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The Mets are surveying the trade market for rotation upgrades and have expressed interest in Twins right-hander Joe Ryan, who remains appealing due to his affordability and remaining club control. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Ryan is one of several trade targets for the Mets. Minnesota, which unexpectedly tore down much of its roster at the 2025 trade deadline, held onto Ryan despite significant interest from multiple contenders. His strong performance and team-friendly salary make him a valuable asset, and the Twins’ willingness to move him now remains uncertain. Much of Minnesota’s direction hinges on ownership and the status of two long-anticipated minority-ownership additions, which could influence the team’s budget. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he intends to build for 2026 unless directed otherwise, though the club’s quiet offseason and drastically reduced payroll leave their true intentions unclear. A deeper sell-off that includes Ryan, Pablo López, Ryan Jeffers, or even a reassessment of Byron Buxton’s no-trade stance becomes more plausible if spending remains restricted. If the Twins do consider a Ryan trade, Mets prospect Jonah Tong makes sense as a centerpiece (Heyman mentioned Tong specifically in the article). His rapid rise through the minors and elite strikeout rates have established him as a top-50 prospect, despite early struggles in his MLB debut. The upcoming Winter Meetings are expected to reveal whether Minnesota plans to add pieces for a 2026 push or continue stripping down the roster, with payroll flexibility likely determining how aggressively they act and whether their top players become realistic trade chips. View the full article

I'll preface this by saying I'm a sucker for powder blue uniforms. As a child of the 1980s when it felt like every team had one, it evokes nostalgia for a time when baseball was stupid, played on concrete, and everyone was doing something illegal. To my knowledge, the Brewers have never used "Milwaukee" on a powder blue jersey, making these likely to be road uniforms. The block font is a throwback, but only to jerseys that read "Brewers" in the 1970s and 1980s. Milwaukee was typically written in a script font, not dissimilar to the current dark blue jerseys worn on the road. What are your thoughts on these new jerseys? Yay or nay? View the full article

Despite recently trading for Sonny Gray, the Red Sox still have notable holes in their rotation. Both Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval will be returning from long-term injuries, and Tanner Houck is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. There have been many reports that the Red Sox and Royals have explored trades that would include sending a starting pitcher to Boston and an outfielder to Kansas City. Most recently, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the following after meeting with Royals GM J.J. Picollo. Let’s do a deep dive into who could potentially move to Kansas City, how they would fit, and what it might take to bring them to Kansas City. Top Potential Trade Targets Jarren Duran Duran has been the name most often mentioned in trade talks. He would slot perfectly into the top of the lineup, and having Duran and Witt batting one and two, respectively, would be among the most dynamic in baseball to watch. Duran has accumulated over 15 fWAR in his last three seasons, led the American League in triples the past 2 seasons, led the league in doubles in 2024, and was six behind the leader, Bobby Witt Jr., in 2025. His .332 OBP from last season would rank fourth in the Royals roster, better than Jonathan India’s OBP of .323, who the Royals acquired last offseason for his on-base abilities. Duran would also be a clear upgrade to the Royals’ outfield production. Based on Fangraph’s projections, Duran’s projected fWAR of 2.6 is just one shy of the Royals’ entire outfield projected fWAR of 3.6. Masataka Yoshida Yoshida has been primarily a designated hitter in his time in Boston, but has still played some outfield in recent years. In his first three seasons in Boston, his production dropped noticeably compared to his time playing in Japan. His defense will not provide an upgrade in Kansas City. When playing the field in 2023, his Fielding Run Value was -11. In 2023 and 2024, his offensive production was well above league-average with a wRC+ over 110 and a wOBA over .330. His production in 2025 dipped, but he missed the first 90 games of the season recovering from a shoulder injury. If the Royals trade for him, they will hope that he can return to his pre-injury form. There is also the issue of money. Yoshida is owed $18.6 million in each of his next two seasons before becoming a free agent. That salary would make him the third-highest earner next year behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Seth Lugo. While the Royals are not necessarily opposed to committing that amount to one player, that salary could be prohibitive for adding other talent to the roster. Jhostynxon Garcia Garcia had a very brief cameo in the majors. He has had a lot of success in the minor leagues, posting an OPS of at least .810 in 2024 and 2025. He could be an intriguing option for the Royals, but he might not be the impact bat that could help the Royals in the immediate future. If included in a trade, Outfielders Less Likely To Be Involved Wilyer Abreu Abreu has been a valuable contributor to the Red Sox. One issue with Abreu is that he has been shielded from starting against left-handed pitchers. Since the Royals are also in search of a platoon partner for Jac Caglianone, Abreu is less likely to be a fit in Kansas City. Ceddanne Rafaela Rafaela is a defense-first center fielder. While his offense was decent in 2025, the Royals will be looking for more power in the outfield. His 95 OPS+ from last season would be an improvement over most of the Royals' outfielders, but ideally, they are adding an above-average bat to boost their lineup. Roman Anthony Anthony finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting while appearing in only 71 games. The Red Sox already signed him to an extension, so if there were a player who was considered untouchable, it would be him. Kristian Campbell Campbell spent most of his season at second base before being optioned to Worcester in June. With his role on the Boston roster uncertain heading into next season, Kansas City would be assuming risk by acquiring him with the expectation of making an immediate impact. He also received an extension last season, so despite his struggles, that makes a move less likely. Trade Scenarios Below are three different trade scenarios involving Royals pitching and a Red Sox outfielder. 1. Blockbuster Trade Red Sox receive: SP Cole Ragans Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2 Boston prospect) SP John Holobetz (outside of the top 20) This trade would receive a lot of comparisons to last year’s trade for Garret Crochet from the White Sox. Crochet was traded in exchange for four prospects, two of whom were in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects at the time. Unlike Crochet, Ragans has three seasons left until free agency, which is enough to yield a bigger haul for Kansas City. Ragans and Corchet profile similarly in their first few seasons, both producing high strikeout rates and low walk rates. Below is a comparison between Ragans's career and Crochet's career before getting traded to Boston. This trade return is headlined by Duran and Garcia, both of whom help Kansas City solve issues in their lineup. Duran adds an impactful bat to the top of the lineup to pair with Bobby Witt Jr. Garcia, while maybe not quite ready to be playing every day, could be an option for a short-side platoon partner for Caglianone in right field. This could be a good way to ease Garcia into a major league lineup, but only against left-handed pitchers. The inclusion of Holobetz is mostly about adding more value to the trade and adding a pitching option for the future in Kansas City. According to MLB.com’s prospects list, his ETA for the major leagues is 2027. Assuming that there are no other trades that send away pitchers, the Royals will still have plenty of major league depth in their rotation. 2. Major Trade Red Sox receive: SP Noah Cameron C Blake Mitchell (#2 Royals prospect) SP Steven Zobac (#15 prospect) Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran This trade is headlined by Duran and Cameron. The Royals would be capitalizing on Caermon’s excellent rookie campaign and would be hoping to “trade high” on him. Cameron finished 4th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and has five years of control left. He may not be the big arm in the rotation that the Red Sox would be looking for long-term, but he would be a solid arm in their rotation for years to come. The Royals would also be dealing from another position of strength, catcher depth. With the emergence of Carter Jensen on the MLB roster last season and Salvador Perez being ever-present in the Royals lineup (and signing a contract extension), Mitchell does not have an easy path to gametime at the MLB level. The Red Sox adding him would not require them to move on from either Connor Wong or Carlos Narvaez, but it would give them flexibility moving forward at the catcher position. Zobac is on the 40-man roster and could potentially see major league action despite his struggles last year. He could maybe contribute by bolstering the Red Sox in the bullpen. 3. Minor Trade Red Sox receive: SP Kris Bubic Royals receive: OF Masataka Yoshida OF Miguel Bleis (No. 14 Boston prospect) This trade would leave each team a little disappointed, given how much smoke there has been regarding trades this offseason, but this would leave each team slightly better off. Yoshida would provide a bat to the Royals' outfield, with some time as a designated hitter, and they could get a return for Bubic instead of letting him walk in free agency. The Red Sox would add an all-star caliber pitcher to their rotation and free up salary space to pursue one of the big bats in free agency. The inclusion of Bleis adds a high-upside outfielder who has also suffered many injury setbacks in his career. His speed and defense would profile well for Kauffman Stadium's large outfield eventually. Interested in reading this situation from the Red Sox perspective? We have a complementary piece on our Red Sox site! View the full article

