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When Garrett Mitchell hit the injured list in late April while Blake Perkins continued recovering from a fractured shin, the Brewers handed Jackson Chourio the keys to center field. The results were mixed. Chourio had a positive Outs Above Average (2), but that net estimate came from some extremes of performance. Chourio both rated well metrically and passed the eye test when pursuing balls laterally, but struggled when going back or coming straight in on the ball. Only 11 outfielders made at least four 5-star catches (those with an estimated catch probability under 10%), according to Statcast. Chourio was one of them. However, those 11 players' success rates on catches the system rated as easier (1-4 stars) went as follows: Ceddanne Rafaela - 94.6% Victor Scott II - 94.4 Denzel Clarke - 93.6 Jacob Young - 92.5 Pete Crow-Armstrong - 91.4 Myles Straw - 91.3 Kyle Isbel - 88.5 Steven Kwan - 85.7 Wilyer Abreu - 81.4 Isaac Collins - 78.4 Jackson Chourio - 76.8 In other words, Chourio could be exceptionally rangy, but he was also mistake-prone. No Brewers fan has much trouble reconciling that data with their day-to-day experience. akQ5Z0FfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdnRFVGTURCVllBQ1ZjTFV3QUhWUVJTQUFCV1ZGY0FCUVFFQVFRRlZ3WURVUUJU.mp4 After coming up through the minor leagues as a center fielder, Chourio played exclusively in the corners in his rookie campaign of 2024. Gold Glove right fielder Sal Frelick entered the year with 55 career big-league appearances in center and has been more fundamentally consistent in the field. The Brewers moved Chourio instead, though, because his skill set is better suited to play up the middle. While Frelick plays an aggressive outfield in his own right, Chourio is the more explosive athlete. He had the superior sprint speed—29.2 feet per second in 2025, which ranked in the 93rd percentile. That early quickness enabled him to have better jumps on batted balls, while still taking average routes. Moving quickly on contact leaves an outfielder with less time to read the ball, so most players with better jumps take less direct routes. As the defenders tasked with covering the most ground, good center fielders must be able to do both. Chourio falls into that category in the graph above. He’s one of the defenders near the vertical midpoint and to the right of the average line. His neighbors include Daulton Varsho, Bryce Teodosio, and Andy Pages, all of whom are strong defensive center fielders. Frelick, meanwhile, sits right along the line, meaning his reaction time and routes make him best suited for a corner spot. Scouts knew Chourio had the tools to be an above-average center fielder, with most prospect rankings assigning a 60 grade to his glove. The numbers back up those eye tests. It’s still a question whether he will develop the increased awareness and confidence to turn that athleticism into more consistent defense. If he can’t, he’ll be better off in the corners, where his speed can compensate for some of his weaknesses with less ground to cover. For instance, he'll have to get better at managing space and feeling the wall when pushed back to the barrier. ek1MNTBfWGw0TUFRPT1fVjFNRkJWZFZYd2NBRFZRSEFBQUhWRkFBQUZsV1V3SUFBd1pSVXdOVVVnZFhCVllG.mp4 The Brewers may be best off if Chourio can make those strides in 2026. While Mitchell, Perkins, Brandon Lockridge, and Steward Berroa are great defensive center fielders, none of them is likely to fill Milwaukee’s need for more consistent power. The most in-house help could come from a change in left field, where Chourio has played most of his big-league innings. Jake Bauers has long flashed impressive raw power, and he finally made enough contact in September to start taking advantage of it. Shifting Christian Yelich back to the field semi-regularly would also give the Brewers more flexibility to slide another bat into the DH spot. However, both are poor fielders on a defensively-minded roster. Bauers has been worth -11 DRS and -12 OAA in just over 200 games in the outfield, while Yelich has not graded positively in either metric since 2018. Barring significant roster changes, the Brewers face a decision between defensive floor and offensive upside in their outfield. Inserting a bigger bat in left field may only be worth the gamble if they have a center fielder who can run down balls in the gap that Bauers or Yelich won’t reach. That risk becomes easier to take if Chourio becomes more trustworthy in center. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have spent the last half-decade rebuilding a minor-league system that lacked major-league-ready talent to help supplement the roster playing at Fenway Park. This movement towards developing, young, homegrown talent was needed after the 2018 World Series champions were supplemented by a mixture of young talent from the upper minors and by trading away other prospects to bring in key contributors like Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi. Following 2018, the farm system was rather weak, being ranked the worst in the league by Baseball America. At the beginning of the 2019 season, the top 10 prospects in the organization included the likes of Michael Chavis, Darwinzon Hernández, Triston Casas, Bobby Dalbec, Tanner Houck, Jay Groome, Antoni Flores, CJ Chatham, Durbin Feltman, and Bryan Mata. Of those players, only two remain with the Red Sox, and three of them are planning on playing overseas in Japan for the 2026 season. Groome will be reinstated from his year-long suspension for sports betting, and both Chatham and Flores have been out of professional baseball since the end of the 2022 season. Feltman last pitched with the Staten Island FerryHawks of the Atlantic League in 2025 and Chavis recently signed a minor-league deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Fast-forward from 2020 to the end of 2025, and the Red Sox have done a much better job of drafting and developing young players. It isn’t just the likes of Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer; the team saw players like Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle make the jump from MiLB to contribute important innings out of both the rotation and bullpen for a team fighting for a playoff spot. Guys like Jhostynxon Garcia and Brandon Clarke were used to bring in established rotation help in the form of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo. Now, after being ranked as the number one farm system entering 2025, the organization has been ranked as the 14th-best system by Baseball America. The farm system has been in flux, as Craig Breslow has completed 49 trades since he took over as the chief baseball officer. But it wasn’t just prospects being shipped out. Rather,, he both acquired major-league talent and replenished the minor-league depth through trades of end-of-roster guys like Chris Murphy and Brennan Bernardino. Despite ranking 14th now, the system is in no way lacking talent. It’s just that most of the top prospects now are in the lower minors. Outside of Tolle, Early, Franklin Arias, Mikey Romero and David Sandlin, the remaining top prospects have either played mostly in the low minors or have yet to make their professional debuts. Despite that, the organization has a lot of talent that could increase the organization’s ranking once games begin to get played. First-round pick Kyson Witherspoon is a player who could move quickly through the minors after falling to the Red Sox in the 2025 draft. Along with him are the likes of Justin Gonzales, who ended 2025 with Greenville and could see time in Portland in 2026 if he continues to produce offensively; Enddy Azocar, a young player with stronger underlying data than his .232/.302/.355 slash line suggests; and Henry Godbout, who slashed .341/.473/.477 in his first taste of professional baseball and is seen by many to be a potential breakout candidate in 2026. The system may look a little depleted after so many trades and graduations, but in reality, Breslow and the Red Sox have made sure to keep replenishing it as they go along. Newcomers in the system that should elicit interest include the likes of Luke Heyman, Jake Bennett, Isaiah Jackson, Ronny Hernandez, and Adonys Guzman. The farm system is doing well as the Red Sox have decided to cash in on some of the prospects they developed to bring in quality major-league talent. That ranking may look a lot different by the middle of the season depending on how the 2025 draft class looks early on. While they may not be in the top five, the Red Sox could see their ranking improve a few spots. Of course, no one knows what Breslow is thinking, and another blockbuster trade that sends out more prospects would see the ranking drop even more. But that’s what a farm system is for — to help create the best major-league team with talent from both inside and outside the organization. Not every prospect works out (as seen from the team’s top 10 in 2019) and sometimes a top-ranked farm system doesn’t equate to winning it all. By the end of 2018, the team had one of the worst systems but won it all since Dave Dombrowski mortgaged the future for the present. Those days are now long gone; the Red Sox have developed a mindset of not just building for the present, but to have a system that can continuously pump quality talent into the future. It's a difficult balance to strike, but the Sox appear more and more capable of it by the season. View the full article

