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FanGraphs released its annual ZiPS projections for the Twins this week, giving Twins fans their first broad statistical snapshot of what the 2026 season could look like. ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski, is a projection system that blends recent performance, aging curves, historical comps, and a healthy dose of probabilistic modeling to estimate future value. It is not a prediction set in stone, but it does offer a valuable lens for identifying strengths, weaknesses, and areas where upside may be hiding. For the Twins, ZiPS paints a picture that feels familiar. There are clear problem areas, a few positions of relative strength, and a farm system that still drives significant optimism. Problem Positions Shortstop and left field stand out as the thinnest areas on the roster. Brooks Lee is projected as the primary shortstop, and while ZiPS sees him as playable, it does not treat the position as a strength. Lee’s bat (83 OPS+) profiles better than his defense (-5 Def), and the overall projection reflects a player who can hold his own but may not elevate the lineup. Left field is even murkier, with a combined 0.8 fWAR. The current mix of Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, James Outman, and Alan Roden projects as serviceable but uninspiring. ZiPS does not see a clear above-average regular in that group. Minnesota does have high-end prospects who could eventually change the picture (see below), but most of that help is more realistic for the second half of the season, rather than Opening Day. Top Positions At the top of the list is Byron Buxton, who is coming off arguably the best season of his career. ZiPS still likes his overall impact (119 OPS+, 3.0 WAR), but the ever-present health concerns naturally cap expectations for his playing time (473 PA). The hope is that he can come close to repeating last season’s All-Star and Silver Slugger-level production, though nothing about Buxton has ever come with guarantees, especially as he gets further into his 30s. Second base checks in as the Twins’ second-strongest position. Luke Keaschall is projected to handle the bulk of the workload and comes in with a 106 OPS+ and 1.8 fWAR. Edouard Julien is projected for 1.2 fWAR, a number that feels optimistic after his uneven 2025 campaign, but ZiPS continues to believe in the underlying offensive skill set. Minnesota has talked about Keaschall getting time in the outfield, so that might help the team’s glaring hole in left field. Top Prospects Get Mixed Reviews ZiPS is particularly bullish on Kaelen Culpepper, projecting him for 1.9 fWAR in 510 PA. That raises an interesting question about how aggressively the Twins plan to push him, given that he finished last season at Double-A Wichita. The Twins are comfortable letting Lee ride at shortstop for now, and it seems more likely for Culpepper to get 200 PA or fewer in 2026. Injuries could always impact that number, but there is no reason to rush one of their top prospects. The system also sees potential in Emmanuel Rodriguez, assuming health cooperates. ZiPS projects a 98 OPS+ and 1.3 fWAR, ranking in the team’s top 10 in position-player WAR. There is a scenario where he could claim left field quickly if things break right. Walker Jenkins, on the other hand, receives a more cautious outlook with a 93 three-year OPS+, signaling some uncertainty about how soon his elite tools will fully translate. Starting Pitching for Days Where ZiPS really lights up is the rotation. Bailey Ober’s projection leans more on his broader track record than his 2025 struggles, viewing him as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm (102 ERA+, 4.20 FIP). ZiPS is also enthusiastic about Zebby Matthews, projecting a 110 ERA+. Simeon Woods Richardson at 104 ERA+, Taj Bradley at 101 ERA+, and Mick Abel at 97 ERA+ all come in as valuable contributors. The common thread is depth, as the system clearly likes the organization’s pitching inventory across the majors and upper minors. Minnesota’s bullpen carries far more uncertainty than the rotation. ZiPS views Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Eric Orze as capable setup caliber options rather than true late-inning anchors. Sands stands out with the third-best projected ERA+ on the roster, a sign that ZiPS is buying into the adjustments he made over the second half. Topa, Funderburk, and Orze all land at a 107 ERA+, suggesting steady but unspectacular production. The hope is that the Twins supplement this group with additional veteran arms while continuing to lean on the front office’s recent success in turning Triple-A depth into usable bullpen contributors. In the end, ZiPS offers a reminder not to let frustration define expectations. As Szymborski put it, “The easiest thing for people to do is set this past season as a baseline and understand that this team isn’t going to be much better in 2026. But using last season’s record as a baseline is generally a poor idea, as there’s a good argument that a lot of the 2025 Twins underperformed their actual ability.” His perspective neatly sums up the tension surrounding this roster. The ZiPS projections are not screaming contender, with a win total estimated between 78 and 84, but they are not confirming a lost cause either. There are obvious holes, particularly on the left side of the defense and in the corner outfield, yet there is also enough pitching depth and prospect-driven upside to envision a better outcome if a few things break right. For a Twins team trying to reset expectations after a disappointing year, ZiPS offers something closer to cautious encouragement than cold reality, and that may be exactly what this fan base needs heading into the spring. What stands out about Minnesota’s ZiPS projections? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

It's no secret that the San Diego Padres' best unit is the bullpen. An offense with big names but meager production and a rotation that may struggle to put warm bodies on the mound can hardly amount to the awe-inspiring awesomeness of a relief corps helmed by Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and others. That's true even when accounting for the losses of Robert Suarez in free agency and Jason Adam to injury. The Friars' bullpen ranked first in MLB in ERA (3.06) and saves (49) this past season while finishing top-three in strikeout rate (25.8%) and FIP (3.53). The group was dominant, and the same should be the case in 2026, so long as A.J. Preller doesn't get any bright ideas or blockbuster trade proposals. Everyone's stats are impressive, and I don't need to inundate you with all of them here; Miller (2.23 FIP, 44.4% strikeout rate), Morejon (2.28 FIP, .147 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters), Estrada (3.55 FIP, team-leading 77 appearances), and Adam (3.07 FIP, 33.3% whiff rate) all thrived in their respective domains of expertise. So long as that quarter is healthy and still on the roster, they'll form the backbone of the Padres' high-leverage operation. Even the team's next tier of relievers is a sturdy bunch — Wandy Peralta, David Morgan, and Bradgley Rodriguez all had strong results in 2025, and as middle-inning relievers, they can surely be counted on to bridge the gap between the... questionable starting rotation and the fantastic back-end of the bullpen. And none of this even accounts for the swingmen the team has signed in free agency this offseason (Kyle Hart, Ty Adcock, and Daison Acosta). There's impact, depth, and everything in between in this bullpen. Truly, the Padres should feel comfortable leaning hard on the unit in 2026. That brings us to Yuki Matsui, who occupies a bizarre space as a good reliever in an elite bullpen. The 30-year-old southpaw has two years remaining (plus a player option) on the original five-year contract he signed back in 2023, and he's been aggressively average in his two years with the Padres. In 126 innings, he's logged a 3.86 ERA, 3.52 xERA, and 4.40 FIP in 126.0 innings, all totaling up to exactly 0.0 fWAR. That's not a "bad" pitcher by any means, but among a crowd of thunderbolt-hurling closers and lefty-dominating southpaws, Matsui stands out only because he doesn't stand out. He was better in 2024 than he was this past season, but concerns about his size (5'8", 165 pounds when soaking wet) and lackluster velocity have proven valid against big-league competition. After striking out more than 33% of hitters in NPB from 2018-23, he's sitting at a 24.6% strikeout rate in MLB. Again, there's nothing wrong with a low-leverage reliever who posts mid-3.00 ERAs and strikes out a quarter of the batters he faces. But Matsui was billed for so much more after shredding Japanese hitters to the tune of a 2.40 ERA with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. He's still getting hitters to whiff and chase at above-average rates, but his failure to induce ground balls or limit free passes has earned him a demotion to the third-string lefty role out of the 'pen. None of this means Matsui can't put together the caliber of season his overseas success once portended. His splitter (.249 xwOBA in 2025) remains an effective offering against right-handed batters, hence why he's held reverse splits with the Padres. His fastball (40% usage in MLB) remains problematic, though he's gotten enough production out of his slider and sweeper versus lefties to hold them relatively in check. The primary issue is that he's got no vertical variance in his offerings — his slider, sweeper, and splitter all hover within a few inches of each other on the y-axis — other than his fastball, which is so dependent on induced rise that it tends to get hammered if it's not up in the zone. The reintroduction of his curveball or sinker might help matters, but as a one-inning reliever, developing a fifth or even sixth pitch isn't high on the list of priorities for Matsui; he needs to find the right balance of his current offerings to stand a better chance against MLB competition. *Graphic courtesy of Baseball Savant The real trap facing Matsui is what the preamble of this article discussed: opportunity. Barring injury, there's just not many visible paths for the left-hander to garner any type of meaningful innings for Craig Stammen in 2026. His reverse splits mean Peralta or Morejon will always get the preferential treatment against left-handed batters, and his lack of elite strikeout stuff will keep him from getting leverage spots with people on base. I'd be remiss not to wrap this up with a final reminder that Yuki Matsui is a good pitcher. He'll never be as dominant as Mason Miller or Adrian Morejon, but neither will 99% of professional pitchers. They just represent a different class of hurler than Matsui does. There's no shame in that. But because those two — and all the other aforementioned elite relievers the Padres employ — occupy roles in the same bullpen as Matsui, the Japanese southpaw finds himself on the fringes of the roster this offseason. Sometimes, simply being "good" isn't good enough. View the full article