Despite recently trading for Sonny Gray, the Red Sox still have notable holes in their rotation. Both Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval will be returning from long-term injuries, and Tanner Houck is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. There have been many reports that the Red Sox and Royals have explored trades that would include sending a starting pitcher to Boston and an outfielder to Kansas City. Most recently, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the following after meeting with Royals GM J.J. Picollo. Let’s do a deep dive into who could potentially move to Kansas City, how they would fit, and what it might take to bring them to Kansas City. Top Potential Trade Targets Jarren Duran Duran has been the name most often mentioned in trade talks. He would slot perfectly into the top of the lineup, and having Duran and Witt batting one and two, respectively, would be among the most dynamic in baseball to watch. Duran has accumulated over 15 fWAR in his last three seasons, led the American League in triples the past 2 seasons, led the league in doubles in 2024, and was six behind the leader, Bobby Witt Jr., in 2025. His .332 OBP from last season would rank fourth in the Royals roster, better than Jonathan India’s OBP of .323, who the Royals acquired last offseason for his on-base abilities. Duran would also be a clear upgrade to the Royals’ outfield production. Based on Fangraph’s projections, Duran’s projected fWAR of 2.6 is just one shy of the Royals’ entire outfield projected fWAR of 3.6. Masataka Yoshida Yoshida has been primarily a designated hitter in his time in Boston, but has still played some outfield in recent years. In his first three seasons in Boston, his production dropped noticeably compared to his time playing in Japan. His defense will not provide an upgrade in Kansas City. When playing the field in 2023, his Fielding Run Value was -11. In 2023 and 2024, his offensive production was well above league-average with a wRC+ over 110 and a wOBA over .330. His production in 2025 dipped, but he missed the first 90 games of the season recovering from a shoulder injury. If the Royals trade for him, they will hope that he can return to his pre-injury form. There is also the issue of money. Yoshida is owed $18.6 million in each of his next two seasons before becoming a free agent. That salary would make him the third-highest earner next year behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Seth Lugo. While the Royals are not necessarily opposed to committing that amount to one player, that salary could be prohibitive for adding other talent to the roster. Jhostynxon Garcia Garcia had a very brief cameo in the majors. He has had a lot of success in the minor leagues, posting an OPS of at least .810 in 2024 and 2025. He could be an intriguing option for the Royals, but he might not be the impact bat that could help the Royals in the immediate future. If included in a trade, Outfielders Less Likely To Be Involved Wilyer Abreu Abreu has been a valuable contributor to the Red Sox. One issue with Abreu is that he has been shielded from starting against left-handed pitchers. Since the Royals are also in search of a platoon partner for Jac Caglianone, Abreu is less likely to be a fit in Kansas City. Ceddanne Rafaela Rafaela is a defense-first center fielder. While his offense was decent in 2025, the Royals will be looking for more power in the outfield. His 95 OPS+ from last season would be an improvement over most of the Royals' outfielders, but ideally, they are adding an above-average bat to boost their lineup. Roman Anthony Anthony finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting while appearing in only 71 games. The Red Sox already signed him to an extension, so if there were a player who was considered untouchable, it would be him. Kristian Campbell Campbell spent most of his season at second base before being optioned to Worcester in June. With his role on the Boston roster uncertain heading into next season, Kansas City would be assuming risk by acquiring him with the expectation of making an immediate impact. He also received an extension last season, so despite his struggles, that makes a move less likely. Trade Scenarios Below are three different trade scenarios involving Royals pitching and a Red Sox outfielder. 1. Blockbuster Trade Red Sox receive: SP Cole Ragans Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2 Boston prospect) SP John Holobetz (outside of the top 20) This trade would receive a lot of comparisons to last year’s trade for Garret Crochet from the White Sox. Crochet was traded in exchange for four prospects, two of whom were in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects at the time. Unlike Crochet, Ragans has three seasons left until free agency, which is enough to yield a bigger haul for Kansas City. Ragans and Corchet profile similarly in their first few seasons, both producing high strikeout rates and low walk rates. Below is a comparison between Ragans's career and Crochet's career before getting traded to Boston. This trade return is headlined by Duran and Garcia, both of whom help Kansas City solve issues in their lineup. Duran adds an impactful bat to the top of the lineup to pair with Bobby Witt Jr. Garcia, while maybe not quite ready to be playing every day, could be an option for a short-side platoon partner for Caglianone in right field. This could be a good way to ease Garcia into a major league lineup, but only against left-handed pitchers. The inclusion of Holobetz is mostly about adding more value to the trade and adding a pitching option for the future in Kansas City. According to MLB.com’s prospects list, his ETA for the major leagues is 2027. Assuming that there are no other trades that send away pitchers, the Royals will still have plenty of major league depth in their rotation. 2. Major Trade Red Sox receive: SP Noah Cameron C Blake Mitchell (#2 Royals prospect) SP Steven Zobac (#15 prospect) Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran This trade is headlined by Duran and Cameron. The Royals would be capitalizing on Caermon’s excellent rookie campaign and would be hoping to “trade high” on him. Cameron finished 4th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and has five years of control left. He may not be the big arm in the rotation that the Red Sox would be looking for long-term, but he would be a solid arm in their rotation for years to come. The Royals would also be dealing from another position of strength, catcher depth. With the emergence of Carter Jensen on the MLB roster last season and Salvador Perez being ever-present in the Royals lineup (and signing a contract extension), Mitchell does not have an easy path to gametime at the MLB level. The Red Sox adding him would not require them to move on from either Connor Wong or Carlos Narvaez, but it would give them flexibility moving forward at the catcher position. Zobac is on the 40-man roster and could potentially see major league action despite his struggles last year. He could maybe contribute by bolstering the Red Sox in the bullpen. 3. Minor Trade Red Sox receive: SP Kris Bubic Royals receive: OF Masataka Yoshida OF Miguel Bleis (No. 14 Boston prospect) This trade would leave each team a little disappointed, given how much smoke there has been regarding trades this offseason, but this would leave each team slightly better off. Yoshida would provide a bat to the Royals' outfield, with some time as a designated hitter, and they could get a return for Bubic instead of letting him walk in free agency. The Red Sox would add an all-star caliber pitcher to their rotation and free up salary space to pursue one of the big bats in free agency. The inclusion of Bleis adds a high-upside outfielder who has also suffered many injury setbacks in his career. His speed and defense would profile well for Kauffman Stadium's large outfield eventually. Interested in reading this situation from the Red Sox perspective? We have a complementary piece on our Red Sox site! View the full article

Many of you might remember Miguel Andujar from his Yankees days. The Yankees’ No. 5 and the overall 59th-ranked prospect (per Baseball America) burst onto the scene for the Bronx Bombers with a breakout rookie campaign in 2018 that saw him go yard 27 times, drive in 92 runs, and put up a wRC+ of 129. He finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind only future Hall of Famer Shohei Ohtani. As high as those highs were, oh boy, were the lows to follow ever low. Over the next six years of his career, from 2019-2024, Andujar hit a total of 16 home runs, 11 fewer than he hit in just his rookie year. The other numbers were just as bad over that span. His OPS+ and wRC+ were both a measly 81. Now, you might be asking me, on what planet is this player a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays? Well, the answer would be… this one! Allow me to explain. Miguel Andujar saw a bit of a career resurgence this past season, in which he split time between the Athletics and Cincinnati. While the home run power from his rookie season did not return, his ability to hit for extra bases saw him put up a healthy .822 OPS, along with a 125 wRC+. We can also dive a little deeper. I think it’s safe to say the Blue Jays have developed a soft spot for a certain type of player, specifically those who put the bat on the ball, have pesky at-bats, and don’t strike out! The Jays as a team last year struck out the second least per game in MLB, with just 6.82 K/9, only slightly behind the Royals at 6.77 K/9. This is an area where Andujar excels. In 2025, he had a whiff rate in the 86th percentile and a K% in the 87th percentile. Something important to keep in mind is that Andujar is not a good defender, posting an OAA of -7 in 2025. Like I said, not good. But he does come with some versatility — having made starts at third base, first base, and both outfield corners in 2025 — which the Jays also value. The goal of signing a Miguel Andujar isn’t to take at-bats away from a Davis Schneider. Instead, it's to maybe add a bit more of an offensive threat to a lineup where a Myles Straw or IKF type might otherwise slot in. The hypothetical Andujar signing also comes with the assumption that most of his work would come against lefties, against whom he posted an impressive .986 OPS, compared to his .759 OPS against righties. And none of this is to undermine the value of Straw, who would almost certainly replace Andujar late in a game whenever the Jays had a lead. All in all, I think Andujar would make a great addition to the 2026 Blue Jays. He’s a good low-risk, under-the-radar signing that likely comes cheap on a one-year deal, offering some solid upside. View the full article

The Twins have had no shortage of left-handed hitting corner outfielders for years, but as they’ve continued to amass this style of player, their depth has turned into a logjam. With much of the roster in need of significant upgrades, it’s time to either look to deal from this depth chart or (at the very least) stop targeting left-handed corner outfielders with their limited resources. The Twins did not fully prioritize prospects during their historic trade-deadline selloff in 2025. Instead, they chose to focus on players who were at or near MLB-ready status. They seemed especially keen on starting pitching and left-handed-hitting outfielders. In terms of pitchers, there’s no such thing as too much depth. On the position player side, however, it made less sense. Despite having both current and future depth in the corner outfield, they acquired James Outman, Alan Roden, and Hendry Mendez, all left-handed-hitting outfielders who will likely spend most of their time in the corners. We will likely see all of them in 2026, as they filter into the majors and share playing time with fellow members of the brotherhood Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins. Despite the playing time being difficult to project, the Twins tendered a contract to Trevor Larnach this winter, though whether he remains on the roster heading into 2026 remains to be seen. A strange detail that has surfaced is that the Twins' hangup on trading Joe Ryan at the deadline to the Red Sox was reportedly Boston’s refusal to include an MLB-level outfielder in the deal. We can now assume this means either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu—both of whom are left-handed-hitting corner outfielders whom Boston is currently open to dealing. It seems as though the Twins cannot help themselves when it comes to this type of player. Despite significant questions across the roster, they appear hyper-focused on maintaining (and even adding to) the corner outfield endlessly. Acquiring an established, borderline All-Star-level player would undoubtedly be an upgrade over the current group, but why spend limited resources on doing so? The current logjam includes plenty of players of all ages, with interesting skills that could translate into strong production. Wallner has shown everyday player upside in the past. They just targeted Roden, and clearly viewed him as a regular in left field. There will be no shortage of names who can at least rotate in and out, not to mention the top prospects set to debut at some point in 2026. Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are in Triple-A St. Paul, and despite injury concerns in their past, they're likely a couple of good months away from kicking down the door to the majors. Though it’s always a risk to go into a season leaning on the production of players who have yet to debut, you still want the at-bats available to them when they’re ready. If Jenkins and Rodriguez are ready midseason, the Twins can likely find creative ways to get them in the lineup. Continuing to add MLB-level players to that depth chart would make things increasingly difficult. When it comes down to it, it’s a question of asset management. Of course, it’s difficult to say we don’t want to see the Twins add a good player at any position. Still, if they’re going to spend the kind of capital it would take for such a deal, why do it at arguably the deepest position in the organization? They could go into the season with the current group of left-handed corner outfielders with reasonably high expectations, even if two or three get injured throughout the year. Is that really the part of a 92-loss roster the front office should be hell bent on upgrading? Nor is this just about proactively adding to that group. Minnesota was (wrongly, it now seems) steadfast in their expectations when shopping Max Kepler in trades over the final few years of his tenure with the team. They surprised everyone by tendering a contract to Larnach. They believe this player type has a certain baseline value—a high offensive floor, especially because they take up the larger side of a theoretical platoon; middling but non-zero athleticism; and a chance to find power—that has led them to cleave too tightly to some of them in recent years. Regardless of the Twins' short and long-term plans, they should be content with their group of left-handed corner outfielders. They’ve drafted, signed, traded for, and developed a long list of names in this group. If they’re confident in their abilities, they should have more than enough options to cycle into this role for years to come. They have talent and upside across all ages, which is more than they can say for several other positions at the MLB level and in the organization as a whole. They should, indeed, be moving players like this out, rather than bringing any more in. It’s time for the Twins to stop throwing their limited assets at left-handed corner outfielders and take a look at the rest of the roster. Do you agree? View the full article

