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Less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, the Miami Marlins pitching staff isn't any stronger than it was when the 2025 season ended. Yes, they made a big investment in closer Pete Fairbanks, but they also found out that Ronny Henriquez would miss all of 2026 due to injury. Then they traded Edward Cabrera for a package that included only position players. Improvement is still very possible as a wave of talented pitching prospects headlined by Thomas White and Robby Snelling gets ready to graduate to the big leagues. However, it's risky to rely too much on rookies. Using Cabrera himself as an example, the former Top 100 MLB prospect was ineffective in his debut season—he didn't really put it all together until his fifth season with the Marlins. A source told Fish On First that although the Marlins would be content with their starting pitching depth, signing a veteran innings eater to a short-term deal has not been ruled out. Also, there has yet to be anything done to address the club's left-handed reliever shortage. With that in mind, the following free agents could be important, cost-effective pick-ups. RHP Zack Littell Littell, 30, was acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays as a waiver claim in 2023 when Peter Bendix was their general manager. Littell's previous teams had been using him out of the bullpen, but the Rays converted him to a starter. The experiment paid off as the right-hander made 65 starts in parts of three seasons in Tampa Bay, posting a 3.68 ERA in a total of 376 ⅔ innings pitched. Last season, Littell split his time between the Rays and the Cincinnati Reds. He handled by far the heaviest workload of his career (186.2 IP), posting a 3.81 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 6.27 K/9 and 1.54 BB/9. His walk rate ranked in the 98th percentile of MLB pitchers, per Baseball Savant. Littell's four-seam fastball has below-average velocity (92.1 mph). He also throws a slider, split-finger, sinker and sweeper. He pitches to contact, but ranked only in the 43rd percentile in ground ball rate. It is a weird but successful profile—he's been worth 5.0 fWAR since the Rays helped turn his career around. Littell allowed 36 home runs in his 32 starts last season. His ERA would probably rise in 2026 if that happens again, but the Marlins can offer him a more pitcher-friendly environment compared to his previous homes (Steinbrenner Field and Great American Ball Park). In Miami, Littell would be the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation. Our own Louis Addeo-Weiss explained why Lucas Giolito is another potential option to fill that role. LHP Martin Pérez In 2025, Pérez pitched with the Chicago White Sox, making 10 starts (11 appearances), posting a 3.54 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 7.07 K/9, 3.54 BB/9 through 56 innings pitched. It was unusual for the southpaw to spend that much time on the injured list—he threw more innings in each of the 10 previous seasons. Pérez's sinker continues to be his best pitch, with a run value of plus-seven. He throws his changeup to both lefties and righties and still misses bats with it at age 34. Having finished the season on the IL with a shoulder strain, perhaps Pérez would be available to the Marlins on a minor league deal. He would be the oldest player in camp. LHP Jalen Beeks On the reliever side of things, Jalen Beeks also crossed paths with Bendix while both were with the Rays. About two-thirds of Beeks' career innings have come with that organization. In 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Beeks had a 3.77 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 7.38 K/9 and 3.14 BB/9 in 61 appearances. He had a 46.3% ground ball rate this past season, the second-highest of his career. His changeup is his best pitch, generating a 35.2 whiff% and a dominant .110 wOBA against it. His arsenal also includes a four-seam fastball and cutter. A one-year deal in the $5 million range should be enough to bring in Beeks as much-needed lefty bullpen help. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs made big waves in the baseball world (during the Chicago Bears' comeback, nonetheless), signing free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year, $175 million deal. The Bregman deal could spark a slew of free-agent moves, especially with pitchers and catchers less than a month away from reporting to their Spring Training sites. The Royals have certainly gotten better this offseason with various free-agent signings (Lane Thomas and Alex Lange) and trades (Isaac Collins, Nick Mears, and Matt Strahm). However, for them to truly feel better about improving on their 82-80 record a season ago, they likely will need to make another move or two, especially in regard to their outfield. One free agent option that could make some sense is Starling Marte, who previously played for the New York Mets. Marte is an older player at 37. However, he has a career 35.9 fWAR in 1,530 games, and he was a Kansas City trade target a season ago. Now, Royals fans certainly have loftier expectations when it comes to a possible free-agent or trade acquisition at this time. There's still hope the Royals could acquire Boston's Jarren Duran, St. Louis' Brendan Donovan, or perhaps New York's Jasson Dominguez via trade (or Bo Bichette, though his market has heated up with Philadelphia emerging as the favorite to acquire him). However, if the window for those options passes, could Marte fit the Royals' needs in the outfield in 2026? Let's take a look at what Marte would bring to Kansas City, and what it would take for the Royals to sign him. Marte Brings Veteran Approach to Lineup After putting up a 5.2 fWAR in 2022 with Miami and Oakland, and a 3.5 fWAR in his first season with the Mets in 2023, it's been a tough stretch for Marte in terms of production. The Dominican-born outfielder hasn't hit the century mark in games played in a season since 2022, and his combined fWAR over the past three years is 1.0 in 278 games. He also had nine home runs, seven stolen bases, scored 37 runs, and collected 34 RBI with the Mets a year ago. Last season with the Mets, he played in 98 games and posted a .326 wOBA and 112 wRC+ across 329 plate appearances. However, he had only a 0.7 fWAR, primarily because he was 7.5 runs below average according to Fangraphs' Def. Conversely, his DRS (+2) and FRV (+1) are much better, though he only played 65 innings in the outfield this past season. Thus, he could see a higher fWAR in 2026 if he can be healthy enough to play more innings in the field. When it comes to his batted-ball skills and plate discipline, his walk rate of 6.7% is relatively low, as is his 0.32 BB/K ratio. He also saw a decline in average exit velocity, from 89.8 MPH in 2024 to 87.6 MPH in 2025. The same was true with his hard-hit rate, which went from 42.9% in 2024 to 40.4% in 2025. That said, his hard-hit rate was 4.4% higher than the Royals outfielders' average hard-hit rate last season (they ranked 27th in hard-hit rate last year, via Fangraphs). Marte's Statcast summary via TJ Stats isn't eye-popping by any means. He was typically average or slightly below average across many batted-ball and plate discipline categories in 2025. That said, the Royals desperately need some consistency in the lineup, especially from an outfielder who may split time in the corner outfielder positions with Jac Caglianone and/or Isaac Collins. If the Royals acquire Marte, it wouldn't be as an everyday outfielder. Rather, it would be as someone who can rotate in and out of the lineup, depending on the matchup. Surprisingly, Marte has reverse splits over his career, with a 116 wRC+ against righties and 112 wRC+ against lefties, according to Fangraphs. He doesn't need to solely hit against lefties to be productive over the course of a 162-game season, which is a plus in his favor. The Concerns With Marte When he's been on the field, Marte has been serviceable, if not slightly more. Unfortunately, his health has been an issue, especially over the past two seasons. Last year, knee issues put him on the IL, limiting him to just 98 games and 65 innings in the field. Most of his at-bats came at DH last season (he appeared 77 times at designated hitter last year), but his profile isn't exactly "ideal" for that position. His .140 ISO was 16 points lower than the league average in that category. Then again, manager Matt Quatraro likes to be creative with the designated hitter spot, so Marte could find a lot of at-bats in that spot if he makes his way to Kansas City. That said, the Royals also want to keep that spot open for Salvador Perez, whose bat is key to the Royals' lineup. While Perez is Kansas City's primary catcher, he's been able to remain productive in the later years of his career due to his ability to get at-bats at DH and innings at first base when he needs a break from behind the plate. Thus, those injury concerns could prevent the Royals from pursuing Marte seriously, or at least initially. After all, the Royals were hurt significantly by injury last season, especially in terms of pitching. Taking a flier on a guy who hasn't proven to be durable over the past three seasons would be a significant risk by JJ Picollo and the Royals front office, especially with other options available on the free agent market at this time. Should the Royals Pursue Marte? If the Royals do offer a contract to Marte, it probably needs to come late in the offseason and/or for a deal barely above a Minor League deal. It's likely that with his hitting effectiveness last year, Marte will still get an MLB deal. That said, Spotrac currently lists his market value at around $7.78 million. It seems unlikely that he will get a contract in that range, unless a team becomes really desperate this offseason. There are pluses that Marte would bring to the Royals roster next season. He brings a decent hitting profile, a veteran approach, and can play the corner outfield positions as necessary. He has also been part of successful teams that have value that can't always be measured by individual advanced metrics. Adam Frazier brought this impact to the Royals in 2024 and 2025, his intangibles affecting a clubhouse that was 56-106 in 2023, prior to his arrival. That said, would Marte bring that same value in 2026 that Frazier would? And if that's what the Royals want, why not just bring back Frazier, who has more defensive value and versatility than Marte? The only difference is that Frazier is a left-handed bat, which they don't really need right now, while Marte hits right-handed. The 37-year-old former Met is an intriguing idea for sure, especially on a one-year deal, with the hope that he could be due for a breakout if he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, at Marte's age, players tend not to trend in the right direction injury-wise, especially when they barely play the field in the previous season. My guess is that Picollo knows that, which is why we're not hearing more about Marte this year compared to last offseason, when it seemed like a deal for Marte involving Hunter Harvey was close to fruition. The Royals have plenty of time this offseason to make the splash they need to boost their postseason chances even further. However, if it's the beginning of March, the Royals outfield remains as is, and Marte is available? Well, let's just say it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world, especially on a $5-6 million flier for one season. View the full article

Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs might've taken a long time to get it done — with rumors that go back to the 2025 trade deadline depending on who you ask — but they were, finally, able to acquire a cost-controlled starting pitcher with top-of-the-rotation upside in Miami's Edward Cabrera. He and his changeup/curveball-driven arsenal will slot in near the top of the team's rotation alongside the likes of Cade Horton and, eventually, Justin Steele. What Cabrera brings to the Cubs has been well-documented here by each of Matt Trueblood & Jason Ross. He's a still-evolving pitcher who broke out in 2025 and adds the type of swing-and-miss that the Cubs were lacking in their starting five outside of Horton. It's obviously a worthwhile deal for the Cubs given their need for such a presence in the starting mix, and it represents a long-awaited impact move for the franchise this winter. That doesn't mean it's without risk, however. Whenever a trade of above-average magnitude is made, one automatically shifts focus to the players that were given up in the deal. It was an immediate realization upon the departures of Hayden Wesneski, Cam Smith, and Isaac Paredes in last offseason's deal to bring Kyle Tucker to Chicago. Of course, the context here differs dramatically both in terms of positional value, team control, and the immediate impact from an organizational standpoint. Unlike the trio sent to Houston in December 2024, Owen Caissie was the only one of the three players sent to Miami sent to contribute this year. Caissie's departure leaves the Cubs with even less power than they had in the mix following Tucker's own goodbye in free agency. But it also clears up what was sort of a murky picture between right field and designated hitter, with space now free for Seiya Suzuki and Moisés Ballesteros to operate in those two positions, respectively, and room for Kevin Alcántara to supplement them either way. The power component, though, is where the risk starts to manifest. The team lost Tucker's .218 first half ISO from 2025; now, they've let Caissie's .265 figure from Iowa head down to sunny Florida. Those are two very abstract concepts in one sentence. Tucker struggled down the stretch (primarily due to health), and we don't know for sure how Caissie's power would've translated to full-time big-league work. This is also a team that saw a more than 20-point drop on the ISO side in the second half of the season. Between the second departure of what could have been a reliable power bat and the trends with which we left 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty in terms of power-related impact in the team's lineup. Caissie's involvement in the trade only enhances it. There's always the possibility that one or both of Cristian Hernández or Edgardo De Leon turn into legitimate players at the major-league level, too. Those timelines, however, are much further down the road due to the fact that the former's bat still has a ways to go and the latter is only 18 years old. If the Cubs regret moving either player, we probably won't know for a handful of seasons. So, in terms of the risk on the Cubs' end, as far as outgoing players, it's all about the power potential they lost in Caissie and may or may not replace this winter. The much larger risk component here lies within the player they acquired himself. The knock against Edward Cabrera is that he's coming off one year of established success largely due to his inability to stay on the mound. Cabrera has been on the injured list eight times(!) since 2022, primarily due to elbow and shoulder issues. In 2025, he started the year late due to a blister, left a start in July after experiencing elbow discomfort, and landed on the IL to start September following a right elbow sprain. His 137 2/3 innings covered last season were the most in his career by a wide margin. Can the Cubs reasonably expect him to throw much more than that considering the history? There's a performance factor here, too. As good as Cabrera's stuff can be, there's also a quality-of-contact issue. He sat in the 45th percentile in barrel rate (8.8 percent) and the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate against (46.4 percent). His walk rate was only in the 43rd percentile (8.3 percent). So, while he may generate plenty on the whiff and strikeout side of things, performance concerns still abound given some of the outcomes we saw in his breakout year. It may be somewhat paradoxical to clamor for Jed Hoyer and the team's front office to make a substantial move and then voice concerns when it finally happens. That isn't what's happening here, however. These are, objectively, concerning things. A high-velocity pitcher — even utilizing it less than he once did — with a history of shoulder and elbow trouble is a worrisome addition. On the other side, one hopes the team's pitching infrastructure can, at least, help him to get some of the contact issues in order. Perhaps the most important thing to note is that while this move is an actual risk, it's a worthwhile one for the Cubs. Yes, they dealt their No. 1 prospect and some additional upside to get him. But he's also an arm that presents as much upside in his own right as anyone on this staff not named Cade Horton. To say nothing of the three years the team will get to have him inside the organization, at minimum. It's a whole lot of abstract things to tangle with, both in terms of prospects and the health of the player they acquired. At the end of the day, though, we're really not looking at a situation that would be all that different had they taken the same path to acquire the McKenzie Gore's or Kris Bubic's of the baseball world. View the full article

Last week, I gradually rolled out my ranking of the top 20 player assets in the Twins organization heading into the new year. The purpose of this annual exercise is to try and blend the big-picture view with the the short term. Accounting for the team's present and future, viewing players as pieces of a strategic vision, which players matter most? If interested, you can read the blurbs and explanations for each ranking in Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15), Part 3 (6-10) and Part 4 (1-5). But here's a recap of the list, along with each player's original method of acquisition: Walker Jenkins, OF (Draft - 1st Rd) Luke Keaschall, 2B (Draft - 2nd Rd) Joe Ryan, RHP (Trade) Pablo Lopez, RHP (Trade) Kaelen Culpepper, SS (Draft - 1st Rd) Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (Trade) Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF (Int'l Signing) Byron Buxton, OF (Draft - 1st Rd) Mick Abel, RHP (Trade) Taj Bradley, RHP (Trade) Zebby Matthews, RHP (Draft - 8th Rd) Matt Wallner, OF (Draft - 1st Rd) Royce Lewis, 3B (Draft - 1st Rd) Eduardo Tait, C (Trade) David Festa, RHP (Draft - 13th Rd) Connor Prielipp, LHP (Draft - 2nd Rd) Bailey Ober, RHP (Draft - 12th Rd) Brooks Lee, SS (Draft - 1st Rd) Ryan Jeffers, C (Draft - 2nd Rd) Marek Houston, SS (Draft - 1st Rd) Today I'm going to riff on this list a little bit, using it as an opportunity to dig deeper into the system's strengths and weaknesses, the next layer of talent, and the tightrope of a timeline that the Minnesota Twins are trying to walk. Future Meets Present Reading through the top five is admittedly a bit jarring: two veteran frontline starters sandwiched by a couple of prospects who've yet to debut, and Keaschall with his whole 50 games of MLB experience. That's the challenge that I enjoy about compiling these rankings — zooming out for a multi-year view, and trying to construct the sweet-spot vision for a winning window. The Twins are very much attempting to thread the needle of present and future. They're holding their veteran stars and passing up the opportunity to go all-in on a rebuild. To an extent I admire that, and agree with it. Ryan, Lopez and Buxton are three of the biggest success stories in modern franchise history, fully realized. You cannot take for granted that you're going to have a proven foundation this strong again anytime soon. But there's a ton of work to do around those three. It's telling that they are the only proven veteran performers in the top 10, aside from Woods Richardson who's sort of crossing over that threshold. Everyone else ranked 10 or higher is unproven youth. But it's MLB-ready youth: they've all debuted in the majors or on the verge of it. Can this wave collectively make an impact fast enough to accomplish something while Lopez and Ryan are still here? That's the story of the Twins for the next two years. Top Talent Isn't Bought (But Can Be Traded For) Looking at the origins of the 20 players on this list, not one came aboard as a free agent. The Twins have amassed most of their top talent through the draft, and usually in the first couple rounds. Only one player on the list (Rodriguez) was an international signing, which reflects a glaring weakness in Minnesota's development engine. Five of the organization's top 10 assets were acquired via trade. If the Twins were to bring in any other player this offseason who'd have a chance at cracking this top 20 and significantly shaking up the high-end talent pool, I have no doubt it would be via trade. Of course, that also requires giving to get. There is one abundant player type on my list and it's right-handed pitchers, who occupy eight of the 20 spots. Trading from this pool would make a lot of sense if the Twins are aiming to acquire, say, an impact bat. Woods Richardson and Ober are names that stand out as possibilities, if indeed the front office is shutting down requests for Ryan and Lopez. You could also seemingly live with trading one guy from the closely-bunched Matthews/Bradley/Abel group, for the right return. Rethinking the 2025 Trade Deadline When the Twins front office did what they did at the deadline, I was furious. I certainly understood the decision to sell, but taking it to such an extreme — dumping Carlos Correa's salary for nothing, trading the entire bullpen away — left me feeling extremely sour. As I factor the new additions into the rankings and consider these moves as asset exchanges, I start to feel ... a little better. Last year I had Griffin Jax ranked 10th, and this year I have Taj Bradley ranked 10th. An even swap in that regard, made palatable by the starter-reliever value gap (for now) and the two extra years of team control. The Jhoan Duran trade was one of the few moves from the deadline that I actually really liked, and this year's ranking illustrates why: Duran was ranked 11th on my list in 2025, and the Twins flipped him for a distinguished, high-upside catcher (ranking 14th on my list) and an MLB-ready pitching prospect with tons of team control (ranking 9th). You can easily see the logic in that trade. The Louie Varland trade, maybe not so much. Varland wasn't in my top 20 last year but he definitely would've been this year following a bullpen breakthrough. The Twins traded him for Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas, both of whom are on the fringe of these rankings but couldn't make the cut following rough debuts in the system. I really hope the front office is right about at least one of those guys because that decision continues to bother me. The Natural Target for Championship Contention: 2027 Do the Twins have realistic hopes to contend for a World Series this year? I would say no. The best-case scenario, and what I surmise they are aspiring for, is a .500-ish season — one good enough to rejuvenate some fan interest, and justify (in their minds) a more significant investment the following year. Because that's when it's got to happen, if it's going to. By that time, most of the top prospects featured in these rankings will have arrived. Ryan and Lopez will be in their final years under contract. Buxton will be in his second-to-last, and another year into his 30s. Hopefully a bullpen will have taken shape through the experimentation that takes place in 2026. Now, there are two hitches in this plan. First of all, there might not be a 2027 MLB season, or at least not a normal one, with the CBA expiring at the end of 2026 and many anticipating a lockout. But even taking that out of the equation, the Twins have to reach 2027 in a state where they are still intact, and willing to further invest. '“I don’t think that as the landscape, what I see right now, that we should put a significant investment into the team of (an additional) $50 (million) or $60 million,” Tom Pohlad said in a recent presser when he took over the ownership mantle. “But I don’t think we’re far off from that." Well, he and the Twins need to be convinced of it within one year. And honestly that feels like a stretch. Minnesota was the worst team in baseball in the second half of 2025 and the roster has barely changed. It's reasonable to hope that they can right the ship gradually, but in the first half of 2026, the going will be tough. It just will. They have no bullpen, and a grim defensive outlook. The prospects aren't quite here yet. They're facing some serious challenges on offense. If the front office gets to the upcoming trade deadline and they're 10 games under .500, plagued by many of the same issues of the past two years, are they really going to say, "Let's stay the course and hope everything comes together next year"? Or are they going to do what's probably prudent: trade Ryan and Lopez, and Buxton too if he wants out. Load up on more controllable young assets. Commit fully to the rebuild. I find no joy in reaching this conclusion but I think it's the undeniable reality the Twins face. The decision to hold onto Ryan, Lopez and Buxton seems more motivated by preserving a semblance of fan favor as opposed to a baseball decision. Pohlad has in fact been fairly open about that. But at some point, baseball decision-making needs to take control, and the Twins are walking a very fine line in trying to guide this current multi-generational core to championship contention within a tight one-year window. It's a notion that could fizzle out quickly with another stumble out of the gates. View the full article

