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If Minnesota Twins fans feel like they've heard this story before, it is because they have. Nearly 30 years separate the current financial messaging from the late 1990s, but the current posture from ownership feels almost identical. The numbers have grown, the league has changed, and revenues have exploded, but the Pohlad family continues to rely on the same explanations and expectations. In December 1998, Jim Pohlad and Twins president Jerry Bell attempted to justify a dramatic rollback in spending by saying, “We’re open to suggestions.” Those suggestions came alongside the revelation that the Twins would operate on a payroll as low as $10 million for the 1999 season, easily the lowest in Major League Baseball. The Pohlads claimed losses of up to $60 million over the prior five seasons, despite the team carrying a $27-million payroll in 1998. At that time, 10 individual MLB players were earning higher average salaries than the Twins' entire roster. To be fair, ownership did have a tangible grievance in that era. The Metrodome lease was widely viewed as one of the worst stadium deals in baseball. Revenue streams were limited, premium seating was minimal, and the Twins had little control over key income sources. That poor stadium arrangement was often cited as a primary reason for the team’s financial struggles, and it was not without merit. The economics of baseball in the 1990s were far different, and Minnesota was genuinely operating at a disadvantage compared to teams with modern facilities. That context, however, came with a darker edge. The Pohlad family did not simply plead poverty. They openly flirted with contraction. The Twins were repeatedly floated as a candidate for elimination, a threat that hung over the fan base and the state. It was leverage then, just as financial distress often feels like leverage now. It might well be that the intention to contract was never real, but the elaborate charade the team and league undertook was proof of their commitment to extracting money and power from the community. The baseball operations side of the organization leaned into the same logic. Then-general manager Terry Ryan attempted to normalize the payroll gap. “After this season, everyone could see that the teams that were paying $40 million weren’t doing any better than the teams paying $15 million," he said. "Right now, if you’re at $60 million, you might as well be at $20 million.” It was a convenient argument, at the dawn of an era that would soon prove spending absolutely mattered. Fast-forward nearly three decades, and the justifications sound hauntingly familiar. The Twins reportedly accumulated more than $500 million in debt (much of it, whether the family cares to admit it or not, freighted onto the Twins as the Pohlads' commercial real estate investments took huge post-COVID hits) and were put up for sale in late 2024. When a full sale failed to materialize, the team was pulled off the market, and minority shares were sold to multiple investment groups to stabilize finances. Once again, the Pohlad family has suggested that operating the team itself costs more than they make. That explanation lands far differently in 2026. The Twins now play in a publicly funded, revenue-friendly ballpark that dramatically altered the franchise’s financial outlook. Target Field was supposed to put an end to the Metrodome excuses. There is no bad lease to point to now. There is no outdated facility suppressing revenue. There is no legitimate comparison to the late 1990s environment. Yet, the same talking points persist. For 2026, the Twins are projected to have a payroll of around $100 million. In today’s MLB landscape, that places them uncomfortably close to the bottom. Eight teams are currently projected lower, and four more are within $5 million and could easily surpass Minnesota before Opening Day. Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Miami all sit below $80 million, and the Twins would likely only join them by trading Pablo López (and his $21-million contract) and further thinning the roster. For a franchise that insists it wants sustained competitiveness, the margin for error remains razor-thin. Ownership continues to rely on the same narrative it has used for decades. They say (implausibly) that the team is losing money. They say the economics are complex, and that spending must be restrained. If that is truly the case, the solution is obvious: Sell the team. Owning a Major League Baseball franchise is not a civic obligation. Other organizations are making money while fielding competitive teams, year after year. If the Twins are a financial burden rather than a viable business, then it is time for the Pohlad family to step aside. They aren't, of course; that's a lie. If the family is dedicated to that lie, though, they still ought to sell. For fans searching for hope, it may exist beyond the 2027 season and the potential for another lockout. A reset of baseball’s economic structure could create a more favorable environment and allow the Pohlads to sell the franchise at a price they consider acceptable. That outcome might finally close a chapter that has dragged on far too long. Until then, Twins fans are left watching the same movie on repeat. The excuses are familiar. The stakes feel lower than contraction, but the frustration is just as real. Is this simply history repeating itself, or is there still a path forward with the current ownership group? Share your thoughts in the comments. 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Frank Cairone, a left-handed pitcher who was a second-round draft choice by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2025, is in a New Jersey hospital following a car crash on Friday. In a statement released Saturday, the Brewers said, "Frank is currently being cared for at a hospital in New Jersey with the support of his family. The Brewers’ thoughts and prayers are with Frank and his family during his difficult time." No other information has been released. According to NJ.com, Cairone was injured during the collision new his home in Franklinville, N.J. Cairone had to be flown to a hospital in Atlantic City, N.J., for treatment, a source close to the family told NJ.com. Police said Cairone was driving a vehicle when another driver failed to stop at a stop sign and slammed into Cairone's car. Cairone is a 6-foot-2, 195-pound left-hander who was taken by the Brewers with the 68th pick of the 2025 draft, a supplemental choice the Brewers received for not signing 2024 pick Chris Levonas, a right-handed pitcher also from New Jersey who instead honored his commitment to Wake Forest. Cairone, who turned 18 in September, signed for a $1.1 million bonus instead of going to Coastal Carolina, but did not make his professional debut, instead spending time at the Brewers' complex in Arizona. Cairone is the 26th-ranked prospect in the Brewers' system, per MLB Pipeline. View the full article