As November drew to a close, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier dropped a bombshell of a rumor. According to him, the Boston Red Sox are interested in acquiring left-handed starter Cole Ragans from the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have long been connected to the Red Sox in trade rumors since each team has depth at a position the other covets. The Red Sox still need starting pitching, even after the Sonny Gray trade, and the Royals need offensive firepower in their outfield. First, for those who may not know who Ragans is, let’s dive into a bit of background on him. The Royals acquired Ragans when they traded Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers in 2023. He began in the Royals’ bullpen and worked his way to the starting rotation fully in 2024. He was an All-Star in 2024 and flashed an incredible amount of potential. He does come with an injury risk though, as all pitchers do in modern baseball. He’s had two Tommy John surgeries, in 2018 and 2019. In 2025, he was limited to just 61 1/3 innings over 13 starts due to groin and rotator cuff injuries. Even still, Ragans is a pitcher worth trading for. He's 28, has three cheap years of team control remaining, and produced impressive numbers on the mound when healthy last year (2.68 xERA, 2.50 FIP). Let’s see how the Red Sox could potentially pull the deal off. The Blockbuster Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino Royals Receive: OF Jarren Duran, OF Jhostynxon Garcia, LHP Payton Tolle This trade would net the Royals the Red Sox’s top two prospects in Tolle and Garcia, while giving them a day-one starter in the outfield in Duran. They’d likely promote Garcia up to their main roster fairly quickly as well. This deal also allows for them to get a flamethrowing left-handed starter with a high ceiling to immediately replace Ragans in their rotation. Tolle is young and has the makings of a future top-of-the-rotation arm, but he’s still lacking a true secondary offering and parting with him to acquire a more finished product isn't a wild thought. For the Red Sox, this trade not only nets them a true number two starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet, it also fixes their first base problem. Pasquantino has a name made for Boston, and even though he’s left-handed, he becomes the biggest power threat in the lineup. He slugged 32 home runs last year with 14 of those coming at home. If we overlay his home spray chart over Fenway Park, we see a ton of offensive potential. He slashed .264/.323/.475 in 2025 while leading the team in home runs and being in the top four of most offensive categories for the Royals. Defensively, Pasquantino leaves quite a bit to be desired, but his offensive production more than makes up for it. Like Ragans, the first baseman in 28 years old and comes with three remaining years of control. This is A LOT to give up in any trade, but fixing the team's biggest problems for the next three seasons in one fell swoop might be worth the price of admission. The Likelier Option Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans Royals Receive: OF Jarren Duran, LHP Connelly Early Now we have a much more simplified version of the trade above. Fewer pieces are moving teams and the Red Sox are still searching for an answer to their first base problem, but the Royals get their guy and rotation replacement in both Duran and Early. If we look back to last year’s Winter Meetings, Craig Breslow traded multiple pieces for Garrett Crochet. So far, only two of them have made it to the major leagues with the White Sox. In this deal, the Royals would be able to plug both returning pieces into their Opening Day line up and rotation and feel very comfortable as they move forward through the season. It appears as though Early is in contention for a rotation spot once spring training gets underway for the Red Sox so there is no reason to believe he’d be battling even more for a spot with the Royals. To some, Early’s ceiling is higher than Tolle’s, so the Royals could be more interested in him since he has performed better at the major league leave than Tolle to date. Early also has a postseason start under his belt, which could help tip the scales in his favor as well. Losing Duran and Early would be a blow, but this is what a cost-controlled ace costs in baseball. Don't let Ragans' 4.67 ERA fool you — every expected metric pegs him as a top-15 starter in baseball over the past two seasons. The Kansas City Youth Movement Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans Royals Receive: OF Wilyer Abreu, RHP Brayan Bello And now for something completely different, sort of. Instead of minor leaguers who have just had a cup of coffee with the big-league club, the Royals could be more interested in one of the current rotation pieces for the Sox in Bello. In addition to him, they could want to go younger than Duran in the outfield and bring in two-time Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu to man right field at Kauffman Stadium. There’s debate as to which outfielder should be moved in a deal for Ragans — we discussed it at length on Episode 30 of the Talk Sox Podcast — but if the Royals want longevity, then Abreu may be their guy. Bello would slot in immediately as their number three starter behind Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic. He’s signed to a long-term contract through what should be his peak seasons and he’s looking to build off a very good 2025 season. He’s not a direct replacement for Ragans, but you know what you’re getting with him and he would give their rotation another dependable arm. For those wondering why Abreu has to be included here: Remember that Bello's deal is heavily backloaded. He'll be paid roughly $15 million over the next two seasons, before earning $16.1 million in 2028 and $19.1 million in 2029. The small-market Royals may not be keen on that fact. At this point, before the Winter Meetings, everything is just speculation. Ragans may not be moved, Duran or Abreu may both be on the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox, and Sonny Gray may actually be the number two starter in Boston. I doubt all of those come to pass though. The Royals are desperately searching for offensive talent to put in their outfield, and the Red Sox have to keep pace with the Blue Jays and Yankees as we head into 2026. What’s different this time around, though, is that the Red Sox hold the bulk of the bargaining power. With the addition of Gray, the Red Sox shouldn’t feel rushed to make a move for Ragans at the upcoming meetings if the Royals are demanding too much in return (which many will say is this case here). Play the waiting game, explore other starting options, and then re-engage the Royals as the Winter Meetings start to wrap up and see if the price drops some. While he’s not the most proven starter on the trade market, Cole Ragans should be at the top of the wish list for the Boston Red Sox, and they should be willing to get a bit uncomfortable to make it happen. View the full article

The 2025 Brewers ended the season with the majority of their roster locked down for 2026, and coming off a season with the most wins in baseball, that is a good thing. However, it does make it harder to identify obvious positions to upgrade. With William Contreras locked in at catcher; the Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers combo at first base; Brice Turang ascending to new heights at second base; Caleb Durbin finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year race at third base; and Joey Ortiz running hot and cold at the plate while providing premier defense at shortstop, the infield looks locked and loaded for 2026. While Alex Bregman would look great playing third for the Brewers in 2026, that’s the type of upgrade that rarely comes via free agency in Milwaukee. Is there room then in the outfield to add value? The 2025 Brewers outfield was very good; the Crew were joined by the Yankees, Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox as the only teams having all three primary outfielders rank in the top 35 in outfielder fWAR for the season (Sal Frelick 3.6, Jackson Chourio 2.9, Isaac Collins 2.6). All three are good baseball players, and there is reason to believe all three can continue to improve as Chourio grows into his tools, Frelick nears his prime age, and Collins continues to gain experience in the outfield as part of his late breakout. Collectively, this trio hit 42 home runs, with Chourio accounting for exactly half of those. Because they're both small by big-league standards, it’s fair to wonder how much more power Collins and Frelick have. Much like Bregman at third, Kyle Tucker would fit just fine in Milwaukee’s outfield, but Brewers fans won’t find the former Cub under their Christmas tree. Given the Brewers' payroll expectations and their recent history of not sacrificing defense for offense, there are very few players who would qualify as a potentially obtainable upgrade in Milwaukee’s outfield. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have arguably the best defensive player in baseball (Ceddanne Rafaela) patrolling center field. On either side, they have Gold Glove right fielder Wilyer Abreu and last year’s consensus top prospect and budding superstar, Roman Anthony, in left. They also have Jarren Duran, who produced the 7th-highest fWAR among all position players in 2024 with 6.8 and another 3.9 fWAR this season. The Red Sox have been rumored to be shopping Duran since last winter, and are doing so again right now. Would Duran be an upgrade for the Brewers, and how would he fit in? Duran clearly has more power than either Collins or Frelick. He hit 16 home runs as part of 70 extra-base hits in 2025 and had 21 and 83 of those, respectively, in 2004. Those surface-level stats dwarf the Brewers’ trio. Duran is an exceptional baserunner, finishing in the top 10 in FanGraphs BsR value three seasons in a row. He took a step back at the plate this season, but any regression back toward his 2024 level would be an upgrade for the Brewers. HR Total xBH SLG wRC+ Duran 2024 21 83 .492 131 Duran 2025 16 70 .442 111 Chourio 21 55 .463 111 Frelick 12 35 .405 114 Collins 9 34 .411 122 On defense, Duran profiles best as a center fielder. Statcast rated him highly in center for 2024, with a strong throwing arm, before the Sox moved him to left this season so Rafaela could take over. Interestingly, Statcast also rates Chourio as a better center fielder than corner outfielder, and even Frelick did not rate positively in left. Only Collins receives positive defensive ratings in left field. Either of these outfield alignments could work: Chourio RF, Duran CF, Collins LF Frelick RF, Duran CF, Chourio LF The team could, therefore, effectively platoon Frelick (who batted .301 but only had six extra-base hits (all doubles) against left-handed pitchers in 174 plate appearances in 2025) with Collins (who had 13 extra-base hits in 143 plate appearances against southpaws) around Duran and Chourio, with Blake Perkins or Garrett Mitchell slotting in as a fifth outfielder instead of a fourth. The Red Sox, like most teams, would like to add pitching. Their bullpen, in particular, needs help. Aaron Ashby was excellent down the stretch for the Brewers, until they wore him out in the playoffs, and he looks like a potential late-inning reliever whom a manager could count on to lock down an opposing lineup across multiple innings. Ashby’s contract for 2026 matches almost exactly with what Duran is expected to earn in arbitration this winter, which should work well for both teams, as the Red Sox are reportedly looking to save a large portion of their budget for a corner infielder like Bregman or Pete Alonso. Trading Ashby would sting, but his contract is a little elevated for a non-closer Brewers reliever. FanGraphs recently rated Robert Gasser as the 10th-best prospect in the Brewers system, and he’s already demonstrated success at the MLB level. He could be a solid back-end rotation option or swingman for Boston. With Boston looking to compete in 2026, maybe a package of Gasser, Ashby, and Nick Mears—three arms that would all immediately join the Red Sox pitching staff—would entice Boston to send Duran to Milwaukee. The Brewers have the depth to replace Ashby and Mears in their bullpen, and Gasser is one of a handful of starters who currently don’t have a rotation spot. Acquiring Duran should open up plenty of options for the Brewers to deal from their outfield depth, and they could eventually explore trading two of Frelick, Collins, and Mitchell. Duran, with three years of team control remaining, would be a good candidate to be traded again by the Brewers during either of the next two offseasons. Matt Arnold and company have stocked their roster and minor-league system with many good players. Still, they may need to find a way to make marginal upgrades at positions already considered strengths to reach that next level of success and win their first pennant since 1982, or their first World Series ever. Duran is one of a limited set of realistic ways they could do so. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays shocked the MLB world the night before American Thanksgiving by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. With Cease joining an already strong starting rotation — featuring Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, and now Cody Ponce as well — the Jays significantly bolstered their pitching staff. Although Berríos is expected to be ready for spring training, how he will fare during his recovery this offseason remains a big question. Regardless of who claims the fifth rotation spot, the Blue Jays are now positioned to have one of the best starting rotations in all of MLB. Yet, with such a significant contract added to their books, the question now shifts to whether the Blue Jays can still add a top-tier bat. The Blue Jays are expected to exceed the second Competitive Balance Tax threshold (set at $264 million) for a second consecutive year in 2026. That means they will pay a 30% tax on all overages (the penalty for teams that surpass the luxury tax threshold two years in a row) as well as a 12% surcharge on every dollar they spend past $264 million (the penalty for surpassing the first luxury tax threshold by more than $20 million). If their CBT payroll reaches $284 million ($40 million over the first CBT threshold), they will face both a significantly higher surcharge rate and the penalty of their first-round draft pick moving down 10 spots. The Jays surpassed this threshold in 2025, and they are already very close to surpassing it again. So, these financial and draft consequences could affect their decision to add more high-salary players. Signing a bat like Bo Bichette, who DiamondCentric projects to earn a $25 million annual salary, could put the Blue Jays over the fourth CBT threshold, at which point the surcharge on overages rises to 60%. Re-signing Bichette could still be worth it, especially if he stays at second base, where he played in the World Series. Last season, he struggled defensively with a -12 DRS and -13 OAA, both the lowest among shortstops. Yet, it would cost the Blue Jays significantly more than just the value of his salary. The Blue Jays still also need an upgrade at closer, or at least a new middle reliever, so they might prefer to add a bat via trade rather than sign another expensive free agent. Acquiring a player this way could help them keep their luxury tax bill down and possibly avoid further draft penalties. Potential trade targets include infielders Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks and Brandon Lowe of the Rays. Other players rumored to be available include Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. That said, since the outfield is already a logjam, any new bat is more likely to be an infielder. In any case, the Blue Jays are clearly set up to be one of the top teams again next season. Their offseason decisions in the coming weeks will be closely watched as they look to further improve an already elite team. View the full article