It’s an honor just to be included on the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. To be eligible for election by the BBWAA, an individual “shall have ceased to be an active player in the major leagues at least five (5) calendar years preceding the election” (per the Hall of Fame’s official website). For the current election cycle, that means a player must have spent his final days on an active roster during the 2020 season. According to Baseball Almanac, 148 MLB players retired in 2020, from Adeiny Hechavarría to Zac Grotz. Only 12 of them were added to the ballot this year – that’s less than 10%. In 2019, there were 229 players who played their final game. Only 14 of them (6.1%) made the ballot for last year’s election. In 2021, a whopping 318 MLBers suited up for the last time. Chances are, less than 5% of them will appear on next winter’s ballot. So, when Mark Buehrle first appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot six years ago, it was a whole lot more than a participation trophy. It was a reflection of his tenure with the Chicago White Sox. Over 12 seasons on the South Side, Buehrle made 365 starts (390 games) with a 3.83 ERA. He made four All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, and helped the Sox to three division titles and an AL pennant. That’s why he’s on the ballot. But it’s not enough to make up a legitimate Hall of Fame case. One could argue that Buehrle’s overall body of work – those 12 years with the White Sox, as well as one with the Marlins and three with the Blue Jays – was not enough to make him a Hall of Famer. Most would agree. Yet, 45 members of the BBWAA checked the box next to Buehrle’s name last year, and 33 have already done so for 2026. That’s not going to get him in the hall, but it’s no small number either. I can’t speak to what all of those voters were thinking. But as far as I see it, any case to be made for Buehrle has everything to do with what he accomplished in Toronto. Mark Buehrle was never a superstar. He only earned Cy Young votes once, when he received five of 30 third-place votes and finished fifth in 2005. His defining trait was durability, not dominance. In 2001, his first full season, he led the AL in WHIP. Over the next 14 years, the only other categories he ever paced the league in were durability-related: starts (2004, ‘08), innings pitched (‘04, ‘05), batters faced (‘04, ‘05), and complete games (2015). Thus, to make a Hall of Fame case for Buehrle, one must be able to argue that he was uniquely durable. And it was during his time in Toronto that his durability went from impressive to exceptional. Most Hall of Fame conversations revolve around one of two words: peak or longevity. Some Hall of Famers earned their place with a tremendous performance over their best handful of seasons. Others did so by sticking around long enough to rack up high counting stats. Why do I say that most conversations revolve around only one or the other? Well, if a player had both a great peak and impressive longevity, there’s not much of a conversation to be had – he’s getting in. Buehrle, however, is a bit of an unusual case. He didn’t have an outstanding peak, but he also didn’t hang around that long. He debuted halfway through 2000 as a reliever, then played 15 seasons as a starter from 2001 to '15. I don’t mean to say that 16 seasons in the majors isn’t an accomplishment, but we’re talking about the Hall of Fame here. According to Stathead Baseball, 260 pitchers in major league history have appeared in 16 or more seasons. It's not that special. Buehrle was never an exceptional pitcher, nor did he pitch for an exceptionally long time. Yet, he was a good pitcher for a long time in a way that does still stand out as highly unusual and, arguably, (here's that word again) exceptional. The article on Wins Above Replacement (i.e., WAR) from the FanGraphs glossary features this useful little chart: Scrub 0-1 WAR Role Player 1-2 WAR Solid Starter 2-3 WAR Good Player 3-4 WAR All-Star 4-5 WAR Superstar 5-6 WAR MVP 6+ WAR According to FanGraphs, Buehrle only had one season with more than 5.0 WAR (a.k.a. the “superstar” range). Baseball Reference’s version of the metric likes Buehrle a little more; he had four seasons with at least 5.0 bWAR in his career. That's still not a ton. However, Buehrle surpassed the “good player” threshold in 11 different seasons, according to both those versions of WAR. He’s one of only 33 pitchers in MLB history to have done so. Of those 33… 25 are Hall of Famers Three are sure-thing future Hall of Famers Two would be Hall of Famers based on performance alone Two deserved far more Hall of Fame consideration than they ever received One is Mark Buehrle Pitcher Hall of Fame? Bert Blyleven Yes Bob Gibson Yes Christy Mathewson Yes Cy Young Yes Don Drysdale Yes Don Sutton Yes Eddie Plank Yes Gaylord Perry Yes Greg Maddux Yes Grover Alexander Yes Jim Bunning Yes John Smoltz Yes Kid Nichols Yes Lefty Grove Yes Mike Mussina Yes Nolan Ryan Yes Pedro Martínez Yes Phil Niekro Yes Randy Johnson Yes Robin Roberts Yes Steve Carlton Yes Tom Glavine Yes Tom Seaver Yes Walter Johnson Yes Warren Spahn Yes Clayton Kershaw Future Justin Verlander Future Max Scherzer Future Curt Schilling No but... Roger Clemens No but... Kevin Brown No Rick Reuschel No Mark Buehrle Pending Buehrle is also one of just 15 pitchers in MLB history to have made at least 30 starts in 15 or more seasons. Of the 14 others, 12 are already in the Hall of Fame (and one is Clemens). Pitcher 30-Start Seasons Hall of Fame? Don Sutton 20 Yes Greg Maddux 19 Yes Cy Young 19 Yes Phil Niekro 18 Yes Warren Spahn 18 Yes Tom Glavine 17 Yes Steve Carlton 17 Yes Gaylord Perry 17 Yes Roger Clemens 16 No Frank Tanana 16 No Nolan Ryan 16 Yes Bert Blyleven 16 Yes Tom Seaver 16 Yes Mark Buehrle 15 Pending Walter Johnson 15 Yes Even more impressive, Buehrle joins a trio of Hall of Famers – Cy Young, Warren Spahn, and Gaylord Perry – as the only pitchers to have made 30 or more starts in at least 15 consecutive seasons. Now, to be fair, some of the other pitchers on the list above had their careers interrupted by strikes and war, but that shouldn't take away from the rarity of what Buehrle accomplished. Only four pitchers have ever done it. Three of them are indisputably among the best to ever do it. The other is Buehrle. Do with that what you will. At risk of sounding like a broken record, I’m not arguing Buehrle belongs in the Hall of Fame. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. That's not the point I'm here to make. What I’m saying is that if he has a case, it’s that he was consistently above-average for so many years in a way few other pitchers have ever been. In other words, if Buehrle has a Hall of Fame case, it’s because of how his career ended. It’s because he was still a good pitcher and still a workhorse at an age when most others start to slip. In his final three seasons, from ages 34 to 36, Buehrle made at least 32 starts each year. He averaged more than 200 innings per season. His ERA over those three years was 3.78, almost identical to his 3.81 career mark. At 35 years old, he pitched his 11th and final three-win season. At 36 years old, he tied for the MLB lead with four complete games. He did all that while wearing Blue Jays blue. It’s not that Buehrle was spectacular for Toronto, but that’s the whole point. Buehrle doesn’t have a Hall of Fame case because he was ever spectacular. He has a Hall of Fame case because he kept on keeping on. And he did that with the Toronto Blue Jays. 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Another domino in the Rafael Devers saga has fallen. Alex Bregman has signed with the Cubs for five years and $175 million, with a full no-trade clause to boot. What an unmitigated disaster. Now, this incident on its own is not the problem. Alex Bregman is on the older side, and $35 million per year is a steep price to pay for a player with production that will inevitably decline at a continually steeper rate. Yes, I have said previously that the Red Sox need to reconsider their approach to free agency, and I stand by that. Their unwillingness to go the extra mile is not the issue, but it is certainly the onset of the problem spreading throughout the organization. Patient zero was Mookie Betts. After Roman Anthony's extension, I was convinced that the Sox were headed in the right direction. They had extended Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell; they also made a legitimate financial commitment to Alex Bregman in February, and it felt like they were trending upwards. The league echoed that, too. I would always hear something along the line of: The Red Sox have money to spend and prospect capital to boot, a position other front offices are jealous of. And to Craig Breslow's credit, he has made legitimately shrewd moves via trade. Acquiring Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and others filled needs. The issue with trades is that now the farm system has lost some key depth, whereas spending money allows them to keep those prospects in-house. Knowing what we do now, I can say confidently that the Red Sox would have been better off never signing Bregman at all. There's absurdity laden in that statement, and it's particularly remarkable considering he and Rafael Devers are two of the league's premier hitting talents. But I'll ask you to stick with me for a little while longer — this is a botch-job that rivals the Betts catastrophe. Wrong. In an absolute disaster class from Breslow, he managed to alienate Devers and lose Bregman. We learned on Sunday that the Red Sox would not offer a no-trade clause to Bregman, and based on the final number the Red Sox offered compared to the Cubs (roughly $3 million per year less), it's quite clear that this was the piece that tipped the scales. After he witnessed what occurred with Devers just two years into a 10-year contract, why the heck would he not demand a no-trade clause? He's been in the league for nine years and has earned his right to ask for some security, especially knowing how the Red Sox treat their superstars. He has a wife and two kids; stability needs to be a certainty, especially considering this is likely the last major deal he will ever sign. Let's turn our attention back to Breslow. He guaranteed Devers he wouldn't move off third base, or at the very least, gave no indication that Bregman would create a problem in that area. Rightfully so, Devers was upset, and somehow the situation snowballed into Devers being traded. At that exact moment, there can't be a scenario in which Bregman is not on the Red Sox until he retires. As soon as you make that choice, you must commit to it completely. It's a trade that signifies a commitment to Bregman at third over Raffy. The problem is, one guy is a homegrown talent making his organizational debut at age 17, signing a 10-year commitment to the organization. The other is on a glorified one-year, $40 million deal. So, if you choose the latter over the former, he'd better be around for a long time, no matter what the cost is. You'd better be willing to get uncomfortable. The $165M was uncomfortable for Breslow and co., but bending over backwards isn't the same as contorting your body in newfound ways. Instead, we're out a third basemen entirely, stuck with Jordan Hicks, and the "best" piece in the return, Kyle Harrison, is perpetually stuck in AAA behind a loaded up rotation with plenty of depth. Not to mention, we also traded one of the prospects we received in the package, James Tibbs, for Dustin May. I try to maintain a glass-half-full view regarding sports. It makes the viewing experience and general consumption markedly better. Yet, even I must acknowledge that there are zero positives regarding this entire situation. The team's improvement had everything to do with Anthony's debut, the front-end of the rotation getting hot, and a career season from Chapman. It had little to do with the "feelings" that Devers may have hurt in two months. They made the playoffs despite the deal, not because of it. They sorely lacked a middle-of-the-order bat in October, and with Bregman gone, they're out another one. Too often, I have seen that the Red Sox feel they have made an aggressive offer, only to be outbid in a measure that is not obscene to have gone to. It feels like a culture problem that goes deeper than just Craig Breslow. What a massive gut punch on the same day as Fenway Fest. There is hope of a turnaround with Bo Bichette being available, but if he is not the infield acquisition that is made, it will be hard to take them seriously as an AL East title contender. Yes, this is likely still a playoff team with or without another infielder. The aforementioned trades have improved the roster, but spending $0 in free agency and the lack of an additional impact bat are glaring weaknesses. Spring training begins in just over a month, and time is incredibly short. Breslow better be ready to get extremely uncomfortable, otherwise this roster he's so delicately built may find itself missing one key piece when October comes roaring back around. View the full article

