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For much of this winter, one of the storylines around the Chicago Cubs was the sheer lack of bodies. They spent several weeks with eight or nine open spots on their 40-man roster. Even during the offseason, that's extremely unusual. With the signing of Alex Bregman and the pickups of outfielder Justin Dean and left-handed reliever Ryan Rolison on waivers in the last fistful of days, though, the team is now up to 39 players on their 40-man roster. They've filled the slate, with a combination of trades, several small signings, and the Bregman deal, which feels like a capstone to a great offseason. As we know, though, the offseason isn't over. The team is weighing its options with Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner in the wake of signing Bregman, who gives them a crowded infield to go with their crowded starting rotation and a bullpen that (if not quite overloaded) is a bit short on flexibility. Let's run through the roster, reaching beyond the 40-man, even, to understand what the team has, what it needs, and what lies ahead for them. Locked-in Regulars This category includes only the players who have an ironclad role on the team for the coming season. We know not only that they will be on the team come Opening Day, but roughly what they'll be doing. They're expected to be trusted members of the core all year, if they're healthy enough for that. Position Players Miguel Amaya Tyler Austin Moisés Ballesteros Alex Bregman Michael Busch Pete Crow-Armstrong Ian Happ Carson Kelly Seiya Suzuki Dansby Swanson Starting Pitchers Cade Horton Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Edward Cabrera Jameson Taillon Relief Pitchers Daniel Palencia Phil Maton Caleb Thielbar Hoby Milner Hunter Harvey Jacob Webb This is a large group, given that it's only the middle of January. Trading for Edward Cabrera and signing Bregman clarified the plan for Moisés Ballesteros to serve as the regular designated hitter, pushing Seiya Suzuki to right field. The big moves created uncertainty for some individuals, as we'll discuss next, but they brought the vision of a playoff-caliber team into focus. The Displaced Five incumbent Cubs players are left with more questions than they had before, after adding Bregman and Cabrera to the mix but losing Owen Caissie. At least two have become prominent trade chips; at least one probably just got a step closer to his dreams. Nico Hoerner - Like it or not, the team has had serious discussions about trading Hoerner in three of the last four major transaction windows (offseasons and the run-up to the July trade deadline). That doesn't mean they've ever been especially close to dealing him, or that they'll do so now, but they've had chances to quash any such talk and head off rumors, and they've never really taken them. Because of Hoerner's limitations as a player (especially his lack of power at the plate), they've always understood his to be one place in their lineup where an upgrade was possible, even though they've also always loved him for what he does on the field and who he is in the dugout and the clubhouse. All of that remains true. Matt Shaw - Bregman directly knocked Shaw out of his comfortable nest at third base. He could be left to drift and figure things out on the fly, backing up both Hoerner and Bregman, or he could be installed as the second baseman in the wake of a Hoerner trade. He could also be traded, to any of a handful of interested teams, if the price is right. Kevin Alcántara - COVID and injuries conspired to give the Cubs a fourth option year on Alcántara, who is really starting to feel wasted in Triple A. That doesn't mean he'll be a star in the majors, though, and indeed, there's plenty of doubt both inside the Cubs organization and throughout the industry that he'll ever harness his tools well enough to be a regular. That might finally break in his favor this year. With Caissie off the roster, there's a more open path to a bench role for Alcántara, platooning with Pete Crow-Armstrong and (indirectly) with Ballesteros. Given that he looks increasingly like a fourth outfielder, anyway, the Cubs might feel it's the right time to give him some opportunities in the majors and not to prioritize him playing every day in Iowa. Then again, they could prefer to keep him in a rhythm, in case an injury forces them to turn to him full-time for any stretch. Colin Rea - When he signed an extension with the Cubs, Rea probably thought he had a firmer grasp on a rotation spot than he'd had when he signed with them for 2025. No such luck. After Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer and the team dealt for Cabrera, Rea is now on the bubble. He'll only pitch in the rotation if someone gets hurt or the team elects to use six starters. It's more likely that he'll fill a swingman role all year, starting when needed and working in flexible, medium-leverage relief. Javier Assad - Still able to be optioned to the minors, Assad could spend much of his age-28 season in Des Moines. That's not really fair to him, but the injuries that sidelined him throughout last season put him out of sight and out of mind when the team drew up its plans. He's their seventh starter entering camp, and even if attrition renders him their fifth for a while, Justin Steele is slated to return during the summer and Jaxon Wiggins will start knocking loudly on the door by the trade deadline. Optionable Big-League Depth To their credit, the Cubs have accumulated quite a few plausibly useful big-leaguers (especially pitchers) whom they can send to the minors to maintain roster flexibility all year. Position Players Justin Dean - Picked up on waivers from the Giants, after they'd picked him up on waivers from the Dodgers, Dean is a great story. He scrapped for a decade, often playing independent ball and in the Mexican League, before getting to the majors for the first time last year—with the World Series-winning Dodgers. He's already set to receive a championship ring. The Cubs snagged him with an eye on his good speed and defense; he's extremely light-hitting. As a righty batter behind a fairly left-handed collection of outfielders, though, he could spend some time on the big-league roster as a fifth outfielder. He can be optioned and stashed, which makes him useful on a team light on outfield depth. James Triantos Pedro Ramírez - Both Triantos and Ramírez were added to the 40-man in November to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. They're the current depth options, should the Cubs trade either Hoerner or Shaw, but it's most likely that even if Hoyer moves one of his would-be starters, he'd bring in someone to fill that bench role, leaving these two to ready themselves for the majors in Triple A. Pitchers Ben Brown - It's not going to work as a starter. The Cubs essentially acknowledged that much by the end of last season. Yet, Brown could begin the season as a starter in Iowa, stretched out to forestall calamity. By midsummer, if the depth in the rotation appears likely to hold, he should be converted to short relief, permanently. Porter Hodge - On one hand, the Cubs would love if Hodge asserted himself as a legitimate setup man again. On the other hand, he'd then become a de facto locked-in guy, like Palencia, where the availability of an option doesn't actually help. They need flexibility, to survive the heavy usage every bullpen runs into at some point in the long season. Hodge, the up-and-down guy, at least comes with some pedigree and upside when it's his turn to rotate through the final reliever slot. Gavin Hollowell Luke Little Riley Martin Jack Neely Ethan Roberts Ryan Rolison Jordan Wicks - Useful because he can deliver long relief or make a spot start, Wicks is nonetheless disappointing. A first-round pick taken for his high floor, he's turning out to have a floor of being the 11th-best starter in a contending depth chart and the eighth-best lefty reliever in that mix. Not on the 40-Man, But Could Be Minor-league signings shield a team from both injuries in camp or early in the season and the thorny roster rules that make it so hard to rotate enough solid relievers through the bullpen. The Cubs have made five important ones, and one that probably won't matter. Position Players Christian Bethancourt - With Ballesteros as the only third catcher on the 40-man, it's vital to have a trustworthy veteran backstop you can keep around in Triple A in case of an injury. Reese McGuire proved the value of this role last summer, though Bethancourt is not as good as McGuire was. Scott Kingery - This is the one that shouldn't matter. Unless the team trades one of Shaw and Hoerner and doesn't do anything to replace them, he's just filler, keeping spots warm in Des Moines and being ready in case of emergency. Pitchers Tyler Beede Jeff Brigham Corbin Martin Collin Snider - None of these four have minor-league options, so once they go onto the 40-man, they have to stay with the big-league team. That makes it most desirable that at least one pitches well this spring, doesn't make the roster, but agrees to go to Iowa and wait for a shot. At least three of these four have the right to opt out of their deal if not added to the 40-man by a certain date, so expect them to compete for the final spot in the pen. The Cubs can still make other additions this winter, but they might need to come with subtractions. Picking up Rolison (the sixth lefty reliever on the 40-man, counting Wicks) leaves them teeming with fringy arms, any one of whom they can cut if the need arises and an opportunity to improve presents itself, but this group has a lot of utility. If the season started tomorrow, the Cubs would be ready. View the full article

