas. "He's doing great. I feel like I get a new highlight emailed or texted to me every [day]. 'Hey, he hit another homer.' It's cool." With veterans Eric Haase and Danny Jansen no longer in the organization, Quero is the only full-time catcher on the 40-man roster, other than William Contreras. (Anthony Seigler is there, too, but has been predominantly an infielder for the last three seasons.) The Brewers could add a veteran to the mix this offseason to bolster their depth, but barring such an acquisition, Quero is in line to make his major-league debut next year as Contreras's backup. "We're always looking for depth, and competition is a good thing," Arnold said of Milwaukee's catching mix. "But I think Jeferson is a really special kid." A couple of years ago, it seemed Quero's moment would come much sooner. He breezed through three levels in his first two years of full-season ball, despite being nearly four years younger than his average peer at High A and Double A. His strong bat-to-ball skills played just fine against older pitching, and the hope was that he could translate more of his raw power into games down the line. Defensively, his elite throwing arm and mature handling of pitching staffs turned heads. Entering his age-21 season, Quero looked like the complete package and appeared on the cusp of reaching the majors. The Brewers selected his contract in November 2023 to protect him from that winter's Rule 5 draft, and he began the following season in Triple-A Nashville. Unfortunately, a pair of injury-marred seasons slowed what had been a quick ascent. Quero's first regular-season plate appearance of 2024 would be his last, as he suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder on a dive back into first base and underwent season-ending surgery. A hamstring injury delayed his return to play until June 2025, after which the Brewers frequently utilized him as a DH to ease him back into the rigors of catching. When he did catch, Quero was not his usual self behind the plate. Most notably, his dominance over opposing running games (quantified by Baseball Prospectus as Swipe Runs) cratered. Season Framing Runs Blocking Runs Swipe Runs CS% CDA 2022 5.4 1.5 4.3 31% 12.3 2023 7.0 -0.5 4.5 35% 10.7 2025 -0.3 -0.2 -1.1 19% -1.6 In Quero's defense, that framing number should be taken with a grain of salt in a small sample of 34 games, and many of the successful steal attempts against him occurred on poorly-located pitches that put him in a suboptimal throwing position. Even so, it was clear that his formerly 70-grade arm was much closer to good than elite after major surgery. After he posted a subpar 29.7% hard-hit rate with an unremarkable 90th-percentile exit velocity of 102.8 mph, Quero's power surge in winter ball could be a sign that he's finally closing in on full strength after two trying years. His outlook in 2026 hinges heavily on his throwing and receiving trending toward their previous levels, along with improving his plate discipline to maximize his contact skills. While his walk rate was in line with the Triple-A average, his 36.8% chase rate ranked in the 11th percentile of hitters. Quero could still benefit from more minor-league seasoning, but the Brewers could instead work on those swing decisions at the big-league level, especially if he's only playing in a part-time capacity. They may also be more patient with the flaws in his game, because they hold his intangibles in such high regard. Quero's demeanor in spring training impressed Pat Murphy, who dubbed him "maybe my favorite prospect that's ever been with the Brewers." He's also an excellent game caller, and he showed an impressive knack for reading swings and sequencing pitches while catching live at-bats during the team's five-day bye before the NLDS. Those positive first impressions (coupled with a sparse free-agent catching market) could make the backup role Quero's to lose come spring training. "Whether that's on Opening Day or a couple years from now, I'm very excited about his future," Arnold said. DiamondCentric's John Bonnes contributed reporting to this story. View the full article

Major League Baseball introduced a brand-new award last night and bestowed the inaugural prize on Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy is MLB's very first Entertainer of the Year. It's a well-deserved honour for one of the most delightful personalities in the sport, both on the field and off. Guerrero was not present at the awards show on Thursday, so his godfather, Hall of Famer Pedro Martínez, accepted on his behalf. In other Blue Jays awards news, Guerrero was also named to the All-MLB First Team, winning over Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz. In even more of a surprise, Bo Bichette earned Second Team honours, beating out shortstops like Geraldo Perdomo, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, and Jeremy Peña. Featured image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images. View the full article

During his November 6 media availability, a reporter asked Ross Atkins about Jeff Hoffman’s role as Toronto’s closer. “The great thing about Jeff is he’s not married to that,” Atkins said. “I think he would be open to anything that makes us better.” In the same media event, Atkins indicated that Toronto was open to improving the team through any means. So, if Toronto is open to adding a bona fide closer in the free-agent market, who are some closers worth considering? Hoffman had a disappointing 2025. On the positive side, among all pitchers, his Whiff% and K% were both in the 83rd percentile. However, his xERA, BB% and Barrel% percentile rankings were 57th, 26th and 1st, respectively. Furthermore, surrendering home runs was an issue, not only in Game 7 of the World Series but also during the regular season. Hoffman’s 2025 regular-season HR/9 was 1.99, tied for the second-highest among 144 relievers with at least 50 innings pitched. Therefore, although I am confident that Hoffman will be better next year, one can understand why Toronto would consider adding a closer to its 2026 bullpen. I identified four free-agent closers as options for the Blue Jays: Edwin Díaz, Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, and Devin Williams. These relievers were the first four closers listed on MLB Trade Rumors' (“MLBTR”) list of the top 50 free agents. Before I delve into the 2025 results of these closers, let’s review how they performed in the three seasons before. Consider Table 1. The listed relievers had impressive resumes before the 2025 campaign. All of them posted 89th percentile or higher wOBA marks, and Díaz, Iglesias and Williams generated xwOBA scores in the 95th percentile or higher. Also, one can see why Toronto was interested in Hoffman, given his percentile rankings in K%, K-BB%, wOBA, xwOBA, and Whiff%. Hoffman, although not elite during the 2022-2024 seasons, was particularly good. Now to the most recent season! Table 2 shows some 2025 pitching metrics for the noted pitchers. Except for BB%, Díaz was elite in 2025. His xERA/xwOBA was 99th percentile, as were his K-BB% and Whiff%. Furthermore, Díaz's Barrel/PA% was at the 96th percentile. In other words, his opponents swung and missed at an elevated rate. However, when they connected, those batters barreled the ball at an exceptionally low rate. Iglesias, although not elite like Díaz, was very good in 2025. Other than his barrel rate, Iglesias was much better than the median reliever last season. His xERA/xwOBA, K-BB%, and Whiff% were in the 78th percentile or better. However, he did record a high Barrel%. Suarez has had an interesting journey to MLB. The Venezuelan-born player pitched in Nippon Professional Baseball from 2018 to 2021. He made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2022 in his age-31 season and posted a 3.27 xERA and a 3.22 FIP. Fast forward to 2025, wherein Suarez posted some impressive and some concerning numbers. His wOBA was 96th percentile. However, his xERA/xwOBA was 57th. Also, batters barreled up his pitches at a high rate (Barrel% in the 29th percentile), and they did not swing and miss at a high rate, given his 33rd percentile Whiff%. Williams had a noteworthy 2025 for the Yankees. From a headline perspective, he posted a 4.79 ERA and lost his job as closer. However, under the hood, he performed well last season. Williams generated an xERA/xwOBA in the 80th percentile, and his Whiff%, K% and K-BB% were 94th percentile or better. However, his BB% was high (32nd percentile), and his Barrel/BBE% was 25th percentile. Table 3 has more 2025 numbers to consider. The highlights are as follows: Except for Hoffman, the listed closers posted particularly good to excellent FIP numbers. Of the 144 relievers with at least 50 innings, Díaz's 3.73 WPA was fourth highest, and Suarez’s 3.16 WPA tied for sixth best. For Iglesias, Williams, and Hoffman, their WPA scores ranked 53rd, 105th and 117th, respectively. Regarding Save%, even elite closers (Díaz and Suarez) blow saves. Hoffman, who had some notable blown save opportunities, posted an average Save%. Furthermore, in terms of xwOBA splits by batter handedness, all four closers had better numbers against right-handed hitters than left-handed batters. Still, none had xwOBA stats that exceeded the MLB average when facing left-handed batters. In summary, these free-agent closers are worthy candidates for a role as Toronto’s closer for the 2026 season. Let’s talk contracts! Concerning contract estimates, I will put my calculator aside and rely on MLBTR and FanGraphs. Behold Table 4! The first matter to note is that Díaz is the only closer to receive a qualifying offer from his previous team. Second, Toronto is a competitive balance taxpayer. Accordingly, if the Blue Jays signed Díaz to a contract, they would “lose their second- and fifth-highest selections, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period” (per MLB.com). Another issue to note is that, except for Williams, the MLBTR and FanGraphs contract estimates are similar. Apparently, MLBTR believes the market will look past Williams' high 2025 ERA, demotion from the closer role, and the non-receipt of a qualifying offer. On the other hand, FanGraphs appears to think the market for Williams’ services will be more muted than MLBTR does. A word or two on risk. First, relievers can exhibit significant performance volatility from one season to another due to small sample sizes, injuries, and other factors. For example, in 2022, the relievers in the top three in saves were Emmanuel Clase, Kenley Jansen and Liam Hendriks. After 2022, Clase and Jansen posted xERA figures that were at least 0.87 runs higher than their 2022 marks. Unfortunately, Hendriks pitched only 18 innings after 2022. Also, although it is not a reliever risk per se, Clase is currently under indictment in a gambling scandal that may end his MLB career. Accordingly, projecting a reliever’s future performance level is not an easy task. The second point concerning risk is age. These four free-agent closers are in their 30s. Hence, the impact of aging is an issue. Accordingly, I present Table 5. For information regarding Stuff+ and Pitching+, please take a look at the FanGraphs website. Based on the Pitching+ numbers, unlike Díaz and Iglesias, Williams and Suarez have not displayed a worrying deterioration in their respective pitching process. Lastly, courtesy of Spotrac, a history of recent injuries for the closers: Díaz underwent knee surgery and did not play during the 2023 season. Also, he had a shoulder impingement in 2024 and was on the IL (May 29 to June 13). Atlanta placed Iglesias on the IL in 2023 (March 30 to May 5) with a shoulder strain. In 2022, Suarez had a stint on the IL (June 7 to August 6) with a knee ailment. During the following season, the Padres placed him on the IL (March 30 to July 20) with elbow inflammation. Williams landed on the IL in 2024 (March 28 to July 28) due to stress fractures in his back. The Last Word If I had to sign one of these closers, I would opt for Williams. He is the youngest of the group, his Pitching+ history does not suggest a near-term performance decline, and his 2025 showing was not as poor as his 4.79 ERA suggests. If MLBTR has overstated his market value, there may be a worthwhile opportunity to sign him to a shorter, less expensive deal. Díaz has been elite. However, a four-year, $82 million contract is too rich (and risky) given signs of performance decline (Stuff+ and Pitching+). Also, the loss of draft picks and international pool money is a sizeable additional cost. Iglesias would be a nice add as a set-up reliever, but he does not appear to be a noticeable upgrade over Hoffman. Suarez is tempting, but a three-year deal will take him to his age-37 season, which is very risky. Also, his elevated 2025 xERA gives me pause. If Toronto considers adding a closer for the 2026 season, Díaz, Iglesias, Suarez, and Williams are worthy free agent candidates. There are, of course, other options available to Toronto, including other free agents and the trade market. Let the articles flow! View the full article