As first reported by Mike Rodriguez (and later confirmed by ESPN's Alden González), the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league contract with Eloy Jiménez that includes an invitation to big league spring training. The outfielder/DH spent the final month of the 2025 season in the Blue Jays organization. Jiménez, 29, did not play in the majors last season. He spent most of the year with the Durham Bulls, the Triple-A affiliate of the Tampa Bay Rays, before he was released in July and subsequently signed a minor league pact with the Blue Jays. He didn't hit very well in Durham, slashing .278/.335/.397 for a 93 wRC+, but he really struggled with the Buffalo Bisons, going just 3-for-18 with a 48 wRC+. Despite his recent issues, Jiménez still comes with upside. At his best, he was a fearsome right-handed slugger, and he owns a career .780 OPS and 112 wRC+ in the big leagues. Not yet 30, it's more than possible he could rediscover the power that made him such a talented hitter earlier in his career. This is a no-risk signing for the Blue Jays, and the rewards could be plentiful if they help Jiménez get back on track. Featured image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Imagn Images. View the full article

For long weeks that froze over and became months, Cubs fans waited for their own personal hot stove to spark. Suddenly, in a week becoming their annual moment of truth and on an auspicious night for all Chicago sports supporters, it came together. The franchise's future came much more clearly into view. While Bears fans watched their team make a heroic playoff comeback against the Green Bay Packers, their phones lit up, delivering the news that Alex Bregman had agreed to a five-year deal with the team. Along with the trade that brought young right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera to the North Side just over 72 hours earlier, that signing announced the team's earnest intention to return to title contention in the National League. If you want to dive deeper into the story about either of the new ball players Craig Counsell's team just acquired, please check out our comprehensive coverage here at North Side Baseball. Here, suffice it to say that in making these moves, Jed Hoyer's front office showed an urgency not seen here since the days of Theo Epstein. Hoyer and his staff will probably never admit to having a perception problem, but their recent actions suggest they're aware of its existence. The Cubs are a big-market team that has enough funds to go toe-to-toe with any other club in baseball when it comes to talent acquisition. This is a 90-win club that has watched its rivals in Milwaukee seize three straight division titles and five of the last eight, while the Cubs only limped to one—in the shortened, meaningless COVID season of 2020. The North Siders finally made it back to the postseason in 2025, but that shouldn't be their measuring stick for success or failure. They should plan to win the division every year, or go down swinging in the effort. These moves show that they agree with that, even if ownership is reluctant to spend what it would take to establish that standard. A new era of Chicago Cubs baseball is about to start, and since recent events have given this club a clear direction, the season can't come soon enough. Real change feels possible. The Cubs signed Shota Imanaga on Jan. 11, 2024. They were, in a way, right on schedule this year, making their big splashes in that same sweet spot of the offseason where talent is still available but freezer burn hasn't set in. Now, we all just have to wait and see what other changes come before spring training—and how these moves pay off come Opening Day. View the full article

Tyler Black, a Milwaukee Brewers prospect yet to establish himself in MLB, has garnered a spot on Canada's World Baseball Classic roster. That came as a result of Los Angeles Dodgers superstar first baseman Freddie Freeman withdrawing from a third appearance with Canada in the WBC due to personal reasons. Black, a first and third baseman who has also played a little left field, ranks 24th among Brewers prospects. While having a solid .270/.399/.442 slash line with 42 homers and 222 RBIs across five minor-league seasons, Black has only seen 23 games of action at the MLB level with the Brewers, with a .211/.357/.263 slash line. Canada has never advanced out of pool play in its five WBC appearances. View the full article

According to Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the San Diego Padres would like to add another starting pitcher this offseason, though it comes with the caveat that the Padres may need to trade Nick Pivetta to clear salary space. Free-agent starters still on the board include Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen, Nick Martinez, Chris Bassitt, Zack Littell, Patrick Corbin, Erick Fedde, Justin Verlander, Miles Mikolas, Nestor Cortes, Lucas Giolito, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery, John Means, Alex Cobb, and Walker Buehler. With the Padres still wrestling with budget concerns and expressing an interest in trading Pivetta, it will be difficult to find a net improvement in the rotation. View the full article

Jason Ross and Brock Beauchamp analyze the five-year contract the Cubs gave to third baseman Alex Bregman just days after trading for Edward Cabrera. What does this mean for the Cubs' infield in 2026 and beyond, particularly Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner? Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View the full article