One way or another, Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers will divide time at first base for the 2026 Milwaukee Brewers. In 2025, each was a productive hitter. Vaughn batted .308/.375/.493 in 254 plate appearances after joining the team in early July. Bauers played a much smaller role and didn't enjoy the same kind of luck, but he still hit .235/.353/.399 in 2018 trips to the plate. By now, Vaughn's emergence is extremely familiar to Brewers fans. Our Jake McKibbin also laid out the ways that Bauers blossomed last year, back in November. With Christian Yelich likely to spend nearly all his time at designated hitter and William Contreras needing a few appearances there to spare him from overuse at catcher, Vaughn and Bauers will vie for the same pool of playing time in 2026. Neither is an especially capable defender anywhere but first base, and Bauers's only fallbacks (the corner outfield spots) are places where he's fourth or fifth on the team's depth chart. Since Bauers bats left-handed and Vaughn bats right-handed, there will be at least some version of a platoon in effect. With any platoon, though, there comes a set of questions. Which of the two players involved is the better hitter, considering their performance against both left- and right-handed pitchers? If it's the right-handed one, a pure platoon—whereby the lefty sees every right-handed pitcher you can get them in against and the righty faces all the southpaws—doesn't necessarily make sense. Is one of them a better defender than the other, by a distance sufficient to make it more than a tiebreaking consideration? And finally, what idiosyncrasies of each player's swing and approach are worth considering when playing matchups, beyond simple platoon dynamics? The first question instigatea a more serious consideration of the other two, in this case, because coming off 2025, Vaughn sure looks like the better of the two hitters in a vacuum. He made both approach and swing changes after joining the Brewers that unlocked the latent talent that made him a top draft pick by the White Sox in 2019. Bauers, by contrast, was exceptionally patient and showed some lethal swing characteristics when he was healthy, but he spent much of the campaign either shelved or hampered by injuries. Here's how Vaughn hit after coming to Milwaukee, broken down purely by handedness: vs. RHP: .262/.315/.456 in 168 plate appearances vs. LHP: .403/.494/.569 in 86 plate appearances Here's the same breakdown for Bauers: vs. RHP: .238/.358/.411 in 201 plate appearances vs. LHP: .200/.294/.267 in 17 plate appearances No one has any illusions about what will happen when a southpaw takes the mound in 2026: the Brewers will start Vaughn at first base. Based on the numbers above, though, you'd also give Vaughn the nod against righties. He didn't get on base as well as Bauers did against them, but he was both more powerful and more likely to come up with a hit, as opposed to requiring a walk to reach. We're clearly in one of those situations where a direct platoon (which, given the distribution of lefty and righty pitchers throughout the majors, would give Bauers about two-thirds of the playing time) is too blunt an instrument. We can briefly consider the defensive aspect, but at first base, that matters much less than it often does when a team is platooning (for instance) a pair of outfielders. By the eye test, Bauers is a better defender. He's taller and faster, and occasionally makes the kinds of plays ranging toward the hole that are almost impossible for right-handed fielders. Vaughn, who's shorter than a typical first baseman and doesn't move well to his right, has gotten better at both footwork and using soft hands on scoops and hard grounders. Both grade out as subpar fielders, though, and by about the same magnitude. In each of the last two years, Vaughn has been tagged with -4 Defensive Runs Saved, to Bauers's -1, but that's largely because Vaughn has played much more than Bauers. Broadly speaking, they're of similar defensive value, with Bauers holding a small but not significant edge. That leaves us to figure out what differentiates the two, beyond handedness, at the plate. Since the goal should be to find some right-handed pitchers against whom it makes more sense to use Vaughn than to use Bauers, the important question is: which ones? First, let's harken back to a table I produced for a piece about Jackson Chourio's brilliant performance against offspeed pitches, earlier this offseason. I found that Chourio's unusually flat swing was part of the reason why he crushed changeups—and, indeed, that while steep swings tend to be better overall, there is one area where it works better to swing flat: on changeups and splitters. Pitch Types RHH v RHP RHH v LHP Four-Seamers Whiff Rate RV/100 Whiff Rate RV/100 Steep 20.2 -1.813 17.2 -1.045 Flat 24.2 -2.415 23.3 -2.505 Sinkers/Cutters Steep 15.1 -2.173 16.2 -1.81 Flat 15.4 -2.448 16.6 -2.23 Breaking Steep 32.7 -1.788 30.6 -1.893 Flat 27.8 -1.878 22.7 -1.907 Offspeed Steep 35.9 -2.948 35.5 -3.165 Flat 26.9 -1.422 28.4 -3.132 Pitch Types LHH v RHP LHH v LHP Four-Seamers Whiff Rate RV/100 Whiff Rate RV/100 Steep 17.6 -1.396 20.8 -1.071 Flat 22.5 -2.874 22.6 -1.548 Sinkers/Cutters Steep 15.6 -1.202 17.7 -2.82 Flat 16.5 -1.845 15.8 -3.246 Breaking Steep 30.1 -1.553 33.8 -3.246 Flat 21 -0.957 30.2 -3.186 Offspeed Steep 32.1 -2.983 36.1 -2.693 Flat 25.4 -3.603 28.2 -4.851 That's important information, though it's also incomplete. There's a bias in studying whiff rates and run values per swing based on pitch type, because (for instance) the best changeups to hit are the ones pitchers leave up, which will invite any hitter to swing flatter than if the pitch was diving below the zone as the hurler intended. Part of the fact that it's better to swing flat against changeups is that it's best to have had the plate discipline not to swing at all on the changeups that would have required steep swings. So, we have to consider swing characteristics to find the right matchups for both Bauers and Vaughn, but we also have to understand their approaches. Bauers gets a lot of credit, for instance, for the better patience he displayed last year, which pushed that OBP against righties almost to .360. It's extremely hard to get on base 36 percent of the time in the modern game and not be a valuable hitter. Bauers showed great plate discipline, which led to more walks and fewer strikeouts. Vaughn made similar adjustments, but he's at a material disadvantage when it comes to swing decisions against righties. Most of the platoon advantage derives from an opposite-handed batter's superior ability to identify pitches and anticipate their locations, relative to a same-handed batter seeing the same offerings. Keeping that in mind, let's turn to a quick analysis of the two players' swings: Jake Bauers Split Swing Speed Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) v. RHP 76.6 MPH 34° 12° 3° Pull 29.2 v. LHP 74.9 MPH 34° 13° 7° Pull 32.5 Andrew Vaughn Split Swing Speed Swing Tilt Attack Angle Attack Direction Contact Point (in.) v. RHP 70.9 MPH 30° 7° 1° Pull 28.5 v. LHP 71.6 MPH 32° 8° 4° Pull 30.7 Bauers swings faster; that's not news. Since we already feel very confident that Vaughn will play any time it's possible against lefties, the big question comes against righties. Bauers's swing speed advantage is huge, but there's also a marked difference in what kinds of swings they each take against righties. Compare these slow-motion breakdowns of their moves. Untitled design.mp4 First, note the different paths their hands take right at the start of their swings. Vaughn is very direct, which is where the tendency toward flatness comes from. He keeps his hands high and works around his back side, sinking into his back leg even as he pushes off of it. Bauers, by contrast, works down to get himself in better position to start working up. He does what hitters call working underneath the front side, creating more tilt and a longer stroke. Compare a still from videos of each player early in their swing, and you can see (even with less than perfect matching of camera angle) how Vaughn stays upright, opens his hips and shoulders sooner, and lets his hands get farther from his body sooner. Bauers has more bend, and tucks the back elbow in to his ribcage more, creating lift and torque but channeling it to work vertically, as well as horizontally. Watch the animations above again, and you can see how the two swings are geared to take each hitter to a different place, via a different route. Vaughn's swing is about getting his hands around his body and into the space just beyond the left side of his torso as smoothly as possible, with his trunk rotation supplying all the power. Bauers is much more expansive. His hand path is about getting underneath his own front side, which stays slightly more closed. That gives him something firm around which to rotate, but the rotation can't all come from his trunk, because the front side is firmer. Thus, Bauers's hands and arms create much of the bat speed, generating a longer but faster swing. As you might guess, it's much harder to exploit Vaughn's swing than it is to do so with Bauers's, even for a right-handed pitcher. Vaughn is better against offspeed and breaking stuff, even against righties, because his bat path allows for a lot of mishit singles. The bat moves in an arc that leaves more of it in the hitting zone longer, generating vicious line drives when he's right on time but plenty of flares and sharp grounders when he isn't. Bauers is capable of hitting mistakes farther, but much more likely to swing and miss on a well-executed pitch that messes with his timing or moves sharply. Given the steepness of his swing, you might expect Bauers to struggle more with rising fastballs, too, but it's not so. He was so good at laying off the ones he couldn't handle last year that he forced pitchers to either walk him or come into his wheelhouse. Assuming he can do that again, Bauers is the right guy to use against fastball-dominant righties, especially if they have a firm breaking ball. Vaughn, however, should start whenever the Brewers are scheduled to see a righty who's likely to throw the kitchen sink at them, loading up on breaking balls and offspeed stuff. Of course, a pitcher will typically approach right-handed batters and left-handed ones differently, so from day to day, the Crew will also have to study the tendencies of their opponents within each handedness matchup. If a pitcher is heavy on soft stuff to lefties but goes right after righties with high-rise heaters, the team might not have a great matchup for tham at first base that day. Most of the time, though, there will be a clear right answer. The best guess is that Vaughn will start about half of the games at first base, if both players are healthy all year, with Bauers starting another 50 or 60 and the rest going to one of the team's slugging prospects as they reach the majors late in the season. With the righty in the would-be platoon being slightly better than the lefty, a perfect platoon wouldn't be wise, but a modified one could be yet another way for the Crew to find an extra handful of runs over the course of the year. View the full article

Were the San Diego Padres the runner-up in the sweepstakes to acquire Nolan Arenado? That is unknown, but the Friars were serious bidders to acquire the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman from the St. Louis Cardinals, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. Arenado was traded on Tuesday to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a pitching prospect, right-hander Jack Martinez. But where the 34-year-old Arenado would have played would have been the interesting part. With Manny Machado entrenched at third base, the Padres would have wanted Arenado, a six-time Platinum Glove winner, to play first base. Currently, the Friars have a combination of Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth at first base. Another impediment in the Padres' attempt to add Arenado was how much salary the Friars would take on. The Diamondbacks took on $31 million of the $42 million Arenado is owed on the final two years of his contract. Rosenthal reported that the Padres wanted to pay less than the $11 million the D'backs will pay Arenado. Southern California was a destination for Arenado, who was born in Newport Beach and went to high school at El Toro in Lake Forest. View the full article

Now we're talking. For all that talk about how the Boston Red Sox were the lone team in Major League Baseball not to spend a dime in free agency this offseason — which really stung around the time the Alex Bregman news was announced — the front office has certainly responded in a big way. They've added their long-coveted No. 2 starter, signing Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal per multiple reports. Suarez, 30, earned his first All-Star nod in 2024 and followed that up with a 3.20 ERA and 3.21 FIP for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2025. He'll immediately step in behind Garrett Crochet atop Alex Cora's rotation, with Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, and Johan Oviedo likely to follow. Much more to come... View the full article

On Wednesday afternoon, the Minnesota Twins announced that they claimed utilityman Vidal Brujan from the Braves organization. To make room on their 40-man roster, the Twins Designated Mickey Gasper for assignment. (More to come) View the full article

The San Diego Padres have added two members to their front office. Dennis Lin of The Athletic is reporting that Bud Black and Wil Myers will be joining the San Diego Padres organization. Myers will be a special assignment coach in player development, and Black will be a senior advisor to baseball operations. Both have previous ties to the organization - Black as a manager and Myers as a player. Black managed the club for 9 seasons from 2007 to 2015, posting a 649-713 record with zero playoff appearances. Myers, who played for Black, had a .781 OPS and 135 home runs across eight seasons with the Padres. What are your thoughts on these hires by the club? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The Boston Red Sox need to shift their sights after losing Alex Bregman to free agency. They have their work cut out for them as they try to rebuild some trust with a rightfully frustrated fan base. Ken Rosenthal has identified two different plan B options. Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that "some in the Red Sox organization are high on free agent LHP Ranger Suarez". Suarez, 30, has had a very productive stat to his career with the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2025, he made 26 starts while throwing 157 1/3 innings. He posted a 3.20 ERA (3.21 FIP) and a 17.4% K-BB rate. MLBTR projected him to earn $115 million over five years in free agency this year. Additionally, Rosenthal speculated that Nico Hoerner of the Chicago Cubs could be an Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette alternative. Hoerner, who will be a free agent following the 2026 season, may be available after the Chicago Cubs won the Bregman sweepstakes. Rosenthal speculates that it would take "a young pitcher such as Connelly Early or Payton Tolle" and is uncertain whether Red Sox brass would be willing to part ways with either asset for one year of Hoerner. Across 665 plate appearances, Hoerner carried an OPS of .739, a 109 wRC+, seven home runs, and 29 stolen bases. Though he primarily played second base in 2025, Hoerner has spent time at all positions aside from catcher, first base, and right field. Do you think the Red Sox should add either player? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

