DiamondCentric

Ian Happ is so much more than just the longest-tenured member of the Chicago Cubs. He's now a four-time reigning Gold Glover in left field, a remarkable achievement considering the team had no idea where to put him for the first five seasons of his career. He's also got a career 116 wRC+ and 20.6 fWAR to his name, not to mention a few clutch postseason hits that span across the last relevant Cubs core and this one. In a vacuum, Happ is one of the most consistent players in the sport. He's been above average at the plate without fail, posting a wRC+ figure between 106 and 132 in every season of his career. Narrow the scope to just the last four seasons, and that margin becomes impossibly thin; Happ's wRC+ hasn't fluctuated more than six points since the start of 2022, sitting between 116 and 122. He's also been worth a reliable amount of WAR in that span, contributing between 2.8fWAR and 3.7fWAR to the cause every season. On the surface, he's as dependable as it gets. He plays 150-plus games per campaign—a mark he hasn't fallen below since 2021, when he played in 148 contests. He walks a ton, working a 13.2% free pass rate since 2023. He plays quality defense in left field. He's no superstar, but he's the kind of franchise "glue guy" that puts in the work and gets the job done on an annual basis, no questions asked. Except, if you know anything about Happ, you know he's really one of the streakiest hitters in the sport. On just a month-to-month basis in 2025, his performance looks like what the main character would achieve in a C-student's high school interpretation of Jekyll and Hyde on a baseball diamond: March/April: .722 OPS, 108 wRC+ May: .684 OPS, 98 wRC+ June: .779 OPS, 115 wRC+ July: .638 OPS, 86 wRC+ August: .835 OPS, 134 wRC+ September: .892 OPS, 148 wRC+ October (Postseason): .490 OPS, 31 wRC+ If you were to get even more granular and take a look back at his individual games and series, the contrast would be even more stark and unnerving. Seriously, go and look through North Side Baseball's repository of Happ-related articles—it won't take long before you find two diametrically-opposed pieces using equally-valid evidence to support extreme hypotheses about Happ. Here's one from Aug. 10 reassuring Cubs fans that everything would be all right after a disastrous July, and here's one literally two weeks later vouching for Happ to be benched for top prospect Owen Caissie. Over the course of a 162-game season, you can live with peaks and valleys if the end result is reliable and predictable. In the one-mistake-and-you're-out environment of the playoffs, though, it's harder to swallow that pill. Happ may have hit two (seemingly, at the time) crucial home runs against the Brewers in the NLDS, but he also struck out in 39.4% of his plate appearances in October. That just won't fly. However, that's not necessarily the reason the Cubs should consider trading Happ this winter. Nor is the fact that top prospects Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara (who is out of minor league options) are banging on the door and in need of playing time in a crowded outfield picture. This is purely an argument about long-term planning, which the Cubs haven't done the best job of in recent years. As things stand, the only guaranteed money on the books after the 2026 season is the remaining $81 million on Dansby Swanson's contract. Yes, there are various options and players bound to earn millions of dollars via arbitration, but the only payout the Cubs will be forced to make in 2027 as of this moment is for Swanson. That obviously means that there's plenty of room for a long-term contract or two or three to be added to the payroll this offseason, but it also means the Cubs aren't taking any risks when it comes to the impending 2027 lockout. They've structured the roster in a way to ensure that, no matter what happens in next year's CBA negotiations, they won't be caught off guard. In a pragmatic sense, what that amounts to is the fact that a vast majority of the veterans on this roster are due to become free agents in a year's time. Right now, that list includes: C Carson Kelly (mutual option) C Reese McGuire 2B Nico Hoerner LF Ian Happ RF Seiya Suzuki SP Jameson Taillon SP Matthew Boyd (mutual option) SP/RP Colin Rea (club option) That's a comical amount of talent to lose in one offseason, and you can be sure the team will at least broach the extension conversation with a number of those players. But, seeing as everyone on that list besides Hoerner is already at least 30 years old, it might be time to start consolidating the roster. The Milwaukee Brewers have been pulling this trick for ages -- they've traded Corbin Burnes, Yovani Gallardo, Devin Williams, and now potentially Freddy Peralta when they were one year out from free agency -- and have made it out unscathed every time. And each of those players were dominant pitchers in their prime, a decidedly more valuable asset than Happ is right now with his one year of control remaining at a $19 million salary. It doesn't have to be Happ of course. I maintain my belief that trading Jameson Taillon while the iron is hot after his second-half performance could yield long-term dividends, Hoerner is probably too valuable to move thanks to his defense and contact skills, but Suzuki could bring in a nice return from a team in need of power if the Cubs don't mind purging all of the Japanese talent from their roster in the same offseason. And this doesn't have to be the path the team takes. They can commit to this roster for 2026 and go all-in on their last year of certainty before the CBA expires. But, that would require a level of commitment that this team hasn't been accustomed to in quite some time—it'd be several steps further than how they treated 2025 with the Kyle Tucker trade. Given his inconsistencies and the team's directionless path forward, trading Happ may be a necessary evil. The Cubs wouldn't need him to bring back top prospects in a deal (they'd certainly prefer major-league-ready talent, especially on the pitching side), and his excellent defense, switch-hitting prowess and season-long reliability would tempt a lot of other teams in trade talks, especially given how barren the outfield market is in free agency after Tucker and Cody Bellinger. It feels wrong to suggest given his importance to Chicago as the last remaining piece from 2017 and before, but Ian Happ might be better suited as a trade chip than a Cub this offseason. View the full article

The Seidler Family was the latest baseball ownership group to announce that they intend to put their team, the San Diego Padres, up for sale, as the 2025-2026 offseason is in its infancy. The Seidler Family has had majority ownership of the Padres since 2012, with the late Peter Seidler operating as the team’s control person from 2020 until his death on November 14, 2023. Since Peter Seidler’s death, there have been numerous legal battles over who should have a controlling interest in the team, as his widow, Sheel Seidler, sued his brothers Matt and Bob Seidler after their brother John was appointed as acting chairman of the Padres while the appointment was still pending league approval earlier this year. On top of the legal battles between the Seidler brothers and Sheel Seidler, the Padres had also taken out a $50 million loan to help cover payroll during the 2023 season, as reported by Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic in November of 2023. With debt accumulated and an ongoing lawsuit that has not been settled in or out of court, the sale of the Padres could take much longer than folks anticipate. The announcement that the Seidlers are putting the Padres up for sale comes just a few months after the last baseball ownership family, the Pohlads, decided to take their team, the Minnesota Twins, off the market after a 10-month process in which no sale took place. The Pohlads did not have any legal action surrounding their ownership of the Twins that was attached to their exploration of selling the team; however, they had accumulated nearly $500 million in debt and were asking for a selling price of no less than $1.7 billion, which was around the price tag the Angelos family sold the Baltimore Orioles for to their current owner, David Rubenstein. Reports indicated the Pohlads were unwilling to go any lower on a sale price of $1.7 billion after their initial deal with Chicago White Sox minority owner Justin Ishbia fell through in spring training this year. The Pohlads had received offers as high as $1.5 billion for the Twins, but interested parties were unwilling to assume a significant portion of the team's debt, which they hoped a potential buyer would take on. It’s unclear whether the Seidlers have paid off their $50 million loan and interest at this time, or whether they have any additional outstanding debt associated with the Padres. But given the issues the Pohlads had with the Twins trying to attach their debt to the sale to a new owner, any debt attached to the Padres will be an issue for a potential buyer as well. With the lawsuit between Peter Seidler’s widow and his brothers still ongoing, it’s fair to assume the announcement of a new owner of the Padres will not come any sooner than Opening Day at the earliest. The best-case scenario for the Padres to move the sale along quickly is an Opening Day announcement, but given what is tied to this ownership group, both on and off the field, and the Twins' sale process track record, it’s a safer bet that the Padres' sale process could take a minimum of six months and up to a year before a new ownership group is announced and then approved by MLB. But with an impending lockout looming a year from now, it might speed up the pace of the sale process so MLB can have a new ownership group in place before the lockout begins next offseason. There’s no telling how long this sale process will take, but assuming it will take less than six months is a fool's errand. The saga surrounding the sale process of the Twins is just the latest track record to set the precedent ahead for the Padres, and that is what Padres fans should expect to follow as their sale process begins next week. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs sit on the precipice of their most important offseason in a decade, though their commitment to the short-term window remains a genuine question.View the full article