It's been only a few weeks since Fish On First's previous 2026 roster projection, but the Miami Marlins have been very busy. Since then, they signed right-handed reliever Pete Fairbanks to a one-year deal worth $13 million, traded Dane Myers to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for outfield prospect Ethan O'Donnell, acquired Esteury Ruiz from the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitching prospect Adriano Marrero and dealt Eric Wagaman to the Minnesota Twins for pitching prospect Kade Bragg. The Marlins also lost right-handed reliever Ronny Henriquez to season-ending right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery. Accounting for those transactions, here is our Marlins Opening Day roster projection, version 3.0. Position Players Default Starting Lineup: C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Christopher Morel, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Griffin Conine, DH Heriberto Hernández Bench: INF/OF Connor Norby, UTIL Javier Sanoja, OF Esteury Ruiz, C/1B Liam Hicks Ruiz is the leading candidate to fill Myers' shoes. He isn't as good defensively, but can play all three outfield spots, and his speed makes him even more useful off the bench in late-game situations. Ruiz has hit much better versus left-handed pitchers during his MLB career (.720 OPS), so most of his plate appearances should come against them. The Marlins can use Ruiz's final minor league option at the end of spring training if another hitter in camp clearly outperforms him. Just Missed: OF Victor Mesa Jr., C Joe Mack, 1B Deyvison De Los Santos An injury to any of the left-handed-hitting outfielders listed above could open the door for Mesa to make his first career Opening Day roster. He appeared in 16 Marlins games in 2025 across two separate stints. Mack will likely finish the year as the club's most-used catcher. However, expect his debut to be delayed long enough for the Marlins to secure an extra year of club control over him. Once De Los Santos shows that his winter ball success can translate to affiliated ball, he'll get his opportunity to earn the full-time first base job. Pitchers Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Max Meyer Bullpen: RHP Pete Fairbanks, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Josh White, RHP Lake Bachar, RHP Janson Junk Edward Cabrera continues to draw widespread trade interest. Still, we can't assume his departure yet—the Marlins have made him available in the past without receiving what they consider to be a fair offer. Fairbanks essentially replaces the injured Henriquez. He will be the Marlins' highest-leverage reliever, pitching in most save situations. White is coming off one of the best seasons by a Marlins minor league reliever in recent memory, posting a 1.86 ERA and 1.65 FIP in 67 ⅔ innings pitched. He has zero left to prove in Triple-A. Relievers are so volatile that service time shouldn't influence the timing of his debut like it would for a starting pitcher or position player. His inclusion leaves the Marlins with only one left-hander in their bullpen, but keep in mind that White struck out more than 40% of the lefties he faced in 2025. Just missed: LHP Braxton Garrett, LHP Josh Simpson, LHP Andrew Nardi Garrett's overall career numbers are actually slightly better than Cabrera's. He would be the first starting pitcher called up in the event of a trade. Going down to AAA may help shake off the rust after spending last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Marlins have had opportunities this offseason to squeeze Simpson and Nardi off their 40-man roster, but other players were sacrificed instead. That suggests the club truly believes in the positive flashes Simpson showed at the end of a difficult season and the progress Nardi is making in his comeback from recurring back problems. They will both be monitored closely during spring training. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays have made another high-profile acquisition in an already busy offseason, this time addressing the lineup by signing Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year contract. It’s an exciting deal, but it’s not quite the position player signing Jays fans were expecting or hoping for when this offseason started. It’s been impossible to look into the markets of consensus top free agent Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette without acknowledging the Blue Jays as an obvious fit. While Jays fans should be well practiced at avoiding falling victim to the rumour mill by now, there has been somewhat of an assumption that the Jays will be signing at least one of those guys, even from some industry insiders. Whenever a team makes a big addition – and Okamoto’s four-year, $60 million deal is a big addition – there’s always discourse as to how the move will impact the team's approach to the rest of the market. This signing puts the Blue Jays at an estimated luxury tax payroll of just over $308 million, which is currently the second highest mark in MLB, following only the L.A. Dodgers. It’s impossible to have a take other than that being awesome for Blue Jays fans, but it could very well make it financially impossible for the club to add another nine-figure contract like the ones that Bichette and Tucker seem destined to sign. Or maybe it’s still possible, but it would take a subtraction from the current roster via trade. In that case, Anthony Santander and José Berríos are the obvious names to point at. There’s also a chance that the Blue Jays continue acting like a behemoth organization and are able to sign one of Tucker or Bichette without major money going out the door. Before we predict which route the Jays are going to take when approaching their pursuits of Tucker and Bichette, it’s important to know what they’re getting in Okamoto. He’s put up some eye-popping numbers throughout his 11 seasons in Japan’s NPB, including a stretch of six straight seasons from 2018-23 where he hit at least 30 homers, and he hasn’t posted an OPS below .800 since his age-21 season in 2017. Aside from the obvious fact that Okamoto has been consistently one of Japan’s best hitters throughout his career, it’s not hard to assume that one of the things the Blue Jays liked most about his game is the way he combines that pop with an ability to avoid swing and miss and put the ball in play. It’s an identity shared by so many Blue Jays hitters, and we just watched the Jays ride that identity to a top-five offense in 2025, and to a World Series berth. There aren’t very many questions about Okamoto’s bat. He’s expected to bring a high floor and fit right into an already dynamic lineup with his strong approach. Defensively, the hope is that Okamoto can be an average defensive third baseman and a well-above-average first baseman. There are also a few whispers that he could fit in a corner outfield spot. Looking at the way the Jays roster is currently built, it wouldn’t be hard to assume they’re pretty happy with where it’s at heading into 2026. They will likely be one of the favourites to win the American League again. To be clear, the Blue Jays almost definitely feel like their roster is close to complete and would feel good about their chances of repeating as American League champions without another big-name acquisition. But if they want to get greedy, there’s still space for the Jays to fit either Bichette or Tucker and push the ceiling of this team as high as it’s ever been. As far as Bichette, the likely scenario, if he were to return, is that it would be as a second baseman, with Andrés Giménez sliding over to shortstop, just as we saw in the World Series. Okamoto will likely be the everyday third baseman, which is going to push Addison Barger into a regular role in right field, with Santander getting the majority of the playing time in left. The Tucker fit is maybe a little bit less clear at first glance. Adding Tucker would leave one of Santander or Barger on the outside looking in when it comes to playing time, unless the rumours of Okamoto’s viability in the outfield are true, and the three of them split two positions, as well as the odd appearance as the designated hitter. In this scenario, Ernie Clement is the everyday second baseman. If I had to bet, a Tucker signing doesn’t come without a Santander trade, but a Bichette reunion could allow the Jays to keep the current roster intact. The good news for Jays fans is that early reporting around the topic is that the team isn't being ruled out of either the Tucker or Bichette market despite the Okamoto signing. To tie a bow on this for now, I don’t think that signing Okamoto necessarily helps the Jays’ chances of signing either Bichette or Tucker, but that’s not to say that either scenario outlined above is impossible. All 30 teams in baseball can make room on their roster for either Bichette or Tucker, including the Blue Jays after signing Okamoto. It’s simply going to come down to which teams make the best offers, as well as the choices of the players. If there’s money still available, it’s hard to make a case against Toronto being one of the most attractive destinations in MLB, with a World Series-ready roster already in place. If you’ve read through this whole article and are still feeling like you have no idea if the Jays are still going to be in the Bichette and Tucker markets, welcome to the MLB offseason! Nobody knows anything until a deal is done. View the full article

If you're feeling open-minded, Bo Bichette is the perfect fit for a Chicago Cubs team struggling to find the right one this winter. They made only passive overtures to infielder Kazuma Okamoto before he signed with the Blue Jays, but they met with Pete Alonso in December, and have had multiple discussions with and about Alex Bregman this offseason. Upgrading their offense—and, specifically, bringing in a solidly above-average right-handed batter to balance and deepen the lineup—is part of Jed Hoyer's offseason plan. Bichette is a unicorn, with a swing unlike that of any other right-handed batter in the league. His steep stroke (37.5° of swing tilt this season) is unusual for righty hitters, but the fact that he also lets the ball travel very deep into the hitting zone before making contact (meeting it 24.5 inches in front of his center of mass) sets him apart even from those otherwise roughly similar. Here are all the other hitters with a swing plane of at least 36° and a contact point no more than 28 inches in front of their frame in 2025: Dillon Dingler Adam Frazier Freddie Freeman Nick Kurtz Brandon Marsh Zach McKinstry Ryan McMahon Jackson Merrill Shohei Ohtani That's a highly varied set of hitters, but they almost all share one trait: left-handedness. Only Dingler is a righty batter. Here's a composite animation of Bichette's swing from last season. It's highly unusual. Bo Bichette 2025.mp4 His extreme counterrotation with the shoulder makes him a lashing line-drive hitter, and his exceptional feel for contact makes him dangerous despite his lack of high-end raw swing speed. This is the kind of player the Cubs like to bring in, when they make a major investment, because he lacks some of the measurables (especially swing speed and power potential) that invite larger-market teams to make bids so high that Chicago loses interest. With Nico Hoerner set to hit free agency after 2026, Bichette also fits the positional and timeline sweet spots for the Cubs. He could play third base this season and second base thereafter; he could stay at third and play alongside Hoerner and Dansby Swanson for another half-decade. He'll only turn 28 years old in March; he has plenty of prime years left. He'd be a plus defender at second and at least an average one at third, even though he was markedly worse than average at shortstop over the last few seasons of his tenure in Toronto. Signing Bichette would get the Cubs out of a tense chess match with Scott Boras. With him in the fold, the team wouldn't need to sweat the rising likelihood that Alex Bregman returns to the Red Sox, and they could trade either Hoerner or Matt Shaw in their pursuit of help in the starting rotation. Bichette would become the team's big financial outlay, and the displacement he would create on their roster would bring them pitching help on a more cost-controlled basis. The rub, of course, is that Bichette is still likely to cost more than the Cubs are willing to pay. He's remained on the market this long and drawn the Cubs' attention at all because the $250-million deal once imagined isn't out there, but he will still get to choose between a deal that would be the richest in Cubs history (likely eclipsing $200 million) or one that would come with massive flexibility and expected value, with a shorter term but multiple opt-outs and an annual average value over $30 million. Hoyer is trying to avoid that grand an outlay, and a source familiar with the team's thinking indicated that they do not view Bichette as the same kind of special case (a confluence of ability and personal trustworthiness) that Swanson was when they signed him to a seven-year deal two winters ago. That doesn't mean they won't sign Bichette to a similar, even larger deal. He's been more consistently productive at the plate than Swanson, and is a year younger than Swanson was when he signed with the team. The Cubs are in a stronger financial and competitive position now than when they signed Swanson. Still, with several other big spenders in on him, Bichette has a robust market. The fit here is perfect. He would unlock some of their most desirable paths forward, not just for 2026 but through the end of the decade. To make it happen, though, Hoyer and company would have to do something uncharacteristic. Their disciplined valuations would have to tell them that the market was a bit too low on the slowish-swinging not-quite-shortstop, and they would have to feel confident that they could execute the other half of a large and complicated double-move, trading young talent for a pitcher whose arrival would dovetail with Bichette's to form the next set of pillars for this ever-evolving roster. View the full article

