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Pitching is definitely an art form where success lies in millimeters. A pitch can have incredible velocity, but if it's too straight or located in the wrong area, it can be hit hard and often. Thus, a pitcher is not just an athlete but an artist who must balance his repertoire and pitch quality to be effective in both the short- and long-term. Since the arrival of manager Matt Quatraro and pitching coach Brian Sweeney, the Royals' pitching staff has experienced a renaissance, especially since 2024. Over the past two years, Kansas City has ranked 4th in pitching ERA (3.74), 6th in FIP (3.88), and 2nd in pitching fWAR (37.5). What used to be a weakness, especially when Cal Eldred was the pitching coach, has become a strength of the team and organization. That said, when looking at Royals pitchers individually, especially from the past year, which pitches stuck out the most? Which pitchers sported the best offerings, both in terms of stuff and results? In this post, I am going to look at the five best pitches thrown by Kansas City pitchers in 2025 and offer a breakdown of why those particular pitches stuck out so much in a positive fashion last year. Let's take a look at those five pitchers and their excellent offerings last year. All metrics and graphics are courtesy of TJ Stats. Steven Cruz, Four-Seam Fastball 50% usage, 98.2 MPH average velocity, 15 iVB, 9.8 HB, 108.4 TJ Stuff+ Cruz emerged as a sneaky middle-innings reliever for the Royals last year, getting some high-leverage work in spot situations. A key to his success was his four-seamer, a high-velocity offering (98.2 MPH) that also sported a 108.4 TJ Stuff+, the best mark of any fastball pitch thrown by a Royals pitcher last year. The four-seamer was an interesting pitch quality-wise, as it sported movement atypical for a four-seam fastball. The iVB on the pitch was a bit supbar at 15, but the 9.8 HB on the pitch made it a more tailing offering. In many ways, the pitch seemed to be a cross between a four-seamer and a sinker, which Cruz primarily threw before last season. When located effectively, Cruz's uncanny four-seamer could generate some impressive whiffs, mainly when located up in the zone. The 26-year-old righty threw the pitch equally against lefties and righties a season ago, with a 49.1% usage against left-handed hitters and a 50.9% usage against righties. The pitch was thrown more up and away against lefties and more up and in the middle against righties. Against lefties, he generated more whiffs, as his 32.3% whiff rate against lefties was nearly 10% higher than his whiff rate against righties. However, he was more effective at throwing strikes with the four-seamer against righties, as illustrated by his 31.5% CSW (compared to a 28.4% CSW against lefties). Command was an issue at times for Cruz, and he didn't generate as many strikeouts as one would think for a reliever with such impressive stuff, as illustrated by a 20.1% K%. That said, when located properly, his four-seamer was a weapon out of the bullpen and should be key for a Royals bullpen that needs velocity in the middle innings. Carlos Estevez, Slider 30.9% usage, 87.3 MPH average velocity, 3.0 iVB, -5.4 HB, 107.3 TJ Stuff+ Estevez is known for his high-velocity four-seamer, but his slider may have been his best weapon overall in 2025. The slider is not much of a horizontal offering, sporting only a -5.4 HB. However, it sported a 107.3 TJ Stuff+, the third-best slider thrown last year in terms of TJ Stuff+. When paired with his four-seamer, it could buckle opposing hitters, get them to whiff, or induce weak contact in key spots. That kind of breaking offering is key for a closer to have in high-leverage situations. The Royals' closer primarily utilized the slider against righties with a 43.3% usage, which was 22.2% higher than his slider usage against lefties. Estevez didn't necessarily worry about command with the pitch, as he threw it in the middle against both righties and lefties. The slider generated more O-Swing% against righties (24.1%) than lefties, though it produced more whiffs (28.3% whiff rate) and strikes (34.4% CSW) against lefties than righties (14.4% whiff rate; 24% CSW). In both clips above, Estevez doesn't generate whiffs, but effectively buckles up Darrin Lile of the Nationals and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, who are obviously sitting on a fastball. To be able to throw that kind of pitch against hitters early in the count to get ahead was key to Estevez's effectiveness in 2025, helping him lead the MLB in saves. Seth Lugo, Curveball 18.2% usage, 78.9 MPH average velocity, -13.8 iVB, -14.4 HB, 106.3 TJ Stuff+ Lugo is the definition of a pitching "savant". The 36-year-old righty threw 10 different pitches last year, with seven of them having a usage of five percent or above. That made Lugo one of the toughest at-bats in baseball, despite not possessing an elite fastball. The best offering Lugo threw last year was his curveball, which ranked second in usage at 18.2%. The curve was thrown 24.6% of the time against lefties, while only 9.1% of the time against righties. However, he was equally as effective against both sides of the plate with the breaker, as illustrated by his 32.2% CSW against lefties and 33.7% CSW against righties. He also generated an O-Swing% of 33% against lefties and a 30.8% O-Swing% against righties, which showed it could be an effective "chase" pitch for Lugo when he needed it. That was certainly the case in his strikeout of Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, who chased the curve on a 1-2 count. Against lefties, he tended to paint the armside edge with the offering, while against righties, he threw it more up and in the middle of the plate. He tended to throw the slider, slurve, and slow curve more against righties, so the curve against righties was more of a "change of pace" offering, which is why the command was not as precise. Lugo's curve sported a TJ Stuff+ of 106.3, his best TJ Stuff+ offering. He did give up some hard contact with the curve against lefties last year, with a .462 xwOBACON allowed. Improving the command on his primary breaking pitch could help him see some positive regression in 2026 after posting a 4.15 ERA a season ago. Kris Bubic, Four-Seamer 38.1% usage, 92.1 MPH average velocity, 18,2 iVB, 4.3 HB, 104.6 TJ Stuff+ Bubic's four-seamer is a prime example of why iVB and extension can help improve a fastball with mediocre velocity. With a 92.1 MPH average velocity, the lefty's four-seamer should be a widely crushed offering. And yet, Bubic can get 6.9 extension and 18.2 iVB on the pitch. That helps the four-seamer play up and seem faster than it is on the radar gun. His 106.4 TJ Stuff+ with the pitch further illustrates that, and his four-seamer TJ Stuff+ rated better than Estevez's, which had a 95.9 MPH average velocity last year. As a result, Bubic generated a 33.3% whiff rate with the four-seamer against lefties and a 26.4% against righties. He threw the four-seamer more against righties, with a 42.1% usage against a 24.8% usage against lefties. While the four-seamer was a better swing-and-miss offering against lefties, the CSW metrics were pretty similar against hitters on both sides of the plate (35% CSW against lefties; 31.7% CSW against righties). He was more effective at minimizing productive contact against righties with the four-seamer, as his .367 xwOBACON was 119 points lower than his mark against lefties. When it came to command, the Stanford product was pretty consistent against both lefties and righties, locating the pitch up and away in the strike zone. That made the pitch pretty ideal for generating whiffs, as illustrated in the clip compilation below. Bubic is a trade candidate this winter due to his free agency after 2026. While he doesn't have the prestige of other available top arms on the trade market, his sneakily effective four-seamer could make him a top-of-the-rotation arm for the right team (should JJ Picollo trade him away, of course). Cole Ragans, Slider 13.8% usage, 84.7 MPH average velocity, -2.5 iVB, -1.8 HB, 107.1 TJ Stuff+ Much like Estevez's slider, Ragans' breaking offering is an example of nuance. It doesn't sport much vertical or horizontal break. However, it's a nice change of pace, catching hitters off guard when they're sitting on four-seamers or even his changeup, which are both thrown more often (49.5% and 19.2%, respectively). With a TJ Stuff+ of 107.1, it is an offering that is usually slept on by hitters, even though it shouldn't. Ragans threw the slider more against lefties with a 32.1% usage (he only had a 7.6% usage against righties). Still, it was a compelling pitch against both sides of the plate in terms of CSW (34.1% against lefties; 32.8% against righties) and whiff% (45.2% against lefties and 41.2% against righties). He was better at minimizing hard contact with the slider against lefties, as his .291 xwOBACON was 277 points lower than his mark against righties. What was interesting about Ragans' slider was that he located it in the same spot against both lefties and righties: down and in, glove-side. One would think that would make it easy to hone in on for hitters, especially right-handed ones. However, since he threw it less than eight percent of the time, hitters weren't able to do that often, especially since his knuckle curve was his preferred breaking pitch against righties (114 pitches against righties compared to 24 against lefties). When located in Ragans' preferred spot, he could get the swing and miss that he wanted, especially when ahead in the count, as illustrated below. The slider wasn't necessarily a punch-out pitch, but rather an offering that kept hitters from sitting on his four-seamer. With a 10.6 MPH difference between his average four-seamer and average slider, it was common for hitters to swing over Ragans' slider, much like St. Louis' Victor Scott II and Seattle's Victor Robles did in the clip compilation above. View the full article

According to ESPN's Alden González, the Blue Jays have agreed to a two-year minor league contract with reliever Nic Enright. Enright, 28, finally made it to the majors in 2025, after cancer treatment derailed his career from 2022-24. The right-hander threw 31 innings for the Guardians in his rookie campaign, pitching to a 2.03 ERA and 3.75 xERA. He collected his first MLB win, hold, and save, while striking out 30 and limiting opponents to a .618 OPS. Unfortunately, Enright hit the injured list in September and underwent Tommy John surgery in October, ending his 2026 season before it could begin. Hence, the two-year minor league contract: He'll spend next season rehabbing in the Blue Jays organization, and, hopefully, he'll be ready to compete for a role with the team in 2027. Featured image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images. View the full article

Much to the chagrin of diehard Cubs fans, the team has made a series of small moves this winter, but not any major ones. Most of the off-season transactions have involved relief pitchers. The losses of Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz should be offset by the additions of Jacob Webb, Phil Maton, and even Hunter Harvey, who is the subject of a Matt Trueblood piece on NSBB. As always with the Cubs, pitchers come and go, and it seems like manager Craig Counsell is drawn to former Brewers, like Hoby Milner and Colin Rea. Could six-year NPB slugger Tyler Austin come back to the bigs and successfully bludgeon left-handed pitching again? Can Shota Imanaga return to his All-Star form of 2024? The Cubs will challenge for the NL Central crown, but do they have enough to unseat the Brewers? Let’s take a look at the rest of the National League Central and see how those teams look after their rosters have been slightly shuffled. Note: All WAR numbers are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. All contracts are big league deals. Cincinnati Reds The Reds have made a handful of moves, but they're effectively having an even quieter version of the Cubs' winter. Status quo in the Queen City. Additions: Signed OF JJ Bleday to a one-year deal. 2025 WAR: -0.3 Re-signed RHP Emilio Pagán to a two-year deal. 2025 WAR: 2.0 Signed LHP Caleb Ferguson to a one-year deal. 2025 WAR: 0.9 Traded for OF Dane Myers. 2025 WAR: -0.1 Claimed C Ben Rortvedt off waivers (LA Dodgers). 2025 WAR: -0.5 Subtractions: RHP Lyon Richardson (DFA). 2025 WAR: -0.2 Still Out There: INF/OF Miguel Andujar, 2025 WAR: 0.8 RHP Scott Barlow, 2025 WAR: 0.7 OF Austin Hays, 2025 WAR: 0.8 RHP Zack Littell, 2025 WAR: 3.2 LHP Wade Miley, 2025 WAR: -0.1 RHP Nick Martinez, 2025 WAR: 2.3 LHP Brent Suter, 2025 WAR: 0.3 Bleday will join the left-handed mix in the outfield, but will likely be a platoon/fourth outfielder. Myers is the right-handed version of Bleday, with less power. Pagán saved 32 games last year and is the front-runner for the closer role. Ferguson is likely to be the main southpaw in the pen, but is more of a LOOGY than a guy who can get both sides out. With the declined options, there are a few bullpen jobs up for grabs. Will the Reds re-sign one or more of the pitchers that had been cut free? Milwaukee Brewers The Milwaukee Brewers have made a few transactions this offseason, but Brewers fans are still waiting for the ‘big one.’ Off the field, general manager Matt Arnold was promoted to the position of president of baseball operations, securing (at least on Milwaukee's end) a few more years at the helm of the Brewers. Additions: Traded for LHP Ángel Zerpa. 2025 WAR: 0.3 Signed OF Akil Baddoo. 2025 WAR: 0.2 Claimed LHP Sammy Peralta off waivers. 2025 WAR: -0.5 Subtractions: OF Isaac Collins (traded to Kansas City), 2025 WAR: 2.1 RHP Nick Mears (traded to Kansas City), 2025 WAR: 0.5 C Danny Jansen (signed with Rangers) Still Out There: 1B Rhys Hoskins, 2025 WAR: 0.9 LHP Jose Quintana, 2025 WAR: 1.3 The loss of Collins was met by mixed opinions from industry pundits. Although Collins played a huge role last year and earned some NL Rookie of the Year votes, the Brewers have enough depth in their outfield to work around the loss. Mears was a solid reliever but Zerpa is a lefty that can start or relieve, so he offers the pitching staff a little flexibility. Unlike Mears, he can also be optioned to the minors. Pittsburgh Pirates A few moderate-to-big names have flown across the Buccos’ transaction page so far this winter, including those involved in a three-way trade with Tampa Bay and Houston. Additions: Traded for 2B Brandon Lowe. 2025 WAR: 1.9 Signed 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn to a two-year deal. 2025 WAR: 2.4 Signed LHP Gregory Soto to a one-year deal. 2025 WAR: -0.1 Traded for OF Jake Mangum. 2025 WAR: 1.6 Traded for LHP Mason Montgomery. 2025 WAR: -0.9 Traded for OF Jhostynxon Garcia. 2025 WAR: 0.0 Subtractions: RHP Colin Holderman (signed by Cleveland), 2025 WAR: -0.8 RHP Johan Oviedo (traded to Boston), 2025 WAR: 0.8 RHP Mike Burrows (traded to Houston), 2025 WAR: 1.5 SS Cam Devanney (released), 2025 WAR: -0.5 Still On Board: OF Alexander Canario, 2025 WAR: 0.5 DH/OF Andrew McCutchen, 2025 WAR: 0.1 OF Tommy Pham, 2025 WAR: 1.0 The Pirates traded away a couple solid starters in Oviedo and Burrows, but got some pop on the offensive side with Lowe (31 homers in 2025) and O’Hearn (All-Star, 17 homers). Plus, even more importantly, they got the player with one of the best nicknames in sports. Jhostynxon García (pronounced JOES-tin-son) has the nickname ‘The Password.’ St. Louis Cardinals The Cardinals traded away pitcher Sonny Gray and catcher Willson Contreras to the Red Sox and gained a couple of young starting pitchers in return. New president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom hinted at a full rebuild, and this certainly confirms that. Additions: Traded for RHP Richard Fitts. 2025 WAR: -0.3 Signed RHP Dustin May to a one-year deal. 2025 WAR: -0.6 Traded for RHP Hunter Dobbins. 2025 WAR: 0.4 Re-signed C Yohel Pozo to a one-year deal. 2025 WAR: 0.2 Claimed RHP Zak Kent off waivers. 2025 WAR: 0.1 Subtractions: 1B/DH Willson Contreras (traded to Boston), 2025 WAR: 2.5 RHP Sonny Gray (traded to Boston), 2025 WAR: 1.4 OF/INF Garrett Hampson (released), 2025 WAR: -0.4 Still On Board: RHP Jorge Alcala, 2025 WAR: -1.1 LHP John King, 2025 WAR: -0.3 RHP Miles Mikolas, 2025 WAR: 0.4 If the Cardinals' plan is to get younger, they certainly did that. If addition to Fitts, May, Dobbins, and Kent, the Cards also added pitcher Brandon Clarke, a top Red Sox prospect. Pozo joins a three-catcher mix for St. Louis, but they have high expectations for the Cards backstop. ‘El Birdos’ have been out of the mix in the National League Central for the last three years, but Bloom and company are hoping the influx of youngsters can change that, even if it doesn't happen in 2026. What Does It All Mean? The Brewers have won three straight NL Central titles. Have the other teams done enough in the offseason to dethrone the Brew Crew? Or will one or more teams make a huge move in the next two months that will be enough to put them over the top? Time will tell. View the full article

