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Alex and Maddie say goodbye to Alex Bregman and welcome the newest member of the Boston Red Sox, Ranger Suarez, to the team. They talk through 2026 roster projections and make some predictions on how the rest of the offseason will play out by focusing on some outside-the-box trade targets to fix the hole at second base. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View the full article

In an exclusive interview with Talk Sox, Hayden Mullins discusses his time in college, where he dealt with injuries leading up to the draft, along with his time in the Red Sox organization. Mullins goes over his pitch repertoire along with how the Rule 5 draft went for him this offseason. View the full article

For the first time in a handful of years, the Chicago Cubs entered an offseason with year-over-year certainty behind the plate. While there are still some questions about the long-term projectability of the catcher spot, the team knew that they'd have a tandem of Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya holding down the position in 2026. Such certainty is largely due to the late-stage breakout from the former. Kelly's career-high 421 plate appearances did stem largely from Amaya working his way through multiple injuries. He was also able to spin such heavy work into career marks just about everywhere you look on the stat sheet, if not something very close to resembling one. Each of his .249 average and 9.6 percent barrel rate sat atop his output in each, while his .179 isolated power and 40.3 percent hard-hit rate each checked in as his best work since 2019. His .333 on-base percentage was his best since 2021. At no point over a full season has Kelly's fWAR been higher than the 2.6 figure he posted in his debut with the Cubs. That 2025 output from Kelly has him firmly in the driver's seat to get the majority of the timeshare over Amaya, even with the latter's growth over the last couple of years. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus project him for 55 percent of the time at catcher to Amaya's 40. Projections thus far, however, don't love him. Each available model bears some level of regression virtually everywhere. Which leads to questions as to what Kelly did that made him so successful as a hitter in 2025 and whether it's something he can duplicate throughout the 2026 campaign. There were a few factors at play that allowed Kelly to discover the offensive success he had in 2025. The first was in his discipline. His 21.9 percent chase rate was his lowest in six years, while his 20.6 percent whiff rate was his best in seven. He also zeroed in on breaking and off-speed pitches, both of which represented his two highest rates of hard contact (42.2 percent for breaking pitches & 40.0 percent for off-speed). In addition, there weren't necessarily mechanical changes at play, but there was at least one notable timing development: The negative indicator before the number indicates the pull side. Kelly leaned heavily into pull-side tendencies, which is logical considering the lower velocity at which those pitch types are approaching the plate. His Pull% grew from 41.4 percent in 2024 to 45.4 percent in 2025. As a timing mechanism, it's not something that's always going to be in a hitter's control. But if Kelly can continue to maintain the approach that allows him to turn around on pitches that are easier to pull as a general operating standard, then there's reason to believe in some carryover, especially given the fly-ball tendencies that increased along with his newfound love for pulling the ball. Kelly's Pull% and fly-ball rate didn't necessarily grow in step with one another. But he did bump the fly-ball rate up about three percent (42.7). Those two factors resulted in a PullAIR% of 23.9, a figure that ranked 47th among 251 qualifying position players. The lead-up to it makes it repeatable; Kelly attacked breaking and off-speed pitches rather than relying on fastball contact that more so begets hard contact. That he's attacking those types of pitches lends itself to the notion of being replicable, even if you're worried about the bat slowing down from catcher that'll be 32 in July and is coming off his highest volume of work at the plate. The other things that Kelly did well are things he's always done. His 19.0 percent strikeout rate was a notch below the 20.2 percent mark for his career. His walk rate, at 10.7 percent, was in the neighborhood of a career 9.9 percent one. He's always been a relatively disciplined hitter relative to the position he plays. The difference is that he was able to parlay that discipline into something of actual value. And given that we're not talking about a hitter jumping all over fastballs or doing something vastly different on the mechanical side, it doesn't seem at all unrealistic for him to do it again in 2026. View the full article

The Cubs have made some big splashes this offseason that have gotten the attention of baseball fans everywhere, including Royals ones. First, they acquired pitcher Edward Cabrera from the Marlins in exchange for their No. 1 prospect (Owen Caissie), No. 11 prospect (Cristian Hernandez), and an 18-year-old infielder who played in the Complex League last year (Edgardo De Leon). Then, Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer signed third baseman Alex Bregman last weekend to a five-year, $175 million deal. The deal is one of the biggest in franchise history and include no-opt outs over the duration of the contract, a significant commitment to a player who will be 32 during the 2026 season. The Bregman deal was unexpected (he seemed more tied to the Red Sox and even the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason), and it has also put their infield in flux. With the arrival of Bregman, incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw has been moved off the starting position for now (according to Roster Resource). However, the Cubs have a decision to make about second baseman Nico Hoerner, who will be a free agent after 2026 and could be tough to retain long-term. Already, it's been reported that many clubs have inquired about Hoerner, including the San Francisco Giants and the New York Yankees. That said, trading Hoerner would be a tough move for a Cubs team that's looking to not just return to the postseason, but topple the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central division. Hoerner is one of the top defensive second basemen in the game, has an excellent plate approach (109 wRC+; 0.80 BB/K ratio), and accumulated a 4.8 fWAR last year and has a career 20 fWAR in 704 games, according to Fangraphs. At 28 years old, the Cubs should be looking to extend Hoerner, not trade him away. Unfortunately, that makes Shaw the odd man out, unless they are content using him as a super-utility player. While that's not a bad strategy for 2026, Chicago could leverage Shaw's situation and former top prospect value in a trade that could net the Cubs some present and long-term assets. The Royals are one of those teams that could be the ideal trade partners with the Cubs, especially with the holes they have right now in the lineup and infield for 2026 and beyond. Why Shaw Would Make Sense for Kansas City Matt Trueblood of North Side Baseball published an article on Wednesday on how the Royals are a trade suitor with whom Chicago could work on a possible Shaw deal. According to Trueblood, the Cubs and Royals would make sense as trade partners given their mutual interest in each other's players, including Shaw (the Royals were rumored to be interested in drafting him at No. 8 in the 2023 MLB Draft, but they selected prep catcher Blake Mitchell instead). Here's a snippet from Trueblood's piece that illustrates why the Royals would be interested in Shaw for 2026 and beyond. In addition to India, the Royals also trotted Michael Massey out at second base in 2025 to lackluster results. Massey posted a 57 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR in 277 plate appearances last season. India was only a shade better than his 27-year-old counterpart last year. The former Red posted an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR, with most of his value weighed down by mediocre baserunning (-2.6 BsR) and poor defense (-11.8 Def). Shaw was inconsistent as a rookie, but he still would be a considerable upgrade over Massey and India in 2026. The 24-year-old Maryland product hit 13 home runs, stole 17 bases, scored 57 runs, posted a 93 wRC+, and accumulated a 1.5 fWAR in 437 plate appearances. The exit-velocity and batted-ball metrics were questionable from Shaw last year, but he showed some promise in his plate discipline metrics, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary profile below. Now, Shaw isn't as elite in plate discipline, especially compared to India. The former Florida Gator had an exit velocity and hard-hit profile similar to show, but India ranked in the upper percentiles in O-Swing%, K%, Z-Contact%, and Whiff%, as demonstrated in his own TJ Stats summary. In terms of pure hitting profile, India is a little better than Shaw. However, India is also 4 years older, will be a free agent after 2026, and lags significantly behind Shaw in defensive value (India posted a -6 OAA, while Shaw posted a -1 OAA last season). Thus, the Royals would benefit from having Shaw as the regular second baseman, with Massey as a backup who could give Shaw a spell (and see some time in the outfield, since Massey is a much better defensive outfielder than India). Shaw also should transition well offensively to Kauffman Stadium, especially with the modified dimensions. Even with the old dimensions, the Cubs infielder would have had 12 xHR at the K last season, which is only one fewer than his total 2025 mark. His spray chart also shows a pull-heavy approach that would lead to many extra base hits, especially at home in Kansas City. Lastly, the Royals would have a controllable, affordable asset in Shaw who could help them with salary stability over the next couple of seasons. Shaw is not arbitration-eligible until 2028, and he won't be a free agent until 2032. That kind of long-term control is valuable, especially for a small-market team like the Royals, which has to be judicious with its spending each offseason. What Would the Royals Give Up for Shaw? According to Trueblood, the Cubs could be interested in both long-term and short-term assets. In terms of the former, the Cubs could benefit by beefing up their farm system a bit, especially after the lower levels, after the Cabrera trade. Trueblood points out recent draft picks Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond as possible options, especially since it was reported that the Cubs were interested in selecting them in last year's draft. It's hard to imagine the Royals parting with either of those two prospects, especially after just drafting them. Still, as prep prospects, they carry a bit of risk, especially compared to most college players who have lower ceilings but higher floors. If it means that Kansas City could get a young, budding player like Shaw (at a position where there's not a lot of great organizational depth), then the Royals could be convinced to let go of one of those promising recently drafted teenagers. Another prospect who could be traded is Mitchell, our No. 2 in the system. He had a rough 2025 (due to a hand injury) but had a strong Arizona Fall League campaign and could be the Cubs' catcher of the future if the chips fall right. Trueblood also mentions that some pieces that could affect the Cubs' MLB roster could also be desired. That includes Nick Loftin, a utility player who seems a bit blocked or out of favor with the Royals, and Kris Bubic, who has long been liked by the Cubs' coaching staff, according to the article. Loftin should be an easy one to deal away from the Royals' perspective, especially since he has failed to gain hold of the "utility" position the past couple of seasons. While he remains unsigned, it wouldn't be surprising to see Kansas City bring back Adam Frazier on a one-year deal for 2026. That would only guarantee Loftin another long stint in Omaha. With the Cubs, he could at least get an opportunity to prove that he belongs on an MLB roster. As for Bubic, a couple of months ago, he may have made sense for the Cubs. However, their rotation is looking deep after the acquisition of Cabrera. Roster Resource projects Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon to be the No. 4 and 5 starters in the rotation, and talented but inconsistent pitchers Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks are slated to begin the season in Triple-A Iowa. That said, Imanaga regressed a bit last year (4.86 FIP) and could be due for more based on how his 2025 ended (4.70 ERA in the second half). Taillon pitched under 129.1 IP, nearly 36 fewer innings than his mark in 2024. Taillon also had a mediocre FIP at 4.65, which could make him another regression candidate in 2026. Bubic has struggled to accumulate innings, but he's been effective when healthy. Thus, the Cubs could perhaps slow-play him into the rotation, initially in a hybrid role. If Imanaga or Taillon struggle or go down, the Stanford lefty can fill in and be productive. His TJ Stats Statcast summary profile showed that he not only has excellent stuff, but a strong ability to generate strikeouts and whiffs and limit hard contact. The only issue with Bubic is that he'll be a free agent after 2026. Thus, if the Royals want to get Shaw, they may need to include a top prospect like Gamble, Hammond, or Mitchell. Should JJ Picollo not be willing to do that, it may be Bubic, Loftin, and another asset, whether a mid-level prospect or player (India would be the ideal, but his $8 million deal may be too much for the Cubs to take on). Is a Shaw to Kansas City Deal Realistic? Shaw certainly would be an intriguing player, especially with his home run and stolen base upside. With another year of at-bats, it's easy to see Shaw develop into a 20-20 HR-SB player. That said, projections are a bit torn on his outlook for the upcoming season. Below are the ones from Steamer, the BAT X, and OOPSY. Steamer: .161 ISO, .317 wOBA, 105 wRC+ The BAT X: .127 ISO, .290 wOBA, 86 wRC+ OOPSY: .167 ISO, .318 wOBA, 105 wRC+ Steamer and OOPSY are optimistic about Shaw's outlook for 2026. The BAT X is not, and by a considerable margin, as illustrated by the 19-point difference in wOBA. While Shaw is talented, he may not be a sure thing in the upcoming season by any stretch. While India's ceiling isn't as high as Shaw's, at least the Royals know what to relatively expect (unless India continues his freefall for a second-straight season, like Hunter Renfroe from 2023 to 2024). Furthermore, the likely ask from the Cubs for a player of Shaw's pedigree probably would be just too high for Kansas City. The Royals want to get better from now until Opening Day. While Shaw would help them do so, especially at the keystone, it would require the Royals to part ways with not only Bubic (not that big a deal) and a talented prospect. The latter is a much bigger concern, especially since Picollo and Scouting Director Brian Bridges have worked hard to build up the system since the 2024 MLB Draft. Trading from their top prospect capital now would be foolish, especially since Shaw still has some development to do. Trading a prospect for a player like Jarren Duran or Brendan Donovan is one thing, especially since they're so established. Shaw isn't anywhere close to that level just yet. Nonetheless, while Shaw's move to Kansas City may not be realistic, it's an interesting proposal, and Shaw's stock will certainly be worth watching. He could be a buy-low candidate at the Trade Deadline if he's still with the Cubs and not getting much playing time behind Bregman and Hoerner. If India is not getting the job done by then, the Royals could pounce and be more willing to deal from their prospect capital midseason for Shaw. View the full article