We are already a week into January. That means we are less than a week from the start of the 2026 International Free Agent Signing Period. Clubs will be scrambling to finalize deals that had been informally agreed upon with handshakes with their prospects and finding the talent that will round out their programs in the years to come. Projecting young baseball talent is hard in any context, but international free agency pushes that challenge to an extreme. In the United States, scouts evaluate high school players who are 15-18 years old. College players are typically 18-22 years old. By then, bodies have developed a little more, skill sets are a little clearer, and the physical projection window is narrower. Even then, teams often miss. Now imagine trying to do these three or four years earlier, in a foreign country, where creating opportunities means working with very young people just entering the early years of growth and development. On the international market, scouts begin following players at 13 or 14 years old—sometimes even younger. These aren’t fully formed athletes yet; they’re children whose bodies, strength, mechanics, and maturity will change dramatically before they turn 20. Yet by 16 or 17, many of them are signing professional contracts with Major League Baseball organizations. The projection gap is enormous, and the risk is baked into the process. When comparing U.S. and international scouting, several key differences stand out. U.S. players are typically scouted between ages 15 and 21, while international prospects are often evaluated as early as 12 to 16. This age difference also affects body maturity: domestic players are mostly physically developed, whereas international teenagers are still rapidly growing and changing. These factors contribute to the relative risk of bust, which is generally medium for U.S. players but very high for international signees, making projection and player evaluation considerably more challenging. Players drafted in college, instead of early on in their formative years of 17/18, are at a much higher risk of being a bust than international players. Take for example Twins outfielder, Austin Martin. Martin was not an international player, but he attended Trinity Academy in Florida and while there, he played for Team USA at the age of 14 in 2014. In 2017, he was drafted by Cleveland in the 37th round, he turned down the offer and went to Vanderbilt. For him, it was an opportunity to mature physically and emotionally. He had an outstanding collegiate career. He was considered the top hitter in the 2020 draft and as the fifth overall pick by the Blue Jays, he got a $7mm signing bonus. Things haven't come easily for Martin in pro ball. He came to the Twins in the Jose Berrios trade in 2021. Since then, he has bounced back and forth between the minors and the big-league club and has yet to secure a full-time roster spot, with what was a slam dunk draft pick. On the international market, scouts must project what 13-14-year-olds will look like when they are 23-27, a nearly impossible task. Before 2020, the signing date was July 2. Since 2021, January 15 has aligned scouting with the offseason and provided better structure. Twins Daily, specifically ramps up reports for prospects and international signings for January 15, so check out our coverage as we move forward. This article is not to say that international scouting doesn’t work. In fact, it has worked for a lot of teams, including the Twins, but it’s not as simple as showing up to a scouting event like in the U.S. and leaving with the confidence that the junior in high school has the potential to be ready in a year or two, or after college. It means they have to “see the potential” and know that those kids could be developed into an asset to the team. At a minimum, someone they can get good trade value for. International scouting is built on long-term relationships, trust, and projection. While scouts look at players in their younger years, they cannot sign until they are 16, which means a lot of watching, evaluating, and building trust with the families. It’s selling your organization’s facilities in the Dominican Republic, but also in the United States. The Twins have very nice arrangements for young minor leagues with new complexes built in Boca Chica and in Fort Myers. In 2017, the Twins opened their baseball academy in the Dominican Republic on Tuesday, hosting a grand opening in Boca Chica with the Phillies, who share the facility. The two clubs entered a partnership to help build the $18 million academy, which is housed on 45 acres. It features six baseball fields and housing for prospects. It will allow prospects for both teams to live and train at the facility while also participating in education and cultural development programs. Parents know their child will be fed. Most organizations provide these players with an education so they can reach a GED which will serve them well if baseball isn’t in their future. The same is available when the recruits come to Fort Myers in Florida. The Twins have the Lee Sports Complex which comes with the Development Academy, and a 112-room residence hall for players, coaches and staff. While it hosts the Clubs spring training, it serves as a year-round facility for the international students where they can not only train, but an education as well. They also have access to common areas and a play room for down time, when they get it. Adding to the complexity, teams often unofficially agree to deals years before the signing date. These “handshake agreements” are an open secret in baseball and mean that clubs commit significant resources to players before they have fully matured, leaving the team with even less margin for error. They must also be registered with Major League Baseball before any signings and meet residency requirements, meaning they must reside outside the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. This article at Baseball Tips does a great job of breaking down what is expected from all sides of the coin. Still, the heart of the challenge remains: projection is guesswork, and the volatility of international talent is extraordinarily high. Some mega-bonus signings never reach the majors. Others, who received far smaller bonuses, became All-Stars. For every highly touted prospect, dozens never leave the complex leagues. If the Twins want to stay competitive and do so within a budget, creating a strong farm system of all signees internationally and from the draft is the only way to do that. With all of this complexity swirling around the international landscape, one big question rises for Twins fans: How well has Minnesota navigated this uniquely challenging market? View the full article

In 2025, Craig Counsell had one of the better starting rotations in the big leagues, based on results. Several of the successes won by the 2025 version of this club emanated from the bump. Yet, the team ran out of starter steam in the postseason, so they made a significant addition to their mix this week. Let's review where the rotation stands, as the beginning of spring training comes into view on the horizon. Cade Horton Featuring an outstanding array of pitches and command that earned him second place in last season's NL Rookie of the Year voting, Horton is the ace of this staff. Entering last season, we knew his fastball, slider and curveball had a chance to be special. However, what he did with his changeup, a pitch that yielded just a .115 average from opposing batters last season, took him to a new level. Only his durability is in question. He missed the team's crucial final stretch heading into the postseason with a rib injury, and was denied his playoff debut after the Cubs were ousted from the tournament before he could recover. Matthew Boyd The 34-year-old veteran returns to the rotation after enjoying perhaps his best season in the big leagues. In his All-Star campaign, Boyd showed both command and composure. With an excellent walk rate and feel for several pitches, he gutted his way through a season in which his workload far exceeded what the team expected to need from him when they signed him to a two-year deal last winter. Depending on how quickly newcomer Edward Cabrera ascends through the rotation, Boyd's spot could slide, though he still stands as one of the vital pieces of this staff. Edward Cabrera The shiniest new toy at 1060 W. Addison (at least on the pitching side), Cabrera, 27, is a near-bottomless well of talent and upside. While he has certainly struggled with injuries, the strikeout-heavy righty features a dominant curveball with which he punched out 54 batters last season. His changeup borders on being a splinker, with the ability to push it past 95 MPH. Cabrera will also enjoy better offense and defense in support of his outings than he received in Miami. If he stays healthy, he'll be the bat-misser the rotation lacked in 2025. Jameson Taillon Pitching just shy of 130 innings last season, Taillon had a 1.06 WHIP in 2025. He, too, excelled at limiting walks, and kept the team in the game nearly every time he took the mound. In only five of his 23 starts did he hurt the team's win probability by more than 2.7%. Entering his 10th major-league season, Taillon is a steady presence in the clubhouse. You know what to expect from him every five days on the mound, and every day off of it. For a team with a stable of young starters, his veteran presence will augment the youth movement. Shota Imanaga In a 2024 season that ultimately ended in oppressive disappointment for the Cubs, no one endeared himself more to fans of North Side baseball in Chicago than Imanaga. He was cruising, legitimately flirting with a 20-win season, and warranted Cy Young talk until sputtering in the second half of the campaign. Sadly, in 2025, the charismatic starting pitcher more closely resembled what he was in the second half of his rookie season. A hamstring injury kept him out longer than anyone had hoped, and throughout the second half, he was plagued by home runs that often put the Cubs in an early hole. In what will likely be his final year in a Cubs uniform, Imanaga looks to bounce back with a return to his 2024 form. That will depend on whether or not he can execute his splitter better, especially throwing it below the zone for chases. Should he reclaim that command, the fan favorite could be a sneaky weapon—albeit an expensive one. Justin Steele An elbow injury early in 2025 wiped out nearly all of the southpaw's season. The setback led to Steele's second career Tommy John surgery. His injuries, in fact, created the impetus for the Cubs to seek and develop other viable starting pitchers, which led to the rotation's current composition. Not since his impressive 2023 16-5 season have we seen what Steele can really do. His cut-ride heater and slider form a solid combination. An intentional and gradual ramp-up will be the key to Steele's success in 2026. Luckily, the squad has some depth, with Colin Rea and Javier Assad. All told, his return will be a welcome one, but it needn't be hurried. The five probable starters in this forecasted rotation each bring something unique to the table. They're not a dominant group, but they've moved from perhaps average to a tier higher. Their depth should ensure that they stay in contention throughout 2026, and if they reach October, they'll be better-equipped to advance this time. View the full article

Dear readers, today we are going to take you back to 1982, when the Milwaukee Brewers reached the World Series for the first and only time in franchise history. It seems like only yesterday that this 22-year-old sat intently before the television, watching every minute of every game of that exciting Series. This multi-part series talks about how the Brewers got there and offers a chronological timeline of the 1982 campaign, including player profiles, game recaps, and other events that affected the season. The 1981 Brewers Season, Complete With a Work Stoppage In 1981, the Milwaukee Brewers reached the postseason for the first time in franchise history, albeit during a strike-shortened campaign. The stoppage began on June 12 and lasted until the players and management reached an agreement on July 31. An All-Star game was played on August 9, and the regular season resumed the next day. The season was split into two halves, with first-half winners playing second-half winners in both leagues for the right to advance to the League Championship and the World Series. The Brewers finished three games behind the New York Yankees in the first half, and it looked like the second half was going to be more of the same, with Milwaukee trailing the Detroit Tigers by three games with only 17 games to go in mid-September. But the Brewers got hot and won 11 of those games and edged both Detroit and Boston by 1 ½ games to win the second-half title in the American League East. Sadly for Milwaukee, the Yankees took three of five games to end the Brewers' season. After the final game, Brewers manager Bob Rodgers said, “We came a long way. This was Step One. Step Two will be in spring training” (Wisconsin State Journal, October 12, 1981). Reliever Rollie Fingers was rewarded for his major league-leading 28 saves, 333 ERA+, and 0.87 WHIP season by winning both the Cy Young Award and the Most Valuable Player Award in the American League, one of only 11 hurlers to claim both honors in the same season. The Brewers Offseason and the Beginning of Spring Training 1982 The Brewers made few moves in the off-season. Their biggest deal was when they traded pitcher Rickey Keeton to the Houston Astros for reliever Pete Ladd. (The pitcher nicknamed ‘Bigfoot’ spent most of 1982 at Triple-A Vancouver but was promoted to Milwaukee in mid-July when pitcher Jamie Easterly went on the disabled list.) Also, just before Thanksgiving, Lorn Brown stepped down from the Brewers radio team when flagship station WISN announced that Bob Uecker’s workload would be increased to six innings, while Brown would be the play-by-play broadcaster for only three innings (Wisconsin State Journal, November 20, 1981). In December, Paul Molitor—who played only 46 games in the outfield and 16 at designated hitter due to ankle surgery—and Brewers management discussed a potential move to third base for the 1982 season (Capital Times, December 4, 1981). The Baseball Hall of Fame called Hank Aaron in January, along with outfielder Frank Robinson. The former Milwaukee Brave and Brewer was named on 406 of the 415 ballots cast. Wonder why nine people left him off their lists… In more broadcast news, it was announced in early February that former Brewer Mike Hegan would join Steve Shannon to do broadcasts for WVTV. The Milwaukee station planned on airing 60 games during the regular season (Wisconsin State Journal, February 4, 1982). Outfielder/designated hitter Larry Hisle, who had played in only 44 games the previous two years, was making his third attempt at a comeback for the Brewers (The Capital Times, February 22, 1982). Unfortunately for Hisle, he would last only nine games during the regular season before going on the DL once again after rotator cuff and other surgeries on his right shoulder. He would announce his retirement after the season. Remember Bob Rodgers, the prophetic Brewers manager? In early March, he told reporters that “If we don’t win, I’m gone. It’s as simple as that” (The Capital Times, March 4, 1982). How did he do? Find out in Part 2. View the full article