In public and behind the scenes, conflicting information is flying back and forth in the wake of the Cubs' signing of third baseman Alex Bregman. The arrival of Bregman displaces third baseman Matt Shaw, pushing him (for now, at least) into a utility role for the 2026 Cubs. As the team ponders the endgame of its offseason, however, the front office has received multiple calls about both Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw. How likely either is to move depends almost entirely on whom you ask, and the rest of the equation is when you ask them. This is a fluid situation—perhaps surprisingly so. Sources familiar with the team's thinking say Chicago would prefer to deal Shaw, all else being equal. Though Hoerner can become a free agent after 2026 and will cost them $12 million this year, the level of organizational faith in him is much higher than in Shaw, whose uneven 2025 campaign called into question both the magnitude of his talent and his makeup. The younger player's stock is down slightly after a year in which he got a false start in the majors, found his footing in late spring, and got hot just after the All-Star break, but which ended with a thud in late September and October. Still, his trade value is higher than Hoerner's, and after trading top prospects (Zyhir Hope, Cam Smith and Owen Caissie, most notably) in multiple deals over the past two years, the Cubs could use an infusion of talent in their farm system to go with the core they've built at the big-league level. Trading Shaw could get them a player who helps in 2026 (for instance, they need better optionable pitching depth) and a prospect who bolsters that farm. One team stands out as the top candidate to match up with the Cubs on a trade for Shaw: the Kansas City Royals. They need help at second base, where Jonathan India is penciled in for this season. India batted .233/.323/.346 in 2025, struggling mightily after an early-season plunking that briefly sidelined him with a concussion. Though only entering his age-29 season, India is aging rapidly at the plate, and he's barely a viable defender at second base. Shaw projects to hit .240/.310/.408 this year, according to early and simple Marcel projections. India projects to hit .242/.335/.381, with his superior on-base skills making up for less slugging, but Shaw is a far better defender and baserunner. The Royals have the left side of their infield locked up for the long haul, and in Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone, they appear set for a handoff at first base sometime in the next three years. A young, controllable second baseman would finish the puzzle for them. Kansas City also has interesting pieces to offer in trade. The Cubs were interested in both of the Royals' first-round picks last summer, had they slid into the second round. Outfielder Sean Gamble and shortstop Josh Hammond were both plucked from the high-school ranks, and neither will be ready for the majors any time in the next two years, but the Cubs' system needs better depth, and those guys are the caliber of prospect available in a deal like this one, where the team trading them is getting a long-term, big-league piece, but not a star. If Chicago could pry loose Gamble, Hammond or catching prospect Blake Mitchell, it would get a conversation started. The negotiation would then have to pivot to the player who would replace Shaw on the big-league roster and help the Cubs in their push toward a pennant this season. Utility man Nick Loftin is the kind of bench piece Chicago would need if they jettisoned Shaw, but he has limited value because he's not a candidate to play everyday for a contender. Starter Kris Bubic, in whom the Cubs had interest last summer before his elbow began barking and the Royals pulled him off the trade market, has just one year of team control remaining, but his pitch mix appeals to the Cubs' coaching and analytics staff. However surprising it might be to most big-market fans, though, the Royals are in win-now mode. They want to maximize the value of their time with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel García and ace starter Cole Ragans. Although they might not be in a position to take on his full salary, the team would prefer Hoerner to Shaw. The Cubs would have to get more help for 2026 to give up Hoerner—perhaps both Bubic and Loftin—but the Royals are one team who might pay the required premium. For Hoerner, the Cubs would have to get a difference-making pitcher to pull the trigger on a deal, while trading Shaw would be more about aligning things better and amassing talent. The Red Sox, Twins, Yankees and Giants all could have interest in one of the two infielders, in the right deals. Other teams could enter the mix, depending on how some free-agent sweepstakes turn out, but a source in another front office said Wednesday that the Cubs are gathering information quickly, with an eye toward making a decision soon about whether to trade either infielder or proceed with the roster as-is. In that context, the Royals are perhaps the team with whom they could most easily line up. It's more likely that both players are still Cubs come Opening Day than that they're dealt, but if that changes, keep an eye on the Royals. View the full article

Which Brewers prospects are flying under the radar yet could break out in 2026? We review three names who could flip up Milwaukee’s pipeline this year. Some of these farm talents could even break onto the big stage at American Family Field as soon as this year. Included in this video are prospects Luke Adams, Luis Lara, and Brock Wilken. View the full article

Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were able to reap the benefits of having Myles Straw land in their laps as a result of their efforts to secure more international bonus pool money with which to woo Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki. That part of the plan ended up failing, but the Straw experiment certainly didn’t, as he played a meaningful role for the Blue Jays during their resurgent 2025 season. But with all of the happenings that have taken place this offseason, and those that are yet to come, how will Straw fit in for the Jays this upcoming year? Will he be a contributor who helps the team succeed once again? Without question, as a former Gold Glove winner, elite defense has always been his calling card. In 2025, Straw may not have started too many games (67 to be exact), but he sure made his presence felt as a frequent defensive replacement. He ended up playing a whopping 133 games in the field. In doing so, the 31-year-old outfielder made just one error in 187 total chances. In addition, he recorded five outfield assists and 18 defensive runs saved (DRS). His 11 outs above average (0AA) ranked him in the 97th percentile in the entire league. So, practically, it felt like the Blue Jays had another Daulton Varsho playing for them in the outfield, making their defense almost impenetrable. However, Straw also managed to provide some reasonably solid offensive production along the way. He put up a .262 average and a .680 OPS, along with 51 runs scored, four home runs, 32 RBIs and 12 stolen bases in 299 plate appearances. As a result, his bWAR of 2.9 was the second-best mark of his career. But the return of Anthony Santander from his prolonged absence due to injury and the addition of Kazuma Okamoto to the roster equation for 2026 have certainly tightened up potential playing time for the upcoming season. So, will Straw’s potential to impact games be enough to keep him on the roster? On defense alone, the answer would be "of course" – he has one of the best gloves on the entire team. But including the hitting aspect of his game, his 91 wRC+, -0.5 WPA and -3.78 RE24 put him behind the likes of Addison Barger (107 wRC+, -0.5 WPA, 1.91 RE24), Nathan Lukes (103 wRC+, -0.4 WPA, 5.87 RE24), and even the lesser-used Davis Schneider (127 wRC+, -0.1 WPA, 5.62 RE24) in 2025. Moreover, that's with Straw putting up some of the best offensive numbers of his career. With the aforementioned players having also shown the ability to provide solid defense in the field, it gives them that much more value overall for the Jays. Of course, that doesn’t even include Okamoto, who could further complicate the outfield picture if used as a super utilityman. As a result, if the Blue Jays have the roster space available, Straw will likely retain his role as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner off the bench, though he could see his starts diminish considerably. But if Toronto is ultimately forced into a roster crunch with the moves they have made or will make this offseason, Straw could be the unfortunate candidate to be pushed out of a spot when all is said and done. View the full article

The bullpen sell-off at last year's trade deadline was staggering in its sweeping totality, but when you drill down to the individual moves, most weren't terribly surprising. Unloading the free-agency-bound Danny Coulombe was a given. Brock Stewart's brief run of decent health made him a clear sell-high guy. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax were known trade candidates, pitching well with two-plus years of control remaining. The real shocker was the late-breaking decision to trade Louis Varland. Even for a rebuilding team, this decision was tough to figure, with Varland still under team control for five years and seemingly a great fit as the carryover building block in a reimagined unit. The message sent in trading him, and completing a bullpen teardown that left almost nothing behind: we can create more Varlands. The Twins seem to believe he is the case-in-point for the argument in favor of their course of action — a ground-up bullpen rebuild based on transitioning marginal starters into standout relievers. In fairness, he's a compelling example. Varland was a respectable talent while rising through the minors, even winning Twins minor-league pitcher of the year honors twice, but he was a 15th-round draft pick and never a true top prospect. When given the chance to start in the majors, he repeatedly came up short. But when the Twins flipped the switch from starter to reliever, first temporarily in the 2023 playoffs and then permanently last season, Varland transformed into something else entirely: a dominant force, a natural. Coming out of the pen, he was a different pitcher. The type that draws big interest from contenders at the deadline. You can make similar arguments for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, but they both have pretty unique traits that enable them to thrive as relievers: Duran's unrivaled velocity, Jax's deep arsenal of high-quality pitches. Relatively speaking, Varland keeps it pretty simple. He's got a hard fastball and one good breaking ball, and he relies on that tandem almost exclusively at the expense of his lesser offerings. Theoretically, that player type — hard-throwing righty with one good secondary — is abundant in the Twins system, and almost any system really. Most teams just aren't brazen enough to go all-in on the strategy of rapidly manufacturing MLB relievers out of these fringy, unproven young arms. Yet it appears to be exactly where Minnesota's front office is headed as they sit out the free-agent relief market entirely and hurtle toward spring training with a collection of "starters" on the 40-man roster that includes: Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Andrew Morris, Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, John Klein. Some of these guys are going to the bullpen, without much delay. There's no practical way around it. This flip-switch doesn't always take, at least not right away. We saw the downside play out in the second half last year as Adams and Ohl floundered, despite possessing a similar type of prospect intrigue as Varland did when he was coming up. There's also the matter of selling young pitchers on this plan of giving up their future as starters before it has much chance to take shape. Then again, this could be another area where Varland serves as a valuable precedent to reference. Looking back now, you wonder if both team and player feel like pursuing the opportunity to start in 2024 was a waste of time. He ended up struggling badly in the majors with a 7.61 ERA and spent most of his season in Triple-A, delaying his service clock and big-league paydays at age 26. With the current SP depth chart as it is, there are going to be a lot of nominal "starter" prospects headed to the minors to open up the 2026 campaign. That is, unless they immediately embrace the relief role, where their strengths can be maximized, injuries can be reduced, and the MLB path is fast-tracked. As a persuasive proof of concept, the Twins can point to Varland, who went within the span of one-year from flameout starter toiling in St. Paul to entrenched MLB bullpen fixture, setting the all-time record for postseason appearances with Toronto. It was an amazing evolution and one that the Twins seem to be banking on their ability to repeat, several times over. View the full article