The Twins are likely to non-tender Trevor Larnach in the coming weeks, but there is a case to be made for him to be one of the Twins' top trade candidates. Larnach will not net the highest return in any trade on his own, but he could at least alleviate his salary while getting a new reliever in a wide-open bullpen. View the full article

Major League Baseball’s annual General Manager Meetings mark the kickoff of the hot stove season, when trade and acquisition rumors first start percolating before coming to a boil at December’s Winter Meetings. The 2025 edition is this week in Las Vegas, and the Minnesota Twins came in with a plan. “We sent [Twins president] Derek Falvey to Vegas with two things: An open mind and a Ziploc bag full of pennies,” said a source close to the Pohlad family, who’ve owned the Twins since 1982. While the former makes sense for a team that may be continuing a major roster teardown, why the pennies? “There are some great joints off-Strip or in north Vegas where the penny slots are loose as heck,” said the source. “If Derek wants a platoon outfielder or a bullpen arm, here’s one way of getting there.” The meetings themselves were held at The Cosmopolitan, right in the heart of the Las Vegas Strip. “Yeah, you’re not getting any bargain action at a place like that,” said the source. “That’s where the Dodgers stay. No thanks. Derek likes to get creative, anyway.” Multiple media sources covering the meetings told Twins Daily that Falvey was spotted lugging the coin bag into multiple off-strip locations, including a combination Pizza Hut/Taco Bell by Nellis Air Force Base; the Cowabunga Bay Waterslide Experience; and what local authorities and community leaders say is the deadliest strip mall in Henderson. At press time, there was no indication that Falvey had won big or that the Twins had made any roster moves. Still, the source was confident that it would pay off in the long run. “The Pohlads had their faithful manservants clean out all the coins from their fleet of Land Rovers and Bentleys,” said the source. “We didn’t even touch the Rolls (Royces) or Porsches. There are at least the beginnings of a utility infielder in there.” View the full article

The Boston Red Sox are gearing up for a lucrative offseason, though they must decide whether to make their blockbuster moves via free agency or trade. Will they re-sign Alex Bregman, and will they pursue Munetaka Murakami?View the full article

Fueled by his friendship with Seiya Suzuki and his eye-catching fashion choices, Pete Crow-Armstrong became an international star when the Cubs went to Japan to open the 2025 regular season. Next March, he won't have to endure as long a flight to experience the same global spotlight. He has accepted an offer to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, starting with pool play in Houston in March, he announced Thursday night. Any list of center fielders on the wish list for American manager Mark DeRosa was going to include Crow-Armstrong, and since Byron Buxton (arguably the only other center fielder from the U.S. better than Crow-Armstrong in 2025) will probably elect to avoid the injury risk of playing high-stakes games three weeks before Opening Day, the Cubs' young star has a clear path to playing time for his country. He won't be the Cubs' only representative in the tournament, but Crow-Armstrong is the one who could enjoy a further star turn by playing well there. That doesn't come with direct benefits for the Cubs. In fact, in addition to the slight risk of injury and the significant disruption of the preparation process that is spring training, this is likely to put extra time pressure on any attempts to sign him to a long-term deal. The two sides can't talk as easily with Crow-Armstrong in Houston. As Crow-Armstrong's profile continues to grow, he's also in an increasingly comfortable negotiating position. If the Cubs want to lock him up beyond 2030, they might already need to shift their focus from trying to capture value on a team-friendly extension toward paying the market rate for his services. Contracts signed by similarly famous and talented players (Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, Fernando Tatis Jr.) have worked that way, even when the player didn't appear to have the short-term earning power or proximity to free agency to extract that kind of payday. Those players are all better than Crow-Armstrong, whose second-half struggles at the plate exposed very real weaknesses. However, his freakish athleticism and the upside he flashed with a calendar year (from August 2024 through July 2025) during which he batted .271/.312/.524 in 687 plate appearances make him just as dynamic as they are—and he's becoming that caliber of celebrity, too. The Tokyo Series to open 2025, his showcase at the All-Star Game and the Cubs making a two-round push into the postseason put Crow-Armstrong very much on the global map this year. Next year, he'll get to continue carving out a niche. He might even prove himself to be the best defender in baseball, anywhere in the world. The World Baseball Classic is wonderful because of players just like Crow-Armstrong; the endlessly charismatic Randy Arozarena was one of the biggest stars of the last one. Next spring's event continues to fill up with big names, and that's what Crow-Armstrong has already become. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins enter the offseason with more questions than answers. Ownership appears poised to reduce payroll, but the front office still hopes to be competitive in a winnable AL Central. That balancing act could push Derek Falvey and company to explore creative ways to improve the roster without adding significant salary. One of the clearest paths to doing that might be to deal from their outfield depth, an area where the organization has plenty of talent and intrigue. At this week's GM Meetings in Las Vegas, Jon Morosi reported that the demand for starting-caliber outfielders is high. That's a bit obvious, and the report is short on details or newsworthy nuggets, but it might turn out to signal something real about the outfield market this winter. For the Minnesota Twins, that could not come at a better time. The organization boasts a deep group of major-league and near-ready outfielders, giving the front office an opportunity to get creative. Byron Buxton: Unlikely though it seemed a few months ago, Buxton might waive his no-trade clause to join a contending club—particularly if the Twins continue to move veteran players this winter. He's coming off one of the best offensive stretches of his career and remains a highly athletic center fielder. His contract is team-friendly, and with several clubs looking for star-level outfielders, his value is at an all-time high. Trading Buxton would be a seismic move for the franchise, but it is one the front office might entertain if ownership prioritizes trimming costs. Matt Wallner: Wallner experienced ups and downs last season but still managed to post a 110 OPS+, making him one of the more productive hitters in the Twins’ lineup. His combination of raw power and patience makes him an intriguing trade piece for teams looking for a controllable corner outfielder with upside. Minnesota could decide to hold onto Wallner and hope for another step forward in his development, but if the front office wants to shake up the core, he could be one of the first players moved. Trevor Larnach: Larnach’s future with the Twins appears uncertain. He is projected to make $4.7 million through arbitration, too high a salary for a player without a clear path to everyday playing time. He had a 116 OPS+ in 2024, but that dipped below average in 2025 (99 OPS+). Minnesota could explore trading him before the non-tender deadline, but his market value might be limited. While his raw tools still stand out, most teams view Larnach as a depth piece, rather than a lineup cornerstone. Austin Martin: Martin quietly finished the season strong and flashed the all-around game that once made him a top prospect. In 50 games, he produced a .740 OPS with 11 steals and a solid 31-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ability to play multiple positions adds value, but another team could view him as an emerging regular after a promising finish. Trading Martin could address another area of need, though they may prefer to see if he can take another step forward next spring. Minnesota’s outfield picture becomes even more crowded when factoring in recent trade deadline acquisitions. James Outman and Alan Roden both project to step into more consistent playing time if the Twins move one or more of their current outfielders. Top prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins both finished last season at Triple-A St. Paul and should arrive in the majors as early as 2026, giving the organization even more reason to consider dealing from its depth. The Twins are in a rare position: they can trade from strength without compromising their long-term outlook. If the rest of the league’s demand for outfielders remains high, Minnesota may find that its deepest position could also be its best source of value this winter. Whom should the Twins consider trading from the list above? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