Edward Cabrera brings frontline stuff and cost-controlled youth to the Chicago Cubs' rotation, but is the 27-year-old's injury history too blinding to ignore? View the full article

Alex Bregman will be the straw that stirs the drink for the Cubs over the balance of this decade. He joins the team as a dynamic offensive force designed to make up for the team's otherwise left-leaning core pieces, and as a forceful personality who fits perfectly into their clubhouse. Craig Counsell's daily duty of filling out the lineup card just got a lot easier. Let's project a few ways the team's batting order could take shape each day, based on matchups and the talent they've collected over the last handful of years. First, when they face a right-handed starter, things seem likely to shake out in pretty straightforward fashion: Michael Busch - 1b Alex Bregman - 3b Ian Happ - lf Seiya Suzuki - rf Moisés Ballesteros - dh Nico Hoerner - 2b Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Miguel Amaya - c Dansby Swanson - ss This (effectively) has the Cubs alternating left- and right-handed batters all the way down to the bottom of the order, where righties Miguel Amaya and Dansby Swanson double up. It gives them four extremely well-established on-base standouts at the top of the order, each with 20-homer power, and it leaves lots of upside clustered into the remaining spots. Bregman's arrival takes considerable pressure off Moisés Ballesteros, pushing him down to fifth in this configuration of the lineup. Speaking of which, against lefties, Ballesteros might not need to start at all. Here's one way the team could set up against southpaw starters. Nico Hoerner - 2b Ian Happ - lf Alex Bregman - 3b Seiya Suzuki - dh Tyler Austin - 1b Dansby Swanson - ss Carson Kelly - c Kevin Alcántara - rf Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Swapping out Michael Busch and Ballesteros for Tyler Austin and Kevin Alcántara makes the team very stout against lefties. Bregman's .280/.372/.489 career line against lefties comes with more walks (196) than strikeouts (181); he's the lefty-masher the lineup needed in its upper half. Subbing Busch in for Austin as soon as the opponent goes to a righty would still leave him protected by righty sluggers Suzuki and Swanson, so the opposing manager would be in a tough spot if they sought to bring in another lefty to face Busch the next time around. One notable name doesn't appear in either of the formulations above. Thus, let's consider a third setup, most likely to be deployed against lefties but designed to maximize different strengths, and perhaps platoon-neutral. Nico Hoerner - 2b Alex Bregman - dh Ian Happ - lf Seiya Suzuki - rf Michael Busch - 1b Dansby Swanson - ss Pete Crow-Armstrong - cf Miguel Amaya - c Matt Shaw - 3b Bregman is a good enough hitter to add value even when he doesn't play the field. Sliding him to the DH spot occasionally makes room in the lineup for Matt Shaw, whose opportunities will otherwise be limited for a team now loaded with infield options. Shaw had an uneven rookie season, but he's developed into a plus defender at the hot corner, and when going well, he can be a boost at the bottom of the batting order, too. This is probably the best defensive alignment the team can muster, though to truly maximize that, they could swap Alcántara in for Suzuki in right field. Without Bregman, lots of these potential setups left Ballesteros or Austin batting cleanup, or Busch in a key lineup spot against lefties. They were likely to be reliant on getting the good things they've seen from Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miguel Amaya and Shaw over the last two years, without the bad. That's a lot to hope for, and they no longer need to pray on those dice rolls with the same fervor. Bregman ties the lineup together, and even if the group lacks an elite power hitter, they've achieved depth they had lacked ever since they traded away the core of their championship team. View the full article

In case you missed it, the Cubs made a move to acquire right-handed starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins. In exchange, they sent over three prospects: Owen Caissie (No. 47 prospect overall), middle infielder Cristian Hernandez (No.11 CHC prospect), and corner infielder Edgardo De Leon. It’s a big move for the Cubs’ rotation for several reasons, but here at Brewer Fanatic, we only care about how it affects us on the north side of I-94. We’ve already established that Milwaukee’s front office doesn’t let the moves of even its closest rivals drive the pace at which they operate their offseason, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t been paying attention. They weren’t looking to acquire Cabrera, nor did they care about any of Chicago’s prospects sent to Miami,but his price could dictate what other teams may be willing to pay for Freddy Peralta. Let’s start by getting a high-level overview of how these two starting pitchers stack up against each other in 2025: Freddy Peralta Edward Cabrera IP 176.2 137.2 ERA 2.70 3.53 ERA- 65 83 FIP 3.64 3.83 FIP- 88 93 fWAR 3.6 2.0 K% 28.2% 25.8% BB% 9.1% 8.3% On paper, it seems like Freddy was clearly the better pitcher. He had better results in every major statistical category other than walk rate over a larger sample size. If you want to get into the weeds about what Cabrera did better, you can point out his slightly higher chase rate or his greater run value efficiency with breaking pitches, but ultimately, he didn’t do as much for the Marlins as Peralta did for the Brewers. However, performance over a single season or even over several past seasons is far from the only thing that front offices look at when assessing trades. Another important factor is the player's future value. Team control and future upside are both key decision-making components as well. 2026 will be Peralta’s final season under team control, which is exactly the reason Milwaukee is tempted to trade him. Making a competitive offer to retain him in free agency simply doesn’t fit with their organization’s modus operandi, and like Devin Williams, Corbin Burnes, and Josh Hader, selling high on pitching talent is more their speed. For the acquiring team, the incentive to acquire him would be to serve as a one-year boon to a rotation that’s ambitious about making the playoffs but may not have the pieces to do so right now. This could be because of waiting on younger talent to debut and/or develop, injuries, or a mix of several factors. The Cubs’ acquisition of Kyle Tucker last offseason fell into this camp, giving them a much-needed boost to make the postseason for the first time since 2020. Of course, this comes under the assumption that the player will be as productive as usual in that one year and not face injuries or steep regression over a short-lived tenure. On the other hand, Cabrera is much more of a long-term investment. He won’t hit free agency until 2029, and up to that point, he’ll come at an affordable price. He made just $1.95 million in 2025 and agreed to a $4.45 million contract with the Cubs shortly after being traded. Cabrera is also younger by almost two years and, according to our good friends at North Side Baseball, has a lot of potential just waiting to be unlocked by Chicago’s pitching development staff. Before we assess how Peralta’s market value compares to that of Cabrera’s, it’s also important to touch on the state of other starting pitching offerings, specifically free agents. It’s a fairly skewed set of offerings this winter with Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez likely exceeding the financial restrictions of most MLB organizations while also being significantly more enticing than the rest of the offerings. This makes someone like Peralta, who is great but not quite elite, an appealing middle-of-the-road option, especially given his team-friendly $8 million salary for this upcoming season. In turn, this gives the Brewers’ negotiating leverage as they have no obligation to let him go but would be more than willing to move him for the right price. In exchange for a player with two more years of team control, respectable promise, and recent numbers that are a step below what Peralta posted in 2025, the Marlins were able to get three prospects, including one that was in the MLB Top 100. Should Peralta expect to get something similar? To me, the answer is complex. Because of his cheap contract, it’s not the end of the world if Milwaukee doesn’t get anything out of him by way of prospects this year. In fact, earlier in the offseason, Matt Arnold said it wasn’t something he was thinking about, but that could be yet another front office psyop. But if it is true, it leads to a situation where he’d only be traded if the return was significant. A recent move that serves as an apt comparison is the deal that sent Burnes to Baltimore. Similarly, he had a single year of team control remaining, and Milwaukee turned him into Joey Ortiz (No. 99 overall prospect in 2023), DL Hall (No. 97 overall prospect in 2023), and a compensatory draft pick. A fairly good haul, especially considering that draft pick was used to select Blake Burke in 2024. There was more urgency to trade Burnes, but he was also considered more of an ace that could be slotted at the top of nearly any rotation in MLB at the time, which leads me to believe Peralta could absolutely net a similar prospect package. With all of this in mind, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see Peralta bring Milwaukee a compelling set of prospects. He has a more established body of work and, along with his contributions on the mound, can also bring leadership and other veteran qualities to any clubhouse. The Brewers won’t let him go for just anyone, but the Edward Cabrera trade established a baseline of what teams should expect to pay if they want him for 2026. View the full article