Preseason predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt. The methodology used to reach certain decisions or projected outcomes often doesn't match what fans or quasi-experts have in mind for a team in the upcoming season. With that caveat, FanGraphs' popular ZiPS projections for the 2026 season hit on the San Diego Padres on Monday. If you are unfamiliar with the system created by Dan Szymborski, he provided an introduction to this year's rankings. The TL;DR of that is these are baseline projections for players based on where they are in their career and where they are going. With that, let's dive into what ZiPS popped out on the Padres. Padres Position Player Projections The accompanying chart of projections shows that the Padres have four position-player groups projected to have 2.2 fWAR or lower. For a Padres team looking to win at least 90 games for the third straight season, which would be a first in franchise history, that is a bit much. Before we get to those groups, what did ZiPS think about the strength of the offense? It begins with right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., who checks in at a 4.9 fWAR and a .265/.356/.461 slash line with 26 homers, 80 RBIs, 25 steals, and a 125 OPS+. Pretty similar to what he did in 2025. Next is center fielder Jackson Merrill at 3.6 fWAR. Merrill's projected slash line is .270/.320/.458 with 20 homers and 75 RBIs, a season closer to what he did as a rookie than he did in 2025 when he battled a couple of injuries. There was a curious situation with the shortstop and third base projections. Shortstop, with only Xander Bogaerts listed, has a 3.3 fWAR, but Bogaerts himself has a 2.7 fWAR. Third base, meanwhile, is at 3.2 fWAR, with Manny Machado at 3.2 and Sung Mun Song at 1.7. Song is also in the mix at second base. As far as real numbers, Machado comes in at .258/.321/.430 with 23 homers and 84 RBIs, Bogaerts at .259/.326/.374 with 10 homers and 52 RBIs, and Song at .238/.304/.360 with 12 homers and 57 RBIs. That covers the good positions. The next three spots are basically league average. Left field comes in at 2.2 fWAR with Ramon Laureano, who came over at the trade deadline, checking in at 1.6 fWAR, and Bryce Johnson at 0.9 fWAR, with Johnson also listed as the backup in center. Laureano has a projected .242/.314/.428 slash line. Second base has a 2.0 fWAR with Jake Cronenworth splitting time at the position with Song and Will Wagner. Cronenworth, with a 1.8 fWAR, has a slash line of .233/.335/.373. At catcher, which has a 2.1 fWAR, ZiPS lists Freddy Fermin as the starter with Luis Campusano as the backup, as expected. But when you look at the projected stats, Campusano has 111 more plate appearances than Fermin, likely due to the former also getting time at first base and designated hitter, per the playing time projections. Fermin has a 1.0 fWAR and a .234/.288/.344 slash line, while Campusano has a surprisingly high 1.9 fWAR and a .247/.327/.393 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs. Campusano has only had one positive fWAR season, coming in at 1.0 in 2023, and never hit more than eight homers in a season (2024). Friars fans would be ecstatic to see that type of production from Campusano, however. Now for the three subpar spots. Cronenworth is also the projected starter at first base, a position with a 1.2 fWAR. Gavin Sheets and Campusano are also at first in what figures to be a heavily platooned spot at this point. Sheets checks in with a .237/.303/.401 slash line with 16 homers and 59 RBIs for a 0.6 fWAR. DH, often a strength of teams or at least middle of the pack, is actually the Friars' weakest position with a 1.0 fWAR. This is figuring on a combination of Sheets, Campusano, and Machado, among others. As Szymborski writes, "I’d feel better about the Padres if they had a better starter at either first or designated hitter, but this is a solidly above-average lineup." Padres Pitching Staff Projections This is the spot that will make or break the Friars in 2026. With little depth to rely on, the Padres will need the starting rotation to remain healthy — and that counts on one injured player returning to form. The chart and the projections differ in the fWAR provided. Nick Pivetta is listed at 2.8 in the chart, but his stat projection has him at 2.3. Similarly, Michael King is a 3.3 and 2.2, Joe Musgrove 2.4 and 1.4. Randy Vasquez and JP Sears are basically even in both, with Vasquez at 0.8 and 0.7, and Sears flipped at 0.7 and 0.8. Kyle Hart is the No. 6 option at 0.3 and 0.7. Musgrove is making his way back from Tommy John surgery, so he is a definite wild card in the entire mix. Considering he had his surgery in October 2024, so should be on schedule to be a full participant in spring training and ready for Opening Day, barring any setbacks. There are no surprises here. The Padres are still hoping to add to the rotation, whether through free agency or a trade, and perhaps more than one arm. While almost everyone really likes the Friars' bullpen, ZiPS was a little more cautious than other projections. That has nothing to do with closer Mason Miller, who checks in with a 1.7 fWAR, or the setup crew of Adrian Morejon (0.9), Jeremiah Estrada (0.9), or Jason Adam (0.6). Instead, it reflects on the status of Wandy Peralta, who is entering his age-34 season, and the surprise showing of David Morgan, who was a struggling minor-leaguer before capitalizing on his first MLB call-up in 2025. Both are projected for 0.3 fWAR in 2026. Other Takeaways ZiPS doesn't hate the Friars. "The Padres look a lot like the 2025 team, with a win projection in the high 80s and 90 being well within the probable range. But it’s a fragile 90 wins," Szymborski writes. One potential position player to keep an eye on is backup outfielder Tirso Ornelas. ZiPS has Ornelas, who made his MLB debut in 2025, with a 0.9 fWAR and a .239/.309/.358 slash line with 10 homers and 49 RBIs. Where he is getting those 476 plate appearances, though, is whole 'nother question. That probably brings this full circle. If ZiPS is projecting nearly 500 plate appearances for a possible fifth outfielder, while not listing him in the graphic as an outfield option and the No. 4 DH option, you should probably take most of this with a grain of salt. There is no doubt some good stuff in the ZiPS projections for you to digest, just don't take it as a single source for predicting the future. Plus, who knows when A.J. Preller will add a bat to the first base-DH mix or another arm to the rotation? View the full article

Seeking championship-caliber players with the leadership intangibles to match, by signing the likes of Alex Bregman and Dansby Swanson, the Chicago Cubs have definitively stated which veterans they're willing to spend on in free agency. View the full article

It's forecasting season! An annual staple at the dawn of the new year is the gradual release of player projections for the upcoming campaign on websites such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. FanGraphs alone hosts an entire army of projection models, each with its own estimates and methodology. Steamer uses basic underlying numbers and regresses players toward league average. The Bat is based on a similar approach, while its newer variant, The Bat X, incorporates Statcast data to a heightened degree. ATC aggregates all existing projection systems based on what specific stats they're good at forecasting – averaging the results of multiple models is thought by many to be the most reliable method of projecting players. More recently, OOPSY was introduced, the first of its kind to use pitch modelling and bat tracking data in its forecasts. Today, though, we'll be looking at the Szymborski Projection System, or ZiPS, created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It has been around for longer than all the other ones mentioned above, and it's rather unique in that it identifies a series of close historical comparables for each player and prognosticates performance based on how the careers of their comps unfolded. Szymborski has been rolling out ZiPS projections by team over at FanGraphs since November, and on Tuesday morning, he released the system's first batch of estimates for the Toronto Blue Jays. How does ZiPS feel about the Jays going into 2026? Position Players: Few Weaknesses Suffice to say, the forecast is strong for Toronto's infield. Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement form a potent defensive duo up the middle, and Kazuma Okamoto has enough offensive upside to be an above-average third baseman if his fielding doesn't fall off a cliff; his closest comp according to ZiPS is longtime Mariner Kyle Seager. It's easy to forget, given how well his October went, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could easily have a better regular season than he did in 2025, and advanced offensive stats have long stood by him. Of note: Two of Guerrero's top three closest comps are Albert Pujols and Rafael Palmeiro. That'll work, as will the 4.9 combined fWAR that Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman are predicted to accrue. ZiPS is clearly sold on the offensive strides Kirk made last year, and with Addison Barger and Davis Schneider available to fill in gaps in the infield from time to time, there isn't a single hole in this section of the roster. ZiPS is also optimistic about what Daulton Varsho could do in a full season after what he flashed a season ago, banking on the rare and impressive power + defense combo he boasts at a premium position. The corner outfield and DH positions are a bit of a mess in terms of playing time estimates, with more capable players than spots on the roster, but regardless of who gets the lion's share of the reps, it's unlikely that one specific bat will hold the Jays back anywhere. This is a high-floor offense that still features a diverse set of skills from top to bottom after scoring the second-most runs in the AL in 2025. If they can add another elite bat, their ceiling will be pushed as well. A Deep Bullpen Many of you may be surprised at how highly ZiPS thinks of this bullpen. At the time of writing, these projections have been released for 25 teams (the Orioles, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, and Dodgers are still to come). Toronto's combined reliever fWAR projection of 3.9 is the fourth-highest of the teams that Szymborski has sized up so far, behind only the Brewers, Phillies and Red Sox, and tied with the Guardians. While the Jays lack an A-list closer, ZiPS has the sixth-to-eighth-inning collection as one of the best in the league. It's delightfully high on Tommy Nance and gave a resounding thumbs-up to the Tyler Rogers signing. He may not be Jhoan Duran or Mason Miller, but readers would surely be delighted to see the 3.38 ERA, 74 strikeouts, 23 walks, and *eight* home runs allowed that Jeff Hoffman is pegged for across 61.1 projected innings pitched. Further down the list, ZiPS is also sold on Braydon Fisher's breakout 2025, estimating a 27.1% K rate for him this year – third-highest on the staff behind Hoffman and Dylan Cease. In fact, the model is content enough with this group to the point that Szymborski opined the team could even trade a reliever if another contender happens to need one early in the season. I wouldn't bet on that, as injuries and underperformance are always possible, but it speaks to the progress we've seen since the 2024 bullpen clocked in as one of the worst in baseball. The overarching theme is availability: There are a ton of bulldogs back there, with Eric Lauer capable of going multiple innings (as well as José Berríos if he decides he's okay with relief work), Louis Varland and Rogers as durable as they come, and enough strikeout guys to balance it out in Hoffman, Yimi García, Brendon Little, Nance, Fisher, and Mason Fluharty. Wide Range of Outcomes in Rotation This is where ZiPS isn't as confident. It likes the additions that have been made so far, with Cease good enough to be the de facto ace of the staff and Cody Ponce receiving a relatively optimistic projection as far as fifth starters go. However, between Shane Bieber's health, Trey Yesavage's lack of experience, and Ponce coming off unremarkable seasons in Japan before suddenly exploding onto the scene in Korea (he hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2021), there is a moderate amount of risk. Interestingly, Szymborski argues that because of what could go wrong here (Bieber battles injury all year, Yesavage regresses as the league adjusts to him, Ponce doesn't translate as smoothly as hoped), the Blue Jays would improve their 2026 outlook more by signing one of the remaining starting pitchers on the free agent market instead of Kyle Tucker. Because Cease and Ponce were both acquired before the Winter Meetings, this train of thought likely hasn't occurred to many fans, but it's intriguing to consider. Of course, chasing a Framber Valdez or a Ranger Suárez would come with its own set of risks and affect the team far beyond 2026. Questions exist about Valdez's makeup, and Suárez's stuff is declining amidst a questionable bill of health. At this point, I'm not at all saying they should pursue either one, but ZiPS's diagnosis of the rotation as is helps to illustrate that, while its upside is undeniable, things could unfold in many different ways, and its floor is lower than that of the dynamic position player group. On the other hand, if things go well, a potential bounce-back from Berríos would merely be an added bonus, no matter what capacity he pitches in. The Verdict So, where does this leave us? With all that happened in 2025, there's only one thing left for this team to accomplish. ZiPS likes the position they're in. Not mentioned above are the Rays, which ZiPS currently sees as likely to hover around .500 again. If we add up Toronto's projected fWAR totals by position, the sum is 45.6. Add that to the common shorthand that a 0-WAR team would win 48 games, and the Blue Jays' projected ZiPS win total rounds up to 94 – exactly the same as last year. The AL East will be strong, but one more marquee addition ought to push the Blue Jays over the edge as the clear favourites. View the full article