The Miami Marlins have signed right-hander Jack Ralston to a minor league deal. It only appeared on Miami's transaction log this weekend, but Ralston joined the organization officially back on December 16. Ralston was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals out of UCLA in 2019 and has spent his entire professional career with them until now. Although successful as a starter during his draft year, the seventh-rounder was quickly converted to a reliever. Last season, all 38 of his appearances came out of the bullpen. Splitting time between Double-A and Triple-A, he posted a 3.61 ERA, 28.0 K% and .248 BAA in 57 ⅓ innings pitched. His sky-high 16.7% walk rate held him back from earning a call-up. The Cardinals also declined to select him to their 40-man roster after the season, so he departed as a minor league free agent. Based on 14 innings of Triple-A data, Ralston's fastball averages 93.4 mph. His go-to secondary pitch is a low-80s splitter. The 6'6" righty also has a cutter and a slider in his arsenal. At the age of 28 with such recent experience at the AAA level, Ralston is almost assured of attending big league spring training as a non-roster invitee, but Fish On First is unable to confirm that at the moment. In addition to Ralston, the Marlins have also signed Jesús Bastidas, Evan McKendry, Brian Navarreto, Samuel Vásquez and Tyler Zuber to minor league deals this offseason. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins made a quiet but telling roster move this week, bringing veteran shortstop Orlando Arcia into the organization on a minor-league contract with an invitation to big-league camp. It is not the type of signing that sells jerseys or sparks a hot stove frenzy, but it fits squarely into the front office's plan for 2026. Derek Falvey loves to set a floor for the roster, and Arcia adds depth to a critical position. Arcia arrives in Minnesota with a decade of major-league experience. He split last season between Atlanta and Colorado, logging time with two very different clubs and producing very similar results. By nearly every modern metric, he was among the least productive hitters in baseball with regular playing time. That is not new; he's always been a glove-first shortstop. Now 32, he has been the worst hitter with 800 or more plate appearances over the past two seasons. His 33 wRC+ was both a career low and the second-lowest of any player who took at least 200 trips to the plate in 2025. His glove keeps him employable, but only in a limited role, and only on a team willing to accept the offensive tradeoff. There is some modest platoon usefulness, as his numbers have historically played a bit better against left-handed pitching (his OPS was 50 points higher versus lefties in 2025), but even that comes with caveats. The appeal here is almost entirely about defense, experience, and surviving a long season. Earlier in his career with Milwaukee, Arcia was a plus defender at shortstop, combining for 13 OAA from 2017-18. Those days are gone, but he still grades out as serviceable, and last year he expanded his résumé by appearing at every infield position, including first base. On a roster where flexibility is often the difference between treading water and sinking, a player who can competently move around the diamond carries real value. This signing is best understood through the lens of Brooks Lee. After being thrust into the starting shortstop role following the Carlos Correa trade, Lee handled a challenging assignment with professionalism, even if the results were uneven. Over 139 games, he posted a .236/.285/.370 line for a 79 OPS+. The Twins remain confident in his long-term outlook, but he hasn't shown enough to be trusted as the only true shortstop on an active roster. Behind Lee, the depth chart thins quickly. Ryan Kreidler provides defensive value but makes Arcia look like a robust hitter. Minnesota learned painfully over the last two seasons how quickly an infield can unravel when injuries hit, and Lee isn't even an inspiring first choice. Arcia gives the Twins a veteran option who can start 40 to 60 games if needed, and prevent the position from becoming a nightly adventure. If he breaks camp with the club, he'll have a short leash. If he does not, he becomes a highly experienced presence at Triple-A St. Paul and the first call when things go sideways. This is not a move about upside. It is about competence and protection. The Twins can afford creativity in the corners and even in the outfield. Shortstop is different. Minnesota cannot afford another season in which defensive erosion forces the roster into damage-control mode. Signing Arcia will not fix the lineup, but it might keep a small problem from becoming a big one. Sometimes that is exactly the point. What are your initial impressions of the Arcia signing? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

On Sunday, the Royals on social media announced that they had agreed to a three-year extension with manager Matt Quatraro. Quatraro was entering the final year of his current deal this season, and his extension will not kick in until 2027. His newest deal is guaranteed until 2029, with the Royals holding a club option for 2030. The Royals hired Quatraro to replace previous manager Mike Matheny after the 2022 season. After a rough 56-106 debut season, the former Tampa Bay Rays bench coach has had strong success as Kansas City's skipper. Over the past two years, his teams have finished 86-76 and 82-80, respectively. It is the first time the Royals have had back-to-back winning seasons since 2014 and 2015 under manager Ned Yost, who led the Royals to two AL Pennants and a World Series title. In his first managerial job at the Major League level, Quatraro holds an overall record of 224-262. He led the Royals to the postseason in 2024, sweeping the Baltimore Orioles in two games in the AL Wild Card round before falling to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS. He was named a runner-up for the AL Manager of the Year award in 2024, losing to Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt that season. In addition to Quatraro, the Royals will return bench coach Paul Hoover, lead hitting coach Alec Zumwalt, and pitching coach Brian Sweeney, who have all held those positions since Quatraro took over as manager (Zumwalt was promoted to hitting coach in 2022 under Matheny after they fired previous hitting coach Terry Bradshaw). New coaches on the staff for 2026 include assistant hitting coaches Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames, who come from the Brewers and White Sox, respectively, and assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran, who comes from the Athletics. Former assistant hitting coaches Keoni DeRenne and Joe Dillon were not retained, and former assistant pitching coach Zach Bove took the lead pitching coach position with the White Sox this offseason. View the full article

No deal is close as of Sunday morning, but according to Ken Rosenthal and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Miami Marlins and New York Yankees are currently in talks regarding a possible Edward Cabrera trade. You know Cabrera's situation by now. In 2025, his fifth MLB season, he demonstrated a career-best combination of control and durability. The Dominican right-hander owns a lifetime 4.07 ERA and 25.9 K% in 431 ⅔ innings pitched as a big leaguer. Entering his age-28 season, Cabrera is still three years away from free agent eligibility. On paper, the Yankees already have great starting rotation depth. However, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are each expected to begin the 2026 campaign on the injured list. Re-signing Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are the only offseason moves they've made thus far to address that issue. Talks have progressed to the point that Craig Mish of FanDuel Sports Network says several high-ceiling prospects are headed to Miami if a deal gets done. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald corroborates both reports and adds that the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have shown interest in Cabrera. The San Francisco Giants are another possible suitor, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The timing of these rumors is unsurprising. Japanese star Tatsuya Imai reached an agreement with the Houston Astros earlier this weekend, which ought to open floodgates on what has generally been a slow-moving starting pitching market. View the full article

For the third year running, the Cubs' offseason is coming down to a staring contest between frequent but unhappy collaborators Jed Hoyer and Scott Boras. Boras inflicted a painful loss on Hoyer and company this week, as his client Tatsuya Imai signed a three-year deal with the Astros worth up to $63 million. The Cubs thought they had a deal all but complete with Imai, only to have Boras leverage their last offer into one from Houston that included one of the key provisions on which Hoyer wouldn't budge: an opt-out after 2026. Naturally, Chicago isn't pleased with Boras's tactics, and this isn't the first time in the last few years that that has been true. For any of their objections, though, Boras has two reasonable and forceful rejoinders: They're not ultimately making the strongest bids; they're trying to win free-agent sweepstakes only on their terms; and Where else are they going to go? Last year, Chicago refused to offer Alex Bregman as many opt-outs as the Red Sox did, even though they did propose a longer deal with a higher net present value. They also declined to consider the deferral structure that allowed Bregman and Boras (however misleadingly) to label the deal as being worth $40 million annually. This time around, Chicago wanted Imai, but not on a deal that allowed him to opt out after 2026. While the benefits of deferring money accrue mostly to the team and are a matter more of style than substance, Hoyer's intransigence on certain opt-out opportunities meant that the deals signed by Bregman last winter and Imai this time had expected values at least as high as what the Cubs offered, and greater flexibility from the player's side. It's still understandable that the Cubs feel chapped by Boras's order of operations with Imai, but as Boras and Hoyer both know, giving the agent any kind of cold shoulder is not an option now. One of the reasons why the Cubs were reluctant to consider shorter and higher-AAV structures for Imai is that they want to keep 2026 payroll available for the other top target of their offseason: Bregman, again. Now that they've missed on Imai, if they make a meaningful upgrade to the rotation, it will almost surely have to come in the person of either Zac Gallen or Ranger Suárez. We talked at length about why Suárez holds obvious appeal for the Cubs, and about why they were tied closely to Gallen by a rumor earlier this offseason. The thing is, both are Boras clients, too. Framber Valdez is not in the Cubs' wheelhouse; he's not coming. The team's three top targets in free agency are Bregman, Gallen and Suárez. That leaves Hoyer little leverage in negotiations with Boras, and is one reason why Boras was also happy to steer Imai to Houston: It leaves one of the top landing spots for his other three key free agents hungry. The trade market is an alternative, of course, and the Cubs would just as soon pursue improvement down that road, but discussions with teams like the Nationals (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams) and Marlins (Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara) have gone nowhere recently. A trade for Gore or Cabrera would almost certainly have to be paired with a Bregman signing, making up for the offense lost when the team parts with one of their top young hitters in exchange for a starter. That would only sharpen Hoyer's position on the winter chessboard and leave Boras with even more leverage in that negotiation. In the winter of 2023-24, Hoyer won a showdown with Boras when he got Cody Bellinger back on a three-year deal with a reasonable AAV (and opt-outs after each season). He signed Boras client Matthew Boyd early last winter, and then stayed engaged with the super-agent the rest of the winter about Bregman. Ultimately, though, the Cubs have never signed a Boras client to a deal richer than the $80 million Bellinger could have earned over the full course of his three-year deal. For that matter, Boyd's is the second-richest deal they've struck with him. Boras dislikes the Cubs almost as much as they dislike him at this moment, because they were one of the first big-market teams to consistently block his signature end run to ownership on top-tier free agents, and because they spend so much less than they could and should. Already, it seems clear that the Yankees or Mets will outbid Chicago on Bellinger; the fit there is imperfect, anyway. Bregman could very well return to the Red Sox, though the Cubs remain locked in on him, much as they were at this time last year. There are still enough teams who need a starter to ensure a robust market for Gallen and Suárez, now that their agencymate Imai is out of the way. Hoyer is relentlessly value-focused in his free-agent shopping. That has led to a high batting average on significant investments. He's signed seven players to free-agent deals with eight-figure AAVs, and they've delivered an average of 10.4 runs above average per season during their time with the team on those deals, according to Baseball Reference. That might not sound like a huge win, but it is. Nor does that count Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ, who have averaged over 20 runs above average per year since their salaries crested $10 million. The only below-average season turned in by any player in this cohort was Jameson Taillon's 2023. That said, refusing to go the extra year or the extra dollar to land an even higher tier of talent has kept a relatively low ceiling on the Cubs. If they want to elbow past the Brewers in 2026, they need to tilt their projection at least 40 more runs to the good, and that means either hitting big on one of their young players or making multiple significant additions between now and Opening Day. To do the former, they have to be better at player development than they've yet proved themselves to be. To do the latter, they have to swallow their pride and win a Scott Boras bidding war. View the full article