Tomorrow we'll reveal this year's Winter Meltdown pint glass, available only at the year's Winter Meltdown. It will be the 12th pint glass Brock Beauchamp has designed, and I thought it might be fun to look at the first 11 and how they related to the history of the Winter Meltdown. 2014 - Year One - A New Idea The first year's pint glass is unique - because we had no idea what we were doing. But we knew what had happened the year before, which we now refer to as Year 0 of the Meltdown. We had purchased a keg at Hubert's across the street from the Metrodome, and invited anyone who read Twins Daily to stop by and have a beer on us after Twins Fest. We were swamped. Well over 100 people showed up, and we recognized that all those digital eyeballs that we had seen on Google Analytics belonged to real eyeballs that wanted to connect. So in 2014, we planned ahead a bit. We booked Scott Erickson and Dave St. Peter, Brock designed a pint glass based on a memorable Twins’ moment, 612 Brew provided the beer, and most of us (including Erickson) stayed way too late in the night talking Twins. A tradition had started. 2015-2020 - Years Two Through Seven - The Baseball Years We kept going strong, getting more and more attendees and more prominent guests over the next six years. Alumni like Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer, and Kent Hrbek joined us, and we had over 400-600 people attend a few of these events. We decided we wanted different designs for the pint glasses every year, and there were only so many iconic moments that we could capture, so the pint glasses switched their designs to the old-timey Twins playing winter baseball. They captured the Meltdown’s vibe: a mix of winter and fun, which seems quaint given what came next. 2021-2022 Year Eight and ??? - COVID Hits COVID meant no events for the next two years, but the first year we leaned into it with a special isolation-themed pint glass that you could order online, and the proceeds went to charity. The second year we ... didn't. And it looked like the Winter Meltdown might be doomed. 2023 - 2025 Years Eight Through Eleven - Pint Glasses for the Fans But we did not going to go gently into that good night. We bounced back with Glen Perkins and Patrick Reusse in 2023, and started including current players the next year when Minnesotans Matt Wallner and Louis Varland joined us. Since we had already broken the ice on the pint glasses reflecting the mood of the fan base, we kept going down that path, too: the 2022 season ended amid a slew of injuries the 2023 season ended with the Twins breaking the playoff loss streak the 2024 season ended with the team for sale. Which brings us to the 2025 season, a season that ended with a fan base trying to process just what the hell happened to their beloved franchise. We'll reveal that design tomrrow, but you're welcome to give your thoughts below. Or better yet, make sure you get your glass by becoming a Twins Daily caretaker and getting your free tickets, and grabbing up to three more tickets for your crew. See you on Friday for the reveal! View the full article

Now that Alex Bregman's exit has been analyzed, scrutinized, and coped with in every possible way, it's time to move onto something far more productive: figuring out how on earth the Boston Red Sox can go about replacing his production. As a disclaimer, it's worth noting that the real answer to that question is "they can't." Bregman, a three-time All-Star, brought such a special mix of intangibles and superstar-caliber production to the team on a daily basis that asking anyone else to fill those shoes — even Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette — is a fool's errand. However, it'd be even more foolish to admit that, throw our hands up in the air, and give up on the search. Marcelo Mayer is the internal candidate most likely to see time at the hot corner in the wake of Bregman leaving (he did so last year when Bregman went down with a quad injury), but he's largely unproven at the top level and is also a candidate to fill the team's wide-open second base job. Instead, let's direct our attention to perhaps the best trade fit still available to the Red Sox: Isaac Paredes. A two-time All-Star in his own right, the soon-to-be 27-year-old comes with two remaining years of team control via arbitration. He's also a legitimate power-hitting threat, hitting 90 combined home runs over the past four years while posting an ISO above .200 in three of those campaigns. He's also patient (11.1% career walk rate) and isn't all too prone to whiffs, chases, or strikeouts. It's a pretty advanced offensive profile for someone who's just now entering his physical prime. So, what's the downside? Well, he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, nor does he barrel or square it up very frequently. His contact metrics and batted-ball data are all rather sour on his ability to provide impact at the plate in any meaningful form. Which begs the question: Where does his power come from? This won't be some deep-dive statistical analysis on a player who is currently slated to spend the next two years in Houston. If the Red Sox acquire him in a trade (as has been oft-rumored since Bregman packed his bags for the Windy City), then we can get into the nitty-gritty behind what Paredes does and doesn't do well, and what we should expect from him in Boston. For now, let's just appreciate something he does better than perhaps any hitter in the sport: pulling the ball in the air. *Chart courtesy of Baseball Savant That is such an absurd batted-ball profile, and also a ridiculously tantalizing concept when one considers that the Green Monster is 310 feet down the line. Even the fabled Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Daikin Park are a good five or ten feet beyond that (even if they aren't quite as high as the Monster). Paredes isn't just a pull hitter — he pulls the ball down the line as often as anyone else in the league. For reference, Bregman ranked 37th in the league last year in pull air rate (24.4%). If you're wondering why that stat matters, take it from Baseball Savant: "From 2022-24, while only 17.5% of batted balls that were 'pulled airballs,' that subset was responsible for 66% of all home runs. Pulled airballs in that time produced a .547 average, 1.227 slugging percentage and .733 wOBA, making them an extremely valuable outcome. Airballs that were not pulled, by comparison, had a .319 average, .527 slugging percentage and .353 wOBA, considerably less valuable." Seems like a good thing to be good at, right? Well, Paredes ranked first in the league with a 38.5% pull air rate, 0.1% ahead of Cal Raleigh, who led the sport with 60 home runs last year. For his career (2020-25), Paredes' frequency of pulling the ball in the air (32.2%) is nearly double the league average in that time (16.7%). Even if the height of the Monster would knock down a few of his homers, it's not difficult to imagine him leading the league in doubles every year. Now, beyond that superlative skill, there's a lot of places where Paredes falls short of Bregman. He's a far worse defender. He strikes out more and walks less. He's run reverse splits in multiple seasons. And, of course, he doesn't bring the pedigree nor leadership of a two-time World Series champion to the clubhouse. But, with Bregman (and Nolan Arenado) off the board, third base options have grown scarce — the team will almost certainly have to settle for a downgrade in at least one way or another. Upside must be prioritized, even at the expense of some serious pitfalls or red flags. And as far as extreme profiles go, there's hardly one that fits Fenway better than Paredes'. View the full article