The Twins have been methodical in building an infield pipeline that could anchor the franchise for years, and the 2026 season marks the first true step toward that plan becoming reality. Brooks Lee will open the year at shortstop with Luke Keaschall alongside him at second base, while Kaelen Culpepper continues his climb after a breakthrough season in the minors. Their development is intertwined, and Minnesota is preparing for multiple scenarios where all three could play significant roles. Keaschall’s positional path is already expanding, and Derek Falvey made clear that the organization views him as more than just a second baseman. Falvey explained that Keaschall’s broken forearm last season paused their original plan to explore outfield reps earlier. “For Luke specifically, obviously got a ton of time at second. With the way his season went with the broken forearm, it kind of screwed up our plans for exploring the outfield more like we were originally going to do this past year,” he said. With Keaschall now past his arm rehab, the Twins are revisiting that developmental track. “That’s something that from a throwing program perspective this offseason, we’re going to spend more time making sure he’s building out to get some reps out there in the outfield,” Falvey said. The Twins see Keaschall’s versatility as key to fitting all their pieces together. Falvey said the organization will be having more conversations with him about what that transition will look like and emphasized that both he and Derek Shelton believe it can benefit the club. “We think it could be a real opportunity for him to keep finding as many ways in the lineup that help the group as we try to fit all the pieces together and slide other guys around, too. It could be really valuable if he could run out to left field or center field along the way.” Unstated, there, is the other major reason the team is considering that move: Keaschall looked bad at second base in 2025. He probably doesn't have the fluidity or the hands to play on the dirt on an everyday basis, though the club hopes he can stay there at least part of the time. Culpepper remains a step behind Keaschall and Lee in terms of timeline, but his stock continues to rise. After splitting the year between High A and Double A, he solidified himself as one of Minnesota’s most promising prospects. “Yeah, Kaelen had an awesome year," Falvey said. "Really could not have asked for it to go much better.” Culpepper played shortstop most of the time, but also saw early work at second and third base as the organization began expanding his defensive profile. “He’s getting some work, you know, early work at second base, third base, a little bit of game exposure in those spots. And we’ll let that continue to play out as we get through spring training into the season,” Falvey noted. If all three players are healthy at the same time (a big if when it comes to Twins top prospects), Minnesota has several intriguing defensive configurations. The most straightforward setup would feature Culpepper at third, Lee at shortstop, and Keaschall at second. That alignment keeps all three in the infield, while still allowing Keaschall to move into the outfield when needed. Another scenario emerges if Culpepper arrives ready to take over second base. In that case, Keaschall’s growing experience in the outfield becomes even more critical. Lee would remain at shortstop in that alignment, giving the Twins a strong defensive foundation up the middle. There is also the possibility that early-season struggles or injuries force a different arrangement. If Lee has a problematic defensive start, Culpepper has the skill set to take over at shortstop, sliding Lee to second base. The Twins value the ability to shift players around as needed, and this trio gives them more flexibility than they have had in years. Whatever alignment Minnesota ultimately settles into, Lee, Keaschall, and Culpepper will be central to the organization’s future. Their versatility allows the Twins to adapt to performance, injuries, and roster construction in a way few clubs can match. The next step is seeing how quickly all three can grow into the roles the Twins envision for them. How will these three players fit into Minnesota’s long-term plans? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays added $37 million to their fast-growing payroll last Friday night, but just a few hours before they signed Tyler Rogers, they completed their first trade of the offseason. Right-hander Chase Lee is on his way over from the Tigers, with lefty relief prospect Johan Simon going the other way. It's a one-for-one swap of bullpen arms. Here's the skinny on Lee: He's 27 years old and made his MLB debut in 2025, so he has six years left of team control. He pitched in low leverage for Detroit, and while his first taste of the majors wasn't a disaster by any stretch, he did get knocked around a bit (4.10 ERA, 5.16 xERA, 4.53 FIP). However, he was good enough at Triple A to warrant a call-up, with a career strikeout rate just under 30% in parts of four seasons. He managed a 20.7% K-BB there in 2025 despite a 6.47 ERA, which ballooned thanks in large part to a shockingly low 48% strand rate. The Tigers, choosing to trust the strong peripherals, gave him a look, and here we are. Lee is a side-armer. His 80-mph sweeper is his best weapon, averaging a whopping 19 inches of glove-side movement from a -4° arm angle. He has a sinker that sits 89 mph with plenty of drop from that low arm slot, and he also uses a four-seamer to change hitters' eye levels, as well as a changeup against lefties. Pitch quality models are torn as to which fastball is better; he deployed the four-seam more to lefties while the sinker was his go-to against righties, but the sweeper plays. It got a 120 Stuff+ score at FanGraphs in 2025, while PitchingBot's stuff model gave it a 60 on the 20-80 scale. Lee was able to crack Baseball America's list of the top 30 Tigers prospects earlier this year, mostly because of how much upside the sweeper has. He also earned a 60 grade for his control from BA's panel of evaluators, and since being traded from Texas to Detroit in the Andrew Chafin deal in 2024, he has put up zone rates in the high-50s at every level he has pitched. He throws a lot of strikes, but unlike most side-armers, he also got plenty of strikeouts coming up through the minors. He ran into one too many barrels once he reached the majors (13.9% Barrel/BBE, second percentile), but with a plus breaking ball and multiple fastball shapes from an unfamiliar release point, the best is yet to come. The Blue Jays entered Friday with the likes of Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland, Yimi García, Brendon Little, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, Tommy Nance, and Eric Lauer crowding the bullpen depth chart. On top of that, they just selected Spencer Miles in the Rule 5 draft. Lee has minor league options to spare, and he wound up being the first of two relievers with a negative arm angle that Toronto acquired in short succession, and the other one is making eight figures for the next three years. It's safe to assume Lee will start 2026 in Buffalo, but the potential is there for him to become a big league middle reliever in the near future. What's interesting about this deal is that to acquire this low-slot reliever with a nasty breaking ball, it cost the Blue Jays... a low-slot reliever with a nasty breaking ball. Simon is a 24-year-old lefty who saw Double-A action for the first time this past year, and it went swimmingly (2.38 ERA, 32.7% K, 11.1 IP). He had to spend parts of four years in Rookie ball to get a walk problem under control, not seeing Class A until eight months ago, so he's far from a finished product. Of all pitching prospects who threw at least 250 sliders in 2025, Simon's slider was the very best according to Baseball America's Stuff+ model. It touches the mid-80s from a low 3/4 delivery, making it an absolute nightmare for lefty hitters. He hopped from Dunedin to Vancouver to New Hampshire this summer, so he's certainly on a positive trajectory, but the injuries and inconsistency that kept him in rookie ball have prevented him from becoming a ranked prospect to this point. This seems like a smart deal for both teams, involving two high-upside pitchers who are fairly similar, albeit with different handedness and at different points in their careers. Detroit needed to clear a 40-man roster spot to make the re-signing of reliever Kyle Finnegan a possibility, and both teams still get the chance to develop an under-the-radar reliever with a great sweeper. Lee won't get a long MLB leash on a Blue Jays team urgently trying to win, but he figures to be on the short list whenever injuries arise or the flexibility of having an optionable piece is needed. View the full article

Unless big changes are made with the roster, Kristian Campbell is now in the mix for an outfield position with the Boston Red Sox. I’ve already outlined how that creates more problems than it solves, but it did cause me to start thinking about how Campbell could end up as a contributing member of the outfield in 2026 and beyond. There’s the obvious path, where an injury forces Campbell to receive multiple starts, but that’s something no one should be wishing for. Instead, let's focus on two possible solutions to the problem at hand. Option #1: The Double Trade Even though a trade of an outfielder looks less and less likely as the offseason progresses, a blockbuster big enough could present itself. In this hypothetical situation, the Red Sox would be sending two of their starting outfielders to another team to land a co-ace starting pitcher to pair with Garrett Crochet. This trade would likely come from the two corner outfield spots since Campbell is currently penciled in as the starting left fielder for Ramon Vazquez’s Roberto Clemente Professional Baseball League team, the Criollos de Caguas. As of this writing, he’s slashing .174/.345/.217 with more walks that strikeouts. Those numbers don’t look exceptional, but there’s reason to believe that he may be starting off a bit slow. For one, he’s bulked up. He looks a lot closer to the Kristian Campbell that showed up to spring training last year instead of the one who ended the season in Worcester. Two, he has changed his batting stance quite a bit. Some even say his new stance resembles Alex Bregman. Could his new frame and stance help him to regain his offensive footing? It’s yet to be seen, but he’s a stellar athlete who needs time to adjust to these changes. Admittedly, this feels far-fetched right now. The Red Sox have been hesitant to trade even one of their outfielders — trading multiple may simply be a bridge Craig Breslow isn't willing to cross, even if it solves the logjam and enhances the pitching staff. Option #2: Platoon Him and Wilyer Abreu/Jarren Duran This is likely the more realistic option that the team is looking at, and it’s also the least exciting of the two. Even though Craig Breslow and Alex Cora gave Abreu a huge vote of confidence to begin seeing more time against left-handed pitching, he’s still going to need to get days off. Having him sit against some of the more dominant lefties in the game early in the season could be a path that gets Campbell playing time in the outfield. He won’t be a regular starter, but he will likely see more time in the outfield than most fans currently expect. Including Duran’s name here may come as a surprise to some, but Duran, even after multiple seasons in the big leagues, still doesn’t handle left-handed pitchers all that well (61 wRC+ last year). Campbell would be able to rotate between both corner outfield spots to give both left-handed hitters a breather every now and then. Duran and Abreu should still see the lion’s share of time in the corners, but having someone like Campbell coming in to spell them late in games or give them rest days isn’t a bad thing. Especially if he can figure things out in Winter League ball and carry it over to spring training. Lest anyone forget, Kristian Campbell is a player with an incredibly high ceiling. Even though we may not currently understand why the powers that be see him as an outfielder, patience is needed with a player so young. Campbell rose through the minor leagues with a quickness that few prospects get to experience, so some growing pains at the big-league level were to be expected. Yes, he crashed hard in 2025. But now, he’s added weight to his frame, adjusted his batting stance, and hopefully finds a combination that works for him. If it does, the Red Sox will have an even deeper pool of outfielders to pick from during the season. View the full article

Some 2,500 days ago, the Twins announced a pair of five-year pacts for two of their young stars, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. It was a shrewd and symbolic move: the pair—signed as international players in the same class, friends as they rose through the system together—served as complementary core players around Byron Buxton, Miguel Sanó, and José Berríos. They hadn’t yet broken out, but they each had arguably their best season in 2019, fueling a 101-win machine while giving the franchise cheap production for years. Polanco and Kepler’s success is an example of why teams have aggressively sought pre-arbitration extensions in recent years. The surplus value potential is sky-high. As Polanco averaged over 3 wins above replacement per season (according to Baseball Reference), the Twins paid him around the going rate for a mid-tier reliever. Kepler, though less valuable in an absolute sense, was still a tremendous bargain: a two-win player paid like someone expected to fill in the back end of a rotation or play only in a platoon role offensively. If a pre-arb player flops (like Scott Kingery or Evan White did for the Phillies and Mariners, respectively) after signing this kind of deal, the downside is far less than if a free agent does so. Both franchises “only” ran $24 million in the red, spread across six years. The Twins' savings on Polanco and Kepler were perhaps double that. With Royals breakout star Maikel García recently inking such a deal, a question arises: do the Twins have a pre-arb player they should lock up long-term? Serious Contenders Matt Wallner Wallner thundered his way through back-to-back seasons with a .370 OBP and .500 slugging in 2023 and 2024, before slogging through a far more tepid campaign in 2025. It’s easy to stomach his defensive butcherings when his OPS is nearly .900. At a slugging-forward .776, matters get much more murky. Nonetheless, Wallner possesses undeniable tools. Few can swing as hard as him, throw with such velocity, and impart pure, utter, game-altering damage onto a baseball. He even cleaned up the whiffs a little last year, striking out at a career-low (but still high) 29.1% while walking 11.7% of the time. He has obvious limitations, though, and the extreme nature of his profile would probably make the team nervous to guarantee a significant amount of money. His age may limit the desire to extend him. As a medium-bloomer, Wallner already celebrated his 28th birthday, meaning any free agent years bought out will come after he turns 30. Royce Lewis This offseason marked Lewis’s first year in arbitration, meaning he technically isn’t “pre-arb,” but the idea is the same: he’s a talent whom the team could choose to lock down before free agency. No one on this list has done the things Lewis has done. For a moment in 2023, he looked like a future MVP candidate, smacking homers at a historic rate while spearheading the late surge that helped lead the team to the playoffs. Then—while hobbled so badly he could only saunter to first base—Lewis cracked four homers in the postseason to lead the team to the ALDS. Much can change in two years. Those homers felt like a lifetime ago. Like Wallner, Lewis saw his play degraded to the point where—separated from the name and pedigree—there would have been a legitimate argument for him to be non-tendered this offseason. An 85 wRC+ from the hot corner excites no one. Extending Lewis would be a bet on his potential and an offered olive branch. Clearly, something has been up with his relationship with the franchise. He’s groused and grumbled about money, losing, and how he’s hesitated to make adjustments because of his apparently uncertain position on the team. Perhaps rewarding such behavior with multiple millions is unwise; maybe it would provide the foundation he needs to get his mentality right. Check Back in the Future Luke Keaschall The best recent performer of the bunch, Keaschall is probably a year or two away from being considered for a contract like this. Next year will be his age-23 season. It seems like the best time to start offering to buy out free agent years will be after that, assuming his play continues to impress. Dark Horses Taj Bradley Impossibly, Bradley is still just 24, making him younger than Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson. He’s arbitration-eligible following the 2026 season. A strong showing could push the team to extend him long-term, especially as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober inch towards free agency. Brooks Lee Guys with negative WAR nearly 200 games into their big-league careers don’t typically demand extensions. Lee needs to prove he can at least hold his own in MLB before the Twins entertain ideas of a multiple-year contract. The pedigree and prospect heritage are there, though. Of all these candidates, a Lewis extension brings the most intrigue. He’s at the perfect age where buying out free-agent years could be crucial, and it could provide the stability he apparently needs to make adjustments and not push himself through injury. What do you think? Is there someone else the Twins should extend? Or would you hold off until next offseason? View the full article