Baseball is not supposed to be as easy as Byron Buxton made it look at times during the 2025 season. Even the best hitters in the world need a little help from batted ball luck, sequencing, and timing for numbers to truly pop. For the Minnesota Twins, several hitters posted surface-level results that outpaced what underlying metrics suggested should have happened. That does not mean those performances were flukes, but it does provide valuable context as we look ahead to 2026. To frame the discussion, the league-wide average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while the average expected wOBA came in slightly higher at .315. wOBA is designed to measure overall offensive value by weighing the quality of contact alongside strikeouts and walks. Expected wOBA uses batted ball data to estimate what a hitter should have produced based on how hard and at what angles the ball was hit. When wOBA significantly outpaces expected wOBA, it often points toward overachievement that may be difficult to repeat. Luke Keaschall Keaschall posted a .363 wOBA in 2025, despite an expected mark of .323. That gap of roughly forty points stands out quickly. The underlying reasons are pretty straightforward when digging into his batted ball profile. Keaschall did not barrel the baseball often, finishing with a 5.2% Barrel rate. That is well below what you would typically expect from a hitter producing at that level. Where Keaschall made his money was against offspeed pitches. He slugged .556 against them and actually outperformed his expected numbers by +.122 xwOBA compared to his wOBA in that pitch bucket. That suggests a combination of good pitch recognition and favorable outcomes on balls that weren't always crushed. Looking ahead to 2026, some offensive pullback feels likely. Still, Keaschall does not need to repeat a near .360 wOBA to be valuable. If he tightens up the quality of contact even marginally, he can remain a productive bat who helps the lineup reach the next level. Alan Roden Roden is an interesting case because the majority of his at-bats came in Toronto. Acquired as part of the Louis Varland trade, Roden appeared in just 12 games for the Twins. For the season, he finished with a .249 wOBA, compared to an expected mark of .225, a gap of about 24 points. Roden struggled to hit the ball with authority, posting a 2.0% Barrel rate. Much of his contact was on the softer side, which generally caps offensive upside. However, his biggest separation between results and expectations came against breaking pitches. That is where he hit both of his home runs and most of his extra-base hits, outperforming his expected numbers by +.089 in that area. The 2026 outlook is more optimistic than the Twins sample alone would suggest. Roden profiles nicely as a fourth outfielder and has the defensive ability to back up Buxton in center field. There is also real offensive upside here, as evidenced by his 151 wRC+ at Triple-A last season. If that production translates even partially, Roden could carve out a meaningful role. Byron Buxton Buxton’s 2025 season featured a .367 wOBA and a .348 expected mark, a difference of just under twenty points. While smaller than the other gaps on this list, it still qualifies as overachievement given how high the baseline already is. The reasons are primarily tied to Buxton doing Buxton things. He punishes fastballs, producing a wOBA that was 32 points higher than his expected output against them. He also continues to hit the ball extremely hard, posting a 53.8% Hard Hit rate that places him among the elite in baseball. His expected slugging percentage has topped .500 in each of the last two seasons, which helps explain why his offensive floor is so high. Replicating his 2025 totals will not be easy. Some dip in production is a reasonable expectation. However, the Twins' bigger goal is availability. If Buxton can play more than 100 games for a third straight season, something he has yet to do in his career, even a slightly reduced offensive line would be a massive boost to the roster. Overachieving seasons are not inherently bad things. They often represent players maximizing their strengths and benefiting from favorable conditions along the way. For the Twins, understanding where production outpaced expectations helps set realistic goals for 2026. Keaschall, Roden, and Buxton each bring different skill sets and different risk profiles, but all three showed how impactful things can be when results break the right way. Which of these hitters do you think is most likely to beat the projections again in 2026, and who worries you the most when it comes to regression? Let us know your thoughts in the comments. View the full article

On January 1st, Derek Carty's The BAT X projections went live on Fangraphs, much to the fanfare of fantasy baseball players and fans everywhere. For those unfamiliar with The BAT X, Carty defines his projection system in an article on The Athletic from May 19th, 2025. Here is a summary of The BAT X in his words: The incorporation of Statcast data is a significant departure from the original BAT projection system, making The BAT X a bit more accurate and comprehensive. While the BAT projections are still live and available on Fangraphs, it is more commonplace for baseball fans and fantasy baseball managers to rely more on Carty's latest projection system. I have already broken down hitters, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers in my latest series on Royals projections via Steamer, which typically is one of the first projections to drop in the offseason. Thus, I am not going to do the same with the BAT X, especially since only hitter projections are available on Fangraphs right now. That said, as with any set of projections, there are some intriguing data points regarding certain players' outlooks for the upcoming season. So, in this post, I am going to focus on four hitters and my takeaways from their BAT X projections for 2026. Below is a table of all Royals hitters that the BAT X profiles in its projections, with a sortable data table available at this link. I have organized hitters by Fantasy Points (FPTS), mainly because BAT X is better suited to fantasy baseball purposes given its offensive focus. Even for non-fantasy baseball people, organizing by FPTS gives readers an idea of who the most productive hitters will be for the Royals in 2026, based on BAT X. Let's take a look at those four hitters and what Royals fans should be expecting for 2026, based on this latest projection set. Expectations More Modest For Caglianone In my Steamer projections post, Jac Caglianone seemed like the most significant rebound candidate for the Royals in 2026. After hitting seven home runs and posting a 46 wRC+ in 232 plate appearances in 2025, Steamer projected Caglianone to hit 16 home runs and post a 110 wRC+ in 418 plate appearances. That is a remarkable improvement and would make him one of the Royals' best hitters. The BAT X is a little more cautious in their projection of Caglianone. In 514 projected plate appearances, they still project the former Florida product to hit 16 home runs and collect 61 RBI. However, they also project an 85 wRC+, a 25-point difference from his Steamer projection. What's interesting about Caglianone's difference in projection is that there isn't much difference in their projected plate discipline metrics. Steamer is projecting a 0.36 BB/K ratio while the BAT X is projecting a 0.32 mark. Obviously, Steamer is higher, but the difference is negligible. The most significant difference is in BABIP, as BAT X is projecting a BABIP of .272 while Steamer is projecting a .286. That not only affects wRC+, but also batting average (.227 to Steamer's .255) and OPS (.678 to .769). The BAT X does account for launch angle, and Caglianone's LA Sweet-Spot% of 29.7% ranked in the bottom percentile of the league. His radial chart below also shows that, while the rookie outfielder hit the ball hard most of the time, he hit it too often on the ground, resulting in more outs than base hits. Thus, the BAT X believes that Caglianone will not make enough gains just yet in launch angle to improve his BABIP and, therefore, overall production. However, the Royals and Caglianone have been aware of these MLB struggles with launch angle, and his 14.1-degree average launch angle in Triple-A was 10 degrees higher than his average in the Majors (4.1 degrees). If Caglianone can see more launch on batted balls in 2026, especially early on, he could outperform his BAT X projection and put up something closer to his Steamer outlook. Could There Be A Battle Between Isbel and Rave in Center Field? Two players who also stuck out in interesting ways were outfielders Kyle Isbel and John Rave. Now, Isbel is a strong defensive player, and his +10 FRV ranked third among all Royals fielders last year with 25 or more innings. However, Rave wasn't that much worse, as he put up a +3 FRV in only 432 innings, 600 fewer innings than Isbel. It's possible that Rave could've matched Isbel over a similar sample of innings. Now, the reason I bring this up is that the difference between Isbel and Rave's BAT X projections is minuscule, with Rave holding a slight advantage, as seen below. Isbel: 480 PA, 7 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 11 SB, 67 wRC+, 370.1 FPTS Rave: 144 PA, 3 HR, 15 R, 12 RBI, 3 SB, 68 wRC+, 121 FPTS Obviously, Isbel has better counting numbers, but he also has 336 more plate appearances than Rave. Conversely, the 28-year-old outfielder has a slightly higher wRC+. Thus, like the defensive metrics, it's possible that there would be less of a gap between Isbel and Rave offensively with more Rave plate appearances. When looking at the Statcast metrics of both players, they look pretty similar from a year ago. Here's a glimpse at Isbel's via TJ Stats. Now, let's take a look at Rave's. Isbel makes more contact, but chases a lot more and doesn't pull the ball as much. On the flip side, Rave whiffs more, but chases less and pulls the ball more. Considering the new Royals' hitting staff's philosophy seems to be to minimize chasing, Rave may fit the Royals' lineup better than Isbel in 2026, solely on offensive profile. Now, I'm not saying that the Royals should bury Isbel on the bench. Instead, it wouldn't hurt JJ Picollo to explore the trade market to see what kind of value Isbel may have. Players with similar defensive-first profiles like Michael A. Taylor have been widely sought, so it's possible that trading Isbel away could help upgrade their farm system or give them some depth in the corner outfield position, where more power is needed. Again, I doubt the Royals do this, especially given Isbel's defensive value and his standing in the clubhouse (he's one of the longest-tenured Royals on the roster). Still, if Rave has a hot Spring Training, a trade involving Isbel may be something to keep an eye on before Opening Day. Expect an MVP-Caliber Season From Witt It was a "down season" for Bobby Witt Jr., which is crazy to say after he posted an 8.0 fWAR season in 2025. However, he posted a 10.5 fWAR season in 2024, and his 130 wRC+ last year was 39 points lower than his mark during his AL MVP-runner-up campaign. Fair or not, Witt's incredible 2024 season will always be the standard for him every season. The good thing is that on the offensive end, the BAT X expects some bounce-back from Witt. In 665 plate appearances, Witt is projected to hit 30 home runs, score 106 runs, collect 96 RBI, steal 37 bases, and post a 135 wRC+. All those marks are better than his Steamer projections, including wRC+ (Steamer projects a 133 mark). The BAT X also projects a .230 ISO, a 25-point increase from his 2025 ISO and 11 points above his Steamer-projected ISO. That kind of power projection is good to see, especially since that seemed to be an area where Witt regressed a season ago. A reason for the optimistic BAT X projections for Witt is that the Statcast profile still was stellar from the Royals' franchise star last year. Here's a look at his Stacast Summary profile via TJ Stats, and notice the amount of red, especially in the exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit categories. The only blemish with Witt's profile is that he chases a reasonable amount (30th percentile O-Swing%), and he could do a better job of pulling the ball (14th percentile). Conversely, he did pull the ball in the air 13.7% of the time, which did put him in the 43rd percentile. It's still not up to superstar standards, but it's a step in the right direction and suggests some improvement could be on the way in 2026. For the Royals to make the postseason in 2026, Witt needs to be closer to his 2024 self offensively while still maintaining his 2025 defense (which netted him a second-straight Gold Glove award). If the Pull Air% continues to improve, I think it's not out of the question that the player expected to produce 1,009.2 FPTS by BAT X could be even better in 2026. The BAT X is projecting a good baseline for him in this upcoming season. With the proper adjustments to his pitch recognition and ability to pull the ball (which I think Connor Dawson and Marcus Thames can help him out with), he could push for another AL MVP run against the Yankees' Aaron Judge. That, in turn, could make the Royals not only playoff-bound but possible contenders, especially with a deeper roster in 2026 than in 2024. View the full article