“Each year, it’s been a development of pitches, and it’s been what’s allowing me to have the success I’ve been having this past season,” Dalton Rogers told me as he spoke about his time with the Boston Red Sox. The left-hander finished the 2025 season in Double-A Portland, going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 18 games with the Sea Dogs. More than anything, he showcased his development with a whopping 101 strikeouts in just 84 1/3 innings. Before making his Double-A debut, the pitcher had spent some time in Greenville, originally getting called up from Salem in 2023. “The pitching coach there, Bob Kipper, was like, 'You’re showing some really good changeups,'” Rogers reminisced about his time in Greenville. Rogers, who was drafted in the third round of the 2022 draft, has experienced quite the road to professional baseball as he lost his first season of college ball due to injury. He also changed his style of pitching once he got into professional baseball; Rogers was mainly a fastball pitcher in college, but has since undergone a drastic change in his pitch usage upon joining the Red Sox organization. “In college I was 80% fastball,” Rogers explained. “Obviously, being in pro ball, you can’t throw fastballs every time.” His changeup is viewed by members of the organization as possessing great potential, partly due to his similar arm release height and extension between his fastball and the off-speed offering. He spent his first full season focusing on developing his changeup, and upon entering his second full season in the pros, the focus shifted to a new pitch to compliment the two in his arsenal. “We worked on a slider. To help compliment a changeup that goes arm side and a fastball that carries, a slider that goes glove side [is key],” Rogers said, discussing his three main pitches. A key takeaway as mentioned by Rogers is that he now had three quadrants of the zone covered thanks his primary offerings. While working on them, he also began to improve a curveball that he had previously used. The pitch becoming more of a focus in 2025 as he continued to improve his three main ones. Rogers' development has not been with an eye on relief. Having pitched out of the bullpen his final season in college, Rogers saw a return to the rotation in his first season with the Red Sox. Across his first two full seasons, he appeared in 44 games making 42 starts. The 2025 campaign saw that plan change slightly, especially while with Greenville. To open the season Rogers appeared in five games at High-A, starting just one. “The Red Sox incorporated a piggyback. It allowed guys to have set days. Instead of a five-man rotation, you could have an eight-man with two starters throwing together,” Rogers explained. “How we do it is, we have pitch counts. To start the year, we were at about 60 pitches, and so Payton Tolle would start and I would come in behind him, We would have communications. He’s at about 50 pitches, I would get ready. I would treat it like I was starting. His last inning was my pre-game bullpen.” With the offseason in full swing now, Rogers is preparing for 2026 after taking some time off from having his wisdom teeth removed. The left-handed pitcher will look to continue his great pitching from 2025 into next year, where it is likely that he'll make it to Triple-A Worcester at some point. Taking everything that he’s worked on since being drafted, Rogers continues to put the pieces together as one of the most intriguing pitching prospects in the farm system. View the full article

On Thursday in fall/winter ball, Fenwick Trimble went 0-for-3 with a walk. Jack Sellinger pitched two scoreless innings. Holt Jones allowed a walk-off single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Mesa Solar Sox lost, 4-3, and were eliminated from the Arizona Fall League playoffs. I'll have a detailed summary this weekend of how all Miami Marlins players fared in the AFL. Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 0-for-3 with a walk. Only 132 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 I detailed why Joe Mack is a lock and Josh White is a near-lock to be selected to Miami's 40-roster on Tuesday. 🔷 Thursday was the first day of the inaugural MLB Open, a golf tournament featuring pairs of current/former players representing each franchise. Jakob Marsee and Gary Sheffield are competing on the Marlins' behalf. The tournament concludes today. 🔷 For the second straight year, members of the latest Marlins MLB Draft class have traveled to the Dominican Republic to take part in a first-year player camp where they will train alongside the organization's Latin American players. 🔷 Just Baseball's updated Top 100 prospects list includes Thomas White (18th), Joe Mack (26th), Robby Snelling (30th) and Aiva Arquette (55th). White is now universally ranked among MLB's top 25 prospects, becoming the first Marlin since Eury Pérez to be so highly regarded. 🔷 Continuing their series of World Baseball Classic-inspired national team rosters, Son Los Marlins constructed the best possible Dominican and Puerto Rican teams comprised of former Fish. Finding adequate pitching with PR roots proved difficult. 🔷 Congratulations to former Marlins radio broadcaster Glenn Geffner, who will be teaching at the University of Florida during the Spring 2026 semester (h/t Isaac Edelman). After several years as an adjunct professor at Florida Atlantic University, Geffner is bringing his experience to UF for a course on sports play-by-play. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Aaron Judge (AL) and Shohei Ohtani (NL) won their respective league's MVP awards. Tarik Skubal (AL) and Paul Skenes (NL) won their respective league's Cy Young awards. Nick Kurtz (AL) and Drake Baldwin (NL) won their respective league's Rookie of the Year awards. Stephen Vogt (AL) and Pat Murphy (NL) won their respective league's Manager of the Year awards. Cal Raleigh, Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong were all announced as members of Team USA for the 2026 WBC. San Diego Padres ownership announced that they are exploring a potential sale of the franchise. View the full article