Miguel Amaya played exceptionally well in 2025. He batted .281/.314/.500. He hit a huge early-season home run in a comeback win against the Dodgers at Wrigley Field, which held up as one of the year's great, dramatic Cubs moments. He cleaned up the exchange from his mitt to the throwing hand when throwing out runners, and significantly improved his pop time as a result. He looked like a budding star, and exactly what the Cubs needed him to be. You already know the 'but' that comes after all that, though. Amaya got hurt on a throw in Cincinnati in May, suffering a significant oblique strain that took him out of action until mid-August. Upon his return, he immediately suffered a gruesome-looking (though, thankfully, moderate) ankle injury while trying to beat out an infield hit in Toronto. He only took 103 plate appearances in the majors all season. After a 2024 campaign that provided some hope for his durability, this year was a sad reversion to his broader career pattern: lots of promise, and an injury to thwart every would-be breakout. Thankfully, Carson Kelly had an exceptional season, even if much of that value was packed into the same period during which Amaya was healthy and effective. Kelly batted .249/.333/.428 in a much more robust sample of 421 plate appearances. He got a de facto promotion from splitting time behind the plate to playing as regularly as your typical starter, and although that ate into his production as the season wore on, he stayed healthy and delivered what was needed. He was especially good defensively. Jed Hoyer and his staff have plenty of holes to fill and weaknesses to address as they try to build the 2026 Cubs and get to a second consecutive postseason. Because Kelly was so good and Amaya is still under team control, catcher will not be a priority for the front office this winter. Kelly and Amaya are likely to be the team's go-to options as the season begins. As good as they were in 2025, though, running it back with them next year carries a huge amount of risk. Even when healthy, Amaya has been a bit of a chameleon. He's talented and dedicated, but he's also a tinkerer—and his tools are volatile. Amaya was one of the first darlings of bat-tracking data for the Cubs, when that suite of data rolled out in 2024. As the first half of that season wore on, though, he lost bat speed, struggling to find ways to make consistent contact. He made a major swing and stance overhaul in the middle of that season, which yielded terrific results, but he came back in 2025 with yet another swing. Season Month Bat Speed Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) Depth in Box (in.) Dist. Off Plate (in.) 2023 July 73.5 26.7 12.4 -10.2 37.6 26.9 30.7 2023 August 74.0 29.0 10.2 -9.0 36.5 26.5 29.6 2023 September 73.5 27.7 8.0 -0.9 32.0 27.8 30.0 2024 April 72.9 32.0 9.3 -1.7 34.1 29.4 30.5 2024 May 72.4 29.8 9.6 -5.6 36.5 29.5 28.5 2024 June 71.8 31.4 9.1 -3.4 33.1 31.0 28.1 2024 July 73.5 34.0 8.4 -6.0 32.1 29.5 26.1 2024 August 73.8 32.0 7.0 -5.6 28.1 28.6 26.3 2024 September 73.1 31.1 5.7 -4.0 26.6 27.5 26.4 2025 April 72.1 34.6 11.7 -12.7 31.6 29.0 27.2 2025 May 72.4 35.5 10.0 -8.4 30.0 29.5 26.5 After getting more aggressive with his swing but letting the ball get deeper in the hitting zone before contact in the second half of 2024, Amaya gave up a little bit of those gains in swing speed to open 2025, as he reegineered his swing to be steeper and catch the ball farther in front of his body. He became more of a pull hitter and caught the ball with the bat working uphill more, which led to a much lower ground-ball rate and fed that surge in power marked neatly by the homer against the Dodgers. Had he stayed healthy, this version of Amaya probably would have hit 20 home runs, even in the limited playing time he was getting. He was a true and dangerous slugger, after years of being more of a slashing, balanced hitter and putting too many balls on the ground to tap into the value of his bat speed. Now, though, the question is whether that version of him will stick around. Each time he gets hurt (and even when he gets extended playing time without getting hurt), Amaya makes major changes to his process at the plate. By sticking with their existing catching corps, the Cubs are accepting substantial risk of regression. Kelly is likely due for some, given his age and track record. Amaya is, unavoidably, an enigma. He just had great success during a stint to open the season, but unfortunately, that's not a guarantee that he can (or will) come back in 2026 doing the same things. Still, it's smarter to make that bet than to spend some of their resources on that position this winter, so Amaya will be one of the most important players to watch in spring training and early-season play in 2026—and that's ok. View the full article

When the Twins signed Josh Bell, it was easy to shrug. This is not the kind of move that lights up the timeline or changes preseason projections overnight. Bell is a veteran switch-hitting first baseman on his fourth team in three years, and defensive metrics have not been kind to him. If you stop there, it is fair to wonder why the Twins would invest in a bat-first player at a position where defense has quietly become one of their biggest strengths. But this front office has earned a bit of trust when it comes to first base defense, and the way the Twins play the position goes a long way toward explaining why Josh Bell’s glove is not something to panic about. Over the past two seasons, the Twins have done some of their best defensive work at the cold corner, not because they suddenly discovered elite athletes, but because they found a way to simplify the job. Against left-handed hitters, in particular, the Twins have leaned heavily into aggressive positioning. The first baseman plays right on top of the line, and the second baseman shades over next to him. The goal is straightforward: Take away the pull-side ground balls that left-handed hitters most often produce, and reduce the amount of ground the first baseman has to cover. Carlos Santana is a clear example of how much this approach can matter. Santana had always been a solid defender, but he was not a perennial Gold Glove threat. In 2023 with Cleveland, he played close to the line against left-handed hitters 29% of the time. The result was a respectable but unspectacular -2 outs above average against lefties. In 2024 with the Twins, that number jumped dramatically. Santana played close to the line 53% of the time. With fewer balls sneaking down the line and less lateral ground to cover, Santana posted an impressive 13 outs above average against left-handed hitters. His athleticism and instincts mattered, but the positioning mattered just as much, and it was a major factor in Santana taking his defense to another level and ultimately winning a Gold Glove. The Twins put him in spots where he could succeed. They doubled down on that idea last season with Ty France, and the results were even more striking. In 2024, before joining the Twins, France played close to the line against left-handed hitters only 34 percent of the time and finished with -8 outs above average. After arriving in Minnesota in 2025, that number jumped to 86 percent. Suddenly, the same player with the same physical limitations turned into a plus defender, posting 7 outs above average. That shift in positioning played a significant role in France’s defensive turnaround and helped lead to him winning a Gold Glove, as well. The Twins did not make France faster or more agile. They made his job easier. That context matters when talking about Josh Bell. There's no way around it. Bell is not a good defensive first baseman. He is tall, thickly built, and slow-moving. He does not have great range, and the advanced metrics reflect that. Over the past three seasons, Bell has posted -2, -7, and -4 outs above average at first base. On a neutral team with neutral positioning, that is exactly the kind of profile that scares people off. But Bell’s usage against left-handed hitters suggests there is real room for improvement. From 2023 through 2025, Bell logged 231 defensive chances at first base against lefties. Of those, he played close to the line just 41 percent of the time. On those plays, he posted -9 outs above average. That is bad, but it also shows how rarely his teams committed to hiding his weaknesses. Compare that to what the Twins did with Santana and France, and the opportunity becomes obvious. Minnesota has shown a willingness to push that close-to-the-line rate north of 50 percent and even into the mid-80s, when the situation calls for it. If Bell’s alignment against left-handed hitters jumps anywhere near those levels, he will simply be asked to do less. Fewer hard grounders will sneak past him down the line, and fewer balls will require him to range deep into the hole. This is not about turning Josh Bell into a Gold Glove defender. That is not happening. It's about getting him closer to average by removing the plays he is least equipped to make. Bell does not need to be special defensively for this signing to work. He needs to catch what is hit at him, scoop throws in the dirt, and avoid being a liability. The Twins have already shown they know how to do that with players at this position. Ultimately, this signing is a bet on offense first. The Twins’ lineup badly needs quality at-bats, and first base has been a problem area for far too long. Outside of a couple of strong months from Carlos Santana in 2023, production from the position has been inconsistent at best. Bell brings switch-hitting power and a track record of getting on base, even if the peaks have been less frequent in recent years. Choosing a bat-first first baseman over a glove-first option makes sense, given where this roster is right now. The Twins do not need to win games 2-1. They need to score runs. If positioning can turn Josh Bell from a below-average defender into something closer to playable, the overall value equation starts to tilt in Minnesota’s favor. Bell is not a perfect player, and this is not a perfect signing. But the Twins have a clear blueprint for maximizing first base defense, and it has worked with multiple players who came with similar questions. If they follow that same playbook here, Bell’s glove should not overshadow what he is actually here to do. What do you think? Are you worried about Josh Bell’s defense, or do you trust the Twins to work their positioning magic again? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View the full article