Zebby Matthews did not deliver the season many had hoped for in 2025, especially after his breakout minor league season. The surface numbers were rough, the contact quality was worse than expected, and the results often failed to live up to the promise that followed him up the minor league ladder. Still, writing him off after one uneven year would miss the bigger picture. When you look beyond the ERA and dig into how Matthews actually pitched, there are plenty of reasons to believe his 2026 season could look very different. The run prevention was ugly. Matthews finished his rookie campaign with a 5.56 ERA across just under 80 innings, and the batted ball profile worked against him. Too many balls were hit hard (38.8 Hard-Hit%), and too many were lifted into the air, leaving little margin for error. Even the expected numbers did not entirely bail him out, reinforcing that hitters were squaring him up more often than a pitcher with his stuff should allow. That said, the Twins have every incentive to keep giving Matthews opportunities. He currently projects to be one of the team’s options for the back of the rotation, but there are plenty of arms to consider, including David Festa, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Simeon Woods Richardson. The rotation could also look very different by midseason. With trade speculation swirling around established arms, Matthews is positioned to climb the depth chart simply by staying healthy and available. Opportunity alone matters, and Matthews is likely to get it. What makes that opportunity intriguing is how strong his underlying performance actually was. Matthews posted a 3.79 FIP and paired it with an 18.1 K-BB% that sat well above league average. Those numbers paint the picture of a pitcher who was doing many things right, even as the results lagged behind. For a young starter, that combination is usually a sign of future growth rather than a dead end. There was also tangible progress in his raw stuff. Matthews added velocity to his fastball, pushing it from 95.2 mph to 96.3 mph without sacrificing movement or shape. The issue was not quality but approach. Matthews lived in the heart of the strike zone far too often, and big league hitters rarely miss those mistakes. A more selective fastball plan, especially later in counts, could go a long way toward cutting down the damage. His slider remains the calling card. Thrown harder (88 mph) with tighter action, it became a legitimate bat-missing weapon against right-handed hitters (39.6 Whiff%). Matthews consistently buried it on the outer edge, generating chases and whiffs while limiting quality contact (0.260 xwOBACON). When the slider stayed down, hitters had little chance. When it drifted back into the zone, especially against left-handed bats, it became vulnerable. That is a command refinement issue, not a stuff problem. His splits against lefties are where the puzzle gets interesting. Matthews' K-BB% barely changed by handedness, yet the run prevention gap was massive. He held righties to a 2.73 FIP and lefties to a 4.97 FIP. That points almost entirely to home run susceptibility rather than to an inability to compete. Against left-handed hitters, most of his pitches were punished when they caught too much of the plate. The exception was his changeup. Quietly, it was his best answer to lefties. Matthews located it well on the outer third and avoided the heart of the zone, keeping contact relatively soft. However, he rarely threw the pitch with two strikes and only had one strikeout using arguably his best offspeed pitch for lefties. The result was a pitch that looked useful but never had the chance to impact outcomes. This could be a confidence issue for a player getting accustomed to big-league hitters. Pitch usage is one of the easiest adjustments a pitcher can make, and Matthews feels like a prime candidate. Reducing reliance on fastballs, especially in finishing counts, would better leverage his deep arsenal. Trusting the changeup against lefties, particularly when ahead, could directly address his biggest weakness from a year ago. These are not mechanical overhauls or health gambles. They are strategic tweaks. When you zoom out, Matthews still checks every box teams look for in a mid-rotation starter. He has size, velocity, multiple usable pitches, and command that already grade above average. The foundation is there. The challenge is aligning his approach with his strengths. That is why 2026 feels less like a crossroads and more like an opportunity. If Matthews makes even modest adjustments to how he sequences and deploys his arsenal, the gap between his peripherals and his results should narrow quickly. His 2025 season may have been disappointing, but the 2026 season has all the ingredients for a breakout. Do you believe Matthews can break out in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Royals have brought on some key free agents this offseason, with dominant setup man Matt Strahm from the Phillies alongside some additional veteran depth pieces in Kevin Newman and Abraham Toro, who will look to compete for a starting role in spring training. However, with the addition of Strahm has come the losses of Angel Zerpa and Hunter Harvey to the Cubs, Taylor Clarke, and Jonathan Bowlan to the Phillies. The losses of Zerpa, Bowlan, and Clarke combined for 164 1/3 innings with a combined 3.76 ERA and a 7-5 record. Reuniting With Scott Barlow Brings Leadership & Consistency The 32-year-old veteran righty signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal with a club option for 2027. Barlow started his career in Kansas City, logging 302 innings with a 133 ERA+ and 440 games. His best seasons came in 2021 and 2022, when he logged 148 innings with a 188 ERA+, a 12-7 record, 40 saves, 46 RAR, and 2.30 ERA. He was a nightmare for hitters in this two-year span, generating a 33.6 hard hit rate, 21.7 line drive percentage, and 2.2 HR%. After struggling in 2023, the Royals sent him to the Padres for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams at the deadline. After appearing in 63 games with the Royals with a 5.35 ERA, RA9 of 6.05, and -4 RAA. He dominated, finishing with his third-best ERA of 3.07 in 25 games and cutting his RA9 in half to 3.99. After one year with the Guardians in 2024,he ranked in the top 94th percentile in whiff rate (33.6), 84th percentile in K% (28.2), 82nd percentile in barrel% (5.8), and 92nd percentile in hard-hit% (32.6). Last season, the Reds brought him in on a one-year deal, where he ranked in the top 1% in hard hit percentage at 30.5 and top 4% in average exit velocity at 86.2. In 68 1/3 innings with the Reds, he finished with a WPA of 1.7 and a career-best 0.86 clutch. He made his first postseason appearance after the Reds made a miraculous NLDS appearance, where they were dominated by the Dodgers. One of the few bright spots for the Reds in this appearance was Barlow’s 1 2/3 innings pitched against the powerhouse Dodgers offense. With the Reds down 5-0 in game two, Barlow entered the game in the bottom of the fourth looking to limit damage. Not only did he do that, but the Dodgers couldn’t find an answer to his sweeper and curveball. He finished the fourth inning, striking out the side, putting away backup catcher Ben Rortvedt on five pitches, Ohtani on seven pitches with a swing and a miss on a low sweeper, and finishing off the inning with a dominant four-pitch strikeout on back-to-back whiffs with the sweeper on Betts. He’d face two batters in the fifth with a lineout by Freeman before another strikeout with his Sweeper against Max Muncy on five pitches. Why is his appearance important, you may ask? After being pulled for Connor Phillips with two outs, the Dodgers would extend their lead with a home run from Teoscar Hernandez. Before Phillips would be tagged with two more runs the next inning with a two-run homer by Ohtani. Barlow will bring a five pitch repertoire led by his +5 run value in his sweeper that generated a whiff rate of 39.4, K% of 33.3, and hard hit% of 19.1, following close behind is his 92 MPH fastball at +2, with a .235 xBA, .476 xSLG, and 21.3 usage right, his curveball is an even zero rating with a 47.6 K%, .149 xBA, and 22% putaway percentage, his worst pitch was his slider at -2 giving up four home runs and allowing a .255 average when used. Finally, his sinker was primarily used against right-handers, coming at a +1 run value, generating a xWOBA of .351. He’d be fairly cheap coming back to a team where he had the best seasons of his career and recent postseason success at a projected two-year, $2.6 million salary. View the full article

This week's Edward Cabrera trade was simple from the Chicago Cubs' perspective. Coming off a wild-card berth in 2025, they believe he can make their starting rotation even stronger. Cabrera is coming off a career year and under club control through 2028. The right-hander's long list of past injury issues cannot be ignored, but by accepting that risk, the Cubs were able to get him without depleting their farm system. In exchange, the Miami Marlins received outfielder Owen Caissie and infielders Cristian Hernández and Edgardo De Leon. Here's what Marlins fans should know about each of them. Owen Caissie Caissie, 23, is the main piece of the return. This is a player who the Marlins have had their eye on for a while now, dating back to last offseason when they were in discussions with the Cubs about a potential Jesús Luzardo trade. These teams held Cabrera talks leading up to the July 2025 trade deadline and Caissie was made available back then, sources tell Fish On First. In Triple-A this past season, Caissie slashed .286/.386/.551/.937 with 22 home runs, 55 RBI and a 139 wRC+. The Cubs called him up towards the end of the season, and in 12 games, he slashed .192/.222/.346/.568 with one home run, four RBI and a 56 wRC+. He will very likely be on the Marlins Opening Day roster, slotting in right field, a source says. Caissie's swing decisions were a lot better compared to 2024, when he also played at AAA. He chased less outside the zone, going from 29.7% to 25.7%. He also made contact 52.0% of the time after only making contact 47.5% of the time the previous year. In Triple-A, Caissie had a barrel rate above 15%, hard-hit rate above 53%, average exit velocity above 92 mph, an xwOBA above .380, and a whiff rate under 28%. The only three MLB players to check all of those boxes last season were Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Ben Rice. QndvdmxfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdaUkFsZFFWMU1BQUFjR1hnQUhBZzVYQUZrQkJsWUFVRndCVVZFRUF3cGRDUXBV (1).mp4 In his first taste of major league pitching, Caissie struck out 40.7% of the time against a 3.7% walk rate. Both of those marks will obviously need to improve for him to be successful. Pitches up and in to the left-handed hitter have given him problems, as shown by the graphic below. That is something the Marlins organization was able to address with Kyle Stowers last season. Slight mechanical adjustments turned him into an All-Star. YkI5OXdfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkZWUlUxVlNYZ0lBRFZ0V1ZBQUhWVk1EQUFNR1ZWUUFDMUJUVWdFRUFBQlNBQVpU.mp4 His power potential is elite, but expect Caissie to have growing pains in the majors. In a best-case scenario, his first full season of production could look similar to what James Wood provided for the 2025 Washington Nationals, consistently blasting extra-base hits to left-center field at loanDepot park. Cristian Hernández Hernández, 22, was a highly touted international prospect who signed with the Cubs out of the Dominican Republic in 2021. Unlike Caissie, he has not been showing much game power in the minors, with only 24 home runs through five professional seasons. This past season, in 115 games at the High-A level, he slashed .252/.329/.365/.694 with seven homers, 53 RBI, 54 stolen bases and a 99 wRC+. He was left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and did not get selected. One positive is that Hernández has been putting more balls in play as the years go by. After posting a 30.3% strikeout rate in 2022, he has improved every year, dropping down to a 20.7 K% in 2025. "De Leon’s profile questions surround his bat-to-ball skills, as he ran a 34% whiff rate in 2025," notes Geoff Pontes of Baseball America. A lot of refinement is needed. De Leon has played both corner infield and both corner outfield positions in the past. He should be assigned to Low-A Jupiter. View the full article