After spending nearly a month with the Brewers as a member of their taxi squad from late September through their postseason run to the NLCS, Jeferson Quero has returned to game action in winter ball. In the hitter-friendly Venezuelan Winter League, he has slashed .269/.356/.558 with four home runs. "He's a great kid, and he's a good player, and we're seeing it in winter ball right now," Brewers president of baseball operations and general manager Matt Arnold said earlier this week at MLB's annual GM Meetings in Las Vegas. "He's doing great. I feel like I get a new highlight emailed or texted to me every [day]. 'Hey, he hit another homer.' It's cool." With veterans Eric Haase and Danny Jansen no longer in the organization, Quero is the only full-time catcher on the 40-man roster, other than William Contreras. (Anthony Seigler is there, too, but has been predominantly an infielder for the last three seasons.) The Brewers could add a veteran to the mix this offseason to bolster their depth, but barring such an acquisition, Quero is in line to make his major-league debut next year as Contreras's backup. "We're always looking for depth, and competition is a good thing," Arnold said of Milwaukee's catching mix. "But I think Jeferson is a really special kid." A couple of years ago, it seemed Quero's moment would come much sooner. He breezed through three levels in his first two years of full-season ball, despite being nearly four years younger than his average peer at High A and Double A. His strong bat-to-ball skills played just fine against older pitching, and the hope was that he could translate more of his raw power into games down the line. Defensively, his elite throwing arm and mature handling of pitching staffs turned heads. Entering his age-21 season, Quero looked like the complete package and appeared on the cusp of reaching the majors. The Brewers selected his contract in November 2023 to protect him from that winter's Rule 5 draft, and he began the following season in Triple-A Nashville. Unfortunately, a pair of injury-marred seasons slowed what had been a quick ascent. Quero's first regular-season plate appearance of 2024 would be his last, as he suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder on a dive back into first base and underwent season-ending surgery. A hamstring injury delayed his return to play until June 2025, after which the Brewers frequently utilized him as a DH to ease him back into the rigors of catching. When he did catch, Quero was not his usual self behind the plate. Most notably, his dominance over opposing running games (quantified by Baseball Prospectus as Swipe Runs) cratered. Season Framing Runs Blocking Runs Swipe Runs CS% CDA 2022 5.4 1.5 4.3 31% 12.3 2023 7.0 -0.5 4.5 35% 10.7 2025 -0.3 -0.2 -1.1 19% -1.6 In Quero's defense, that framing number should be taken with a grain of salt in a small sample of 34 games, and many of the successful steal attempts against him occurred on poorly-located pitches that put him in a suboptimal throwing position. Even so, it was clear that his formerly 70-grade arm was much closer to good than elite after major surgery. After he posted a subpar 29.7% hard-hit rate with an unremarkable 90th-percentile exit velocity of 102.8 mph, Quero's power surge in winter ball could be a sign that he's finally closing in on full strength after two trying years. His outlook in 2026 hinges heavily on his throwing and receiving trending toward their previous levels, along with improving his plate discipline to maximize his contact skills. While his walk rate was in line with the Triple-A average, his 36.8% chase rate ranked in the 11th percentile of hitters. Quero could still benefit from more minor-league seasoning, but the Brewers could instead work on those swing decisions at the big-league level, especially if he's only playing in a part-time capacity. They may also be more patient with the flaws in his game, because they hold his intangibles in such high regard. Quero's demeanor in spring training impressed Pat Murphy, who dubbed him "maybe my favorite prospect that's ever been with the Brewers." He's also an excellent game caller, and he showed an impressive knack for reading swings and sequencing pitches while catching live at-bats during the team's five-day bye before the NLDS. Those positive first impressions (coupled with a sparse free-agent catching market) could make the backup role Quero's to lose come spring training. "Whether that's on Opening Day or a couple years from now, I'm very excited about his future," Arnold said. DiamondCentric's John Bonnes contributed reporting to this story. View the full article

Major League Baseball introduced a brand-new award last night and bestowed the inaugural prize on Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy is MLB's very first Entertainer of the Year. It's a well-deserved honour for one of the most delightful personalities in the sport, both on the field and off. Guerrero was not present at the awards show on Thursday, so his godfather, Hall of Famer Pedro Martínez, accepted on his behalf. In other Blue Jays awards news, Guerrero was also named to the All-MLB First Team, winning over Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz. In even more of a surprise, Bo Bichette earned Second Team honours, beating out shortstops like Geraldo Perdomo, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, and Jeremy Peña. Featured image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images. View the full article

During his November 6 media availability, a reporter asked Ross Atkins about Jeff Hoffman’s role as Toronto’s closer. “The great thing about Jeff is he’s not married to that,” Atkins said. “I think he would be open to anything that makes us better.” In the same media event, Atkins indicated that Toronto was open to improving the team through any means. So, if Toronto is open to adding a bona fide closer in the free-agent market, who are some closers worth considering? Hoffman had a disappointing 2025. On the positive side, among all pitchers, his Whiff% and K% were both in the 83rd percentile. However, his xERA, BB% and Barrel% percentile rankings were 57th, 26th and 1st, respectively. Furthermore, surrendering home runs was an issue, not only in Game 7 of the World Series but also during the regular season. Hoffman’s 2025 regular-season HR/9 was 1.99, tied for the second-highest among 144 relievers with at least 50 innings pitched. Therefore, although I am confident that Hoffman will be better next year, one can understand why Toronto would consider adding a closer to its 2026 bullpen. I identified four free-agent closers as options for the Blue Jays: Edwin Díaz, Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez, and Devin Williams. These relievers were the first four closers listed on MLB Trade Rumors' (“MLBTR”) list of the top 50 free agents. Before I delve into the 2025 results of these closers, let’s review how they performed in the three seasons before. Consider Table 1. The listed relievers had impressive resumes before the 2025 campaign. All of them posted 89th percentile or higher wOBA marks, and Díaz, Iglesias and Williams generated xwOBA scores in the 95th percentile or higher. Also, one can see why Toronto was interested in Hoffman, given his percentile rankings in K%, K-BB%, wOBA, xwOBA, and Whiff%. Hoffman, although not elite during the 2022-2024 seasons, was particularly good. Now to the most recent season! Table 2 shows some 2025 pitching metrics for the noted pitchers. Except for BB%, Díaz was elite in 2025. His xERA/xwOBA was 99th percentile, as were his K-BB% and Whiff%. Furthermore, Díaz's Barrel/PA% was at the 96th percentile. In other words, his opponents swung and missed at an elevated rate. However, when they connected, those batters barreled the ball at an exceptionally low rate. Iglesias, although not elite like Díaz, was very good in 2025. Other than his barrel rate, Iglesias was much better than the median reliever last season. His xERA/xwOBA, K-BB%, and Whiff% were in the 78th percentile or better. However, he did record a high Barrel%. Suarez has had an interesting journey to MLB. The Venezuelan-born player pitched in Nippon Professional Baseball from 2018 to 2021. He made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2022 in his age-31 season and posted a 3.27 xERA and a 3.22 FIP. Fast forward to 2025, wherein Suarez posted some impressive and some concerning numbers. His wOBA was 96th percentile. However, his xERA/xwOBA was 57th. Also, batters barreled up his pitches at a high rate (Barrel% in the 29th percentile), and they did not swing and miss at a high rate, given his 33rd percentile Whiff%. Williams had a noteworthy 2025 for the Yankees. From a headline perspective, he posted a 4.79 ERA and lost his job as closer. However, under the hood, he performed well last season. Williams generated an xERA/xwOBA in the 80th percentile, and his Whiff%, K% and K-BB% were 94th percentile or better. However, his BB% was high (32nd percentile), and his Barrel/BBE% was 25th percentile. Table 3 has more 2025 numbers to consider. The highlights are as follows: Except for Hoffman, the listed closers posted particularly good to excellent FIP numbers. Of the 144 relievers with at least 50 innings, Díaz's 3.73 WPA was fourth highest, and Suarez’s 3.16 WPA tied for sixth best. For Iglesias, Williams, and Hoffman, their WPA scores ranked 53rd, 105th and 117th, respectively. Regarding Save%, even elite closers (Díaz and Suarez) blow saves. Hoffman, who had some notable blown save opportunities, posted an average Save%. Furthermore, in terms of xwOBA splits by batter handedness, all four closers had better numbers against right-handed hitters than left-handed batters. Still, none had xwOBA stats that exceeded the MLB average when facing left-handed batters. In summary, these free-agent closers are worthy candidates for a role as Toronto’s closer for the 2026 season. Let’s talk contracts! Concerning contract estimates, I will put my calculator aside and rely on MLBTR and FanGraphs. Behold Table 4! The first matter to note is that Díaz is the only closer to receive a qualifying offer from his previous team. Second, Toronto is a competitive balance taxpayer. Accordingly, if the Blue Jays signed Díaz to a contract, they would “lose their second- and fifth-highest selections, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period” (per MLB.com). Another issue to note is that, except for Williams, the MLBTR and FanGraphs contract estimates are similar. Apparently, MLBTR believes the market will look past Williams' high 2025 ERA, demotion from the closer role, and the non-receipt of a qualifying offer. On the other hand, FanGraphs appears to think the market for Williams’ services will be more muted than MLBTR does. A word or two on risk. First, relievers can exhibit significant performance volatility from one season to another due to small sample sizes, injuries, and other factors. For example, in 2022, the relievers in the top three in saves were Emmanuel Clase, Kenley Jansen and Liam Hendriks. After 2022, Clase and Jansen posted xERA figures that were at least 0.87 runs higher than their 2022 marks. Unfortunately, Hendriks pitched only 18 innings after 2022. Also, although it is not a reliever risk per se, Clase is currently under indictment in a gambling scandal that may end his MLB career. Accordingly, projecting a reliever’s future performance level is not an easy task. The second point concerning risk is age. These four free-agent closers are in their 30s. Hence, the impact of aging is an issue. Accordingly, I present Table 5. For information regarding Stuff+ and Pitching+, please take a look at the FanGraphs website. Based on the Pitching+ numbers, unlike Díaz and Iglesias, Williams and Suarez have not displayed a worrying deterioration in their respective pitching process. Lastly, courtesy of Spotrac, a history of recent injuries for the closers: Díaz underwent knee surgery and did not play during the 2023 season. Also, he had a shoulder impingement in 2024 and was on the IL (May 29 to June 13). Atlanta placed Iglesias on the IL in 2023 (March 30 to May 5) with a shoulder strain. In 2022, Suarez had a stint on the IL (June 7 to August 6) with a knee ailment. During the following season, the Padres placed him on the IL (March 30 to July 20) with elbow inflammation. Williams landed on the IL in 2024 (March 28 to July 28) due to stress fractures in his back. The Last Word If I had to sign one of these closers, I would opt for Williams. He is the youngest of the group, his Pitching+ history does not suggest a near-term performance decline, and his 2025 showing was not as poor as his 4.79 ERA suggests. If MLBTR has overstated his market value, there may be a worthwhile opportunity to sign him to a shorter, less expensive deal. Díaz has been elite. However, a four-year, $82 million contract is too rich (and risky) given signs of performance decline (Stuff+ and Pitching+). Also, the loss of draft picks and international pool money is a sizeable additional cost. Iglesias would be a nice add as a set-up reliever, but he does not appear to be a noticeable upgrade over Hoffman. Suarez is tempting, but a three-year deal will take him to his age-37 season, which is very risky. Also, his elevated 2025 xERA gives me pause. If Toronto considers adding a closer for the 2026 season, Díaz, Iglesias, Suarez, and Williams are worthy free agent candidates. There are, of course, other options available to Toronto, including other free agents and the trade market. Let the articles flow! View the full article