Heading into last year’s trade deadline, I wrote an article about the areas in which I thought the Brewers needed to upgrade. One of the things I pointed out was that at the time, Milwaukee ranked near the bottom of MLB for OPS and Defensive Runs Saved from shortstop. I went on to write that based on this figure, Joey Ortiz’s defensive abilities had slipped, a statement which was met with quite a bit of pushback from commenters. One reader pointed out that -7 DRS didn’t match the eye test, and others generally agreed that the figure didn’t seem to be an accurate representation. In an effort to save what little journalistic reputation I currently have, I tried my best to explain what was going on, but to be honest, I was starting to get as confused as everyone else. His numbers at the end of the season only made things worse. After playing 1,217 ⅔ innings at shortstop in 2025, Ortiz ended with 12 Outs Above Average (5th among shortstops) and -2 Defensive Runs Saved (14th among qualified shortstops). So how is it that these numbers, which should theoretically give us a quick idea of whether someone is a good, great, or bad defender, are telling two different stories? Interestingly enough, he wasn’t even the only Brewer for whom this was true. I wrote another article about Brice Turang’s diverging defensive narratives in August. So, since I wasn’t the only one who was confused by exactly what these numbers meant and how to interpret them, I figured a deeper dive into each was necessary. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) In the beginning, the main way to assess a player’s defensive abilities was fielding percentage. It was a simple formula (putouts divided by total chances), but it was far too basic to capture any of the nuance of fielding. A great example is Nick Castellanos, who had a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage in 2022, 2023, and 2025 as a starting outfielder, but is also a notoriously bad defender. The DRS framework was first introduced in 2009 by John Dewan and Bill James, who had used data from Sports Info Solutions dating back to 2003 to consider more variables in the field. In their modern forms, these are: ART (Airballs, Range, and Throwing) Runs Saved (All Fielders) Good Plays/Defensive Misplays and Errors Runs Saved (All Fielders) Bunt Runs Saved (Corner Infielders, Catchers, Pitchers) Double Play Runs Saved (Middle Infielders and Corner Infielders) Outfielder Arm Runs Saved (Outfielders) Pitcher Stolen Base Runs Saved (Pitchers) Catcher Stolen Base Runs Saved (Catchers) Strike Zone Runs Saved (Catchers) Catcher Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (Catchers) To calculate all of this, each component of a play is assigned a bucket and a difficulty value. The bucket depends on which aspect of defense is being tested. For example, a right fielder throwing out a runner going first to third would receive credit to this rARM, while a smooth double play by two middle infielders would go into their rGDP buckets. This value is based on the percentage of similar balls in play that were successfully converted to outs. So, if the throw from the right fielder to third base was made into an out in 99% of similar situations (unlikely, but go with me), it would get an expected value of 0.99, while a tough diving stop to start a double play that was made by 1% of shortstops would have a value of 0.01. If the play is successfully made, the player receives (1 - expected value) to the respective bucket. If they botch it, they lose that much value. So a successful routine grounder with an expected success rate of 85% would net a fielder 0.15 plays above average, but flubbing it would leave them with a -0.85. The value of each bucket then gets converted to a run total, based on context and a run expectancy matrix. The final DRS for a given player is the difference between the total value of their plays made and missed in all buckets relevant to their positions and the league average. Most are pretty straightforward, but I wanted to highlight two that sound pretty darn similar: rGFP and rPM. rPM stands for Runs from Plus-Minus, which primarily tracks range and assigns a value to each batted ball based on characteristics like location and historical success rates. rGFP is used in special circumstances where a defensive action contributes or costs value based on playmaking or intellect, rather than sheer ball-chasing. Examples include a first baseman scooping a bad throw or a batter being held to a single instead of a double because of an outfielder’s actions. This also counts against the player for doing things like missing the cutoff man or messing up a double play to get one out instead of two. The numbers are broken down by category on the Fielding Bible website, so (for instance) we can see that Ortiz was much better moving to his left than to his right; got value from his strong arm but struggled on turning double plays; and came out essentially even in defensive misplays and good plays, though that doesn't mean that he made the same number of them. He just had a roughly average ratio between them for a shortstop. We don’t get to see which plays moved the needle the most, though, so a negative DRS may mean that they’re average but regularly struggle with more difficult plays, or it could mean they’re messing up routine plays. Like WAR, DRS attempts to factor in every detailed aspect of fielding a baseball and arrive at a somewhat definitive number, but we tend to get summary judgments from it, rather than play-by-play breakdowns. For more information, feel free to check Fielding Bible’s FAQ on DRS. Outs Above Average (OAA) Outs Above Average was one of Statcast’s ways of gauging a player’s defense. It came out shortly after the system was introduced league-wide in 2015. Like DRS, it’s calculated slightly differently depending on which position you’re assessing. In the outfield, each ball in play is assigned a catch probability value based on the distance an outfielder has to cover, the direction he must travel, and the time he has to get to his destination. Like DRS, the fielder receives credit for each play made equal to (1 - catch probability) and loses value equivalent to the catch probability for failing to make the play. The infield is similar, but uses a more complex formula to handle the additional defensive intricacies. It considers distance covered and time, but it also accounts for the distance from the fielder at the “intercept point” (position after getting to the ball) to the base the runner is heading for. On force plays, it also factors in the sprint speed of the hitter. The biggest difference between OAA and DRS is that the former almost solely measures range, while the latter uses range as one of several ingredients in the recipe. This allows OAA to be calculated without video review, as the calculation is purely number-based. Furthermore, OAA is context-neutral, as it’s purely outs, not runs. This means a play made with the bases empty and one with the bases loaded counts the same. This partially explains why some players have such a disparity between their OAA and DRS figures. One good example is Bobby Witt Jr., who had 24 OAA and just 3 DRS in 2025, a disparity of 21. He and Zach Neto were the only two players I found to have a disparity this significant between the two metrics last season. Witt had a fairly high number of Defensive Misplays and Errors (33, which was eight more than Ortiz), but rated very well with his arm and was great going to his right, which made up for some weaknesses on balls up the middle. That pattern (good arm, better right than left, a few more mistakes than would be ideal) maps neatly to DRS; OAA just viewed him as making more plays above average than DRS's system estimated. Given what we now know about DRS and OAA, we could state that a play that would negatively impact DRS more than OAA could look something like: A mistake made in a higher run expectancy situation (e.g., runners in scoring position) A fair hit that was fielded in a way that allowed a runner to advance further than he should’ve A double play that resulted in just one out Based on this criteria, one example could be this play against the Athletics, where a soft flip to second baseman Jonathan India recorded an out but a better throw could’ve allowed the Royals to pick up an additional out. This play may fall into the higher run expectancy situation category, because a late spinning throw by Witt results in a run scored (and a game lost). Ah, but one other issue is that OAA and DRS are not calculated on the same scale. You can hear it in their names, right? One is runs saved; the other is outs added, or hits saved. For instance, Witt's 3 DRS came on 6 Plays Saved; there's a remaining conversion to be made. Each play made saves part of a hit, and thereby saves a fraction of a run. The OAA model's cousin makes that conversion from outs added to runs saved, to put Statcast and Sports Info Solutions's metrics on the same footing. Fielding Run Value (FRV) FRV is Statcast’s answer to DRS. It's largely based on OAA, which is why most players who have high OAA figures will also have high FRV figures, even if they score poorly in DRS. It also bakes in throwing; framing and blocking for catchers; and other subtle skills. FRV converts underlying metrics into runs, but it shouldn’t tell you a story that’s different from OAA. Because many fans don't understand that it's the final form of OAA (and because of its hellaciously awkward name), FRV is cited less often than either of the other two. Whereas OAA is easy to find (it shows up on every player’s Savant summary), and whereas DRS is the original advanced defensive metric, it's hard to immediately grasp the utility of FRV. Nonetheless, to properly compare two players, look either at their PART Plays Saved (on the Fielding Bible site) and their OAA, or at their DRS and their FRV. Offensive metrics have always been far easier to assess than defensive ones. Even with a head start, though, there’s disagreement over which metrics truly describe how good a hitter is. Things have now been refined enough where for many, using OPS or wRC+ is usually sufficient to get your point across, but things are not so simple for defensive numbers. OPS+ and wRC+ never diverge significantly, but that’s because they more or less measure the same thing and are made up of very similar inputs. On the other hand, DRS and OAA/FRV do some things materially differently. Subjectively, DRS makes the most sense to me as a solid measure of cumulative defensive production. That doesn’t mean that OAA and FRV are wrong; they just make some different assumptions and incorporate human help to a lesser degree. There’s only so much we can unpack without getting access to more granular data on individual plays, but at the very least, we can now translate numbers to meaning. Choose your fighter according to your new, improved understanding about these numbers and what forms them. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs bowed out early in the bidding for top starting pitcher Dylan Cease. They came much nearer to landing Japanese import Tatsuya Imai, but ultimately, Imai signed with the Astros instead. Michael King re-signed with the Padres, and Merrill Kelly returned to the Diamondbacks after they traded him to Texas in July. Trades have moved Mike Burrows to Houston and Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo to Boston, Some of the top reclamation projects and below-the-radar starters (Dustin May, Tyler Mahle, Cody Ponce, and more) have found their new homes. The market has moved, and the only movements the Cubs have made with it were the proactive choice to extend Colin Rea and the half-welcomed return of Shota Imanaga. In Rea, Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon, the Cubs have five pitchers penciled into their rotation for the coming season. A healthy Javier Assad and a returning Justin Steele would push that number to seven. By the end of last season, that group was insufficient to power the team past the Brewers in the NLDS, but the biggest reasons for that (Horton getting hurt in mid-September and Steele having undergone elbow surgery in April) will be out of the way by the middle of this year. Boyd will pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic in March, further reducing what were already slim chances of another 180-inning campaign from him. Imanaga inspired so little confidence in October that the team didn't use him at all in the decisive Game 5 of that NLDS, but they did then make the decision to extend him the qualifying offer, so they have demonstrated some faith in his durability and performance. It's not hard to find places where the team might still need innings from a starter, but there's no obvious vacancy in that corps. In fact, with Jaxon Wiggins on the cusp of the majors and more pitchers capable of providing length already in the mix, their depth is their strength. As we've discussed several times this winter, that doesn't mean Jed Hoyer shouldn't or won't add another starter. The Cubs remain engaged in both trade and free-agent starter markets, because beyond Horton, their starters all come with important questions about either durability or quality. Should they bring in a starter like Zac Gallen, Ranger Suárez or MacKenzie Gore, though, they'd begin to face a roster crunch in the rotation—especially because they've committed themselves to several out-of-options relief pitchers this winter. Let's imagine, then, that they do make an addition. Will it come with a subtraction? Trading a starter could give the team a much-needed crumb of added depth in the farm system; free up some money for the offensive improvements they also want to make before Opening Day; and clarify the plan for the starting rotation in 2026. It would be complicated, but it might be necessary. Imanaga can't be traded without his permission until June 15; he was technically a free agent before accepting the qualifying offer. Rea doesn't enjoy that protection, but he would save the team less money than most of the alternatives and they've already made an active decision to retain him. Boyd is the type of pitcher the Cubs systematically value more highly than the rest of the league, and was so important to last year's team that trading him feels unimaginable. Trading Horton actually is unimaginable. Steele, coming off surgery, would be hard to trade and isn't going to make that much money, either. The candidates to be dealt are Taillon and Assad. Entering the last year of his four-year deal with the team, Taillon has made some important strides, increasing the utility of his cutter and discovering the kick-change that changed his game in 2025. He's due $18 million this year, and he only has partial no-trade protection, in the form of a 10-team list he can tweak each fall and to which he can block deals. He makes the most sense as a trade chip, because his low strikeout rate and multiple minor injuries in 2025 leave more question marks about his future than are attached to most of the team's other options. Assad comes with just as many questions, but his salary for 2026 will be much lower than Taillon's. He can be traded without restriction, and he has three years of team control remaining, so his trade value will be higher. The key downside of moving him is simple: Assad can be optioned to the minors. He's the most flexible piece of their projected rotation picture, so dealing him would leave them with very little optionality. Because they re-signed Rea and fell back into a short-term arrangement with Imanaga, the Cubs aren't desperate to improve their rotation. Arguably, they should be, but that hasn't been the sense either agents or teams discussing trade candidates with Chicago have gotten. Instead, Hoyer appears to be focused on finding the right way to bolster his offense and build more medium-term upside for a team facing a fistful of free-agent departures after 2026. The team is still open to adding a starter, though, and if they do, it could mean a Taillon trade is in the offing. Such a trade would probably feel much like a salary dump than a win in itself, the same way the team traded Cody Bellinger for little return last winter. In doing that, though, they upgraded from Bellinger to Kyle Tucker, which helped them reach the NLDS for the first time since 2017. This time, the upgrade could be from Taillon to a player like Gallen or Suárez, giving them more team control, this time, as well as a short-term increase in playoff odds. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays signed yet another premier free agent in Kazuma Okamoto, but does his presence get in the way of another pact with Bo Bichette? View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have announced important dates for spring training. as the team stated pitchers and catchers will report to Fort Myers on February 10. Pitchers and catchers will hold their first workouts before the rest of the team arrives; Sunday. February 15 will be the first full squad workout for the team before spring training swings into full motion. Before players arrive, however, the yearly tradition known as Truck Day has to take place. The team announced that the festive day will take place February 2. The team also announced that spring training tickets will be available for sale on Thursday, January 8. The Red Sox will play an exhibition game Friday, February 20 against Northeastern University before opening spring training play against the Minnesota Twins the following day. View the full article

As they await an answer from Alex Bregman, might the Boston Red Sox pivot to Bo Bichette in free agency after his former team replaced him with Kazuma Okamoto? View the full article

