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When the San Diego Padres signed Kyle Hart upon his return from the KBO ahead of 2025, it was a move that wasn’t met with a particular degree of fanfare. The former Boston Red Sox draftee had only appeared in 11 big league innings in the years since his 2016 selection, and the results were relatively uninspiring across his minor-league journey. Nevertheless, the team needed depth on the bump and it arrived in the form of Hart. It’s that very scenario that led to him being back in America’s Finest City ahead of 2026. Hart was able to earn a rotation spot out of camp last year. Save for a six-innings-no-runs-allowed performance against Colorado in April, however, he struggled to maintain his grip on such a role. Five of Hart’s six starts came before the end of the season’s first month, and he went on to make just 20 appearances overall. The results therein were not terrific. He finished with a 5.86 ERA and 5.18 FIP in a year that was indicative of negative value (-0.2 fWAR). He struggled to prevent home runs, with a 13.0 percent rate of flyballs that went over the outfield wall, while neither his strikeout or walk numbers – 20.7 and 7.3 percent, respectively – compensated for that effectively. Even amid such struggles, though, Hart earned a second contract in San Diego. He agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. The Padres knew they’d need depth, and Hart will provide it. How much time he actually logs at the top level, however, remains unclear. Kyle Hart’s Stuff Without much velocity of which to speak, Hart is a sweeper-driven pitcher; he threw it 33 percent of the time last season. The pitch was thrown far more to left-handed hitters (43 percent) than righties (29 percent), though. For the latter handedness, he incorporated a changeup at 20 percent of the time (a pitch he threw just a handful of times against lefties). There’s a sinker in the mix as well, with an even 22 percent being thrown to hitters standing in either box. The sweeper and sinker each have their benefits. The sweeper drew whiffs nearly 29 percent of the time last year, and both pitches pinned down opponents’ slugging to under .300. It’s when he begins to graduate outside of his two primary pitches that things start to become problematic. His change, in particular, was touched for a .625 slugging percentage in 2025. Part of Hart’s struggle is that, regardless of pitch, he works high: There’s decent horizontal movement on his two primary pitches. He gets 14.1 inches of horizontal break to his glove side with the sweeper and 16.7 inches of run to his arm side with the sinker. There’s very little vertical drop to speak of across the board, though, which represents a problem for a pitcher who doesn’t work with much velocity. Only his minimally used splitter garners anything in terms of vertical drop. In terms of run value, Hart does get positive results out of each of the sweeper (5) and sinker (2). There’s enough swing-and-miss with the former and effective groundball tendencies wrought by the latter to allow him to work within a framework that can find some success. The issue is when he starts to move outside of his comfort zone with the change and the rest of the crew. None of his other pitches bear a positive run value, with the changeup sitting at -4 on its own. Kyle Hart’s Arsenal There’s an argument to be made that Hart should shift his focus toward more of a two-pitch situation. The results are evident in the sweeper and sinker being effective pitches for him, somewhat courtesy of a lower arm angle. There’s a location factor that at least mildly explains his success as well. Not that Hart’s command is elite, but he’s at least able to utilize those pitches to seek the results that each pitch should, theoretically, see. Such is not the case with the others in his mix. With the changeup, there is an intriguing movement profile, but the results haven’t been remotely steady enough to consider it a factor quite yet. Such an argument exists in a world where Hart ends up as more of a one-inning reliever than even as a long man, let alone a starter. It’s very difficult to find success in volume with only two effective pitches. Unless we see some evolution in the arsenal, though, that may very well be the role for which he’s best-suited. What Should Kyle Hart’s Role Be In 2026? Even with a Padres rotation that sits as shallow as this group ahead of the upcoming season, it’d be really difficult to justify a rotation spot out of the gate for Kyle Hart. You’d even be hard-pressed to find an argument that he’s destined for the bullpen, considering where the rest of the group stands. The relief corps is where the Padres actually have some depth with which to work. Given that, it would appear that Hart’s best shot at regular work within the organization will, once again, come with El Paso. It would at least give him an opportunity to hone the arsenal and discover some command of the secondaries. If he can do that, then there is a path toward contributions at the top level as a backend starter. In the meantime, however, the floor remains simply too low to justify a spot in either the rotation or the bullpen, regardless of how thin the former looks. View the full article

Which Royals non-roster invitees could make break out or return to a previous form? In this video, we discuss the upside and contributions of Blake Mitchell, former Royal Jose Cuas, Brandon Drury (who hit over 20 home runs in the big leagues just a couple of years ago), and Eli Morgan. If you enjoy breakdowns like this, make sure to subscribe to Royals Keep on YouTube! View the full article

Which Royals non-roster invitees could make break out or return to a previous form? In this video, we discuss the upside and contributions of Blake Mitchell, former Royal Jose Cuas, Brandon Drury (who hit over 20 home runs in the big leagues just a couple of years ago), and Eli Morgan. If you enjoy breakdowns like this, make sure to subscribe to Royals Keep on YouTube! View the full article

FORT MYERS—There’s a festivity to the day that pitchers and catchers report. It’s not just empty romanticism. The vast majority of the people who have dedicated their lives’ labor to baseball—players, coaches, staff, and yes, even beat writers—love the game, and its return lifts spirits. But it’s also an opportunity to set a tone. The tone new Twins manager Derek Shelton wanted to set was one of intentionality—specifically, intentionally doing the little things, because he’s seen them matter in the biggest moments. He demonstrated that to his players. “Shelton mainly focused on two plays that happened in the playoffs this past year: [pitching defensive plays] that didn’t get done,” pitcher Bailey Ober said when asked about Shelton’s message to the pitchers. “Basically said this can decide games. Here's two examples, on the highest stakes. We’re going to treat Day One and the days going forward like that’s what’s on the line when we’re out there getting outs and fielding our position.” If that sounds old-school, well, that was certainly part of the inspiration. “I had a very strong conversation with a guy whose number is retired at my press conference," said Shelton when asked why he chose to emphasize it on the first day. "It really impacted me. I’m talking about TK [former Twins manager Tom Kelly]. Making sure it was highlighted from the first meeting, the first conversation, the first practice—yeah, I think that kind of took me over the edge. Honestly, I’d be crazy not to take advice that was passionate and heartfelt from someone who loves the Twins, so I kind of took it to heart.” Shelton doesn’t come across as a fire-and-brimstone type. He’s more friendly uncle than drill sergeant. But he also has enough experience to know that over these next few weeks, he has a chance that may not come again: to establish a culture that can lead to success. “I think overall the way we want our culture to be set up—the intentionality—which goes back to the point of how we go about our work,” Shelton said. It’s clear he, at least, is being intentional about this opportunity and his work. New Bullpen Pieces All season long—really, since last season's trade deadline—fans have wondered what the Twins would do to supplement their bullpen. Over the last two days, the Twins have added two experienced veterans to their bullpen picture. On Wednesday, they signed Liam Hendriks, a former All-Star closer coming back from elbow issues, to a minor-league contract. He should arrive in a couple of days, and the Twins say he’s healthy and ready to go. “Everything’s been positive,” Shelton said. “He’s healthy, and he’s in a situation where he’s coming into camp to compete.” Hendriks is also part of Australia’s World Baseball Classic team. They also made a trade Thursday for veteran left-handed reliever Anthony Banda. He likely slots in as the second left-hander in the Twins bullpen, behind Taylor Rogers but ahead of Kody Funderburk. To make room for Banda, the Twins designated Jackson Kowar for assignment. Kowar spoke Thursday morning about how much he liked the situation in camp, especially because his spring-training locker sat next to Ober’s, a friend dating back to high school. Now, the Twins hope he’ll clear waivers and remain in the organization, giving them a chance to see whether a second year removed from Tommy John surgery helps him rediscover the feel for his changeup. Mick Abel’s Control Pitcher Mick Abel, whom the Twins acquired at last year’s trade deadline as part of the Jhoan Duran deal, reestablished himself as a prospect by tackling his biggest issue: command. In 2024, his walk rate was an ugly 5.2 BB/9. Last year, he cut that to 3.7—still a bit high, but playable with his electric stuff. As a result, his ERA dropped from 4.13 to 2.20 over the same span. So what adjustments did he make? Abel insists it was more about the adjustments he didn’t make. “I think a lot of it was confidence-based,” he said. “They just kind of let me loose, and they’re like, ‘Hey, do whatever you need to do. We’re not going to do anything mechanical. We’re not going to do anything with pitches.’ And being able to go through a full offseason of work and not having to think about where my arm is at in my arm motion—I’m like, ‘All right, screw that.’ That’s very gracious. Let me do that, and it’s how it should be.” His plan this year is similar. If he can consistently pitch like he did late last season, including a final start in which he threw six scoreless innings and struck out nine against those same Phillies. there’s at least one rotation spot in camp that is legitimately up for grabs. If You're Here.... If you're lucky and/or smart enough to be attending spring training, one of the Twins' better events is coming up on Monday. On President's Day every year, the Twins open up Hammond Stadium for fans the same day that the hitters show up for spring training. There is a health fair (i.e a chance to get a lot of swag), but it's also a chance to watch the team up close. Kids can play in the outfield in the afternoon. This year, the healthcare fair has a new offering: free EKGs for kids, because Florida now requires them for kids playing athletics. Of course, if you have read Twins Daily's Ultimate Spring Traiing Guide, you already know all about this, as well as the best time to visit, how to interact with the players, and the best breweries in town. Hope to see you here soon. View the full article