Alex Bregman is no longer a member of the Boston Red Sox. While there's a lot to discuss in terms of the impact of him signing with the Chicago Cubs, there’s still reason for optimism as we inch our way toward the start of spring training. Bregman leaving this organization isn’t the end of the world, even though some fans and analysts would have you believe it is. Bregman turns 32 during the 2026 season and has been a steady (if not declining) offensive player over the last few years. His quad injury in 2025, an injury he also sustained earlier in his career, doesn’t paint the picture of health that a team looking to invest long-term in a player is likely looking for. Especially a team who has the most recent medicals on that individual. Maybe I’m grasping at straws here, but I don’t like this deal for the Cubs and I’m glad the Red Sox didn’t go to that number to retain Bregman’s services for the next five years. None of that is the reason for optimism though. That comes in the form of the free agents still available. Both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette remain in the pool as of this writing. Section 10 Podcast’s Coley Mick posted this interesting bit of information the morning after Bregman’s signing was announced: Well, that’s certainly something. Like Coley, I’m not expecting Tucker to the Red Sox to be announced any time soon, or at all really. There’s been nothing connecting Tucker to Boston all that tangibly, so it would be incredibly shocking to have him land with the Red Sox, especially after Craig Breslow made comments at Fenway Fest indicating a trade of an outfielder wasn’t incredibly likely. Just in case though, let’s take a look at both Bichette and Tucker to see what impacts they could offer to the Red Sox in 2026 and beyond. First, Tucker is a year older, 28, than Bichette, 27. Both are looking for long-term contracts that will keep them in whatever city they sign with for the bulk of their career. You’d have to imagine that both will likely also look for an opt-out or two with a limited or no-trade clause built into this deal. Positionally, they couldn’t be more different. Bichette is a shortstop who is open to moving to second base as quickly as this season, whereas Tucker is an outfielder who could slot in either corner outfield spots with ease in Boston, although he played right field exclusively for the Cubs last season. Both would provide stability at their respective positions, but Bichette’s skill set is much more needed in Boston than Tucker’s, even though the latter is a far superior defender. Following Bregman’s exit, there are now two open holes in the infield for Boston: second and third base. Marcelo Mayer will take one of them over, without a doubt, but that still leaves an opening. Signing Bichette to play second and shifting Mayer to third makes a lot of sense for the organization. Offensively, both players offer upgrades. They both played roughly the same amount of games in '25, 136 for Bichette and 139 for Tucker. Tucker slashed .266/.377/.464 with a 136 wRC+ and a 4.5 fWAR. Bichette slashed .311/.357/.483 with a 134 wRC+ and a 3.8 fWAR. Both of these free agents would provide positive offensive impacts for the Red Sox. Bichette comes with the pedigree of leading the league in hits twice in his career, but Tucker offers more power. The Red Sox are surely counting on another productive season from the likes of Trevor Story while hoping that Roman Anthony becomes the superstar he is destined to be. They'll also crossing their fingers that Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela, Willson Contreras, and eventually Triston Casas all have impactful seasons. Adding either Bichette or Tucker to that lineup makes them even deeper and gives the team a legitimate threat to get on base every time they are at the plate. Notably, Boston is left-handed heavy (Anthony, Casas, Mayer, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida), which could give an edge to Bichette. ESPN’s Kylie McDaniel has drastically different contract projections for Bichette and Tucker. His most recent projections, where he absolutely nailed the Bregman contract, has Tucker receiving a contract of $418 million over 11 years, with potential deferrals. After the Bregman signing, I still think this number could be in play for Tucker. I really don’t see the Red Sox doing anything like this, but the closer we get to spring training without Tucker signing could mean he’s willing to take a short-term, high AAV pillow deal to reenter free agency in the next few seasons (á la what Bregman did last year). For Bichette, McDaniel projects $150 million over five years. To be frank, there’s no way this is the number anymore. Bichette should push well past the $200 million mark now that Bregman has signed for $175 million. The best hope that the Red Sox have for Bichette is that their deferral plan pays more up front than on the back end, thus making it more enticing for the player. A $200+ million dollar player in Boston shouldn’t be a rarity, but Breslow has yet to prove he can get a long-term deal done for a marquee free agent. Both Bichette and Tucker check those boxes, so we’re now just waiting to see if the Red Sox are actual players in the deep end of the pool. I’ve been pretty vocal here on Talk Sox for the Red Sox to pivot away from Bregman and sign Bichette for a while. Now, Bregman is forcing them to do that by signing with the Cubs. I would love to see someone of Kyle Tucker’s caliber in Boston but there’s already a big enough logjam in the outfield as we speak, so bringing him in on a long-term deal would be tricky in multiple ways. But in either case, the Red Sox now have to dive in with both feet to prove to the fan base that they actually want to compete in a loaded American League East, lest they will just tread water and waste the peak years of youngsters Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony. Let's hope that's an unacceptable outcome for the front office. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals and their fanbase walked into 2025 expecting Jac Caglianone to announce himself loudly. After all, it was hard not to dream when he slashed .322/.389/.593 with a 160 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A, launching 15 home runs in just 50 games before his June call-up. That kind of production usually comes with a warning label for opposing pitchers. Instead, Caglianone’s rookie season in the majors felt more like a car stuck in neutral. A lingering hamstring injury wiped out a month of reps, and inconsistency did the rest. His final line, .157/.237/.295 with a 46 wRC+, looked more like a glove-first bench piece than the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft. That surface-level disappointment, however, hides a much more interesting story. A rare stumble, not a red flag For the first time in his professional career, Caglianone failed outright. That matters, and not in the way critics might think. Some players sprint through the minors without ever tripping, only to hit a wall in the majors and panic. Caglianone hit that wall early, learned how hard it is, and now knows exactly where it stands. Failure can be a brutal teacher, but it’s also an honest one. Caglianone has adjusted at every level before, and there’s little reason to believe this challenge is different. The Royals didn’t draft a finished product; they drafted a hitter with elite tools and the capacity to learn how to use them against the best pitchers in the world. Tools that still scream upside Even during an ugly rookie stat line, the underlying traits never disappeared. Caglianone’s bat speed clocks in at a well-above-average 77.4 mph. His raw power is immense, the kind that doesn’t need perfect contact to leave the yard. Pair that with strong bat-to-ball skills, and you have the outline of a middle-of-the-order force. Patience will be key for Kansas City. Power hitters aren’t microwave meals; they’re slow-cooked. Given time, Caglianone’s left-handed bat can anchor an offense rather than tease it. The unluckiest hitter in baseball Caglianone didn’t just struggle—he ran headfirst into baseball’s cruelest math. Among hitters with at least 150 batted-ball events, no one was more unlucky. His .239 wOBA contrasted sharply with a .321 expected wOBA, creating a -.082 gap that led all of MLB. That’s not just bad luck; that’s cosmic-level frustration. Balls he squared up found gloves. Line drives died at the warning track. The process was often better than the results, and over time, those numbers tend to meet in the middle. The one adjustment that matters most If Caglianone is going to touch his ceiling, the path is clear: plate discipline. Knowing when to swing and when to take is one of baseball’s hardest skills, especially when pitchers are firing 100-mph fastballs that rise like elevator shafts and snapping curves that vanish at the knees. His 38.5 chase rate sat well above the league average of 28.4 percent, a sign that pitchers could bait him off the plate. At the same time, his meatball swing rate was just 64.3 percent, far below the league norm of 76.3 percent. In simple terms, he chased too many bad pitches and didn’t punish enough good ones. That’s not a death sentence. It’s a roadmap. Caglianone is young, talented, and already armed with the experience of getting punched in the mouth by major-league pitching. With even modest improvements in pitch selection, the hitter the Royals envisioned doesn’t just reappear—he announces himself loudly in 2026. View the full article

According to the transaction log on Rodolfo Castro's MLB player page, the Toronto Blue Jays released the infielder on January 9. On Tuesday, 7 News reporter Ari Alexander reported that Castro was granted his release so he could sign with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Nippon Professional Baseball. Castro, 26, signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays this past November. He played in the majors with the Pirates and Phillies from 2021-23. Jays Centre's Jesse Burrill wrote about Castro in a roundup of minor league signings last month: Featured image courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images. View the full article