With the signings of Dylan Cease, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce (and with Shane Bieber exercising his player option), the Blue Jays have taken major steps to solidify their pitching staff in preparation for another World Series run in 2026. Attention has now shifted to the other side of the plate, and to the Jays’ ongoing discussions with free agent “big bats” such as Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette. There is no question that a Kyle or Bo would enhance the Jays’ offence. But there is considerable discussion about how critical such an upgrade really is. Suppose the Jays did not make any further offseason upgrades to their hitting – no Kyle or Bo, and no Ketel Marte or Steven Kwan either. The 2026 Steamer projections for the current Jays are now available on FanGraphs. They project the Jays’ position players to earn only 24 fWAR in 2026, after earning 33 fWAR in 2025. Disappointing! But many of their assumptions, particularly about the Jays’ defense, seem pessimistic. What would the Jays’ fWAR look like with different assumptions? The table below includes actual statistics from 2025, Steamer's 2026 projections, and modified 2026 projections. Note the colours in the final projections section: Yellow assumes 2026 will be the same as 2025, green assumes the same as Steamer, and blue assumes extrapolation of 2025 over a higher number of PA. Some key thoughts about the modified projections: The revised projection assumes a regular outfield of Anthony Santander – Daulton Varsho – Nathan Lukes and an infield of Addison Barger – Andrés Giménez – Ernie Clement – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. George Springer is assumed to be the primary DH, and Alejandro Kirk the primary catcher. The bench is Tyler Heineman – Davis Schneider – Myles Straw – other. This revised projection agrees with Steamer that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should do better in 2026 and assumes the same 153 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR. This might be conservative; Vladdy earned 5.3 fWAR in 2024 and 6.3 in 2021, and he is still in his prime. Steamer assumes that George Springer will drop off a cliff, with his fWAR declining 50% from the 5.2 he earned in 2025 to only 2.6 in 2026. The modified projection agrees that his 2025 production might not be sustainable, but assumes that staying at DH continues to energize him and that his decline will only be to 4.0 fWAR. Alejandro Kirk is widely held to be one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. But while Steamer projects his wRC+ to increase from 116 to 122, it has his Def (defensive runs above average) declining from the 24.9 (!) he earned in 2025 to 6.4 in 2026. The revised projection assumes he maintains the same defensive stats as 2025 and that his wRC+ does not increase. Anthony Santander is difficult to project. He had a terrible 2025 due to injury, but averaged 2.7 fWAR from 2022-24. Steamer projects him for 1.0 fWAR in 2026, but the revised projection assumes he returns to his average levels with an fWAR of 2.5. Like Kirk, Andrés Giménez has been an elite defender for most of his career. From 2022-24, his 58 DRS led all of baseball. He had a poor 2025 due to injury, but his defense was still excellent when he took the field. Yet, Steamer projects him to struggle defensively in 2026 (although it does project his hitting to improve to a 95 wRC+). The last time Giménez had a 95+ wRC+ was in 2023, when he put up a 3.8 fWAR. And that was while he was playing second base, where the positional adjustment of +2.5 is substantially less than the +7.5 he will likely earn at shortstop in 2026. The revised projection assumes he returns to his 2023 form, without any positional bonus for moving to shortstop. Daulton Varsho is another Blue Jay difficult to project. He modified his swing in 2025, greatly increasing his power, but was limited to 271 plate appearances due to injury. Steamer projects his wRC+ to decline from 123 in 2025 to 100 and projects his Def to be negative (-1.2) – this despite Varsho being a perennial Platinum Glove candidate. The revised projection assumes that Varsho plays a full season at 2025 levels (this could be conservative, as his defensive WAR in 2025 was well below his historical standards). Steamer’s projections of Myles Straw and Ernie Clement are similar to the system's projections for Varsho in that they have assumed a dramatic decline in those players’ plus-level defense. The revised projection assumes that they will continue to produce at 2025 levels on both offense and defense. The revised fWAR projections for Addison Barger and Davis Schneider are essentially the same as Steamer's. So, What Does This Mean? In aggregate, the revised projection assumes that the Jays will earn 38 fWAR from position players currently on the roster, even without any additions. This would be an increase of roughly 5 fWAR from 2025. Of course, it is hard to make predictions – especially about the future. Key Jays players could be attacked by sentient suitcases, or ambushed by sprinkler heads, or they could get frostbite in August or fall victim to an imaginary spider attack. So, the revised projection, in assuming no injuries or dramatic declines in production, is in one sense optimistic. But the projection is conservative in some respects too, assuming a maximum of 550 plate appearances from Springer, Varsho and Barger, no breakout from Barger or Lukes, only a 98 wRC+ from Clement, and that Vladdy does not return to his 2021 form. The Bottom Line Nobody questions that more elite hitting is better than less elite hitting. But there is a difference between upgrading at a position of extreme weakness and upgrading at one of relative strength. Could this be why the Jays have not pulled the trigger on a mega-deal (free agent or trade) for hitting yet? Their current strength gives them the luxury of being opportunistic, and potentially even waiting until the midsummer trade deadline to shop at the lumber yard. View the full article

The San Diego Padres' signing of former KBO infielder Sung Mun Song wasn't difficult to pin down in its motivation. A versatile infielder coming off a 25/25 season with Kiwoom is a player that virtually every team in baseball would want to add to their roster. So, it's a certain level of victory that the team was able to sign him to a four-year deal at an affordable price point, even if there isn't an obvious position for him to start at in the present moment. While A.J. Preller could still seek to make a move and trade someone like Jake Cronenworth, the team has options in how they deploy their newest positional acquisition. He could flip Cronenworth back over to first base while Song handles everyday duty at the keystone. The team could also keep Cronenworth at second, insert some sort of platoon involving Gavin Sheets and Luis Campusano (assuming the team doesn't sign an everyday first baseman), and utilize Song as a multi-positional component in their lineup while rotating the designated hitter spot. In any case, it sounds like the team is exploring additional contingencies in order to ensure Song's bat is in the lineup as frequently as possible. Reports emerged around the holidays that the team was considering letting Song spend some time on the outfield grass. New manager Craig Stammen confirmed as much, stating that the goal was to have his bat in the mix above all. It's an interesting proposition, but one that doesn't feature quite the same level of certainty as his work on the infield might. Presently, the Padres have their three starting outfielders in place. Fernando Tatis Jr. will continue his post as one of the game's best defensive right fielders. Jackson Merrill has center locked down for the next decade. Trade deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano, who is in a contract year playing on a club option, will handle left field duties. Tatis and Merrill are stars and, as such, everyday players, while Laureano was split neutral in a strong year at the plate. That's not necessarily a group that lends itself to too much flexibility. The 2025 Padres were hit with some brutal injury luck. Perhaps nobody fell more into that cycle than Merrill, who endured multiple stints on the injured list throughout the year. Laureano also missed the end of the season, while Tatis likely had various points at which he could've used a string of days off, particularly after absorbing multiple hit-by-pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in June. With very little offensive upside behind the starting trio — Bryce Johnson and Tirso Ornelas don't really move the needle — it could certainly behoove Stammen to see if Song has the chops to serve as a supplementary piece in the outfield puzzle in order to ensure the offense doesn't experience the kind of fall off they did last year when games were missed. If you get lucky and don't need that type of support in the way that the Friars did last season, then at least you've got someone worth throwing out there for the odd day off or late-game situation. Ultimately, though, this exploration is about expanding the bench at large. It wasn't only the outfield that suffered from the team's lack of depth in 2025; it was virtually everywhere. With Luis Campusano already set to occupy a spot as the team's backup catcher, the team needs to be able to maximize what they have in their remaining three players on the bench. Last year's reserve group featured the likes of Jose Iglesias, Johnson, and a host of other players that were largely out of the organization by the end of the year. Part of such heavy turnover was due to the fact that it was simply not a versatile group, save for Iglesias. The support just wasn't there when the team needed someone to step in whether in the short or long term. As such, it makes complete sense for Stammen and the Padres to consider Song in the outfield ahead of the 2026 campaign. Even if he's set to be utilized as primarily an infielder, an expansion of his skill set — assuming Song proves capable of handling such duty — provides the team with extra coverage in the outfield in addition to what he was already set to bring to the infield mix. Regardless of how it all shakes out, the fact that the Padres have a moveable player on their roster capable of providing notable offensive production is a really exciting prospect against what the team was working with last season. View the full article