On Wednesday afternoon, the Toronto Blue Jays formally announced that they've signed five free agents to minor league contracts: left-hander Michael Plassmeyer, right-hander Jorge Alcala, outfielder/DH Eloy Jiménez, and utility players Rafael Lantigua and Carlos Mendoza. All five will be invited to major league spring training. Jays Centre previously covered the signings of Plassmeyer, Mendoza, and Jiménez. Alcala is a seven-year MLB veteran who spent the 2025 season with the Twins, Red Sox, and Cardinals. Lantigua played in Toronto's minor league system from 2017-24 before spending 2025 in the Phillies organization. Two more notable players the Blue Jays have reportedly signed to minor league deals are Josh Winckowski and Nic Enright, though neither contract has been confirmed yet. The Jays also signed Rodolfo Castro to a minor league deal earlier this winter, but they recently released him so he could pursue an opportunity in Japan. Featured image courtesy of Aaron Cobb/Toronto Blue Jays, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Twins affiliates announced their coaching staffs this morning. Without further ado, here are the 2026 Twins Minor League Coaching Staffs. St. Paul Saints Toby Gardenhire was the Saints manager during their first five seasons affiliated with the Twins organization. He joined the big-league coaching staff as the Major League Field Coordinator. Brian Dinkelman, 42, moves up to Triple-A from Double-A Wichita. He first managed in Cedar Rapids in 2019 and since then his teams have won 56% of their games (443-348). Drafted by the Twins in 2006, he spent eight seasons as a player including some big-league time in 2011. In his MLB career, he is a lifetime .301 hitter! After being the Kernels hitting coach for three seasons, he became the team’s manager in 2019. In 2023, he led the Kernels to the Midwest League championship and was named the Minor League Manager of the Year by Baseball America. Last year, he made the move up to Double-A. Shawn Schlecter, 35, is returning for his third season the Saints. He is the lead hitting coach. This is the Burnsville native’s seventh season in the Twins organization. He’s been a hitting coach in Cedar Rapids (2022) and Wichita (2023). He played ball at North Iowa Community College and then spent six years as a coach at the school. He joined the Twins organization in 2020. CJ Baker is entering his third season in the Twins organization after coaching nine seasons in the college ranks. Most recently, he was in charge of Video, Technology, and was the Analytics Coordinator at Stanford for two years. He has a master’s degree from the University of Washington. He will be the Hitting and Development Coach for the Saints this season. He’s been the hitting coach in Cedar Rapids the past two seasons. Carlos Hernandez is back for his second season as a Saints pitching coach. The 45-year-old former big leaguer is now in his ninth season in the Twins organization. You may recall that the southpaw pitched for the Astros in the early 2000s. Ryan Ricci, 29, has quickly moved up the Twins coaching ladder. He joined the organization in 2024 and coached pitchers in Fort Myers. In 2025, he was with the Wichita Wind Surge. And with Jonas Lovin moving into a coordinator role, Ricci grabs the open pitching coach spot with the Saints in 2026. Before joining the Twins, he was a pitching coach at George Mason University. Before that, he held that role at Lafayette College for two years. He pitched at George Mason and then spent a season in the Diamondbacks minor leagues. He returned to college as a graduate assistant. Wichita Wind Surge For the second straight season, the Wind Surge will have a new manager. Last year, Brian Dinkelman replaced Ramon Borrego after he was promoted to the big leagues. Dinkelman will manage in St. Paul. The Wind Surge manager in 2026 will be Nico Giarratano.This is his fourth season in the Twins organization. He was a development coach his first two seasons with the Twins organization, and last season became the manager of the FCL Twins. He was drafted by the Giants in 2017 out of the University of San Francisco and played through the 2021 season. He spent one year as the Mariners DSL manager. Andrew Cresci is back for his second season in the Twins organization, and his second season as the Wind Surge hitting coach. Prior to joining the Twins, he coached for three years in the Houston Astros organization. In the spring of 2021, he was the hitting coach for Central Lakes College in Brainerd, MN, and then joined Driveline for a short stint before the Astros hired him. He played club baseball at Sacred Heart University and graduated in 2014. He then went to Rome (yes, the one in Italy) to continue his education at John Cabot University. In 2017, he played for S.S. Lazio Baseball Club in Italy. He also serves as the hitting coordinator for the Italian Softball Federation. Julian Gonzalez is also in this second season with the Twins organization. Last year, he was a hitting and development coach in Cedar Rapids. He spent the past two seasons in the Orioles organization, spending a year in the DSL and then 2024 in the FCL. Before joining the O’s, he had spent the previous two years as a high school hitting and outfielder coordinator in Jacksonville, Florida. While studying at the University of North Florida, he was a volunteer assistant on the softball team. Jesus Sanchez returns to Wichita for the second straight season. It is his fourth season in the organization. A native of Venezuela, Sanchez pitched 15 years in minor-league baseball, reaching Triple-A. Stephen Ridings is not only new to the Wind Surge staff and the Twins organization. 2026 also marks his coaching debut season. He spent the 2025 season with Oklahoma City, the Triple-A affiliate of the Dodgers though he pitched in just one game. Originally, he was drafted by the Cubs out of, you guessed it, Haverford College. He spent time in the Cubs, Royals, Yankees, Mets and Dodgers organization as well as spending 2024 with Frank Viola’s High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. The highlight of his career likely came in 2021 when he pitched in five big league games for the Yankees. In his MLB debut, he struck out DJ Stewart and Pedro Severino before giving up a hit. He responded by striking out Pat Valaika. His second game was a bullpen game. He entered with two runners on and two outs. He got the final out and then had a one-two-three inning. In his third outing, he went one inning and struck out the side, just like in his debut. He started by striking out Cal Raleigh and Jake Fraley. Dylan Moore singled, and then Ridings struck out Jake Bauers to end the inning. Cedar Rapids Kernels Brian Meyer was the manager in Fort Myers for his first four years in the organization. Last season, he moved up to Cedar Rapids as their manager. 2026 will be his second season with the Kernels. He had spent 13 years coaching in college before joining the Twins organization, including five seasons at Tulane and three seasons as an assistant at Butler. Hunter Townsend joined the Twins organization last offseason and will again be a pitching coach of the Kernels. He pitched at the University of Charleston in West Virginia from 2016 through 2020. He transferred to East Tennessee State for the 2021 season. He began working as a Performance Coach at Tread Athletics in Charlotte, North Carolina. Erick Julio has been with the organization since the 2022 season. He worked in the DSL in 2023 and 2024. Last year, he came to the States as a pitching coach for the FCL Twins. The 29-year-old from Colombia played professionally from 2014 through the 2021 season.That year, he pitched for Team Colombia in the Olympic Qualifiers. Danny Marcuzzo joined the Twins organization last offseason. He was the hitting and development coach for the Saints in 2025. This season, he will be working with the Kernels hitters. He coached in the Arizona Fall League earlier this offseason. A native of Omaha, Marcuzzo spent two seasons at Coffeyville Community College before playing two seasons at Western Illinois. He later earned his Masters Degree at Central Oklahoma where he also helped the baseball program. He returned to Coffeyville as the assistant coach in 2019. In 2020, he started a four-year stint as an assistant coach at the University of Nebraska. Most recently, he was the assistant coach at the University of Akron. He is touted for his defensive coaching as well as hitting. Yeison Perez will return for his second season as the Hitting and Development Coach for the Surge. Perez played for the DSL Twins in 2016 and 2017 and in the GCL in 2018. He spent two seasons as a coach in the FCL before joining Cedar Rapids in 2023. Fort Myers Mighty Mussels New to the organization in 2026 is Jordan Smith, and he will manage the Mighty Mussels. He has spent the past 14 seasons in the Guardians’ organization. The last three, he’s been the team’s High-A manager. Smith grew up in Willmar, Minnesota, and went to St. Cloud State for two years. He was the league’s Freshman of the Year his first season, and the league’s Player of the Year his second season. He was a ninth-round pick in that 2011 draft and played eight seasons of minor-league ball, seven with Cleveland. He reached Triple-A. His final pro season, he spent a little time with the St. Paul Saints. A former outfielder, Smith will be helped by a veteran pitching coach. Richard Salazar returns to the Mussels for the fourth straight season. He’s been in the organization for the past nine years. He coached in Cedar Rapids the two previous seasons. He came to the States to attend Miami Dade College, got drafted by the Orioles in 2001, and then spent 17 years playing pro baseball. Dylan Hawley will be the second pitching coach. Hawley is in his third season with the organization. He worked with Dominican Summer League pitchers the past two seasons. He is from Minnesota and had been working at Driveline the previous three years. In 2022, he was the pitching coach for the Excelsior Legion Baseball team. Carlos Lara will be the Mussels hitting coach. He has been the DSL Twins hitting coach the past two seasons. Lara has also with the Twins' baseball technology group in the past. FCL/FTM Complex Tristan Toorie will be taking on the role of FCL Twins manager. He spent the past two seasons in the FCL as a hitting and development coach. Previously, he had been an assistant coach at some small colleges, and he worked for MLB helping scouts and coaches. He played ball at Augusta State University and made his coaching debut in 2013 with the St. Cloud Rox of the Northwoods League. There will be three pitching coaches for the FCL Twins: Dan Urbina returns to his roots, working with pitchers in the lower levels of the minor leagues. He was a pitching coach with the Saints a year ago. It is his seventh season in the Twins system. He was a pitching coach in Wichita for three seasons before joining the Saints last year. He came to the Twins from the Pirates organization. He was the pitching coach for their Venezuelan Summer League team for 11 seasons and then for seven more seasons with their Dominican Summer League team. Before that, he pitched for three seasons in the Dodgers organization. Matthew Hartshorn joined the Twins organization in November. Prior to working with the Twins, he worked as a pitching coordinator at Rockland Peak Performance in New Jersey. He also had an internship as a Pitcher Development intern at Cressey Sports Performance. He pitched for Rider University in 2020 and 2021 but then took on the role of Student Manager and Director of Baseball Analytics. Ryan Meisinger Carter Kessinger will again be the Twins Rehab Pitching Coach after joining the organization before the 2025 season. He pitched at Yale for five years and spent a lot of time as the team's Director of Analytics. Steven Cardona joins the FCL group as a hitting coach. He held the same role for the DSL Twins the past two seasons. Cardona previously was working as a hitting instructor at Infinite Hitting. He has worked in a variety of roles, from sales, to data entry, to ESL instructor in the Mets, Marlins, Rays, and Blue Jays organizations. Emilio Guerrero is starting his fifth season with the FCL Twins as a hitting coach. He signed as an infielder with the Blue Jays in 2011 and played in their organization through the 2019 season. He actually attempted pitching the last couple of seasons. From 2006 through 2016 (11 seasons), Jairo Rodriguez represented the Minnesota Twins organization as a player. He was usually the #2 (or #3) catcher on whichever roster he was on. He topped out at Triple-A. He has been coaching in the organization since the end of his playing career. He was with the Kernels in 2021 and 2022. He went back to the DSL for the 2023 season and came back to the Kernels in 2024. Last year, he worked with the FCL Twins and will do so again in 2026. DSL/Dominican Complex For the fifth season in a row, Rafael Martinez will manage the DSL Twins. Two new coaches in the organization will be working with the DSL Twins hitters. Ozney Guillen, the son of the White Sox legend Ozzie Guillen, has held a ton of roles in Venezuela, Colombia and elsewhere. Also new to the Twins is Zach Simmons. He comes to the Twins from Driveline. Former Twins minor leaguer Ruben Santana returns for his fifth season coaching in the DSL. He originally signed with the Twins in September of 2015 and was a player in the organization through the 2021 season. He has been responsible for hitting, base running and infield work through his tenure. Alex Wright joined the Twins organization last offseason and will be in his second season as a pitching coach in the Dominican Summer League. He was a student at the University of South Carolina from 2016-2020. As a freshman, he applied for an internship with the Gamecocks as a video analyst. He became a student manager as well. His second year, the school invested in Trackman, Rapsodo and other technology and he dove in head first. After school, he joined Ascent Athlete, a sports performance facility in Pennsylvania that focuses on baseball and softball player development. Gabriel Garcia will be the other DSL Twins pitching coach. This is his first season in the organization. Player Development Staff: Jeremy Zoll: VP, General Manager Alex Hassan: Assistant GM Drew MacPhail: Director of Player Development Brian Maloney: Director, Minor League and High Performance Operations Amanda Daley: Director of Player Education Tommy Bergjans: Director, Minor League Pitching Development Frankie Padulo: Assistant Director, Player Development Josh Ruffin: Director, Applied Analytics Jason Davila: Senior Manager, Minor League Operations Lisa Maria Tolentino: Coordinator of Minor League Operations Chad Raines: Coordinator, Player Development Coordinators: Kevin Morgan: Minor League Field Coordinator Seth Feldman: Complex Coordinator Ehire Adrianza: Assistant, Player Development. Nat Ballenberg: Pitching Coordinator Jonas Lovin: Assistant Pitching Coordinator Argenis Angulo: Complex Pitching Coordinator Bryce Berg: Director, Minor League Hitting Development Ryan Smith: Assistant Hitting Coordinator Tucker Frawley: Catching Coordinator View the full article