This section of our top 25 San Diego Padres player assets is quite diverse and perhaps reflects why the team is still trying to get over the hump. From a top prospect to a fan favorite to a newcomer to the U.S., these five players range across the whole spectrum of expectations. This list ranks the 25 Padres players and prospects with this in mind: Who are the most valuable in the organization's pursuit of building a champion? To make this list, we considered age, upside, and contract. Each player's age and control years are based on his Baseball Reference age for the 2026 season and when Baseball Reference says he can become a free agent. For what we wrote in this series previously, check out Nos. 16-20 and 21-25. 15. Jake Cronenworth, 1B/2B 2026 season age: 32 Controlled through: 2030 Everyone loves Cronenworth, especially when he hits the Crone Zone (h/t Don Orsillo). But is it time to have the conversation about Cronenworth's production? Let's start with the obvious: his positional versatility makes him a flexible piece to move around the infield. In 2025, he was mainly the starting second baseman, but also slid over for some first base and even saw action at shortstop. The right side of the infield seems to be his best fit, although new manager Craig Stammen is likely to lean into Cronenworth's ability to play multiple positions. But, are Cronenworth's offensive contributions — which have been lacking since he signed a seven-year, $80 million contract extension following the 2023 season — enough to move the needle? The move was a bit surprising in that it was in the 2023 season where Cronenworth's offense took a step back. After a combined slash line of .256/.338/.431 from 2020-22, his 2023 slumped to a .229/.312/.378 mark with 10 homers and 48 RBIs, both the lowest of any of his full MLB seasons. Of course, he missed all of September that year with a fractured right wrist, but the ink was mostly dry on his stats. Cronenworth bounced back slightly with .241/.324/.390 with 17 homers and 83 RBIs and .246/.367/.377 with 11 homers and 59 RBIs in 2024 and '25, respectively. His most recent campaign was marred by an early-season non-displaced rib fracture that cost him about a month. Still, he put up a 2.4 bWAR this past season, his highest since 2022's 3.9 figure. With his contract running through 2030 while making $12.3 million per year, the Friars could use more offense from him. That price tag also makes Cronenworth a valuable trade chip if the Padres decide to go that route. 14. Sung Mun Song, IF 2026 season age: 29 Controlled through: 2029 Song is the great unknown for the Padres at the moment. Where will he play? Will he move around? Is the outfield a real possibility? How will his offense translate from South Korea to MLB? The good news for the Friars is that the investment in the 29-year-old infielder is low-level, more on par with a backup. The fact that Song, primarily a third baseman in the Korean Baseball Organization, can also play second and first will help with lineup flexibility. In particular, that will give Stammen a presumably reliable option to either rest third baseman Manny Machado or allow Machado to be the designated hitter. It will also provide more matchup opportunities. It was also floated by president of baseball operations A.J. Preller at the press conference announcing the signing that Song could see time in the outfield. That would only add to his and the team's versatility and depth. But offensively is where Song could make the biggest difference. After being rather nondescript in most of his KBO career, Song took off in 2024 and 2025, with slash lines of .340/.409/.518 (19 homers, 104 RBIs) and .315/.387/.530 (26 homers, 90 RBIs), respectively. He also had 21 and 25 steals in those seasons. The lack of previous noteworthy production could mean Song could take time to adjust to MLB. 13. Jason Adam, RHP 2026 season age: 31 Controlled through: 2026 Adam is one of the more unsung relievers in all of MLB. Since joining the Tampa Bay Rays to begin the 2022 season, he has put up a 3.20 FIP, 0.939 WHIP and 196 ERA+. But his 2025 ended Sept. 1 due to a ruptured left quadriceps. Initially, it was thought Adam could miss Opening Day, but an optimistic update in mid-November suggested that he could be ready to go for beginning of the season. That would be huge, as the Padres are expected to have six of their top seven relievers in terms of appearances from 2025 returning, with only closer Robert Suarez exiting the mix after joining Atlanta as a free agent. But Mason Miller will replace Suarez in that closer role, and Adam should be a premier set-up man once again. He uses a good mix of pitches, favoring his slider and changeup while factoring in a four-seamer and sweeper. This is a big season for Adam, as he is arbitration-eligible for the final time before hitting free agency. 12. Ramon Laureano, OF 2026 season age: 31 Controlled through: 2026 Laureano will be one of those guys that you see from a "Remember that Guy" social-media account in about 10 years and you will smile while remembering that he played for the Padres. Laureano is a solid defensive outfielder, with an elite arm and good-enough range that allows him to play any of the three spots, though he's probably more suited for either of the corners. With Fernando Tatis Jr. entrenched in right field following his second NL Platinum Glove in three seasons and young Jackson Merrill holding down center, Laureano will be a lockdown left fielder. He also puts up pretty good offensive numbers. While playing for four teams over the last two seasons, Laureano has logged a .272/.330/.483 slash line with 35 homers and 109 RBIs for a 125 OPS+. That included a .269/.323/.489 mark with nine homers and 30 RBIs in the final two months of the 2025 season with the Padres after coming over at the trade deadline from the Baltimore Orioles with Ryan O'Hearn. That all made it a no-brainer for the Padres to exercise their $6.5 million club option on Laureano for 2026. As long as he performs up to what he has done recently, he could be a candidate to stick around after becoming a free agent after next season. 11. Ethan Salas, C 2026 season age: 20 Controlled through: TBD Salas doesn't turn 20 until June 1, but 2026 marks his fourth season in affiliated ball. Some of the luster has come off of Salas since being the No. 1 prospect in the international free-agent class of 2023, but he still ranks at the very top of the Padres' organization. The Padres have pushed Salas, who appeared at Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio in 2023 as an 18-year-old. In 2024, Salas spent the season back at Fort Wayne, where he was still more than four years younger than the average player. He also played in the Arizona Fall League. Salas only played in 10 games in 2025, all at Double-A, after sustaining a stress fracture in his lower back in spring training. While his defense has been his calling card, his offense still needs a lot of work. In 2023 at High=A, Salas had a .206/.288/.311 slash line with four homers and 53 RBIs in 113 games. He did draw 47 walks, but also struck out 98 times. Salas then hit four more homers in 23 games in the Arizona Fall League, although his slash line was .228/.327/.424. Salas is likely to return to Double-A in 2026. He might be best served to stick the entire season at San Antonio just to build confidence in his approach at the plate. It doesn't make any sense to rush Salas at this point, with Freddy Fermin and Luis Campusano capably holding down the catcher spot in 2026. Also, Fermin is under club control through 2029, Let Salas mature and become the offensive threat the Friars dreamed on when they signed him. The defense is already there. View the full article

Dating back to 2018, I've created these rankings every year in early January. The idea is to take stock of talent throughout the Twins organization to understand what the front office has to work with, and to contextualize how their best players fit in — either as building blocks or trade candidates. In essence, we're trying to answer the question, "Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?" We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not exactly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, whereas this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific point of view. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. shortstop) get elevated, while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-hitting corner outfielders) get downgraded a bit. Going back through the lists year by year (linked below) provides a progressive glimpse into Minnesota's evolving talent landscape. We've seen players rise and fall. We've seen some young players fulfill their promise while others have fallen far short. Putting together the rankings this year, in the aftermath of a major talent overhaul at the trade deadline, has proven to be fascinating. One thing to note up-front is that despite the big purge, the Twins actually didn't trade any of the players who we viewed as most being their most essential (yet). Although Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa were among the team's best players, the first two are relievers and the second is a 30-year-old underperformer on a huge contract, which are big detractors in this analysis. They ranked 10th, 12th and 18th respectively on last year's list. You can review that list, plus the previous seven, below. From there we'll kick off our 2026 list with a look at the players I chose to rank 16th through 20th. Past organizational rankings: Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2023 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2022 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2021 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2020 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2019 Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2018 Okay, now let's dive into the 20 Twins players and prospects who are — in my humble opinion — most critical to making this rebuild effort a success, starting with their top draft pick from this past season. The Top 20 Twins Player Assets of 2026: 16-20 20. Marek Houston, SS Age: 21 Controlled through: 2031+ 2025 Ranking: NR When the Twins traded Correa and his contract at the deadline, they committed to a new future course at shortstop. Right now it's not clear exactly how that course will take shape, at least long-term, which is one of the biggest question marks surrounding the team's outlook. In terms of pure ability to play the position, Houston is pretty much unparalleled in the organization. His glove was his ticket to being selected in the mid-first round. Many evaluators believe he could play shortstop defensively in the majors right now. Hitting is where the developmental challenge lies for the Wake Forest product. He held his own at two levels of Single-A, batting .270 in 24 games after being drafted, but posted a .680 OPS with no power. Currently he projects as a light-hitting defensive specialist. That can play at short, but his ceiling will be capped unless he can turn a big corner at the plate. 19. Ryan Jeffers, C Age: 28 Controlled through: 2026 2025 Ranking: 11 Jeffers is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Houston: his value is all tied up in the short-term, but he is proven and essential. The Twins replaced Christian Vazquez with Alex Jackson, leaving Jeffers as the only catcher in the organization with a modicum of hitting ability or track record as a starter. Although his production has been unspectacular the past couple years, Jeffers remains a high-end offensive player at the position: Since 2023 his .772 OPS ranks fifth in the majors among catchers with 1,000+ plate appearances. His defense has declined, detracting from his overall value, but Jeffers is so far-and-away the team's best all-around catching option for the immediate future that losing him would feel like a complete white flag for 2026. There aren't many other players you can singularly say that about. 18. Brooks Lee, SS Age: 24 Controlled through: 2030 2025 Ranking: 6 I want to believe. He just hasn't given us much concrete reason up to this point. Lee's 12-spot drop in the rankings from last year reflects an extremely discouraging first full season in the majors. The production was lackluster and the underlying metrics were uninspiring. Lee has physical limitations — speed and arm strength chief among them — and has shown no capability of offsetting them in the majors. At the same time, he's 24 years old, and a former top draft pick and top prospect. The book is far from closed on him. Lee has shown occasional bursts of power and he can definitely make contact with consistency. He's a credible shortstop and likely a strong defender at second or third. Those are good ingredients to build around. But his overall game is trending the wrong way. 17. Bailey Ober, RHP Age: 30 Controlled through: 2027 2025 Ranking: 3 Another free-fall in the rankings from one year ago. The 2025 season saw Ober struggle with mechanics and health, lose precious ticks of velocity, and post an ERA that was 16% below league average. His strikeout rate plummeted and batters teed off for a career-high 30 home runs in just under 150 innings. Now past 30, Ober no longer has youth on his side. What he does have, though, is a superb track record prior to last year. Ober's ERA was above average in each of his first four MLB seasons and he had developed into a legit frontline starter heading into 2025, which is why this list had him ranked as a top-three organizational asset at the time. His drop-off is alarming in several ways, but we can't dismiss the possibility of a turnaround driven by a velocity uptick or arsenal tweak. 16. Connor Prielipp, LHP Age: 24 Controlled through: 2031+ 2025 Ranking: NR From down-and-out to up-and-coming. Prielipp has yet to make his major-league debut, but it's likely to come this year (maybe even on Opening Day) if he can stay healthy. That's the big hitch: Prielipp originally fell in the draft due to concerns over his health, which have been validated. He's thrown only 113 innings in the minors since joining the Twins org in 2022, after logging just 28 official innings in college at Alabama. Prielipp turns 25 in a few days, and hasn't even thrown 85 innings in a season. That puts him on a pretty surefire relief path, which the Twins haven't really shied away from. But in that role, there seems to be little doubt he can be a major difference-maker, with his explosive fastball/slider combo drawing loose comparisons to Josh Hader. If Minnesota is able to field a capable bullpen in 2026, I believe Prielipp will be a big part of the reason. He just needs to stay healthy. How important do you view these five players to the future of the Minnesota Twins? Share your thoughts in the comments, and check back tomorrow to find my picks for 11th through 15th in the rankings. View the full article