Miguel Sanó is headed back to professional relevance, even if it comes on the other side of the world. According to Francys Romero, the Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball are finalizing a one-year deal with the former Minnesota Twins slugger, pending a physical. For a player who has spent the last few seasons bouncing on and off the margins of Major League rosters, this represents both a reset and a reward. Sanó has not appeared in a regular-season Major League game since being released by the Angels in July of 2024. Since then, he has returned home to the Dominican Republic, quietly rebuilding his value in winter ball. The results have been impossible to ignore. Across the most recent Dominican league season, Sanó slashed .315/.376/.663 (1.039) with nine home runs in just 24 games. That performance followed an .856 OPS campaign the previous winter, making this less of a fluke and more of a trend. For Twins fans, Sanó will always be a complicated figure. Signed as a teenager with generational power, he reached the big leagues quickly and delivered on that promise in bursts. He was an All-Star, posted multiple 30 home run seasons, and helped anchor lineups that regularly finished near the top of the American League in power. In just under 3,000 career plate appearances, Sanó launched 164 home runs and produced a .233/.325/.477 (.802) line with a 115 OPS+. The problem was never talent. Injuries derailed multiple seasons, strikeouts piled up at record-setting rates, and defensive limitations narrowed his paths to playing time. After an above-average showing in 2021, Sanó became a fringe option, appearing in just 48 total games between the Twins and Angels from 2022 through 2024. His last stint in the majors came in 28 games with Los Angeles. If that proves to be his final Major League chapter, Sanó still walks away with a respectable career résumé. But players do not sign seven-figure deals overseas because they are finished. They do it because someone still believes the bat can play. In this case, that belief was earned through dominance against professional pitching, not nostalgia. Nippon Professional Baseball has become a viable bridge back to MLB relevance for power hitters willing to adjust and prove themselves again. Sanó will be tested by a different pitching style and a more demanding daily routine. If the power carries over, the conversation changes quickly. Is a return to the big leagues likely? Probably not. But Miguel Sanó has made a career out of defying neat timelines. As long as the ball keeps leaving the yard, never say never. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a one-year deal with free-agent lefty Caleb Thielbar, a league source confirmed to North Side Baseball. The news was first reported by Jesse Rogers of ESPN, on Twitter. Thielbar, who will turn 39 in January, returns after a strong season as a setup man for the 2025 Cubs. More to come. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins appear close to formally announcing a partial sale that does not change who runs the franchise but meaningfully changes the math behind it. By selling just over 20% of the club at a reported valuation of $1.75 billion, the Pohlad family is positioning the organization to finally address debt that has lingered since the pandemic while also improving the team’s standing should a larger sale ever come back into focus. The structure of the deal matters. This is not a handoff of power or a succession plan in disguise. According to Dan Hayes, the new investors are limited partners with no path to control and no mechanism to force decisions. The Pohlad family remains firmly in charge, with league sources indicating Tom Pohlad will take on a larger role alongside Joe Pohlad. Three new seats will be added to the ownership advisory board, but the family’s authority remains intact. Where the change is real is on the balance sheet. Multiple sources have described the debt reduction tied to this deal as significant, and that word has been repeated intentionally. The Twins accumulated substantial debt over the last five seasons, driven by a combination of COVID disruptions, flat attendance and revenue losses tied to their television situation. Unlike many clubs, the Twins continued paying employees and minor league players during the shutdown, a decision that was laudable but expensive. The debt came on quickly and never truly came off. Attendance trends underline the problem. Target Field has not returned to its pre-pandemic levels despite a division title and multiple playoff appearances. Payroll reductions only intensified fan frustration, further limiting gate revenue. At the same time, the collapse of the regional sports network model cost the Twins tens of millions annually. Twins TV keeps games accessible, but it does not replace what was lost financially. That context helps explain why this deal took longer than expected and why interest grew rather than faded. Once the franchise made clear it was open to minority investment, more groups stepped forward. Instead of two limited partnerships, three ultimately formed, each purchasing smaller slices that required additional league approval. From the team’s perspective, more interest meant better terms and a cleaner exit from debt. The longer view is where this becomes more interesting. A Twins franchise with manageable debt looks very different to potential buyers in the late 2020s than one weighed down by pandemic era obligations. New national television deals arrive in 2029. Any labor uncertainty from the next collective bargaining agreement should be resolved. Franchise values almost certainly continue to rise. That future upside likely explains why none of the new investors demanded a roadmap to control. The appeal is growth, not governance. For now, the Pohlad family insists it is committed to owning the team, and several third generation members have expressed interest in staying involved. Still, this deal quietly restores optionality. Whether the Twins are ever sold outright remains an open question. What is clear is that the franchise has taken an important step toward financial stability, one that could eventually ripple onto the field. View the full article

The Royals extended Maikel García on Friday, signing him to a five-year contract worth a guaranteed $57.5 million. The agreement will buy out four years of club-controlled arbitration and one year of free agency, and contains a club option for an additional year. If the option is triggered, the value of the deal will climb to nearly $75 million over six years, and escalators could increase his salaries for 2030 and 2031, nudging the number toward $80 million. García had an outstanding 2025 season, winning the American League Gold Glove Award at third base and breaking out with a 121 wRC+ at the plate. The timing of his extension comes at an interesting time for the Milwaukee Brewers and their own Gold Glove-winning second baseman, Brice Turang. Like García, Turang is a superb defensive infielder who also had a breakout season at the plate. Like García, Turang is a Super Two qualifier and will be eligible for arbitration for the first of four times this winter. He's projected by Cot’s Contracts to earn $4.75 million in 2026, while García had been projected to earn $4.85 million. García and Turang have tracked closely at the plate over their major-league careers. Both players put up below-average batting lines in each of their first two seasons, with 11 total home runs for García and 13 for Turang. This season, however, both made major improvements in bat speed, Barrel rate and walk rate. García bumped from 70.8 MPH to 71.9 on his swings, while Turang had a massive jump from 66.2 all the way to 70.7, leading to both eclipsing their career home run totals in a single season, hitting 16 and 18, respectively. Their career WAR totals are more of a mixed bag, with FanGraphs favoring García and Baseball Reference favoring Turang. Coincidentally, both Garcia and Turang finished 14th in the 2025 MVP voting for their respective leagues. Player Age Service Time 2025 wRC+ 2025 WAR Career WAR Brice Turang 26.1 2.165 124 4.4f / 5.6br 6.8f / 11.8br Maikel García 25.8 2.68 121 5.6f / 5.8br 9.1f / 8br García’s contract is similar to the extension Matt Trueblood suggested for Turang when he wrote on the subject in October, which guaranteed Turang $55 million over the first five years, but had two additional guaranteed years and a mutual option for an eighth year. There is value in the shorter commitment in García’s new deal. With Turang’s stellar up-the-middle defense and emerging power, the team would likely gain a lot of surplus value by having Turang through the 2031 season, which should include the entire prime of his career. If Turang (or García, for that matter) is still performing at a high level when the contract ends, the team could then extend him the qualifying offer to either retain him for an additional year or gain draft pick compensation, without the upfront risk of guaranteeing the sixth and seventh years. Turang may have less incentive to sign an extension than García did, though. Turang was the Brewers' 2018 first-round draft pick and received a $3.41-million bonus, whereas García signed for less than $100,000 as an international amateur in 2016. They both received top-13 payouts from MLB’s Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool this year, with Turang receiving $1.16 million and García getting $774,000. (It’s interesting that MLB valued Turang’s season more highly, given that both WAR metrics gave García the edge.) If Turang and his agents are interested in an extension similar to García’s, the Brewers should jump at the chance to keep him through his age-31 season and secure one extra year of control with an option for a second. That said, Turang should probably ask for a higher average annual value than Garcia received, or be patient, because he will likely do better overall by betting on himself and going year-to-year in arbitration and becoming a free agent in four years, just as he turns 30. If the Brewers and Turang get together this offseason to discuss a longer-term commitment, García’s extension gives both sides a meaningful reference point to work from—and maybe it helps them get an extension done this winter. View the full article

At the 2025 trade deadline, the Padres traded shortstop Leo De Vries (a top-10 prospect in all of MLB) and pitchers Henry Baez, Braden Nett and Eduarniel Núñez to the A’s for fireballer closer Mason Miller and solid starter JP Sears. It was widely regarded as a high price for the Padres to pay, but Miller was (and is) considered one of the best closers in baseball. This past season, his 15.18 K/9 and average fastball velocity of 101.2 mph were both the highest in the majors by comfortable margins, and his Stuff+ of 123 was fifth best among pitchers with at least 50 IP (the highest Stuff+ in 2025? New Jay Tyler Rogers with 128!) Among the main selling points for Miller are his team control and cost. He has just under three years of service time and is not expected to become a free agent until after the 2029 season. He will be in his first year of arbitration in 2026, with a projected salary (per MLB Trade Rumors) in the $3.4 million range. That's cheap for a top closer. Miller certainly sounds like a keeper. But Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is unpredictable, so when rumours are being floated that he is in discussion with the Mets about a possible Miller deal, they can not be easily dismissed. But it raises the question: Should the Jays be in the Miller derby? Let’s start with the fit. A Blue Jays bullpen of Miller – Hoffman – Rogers – García – Varland – Lauer – Fluharty – Little (Ponce? Miles? Bastardo? Tiedemann?) would be one of the best (if not THE best) in baseball. And it would have the advantage of depth, with the top four all having closing experience. There is also a chance of Miller being converted back to a starting role, one he briefly held in his first season with the A's, putting up a very respectable 3.38 ERA and 3.49 xERA in four starts before suffering a UCL sprain. The Jays are said to be looking for arms "capable of starting". But stretching him out would be dangerous, given the stress that his extreme velocity places on his arm. His "mild" UCL sprain in 2023 led to a four-month stint on the injured list. The reward of trying to move him to the rotation might not outweigh the risk. So, what would the Padres be looking for in a Miller trade? Most writers agree that the Padres’ most immediate needs are two or three starting pitchers (with Dylan Cease lost and Yu Darvish hurt) and at least one power bat of the 1B/DH type (with Luis Arráez and Ryan O’Hearn both free agents). An uber-prospect to replace De Vries would also be welcome. The Jays do not have a prospect of De Vries’ calibre. As Trey Yesavage is likely off the table, the top prospect going back to the Padres would likely have to be Arjun Nimmala or JoJo Parker. For the first starting pitcher, the Jays might have to start with Eric Lauer. In 15 starts (74 IP) in 2025, he pitched to a 3.77 ERA. Alternatively, the Jays could offer José Berrós with cash to reduce his cost. For the additional pitcher(s), the Padres would likely expect arms with some MLB experience and upside, but with issues that would need to be resolved. Bowden Francis had a poor 2025, but in 13 starts (77 innings) in 2024, he had an outstanding 2.92 ERA and .221 OBP. Jake Bloss had Tommy John surgery in May 2025, but he was considered a top-100 prospect by FanGraphs before he went down, and he had a 3.18 ERA across the minors in 2024. And Ricky Tiedemann was ranked #22 on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list prior to the 2024 season. If the Jays did choose to include a slugger, it might make sense to discuss Anthony Santander (again, with a potential paydown). Santander had a poor 2025, largely due to injury, but from 2022-24, his 105 home runs were sixth in baseball, and his .234 ISO was top 20. If the Jays succeeded in signing Kyle Tucker, their outfield could be crowded (assuming Springer as the primary DH), with Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider, Joey Loperfido, and Myles Straw all competing for the remaining two outfield spots. And Santander projects better as a DH, which would perfectly fit San Diego’s needs. So, suppose the deal were Nimmala/Parker + Lauer/Berrios+$$$/Tiedemann + Bloss/Francis? Would the Padres accept? Or what if the Jays offered Francis + Berríos + Santander + $$$, possibly with an additional prospect? The Bottom Line It is always dangerous paying top dollar – whether in cash or in player capital – for a top reliever, as their performance can be unpredictable and inconsistent. But in Miller’s case, the talent is unquestionable. Is it high enough, and does a player who only pitches about 60 innings a year merit, the very high price the Jays would have to pay? View the full article