“Each year, it’s been a development of pitches, and it’s been what’s allowing me to have the success I’ve been having this past season,” Dalton Rogers told me as he spoke about his time with the Boston Red Sox. The left-hander finished the 2025 season in Double-A Portland, going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA in 18 games with the Sea Dogs. More than anything, he showcased his development with a whopping 101 strikeouts in just 84 1/3 innings. Before making his Double-A debut, the pitcher had spent some time in Greenville, originally getting called up from Salem in 2023. “The pitching coach there, Bob Kipper, was like, 'You’re showing some really good changeups,'” Rogers reminisced about his time in Greenville. Rogers, who was drafted in the third round of the 2022 draft, has experienced quite the road to professional baseball as he lost his first season of college ball due to injury. He also changed his style of pitching once he got into professional baseball; Rogers was mainly a fastball pitcher in college, but has since undergone a drastic change in his pitch usage upon joining the Red Sox organization. “In college I was 80% fastball,” Rogers explained. “Obviously, being in pro ball, you can’t throw fastballs every time.” His changeup is viewed by members of the organization as possessing great potential, partly due to his similar arm release height and extension between his fastball and the off-speed offering. He spent his first full season focusing on developing his changeup, and upon entering his second full season in the pros, the focus shifted to a new pitch to compliment the two in his arsenal. “We worked on a slider. To help compliment a changeup that goes arm side and a fastball that carries, a slider that goes glove side [is key],” Rogers said, discussing his three main pitches. A key takeaway as mentioned by Rogers is that he now had three quadrants of the zone covered thanks his primary offerings. While working on them, he also began to improve a curveball that he had previously used. The pitch becoming more of a focus in 2025 as he continued to improve his three main ones. Rogers' development has not been with an eye on relief. Having pitched out of the bullpen his final season in college, Rogers saw a return to the rotation in his first season with the Red Sox. Across his first two full seasons, he appeared in 44 games making 42 starts. The 2025 campaign saw that plan change slightly, especially while with Greenville. To open the season Rogers appeared in five games at High-A, starting just one. “The Red Sox incorporated a piggyback. It allowed guys to have set days. Instead of a five-man rotation, you could have an eight-man with two starters throwing together,” Rogers explained. “How we do it is, we have pitch counts. To start the year, we were at about 60 pitches, and so Payton Tolle would start and I would come in behind him, We would have communications. He’s at about 50 pitches, I would get ready. I would treat it like I was starting. His last inning was my pre-game bullpen.” With the offseason in full swing now, Rogers is preparing for 2026 after taking some time off from having his wisdom teeth removed. The left-handed pitcher will look to continue his great pitching from 2025 into next year, where it is likely that he'll make it to Triple-A Worcester at some point. Taking everything that he’s worked on since being drafted, Rogers continues to put the pieces together as one of the most intriguing pitching prospects in the farm system. View the full article

On Thursday in fall/winter ball, Fenwick Trimble went 0-for-3 with a walk. Jack Sellinger pitched two scoreless innings. Holt Jones allowed a walk-off single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Mesa Solar Sox lost, 4-3, and were eliminated from the Arizona Fall League playoffs. I'll have a detailed summary this weekend of how all Miami Marlins players fared in the AFL. Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 0-for-3 with a walk. Only 132 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 I detailed why Joe Mack is a lock and Josh White is a near-lock to be selected to Miami's 40-roster on Tuesday. 🔷 Thursday was the first day of the inaugural MLB Open, a golf tournament featuring pairs of current/former players representing each franchise. Jakob Marsee and Gary Sheffield are competing on the Marlins' behalf. The tournament concludes today. 🔷 For the second straight year, members of the latest Marlins MLB Draft class have traveled to the Dominican Republic to take part in a first-year player camp where they will train alongside the organization's Latin American players. 🔷 Just Baseball's updated Top 100 prospects list includes Thomas White (18th), Joe Mack (26th), Robby Snelling (30th) and Aiva Arquette (55th). White is now universally ranked among MLB's top 25 prospects, becoming the first Marlin since Eury Pérez to be so highly regarded. 🔷 Continuing their series of World Baseball Classic-inspired national team rosters, Son Los Marlins constructed the best possible Dominican and Puerto Rican teams comprised of former Fish. Finding adequate pitching with PR roots proved difficult. 🔷 Congratulations to former Marlins radio broadcaster Glenn Geffner, who will be teaching at the University of Florida during the Spring 2026 semester (h/t Isaac Edelman). After several years as an adjunct professor at Florida Atlantic University, Geffner is bringing his experience to UF for a course on sports play-by-play. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Aaron Judge (AL) and Shohei Ohtani (NL) won their respective league's MVP awards. Tarik Skubal (AL) and Paul Skenes (NL) won their respective league's Cy Young awards. Nick Kurtz (AL) and Drake Baldwin (NL) won their respective league's Rookie of the Year awards. Stephen Vogt (AL) and Pat Murphy (NL) won their respective league's Manager of the Year awards. Cal Raleigh, Corbin Carroll and Pete Crow-Armstrong were all announced as members of Team USA for the 2026 WBC. San Diego Padres ownership announced that they are exploring a potential sale of the franchise. View the full article