Owen and Jesse break down the Blue Jays' signing of Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto. They dig into why he’s going to help the Jays in the near term, and how it shifts the roles of other players like Addison Barger and Anthony Santander. The guys also talk about how his signing impacts the Blue Jays’ pursuits of other free agents like Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays made their four-year, $60 million contract with NPB star Kazuma Okamoto official on Sunday, just before his posting window closed. A six-time NPB All-Star, Okamoto was one of the top hitters on the free agent market. data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== To make room for Okamoto on their 40-man roster, the Jays designated right-handed pitcher Paxton Schultz for assignment. The 28-year-old has been in the organization since May 2021, when he arrived from the Brewers as the player to be named later to complete the Derek Fisher trade. The Jays had acquired Fisher two years earlier in a deal that sent Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, and Cal Stevenson to the Astros. (You can read more about active Blue Jays trade strings at this link.) Schultz made his MLB debut with Toronto in 2025, pitching to a 4.38 ERA and 3.83 xERA over 24.2 innings. He struck out 28 batters (25.5%) and walked only eight (7.3%). In his very first outing, Schultz threw 4.1 innings of scoreless relief against the Mariners, striking out eight of the 16 hitters he faced. Unfortunately, he never looked that sharp again. Following a mid-summer IL stint with middle finger inflammation, the righty only made one more appearance for the major league club, a scoreless inning on August 24. He was recalled once more in September but did not pitch in a game, nor did he pitch for Toronto in the playoffs. With all that in mind, it's not a shock to see Schultz DFA'd. He gave the Blue Jays some good innings in 2025, but roster spots are a valuable commodity. The Jays have significantly improved their pitching staff this offseason, not only with the likes of Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, but also more promising depth arms like Chase Lee and Spencer Miles. Eventually, Schultz became the odd man out. If Schultz clears waivers, the Blue Jays will be able to outright him to the minors and keep him in their organization. However, considering the promise he flashed in 2025, it wouldn't be surprising to see another team put in a claim. Featured image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Winter Meltdown returns bigger and better than ever. New venue. New surprises. New 2026 pint glass. Same electric Twins Daily energy you look forward to every year. This is the offseason celebration built by fans, for fans — and you’ll want to be there when it all melts down (in the best way possible). Fresh details will drop soon right here on Twins Daily. Consider this your official heads-up: mark your calendar now. Sign up to take care of Twins Daily. Tickets sell fast. Memories last forever. When & Where Date: Saturday, January 24 Time: 4:00 – 9:00 PM Location: A brand-new spot in downtown Minneapolis — just blocks from Target Field. And yes, it’s the same weekend as TwinsFest. That means you can soak up the full fan experience at Target Field, then stroll over to the Meltdown to top off the day with the ultimate afterparty. Each ticket includes: Two complimentary craft beers An exclusive Winter Meltdown 2026 pint glass Automatic entry into door prize raffles Five hours of premium Hot Stove hangouts with your people Live on-stage interviews hosted by Aaron Gleeman & John Bonnes Face time with special guests who mingle with the Twins Daily community Past guests have included Kent Hrbek, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, LaTroy Hawkins, John Bonnes, Aaron Gleeman, and more — plus rising stars like Simeon Woods Richardson and fan-favorite voice Cory Provus. Who’s stepping to the mic this year? Stay tuned. How/Tickets Hundreds of people have previously wanted to attend this exclusive event, but this year, we only have 250 tickets available. You will likely need to become (or know) a Twins Daily Caretaker to get a ticket. Each caretaker gets a free ticket to the Meltdown. Caretakers can buy up to three additional tickets for just $20 The Caretakers take care of Twins Daily, and we want to take care of them, so to give them the best chance, we're limiting the tickets to them, at least for now. If you want to join Twins Daily's Caretakers, you can do so for as low as $4/month. You get exclusive content, other benefits, and support from our hard-working writers, moderators, and tech guys. We would LOVE to have you join us. Can I Just Buy A Ticket? Maybe? If our Caretakers don't sell this thing out, we'll offer general admission tickets the week of the event. Last year we couldn't. But if we can, they'll be $60 apiece. Become a Caretaker here! If you're already a Caretaker, THANK YOU. We’ll get you your special link soon. But once we do, please don't delay in buying your ticket. We'll likely sell out, even limiting them to Caretakers and their friends. Looking for more details? Great! We'll reveal more about the Meltdown as it approaches, including our guests, special brewery, giveaways, and other sponsors. We'll soon reveal our new location, closer to TwinsFest and Target Field than ever before. You won't want to miss it! So follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, or Bluesky for more news as it's released. Plus, stop by all week as we reveal details. View the full article

Welcome to part five of North Side Baseball’s offseason series covering the 1918 Chicago Cubs. You can find the first four parts here: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Today, we’ll be taking a look at the life and career of Les Mann. Mann was an outfielder for the Cubs from the 1916 season until he was dealt to the Boston Braves during the 1919 season. Coming off of an epic championship game in 2023 that pitted Mike Trout against Shohei Ohtani in the ninth inning, the 2026 World Baseball Classic is starting to gather a lot of hype. The United States will be bringing arguably their best collection of talent ever in an effort to avenge their loss in that 2023 final game to Japan. And that fails to mention the stacked lineup that the Dominican Republic may field. The World Baseball Classic is sanctioned by the World Baseball Softball Confederation, which was created from a merger earlier this century between the International Baseball Federation and the International Softball Federation. The International Baseball Federation was created in 1938, thanks in large part to the work of Leslie Mann. Mann was born in Lincoln, Nebraska on November 18, 1892. He attended the Y.M.C.A. College in Springfield, Massachusetts. It was there where he would begin an illustrious career in athletics. In November of 1916, The Pittsburgh Press declared Mann as “one of the best football players the training school ever had.” According to his Society for American Baseball Research biography, with Mann being so close by, the Boston Braves took note of his athletic prowess and signed him to a contract that would pay him $150 per month. After a rough first couple of seasons with the Braves, Mann signed with the Chicago Whales of the Federal League, where he helped them win the 1915 pennant. After the Federal League disbanded, the outfielder found himself with the Cubs. Mann was serviceable, but not great, in his three plus seasons with the Cubs, with his best season coming in 1918. He posted a .288/.342/.384 batting line, which was 18 percent above league average, according to wRC+ at FanGraphs. His 2.3 FanGraphs WAR for that season was a major-league career high. He also put up 2.3 fWAR in the 1921 season with the St. Louis Cardinals, and while he did manage a 4.3 fWAR season in 1915, that was during his lone season in the Federal League. In 1922, Mann was with the Cardinals. They found themselves in a battle for first place with the New York Giants when Mann received a letter from his old 1918 Cubs teammate, Phil Douglas. Douglas, who did not get along with his manager, John McGraw, told Mann to “send a man over here with the goods and I will leave for home on the next train.” Rather than taking Douglas up on his offer, Mann turned his former teammate in. Douglas was banned from baseball for life until he was posthumously reinstated last May. In total, Mann finished his career with 1,332 hits, however, it is his post-playing career that is truly remarkable. As reported by SABR, the Nebraska native had a passion for youth sports, and even organized a baseball school. At the Leslie Mann Coaching System, he was one of the first adopters of film to enhance baseball teaching. He invented the Mannscope, which was a patented device that could stop film on a specific frame to allow for teaching. The Mannscope, which the National Baseball Hall of Fame is currently in possession of, sounds to me like the earliest form of an edgertronic camera. As stated in the patent for the device, and as listed on the Hall of Fame’s website, the camera allows for “plenty of time to thoroughly explain each play or movement shown on the screen before passing to the next one.” Being a huge advocate for making baseball international, Mann was determined to make baseball an Olympic sport. His efforts led to an exhibition at the 1936 Olympic Games in Berlin, and Mann even convinced the International Olympic Committee to make baseball an official Olympic sport at the 1940 Games. Those Games, though, were cancelled due to World War II. The World Baseball Softball Confederation, which sanctions the aforementioned World Baseball Classic and is the governing body for baseball and softball internationally, credits Mann as the “father of international baseball” on their website, as well as with proposing and launching the original International Baseball Federation, where he was the inaugural president. A lot of baseball’s worldwide popularity now is thanks to Les Mann’s efforts back in the first half of the 1900s. View the full article