In part one of this Royals Steamer Projections series, I examined the hitters and their outlooks for 2026. In part two, I looked at starting two pitchers, including two with optimistic projections and two who could be due for regression. In the final part of this series, I will deep dive into the Steamer projections of five Royals relief pitchers. Much like the starting pitchers piece, I will look at three starting pitchers with positive outlooks for the upcoming season and two who may be due for regression, based on their Steamer projections. As with any projection system, these aren't "scripture" but rather baselines for measuring future performance. Even though just five will be profiled, below is a look at all the 2026 Steamer projections of Royals relievers. A link to the interactive table is available here. Thus, let's take a look at the five Royals relievers who fans should pay attention to closely in 2026. (Statcast summaries courtesy of TJ Stats.) Matt Strahm, LHP In 66 projected IP: 3.66 ERA, 1 SV, 17 HLD, 26.2% K%, 18.7% K-BB%, 1.18 WHIP, 31.2% GB%, 3.66 FIP, 0.7 fWAR The Royals' biggest pitching acquisition of the offseason has been Strahm, a 34-year-old veteran who last pitched with the Phillies. In Philadelphia last year, the 2012 Royals draft pick (21st-round pick) posted a 2.74 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 27.3% K%, and 1.5 fWAR in 66 appearances and 62.1 IP. One of the goals for the Royals this offseason was to find a left-handed pitcher who could thrive in high-leverage situations. Based on his Win Probability data from last year, Strahm fits the bill perfectly. The lefty had 30 shutdowns a season ago, a WPA of 2.30, a 1.50 GM/LI (leverage index when entering a game), and 0.90 clutch factor. For context, his shutdown number led all Phillies pitchers, as did his clutch factor. His WPA was the fourth-highest mark of Philadelphia pitchers, behind starters Christopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez. And his GM/LI was behind only closer Jhoan Duran and right-handed setup man Orion Kerkering. When it comes to his outlook next year, Steamer projects Strahm to be the Royals' best reliever. His 0.7 fWAR is the best projection of any Royals reliever, and his 26.2% K rate and 18.7% K-BB% are also the best projected marks in those categories. The GB% is a bit low at 31.2%, but Strahm has still found a way to be successful by minimizing hard contact. According to Statcast, his average EV and barrel rate allowed ranked in the 98th and 95th percentiles, respectively, as seen in the TJ Stats summary below. There are some concerns with Strahm: his fastball velocity ranked in the 24th percentile, and he may not have room to increase it given his age and extension (22nd percentile). However, Strahm has proven to be a dependable and effective arm in late-inning situations, which only should strengthen a Royals bullpen that ranked seventh in reliever ERA last season. Lucas Erceg, RHP In 62 projected IP: 3.57 ERA, 2 SV, 13 HLD, 23.9% K%, 15.2% K-BB%, 1.28 WHIP, 46.5% GB%, 3.59 FIP, 0.6 fWAR Expectations were high for Erceg after he closed games down for the Royals down the stretch in 2024 and in the postseason. Many Royals fans were initially surprised that JJ Picollo acquired closer Carlos Estevez last offseason, but it proved to be the right decision. Not just because Estevez was effective, but because Erceg also had a season of regression. In 2024, the former Athletics reliever posted a 2.88 ERA, 1.17 FIP, and 1.4 fWAR in 25 IP with the Royals. He also had 11 saves, including some big ones in the postseason in the AL Wild Card against Baltimore and ALDS against the Yankees. However, in 2025, in 61.1 IP last year, his ERA remained solid at 2.64, but his FIP was 3.49, and his fWAR was 0.9. A big reason for the fWAR and FIP regression was due to the decline in strikeouts. After posting a 32% K rate with the Royals in 2024, his K rate regressed to 19.3% last year. It wasn't exactly a "healthy" season for Erceg, as he dealt with lingering back issues all year (which included an IL stint). Erceg didn't have as sharp a command in Kansas City last year as he did in his Royals debut in 2024. That was evidenced by his 26% CSW, which was a 7% regression from a season ago. He also saw some regression on his fastball quality, as it sported a TJ Stuff+ mark under 100, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary below. Steamer projects a bounce back for Ereceg, especially in his strikeout rate. He is projected to post a 23.9% K rate, a 4.6% improvement from a year ago. He is also projected to post a 15.2% K-BB%, a 3.2% improvement from 2025, while maintaining a solid GB% at 46.5%. Hence, Erceg is expected to post the second-best fWAR of Royals relievers with a 0.6 mark, and the best FIP at 3.59. Estevez may be locked in as the Royals' closer in 2026, but fans shouldn't sleep on Erceg to challenge him for save opportunities in 2026. Carlos Estevez, RHP In 65 projected IP: 4.29 ERA, 31 SV, 2 HLD, 21.7% K%, 13% K-BB%, 1.33 WHIP, 32.7% GB%, 4.30 FIP, 0.2 fWAR Estevez had one of the best seasons for a closer in Royals history, which is saying something considering the history of excellent closers in the Kansas City organization. In 67 appearances and 66 IP, the 33-year-old closer saved 42 games, posted an ERA of 2.45, a FIP of 3.67, and fWAR of 1.1. He made the All-Star team and led the Major Leagues in saves, the first time a Royals closer has done that since Dan Quisenberry. That said, a deeper look into his metrics illustrates that Estevez may have a hard time repeating in 2026 what he did in 2025. In 2025, Estevez posted a K rate of 20.1% and K-BB% of 11.9%. That's 3.5% and 6% decline from his marks in those categories a season ago. Furthermore, his CSW regressed from 28.6% in 2024 to 24.3% in 2025, a 4.3% decline. Lastly, his Statcast percentiles looked pretty questionable overall last year, not indicative of a top flight closer. Steamer seems to agree that Estevez may be due for some regression in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.29, a 0.84 point increase, and his FIP to be 4.30, a 0.67 point increase. They do project bumps in K rate, with a 1.2% increase, and K-BB%, with a 1.1% increase. However, Steamer projects an expected bump in BABIP from .234 last year to .290 this year, which will contribute to the increases in ERA and FIP. Estevez will still be a good closer in 2026, and his 31 projected saves demosntrate that. That said, he likely won't be the All-Star closer that he was a season ago. Alex Lange, RHP In 52 projected IP: 3.93 ERA, 0 SV, 7 HLD, 24.1% K%, 12.5% K-BB%, 1.41 WHIP, 46.8% GB%, 3.95 FIP, 0.2 fWAR Lange was one of the Royals' earliest moves, and it has gone under the radar after that Strahm acquisition. However, the former Tigers closer may be one of the sneakiest moves Picollo has made this offseason. Injuries and inconsistency have limited the KC Metro product, as he has only pitched in 19.2 IP at the Major League level in the past two seasons. He did primarily pitch in Triple-A Toledo as he recovered from a right lat injury suffered in 2024. In that sample, the metrics weren't impressive at the surface level (4.62 ERA, 3.88 FIP in 25.1 IP), but his TJ Stats Statcast summary from Triple-A was the inverse, as seen below. That's a lot of red in that profile, which is a good thing. Lange ranked in the 100th percentile in Whiff%, 99th percentile in K% and barrel rate, 97th percentile in CSW, and 94th percentile in GB%. If Lange is able to transition those skills to the MLB level in 2026, he could end up being one of the Royals' most valuable relievers by the conclusion of next season. Steamer seems to believe that he can make that transition. In 52 innings, they projected him to put up a 3.93 ERA, a 3.95 FIP, a 24.1% K rate, and 12.5% K-BB%. What's also nice about Lange's profile is that he can generate a lot of groundballs, and Steamer projects that he will produce a 46.8% GB% next year. Only James McArthur (47.1%) and Luinder Avila (47%) are expected to sport better marks in that category. Control is, and has always been an issue with Lange, as evidenced by his 13.5% careeer BB%. Conversely, he generates a lot of chase, with a 33.4% career O-Swing%. The Royals' 30.5% O-Swing% ranked 26th last year, so Lange's profile will be welcomed, even if there may be some walk risk. John Schreiber, RHP In 64 projected IP: 4.03 ERA, 1 SV, 14 HLD, 21.4% K%, 12.6% K-BB%, 1.34 WHIP, 42% GB%, 4.07 FIP, 0.3 fWAR Schreiber has been one of the more utilized Royals relievers in the past two years, especially in high-leverage situations. His 1.51 GM/LI is tied for the fourth-highest mark of Kansas City relievers from 2024-2025. His 53 shutdowns also leads all Royals relievers from the past two seasons, and his 1.99 WPA is tied for the third-best mark over that period as well (behind only Erceg and Estevez). Unfortunately, he started to show some blemishes in his profile in 2025 after a sensational 2024. His ERA went from 3.66 in 2024 to 3.80 in 2025, his FIP rose from 3.03 in 2024 to 4.17 in 2025, and his fWAR went from 1.3 in 2024 to 0.3 in 2025. A big reason for this regression was a sharp increase in HR/FB rate, as his 13% mark was 11% higher than in 2024. Schreiber also saw a decrease in GB%, seeing it go from 51.3% in 2024 to 39% in 2025. HIs TJ Stats summary also showed some percentile concerns, especially in O-Swing% and barrel rate. Steamer seems to project that the regression will continue for Schreiber in 2026. They project his ERA will be 4.03 and his FIP will be 4.07. They also project a 21.4% K%, a two percent decrease from a season ago. With the arrival of Lange, Strahm, and Nick Mears, it's possible that Schreiber will be more of a medium-leverage arm instead of the high-leverage one from the past couple of seasons. And that change in role could make Schreiber a tradeable asset this winter, especially for a team that may be starved for help in the bullpen in 2026. The 31-year-old reliever could net the Royals a nice return, whether it's in terms of hitting help or prospect capital. View the full article

Alex and Maddie discuss the Willson Contreras trade and the impact it may have on Triston Casas. They go through the remaining free agent options for both second and third base before moving on to the starting pitching market. They close the episode discussing possible trade scenarios and give their takes on whether the Red Sox will sign either Tatsuya Imai or Kazuma Okamoto. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View the full article

The Minnesota Twins’ competitive window has felt perpetually cracked open for the better part of a decade. That is, it's rarely slammed shut, but never fully open, either. At the center of that uneasy balance sits Byron Buxton, the face of the franchise and its most complicated variable. Buxton has three years remaining on his team-friendly extension, and as things stand today, there is no clear indication that Minnesota will be a true World Series contender at any point during that stretch. That reality makes the next few seasons feel more like an evaluation period than an opportunity. Baseball has a way of humbling certainty. Teams that look mediocre in March can find themselves dogpiling in October. Rosters that feel one move away can collapse overnight. Buxton’s presence alone keeps the Twins relevant, and his ceiling remains higher than almost any player in the organization. The question is whether the timing ever aligns. Rumors are already unavoidable. If the Twins fall out of contention again and pivot further toward selling veteran pieces, Buxton’s name will surface in trade conversations. He holds a no-trade clause, but that protection does not mean immovability. Buxton is now 31, with a lengthy injury history and a dwindling number of games left in his career. The chance to play meaningful October baseball elsewhere could be tempting, especially if Minnesota’s direction becomes clearer by midseason. Here’s a look at the next three seasons, what it could mean for the Twins, and how the Byron Buxton winning window is shrinking. 2026: Running It Back and Hoping The most likely outcome for 2026 is familiarity. The Twins appear poised to run back much of last year’s roster and hope for organic improvement from their young core. FanGraphs’s initial projection of an 82-80 record paints the picture perfectly. Competitive, relevant, but far from secure. Top prospects are waiting in the wings, and many are expected to debut during the season. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez all finished at Triple-A St. Paul last season. That said, rookies are supplements, not saviors. Expecting them to replace established production is rarely realistic. For Buxton, 2026 looks like another season of carrying disproportionate weight, both on the field and in how the franchise is perceived nationally. 2027: Chaos Creates Opportunity The 2027 season may never resemble a normal year. A looming labor dispute means a strong chance of a lockout that could delay the start of the season. If negotiations drag on, MLB may shorten the schedule and expand the postseason to preserve revenue. That kind of chaos can flatten the playing field. More playoff teams mean more paths into October. For a club like Minnesota, that matters. The Twins saw this happen in 2020, during the COVID-shortened season. A hot month or two could be enough. By then, the young pitchers, like Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas may be ready for the spotlight. Arms that currently feel far from ready to carry a team could become the backbone of a playoff run. In October, structure matters less than momentum, and weird things tend to happen. 2028: Swan Song or Turning Point The 2028 season could be Buxton’s swan song in a Twins uniform. He has been clear about wanting to be a Twin for life, but the next three years will test that commitment on both sides. If his performance continues to resemble his 2025 campaign, extensions could remain on the table. If not, the cold reality of aging curves will loom. Coming out of a potential lockout, this is the ideal time for Minnesota to push more aggressively. A young core featuring Jenkins, Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Kaelen Culpepper could be ready to emerge. Supporting that group properly might finally align Buxton’s timeline with a legitimate window of opportunity. The Twins do not need to choose between rebuilding and contending just yet, but they are running out of time to avoid that decision. Buxton’s contract provides flexibility, leverage, and pressure. Whether Minnesota capitalizes on that window or watches it quietly close will define the next era of Twins baseball. Do you believe the Twins can build a true contender before Buxton’s contract runs out, or is a difficult decision inevitable? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