On Thursday night, the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale announced that the Minnesota Twins will be hiring their third lead hitting coach in the past three seasons. Keith Beauregard, who has been with the Detroit Tigers hitting coach staff the past four seasons, will head to the Twins. Beauregard has been with the Tigers since 2022, but it was announced that he decided not to return to Motown for the 2026 season. He worked with the likes of All-Star Riley Greene and Matt Carpenter. He oversaw the turn around seasons of Javy Baez and Spencer Torkelson. He worked with James Rowson on the Tigers 2023 staff. Matt Borgschulte returned to the Twins organization to become their lead hitting coach in 2024. He will not be returning to the Twins for 2025. "Borgs" replaced David Popkins who was the team's lead hitting coach in 2022 and 2023. Shortly after the Twins let him go last offseason, he was hired by the Blue Jays and led the best offense in the league to the World Series. Nightengale also noted that Trevor Amicone and Rayden Sierra will return as the team's assistant coaches in 2026. Catching up on the Twins coaching situation: Manager: Derek Shelton (replaces Rocco Baldelli) Bench Coach: Open (replacing Jayce Tinger) Asst Bench Coach: Open: (replacing Hank Conger) Pitching Coach: Pete Maki (returns) Asst Pitching Coach: Luis Ramirez (returns) Bullpen Coach: LaTroy Hawkins (replaces Colby Suggs, who is with the Rangers now) Hitting Coach: Keith Beauregard (replaces Matt Borgschulte) Asst Hitting Coach: Trevor Amicone (returns) Asst Hitting Coach: Rayden Sierra (returns) 1B Coach/Outfield/Baserunner: Grady Sizemore (replacing Tommy Watkins, now with the Braves) 3B Coach/Infield Coach: Ramon Borrego (shift from 1B coach to 3B coach) Quality Control Coach: Open (replacing Nate Dahmann) View the full article

On Thursday afternoon, Will Sammon, a senior MLB writer at The Athletic, reported that Kris Bubic is generating trade interest from multiple teams, according to sources. He broke the report on social media. Bubic made his MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, despite not pitching above High-A ball. After posting a 4.32 ERA in 50 IP in 2020 and a 4.43 ERA in 130 IP in 2021, he struggled in 2022. In manager Mike Matheny's final season in Kansas City, he went 3-13 and posted a 5.58 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 129 IP, all career-worsts. The former Stanford product only pitched three games in 2023 due to an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. However, he returned to the mound in 2024 as a reliever and absolutely thrived as a late-inning reliever for a Royals team that went 86-76 and made it to the ALDS. In 30.1 IP, he posted a 2.67 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a K rate of 32.2%. The Royals moved Bubic back to the rotation in 2025, and he looked phenomenal at first. In 18 games before the All-Star Break, he posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and struck out 113 batters and only walked 34 in 108.2 IP. That performance helped him earn his first All-Star appearance. However, Bubic didn't look the same after the All-Star Break, as he posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in two starts and 7.2 IP. He actually had more walks (five) than strikeouts (three). The Royals had him checked out, and it was revealed that he had a left rotator cuff strain. As a result, Kansas City shut him down for the remainder of the season. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Bubic has been cleared to resume throwing, a good sign that he will be ready for Spring Training. Thus, it makes sense why many teams would be interested in Bubic, as he seemed to be an AL Cy Young candidate last year before being shut down for the remainder of the season due to injury. The Royals have Bubic under team control for one more year, but his projected arbitration salary will be high at $6 million, and he will be a free agent after next season. In an interview with John Bonnes of Diamondcentric yesterday at the MLB GM meetings, JJ Picollo mentioned Bubic as an extension candidate. Still, he didn't share any details on that progress (or if it was on the horizon). Kansas City may be able to trade Bubic to a team that is more willing to sign him to an extension after acquiring him, despite his injury history. Jon Morosi of MLB Network recently reported that the Royals are interested in acquiring an outfielder via trade this offseason. Thus, trading Bubic could help them achieve that goal. Jarren Duran has been floated as a trade target for the Royals, but it's hard to tell what kind of return he would require. If the Royals pursue that path, it likely will include Bubic as a starting point, at a minimum. Photo Credit: © Denny Medley-Imagn Images View the full article

Ryan Jeffers has one last season of arbitration left with the Twins, making him a likely trade candidate this offseason. While he'll be in trade talks, the Twins have a greater need to keep him around for any decent chance to win next season. View the full article

Call it counterintuitive, but even though it will cost more to sign Brandon Woodruff if he turns down the qualifying offer from the Brewers by Tuesday, it would feel more worthwhile to do so. The big question around Woodruff isn't his talent level; it's about health and durability. When he's on the mound, Woodruff is likely to be a solidly mid-rotation starter, with upside from there. Unfortunately, given the way his last three seasons have gone, it's hard to count on him being on the mound very often. If he has the confidence to turn down $22.025 million on a one-year deal, it's a signal that his shoulder is essentially intact, for now. However, if he does turn down that contract, Milwaukee is more likely to move on than to re-engage with him. As much as the whole franchise loves Woodruff, they have lots of upside in their projected 2026 rotation as it is. What they need is volume—the very reliability that is the missing ingredient for the veteran righthander. Besides, if they let Woodruff depart after he turns down this offer, they reap a draft pick to deepen their 2026 class, which would make it easier for them to retain Freddy Peralta. If they re-sign him, the price tag is likely to increase the pressure to trade Peralta, and they'll need to find another way to improve their depth on the farm. Letting Woodruff depart would leave an open spot in the rotation, but it would also mean considerable flexibility with which to fill it. The Brewers are never going to wade into the market for the top-end starting pitchers in free agency, but this year, there's a fairly robust second and third tier of them. In particular, two right-handed starters who will be available without the loss of draft compensation stand out as viable options. Merrill Kelly After being traded from the Diamondbacks to the Rangers in July, Kelly hits the market as he heads toward his age-37 season. Despite getting old, though, he's been one of the league's sturdier workhorses for the last half-decade—nearly always taking the ball, often working relatively deep in games, and consistently pitching better than an average starter. Though he only has one plus weapon, in his changeup, Kelly has a kitchen-sink repertoire and uses all three fastball varieties. He's a rich man's Colin Rea, and while Rea departed for the Cubs last winter, he's still very much the style of pitcher the Brewers like for the middle of their rotation. Projections for Kelly's next contract are considerably higher than what the Cubs paid Rea, or what they will pay him in 2026. He's expected to make north of $30 million on a two-year deal. Because his age will keep the term of the contract short, however, he could be in the Crew's price range. Nick Martinez Whereas Kelly is coming off a strong season, Martinez hits the market after taking the qualifying offer from the Reds last fall—and probably wishing he hadn't. Though his stuff remained essentially intact, Martinez's strikeout rate against righties declined sharply, and with that went some of his effectiveness. The Reds leaned on him to start more than he had the previous few years, and it seemed to stretch him too thin. Martinez won't make what Kelly will this winter. He's in line for something closer to $22 million over two years, making him reasonably priced. The key question for him will be whether he can get back to the clever sequencing and great command that made him so good from 2022 through 2024. As with Kelly, the only truly plus pitch Martinez throws is his changeup, but his arsenal is deep and balanced. The last time Martinez spent time on the injured list in the majors was 2017. He's been a swingman, rather than a full-fledged starter, but like Kelly, he provides ample value by being available when needed. If Woodruff takes the qualifying offer, the Brewers' winter pitching plans will have to be low-cost and low-wattage. If he doesn't, though, they'll have significant money to spend—and several ways to go about doing it. View the full article