On Thursday night, the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale announced that the Minnesota Twins will be hiring their third lead hitting coach in the past three seasons. Keith Beauregard, who has been with the Detroit Tigers hitting coach staff the past four seasons, will head to the Twins. Beauregard has been with the Tigers since 2022, but it was announced that he decided not to return to Motown for the 2026 season. He worked with the likes of All-Star Riley Greene and Matt Carpenter. He oversaw the turn around seasons of Javy Baez and Spencer Torkelson. He worked with James Rowson on the Tigers 2023 staff. Matt Borgschulte returned to the Twins organization to become their lead hitting coach in 2024. He will not be returning to the Twins for 2025. "Borgs" replaced David Popkins who was the team's lead hitting coach in 2022 and 2023. Shortly after the Twins let him go last offseason, he was hired by the Blue Jays and led the best offense in the league to the World Series. Nightengale also noted that Trevor Amicone and Rayden Sierra will return as the team's assistant coaches in 2026. Catching up on the Twins coaching situation: Manager: Derek Shelton (replaces Rocco Baldelli) Bench Coach: Open (replacing Jayce Tinger) Asst Bench Coach: Open: (replacing Hank Conger) Pitching Coach: Pete Maki (returns) Asst Pitching Coach: Luis Ramirez (returns) Bullpen Coach: LaTroy Hawkins (replaces Colby Suggs, who is with the Rangers now) Hitting Coach: Keith Beauregard (replaces Matt Borgschulte) Asst Hitting Coach: Trevor Amicone (returns) Asst Hitting Coach: Rayden Sierra (returns) 1B Coach/Outfield/Baserunner: Grady Sizemore (replacing Tommy Watkins, now with the Braves) 3B Coach/Infield Coach: Ramon Borrego (shift from 1B coach to 3B coach) Quality Control Coach: Open (replacing Nate Dahmann) View the full article

On Thursday afternoon, Will Sammon, a senior MLB writer at The Athletic, reported that Kris Bubic is generating trade interest from multiple teams, according to sources. He broke the report on social media. Bubic made his MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, despite not pitching above High-A ball. After posting a 4.32 ERA in 50 IP in 2020 and a 4.43 ERA in 130 IP in 2021, he struggled in 2022. In manager Mike Matheny's final season in Kansas City, he went 3-13 and posted a 5.58 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 129 IP, all career-worsts. The former Stanford product only pitched three games in 2023 due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. However, he returned to the mound in 2024 as a reliever and absolutely thrived as a late-inning reliever for a Royals team that went 86-76 and made it to the ALDS. In 30.1 IP, he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a K rate of 32.2%. The Royals moved Bubic back to the rotation in 2025, and he looked phenomenal at first. In 18 games before the All-Star Break, he posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and struck out 113 batters and only walked 34 in 108.2 IP. That performance helped him earn his first All-Star appearance. However, Bubic didn't look the same after the All-Star Break, as he posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in two starts and 7.2 IP. He actually had more walks (five) than strikeouts (three). The Royals had him checked out, and it was revealed that he had a left rotator cuff strain. As a result, Kansas City shut him down for the remainder of the season. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Bubic has been cleared to resume throwing, a good sign that he will be ready for Spring Training. Thus, it makes sense why many teams would be interested in Bubic, as he seemed to be an AL Cy Young candidate last year before being shut down for the remainder of the season due to injury. The Royals have Bubic under team control for one more year, but his projected arbitration salary will be high at $6 million, and he will be a free agent after next season. In an interview with John Bonnes of Diamondcentric yesterday at the MLB GM meetings, JJ Picollo mentioned Bubic as an extension candidate. Still, he didn't share any details on that progress (or if it was on the horizon). Kansas City may be able to trade Bubic to a team that is more willing to sign him to an extension after acquiring him, despite his injury history. Jon Morosi of MLB Network recently reported that the Royals are interested in acquiring an outfielder via trade this offseason. Thus, trading Bubic could help them achieve that goal. Jarren Duran has been floated as a trade target for the Royals, but it's hard to tell what kind of return he would require. If the Royals pursue that path, it likely will include Bubic as a starting point, at a minimum. Photo Credit: © Denny Medley-Imagn Images View the full article

Ryan Jeffers has one last season of arbitration left with the Twins, making him a likely trade candidate this offseason. While he'll be in trade talks, the Twins have a greater need to keep him around for any decent chance to win next season. View the full article

Call it counterintuitive, but even though it will cost more to sign Brandon Woodruff if he turns down the qualifying offer from the Brewers by Tuesday, it would feel more worthwhile to do so. The big question around Woodruff isn't his talent level; it's about health and durability. When he's on the mound, Woodruff is likely to be a solidly mid-rotation starter, with upside from there. Unfortunately, given the way his last three seasons have gone, it's hard to count on him being on the mound very often. If he has the confidence to turn down $22.025 million on a one-year deal, it's a signal that his shoulder is essentially intact, for now. However, if he does turn down that contract, Milwaukee is more likely to move on than to re-engage with him. As much as the whole franchise loves Woodruff, they have lots of upside in their projected 2026 rotation as it is. What they need is volume—the very reliability that is the missing ingredient for the veteran righthander. Besides, if they let Woodruff depart after he turns down this offer, they reap a draft pick to deepen their 2026 class, which would make it easier for them to retain Freddy Peralta. If they re-sign him, the price tag is likely to increase the pressure to trade Peralta, and they'll need to find another way to improve their depth on the farm. Letting Woodruff depart would leave an open spot in the rotation, but it would also mean considerable flexibility with which to fill it. The Brewers are never going to wade into the market for the top-end starting pitchers in free agency, but this year, there's a fairly robust second and third tier of them. In particular, two right-handed starters who will be available without the loss of draft compensation stand out as viable options. Merrill Kelly After being traded from the Diamondbacks to the Rangers in July, Kelly hits the market as he heads toward his age-37 season. Despite getting old, though, he's been one of the league's sturdier workhorses for the last half-decade—nearly always taking the ball, often working relatively deep in games, and consistently pitching better than an average starter. Though he only has one plus weapon, in his changeup, Kelly has a kitchen-sink repertoire and uses all three fastball varieties. He's a rich man's Colin Rea, and while Rea departed for the Cubs last winter, he's still very much the style of pitcher the Brewers like for the middle of their rotation. Projections for Kelly's next contract are considerably higher than what the Cubs paid Rea, or what they will pay him in 2026. He's expected to make north of $30 million on a two-year deal. Because his age will keep the term of the contract short, however, he could be in the Crew's price range. Nick Martinez Whereas Kelly is coming off a strong season, Martinez hits the market after taking the qualifying offer from the Reds last fall—and probably wishing he hadn't. Though his stuff remained essentially intact, Martinez's strikeout rate against righties declined sharply, and with that went some of his effectiveness. The Reds leaned on him to start more than he had the previous few years, and it seemed to stretch him too thin. Martinez won't make what Kelly will this winter. He's in line for something closer to $22 million over two years, making him reasonably priced. The key question for him will be whether he can get back to the clever sequencing and great command that made him so good from 2022 through 2024. As with Kelly, the only truly plus pitch Martinez throws is his changeup, but his arsenal is deep and balanced. The last time Martinez spent time on the injured list in the majors was 2017. He's been a swingman, rather than a full-fledged starter, but like Kelly, he provides ample value by being available when needed. If Woodruff takes the qualifying offer, the Brewers' winter pitching plans will have to be low-cost and low-wattage. If he doesn't, though, they'll have significant money to spend—and several ways to go about doing it. View the full article