Of the 36 players selected in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft, 30 of them have played in the big leagues. Some have done well: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Rogers, and Drew Rasmussen have all appeared in an All-Star Game. Others haven’t done so well. DL Hall is somewhere in the middle. Dayton Lane Hall was the 21st overall pick by the Baltimore Orioles that summer, and big things were expected of the southpaw from Valdosta, Georgia. During his first five seasons in the Orioles chain, Hall moved up one level per year, and although he struck out batters at the rate of 32.6% from 2017-2022, he walked hitters at a rate of 13.3%. Quickly, it became clear that health and control would be the limiting factors for him, rather than the magnitude of his talent. He graded out quite well as a prospect, with a plus fastball and above-average secondary offerings in his curve and changeup. His fastball occasionally hit triple digits, but he needed to find consistency in both location and movement. Hall pitched a combined 29 games in 2022-2023 for the Orioles. He posted an ERA+ of 94 and a FIP of 2.44 in that time span. But when the opportunity for Baltimore to trade for a Cy Young-winning starter came up, Hall and Joey Ortiz were shipped to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes. Hall started the 2024 season in the Milwaukee rotation—effectively taking Burnes’s spot—but made only four starts before going on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained left knee suffered while fielding a bunt. He was later transferred to the 60-day IL, after he aggravated the knee issue in a rehab stint. Hall returned to the mound late in the season. He made two starts and six relief outings in September, striking out 22 batters in 22 innings while walking eight. The stuff remained very good. At the start of the 2025 camp, Hall was battling for the fifth spot in the rotation when he went on the 60-day IL with a left lat strain. He returned in late May, but as a reliever. He served as an opener in three games and relieved in 17 others. Once again, Hall hit the injured list in mid-August with a strained right oblique and missed six weeks, returning in time to make a relief outing in the last game of the year. Hall is now being considered a reliever, instead of a starter, though he has six pitches in his arsenal: a four-seamer that hits 95, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball, and sinker. “I’ve found a little bit of a niche in the bullpen. Anytime I go out there, I’ve kind of found a comfort zone," Hall told reporters in August, when asked about his preference for starting or working out of the pen, Hall has the skills and is learning to pitch all over again, but fighting off injuries will determine if he becomes a high-leverage reliever or if he is just a ‘back of the pen’ guy. At 27, he is in the prime of his pitching career, and the Brewers are waiting to see if his career takes off, but he needs to stay off the injured list. In that sense, unfortunately, this could literally be his make-or-break campaign. Can DL Hall find his comfort zone in 2026 and show the baseball world the pitcher that the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes for? Feel free to start the conversation in the comments section below. View the full article

There was a point in 2025 where New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga looked like he was ready for the breakthrough that would let him live among the game's top-tier arms. He pitched to a 1.39 ERA in the first half of the season and ended June with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate that each represented his best in an individual month up to that point. Then, the second half hit. As the Mets faltered in the standings, Senga played his part. His ERA skyrocketed to 6.56, his strikeout rate fell to 20.5 percent in July and August, and his walk rate sat at nearly 13 percent. He was touched for hard contact over 40 percent of the time (by FanGraphs' measure). While he's expressed a desire to stay in Queens, the Mets' attempt to rebuild their roster toward another postseason run has, naturally, led to Senga's name landing on the trade block this winter. Given their absence of starting pitching, it's also natural to ponder whether the San Diego Padres should make a run at the embattled starter. Despite the second-half swoon, Senga isn't without value. He has a career 3.00 ERA (3.82 FIP) in Major League Baseball, with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate across 285 innings. He's also averaged 5.5 innings per start, with longevity proving to be something of an issue for Padres starters in 2025. That's a lot of boxes checked by a player with two years remaining on his contract (and a club option for a third season). Those two years at a $28 million price point makes a whole lot of sense for the Padres, at least on paper. You're getting a pitcher with clear upside in a manner that would provide some stability in the starting five for the next two years, rather than relying on a veteran likely coming in on a one-year contract. To say nothing of the third-year club option that checks in at another $15 million. That's entirely affordable considering the upside. Again, though, we're talking about the addition on paper. There's plenty of reason for pause when analyzing Senga as a potential trade target. While he's averaged decent innings when healthy, he also hasn't been particularly healthy in either of the last two years. He threw just five innings in 2024 before calf and shoulder injuries brought his season to its untimely end. A hamstring issue in June this season was likely a factor in some of his second-half issues that resulted in him spending the stretch run in Triple-A. And then you have to consider those struggles, too. Senga missed fewer bats and was much more liable to serve up barreled contact in July and August than in the months prior. For a team that struggled down the stretch like the Mets did last year, sending one of your highest-upside arms to the minor leagues speaks volumes about where they felt he was from a production standpoint. The upside is obviously tantalizing. Which is why, on paper, a pursuit of Senga on the part of the Padres makes a ton of sense. You get mid-to-front of the rotation production on at least a two-year contract. Numerous vacancies exist on that side of the staff. In an ideal world, you acquire Senga and stabilize your rotation in '26 and '27. But the upside is also likely a reason the Mets wouldn't give Senga away for a soft return, with the injury and performance woes in the last two seasons presenting an absurdly complex scenario. The Padres have so few resources for a trade in their organization at present. Can they afford to dispense with those resources in pursuit of a pitcher who offers so much variability in terms of outcomes? That would be difficult to reckon with when stability should be the name of the game. It borders on being a frustratingly mind-bending scenario for the San Diego Padres. Do you add a veteran starter looking to rebuild value on a reasonable contract or pursue the volatile arm that might cost you prospects but look healthy on the payroll (comparatively)? Not that we've heard anything on the part of interest the Padres could have. But considering where the rotation stands, any arm deemed available by way of the trade winds is going to be an obvious connection. Whether this particular arm could or should be a target, however, is a question with an answer that could roll on for miles. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals have a path to becoming AL Central favorites, but they'll need to dedicate themselves to upgrading the offense in every way this winter.View the full article

Brooklyn Park native John Klein was the most surprising name added to the 40-man roster for the casual Twins fan. He had a breakout year in the Minors this season between the Wind Surge starting rotation and the Saints bullpen. But what is his long-term outlook for his career, and did the Twins add him to the 40-man to be used exclusively as a reliever? View the full article