There has been one instance of Derek Falvey trading a veteran for prospect(s) over the offseason. Just one. Can you think of it? It was Gio Urshela, after 2022. Urshela was traded to the Angels for 19-year-old pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo, just hours before the non-tender deadline. This move suggests a high likelihood that Urshela would have been released, rather than the Twins paying him an estimated $8 million via arbitration. The trade was more about finding value than about getting worse in the present for future rewards. Falvey’s avoidance of selling present value for future value communicates an intention not to spend any year in a state of non-competitiveness. Sure, the team has gone through periods of non-competitiveness, but it’s never seemed to be part of an intentional plan. There hasn’t been a single offseason that has seemed like throwing in the towel on the following year. There have been trades of established players. But—except Urshela—they have all brought back big-league talent. There have been minor moves, like 2024’s trade of Nick Gordon for Steven Okert or 2021’s much-ballyhooed LaMonte Wade Jr.-for-Shaun Anderson swap, but most of the Twins’ most significant offseason moves have been these challenge trades, trading MLB talent for MLB talent. The Twins wanted to sell Josh Donaldson ahead of 2022, but instead of prospects, they received Urshela and Gary Sánchez, and they included Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ben Rortvedt to facilitate the trade. Jorge Polanco was traded for prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen, but the Twins also received Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani in the deal, filling holes on the big-league roster—you know, in theory. In both the Donaldson and Polanco trades, the primary motivation was to move salary, but the Twins used the trades to solve existing problems with their plans to contend immediately. Urshela took Donaldson’s spot, and Sánchez filled a backup catcher role after Mitch Garver was traded for Kiner-Falefa and prospect Ronny Henríquez, for example. The money was quickly reinvested. Carlos Correa signed shortly after the Donaldson trade, and within a week, the money saved in the Polanco trade was allocated to Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. Even if Urshela was seen as a worse third baseman than Donaldson, the moves served a purpose: to build the team in the short-term and (often) in the long term. As a perfect example of this, the trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami netted Pablo López, Jose Salas, and Byron Chourio. The Twins dealt from a perceived surplus of lefty corner bats for a badly-needed frontline starter, and they stocked the farm a bit in the process. Ahead of 2022, it was clear that they were ready to move on from Taylor Rogers, but instead of prospects, they brought in two experienced pitchers with more team control, in Emilio Pagán and Chris Paddack. Perceptions of the quality of these trades run the gamut, but it’s clear that the intent has never been to outright cut back on talent in the hopes that the trade would bear fruit three years later. Beyond trades, the Twins have tried to shop each offseason in free agency, sometimes getting creative (like ahead of 2024), sometimes biding their time and hoping talent falls through the cracks (like ahead of 2018, 2021, or 2025). The late signings of Addison Reed, Logan Morrison, and Lance Lynn before 2018 didn’t work, but they still trudged on, adding Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, and (late in the offseason), Marwin Gonzalez ahead of 2019. Even after a disastrous 2021, in an offseason in which they dumped the biggest free-agent contract the organization had ever signed, they still added Correa, because they weren’t throwing in the towel on 2022. I’m not sure that it’s the right tactic. At some point, a team has to cut its losses and stop taking half-measures. The reluctance to sell a player without getting commensurate MLB talent may have kept players around longer than they should have been with the Twins (Max Kepler, maybe?). But the Central has been open for the entirety of Falvey’s tenure—at least to win enough games to catch a Wild Card berth. If nothing else, it’s a noble pursuit. And if, as fans worry, the next step of the process begun on July 31, 2025 is to further hack away at this roster, Falvey will be in uncharted territory. We’ve never seen this team jpack it in ahead of the season. There’s no history to base it on or use as speculation. Falvey has been insistent that he still does not intend to rebuild, and that he does not intend to continue to sell. He's told the media that he wants to add to his group, not subtract, which is in line with his behavior in previous offseasons. Whether you believe him is up to you. View the full article

In episode 101 of Destination: The Show, Jeremy and Jamie discuss rumors that Byron Buxton would be willing to waive his no trade clause if the Twins continue their tear down. They go on to discuss Derek Shelton’s emerging MLB staff, talking through the focus on adding MLB experience. The guys then walk through the futures of the established big league starting pitchers still on the Twins roster. Do the Twins trade away any combination of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober prior to 2026? 0:00 Intro/Housekeeping 1:30 Byron Buxton not a Twin for life? 8:55 Derek Shelton's Staff 21:36 Off-season roster decisions 49:25 News and Notes You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View the full article

The Blue Jays coaching staff has already seen some changes this offseason. Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports that Blue Jays assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense is leaving the team and will be joining the San Francisco Giants as their hitting coach. Mense had been with the Blue Jays since the 2022 season. Working with hitting coach David Popkins and fellow assistant coach Lou Iannotti, Mense coached the Blue Jays to a .330 wOBA in 2025, the third highest in baseball. In San Francisco, Mense will reunite with the Giants' new manager Tony Vitello, whom Mense previously played for at the University of Missouri. For the Blue Jays, this marks the second departure from the big league staff, as bench coach Don Mattingly stepped away from the team earlier this month. Featured image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images. View the full article

When a pitcher like Dylan Cease hits free agency, the real headache for his old team is figuring out how to fill that gap. The San Diego Padres’ main problem this winter isn’t Cease leaving; it’s that his unique skills, like missing bats and handling a solid workload, come with a hefty price tag. They don’t have anyone with a similar skill set coming up in their system, and the market has already set high prices for that type of talent. This limits how they can build their rotation for 2026 and the years after. The Dylan Cease Equation: Durability + Swing-and-Miss = Market Scarcity Cease's free-agent profile is a product of years of trends: teams now prefer to pay for inputs (like strikeout rates, pitch quality, and command) instead of outputs (like ERA and win totals). Following this reasoning, the right-hander's 2025 campaign does not cut his worth down, even though the lesser results do make him more of a risk to sign. No MLB starter has made more starts (174) since 2020 than Cease. He has had 200 strikeouts in five consecutive seasons, where he also was the league leader with the highest strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) this year. Even when his performance was inconsistent, his whiff rate on the slider and four-seam fastball were both well above average and both around the top quartile of MLB starters. He's got a lot of avenues to strike hitters out, and in today’s pitching economy, that’s a very safe investment. It is not his ERA that teams will buy. They'll pursue him because he gets rid of contact at a higher rate than nearly anyone in baseball and because he makes 32 starts every year without fail. You cannot find that internally unless you have drafted and developed a similar archetype, and the Padres haven’t done that. The Padres’ Structural Disadvantage The team has greatly reduced its payroll compared to the 2023-2024 levels, falling below the competitive balance tax. However, the rotation turnover created by Yu Darvish's surgery, Cease and Michael King's free agency, and the doubt about the organization's depth has left them with fewer arms to left cover innings in 2026. A team can’t replace 180 his innings with 180 innings from mid-tier arms and expect the same run prevention or strikeout leverage. Strikeout-heavy innings protect a defense, mitigate sequencing luck, and suppress contact quality. If the Padres opt for the route of signing several less expensive pitchers (think of second-tier pitchers who are good at getting weak contact) to take over Cease's innings, the club's run-prevention model will be entirely different. It might be the case that the total cost will be the same in a dollar sense, but the variance control will be lower and the performance delivered will also be lesser. It is easy to plan around 200 strikeouts per year; it's much harder to build around 170 innings of contact management. Why They’ll Pay Full Retail MLBTradeRumors projects Cease's next contract come in at seven years, worth $189 million; The Athletic’s Tim Britton slots him at six years for $174M. Adjusting for inflation and market scarcity, the difference is semantic—either number prices him as a top-10 pitcher by annual average value. That’s simply the going rate for a starter with elite “stuff” metrics (velocity, spin. whiff rate, etc.) and consistent availability. Front offices now align those data traits closely with future value and injury mitigation. If a team really wants to utilize a certain player’s talents, they will have to pay his market value, which could mean either signing him again or getting someone who is almost the same. The Padres can’t do anything to the established system unless they produce pitchers with similar characteristics through their own pipeline. However, at this moment in time, they do not have a pipeline like that. Lacking a developmental counterpart, they are confronted with nothing but a scarcity tax. It is through external acquisition that they get those skills, and every other team that bids will encounter the same lack. Even a “lower-tier” acquisition such as Aaron Civale or Jordan Montgomery is no longer inexpensive, as the demand for swing-and-miss profiles has increased along with the preference for stable workloads. Without elite infield defense or extreme run suppression on balls in play, the Padres can’t afford to lose strikeouts at scale. As such, the Padres’ decision tree looks straightforward but unforgiving. Either they: - Re-sign Cease and accept the payroll implications; - Buy a similar skillset elsewhere, likely at equivalent or higher cost; or - Degrade the rotation model, accepting lower strikeout density and higher performance volatility. None of these routes yield surplus value. The third might save dollars but risks undercutting the club’s run-prevention architecture. In effect, the team's best path forward is likely to foot the bill on a massive contract for Cease. It'll make future conversations uncomfortable, but for the sake of this competitive window, the Padres really don't have any other choice. View the full article