During last week’s Winter Meetings, MLB.com’s Matthew Leach posted an interesting response to a question posed to him on BlueSky on whether the Minnesota Twins will pursue a strong defensive middle infielder this offseason, stating the following: Admittedly, this level of aggregation on my end is a little alarming, and I should maybe reflect on how much time I spend on social media sifting through updates on the Twins' offseason plans. Personal ruminations aside, though, Leach’s response provides some insight into the club’s plan behind projected starting shortstop Brooks Lee early next season. Right now, Ryan Fitzgerald and Ryan Kreidler are the favorites to compete for the backup shortstop role. Based on Leach’s response, however, Kreidler appears to have the inside track on Fitzgerald heading into spring training. Hitting .138/.208/.176 with an 11 wRC+ over a combined 211 plate appearances the past four seasons, Kreidler has been one of the worst hitters in baseball over the course of his career. The 29-year-old struggles to make contact, evidenced by an alarming 31.8% strikeout rate and 33.1% whiff rate on swings over his career. When the right-handed veteran does make contact, it is often weak, yielding a lackluster 28.3% Hard-hit rate and 5.5% Barrel rate during that stretch. Those who follow Minnesota shouldn’t expect Kreidler’s hitting profile to dramatically improve in 2026. New hitting coach Keith Beauregard did work with Kreidler for a time while he was in Detroit, and Kreidler did dramatically increase his swing speed and tilt in 2025, so progress isn't out of the question, but it can't be presumed. The track record is not on Kreidler's side. Luckily, an offensive renaissance won’t be required for the former top prospect to provide value. Throughout his four-season major league career, Kreidler’s calling card has been his defensive versatility. He's played 253 1/3 innings at shortstop, 139 1/3 innings at third base, 120 1/3 innings in center field, 38 at second base, and one in left field. The speedy defender played exclusively in center for Detroit last season. However, he has performed the best at shortstop over his career, generating 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) over 125 attempts at the position. Kreidler has succeeded at the two non-catcher positions highest on the defensive spectrum (shortstop and center field) by utilizing his plus range and adequate arm. Those traits have also translated to success at second and third base, resulting in him developing into a utility player. Lee improved as a defensive shortstop late last season. His improvements could translate into more sustained success at the position in 2026. However, Kreidler is a superior defender at the position, providing Minnesota with an adequate backup. Despite James Outman and Alan Roden being likely to start the season on the 26-man roster, Kreidler could also serve as one of Byron Buxton’s primary backups in center field; as Royce Lewis’s backup at third base; and as a complementary rotational piece at second base, alongside Luke Keaschall, Kody Clemens, and Austin Martin, adding to his defensive flexibility. He's a plus on the bases, for a team hoping to get faster and more athletic in both run creation and run prevention. Again, Kreidler has hit 89% worse than league average over his 211 plate appearances in the majors. If he could modestly improve his wRC+ to the 60-to-70 range next season, however, the fringe major leaguer could provide significant value to the Twins on the bases and in the field, being a plus defender at the two positions highest on the defensive spectrum. Since the team is choosing bat-first options at several key defensive positions, even a glove-only utility man off the bench is important. View the full article

There was a time when the San Diego Padres having an interest in Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. would've created a buzz across the landscape of Major League Baseball. After all, a center fielder with MVP-caliber upside is exactly the type of swing for which A.J. Preller has become known. Unfortunately for both Robert and the Padres, that time has since passed. Not that that's stopped the Padres, who are reported to be among the teams interested in acquiring Robert (along with the Phillies, Mets, and Pirates). But despite that rumored interest, such a pursuit would be a tough one for Preller to sell. That tough sell exists on multiple levels, too. Whether you're looking at the on-paper fit, the payroll fit, or the fit up against a variety of needs on the current roster, it doesn't seem a particularly worthwhile addition for San Diego. To say nothing of Robert's sharp decline in performance since he posted a 4.9 fWAR season back in 2023. It's all part of a rather puzzling motive on the part of Preller, assuming this interest is legitimate. From a roster standpoint, the Padres have their outfield for 2026 set. Robert's spot in center field is occupied for the long-term by Jackson Merrill, who still posted a 3.0 fWAR season despite battling through multiple injuries. Right field is spoken for in the form of Fernando Tatis Jr, also in the long term. While left field doesn't have the type of projectable stability that the other two spots have, Ramón Laureano is poised to handle full-time duty under his club option for next year. Barring a trade of one of the three (two of which would be shocking), you're not really going to have a spot open for Robert. And given that he's still a quality defender, he's not the type of player you're going to deploy as a remotely full-time designated hitter. You could, perhaps, make an argument for Laureano serving as a rotational fourth outfielder while Robert slides into left. Such a move would greatly enhance the team's depth on the bench. It wouldn't be an illogical path for Preller in that sense. However, the second caveat of their interest makes such a path still unlikely. Robert is set to play next year at a $20 million price point, with a club option for the same in 2027. Roster Resource has the Padres currently projected to carry a $201 million payroll next season. That's a shade under the $211 million at which they finished last year, with the team expected to linger around the same number for 2026. Without the White Sox eating at least half the money owed to Robert, you're not staying at or under that number. Let alone the myriad additions this team still has to make to fill out the rotation and the bench beyond acquiring Robert. And those other needs shouldn't be overlooked in all of this, either. Acquiring Robert would represent more of a luxury as opposed to necessities that exist elsewhere on the roster. The team is without roughly 60% of a legitimate rotation and doesn't feature much support in terms of infield depth. Unless it were in the face of a Laureano trade that sets you up in either of those other areas, it becomes difficult to justify such a move when those glaring needs on the roster still exist. Ultimately, though, the reason that the sell becomes difficult is due to the fact that you're talking about a player who has fallen off a cliff in terms of production. Robert turned in that near-five WAR campaign in 2023 on the heels of a 38-homer, 129 wRC+ season. In the two subsequent years, however, he's gone for an average ISO of just .148 and a wRC+ of 84. Even with some defensive value still in the tank, there just hasn't been much on which to hang his hat with the bat. And that's on top of continued health issues, as Robert appeared in just 210 games between the two years. Even if one wanted to make a case that change of scenery from Chicago's South Side worked wonders for Gavin Sheets, this is a much larger gamble. You're not talking about a player coming in on a non-guaranteed contract, but one that would eat up a significant portion of the already-limited flexibility this team has. It's just too many factors to be ignored, and they all add up to a fairly questionable prospective pursuit. View the full article

In this episode of the Crown Cast, Kevin recaps the Royals’ moves, including trading for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, the extension to Maikel Garcia, and also looks at a couple of outfielders that could be trade targets for the Royals this winter to help round out the 2026 lineup. View the full article

Approaching the midpoint of the Miami Marlins offseason, Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout empty the notebook following their on-site coverage of the 2025 Winter Meetings. Fish Unfiltered takes you behind the scenes of the MLB Draft Lottery and Rule 5 draft, analyzes Miami's signing of Christopher Morel (expected to be made official this week) and checks in on notable transactions from around the National League East. You can find Fish Unfiltered on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, The Offishial Show, Swimming Upstream and more. Follow Isaac (@IsaacAzout), Kevin (@kevin_barral) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View the full article

Luis Arraez has the highest batting average among active MLB players. His .317 is 14 points higher than the next highest, Jose Altuve’s .303 average. There isn’t another player over .300. Arraez also registered the lowest strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn in 1995, retired on strikes in just 21 of his 620 at-bats (3.1%). And he might have been in the Twins’ range before the Josh Bell signing. Jon Becker of FanGraphs compiles public estimates for free agents, and Arraez’s mean contract is $10.25 million annually. Estimates are split between Arraez getting a one- or two-year contract, ranging from $8.5 million to $15 million per year, which could fit into the Twins’ budget for upgrading first base. But this isn’t about why the Twins could sign Arraez. It’s about why they didn't. And it’s not because batting average doesn’t matter. Put succinctly, it’s because he hasn’t played like the player the Twins traded away in years. Between 2019 and 2023 (his first year in Miami following the trade that brought Pablo López to Minnesota), Arraez slashed .326/.379/.427, and his .806 OPS was 22% above league-average. This season, he was just league-average, slashing .292/.327/.392. If you’ve been following Arraez at all, you probably know that his batting average dipped this season. But there’s more going on here than bad luck. There’s bad process. Yes, even with one of the highest batting averages in baseball, and one of the best strikeout rates in the past 50 years, Arraez’s plate appearances are not good. It almost seems as if he’s focused all of his energy into not striking out, ignoring all other aspects of a good approach. Some of this regression can be seen in his ability to draw a walk. Arraez has never hunted walks, but he sat around league-average as a Twin between 2019 and 2022, walking 8.7% of the time. When combined with his .314 batting average in Minnesota, Arraez got to flirt with a .400 OBP. That went out the window in Miami in 2023, but his .354 average made up for that loss in walks, as he still got on base 39.3% of the time. Since then, though, he’s had a .337 OBP between 2024 and 2025, which is about 8% above the league average during that time. A slightly above average OBP is good, but paired with a roughly league-average .392 slugging percentage (35 points lower than it was during the first five years of his career), the overall production doesn’t match the sexy batting average. Within and beyond his ability to draw a walk lies another issue: his swing decisions. Yes, Arraez isn’t striking out. But that doesn’t mean he’s taking good plate appearances. In Minnesota, he chased pitches outside the strike zone about 23% of the time, far better than league-average. Since leaving, he’s swung at about 34% of pitches outside the zone, nearly 50% more often and much worse than league-average. Put another way, for every two balls he swung at outside the zone in Minnesota, he’s swung at three since. He has a remarkable ability to make contact with pitches, even outside of the strike zone, and he’s gotten better at it with age, going from about making contact with balls outside of the zone 86% of the time in Minnesota to 91% in Miami and San Diego. He’s also making more contact with strikes, going from 95% in Minnesota to setting a career-high 97.3% this year. But also, he just set his career low for swings on strikes, at 60%. So he swung at a career-high percent of pitches outside of the zone, but he also swung at a career-low number of pitches inside the zone. That’s not supposed to happen. As he has been making more contact, his batting average has gone down. And pitchers are throwing him more strikes in the process. In Minnesota, 50% of the pitches he saw were strikes, whereas it’s been 55% since 2023. I just threw a bunch of numbers at you, so here’s something else. Remember Willians Astudillo? La Tortuga? Well, Arraez seems to have a bit of the La Tortuga disease, where because he’s a guy who can put wood on anything, he’s putting a lot of pitches he probably shouldn’t be swinging at in play, and poorly. But then you add into that equation that he’s also swinging at fewer strikes than he ever has. It’s perplexing. And it bears out in the quality of his contact. Arraez has the slowest swing speed in the league, and he’s consistently at the bottom of the league in hitting the ball hard, but over the past two years, he’s almost become a caricature of himself. You don’t need to hit the ball hard to get hits. Arraez has mastered the art of dropping one into the shallow outfield. But you need to get at least a little speed off the bat to have good contact. It won’t surprise you to learn, after reading all of that above, that Arraez just hit line drives at the lowest rate of his career and grounders at the second-highest rate of his career. He made much more soft contact in the last couple of seasons than he did in the first five, and he made much less hard contact (naturally). Arraez’s batting average on balls in play has dropped quite remarkably, too. It was .343 through his first five years, and it’s been .307 since. Some of that is luck, but BABIP can be sticky, especially for a player like Arraez who specializes in putting the ball exactly where it needs to go to get a hit. And the ball hasn’t. Arraez’s swing decisions are getting worse. His quality of contact is getting worse. And his back of the baseball card stats are getting worse because of that. Add to that the fact that Arraez is, at this point, a first baseman or DH, with the ability to fill in at second if absolutely needed (he started three times the number of games as a DH as he did as a second baseman last year, ceding those opportunities to a roughly average defender in Jake Cronenworth). And he’s a poor defensive first baseman by most metrics. And he’s an average runner at best. I’ll make one concession, one sed contra to the title of this article. He made better decisions in Minnesota. He made better contact. He had a higher batting average. If they know what’s wrong with him and how to fix it, and if everyone else in the league knows what you now know, if they’re all scared off by his slipping performance, then sure. Maybe they could have made him a lowball offer and try to fix him. Even in his current form, he would have outperformed most of the internal options at first base and DH. But he’s not someone to get in a bidding war over, chasing that .320 average dragon. There are other options. View the full article