Owen and Jesse start the show by breaking down the latest in the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, including the Mets' reported offer of $50 million AAV, and the guys debate the pros and cons of different contract structures for Tucker. The guys take a look around the league and break down the Red Sox' reported deal with Ranger Suárez and the Cubs' deal with Alex Bregman, before digging into the Blue Jays, who will be playing in the World Baseball Classic, including Ernie Clement, Kazuma Okamoto, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The second half of the episode is spent recapping the offseason acquisitions of Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers, and Okamoto, analyzing ZIPS projections, and setting up the current roster for when pitchers and catchers report on February 11th. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

The Twins' current front office, led by Derek Falvey, has been fixated on value since the day they took over. Getting the most out of your investment is a necessary skill in baseball, given the finite supply of resources—especially for the Twins in recent years. However, there comes a point at which value becomes the primary pursuit, at the cost of success. The Twins appear to have reached that point. Value can be subjective, and each team has its own definition, shaped by its beliefs and intentions. The best example of this came during the 2025 trade deadline. The Twins have been steadfast in their belief that relief pitchers are the least valuable position on the roster and are easily replaceable. As a result, they traded away years of controllable, high-level relief pitchers for what they believed to be better value. In this case, they saw more value in emptying the bullpen to bring in players who would add to several existing logjams on the roster, including starting pitching and left-handed corner outfielders. The case for the Twins making these moves is clear: Potential starting pitchers and regular position players almost always produce more value than relief pitchers. The problem is that, despite this truism, great relief pitchers are still a necessary part of a successful MLB roster. This decision to pursue value at last year’s trade deadline may have left the team in a situation where the payoff is irrelevant. Is it really a savvy move, if the result is a flawed and unsuccessful roster? The Twins could have set themselves up to turn the 2025 selloff into a nimble reallocation of resources, but it appears value is currently getting in their way again. Relief pitching can indeed be more easily replaced than many other positions. That being said, impactful relievers don’t grow on trees. After parting with the entire top of the bullpen hierarchy last season, it seemed they would need to bring in several high-leverage options to fill the void and give themselves a chance in 2026. The Twins clearly didn’t see the value in doing so. As the relief pitching market has steadily moved along, the Twins haven’t been involved at all. Despite their dire need for back-end relievers, they seem to be employing their typical strategy of waiting out the market to the very end, hoping to get a modest discount on players that 29 other teams aren’t interested in paying up for. These aren’t the actions of a team looking to win on the field, but rather one looking to win in the dollars per win department at season’s end. It’s incredibly disappointing. The path to fielding a successful bullpen in 2026 has narrowed significantly, as the Twins have sat on their hands throughout the offseason. It was a credit to them to hold onto core players such as Joe Ryan and Pablo López this winter, but their pursuit of value this offseason may have them weighing those aces' value at the 2026 trade deadline. The ownership and payroll situation has contributed, but the front office's philosophical rigidity is becoming more difficult to ignore. Getting the most out of every dollar is the top priority. Until the team shifts its priorities to fielding a winning roster, it seems we’re doomed to try to find solace in small wins on the margins of the roster rather than on the field. View the full article

For much of this winter, one of the storylines around the Chicago Cubs was the sheer lack of bodies. They spent several weeks with eight or nine open spots on their 40-man roster. Even during the offseason, that's extremely unusual. With the signing of Alex Bregman and the pickups of outfielder Justin Dean and left-handed reliever Ryan Rolison on waivers in the last fistful of days, though, the team is now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster. They've filled the slate, with a combination of trades, several small signings, and the Bregman deal, which feels like a capstone to a great offseason. As we know, though, the offseason isn't over. The team is weighing its options with Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner in the wake of signing Bregman, who gives them a crowded infield to go with their crowded starting rotation and a bullpen that (if not quite overloaded) is a bit short on flexibility. Let's run through the roster, reaching beyond the 40-man, even, to understand what the team has, what it needs, and what lies ahead for them. Locked-in Regulars This category includes only the players who have an ironclad role on the team for the coming season. We know not only that they will be on the team come Opening Day, but roughly what they'll be doing. They're expected to be trusted members of the core all year, if they're healthy enough for that. Position Players Miguel Amaya Tyler Austin Moisés Ballesteros Alex Bregman Michael Busch Pete Crow-Armstrong Ian Happ Carson Kelly Seiya Suzuki Dansby Swanson Starting Pitchers Cade Horton Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Edward Cabrera Jameson Taillon Relief Pitchers Daniel Palencia Phil Maton Caleb Thielbar Hoby Milner Hunter Harvey Jacob Webb This is a large group, given that it's only the middle of January. Trading for Edward Cabrera and signing Bregman clarified the plan for Moisés Ballesteros to serve as the regular designated hitter, pushing Seiya Suzuki to right field. The big moves created uncertainty for some individuals, as we'll discuss next, but they brought the vision of a playoff-caliber team into focus. The Displaced Five incumbent Cubs players are left with more questions than they had before, after adding Bregman and Cabrera to the mix but losing Owen Caissie. At least two have become prominent trade chips; at least one probably just got a step closer to his dreams. Nico Hoerner - Like it or not, the team has had serious discussions about trading Hoerner in three of the last four major transaction windows (offseasons and the run-up to the July trade deadline). That doesn't mean they've ever been especially close to dealing him, or that they'll do so now, but they've had chances to quash any such talk and head off rumors, and they've never really taken them. Because of Hoerner's limitations as a player (especially his lack of power at the plate), they've always understood his to be one place in their lineup where an upgrade was possible, even though they've also always loved him for what he does on the field and who he is in the dugout and the clubhouse. All of that remains true. Matt Shaw - Bregman directly knocked Shaw out of his comfortable nest at third base. He could be left to drift and figure things out on the fly, backing up both Hoerner and Bregman, or he could be installed as the second baseman in the wake of a Hoerner trade. He could also be traded, to any of a handful of interested teams, if the price is right. Kevin Alcántara - COVID and injuries conspired to give the Cubs a fourth option year on Alcántara, who is really starting to feel wasted in Triple A. That doesn't mean he'll be a star in the majors, though, and indeed, there's plenty of doubt both inside the Cubs organization and throughout the industry that he'll ever harness his tools well enough to be a regular. That might finally break in his favor this year. With Caissie off the roster, there's a more open path to a bench role for Alcántara, platooning with Pete Crow-Armstrong and (indirectly) with Ballesteros. Given that he looks increasingly like a fourth outfielder, anyway, the Cubs might feel it's the right time to give him some opportunities in the majors and not to prioritize him playing every day in Iowa. Then again, they could prefer to keep him in a rhythm, in case an injury forces them to turn to him full-time for any stretch. Colin Rea - When he signed an extension with the Cubs, Rea probably thought he had a firmer grasp on a rotation spot than he'd had when he signed with them for 2025. No such luck. After Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer and the team dealt for Cabrera, Rea is now on the bubble. He'll only pitch in the rotation if someone gets hurt or the team elects to use six starters. It's more likely that he'll fill a swingman role all year, starting when needed and working in flexible, medium-leverage relief. Javier Assad - Still able to be optioned to the minors, Assad could spend much of his age-28 season in Des Moines. That's not really fair to him, but the injuries that sidelined him throughout last season put him out of sight and out of mind when the team drew up its plans. He's their seventh starter entering camp, and even if attrition renders him their fifth for a while, Justin Steele is slated to return during the summer and Jaxon Wiggins will start knocking loudly on the door by the trade deadline. Optionable Big-League Depth To their credit, the Cubs have accumulated quite a few plausibly useful big-leaguers (especially pitchers) whom they can send to the minors to maintain roster flexibility all year. Position Players Justin Dean - Picked up on waivers from the Giants, after they'd picked him up on waivers from the Dodgers, Dean is a great story. He scrapped for a decade, often playing independent ball and in the Mexican League, before getting to the majors for the first time last year—with the World Series-winning Dodgers. He's already set to receive a championship ring. The Cubs snagged him with an eye on his good speed and defense; he's extremely light-hitting. As a righty batter behind a fairly left-handed collection of outfielders, though, he could spend some time on the big-league roster as a fifth outfielder. He can be optioned and stashed, which makes him useful on a team light on outfield depth. James Triantos Pedro Ramírez - Both Triantos and Ramírez were added to the 40-man in November to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. They're the current depth options, should the Cubs trade either Hoerner or Shaw, but it's most likely that even if Hoyer moves one of his would-be starters, he'd bring in someone to fill that bench role, leaving these two to ready themselves for the majors in Triple A. Pitchers Ben Brown - It's not going to work as a starter. The Cubs essentially acknowledged that much by the end of last season. Yet, Brown could begin the season as a starter in Iowa, stretched out to forestall calamity. By midsummer, if the depth in the rotation appears likely to hold, he should be converted to short relief, permanently. Porter Hodge - On one hand, the Cubs would love if Hodge asserted himself as a legitimate setup man again. On the other hand, he'd then become a de facto locked-in guy, like Palencia, where the availability of an option doesn't actually help. They need flexibility, to survive the heavy usage every bullpen runs into at some point in the long season. Hodge, the up-and-down guy, at least comes with some pedigree and upside when it's his turn to rotate through the final reliever slot. Gavin Hollowell Luke Little Riley Martin Jack Neely Ethan Roberts Ryan Rolison Jordan Wicks - Useful because he can deliver long relief or make a spot start, Wicks is nonetheless disappointing. A first-round pick taken for his high floor, he's turning out to have a floor of being the 11th-best starter in a contending depth chart and the eighth-best lefty reliever in that mix. Not on the 40-Man, But Could Be Minor-league signings shield a team from both injuries in camp or early in the season and the thorny roster rules that make it so hard to rotate enough solid relievers through the bullpen. The Cubs have made five important ones, and one that probably won't matter. Position Players Christian Bethancourt - With Ballesteros as the only third catcher on the 40-man, it's vital to have a trustworthy veteran backstop you can keep around in Triple A in case of an injury. Reese McGuire proved the value of this role last summer, though Bethancourt is not as good as McGuire was. Scott Kingery - This is the one that shouldn't matter. Unless the team trades one of Shaw and Hoerner and doesn't do anything to replace them, he's just filler, keeping spots warm in Des Moines and being ready in case of emergency. Pitchers Tyler Beede Jeff Brigham Corbin Martin Collin Snider - None of these four have minor-league options, so once they go onto the 40-man, they have to stay with the big-league team. That makes it most desirable that at least one pitches well this spring, doesn't make the roster, but agrees to go to Iowa and wait for a shot. At least three of these four have the right to opt out of their deal if not added to the 40-man by a certain date, so expect them to compete for the final spot in the pen. The Cubs can still make other additions this winter, but they might need to come with subtractions. Picking up Rolison (the sixth lefty reliever on the 40-man, counting Wicks) leaves them teeming with fringy arms, any one of whom they can cut if the need arises and an opportunity to improve presents itself, but this group has a lot of utility. If the season started tomorrow, the Cubs would be ready. View the full article