When Garrett Mitchell hit the injured list in late April while Blake Perkins continued recovering from a fractured shin, the Brewers handed Jackson Chourio the keys to center field. The results were mixed. Chourio had a positive Outs Above Average (2), but that net estimate came from some extremes of performance. Chourio both rated well metrically and passed the eye test when pursuing balls laterally, but struggled when going back or coming straight in on the ball. Only 11 outfielders made at least four 5-star catches (those with an estimated catch probability under 10%), according to Statcast. Chourio was one of them. However, those 11 players' success rates on catches the system rated as easier (1-4 stars) went as follows: Ceddanne Rafaela - 94.6% Victor Scott II - 94.4 Denzel Clarke - 93.6 Jacob Young - 92.5 Pete Crow-Armstrong - 91.4 Myles Straw - 91.3 Kyle Isbel - 88.5 Steven Kwan - 85.7 Wilyer Abreu - 81.4 Isaac Collins - 78.4 Jackson Chourio - 76.8 In other words, Chourio could be exceptionally rangy, but he was also mistake-prone. No Brewers fan has much trouble reconciling that data with their day-to-day experience. akQ5Z0FfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdnRFVGTURCVllBQ1ZjTFV3QUhWUVJTQUFCV1ZGY0FCUVFFQVFRRlZ3WURVUUJU.mp4 After coming up through the minor leagues as a center fielder, Chourio played exclusively in the corners in his rookie campaign of 2024. Gold Glove right fielder Sal Frelick entered the year with 55 career big-league appearances in center and has been more fundamentally consistent in the field. The Brewers moved Chourio instead, though, because his skill set is better suited to play up the middle. While Frelick plays an aggressive outfield in his own right, Chourio is the more explosive athlete. He had the superior sprint speed—29.2 feet per second in 2025, which ranked in the 93rd percentile. That early quickness enabled him to have better jumps on batted balls, while still taking average routes. Moving quickly on contact leaves an outfielder with less time to read the ball, so most players with better jumps take less direct routes. As the defenders tasked with covering the most ground, good center fielders must be able to do both. Chourio falls into that category in the graph above. He’s one of the defenders near the vertical midpoint and to the right of the average line. His neighbors include Daulton Varsho, Bryce Teodosio, and Andy Pages, all of whom are strong defensive center fielders. Frelick, meanwhile, sits right along the line, meaning his reaction time and routes make him best suited for a corner spot. Scouts knew Chourio had the tools to be an above-average center fielder, with most prospect rankings assigning a 60 grade to his glove. The numbers back up those eye tests. It’s still a question whether he will develop the increased awareness and confidence to turn that athleticism into more consistent defense. If he can’t, he’ll be better off in the corners, where his speed can compensate for some of his weaknesses with less ground to cover. For instance, he'll have to get better at managing space and feeling the wall when pushed back to the barrier. ek1MNTBfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFNRkJWZFZYd2NBRFZRSEFBQUhWRkFBQUZsV1V3SUFBd1pSVXdOVVVnZFhCVllG.mp4 The Brewers may be best off if Chourio can make those strides in 2026. While Mitchell, Perkins, Brandon Lockridge, and Steward Berroa are great defensive center fielders, none of them is likely to fill Milwaukee’s need for more consistent power. The most in-house help could come from a change in left field, where Chourio has played most of his big-league innings. Jake Bauers has long flashed impressive raw power, and he finally made enough contact in September to start taking advantage of it. Shifting Christian Yelich back to the field semi-regularly would also give the Brewers more flexibility to slide another bat into the DH spot. However, both are poor fielders on a defensively-minded roster. Bauers has been worth -11 DRS and -12 OAA in just over 200 games in the outfield, while Yelich has not graded positively in either metric since 2018. Barring significant roster changes, the Brewers face a decision between defensive floor and offensive upside in their outfield. Inserting a bigger bat in left field may only be worth the gamble if they have a center fielder who can run down balls in the gap that Bauers or Yelich won’t reach. That risk becomes easier to take if Chourio becomes more trustworthy in center. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have spent the last half-decade rebuilding a minor-league system that lacked major-league-ready talent to help supplement the roster playing at Fenway Park. This movement towards developing, young, homegrown talent was needed after the 2018 World Series champions were supplemented by a mixture of young talent from the upper minors and by trading away other prospects to bring in key contributors like Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi. Following 2018, the farm system was rather weak, being ranked the worst in the league by Baseball America. At the beginning of the 2019 season, the top 10 prospects in the organization included the likes of Michael Chavis, Darwinzon Hernández, Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Tanner Houck, Jay Groome, Antoni Flores, CJ Chatham, Durbin Feltman, and Bryan Mata. Of those players, only two remain with the Red Sox, and three of them are planning on playing overseas in Japan for the 2026 season. Groome will be reinstated from his year-long suspension for sports betting, and both Chatham and Flores have been out of professional baseball since the end of the 2022 season. Feltman last pitched with the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League in 2025 and Chavis recently signed a minor-league deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Fast-forward from 2020 to the end of 2025, and the Red Sox have done a much better job of drafting and developing young players. It isn’t just the likes of Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer; the team saw players like Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle make the jump from MiLB to contribute important innings out of both the rotation and bullpen for a team fighting for a playoff spot. Guys like Jhostynxon Garcia and Brandon Clarke were used to bring in established rotation help in the form of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. Now, after being ranked as the number one farm system entering 2025, the organization has been ranked as the 14th-best system by Baseball America. The farm system has been in flux, as Craig Breslow has completed 49 trades since he took over as the chief baseball officer. But it wasn’t just prospects being shipped out. Rather,, he both acquired major-league talent and replenished the minor-league depth through trades of end-of-roster guys like Chris Murphy and Brennan Bernardino. Despite ranking 14th now, the system is in no way lacking talent. It’s just that most of the top prospects now are in the lower minors. Outside of Tolle, Early, Franklin Arias, Mikey Romero and David Sandlin, the remaining top prospects have either played mostly in the low minors or have yet to make their professional debuts. Despite that, the organization has a lot of talent that could increase the organization’s ranking once games begin to get played. First-round pick Kyson Witherspoon is a player who could move quickly through the minors after falling to the Red Sox in the 2025 draft. Along with him are the likes of Justin Gonzales, who ended 2025 with Greenville and could see time in Portland in 2026 if he continues to produce offensively; Enddy Azocar, a young player with stronger underlying data than his .232/.302/.355 slash line suggests; and Henry Godbout, who slashed .341/.473/.477 in his first taste of professional baseball and is seen by many to be a potential breakout candidate in 2026. The system may look a little depleted after so many trades and graduations, but in reality, Breslow and the Red Sox have made sure to keep replenishing it as they go along. Newcomers in the system that should elicit interest include the likes of Luke Heyman, Jake Bennett, Isaiah Jackson, Ronny Hernandez, and Adonys Guzman. The farm system is doing well as the Red Sox have decided to cash in on some of the prospects they developed to bring in quality major-league talent. That ranking may look a lot different by the middle of the season depending on how the 2025 draft class looks early on. While they may not be in the top five, the Red Sox could see their ranking improve a few spots. Of course, no one knows what Breslow is thinking, and another blockbuster trade that sends out more prospects would see the ranking drop even more. But that’s what a farm system is for — to help create the best major-league team with talent from both inside and outside the organization. Not every prospect works out (as seen from the team’s top 10 in 2019) and sometimes a top-ranked farm system doesn’t equate to winning it all. By the end of 2018, the team had one of the worst systems but won it all since Dave Dombrowski mortgaged the future for the present. Those days are now long gone; the Red Sox have developed a mindset of not just building for the present, but to have a system that can continuously pump quality talent into the future. It's a difficult balance to strike, but the Sox appear more and more capable of it by the season. View the full article