It was a big week for the Royals, with transactions and upgrades to their outfield. Not only did they sign former Guardians outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal, but they also acquired Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins (as well as reliever Nick Mears) in a trade for lefty reliever Angel Zerpa. Adding Thomas and Collins gives the Royals much-needed depth at a position they struggled with in 2025. According to Fangraphs, Kansas City's outfielders ranked last in fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). At the very least, Thomas and Collins should help boost the Royals' outfield on both the offensive and defensive ends next season, especially if they're completely healthy. That said, it doesn't seem like the Royals are completely done adding to the outfield this offseason. According to Ken Rosenthal, Kansas City remains interested in acquiring Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. However, the Royals are not willing to trade away two-time Opening Day starter Cole Ragans to make that trade a reality. There's still plenty of time in the winter for a deal between the Red Sox and Royals to happen. However, why are the Royals so eager to acquire Duran, why are they not willing to include Ragans, and will a deal happen before pitchers and catchers report in late February? Let's break down those questions individually to determine whether a Duran-to-Kansas City deal will be realistic this offseason. Duran Gives the Royals the Middle-of-the-Order Bat They Need The Royals' lineup got better with the Thomas and Collins acquisitions, but it's likely that both those bats will be better utilized at the bottom of the batting order instead of the top or middle. According to Roster Resource's projected 2026 Royals depth chart, Collins is projected to play left field and bat eighth. As for Thomas, he's expected to be a platoon bench player, likely with Kyle Isbel or Jac Caglianone. Regardless of who he plays for, it is likely that Thomas will bat in the 8th or 9th hole in the batting order. That still leaves a bit of a gap in the middle of the lineup with Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey projected to hit 5th, 6th, and 7th, respectively. All three of those hitters posted wRC+ marks under 90, and Massey and Caglianone sported marks under 60. Duran, on the other hand, posted a 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances last year. Furthermore, Depth Charts projects that Duran will post a 107 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR in 2026. His wRC+ projection is better than India's (102), Massey's (89), Thomas's (92), and Collins's (104). Conversely, his wRC+ is projected to lag behind fellow Red Sox outfielders like Roman Anthony (122), Wilyer Abreu (114), and Masataka Yoshida (110). Furthermore, Romy Gonzalez (104) and Kristian Campbell (100) aren't far behind, and they can play outfield if needed. Thus, the Royals may need Duran more than the Red Sox need their 29-year-old former All-Star. Duran does have the combination of defensive versatility and skills to succeed as an everyday left fielder for the Royals in 2026 and beyond (he won't be a free agent until 2029). When it comes to his Stacast profile, the Boston outfielder can be a bit free-swinging. Still, the exit velocity metrics illustrate that Duran has the hitting ability to succeed in Kauffman Stadium. While Isbel has been great defensively, he only posted a 79 wRC+ and is only projected to put up an 87 wRC+, according to Depth Charts' projections. That puts him behind not only Duran but also Collins, Thomas, and Massey. Hence, if Collins could adjust to Kauffman's spacious dimensions, he could steal some time away from Isbel or push Caglianone into more designated hitter duty. That could allow Duran to play left field every day if the Royals can find a way to bring him to Kansas City. Acquiring Duran not only makes the Royals a candidate to return to the postseason, but also a team that could win the Central and compete for an AL Pennant in 2026, especially if he's batting in the five-hole (which moves Caglianone down in the order and takes some pressure off him at the plate). Why the Royals Won't Part With Ragans Early on in the offseason, there were rumors that the Royals were willing to trade away Ragans to acquire a player of Duran's caliber. However, at the Winter Meetings, Picollo seemed committed to keeping their ace in Kansas City for at least next season. It certainly wasn't Ragans' best season last year, as a shoulder injury limited him to just 61.2 IP. Furthermore, his ERA was mediocre for his standards at 4.67. That said, he still posted a 14.30 K/9, the best mark of Royals starters last year, and a 2.1 fWAR, the third-best mark of Royals pitchers (only Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic posted better marks). In addition, Ragans' TJ Stuff+, as well as chase and whiff metrics, were elite, despite the small sample. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. All of Ragans' metrics rated as slightly above or clearly above-average, including TJ Stuff+ (104), zone% (51.7%), chase% (29.8%), whiff% (34.6%), and xwOBACON (.362). Thus, it's not a surprise that Ragans' 2.50 FIP was 2.27 points lower than his ERA. If Ragans pitched more innings, his ERA would likely've been closer to the 3.14 mark he posted in 2024 or the 3.47 mark in 2023. The 28-year-old is also projected favorably in early projection models so far. Depth Charts projects Ragans to post a 3.23 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 29.7% K%, and 4.3 fWAR in 172 IP next season. That's the second-best projection of any Royals player next year (only Bobby Witt Jr. is higher at 6.9), and it's 1.7 fWAR better than Duran. Thus, a straight-up trade for Duran would be an overpay by Kansas City, even with Ragans' injury history and their dire need for a middle-of-the-order bat that can preferably play in the outfield. Can the Royals and Red Sox Get a Deal Done (With Bubic as the Centerpiece)? Trading Duran makes sense for the Red Sox, especially considering the depth they have in the outfield and the lack of solid starting pitching, even after the acquisition of Sonny Gray from St. Louis. While Gray and Garrett Crochet are a solid one-two punch, Bryan Bello is a bit of a wild card (4.19 FIP and 1.9 fWAR in 2025), and Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, projected to be the fourth and fifth pitchers in the rotation, didn't throw a pitch last year due to injury. If the Red Sox don't want to throw any prospects or additional players in a Duran deal, they could settle on Kris Bubic, who's entering his last year of team control. The Royals' lefty made his first All-Star team and posted a 2.55 ERA and 3.3 fWAR in 116.1 IP last season. Unfortunately, he missed most of the second half due to a shoulder injury that was similar to Ragans'. Thus, after missing nearly all of 2023 due to Tommy John and the second half of last year, it makes sense why teams, including the Red Sox, may be squeamish on acquiring Bubic. Still, projections are pretty optimistic about Bubic for 2026. Depth Charts projects Bubic to post a 3.80 ERA, 3.83 FIP, and 2.4 fWAR in 155 IP. That's only a 0.2 fWAR difference from Duran, and his fWAR projection would make him Boston's third-best starter in 2026. I also think Depth Charts' projections are underselling his strikeout ability next season. They are projecting a 22.5% K% next year, and I think he's capable of surpassing that based on what he showed in TJ Stuff+ and other metrics last year, via TJ Stats. When looking at his TJ Stats summary, his profile compares quite similarly to Ragans, with all of his categories rating either slightly above or better. That includes TJ Stuff+ (103), zone% (51.9%), chase% (32.4%), whiff% (28.8%), and xwOBACON (.344). When comparing Ragans' and Bubic's TJ Stats Summaries side by side, Ragans has the better velocity. However, Bubic was better at inducing less productive contact (xwOBACON) and generating better extension on his pitches. The Red Sox may reconsider their impression of Bubic. The Royals may be willing to trade not only Bubic to Boston but also include another relief pitcher or a 10-15th-ranked prospect in the deal for Duran alone. However, if the Red Sox are adamant about getting Ragans, Boston will likely have to throw something significant with Duran, whether it's on the player or prospect end (and even then, that may not be enough for Kansas City). It will be interesting to see if Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is willing to settle for Bubic in a possible trade for Duran. Such a concession may be a win-win for both teams, with the Red Sox obviously having the payroll to afford a Bubic extension if he can get back to his All-Star self in 2026. Unfortunately, it feels likely that a lot of time has to pass, as well as other pitching options have to come off the market, whether through free agency or trade, for Breslow and the Red Sox to concede to Picollo and Kansas City and choose Bubic over Ragans as the return in a Duran trade. View the full article