With the Winter Meetings on the horizon, there's no roster that's truly set in stone. MLB fans will see a flurry of trades and free agency moves as teams prepare for 2026 and the uncertainty beyond it. The Chicago Cubs are in one of the more complex situations in baseball. On one hand, they stormed back into relevancy by making the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and winning their first playoff series since 2017. On the other hand, they relied heavily on journeyman veterans who had career years, and it's looking like a foregone conclusion Kyle Tucker will sign somewhere else this winter. Even with his second-half struggles, the Cubs' offense would not have carried the team in the first half without the .926 OPS Tucker produced through the Midsummer Classic. When a team loses a player of that caliber, it's hard to anticipate the offense taking a step forward. Prior to any big moves Here is a look at the Cubs’ current depth chart for the corner outfield in a post-Kyle Tucker world. Right Field Let's start with the position that Tucker is vacating right field. Due to his injury, we did see Craig Counsell switch Tucker and Seiya Suzuki between right and DH late in the season and the playoffs. As things currently stand, Seiya is the starting right fielder, and that likely will not change unless there is a big free-agent signing. After hitting a career-high 32 home runs in 2025, Counsell will try to keep his bat in the middle of the lineup for the duration of the 2026 season. Defensively, having Pete Crow-Armstrong in center can help mitigate Suzuki’s shortcomings in the outfield. This is not to say Suzuki is inherently a poor outfielder, but the Cubs’ pitching relied on their excellent defense throughout 2025, so replacing Tucker with Suzuki for the majority of games is a blow that the pitching staff will surely feel at some point. Owen Caissie is the in-house option to replace Tucker that would allow Suzuki to spend more time at DH. Caissie remains the team’s top offensive prospect going into 2026 and will likely be a big part of the team’s plans in some way. In 2025, he only had 26 at-bats in the big leagues, where he tallied five hits, including a home run. There are two issues with moving Caissie to the top of the depth chart for right field. First, he was never regarded as a plus defender at any point in his minor-league career. He has a plus arm, and he moves around well enough for a bigger player, but he is not the Gold Glover that Kyle Tucker has been. The second issue with Caissie is the fear that throwing him into the starting lineup right out of the gate could create a similar situation that we saw at third base in 2025. Matt Shaw was largely underwhelming in 2025, and outside of a few hot streaks, he looked overmatched by major-league pitching. Caissie has more margin for error thanks to his prodigious power, but banking on a rookie to provide even 70% of what Tucker was in 2025 is pure foolishness. If the Cubs do end up pursuing a player like Alex Bregman or Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami as an upgrade over Shaw, it will take some pressure off Caissie to be an immediate difference maker. Left Field In left field, four-time Gold Glove winner Ian Happ will be the starter yet again. Although he had a slower start to 2025, he still put up the type of numbers we expect. He slashed .243/.342/.420 with 23 home runs and 79 RBI. The 31-year-old should produce similar numbers as he heads into the last year of the three-year, $61 million contract he signed in April of 2023. Much like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch, Happ in left is one of the lineup locks for the Cubs in 2026. The only other full-time outfielder on the 40-man roster is prospect Kevin Alcantara. Alcantara has been a fixture on the team’s top prospect rankings since they acquired him from the Yankees in the Anthony Rizzo trade. It is seemingly now or never for Alcantara to get his longer audition on the MLB roster, and like Caissie, he could also be included in trade rumors during this offseason. Alcantara is a speedy outfielder with a strong arm and some power, but his 6’6 frame suggests he should be able to tap into more of it. In 2025, Alcantara had four hits in 11 at-bats with the Cubs, but also struck out in four of those at-bats as well. He is a natural center fielder, but with Crow-Armstrong entrenched there, Alcantara will be vying for playing time at all three outfield positions. After the prospects, there are not too many notable names on the roster. First-round pick Ethan Conrad might have a spot on this list a year from now, but as it stands, there are not a ton of depth options outside of Alcantara. Infielder James Triantos got a few looks in left and center in 2025, and was added to the 40-man roster this November, but he will need to improve upon his .259 MiLB batting average in 2025, which fell from .300 in 2024. The next-highest prospect who isn’t in the lower levels of the minors is Brett Bateman. A contact-before-power hitter, Bateman played the entirety of 2025 with the Knoxville Smokies. He hit .261 with a .683 OPS in 94 games. He has a keen awareness of the strike zone and rarely swings and misses, but gets on base through ground balls that find holes. Bateman may have a role as a backup MLB outfielder one day, but that seems to be his ceiling. Corner outfielder Jordan Nwogu put up his best statistical season with Double-A Knoxville in 2025, hitting .280 in 368 plate appearances, although his power has evaporated. The 2020 third-round pick out of the University of Michigan will be 27 years old before Opening Day and is not much of a prospect anymore. Likewise, 2021 seventh-round pick Parker Chavers was promoted to Triple-A Iowa in 2025 but only had 15 hits in 101 plate appearances, which was good for a .176 batting average. At this point, neither Chavers or Nwogu look like a reliable major-league contributor. The Cubs will need to look for depth on the trade or free-agent market for 2026. Even if they decide not pursue a big name to replace Tucker, there are still players available who can be quality backups in case players like Alcantara or Caissie don’t deliver. Some of the names that could intrigue the Cubs are a reunion with Willi Castro or Mike Tauchman. They could also look to employ a part-time player like Austin Hays, Randall Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Lane Thomas or Alex Verdugo, among many other battle-tested veterans available this offseason. View the full article

Getting a productive outfield bat seems to be priority number one for JJ Picollo and the Kansas City Royals front office. After all, they ranked last in outfield fWAR, according to Fangraphs, and he's been open to the media about possibly trading from their starting pitching depth to get the outfielder they need to improve the lineup in 2026. While the Royals are open to a trade to acquire an outfielder, the free agent market has a lot of outfield possibilities. One candidate who could improve the Royals' outfield and lineup is Cody Bellinger, who's ranked No. 8 in DiamondCentric's Top-50 Free Agents list. Here's what Matt Trueblood of DiamondCentric said about Bellinger in his write-up. After posting a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 569 plate appearances in 2024, his final season with the Cubs, Bellinger had a resurgence with the Yankees last season. He posted a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 656 plate appearances and also hit 29 home runs and collected 98 RBI, 11 and 20 more than his totals in 2024 in those categories, respectively. Hence, it is not surprising that Bellinger is projected to earn a multi-year deal in the $25+ million AAV range this offseason and is already attracting interest from many teams, including the Phillies and even the Angels. If the Royals were to pursue Bellinger, it would require a significant long-term commitment from owner John Sherman. While Kansas City is a small-market team, it has not been averse to big deals in the past. That is evidenced by their mega extension to Bobby Witt Jr. before the 2024 season and their multi-year deals with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in the past calendar year. However, while Bellinger at the surface level could provide a boost to the Royals' lineup in the short and long term, the underlying metrics hint at a hitter who could struggle in his transition to Kauffman Stadium, especially as an outfielder who will be 31 next July. Why Bellinger is Enticing for the Royals Bellinger checks a lot of boxes for the Royals at first glance, especially when looking at his surface-level and plate discipline metrics. Last season with the Yankees, the 30-year-old outfielder slashed .272/.334/.480 with an .813 OPS. In addition to hitting 29 home runs, scoring 89 runs, and collecting 98 RBI, he also showed decent speed on the basepaths with 13 stolen bases. He also had 20 stolen bases in 2023 and 14 in 2022, which displays that Bellinger can be a 20-20 HR-SB threat for any team that acquires him. While the results were strong last season, his plate discipline may have been even more impressive. With the Yankees, he posted a 13.7% K rate, the lowest of his career. Furthermore, he also generated an 8.7% walk rate, his highest mark in that category since 2021, when he was still a member of the Dodgers. Thus, he produced a 0.63 BB/K ratio, his best mark in that category since 2020 (when it was 0.71) and the third-best ratio of his career (he had a 0.88 ratio in 2019). Over the last three years, he has seen significant improvement in his BB/K ratio, going from 0.25 in 2022 to 0.46 in 2023 and 0.51 in 2024. Lastly, he ranked in the upper percentiles in whiff percentage and pulled the ball effectively with the Yankees. His overall pull percentage ranked in the 80th percentile, and Pull Air percentage ranked in the 90th percentile. Those two factors led to his home run success in the Bronx. Those are both clear in his Statcast summary profile via TJ Stats. The Royals' outfielders ranked 17th in BB/K ratio last season with a 0.35 mark, according to Fangraphs. That said, only one Royals outfielder posted a better ratio than Bellinger: Mike Yastrzemski, who sported a 1.14 BB/K ratio. The next closest Royals to Bellinger were Cavan Biggio and Nick Loftin, who both posted 0.52 ratios. Therefore, Bellinger could provide a disciplined, high-contact approach sorely needed in the middle of the Kansas City lineup next season. The Issue with Bellinger The main problem with Bellinger is two-fold: his pop is questionable, and his bat speed isn't encouraging. In terms of the former, it doesn't seem likely that Bellinger's profile would fare well in Kauffman Stadium's spacious dimensions. According to Statcast's xHR by Park measurement, only 22 of his 29 home runs would've been gone at the K last season. Over his career, only 158 of Bellinger's 235 home runs would be out at Kaffuman. The only park with lower xHR was Oracle Park in San Francisco (138). Visually, Royals fans can see that many of Bellinger's home runs would've fallen short. Below is a spray chart of his 2025 hits, applied to Kauffman's dimensions. Next, below is a clip of a home run Bellinger hit against the Cubs at Yankee Stadium. It would've only cleared out of four other stadiums in baseball. Unsurprisingly, Kauffman Stadium was not one of them. The batted-ball percentiles and bat speed don't paint a pretty picture for Bellinger's outlook in Kansas City either. Even though he nearly hit 30 home runs, he seemed to outperform his exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit metrics. His average exit velocity ranked in the 28th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 35th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 28th percentile. His hard-hit percentage rolling chart also showcased him regressing heavily in the second half after a bit of a spike in the beginning of June. Bellinger was able to launch the ball well last season, as illustrated by his 38.6% LA Sweet-Spot percentage, which ranked in the 77th percentile. He is also able to square up the ball well, as his squared-up rate ranked in the 72nd percentile last year, according to Statcast. While those metrics are promising, his bat speed is the inverse. Last year, his bat speed averaged 70.1 MPH, which ranked in the 20th percentile according to Statcast. For context, that bat speed would be the seventh-worst mark of Royals hitters with 100 or more swings last season, as illustrated in the table below. In addition to the slow average swing velocity, his 6.5% hard-swing rate is the fifth-worst mark as well. He also would've sported the second-longest swing of this group at 7.8 feet. Long swings tend to lead to a lot of whiffs (notice Salvador Perez has the longest swing of this sample, and he had a 19.5% K rate last season). Thus, any regression in Bellinger's plate discipline could lead to a lot more swings and misses, and thus, strikeouts. That isn't exactly the profile the Royals would want from a hitter expected to be a long-term mainstay at the three-to-five spots in the batting order. Bellinger Isn't Worth the Cost There's no question that any available hitter the Royals are targeting this offseason will have warts in their profile. That said, as one of my friends and Inside the Crown writer David Lesky noted in a chat, "it's one thing to get a guy with warts, it's another thing to get that kind of guy who's going to take up 15-20% of your team's payroll for several years." Matthew of DiamondCentric estimated Bellinger would command an AAV of about $22 million in his next deal. Spotrac is putting his market value at $30,449,698. That is essentially Witt money, and even then, Witt doesn't hit the $30 million AAV mark in his contract until 2028, according to Roster Resource. Bellinger is a good player, but he's not a Witt-esque one. He's a good complementary piece, but not one that can carry a team long-term, especially on a massive contract. If he were, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees wouldn't have let him go. A bad contract on an aging "fringe" star with questionable skills can be debilitating to a franchise. Just ask the Colorado Rockies, who learned the hard way with Kris Bryant, or the Angels with Anthony Rendon. Let's hope the Royals don't make that same mistake with Bellinger. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox are in an interesting situation when it comes to their catching depth, as the 2025 season showed they need to improve upon major-league-ready options in the event of an injury. While the team has a quality starter in Carlos Narváez, it gets a bit thin further down the depth chart. Remember when Connor Wong got hurt and missed significant time, and then again during a playoff push when Narváez himself was injured and missed a few games? While he returned to the lineup, it was clear he was not at 100% for the remainder of the season after rushing back. With that, we’re going to take a look at the current state of the Red Sox's catching depth, going over the various options who could (or shouldn't) serve as backup plans in 2026. MLB: Boston Red Sox Starter: Carlos Narváez (118 games, .241/.306/.419 .726 OPS, 27 2Bs, 15 HR, 50 RBIs) Acquired in a trade with the New York Yankees at last year's Winter Meetings, Narváez burst onto the scene after winning the starting position. Known for his defense, Narváez’s bat woke up as he was a key offensive piece for the team in the first half, often finding himself batting fourth for manager Alex Cora. Offensively, he began to regress in the second half as a career high in innings behind the plate coupled with a knee injury in August (that would require offseason surgery) caught up to him. Narváez looks to enter 2026 fully recovered and build off of a surprisingly strong rookie season. Backup: Connor Wong (63 games, .190/.262/.238 .500 OPS, 8 2Bs, 7 RBIs) To say 2025 was a disappointing season for Wong is an understatement. The catcher regressed more than expected from his breakout 2024 campaign, as he dealt with a fractured left pinky in April along with a carpal boss on the back of his hand throughout the season. Wong is expected to enter the 2026 season as the backup barring any unforeseen moves and should he play at a level between his 2024 and 2025 seasons, that will be perfectly fine. His second-half numbers saw a slight improvement as he hit .235/.292/.333 with eight doubles and six RBIs in 29 games. Defensively, he still has work to do as he was awful in nearly every catching category besides framing, where he was league average. Triple-A Worcester Starter: Jason Delay (68 games [AA Columbus Clingstones/AAA Gwinnett Stripers], .200/.261/.257 .518 OPS, 10 2Bs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs) Delay follows the pattern of the Red Sox signing a veteran catcher who has experience in the majors to a minor-league deal to be a depth option in Triple-A. They did it last year with Seby Zavala and in 2024 with Tyler Heineman. Delay was not signed because of his bat, being a career .231/.295/.315 hitter in 134 career games with the Pirates. Offensively, you won’t get much, if any, power from Delay, but he will occasionally walk and has hit left-handed pitching a little better as shown by a career .254/.315/.343 slash line against them. Defensively, he has allowed 87 stolen bases during his time in the majors and thrown out just 16 potential base stealers, though he has yet to allow a passed ball. Delay is meant to work with the pitchers and catchers in Worcester, and should an injury occur in Boston, would be the first backstop added to the roster barring any other moves this offseason. Backup: Nathan Hickey (128 games, .234/.325/.408 .733 OPS, 23 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 17 HR, 75 RBIs) Listing Hickey as a catcher at this point is due is more necessity than reality. Hickey, who was drafted as a catcher, appeared behind the plate in just four games in 2025 after appearing there in just 47 games the season prior. Defensively, he’s only caught around 10% of base stealers. He’s now more of a first baseman than a backstop, but can still catch if needed despite a below-average arm and trouble blocking pitches in the dirt. Offensively, he has good raw power but swings-and-misses a bit. Hickey also is patient and knows the strike zone well. If he makes it to Boston, it'll likely be as a DH or first base option rather than a catcher. Emergency catcher: Enderso Lira (6 games [AA Portland Sea Dogs/AAA Worcester Red Sox], .154/.313/.385 .698 OPS, 1 HR, 2 RBIs) Lira, who received the second-highest bonus of the Red Sox's 2021 international free agent class, barely played in 2025 as he was often bounced between Portland and Worcester to be an emergency body on the roster. Offensively, there isn’t much to write home about as he has a short, direct swing and knows the strike zone well but has next-to-no power. Defensively, he is solid behind the plate and has an above-average arm that has a chance to improve as he grows older. Double-A Portland Starter: Brooks Brannon (93 games [A+ Greenville Drive/AA Portland Sea Dogs], .251/.308/.393 .701 OPS, 16 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs) Brannon, who was drafted in 2022, finally stayed healthy enough to showcase the talents that had the Red Sox originally interested in him after his first two seasons were cut short due to injuries. Despite appearing in 93 games, he only caught in 49 of them and saw time at first base and designated hitter. Defensively, he’s got good receiving skills behind the plate but is still learning how to frame and call games. He will also struggle with blocking pitches in the dirt but has an above-average arm. Offensively, he is able to generate impressive bat speed but will need to improve swing decisions. His power, however, is real, and when he does make contact, the ball is hit hard. It could be his carrying tool to the majors. Backup: Ronald Rosario (98 games, .201/.278/.321 .599 OPS, 10 2Bs, 11 HRs, 56 RBIs) Rosario, who is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, signed with the Red Sox in July of 2019 and made his Double-A debut in 2025 after ending the 2024 season on Portland’s development list. Rosario is aggressive at the plate and has yet to work counts on a frequent basis. He also seems to struggle against velocity, as most of his damage has been against fastballs in the low-90s or slower. Defensively, he appears to move well but can be error-prone when fielding the ball behind the dish. View the full article