The Cubs outfield has the possibility of including any of the following debut players: Kevin Alcantara, Owen Caissie, Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki. Who will be here in two years? What about five years? We break down the players, their skillsets, contract complications, and more. View the full article

In just over five weeks, pitchers and catchers will report, signaling the start of spring training. By then, organizations will begin to finalize their Opening Day rosters, and fans should have a pretty good idea as to how competitive their favorite team will be in the upcoming year. For many teams, the biggest moves have already been made. A flurry of activity happened at or around the Winter Meetings, and organizations have already committed to over $1 billion in free-agent contracts. The Blue Jays have been the most aggressive in locking down talent, notably signing Dylan Cease ($210 million, 7 years), Kazuma Okamoto ($60 million, 4 years), and Cody Ponce ($30 million, 3 years). Most other teams have made at least one big free agent acquisition or trade, but the Brewers have remained comparatively quiet. The only free agent Milwaukee has signed is Akil Baddoo, and the only trade they’ve made thus far sent Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to the Royals in exchange for Angel Zerpa. Neither move is expected to move the needle, which begs the question: What are they waiting for? It’s important to remember that this is how Milwaukee has operated in the offseason for quite some time now. The Brewers have never been huge fans of pursuing big-name free agents, who are often the first to get pulled off the board. They’re quite expensive, and the sheer amount of bidders for any given player often drives prices past the financial comfort zone of the front office. Many of the largest contracts in franchise history were extensions for players like Christian Yelich and Ryan Braun, making Lorenzo Cain’s $80 million contract signed in 2018 the largest free-agent deal Milwaukee has ever inked. Instead of simply throwing money at their problems, the Brewers love to find undervalued assets and bid low on them, relying on their outstanding internal player development and taking low-risk bets on players that others have already glossed over. In order to do this, deals are often struck late when the negotiating leverage shifts away from the player and towards any club willing to give them a chance. A few recent notable examples of late free agent signings include: Jose Quintana: Signed on March 5, 2025 Brandon Woodruff: Signed on February 21, 2024 Rhys Hoskins: Signed on January 26, 2024 Wade Miley: Signed on January 9, 2023 None of these four players was highly sought-after, and each came with an asterisk. For Woodruff and Hoskins, it was injury-related. It was understood that Woodruff would miss the entire 2024 season and part of the 2025 season, while Hoskins had just missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in spring training. For Miley and Quintana, it was age. Both starting pitchers were 36 years old when they signed their deals and seemed to be in the twilight of their big-league careers. These players were effective but only if you looked past the unappealing circumstances on the surface and were willing to take a chance (Hoskins may be the only exception, but hey, you can’t be right 100% of the time, that’s not fair for the other teams). Another factor that’s likely contributing to the Brewers’ sluggish pace of roster revamping is that their needs don't align well with what they’re willing to pay. There aren’t any major holes in the current roster and, barring a trade of someone like Freddy Peralta, all of the biggest contributors to the team’s success in 2025 will be along for the ride in 2026. However, if there were one aspect that could use some love, it’d be finding power in the lineup. In 2025, they ranked deceptively high in slugging percentage because their .258 batting average placed third in MLB, but they ranked 22nd in home runs (166) and 25th in ISO (.145). If Andrew Vaughn somehow manages to maintain his 141 OPS+ over the course of a full season, it may not be a problem, but precedent would suggest that outcome is unlikely. But these days, power doesn’t come cheap. Kyle Schwarber, an archetypal three-true-outcome player, returned to the Phillies for $150 million over five years. Pete Alonso signed a similar contract with the Orioles for $155 million over five years. There aren’t many slugging free agents left, and those that are available, like Kyle Tucker, are absolutely out of the Brewers’ price range. It’s a similar story with starting pitching. Milwaukee has a considerable number of young arms in the rotation. Still, if they want to pursue a veteran arm to back up Peralta, it would cost a considerable amount, either in cash or prospects. This seems like a big reason why they’ll look to retain Peralta this year, especially since he’ll be paid just $8 million to be the team’s ace. And so, their patience is understandable given their strategy. They’ll continue to wait until the marquee names are snatched up at a premium or full price, paving the way for the not great but still good players to be slowly and surely marked down with each passing week. Even if they don’t do anything, their roster remains solid, and their young core will only continue to improve. The one caveat to all this is that the other teams in the division aren’t quite so passive. The Cardinals have already made a handful of trades (albeit to enter an apparent rebuild), and the Cubs have made quite a few small moves to reinforce their bullpen. The most surprising organization has been the Pirates, who, aside from being interested in players like Schwarber, Josh Naylor, and Okamoto, picked up Ryan O'Hearn and Gregory Soto in free agency before also acquiring Brandon Lowe in a three-team trade. None of these moves is necessarily enough for the Brewers to fear for their position atop the NL Central yet, but at the same time, they can’t be totally ignored. Still, the front office tends to march to the beat of its own drum, regardless of what its closest rivals are up to. Realistically, the organization is likely biding its time and waiting to get what it needs at the right price. It may not happen soon, but something will happen eventually. Probably. View the full article

Did the Jays just get their man? A potential big bat, locked in at a reduced rate. Reports say the Jays’ agreement with Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto, a six-time NPB All-Star and three-time home run champion with the Yomiuri Giants, is valued at well under the four-year initially projected worth of $78.5 million when he entered the market. The deal positions Okamoto to become Toronto’s primary third baseman and adds his high-contact, high-power, right-handed bat to a lineup that continues to be aggressively retooled after the club’s success last season. While the terms won’t be made public until the deal is officially announced, Associated Press reported it is for four years, $60 million total, including a $5 million signing bonus, a $7 million salary in 2026, and $16 million in each of the next three seasons. Okamoto’s negotiating window was set to close on Sunday at 5pm ET, so there were many factors at play as the clock ticked down. Okamoto, who is 29 years old, has been one of NPB’s most consistent power hitters for nearly a decade. Beginning with a breakout as a 22-year-old in 2018, he logged six consecutive 30-homer seasons from 2018–2023, capped by a career-high 41 home runs in 2023. Across 11 seasons with Yomiuri, he posted a .277/.361/.521 slash line with 248 home runs and 717 RBI. He has also won Golden Gloves in Japan at both third base and first base, highlighting a defensive profile that doesn’t hurt his offensive attributes. His ability to consistently pull and lift the ball should position him well at Rogers Centre, and a low strikeout rate also aligns him with the Jays’ contact-first philosophy. Whether or not Okamoto can truly be the Toronto middle of the line-up answer will play out next season as he adjusts to MLB pitching. The four-year deal includes a $5 million signing bonus, a $7 million salary in 2026, and $16 million in each remaining year of the contract. Under the posting agreement with the NPB, the Jays are also on the hook for $10,875,000 that will go directly to Okamoto's now-former team, the Yomiuri Giants. The addition of Okamoto most likely means that he will push Ernie Clement to second base and take the majority of starts at third. He may also spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first when Vladdy needs a day off. There was some talk over the past few days that his ability to play left field might have made him more enticing to a team like the Jays (who value versatility and flexibility among their position players). Okamoto’s blend of contact quality, plate discipline, and pull-side power fits a Jays offense that, in 2025, embraced bat-to-ball improvements as a pathway to sustainable run production. Scouting reports say that because of his contact-first approach, Okamoto’s transition to MLB pitching might be smoother than that of other Japanese players, including Munetaka Murakami, who recently signed with the White Sox. Since news broke of Okamoto’s signing, social media has been flooded with 2023 World Baseball Classic highlights, where he homered in the championship game against the United States. It will be that kind of high-impact production that the Jays will be hoping to see over the next four years. While he is known for his power and plate control, some scouts cautioned about his ability to handle velocity. With that said, the way Toronto prepared hitters in 2025 bodes well for Okamoto’s transition to MLB. The deal for Okamoto is still good for the Jays when it comes to the finances. Even when you add in the nearly $11 million posting fee with the $60 million deal, at $70.875 million, it is still nearly $10 million below the projected salary when the window opened. By concentrating the heaviest salary years after 2026, the Jays can push their payroll commitments as broader roster moves resolve in the years to come. A club-friendly $7 million first-year salary for a middle-of-the-order bat is a cap-friendly entry point that suggests the Jays might still be able to nab one more big bat if they choose to do so. Whether you choose to believe it or not, this deal is a value play for the Jays. If Okamoto can produce, then it's gravy. If not, it isn’t as much of a negative hit on the payroll as, say, the Anthony Santander deal from a year ago. Most analysts are slotting Okamoto in the 5-7 range of the Jays’ lineup for Opening Day. His ability to handle first base and even left field on occasion creates opportunities for John Schneider to manage rest days and matchups without compromising offense. For a team that mixed and matched across corners in 2025, this is more than marginal value. Okamoto turns 30 during the 2026 season, making him a bit of an anomaly for international free agents. The risk is that adaptation must happen quickly to fully realize the real value in his four-year deal. The upside is that his experience and seemingly refined approach may minimize the downside. Last season, despite being sidelined with an elbow injury, Okamoto still managed 15 home runs in under 80 games. A healthy Okamoto, if he adjusts quickly to the majors, might be able to return to a form that saw him log six straight 30-homer seasons between 2018 and 2023. If anything, this signing removes the pressure that was percolating for the Jays’ front office. If Bo Bichette elects to sign elsewhere, then the Jays' infield is now set. If Bichette re-signs, then the front office can be creative in finding a new home for Clement or Andrés Giménez. As for Kyle Tucker, the finances of this deal still keep the Jays in the conversation. Waiting to sign Okamoto until the portal window was nearly closed demonstrates that he wasn’t their first choice (or the first choice of any other MLB team), but the deal the Jays managed to get done does address some needs and might indicate the team isn’t done with their off-season wheeling and dealing just yet. View the full article