2025 will go down as one of the most historic seasons in Toronto Blue Jays franchise history, from having the best record in the Grapefruit League, to signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.to the largest contract in franchise history, to making it all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. It was a season defined by milestones. For all of us at Jays Centre, it was a milestone season for us, too. 2025 was our first year covering the Blue Jays. Over the course of the year, several articles generated clicks, started conversations, some points were debated, and shone a light on just how special some of the performances in 2025 were. Here are our top five articles from the 2025 season: 5) 2026 Toronto Blue Jays Roster Projection, v1 By Sam Charles Dec 3rd 2025 Before we look back at 2025, let's briefly jump ahead to the present and take a look at 2026. With several high-impact signings already complete (Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce added via free agency), and Shane Bieber exercising his player option to return to the team. It's a good idea to take a look at where the roster currently stands with the potential of more impact moves on the table. The piece touches on the potential return of Bo Bichette, the rumors surrounding Kyle Tucker, and highlights the bullpen, as well as all the possible names that will likely contribute to the 2026 team at some point. It's a must-read and serves as a great refresher as the offseason rolls on. 4) Tyler Heineman Is On His Way To Making Backup Catcher History By Leo Morgenstern Aug 6th 2025 If projecting the future drew readers in, unexpected on-field production kept them coming back. One of the main storylines that carried the 2025 Blue Jays was their consistent production from unexpected sources. Tyler Heineman was one of those sources several times this past season. Heineman had always been known for his glove, but the 34-year-old found another level with his bat, and not only was it good, but it was also historic in terms of production from backup catchers. At the time the article was written, Heineman's 2.2 fWAR was 11th all-time among catchers with less than 200 PAs, and while he finished the season at 2.1 fWAR, his pace had him projected to be the best of all time. It's not often a backup catcher makes headlines, but that's just the type of magic Heineman had in 2025. 3) Even Alex Anthopoulos Wouldn’t Have Extended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. By Davy Andrews Mar 5th 2025 The Blue Jays eventually got a deal done with Guerrero, but there was a lot of chatter about whether it would get done. Vlad had set a deadline of the first day of camp to get an extension done, and the day came and went, and still no pen was put to paper. Davy took a look at former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, who has a history of extensions for his young players in Atlanta, and thought, if he were still in charge in Toronto, would he have handled the Vladimir Guerrero Jr.situation any differently? At the time, the piece had therapeutic qualities, trying to give fans a perspective that things would be okay if a deal didn't work out. But now that Guerrero is under contract for a decade plus, it feels especially relevant to get a glimpse at what the front office may have been thinking during that moment. 2) Could a Scott Boras Failure Result in a Blue Jays Triumph? By Megan M Jan 30th 2025 Flash back to the 2024-25 offseason, and the Blue Jays were still looking for help on the roster. Juan Soto had just signed in Queens after being linked to the Blue Jays all winter, and the reputation that the Blue Jays finishing second on every free agent started to feel very real. Megan speculated that a misread of Alonso’s market could be a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to strike and look to acquire the slugger on a short-term deal to help bolster the offence. He ended up returning to the Mets in 2025, hit 38 home runs, and has since turned that into a five-year deal with Baltimore this offseason. Although it didn’t end up happening in Toronto, it's worth a read, especially as the Blue Jays and Scott Boras have a history. With some notable Boras clients still on the free agent market (Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger), there is a chance they link up again. 1) So That’s why the Blue Jays Didn’t Extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. By Davy Andrews Mar 10th 2025 Sweet sweet closure. You rarely get some direct comments from a star player about his thoughts on the team, and Vlad certainly shared his thoughts. Vlad spoke in Spanish to ESPN about what exactly went down between the two parties. Davy does a great job of breaking down all that Vlad had to say in the two-and-a-half-minute clip, and looking back after the contract has been signed, a lot of what he says holds up. Signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.was one of the biggest decision points the franchise has ever made, and you can make the argument that getting the deal done is already starting to pay dividends. There is also a compelling case that, without extending Guerrero, the Blue Jays wouldn’t have made the historic World Series run they did. It's an absolute must-read, especially knowing how the Jays' season went and the impact Guerrero had on it. View the full article

For baseball fans, we’re fortunate to have a plethora of projection models to review. There’s Jared Cross’ Steamer, Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (Marcel), Nate Silver’s Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), Brian Cartwright’s Oliver, and Dan Szymborski’s Zymborski Projection System (ZiPS). Each projection system has its own merits — one isn’t necessarily better than another. Are they 100% accurate? No, which is perfectly fine. Predicting the future is tough. However, they are fun to look at, and reviewing Szymborski’s projections helps the offseason progress a little faster! Just before Christmas, he dropped the Red Sox’s 2026 ZiPS projection. How does the model think the team will fare next year? Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, and the Rest of the Rotation Is ZiPS secretly rooting for the Red Sox? It loves Garrett Crochet (don’t we all?), who is projected to generate 5.3 WAR, the second most among pitchers, trailing Tarik Skubal (6.0 WAR). Sonny Gray is currently viewed as the team’s number two starter. Compared to last season’s gap between Crochet and the rest of the rotation, ZiPS is high on Gray, projecting a 112 ERA+ across 154.0 IP. It’s also optimistic about Brayan Bello (104 ERA+). @Alex Mayes and I have talked heavily about Bello’s future on the Talk Sox Podcast. The team’s starting pitching success depends on Brayan Bello, the bridge to the front and back of the rotation. Despite notching three full seasons under his belt, the right-hander's future remains uncertain Has he reached his full ceiling? Can he live up to his true potential? Moreover, what is his true potential? Could he be traded? Between Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Kyle Harrison, the team has more than enough options to fill at the backend of the rotation. Regardless of the depth behind Bello, the rotation’s ceiling and stability hinges on whether he can emerge as a reliable anchor. The Big, Beautiful Bullpen Meanwhile, the bullpen looks great, aside from Zack Kelly. Aroldis Chapman is expected to have another successful season (143 ERA+, the team’s second-best mark, and a 2.74 FIP). After a strong season as a full-time reliever, ZiPS is keen on Garrett Whitlock, projecting a 132 ERA+ and 3.05 FIP. Holes at 3B, 2B, and Catcher It’s almost 2026. Following the Rafael Devers trade, Alex Bregman’s injury, and his eventual opt-out come the offseason, I feel like a broken record saying the Red Sox need infield depth. Fortunately, the Willson Contreras trade addressed depth at first base. However, for the rest of the infield, help is required. ZiPS views Marcelo Mayer as a third baseman, rather than a second baseman (where he played 57 innings in 2025). Excluding first base, Mayer can play wherever he’s needed in the infield. Ceddanne Rafaela and Romy González are projected to net the most playing time at second. Free agents Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, and Kazuma Okamoto are unsigned and could help fill holes at second or third, so Rafaela can man center field on a full-time basis. Bench players like Romy González (projected .266/.307/.426, 102 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) and David Hamilton (projected .228/.298/.359, 83 0PS+, 1.8 WAR) are valuable contributors to the team, but when injuries forced them into full-time roles, their overall performance suffered. The team must add an everyday player at either second or third and deploy the González and Hamilton as depth when needed, rather than expect them to carry the workloads of starters. The catching group is projected to be around average. ZiPS is pessimistic about Carlos Narváez, projecting him to slash .224/.307/.362 with an 87 OPS+ and 1.6 WAR across 418 plate appearances. It expects Connor Wong’s bat to bounce back, though, slashing .248/.309/.386 with a 93 OPS+ and 0.6 WAR over 351 plate appearances. Maybe this is why the Red Sox have reportedly checked in on free-agent catcher J.T. Realmuto? After an emotionally turbulent season that featured the team’s first playoff appearance since 2021, the Red Sox are looking to build upon their success. ZiPS highlights areas of need in the roster, but overall is optimistic about the team’s future trajectory: Now, it’s up to Craig Breslow and the front office to fill the roster’s outstanding needs. View the full article

Blue Jays star George Springer was among the MLB players included on Team Puerto Rico's 35-man preliminary roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. However, Antolín Maldonado Ríos of Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día reports that Springer will not play in the tournament after all. According to the report, "Springer atribuyó su decisión a una lesión." ("Springer attributed his decision to an injury.") Presumably (read: hopefully), this is not a new injury issue, and Springer simply wants as much time as possible to fully recover from the various ailments that he played through this past year. Springer is eligible to play for Puerto Rico, the United States, and Panama in the World Baseball Classic, but he has never participated in the tournament. Featured image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images. View the full article

If you have been counting down and crossing players off your own list of key Milwaukee Brewers players, you know who is left to account for in Brewer Fanatic's inaugural list of top 25 player assets heading into the 2026 season. But how does that final five shake out? You are about to find out. This list includes current Brewers players and prospects, and ranks them with this in mind: Who are the most important pieces in the organization's pursuit of building a champion? To answer that, we considered age, upside, and contract. This list is a group effort. Jason Wang, Michael Trzinski, and I each came up with our own lists and merged them to create this ranking. Our individual rankings are included with each player, so you know who to blame if your favorite player isn't higher. Just kidding (but really). As a reminder, each player's age and controlled-through year are based on his Baseball Reference age for the 2026 season and when B-R says he can become a free agent. To see the previous 20, check them out here: 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 and 21-25. Without further ado, then, the top five: 5. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP Jason's rank: 4 | Michael's rank: 13 | Steve's rank 7 2026 season age: 24 Controlled through: 2031 Even in the top five, you can see the volatility of how each of us ranked players. That's especially clear with Misiorowski, but that also encapsulates his 2025 season. An explosive start to his career with 11 no-hit innings led to being named to the All-Star Game after just five MLB games, but his late-season struggles sent him to the bullpen—only for that to prove the perfect place for him to shine in the postseason. When he is on, Misiorowski is one of the most electric pitchers in baseball, routinely throwing 102-mph four-seamers and mixing in a nasty mid-90s cutter/slider thing and a bigger, still firm curveball that buckles knees. His fist-pumps and emotion can ignite the entire team. But when he isn't fully on his game, there can be some concerns. That isn't to say everything is in good shape. Despite the similarity in the two seasons, Chourio's bWAR dropped from 3.8 to 2.2, some of which is likely due to playing most of the time in center field after only playing the corners in 2024. However, he also stopped drawing walks. Chourio walked in a paltry 5.1% of his plate appearances in 2025, which was down from an already-poor 6.8% as a rookie. Chasing pitches is his primary problem. Chourio swung at 38.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, a worse mark than his 32.8% in 2024. That is where the hitting staff will need to work with Chourio the most. Laying off those pitches to draw more walks (as well as getting into better counts) will make him more productive. Defensively, it was remarkable how much progress Chourio made. As a rookie, he was often criticized for not being aggressive enough and just didn't seem comfortable in the corners. That he started 87 games in center this year and didn't look lost shows how much work he put into his defense in the offseason. Sure, there is more work to be done, but he is a capable center fielder. Chourio is a big part of the future of the Brewers, who showed their belief in him two offseasons ago with an eight-year, $82-million contract before he had played a game in the majors. So far, Chourio is showing that investment will pay dividends. But there seems to be another level to Chourio that has yet to be unlocked. If and when he that is achieved, Chourio will put himself in the NL MVP conversation on an annual basis. View the full article

On Saturday, the Miami Marlins traded Dane Myers to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for 23-year-old outfielder Ethan O'Donnell. The timing of the deal was not random—the Marlins had just reached an agreement with free agent Pete Fairbanks and needed to make a corresponding move to open up a 40-man roster spot for him. They got whatever they could for Myers, whose three-year tenure with the Fish had some great stretches, but ended with an ugly half-season slump and yet another injury. This was a sell-low situation. That being said, O'Donnell is capable of being much more than just organizational filler. Selected in the sixth round of the 2023 MLB Draft, O'Donnell destroyed Low-A pitching later that summer. In 23 games, he slashed .350/.447/.600/1.047 with a 180 wRC+, including a streak of homering in four consecutive games. That's a rare feat for anybody in the Florida State League. Moving up to High-A in 2024, O'Donnell slashed .269/.358/.416/.774 with 10 home runs, 40 RBI, 31 stolen bases and a 124 wRC+ in 104 games. He was among Minor League Baseball's hottest hitters in August (1.076 OPS). The Marlins are getting O'Donnell coming off his worst statistical year as a pro. It included a .236/.327/.325/.652 slash line with seven home runs, 56 RBI, 20 stolen bases and a 90 wRC+ in 125 Double-A games. He struck out 25.6% of the time, but also walked 10.7% of the time. Just as it was looking like the Reds would be limiting O'Donnell to the outfield corners moving forward, he gave them reason to believe that center field is still a possibility. He played 64 games there, followed by 50 in left field, where he has more than enough arm strength to be successful. On the surface, O'Donnell's .314 batting average on balls in play may look normal. However, he has a long history of being more productive thanks to his combination of above-average speed, hard contact and skilled bunting. His overall BABIP topped .400 in 2023 when combining college and the minors and he was at .357 in 2024. Perhaps there is some bounce-back potential for him in that category. It also needs to be noted that the Southern League is an extremely pitcher-friendly league where the average slash line is .230/.321/.340/.660. Since becoming affiliated with Double-A Pensacola, the Marlins have seen a bunch of their prospects take huge steps forward offensively upon being moved up to Triple-A Jacksonville, with Jakob Marsee and Kemp Alderman as recent examples. We'll see if O'Donnell can benefit from the change of scenery like they did. One area of focus for O'Donnell should be refining his approach against left-handed pitching. In 2025, he struck out 37.8% of the time vs. lefties with zero homers in 98 plate appearances. Even if O'Donnell winds up as a platoon player at the major league level, that's an outcome the Marlins would be happy with given the tools he has to impact winning in other aspects of the game. View the full article