The Miami Marlins were among the teams in pursuit of free agent outfielder Cedric Mullins before he reached a one-year, $7 million agreement with the Tampa Bay Rays, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Fish On First heard the same from a source familiar with the club's thinking. The 31-year-old Mullins would have been a potential bounce-back candidate after posting 1.3 fWAR in 2025, his lowest ever in a full-length season. Even without starting on a daily basis, he continued to provide an intriguing combination of power (17 HR) and speed (22 SB) while also drawing walks at a career-high 10% rate. However, the quality of his defense in center field has slipped. It's unclear whether the Marlins intended to use Mullins in center or transition the former All-Star to a corner spot in deference to Jakob Marsee. It caught FOF off-guard last month when the Marlins were linked to Mike Yastrzemski (who remains available). Although they aren't targeting left-handed outfielders per se to add to a group that already includes Marsee, Kyle Stowers and Griffin Conine, they are open-minded to veterans with good offensive track records and a willingness to accept short-term deals. View the full article

What a way to begin the offseason! The first major free agent came off the board on Wednesday, and unlike in past off-seasons, it was the Blue Jays who made the first strike, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, with the hopes that not only would the 30-year-old lead the Blue Jays to postseason glory in 2026, but throughout the deal. It's not hard to see why the Jays targeted Cease; no pitcher in baseball has more strikeouts over the last five seasons. He has finished top five in Cy Young voting twice in his career, and he’s been incredibly durable, making at least 32 starts in every season since 2021. Pair all that with the fact that he seems to be a good fit in the clubhouse and that there may be some more untapped potential in his arm, and it's a no-brainer to see why the Blue Jays were willing to make him their ace for the next seven years. With any free agent signing, especially one of this magnitude, there is always risk involved. What if all the walks and fly balls he allows catch up to him? And what if he actually does get hurt? All of those concerns are valid, and honestly, there isn't a pitcher in baseball who doesn’t come with at least some level of concern, but it's that last point in particular that should be explored more. Pitcher health is never a for-sure thing, but the Blue Jays have historically been able to do a good job of keeping their veteran starting pitchers healthy. Kevin Gausman has made 30+ starts in each of his four seasons in Toronto, Chris Bassitt did the same in his three years here, and, dating back to additions like Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Berríos, many of the starters they have brought into the organization have stayed healthy. Is this simply because the team can identify which pitchers will hold up physically? Is this something the coaching and medical staff can teach? Or is there some amount of luck involved? The most likely answer is that it's probably a little bit of all three, but pitcher injuries are rampant all over baseball, and the Blue Jays are going to have to make sure the staff stays healthy if they want to repeat as American League champions in 2026. As things currently stand, the rotation of Gausman, Cease, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Berríos, and the newly acquired Cody Ponce looks good on paper, but it does come with some concerns. Yesavage took a massive innings leap in ‘25, Gausman is entering his age-35 season, Berríos ended the year on the injured list, Bieber is still building back up from Tommy John, and as good as Ponce was in the KBO, returning to MLB comes with its uncertainties as well. So, it's crucial that Cease stays healthy and effective on the mound, as pitching injuries could be a significant downfall for the 2026 Jays team. Father Time comes for everyone, and it will come for the Blue Jays pitchers, too. Aaron Nola was long known as one of the most durable pitchers in baseball. He had made 30+ starts in seven straight seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season) until the injury bug got to him, as he made only 17 starts in 2025. Gerrit Cole is another example. From 2017 to 2023, he was the model of consistency. However, at the age of 33, he missed the first 75 games of the season due to an elbow injury, which ultimately led to him missing the entire 2025 season as he underwent Tommy John surgery. Now, this isn't just a problem that the Blue Jays are trying to solve; pitching injuries have been an epidemic around Major League Baseball. It got to the point where, in December of 2024, the league released a study that it called MLB’s Report on Pitcher Injuries. There's a lot to it, but some key findings were that velocity chasing, pitch design trends, and max-effort throwing all put more pressure on the elbow and shoulder, contributing to an increased risk of injury. Now, to turn this back to Dylan Cease, his fastball velocity was the highest of his career in 2025, averaging 97.1 mph, and it wasn't just his fastball that saw a velocity spike: His four-seam fastball, slider, and knuckle curve were all thrown at the hardest average velocity of his career, and the spin rates on each pitch were at or near his career highs as well. Now, there is a lot more that leads to injuries than just throwing harder. There are several cases of pitchers throwing harder and continuing to have success. There’s no reason to think Cease couldn't follow that path. Yet, injuries can feel random at times. Yimi García injured his ankle when he slipped getting into a cold tub back in July. In 2015, Michael Saunders injured his knee by just stepping on a sprinkler head, and all the way back in 1993, Rickey Henderson got frostbite because he left an ice pack on his leg too long and had to miss three games. The real question becomes, do the Blue Jays know what it will take to keep Cease healthy? In reality, they just might. They have a proven track record of doing so, and according to reporting by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Cease has already met with pitching coach Pete Walker and assistant pitching coach Sam Greene, who answered questions about how they could help him grow into a true number one starter. One can assume that included coming up with a plan to keep him on the mound. The Blue Jays just made their biggest financial investment in a free agent in franchise history. So, no matter how you look at it, the team is going to be relying on Cease heavily as they look to repeat as American League champions. Keeping him healthy and effective will go a long way toward making that dream a reality. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays had an interesting visitor stop by their Florida facility on Wednesday. Would you believe that it was free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker? That's the news spreading around MLB circles on Wednesday night. According to Robert Murray, MLB Insider for FanSided, Tucker indeed made a visit to the facility. The Blue Jays have already been busy in the free agent market, with the Winter Meetings set to kick off on Sunday in Orlando, Fla. Toronto has added Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to its pitching staff. What would it mean if the Blue Jays, who desperately want to get back to the World Series after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, could bring Tucker to play at Rogers Centre? It would be an incredible addition for Blue Jays manager John Schneider and his team. Imagine Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the same starting lineup, mashing baseballs all around MLB ballparks. Let's take a look at some numbers and data concerning Tucker. He was the fifth overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft by the Houston Astros. He spent seven seasons with the Astros, winning two World Series titles while there. Tucker had a slash line of .274/.353/.516 with 125 home runs and 417 RBIs for Houston. But Tucker was traded to the Cubs in December 2024 for infielder Isaac Paredes, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and outfielder Cam Smith. Tucker's final numbers with the Cubs were decent, but they really slid down later in the season after he got off to a really hot start. Overall, Tucker posted a slash line of .266/.377/.474, hit 22 homers, and stole 25 bases. He also drew 87 walks, making sure he got on base as much as possible for the Cubs' big hitters behind him. The Blue Jays are also interested in bringing back free agent infielder Bo Bichette, too. What would the Jays do if they end up signing Tucker? Would they just let Bichette go? Or, could they look to maybe sign both of them? That would really stretch their pocketbook. All we can say for now is that with the Winter Meetings starting up in a few days, it will soon be time for the Blue Jays and Tucker's representatives to have some heart-to-heart conversations. View the full article