Here at North Side Baseball, we're going to bring you a lot of deep analytical dives on Alex Bregman over the next few days, weeks and months. Matt Trueblood has already gotten in the weeds over his swing tilt and his fit in the lineup, while others have discussed him being the Cubs' top target and what it means for Matt Shaw. If you are familiar with what I enjoy, you'll know that I'm a massive proponent of the analytical side of the game, that I feel strongly that the data matters. But excuse me for a moment, because the meatbalal side of me sometimes just feels like we have to see it to believe it. To see what Bregman actually does with the bat in his hand, let's break down a plate appearance he had against the Tampa Bay Rays in September and see what Bregman is capable of bringing to the table for the Cubs lineup in a different way;. To set the stage, the season is getting late. The 84-70 Boston Red Sox are visiting division rivals, the Tampa Bay Rays. The Red Sox are in the American League Wild Card hunt, entering the day battling with teams such as Houston and Cleveland for a chance to extend their season with a playoff run. The Rays have had a somewhat disappointing season, but have Drew Rasmussen on the bump for the game. Rasmussen is in the midst of an excellent season where he will finish with an ERA below 3.00; it's a tough matchup, even if the Rays' overall record is less than sterling. The plate appearance in question is in the third inning and is the second matchup of the evening between Bregman and Rasmussen. In the top of the first, Rasmussen quickly got up 0-2 on the star third baseman, but after an at-bat-saving foul ball, the right-handed pitcher threw four balls, some of which were close takes, walking the Sox hitter. While I won't dive super deep into this matchup, I do want to point out one pitch in particular; the 0-0 cutter that Bregman watched. This is a great pitch. It's 91 mph, right on the knees. You can't do anything with this pitch. This is nearly unhittable; keep this in mind for later. Getting into the appearance I'd like to highlight, the game now sits with the Rays leading 2-1, and there is already one out in the top of the third (Trevor Story started the inning with a weak ground out to second). Bregman steps into the batters box and takes strike one again: a sweeper right down the pipe. While yoiur initial reaction may be "why would you take that, it's right down Broadway?!", it's important to note that Bregman is not good against sweepers, finishing the year with a -3 run value on the pitch (by far his worst of 2025). He has just a .200 wOBA on the pitch. Drew Rasmussen didn't surrender a home run on the sweeper in 2025, either. It doesn't matter that this is right over the plate; it's not a pitch you have to swing at, and Bregman doesn't. This is clearly a plan. Bregman is, once again, unconcerned about getting behind in the count. Now ahead in the count, Rasmussen has lots of options. With four pitches that graded out with a Stuff+ rating of at least 108, he also has deception on his side: "what will be throw"? He could go back to the sweeper, but it's not his only choice. Maybe he goes with the fastball up, or a slider/cutter off the plate. He got him to look at a perfectly placed cutter in the plate appearance before, so maybe he goes back there? The righty decides to do just that, and fires up a wicked cutter that a lesser hitter may have chased off the plate, but Bregman shows great discipline and evens the count. What could have been 0-2 or a weak ground ball to second is now an even count; Bregman is back in the at-bat. On f1-1. the Rays' pitcher gets a little wild, wasting two 96-mph fastballs, one up, and another out. Neither are particularly close; neither require much analysis. No one was going to swing at them in a 1-1 or 2-1 count. The first was well high and the second, well outside. They're just not good pitches; nor would they get many swings. Bregman's patience has earned him a 3-1 spot and the ability to remain patient and pick a pitch. Perhaps, however, Bregman gets a little too patient. Rasmussen leaves a cutter right down the pipe that Bregman probably should have crushed. Maybe he was expecting it to dive away from him a little more like the 0-0 pitch in his first plate appearance. Maybe he was just surprised he left it there. We can't know for sure. You can even see him sigh a little after the pitch; he knew that was a mistake pitch and he didn't offer. But this is also why you get ahead in the count: you can be very selective. Another reasoning; Rasmussen hasn't been the same strikeout artist in 2025 as he had been in the past. He's controlled batted balls wonderfully, but his strikeout rate sits below the league average. Bregman must not be overly concerned with striking out; he hasn't swung the bat yet all game. As the count is full, neither side is overly interested in giving in and the Red Sox hitter is going to be forced to swing the bat. Bregman knows that the season is on the line in every at-bat at this point of the year, so if you have an opportunity, you need to take it. Rasmussen is a fierce competitor and knows the teeth of the Boston lineup is behind the third baseman. An out here is his best chance of shutting down any possible momentum. Rasmussen dials up another pitch from his arsenal, this time going with a sinker around the same place at which he got Bregman to watch a cutter drop in. Bregman stays on it, and fouls it off. He doesn't have elite bat speed, but because his bat remains in the zone so long and his hands are quick, he's able to get enough of it to stay alive. Now, Rasmussen dials up another fastball, this time running it up to 96 mph. It's headed to the same area as the cutter early in the count, which was such a close one. It's a ball, but it's not so much of a ball that Bregman can leave it up to an umpire. This isn't a waste pitch; this is a pitch designed to get a swing, and he gets it. The problem, if you're Rasmussen, is that Bregman isn't going to whiff on this. He's able to get his hands out, flips the bat and fouls it off. The appearance remains alive. There is a reason Bregman's strikeout rate has been elite; he just doesn't swing and miss very often. Two straight heaters have been fouled off; one down, one away. Rasmussen isn't ready to give in yet, and throws a third consecutive fastball. However, this time, he changes the location. This is a gnarly 95-mph pitch up and in on the hands a bit. It's a strike, right on the black. This isn't a pitch you're going to get on top of, even with a flat bat path like Bregman's. But again, Bregman lives to see another pitch, getting his hands up enough to foul it straight back. He's made it clear; you're not going to get him on the four-seamer. We're eight pitches deep, and the battle continues. Thus far, Bregman has let two pitches go by in hittable spots, spit on an outside cutter, fouled off a handful of fastballs, and knows that something probably has to change on this pitch. Rasmussen's best pitch is likely his cutter, and he throws it 30 percent of the time. He loves getting the thing low and away, like he did on the previous at-bat and like he did on the 1-0 pitch this time. He goes back to it here, but he makes a mistake; he hangs it. Unlike the last time, where Bregman watched a hittable cutter go, he takes advantage of the mistake. If you pay attention to Rasmussen, you'll see him mouth something. I'll assume it's a four-letter word; he knows what happened. After eight pitches of being highly selective—of fouling off and grinding him down—Boston's slugger gets ahold of one; Bregman ties the game at 2-2. This is what a professional at-bat looks like: an at-bat with a very defined plan. Bregman knew not to attack an early pitch ill-suited to his swing. He knew where Rasmussen throws the cutter, and he didn't expand the zone until he had to. He even made up for watching a hittable cutter; he learned a lesson mid-at-bat. These kinds of at-bats are coming to Wrigley Field for the next five years. And while we can't be certain what Bregman will age into—we can't foresee injuries, and cannot predict the future—what I can say with confidence is that that kind of approach ages like fine wine. You don't forget how to plan or stay within your game just because you get a little older. Maybe you're not convinced about his bat tilt, or having Matt Shaw play as a utility man; that's okay. But watching the man work brought me a new appreciation for what he does well. Bregman never flinched and never got worried that he was down two strikes. He made up for watching a hittable pitch. He simply outworked Rasmussen in that moment, until the Rays' hurler finally made the final mistake. The more I watch how Bregman works, the more I get excited that the Cubs will have this as a main feature of their lineup from 2026 and beyond. Seeing is believing. What do you think of Bregman's plate approach? Where would you hit in him in the lineup? Sound off in the comments below; let's talk all things Alex Bregman. View the full article