One way or another, Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers will divide time at first base for the 2026 Milwaukee Brewers. In 2025, each was a productive hitter. Vaughn batted .308/.375/.493 in 254 plate appearances after joining the team in early July. Bauers played a much smaller role and didn't enjoy the same kind of luck, but he still hit .235/.353/.399 in 2018 trips to the plate. By now, Vaughn's emergence is extremely familiar to Brewers fans. Our Jake McKibbin also laid out the ways that Bauers blossomed last year, back in November. With Christian Yelich likely to spend nearly all his time at designated hitter and William Contreras needing a few appearances there to spare him from overuse at catcher, Vaughn and Bauers will vie for the same pool of playing time in 2026. Neither is an especially capable defender anywhere but first base, and Bauers's only fallbacks (the corner outfield spots) are places where he's fourth or fifth on the team's depth chart. Since Bauers bats left-handed and Vaughn bats right-handed, there will be at least some version of a platoon in effect. With any platoon, though, there comes a set of questions. Which of the two players involved is the better hitter, considering their performance against both left- and right-handed pitchers? If it's the right-handed one, a pure platoon—whereby the lefty sees every right-handed pitcher you can get them in against and the righty faces all the southpaws—doesn't necessarily make sense. Is one of them a better defender than the other, by a distance sufficient to make it more than a tiebreaking consideration? And finally, what idiosyncrasies of each player's swing and approach are worth considering when playing matchups, beyond simple platoon dynamics? The first question instigatea a more serious consideration of the other two, in this case, because coming off 2025, Vaughn sure looks like the better of the two hitters in a vacuum. He made both approach and swing changes after joining the Brewers that unlocked the latent talent that made him a top draft pick by the White Sox in 2019. Bauers, by contrast, was exceptionally patient and showed some lethal swing characteristics when he was healthy, but he spent much of the campaign either shelved or hampered by injuries. Here's how Vaughn hit after coming to Milwaukee, broken down purely by handedness: vs. RHP: .262/.315/.456 in 168 plate appearances vs. LHP: .403/.494/.569 in 86 plate appearances Here's the same breakdown for Bauers: vs. RHP: .238/.358/.411 in 201 plate appearances vs. LHP: .200/.294/.267 in 17 plate appearances No one has any illusions about what will happen when a southpaw takes the mound in 2026: the Brewers will start Vaughn at first base. Based on the numbers above, though, you'd also give Vaughn the nod against righties. He didn't get on base as well as Bauers did against them, but he was both more powerful and more likely to come up with a hit, as opposed to requiring a walk to reach. We're clearly in one of those situations where a direct platoon (which, given the distribution of lefty and righty pitchers throughout the majors, would give Bauers about two-thirds of the playing time) is too blunt an instrument. We can briefly consider the defensive aspect, but at first base, that matters much less than it often does when a team is platooning (for instance) a pair of outfielders. By the eye test, Bauers is a better defender. He's taller and faster, and occasionally makes the kinds of plays ranging toward the hole that are almost impossible for right-handed fielders. Vaughn, who's shorter than a typical first baseman and doesn't move well to his right, has gotten better at both footwork and using soft hands on scoops and hard grounders. Both grade out as subpar fielders, though, and by about the same magnitude. In each of the last two years, Vaughn has been tagged with -4 Defensive Runs Saved, to Bauers's -1, but that's largely because Vaughn has played much more than Bauers. Broadly speaking, they're of similar defensive value, with Bauers holding a small but not significant edge. That leaves us to figure out what differentiates the two, beyond handedness, at the plate. Since the goal should be to find some right-handed pitchers against whom it makes more sense to use Vaughn than to use Bauers, the important question is: which ones? First, let's harken back to a table I produced for a piece about Jackson Chourio's brilliant performance against offspeed pitches, earlier this offseason. I found that Chourio's unusually flat swing was part of the reason why he crushed changeups—and, indeed, that while steep swings tend to be better overall, there is one area where it works better to swing flat: on changeups and splitters. Pitch Types RHH v RHP RHH v LHP Four-Seamers Whiff Rate RV/100 Whiff Rate RV/100 Steep 20.2 -1.813 17.2 -1.045 Flat 24.2 -2.415 23.3 -2.505 Sinkers/Cutters Steep 15.1 -2.173 16.2 -1.81 Flat 15.4 -2.448 16.6 -2.23 Breaking Steep 32.7 -1.788 30.6 -1.893 Flat 27.8 -1.878 22.7 -1.907 Offspeed Steep 35.9 -2.948 35.5 -3.165 Flat 26.9 -1.422 28.4 -3.132 Pitch Types LHH v RHP LHH v LHP Four-Seamers Whiff Rate RV/100 Whiff Rate RV/100 Steep 17.6 -1.396 20.8 -1.071 Flat 22.5 -2.874 22.6 -1.548 Sinkers/Cutters Steep 15.6 -1.202 17.7 -2.82 Flat 16.5 -1.845 15.8 -3.246 Breaking Steep 30.1 -1.553 33.8 -3.246 Flat 21 -0.957 30.2 -3.186 Offspeed Steep 32.1 -2.983 36.1 -2.693 Flat 25.4 -3.603 28.2 -4.851 That's important information, though it's also incomplete. There's a bias in studying whiff rates and run values per swing based on pitch type, because (for instance) the best changeups to hit are the ones pitchers leave up, which will invite any hitter to swing flatter than if the pitch was diving below the zone as the hurler intended. Part of the fact that it's better to swing flat against changeups is that it's best to have had the plate discipline not to swing at all on the changeups that would have required steep swings. So, we have to consider swing characteristics to find the right matchups for both Bauers and Vaughn, but we also have to understand their approaches. Bauers gets a lot of credit, for instance, for the better patience he displayed last year, which pushed that OBP against righties almost to .360. It's extremely hard to get on base 36 percent of the time in the modern game and not be a valuable hitter. Bauers showed great plate discipline, which led to more walks and fewer strikeouts. Vaughn made similar adjustments, but he's at a material disadvantage when it comes to swing decisions against righties. Most of the platoon advantage derives from an opposite-handed batter's superior ability to identify pitches and anticipate their locations, relative to a same-handed batter seeing the same offerings. Keeping that in mind, let's turn to a quick analysis of the two players' swings: Jake Bauers Split Swing Speed Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) v. RHP 76.6 MPH 34° 12° 3° Pull 29.2 v. LHP 74.9 MPH 34° 13° 7° Pull 32.5 Andrew Vaughn Split Swing Speed Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) v. RHP 70.9 MPH 30° 7° 1° Pull 28.5 v. LHP 71.6 MPH 32° 8° 4° Pull 30.7 Bauers swings faster; that's not news. Since we already feel very confident that Vaughn will play any time it's possible against lefties, the big question comes against righties. Bauers's swing speed advantage is huge, but there's also a marked difference in what kinds of swings they each take against righties. Compare these slow-motion breakdowns of their moves. Untitled design.mp4 First, note the different paths their hands take right at the start of their swings. Vaughn is very direct, which is where the tendency toward flatness comes from. He keeps his hands high and works around his back side, sinking into his back leg even as he pushes off of it. Bauers, by contrast, works down to get himself in better position to start working up. He does what hitters call working underneath the front side, creating more tilt and a longer stroke. Compare a still from videos of each player early in their swing, and you can see (even with less than perfect matching of camera angle) how Vaughn stays upright, opens his hips and shoulders sooner, and lets his hands get farther from his body sooner. Bauers has more bend, and tucks the back elbow in to his ribcage more, creating lift and torque but channeling it to work vertically, as well as horizontally. Watch the animations above again, and you can see how the two swings are geared to take each hitter to a different place, via a different route. Vaughn's swing is about getting his hands around his body and into the space just beyond the left side of his torso as smoothly as possible, with his trunk rotation supplying all the power. Bauers is much more expansive. His hand path is about getting underneath his own front side, which stays slightly more closed. That gives him something firm around which to rotate, but the rotation can't all come from his trunk, because the front side is firmer. Thus, Bauers's hands and arms create much of the bat speed, generating a longer but faster swing. As you might guess, it's much harder to exploit Vaughn's swing than it is to do so with Bauers's, even for a right-handed pitcher. Vaughn is better against offspeed and breaking stuff, even against righties, because his bat path allows for a lot of mishit singles. The bat moves in an arc that leaves more of it in the hitting zone longer, generating vicious line drives when he's right on time but plenty of flares and sharp grounders when he isn't. Bauers is capable of hitting mistakes farther, but much more likely to swing and miss on a well-executed pitch that messes with his timing or moves sharply. Given the steepness of his swing, you might expect Bauers to struggle more with rising fastballs, too, but it's not so. He was so good at laying off the ones he couldn't handle last year that he forced pitchers to either walk him or come into his wheelhouse. Assuming he can do that again, Bauers is the right guy to use against fastball-dominant righties, especially if they have a firm breaking ball. Vaughn, however, should start whenever the Brewers are scheduled to see a righty who's likely to throw the kitchen sink at them, loading up on breaking balls and offspeed stuff. Of course, a pitcher will typically approach right-handed batters and left-handed ones differently, so from day to day, the Crew will also have to study the tendencies of their opponents within each handedness matchup. If a pitcher is heavy on soft stuff to lefties but goes right after righties with high-rise heaters, the team might not have a great matchup for tham at first base that day. Most of the time, though, there will be a clear right answer. The best guess is that Vaughn will start about half of the games at first base, if both players are healthy all year, with Bauers starting another 50 or 60 and the rest going to one of the team's slugging prospects as they reach the majors late in the season. With the righty in the would-be platoon being slightly better than the lefty, a perfect platoon wouldn't be wise, but a modified one could be yet another way for the Crew to find an extra handful of runs over the course of the year. View the full article