The 2025 season was another frustrating chapter for the Minnesota Twins. After another disappointing finish, a brief poll of fans might include nearly everyone on the roster when asked who underachieved at the plate. Royce Lewis struggled to stay on the field. Matt Wallner could not recapture his earlier impact. A slew of other players fell short of expectations as well. Still, when digging into the underlying data, the totals for three hitters are hard to ignore because the gap between results and the quality of contact tells a very different story. League-wide context helps frame the discussion. MLB average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while average xwOBA checked in at .315. For those unfamiliar, wOBA is a catch-all metric that values the quality of contact along with strikeouts and walks. At the same time, xwOBA uses Statcast inputs like exit velocity and launch angle to estimate what should have happened. When a hitter shows a significant positive gap between xwOBA and wOBA, it often points toward bad luck rather than a broken approach. Edouard Julien Julien posted a .286 wOBA compared to a .330 xwOBA, creating a massive +.044 difference. The most glaring issue came against offspeed pitches, where he showed a 165-point gap between actual and expected production. His .208 slugging percentage versus a .471 expected slugging against those offerings underscores just how much damage failed to show up in the box score. Julien continued to hit the ball hard with a 12.2 Barrel percentage and a 39.0 LA-Sweet Spot rate, both strong indicators of sustainable offense. Looking ahead to 2026, Julien’s elite plate discipline remains his calling card. He chased just 19.8 percent of pitches, which should continue to put him in favorable counts. If he can get back to punishing fastballs the way he did during his rookie season, the production should rebound. With no minor league options remaining, Julien will need to prove he can provide consistent value to the big league roster. Since he doesn’t have a defensive home, his production must come at the plate. Kody Clemens Clemens finished 2025 with a .307 wOBA and a .331 xwOBA, a +.024 gap that hints at some missed opportunities. The Twins gave him extended playing time for the first time in his career and largely liked what they saw. Clemens made solid contact with a 12.0 Barrel percentage and a 35.9 Sweet-Spot rate. Fastballs were the pitch type whose results lagged most behind expectations, with a 32-point difference. He saw heaters more than 58 percent of the time, so doing more damage there could quickly lift his overall line. The outlook for 2026 is more complicated. Minnesota discussed using Clemens as the regular first baseman before signing Josh Bell. Clemens is the better defender at the position, so there is still a path for both players to share the lineup, with Bell sliding to designated hitter. His theoretical defensive versatility will get him playing time, and he was one of the team’s clubhouse leaders in the second half. With a 96 OPS+, Clemens already profiles as close to a league-average bat. Closing the gap between actual and expected numbers could push him firmly into that tier. James Outman Outman’s surface numbers were rough, highlighted by a .237 wOBA and a .267 xwOBA for a +.030 difference. He arrived at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Brock Stewart away, and most of his big league plate appearances in 2025 came with Minnesota. Outside of his excellent 16.9 Barrel percentage, many of his Statcast metrics lagged behind league norms. That makes his minor league track record impossible to ignore. At Triple-A last season, Outman posted a .945 OPS with a 131 wRC+, showing a hitter who still knows how to punish mistakes. For 2026, roster status looms large. Outman is out of minor league options, meaning the Twins must either find him a role or risk losing him. His ability to cover all three outfield spots makes him a natural fit as the team’s fourth outfielder. If even a portion of his Triple-A production carries over, the Twins could uncover sneaky value. Underachievement defined much of the Twins offense in 2025, but Julien, Clemens, and Outman stand out because the data suggests they deserved better outcomes. Expected metrics are not guarantees, yet they often serve as early indicators of rebound potential. If luck swings back toward the mean in 2026, this trio could quietly reshape the lineup. Which of these hitters do you believe is most likely to bounce back next season, or is there another Twin you would add to this list? Let us know your thoughts in the comments. And stop by later today to see who the Twins' three luckiest hitters were. View the full article

Kazuma Okamoto has chosen where he'll begin his MLB career. Will he enjoy early success there? The stats --- basic and fancy --- say that he should. Okamoto is heading to Canada after agreeing to a contract with the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday (per ESPN's Jeff Passan). The agreement was completed one day ahead of the deadline for him to sign with an MLB club. The 29-year-old corner infielder was posted last November by Nippon Professional Baseball's most celebrated franchise, the Yomiuri Giants. Now that he's a big-leaguer, it's time to examine how good he can be out of the chute. Let's get into it, by the numbers. Kazuma Okamoto scouting report YouTuber @sshoharry put together a montage (set to cool Yomiuri cheer music) of Okamoto's swing in each year of his NPB career. Note the consistency of the leg kick and takeaway, both which help to get the bat through the zone: Those mechanics led to some very healthy metrics in 2025: 80.4 contact rate 32.1 hard-hit rate 66.8 air percentage 47.2 pull rate 112.2 mph max velo 5.1 home run rate 8.8 swinging strike percentage 24.2 chase rate 4.0 pitches seen per PA Sources: FanGraphs, Yakyu Cosmopolitan The contact rate was a career high. The swinging strike rate was a career low. The air percentage was tied for second in NPB's Central League among hitters with at least 250 PAs. His fielding metrics at first base were good enough to earn him a Fielding Bible Award from Sports Info Solutions in 2024. He's seen as serviceable at third base, and that is presumably where he'll play in Toronto, across from first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In this case, however, the glove is a lot less important than the bat. Before last year, he was extremely durable, missing just eight games total from 2018 through 2024. But he missed half the 2025 season after suffering an elbow injury last May. Okamoto was on his way to a career year, too. He finished the season with a career-best 210 wRC+ and .454 wOBA to go with 15 home runs in 293 plate appearances. His walk and K rates were identical (11.3 percent each). Lastly, he displayed stellar intangibles. He was the Giants' captain in the latter years of his tenure in Tokyo. Will Okamoto hit MLB pitching? Well, he did it in Japan, albeit in small doses. Okamoto faced Shota Imanaga, Roki Sasaki, Robert Suarez and a handful of other current and ex-MLBers over the years. Some of the highlights: March 2022: In an NPB exhibition against the Seibu Lions, Okamoto rifled a grand slam off a then 20-year-old Sasaki: For good measure, he went deep against Sasaki in the regular season. March 2023: Playing for Japan in the World Baseball Classic, he ripped a hanger by Joe La Sorsa for a clutch three-run homer in the quarterfinals: March 2023: In the WBC final against the USA, he crushed a Kyle Freeland cutter to put Japan up 3-1. The blast turned out to be the game-winning hit for the champs: May 2023: Against Yokohama, he got on top of an 0-2 fastball from Trevor Bauer in a big way: July 2023: At home against Yokohama, he jumped all over a fastball from Imanaga, who struck out 15 that night. August 2024: Against Hiroshima, he turned around 95 by ex-Rangers left-hander Taylor Hearn for a go-ahead, three-run tank in the eighth inning. It was the only long ball Hearn allowed in 35 NPB innings that season: March 2025: In the preseason Tokyo Series, he sat on 98 from Cubs reliever Daniel Palencia and drilled it into the gap for a two-run double: Who is the best MLB comp for Okamoto? The obvious one is Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Like Okamoto, he's a rarity: a right-handed-hitting slugger from Japan. Of course, it's not a perfect match. First, Suzuki had a superior slash line and walk rate in Japan. Second, he came to MLB at 27, while Okamoto is coming over at 29. Third, they play different positions. But there is one area that can be compared: Okamoto's K rate. How much will it increase as he faces the world's best pitching? Suzuki went from 16.5 percent in his final NPB season to 24.7 percent as a rookie, followed by 22.3 percent, 27.4 percent and 25.2 percent the next three years. Okamoto had a 17.7 percent career K rate in Japan. As for a comp among MLB corner infielders: Based on Okamoto's projected 2026 production (see below), the closest to a fit is Giants third baseman Matt Chapman, Kazuma Okamoto MLB offensive projection Models for 2026 are consistent; they rate him as a slightly above-average hitter: Source PA wRC+ wOBA HR THE BAT 462 114 .333 21 THE BAT X 462 114 .333 21 FanGraphs 462 110 .329 19 Steamer 434 110 .329 18 For reference, Suzuki posted a 118 wRC+ as a rookie in 2022 and then exceeded that total each of the next three seasons. Okamoto's graph line might not climb the same way as he ages, but the initial plot points may land in the general area. View the full article