When a pitcher like Dylan Cease hits free agency, the real headache for his old team is figuring out how to fill that gap. The San Diego Padres’ main problem this winter isn’t Cease leaving; it’s that his unique skills, like missing bats and handling a solid workload, come with a hefty price tag. They don’t have anyone with a similar skill set coming up in their system, and the market has already set high prices for that type of talent. This limits how they can build their rotation for 2026 and the years after. The Dylan Cease Equation: Durability + Swing-and-Miss = Market Scarcity Cease's free-agent profile is a product of years of trends: teams now prefer to pay for inputs (like strikeout rates, pitch quality, and command) instead of outputs (like ERA and win totals). Following this reasoning, the right-hander's 2025 campaign does not cut his worth down, even though the lesser results do make him more of a risk to sign. No MLB starter has made more starts (174) since 2020 than Cease. He has had 200 strikeouts in five consecutive seasons, where he also was the league leader with the highest strikeouts per nine innings (11.5) this year. Even when his performance was inconsistent, his whiff rate on the slider and four-seam fastball were both well above average and both around the top quartile of MLB starters. He's got a lot of avenues to strike hitters out, and in today’s pitching economy, that’s a very safe investment. It is not his ERA that teams will buy. They'll pursue him because he gets rid of contact at a higher rate than nearly anyone in baseball and because he makes 32 starts every year without fail. You cannot find that internally unless you have drafted and developed a similar archetype, and the Padres haven’t done that. The Padres’ Structural Disadvantage The team has greatly reduced its payroll compared to the 2023-2024 levels, falling below the competitive balance tax. However, the rotation turnover created by Yu Darvish's surgery, Cease and Michael King's free agency, and the doubt about the organization's depth has left them with fewer arms to left cover innings in 2026. A team can’t replace 180 his innings with 180 innings from mid-tier arms and expect the same run prevention or strikeout leverage. Strikeout-heavy innings protect a defense, mitigate sequencing luck, and suppress contact quality. If the Padres opt for the route of signing several less expensive pitchers (think of second-tier pitchers who are good at getting weak contact) to take over Cease's innings, the club's run-prevention model will be entirely different. It might be the case that the total cost will be the same in a dollar sense, but the variance control will be lower and the performance delivered will also be lesser. It is easy to plan around 200 strikeouts per year; it's much harder to build around 170 innings of contact management. Why They’ll Pay Full Retail MLBTradeRumors projects Cease's next contract come in at seven years, worth $189 million; The Athletic’s Tim Britton slots him at six years for $174M. Adjusting for inflation and market scarcity, the difference is semantic—either number prices him as a top-10 pitcher by annual average value. That’s simply the going rate for a starter with elite “stuff” metrics (velocity, spin. whiff rate, etc.) and consistent availability. Front offices now align those data traits closely with future value and injury mitigation. If a team really wants to utilize a certain player’s talents, they will have to pay his market value, which could mean either signing him again or getting someone who is almost the same. The Padres can’t do anything to the established system unless they produce pitchers with similar characteristics through their own pipeline. However, at this moment in time, they do not have a pipeline like that. Lacking a developmental counterpart, they are confronted with nothing but a scarcity tax. It is through external acquisition that they get those skills, and every other team that bids will encounter the same lack. Even a “lower-tier” acquisition such as Aaron Civale or Jordan Montgomery is no longer inexpensive, as the demand for swing-and-miss profiles has increased along with the preference for stable workloads. Without elite infield defense or extreme run suppression on balls in play, the Padres can’t afford to lose strikeouts at scale. As such, the Padres’ decision tree looks straightforward but unforgiving. Either they: - Re-sign Cease and accept the payroll implications; - Buy a similar skillset elsewhere, likely at equivalent or higher cost; or - Degrade the rotation model, accepting lower strikeout density and higher performance volatility. None of these routes yield surplus value. The third might save dollars but risks undercutting the club’s run-prevention architecture. In effect, the team's best path forward is likely to foot the bill on a massive contract for Cease. It'll make future conversations uncomfortable, but for the sake of this competitive window, the Padres really don't have any other choice. View the full article

The San Diego Padres lacked power production this past season. They ranked 18th in the league in RBIs (663) and 28th in home runs (152). Only six players hit more than 10 home runs: Manny Machado (27), Fernando Tatis Jr. (25), Gavin Sheets (19), Jackson Merrill (16), Jake Cronenworth (11), and Xander Bogaerts (11). These numbers fall well short compared to their NL West counterparts who won the World Series; the Los Angeles Dodgers finished second in home runs (244). To compete for a World Series title next year, the Padres must add power to their lineup. The Padres face a budget limitation of $52 million in Competitive Balance Tax Space, so they must remain selective, as they have several needs to address. They could pursue a cheap power bat who would give them the needed boost and allow them to pursue other top-tier talent. Likewise, the Padres benefit from not requiring a starter; they can target a bench bat who could serve as a platoon or DH option for rookie manager Craig Stammen. Let's analyze three players who fit this archetype and what they could bring to San Diego next season. *All contract predictions are based on NBC Sports' Free Agent Rankings Rhys Hoskins Hoskins has reliably produced over his eight-year MLB career, excluding the 2023 season that he missed due to a torn ACL. He owns a career .820 OPS and 121 wRC+, but striking out remains an issue. Last season, he posted a 27 percent strikeout rate, slightly higher than his 25 percent career average. Staying healthy has recently become another problem, as he has played more than 110 games in only four seasons. However, in each of those four seasons, he hit more than 25 home runs. When healthy, he consistently demonstrates power at the plate. As a right-handed bat, Hoskins could platoon at first base with Sheets, since Ryan O'Hearn became a free agent. Sheets struggles against left-handed pitchers over his career, and though he improved his OPS against lefties to .669 in 2025, significantly above his career average of .557, he's still a below-average contributor in those situations. With an estimated one-year price tag of $5 million, Hoskins looks like an ideal addition for the Padres. Mike Yastrzemski Yastrzemski spent seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants before being traded to the Kansas City Royals this past trade deadline. His price tag is estimated to be a one-year deal worth around $11 million. This past season, Yastrzemski hit 17 home runs and drove in 68 runs over 558 plate appearances. He had trouble striking out over his career, with a strikeout rate of at least 24 percent in each of his first six seasons, but in 2025, he reduced that to 19 percent. The 35-year-old offers a left-handed bat off the bench who can occasionally play in the outfield. Yastrzemski could platoon with Ramón Laureano, who had a breakthrough offensive campaign in 2025. He had an .812 OPS and a 127 wRC+ after being acquired at the trade deadline with the Baltimore Orioles. However, he's had up-and-down results against right-handed pitchers; overall, in his career, he has a .747 OPS in 1,979 plate appearances against righties. Yastrzemski, meanwhile, posted an .809 OPS and 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. As someone who can reliably fill in at all three outfield positions, he'd make a lot of sense as a fourth outfielder. Max Kepler Kepler stands out as another experienced outfielder who can platoon in left field with Laureano next season. In Kepler's 11-year career, he has produced roughly average overall results, but in seven different seasons, he has recorded more than 17 home runs. He hit 18 home runs last season and collected 90 hits in 474 plate appearances. That lack of overall production leads to an estimated $6 million price tag for a one-year deal. Kepler has alternated between single-digit and 17 or more home runs over his last six seasons—that trend is not ideal for a team that needs power production, but with the Padres facing budget restraints, Kepler's $6 million price tag appears enticing. It would allow them to spend on a higher-tier starting pitcher, especially with the latest news that Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season. View the full article