Were the San Diego Padres the runner-up in the sweepstakes to acquire Nolan Arenado? That is unknown, but the Friars were serious bidders to acquire the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman from the St. Louis Cardinals, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. Arenado was traded on Tuesday to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pitching prospect, right-hander Jack Martinez. But where the 34-year-old Arenado would have played would have been the interesting part. With Manny Machado entrenched at third base, the Padres would have wanted Arenado, a six-time Platinum Glove winner, to play first base. Currently, the Friars have a combination of Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth at first base. Another impediment in the Padres' attempt to add Arenado was how much salary the Friars would take on. The Diamondbacks took on $31 million of the $42 million Arenado is owed on the final two years of his contract. Rosenthal reported that the Padres wanted to pay less than the $11 million the D'backs will pay Arenado. Southern California was a destination for Arenado, who was born in Newport Beach and went to high school at El Toro in Lake Forest. View the full article

Now we're talking. For all that talk about how the Boston Red Sox were the lone team in Major League Baseball not to spend a dime in free agency this offseason — which really stung around the time the Alex Bregman news was announced — the front office has certainly responded in a big way. They've added their long-coveted No. 2 starter, signing Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal per multiple reports. Suarez, 30, earned his first All-Star nod in 2024 and followed that up with a 3.20 ERA and 3.21 FIP for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025. He'll immediately step in behind Garrett Crochet atop Alex Cora's rotation, with Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo likely to follow. Much more to come... View the full article

On Wednesday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins announced that they claimed utilityman Vidal Brujan from the Braves organization. To make room on their 40-man roster, the Twins Designated Mickey Gasper for assignment. (More to come) View the full article

The San Diego Padres have added two members to their front office. Dennis Lin of The Athletic is reporting that Bud Black and Wil Myers will be joining the San Diego Padres organization. Myers will be a special assignment coach in player development, and Black will be a senior advisor to baseball operations. Both have previous ties to the organization - Black as a manager and Myers as a player. Black managed the club for 9 seasons from 2007 to 2015, posting a 649-713 record with zero playoff appearances. Myers, who played for Black, had a .781 OPS and 135 home runs across eight seasons with the Padres. What are your thoughts on these hires by the club? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The Boston Red Sox need to shift their sights after losing Alex Bregman to free agency. They have their work cut out for them as they try to rebuild some trust with a rightfully frustrated fan base. Ken Rosenthal has identified two different plan B options. Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that "some in the Red Sox organization are high on free agent LHP Ranger Suarez". Suarez, 30, has had a very productive stat to his career with the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2025, he made 26 starts while throwing 157 1/3 innings. He posted a 3.20 ERA (3.21 FIP) and a 17.4% K-BB rate. MLBTR projected him to earn $115 million over five years in free agency this year. Additionally, Rosenthal speculated that Nico Hoerner of the Chicago Cubs could be an Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette alternative. Hoerner, who will be a free agent following the 2026 season, may be available after the Chicago Cubs won the Bregman sweepstakes. Rosenthal speculates that it would take "a young pitcher such as Connelly Early or Payton Tolle" and is uncertain whether Red Sox brass would be willing to part ways with either asset for one year of Hoerner. Across 665 plate appearances, Hoerner carried an OPS of .739, a 109 wRC+, seven home runs, and 29 stolen bases. Though he primarily played second base in 2025, Hoerner has spent time at all positions aside from catcher, first base, and right field. Do you think the Red Sox should add either player? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

In public and behind the scenes, conflicting information is flying back and forth in the wake of the Cubs' signing of third baseman Alex Bregman. The arrival of Bregman displaces third baseman Matt Shaw, pushing him (for now, at least) into a utility role for the 2026 Cubs. As the team ponders the endgame of its offseason, however, the front office has received multiple calls about both Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw. How likely either is to move depends almost entirely on whom you ask, and the rest of the equation is when you ask them. This is a fluid situation—perhaps surprisingly so. Sources familiar with the team's thinking say Chicago would prefer to deal Shaw, all else being equal. Though Hoerner can become a free agent after 2026 and will cost them $12 million this year, the level of organizational faith in him is much higher than in Shaw, whose uneven 2025 campaign called into question both the magnitude of his talent and his makeup. The younger player's stock is down slightly after a year in which he got a false start in the majors, found his footing in late spring, and got hot just after the All-Star break, but which ended with a thud in late September and October. Still, his trade value is higher than Hoerner's, and after trading top prospects (Zyhir Hope, Cam Smith and Owen Caissie, most notably) in multiple deals over the past two years, the Cubs could use an infusion of talent in their farm system to go with the core they've built at the big-league level. Trading Shaw could get them a player who helps in 2026 (for instance, they need better optionable pitching depth) and a prospect who bolsters that farm. One team stands out as the top candidate to match up with the Cubs on a trade for Shaw: the Kansas City Royals. They need help at second base, where Jonathan India is penciled in for this season. India batted .233/.323/.346 in 2025, struggling mightily after an early-season plunking that briefly sidelined him with a concussion. Though only entering his age-29 season, India is aging rapidly at the plate, and he's barely a viable defender at second base. Shaw projects to hit .240/.310/.408 this year, according to early and simple Marcel projections. India projects to hit .242/.335/.381, with his superior on-base skills making up for less slugging, but Shaw is a far better defender and baserunner. The Royals have the left side of their infield locked up for the long haul, and in Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, they appear set for a handoff at first base sometime in the next three years. A young, controllable second baseman would finish the puzzle for them. Kansas City also has interesting pieces to offer in trade. The Cubs were interested in both of the Royals' first-round picks last summer, had they slid into the second round. Outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Josh Hammond were both plucked from the high-school ranks, and neither will be ready for the majors any time in the next two years, but the Cubs' system needs better depth, and those guys are the caliber of prospect available in a deal like this one, where the team trading them is getting a long-term, big-league piece, but not a star. If Chicago could pry loose Gamble, Hammond or catching prospect Blake Mitchell, it would get a conversation started. The negotiation would then have to pivot to the player who would replace Shaw on the big-league roster and help the Cubs in their push toward a pennant this season. Utility man Nick Loftin is the kind of bench piece Chicago would need if they jettisoned Shaw, but he has limited value because he's not a candidate to play everyday for a contender. Starter Kris Bubic, in whom the Cubs had interest last summer before his elbow began barking and the Royals pulled him off the trade market, has just one year of team control remaining, but his pitch mix appeals to the Cubs' coaching and analytics staff. However surprising it might be to most big-market fans, though, the Royals are in win-now mode. They want to maximize the value of their time with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García and ace starter Cole Ragans. Although they might not be in a position to take on his full salary, the team would prefer Hoerner to Shaw. The Cubs would have to get more help for 2026 to give up Hoerner—perhaps both Bubic and Loftin—but the Royals are one team who might pay the required premium. For Hoerner, the Cubs would have to get a difference-making pitcher to pull the trigger on a deal, while trading Shaw would be more about aligning things better and amassing talent. The Red Sox, Twins, Yankees and Giants all could have interest in one of the two infielders, in the right deals. Other teams could enter the mix, depending on how some free-agent sweepstakes turn out, but a source in another front office said Wednesday that the Cubs are gathering information quickly, with an eye toward making a decision soon about whether to trade either infielder or proceed with the roster as-is. In that context, the Royals are perhaps the team with whom they could most easily line up. It's more likely that both players are still Cubs come Opening Day than that they're dealt, but if that changes, keep an eye on the Royals. View the full article

Which Brewers prospects are flying under the radar yet could break out in 2026? We review three names who could flip up Milwaukee’s pipeline this year. Some of these farm talents could even break onto the big stage at American Family Field as soon as this year. Included in this video are prospects Luke Adams, Luis Lara, and Brock Wilken. View the full article

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were able to reap the benefits of having Myles Straw land in their laps as a result of their efforts to secure more international bonus pool money with which to woo Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki. That part of the plan ended up failing, but the Straw experiment certainly didn’t, as he played a meaningful role for the Blue Jays during their resurgent 2025 season. But with all of the happenings that have taken place this offseason, and those that are yet to come, how will Straw fit in for the Jays this upcoming year? Will he be a contributor who helps the team succeed once again? Without question, as a former Gold Glove winner, elite defense has always been his calling card. In 2025, Straw may not have started too many games (67 to be exact), but he sure made his presence felt as a frequent defensive replacement. He ended up playing a whopping 133 games in the field. In doing so, the 31-year-old outfielder made just one error in 187 total chances. In addition, he recorded five outfield assists and 18 defensive runs saved (DRS). His 11 outs above average (0AA) ranked him in the 97th percentile in the entire league. So, practically, it felt like the Blue Jays had another Daulton Varsho playing for them in the outfield, making their defense almost impenetrable. However, Straw also managed to provide some reasonably solid offensive production along the way. He put up a .262 average and a .680 OPS, along with 51 runs scored, four home runs, 32 RBIs and 12 stolen bases in 299 plate appearances. As a result, his bWAR of 2.9 was the second-best mark of his career. But the return of Anthony Santander from his prolonged absence due to injury and the addition of Kazuma Okamoto to the roster equation for 2026 have certainly tightened up potential playing time for the upcoming season. So, will Straw’s potential to impact games be enough to keep him on the roster? On defense alone, the answer would be "of course" – he has one of the best gloves on the entire team. But including the hitting aspect of his game, his 91 wRC+, -0.5 WPA and -3.78 RE24 put him behind the likes of Addison Barger (107 wRC+, -0.5 WPA, 1.91 RE24), Nathan Lukes (103 wRC+, -0.4 WPA, 5.87 RE24), and even the lesser-used Davis Schneider (127 wRC+, -0.1 WPA, 5.62 RE24) in 2025. Moreover, that's with Straw putting up some of the best offensive numbers of his career. With the aforementioned players having also shown the ability to provide solid defense in the field, it gives them that much more value overall for the Jays. Of course, that doesn’t even include Okamoto, who could further complicate the outfield picture if used as a super utilityman. As a result, if the Blue Jays have the roster space available, Straw will likely retain his role as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner off the bench, though he could see his starts diminish considerably. But if Toronto is ultimately forced into a roster crunch with the moves they have made or will make this offseason, Straw could be the unfortunate candidate to be pushed out of a spot when all is said and done. View the full article