The baseball offseason lasts forever, especially for those of us who look out our windows in Minnesota with a Blizzard on the other side of the window. The Twins season ended before October, so it has been nearly two months since we have watched them play. The Twins haven’t been terribly active this offseason, adding just one free agent to a big-league contract. The team did make a Rule 5 draft pick, catcher Daniel Susac, but subsequently traded him before the draft was even completed. They have added a few pitchers as minor-league free agents. But as the calendar soon changes from 2025 to 2026, the Minnesota Twins still have work to do to complete their 2026 spring training roster. And while Derek Falvey has been known to make moves, even significant moves, well into spring training, time will move quickly over the next two months. By next week, the dorms at the Twins complex in Fort Myers will start filling up. Minor Leaguers will start arriving to prepare for their seasons. Some big leaguers will be in Fort Myers, but they will really start amping up the intensity of their workouts. Pitchers will start doing more throwing, and more throwing with purpose now. Twins Fest will take place in one month, and because of the WBC, spring training starts early, in mid-February. With that, if the season was to start today, what might the roster look like? The Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Alex Jackson. There was some thought that the Twins would attempt to trade Jeffers at the trade deadline, and then possibly this offseason. Technically it could still happen, but I would hope not. Jeffers is solid behind the plate. He won’t be winning a Gold Glove, but he does a nice job working with pitchers, calling a game. He also spent most of 2025 hitting in the top half of the Twins lineup. Jackson came to the Twins in November in exchange for infielder Payton Eeles. The sixth-overall pick in the 2014 draft hasn’t hit much in his career, but he can provide a little power from time to time. His defense is what has kept him employed with a variety of teams over the years. Catcher Depth 40-Man Roster: Johnny Pereda, Mickey Gasper Triple-A: Noah Cardenas, Patrick Winkel Double-A: Ricardo Olivar, Andrew Cossetti, Nate Baez, Khadim Diaw (#20 Prospect) High-A: Eduardo Tait (#3 Prospect), Poncho Ruiz, Daniel Pena, Luis Hernandez Low-A: Enrique Jimenez, Irvin Nunez, Ryan Sprock, Ian Daugherty, FCL/Extended Spring Training: Ricardo Pena, Carlos Silva, Miguel Caraballo. The Twins have clearly made catching a priority this offseason. They lost veteran Christian Vazquez and traded for veteran Alex Jackson. Gasper showed again in 2025 that he is a terrific Triple-A hitter who is fine as a team’s third or fourth backstop. Pereda joined the Twins organization late in the season and got to spend some time in the big leagues. He looks the part of a AAAA catcher. I am fine with him being the #2 guy if needed. The exciting “prospects” are a lot of the recently acquired players. Eduardo Tait came to the team in the Jhoan Duran deal. Enrique Jimenez came from Detroit in the Chris Paddack deal. When the Twins took Daniel Susac in the Rule 5 draft, they traded him immediately to the Giants for Miguel Caraballo. All three are high ceiling, low floor types with plenty of development in front of them. But they are exciting. I believe the Twins would be confident calling up Cardenas and Winkel as needed just because they are strong defensively. Khadim Diaw is very exciting as an athlete. He is a solid catcher, but he can also play center field. Likewise, Olivar is a decent backstop who can also play left field in a pinch. The Infielders (7): Josh Bell, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Ryan Kreidler, Edouard Julien (Out of Options) The Twins added veteran slugger Josh Bell to the roster, and likely to the middle of their lineup, recently. He will get some time at first base, but it’s just as likely that Clemens will get just as much time there. Frankly, I wouldn’t mind the Twins giving Keaschall some time there. After a solid, though injury-plagued rookie campaign, Keaschall certainly would like to stay on the field as much as possible. Getting him time at first base in the right matchup could allow Julien to get some playing time. Out of options, he had newcomer Kreidler will need to make the roster first and then let Derek Shelton figure out how he wants to get them into games. While both former top picks struggled much during the 2025 season, I’d put them both in the lineup almost every day and hope that the talent that made them first-rounders shined through and they put up numbers to impress. I include Kreidler because he is out of options. I much prefer Ryan Fitzgerald in a utility role because he is terrific defensively no matter where he is put in the infield. Infielder Depth 40-Man Roster: Ryan Fitzgerald, Triple-A: Aaron Sabato, Ben Ross, Tanner Schobel, Kaelen Culpepper (#2 Prospect), Jake Rucker Double-A: Nate Baez, Kyle DeBarge (#16 Prospect), Brandon Winokur (#12 Prospect), Danny De Andrade, Andy Lugo, Jose Salas, Jorel Ortega, Miguel Briceno, High-A: Billy Amick, Dameury Pena, Rayne Doncon, Marek Houston (#11 Prospect), JP Smith, Shai Robinson, Jay Thomason, Harry Genth, Low-A: Jayson Bass, Bruin Agbayani, Bryan Acuna, Quentin Young (#17 Prospect), Ramiro Domingues, Ryan Daniels, Yilber Herrera, Ryan Sprock. FCL/Extended Spring Training: Victor Leal, Santiago Leon, Daiber De Los Santos Certainly Kaelen Culpepper, the top pick in the 2024 draft, is the name to watch early in the season. He had a very strong season between High-A and Double-A in 2025 and could be ready for the big leagues sometime in 2026. I’m sure the Twins hope that he gives them some difficult decisions to make. Fellow former first-round pick Aaron Sabato has done alright in his time with the Saints, and he has shown good power. I could see him debuting if needed. I believe Ben Ross can play defense in the big leagues, anywhere in the infield, and maybe a little outfield too. High draft picks like DeBarge and Winokur showed promise in 2025, but they’re likely at least a year out. 2026 top pick Marek Houston is known more for defense at shortstop as well. I don’t expect him to advance as quickly as Culpepper, but that will depend on if he hits. And at the lower levels, there are some very intriguing, talented player including 2025 prep picks Bruin Agbayani and Quentin Young. The Outfielders (5): Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Austin Martin, James Outman (out of options), Matt Wallner. This group is certainly up for grabs. Byron Buxton is the lone true “Given” in the group. He is coming off of a season in which he generally stayed healthy and put up terrific numbers, earning his first career Silver Slugger Award. Wallner should be a given too. He struggled, striking out a ton, and getting on base less than 30% of the time. However, he is a power threat in the lineup who can turn a game around on any pitch. Defensively, he’s decent out in right field and has one of baseball’s strongest outfield arms. Larnach is another former top pick who had a relatively disappointing 2025 season. Some were surprised that the Twins tendered him a contract in November, but that was an easy decision. He is perfectly adequate, can get on runs offensively, and he hits around 20 homers each season. He could still be traded. He struggles defensively (more in left than in right field, at least in my mind’s eye). He likely DHs when Bell is in the field. Austin Martin was hurt and in St. Paul most of the year. But when he finally got an opportunity late in the season, he took advantage. He got on base. He ran. He looked solid defensively in left field. And finally, I went with James Outman as a fifth outfielder, and again, primarily because he is out of options. He looked so good in his first seasons with the Dodgers, hitting a lot of homers. He’s put up big Triple-A numbers, but he really struggled to make contact in the big leagues, Alan Roden is certainly a candidate for a spot on the roster. In addition, Clemens can play in the outfield as needed. Outfield Depth 40-Man Roster: Emmanuel Rodriguez (#4 Prospect). Alan Roden, Gabriel Gonzalez (#9 Prospect), Hendry Mendez Triple-A: Walker Jenkins (#1 Prospect), Kyler Fedko (#18 Prospect), Kala’i Rosario, Double-A: Garrett Spain (MILB Rule 5), Caden Kendle, Ricardo Olivar, Maddux Houghton, Brandon Winokur, Jose Salas, Kyle Hess, High-A: Jacob McCombs, Yasser Mercedes, Jaime Ferrer, Miguel Briceno, Low-A: Jayson Bass, Byron Chourio, Eduardo Beltre, Yandro Hernandez, FCL/Extended Spring Training: Luis Fragoza, Yovanny Duran, Carlos Tavares, Murphy Hernandez, Jhomnardo Reyes There are certainly intriguing players that are nearly ready for the big leagues in the Twins outfield. Emmanuel Rodriguez has fought injuries and missed a lot of time the last two seasons, but when healthy, he splashes potential. Gabriel Gonzalez had a breakout season, impressing with his bat at the three highest levels, and all while still being just 20 years old. Roden appeared in some Top 100 lists. He came to the organization in the trade with the Blue Jays. Mendez is also intriguing. He’s a big, long, strong kid who needs to work on driving the ball for more power, but he has a fantastic approach at the plate. He came to the Twins in the Harrison Bader deal. Not on the 40-man roster but potentially closing in on the big leagues are Kyler Fedko and Kala’i Rosario. Both provided power and speed in 2025. But clearly the top prospect in the organization remains Walker Jenkins, the Twins top pick in 2023. Despite missing a little time early in the season, Jenkins reached Triple-A for about a month at the end of the season and held his own. Questions to Consider 1) How would you fill out the 26-man roster if you had to today? (Since we just looked at hitters today, assume that 13 hitters and 13 pitchers will be on the roster. Tomorrow, I’ll give my thoughts on the opening day pitching staff.) 2) When looking at the offense only, what do you think could be considered “positions of strength?” In other words, if the Twins are talking trade, which positions could the Twins feel OK about trading from? 3) Then, what are the Twins positions of need? What do they need at the big-league level? What positions could they use more MLB-ready depth at? View the full article

Catcher Blake Hunt, a second-round draft choice of the San Diego Padres in 2017 who was involved in the Blake Snell trade, is returning to the club on a minor-league contract. A graduate of Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, the 27-year-old Hunt spent the 2025 season in the Seattle Mariners' organization at Triple-A Tacoma. With the Rainiers, he put up a .272/.368/.452 slash line with eight homers and 35 RBIs in 68 games. Hunt played his first four professional seasons with the Padres, reaching Low-A Fort Wayne in 2019. He did receive a non-roster invitation to 2020 spring training, but the pandemic wiped away the minor-league season. That December, he was one of four players shipped to the Tampa Bay Rays for Snell. The others were catcher Francisco Mejia, right-hander Luis Patino and right-hander Cole Wilcox. View the full article

The camera opens on a quiet conference room overlooking Target Field. It is pristine. It is calm. It is absolutely not calm. This is Succession, Minnesota style. There is coffee. There are spreadsheets. There is a faint sense that someone is about to be told they are still family but no longer in charge. Tom Pohlad stands at the head of the table. He does not raise his voice. He does not need to. He has the tone of a man who has already won the argument fourteen months ago. Tom: Don’t get me wrong. We are still in control. Joe Pohlad sits across from him. He has been here for 19 years. He looks like someone who just realized the word "stewardship" can be used as a weapon. Joe: So… this is happening. Tom: This is happening in the best interest of the organization. Joe: The organization being the Minnesota Twins or the Pohlad family. From the corner, a silent PowerPoint flickers to life. It reads New Partners. Majority Ownership. Best Interest. There are no numbers. There do not need to be numbers. Joe Ryan is there for some reason. No one invited him. Pitchers just wander into these things. Joe Ryan: Sorry, I thought this was a rotation meeting. Tom: It is. Just not yours. (Ryan exits) Derek Falvey leans forward like a corporate cousin who knows exactly when to speak and when to let chaos cook. Falvey: We are aligned. That is the message. Derek Shelton nods slowly from the end of the table. He has the calm expression of someone who has seen how this ends and knows it is never clean. Shelton: We believe in the process. Whatever the process is now. Joe Pohlad stares at Tom. Joe: I was not on board with this. Tom: At first. Joe (raising his voice slightly): I was supposed to bring us back to the promised land. Tom sighs. This is the part where the conversation become personal. Tom: This is hard. On the family. On us. This is not what we envisioned when we talked about generations and stewardship and winning a world championship. Joe: And yet here we are. You take the chair. I take understanding. Tom: You understand now. Joe pauses. He nods. Succession teaches us that understanding is often just acceptance with better branding. Joe (reluctantly): I understand. A beat. Outside, the stadium is empty. Control has been retained. Majority ownership remains. The family business continues. From the hallway, a new limited partner peeks in, whispers something about significant financial cleanup, and disappears. Tom straightens his jacket. Tom: This is for the fan base. Joe: Of course it is. The camera pulls back. The Twins will still be run by the Pohlads. The chair has changed. The power has not. Somewhere, Logan Roy smiles politely and says something about control. Fade to black. View the full article

Twins righthander Bailey Ober threw 418 sliders in 2025, according to Statcast, and they cost him eight runs on their own. His -1.9 Run Value per 100 sliders was eighth-worst in baseball, by that system's accounting, and three of the seven offerings worse belonged to pitchers on the historically inept, gravity-starved Colorado Rockies. Sometimes Statcast's Run Value is misleading, because it can be heavily influenced by a bit of batted-ball luck on a pitch type that might have been put in play just 50 or 60 times in a given season. This isn't really one of those times. Baseball Prospectus offers a much more robust way to evaluate pitch quality, with their StuffPro and PitchPro metrics. These are expressed somewhat similarly to Run Value, but a negative number is good, because they're estimating the effect on run scoring exerted by that pitch, on a per-100 basis. Ober's slider was dreadful according to StuffPro this year, too. It's rare that pitch-quality metrics of any kind (be it PitchingBot, Stuff+, StuffPro or any other) dislike a pitcher's breaking balls this much. Sweepers are almost a hack of such models, to the extent that some teams mark down a pitcher on their wishlist if the strongest recommendation for them is a metrics-friendly sweeper. Ober, though, has both a sweeper and a slider that come in on the wrong side of average—and this metric, unlike Run Value, is trying to look past the results and assess the expected value of each pitch, based on release point, velocity, movement and location. In short, Ober's slider was a disaster for him this season. He never gave up on the pitch, though, throwing it just as much late in the year as at the beginning. That's because the slider isn't really an out pitch for him; it's a bridge pitch. Study the movement plot above, and it's fairly easy to see what I mean. Given his fastball shape and reliance on the changeup and sweeper, Ober used the slider to keep hitters from finding it too easy to identify his offerings out of the hand. The slider lives in between his fastballs and his curve and sweeper in terms of velocity, and it has a different spin profile than the rest of his pitches. Ober is hardly alone in using a pitch that isn't good on its own as an intermediate offering that muddies the picture for hitters trying to pick up spin and get started early on hittable pitches. He lacks the ability to spin the ball at a high rate, but he does manipulate that spin relatively well and uses grips and seam shifting to induce movement that isn't perfectly predicted by his spin axes, creating deception. Even by the standards of a bridge pitch and in Ober's unusually deft care, though, the slider isn't working at all. The solution is simple, though here, it's important not to confuse 'simple' with 'easy'. Ober needs to throw the pitch harder, and it should probably thereby transform into more of a cutter. He throws the pitch with backspin already; he just needs to modify the grip a bit and let it rip more. A firmer slider or true cutter would be a better bridge offering for Ober's mix, given the lift his sweeper achieves and the way he used the slider in 2025. He has other problems to address, but this one is especially urgent. It's one thing to have a pitch that exists only to make other pitches play better. It's another thing to have a pitch that exists only to make other pitches play better, but doesn't succeed in doing so. View the full article