The start of a new year is supposed to bring optimism, fresh goals, and the belief that this time things will be different. For the Minnesota Twins, that optimism usually lasts until about mid-April, when the weather is bad, the bats are cold, and everyone is already checking the wild-card standings. Still, resolutions are important, and if nothing else, they give us something to laugh about while waiting for baseball to matter again. With that in mind, here are some New Year’s resolutions for key members of the Twins organization as they brace for another season of vibes, missed opportunities, and selective optimism. Tom Pohlad: Learning Where the Checkbook Is Taking over the reins from Joe Pohlad means Tom now gets the privilege of being blamed for everything. His resolution is simple in theory and impossible in practice: figure out how to look like a modern baseball owner without actually spending like one. This includes mastering the art of saying the words 'competitive' and 'sustainable' in the same sentence while carefully avoiding any firm commitments. Bonus points if he can attend a game in April and convince fans that better days are coming without specifying when. Derek Falvey: Turning Water Into Wins on a Budget Falvey resolves to once again prove that a roughly $100 million payroll can survive in a league where that figure barely buys a top-tier starter elsewhere. The goal is to outsmart teams that simply buy stars by finding value in versatility, depth, and guys who once had a good month in 2019. If the Twins sneak into contention, Falvey will be praised as a genius. If not, the team can always trade away its stars at next year’s trade deadline. Derek Shelton: Watching From Afar and Doing the Math After being fired by Pittsburgh, Shelton now has the unique experience of watching his former team potentially outspend the Twins. His resolution is to process that information without laughing too loudly. Somewhere along the way, he might also remind people that managing with limited resources builds character, even if it does not build playoff rosters. At the very least, he can take comfort in knowing he escaped before Paul Skenes is traded to the Yankees. Byron Buxton: Solving the MVP Equation With a Calculator and a Calendar Buxton’s New Year’s resolution is less about baseball skill and more about advanced math and load management. The goal is to finish top-10 in MVP voting while appearing in just enough games to qualify without angering the baseball gods. This will require perfectly timed hot streaks, national TV highlights, and at least one stretch in which he carries the team for two weeks before being immediately listed as day-to-day. If executed properly, Buxton can secure his contract bonus, remind everyone of his ceiling, and still leave fans wondering what might have happened if he had played another 30 games. Royce Lewis: Becoming Indispensable Before the Next Spreadsheet Update Lewis enters the year with a resolution to force his way back into the Twins’ long-term plans before his name becomes a movable asset in trade deadline rumors. The strategy is straightforward. Stay healthy just long enough to mash in high-leverage situations and make any conversation about his future deeply uncomfortable for the front office. Ideally, Lewis will produce at a level where fans argue he should be untouchable while decision makers quietly check his service time and injury history. If all goes well, he will be both central to the future and perpetually discussed as expendable, which is the true mark of a Twins cornerstone. T.C. Bear: Bringing the Energy to a Quiet Ballpark Perhaps the toughest resolution of all belongs to T.C. Bear. His task is to get fewer than one thousand fans fired up during an early-season weekday game when the temperature is barely above freezing, and half the crowd is there for the free beanie. With season tickets expected to crater, the mascot will need new routines, new jokes, and possibly new pyrotechnics. If he can get a genuine roar out of that crowd, he deserves a roster spot. Resolutions are easy to make and more challenging to keep, especially in baseball, where patience is preached, and urgency is avoided. The Twins will enter another season promising flexibility, smart decisions, and internal improvement. Maybe some of these resolutions will stick, and maybe they will quietly fade by summer. Either way, the calendar has turned, and hope has been renewed, which in Minnesota might be the most reliable tradition of all. View the full article

The New York Post reports that the Yankees are among the teams looking to get in on the market for free-agent infielder Bo Bichette. For the Brewers, this could be a chance to clear a couple of logjams, and perhaps get a short-term power boost. In 2025, Jazz Chisholm Jr. split time between third base and second base for the Yankees, while also handling some of the duties in center field for the Yankees in 2024. With Miami, he played second base and center field and also saw action at shortstop. He has a left-handed bat that has seen a power surge since he left Miami (42 home runs in 638 at-bats) and has some speed and baserunning skills as well (49 out of 59 in stolen bases). At first glance, Chisholm could give Milwaukee a brief power boost to give Top-100 prospects like Cooper Pratt and Jesus Made time to season in the minor leagues, while allowing the Brewers to make some adjustments in the infield to account for Joey Ortiz’s offensive struggles. He also adds power to a lineup that could use it. That left-handed bat could also thrive in American Family Field, as suggested by the power jump when he left Miami (Christian Yelich had a similar power boost when he came to Milwaukee). Both the power bat and the versatility of Chisholm would help Milwaukee in the course of 2026. For the Yankees, trading Chisholm would clear some payroll and, more importantly, roster space for the Yankees to get Bichette. There is a big question for Milwaukee: Who should be offered to seal the deal and get Chisholm in a Brewers jersey? The answer might seem steep, but it could well be worth it. The Brewers should offer third baseman Brock Wilken and outfielder Braylon Payne to the Yankees. While both of them are in the Brewer Fanatic Top 20, they may also be the best options for Milwaukee to deal at this time. We can start with Wilken, the team’s first-round pick in the 2023 MLB draft. Over two seasons at Double-A Biloxi, he’s hit 32 doubles and 35 home runs despite a scary injury in the 2024 season. However, in 695 at-bats, he’s struck out 235 times – a 33.8% strikeout rate. While he’s also drawn 132 walks, his 3TO profile is not exactly the type of thing that fits the offense that Pat Murphy has assembled. His lack of speed on the basepaths is another glaring omission from the type of profile the Brewers used to great regular-season success in 2024 and 2025. Wilken stole only three bases in those two seasons. Wilken’s defense is also suspect to a degree, and he is arguably better suited for first base. Milwaukee had Blake Burns as one option at the cold corner, with Tyler Black another potential option, and Jake Bauers and Andrew Vaughn likely to handle the bulk of the playing time in 2026. It won’t be the first time the Crew used a recent first-round pick for a rental (their 2007 first-round pick, Matt LaPorta, was the centerpiece of the midseason deal that brought CC Sabathia to Milwaukee). The other piece of the deal, Braylon Payne, the Brewers’ first-round pick from 2024, might be tougher to part with. Still, in his first full professional season, while he flashed signs of a dynamic bat across 77 games at Single-A Carolina, he also struck out in 35.7% of his at-bats. While Payne stole 31 bases and has excellent defense, the Brewers are very deep in center field (Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Steward Berroa, and Brandon Lockridge all saw action for the Brewers in center field in 2025 and are on the 40-man roster, while Black, Turang, and Yelich are among Brewers with past experience). Payne, who will be just 19 on Opening Day 2026, could be a fast riser, and he did have some bad injury luck in 2025; still, the Brewers have to consider that Luis Lara and Jose Anderson may still be ahead of him in the minors, in addition to all of their options at the major-league level. To balance things out, Milwaukee may want to ask for a low-level prospect or two, like utility player Hans Montero or left-handed reliever Kevin Centeno, and some international bonus money. The Brewers also get a “conditional” draft pick, depending on how well Chisholm does. Do you think the Brewers should make a Jazz Chisholm deal with the Bronx Bombers? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner finds himself the subject of trade rumors as the team continues to swing and miss on free-agent targets. Should the Cubs actually try to deal one of their best, most consistent players this offseason? View the full article

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello finds himself the subject of trade rumors following the team's rotation overhaul. Will the Sox genuinely consider trading one of their best young arms? View the full article

Owen and Jesse break down the Tyler Rogers signing before digging into the slow-moving free agent position player market, analyzing Alex Bregman's potential fit with the Jays, as well as digging into Bo Bichette and Kyle Tucker's markets. They also look at the Jays' AL East rivals and discuss the Baltimore Orioles' additions of Pete Alonso and Shane Baz, as well as the New York Yankees' missing out on Tatsuya Imai. The guys finish up by listing New Year's resolutions for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, Dylan Cease, and Anthony Santander. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