The bullpen sell-off at last year's trade deadline was staggering in its sweeping totality, but when you drill down to the individual moves, most weren't terribly surprising. Unloading the free-agency-bound Danny Coulombe was a given. Brock Stewart's brief run of decent health made him a clear sell-high guy. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were known trade candidates, pitching well with two-plus years of control remaining. The real shocker was the late-breaking decision to trade Louis Varland. Even for a rebuilding team, this decision was tough to figure, with Varland still under team control for five years and seemingly a great fit as the carryover building block in a reimagined unit. The message sent in trading him, and completing a bullpen teardown that left almost nothing behind: we can create more Varlands. The Twins seem to believe he is the case-in-point for the argument in favor of their course of action — a ground-up bullpen rebuild based on transitioning marginal starters into standout relievers. In fairness, he's a compelling example. Varland was a respectable talent while rising through the minors, even winning Twins minor-league pitcher of the year honors twice, but he was a 15th-round draft pick and never a true top prospect. When given the chance to start in the majors, he repeatedly came up short. But when the Twins flipped the switch from starter to reliever, first temporarily in the 2023 playoffs and then permanently last season, Varland transformed into something else entirely: a dominant force, a natural. Coming out of the pen, he was a different pitcher. The type that draws big interest from contenders at the deadline. You can make similar arguments for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but they both have pretty unique traits that enable them to thrive as relievers: Duran's unrivaled velocity, Jax's deep arsenal of high-quality pitches. Relatively speaking, Varland keeps it pretty simple. He's got a hard fastball and one good breaking ball, and he relies on that tandem almost exclusively at the expense of his lesser offerings. Theoretically, that player type — hard-throwing righty with one good secondary — is abundant in the Twins system, and almost any system really. Most teams just aren't brazen enough to go all-in on the strategy of rapidly manufacturing MLB relievers out of these fringy, unproven young arms. Yet it appears to be exactly where Minnesota's front office is headed as they sit out the free-agent relief market entirely and hurtle toward spring training with a collection of "starters" on the 40-man roster that includes: Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Andrew Morris, Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, John Klein. Some of these guys are going to the bullpen, without much delay. There's no practical way around it. This flip-switch doesn't always take, at least not right away. We saw the downside play out in the second half last year as Adams and Ohl floundered, despite possessing a similar type of prospect intrigue as Varland did when he was coming up. There's also the matter of selling young pitchers on this plan of giving up their future as starters before it has much chance to take shape. Then again, this could be another area where Varland serves as a valuable precedent to reference. Looking back now, you wonder if both team and player feel like pursuing the opportunity to start in 2024 was a waste of time. He ended up struggling badly in the majors with a 7.61 ERA and spent most of his season in Triple-A, delaying his service clock and big-league paydays at age 26. With the current SP depth chart as it is, there are going to be a lot of nominal "starter" prospects headed to the minors to open up the 2026 campaign. That is, unless they immediately embrace the relief role, where their strengths can be maximized, injuries can be reduced, and the MLB path is fast-tracked. As a persuasive proof of concept, the Twins can point to Varland, who went within the span of one-year from flameout starter toiling in St. Paul to entrenched MLB bullpen fixture, setting the all-time record for postseason appearances with Toronto. It was an amazing evolution and one that the Twins seem to be banking on their ability to repeat, several times over. View the full article

Preseason predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt. The methodology used to reach certain decisions or projected outcomes often doesn't match what fans or quasi-experts have in mind for a team in the upcoming season. With that caveat, FanGraphs' popular ZiPS projections for the 2026 season hit on the San Diego Padres on Monday. If you are unfamiliar with the system created by Dan Szymborski, he provided an introduction to this year's rankings. The TL;DR of that is these are baseline projections for players based on where they are in their career and where they are going. With that, let's dive into what ZiPS popped out on the Padres. Padres Position Player Projections The accompanying chart of projections shows that the Padres have four position-player groups projected to have 2.2 fWAR or lower. For a Padres team looking to win at least 90 games for the third straight season, which would be a first in franchise history, that is a bit much. Before we get to those groups, what did ZiPS think about the strength of the offense? It begins with right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who checks in at a 4.9 fWAR and a .265/.356/.461 slash line with 26 homers, 80 RBIs, 25 steals, and a 125 OPS+. Pretty similar to what he did in 2025. Next is center fielder Jackson Merrill at 3.6 fWAR. Merrill's projected slash line is .270/.320/.458 with 20 homers and 75 RBIs, a season closer to what he did as a rookie than he did in 2025 when he battled a couple of injuries. There was a curious situation with the shortstop and third base projections. Shortstop, with only Xander Bogaerts listed, has a 3.3 fWAR, but Bogaerts himself has a 2.7 fWAR. Third base, meanwhile, is at 3.2 fWAR, with Manny Machado at 3.2 and Sung Mun Song at 1.7. Song is also in the mix at second base. As far as real numbers, Machado comes in at .258/.321/.430 with 23 homers and 84 RBIs, Bogaerts at .259/.326/.374 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs, and Song at .238/.304/.360 with 12 homers and 57 RBIs. That covers the good positions. The next three spots are basically league average. Left field comes in at 2.2 fWAR with Ramon Laureano, who came over at the trade deadline, checking in at 1.6 fWAR, and Bryce Johnson at 0.9 fWAR, with Johnson also listed as the backup in center. Laureano has a projected .242/.314/.428 slash line. Second base has a 2.0 fWAR with Jake Cronenworth splitting time at the position with Song and Will Wagner. Cronenworth, with a 1.8 fWAR, has a slash line of .233/.335/.373. At catcher, which has a 2.1 fWAR, ZiPS lists Freddy Fermin as the starter with Luis Campusano as the backup, as expected. But when you look at the projected stats, Campusano has 111 more plate appearances than Fermin, likely due to the former also getting time at first base and designated hitter, per the playing time projections. Fermin has a 1.0 fWAR and a .234/.288/.344 slash line, while Campusano has a surprisingly high 1.9 fWAR and a .247/.327/.393 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs. Campusano has only had one positive fWAR season, coming in at 1.0 in 2023, and never hit more than eight homers in a season (2024). Friars fans would be ecstatic to see that type of production from Campusano, however. Now for the three subpar spots. Cronenworth is also the projected starter at first base, a position with a 1.2 fWAR. Gavin Sheets and Campusano are also at first in what figures to be a heavily platooned spot at this point. Sheets checks in with a .237/.303/.401 slash line with 16 homers and 59 RBIs for a 0.6 fWAR. DH, often a strength of teams or at least middle of the pack, is actually the Friars' weakest position with a 1.0 fWAR. This is figuring on a combination of Sheets, Campusano, and Machado, among others. As Szymborski writes, "I’d feel better about the Padres if they had a better starter at either first or designated hitter, but this is a solidly above-average lineup." Padres Pitching Staff Projections This is the spot that will make or break the Friars in 2026. With little depth to rely on, the Padres will need the starting rotation to remain healthy — and that counts on one injured player returning to form. The chart and the projections differ in the fWAR provided. Nick Pivetta is listed at 2.8 in the chart, but his stat projection has him at 2.3. Similarly, Michael King is a 3.3 and 2.2, Joe Musgrove 2.4 and 1.4. Randy Vasquez and JP Sears are basically even in both, with Vasquez at 0.8 and 0.7, and Sears flipped at 0.7 and 0.8. Kyle Hart is the No. 6 option at 0.3 and 0.7. Musgrove is making his way back from Tommy John surgery, so he is a definite wild card in the entire mix. Considering he had his surgery in October 2024, so should be on schedule to be a full participant in spring training and ready for Opening Day, barring any setbacks. There are no surprises here. The Padres are still hoping to add to the rotation, whether through free agency or a trade, and perhaps more than one arm. While almost everyone really likes the Friars' bullpen, ZiPS was a little more cautious than other projections. That has nothing to do with closer Mason Miller, who checks in with a 1.7 fWAR, or the setup crew of Adrian Morejon (0.9), Jeremiah Estrada (0.9), or Jason Adam (0.6). Instead, it reflects on the status of Wandy Peralta, who is entering his age-34 season, and the surprise showing of David Morgan, who was a struggling minor-leaguer before capitalizing on his first MLB call-up in 2025. Both are projected for 0.3 fWAR in 2026. Other Takeaways ZiPS doesn't hate the Friars. "The Padres look a lot like the 2025 team, with a win projection in the high 80s and 90 being well within the probable range. But it’s a fragile 90 wins," Szymborski writes. One potential position player to keep an eye on is backup outfielder Tirso Ornelas. ZiPS has Ornelas, who made his MLB debut in 2025, with a 0.9 fWAR and a .239/.309/.358 slash line with 10 homers and 49 RBIs. Where he is getting those 476 plate appearances, though, is whole 'nother question. That probably brings this full circle. If ZiPS is projecting nearly 500 plate appearances for a possible fifth outfielder, while not listing him in the graphic as an outfield option and the No. 4 DH option, you should probably take most of this with a grain of salt. There is no doubt some good stuff in the ZiPS projections for you to digest, just don't take it as a single source for predicting the future. Plus, who knows when A.J. Preller will add a bat to the first base-DH mix or another arm to the rotation? View the full article

Seeking championship-caliber players with the leadership intangibles to match, by signing the likes of Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson, the Chicago Cubs have definitively stated which veterans they're willing to spend on in free agency. View the full article