There has been one instance of Derek Falvey trading a veteran for prospect(s) over the offseason. Just one. Can you think of it? It was Gio Urshela, after 2022. Urshela was traded to the Angels for 19-year-old pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo, just hours before the non-tender deadline. This move suggests a high likelihood that Urshela would have been released, rather than the Twins paying him an estimated $8 million via arbitration. The trade was more about finding value than about getting worse in the present for future rewards. Falvey’s avoidance of selling present value for future value communicates an intention not to spend any year in a state of non-competitiveness. Sure, the team has gone through periods of non-competitiveness, but it’s never seemed to be part of an intentional plan. There hasn’t been a single offseason that has seemed like throwing in the towel on the following year. There have been trades of established players. But—except Urshela—they have all brought back big-league talent. There have been minor moves, like 2024’s trade of Nick Gordon for Steven Okert or 2021’s much-ballyhooed LaMonte Wade Jr.-for-Shaun Anderson swap, but most of the Twins’ most significant offseason moves have been these challenge trades, trading MLB talent for MLB talent. The Twins wanted to sell Josh Donaldson ahead of 2022, but instead of prospects, they received Urshela and Gary Sánchez, and they included Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt to facilitate the trade. Jorge Polanco was traded for prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, but the Twins also received Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani in the deal, filling holes on the big-league roster—you know, in theory. In both the Donaldson and Polanco trades, the primary motivation was to move salary, but the Twins used the trades to solve existing problems with their plans to contend immediately. Urshela took Donaldson’s spot, and Sánchez filled a backup catcher role after Mitch Garver was traded for Kiner-Falefa and prospect Ronny Henríquez, for example. The money was quickly reinvested. Carlos Correa signed shortly after the Donaldson trade, and within a week, the money saved in the Polanco trade was allocated to Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. Even if Urshela was seen as a worse third baseman than Donaldson, the moves served a purpose: to build the team in the short-term and (often) in the long term. As a perfect example of this, the trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami netted Pablo López, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio. The Twins dealt from a perceived surplus of lefty corner bats for a badly-needed frontline starter, and they stocked the farm a bit in the process. Ahead of 2022, it was clear that they were ready to move on from Taylor Rogers, but instead of prospects, they brought in two experienced pitchers with more team control, in Emilio Pagán and Chris Paddack. Perceptions of the quality of these trades run the gamut, but it’s clear that the intent has never been to outright cut back on talent in the hopes that the trade would bear fruit three years later. Beyond trades, the Twins have tried to shop each offseason in free agency, sometimes getting creative (like ahead of 2024), sometimes biding their time and hoping talent falls through the cracks (like ahead of 2018, 2021, or 2025). The late signings of Addison Reed, Logan Morrison, and Lance Lynn before 2018 didn’t work, but they still trudged on, adding Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and (late in the offseason), Marwin Gonzalez ahead of 2019. Even after a disastrous 2021, in an offseason in which they dumped the biggest free-agent contract the organization had ever signed, they still added Correa, because they weren’t throwing in the towel on 2022. I’m not sure that it’s the right tactic. At some point, a team has to cut its losses and stop taking half-measures. The reluctance to sell a player without getting commensurate MLB talent may have kept players around longer than they should have been with the Twins (Max Kepler, maybe?). But the Central has been open for the entirety of Falvey’s tenure—at least to win enough games to catch a Wild Card berth. If nothing else, it’s a noble pursuit. And if, as fans worry, the next step of the process begun on July 31, 2025 is to further hack away at this roster, Falvey will be in uncharted territory. We’ve never seen this team jpack it in ahead of the season. There’s no history to base it on or use as speculation. Falvey has been insistent that he still does not intend to rebuild, and that he does not intend to continue to sell. He's told the media that he wants to add to his group, not subtract, which is in line with his behavior in previous offseasons. Whether you believe him is up to you. View the full article

In episode 101 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie discuss rumors that Byron Buxton would be willing to waive his no trade clause if the Twins continue their tear down. They go on to discuss Derek Shelton’s emerging MLB staff, talking through the focus on adding MLB experience. The guys then walk through the futures of the established big league starting pitchers still on the Twins roster. Do the Twins trade away any combination of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober prior to 2026? 0:00 Intro/Housekeeping 1:30 Byron Buxton not a Twin for life? 8:55 Derek Shelton's Staff 21:36 Off-season roster decisions 49:25 News and Notes You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View the full article

The Blue Jays coaching staff has already seen some changes this offseason. Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that Blue Jays assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense is leaving the team and will be joining the San Francisco Giants as their hitting coach. Mense had been with the Blue Jays since the 2022 season. Working with hitting coach David Popkins and fellow assistant coach Lou Iannotti, Mense coached the Blue Jays to a .330 wOBA in 2025, the third highest in baseball. In San Francisco, Mense will reunite with the Giants' new manager Tony Vitello, whom Mense previously played for at the University of Missouri. For the Blue Jays, this marks the second departure from the big league staff, as bench coach Don Mattingly stepped away from the team earlier this month. Featured image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images. View the full article

When a pitcher like Dylan Cease hits free agency, the real headache for his old team is figuring out how to fill that gap. The San Diego Padres’ main problem this winter isn’t Cease leaving; it’s that his unique skills, like missing bats and handling a solid workload, come with a hefty price tag. They don’t have anyone with a similar skill set coming up in their system, and the market has already set high prices for that type of talent. This limits how they can build their rotation for 2026 and the years after. The Dylan Cease Equation: Durability + Swing-and-Miss = Market Scarcity Cease's free-agent profile is a product of years of trends: teams now prefer to pay for inputs (like strikeout rates, pitch quality, and command) instead of outputs (like ERA and win totals). Following this reasoning, the right-hander's 2025 campaign does not cut his worth down, even though the lesser results do make him more of a risk to sign. No MLB starter has made more starts (174) since 2020 than Cease. He has had 200 strikeouts in five consecutive seasons, where he also was the league leader with the highest strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) this year. Even when his performance was inconsistent, his whiff rate on the slider and four-seam fastball were both well above average and both around the top quartile of MLB starters. He's got a lot of avenues to strike hitters out, and in today’s pitching economy, that’s a very safe investment. It is not his ERA that teams will buy. They'll pursue him because he gets rid of contact at a higher rate than nearly anyone in baseball and because he makes 32 starts every year without fail. You cannot find that internally unless you have drafted and developed a similar archetype, and the Padres haven’t done that. The Padres’ Structural Disadvantage The team has greatly reduced its payroll compared to the 2023-2024 levels, falling below the competitive balance tax. However, the rotation turnover created by Yu Darvish's surgery, Cease and Michael King's free agency, and the doubt about the organization's depth has left them with fewer arms to left cover innings in 2026. A team can’t replace 180 his innings with 180 innings from mid-tier arms and expect the same run prevention or strikeout leverage. Strikeout-heavy innings protect a defense, mitigate sequencing luck, and suppress contact quality. If the Padres opt for the route of signing several less expensive pitchers (think of second-tier pitchers who are good at getting weak contact) to take over Cease's innings, the club's run-prevention model will be entirely different. It might be the case that the total cost will be the same in a dollar sense, but the variance control will be lower and the performance delivered will also be lesser. It is easy to plan around 200 strikeouts per year; it's much harder to build around 170 innings of contact management. Why They’ll Pay Full Retail MLBTradeRumors projects Cease's next contract come in at seven years, worth $189 million; The Athletic’s Tim Britton slots him at six years for $174M. Adjusting for inflation and market scarcity, the difference is semantic—either number prices him as a top-10 pitcher by annual average value. That’s simply the going rate for a starter with elite “stuff” metrics (velocity, spin. whiff rate, etc.) and consistent availability. Front offices now align those data traits closely with future value and injury mitigation. If a team really wants to utilize a certain player’s talents, they will have to pay his market value, which could mean either signing him again or getting someone who is almost the same. The Padres can’t do anything to the established system unless they produce pitchers with similar characteristics through their own pipeline. However, at this moment in time, they do not have a pipeline like that. Lacking a developmental counterpart, they are confronted with nothing but a scarcity tax. It is through external acquisition that they get those skills, and every other team that bids will encounter the same lack. Even a “lower-tier” acquisition such as Aaron Civale or Jordan Montgomery is no longer inexpensive, as the demand for swing-and-miss profiles has increased along with the preference for stable workloads. Without elite infield defense or extreme run suppression on balls in play, the Padres can’t afford to lose strikeouts at scale. As such, the Padres’ decision tree looks straightforward but unforgiving. Either they: - Re-sign Cease and accept the payroll implications; - Buy a similar skillset elsewhere, likely at equivalent or higher cost; or - Degrade the rotation model, accepting lower strikeout density and higher performance volatility. None of these routes yield surplus value. The third might save dollars but risks undercutting the club’s run-prevention architecture. In effect, the team's best path forward is likely to foot the bill on a massive contract for Cease. It'll make future conversations uncomfortable, but for the sake of this competitive window, the Padres really don't have any other choice. View the full article