Were you surprised by anything in our first installment of the Top 25 San Diego Padres player assets for 2026? As the countdown continues, we start hitting some of the fringy contributors and some who are unsung. This list ranks the 25 Padres players and prospects with this in mind: Who are the most valuable in the organization's pursuit of building a champion? To do so, we considered age, upside, and contract. Each player's age and control years are based on his Baseball Reference age for the 2026 season and when B-R says he can become a free agent. Here is the link to players 21-25. Stay tuned for the rest! 20. Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP 2026 season age: 19 Controlled through: TBD The Padres' first-round pick in 2025 and the draft's 25th overall selection, Schoolcraft is a left-handed starter who is a few years away from possibly making his MLB debut. At 6-foot-8 and 229 pounds, Schoolcraft is an imposing figure with an arsenal to match. He has a 97 mph fastball, a good low-80s slider and a changeup. All three pitches need some polish, as you might expect for someone who should be a senior in high school this year (he reclassified in December 2023). Schoolcraft made his pro debut at Low Class A Lake Elsinore, pitching just one game to get his feet wet. That is likely where he will begin 2026, with the chance to move up with the Padres' propensity for quickly promoting prospects who perform well. Schoolcraft is the Padres' No. 2 prospect by MLB Pipeline, so the hopes are obviously very high. The Padres have two other highly touted prospects at similar levels in right-hander Humberto Cruz and left-hander Kash Mayfield, both starters who finished 2025 at Lake Elsinore. The teenager was also considered a good hitting prospect coming out of high school, where he played first base, but the Padres and Schoolcraft agreed to focus on pitching. Still, it's a good skill to have in the back pocket. 19. David Morgan, RHP 2026 season age: 26 Controlled through: 2031 Everything has been stacked against Morgan, who went undrafted coming out of college in 2022 yet was intriguing enough to be signed by the Padres. The right-handed reliever never had an outstanding season, posting minor-league ERAs of 4.03 and 5.04 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Still, Morgan started 2025 at Double-A San Antonio and had a 3.12 ERA in seven games, earning a promotion to Triple-A El Paso. In seven games there, he had a 12.71 ERA. Yet the Padres needed an arm in late May and he got the call to make his MLB debut. From there, Morgan grabbed the opportunity and made sure the Padres wouldn't send him back to the minors. Using a versatile mix of pitches, three of Morgan's first four appearances were scoreless. He went on to put up a 3.71 FIP and 161 ERA+ in 41 games, including two as an opener. Morgan struck out 25.9% of hitters while walking 11.9% and limiting opponents to a .208 batting average. He only pitched in one postseason game, but it was a big one. He pitched a scoreless eighth inning, striking out two, in the decisive Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series. Morgan can be penciled into the Opening Day bullpen right now, which is just the latest chapter in his incredible journey. 18. Gavin Sheets, 1B-LF 2026 season age: 30 Controlled through: 2027 Sheets is a wild card who paid decent dividends during 2025. Having been non-tendered by the lowly Chicago White Sox in November 2024, Sheets landed with the Padres on a one-year, $1.6 million deal. The left-handed hitter did well in a much better situation in San Diego, launching a career-high 19 homers while slashing .252/.317/.429. He rotated between first base, left field and designated hitter. Sheets lost some playing time in August after the Padres acquired Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, but settled in at DH for most of September. That position is likely to be where Sheets starts 2026, with some first base sprinkled in depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out. Due to make a projected $4.3 million in arbitration, Sheet will need to match if not improve upon his production if he wants to come back for 2027, his final year of arbitration. Part of that will be cutting down on his strikeouts. He had a career-worst 22.3% strikeout rate, but did balance that out a bit with a career-best 8.9% walk rate. 17. Freddy Fermin, C 2026 season age: 31 Controlled through: 2029 The Padres were looking for any way to get some offense out of the catcher position, which is why they sent two starting pitchers, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek, to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Fermin at the trade deadline. The Padres paid a big price for Fermin, who was stuck behind Salvador Perez as the Royals' backup. Fermin had compiled .268/.314/.383 slash line for a 5.7 bWAR with the Royals since the start of the 2023 season. In two months with the Padres, Fermin's numbers were down a bit at .244/.278/.339 for 0.9 bWAR. He did hit two of his five homers in that time, though. Perhaps starting the season with the Padres and not having to learn a pitching staff on the fly will bolster Fermin's offense. Fermin doesn't walk much, only in 5.5% of his plate appearances, and strikes out 19% of the time. Improving his patience in a more dynamic lineup would be a big step for Fermin, who is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason. The veteran backstop is fine defensively—he's able to control the running game but is slightly below average at framing. He will have to adjust to being the everyday catcher, which shouldn't be a problem. 16. Wandy Peralta, LHP 2026 season age: 34 Controlled through: 2026 If there was a player with little national recognition that most teams would want to clone to their roster, it would be Peralta. He just goes out each season and does his job with little to no fanfare. Entering his third season with the Padres and his age-34 campaign, Peralta is that valuable left-handed reliever who can be put into any situation and give you what you need. After a bit of a rough 2024 in which he had a 5.46 FIP and 105 ERA+, Peralta had a much better 2025 with a 3.62 FIP and 137 ERA+. Peralta strikes out 19.2% of batters and walks 10.2% in his career and is coming off a career-high 71 games. The southpaw is a groundball specialist, getting 55.6% of batters in 2025 to keep it on the ground. In 2025, he used his 95.4 mph sinker 43.6% of the time, changeup 34.5%, slider 16.6% and four-seamer just 5.3%. The Padres' bullpen is perhaps the biggest strength of this team, and the veteran reliever is one of the reasons why. He is a free agent following 2026, so enjoy him while you can. View the full article

Starting in 2022, Daulton Varsho began to establish himself as an elite defensive outfielder. Of his 3,836 innings in the outfield, Varsho has played center (2,063), left (1,222) and right (551). Among the 51 center fielders with a minimum of 1,000 innings under their center field belts in that time, his 18 FRV/1200 slots in as the second highest. Concerning the corner outfield positions, Varsho has MLB’s highest FRV/1200 at 14. Did I mention that Varsho is elite defensively? Varsho has also been above average on the basepaths (9.0 XBR) during his career. Regarding hitting, he has been average (career 99 wRC+), although in limited plate appearances (271) in 2025, he generated a 123 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .326 xwOBA and .310 ISO. That ISO mark ranked seventh among the 309 batters with at least 250 plate appearances. Has Varsho turned the corner into becoming an above-average hitter? Time will tell. Concerning fWAR, Varsho has generated a 7.3 score during his three-season tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays. Suppose Varsho had not split time in center field with Kevin Kiermaier in 2023 and 2024. The corner outfield-to-center field positional adjustment boost would have raised his 2023 fWAR from 1.9 to 2.5 and his 2024 fWAR from 3.1 to 3.4. Regarding 2025, Varsho had two lengthy stints on the Injured list: March 27 to April 29 (shoulder) and June 1 to August 1 (hamstring). If one assumes the same level of fielding and hitting and doubles his innings from 550 to 1,100 and plate appearances from 271 to 542, Varsho’s 2025 fWAR soars to 4.5. When he played, Varsho was an All-Star-calibre player last season. An extension for an elite defensive center fielder entering his age-29 season should be simple. Well, no. Time for a journey through Table Land! Generally speaking, center field is the domain of younger players. Please refer to Tables 1 and 2. During the 2005-2025 period, excluding the pandemic-shortened 60-game 2020 season, there were 26 instances (1.3 per season) in which center fielders aged 31-35 started 120 or more games. There were 134 instances (6.7 per season) in which center fielders aged 26-30 started at least 120 games in a season. In percentage terms, among players who started 120 or more games in a season, 58% were older than 25 but younger than 31. By comparison, only 11% of the times that center fielders started at least 120 games in a campaign were those players older than 30 but younger than 36. For the 30-35 age group, Table 3 provides more detail. For the 2021 to 2025 period, no outfielder older than 30 started at least 120 games in center field; there were seven instances when a player older than 30 started more than 99 games in center field. During the most recent 10-year period with a 162-game regular season schedule (2015-2025), a player older than 30 started 120 or more games in center field eight times. Why the concern over players over the age of 30 starting at least 120 games in a season? Because fWAR is a key input used by teams to determine contract values. Two of the factors that affect fWAR are playing time (innings and plate appearances) and a player’s position. As players age, injuries tend to occur more frequently and take longer to heal, thereby reducing playing time. Moreover, as players age, Father Time becomes evident, resulting in diminished athleticism and performance. Hence, teams often move a center fielder to a corner outfield position in their 30s because their defensive skills are better suited to left or right field (see George Springer). Given the fWAR positional adjustment from center field (+2.5 runs) to left or right field (-7.5 runs), if the Blue Jays were to move Varsho to a corner outfield position during the term of the extension, his fWAR would decrease by approximately one win per season for the balance of the contract (all other things being equal). Therefore, a contract extension for Varsho, as he approaches his 30s, must account for the risk of reduced playing time and a position change. However, are there examples of well-above-average defenders in center field that continued to excel into their 30s? Yes, a limited number. I screened for center fielders who met the following criteria: Played in the majors during the 2005-2025 period. At the age of 30, they were well-above-average defensively according to the DRS metric and continued to excel into their early 30s. Reached the age of 35 during the 2005-2025 seasons. Because he is well known to Blue Jays fans, I included Kiermaier, who retired after his age-34 season (2024). I present Table 4. Carlos Beltrán’s center field defence was no longer well-above average after his age-31 season. However, because he posted a 131 wRC+ and 23.6 fWAR during his age-30 to 35 seasons, I am sure that Beltrán’s employers were unfazed that he no longer patrolled center field on a full-time basis. Still, his center field defence declined as he entered his 30s. Kiermaier remained superb defensively post-pandemic (17 DRS/1200), but, due to limited playing time (an average of 770 innings per season) because of injuries and below-average hitting (89 wRC+), Kiermaier generated a meager 6.7 fWAR over four seasons. After playing five games in 2020, Lorenzo Cain decided not to play during the balance of the pandemic-shortened season. In 2021, his age-35 campaign, he was on the injured list from June 1 to July 27 due to a hamstring injury. In total, he played 78 games in 2021. Yet, during his age-30 to 35 seasons, excluding 2020, Cain continued to excel defensively (15 DRS/1200) in 4,839 innings, and he posted a 105 wRC+ and 15.9 fWAR. He is an example of a player who was superb defensively at age 30 and continued to excel at age 33. We now turn to the Varsho contract extension matter. As Tables 1, 2 and 3 showed, it is unusual for a center fielder older than 29 to start 120 or more games in a season. Furthermore, it is rare for a center fielder to continue to log almost 1,000 innings a season and excel defensively after the age of 30. Cain is the sole example during the 2005-2025 period. Therefore, from Toronto’s perspective, the shorter the Varsho extension, the better. Behold Table 5! The key assumptions in Table 5 are as follows: The 2026 $/fWAR rate is $9 million, which is the figure used by Baseball Trade Values. An arbitrary 3% annual fWAR inflator. Cot’s Baseball Contracts’ $11.8 million arbitration award for the 2026 season. The 2026 3.5 fWAR projection is the average of Varsho’s boosted 2023, 2024, and 2025 fWAR numbers noted earlier (2.5, 3.4 and 4.5, respectively). The 3.5 figure is on the optimistic side, but I believe Varsho can nearly replicate his 2025 123 wRC+ and his defensive prowess in the future, at least in the short term. Varsho’s arm strength returns to its pre-2025 level. After his shoulder surgery in 2024, Varsho’s arm strength averaged 73.7 mph, down from the 83.9 and 83.7 mph in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Although Varsho’s arm strength was typically in the 40th percentile before last season, it was in the fifth percentile in 2025. My estimate of a fair contract is a four-year, $100 million deal that would run from 2026-29. The AAV is on the high side, but the contract does not extend beyond Varsho's age-32 season, when the risks of reduced playing time and a position switch are elevated. The Last Word The reader should note that shopping in the free agent market is different from buying broccoli at the grocery store. At the grocery store, a non-negotiable price is posted, and you can typically take the broccoli from the bin whenever you want it. The free agent market does not have a fixed price, nor can a team acquire a free agent on demand. I know the price of broccoli, but I do not know the market price of a Varsho extension; however, I can estimate it. With that proviso in mind, would Varsho accept a four-year, $100 million extension? I do not know, but it is a fair deal. The optimistic fWAR projection and higher AAV would benefit the player, and the short contract length addresses the team’s presumptive concerns regarding playing time and a potential switch from center field to a corner outfield position. View the full article