As someone who covers the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox for a living — and considers themselves a fan of both teams, though the Cubs will always be my childhood favorite — there is a really complicated mixture of emotions to work through re: the news that Alex Bregman is signing in the Windy City. We'll have a lot more on this signing and what it means for the immediate future of the Red Sox, but for now, I'll just put the spotlight squarely on the man who deserves it: Craig Breslow. The front office chief in Beantown (and former employee of the Cubs), Breslow has done some great work taking the foundation that Chaim Bloom built and bringing it up to the status of a playoff contender. Trading for Garrett Crochet was a brilliant move, and all of the extensions signed by the young core under Breslow's watch should keep Boston in the October picture for the foreseeable future. Plus, despite not making any major-league free-agent signings to this point in the offseason, the Red Sox have augmented their lineup (Willson Contreras) and starting rotation (Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo) via three distinct trades. Each player brings something to the table that the team was previously missing, be it right-handed power (Contreras), an established track record as a frontline starter (Gray), or a big-bodied, right-handed pitcher with elite raw stuff (Oviedo). In a vacuum, those moves make a team that won 89 games in 2025 even better in 2026. But baseball doesn't exist in a vacuum. And the Red Sox still haven't signed a major-league free agent. You can discuss the long-term efficacy of handing a soon-to-be 32-year-old Bregman $35 million per year for the next half-decade, but the Red Sox just got demonstrably worse for the first time since they were eliminated from the playoffs. And you can't really blame Bregman for taking a huge payday with another big-market contender. Breslow has made some foolish decisions in his time running the club. I maintain my belief that trading Rafael Devers — who was dealt mainly to accommodate Bregman at the hot corner — was one of them. It's too early to say if losing the star third baseman will fall into that category, but there is now a real need for urgency in the front office. Bo Bichette remains a reasonable and high-upside replacement option, but at a $300 million asking price, I'm not really sure how that's a better value than what Bregman just got. Maybe now is the time to trade one of the starting outfielders for an infielder, but that feels like a bad use of resources when the incumbent option was available for just money. Again, the Red Sox have insulated themselves from a disastrous offseason by completing their aforementioned trades. Plus, there's always the chance that they sign Bichette, or trade for Ketel Marte or Brendan Donovan. Losing Alex Bregman doesn't have to be the end of the world. In the immediate aftermath of watching him dart for Chicago, though, it sure feels like Breslow and company just let their golden goose get away. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs and third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five year, $175-million deal, sources confirmed to North Side Baseball. Bregman, who will turn 32 in March, gets the largest AAV in Cubs history, at $35 million. The deal spares the team from having to spread money out into Bregman's late 30s and early 40s, though it almost guarantees that they will surpass the competitive-balance tax threshold for 2026—and perhaps years to come. In exchange for that, the Cubs get a player who fits their offensive philosophy perfectly. Bregman makes exceptionally good swing decisions and has run superb contact rates almost throughout his career. He lacks high-end bat speed, but creates power by excelling at pulling the ball in the air. He also plays a sturdy third base, and his arrival carries interesting implications for Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner. Things were very different for Bregman this year, untethered from the qualifying offer but one year older and with a platform season in which he hit brilliantly early, got hurt, then struggled at times in the second half. Instead of being open to flexible structures and locking in on deals that offered him quick paths back to free agency, Bregman and agent Scott Boras sought a lucrative long-term deal. The Red Sox, who wooed Bregman with a deferral structure and multiple opt-outs last winter, were willing to go longer than the Cubs in terms of years, but refused to pay the high AAV the Cubs offered. More to come. View the full article

On Monday, the Miami Marlins signed Jesús Tinoco to a minor league deal. The 30-year-old right-hander spent 2025 with the Marlins, but he was squeezed off their 40-man roster after the season and elected free agency when the club outrighted him to the minors. Overall, Tinoco has spent parts of three seasons with Miami (2020, 2024-25). Across 51 total innings pitched (44 G/0 GS), he has posted a 2.98 FIP (3.00 ERA) with a 22.3 K% and 8.3 BB%. He set a career-high with four saves last year. A trade deadline day waiver claim in 2024, Tinoco was arguably the best arm in the Marlins bullpen down the stretch of that 100-loss season. He never looked quite right in 2025, though. On June 6, the Marlins placed him on the injured list with a right forearm strain. In early September, he underwent a hybrid UCL reconstruction and flexor tendon surgery. If Tinoco's rehab progresses normally, he should be cleared to begin a throwing program at some point during spring training. However, it's unlikely that he'll make any MLB appearances in 2026. Former teammate Declan Cronin, who had his own elbow surgery in September, signed a two-year minor league deal with the Texas Rangers in anticipation of being full-go for 2027. Tinoco's contract is probably structured similarly. View the full article

Marlins fans have been treated to a whirlwind of activity over the last several weeks. The most accomplished player that they've acquired is Pete Fairbanks, the former Tampa Bay Rays closer who signed a one-year, $13M free agent deal. Fairbanks is capable of being the reliable ninth-inning solution that the Marlins lacked last season. He has had 75 saves in total since 2023, which is 12th-most in baseball over that time span. Although Fairbanks has an impressive résumé, there are mixed signals regarding his future. Fairbanks has experienced a fastball velocity dip in the past two years. The right-hander who once averaged 99 mph on his heater is down to 97 mph. In a related trend, Fairbanks' strikeout rate peaked in 2022 at 43.7% and remained strong at 37% in 2023, but he's been at 24% since then. bGJlUlZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndVREJWd0JBMUFBQUZBQVVRQUhVQVZUQUZoV1Yxa0FCRjBEQWd0V0NRcFdVUW9D.mp4 Under the hood, his fastball still performs well. In 2025, the pitch put up a .286 wOBA, .247 xBA, and 21.9% whiff rate—all of those numbers improved from 2024. Fairbanks has had to improve his command to compensate for the velocity dip. The FanGraphs Location+ model graded the pitch with a 105 last season. He was in the zone with his fastball a career-high 53% of the time, which led to a major increase in zone contact from hitters (78.1%), although the damage remained relatively low. The main reason why Fairbanks' fastball has been able to outperform its expected outcomes (FanGraphs Stuff+ of 99) is because of the combination of his arm angle, vertical approach angle (VAA) and induced vertical break (IVB) on the pitch. He had the third-highest arm angle of all qualified MLB right-handed hitters in 2025 at 59°. His -5.6° VAA was one of the lowest averages for a fastball. His IVB of 16.5" ranked in the 71st percentile. The pitch also had less horizontal break (0.3") then batters anticipated. Despite the decline in strikeout ability, Fairbanks has remained an above-average, borderline All-Star-caliber closer. He showed more durability last season by pitching a career-high 60 ⅓ innings last season. The decrease in velo may be a net positive for Fairbanks, limiting the wear and tear of his high-effort delivery. Fairbanks changed his slider in 2025, in prior seasons the pitch was far more "droopy" or curveball-like. The 2025 version was tighter. The pitch had a decrease in hard-hit rate compared to 2024, yet an increase in average exit velo and home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. He also generated more whiffs. Fairbanks' slider will be imperative to his success in 2026. YkI5bzlfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdVSFZ3VURCQVlBWEFZTFZRQUhCMVJYQUFBRUFnUUFVVlpYVmxFQ0NBcFJVZ0JX.mp4 Moving away from Steinbrenner Field could help Fairbanks, who clearly did not feel comfortable pitching to left-handed hitters at home. His walk rate against them was more than twice as high in Tampa compared to road appearances. His strikeout rate also decreased at home vs. lefties. UHZnUDNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdSWFZ3QUZBZ29BQ1ZOVFVBQUhDRlJRQUZnRldsZ0FCd0ZRVkZVREFRTlFBRk5Y.mp4 Fairbanks added a cutter in September and it has the potential to be a deadly pitch. In a sample of 42 cutters thrown, it had an .158 xwOBA, 0% barrel rate, 55% ground ball rate, and a 26.2% swinging strike rate. The Marlins covet pitchers with deep arsenals, so the cutter's usage could rise going forward. V0EyUllfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdkWkFWUlNVRkVBRDFRREFnQUhBRklDQUFCVFVsZ0FVUVlIVTFVRENGQlVWZ29I.mp4 Even the most generous 2026 projection for Pete Fairbanks as displayed on his FanGraphs player page has the 32-year-old merely matching his 2025 production with 1.0 fWAR. He would need to surpass that for the Marlins to extract fair value for the $13M they're spending on him. That being said, if Fairbanks consistently comes up clutch in close games, his positive impact on the team would go beyond that context-neutral output. The Marlins hope that propels them into postseason contention so that Fairbanks actually spends the entire season in Miami rather than turning into a piece to sell at the trade deadline. View the full article

On the day before the team’s much celebrated Fenway Fest, Craig Breslow remained busy as he brought in more depth to the organization through a minor-league contract. Per SoxProspect’s Andrew Parker, the team has signed right-handed pitcher Seth Martinez. The deal also includes a non-roster invite to spring training. The 31-year-old provides Boston with another experienced arm as insurance for the bullpen that will most likely be kept in Worcester to begin the season. Martinez, who was drafted in 2016 by the then-Oakland Athletics, has spent parts of five seasons in the majors. The bulk of his time came from 2021 through the 2024 seasons as he appeared in 111 games out of the bullpen for the Houston Astros, tossing 137 1/3 innings. 2025 was a rough year for Martinez, as he bounced around on waivers going from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Miami Marlins to the Seattle Mariners and then back to the Marlins all before the start of the season. Martinez spent most of the year in Triple-A pitching for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp before getting added to the roster on August 27. In total, he made six appearances and tossed 6 2/3 innings. Miami would go on to designate him for assignment on September 11 and Martinez became a free agent on September 13. View the full article