After signing Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to kick off their offseason, the Blue Jays find themselves with a surplus of starting pitchers. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage are locks for the 2026 rotation, as is Cease. That leaves one spot left for Ponce and José Berríos, unless the Jays are planning to use a six-man cycle. Berríos, who has started more games than any other pitcher in MLB over the last eight years, has three years and just over $64 million remaining on his contract. Yet, it seems unlikely the Jays would have committed $30 million to Ponce, the reigning KBO MVP, if they weren't going to give him a chance to start. One way to clear up the rotation logjam could be a trade, and to that point, The Athletic's Mitch Bannon reports that the Blue Jays are "willing to listen" to trade offers for Berríos. That doesn't mean a deal is likely, especially since Berríos is coming off a down year that ended with an elbow injury. In other words, it might be hard to find a taker for the veteran and his contract. Still, a Berríos trade is now a possibility that Jays fans must at least consider. So, do you think the Jays should shop Berríos? Which teams do you think might be interested, and what would you be looking for in return? Have your say in the comments below! Featured image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images. View the full article

On December 2, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that their seven-year, $210 million contract with Dylan Cease had been finalized. Today on X, the New York Post's Jon Heyman reported the financial structure of the deal. When the Cease deal was first reported, pending the results of a physical, it was widely believed that the contract included deferrals. According to Heyman and others, the total amount deferred will be $64 million. The salary to be paid from 2026-2032 is $123 million, plus a $23 million signing bonus. Also, the contract contains a limited no-trade clause. The timing of the deferred payments Toronto will make to Cease was not reported. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported that the AAV of the deal was close to $27 million ($189 million divided by seven). That would make the present value of the deferrals for Competitive Balance Tax (“CBT”) purposes approximately $43 million ($189 million less $146 million in salary and bonus). It should be noted that under the CBA, teams must fund a deferral by the second July 1 following the season in which the deferral was earned. In other words, Toronto would have to fund the $10 million deferral for 2026 by July 1, 2028. The amount funded is the present value of the deferred amount using a 5% discount rate. A rough estimate is that Toronto's first funding payment will be approximately $7.5 million. From the team’s perspective, the primary advantage of deferrals is the reduction of the AAV used for CBT purposes. Given that Toronto pays the CBT, every little bit helps! Featured image courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Cubs face a daunting challenge of pitching management for 2026. They should get Justin Steele back about halfway through the season, but they'll need to monitor and limit his workload. Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton are all a full go for next season, but each missed time in 2025 with injuries, which increases the chances that they'll do so again next year. That's why they extended a qualifying offer to Imanaga, even after extending Colin Rea. It's why they're still looking for upgrades to a rotation that nominally boasts six or seven viable starters. Matthew Boyd will be another source of uncertainty in that group. He pitched 180 innings in the regular season and made three more starts in the playoffs, a year after making just eight regular-season appearances in a return from Tommy John surgery. Boyd wore down in the second half and hit the wall completely in October, and now, his 2026 season is scheduled for an early start. On Wednesday afternoon, Boyd made an appearance on Foul Territory, a popular web show and podcast, to announce his plans to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic next March. The last time the WBC was contested, Japan beat the United States in the final game, thanks largely to better pitching depth. With rare exceptions, Team USA has struggled to find high-end hurlers willing to risk the nudge to their odometer that comes from ramping up to high-intensity competition earlier. Boyd might only pitch twice during the tournament, but it will mean preparing more and earlier during the offseason and ramping up faster early in spring training. That will exacerbate the risk of fatigue from Boyd late in the season, and reduce the chances that he's still going strong come October. Thus, the Cubs have yet another reason to be ready; to be wary; and to load up on pitching. Steele will be more of a second-half factor. Jaxon Wiggins could be, too, if he stays healthy. Boyd might not be the only Cubs hurler to pitch in the WBC, though. It's very possible that Imanaga, Javier Assad and/or Daniel Palencia will also get the call. Every pitcher whom the team sends to the global tournament is one who's more likely to find trouble down the stretch. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins have to be assiduous in continuing to add, so they can absorb whatever losses occur as the season wears on. In the meantime, this is further expansion for the Cubs' global brand, and more importantly, it's fun. The WBC is a delightful event, and although it might not be good for the MLB teams who allow their pitchers to participate, it's good that it exists (and continues to grow). Boyd's presence will make an exciting tournament even more so, and increases the chances of the United States reclaiming the title they last won in 2017. That, in itself, is reason to celebrate the news. View the full article