When a pitcher like Dylan Cease hits free agency, the real headache for his old team is figuring out how to fill that gap. The San Diego Padres’ main problem this winter isn’t Cease leaving; it’s that his unique skills, like missing bats and handling a solid workload, come with a hefty price tag. They don’t have anyone with a similar skill set coming up in their system, and the market has already set high prices for that type of talent. This limits how they can build their rotation for 2026 and the years after. The Dylan Cease Equation: Durability + Swing-and-Miss = Market Scarcity Cease's free-agent profile is a product of years of trends: teams now prefer to pay for inputs (like strikeout rates, pitch quality, and command) instead of outputs (like ERA and win totals). Following this reasoning, the right-hander's 2025 campaign does not cut his worth down, even though the lesser results do make him more of a risk to sign. No MLB starter has made more starts (174) since 2020 than Cease. He has had 200 strikeouts in five consecutive seasons, where he also was the league leader with the highest strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) this year. Even when his performance was inconsistent, his whiff rate on the slider and four-seam fastball were both well above average and both around the top quartile of MLB starters. He's got a lot of avenues to strike hitters out, and in today’s pitching economy, that’s a very safe investment. It is not his ERA that teams will buy. They'll pursue him because he gets rid of contact at a higher rate than nearly anyone in baseball and because he makes 32 starts every year without fail. You cannot find that internally unless you have drafted and developed a similar archetype, and the Padres haven’t done that. The Padres’ Structural Disadvantage The team has greatly reduced its payroll compared to the 2023-2024 levels, falling below the competitive balance tax. However, the rotation turnover created by Yu Darvish's surgery, Cease and Michael King's free agency, and the doubt about the organization's depth has left them with fewer arms to left cover innings in 2026. A team can’t replace 180 his innings with 180 innings from mid-tier arms and expect the same run prevention or strikeout leverage. Strikeout-heavy innings protect a defense, mitigate sequencing luck, and suppress contact quality. If the Padres opt for the route of signing several less expensive pitchers (think of second-tier pitchers who are good at getting weak contact) to take over Cease's innings, the club's run-prevention model will be entirely different. It might be the case that the total cost will be the same in a dollar sense, but the variance control will be lower and the performance delivered will also be lesser. It is easy to plan around 200 strikeouts per year; it's much harder to build around 170 innings of contact management. Why They’ll Pay Full Retail MLBTradeRumors projects Cease's next contract come in at seven years, worth $189 million; The Athletic’s Tim Britton slots him at six years for $174M. Adjusting for inflation and market scarcity, the difference is semantic—either number prices him as a top-10 pitcher by annual average value. That’s simply the going rate for a starter with elite “stuff” metrics (velocity, spin. whiff rate, etc.) and consistent availability. Front offices now align those data traits closely with future value and injury mitigation. If a team really wants to utilize a certain player’s talents, they will have to pay his market value, which could mean either signing him again or getting someone who is almost the same. The Padres can’t do anything to the established system unless they produce pitchers with similar characteristics through their own pipeline. However, at this moment in time, they do not have a pipeline like that. Lacking a developmental counterpart, they are confronted with nothing but a scarcity tax. It is through external acquisition that they get those skills, and every other team that bids will encounter the same lack. Even a “lower-tier” acquisition such as Aaron Civale or Jordan Montgomery is no longer inexpensive, as the demand for swing-and-miss profiles has increased along with the preference for stable workloads. Without elite infield defense or extreme run suppression on balls in play, the Padres can’t afford to lose strikeouts at scale. As such, the Padres’ decision tree looks straightforward but unforgiving. Either they: - Re-sign Cease and accept the payroll implications; - Buy a similar skillset elsewhere, likely at equivalent or higher cost; or - Degrade the rotation model, accepting lower strikeout density and higher performance volatility. None of these routes yield surplus value. The third might save dollars but risks undercutting the club’s run-prevention architecture. In effect, the team's best path forward is likely to foot the bill on a massive contract for Cease. It'll make future conversations uncomfortable, but for the sake of this competitive window, the Padres really don't have any other choice. View the full article

The San Diego Padres lacked power production this past season. They ranked 18th in the league in RBIs (663) and 28th in home runs (152). Only six players hit more than 10 home runs: Manny Machado (27), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Gavin Sheets (19), Jackson Merrill (16), Jake Cronenworth (11), and Xander Bogaerts (11). These numbers fall well short compared to their NL West counterparts who won the World Series; the Los Angeles Dodgers finished second in home runs (244). To compete for a World Series title next year, the Padres must add power to their lineup. The Padres face a budget limitation of $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space, so they must remain selective, as they have several needs to address. They could pursue a cheap power bat who would give them the needed boost and allow them to pursue other top-tier talent. Likewise, the Padres benefit from not requiring a starter; they can target a bench bat who could serve as a platoon or DH option for rookie manager Craig Stammen. Let's analyze three players who fit this archetype and what they could bring to San Diego next season. *All contract predictions are based on NBC Sports' Free Agent Rankings Rhys Hoskins Hoskins has reliably produced over his eight-year MLB career, excluding the 2023 season that he missed due to a torn ACL. He owns a career .820 OPS and 121 wRC+, but striking out remains an issue. Last season, he posted a 27 percent strikeout rate, slightly higher than his 25 percent career average. Staying healthy has recently become another problem, as he has played more than 110 games in only four seasons. However, in each of those four seasons, he hit more than 25 home runs. When healthy, he consistently demonstrates power at the plate. As a right-handed bat, Hoskins could platoon at first base with Sheets, since Ryan O'Hearn became a free agent. Sheets struggles against left-handed pitchers over his career, and though he improved his OPS against lefties to .669 in 2025, significantly above his career average of .557, he's still a below-average contributor in those situations. With an estimated one-year price tag of $5 million, Hoskins looks like an ideal addition for the Padres. Mike Yastrzemski Yastrzemski spent seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants before being traded to the Kansas City Royals this past trade deadline. His price tag is estimated to be a one-year deal worth around $11 million. This past season, Yastrzemski hit 17 home runs and drove in 68 runs over 558 plate appearances. He had trouble striking out over his career, with a strikeout rate of at least 24 percent in each of his first six seasons, but in 2025, he reduced that to 19 percent. The 35-year-old offers a left-handed bat off the bench who can occasionally play in the outfield. Yastrzemski could platoon with Ramón Laureano, who had a breakthrough offensive campaign in 2025. He had an .812 OPS and a 127 wRC+ after being acquired at the trade deadline with the Baltimore Orioles. However, he's had up-and-down results against right-handed pitchers; overall, in his career, he has a .747 OPS in 1,979 plate appearances against righties. Yastrzemski, meanwhile, posted an .809 OPS and 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. As someone who can reliably fill in at all three outfield positions, he'd make a lot of sense as a fourth outfielder. Max Kepler Kepler stands out as another experienced outfielder who can platoon in left field with Laureano next season. In Kepler's 11-year career, he has produced roughly average overall results, but in seven different seasons, he has recorded more than 17 home runs. He hit 18 home runs last season and collected 90 hits in 474 plate appearances. That lack of overall production leads to an estimated $6 million price tag for a one-year deal. Kepler has alternated between single-digit and 17 or more home runs over his last six seasons—that trend is not ideal for a team that needs power production, but with the Padres facing budget restraints, Kepler's $6 million price tag appears enticing. It would allow them to spend on a higher-tier starting pitcher, especially with the latest news that Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season. View the full article