After an offseason of much-criticized inactivity, the Twins have spent the last couple weeks making a few more moves. A common thread in the transactions? They all used to play here. Taylor Rogers, Gio Urshela, and Liam Hendriks have all signed deals with the Twins recently. And it appears that might continue. “Basically, we have Minnesota’s Baseball Reference page pulled up, and we’re going season by season to check in on everyone who doesn’t have a current team,” said a front office source with knowledge of the team’s internet history. “We just got to 2018. You wouldn’t happen to have a forwarding address for Robbie Grossman, would you?” Sources say the team hopes to both fill roster gaps and curate some good feelings with an alienated fan base. “There’s someone out there who caught a Darin Mastroianni foul ball, and it was the best moment of his young life,” said a source in the season ticket office. “Now he’s older, he has disposable income, and maybe wants to go out to the yard to see if Darin still has a little gas left in the ol’ tank.” Mastroianni, 40, last played in the majors in 2016. Twins Daily was unable to confirm his current career, but Fangraphs projects him to be either in real estate, coaching, or liquor distribution. While adding position players is nice, the focus for both the team and the fanbase remains the bullpen. “Take a look at the 2013 bullpen,” said the latter source. “Caleb Thielbar is still playing. Ryan Pressly just hung it up. Michael Tonkin pitched for us last year! Glen Perkins works here, I bet he’s got all those guys’ numbers. Heck, I bet ol’ Glen could throw that fastball by a bunch of those young pups.” A spokesperson for Perkins says everything is sore all the time and that Stu should leave him out of his fun comedy bits. View the full article

Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reported to camp on Thursday, so spring training is officially on. Position players will trickle in over the weekend leading up to the first full-squad workout next Monday. Exhibition action kicks off with a contest against the Gophers on Friday, February 20th, followed by the first Grapefruit League game against Boston the following day. Coming off a 92-loss season, and a chaotic winter that saw more change off the field than on, expectations are fairly low but uncertainty is running high. The Twins have much to figure out and many questions to answer in the six weeks leading up to Opening Day in Baltimore on March 26th. Key Position Battles Backup SS: Brooks Lee has not proven himself in terms of ability or durability, making this a critical piece of depth. The main contenders are Ryan Kreidler, Tristan Gray and Orlando Arcia, with the latter needing to earn a spot on the 40-man roster. 4th and 5th SP: The three proven veterans — Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober — are locked into the top spots, leaving the bottom of the rotation open for competition. Presumably Simeon Woods Richardson and Taj Bradley are currently stopping the chart, since they've got significantly more experience than the rest of the pack, but guys like Zebby Matthews, David Festa and Mick Abel could shake things up with strong, healthy showings. 4th OF: As things currently stand, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner appear to be the starting corner outfielders, at least against right-handers. Byron Buxton will of course be in center. The Twins need a player who can back up all three outfield spots, and might have room for only one between Austin Martin, Alan Roden and James Outman. 6th, 7th, 8th RP: The following bullpen spots are more or less claimed, pending health: Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Eric Orze, Anthony Blanda. These are all relatively proven MLB relievers. That leaves three spots up for grabs among a group that includes incumbents Kody Funderburk and Travis Adams, along with numerous NRIs and starters with conversion potential. It's going to be a free-for-all, but situational usage in spring games should give strong indication of who the team favors. Health Situations to Monitor Bailey Ober: His mechanics were a mess last year, which Ober admits was due in part to nagging injury issues. He spent the offseason trying to get right, but his velocity and overall quality of stuff in camp will tell the story. David Festa: His 2025 season ended with a scary diagnosis of thoracic outlet syndrome, but Festa avoided surgery and supposedly went through a fairly normal offseason. He's a really important part of their pitching plans, whether as starter or reliever, so hopefully the righty is able to quickly put last year's shoulder problems behind him. Cory Lewis: He's in camp as a non-roster invite and looking to put himself on the MLB relief radar, but Lewis and his intriguing knuckleball will be slowed out of the gate by a "moderate subscap" (shoulder) issue, keeping him down for at least the first two weeks. Matt Canterino: Recovering from shoulder surgery, Canterino is not expected to pitch this spring, but he's still in camp, soaking everything in. It's been a hell of a road for the right-hander, now 28 with just 85 professional innings thrown, but he's worth dreaming on because the raw stuff is amazing. Royce Lewis: No specific injury concerns, but it seems silly not to list Lewis as a health situation to monitor. Last year he suffered a hamstring injury in spring training that cost him the first month, adding to a string of misfortune that finally seemed to let up in the second half last year. How will Lewis look physically coming off an offseason spent building on his healthy finish? Top Twins Storylines to Follow in Camp Building a bullpen from scratch Sorting out the bullpen makeup and hierarchy feels like easily the most pressing challenge ahead of Derek Shelton and Co. this spring. They've got a lot of high-leverage gaps to fill and a lot of unknowns vying for opportunities. Exhibition games in March aren't always the best basis for informing important roster decisions, but that's the task at hand. Keep a close eye on who's getting put into games and when. WBC departures create veteran leadership void The Twins opted to build around their trio of veteran All-Star talents rather than trading one or more and committing to a full-on rebuild. They see value in staying relatively competitive, as well as keeping these respected voices in the clubhouse to guide a bunch of developing players. But for much of this spring camp, all three of Ryan, Lopez and Buxton will be away, representing their countries in the World Baseball Classic. That could create some tricky dynamics as Shelton looks to establish a new clubhouse culture, but the flip side is that there will be more innings and at-bats available for other auditioning players. "The one good thing about that this spring is because of the WBC, and we’re losing three starters to the WBC, we’re going to be able to evaluate guys in more meaningful innings. And what I mean by that is, the challenge with evaluating pitchers, especially starting pitchers, in the spring is who they face. Because all of a sudden they end up piggybacking or pitching innings 4-6 and then they get guys that may be in Double-A or Triple-A because Major League players have rotated out. This spring we’re going to have the ability to evaluate because three of our top guys are pitching for their country." - Derek Shelton to media including Twins Daily on Thursday Eyes on the shortstop position There's a reason I listed backup shortstop atop the list of key position battles above. The Twins have much to figure out at this all-important spot in the post-Carlos Correa era. FanGraphs has Minnesota ranked dead last in projected WAR at SS. We've got to see something from Lee this spring, or at the very least he needs to stay healthy and keep the back problems at bay. The notion of Tristan Gray or Ryan Kreidler as Opening Day starting shortstop is scarily plausible. Will Kaelen Culpepper make a statement and accelerate his timeline? Prospects showcase what they've got On that note, the biggest reason to feel optimistic and hopeful about the Twins — even if not in the short term — is the wave of talented, highly-regarded prospects who are on the doorstep of the major leagues. Many of them will be seeing plentiful action in Twins camp, including Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Connor Prielipp and Gabriel Gonzalez. Up-and-comers like these offer the most compelling reason to tune into some of Minnesota's 25 spring games available to stream. It's been a long, tumultuous offseason and I find myself feeling as low on the outlook of the Minnesota Twins as I have entering any spring in a long time. Still, I'm very happy baseball is back and there will no shortage of things drawing my interest over the next month and a half leading up to Opening Day. What's catching your attention as 2026 spring training gets rolling? View the full article

There was a time when Gary Sanchez was only valuable because of his ability to hit home runs. When you hit at least 30 homers twice for the New York Yankees, your hype train will be out of control. But Sanchez, who returned to the Milwaukee Brewers as a backup catcher on a one-year, $1.75 million contract, wasn't very good with the glove. In his last two seasons with the Yankees, he had a run value of -5 in the 60-game 2020 season and -11 in 2021, per Statcast. The Fielding Bible had Sanchez with a -4 defensive runs saved in 2020, which ranked 94th among 101 catchers, and -10 in 2021, which was 114th out of 116. He turned a corner when he went to the Minnesota Twins in 2022, where he had a +2 run value and a zero DRS. Splitting 2023 with the New York Mets, who cut him at the end of May, and the San Diego Padres, he had a +4 run value and +7 DRS. So maybe it was a Yankees problem? In only 28 games at catcher with the Brewers in 2024, Sanchez was at zero run value and -1 DRS. But it was noticeable how Sanchez was no longer a liability behind the plate. His framing numbers were horrible with the Yankees, registering a -5 each of his last three seasons there (2019-2021), then were at zero, +3, and zero from 2022-24. For some reason, Sanchez regressed in 2025 with the Baltimore Orioles. He had a -5 run value, -8 DRS, and -3 framing. Sanchez was limited to 29 games with the Orioles in 2025 due to a sprained right knee and inflammation in his right wrist after signing for $8.5 million. Sanchez made $3 million with the Crew in 2024. But now the 33-year-old is back for a second tour of duty with the Brewers, who have a reputation for fixing and developing catchers. So that is perhaps what drew him to return, getting back to what made him an OK defender. As the backup to William Contreras, Sanchez won't be needed that much behind the plate. The Crew's two backups in 2025, Eric Haase and Danny Jansen, had a combined 34 starts behind the plate. Sanchez had a .231/.297/.418 slash line with the Orioles in 2025 in 101 plate appearances, with five homers and 24 RBIs. That came after a .220/.307/.392 showing with the Crew in 2024. What the Brewers do need from Sanchez, a right-handed hitter, is his ability to hit the long ball. In 2024, he hit 11 homers in 280 plate appearances over 89 games. He had 27 starts at catcher, 40 starts as the designated hitter, and one at first base. As a pinch-hitter with the Crew, Sanchez had a .294/.368/.471 slash line (5-for-17) with one homer and three RBIs. Never known for his batting average, Sanchez had similar splits against right-handed pitchers as he did against left-handers. Against righties, he has a career mark of .228/.309/.459, while posting a .214/.309/.468 line when facing lefties. He has homered in 5.5% of his plate appearances vs. righties and 6.1% vs. lefties. How much time Sanchez gets at designated hitter will depend on how much regular DH Christian Yelich plays in left field, which, at the moment, doesn't appear very often (19 games in 2024). Injuries can change that scenario, however. So Sanchez will get about two dozen or so games starting in place of Contreras, who will DH on most days he isn't catching. That will leave Sanchez to be a pinch-hitter, although manager Pat Murphy will need to be careful as to when to deploy him in case of an injury to Contreras. Sanchez would be the best power option off a bench that is likely looking like first baseman-left fielder Jake Bauers, outfielder Brandon Lockridge, and one of either Garrett Mitchell or Blake Perkins, whoever isn't starting in center. Following the trade of Andruw Monasterio in the Caleb Durbin deal with the Boston Red Sox, there is one open bench spot for an infielder. View the full article