It's been only a few weeks since Fish On First's previous 2026 roster projection, but the Miami Marlins have been very busy. Since then, they signed right-handed reliever Pete Fairbanks to a one-year deal worth $13 million, traded Dane Myers to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for outfield prospect Ethan O'Donnell, acquired Esteury Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitching prospect Adriano Marrero and dealt Eric Wagaman to the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospect Kade Bragg. The Marlins also lost right-handed reliever Ronny Henriquez to season-ending right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery. Accounting for those transactions, here is our Marlins Opening Day roster projection, version 3.0. Position Players Default Starting Lineup: C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Christopher Morel, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Griffin Conine, DH Heriberto Hernández Bench: INF/OF Connor Norby, UTIL Javier Sanoja, OF Esteury Ruiz, C/1B Liam Hicks Ruiz is the leading candidate to fill Myers' shoes. He isn't as good defensively, but can play all three outfield spots, and his speed makes him even more useful off the bench in late-game situations. Ruiz has hit much better versus left-handed pitchers during his MLB career (.720 OPS), so most of his plate appearances should come against them. The Marlins can use Ruiz's final minor league option at the end of spring training if another hitter in camp clearly outperforms him. Just Missed: OF Victor Mesa Jr., C Joe Mack, 1B Deyvison De Los Santos An injury to any of the left-handed-hitting outfielders listed above could open the door for Mesa to make his first career Opening Day roster. He appeared in 16 Marlins games in 2025 across two separate stints. Mack will likely finish the year as the club's most-used catcher. However, expect his debut to be delayed long enough for the Marlins to secure an extra year of club control over him. Once De Los Santos shows that his winter ball success can translate to affiliated ball, he'll get his opportunity to earn the full-time first base job. Pitchers Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Max Meyer Bullpen: RHP Pete Fairbanks, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Josh White, RHP Lake Bachar, RHP Janson Junk Edward Cabrera continues to draw widespread trade interest. Still, we can't assume his departure yet—the Marlins have made him available in the past without receiving what they consider to be a fair offer. Fairbanks essentially replaces the injured Henriquez. He will be the Marlins' highest-leverage reliever, pitching in most save situations. White is coming off one of the best seasons by a Marlins minor league reliever in recent memory, posting a 1.86 ERA and 1.65 FIP in 67 ⅔ innings pitched. He has zero left to prove in Triple-A. Relievers are so volatile that service time shouldn't influence the timing of his debut like it would for a starting pitcher or position player. His inclusion leaves the Marlins with only one left-hander in their bullpen, but keep in mind that White struck out more than 40% of the lefties he faced in 2025. Just missed: LHP Braxton Garrett, LHP Josh Simpson, LHP Andrew Nardi Garrett's overall career numbers are actually slightly better than Cabrera's. He would be the first starting pitcher called up in the event of a trade. Going down to AAA may help shake off the rust after spending last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Marlins have had opportunities this offseason to squeeze Simpson and Nardi off their 40-man roster, but other players were sacrificed instead. That suggests the club truly believes in the positive flashes Simpson showed at the end of a difficult season and the progress Nardi is making in his comeback from recurring back problems. They will both be monitored closely during spring training. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays have made another high-profile acquisition in an already busy offseason, this time addressing the lineup by signing Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year contract. It’s an exciting deal, but it’s not quite the position player signing Jays fans were expecting or hoping for when this offseason started. It’s been impossible to look into the markets of consensus top free agent Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette without acknowledging the Blue Jays as an obvious fit. While Jays fans should be well practiced at avoiding falling victim to the rumour mill by now, there has been somewhat of an assumption that the Jays will be signing at least one of those guys, even from some industry insiders. Whenever a team makes a big addition – and Okamoto’s four-year, $60 million deal is a big addition – there’s always discourse as to how the move will impact the team's approach to the rest of the market. This signing puts the Blue Jays at an estimated luxury tax payroll of just over $308 million, which is currently the second highest mark in MLB, following only the L.A. Dodgers. It’s impossible to have a take other than that being awesome for Blue Jays fans, but it could very well make it financially impossible for the club to add another nine-figure contract like the ones that Bichette and Tucker seem destined to sign. Or maybe it’s still possible, but it would take a subtraction from the current roster via trade. In that case, Anthony Santander and José Berríos are the obvious names to point at. There’s also a chance that the Blue Jays continue acting like a behemoth organization and are able to sign one of Tucker or Bichette without major money going out the door. Before we predict which route the Jays are going to take when approaching their pursuits of Tucker and Bichette, it’s important to know what they’re getting in Okamoto. He’s put up some eye-popping numbers throughout his 11 seasons in Japan’s NPB, including a stretch of six straight seasons from 2018-23 where he hit at least 30 homers, and he hasn’t posted an OPS below .800 since his age-21 season in 2017. Aside from the obvious fact that Okamoto has been consistently one of Japan’s best hitters throughout his career, it’s not hard to assume that one of the things the Blue Jays liked most about his game is the way he combines that pop with an ability to avoid swing and miss and put the ball in play. It’s an identity shared by so many Blue Jays hitters, and we just watched the Jays ride that identity to a top-five offense in 2025, and to a World Series berth. There aren’t very many questions about Okamoto’s bat. He’s expected to bring a high floor and fit right into an already dynamic lineup with his strong approach. Defensively, the hope is that Okamoto can be an average defensive third baseman and a well-above-average first baseman. There are also a few whispers that he could fit in a corner outfield spot. Looking at the way the Jays roster is currently built, it wouldn’t be hard to assume they’re pretty happy with where it’s at heading into 2026. They will likely be one of the favourites to win the American League again. To be clear, the Blue Jays almost definitely feel like their roster is close to complete and would feel good about their chances of repeating as American League champions without another big-name acquisition. But if they want to get greedy, there’s still space for the Jays to fit either Bichette or Tucker and push the ceiling of this team as high as it’s ever been. As far as Bichette, the likely scenario, if he were to return, is that it would be as a second baseman, with Andrés Giménez sliding over to shortstop, just as we saw in the World Series. Okamoto will likely be the everyday third baseman, which is going to push Addison Barger into a regular role in right field, with Santander getting the majority of the playing time in left. The Tucker fit is maybe a little bit less clear at first glance. Adding Tucker would leave one of Santander or Barger on the outside looking in when it comes to playing time, unless the rumours of Okamoto’s viability in the outfield are true, and the three of them split two positions, as well as the odd appearance as the designated hitter. In this scenario, Ernie Clement is the everyday second baseman. If I had to bet, a Tucker signing doesn’t come without a Santander trade, but a Bichette reunion could allow the Jays to keep the current roster intact. The good news for Jays fans is that early reporting around the topic is that the team isn't being ruled out of either the Tucker or Bichette market despite the Okamoto signing. To tie a bow on this for now, I don’t think that signing Okamoto necessarily helps the Jays’ chances of signing either Bichette or Tucker, but that’s not to say that either scenario outlined above is impossible. All 30 teams in baseball can make room on their roster for either Bichette or Tucker, including the Blue Jays after signing Okamoto. It’s simply going to come down to which teams make the best offers, as well as the choices of the players. If there’s money still available, it’s hard to make a case against Toronto being one of the most attractive destinations in MLB, with a World Series-ready roster already in place. If you’ve read through this whole article and are still feeling like you have no idea if the Jays are still going to be in the Bichette and Tucker markets, welcome to the MLB offseason! Nobody knows anything until a deal is done. View the full article

If you're feeling open-minded, Bo Bichette is the perfect fit for a Chicago Cubs team struggling to find the right one this winter. They made only passive overtures to infielder Kazuma Okamoto before he signed with the Blue Jays, but they met with Pete Alonso in December, and have had multiple discussions with and about Alex Bregman this offseason. Upgrading their offense—and, specifically, bringing in a solidly above-average right-handed batter to balance and deepen the lineup—is part of Jed Hoyer's offseason plan. Bichette is a unicorn, with a swing unlike that of any other right-handed batter in the league. His steep stroke (37.5° of swing tilt this season) is unusual for righty hitters, but the fact that he also lets the ball travel very deep into the hitting zone before making contact (meeting it 24.5 inches in front of his center of mass) sets him apart even from those otherwise roughly similar. Here are all the other hitters with a swing plane of at least 36° and a contact point no more than 28 inches in front of their frame in 2025: Dillon Dingler Adam Frazier Freddie Freeman Nick Kurtz Brandon Marsh Zach McKinstry Ryan McMahon Jackson Merrill Shohei Ohtani That's a highly varied set of hitters, but they almost all share one trait: left-handedness. Only Dingler is a righty batter. Here's a composite animation of Bichette's swing from last season. It's highly unusual. Bo Bichette 2025.mp4 His extreme counterrotation with the shoulder makes him a lashing line-drive hitter, and his exceptional feel for contact makes him dangerous despite his lack of high-end raw swing speed. This is the kind of player the Cubs like to bring in, when they make a major investment, because he lacks some of the measurables (especially swing speed and power potential) that invite larger-market teams to make bids so high that Chicago loses interest. With Nico Hoerner set to hit free agency after 2026, Bichette also fits the positional and timeline sweet spots for the Cubs. He could play third base this season and second base thereafter; he could stay at third and play alongside Hoerner and Dansby Swanson for another half-decade. He'll only turn 28 years old in March; he has plenty of prime years left. He'd be a plus defender at second and at least an average one at third, even though he was markedly worse than average at shortstop over the last few seasons of his tenure in Toronto. Signing Bichette would get the Cubs out of a tense chess match with Scott Boras. With him in the fold, the team wouldn't need to sweat the rising likelihood that Alex Bregman returns to the Red Sox, and they could trade either Hoerner or Matt Shaw in their pursuit of help in the starting rotation. Bichette would become the team's big financial outlay, and the displacement he would create on their roster would bring them pitching help on a more cost-controlled basis. The rub, of course, is that Bichette is still likely to cost more than the Cubs are willing to pay. He's remained on the market this long and drawn the Cubs' attention at all because the $250-million deal once imagined isn't out there, but he will still get to choose between a deal that would be the richest in Cubs history (likely eclipsing $200 million) or one that would come with massive flexibility and expected value, with a shorter term but multiple opt-outs and an annual average value over $30 million. Hoyer is trying to avoid that grand an outlay, and a source familiar with the team's thinking indicated that they do not view Bichette as the same kind of special case (a confluence of ability and personal trustworthiness) that Swanson was when they signed him to a seven-year deal two winters ago. That doesn't mean they won't sign Bichette to a similar, even larger deal. He's been more consistently productive at the plate than Swanson, and is a year younger than Swanson was when he signed with the team. The Cubs are in a stronger financial and competitive position now than when they signed Swanson. Still, with several other big spenders in on him, Bichette has a robust market. The fit here is perfect. He would unlock some of their most desirable paths forward, not just for 2026 but through the end of the decade. To make it happen, though, Hoyer and company would have to do something uncharacteristic. Their disciplined valuations would have to tell them that the market was a bit too low on the slowish-swinging not-quite-shortstop, and they would have to feel confident that they could execute the other half of a large and complicated double-move, trading young talent for a pitcher whose arrival would dovetail with Bichette's to form the next set of pillars for this ever-evolving roster. View the full article

The Miami Marlins have signed right-hander Jack Ralston to a minor league deal. It only appeared on Miami's transaction log this weekend, but Ralston joined the organization officially back on December 16. Ralston was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals out of UCLA in 2019 and has spent his entire professional career with them until now. Although successful as a starter during his draft year, the seventh-rounder was quickly converted to a reliever. Last season, all 38 of his appearances came out of the bullpen. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 3.61 ERA, 28.0 K% and .248 BAA in 57 ⅓ innings pitched. His sky-high 16.7% walk rate held him back from earning a call-up. The Cardinals also declined to select him to their 40-man roster after the season, so he departed as a minor league free agent. Based on 14 innings of Triple-A data, Ralston's fastball averages 93.4 mph. His go-to secondary pitch is a low-80s splitter. The 6'6" righty also has a cutter and a slider in his arsenal. At the age of 28 with such recent experience at the AAA level, Ralston is almost assured of attending big league spring training as a non-roster invitee, but Fish On First is unable to confirm that at the moment. In addition to Ralston, the Marlins have also signed Jesús Bastidas, Evan McKendry, Brian Navarreto, Samuel Vásquez and Tyler Zuber to minor league deals this offseason. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins made a quiet but telling roster move this week, bringing veteran shortstop Orlando Arcia into the organization on a minor-league contract with an invitation to big-league camp. It is not the type of signing that sells jerseys or sparks a hot stove frenzy, but it fits squarely into the front office's plan for 2026. Derek Falvey loves to set a floor for the roster, and Arcia adds depth to a critical position. Arcia arrives in Minnesota with a decade of major-league experience. He split last season between Atlanta and Colorado, logging time with two very different clubs and producing very similar results. By nearly every modern metric, he was among the least productive hitters in baseball with regular playing time. That is not new; he's always been a glove-first shortstop. Now 32, he has been the worst hitter with 800 or more plate appearances over the past two seasons. His 33 wRC+ was both a career low and the second-lowest of any player who took at least 200 trips to the plate in 2025. His glove keeps him employable, but only in a limited role, and only on a team willing to accept the offensive tradeoff. There is some modest platoon usefulness, as his numbers have historically played a bit better against left-handed pitching (his OPS was 50 points higher versus lefties in 2025), but even that comes with caveats. The appeal here is almost entirely about defense, experience, and surviving a long season. Earlier in his career with Milwaukee, Arcia was a plus defender at shortstop, combining for 13 OAA from 2017-18. Those days are gone, but he still grades out as serviceable, and last year he expanded his résumé by appearing at every infield position, including first base. On a roster where flexibility is often the difference between treading water and sinking, a player who can competently move around the diamond carries real value. This signing is best understood through the lens of Brooks Lee. After being thrust into the starting shortstop role following the Carlos Correa trade, Lee handled a challenging assignment with professionalism, even if the results were uneven. Over 139 games, he posted a .236/.285/.370 line for a 79 OPS+. The Twins remain confident in his long-term outlook, but he hasn't shown enough to be trusted as the only true shortstop on an active roster. Behind Lee, the depth chart thins quickly. Ryan Kreidler provides defensive value but makes Arcia look like a robust hitter. Minnesota learned painfully over the last two seasons how quickly an infield can unravel when injuries hit, and Lee isn't even an inspiring first choice. Arcia gives the Twins a veteran option who can start 40 to 60 games if needed, and prevent the position from becoming a nightly adventure. If he breaks camp with the club, he'll have a short leash. If he does not, he becomes a highly experienced presence at Triple-A St. Paul and the first call when things go sideways. This is not a move about upside. It is about competence and protection. The Twins can afford creativity in the corners and even in the outfield. Shortstop is different. Minnesota cannot afford another season in which defensive erosion forces the roster into damage-control mode. Signing Arcia will not fix the lineup, but it might keep a small problem from becoming a big one. Sometimes that is exactly the point. What are your initial impressions of the Arcia signing? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