Following the Twins' introductory presser with Derek Shelton, media members held a scrum with Derek Falvey on what's ahead on their offseason agenda. Theo was a part of the scrum, and from what he heard from Falvey, it doesn't sound like much will be changing from the last two offseasons. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs ended their 2025 campaign with a game started by Drew Pomeranz. There was a time (before the Covid-19 pandemic) when that sentence wouldn't have seemed crazy, but that was also the last time that it wouldn't have. Since then, Pomeranz has transitioned from a starting pitcher to strictly a two-pitch reliever. Shota Imanaga, who was on regular rest, spent the entire game in the bullpen. There are many reasons the Cubs didn’t win the World Series in 2025, but their loss in Game 5 was truly a microcosm of what was wrong with the roster. They were one pitcher short, relying too much on a bullpen to hide the deficiencies of their rotation.. Jed Hoyer, in his end-of-year press conference, essentially admitted as much, speaking of how difficult it was for the team to make the additions they wished they could at the deadline. This will have change as the team looks to build on their 92-win season in 2026. Luckily for the Cubs, there are many options on the market. If they would like to attack the free-agent class, top-line arms such as Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez are all available to be signed while surrendering draft-pick compensation. If they don't love any of these options, they could look to the trade market, hoping that the prices on Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore or Edward Cabrera have come down. Instead, though, the Cubs may look to a place they have looked multiple times in the last few seasons: across the Pacific Ocean, to Japan. Enter: Tatsuya Imai, a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher from Japan's top flight, Nippon Professional Baseball. Imai's club, the Seibu Lions, have confirmed their intentions to allow the pitcher to come to America this offseason. His agent, Scott Boras, said Wednesday that the hurler will officially be posted on November 19, which is next Wednesday. Imai is likely to have plenty of suitors, and his contract is expected to rival those in the top tier of free agency, with The Athletic predicting he will earn north of $140 million. The Cubs have not been a team we associate with big-time free-agent contracts in recent years, but I think the righty may be the type of player the Cubs will be willing to break the bank on. To understand why the Cubs may target Imai, we need to first understand what the Cubs rotation lacks: strikeouts. In terms of ERA, the Cubs finished in the top 10, but they were 23rd in strikeout rate. Chicago’s defense is excellent, but adding more swing-and-miss would give the team’s run prevention a needed boost, and the Japanese star would certainly do that. He struck out 27.8% of all hitters and over 31% of righties in 2025. Ben Brown is the only Cub who made more than five starts with the team and struck out even 25% of opposing hitters. There is a caveat. Imai's fastball isn't going to be nearly as special in terms of velocity when he comes over. However, I don't think this will scare off the Cubs. To put it in context, in NPB, Imai had the second-fastest fastball in the league, clocking in around the 95-mph mark and touching 99 on occasion. When he comes over, though, his fastball will be around average for a right-handed starter in Major League Baseball, which was 94.6 mph last year. The good news for Imai is that his arm angle is funky, which should allow him to create deception. While NPB does not make arm angle public on their tracking site, it's likely that his angle will put him around the flattest in baseball. Compare the above video of Imai to the below video of Seattle Mariners' starter Bryan Woo. Woo clocks in around a 23° arm angle, the 12th-flattest of any starter in 2025. I expect Imai to be in that range. Uk8yeU5fWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFVSFZGUUhYd2NBWEFSVUFBQUhBVkFFQUZrRFUxa0FVRlVNVWxJRlV3b0RVVkZR.mp4 While I hesitate to compare the two directly in terms of fastball value, Woo's fastball sat at 95.6 mph last year. And while the shape of Woo's fastball is good, grading out on FanGraphs's Stuff+ as a 105, on shape and velocity alone, it falls short of elite. Despite that, Woo's fastball performs among the best in the league. It's pretty well-known that the Cubs, who threw the most four-seam fastballs of any team in 2025, value the pitch highly. While we shouldn’t expect Imai to duplicate Woo’s success with the four-seam fastball, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs attempt to use Woo as a template for what can be done. The Cubs have managed to squeeze extra velocity out of a few arms in their system over the years, and when you add year two of Tyler Zombro and everything Tread Athletics can do, it gives the Cubs a strong foundation to help get the most out of him. Imai may never dominate on velocity alone, but I think there’s potential for the pitch with a good fastball organization, like the Cubs. Imai’s most unique offering is his "slider". I'm going to be careful what I call it, though. It's not really a slider, at least in the traditional sense, because Imai throws his with arm-side run. This effectively makes it a “reverse” breaking ball, or screwball, running toward a right-handed batter instead of away from them (as most righties’ sliders do). I suspect that Stuff+ models will hate the pitch, but the results in Japan were stunning. The slider generated a 45.9% swing-and-miss rate, which would have placed it in the top 10 in whiff rate in MLB. It's fair to wonder how the pitch will play against American big-league hitters due to its unique nature, but if there's one thing I'm confident about, it’s that the Cubs aren't afraid of a funky pitch. Due to his slider-fastball combination, Imai has been absolutely deadly against right handed hitters. On the surface, this makes sense; both of these pitches play up against like-handed hitters before we factor in the funk factor of his delivery or slider profile. Beyond that, it would appear as though he added a sinker to his repertoire late in the season—yet another pitch that will help him navigate the best righty batters in the world. It’s great to have all of these offerings, but there’s a drawback; none of these pitches are great against left-handed hitters, and this has been a general Achilles heel for him over his career in NPB. One of the hallmarks of the Cubs pitching staff in 2025 was their on-the-fly development of changeups, a pitch often used to attack opposite-handed hitters. Both Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon, who badly needed an extra offering, developed very strong kick-changes before or during the 2025 season. It wouldn't appear as though Imai would be a direct candidate for the kick-change like the other two, as he tends to be more of a pronator to begin with. (The kick-change, which involves using the placement of the middle finger to "kick" the spin axis sideways as the ball comes off the fingers, has usually been a tool employed by pitchers who tend to supinate and specialize in glove-side movement.) Despite that, an organization who can continue to get the best ot his changeup is likely the organization willing to spend big on the pitcher to begin with. Before 2025, Imai had terrible walk issues with lefties, specifically, walking 11% of them in 2024. He developed a better changeup in 2025, which dropped his walk rate against lefties to 8.5% and allowed him to make major strides in terms of run prevention against them. The Cubs, an organization that excels at teaching the changeup, would continue to work with the pitcher to solve this issue. It's likely that this isn't entirely behind him, as the step up in competition will push him to his limits. I don't think that the overall package that Imai has today puts him in the same tier as Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he came over from NPB two offseasons ago; I don't think anyone does. Even the priciest predictions have Imai making around half of the $325 million that Yamamoto got from the Dodgers. But he's also a clear step above what Shota Imanaga was when the Cubs signed him, and he's proven capable of being somewhere between a second starter and a fourth-best option. I wouldn't expect Imai to headline a rotation, but I do think there's more than enough clay to mold a front-line option. There are probably going to be some tweaks. Imai's fastball location leaves something to be desired; the changeup is just starting out and likely needs refinement; and it will take a good organization to best use Imai's funky reverse slider. Still, I think he fits into how the Cubs view pitchers. They love four-seam fastballs, lower arm slots, changeups and funk. Imai fits Chicago in other ways, too. The Cubs have been active in scouting Japanese players under Hoyer. They have signed both Seiya Suzuki and Imanaga. They have been major players, regardless of outcome, when it comes to Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki. They have even reportedly offered a contract to 22-year-old, undrafted NPB outfielder Kotaru Tsunematsu (though we are unsure if he's accepted as of writing this article, and he seems as likely to become a force in their front office someday as to blossom on the field). He's also the right age for this kind of investment. Pitchers rarely hit the market at the age of 27. While the Cubs have shied away from big contracts, their two biggest signings of the last decade were offered to 26-year-old Jason Heyward and 29-year-old Dansby Swanson. Pitchers are aging better than hitters lately, too. Will Imai end up in Chicago? It’s no sure thing. The New York Mets are interested, and have recently signed Kodai Senga. The New York Yankees are always a premium destination and are looking for pitchers. There will be plenty of competition. But I also feel like this is a unique situation in which the pitcher's style aligns with much of what the Cubs like. Coming over from Japan, there is no draft-pick compensation attached, which is likely a factor for the Cubs. Taking all these factors in conjunction, I think the Cubs are going to put him very high on their offseason list. If the Cubs are going to spend $150 million on a player, Imai is probably the type they are willing to look at. View the full article

With Shane Bieber opting into his contract for the 2026 MLB season, the Toronto Blue Jays might have the front end of the rotation more or less set, with Kevin Gausman and Bieber leading the way. Bounce-back candidate José Berríos and promising rookie Trey Yesavage will presumably play roles in the middle of the rotation for the Jays this upcoming season. So, Toronto doesn't necessarily need to blow the bank to round out its starting rotation. Here, we will take a look at three free agent starting pitchers the Jays could pursue, all of whom will likely be available on shorter, less expensive deals than the arms at the very top of the market. Tyler Mahle Prior to 2025, Tyler Mahle would have been an under-the-radar candidate for contenders looking to fill out their rotations. That is because with a career ERA above 4.00, along with his injury woes in recent years, teams would have been more wary about his consistency and durability over an entire season. Yet, Mahle managed to put together the best season of his MLB career in 2025 with the Texas Rangers. He posted a 6-4 record with a tidy 2.18 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while giving up only five home runs in 86 2/3 innings pitched over 16 starts. His ability to prevent the long ball in recent years could come in handy for the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Centre. Having also just turned 31, Mahle should have plenty of gas left in the tank in the coming seasons (presuming he can stay healthy) to help Toronto build sustainable winning success going forward. Lucas Giolito Lucas Giolito was a revelation for the Boston Red Sox after returning from UCL surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. To complement Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet, Giolito posted a strong 10-4 record with a 3.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, together with 121 strikeouts in 145 innings pitched over 26 starts. Unfortunately, the 31-year-old right-hander suffered a right elbow injury in late September that ended up keeping him out of action during the postseason. Without the services of Giolito, the Red Sox were eliminated by the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card Series. Giolito would slot in nicely behind Gausman and Bieber to form a dominant trio for the Jays’ rotation in 2026. Given his past success pitching in the AL while playing for the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels and the Red Sox, the nine-year veteran should transition in seamlessly playing for Toronto. Brandon Woodruff Another elite pitching option that performed well after coming off surgery that kept him out of action for 2024, Brandon Woodruff returned to form just in time for the Milwaukee Brewers during the latter half of the 2025 season. He would compile a stellar 7-2 record with a 3.20 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, giving up just 14 walks while striking out 83 batters in just 64 2/3 innings of work over 12 starts down the stretch. Yet, similar to Giolito above, Woodruff would also miss the 2025 postseason due to a right lat strain that he sustained towards the end of September. As a result, the Brewers were also disposed of during the playoffs at the hands of the eventual champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers. One advantage Woodruff has over the two other candidates above is that when he is on his game, he can actually be one of the best in the league. However, his durability has always been an issue, having made more than 22 starts only twice during the past six seasons. That limits his overall potential impact. But, if the Blue Jays can bet on a clean bill of health for the veteran 32-year-old pitcher, Woodruff could turn out to be a huge steal this offseason for Toronto. View the full article