Through no fault of his own, Miguel Amaya was one of the Cubs' most disappointing stories of 2025. In theory, he showed some very encouraging things. In reality, it's hard to deliver much of anything across 28 games and 103 plate appearances. Injuries derailed his campaign. Amaya hit the injured list with an oblique strain in late May. He took a long time to get back to the active roster and, upon his return, was shut down for the year when he viciously sprained his ankle in mid-August. Such disappointment stems not only from a lost year, but the expectations that were set forth as a result of the second half of the 2024 campaign. Two years ago, Amaya got off to a brutal start. His first-half wRC+ was 59, while he hit just .211 and reached base at a paltry .266 clip. Somewhat famously, Amaya revamped his approach and his mechanics almost entirely. That yielded immediate results: a 112 wRC+, a .271 average, and a .316 OBP after the All-Star break. His slug came along with everything else; his slugging average leapt from .288 in that first half to .444 in the second. There was a great deal more elevated contact, and the overall quality of the contact improved. Given the small sample, though, the question persisted about whether the improvements Amaya demonstrated were sustainable. It turns out, they were, or at least might have been. Amaya's first 100 plate appearances bore a .280/.313/.505 line and a 125 wRC+. The catcher who was once considered an heir apparent to Willson Contreras behind the plate at Wrigley finally looked ready to do so, though he benefited from being in a true timeshare with Carson Kelly even while he was in the lineup. Amaya and Kelly are set to resume their duties as the team's catching tandem. The latter, however, was able to take advantage of Amaya's absence. Kelly (115 wRC+) turned in his first above-average offensive season since 2021, posting the highest average of his career (.249) and his best OBP (.333) and slugging (.428) since that 2021 campaign. Such an output from a position where offense is a secondary concern could impact the timeshare early in 2026. The assumption is that the total body of work will earn Kelly an early edge in playing time, despite the fact that he didn't sustain the numbers posted in a torrid April. It's a sentiment shared by FanGraphs & Baseball Prospectus, as each have Kelly at 55 percent of the playing time behind the plate and Amaya for 40 percent. FanGraphs threw each another 4 percent of the reps as the designated hitter, while BP offered percent for Kelly and none for Amaya in that role. Either way, the bigger piece of the work goes to Kelly. That feels somewhat logical. Kelly's coming off a fine season, even if the splits reveal that it was, perhaps, a career year. Amaya is off a pair of long-term injuries. For a couple of reasons, though, that might not turn out to be the case. Kelly is a free agent at season's end. Amaya is not under team control until 2030. Unless you believe in Moisés Ballesteros behind the plate, the Cubs don't have a long-term plan at the spot beyond Amaya. Craig Counsell and his staff would love to see Amaya win more playing time than third parties project in 2026. The offensive difference between the two players seems marginal. If the second half of 2024 and early 2025 are to be believed, Amaya may offer more consistency in the quality of contact. Kelly, meanwhile, has a more patient approach at the plate that begets a more consistent on-base presence. Both bring something to the context of the Cubs' lineup. The opportunity for Amaya to gain some traction in establishing himself as a viable option down the line likely lies in the glove work. The first thing we tend to look at with catchers is their ability to frame. Immediately, there's an advantage there, in Amaya's direction: Amaya grades as a better overall framer than Kelly over the last three seasons. Obviously, the rate of called strikes goes down the farther a pitch gets from the zone. But there's also an interesting quality to Amaya's game that Kelly lacks: Kelly can grab a strike that is, technically, already a strike more effectively than Amaya can. Amaya, however, is more adept at grabbing a few extra strikes that fail to hit the zone. That's the essence of framing, in a broad sense. The new ABS system could have a bearing on this, but the understanding has been that ABS will help to make good framers better and bad framers worse. The Cubs have a pair of average framers, but if we're to believe in that sentiment on a spectrum, it could play to Amaya's advantage. It's an advantage that Amaya carries into blocking, where his Blocks Above Average over the last three years totals 11 to Kelly's seven. Where Amaya does start to cede some ground, however, is in controlling the run game. Kelly not only boasts faster pop times, but features a Caught Stealing Above Average of 13 in that span, to Amaya's -4. Ultimately, though, this leads to a trend similar to the offensive side, where each does something well that compensates for the other's shortcomings. Each half of the Cubs' duo behind the plate complements the other. That just doesn't answer the question of how Amaya emerges as a long-term starter out of his time working with Kelly. The easy answer is that he might not have to. Kelly's an impending free agent. There may be an organic changing-of-the-guard at the end of 2026 that leads to Amaya's graduation into the bulk of the playing time, just by staying the course. In a logistical sense, that concept of "staying the course" might be the ticket for Amaya to start to shift the playing time distribution early. It's easy to forget about Kelly's struggles for the better part of last year's second half. It's easier still to forget what Amaya turned in on the stat sheet prior to his oblique injury. Factor in the areas where Amaya has the defensive advantages, and it isn't difficult to imagine a world where his own skill set does the work. Last year's volume for Kelly may play to his advantage early (as evidenced by the projections liking him for more playing time in 2026), but there's very much a path for Amaya to do the things he does well in a small sample early on, forcing his way into a more even distribution as it wears on. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have eight players with at least 10 big-league starts under their belts (or at least piggyback bulk outings): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Mick Abel. There has been much handwringing this offseason about how that lot will be sifted and sorted. The team hasn't shown any openness to rolling with a six-man rotation on Opening Day, even when that meant leaving a good pitcher on the outside looking in, as was the case with Ober in 2023. In fact, they’ve been more likely to open the year with a four-man rotation, given the number of off days MLB schedules at the beginning of the year. In 2019, for instance, they used Martín Pérez out of the bullpen for the first couple of weeks. By contrast, in the bullpen, the Twins lack options. As opposed to the starting rotation, which has eight names for five spots, the bullpen is closer to having five spots for eight names. There are Anthony Banda, Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Eric Orze, who seem earmarked for the pen, and Travis Adams threw a few dozen innings for the Twins last season. Veteran non-roster invitees to spring training—like Dan Altavilla, Liam Hendriks, or Julian Merryweather—could factor in as well. But it’s all still very up in the air. Those other two spots (or three, depending on your opinion on Orze) could also be taken by starting pitching prospects like Connor Prielipp, John Klein, or Marco Raya—or, maybe, some of that work can be taken by whoever of the top eight starters doesn’t make the rotation. There has been talk of starters being moved to short relief. Festa is probably the name most bandied about on this topic. But what if we aren’t talking about short relief? The Twins have, in the past, attempted to carry a designated long reliever. It’s almost become a hackneyed cliché to bring up how poorly that plan worked in 2021 with Randy Dobnak or how Cole Sands spent half the year in the majors in 2023 while only throwing 21 innings. But in 2025, they rolled out a new scheme. The long relievers were on a schedule, similar to the starting pitchers. They did this in the minor leagues with a handful of pitchers, such as Adams, Pierson Ohl, Cory Lewis, Trent Baker, and Darren McCaughan. Instead of starting every fifth or sixth day, these pitchers would pitch in relief every fourth day, on three days' rest, throwing about 60 pitches (if it was going well). It may well have been an experiment, or simply a way to keep arms on the farm stretched out when the minor-league teams had an abundance of starting pitchers on the roster. It should be noted that the premium pitchers were not asked to fill this bulk, piggyback role. Matthews, Festa, Abel, Bradley, and Kendry Rojas started in every one of their appearances at St. Paul, and Andrew Morris only relieved twice. But it was a strategy that the Twins seemed pleased with. After the trade deadline selloff, they introduced the pitching plan to the major leagues. Adams and Ohl both pitched piggyback bulk days, as did veteran Thomas Hatch, and Abel piggybacked twice. This wasn’t a long-term setup, as Adams and Ohl eventually settled into short-relief roles, but it may have been a proof of concept for the team. So, what if the solution to having too many starters and not enough relievers is solved with the same move? Instead of sending a starting pitcher to the minors to lie in wait, what if the Twins designated one of their younger arms as a scheduled bulk reliever? There are some real benefits to this. First, as stated, the Twins would be able to keep their best pitchers out of the minors. If everyone is healthy, they can only keep two of Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, and Abel in the rotation. Even if someone like Festa were converted to short relief, that would still require two of those other names to be stashed in St. Paul—wasting bullets, as the kids say. And there are already plenty of starting arms in Triple-A, including Prielipp, Klein, Raya, Morris, Lewis, and Kendry Rojas. Second, it fills one of the eight bullpen spots—and with someone who will rack up innings. A designated piggyback pitcher throwing two to four innings every four days likely leads the bullpen in innings and would be one of the better performers on a rate basis as well. With a six-man rotation, the bullpen has to cover the same number of innings with fewer pitchers, but with a designated piggyback reliever, the other seven relievers are likely throwing fewer innings than they would otherwise. Third, it keeps the next line of defense stretched out. The sixth starter, if pushed into regular bulk relief, is always ready to step into the rotation should any injury occur. If they were instead throwing short relief, it may take time for them to prepare to throw five innings in a start—which is part of the reason the sixth arm often starts in Triple-A. If they are throwing 60 pitches every four days, though, they’re ready to step in immediately. Fourth, it also probably keeps the rotation a little fresher. The scheduled bulk reliever’s presence allows the regular starters to go a little shorter when they’re being piggybacked, reducing wear and tear. This is all well and good, and could be a perfectly viable way to keep someone like Matthews or Abel in the majors if they don’t make the rotation, but it’s not a sure bet to work. There are some practical issues—the biggest being in-game decision-making. If Ryan is rolling through five frames on a low pitch count, but it’s his scheduled bulk day, should manager Derek Shelton pull him to hand it off to Abel? If it’s a one-run game, should López be removed and the game be turned over to Matthews in the sixth? How long should he throw? Would it be better to turn the seventh inning over to a setup man, or would Woods Richardson pitch the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, since that’s what the schedule said? It’d take some real commitment to the philosophy to see this play out in practice. A minor-league team or a team out of contention can more easily commit to such a plan, because its wins and losses are less meaningful. But what about a team that (at least by the claims of their owner) expects to be competitive? For decades, analysts have asked what the future of pitching structure is. In 2009, Dave Fleming suggested a three-three-three rotation in which three pitchers each pitch once through the lineup in each game, for a total of three innings each. (Tony La Russa even tried to implement a version of this in 1993, when he was managing the A's.) Bullpen games and openers are not as popular as they once were, but they have still altered the way we think about divvying up innings. The Rockies briefly tried to carry us back to the days of the four-man rotation (but with hard limits on pitch counts at around 75), in 2012. As we move ever closer to whatever the next age of pitchers is, the Twins seem primed to take one of the first steps toward truly shaking up the four-day rest paradigm, whether it works or not. Could we see them implement it this season, and become the next trailblazers? View the full article