After the way that the 2025 season ended, the Boston Red Sox entered the offseason with the thought of improving not just their current starting rotation, but also the quality of their major-league depth. By the end of August, the team needed to call upon top pitching prospects such as Payton Tolle and Connelly Early to provide important innings for the team down the stretch. Craig Breslow understood he needed to bring in more major-league pitching to help ease the burden for the young pitchers, and hence, the Red Sox's starting pitching depth is much deeper than it was just a few months ago. While the team may make more moves before the offseason is over, if they were to open the 2026 season with the current crop of pitchers on the roster, it's hard to argue they haven't significantly upgraded. With that in mind, let's look at the current state of their starting pitching and go over those who could open the year in the rotation and those who will be waiting in Triple-A as depth. Locks for the Red Sox's rotation: Garrett Crochet: 32 starts, 18-5 record, 2.59 ERA, 205 1/3 innings, 255 strikeouts There isn’t much to say about Crochet that Sox fans don’t already know about. He was even better than many expected when he was first acquired, as he put together a great first season as Boston’s ace. Making his second All-Star team, finishing second for the Cy Young Award and placing eighth in MVP voting, Crochet proved that he was exactly what Boston needed in a frontline starter. He’ll be penciled in at the top of the rotation for 2026 as the team and fans both wait in excitement to see how his second season in Boston unfolds. Sonny Gray: 32 starts, 14-8 record, 4.28 ERA, 180 2/3 innings, 201 strikeouts Gray, who was acquired in a trade that sent Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke back to St. Louis, is a veteran pitcher who will be entering his 14th season in the league. Pitching for a year and a half in New York, he has experience in the AL East, and in 2023 was an All-Star while with Minnesota. Despite his numbers not looking great with the Cardinals, Gray was a very valuable pitcher as he racked up strikeouts and gave them competitive innings. When looking at his expected ERA and expected FIP, it’s clear that he was the recipient of a bit of bad luck (his BABIP was .329). Gray, however, worked around it with a strikeout rate of 26.7% and limited free passes (5% walk rate). He may no longer be a No. 2 starter, but he'll be a rock in the middle of the rotation in 2026. Brayan Bello: 29 appearances, 28 Starts, 11-9 record, 3.35 ERA, 166 2/3 innings, 124 strikeouts Last year was a season of two stories for Bello, as he looked like a dominant number two for a good portion of the campaign, and at other times looked like a fringe number four or five starter. Bello’s season truly took off in June and he kept the momentum up through the end of August, where through 16 appearances he would go 8-5 while allowing just 30 earned runs across 101 2/3 innings pitched. With the addition of Gray, Bello should be able to slot into the rotation as the number three starter and build off of a career season. The hope is that Bello won’t show up to spring training behind schedule like he has since 2023 and instead will break camp with the team. Bello’s change in pitch usage in 2025 helped with his improvement, and an offseason of working on the five-pitch repertoire (made up of his sinker, sweeper, changeup, fastball and a cutter he began using in 2025) should be helpful for the 26-year-old. Likely in the rotation: Johan Oviedo: 9 starts, 2-1 record, 3.57 ERA, 40 1/3 innings, 42 strikeouts Oviedo was acquired right before the Winter Meetings in a trade that saw Jhostynxon Garcia shipped to Pittsburgh, and the right-hander should be a lock for the rotation barring any additional moves. Not turning 28 until March, Oviedo has been pitching in the majors since the 2020 season with St. Louis. Missing the entire 2024 season due to injury, Oviedo made his return to the mound and made nine starts for the Pirates where he flashed some tantalizing potential. Standing at 6-foot-6, Oviedo checks off many boxes that the Red Sox love in pitchers between his size, his elite extension and a fastball that could make him a key piece of the rotation. Our own @Jack Lindsay recently wrote about Oviedo’s fastball and the importance it could play on his 2026 season. The key will be keeping the hulking right-hander healthy through a full season. Kutter Crawford (2024 season:) 33 starts, 9-16 record, 4.36 ERA, 183 2/3 innings, 175 strikeouts Crawford was expected to be a key piece of the backend of the rotation in 2025, but a series of injuries kept him from pitching a single game. What started as a right knee injury that had occurred during the 2024 season later turned into a wrist injury while he was working towards a rehab assignment in June. It was revealed that he tore the sub sheath in his wrist and needed surgery that ended his season. He should be fully healthy by spring training and will be a welcome addition to the rotation. Along with health, the biggest question mark for Crawford will be how he handles a large workload, as in 2024 he appeared to hit a wall once his innings began to increase, especially in August and September. His second half numbers in 2024 saw his ERA jump from 3.00 in his first 20 starts to 6.59 across his final 13 along with 20 home runs allowed in just 69 2/3 innings. Patrick Sandoval (2024 season): 16 starts, 2-8 record, 5.08 ERA, 79 2/3 innings, 81 strikeouts Much like Crawford, Sandoval missed the entire 2025 season as he recovered from a torn UCL that required an internal brace surgery that took place mid-2024. The Red Sox signed him with the hope he could be ready for the end of the 2025 season and then pitch for the full 2026 season, but his rehab stalled and he did not pitch at all this year. Nevertheless, Sandoval pitched better in 2024 than his numbers showed, as his expected ERA (4.25) was nearly a run lower than his actual mark. Where Sandoval succeeded was his ability to limit hard contact, with his average exit velocity sitting at 87.9 mph and batters managing to barrel up his pitches just 5.1% of the time. The left-hander relies on a six-pitch repertoire that changes drastically depending on the hitter; it will be interesting to see how Andrew Bailey and company handles such a diverse pitch mix. Likely to open in Triple-A Hunter Dobbins: 13 appearances, 11 starts, 4-1 record, 4.13 ERA, 61 innings, 45 strikeouts Dobbins, who made his major-league debut in 2025, was a big presence in the rotation once he got called up to fill in for the injured Richard Fitts. Dobbins would be optioned from Boston to the minor leagues and recalled as needed, but remained with the team from May 3 through June 20 where he would make 10 appearances for the team and allow 24 earned runs across 48 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, his season ended early after tearing his ACL in his right knee after an awkward landing while covering first base. Dobbins has already resumed throwing down at Fort Myers and is hoping to be ready for the start of the 2026 season. Though with the additions of Gray and Oviedo, it’s likely the team will have him begin the season in Triple-A instead of rushing him back. Payton Tolle: 7 appearances, 3 starts, 0-1 record, 16 1/3 innings, 19 strikeouts Tolle had quite the season, as he burst onto the scene in High-A Greenville. It didn’t stop there, as he quickly moved through Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester before making his major-league debut against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates near the end of August. Armed with a powerful fastball, the piglet dazzled in his debut but didn’t see the same success for the remainder of the season. On an innings limit, Tolle made two shortened starts before getting moved to the bullpen where he had mixed results. Tolle’s fastball is more than ready for the majors, but if he wants to pitch to his potential, he will need to develop competitive secondary offerings. It was likely Tolle would always open the 2026 season in Triple-A to work on those other offerings, but the additions of Gray and Oviedo allow the Red Sox to give Tolle more time to develop. Connelly Early: 4 starts, 1-2 record, 2.33 ERA, 19 1/3 innings, 29 strikeouts It’s likely Early opens the 2026 season in Boston after his showing down the stretch where he helped lift a depleted Boston rotation. Though, there is also a chance the 23-year-old spends the beginning of the season in Triple-A due to the amount of depth the team has accumulated. While his fastball averaged just 93.7 mph last season, Early was able to get the most out of it thanks to his assortment of secondary offerings, as he relied on his curveball, changeup, sinker, slider and sweeper to make batters uncomfortable and ruin their timing. Against left-handed batters, his curveball and changeup were nearly non-existent, as he relied heavily on his sinker and sweeper while pairing them with his fastball and slider. It was the opposite for right-handed batters, as his sweeper was not used once while his cutter, changeup and fastball were the main pitches he attacked with. That plan of attack could pay dividends with some more fine tuning. Will be in the Triple-A Rotation but could see time in the MLB bullpen Tyler Uberstine (Portland Sea Dogs/Worcester Red Sox): 25 appearances, 21 starts, 6-5 record, 3.58 ERA, 120 2/3 innings, 137 strikeouts Uberstine was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster back in November, but his time in Worcester (that yielded 102 strikeouts in 91 innings) impressed the organization enough to protect him. Armed with a fastball that tops out at 95 mph and has above-average spin rate, he’s able to miss bats. He also has a slider, changeup, and cutter. He used to have a curveball but did not use it much in 2024 after his return from Tommy John surgery. Uberstine should be able to fill the roll Fitts and Dobbins had as a shuttle-arm between Triple-A and Boston. Very competitive, Uberstine will leave everything out on the mound which Red Sox fans should love. Luis Perales (Portland Sea Dogs/Worcester Red Sox): 3 appearances, 1 start, 7.71 ERA, 2 1/3 innings, 4 strikeouts Perales, who at one point was Boston’s top pitching prospect, returned to the mound late in the 2025 season after suffering a torn UCL in his right elbow during the 2024 season. Appearing in just three games, Perales showed how rusty he was after missing over a year. While he did not surrender a hit, he did walk three batters in just 2 1/3 innings. Though, his return also saw an increase in velocity, as his fastball now hit triple digits and he struck out four batters. To make up for the missed time, Perales pitched in the Arizona Fall League where he made six starts and was named a Fall-Star thanks in part to his triple-digit fastball and 19 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. Whether Perales stays in the rotation or moves to the bullpen is yet to be seen, though he should be expected to open the season in the rotation for Worcester due to his potential alone. Should Perales stay healthy, he should be up in Boston before the end of the 2026 season. David Sandlin (Portland Sea Dogs/Worcester Red Sox): 32 appearances, 14 starts, 9-6 record, 4.50 ERA, 106 innings, 107 strikeouts Sandlin’s role within the organization is currently unknown. While he had been developed as a starter for his entire career until his promotion to Triple-A Worcester, the team transitioned him to the bullpen with the idea of getting him up to Boston at some point in 2025. His time in Worcester’s bullpen did not go well, though, and such a promotion never materialized. However, he did show a lot of improvement while in Portland, managing to go deeper into games while relying less on strikeouts. Sandlin was added to the 40-man roster in November and is likely to play a role at some point in 2026 with the major-league club. Armed with a fastball that tops out at 99 mph in-game and a slider that has been shown to have bat-missing ability, Sandlin should be able to perform well either in the rotation or out of the bullpen once the team decides on the best course of action. Shane Drohan (Greenville Drive/Worcester Red Sox): 15 appearances, 14 starts, 5-2 record, 3.00 ERA, 54 innings, 77 strikeouts Drohan was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster in November, as the left-hander had previously been taken in the Rule 5 Draft by the Chicago White Sox before being returned to Boston. The 2024 campaign saw him deal with injuries, but 2025 led to a return to form. However, he did not go deep into games and would often tire out around the fourth inning if he made it that far. Due to injuries and stamina concerns, he may be best utilized in either a bulk reliever role or an opener giving the team multiple innings before handing the ball off to the rest of the bullpen. Drohan throws four pitches: a fastball that tops out at 96 mph, a changeup that fades down and away from right-handed batters, a curveball that he has solid feel for, and a cutter that is most effective when he can get it on the inner part of the plate against right-handed batters. He's probably the least likely bet to pitch for the Sox at some point in 2026, but the talent is there if opportunity comes knocking. View the full article

On Fish Unfiltered, Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout discuss how Christopher Morel potentially fits with the 2026 Marlins and why it'll be easier to grade the signing later this offseason.View the full article