It's forecasting season! An annual staple at the dawn of the new year is the gradual release of player projections for the upcoming campaign on websites such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. FanGraphs alone hosts an entire army of projection models, each with its own estimates and methodology. Steamer uses basic underlying numbers and regresses players toward league average. The Bat is based on a similar approach, while its newer variant, The Bat X, incorporates Statcast data to a heightened degree. ATC aggregates all existing projection systems based on what specific stats they're good at forecasting – averaging the results of multiple models is thought by many to be the most reliable method of projecting players. More recently, OOPSY was introduced, the first of its kind to use pitch modelling and bat tracking data in its forecasts. Today, though, we'll be looking at the Szymborski Projection System, or ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It has been around for longer than all the other ones mentioned above, and it's rather unique in that it identifies a series of close historical comparables for each player and prognosticates performance based on how the careers of their comps unfolded. Szymborski has been rolling out ZiPS projections by team over at FanGraphs since November, and on Tuesday morning, he released the system's first batch of estimates for the Toronto Blue Jays. How does ZiPS feel about the Jays going into 2026? Position Players: Few Weaknesses Suffice to say, the forecast is strong for Toronto's infield. Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement form a potent defensive duo up the middle, and Kazuma Okamoto has enough offensive upside to be an above-average third baseman if his fielding doesn't fall off a cliff; his closest comp according to ZiPS is longtime Mariner Kyle Seager. It's easy to forget, given how well his October went, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could easily have a better regular season than he did in 2025, and advanced offensive stats have long stood by him. Of note: Two of Guerrero's top three closest comps are Albert Pujols and Rafael Palmeiro. That'll work, as will the 4.9 combined fWAR that Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman are predicted to accrue. ZiPS is clearly sold on the offensive strides Kirk made last year, and with Addison Barger and Davis Schneider available to fill in gaps in the infield from time to time, there isn't a single hole in this section of the roster. ZiPS is also optimistic about what Daulton Varsho could do in a full season after what he flashed a season ago, banking on the rare and impressive power + defense combo he boasts at a premium position. The corner outfield and DH positions are a bit of a mess in terms of playing time estimates, with more capable players than spots on the roster, but regardless of who gets the lion's share of the reps, it's unlikely that one specific bat will hold the Jays back anywhere. This is a high-floor offense that still features a diverse set of skills from top to bottom after scoring the second-most runs in the AL in 2025. If they can add another elite bat, their ceiling will be pushed as well. A Deep Bullpen Many of you may be surprised at how highly ZiPS thinks of this bullpen. At the time of writing, these projections have been released for 25 teams (the Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, and Dodgers are still to come). Toronto's combined reliever fWAR projection of 3.9 is the fourth-highest of the teams that Szymborski has sized up so far, behind only the Brewers, Phillies and Red Sox, and tied with the Guardians. While the Jays lack an A-list closer, ZiPS has the sixth-to-eighth-inning collection as one of the best in the league. It's delightfully high on Tommy Nance and gave a resounding thumbs-up to the Tyler Rogers signing. He may not be Jhoan Duran or Mason Miller, but readers would surely be delighted to see the 3.38 ERA, 74 strikeouts, 23 walks, and *eight* home runs allowed that Jeff Hoffman is pegged for across 61.1 projected innings pitched. Further down the list, ZiPS is also sold on Braydon Fisher's breakout 2025, estimating a 27.1% K rate for him this year – third-highest on the staff behind Hoffman and Dylan Cease. In fact, the model is content enough with this group to the point that Szymborski opined the team could even trade a reliever if another contender happens to need one early in the season. I wouldn't bet on that, as injuries and underperformance are always possible, but it speaks to the progress we've seen since the 2024 bullpen clocked in as one of the worst in baseball. The overarching theme is availability: There are a ton of bulldogs back there, with Eric Lauer capable of going multiple innings (as well as José Berríos if he decides he's okay with relief work), Louis Varland and Rogers as durable as they come, and enough strikeout guys to balance it out in Hoffman, Yimi García, Brendon Little, Nance, Fisher, and Mason Fluharty. Wide Range of Outcomes in Rotation This is where ZiPS isn't as confident. It likes the additions that have been made so far, with Cease good enough to be the de facto ace of the staff and Cody Ponce receiving a relatively optimistic projection as far as fifth starters go. However, between Shane Bieber's health, Trey Yesavage's lack of experience, and Ponce coming off unremarkable seasons in Japan before suddenly exploding onto the scene in Korea (he hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2021), there is a moderate amount of risk. Interestingly, Szymborski argues that because of what could go wrong here (Bieber battles injury all year, Yesavage regresses as the league adjusts to him, Ponce doesn't translate as smoothly as hoped), the Blue Jays would improve their 2026 outlook more by signing one of the remaining starting pitchers on the free agent market instead of Kyle Tucker. Because Cease and Ponce were both acquired before the Winter Meetings, this train of thought likely hasn't occurred to many fans, but it's intriguing to consider. Of course, chasing a Framber Valdez or a Ranger Suárez would come with its own set of risks and affect the team far beyond 2026. Questions exist about Valdez's makeup, and Suárez's stuff is declining amidst a questionable bill of health. At this point, I'm not at all saying they should pursue either one, but ZiPS's diagnosis of the rotation as is helps to illustrate that, while its upside is undeniable, things could unfold in many different ways, and its floor is lower than that of the dynamic position player group. On the other hand, if things go well, a potential bounce-back from Berríos would merely be an added bonus, no matter what capacity he pitches in. The Verdict So, where does this leave us? With all that happened in 2025, there's only one thing left for this team to accomplish. ZiPS likes the position they're in. Not mentioned above are the Rays, which ZiPS currently sees as likely to hover around .500 again. If we add up Toronto's projected fWAR totals by position, the sum is 45.6. Add that to the common shorthand that a 0-WAR team would win 48 games, and the Blue Jays' projected ZiPS win total rounds up to 94 – exactly the same as last year. The AL East will be strong, but one more marquee addition ought to push the Blue Jays over the edge as the clear favourites. View the full article

Alex Bregman is no longer a member of the Boston Red Sox. While there's a lot to discuss in terms of the impact of him signing with the Chicago Cubs, there’s still reason for optimism as we inch our way toward the start of spring training. Bregman leaving this organization isn’t the end of the world, even though some fans and analysts would have you believe it is. Bregman turns 32 during the 2026 season and has been a steady (if not declining) offensive player over the last few years. His quad injury in 2025, an injury he also sustained earlier in his career, doesn’t paint the picture of health that a team looking to invest long-term in a player is likely looking for. Especially a team who has the most recent medicals on that individual. Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but I don’t like this deal for the Cubs and I’m glad the Red Sox didn’t go to that number to retain Bregman’s services for the next five years. None of that is the reason for optimism though. That comes in the form of the free agents still available. Both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette remain in the pool as of this writing. Section 10 Podcast’s Coley Mick posted this interesting bit of information the morning after Bregman’s signing was announced: Well, that’s certainly something. Like Coley, I’m not expecting Tucker to the Red Sox to be announced any time soon, or at all really. There’s been nothing connecting Tucker to Boston all that tangibly, so it would be incredibly shocking to have him land with the Red Sox, especially after Craig Breslow made comments at Fenway Fest indicating a trade of an outfielder wasn’t incredibly likely. Just in case though, let’s take a look at both Bichette and Tucker to see what impacts they could offer to the Red Sox in 2026 and beyond. First, Tucker is a year older, 28, than Bichette, 27. Both are looking for long-term contracts that will keep them in whatever city they sign with for the bulk of their career. You’d have to imagine that both will likely also look for an opt-out or two with a limited or no-trade clause built into this deal. Positionally, they couldn’t be more different. Bichette is a shortstop who is open to moving to second base as quickly as this season, whereas Tucker is an outfielder who could slot in either corner outfield spots with ease in Boston, although he played right field exclusively for the Cubs last season. Both would provide stability at their respective positions, but Bichette’s skill set is much more needed in Boston than Tucker’s, even though the latter is a far superior defender. Following Bregman’s exit, there are now two open holes in the infield for Boston: second and third base. Marcelo Mayer will take one of them over, without a doubt, but that still leaves an opening. Signing Bichette to play second and shifting Mayer to third makes a lot of sense for the organization. Offensively, both players offer upgrades. They both played roughly the same amount of games in '25, 136 for Bichette and 139 for Tucker. Tucker slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ and a 4.5 fWAR. Bichette slashed .311/.357/.483 with a 134 wRC+ and a 3.8 fWAR. Both of these free agents would provide positive offensive impacts for the Red Sox. Bichette comes with the pedigree of leading the league in hits twice in his career, but Tucker offers more power. The Red Sox are surely counting on another productive season from the likes of Trevor Story while hoping that Roman Anthony becomes the superstar he is destined to be. They'll also crossing their fingers that Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela, Willson Contreras, and eventually Triston Casas all have impactful seasons. Adding either Bichette or Tucker to that lineup makes them even deeper and gives the team a legitimate threat to get on base every time they are at the plate. Notably, Boston is left-handed heavy (Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida), which could give an edge to Bichette. ESPN’s Kylie McDaniel has drastically different contract projections for Bichette and Tucker. His most recent projections, where he absolutely nailed the Bregman contract, has Tucker receiving a contract of $418 million over 11 years, with potential deferrals. After the Bregman signing, I still think this number could be in play for Tucker. I really don’t see the Red Sox doing anything like this, but the closer we get to spring training without Tucker signing could mean he’s willing to take a short-term, high AAV pillow deal to reenter free agency in the next few seasons (á la what Bregman did last year). For Bichette, McDaniel projects $150 million over five years. To be frank, there’s no way this is the number anymore. Bichette should push well past the $200 million mark now that Bregman has signed for $175 million. The best hope that the Red Sox have for Bichette is that their deferral plan pays more up front than on the back end, thus making it more enticing for the player. A $200+ million dollar player in Boston shouldn’t be a rarity, but Breslow has yet to prove he can get a long-term deal done for a marquee free agent. Both Bichette and Tucker check those boxes, so we’re now just waiting to see if the Red Sox are actual players in the deep end of the pool. I’ve been pretty vocal here on Talk Sox for the Red Sox to pivot away from Bregman and sign Bichette for a while. Now, Bregman is forcing them to do that by signing with the Cubs. I would love to see someone of Kyle Tucker’s caliber in Boston but there’s already a big enough logjam in the outfield as we speak, so bringing him in on a long-term deal would be tricky in multiple ways. But in either case, the Red Sox now have to dive in with both feet to prove to the fan base that they actually want to compete in a loaded American League East, lest they will just tread water and waste the peak years of youngsters Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony. Let's hope that's an unacceptable outcome for the front office. View the full article