The Boston Red Sox offseason has been one of the more contentious among fans in recent memory. Promises of acquiring Pete Alonso and of retaining Alex Bregman went south as soon as the Winter Meetings began. Despite these letdowns, the Red Sox made substantial upgrades to their pitching staff, adding Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Ranger Suarez while also getting some much needed lineup support in the form of Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. Much of the frustration stems from the gap between expectations and reality. Boston failed to add a legitimate 30-plus home run bat, and for a team that finished 22nd in MLB in strikeouts last season, the offense saw little meaningful improvement. There is an argument to be made that swapping out Bregman for Contreras and Durbin is, at best, a lateral move. However, despite the narrative of being a "cheap" big-market ballclub, among their 14 transactions (12 trades, 2 MLB signings), the Red Sox spent roughly $161 million dollars thus far in the offseason, with potential moves still in the works. So, how did the Red Sox do this offseason? Are they a better team than the one that was eliminated by the Yankees in the Wild Card? The answer is unequivocally yes. Grading Every Red Sox Offseason Move Trade: Sonny Gray for Brandon Clarke, Richard Fitts, and PTBNL or cash The Red Sox's first major move of the offseason was acquiring what appeared to be, at the time, their second option in the rotation in Sonny Gray. A model of consistency despite his age, Gray continues to make batters uncomfortable, striking out at least 24% of opposing hitters since 2018, thanks to his deadly sweeper, which continues to grade out as one of the best in baseball. Fans might see his 4.26 ERA in 2025 and be frustrated with the return; his FIP and SIERA both indicate a bout of poor luck relative to his other seasons, but the Cardinals ate some money off his contract in this deal. That makes this deal represent minimal risk. He's one of the best third options in baseball and should thrive in his new environment. Regarding the return, Fitts was able to show what he had in the major leagues and never really excelled despite being an analytics darling. He returned a 12.3% K-BB% and recorded a 5.00 ERA. The real piece in this deal was trading away Brandon Clarke. Some may remember his hot start to the season, posting a 45% strikeout rate in April. After a blister in his hand, he was never really the same, and most prospect analysts tab him as a high-leverage reliever, which is useful in its own right but not someone worth clutching your pearls on if you're in the position the Red Sox are in. He was buried on the pitcher depth chart and had little chance of breaking into the majors in 2026. Trade Grade: B+ Trade: Johan Oviedo, Tyler Sameniego, and Adonys Guzman for Jhostynxon Garcia and Jesus Travieso Johan Oviedo is a classic Red Sox pitching lab play, plain and simple. While his numbers don't jump off the page, he was not acquired for his 2025 ERA, though his 3.57 mark in 40 innings of work is not a reason for discouragement. Oviedo will make his hay due to his unusual release point paired with elite extension. It is a combination that hitters have had a tough time gauging, causing whiffs on his fastball. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Oviedo lowered his release height, causing a new and more elite fastball shape, which clearly intrigued the Red Sox enough to trade one of their top five prospects in Garcia. Garcia also got a cup of coffee in the majors, not doing much with it, but the power is evident. In updated top-100 prospect lists, he appeared toward the bottom or not at all. This is largely due to his poor swing decisions, sporting a 26.1% chase rate and striking out 55% of the time while up with the big league club. While the raw power is real, the discourse all offseason has been about the logjam in the outfield for the Red Sox, and that includes Garcia, who was likely the fifth or sixth option behind the established major leaguers. Ultimately, he was expendable, particularly for a pitcher they believe they can optimize. Regarding the other three prospects, the jury is still out, though none of them cracked either team's top-30 prospect lists. By all accounts, Guzman is a warm body available to catch innings in the low minors. Trade Grade: B+ Trade: Willson Contreras for Hunter Dobbins, Blake Aita, and Yhoiker Fajardo Contreras filled a clear need at first base with Triston Casas' health an enigma, and the Red Sox did not want to force Nick Sogard and Romy Gonzalez to platoon at the position. Their infield defense was also bottom of the league last season. Contreras and his six Outs Above Average will provide a huge help on that front. Contreras, like his Cardinals teammate Sonny Gray, is remarkably consistent. Since 2021, he has hit 20 or more home runs in all but one season and has recorded 2.0 fWAR or more in every season since then. His move to first base last year will help keep him on the field, as he reached 135 games played, his most since 2018. Dobbins is a pitcher who had promise and a potential spot on the roster come Opening Day. He put together 61 solid innings of work in his rookie campaign with a 4.13 ERA and a 6.6% walk rate. The problem lay in his strikeout rate, which came in at a measly 17.6%, which works if you're able to keep the ball on the ground at an elite level. While 48.4% ground ball rate is not bad by any means, it's not enough to warrant full trust in the arm moving forward. I would have liked to see what his season would have looked like had he not torn his ACL in a freak accident while covering first, but that is the world we live in, and it's likely part of the reason the Red Sox felt okay with parting with him. Aita is not much of a loss, but Fajardo is a high-potential arm who profiles as a flamethrower at only 19. Trade Grade: B- Free Agent Signing: Ranger Suarez for 5 Years, $130M After reeling from the loss of Alex Bregman to the Cubs, the Red Sox responded with their first signing of the offseason, bringing in Ranger Suarez. He was not the typical arm the Red Sox targeted this offseason, as he offers minimal height, extension, and velocity. He instead found success forcing soft contact and controlling the strike zone. Suarez returned a 4.0 fWAR last year, a career-high, and a 3.20 ERA, his lowest since 2021. One note of concern is that his fastball velocity has been trending the wrong way over the last three years, starting at 93.4 mph, 92 mph, and then 91.2 mph. Based on results from the Red Sox aforementioned pitching lab, though, I believe that the Red Sox can reverse that trend and get it back up to around 93 mph or so. Nonetheless, the signing officially made the Red Sox one of the scariest rotations in baseball and moved them above everyone in the division except for the Blue Jays. Because of that, I consider this signing a huge success, though the lineup still leaves a lot to be desired. Signing Grade: A- Trade: Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and Comp Round B pick for Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan In a wild six-player trade a day before pitchers and catchers reported to camp, the Red Sox got their middle infielder in Caleb Durbin, who can play both third and second base. Durbin does not provide crazy power, something the Red Sox still need. But he is a fantastic contributor in four of the other five tools necessary to be a successful position player. He rarely strikes out (9.9% K%), swiped 18 bags thanks to his 70th-percentile sprint speed, and is an above-average fielder at third (5 DRS, 2 OAA). Monasterio provides similar utility ability to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, playing 10-plus games at 2B, 1B, and SS, while also getting eight games at 3B in 68 games in the majors. He profiles as a platoon hitter against lefties, hitting southpaws to the tune of a 136 wRC+ with a .837 OPS, whereas against righties it was a 96 wRC+ and a .709 OPS. Monasterio's place on the team come Opening Day will be determined by his performance in the spring, but expect him to start in AAA and be one of the first options up. Seigler crushed Triple-A pitching last season, slashing .285/.414/.478 walking 16.9% of the time and stealing 23 bags. He didn't play catcher except for one game in MLB, being stuck behind William Contreras, but he is a potential option to catch this season. The biggest piece that the Red Sox gave up in this deal was Kyle Harrison, as another Devers trade piece was shipped off. Much like the rest of the high-profile pitchers that have been dealt, there was little room for Harrison in the Red Sox's future plans. The emergence of both Payton Tolle and Connelly Early held him back, as Harrison threw only 12 innings for Boston last season. The ceiling is there for Harrison, a former top-25 prospect, though it became clear as the 2025 season wore on that the Red Sox were no longer interested in finding that ceiling. Drohan projects as fringe rotation option/middle relief arm ranking around 15th on most lists on the Red Sox farm system. He sits mid-90s with his fastball and has multiple above-average offerings. His primary issue is the inability to stay healthy which saw his prospect stock drop over the years. Fans are plenty familiar with David Hamilton, a solid glove with plus speed. Beyond that, he mostly just caused headaches for Sox fans when he stepped into the box, hitting .198 in 2025 with a .590 OPS. Trade Grade: A The rest of these moves are not as significant, so I won't cover them as in-depth as the rest, though they still added to (or subtracted from) the future outlook of the 2026 team. Trade: Isaiah Jackson for Vaughn Grissom This was a necessary move as both parties were ready to move on from each other. With the plethora of injuries that decimated the infield over the past few years, one would have assumed that Grissom's time would come at some point, but it just never arrived. They clearly preferred other options over him, and the Kristian Campbell puzzle still needed solving. Lost in the Betts and Devers shuffle, Grissom was acquired for Chris Sale, who would go on to win a Cy Young the season immediately after. A disastrous move all around. Trade: Ryan Watson for Justin Reimer A Rule 5 trade that was largely ignored, Watson provides solid upside for a Triple-A arm, sporting a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate last season, which gave him a 21% K-BB% (99th percentile in Triple-A). Watson, standing at 6'5, provides seven feet of extension, making him an obvious fit for the pitching lab. Watson is a name to keep an eye out for if the Sox need some mid-season bullpen help. Trade: Jake Bennett for Luis Perales This was a rare prospect-for-prospect deal. Bennett, similar to Watson, stands at 6'6 with elite velocity and extension. Because he is in Double-A, we have little in the way of advanced metrics, but he fits the mold that the Red Sox sought out this offseason. He is a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox's farm system and cruised last year with a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Perales will be sorely missed, looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's top closers, sitting 97-98 mph and touching 100. Trade: Gage Ziehl and PTBNL for Jordan Hicks, David Sandlin, 2 PTBNL, cash This trade struck a chord with me. For one, the Wicked Witch is gone, as Hicks simply did not mesh with the Red Sox once he was acquired. On the other hand, we salary dumped our salary dump. It all comes back to Rafael Devers, who remains sorely missed on this Red Sox team. The trade is greater than Hicks, who I'm glad is gone, but never should have been on the team in the first place. David Sandlin has been an intriguing prospect for a while now, but he did not seem to cut it as a starter and did not take to his new role in the bullpen. A brutal 6.7% K-BB% won't fly at any level you're at, but sitting close to 97 mph certainly will. I'll be curious to see what the White Sox do with him as his career unfolds. Ziehl, a fourth-round draft pick in 2024, provides some upside, controlling the zone well with average stuff on all of his offerings. The real win here for the Red Sox was getting off the Hicks contract, not the prospect they got in the deal. Free Agent Signing: Isiah Kiner-Falefa for 1 Year, $6 million Not the middle infield signing fans wanted, but Kiner-Falefa fills a hole and opens up things in the lineup for the Red Sox. He is a clear glove-first signing, providing little in the way of power, but has above-average Defensive Runs Saved numbers at 2B, 3B, and SS. His versatility will allow Alex Cora to play more matchups or give guys some needed rest as the season moves forward. As I said in the linked article, regular playing time for Kiner-Falefa means something has gone terribly wrong in 2026. In an eventful offseason full of various moves, it's clear the Red Sox got better. The question is, how much? That will largely be determined as the season unfolds. If I had to give it an overall grade... Final Grade: A- View the full article