For the second time in three years, the Twins appear poised to take a player all the way through the arbitration process. Minnesota and Joe Ryan were unable to bridge a relatively small gap before the exchange of figures last Thursday, with the club submitting a $5.85 million salary and Ryan countering at $6.35 million. If neither side changes course, an arbitration panel will choose one of those two numbers, and that decision will determine Ryan’s pay for the 2026 season. While teams and players are technically allowed to keep negotiating after figures are exchanged, the Twins have historically treated that deadline as a firm stopping point for one-year deals. That appears to be the case again here, meaning the next step is a hearing—unless a multiyear agreement unexpectedly materializes. Club policy does allow for longer-term contracts after the deadline, though there has been no indication that discussions are trending in that direction. From a performance standpoint, Ryan’s case is straightforward. The 29-year-old just completed the best season of his major-league career, finishing with a 3.42 ERA while striking out 194 hitters across 171 innings. He made his first All-Star team and made 30 starts for the first time, firmly establishing himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm. That production came amid frequent trade speculation at last year’s trade deadline, which continued into the winter, though the front office has repeatedly said it does not intend to move core players right now. This is only Ryan’s second trip through arbitration eligibility. A year ago, he and the Twins avoided a hearing by agreeing to a one-year, $3-million contract, his first significant payday after never earning more than $780,000 in a season. Even at the higher of the two arbitration figures this time around, Ryan would land right around $6 million for 2026, a sizable raise but a modest payday for a pitcher of his caliber. Unless he is traded or signs an extension, Ryan will be arbitration-eligible again in 2027. He's not scheduled to reach free agency until after that season. In the short term, that gives the Twins control. In the longer view, it emphasizes the importance of how this relationship is managed now. It is impossible to ignore the optics. The difference between the two sides is $500,000, a relatively small sum in today’s game. Ryan is widely regarded as one of the better starters in the league, and metrics back that up. FanGraphs estimates that he has generated more than $90 million in on-field value in his career, while earning just over $7 million. That gap speaks to how arbitration and team control suppress salaries, but when a team chooses to fight over such a narrow margin, it invites criticism, too. The Twins do have precedent on which to stand. They have gone to hearings in the past (most notably with Kyle Gibson late in his tenure), in part to give the front office experience with the process. Minnesota’s last hearing was with Nick Gordon in 2024. Gordon filed for $1.25 million, and the Twins offered $900,000. Minnesota won, and Gordon was denied entry into the seven-figure salary club. With changes in leadership over the last year, it is fair to wonder if that institutional mindset still plays a role, even if there is no clear indication that Ryan’s case is being used as a training exercise. There is also the human element. Ryan was candid following last year’s trade deadline sell-off, acknowledging that the stretch run was mentally challenging once postseason hopes disappeared. Illness affected several of his starts, and after one outing in Toronto, he admitted that summoning motivation was sometimes difficult. “I felt like I was in shock for a couple of weeks after that, and then it kind of settled in,” Ryan said. “[My future] is so far out of my control. But it seems like the team is making good decisions from the front office and coaching staff down, to give ourselves a chance to win a couple more ballgames. … I think the team’s going to be in a really good spot going forward." That lack of control remains. If the Twins fall out of contention in 2026, Ryan could once again find himself in the thick of trade discussions, either during the season or next winter. Conversely, if Minnesota hopes to extend him or keep him beyond his remaining years of control, the way this arbitration case plays out could matter. Hearings are adversarial by design, requiring the club to argue why a player does not deserve more. Even when the disparity between bids by the parties involved is modest, that process can linger. Adding another wrinkle is a note from The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman. He shared on social media that a team source said that Ryan is not expected to make an appearance at TwinsFest. Ryan was on the preliminary list of players who were expected to attend, but his name has been removed without an explanation. For now, what comes next is straightforward. Unless there is a late pivot, the Twins and Ryan will present their cases to an arbitration panel, and one number will win. What that decision means for the relationship moving forward, and whether a dispute over $500,000 ends up costing the Twins something far more valuable down the road, remains uncertain. Should the Twins have agreed to Ryan’s salary? What’s the long-term plan with Ryan and the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The New York Yankees wanted to use outfield prospect Dillon Lewis as the centerpiece of a trade to bolster their starting rotation, but the Brewers were never going to accede to a deal focused on Lewis in exchange for Freddy Peralta. Thus, New York circled back to the Miami Marlins Tuesday, after missing out on Edward Cabrera with a bid that had also included Lewis. This time, they got a deal done, packaging Lewis and three other prospects to acquire left-handed hurler Ryan Weathers from the Fish. Lewis held some appeal for the Brewers, but the Yankees' efforts to pump his value this winter worked better on some other teams than they did on the Milwaukee front office. The Crew also liked Brendan Jones, a speedy outfielder who served as a secondary piece in the deal and will join Miami's farm system, instead. Thus, for the Yankees to land Peralta now, the two sides would have to start almost from scratch. We can't dismiss the possibility that the Yankees will still make a play for Peralta, but it's now more remote. In theory, New York has more depth in their rotation now, but most of their penciled-in starters either will begin the season on the injured list or seem like safe bets to land there eventually. Weathers is under team control for three more seasons, which matches the term for which they control Luis Gil—the hurler the Brewers wanted as the big-league anchor in a deal for Peralta. Brian Cashman could try to build a new, higher-echelon prospect package to entice the Brewers, swapping Gil for Peralta at the cost of more farm system punch but backfilling Gil's spot with the equally talented and equally fragile Weathers. On balance, though, that's unlikely. The Yankees are at least the third team to take an active interest in Peralta this winter, only to end up solving their rotation problems with different deals. The Orioles could still be in the market for a free-agent starter, but they spent the capital they might have included in a Peralta deal in acquiring Shane Baz from the Rays, instead. The Astros not only signed Tatsuya Imai to replace the departing Framber Valdez, but traded for Mike Burrows of the Pirates. Weathers, Baz and Burrows all have multiple years of club control remaining, which made the teams acquiring them more comfortable sending significant prospect capital the other way in trades. The Cubs were certainly never going to trade for Peralta, given the competitive tension between those two teams right now, but they, too, demonstrated their preference for a longer-term solution by trading for Cabrera. Even the Red Sox, who surrendered a modest return for Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, also traded the tantalizing Jhostynxon García to the Pirates for more team control over Johan Oviedo. Suitors remain. The Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres all need rotation help if they want to contend for playoff berths in the increasingly competitive National League, and each has at least checked in with Milwaukee this offseason about Peralta. It's not clear what the team from the northwest suburbs of Atlanta could offer for Peralta—their farm system is weak—but they have some measure of interest. The Mets and Dodgers boast two of the game's deepest farm systems. The Queensmen desperately need a starter to anchor a shaky rotation, while Los Angeles is shopping for capstones for a roster hunting a threepeat. None of those six teams make as neat a fit for Peralta as others have seemed to, at various points this offseason. As has been true all along, the Brewers themselves feel little pressure to move him. The pending disruption of their local broadcast distribution (and, thus, revenue therefrom) could ratchet that pressure up slightly, but it's more likely the Brewers will simply eschew hoped-for secondary spending, if needed, than that they'll take a reduced return just to shed an $8-million obligation for 2026. With each of the trades mentioned above, the chances that the team gets the kind of offer they'll demand have dwindled. Eventually, a team will have to increase its bid, or the team will hold onto its All-Star righty. Perhaps the more intriguing notion is of the Brewers themselves putting a controllable starter in play. If the robust offers that might inspire them to trade Peralta are being reserved for pitchers who will be around through at least 2028, could Milwaukee get the juicy prospect recharge they're looking for by trading Aaron Ashby or Robert Gasser? The markets for those pitchers might not be as fevered, but they would include more teams. Every club tries to accumulate both talent and club control. Peralta only offers one of those two things. While he's more talented and more accomplished than Baz, Burrows, Cabrera, Oviedo and Weathers, he's also a rental. So far, the Brewers have insisted that if a team is to nab him, they need to pay controllable pitcher prices, to reflect both Peralta's raw on-field value and the utility of his below-market $8-million salary. Late in the winter, small-market teams get their chance to shine. The Brewers won't tiptoe silently all the way to spring training. They're unlikely to make a major financial outlay, but they will continue refining the roster. Trading Peralta could still be part of that, but the lineup of likely partners in a trade has changed as the offseason has unfolded. Each team (effectively) eliminated from consideration clarifies the market, but the Brewers hold the trump card: They can choose whether or not to transact even on the highest offer they get, so they control the market, even with fewer teams whom they can use to apply leverage to the others. View the full article

The back end of the Boston Red Sox's bullpen is a strength anchored by right-hander Garrett Whitlock and left-hander Aroldis Chapman. Bridging the game to them with a lead, on the other hand, remains a question mark in mid-January. The Red Sox have a smattering of quality middle relievers, but not a whole lot of certainty in durability and performance. Last season, that role primarily fell to Justin Wilson and Greg Weissert. However, neither was particularly dominant -- Wilson had a 3.66 ERA in the seventh inning, Weissert a 5.94. Of the 90 relievers to get at least 45 outs in the seventh inning, those ERAs ranked tied for 49th and 80th, respectively. And while both pitchers had good 2025 seasons overall, it wasn't good enough often enough. So, how can the Red Sox address that area of the roster in 2026? Here are several internal options. 1. RHP Justin Slaten Slaten dealt with injuries and some inconsistencies on the mound in 2025. But just last winter, there was real dialogue among the Red Sox contingent that the right-hander had closer potential. Obviously, Chapman nips the opportunity to close in the bud, but the third-year reliever has the chance to be a weapon in the middle-to-late innings. With a fastball that rides into the high-90s, along with high whiff and chase rates, the framework is there for him to become one of the elite set-up guys in the game. In 2025, Slaten avoided hard contact and was tremendous at getting to two strikes. The last step for him, beyond simply staying healthy, is putting hitters away. Last year, he struck out just 25 in 34 innings. His 6.62 K/9 ranked 220th out of 244 relievers with at least 30 innings. But talent-wise, Slaten is right up there with others set-up men around the league. It's just about realizing that potential at this point; he should be the leading candidate for the seventh inning. 2. RHP Kutter Crawford Perhaps it's unfair to the right-hander to lump him here, but after a strong first half in 2024, he fell off a cliff before missing all of 2025. A lot's changed since he last pitched in an MLB game. The Red Sox have added Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Patrick Sandoval. That's without mentioning the young guys who have and have not debuted. Crawford could very well win a starting rotation spot in camp, but perhaps his calling is high-leverage relief. Even as good as he was in the first half of 2024, there were signs he wasn't as dominant as he results suggested. His secondaries improved, but his fastball deteriorated from 2023 production. As a reliever, Crawford is a career 3.35 ERA arm with a strikeout rate over 25 percent. While not elite, it's a dramatic improvement on his career 4.69 ERA as a starter. With the collection of arms vying for the rotation, he's probably the likeliest to move to the bullpen. With a starter's arsenal and perhaps an uptick in fastball velocity, Crawford has a chance to really thrive in that role. 3. LHP Patrick Sandoval Similar to Crawford, a lot's changed since the Red Sox signed Sandoval. There's been a lot of discourse about him as a trade chip, but I don't buy that the Red Sox won't give him a shot to earn his keep in Boston. Once a promising starter for the Angels, it's always felt there's more than meets the eye with the southpaw. However, it's been three seasons since he flashed a 2.91 ERA for them in 27 starts. He wouldn't be a typical mid-leverage reliever, as his changeup is his money pitch. But we've seen guys like Tommy Kahnle thrive in high leverage without an imposing fastball. Now, is he better served as a long reliever -- similar to Sean Newcomb in 2025 -- with Jovani Morán getting the first crack as a high-leverage lefty? Maybe. But there's a reason so many relievers thrive after toying with starting for a while. 4. LHP Payton Tolle On one hand, letting Tolle develop his secondaries in Triple-A makes sense for the long-term outlook of him and the team. On the other hand, there are few fastballs more lethal than the rookie's. There's precedent for the Red Sox having top pitching prospects break into the league as relievers. They did it with Tanner Houck in 2021 and Crawford between 2022 and 2023. So, there's also proof of concept; this doesn't stunt growth into the rotation. Houck was an All-Star in 2024, with Crawford also a top-20 starter in the first half that season. Tolle has the stuff to dominate out of a big-league bullpen right now. For a team posturing as a contender in 2026, that option may be more enticing than signing a veteran like Danny Coulombe or bringing back Wilson. The rookie out of TCU made five relief appearances, including the postseason, with an ERA of 2.84. He was sitting in the high-90s on his heater, even hitting triple digits with frequency. That kind of asset is tough to pass on, but they've got to do what they think is best for his development as well. 5. RHP Greg Weissert Weissert struggled in the seventh inning last year, but he's one of the more deceptive arms in the Red Sox's bullpen. Overall, the right-hander had a 2.82 ERA in 67 innings. Whenever he was needed, he was available. Perhaps at times too available, especially with inherited runners, but he's built a track record of availability. It'd do him some good to figure out how to generate more strikeouts, but he's about as dependable as they come when given a clean frame. He's the most practiced in that role; perhaps he ends up getting first dibs for set-up duty in 2026. View the full article