On Sunday, the Royals on social media announced that they had agreed to a three-year extension with manager Matt Quatraro. Quatraro was entering the final year of his current deal this season, and his extension will not kick in until 2027. His newest deal is guaranteed until 2029, with the Royals holding a club option for 2030. The Royals hired Quatraro to replace previous manager Mike Matheny after the 2022 season. After a rough 56-106 debut season, the former Tampa Bay Rays bench coach has had strong success as Kansas City's skipper. Over the past two years, his teams have finished 86-76 and 82-80, respectively. It is the first time the Royals have had back-to-back winning seasons since 2014 and 2015 under manager Ned Yost, who led the Royals to two AL Pennants and a World Series title. In his first managerial job at the Major League level, Quatraro holds an overall record of 224-262. He led the Royals to the postseason in 2024, sweeping the Baltimore Orioles in two games in the AL Wild Card round before falling to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS. He was named a runner-up for the AL Manager of the Year award in 2024, losing to Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt that season. In addition to Quatraro, the Royals will return bench coach Paul Hoover, lead hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, and pitching coach Brian Sweeney, who have all held those positions since Quatraro took over as manager (Zumwalt was promoted to hitting coach in 2022 under Matheny after they fired previous hitting coach Terry Bradshaw). New coaches on the staff for 2026 include assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, who come from the Brewers and White Sox, respectively, and assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran, who comes from the Athletics. Former assistant hitting coaches Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon were not retained, and former assistant pitching coach Zach Bove took the lead pitching coach position with the White Sox this offseason. View the full article

No deal is close as of Sunday morning, but according to Ken Rosenthal and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Miami Marlins and New York Yankees are currently in talks regarding a possible Edward Cabrera trade. You know Cabrera's situation by now. In 2025, his fifth MLB season, he demonstrated a career-best combination of control and durability. The Dominican right-hander owns a lifetime 4.07 ERA and 25.9 K% in 431 ⅔ innings pitched as a big leaguer. Entering his age-28 season, Cabrera is still three years away from free agent eligibility. On paper, the Yankees already have great starting rotation depth. However, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are each expected to begin the 2026 campaign on the injured list. Re-signing Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are the only offseason moves they've made thus far to address that issue. Talks have progressed to the point that Craig Mish of FanDuel Sports Network says several high-ceiling prospects are headed to Miami if a deal gets done. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald corroborates both reports and adds that the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have shown interest in Cabrera. The San Francisco Giants are another possible suitor, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The timing of these rumors is unsurprising. Japanese star Tatsuya Imai reached an agreement with the Houston Astros earlier this weekend, which ought to open floodgates on what has generally been a slow-moving starting pitching market. View the full article

For the third year running, the Cubs' offseason is coming down to a staring contest between frequent but unhappy collaborators Jed Hoyer and Scott Boras. Boras inflicted a painful loss on Hoyer and company this week, as his client Tatsuya Imai signed a three-year deal with the Astros worth up to $63 million. The Cubs thought they had a deal all but complete with Imai, only to have Boras leverage their last offer into one from Houston that included one of the key provisions on which Hoyer wouldn't budge: an opt-out after 2026. Naturally, Chicago isn't pleased with Boras's tactics, and this isn't the first time in the last few years that that has been true. For any of their objections, though, Boras has two reasonable and forceful rejoinders: They're not ultimately making the strongest bids; they're trying to win free-agent sweepstakes only on their terms; and Where else are they going to go? Last year, Chicago refused to offer Alex Bregman as many opt-outs as the Red Sox did, even though they did propose a longer deal with a higher net present value. They also declined to consider the deferral structure that allowed Bregman and Boras (however misleadingly) to label the deal as being worth $40 million annually. This time around, Chicago wanted Imai, but not on a deal that allowed him to opt out after 2026. While the benefits of deferring money accrue mostly to the team and are a matter more of style than substance, Hoyer's intransigence on certain opt-out opportunities meant that the deals signed by Bregman last winter and Imai this time had expected values at least as high as what the Cubs offered, and greater flexibility from the player's side. It's still understandable that the Cubs feel chapped by Boras's order of operations with Imai, but as Boras and Hoyer both know, giving the agent any kind of cold shoulder is not an option now. One of the reasons why the Cubs were reluctant to consider shorter and higher-AAV structures for Imai is that they want to keep 2026 payroll available for the other top target of their offseason: Bregman, again. Now that they've missed on Imai, if they make a meaningful upgrade to the rotation, it will almost surely have to come in the person of either Zac Gallen or Ranger Suárez. We talked at length about why Suárez holds obvious appeal for the Cubs, and about why they were tied closely to Gallen by a rumor earlier this offseason. The thing is, both are Boras clients, too. Framber Valdez is not in the Cubs' wheelhouse; he's not coming. The team's three top targets in free agency are Bregman, Gallen and Suárez. That leaves Hoyer little leverage in negotiations with Boras, and is one reason why Boras was also happy to steer Imai to Houston: It leaves one of the top landing spots for his other three key free agents hungry. The trade market is an alternative, of course, and the Cubs would just as soon pursue improvement down that road, but discussions with teams like the Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams) and Marlins (Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara) have gone nowhere recently. A trade for Gore or Cabrera would almost certainly have to be paired with a Bregman signing, making up for the offense lost when the team parts with one of their top young hitters in exchange for a starter. That would only sharpen Hoyer's position on the winter chessboard and leave Boras with even more leverage in that negotiation. In the winter of 2023-24, Hoyer won a showdown with Boras when he got Cody Bellinger back on a three-year deal with a reasonable AAV (and opt-outs after each season). He signed Boras client Matthew Boyd early last winter, and then stayed engaged with the super-agent the rest of the winter about Bregman. Ultimately, though, the Cubs have never signed a Boras client to a deal richer than the $80 million Bellinger could have earned over the full course of his three-year deal. For that matter, Boyd's is the second-richest deal they've struck with him. Boras dislikes the Cubs almost as much as they dislike him at this moment, because they were one of the first big-market teams to consistently block his signature end run to ownership on top-tier free agents, and because they spend so much less than they could and should. Already, it seems clear that the Yankees or Mets will outbid Chicago on Bellinger; the fit there is imperfect, anyway. Bregman could very well return to the Red Sox, though the Cubs remain locked in on him, much as they were at this time last year. There are still enough teams who need a starter to ensure a robust market for Gallen and Suárez, now that their agencymate Imai is out of the way. Hoyer is relentlessly value-focused in his free-agent shopping. That has led to a high batting average on significant investments. He's signed seven players to free-agent deals with eight-figure AAVs, and they've delivered an average of 10.4 runs above average per season during their time with the team on those deals, according to Baseball Reference. That might not sound like a huge win, but it is. Nor does that count Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, who have averaged over 20 runs above average per year since their salaries crested $10 million. The only below-average season turned in by any player in this cohort was Jameson Taillon's 2023. That said, refusing to go the extra year or the extra dollar to land an even higher tier of talent has kept a relatively low ceiling on the Cubs. If they want to elbow past the Brewers in 2026, they need to tilt their projection at least 40 more runs to the good, and that means either hitting big on one of their young players or making multiple significant additions between now and Opening Day. To do the former, they have to be better at player development than they've yet proved themselves to be. To do the latter, they have to swallow their pride and win a Scott Boras bidding war. View the full article