There’s a particular kind of silence at a spring complex when bad news drops. Gloves still pop, conditioning runs still hum, but everything feels a little heavier. The Blue Jays received plenty of reasons for such silences just a day before camp officially opened for pitchers and catchers. Anthony Santander needs shoulder surgery and will be out for five to six months. Bowden Francis will miss the entire season after UCL reconstruction. Shane Bieber’s forearm still needs some rest. The bottom line is the defending American League champions will begin their title defense with at least three holes to patch. The Santander news was unexpected and will cause the biggest ripples. The Jays didn’t sign him to a big deal a year ago as a gamble. They expected the 44‑homer version of Santander from Baltimore that used to cause the Jays grief, not the 2025 edition who limped to a .175/.271/.294 line over 54 games and 221 plate appearances while fighting injury in the very shoulder that now needs surgery. The new timeline points to a mid-July return at the earliest, erasing hundreds of plate appearances from a projected mid‑order bat. All three of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, and Davis Schneider will inevitably see more time in the corners. This could also mean that George Springer will be patrolling the outfield more than initially thought. Manager John Schneider highlighted during his pre-spring training media availability that the team is fortunate to have plug‑and‑play options that reduce the pressures of some of these holes. What wasn’t said is that Toronto's depth also gives the front office additional time to scour the market and consider alternatives through trades or free agency. The Jays don’t need to find a steady, power bat that lengthens the lineup and insulates slumps, but it wouldn’t hurt. Barger might be the answer, and so too might Kazuma Okamoto. However, the expectation that Barger can build upon last season puts an immense amount of pressure on the young player. Meanwhile, Okamoto has an impressive Japanese resumé, but how he adjusts to MLB pitching might be impacted by the building urgency for immediate production. On the pitching side, Francis’ absence might not be immediately noticed, since he was injured for much of 2025, but when healthy (and effective), he eats innings and cuts through lineups. His 2025 line, a 6.05 ERA with 19 homers in 64 innings, hardly screams “indispensable,” but that’s not the point. Depth is essential over the course of 162 regular season games. Bieber sits in the middle of this conversation. The decision to patiently and deliberately ensure his health is perfectly rational. An MRI clean of structural damage. Week‑to‑week progression. Playing catch from up to 90 feet. It's all just a slower ramp-up to protect a pitcher who carried more stress innings than expected barely a year removed from Tommy John. It likely costs the club five to seven early starts, so maybe 30 or 40 innings, in exchange for preserving Bieber for September and beyond. If those innings migrate to José Berríos or Eric Lauer rather than a replacement‑level arm, the math says the Jays might lose only a few tenths of a win by the time the weather turns. On the negative side, this probably means more action for a bullpen that may or may not have Yimi García, who is also working his way back from injury. The 2025 Jays were legitimate. Their 94 wins, +77 run differential and American League crown weren't the product of smoke and mirrors. They led MLB in hits, made consistent contact and rode a resurgent Springer, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was out of this world in October. The pitching wasn’t elite by the headline numbers, but it was good enough. The additions of Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers should have a positive impact and reduce the need for the offense to outperform expectations. Even before the injuries, projection systems liked the Jays. FanGraphs gave Toronto the league's ninth-highest playoff odds, around 60 percent. MLB’s early‑January power rankings went even higher, slotting the Jays second on the board. On paper, a rotation fronted by Kevin Gausman and Cease, a strong catcher tandem in Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman and a rebalanced infield alignment, and a lineup still anchored by Guerrero and Springer will be tough to beat. The injuries don’t erase that foundation, but they do reduce the cushion. In a division where four teams project to win close to 85 games, early losses in April could be the difference between a first‑round bye and a red‑eye flight to a three‑game Wild Card set. So, are the Jays in trouble? That depends on how you define it. If you mean existential “trouble,” then no. Vlad Jr. is forecast to hit like a top‑five bat again (.299/.385/.533, according to the Steamer model), Cease provides the team with more confidence this year than Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer last year, and Kirk has matured at the plate and behind it. Yet, if “trouble” means thin margins between April and June, then yes, they’re in a tough spot. Santander’s surgery removes some of the balance in the lineup, both from his switch-hitting and power. Bieber’s delay forces the club to trust that the bridge pieces will hold long enough for him to be himself when it matters. Francis’ absence thins the stage crew that keeps the lights on. All of this is survivable, but concerning. Context sharpens the edges. The American League is better at the top than it was a year ago. The Mariners' run prevention and infield overhaul launched them into top‑three chatter; the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles are all projected to win 84 to 88 games; and the Central division might see some improvement too. This outlook reflects public models and league‑wide previews that have repeatedly tagged the East as the most stacked division. For the Jays, that means April leverage is not simply a "nice to have." What can they do about it, besides wait for Bieber and Santander to return? The answer is the same one Schneider gave implicitly last October: lean into the things that age well. The bullpen can carry more of the run prevention burden, and the infield defense is built to turn hard contact into outs. Springer at DH more frequently keeps one of the league’s most dangerous bats fresher. It’s not glamorous, but it’s how you convert coin‑flip games in May into extra rest days for September. And if the internal corner outfield committee doesn’t deliver enough thump by June, the front office has preserved options for a measured trade, which is exactly why they’ve resisted the urge to overreact before the market settles. Still, the thin line is real. Lose one more middle‑of‑the‑order bat for a month, and the calculus changes from “patch and advance” to “rearrange the architecture.” But this is where the Jays find themselves. Many weren’t sure last year’s team would be successful. While the challenges may add pressure and stress, they can also turn into motivation for a team hungry to repeat. The Blue Jays didn’t win last year by fluke. They succeeded by doing all the little things right. They won by getting contributions from everyone. The 2026 season has already added some new wrinkles. From April through June, when the roster is thinnest and the AL field is deepest, the team will need to find ways to win. That’s where the line between contender and crisis is drawn. If Toronto can otherwise stay healthy and navigate these early challenges, the conversation we’ll be having in late summer won’t be about trouble. It will be about seeding. View the full article

Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that's tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player. Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. So why didn't this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez's OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control. As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It's expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would've been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. TzBsMDBfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxOVVV3RlhVZ0VBQ1ZvTEJRQUhVQWRTQUZoV0IxRUFVVjFVQmdWV1YxWmRVUVJR.mp4 Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip. SzRsV2pfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdOUVVnZFdYMUFBV1FkWEF3QUhVZ0ZVQUZoV1ZnSUFVVjFVQ1ZWVVVBdFZBUXBm.mp4 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff. Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training. Nnk5TW9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdoVFVGWlNYd1FBRGxWUVZ3QUhVZ0JlQUZsVFZ3UUFBVlZSVmdZTkJWZFVCUVlF.mp4 Otto Lopez already ranked 12th in fWAR out of all shortstops in 2025. If Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season with great defense, he will easily find himself as a top-10 shortstop. View the full article

As spring training gets underway, the Kansas City Royals have made an addition to the club's pitching depth, a day after pitchers and catchers reported to open camp. The Royals acquired right-hander Mitch Spence from the Athletics in exchange for minor league right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence, a former 10th-round pick by the New York Yankees in 2019, was taken first overall by the then-Oakland Athletics during the 2023 Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft. Spence spent the past two seasons in the Athletics’ organization, pitching to a record of 11-16, 4.77 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, across 67 games and 236 career innings. Over the two years, Spence has shown an ability to be used both as a starting pitcher and in a relief role. Last season, Spence appeared in 32 games, with eight of those being starts, and went 3-6, with a 5.10 ERA, an identical 5.10 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP in 84 ⅔ innings. Spence’s hits allowed, home runs allowed, and walk rates all jumped from his rookie year, where Spence went 8-10 with a 4.58 ERA, a slightly better FIP of 4.21, and a WHIP of 1.38. The Royals’ rotation will likely consist of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. Spence will likely slot into the depth group with Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert as options in case injuries strike. As many Royals fans know, 2025 saw significant injuries to both Ragans and Bubic, so depth is vital across an 162 game season. Spence’s ability to pitch in multi-running roles could allow the 27-year-old to be called up when injuries strike, when the team is playing through a long stretch without a day off, or to help limit some innings on a taxed bullpen. Heading to the Athletics is Causey, who reached as high as Double-A last season with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Used solely as a reliever across both Single-A and Double-A, Causey appeared in 48 games, across 73 ⅓ innings, pitching to a 11-5 record, 1.72 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP, holding opposing batters to a .186 average against. The 23-year-old is a former fifth-round selection of the Royals during the 2024 MLB draft. The Royals begin their season in Atlanta on Friday, March 27, at 7:15 p.m. EST. View the full article

As spring training gets underway, the Kansas City Royals have made an addition to the club's pitching depth, a day after pitchers and catchers reported to open camp. The Royals acquired right-hander Mitch Spence from the Athletics in exchange for minor league right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence, a former 10th-round pick by the New York Yankees in 2019, was taken first overall by the then-Oakland Athletics during the 2023 Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft. Spence spent the past two seasons in the Athletics’ organization, pitching to a record of 11-16, 4.77 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, across 67 games and 236 career innings. Over the two years, Spence has shown an ability to be used both as a starting pitcher and in a relief role. Last season, Spence appeared in 32 games, with eight of those being starts, and went 3-6, with a 5.10 ERA, an identical 5.10 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP in 84 ⅔ innings. Spence’s hits allowed, home runs allowed, and walk rates all jumped from his rookie year, where Spence went 8-10 with a 4.58 ERA, a slightly better FIP of 4.21, and a WHIP of 1.38. The Royals’ rotation will likely consist of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. Spence will likely slot into the depth group with Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert as options in case injuries strike. As many Royals fans know, 2025 saw significant injuries to both Ragans and Bubic, so depth is vital across an 162 game season. Spence’s ability to pitch in multi-running roles could allow the 27-year-old to be called up when injuries strike, when the team is playing through a long stretch without a day off, or to help limit some innings on a taxed bullpen. Heading to the Athletics is Causey, who reached as high as Double-A last season with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Used solely as a reliever across both Single-A and Double-A, Causey appeared in 48 games, across 73 ⅓ innings, pitching to a 11-5 record, 1.72 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP, holding opposing batters to a .186 average against. The 23-year-old is a former fifth-round selection of the Royals during the 2024 MLB draft. The Royals begin their season in Atlanta on Friday, March 27, at 7:15 p.m. EST. View the full article

The Brewers and Red Sox partook in the trade heard around the world earlier this week. General manager Matt Arnold, known for his ability to find players with upside and send them into Milwaukee's remarkable development program to maximize their talent, shocked many when he traded his entire big league depth chart earlier this week. Caleb Durbin, Anthony Seigler, and Andruw Monasterio all went to Boston. This begs the question: who will play third base now? In this video, we analyze the possibility of Joey Ortiz, Andrew Fischer, Brock Wilken, and Luke Adams all being the team's starting third baseman come Opening Day. View the full article

Kendry Rojas dominated the minor leagues last season until he got to Triple-A. In this video, we take a look at whether he can get back to producing like an ace or if he‘ll disappoint in 2026. View the full article

There's a certain tension between what Cade Horton throws and what he says (or thinks) he throws. Ask Horton, and he'll tell you he has a four-seam fastball, a changeup, a slider and a curveball, and that he worked in a sinker with some success in 2025. Baseball Savant reflects that. However, Baseball Prospectus has a wider array of potential tags for pitch types, and does a better job of classifying pitches—sometimes even contravening the identifications the hurler themselves assign to their offerings. For them, Horton throws a hard cutter (what he calls the fastball), a sweeper (what he calls his slider), a slider (what he calls his curve), and the changeup and sinker. Horton is such an extreme natural supinator that even though he doesn't consciously throw a cutter or a sweeper, those are the shapes his fastball and slider approach. Everything he throws moves to the glove side more than one would expect, based on his three-quarter arm slot. Only a handful of pitchers in the league are more unusual in this way, and most of them throw from lower slots, so Horton gives hitters a unique set of problems to solve. This should sound familiar. As we've discussed before, Horton is very much like fellow Cubs starter Justin Steele, who has thrived as one of the best pitchers in the National League for the last half-decade with a brace of pitches that won't stop moving toward right-handed batters. He, too, has what he calls a four-seam fastball but what acts like a cutter, and a slider that sweeps so much that Prospectus classifies it that way. There are three key differences, though: Steele is left-handed; Horton is a righty. Steele has largely kept his secondary breaking ball, a true curve, in his holster. He'll throw it, but it's not a major part of his approach to either right- or left-handed batters. Horton is much more comfortable with that power curve (or slider) than Steele is with his bigger breaker. Horton's changeup is a better pitch than any offspeed offering Steele has come up with to date. The first of those three things works in Steele's favor, when it comes to the other two. Left-handed batters are less used to facing lefty hurlers than right-handed batters are to facing righties. Thus, the natural platoon split for a southpaw is wider. When Steele starts, opposing managers tend to stack their lineups with right-handed bats. However, even without the platoon advantage, Steele finds an advantage based on handedness. His stuff profile bullies those hitters, steering everything in on their hands or toward their back knee. It's a set of pitch shapes a lefty batter would be much more comfortable seeing from a righty pitcher, because they have more reps against righties than even righty batters have against lefties—especially ones who pitch like Steele, A lack of familiarity or comfort makes Steele a tough matchup. Horton is unusual, too, but not in a way that stumps opponents quite as thoroughly as Steele can. Thus, whereas Steele can survive (and even dominate) by attacking hitters with that cutter-sweeper mix, Horton has to do more things well. Happily, he's already adjusted to that reality. He throws his curve/slider much more than his slider/sweeper to lefty batters, and he no sooner found this highly effective changeup than made it an important part of his repertoire against them. He has to be more well-rounded and versatile than Steele, but luckily, he's proving to be. It doesn't hurt that he throws about 4 miles per hour harder than Steele does. There's a question worth asking here, though. Horton has that second breaking ball, with more depth and just as much velocity as the sweepier one. He uses it against righties, because righties would (frankly) wreck the sweeper. But he only threw the curve/slider 18% of the time when facing lefties as a rookie. He threw the changeup a bit more, but that still left him going to the four-seamer/cutter 55% of the time. That might be too much. In his first whirlwind tour of the majors, lefties didn't really get to him, but they certainly had a better time of things than righties did. Horton v. RHH: 228 PA, .184/.260/.301, 51 K, 16 BB Horton v. LHH: 248 PA, .251/.302/.361, 46 K, 17 BB If he makes no significant adjustment, it seems fair to say that he's going to experience unpleasant regression against lefty batters in 2026. To avoid it, Horton needs to go to the curve/slider more. There's a minor problem with that plan, though, which we should also talk about: he needs to better understand his own fastball. Here, from a good approximation of a lefty batter's vantage point, are the average trajectories of Horton's three main pitches against them in 2025. You're not a professional hitter, and you're not seeing what those hitters would actually see, anyway, but you're seeing an animated representation thereof. You probably see the issue: The curve comes out of a slightly higher release point and then stays higher than the fastball. One thing Horton does not have, because of the slot he employs and the way his arm works within it, is carry on the fastball or that valuable flatness on the heater at the top of the strike zone. Without that, and with the curve/slider popping out high like that, hitters can distinguish the two offerings fairly early. That works fine if you execute perfectly, and if you've outsmarted the batter. If Horton catches a hitter looking for a fastball but throws them a curve/slider, they're very unlikely to swing. That's bad news if it's a strike-to-ball breaker, but if he throws one that's intended to drop right into the zone and earn a called strike, he'll succeed. If the opponent is sitting on that breaking ball and spots it out of the hand, it might still work, if Horton has thrown a really good strike-to-ball version of the pitch. That's how he can get chases and whiffs with that pitch. However, the fastball's lack of hop means that if a hitter is looking for that pitch and it's not in the zone, they can probably still lay off it. If they're looking for the curve/slider and they get the heater, they're likely to be late, but this is the other problem with his current mix: the fastball isn't always in the right location to properly punish a hitter for being late. For that (and, in general, with a heater that moves toward the glove side, at least relative to almost every other similar fastball), you want to attack the first-base side of the plate. The ball should be boring in on a lefty batter, the same way Steele's hard cutter does. Instead, not quite understanding that he throws a cutter and thinking of it as a four-seamer, Horton mostly keeps the pitch away from lefties. Even without good rising action on the heater, you want to elevate it more than this, to set up the changeup and the vertical breaking ball. You certainly want to attack the inner third with it, at least at times. Horton hasn't found either the right mechanics or the conviction to do that yet. More of that power curve or slider will be vital, for Horton to do as well against lefties as he did in 2025. It'll certainly be necessary, if he wants to improve upon his rookie campaign and prove himself to be the ace of a World Series-caliber team. To properly utilize it, though, he needs to better disguise it out of the hand. That might mean a small amount of specialized mechanical work, but it mostly means practicing attacking the glove side with that glove-side heat, and then having enough confidence to execute a multi-dimensional plan on the mound. He has all the makings of a Cy Young Award contender. If you're expecting him to scale those heights in 2026, though, spend the spring watching how he mixes and locates his stuff to lefty batters. View the full article