As the days following the Winter Meetings unfolded, all indications pointed toward the Toronto Blue Jays following through on their desire to pick up a big-time free agent reliever. One by one, the chips had begun to fall, with Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams coming off the market before the epicenter of the baseball world shifted to Orlando. Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez followed earlier this week. The anticipation finally subsided north of the border on Friday with the news of submariner Tyler Rogers inking a three-year, $37 million deal. On Saturday afternoon, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal revealed the terms of a vesting option for 2029 that would pay Rogers an additional $12 million if he pitches either 110 combined games between 2027 and 2028 or 60 games in 2028. Since his debut in August 2019, Rogers has not pitched fewer than 68 games in a full season. He will be 38 by the time the 2029 season rolls around, so that vesting option is essentially the Blue Jays telling him he'll be rewarded with another year if he keeps doing what he's been doing by the time he's within striking distance of 40 years old. Buckle up: The jokes and fan activation opportunities that come from Rogers sharing a last name with his new team's ownership conglomerate are soon to rain down on all of us. They might be easy to stomach, though, because (Tyler) Rogers is a very good pitcher who immediately makes this bullpen stronger. He has a 2.76 ERA and 3.31 FIP for his career, easily better than Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Louis Varland, and any notable external addition the Shapiro/Atkins regime has made to the bullpen since the pandemic (with all due respect to those guys, who should form one of the better units in the league next year). At no point during this recent stretch of Blue Jays baseball has there been a relief pitcher with a track record as consistently good as Rogers'. He was working on his second consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA when he was traded from the Giants to the Mets this past deadline, and ended up finishing with a sub-2.00 ERA while leading the NL in appearances for the fourth time in six years. Now that we've established some of what Rogers is, I'm going to mention one key thing that he isn't, because it provides some crucial context that is necessary to make sense of this deal: He was not the Blue Jays' first choice in the free agent relief market. According to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, the team was actively courting Robert Suarez before he signed with Atlanta, and Rogers was their pivot in the event Suarez signed elsewhere. This news comes about a month after they reportedly met with Edwin Díaz's agents at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. With a strong crop of free agent bullpen arms this year, there are certainly more traditional "stuff-ists" that could prove to be more of a bargain than Rogers. For how disappointing the results were for Devin Williams in 2025, he still struck out 35% of batters and maintained elite peripherals, he is still just a year removed from being widely considered a top-two closer in the game, and he signed for a considerably cheaper commitment than Díaz. The Detroit Tigers transformed Kyle Finnegan post-deadline and retained him on a two-year deal worth less than $20 million total. Brad Keller, who only just turned 30, is still available after a dominant season in Chicago. Still, league-wide demand for high-leverage relievers is enough that every established name on the market has been getting multi-year deals, even the ones coming off down years. Rogers, like Suarez, will be 35 on opening day, and giving a three-year deal to a 35-year-old reliever isn't the best idea in a vacuum. However, I would much rather give him three years than Suarez, mostly because of something alluded to earlier: His durability. Rogers has not been on the injured list since 2015, and he leads relievers in both innings pitched and appearances over the past five years. Suarez also relies on elite velocity, sitting 98-99 mph on both his fastball and his sinker. This could become problematic if he continues to rely on both pitches a combined three-quarters of the time and loses some firepower on the wrong side of age 35. Rogers, a submarine pitcher who has maxed out in the mid-80s his whole career without any issues, does not have this concern. If there's any reliever from this free agent class I'd bet on at least staying in their current general neighbourhood of effectiveness by the end of their new contract, it's probably him. Much has been made of Rogers' -61° arm angle, which changes everything about how he should be valued because his pitches do not move at all like they are supposed to. He's a two-pitch, sinker-slider guy, using the former way more than the latter. The sinker averaged 84 mph last year; the slider 74 mph. Of course, this does not matter, because the sinker moves like a mid-80s 12-6 curveball while the slider rises with extreme cut, with both practically being released from the ground. He is truly one of a kind in this way. It's that bizarre delivery that has allowed him to become about as consistent as a reliever can be over the past few years. He absolutely pounds the zone, with a career walk rate of 4.4% that cratered even further recently, sitting at 2.2% since the start of 2024. Of all bullpen pitchers with at least 200 IP since the start of 2021, Rogers' average exit velocity against ranks second-lowest. His launch angle against is eighth-lowest. His barrel rate? Also second-lowest. Hard-hit rate? Sixth-lowest. Yet, he has surrendered 1,191 balls in play in that timespan, 199 more than Brent Suter, the next-closest guy on the list. That's the same as the difference between the pitchers ranked second and 15th. One of the reasons command and pitch-to-contact arms, especially if they're relievers, aren't valued as highly as they once were is that their approach leads to greater variability. More hittable pitches and more balls in play equals a greater risk of the opponent stringing hits together, doing damage, or both. For a half-decade, way longer than any other pitch-to-contact reliever in the game, Rogers has found a way to defy this law because of how hard his movement patterns are on hitters' eyes by virtue of his release point. It's entirely possible the standard of variance that non-strikeout arms sign up for simply doesn't apply to him to the same degree, and the infield defense he'll have behind him makes him an even more logical fit for the Blue Jays. Tyler Rogers Percentiles, 2023-25 Year BB% GB% AVG. EV Hard-Hit% Barrel% 2025 100 98 99 95 100 2024 100 93 99 95 93 2023 83 89 99 98 100 Data from Statcast This wholesale prevention of quality contact has allowed Rogers to maintain a lower-than-average rate of home runs per flyball for his entire career. The Blue Jays' relief corps hemorrhaged damage in 2024, and it still wasn't fully immune in that regard despite making it to the World Series this past year. The front office saw a chance to acquire someone who could fix a good chunk of that problem by himself and didn't pass it up. Blue Jays Bullpen & Tyler Rogers Home Run Rates, 2023-25 Year TOR Bullpen HR/9 TOR Bullpen HR/FB Rogers HR/9 Rogers HR/FB 2025 1.04 11.4% 0.47 9.1% 2024 1.46 14.8% 0.90 10.6% 2023 1.15 12.2% 0.85 9.7% Data from FanGraphs The effect his delivery has on batters seems counterintuitive because of how slow his pitches move, but he's arguably better at routinely inducing late swings than anyone in MLB. A common proxy to measure hitter timing is attack angle, one of Statcast's new bat path metrics that measures the vertical direction of the bat's sweet spot at contact (not to be confused with swing tilt). Hitters had a 0° attack angle against Rogers in 2025, the lowest among all pitchers to face at least 200 batters. They made contact deeper towards the plate against Rogers than they did anyone except Chris Martin and Tim Hill, and when adjusting contact point for velocity (slower pitches are naturally struck farther in front of the plate), opponents were later against Rogers than anyone who surrendered 100 balls in play. Aside from the immense degree to which it serves his own purposes, Rogers' alien release point also allows his coaches to mix and match the looks on their pitching staff. Arranging a bullpen with this in mind is a strategy popularized by the successful Rays and Brewers teams of the early 2020s – clubs that never spent on high-leverage relievers in free agency, but found a way to make it work by plugging holes with a diverse set of arm angles. Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reported earlier this month that the Jays are trying to follow this blueprint, which makes the recent acquisitions of Rogers and Chase Lee, as well as the use of a first-round pick on Trey Yesavage, quite intuitive. Blue Jays Pitchers by Arm Angle LHP Arm Angle RHP Arm Angle Eric Lauer 39° Trey Yesavage 63° Brendon Little 33° Dylan Cease 51° Mason Fluharty 33° Braydon Fisher 49° Cody Ponce 45°* Tommy Nance 42° Louis Varland 41° Shane Bieber 39° Jose Berrios 39° Jeff Hoffman 37° Kevin Gausman 37° Yimi García 27° Tyler Rogers -61° Data from Statcast No, Rogers does not provide the velocity and strikeout stuff the Blue Jays' bullpen was lacking to an extent, but the chances of a positive return on that $12.3 million average annual value seem likely. Toronto continues to pay pitchers for showing consistent availability, which makes it seem silly in hindsight that both the Cease and Rogers contracts weren't plainly visible from a mile away. Aggressively paying relievers left and right generally isn't good practice, considering how often and how long they suit up for, but big-picture, the Jays are doing a good job of straddling the line between the various bullpen-building strategies. Make no mistake, they have chosen to pounce on some free agents (Hoffman, García, Rogers), but some are reclamation projects (Nance, Lauer), while others are young, home-grown talent (Little, Fluharty, Fisher). It's good that the team still has money for its needs on the position player side now that the most pressing requirements on the pitching side are taken care of. Rogers may not have been the best option available, but he undeniably makes this team better and flashes considerable potential to make this a wise investment for the duration of his term, especially considering some of the other avenues the Jays could have pursued. View the full article

In most cases, players spend merely a "chapter" of their careers with the Marlins. It's hard for a franchise to retain quality contributors without the willingness to pay them market value nor the allure of winning on a consistent basis. Thankfully, there have been a few exceptions. I am defining the length of a player's tenure as starting with their first major league regular season appearance with the Marlins and ending on the day that they were officially acquired by another organization via trade or free agency. Time spent developing with minor league affiliates prior to debuting was ignored—otherwise, the likes of Isaac Galloway would be featured prominently, and that isn't the spirit of this exercise. Here are the players who had the distinction of being Marlins big leaguers for longer than anybody else. 8. Jeff Conine Marlins debut: April 5, 1993 First Marlins departure: November 20, 1997 Marlins return: August 31, 2003 Final Marlins departure: January 11, 2006 We begin with a complicated case because Conine had two separate stints as a Marlin. Put together, he played a total of six years, 11 months and 26 days with the Fish. Every player featured below exceeded seven calendar years. Conine was remarkably durable, which allowed him to accumulate 1,014 games played—that ranks second in franchise history. "Mr. Marlin" has remained involved with the Marlins for most of his post-playing life. He's currently a special advisor to principal owner Bruce Sherman. 7. Josh Johnson Marlins debut: September 10, 2005 Marlins departure: November 19, 2012 On the other hand, it doesn't feel like Johnson's tenure was especially long because a large chunk of it was spent on the injured list (it was known as the "disabled list" back then). He pitched the necessary innings to be a qualified MLB starter only three times, earning National League All-Star selections in two of those campaigns. Despite being frequently sidelined, JJ is the most productive pitcher that the Marlins have ever employed in terms of both bWAR (25.8) and fWAR (21.4). 6. Ricky Nolasco Marlins debut: April 5, 2006 Marlins departure: July 6, 2013 Ricky Nolasco was a statistical anomaly. No pitcher during MLB's modern era with a minimum of 1,500 career innings had more of an "unlucky" gap between their ERA and FIP. That gap was even more pronounced as a Marlin (4.44 ERA/3.80 FIP) than it was with the other clubs we later pitched for. Nolasco overcame a chronically inflated batting average on balls in play to become the all-time Marlins wins leader in 2012 and nobody has come close to catching him since then. 5. Álex González Marlins debut: August 25, 1998 Marlins departure: February 6, 2006 His individual numbers were unimpressive, but González provided the Marlins with seven-plus seasons of continuity at the shortstop position. One of his ugliest slumps as a hitter coincided with the 2003 postseason—González entered the World Series with a .100/.122/.150 slash line. The Marlins' patience was rewarded when he launched a walk-off home run to win Game 4. He also scored the go-ahead run in Florida's Game 6 clincher. 4. Sandy Alcantara Marlins debut: June 29, 2018 Alcantara is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, which the Marlins astutely signed him to before his Cy Young campaign. He was made available to contending teams at the 2025 trade deadline, but reportedly at a steep price that none of them were willing to meet. As a result, he has become the longest-tenured Marlins pitcher ever. Alcantara will rise to second on this list if he remains with the Fish at the start of next year's spring training. 3. Giancarlo Stanton Marlins debut: June 8, 2010 Marlins departure: December 11, 2017 Stanton is the only player who has ever signed a "lifetime" contract with the Marlins. Just days after celebrating his 25th birthday, he received a record-breaking extension covering the next 13 years. However, new ownership took over three years later and their top priority was reducing payroll. Fresh off the greatest season of his career, Stanton was put on the trade block. He exercised his right to veto agreed-upon deals with several other teams before eventually landing with the New York Yankees. Although the relationship ended awkwardly and Stanton's tenure did not result in any team success, hopefully the Marlins will shower him with the affection he deserves once his career concludes. 2. Miguel Rojas Marlins debut: June 27, 2015 Marlins departure: January 11, 2023 What a journey. The acquisition of Rojas was an afterthought, but eventually, he emerged as the leader of the Marlins clubhouse. He was one of the only holdovers from the Jeffrey Loria era who was wholeheartedly embraced by Sherman's front office (his contract was extended twice). Alas, outside of South Florida, there won't be many fans associating Rojas with the Marlins moving forward. The first paragraph of his baseball epitaph will describe him as the perfect "glue guy" who helped the Los Angeles Dodgers to back-to-back championships. He'll be finishing his playing career with the Dodgers in 2026. 1. Luis Castillo Marlins debut: August 8, 1996 Marlins departure: December 2, 2005 Like Conine, Castillo has already been inducted into the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. An excerpt from his plaque will suffice: "A three-time National League All-Star and three-time Gold Glove recipient (2003-05), the switch-hitting infielder also led the NL in stolen bases twice (2000 and 2002). The San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, native played 10 seasons with the Marlins, and upon his induction, he ranked as the franchise leader in hits (1,273), at-bats (4,347), plate appearances (4,966), games played (1,128), singles (1,081), triples (42), walks (533), and stolen bases (281). View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays confirmed their signing of reliever Tyler Rogers this evening. As reported, the contract is a three-year pact with a vesting option for 2029. The right-hander will earn a guaranteed $37 million over the course of the deal, including a $1 million buyout on the $12 million vesting option. To make room for Rogers on the 40-man roster, the Blue Jays designated fellow reliever Justin Bruihl for assignment. The southpaw appeared in 15 games for Toronto this past season, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 13.2 innings. He struck out 18 but walked seven. Bruihl also gave up two runs (one earned) in his lone postseason appearance. Given his poor performance in 2025, this DFA hardly comes as a surprise. However, losing Bruihl would be a hit to Toronto's left-handed relief depth. If Bruihl passes through waivers, he will most likely elect free agency. If that happens, the Blue Jays could attempt to re-sign him on a minor league deal. Featured image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images. View the full article

Jeff Passan has reported the Red Sox have swapped right-handed Luis Perales for the Nationals' left-handed pitching prospect Jake Bennett. More to come. View the full article