Baseball is not supposed to be as easy as Byron Buxton made it look at times during the 2025 season. Even the best hitters in the world need a little help from batted ball luck, sequencing, and timing for numbers to truly pop. For the Minnesota Twins, several hitters posted surface-level results that outpaced what underlying metrics suggested should have happened. That does not mean those performances were flukes, but it does provide valuable context as we look ahead to 2026. To frame the discussion, the league-wide average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while the average expected wOBA came in slightly higher at .315. wOBA is designed to measure overall offensive value by weighing the quality of contact alongside strikeouts and walks. Expected wOBA uses batted ball data to estimate what a hitter should have produced based on how hard and at what angles the ball was hit. When wOBA significantly outpaces expected wOBA, it often points toward overachievement that may be difficult to repeat. Luke Keaschall Keaschall posted a .363 wOBA in 2025, despite an expected mark of .323. That gap of roughly forty points stands out quickly. The underlying reasons are pretty straightforward when digging into his batted ball profile. Keaschall did not barrel the baseball often, finishing with a 5.2% Barrel rate. That is well below what you would typically expect from a hitter producing at that level. Where Keaschall made his money was against offspeed pitches. He slugged .556 against them and actually outperformed his expected numbers by +.122 xwOBA compared to his wOBA in that pitch bucket. That suggests a combination of good pitch recognition and favorable outcomes on balls that weren't always crushed. Looking ahead to 2026, some offensive pullback feels likely. Still, Keaschall does not need to repeat a near .360 wOBA to be valuable. If he tightens up the quality of contact even marginally, he can remain a productive bat who helps the lineup reach the next level. Alan Roden Roden is an interesting case because the majority of his at-bats came in Toronto. Acquired as part of the Louis Varland trade, Roden appeared in just 12 games for the Twins. For the season, he finished with a .249 wOBA, compared to an expected mark of .225, a gap of about 24 points. Roden struggled to hit the ball with authority, posting a 2.0% Barrel rate. Much of his contact was on the softer side, which generally caps offensive upside. However, his biggest separation between results and expectations came against breaking pitches. That is where he hit both of his home runs and most of his extra-base hits, outperforming his expected numbers by +.089 in that area. The 2026 outlook is more optimistic than the Twins sample alone would suggest. Roden profiles nicely as a fourth outfielder and has the defensive ability to back up Buxton in center field. There is also real offensive upside here, as evidenced by his 151 wRC+ at Triple-A last season. If that production translates even partially, Roden could carve out a meaningful role. Byron Buxton Buxton’s 2025 season featured a .367 wOBA and a .348 expected mark, a difference of just under twenty points. While smaller than the other gaps on this list, it still qualifies as overachievement given how high the baseline already is. The reasons are primarily tied to Buxton doing Buxton things. He punishes fastballs, producing a wOBA that was 32 points higher than his expected output against them. He also continues to hit the ball extremely hard, posting a 53.8% Hard Hit rate that places him among the elite in baseball. His expected slugging percentage has topped .500 in each of the last two seasons, which helps explain why his offensive floor is so high. Replicating his 2025 totals will not be easy. Some dip in production is a reasonable expectation. However, the Twins' bigger goal is availability. If Buxton can play more than 100 games for a third straight season, something he has yet to do in his career, even a slightly reduced offensive line would be a massive boost to the roster. Overachieving seasons are not inherently bad things. They often represent players maximizing their strengths and benefiting from favorable conditions along the way. For the Twins, understanding where production outpaced expectations helps set realistic goals for 2026. Keaschall, Roden, and Buxton each bring different skill sets and different risk profiles, but all three showed how impactful things can be when results break the right way. Which of these hitters do you think is most likely to beat the projections again in 2026, and who worries you the most when it comes to regression? Let us know your thoughts in the comments. View the full article

On January 1st, Derek Carty's The BAT X projections went live on Fangraphs, much to the fanfare of fantasy baseball players and fans everywhere. For those unfamiliar with The BAT X, Carty defines his projection system in an article on The Athletic from May 19th, 2025. Here is a summary of The BAT X in his words: The incorporation of Statcast data is a significant departure from the original BAT projection system, making The BAT X a bit more accurate and comprehensive. While the BAT projections are still live and available on Fangraphs, it is more commonplace for baseball fans and fantasy baseball managers to rely more on Carty's latest projection system. I have already broken down hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers in my latest series on Royals projections via Steamer, which typically is one of the first projections to drop in the offseason. Thus, I am not going to do the same with the BAT X, especially since only hitter projections are available on Fangraphs right now. That said, as with any set of projections, there are some intriguing data points regarding certain players' outlooks for the upcoming season. So, in this post, I am going to focus on four hitters and my takeaways from their BAT X projections for 2026. Below is a table of all Royals hitters that the BAT X profiles in its projections, with a sortable data table available at this link. I have organized hitters by Fantasy Points (FPTS), mainly because BAT X is better suited to fantasy baseball purposes given its offensive focus. Even for non-fantasy baseball people, organizing by FPTS gives readers an idea of who the most productive hitters will be for the Royals in 2026, based on BAT X. Let's take a look at those four hitters and what Royals fans should be expecting for 2026, based on this latest projection set. Expectations More Modest For Caglianone In my Steamer projections post, Jac Caglianone seemed like the most significant rebound candidate for the Royals in 2026. After hitting seven home runs and posting a 46 wRC+ in 232 plate appearances in 2025, Steamer projected Caglianone to hit 16 home runs and post a 110 wRC+ in 418 plate appearances. That is a remarkable improvement and would make him one of the Royals' best hitters. The BAT X is a little more cautious in their projection of Caglianone. In 514 projected plate appearances, they still project the former Florida product to hit 16 home runs and collect 61 RBI. However, they also project an 85 wRC+, a 25-point difference from his Steamer projection. What's interesting about Caglianone's difference in projection is that there isn't much difference in their projected plate discipline metrics. Steamer is projecting a 0.36 BB/K ratio while the BAT X is projecting a 0.32 mark. Obviously, Steamer is higher, but the difference is negligible. The most significant difference is in BABIP, as BAT X is projecting a BABIP of .272 while Steamer is projecting a .286. That not only affects wRC+, but also batting average (.227 to Steamer's .255) and OPS (.678 to .769). The BAT X does account for launch angle, and Caglianone's LA Sweet-Spot% of 29.7% ranked in the bottom percentile of the league. His radial chart below also shows that, while the rookie outfielder hit the ball hard most of the time, he hit it too often on the ground, resulting in more outs than base hits. Thus, the BAT X believes that Caglianone will not make enough gains just yet in launch angle to improve his BABIP and, therefore, overall production. However, the Royals and Caglianone have been aware of these MLB struggles with launch angle, and his 14.1-degree average launch angle in Triple-A was 10 degrees higher than his average in the Majors (4.1 degrees). If Caglianone can see more launch on batted balls in 2026, especially early on, he could outperform his BAT X projection and put up something closer to his Steamer outlook. Could There Be A Battle Between Isbel and Rave in Center Field? Two players who also stuck out in interesting ways were outfielders Kyle Isbel and John Rave. Now, Isbel is a strong defensive player, and his +10 FRV ranked third among all Royals fielders last year with 25 or more innings. However, Rave wasn't that much worse, as he put up a +3 FRV in only 432 innings, 600 fewer innings than Isbel. It's possible that Rave could've matched Isbel over a similar sample of innings. Now, the reason I bring this up is that the difference between Isbel and Rave's BAT X projections is minuscule, with Rave holding a slight advantage, as seen below. Isbel: 480 PA, 7 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 67 wRC+, 370.1 FPTS Rave: 144 PA, 3 HR, 15 R, 12 RBI, 3 SB, 68 wRC+, 121 FPTS Obviously, Isbel has better counting numbers, but he also has 336 more plate appearances than Rave. Conversely, the 28-year-old outfielder has a slightly higher wRC+. Thus, like the defensive metrics, it's possible that there would be less of a gap between Isbel and Rave offensively with more Rave plate appearances. When looking at the Statcast metrics of both players, they look pretty similar from a year ago. Here's a glimpse at Isbel's via TJ Stats. Now, let's take a look at Rave's. Isbel makes more contact, but chases a lot more and doesn't pull the ball as much. On the flip side, Rave whiffs more, but chases less and pulls the ball more. Considering the new Royals' hitting staff's philosophy seems to be to minimize chasing, Rave may fit the Royals' lineup better than Isbel in 2026, solely on offensive profile. Now, I'm not saying that the Royals should bury Isbel on the bench. Instead, it wouldn't hurt JJ Picollo to explore the trade market to see what kind of value Isbel may have. Players with similar defensive-first profiles like Michael A. Taylor have been widely sought, so it's possible that trading Isbel away could help upgrade their farm system or give them some depth in the corner outfield position, where more power is needed. Again, I doubt the Royals do this, especially given Isbel's defensive value and his standing in the clubhouse (he's one of the longest-tenured Royals on the roster). Still, if Rave has a hot Spring Training, a trade involving Isbel may be something to keep an eye on before Opening Day. Expect an MVP-Caliber Season From Witt It was a "down season" for Bobby Witt Jr., which is crazy to say after he posted an 8.0 fWAR season in 2025. However, he posted a 10.5 fWAR season in 2024, and his 130 wRC+ last year was 39 points lower than his mark during his AL MVP-runner-up campaign. Fair or not, Witt's incredible 2024 season will always be the standard for him every season. The good thing is that on the offensive end, the BAT X expects some bounce-back from Witt. In 665 plate appearances, Witt is projected to hit 30 home runs, score 106 runs, collect 96 RBI, steal 37 bases, and post a 135 wRC+. All those marks are better than his Steamer projections, including wRC+ (Steamer projects a 133 mark). The BAT X also projects a .230 ISO, a 25-point increase from his 2025 ISO and 11 points above his Steamer-projected ISO. That kind of power projection is good to see, especially since that seemed to be an area where Witt regressed a season ago. A reason for the optimistic BAT X projections for Witt is that the Statcast profile still was stellar from the Royals' franchise star last year. Here's a look at his Stacast Summary profile via TJ Stats, and notice the amount of red, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. The only blemish with Witt's profile is that he chases a reasonable amount (30th percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (14th percentile). Conversely, he did pull the ball in the air 13.7% of the time, which did put him in the 43rd percentile. It's still not up to superstar standards, but it's a step in the right direction and suggests some improvement could be on the way in 2026. For the Royals to make the postseason in 2026, Witt needs to be closer to his 2024 self offensively while still maintaining his 2025 defense (which netted him a second-straight Gold Glove award). If the Pull Air% continues to improve, I think it's not out of the question that the player expected to produce 1,009.2 FPTS by BAT X could be even better in 2026. The BAT X is projecting a good baseline for him in this upcoming season. With the proper adjustments to his pitch recognition and ability to pull the ball (which I think Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames can help him out with), he could push for another AL MVP run against the Yankees' Aaron Judge. That, in turn, could make the Royals not only playoff-bound but possible contenders, especially with a deeper roster in 2026 than in 2024. View the full article