Projection systems are not in the business of hype. They are cold, calculating, and often conservative. That's what makes it so interesting when one of them plants a flag on a player who has barely cracked the upper minors. FanGraphs’s ZiPS has done exactly that with Kaelen Culpepper. The Twins likely don’t agree with ZiPS's plan to promote him aggressively in 2026. It seems more likely that they'll roll with Brooks Lee at shortstop. But after a dynamite first full professional season, the Twins' 2024 first-rounder has quickly become one of the system’s favorites, and that's no accident. A Massive Step Forward Culpepper took a massive step forward last season, showing he can impact the game with his bat while sticking at shortstop. In 113 games, he posted a 138 wRC+ with 25 steals, flashing both on-base ability and speed. The organization named him its Minor League Player of the Year, and he enters 2026 as a consensus top-100 prospect. ZiPS noticed. He was among MLB’s biggest ZiPS gainers for 2026, a list that includes Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. A year ago, he was projected for just 0.3 fWAR. Now he sits at 1.9 fWAR, were he to get a full year's worth of playing time. That's a substantial jump for a player who has yet to play at Triple-A. To reach that 1.9 fWAR mark, ZiPS projects Culpepper for 510 plate appearances in 2026. Obviously, that's essentially a default number, to give a sense of what a full season would look like from him. He's unlikely to play that much at Target Field this year. If he did, though, the model thinks he'd be perfectly serviceable. The offensive line is modest on the surface. ZiPS projects a 94 wRC+ and a .376 slugging percentage, pointing to a lack of present power. But there is value baked in elsewhere. He's projected for a .305 wOBA, positive defensive value, and enough overall contribution to be an above-average regular. His player comparisons are not superstar names: Bill Spiers. Howard Freigau. Ricky Adams. Those comps speak to versatility and steady value, more than flash. ZiPS isn't projecting stardom right now. It just shows promise, with room to grow. That's where it gets interesting. The Defense Debate The Twins front office believes Culpepper improved his overall outlook with defensive gains last season. That belief is reflected in the positive defensive projection. “His makeup and his leadership on the field, the way he goes about his work, have all been exactly what we’ve been looking for,” Twins GM Jeremy Zoll said. The arm strength is there. The internal reviews are strong. But not everyone is convinced he sticks at shortstop long term. Baseball America’s JJ Cooper has expressed skepticism about Culpepper’s ability to remain at the position. While he has the arm, some evaluators question his range and actions. Many scouts believe he may ultimately slide to third base. That positional uncertainty matters, because the offensive bar changes depending on where he plays. A 90 OPS+ with solid defense is more palatable at shortstop than at third base. ZiPS, at least for now, is betting that the glove will be good enough. A Complicated Shortstop Picture The Twins' shortstop depth chart adds another wrinkle. Lee is expected to open the season as the starter. The team added a veteran backup option, Orlando Arcia, to provide depth and stability. On paper, there is no everyday job available for Culpepper. But depth charts have a way of unraveling. One injury to a significant player could change the equation quickly. If Lee misses time or struggles offensively, Culpepper could force the issue. Whether it's Lee, Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall, a major injury to any of the injury-prone infielders slated to start could crack the door for Culpepper. For that matter, Lee is projected for a lousy 84 wRC+ and worse defense than Culpepper, so if you ask ZiPS, the Twins should simply escalate the young player past the incumbent right now. The Twins haven't been shy about promoting prospects who prove ready. Culpepper may not need much Triple-A seasoning. Minnesota saw this in 2025, with Luke Keaschall playing only 28 games at Triple-A before his promotion. The Offensive Ceiling Culpepper is not a finished product offensively. He can be prone to chasing off-speed pitches out of the zone. That approach will be tested at higher levels. But there were encouraging signs, too. He walked 50 times and struck out just 90 times, showing better swing decisions than some evaluators expected. He also reached the 20-home run mark, despite posting the system’s third-highest groundball rate. That's significant. If he can learn to elevate consistently, there's more power in the profile than the current projections imply. That's part of why ZiPS is optimistic. The system sees a player who already produces value and has room to grow if the batted-ball profile improves. Why You Can Love Him, Too Culpepper profiles as an above-average regular with All-Star upside at an infield spot still to be determined. That kind of player doesn't need to be a franchise cornerstone to be immensely valuable. He's played just 139 minor-league games and has yet to face Triple-A pitching. On the surface, it might feel aggressive to expect a big-league debut this season. It's not unrealistic, though. If Culpepper keeps hitting as he did in 2025, the Twins will have no choice but to give him a look at the major-league level. ZiPS already believes he can handle a near-everyday role. Now, it becomes a matter of timing. Projection systems don't often fall in love. When they do, it's worth paying attention. ZiPS loves Culpepper. You probably should, too. Do you believe in the ZiPS projection for Culpepper? If not, what are realistic expectations for him in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

There is no question that A.J. Preller stays busy the entire offseason trying to improve the San Diego Padres' roster. The team's president of baseball operations has the reputation of being one of the most aggressive front-office executives in all of MLB. Even so, there haven't been a ton of moves by Preller this offseason. Sure, right-handed starter Michael King came back, he signed infielder Sung Mun Song from South Korea, and then added another bench bat in Miguel Andujar. Other than that, there haven't been any headline-grabbing moves. So, as the Friars are in the early days of spring training officially beginning, even with some players being in Peoria, Arizona, for weeks already, Preller met the media and gave some thoughts on where the roster stands just a week before Cactus League games begin. Padres Roster Status As most fans know, Preller understands the roster feels incomplete. That begins with the starting rotation. The rotation is pretty good at the top with Nick Pivetta, King, and Joe Musgrove. Randy Vasquez is the No. 4, but the last rotation spot is open with a handful of candidates vying to be on the Opening Day roster, but even those options come with questions. "Looking to add to the starting rotation," Preller said. "We've got some good competition, but I think always looking to fill out innings." View the full article