Another week, another arm on the move. In a special live edition of Fish Unfiltered, Miami Marlins insider Craig Mish joins Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout to discuss all angles of Tuesday's Ryan Weathers trade to the New York Yankees, plus the club's other recent transactions and remaining offseason to-do list. You can find Fish On First LIVE on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes The Offishial Show, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. In exchange for Weathers, the Marlins received Yankees prospects Dillon Lewis, Brendan Jones, Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus. Lewis and Matheus were previously involved when these teams negotiated a potential Edward Cabrera deal earlier this month, according to Mish. Cabrera ultimately went to the Chicago Cubs instead. Only a month away from the first full-squad workout of spring training, Mish believes that the Marlins' offseason activity is almost complete. "I still think that they may add a piece or two, very specifically to the bullpen...But I think you can start to paint a picture of the 26 guys who you'll see on Opening Day." Follow Craig (@CraigMish), Isaac (@IsaacAzout), Kevin (@kevin_barral) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View the full article

What's the rush? Craig Mish joins Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout on Fish Unfiltered to discuss the thought process behind trading Ryan Weathers coming off an injury-shortened season. View the full article

On Tuesday morning, reports circulated that the Royals would be moving the fences in at Kauffman Stadium to generate more home runs and, thus, more offense. Jeff Passan was the first to break news on the report. Later in the morning, the Kansas City Royals confirmed the report and held a press conference in the afternoon featuring GM JJ Picollo and Vice President of Research and Development Dr. Daniel Mack. A replay of the press conference is available on the Kansas City Royals' YouTube channel, embedded below. The Royals' decision is a bit of a surprise, especially since owner John Sherman has said the Royals will move out of Kauffman Stadium when its lease expires in 2031. Furthermore, Kauffman actually profiles as a hitter's park based on Statcast Park Factors. The 101 Park Factor over the past three years is the sixth-highest in baseball, according to Baseball Savant. That said, Kauffman has been a dead zone for home runs, especially recently. The 85 Home Run factor is tied for the third-lowest mark in baseball from 2023 to 2025 (they are tied with Cleveland's Progressive Field). Only Pittsburgh's PNC Park (76) and San Francisco's Oracle Park (82) have a lower HR factor than Kauffman Stadium. However, the Royals' home park is quite spacious, which has led to higher Double (113) and Triple (183) factors, both Top-5 marks in the league. That explains the high overall Park Factor since 2023. Hence, let's see the exact changes to Kauffman, which hitters will benefit the most, and what drawbacks could come with the new dimensions? Creating a More Neutral (Not "Hitter Friendly") Ballpark is the Goal Anne Rogers, the Royals beat writer for MLB.com, went into the changes to the dimensions in her latest article. She talked about the walls being moved in and lowered in height, as illustrated in the segment below. As illustrated in her piece, the Royals will have better opportunities to hit home runs, which had dogged Royals hitters for years. The Royals actually made similar changes to Kauffman's dimensions in the 90s, moving the fences in by 10 feet. However, in 2004, the Kansas City Royals ownership decided to move it back to its original dimensions, where it's been Death Valley for home runs since. Before 2019, no Royals hitter had hit more than 40 home runs in a single season (two have hit that 40+ mark: Jorge Soler and Salvador Perez, who both hit 48 in 2019 and 2021). In addition to encouraging more runs, the new dimensions will also add additional seating. Based on the changes, Kauffman will gain 230 additional seats, providing an economic benefit to ownership. In Picollo and Mack's press conference, they both remarked that the park will remain spacious, with outfield defense prioritized. Picollo mentioned that Kyle Isbel and his glove would still be immensely valuable in center field, thus showing that the Royals won't be changing their identity anytime soon. The Royals GM said the goal of this change was not to create an "offensive" ballpark, but to make it more neutral for Royals hitters. Mack mentioned that a lot of time and research went into confirming these changes and determining whether they would be in the Royals' best interests. That included research not just into the effect of the walls, both in terms of height and distance, but also how the weather would impact the new dimensions of Kauffman. Much like Picollo echoed, Mack confirmed that they wanted to change the dimensions to make things fairer for hitters, not to punish pitchers. The Royals understand that deeper dimensions have been beneficial to pitchers, especially those who can induce weak or moderately hit fly balls. They didn't want the Royals' pitchers to lose that advantage or ability due to these new ballpark changes. Mack's "not having to play a specific way" comment is interesting. The Royals led the league in Infield Fly Ball percentage last year with an 11.9% mark. Interestingly, the data doesn't show that the Royals as a team hit more "pop-ups" at Kauffman Stadium compared to on the road. Here are their home/road splits for IFFB% and HR/FB%. Home: 9.4% IFFB% (16th); 8.0% HR/FB% (29th) Away: 14.2% IFFB% (1st); 9.5% HR/FB% (29th) The Royals had a 4.8% higher IFFB% on the road than at home and sported a 1.5% lower HR/FB rate at Kauffman. That big spike in IFFB% could signify that the Royals were trying to hit more flyballs and thus, home runs, away from the K, but that approach was counterintuitive. The Royals are hoping that focusing on the same approach at home and away will narrow the gap in home/away IFFB%, leading not only to better HR/FB% production but also to more runs overall (they ranked 26th in runs scored last year). Which Hitters Will Benefit the Most? As expected with these dimension changes, Royals fans and the fantasy baseball community came out in full force with their theories of which Royals hitters will benefit the most in 2026. Eric Cross of Rotoballer pointed out the core four Kansas City hitters: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. In his tweet, he shared their spray charts and implied that they could be due for some positive regression in home runs with the ballpark changes. When looking at the spray chart last year and fitting into next year's dimensions, things look optimistic for the Royals' four primary hitters. It's easy to see that Witt, Pasquantino, Perez, and Garcia could get an extra five to seven home runs with a similar spray chart next season, at a minimum. Thus, it isn't out of the question to think that Garcia could hit 20+ HRs, Witt collect 30+ HRs, and Perez and Pasquantino touch the 40-HR mark. That kind of 20 to 30-HR increase from their four most important hitters will have a tremendous boost on the Royals' offense, which not only struggled with home runs last year (they ranked 26th) but run consistency. Furthermore, the new dimensions could also channel the power of budding hitters like Jac Caglianone. Caglianone struggled as a rookie last season. The former Florida Gator and 2024 Royals first-round pick posted a 46 wRC+ and hit seven home runs in 232 plate appearances. However, when looking at his spray chart modified to Target Field (which mirrors the new Kauffman Stadium changes), he would have hit double-digit home runs, which would have helped his overall production a season ago. A home park that is friendlier to Caglianone could help him build confidence and be that much-needed 20+ HR hitter that the Royals need in the middle of the lineup. After all, his .318 xwOBA was much better than his .239 actual wOBA, which means that there is potential for positive regression for Caglianone in 2026, even without the changes to Kauffman Stadium. However, with the new ballpark dimensions, the soon-to-be 23-year-old outfielder could surpass his 18-HR Steamer projection by a considerable margin. It's one thing for Witt, Perez, Pasquantino, and Garcia to see a boost in their home run numbers. They have proven to be productive hitters in the past, even if the home runs haven't been consistent. That said, seeing a breakout from Caglianone or someone else due to the new dimensions is a benefit more than worth the price of the ballpark changes. How Will This Affect the Pitching Staff? The Royals' pitching staff was an interesting one in terms of their batted-ball profile. They allowed the sixth-lowest HR/FB% in baseball with a 10.7% mark, and they ranked 17th in FB% allowed with a 38.3% mark. A key to their success was their ability to induce infield fly balls, as they ranked 9th with a 10.5% IFFB%. When looking at the Royals pitchers individually, the table below shows how they fared in terms of batted-ball profile, organized by IFFB%. When it comes to which pitchers to worry about with the new dimensions, the ones with high FB% and IFFB% rates are worth watching. Carlos Estevez (15.5% IFFB%), Michael Wacha (14%), Cole Ragans (12.3%), and Kris Bubic (12.3%) are the ones most likely to be affected by the fences being moved in. Their flyballs could be home runs with the new dimensions. For context, let's look at the spray chart for Estevez, with it modified to Target Field dimensions (much like Caglianone). Estevez not only had the highest IFFB% of returning pitchers, but also the highest flyball percentage at 51.6%. And yet, his HR/FB rate was only 5.2%, the fourth-lowest of Royals pitchers with 10 or more IP last year. With the new dimensions, he could be due for a sharp regression. That explains why Kansas City has been aggressive in terms of adding relievers who can generate chase, whiffs, and strikeouts like Alex Lange, Nick Mears, and Matt Strahm. Pitchers who induce higher groundball rates could be more protected from the new ballpark dimensions in 2026 and beyond. That includes Stephen Kolek (53.5%), Lucas Erceg (52.8%), Luinder Avila (50%), and even Bubic (47.2%). I think those three pitchers could be due for strong seasons, especially Erceg, who plateaued a bit in 2025 after a sensational 2024 debut with the Royals. Thus, Royals fans should feel more confident in pitchers with this groundball-inducing profile, as well as those who can generate whiffs and strikeouts. Having those three qualities will be more important than ever with the new dimensions, even if the K will still be slightly pitcher-friendly. If the Royals acquire any more relievers this offseason, it shouldn't be surprising if they profile well in those three areas mentioned above. View the full article

According to a report from ESPN, the Toronto Blue Jays have made "a long-term offer" to Kyle Tucker, the offseason's top free agent. It's no secret that the Blue Jays are interested in Tucker, but this is the first indication that they have made him a formal offer. While no deal is imminent, and no further details have been made available, it's an exciting development nonetheless. That the Jays made an offer demonstrates the front office is still actively seeking upgrades, and ownership is willing to continue increasing payroll. Of course, Toronto isn't alone in pursuing Tucker. ESPN's Jesse Rogers and FanSided's Robert Murray both reported that the New York Mets offered Tucker a short-term deal "believed to be worth $50 million per season." The Mets and Blue Jays currently seem to be the frontrunners for Tucker's services. Featured image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images. View the full article