When Jacob Misiorowski reached the big leagues in June, it was fair to assume that the Brewers would avoid overcomplicating things and tell him to let his signature fastball eat. Since the start of 2024, no team has had its starting pitchers throw fastballs a greater percentage of the time than the Brewers. Misiorowski’s four-seamer just might be the best among starters, leading all non-openers in Stuff+ (121) and StuffPro (-1.2) in 2025. That wasn’t how it played out. Misiorowski threw his fastball less as a Brewer than he did in Triple A. During his electrifying performance as a long reliever in the postseason, he threw it less than 50% of the time. Misiorowski and the Brewers replaced those four-seamers with more sliders, even though his power curveball is arguably his best secondary pitch and proved tougher for hitters to barrel up in his rookie season. Pitch Type Stuff+ Whiff% Chase% xwOBA SL 118 24.1% 21.8% .309 CU 127 33.3% 34.3% .255 This wasn’t Milwaukee’s pitching coaches abandoning their affinity for fastballs. What Misiorowski calls his slider is effectively a cutter. There is not always a clear line between those two pitch types, but in this case, the distinction matters. The Brewers want most of their starters to throw multiple fastball variants, and thinking of Misiorowski’s slider as a cutter checks that box. They consistently kept his overall fastball usage around 80%, and only changed how he played those two heaters off one another. Misiorowski’s so-called slider had the mid-90s velocity of a cutter, leading all qualified sliders in average velocity by more than 2 mph. It also spun like a cutter; a relatively high spin efficiency means it had a cutter’s offset backspin instead of a bullet slider’s true football spin, and fewer spin units means it spun less than a typical slider would at that velocity. That combination of velocity and spin made it move like a cutter; it didn’t drop much and had less glove-side break. Metric Misiorowski SL MLB RH SL MLB RH CT MPH 94.1 86.1 89.7 Spin Efficiency 45.5% 33.0% 46.9% Spin Units 26.4 28.3 26.9 iVB 6.4 1.8 8.2 HB 3.0 4.5 2.1 If it has the velocity of a cutter, spins like a cutter, and moves like a cutter, it’s probably a cutter. On a graph of velocity and spin, Misiorowski’s pitch lands in its own unique space, but it’s much closer to the brown cutter cluster than the yellow slider one. Most importantly, he and the Brewers used it like a cutter. A traditional slider is often a chase pitch thrown around the edges of the plate, but Misiorowski threw 59.5% of his cutters in the zone. That was the highest in-zone rate of any pitch in his arsenal, and it would have ranked 20th among 405 sliders thrown at least 50 times. He often threw it up and in to righties, a target location similar to his four-seamer. The Brewers believe mixing different kinds of fastballs improves pitch masking. It’s easier to make a four-seamer, two-seamer, and cutter look alike out of hand than other pitch types. Their spin is similar enough to keep a hitter from differentiating them early in the ball’s flight, and the pitcher doesn’t need to change his release to get on top of or in front of the ball, as he does to throw a sweeping breaking ball. Misiorowski is no exception. Look at how tightly his four-seamer (the red tracer) and cutter (the yellow tracer) mirror each other during a right-handed hitter’s decision window, while his curveball (the blue tracer) pops above them immediately. Baseball Prospectus attempts to quantify pitch masking using tunneling metrics, which measure the probability that a hitter will correctly identify a pitch by the time he must decide whether to swing or take. According to this model, hitters were likely to recognize Misiorowski’s curveball, but they could easily mistake a cutter for a four-seamer. Pitch Type FA Probability CT Probability CU Probability CH Probability FA 79.3% 15.7% 2.7% 2.4% FC 38.2% 57.2% 1.6% 2.9% CU 18.3% 4.7% 72.4% 4.6% CH 32.2% 17.6% 8.6% 41.7% That’s not to say Misiorowski’s curveball is not a weapon. Its strong results demonstrate that it has sufficient velocity and movement to generate off-balance swings without great deception. However, the Brewers are often more focused on how a starter’s arsenal comes together as a whole than how each of his pitches plays individually. Through that lens, Misiorowski’s four-seamer and cutter are his best pairing, with the curveball remaining a put-away pitch and an extra tool against left-handed hitters. His postseason sample showed how effective that combination can be when properly sequenced. Opponents managed only a .277 wOBA against Misiorowski’s four-seamer in October, while his cutter yielded just a .147 wOBA and a 41.9% whiff rate. It’s safe to assume the Brewers will keep him on some version of the multi-fastball plan until further notice, even if he labels that second fastball as a breaking pitch. As the guy throwing it, Misiorowski reserves the right to call it whatever he wants, but you and I know what we're seeing. View the full article

After the trade of Dane Myers last weekend, the Miami Marlins found themselves with a shortage of right-handed-hitting outfielders. They acted quickly to fill that hole, acquiring Esteury Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. Ruiz spent most of his age-26 season in Triple-A for the Dodgers and put up monster numbers. In the 106 games he played at that level in 2025, he slashed .304/.412/.511 with a .411 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in Triple-A. It's worth noting that Ruiz originally reached AAA way back in 2022. Repeating a familiar level can lead to improved results without meaningful development, but in his case, there have been some encouraging signs under the hood. Ruiz shined vs. left-handed pitching this past season with a .358/.425/.569 slash line, four home runs and 12 doubles in 123 at-bats. He showed a patient plate approach with a solid amount of in-zone contact at 85.7% and a chase rate in the 67th percentile among AAA hitters, according to Prospect Savant. Ruiz has no issue hitting fastballs—he had an xwOBA above .360 against four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters. His whiff rate against fastballs was only 21.2%, compared to 31.5% vs. sliders, changeups, and curveballs. eUxXckxfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZBUUZBRmNGVlZNQUFWSUJBZ0FIVkFjQUFBTUNVVmtBQWdNSFUxWUZBQUJSQVZNQQ==.mp4 Ruiz's power is lacking, but his speed allows him to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, helping the overall slugging profile. ZzZQUWxfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JWSlRCbE1HVUFRQVcxSUxWQUFIQUZjRkFGa0NCVmNBVVZ3TUFGVU1VMVpRVVFZSA==.mp4 In 2023, Ruiz led the American league in stolen bases with 67 despite missing a full month of that season on the injured list. He ran even more frequently and efficiently in Oklahoma City last season, with 63 steals on 74 attempts in 104 games there. Andrew Pinckney (Washington Nationals) is the only player to spend the majority of 2025 in AAA and register a higher Sprint Speed than Ruiz. TDZPVk9fV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X1ZGSlFYVlJYQkFRQUNRWUVYd0FIVTFCUkFGa05VUVVBQUFjRUJsRlFWVmRjVlFNQw==.mp4 Ruiz's ability to cover ground in the outfield will be useful at loanDepot park. His arm holds him back from succeeding in center field, therefore he profiles best in left field where opponents will have fewer opportunities to take advantage of him. Esteury Ruiz could play an impactful role for the Marlins. He would be best utilized as a platoon bat vs. left-handed pitchers and as a bench option to steal bases. With one minor league option left, he will still need to put his talent on display during spring training to earn his spot on the Opening Day roster. View the full article

On Monday, the Miami Marlins agreed to acquire Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Esteury Ruiz in exchange for pitching prospect Adriano Marrero, sources confirm to Fish On First. Neither club has announced the trade yet. To add Ruiz to the Marlins 40-man roster, Eric Wagaman is being designated for assignment. Ruiz, 26, is being traded for the fifth time in his professional career. He began the 2025 season with the Athletics, but was quickly picked up by the Dodgers. With their Triple-A affiliate, he slashed .303/.411/.514/.925 with 16 home runs, 60 RBI, 62 stolen bases and a 137 wRC+. He was called up late in the season and in 19 games, slashed .190/.261/.333/.594 with one home run, two RBI, four stolen bases and a a 67 wRC+. Once regarded as a top prospect, Ruiz led the American League with 67 stolen bases in 2023. However, his aggressiveness at the plate has been an issue, going from a 19.9% strikeout rate against MLB pitching in 2023 to a 31.8% in limited opportunities since then. This acquisition essentially replaces the recently traded Dane Myers. The organization is looking to take advantage of Ruiz's elite speed and hoping to fix his hit tool. He has one more minor league option remaining and is still pre-arbitration eligible. Marrero, who signed with the Marlins for $350,000 in the most recent international signing class, pitched in 33 innings (10 starts) in the Dominican Summer League, posting a 3.82 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 9.55 K/9 and 3.27 BB/9. The organization was high on Marrero, who showed a promising ability to spin the ball. Wagaman, who was designated for assignment, signed a split deal with the Marlins last offseason. He made the team's roster out of spring training and stuck throughout the entire 2025 season. In 140 games, he slashed .250/.296/.378/.674 with nine home runs, 53 RBI and an 85 wRC+. Despite playing various positions around the diamond, it was all below average and he provided -0.4 fWAR overall. View the full article