I am very fond of numbers, statistics and just the figures themselves. Stats can often help describe the success or failure of a sports team. The figures themselves, meanwhile, can be part of an identity. After all, when it comes to sports, who do you think of when you see 23 or 12 or 42 or 99? But for most athletes, the uniform number can have a deeper meaning, mostly personal. Jersey numbers can also have a meaning for a franchise. With that in mind — and with the turn of calendar to 2026 — I wanted to explore the number 26 in San Diego Padres history. I quickly learned that the number toils in relative anonymity in Friars history. But I forged ahead, creating this list of the top 10 players who have worn No. 26 as well as putting together a lineup of guys who donned those digits. Austin Nola, C Nola played for the Padres from 2020 to 2023, originally wearing No. 22 for his first season before switching to 26 when Josh Naylor was acquired at the trade deadline. He was mainly a backup with the Padres, although he did start 103 games in 2022. In those four years, Nola had a .234/.314/.320 slash line with nine homers and 86 RBIs over 237 games. Archi Cianfrocco, IF Cianfrocco came over to the Friars in a 1993 trade, a little more than a month before the deadline, from the Montreal Expos for right-handed reliever Tim Scott. Cianfrocco was very versatile and was primarily a utility player during his stay in San Diego, which lasted through 1998, his last season in MLB. Mainly a corner infielder, Cianfrocco played every position except center field, even seeing one game at catcher in 1996. His one inning behind the plate came in the ninth inning of a 6-0 of a June 9 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates after the Padres had gone through starter Brian Johnson and backup Brad Ausmus. Cianfrocco had a Padres career slash line of .241/.296/.382 with 27 homers and 154 RBIs. Scott Sanders, RHP Sanders had two stints with the Padres, donning No. 27 when he made his MLB debut in 1993 through 1996, then switching to No. 26 when he returned during the 1998 season via trade as Kevin Brown had the number. After starting 44 of his first 49 games, Sanders transitioned into a relief role in 1996, making 16 starts in 46 appearances. All 23 of his 1998 games were as a reliever. He had a 3.64 FIP and a 100 ERA+ with the Friars. Ollie Brown, RF A member of the original 1969 Padres team, Brown was first wearer of No. 26 in Friars history. In fact, Brown was involved in several firsts in team history: He was the first pick by the Padres in the 1968 expansion draft, being snatched from the San Francisco Giants, then was the Opening Day right fielder and cleanup hitter in the team's first season. Brown stuck with the Padres until May 1972, when he was traded to the Oakland A's. With the Friars, he had a .272/.327/.413 slash line with 52 homers and 208 RBIs in 458 games. Yangervis Solarte, IF Solarte joined the Padres at the 2014 trade deadline, coming over from the New York Yankees in the Chase Headley deal. Solarte began his Padres career wearing No. 27, but switched to 26 in 2015 after the offseason signing of star Matt Kemp. Solarte started out as mainly a third baseman, but also played second and some short and left field during his days with the Padres, which lasted until he was dealt to the Toronto Blue Jays before the 2018 season. He posted a .270/.326/.424 slash line with 51 homers and 215 RBIs in 445 games. Dustin Moseley, RHP Moseley had a star-crossed time in San Diego. He experienced his greatest success in a Padres uniform, but then also his biggest disappointment. After signing with the Padres before the 2011 season, Moseley became a mainstay of the Padres' rotation that season with a 3.99 FIP and 108 ERA+ on a bad team (71-91, last in NL West). But he dislocated his left (non-throwing) shoulder twice while batting, which ended his season in July. He was back for the 2012 season, but made just one start, injuring his right shoulder and needing season-ending surgery. That would end his MLB career, although he did attempt a comeback in 2014 with the Miami Marlins. Chris Welsh, LHP Another trade acquisition, Welsh came to the Friars from the the Yankees with center fielder Ruppert Jones, outfielder Joe Lefebvre and left-hander Tim Lollar for outfielder Jerry Mumphrey and right-hander John Pacella just as the 1981 season was to begin. Welsh pitched two-plus seasons with the Padres, with a good MLB debut season of 1981 and a 3.74 FIP. That ballooned to 4.99 in 1982 and led to his being sold to the Expos in May 1983. Dave Kingman, 1B-LF Yes, the well-known slugger donned 26 in his brief time with the Padres. Kingman came to the Padres in a June 1977 trade with the New York Mets for infielder Bobby Valentine and left-hander Paul Siebert. It was the start of a busy season of changing places for Kingman. He was waived by the Padres in September, claimed by the California Angels, who then traded him to the Yankees nine days later. The Padres trade was one of a series of related deals made that day, with the Mets sending Tom Seaver to the Cincinnati Reds in a monumental blockbuster. With the Padres, Kingman appeared in 56 games and hit 11 homers and drove in 39 runs. All of his movement made Kingman the first player to play in all four divisions in the same season (only East and West existed at the time). Ed Wojna, RHP Wojna came to the Padres in a late-1983 trade with the Philadelphia Phillies. He appeared in 36 games over the 1985-87 seasons, starting all 36, with a 4.19 FIP. Wojna was dealt to the Chicago White Sox after the 1987 season and only appeared in the majors again in 1988 with Cleveland. Doug Brocail, RHP Last but not least, Brocail is the only member of the No. 26 club who began his career with the Padres. He was taken with the 12th overall pick in the first round of the January 1986 draft, making his professional debut that summer. It took Brocail until the end of the 1992 season to make his MLB debut, but he did so wearing No. 49. That is what he would wear until the Friars shipped him to the Houston Astros in a blockbuster deal before the 1995 season in which the Padres landed third baseman Ken Caminiti, center fielder Steve Finley, shortstop Andujar Cedeno, first baseman Roberto Petagine and right-hander Brian Williams. Coincidentally, Williams would wear No. 26 with the Padres, too. Brocail would return to San Diego as a free agent for the 2006 and 2007 seasons. That is when he took claim of No. 26, which he wore after the Astros traded him to the Detroit Tigers before the 1997 season. In his two stints, Brocail had a 4.30 FIP in 131 games, including 27 starts, across five seasons. The All-26 Padres lineup Catcher: Austin Nola First base: Dave Kingman Second base: Terry Shumpert Third base: Yangervis Solarte Shortstop: Archi Cianfrocco Left field: Don Reynolds Center field: Mike Darr Right field: Ollie Brown Right-handed starter: Scott Sanders Left-handed starter: Chris Welsh Reliever: Doug Brocail View the full article

Freddy Peralta's name has popped up quite a bit this offseason in trade rumors. With the price of starting pitching being what it is, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Milwaukee Brewers trade the right-hander who has started the last two Opening Days. But I am here to say the Brewers should do the opposite of that. Not only don't trade him, but don't even let Peralta get any closer to free agency than he already is. Peralta is the perfect player for the Brewers to invest in with a contract extension. Why? A combination of performance, character, and commitment — not to mention how much the fans love Peralta. The Brewers are entering an interesting phase in franchise history. There are a number of young players who will be around for another few years, with a few highly rated prospects likely to be ready to make their MLB debuts in 2026 or 2027. And with the Brewers coming off their third straight NL Central championship, it is time to slightly change the narrative that the Crew have nationally. That is where Peralta comes in. Peralta endeared himself to Brewers fans when he made his MLB debut on Mother's Day 2018. The team was in desperate need of a starting pitcher for the finale of a four-game series vs. the Colorado Rockies when they summoned a fresh-faced 21-year-old Peralta from Triple-A Colorado Springs. Peralta had been scheduled to start the day before Mother's Day for the Sky Sox, with his mom and dad making the trip from the Dominican Republic. Instead, the fortunate timing allowed his parents to see their son make his MLB debut — and Peralta turned in a memorable performance. He took a no-hit bid into the sixth inning, finally giving up a lone hit in 5⅓ innings, walking two but striking out a whopping 13 in a 7-3 win over the Rockies. It was the start of something special for Peralta, who was one of three lottery tickets the Brewers acquired from the Seattle Mariners in December 2015 for first baseman Adam Lind. Like Peralta is now, Lind was entering the final year of a club-friendly contract extension going into 2016. Peralta would make one more start before going back down to Triple-A, but came back a month later and mostly remained in the rotation as the Brewers went on to win the Central and lost in seven games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. Before the 2020 season, Peralta signed a club-friendly five-year, $15.5 million contract that included club options for 2025 and 2026 at $8 million each. That covered two pre-arbitration years and all three trips to arbitrations, with the options buying out his first two free-agent seasons. At the time, Peralta had been bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen and was in competition to be the No. 5 starter. That investment has more than paid off. Following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Peralta has been a rotation mainstay, watching as Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff led the starting staff. But due to the Brewers trading Burnes, the 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner, and the shoulder injury to Woodruff at the end of the 2023 season, Peralta was thrust into a leadership role. Not having to worry about free agency due to the extension, Peralta thrived. From 2021-25, Peralta made 139 starts and two relief appearances, staying healthy with the exception of a 2022 strained right shoulder that cost him a couple of months. He put up a 3.65 FIP in those five seasons with a 126 ERA+ and 1.093 WHIP. He has struck out 29.5% of hitters while walking 9% and excelled at limiting hits, allowing just a .199 opponent batting average. The biggest knock on Peralta is his propensity to give up home runs — giving up 73 over the last three years — but by keeping runners off base, those are usually solo shots. That all resulted in a breakthrough in 2025, where he led the NL with 17 wins and struck out at least 200 for the third straight season. He finished fifth in the NL Cy Young Award balloting. But now is the time for the Brewers to pay up. Sure, Peralta will pitch 2026 on his $8 million contract. But before he starts for a third straight Opening Day, the Brewers need to show him some love for two reasons. First, Peralta has earned his payday. The interest in other teams seeking his services for 2026 shows that. Second, the players coming up in the system need to know there is a chance for them to earn a similar opportunity, not just knowing their tenure with the Brewers will likely be up when they go through the arbitration cycle three times — or even before. Peralta has provided leadership to the other young pitchers and position players. Just look at how he talked with Jackson Chourio during his rookie season of 2024, following some outfield misadventures, and how Chourio responded. With other Latin American prospects on their way in infielders Jesus Made and Luis Pena, seeing Peralta in the clubhouse on a daily basis will be a source of comfort and guidance as they adjust to the rigors of daily life as an MLB player. What does a Peralta extension look like? I'm not that smart, but with the qualifying offer next offseason probably in the $23 million range, Peralta should be able to land something close to a $30 average annual value for at least five years. Can you imagine the smiles on Peralta's face if he lands that type of deal with the Brewers? View the full article

What will the one and only Trey Yesavage be doing for the 2026 season? Cory Sparks breaks down the likely future for a righty who ran the minor league gauntlet in 2025. The World Series hero sports an over-the-top motion and numbers that hint at his role on the big-league squad in the spring. View the full article