The Red Sox are in need of some starting pitching, and while there is some depth in the free agent market, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, and Zac Gallen are three of the more interesting names to consider. View the full article

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Toronto Blue Jays are expected to be suitors for former Tampa Bay Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Today, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic confirmed and expanded on that rumor. Bannon reported that the teams are targeting high-leverage relievers in free agency and identified Devin Williams, Phil Maton, and "other similar relievers" in addition to Fairbanks. Williams struggled through 67 appearances for the Bronx Bombers, logging 62 innings pitched in relief. Though he posted a career-high 4.79 ERA, his 2.68 FIP suggests he was better than the surface stat indicates. On the other hand, his K-BB rate of 25.0%, which would be considered low for most pitchers, was below his career average. If we can point to one thing as the reason for his struggles, it would be his league-worst 55.2% strand rate—a number roughly 20 points below his career norm and typically not predictive from one season to another. MLBTR projects him to net $68 million over four years. Maton appeared in 63 games between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers in 2026. He recorded a strong 2.79 ERA backed by an even better 2.60 FIP. Additionally, he posted a solid 23.4% K-BB rate. MLBTR named him an honorable mention on their top 50 free agents list, but didn't provide a contract prediction. Who are other high-leverage relievers you'd like to see the Blue Jays pursue? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

For the Chicago Cubs, when it comes to first base, Michael Busch will start for the next five years, health and skills permitting. After a tremendous 34-homer, 94-RBI season, we should expect him to man the position for the foreseeable future. The only nit to pick is his stats against left-handed pitching: a .207/.274/.368 batting line with only four home runs in 95 plate appearances. The recently-jettisoned clubhouse favorite Justin Turner sopped up some of those at-bats against southpaws in 2025 to varying degrees of effectiveness. With him now (likely) out of the picture, Cubs seem like a good fit for a right-handed bat who will be content playing on the short side of a platoon, but the opportunity to be creative is here if the Cubs want to upgrade in multiple areas. Note that we'll be using MLB Trade Rumors' expert predictions for each player's projected contract on this list. THE PERFECT FIT Paul Goldschmidt, Yankees: Projected contract of one-year, $8 million The 38-year-old veteran fits the lefty masher profile. He did, in fact, mash lefties last season to the tune of .336/.411/.570 line while a member of the Yankees. At his age, the market will not yield a major contract for him in years or dollars; he played last year on a one-year deal for just $12 million. After losing time to Ben Rice in New York, Goldschmidt reportedly wants a cleaner path to playing time in 2026 and is amenable to a short-term deal. The Cubs would be the perfect landing spot for him. There would be plenty of opportunities at the cold corner when Busch sits, as well as potential turns at DH from time to time. Goldschmidt would also be a perfect Justin Turner replacement in the clubhouse. All one has to do is Google the phrase "Paul Goldschmidt teammate" and page upon page of results pop up, all of them reflecting a positive impact. He would theoretically be the perfect fit for the Cubs roster on a one-year deal. Verdict: A perfect fit for what the Cubs would be looking for at this position in 2026. OTHER POSSIBLE FITS Kazuma Okamoto, Japan: Projected contract of four-years, $64 million Okamoto can play third or first and would be a theoretical fit that was already discussed on this fine website. His Cubs candidacy is tricky, especially because he'd be getting starter money for a utility or bench role. It's unclear is if he would be willing to come play in a non-full-time role; Matt Shaw seems established at third for now, and of course Busch is entrenched at first. Verdict: A great fit who would raise the talent in the lineup and add depth to the bench. Highly unlikely due to price tag and role questions. Josh Bell, Nationals: Projected contract of one-year, $5 million Bell is somewhat of a poor fit for the Cubs' needs. He only hit .151 against left-handed pitching this past season—at that number, Busch is a better option. Still only 33 years old, Bell may also be looking for a more consistent starting role like the one he had in Washington this year. If the Cubs are looking for Busch to get a breather and DH insurance for Moises Ballesteros, Bell could fit the bill. He's been known to have nuclear months at the plate as well. In September, for example, he slashed posted a 145 wRC+ with six home runs. He'd add another streaky layer to an already-streaky offense, but there's a lot of talent in his bat. Of course, streakiness can go both ways. In April 2025, Bell posted a .503 OPS. If such a stretch were to happen for the Cubs in, say, August of this year, the streak issue would be amplified. Defensively, Bell adds nothing of value. Verdict: Bell is the type of player Jed Hoyer signs only if the terms are in the Cubs' favor and other options fall flat. Not a likely player to target, but one that could fall to Chicago if the price is right. UNLIKELY OPTIONS Ryan O'Hearn, Padres: Projected contract of two-years, $26 million Historically a bat that is platooned against left-handed pitching, similar to Michael Busch. O'Hearn would be redundant, although he could fill in a corner outfield spot as well. Luis Arraez, Padres: Projected contract of two-years, $24 million Arraez simply doesn't fit the Cubs' analytic model on offense. It would be fun to watch him and Nico Hoerner in a home run derby though. THE SHOCKER Pete Alonso, Mets: Projected contract of four-years, $110 million Slugging from the right-hand side of the plate is a need. Extreme power is a need for every franchise. Pete Alonso fits both of these needs, but can only play first base. No, let's not start the Michael Busch to second base narrative again, but Alonso could make sense with some creativity. In 2025, Alonso hit for a higher average than the past two seasons, batting .278 after a few poor efforts prior seasons. The power has not fluctuated, though. Since 2021, he's totaled between 34 and 46 home runs every season. He's not a plate approach genius (53rd percentile walk rate), but not a whiff king either (40th percentile for strikeout rate). The Cubs do sorely need power, which Alonso would provide. The question is, of course, how they will value the profile of an aging first baseman. Alonso is represented by Scott Boras and is reported to be seeking a seven-year deal. With him entering his 30s, the question will be how hard the aging curve strikes. He's already a negative defender and baserunner; if the bat and power wanes over time, the decline phase would be a real burden at his proposed cost. It does not seem like the type of profile Hoyer tends to gamble on. Alonso would also make Michael Busch redundant and force one of them to DH more often than either would like, which is an issue with a roster that already has Seiya Suzuki and Moises Ballesteros. Verdict: Would be a fun, exciting signing, but unlikely given the risk and cost. Ultimately, Busch has earned the runway to start at first base. This front office, though, values optionality over pretty much anything else procedure wise. A veteran southpaw masher fits their needs. Anything more would be an interesting pivot for a team that has bigger holes to fill elsewhere on the roster. View the full article