JUPITER, FL—Day two of Miami Marlins spring training from the Jupiter Academy featured Sandy Alcantara and Thomas White taking the mound and facing hitters. Alcantara, who is entering his ninth season with the organization, debuted his new sweeper in a pitch design session. He threw it about nine times. Why such an emphasis on the sweeper when he already has a deep arsenal to work with? "Because I throw hard, and everything I throw is hard," Alcantara said. "So me and (pitching coach Daniel) Moskos had a conversation last year about that. We needed a big break more and more slow, and finally we got it, so hopefully we do a good job throwing it." Following the pitch design, Alcantara went to hitters for feedback and they said the pitch looked "great." Likely to be named the Opening Day starter for the Marlins, Alcantara will first make his way back down to loanDepot park and represent the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. WBC participants have helped each other ramp up for the tournament by reporting to the Academy early. That includes Venezuela's Javier Sanoja, who faced Alcantara. "Before I took the mound today, I asked Moskos, 'Hey, is Sanoja here?' He said, 'No, but I can get him for you.' So okay, just put him out there. I know he's very aggressive. Maybe he can get an at-bat in the WBC, so let's see what happens." Midway through the at-bat, Moskos yelled "DR 1-0," and Alcantara threw his sweeper, which landed in for a strike. White is the consensus top prospect in the organization and a first-time non-roster invitee to big league camp at age 21. He faced four hitters. The goal for the talented left-hander is to put himself out there and talk to as many guys as he can and soak up information. "Any pitcher," said White when asked if there was anyone specifically he wanted to spend time with. "I also want to talk to some hitters about approach stuff. I threw some live BP's this offseason and Sal Frelick was one of the hitters, and I loved talking to him because he know the zone so well, and his approach is so good that it's good as a pitcher to know what hitters are taking, see if you can outsmart them or use them." White is spring training roommates with Robby Snelling, Fish On First's number three prospect. White describes him as a cheat sheet for his development because the 22-year-old Snelling has "done pretty much everything that I've done a year ahead of me." Making 21 starts across three minor league levels, White had an outstanding 2025 season overall, posting a 2.31 ERA and 2.27 FIP. However, battling through a back issue, his walk rate spiked to 17.6% over his final six starts (compared to 11.6% in all of his previous outings combined). "I just think I wasn't pitching like myself," White said. "My mechanics weren't really where I wanted them to be, not staying through the ball. It made the sweeper really good, but everything else—and especially the command—was affected a little bit." During the offseason, White made mechanical adjustments, increasing his stride length. In limited Triple-A action last September, he averaged only six feet of extension, but currently, he is around 6.8 feet and has maxed out at 7.1 feet. The key now for White in that aspect is consistency. Additional Notes - Manager Clayton McCullough said that Braxton Garrett touched 95 mph in his live BP session on Wednesday. "Yesterday was to try to mimic a little bit more of the first time of getting loose, sitting down and then go out there and kind of simulate what it would feel like to start a game," McCullough said. - On Monday, Andrew Nardi threw a pitch design, two sets of 15 pitches. "Sat 91 mph which is great for me, especially in a bullpen," said Nardi. "I sat down for five minutes and came back out. Was a little stiff, but kind of what everybody was expecting. Haven't done that in over a year." The next step for Nardi is to throw live BP at some point next week. - In addition to Alcantara and White, the following players threw pitch designs on Thursday: Janson Junk, Ryan Gusto, Robby Snelling, Lake Bachar, Tyler Zuber, Josh Simpson, Adam Mazur, Justin King, Karson Milbrandt and Garrett Acton. - Still no word from McCullough regarding which pitcher will start the spring opener on February 21. View the full article

Top-ranked Marlins prospect left-hander Thomas White speaks with the media about learning from big leaguers in camp and the mechanical adjustments he's made entering 2026.View the full article

For the second year in a row, the catcher William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers came to a last-minute deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. Contreras and the Crew settled on a one-year, $9.4 million contract for 2026 with a $14,5 million club option for 2027. The Brewers were set to enter the hearing with an offer of $8.5 million, while Contreras was seeking $9.9 million, so Milwaukee definitely moved above the midpoint, which would have been $9.2 million. A three-person arbitration panel would have decided on one of the two figures and nothing else. Last year, the two sides settled at $6 million for 2025 with a $12 million club option for 2026. The Brewers declined that team option, setting up another arbitration battle. A third and final trip through this process looms next offseason. Contreras was the only player the Brewers didn't come to terms with before needing to exchange figures. Since being acquired from Atlanta in a three-team trade before the 2023 season, Contreras has won two Silver Sluggers (2023, 2024) and was a 2024 All-Star. He received down-ballot NL MVP votes in each of his first two seasons. His slash lines for each of his three seasons are .289/.367/.457 in 2023, .281/.365/.466 in 2024 and .260/.355/.399 in 2025. He hit a career-high 23 homers in 2024, with 17 each in 2023 and 2025, typically hitting in the No. 3 or cleanup spot in the batting order. Contreras' 2025 production was hindered by a broken left (catching hand) middle finger, an injury he sustained late in the 2024 season and carried over. It became a big issue early in 2025, but he played through it, starting 128 games at catcher and another 22 at designated hitter. Contreras is one of the top catchers in all of MLB due to his offensive prowess and strong defense. The Brewers' filing of $8.5 million matched the record for a second-time arbitration-eligible catcher, which was set by Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Contracts with options are considered multiyear deals and can't be used as comps for other arbitration cases. It is likely that the Brewers will decline next year's club option. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins traded international bonus pool allotments to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda on Thursday, they announced. Twins Daily's John Bonnes was on site in Ft. Myers for the news. Banda, 32, has pitched in nine major-league seasons for eight different teams. He has an unimpressive 4.44 career ERA, but since the start of 2024, he's appeared in 119 games and has a 3.14 ERA. He pitched in 17 postseason games for the Dodgers during their back-to-back World Series championship runs. He struck out 23.3% of opposing batters over those two campaigns. Despite having pitched in each of the last nine big-league seasons, Banda has only amassed a bit over 4 years of major-league service time. The Dodgers agreed to a $1.625-million deal with Banda in early January, to avoid arbitration, but they designated him for assignment a month later. Now, the Twins have a chance to control Banda through 2027, at a low price. They designated right-handed journeyman Jackson Kowar for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Banda. View the full article

Joe Ryan did not sound bitter. He did not sound triumphant. Mostly, he sounded tired of the whole thing. “It is what it is—it’s done,” Ryan said, after he and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a one-year, $6.2-million contract on January 26 that includes a $13-million mutual option for 2027. The deal came together just hours before Ryan and team officials were scheduled to board flights to Phoenix for an arbitration hearing. In the end, cooler heads and simple math won out. The Twins and Ryan were just $500,000 apart when they filed figures ahead of the January 8 deadline. For a pitcher coming off a 13-10 season with a 3.42 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 171 innings, the gap was relatively minor. But the process is rarely about the gap. It's about the ritual, and the ritual remains as uncomfortable as ever. A Strong Season With Some Late Noise Ryan’s platform year was strong, by any reasonable measure. He worked 171 innings, missed bats at an elite clip (28.2% strikeout rate), and (for much of the season) was a steadying force in a rotation that needed one. Through his first 121 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.82 ERA and allowed just 14 home runs. He looked like the type of arm who could anchor a playoff series, and was named to his first All-Star team. Then the context changed, and so did his performance. Following a rough outing in Toronto on August 25, Ryan acknowledged that his energy dipped in the weeks after the August 1 trade deadline, when the Twins were no longer positioned to chase a postseason spot. Over his final 10 starts, he logged a 4.89 ERA and allowed 2.2 home runs per nine innings, across 49 2/3 frames. The sharpness faded. The fastball command wavered. The ball left the yard more frequently. In arbitration, those details matter. The late-season fade becomes an exhibit. The home run rate becomes a bullet point. The human context often gets stripped away. For teams and players, this can create wounds that are hard to heal. Ryan recently switched representation to VC Sports Group, but the figures for the filing had already been exchanged with his previous agency. When talks stalled, the numbers went in. When neither side blinked immediately, the hearing date loomed. Ryan admitted he was not a fan of the system and feels like baseball needs to find a new salary system for young players. “They’re trying to win, and that’s kind of their show,” Ryan said. “That’s their baseball game. … I think at the end of the day that process is pretty antiquated, and kind of stupid. No one in the league likes it. No team likes it. No one that works for a team likes it. No players like it. It doesn’t benefit anyone. It’s just a dumb system.” The Skubal Effect If there is any momentum for change, it may come from cases like Tarik Skubal’s. The Tigers ace recently secured a significant arbitration win, as he filed at $32 million and Detroit countered at $19 million. The ruling in favor of the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner broke the previous arbitration salary record of $31 million, set by Juan Soto in 2024. More importantly, it represented a raise of $21.85 million, more than double the previous record increase of $9.6 million set by Jacob deGrom in 2019. Skubal’s victory reinforced the fact that frontline starters with elite results are being rewarded aggressively by panels. When a Cy Young-caliber arm walks into a hearing with comparable stats and walks out with the number he filed, it shifts the landscape. For pitchers like Ryan, that matters. While Ryan is not coming off a complete and excellent season, he is part of a wave of arbitration-eligible starters who combine innings volume with swing-and-miss ability. As salaries for that tier climb through arbitration, teams will have a harder time suppressing numbers by leaning on selective splits or brief downturns. Panels have shown a willingness to reward impact and durability. Skubal’s case strengthens the argument that pitchers with high strikeout totals, strong run prevention, and meaningful innings loads deserve to be paid accordingly. It nudges the system slightly toward the players, even if the framework remains flawed. Business as Usual For the Twins, avoiding the hearing was the priority. Arbitration hearings can strain relationships. They force teams to highlight weaknesses. They require players to sit quietly while their value is dissected in an adversarial fashion. Minnesota has generally tried to avoid that outcome with its core pieces. Getting a deal done at $6.2 million keeps Ryan in the fold on reasonable terms and leaves open the possibility of a $13-million mutual option next season. From a roster-building standpoint, it's tidy. From a player relations standpoint, it avoids unnecessary scars. Still, Ryan’s blunt assessment lingers. The system is antiquated. It benefits both sides, but in somewhat brutal fashion. Both sides play their roles because the collective bargaining agreement requires it. In the end, the Twins and Ryan did what most teams (and players) eventually do. They compromised. They shook hands. They moved forward. The process may be dumb, as Ryan put it. But until something replaces it, this is the game within the game. Do you agree with Ryan that something needs to change? What system would be fair for both players and teams in the next CBA? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Kruz Schoolcraft, the Padres' no. 2 prospect, has all of the intangibles to be the team's next ace going forward. In this video, we give an overview of the 6-foot-8 southpaw, his strengths, and overall projection of when you can expect to see him in San Diego. View the full article