We don't know the extent to which the Chicago Cubs attempted (or might still attempt) to keep Kyle Tucker on the North Side long-term. The fact that they (seemingly) aren't pushing to retain him is an indictment of the organization's way of doing business. In all likelihood, they'll have a new right fielder in 2026—and it's likely someone already in-house. The most likely scenario is that Seiya Suzuki resumes his role (at least part-time) on the outfield grass, freeing up the team to rotate different bats through the designated hitter spot. While his defensive shortcomings were part of the reason he was pushed out upon Tucker's arrival last offseason, there's a certain flexibility attached to not having a permanent designated hitter. It would also allow the Cubs to ease in some of their imminent arrivals from the farm who are destined for more permanent roles in 2026. Most notable among that cohort is Owen Caissie. Let's step into fantasy land for a moment. Assume a world wherein Suzuki retains his post as the team's designated hitter, with Caissie taking the full-time gig in right field. If such a world exists, is it possible that he'd be able to approximate the production that Tucker generated in his lone season with the Cubs? The important distinction to make before diving into such an imaginary world is that this thread is not about whether Caissie can be Tucker, in a broad sense. When healthy, Tucker is one of the best all-around players in the major leagues. It’s fairer, though, to ponder whether the 2026 iteration of Caissie can provide the Cubs with something akin to what they got from 2025 Kyle Tucker, and only that version of him. Tucker's 2025 campaign included a .266/.377/.464 line, with nearly identical strikeout (14.7%) and walk (14.6%) rates. He hit 22 homers, stole 25 bases, and ended the year with a 136 wRC+ that trailed only Michael Busch among Cubs regulars. His 4.5 fWAR lagged only Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.4) and Nico Hoerner (4.8). His defense wasn't quite at the level of years prior in the eyes of the metrics, but his Fielding Run Value (which accounts for both range and arm) was 0, so he was essentially average. That year was far from Tucker's best, but the all-around play for which he's known shone through. The approach was elite; the power showed up when he was healthy; and he was strong on the bases. Factor in the adequate defense and you've got a player succeeding from pretty much every angle, even when accounting for some second half struggles wrought by health issues. Is that something that the Cubs could possibly hope for Caissie to replicate? Probably not. Caissie made 433 trips to the plate with Iowa in 2025. He carried a .286/.386/.551 line, with 22 home runs and five steals. His strikeout rate lingered around 28%, while he walked at a 13.2% clip. His wRC+ came in at 139. His 27 plate appearances in the big leagues showed where the adjustment will be needed, as he struck out 11 times, walked just once, and wasn't able to get the power going within such a minuscule sample (.154 ISO). Even if you translated Caissie’s production from Triple A directly to the next level, you're not getting the all-around production someone like Tucker provides. He lacks the approach, and he's not the same quality of baserunner. At best, you're getting the power that Tucker had and some of the ability to work a walk. Perhaps even more so, considering Caissie’s power upside. The strikeout avoidance and the steals are glaring areas where Tucker's departure would be notable, should Caissie assume a full-time role. One does have to wonder, though, the impact that an upgrade in the power alone could have on the offense considering the wealth of contact and baserunning skills that exist throughout the rest of this lineup. For what it's worth, STEAMER projects a .237/.315/.405 line (good for a 103 wRC+) in 322 plate appearances for Caissie in 2026. Given that we don't know what his role for next season will look like, it's a justifiably conservative projection. It would, though, seem to indicate that Caissie would be cycling through as more of a reserve outfielder and designated hitter than an actual outfield regular. That should probably be the expectation at this point, given Suzuki's prior work in right field. It’s also important to consider the idea that perhaps the Cubs don’t need the replication of Tucker’s production to come solely from that position. Moisés Ballesteros is going to be a factor in all of this, too. STEAMER likes him for a .266/.330/.408 line (108 wRC+) and a more aesthetically pleasing output in the strikeout (17.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates. With him as part of the equation, you’re introducing two left-handed hitters with different swings and different skill sets. Add Suzuki in and you’re cycling three players through two spots, allowing Craig Counsell to deploy any of the trio within the platoon advantage that can maximize outcomes. That element starts to get the Cubs in a direction where they’re able to work toward getting the same (if not better) production in the aggregate, rather than relying on a single player to do so. It changes the calculus altogether. Ultimately, the Cubs don't need Caissie (or Ballesteros, for that matter) to be Tucker, but they're going to need to find ways to at least replicate some of the all-around production he provided throughout much of last season. If Caissie can provide coverage in the areas where he excels (power and getting on base), that would be a massive boon to the group at large, even if the other areas where Tucker contributed suffer as a result. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins aren't actually good, right now. They have the potential to be, if they get more from their latent talent in 2026 than they have gotten from many of the same players over the last two years, but they're not currently a competitive team. As they embark on their offseason work, they have to hope they can spend some money to support the roster and take it to the next level. Unfortunately, the opposite course might be their required path. Let's imagine that the Twins' budget is as tight as we've all worried it would be. In that case, they're not only unlikely to make a significant investment to improve at first base or DH or to shore up their thin bullpen, but in danger of having to trade one or more of their expensive (though stellar) veterans: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Pablo López and Joe Ryan. They would, therefore, have virtually no chance of surging back into contention. They'd also start feeling both time and personal pressure to move Buxton (who wants to play for a winner) and Jeffers (a free agent after 2026), in particular. Meanwhile, another lost year would mean launching the clock forward on López and Ryan, each of whom can be free agents at the end of the 2027 season. In such a situation, there's a case to be made that the Twins would be best served by hitting the big red button and blowing up the current roster, in a more profound way than they did at the 2025 trade deadline. That's particularly true because of the young talent they've already amassed, and the influx they're likely to see next July. MLB Pipeline ranked the Twins as the second-best farm system in baseball after the deadline. bolstered by the haul from their July fire sale. FanGraphs is much less bullish, ranking them just 12th, but even that is above-average. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, for the moment, with Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Eduardo Tait as the big four in a very deep group. They also have some good young players in the majors already, under long-term team and cost control. Luke Keaschall is the face of that cohort, but it also includes several intriguing pitchers. So far, the team hasn't gotten the big-league production for which they might have hoped from Zebby Matthews or David Festa, and it's still not clear what Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya will become, but there's a good deal of young talent clustered around the big-league roster already. That group will be supplemented, if the Twins have gotten their recent reorganization in Latin America right, by new waves of teenage talent from that part of the world. They have Eduardo Beltre, a 2026 breakout candidate, and added some exciting players from the low minors in July—though they then fired several of the scouts who helped find them. Much more quickly and tangibly, they should get help from a high pick in the first round of next summer's MLB Draft. They won't know exactly where they pick in July until the MLB Draft Lottery at next week's Winter Meetings, but they have roughly a 50/50 shot of nabbing a top-three selection. They also officially received a competitive-balance pick this week, though it won't come until the tail end of the second round. It's not an easy needle to thread, but the Twins could end up with a once-in-a-generation farm system by the 2026 trade deadline. If they trade players as good and valuable as Buxton, López or the others, theirs will become the best farm system anyone has had in the 2020s. That's not the same as having the best farm system in the game at a given moment; it's a much bigger thing. When people talk about teams who plunge into rebuilding with gusto (or even glee), they often cite the 2010s Cubs and Astros. Those clubs are sometimes held responsible, in public circles, for the culture of tanking and aggressive boom-bust team-building that took over the game in their wake. In truth, though, those teams were merely responding to the rules and incentives the game foisted on them when the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement altered the nature of draft spending and the competitive-balance tax. They were also scrambling to make up for unintentional multi-year downturns. They had to take their medicine for almost a half-decade before emerging as powerhouses, but they each succeeded in doing so, to some degree. There was also an exemplar who came before those two teams. The late-2000s Royals were a bad team, but not on purpose. Frustrated by what he saw as a stagnating roster around him, ace Zack Greinke demanded a trade, and they accommodated him by shipping him to Milwaukee. In the wake of that deal, Kansas City was semi-voluntarily bad for another few years—but between some good draft picks, a couple of huge hits on Latin American talent, and the accelerant that was the Greinke trade, they also built the best farm system anyone had had in a decade or so. As was true with the Cubs and Astros, that eventually paid dividends. The Royals contended in 2013, though they missed the postseason with an 86-76 record. The next year, they snuck into the playoffs, but then reeled off an improbable run to Game 7 of the World Series. In 2015, they won a second straight pennant, and this time, they finished the job, winning their first championship since 1985 by beating the Mets in five games. With an aggressive set of rebuilding moves this winter and during the summer of 2026, the Twins could be an even faster-moving version of those Royals. They have Jenkins as one prospective cornerstone of the next great team. If the lottery breaks right, they should have a chance to add another player of that caliber. The rest comes down to continued successes in scouting and (especially) player development, because Keaschall, Culpepper, and many young arms already in the system have that kind of upside—but it must be realized to become important. Unlike the Royals, the Twins play in a market with average-plus ceiling, if they can dig out of the hole they find themselves in now. They have a higher initial baseline in their favor, and the rules won't drag on their attempts to sustain success the way they did with the Cubs and Astros. It only works if they raise the stakes and win their gamble, but the Twins might be better off trading some of their stars to go from a great farm system to a truly transcendent, change-your-fortunes kind of corps. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox need a first baseman—there’s no question about that. While Triston Casas is still on the roster, the young first baseman has shown an inability to remain on the field due to various injuries. While there have been tough luck injuries in the case of 2024 and 2025, not many bring up the fact that he missed significant time at the end of his rookie season in 2023 (his final game being on September 14) and only played in 103 games in 2022 between the minor leagues and Boston. While Casas states he plans to be ready for Opening Day, it’s highly likely he opens the year with Triple-A Worcester to get constant reps before coming back up to Boston. While the team had Nathaniel Lowe play first base for part of August and most of September, he wound up being designated for assignment and then non-tendered by the team to open up a roster spot on the 40-man roster. Now, the only healthy options currently on the 40-man roster are Romy González and Tristan Gray. Both are better in a utility role, moving around the field constantly. In González’s case he may be in line for significant play time at second base depending on how the rest of the offseason shapes out. With that, the Red Sox may be willing to move on from Casas due to his injury history and look towards what is a rather interesting first base group in this free agent class. Already one quality first baseman is gone as Josh Naylor re-signed with Seattle for five-years and $92.5 million. Despite Naylor being the first domino to fall, there are still plenty of options that could fit with the Red Sox. Pete Alonso (3.6 fWAR) Alonso is very much the top first baseman on the market and is DiamondCentric’s 10th overall free agent this offseason. He was previously a free agent last year before resigning with the New York Mets with an opt-out after the 2025 season in hopes that he would have a rebound season. To say that worked out would be an understatement. Playing in all 162 games for the second straight season, Alonso slashed .272/.347/.524, good for an OPS of .871 and a wRC+ of 141, tied for the second-best of his career. He also had 41 doubles, a triple, 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, which would have made him the team leader in home runs and RBIs and tied for the team lead in doubles with Jarren Duran. Alonso very much loves to swing big, having struck out 162 times last year, but his power output led to his fourth straight All-Star game selection, his first career Silver Slugger and his highest MVP finish since the 2022 season. What makes Alonso a great target is he hits the ball hard—really hard. His average exit velocity (93.5 mph), barrel percentage (18.9%), and hard-hit rate (54.4%) are all some of the highest in the league. And he fits right in with the team’s approach to increasing bat speed as his average was 75.3 mph. Of course, Alonso doesn’t come without his own fair share of issues. As a batter, he can be prone to chasing as he did 27.4% of the time last season while whiffing on 25.6% of his swings overall. Even then, his defense is what could be a real issue down the road. Last season, he finished with 10 errors and finished with a fielding percentage of .992. Dig deeper, and you'll find that Alonso finished last season with -9 defensive runs saved along with a fielding run value of -8 and an outs above average of -9. In short, he was a very bad fielder, even if his fielding percentage says otherwise. With Alonso entering his age-31 season and projected to earn a multi-year contract that would see him play into his late-30s, he will very likely be forced into becoming a full-time designated hitter. Munetaka Murakami Murakami has made a name for himself since 2019 when he truly broke out in his second season with the Yakult Swallows. Since becoming a starter that season, he has hit 30 or more homes in all but two of his years in Japan. In the case of those two seasons, he missed significant time and is coming off of a 2025 season that saw him hit 22 home runs in 56 games. For fairness, I’m only including his Central League stats and not his Eastern League stats since the Eastern League is the Pacific Central League’s equivalent to MLB’s minor leagues. In those 56 games, he would go on to hit .273/.379/.663, good for an OPS of 1.043. Yet most of his slugging came from his home runs, as he only hit seven doubles, a trend that continued from 2024 where he had just 13 doubles in 143 games. He also drove in 47 runs. Murakami can hit. There’s no denying that, as he has plus-plus exit velocity when he makes contact. When he makes contact is an issue, though, as he has significant swing-and-miss concerns where it seems sometimes he might be selling out at the plate to hit a home run. Last season in just 56 games, Murakami had a whiff rate of 36.7% and a strikeout rate of 28.6%, both an improvement over his 2024 numbers but still concerning when you remember that players from Japan tend to see their swing-and-miss numbers get worse in MLB. It could take some time for Murakami to adjust to velocity as he hit just .095 against pitches 93 mph or faster in 2025, a slight improvement from his 2024 average of .093. That being said, one positive besides his amazing power is that Murakami walks. Last year he had a 14.3% walk rate, Defensively, Murakami has played third base and first base along with a little outfield in the mix, but since 2021 has mainly been a third baseman. Though with 100 errors at the position in 1760 fielding chances, he is likely to play first base or even be a designated hitter with a MLB team. Should the Red Sox pursue him, it would most likely be as a first baseman. He will eventually be a great hitter, but the Red Sox may not want to spend time getting Murakami up to speed against major-league velocity. Some scouts believe he’ll have to change his swing if he wants to succeed in the majors and if the Red Sox are going to invest the money he’s expected to get (around $92 million as projected by DiamondCentric, plus a posting fee), the Red Sox need to make sure they get the right hitter for the job. Kazuma Okamoto Okamoto, who is also from Japan, is a more complex case than Murakami. While older (he’ll turn 30 at the end of June compared to Murakami entering his age-26 season), Okamoto may be more what the Red Sox are looking for in a first baseman. Much like Murakami, he missed significant time last year, playing in just 69 games where he hit .327/.416/.598 with a 1.014 OPS. He also had 21 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Okamoto has spent 11 years playing for the Yomiuri Giants where he has showcased great contact skills and displayed power to go with it, hitting .277/.361/.521 with 248 career home runs. Last season, Okamoto finished with the exact same walk and strikeout rate as well, 11.3%. Okamoto doesn’t hit the ball as hard as Murakami or Alonso, but he still rocked a hard-hit rate of 32.1% in 2025 and his contact skills may put him above the other two, as he made contact on 80.4% of his swings in 2025. He has the kind of skill set a competing team looks for in a first baseman: a combination of power and average, the ability to consistently put the ball in play and limit strikeouts, and work a double-digit walk rate. The latter showcased his keen eye and ability to work the strike zone. Likewise, Okamoto has improved his contact against velocity over the past few seasons, showing that he might transition from the NPB to MLB at a faster rate than Murakami. In his career, Okamoto has had a plate appearance end with pitches of 93 mph or faster 289 times. In those 289 plate appearances, Okamoto hit .289/.383/.534 with 19 home runs and 61 RBIs, far better numbers than his Japanese counterpart. Defensively, Okamoto has played first base, third base and outfield and is currently viewed as an above-average defender at first base, something that could prove to be a tie-breaking factor, especially for Craig Breslow as he hopes to improve the defense at first base in Boston. Okamoto may have the lowest ceiling of this trio, but he balances a reasonable floor with an acceptable price tag (projected for four years, $68 million). There are other first basemen out there, but these three seem to be the best fit for the Red Sox at the moment. Of course, should they decide to go in a different direction and make a big signing for third base or second base, they could always trade for a first baseman on a cheap contract or employ a platoon of Casas and González. Either way, infield upgrades should be coming to Boston soon enough. View the full article