The Twins’ farm system continued to show its strength in 2025, with several top names taking significant steps forward while others refined their games against tougher competition. Each of Minnesota’s top five prospects provided new clues about what kind of player they could become at the next level. Two of those players joined the organization during last season’s trade deadline sell-off, when Minnesota moved veteran pieces to restock a thinning prospect pool. Those deals, combined with strong player development and recent draft success, have helped the Twins build one of baseball’s highest-ranked farm systems. The group is now deep, balanced, and full of players who project to make an impact in the near future, with the five names at the top standing out as the foundation for that success. Walker Jenkins: He’s The Best Twins Prospect Since… Jenkins entered the season with enormous expectations, and he somehow managed to exceed them. After dominating at Double A (154 wRC+), Jenkins was promoted to Triple-A St. Paul before his 21st birthday, a rare feat even for baseball’s best prospects. The Twins have been aggressive with him, despite injuries causing him to miss time in his first two pro seasons. Scouts have compared his combination of bat speed, plate discipline, and raw power to the early days of Joe Mauer or Byron Buxton, two of the best prospects in Twins history. Minnesota hasn’t had a prospect this complete in years, and his ceiling looks every bit as high as advertised. Kaelen Culpepper: He Can Stick at Shortstop When the Twins selected Culpepper out of Kansas State, there were questions about whether he would eventually move to third base. This season, he silenced those doubts. His footwork, range, and arm strength all took visible steps forward; he handled every defensive challenge thrown his way. Offensively, his consistent contact and improving gap power (138 wRC+) make him a valuable piece for the organization’s future infield plans. Jenkins gets a lot of the prospect love, but Culpepper has a chance to be an All-Star. For a team looking to build around athletic, versatile players, Culpepper’s progress was a significant win. Eduardo Tait: He’s the Organization’s Catcher of the Future It’s been a while since the Twins have had a catching prospect who looked like a long-term answer behind the plate, but Tait is quickly changing that narrative. Minnesota acquired him as the headliner in the Jhoan Duran trade. The young Panamanian backstop made a name for himself in 2025 with strong defensive skills and advanced pitch-framing ability for his age. Even more encouraging was his offensive consistency, showing power to all fields with a 103 wRC+, despite being one of the youngest players in the Midwest League. If his development continues on this trajectory, he could become the everyday catcher by the time the next core of Twins prospects reaches Target Field. Emmanuel Rodriguez: His OBP Is Still High, Even Against Advanced Pitching Rodriguez’s on-base skills have always been elite, and that remained true in 2025 despite facing more advanced competition. His walk rate has stayed above 21% over the last two seasons at Triple-A, while being over four years younger than the average age of the competition. Pitchers continued to challenge him with breaking balls and elevated fastballs, but his strike-zone judgment held firm. Even when his batting average dipped (down 11 points compared to 2024), Rodriguez found ways to get on base and impact games. While he still needs to cut down on swing-and-miss tendencies, his approach gives him a high floor as a future regular who can provide power and patience in the middle of the order. Mick Abel: He Has the Chance to Be the Next Joe Ryan Acquired from Philadelphia (along with Tait), Abel joined the Twins organization with high expectations. His fastball played well up in the zone, and his curveball showed the kind of late movement that generates weak contact and strikeouts (39.1 Whiff%). There were some rough patches during his first taste of the big leagues, but even future All-Stars can struggle early in their careers. The Twins’ player development staff will get an entire offseason to work with him to refine his pitch mix, with a chance for him to take the next step in 2026. Much like Joe Ryan before him, Abel combines competitiveness with plus stuff, and if he establishes better control, he could be the next pitcher to thrive under Minnesota’s pitching development model. The Twins’ top five prospects each progressed in meaningful ways in 2025, from flashing elite hitting potential to steady defensive growth and emerging leadership. Four of these players could impact the big-league roster next season. For a team looking to put the last two seasons in the rearview mirror, that's exciting. As the organization looks to sustain success at the major-league level, this group constitutes a strong foundation for the next wave of talent ready to make its mark in Minnesota. What stands out about Minnesota’s top five prospects and their 2025 performances? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The last thing I expected to see this offseason was the Miami Marlins spending money on an old, left-handed-hitting outfielder. Although we are still many steps away from that coming to fruition, Mike Yastrzemski is "one possibility for them," Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports. Yastrzemski has been a consistently average-to-very-good player ever since he debuted in the majors in 2019. This past season was on track to be arguably the worst of his career, but a deadline deal sending Yaz to the Kansas City Royals rejuvenated his bat. In 146 total games in 2025, he slashed .233/.333/.403 with 17 home runs and seven stolen bases, accumulating 2.4 fWAR. He turned 35 in August. As Morosi noted in his report, Marlins general manager Gabe Kapler was the San Francisco Giants manager from 2020-2023. Yastrzemski was on the team throughout Kapler's tenure. It would still be a peculiar roster fit and use of resources. All-Star Kyle Stowers and standout rookie Jakob Marsee—both of whom also hit from the left side—are projected to be everyday starters for the Marlins. Griffin Conine and Heriberto Hernández could theoretically platoon to adequately fill the remaining corner outfield spot. Yastrzemski has generally rated well defensively, but his glove wouldn't be a clear upgrade over any of those names, particularly at this stage of his career. Starting Yastrzemski primarily as Miami's designated hitter would add some value. However, that implies Agustín Ramírez will continue catching on a regular basis, and his struggles there would negate a lot of the offensive boost. Maybe the Marlins intend to convert somebody to first base? That is their most glaring hole entering 2026. Yaz has no professional experience at the position, for what it's worth. View the full article

It seems as though the second base position has been cursed for the Boston Red Sox ever since Manny Machado slid spikes up into Dustin Pedroia’s knee, effectively ending his career. In the ensuing years, the position has been a revolving door for the team. There was some hope that Kristian Campbell would be able to step in and become the second baseman of the future after he broke camp with the big league club for the 2025 season, but that experiment lasted around a month before major league pitching caught up with him and he finished his season in Triple-A Worcester. Even if there's hope that his bat will turn around, his defense was so putrid that it's hard to rely on him to run away with the job in 2026. There’s some hope that Marcelo Mayer could be the person to solidify the position, but he’s better suited for shortstop or third base, and his struggles to stay healthy give a bit of pause for concern. Trevor Story could slide to second to play Mayer at his natural position, but would the team do that to a veteran player coming off such a strong season? Probably not, unless Story himself advocated for the position switch. On top of that, President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow confirmed that Story would be the shortstop moving forward. That leaves us scouring the free-agent market to see just who could plug into second base for at least the 2026 season and offer more than just a warm body to the Red Sox. Get ready, because the second base market is about as shallow as the wading section at your local pool. Gleyber Torres (29, 2.6 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 4-years $13 million $52 million Kiley McDaniel 3-years $19 million $57 million Torres had a rebound season in Detroit after signing a one-year, prove-it contract before the 2025 season. He slashed .256/.358/.387 with 16 home runs, 74 RBIs, and a 113 wRC+. He played 134 games at second this season while committing five errors with a .990 fielding percentage. He’s earned a longer-term contract than he had going into the 2025 season, but he leaves a lot to be desired from a consistency standpoint. He's streaky, just a year removed from the worst season of his career where he was almost a walking strikeout. If this is the best the team can do, they may be better off hoping an internal option presents itself during spring training instead. He also has a qualifying offer attached to him, and that could keep the Red Sox from being interested in the former Yankee. Jorge Polanco (32, 2.6 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 2-years $13 million $26 million Kiley McDaniel 2-years $13 million $26 million Ben Clemens 2-years $15 million $30 million Much like Torres above, Polanco had his best statistical season in ages in 2025. He slashed .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs, 78 RBIs, and posted a 132 wRC+. He had the potential to be a playoff hero for the Mariners until a cold spell slowed him down in the ALCS. The biggest issue here is that Polanco is 32 and he saw more time at DH (88 games) than second base (38 games). He can’t be trusted to take on a full season at second anymore and still produce those kinds of offensive numbers. He’s likely in line for a two-year deal and paying someone who is a bat-first second baseman doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox. who can turn to Kristian Campbell for the same purpose. It’s telling that the Mariners opted to not extend a qualifying offer to Polanco, as his age and lack of positional versatility are working against him in a weak market. Ha-Seong Kim (30, 0.3 fWAR) Projected Contract Analyst Length AAV Total Jim Bowden 3-years $13 million $39 million Kiley McDaniel 1-year $16 million $16 million Tim Britton 3-years $16.7 million $50 million Kim only played in 48 games this season, so take his stats with a grain of salt. He slashed .234/.304/.345 with five home runs, 17 RBIs, six stolen bases, and posted an 82 wRC+. He’s a shortstop first, so we have to get a bit creative here, but if he would shift to second it would take strain off his him throwing arm and hopefully allow him to get back to where he was pre-injury. I’m struggling to see a multi-year deal for Kim, though, and I think he’s going to have to sign a one-year, prove-it deal. He declined a player option with the Braves for $16 million, so he will likely be looking to get above that, but he may end up settling for less when push comes to shove. That’s a pretty thin market if you ask me. There are other names out there like Luis Rengifo, who has all the tools to be a successful second baseman now that he’s moved there full time, but he’s been unable to put it together so far. Luis Arraez is another second baseman that technically checks the boxes for the Red Sox, and he could be a buy-low candidate after a tough season, but it’s hard to see the team handing him a multi-year contract at this point in his career when he played just 14 games out of 154 at second base in 2025. He profiles as a first baseman now, but one without pop. Given the state of the market, the Red Sox are likely going to have to hope that an internal name breaks out as their next second baseman, or make a trade that no one sees coming to fill the glaring hole up the middle. Can I interest anyone in Ketel Marte? View the full article

Speaking to DiamondCentric's John Bonnes at the GM Meetings on Wednesday, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said the Jays "definitely, definitely have interest" in extending Daulton Varsho, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. "The interest is definitely there," said Atkins. "I can't say enough about Daulton, the player, the person, the teammate. He checks all the boxes we're looking for." The GM did not want to speak about any potential negotiations, but from his tone, it certainly seems like an extension for Varsho will be one of the team's priorities this winter. Varsho, widely considered one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, is coming off an injury-shortened but highly promising 2025 campaign. Tapping into his power like never before, he hit 20 home runs in 71 contests, with a career-best .833 OPS, .341 xwOBA, and 123 wRC+. He finished with 2.2 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR in less than half a season of games. Featured image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images. View the full article