Following the Twins' introductory presser with Derek Shelton, media members held a scrum with Derek Falvey on what's ahead on their offseason agenda. Theo was a part of the scrum, and from what he heard from Falvey, it doesn't sound like much will be changing from the last two offseasons. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs ended their 2025 campaign with a game started by Drew Pomeranz. There was a time (before the Covid-19 pandemic) when that sentence wouldn't have seemed crazy, but that was also the last time that it wouldn't have. Since then, Pomeranz has transitioned from a starting pitcher to strictly a two-pitch reliever. Shota Imanaga, who was on regular rest, spent the entire game in the bullpen. There are many reasons the Cubs didn’t win the World Series in 2025, but their loss in Game 5 was truly a microcosm of what was wrong with the roster. They were one pitcher short, relying too much on a bullpen to hide the deficiencies of their rotation.. Jed Hoyer, in his end-of-year press conference, essentially admitted as much, speaking of how difficult it was for the team to make the additions they wished they could at the deadline. This will have change as the team looks to build on their 92-win season in 2026. Luckily for the Cubs, there are many options on the market. If they would like to attack the free-agent class, top-line arms such as Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez are all available to be signed while surrendering draft-pick compensation. If they don't love any of these options, they could look to the trade market, hoping that the prices on Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore or Edward Cabrera have come down. Instead, though, the Cubs may look to a place they have looked multiple times in the last few seasons: across the Pacific Ocean, to Japan. Enter: Tatsuya Imai, a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher from Japan's top flight, Nippon Professional Baseball. Imai's club, the Seibu Lions, have confirmed their intentions to allow the pitcher to come to America this offseason. His agent, Scott Boras, said Wednesday that the hurler will officially be posted on November 19, which is next Wednesday. Imai is likely to have plenty of suitors, and his contract is expected to rival those in the top tier of free agency, with The Athletic predicting he will earn north of $140 million. The Cubs have not been a team we associate with big-time free-agent contracts in recent years, but I think the righty may be the type of player the Cubs will be willing to break the bank on. To understand why the Cubs may target Imai, we need to first understand what the Cubs rotation lacks: strikeouts. In terms of ERA, the Cubs finished in the top 10, but they were 23rd in strikeout rate. Chicago’s defense is excellent, but adding more swing-and-miss would give the team’s run prevention a needed boost, and the Japanese star would certainly do that. He struck out 27.8% of all hitters and over 31% of righties in 2025. Ben Brown is the only Cub who made more than five starts with the team and struck out even 25% of opposing hitters. There is a caveat. Imai's fastball isn't going to be nearly as special in terms of velocity when he comes over. However, I don't think this will scare off the Cubs. To put it in context, in NPB, Imai had the second-fastest fastball in the league, clocking in around the 95-mph mark and touching 99 on occasion. When he comes over, though, his fastball will be around average for a right-handed starter in Major League Baseball, which was 94.6 mph last year. The good news for Imai is that his arm angle is funky, which should allow him to create deception. While NPB does not make arm angle public on their tracking site, it's likely that his angle will put him around the flattest in baseball. Compare the above video of Imai to the below video of Seattle Mariners' starter Bryan Woo. Woo clocks in around a 23° arm angle, the 12th-flattest of any starter in 2025. I expect Imai to be in that range. Uk8yeU5fWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFVSFZGUUhYd2NBWEFSVUFBQUhBVkFFQUZrRFUxa0FVRlVNVWxJRlV3b0RVVkZR.mp4 While I hesitate to compare the two directly in terms of fastball value, Woo's fastball sat at 95.6 mph last year. And while the shape of Woo's fastball is good, grading out on FanGraphs's Stuff+ as a 105, on shape and velocity alone, it falls short of elite. Despite that, Woo's fastball performs among the best in the league. It's pretty well-known that the Cubs, who threw the most four-seam fastballs of any team in 2025, value the pitch highly. While we shouldn’t expect Imai to duplicate Woo’s success with the four-seam fastball, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs attempt to use Woo as a template for what can be done. The Cubs have managed to squeeze extra velocity out of a few arms in their system over the years, and when you add year two of Tyler Zombro and everything Tread Athletics can do, it gives the Cubs a strong foundation to help get the most out of him. Imai may never dominate on velocity alone, but I think there’s potential for the pitch with a good fastball organization, like the Cubs. Imai’s most unique offering is his "slider". I'm going to be careful what I call it, though. It's not really a slider, at least in the traditional sense, because Imai throws his with arm-side run. This effectively makes it a “reverse” breaking ball, or screwball, running toward a right-handed batter instead of away from them (as most righties’ sliders do). I suspect that Stuff+ models will hate the pitch, but the results in Japan were stunning. The slider generated a 45.9% swing-and-miss rate, which would have placed it in the top 10 in whiff rate in MLB. It's fair to wonder how the pitch will play against American big-league hitters due to its unique nature, but if there's one thing I'm confident about, it’s that the Cubs aren't afraid of a funky pitch. Due to his slider-fastball combination, Imai has been absolutely deadly against right handed hitters. On the surface, this makes sense; both of these pitches play up against like-handed hitters before we factor in the funk factor of his delivery or slider profile. Beyond that, it would appear as though he added a sinker to his repertoire late in the season—yet another pitch that will help him navigate the best righty batters in the world. It’s great to have all of these offerings, but there’s a drawback; none of these pitches are great against left-handed hitters, and this has been a general Achilles heel for him over his career in NPB. One of the hallmarks of the Cubs pitching staff in 2025 was their on-the-fly development of changeups, a pitch often used to attack opposite-handed hitters. Both Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon, who badly needed an extra offering, developed very strong kick-changes before or during the 2025 season. It wouldn't appear as though Imai would be a direct candidate for the kick-change like the other two, as he tends to be more of a pronator to begin with. (The kick-change, which involves using the placement of the middle finger to "kick" the spin axis sideways as the ball comes off the fingers, has usually been a tool employed by pitchers who tend to supinate and specialize in glove-side movement.) Despite that, an organization who can continue to get the best ot his changeup is likely the organization willing to spend big on the pitcher to begin with. Before 2025, Imai had terrible walk issues with lefties, specifically, walking 11% of them in 2024. He developed a better changeup in 2025, which dropped his walk rate against lefties to 8.5% and allowed him to make major strides in terms of run prevention against them. The Cubs, an organization that excels at teaching the changeup, would continue to work with the pitcher to solve this issue. It's likely that this isn't entirely behind him, as the step up in competition will push him to his limits. I don't think that the overall package that Imai has today puts him in the same tier as Yoshinobu Yamamoto was when he came over from NPB two offseasons ago; I don't think anyone does. Even the priciest predictions have Imai making around half of the $325 million that Yamamoto got from the Dodgers. But he's also a clear step above what Shota Imanaga was when the Cubs signed him, and he's proven capable of being somewhere between a second starter and a fourth-best option. I wouldn't expect Imai to headline a rotation, but I do think there's more than enough clay to mold a front-line option. There are probably going to be some tweaks. Imai's fastball location leaves something to be desired; the changeup is just starting out and likely needs refinement; and it will take a good organization to best use Imai's funky reverse slider. Still, I think he fits into how the Cubs view pitchers. They love four-seam fastballs, lower arm slots, changeups and funk. Imai fits Chicago in other ways, too. The Cubs have been active in scouting Japanese players under Hoyer. They have signed both Seiya Suzuki and Imanaga. They have been major players, regardless of outcome, when it comes to Shohei Ohtani and Roki Sasaki. They have even reportedly offered a contract to 22-year-old, undrafted NPB outfielder Kotaru Tsunematsu (though we are unsure if he's accepted as of writing this article, and he seems as likely to become a force in their front office someday as to blossom on the field). He's also the right age for this kind of investment. Pitchers rarely hit the market at the age of 27. While the Cubs have shied away from big contracts, their two biggest signings of the last decade were offered to 26-year-old Jason Heyward and 29-year-old Dansby Swanson. Pitchers are aging better than hitters lately, too. Will Imai end up in Chicago? It’s no sure thing. The New York Mets are interested, and have recently signed Kodai Senga. The New York Yankees are always a premium destination and are looking for pitchers. There will be plenty of competition. But I also feel like this is a unique situation in which the pitcher's style aligns with much of what the Cubs like. Coming over from Japan, there is no draft-pick compensation attached, which is likely a factor for the Cubs. Taking all these factors in conjunction, I think the Cubs are going to put him very high on their offseason list. If the Cubs are going to spend $150 million on a player, Imai is probably the type they are willing to look at. View the full article