As the offseason market churns, the most significant news for the Twins comes from moves that affect off-the-field dealings and less the ones that directly affect on-field competition. The club recently revealed further details about the limited partners purchasing minority interests in the club. Of course, the Pohlads stole the spotlight in that announcement by ousting brother Joe for brother Tom. On the field, the Twins have signed Josh Bell to bolster their lineup and replaced free agent Christian Vázquez with Alex Jackson via a trade with Baltimore. A lot of questions remain regarding the bullpen, but an early offseason trade to acquire Eric Orze from the Rays is the most significant relief pitcher addition to date. Instead of dwelling on the Twins' needs, let's turn to what the rest of the AL Central has done and what the Twins might be up against in 2026. Cleveland Guardians In light of the news that the Guardians will certainly be without Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz while both face federal charges related to rigging bets, the AL Central foes have spent most of their additions on bullpen arms. Shawn Armstrong will bring his veteran presence to Cleveland, after one of the best seasons of his career as he enters his age-35 season. Kolby Allard and Jakob Junis also represent depth arms that Cleveland will need to replace, either through other signings (like Connor Brogdon and Colin Holderman, whom they've also scooped up so far) or from within. Beyond the bullpen, this Cleveland team is currently slated to be the same one we saw last offseason, with familiar names like José Ramírez and Steven Kwan leading the offense. We must remember that this was a group good enough to win the division last season. Additions: Signed RP Connor Brogdon to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: -0.3 Signed RP Colin Holderman to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 0.1 Signed RP Shawn Armstrong to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 1.4 RP Justin Bruihl (acquired from Toronto). 2025 fWAR: 0.0 OF Stuart Fairchild (MiLB deal). 2025 fWAR: 0.0 Subtractions: RP Sam Hentges (signed with Giants). 2025 fWAR: Injured OF Lane Thomas (signed with Royals). 2025 fWAR: -0.5 SP Triston McKenzie (signed MiLB deal with Padres). 2025 fWAR: -0.1 Still on the Board: RP Nic Enright. 2025 fWAR: 0.2 OF Will Brennan. 2025 fWAR: -0.1 RP Jakob Junis. 2025 fWAR: 0.6 RP Ben Lively. 2025 fWAR: 0.4 RP Kolby Allard. 2025 fWAR 0.7 INF Will Wilson. 2025 fWAR -0.4 Chicago White Sox The White Sox will hope to see many of their young players take the next step in 2026, but they have—if nothing else—added some intriguing names to their talent mix. Munetaka Murakami comes over from Japan on a two-year deal, in a bit of a surprise signing. Murakami could become another South Side power bat that the Twins will be forced to pay attention to. Sean Newcomb will add some desperately needed length to the White Sox rotation, which is slated to be led by last season’s Rule 5 pick, Shane Smith. Anthony Kay is a fellow left-handed starter who will come back to the States after a stint in Asia. The White Sox will hope that Kay’s 1.74 ERA over 155 innings will translate back to the United States, as it has for others before him making that same transition. Additions: SP/RP Sean Newcomb to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 1.7 1B/3B Munetaka Murakami to a 2-year deal. 2025 fWAR: NPB SP Anthony Kay to a 2-year deal. 2025 fWAR: NPB SP/RP Chris Murphy (acquired from Boston) 2025 fWAR: -0.2 OF Everson Pereira (Acquired from Tampa Bay). 2025 fWAR: -0.5 Subtractions: RP Steven Wilson (traded to Tampa Bay). 2025 fWAR: 0.4 SP/RP Yoendrys Gomez (traded to Tampa Bay). 2025 fWAR: 0.1 OF Michael A. Taylor (retired). 2025 fWAR: -0.1 RP Tyler Alexander signed a 1-year deal with Texas. 2025 fWAR: 1.3 OF Will Robertson (claimed by Pittsburgh). 2025 fWAR: -0.8 Still on the Board: RP Cam Booser. 2025 fWAR: -0.6 OF Mike Tauchman. 2025 fWAR: 1.4 SP Martin Perez (mutual option declined). 2025 fWAR: 0.8 RP Miguel Castro. 2025 fWAR: -0.1 Losing Tyler Alexander and potentially Mike Tauchman will leave the White Sox with the biggest production voids. The team will only succeed if the young players develop, as the baseball world got a glimpse of last season. While the hill looks steep, it could prove unwise to completely overlook an offensive core of Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel, and Colson Montgomery, now joined by Murakami. Detroit Tigers For much of 2025, Detroit looked like the team to beat in the AL Central. There are still many reasons why they look that way going into 2026. Among all the trade rumors, Tarik Skubal is arguably one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and is still a Tiger. Gleyber Torres is returning to the team to maintain the middle of a formidable lineup, with Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson. On the pitching side, the Tigers have made some significant additions to their bullpen. Kenley Jansen is slated to take over the closer's role as he chases 500 career saves. Kyle Finnegan will bring ample setup experience to deepen the Tigers' bullpen. Additions: RP Kenley Jansen to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 0.6 RP Kyle Finnegan to a 2-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 1.2 2B Gleyber Torres (accepted qualifying offer). 2025 fWAR: 2.6 SP/RP Drew Anderson to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: KBO Subtractions: RP Chase Lee (traded to Toronto). 2025 fWAR: -0.1 SP Randy Dobnak (minor league deal with Seattle) 2025 fWAR: -0.1 RP Alex Lange (signed with Kansas City) 2025 fWAR: 0.0 RP Jason Foley (signed with San Francisco). 2025 fWAR: DNP Still on the Board: INF Andy Ibanez (non-tendered). 2025 fWAR: 0.4 RP Jason Foley. 2025 fWAR: 0.3 RP Dugan Darnell. 2025 fWAR: 0.0 RP Paul Sewald (mutual option declined). 2025 fWAR: 0.0 SP Jose Urquidy (club option declined). 2025 fWAR: 0.0 SP Alex Cobb. 2025 fWAR: 0.3 RP Tommy Kahnle. 2025 fWAR: 0.1 RP Rafael Montero. 2025 fWAR: 0.1 SP Chris Paddack. 2025 fWAR: 0.7 While the Tigers are certainly losing a lot of recognizable names, those names did not quite perform as hoped. Jansen and Finnegan bring some name recognition with them as well, and Detroit will hope they bring their 2025 production with them. Kansas City Royals The Royals were initially viewed as a team with limited payroll flexibility heading into the offseason. That hasn’t stopped them from making some trades and deals, and specifically dealing from a place of depth: their pitching staff. Most of Twins Territory didn’t believe the Royals would be competitive last season, even after a series of signings. Unfortunately, they were competitive, and the Royals only seemed to strengthen themselves. Kansas City has added to its roster with the acquisition of lefty Matt Strahm (one of my favorite moves of the offseason) and outfielder Isaac Collins, both acquired via trade. Additions: RP Matt Strahm (acquired from Philadelphia). 2025 fWAR: 1.5 RP Nick Mears (acquired from Milwaukee). 2025 fWAR: 0.5 OF Isaac Collins (acquired from Milwaukee). 2025 fWAR: 2.6 OF Lane Thomas to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: -0.5 RP Alex Lange to a 1-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 0.0 OF Kameron Misner (acquired from Tampa Bay). 2025 fWAR: 0.3 SP Mason Black (acquired from San Fransisco). 2025 fWAR: -0.1 C Salvador Perez re-signed to 2-year deal. 2025 fWAR: 0.5 Subtractions: RP Jonathan Bowlan (traded to Philadelphia). 2025 fWAR: 0.2 RP Angel Zerpa (traded to Milwaukee). 2025 fWAR: 0.3 OF Logan Martin (traded to San Francisco). 2025 fWAR: N/A RP Sam Long (signed with NPB Chiba Lotte). 2025 fWAR: -0.4 OF Mike Yastrzemski (signed with Atlanta). 2025 fWAR: 2.4 RP Hunter Harvey (signed with Cubs). 2025 fWAR: 0.5 Still on the Board: RP Taylor Clarke. 2025 fWAR: 0.3 OF MJ Melendez. 2025 fWAR: -0.6 OF Randal Grichuk. 2025 fWAR: -0.4 SP Michael Lorenzen (declined mutual option). 2025 fWAR: 1.2 C Luke Maile. 2025 fWAR: 0.3 INF/OF Adam Frazier. 2025 fWAR: 0.7 Mike Yastrzemski certainly represented value as a solid MLB regular last season, so losing him shouldn’t be entirely overlooked. At the same time, the Royals look ready to reload in the outfield and should continue to compete for the AL Central. Not to mention, there still seems to be steam around a desire to acquire outfielder Jarren Duran from the Boston Red Sox. What do these division moves mean for the Twins? Clearly, some AL Central foes have strengthened themselves, while the Twins haven’t done much. The AL Central does continue to be the AL Central. With the Twins still having a strong starting pitching core, they should be able to put themselves in a position to compete throughout the season, as none of the division teams have seemed to separate themselves from the rest of the pack. View the full article

Here, you can find the first half of this list. This is a continuation of the top 10 Cubs free agent signings of all time, inspired by the 50th anniversary of modern MLB free agency. 5.) Ryan Dempster When the Cubs signed Dempster before the 2004 season, he was nothing more than a depth arm. He was coming off a brutal season and a half with the Reds, wherein he had an ERA over 6.00 across 37 games. He was still recovering from Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2003 season. He briefly appeared at the end of the 2004 season, but did not start making a real impact until taking the closer job from LaTroy Hawkins early in 2005. He collected 33 saves in 35 save opportunities—the best conversion rate in the league—after originally beginning the season in the rotation. He saved 52 more games over the next two seasons before moving back to the rotation in 2008, which was his best season in a Cubs uniform. That season, he made 33 starts with a 2.96 ERA and earned his first All-Star selection since 2000. He was the ace of a staff that also featured Carlos Zambrano, who had been the Cubs’ default ace in the few seasons prior. Whether it be in the bullpen or the rotation, Dempster was one of the essential pieces of the pitching staff when the Cubs won back-to-back division titles in 2007 and 2008. After that 2008 campaign, Dempster signed a 4-year deal to stay in Chicago and filled the veteran leadership role on some Cubs teams that were quite forgettable. The other reason why he is so high on this list is that his exit from Chicago brought back one of the greatest Cubs starters of all-time, and a key piece of the 2016 rotation. At the 2012 trade deadline, Dempster was traded to the Rangers for a package involving right handed starter Kyle Hendricks. (The Cubs got lucky there.) 4.) Jason Heyward Heyward was, by far, the hardest signing to rank here. His 8-year, $184-million contract remains the largest in Cubs history. The Cubs usually rank in the top 5 among MLB’s most valuable franchises, trailing only the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox, so it remains baffling that 19 teams have handed out a larger free-agent contract or extension. There’s no question that the frugality we have seen from ownership of late is an effect of this contract. Over his 7 years as a Cub, Heyward accumulated 9.1 WAR. In comparison, he posted 23 WAR in his 5 years with Atlanta, and 7 WAR in his single season with St. Louis. He slashed .245/.323/.377 with only 62 home runs and 32 stolen bases, which were all far cries from the numbers he posted prior to 2016. He played a dependable center or right field, earning Gold Gloves in his first 2 seasons in Chicago. The Cubs even cut ties with Heyward before the 2023 season, which was supposed to be the last year of his contract. His inclusion on this list comes from one moment that took place in the visitors' locker room at Progressive Field, during the rain delay in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. Lockdown closer Aroldis Chapman had just given up a game-tying 3-run home run to Rajai Davis in the bottom of the eighth, and before the top of the 10th, the umpires called the teams off the field for what would be a 17-minute delay. At this point, Heyward gathered the team, and spoke from his heart, highlighting the path they took to get there and their ability to win as a team. The mood changed from disappointment to hunger. The team knew who they were, and knew they could win. Anthony Rizzo called the rain delay the “best rain delay of all time” and credited the team's eventual victory to Heyward. There’s no real way of knowing how the team would have fared without the rain delay, but that question will forever be moot. Heyward was a major disappointment for virtually all of his time in Chicago, but the legend of his speech will live on forever. 3.) Andre Dawson The only Hall of Famer on this list, Dawson had one of the most peculiar cases of free agency ever. After 11 seasons, 3 All-Star selections, 6 Gold Gloves, 3 Silver Sluggers, a Rookie of the Year award, and a collection of knee injuries, Dawson wanted out of Montreal and the artificial turf used at Olympic Stadium. After the 1986 season, Dawson expressed a need to play for a team who played on grass, and heavily campaigned for an offer for the Cubs. Due to collusion among MLB owners, many high-profile free agents were having trouble securing contracts during the 1986-87 offseason. Cubs GM Dallas Green originally resisted signing Dawson, due to a desire to play Brian Dayett in the outfield. Dawson’s agent, Dick Moss. hatched a plan whereby he and Dawson would approach the Cubs with a blank check and let the Cubs decide what they would pay him. The Cubs decided to pay him $500,000, with a bonus of $150,000 if he avoided the injured list, and an extra $50,000 if he made the All-Star team. He admired Wrigley Field and the dedication of the fanbase, and was willing to bet on himself, knowing his play on the field would earn him a bigger contract next offseason. That certainly worked out for him, as he won the NL MVP in 1987, slashing .287/.328/.568 while leading the league in both home runs (49) and RBI (137). Though Dawson did his part, the Cubs finished in the cellar, but this would make the first time ever that a league MVP played for a last-place team. It was the first of 5 consecutive All-Star seasons for Dawson on the North Side, where he also earned 2 Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger, picking up down-ballot MVP votes in 3 of the next 4 seasons. The Cubs only reached the postseason once during Dawson’s tenure, reaching the NLCS in 1989 before being quickly dismissed by the Giants. Still, his 6 seasons in Chicago were enough to cement him as one of the most loved Cubs of all time. 2.) Ben Zobrist After losing to the Mets in the 2015 NLCS, the uber-talented but young Cubs core was ready to be taken seriously. Like Dexter Fowler, Zobrist was signed to provide veteran leadership for the clubhouse and some consistency to an offense with a lot of free swingers. Fresh off a World Series win with the Royals, Zobrist came to Chicago to reunite with Joe Maddon and fill a hole at second base after a trade of Starlin Castro, and to provide that key versatility that he displayed over his tenure with the Rays. His presence was felt almost immediately, as he made the All-Star team in his first season and finished with 3.5 WAR. Zobrist, like Heyward, was a hero of Game 7 of the World Series. After the rain delay (and Heyward’s speech), Kyle Schwarber, playing in his first series since getting hurt in April, singled off Cleveland reliever Bryan Shaw. After pinch-runner Albert Almora Jr. advanced on a Kris Bryant fly ball, Rizzo was intentionally walked, bringing Zobrist to the plate with two runners on. This became the biggest at-bat of the game, as Zobrist doubled to left, driving in the go-ahead run. That hit earned him World Series MVP honors, and his second World Series ring in as many years. Zobrist had varying levels of success throughout his next 3 seasons as a Cub, and his power nearly evaporated after 2016, but he still helped the team with his defensive versatility and ability to get on base. Zobrist’s Cubs tenure gets more interesting when his age is considered. He was 35 when he signed the 4-year deal, and remained a productive player through his late 30s, something that only a few position players do anymore. 1.) Jon Lester Lester is the clear and obvious pick for the greatest Cubs free agent signing of all time. The 6-year, $155-million contract he signed prior to the 2015 season is one of the best contracts that any team has given to a starting pitcher in the last 25 years. The Cubs were expected to turn a corner in 2015. Some of their top-ranked farm system got a cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2014, but 2015 would mark the debut of the best prospect in baseball: Kris Bryant. Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell were all highly ranked among the top prospects in baseball and seemed set to make their debuts, as well. Culture guru Joe Maddon was signed to be the skipper, and all of a sudden Theo Epstein’s vision for the Cubs was coming to be. Lester was one of the top arms on the market, and the Cubs were instantly seen as a top suitor. Lester was seen as the veteran, frontline arm who would slot perfectly above Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, and emerging rookie Kyle Hendricks. Lester made 2 All-Star teams as a Cub and finished second in NL Cy Young voting in 2016, when he also posted the lowest ERA of his career (2.44). Lester was a proven postseason arm, with a 2.11 ERA in 76 2/3 playoff innings with Boston, and that continued in Chicago, where he had a 2.44 ERA in the postseason. Lester finished his time in Chicago with a 77-44 record, a 3.64 ERA, and 940 strikeouts. This was a rare example of a long-term contract for a pitcher that worked throughout the majority of the term. He had some down-ish years, but even in his late 30s, he was able to eat innings and get outs. At his best, he was an ace who dominated in the playoffs and was essential in the Cubs’ pursuit of the World Series. View the full article

Following up on their previous reporting, Kevin Barral, Isaac Azout and Ely Sussman discuss whether the Marlins could still wind up trading Edward Cabrera this offseason.View the full article