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In 2023, the Brewers made a significant change in how they approached the MLB Draft. They selected a large number of high-school players and were able to sign many of them to overslot bonuses, stocking the lower levels of their minor leagues with raw talent and potential. They've cleaved to that strategy ever since, and the results look very promising. One of the biggest wins thus far was selecting Cooper Pratt in the sixth round of that 2023 draft, paying him second-round money and watching him jump onto industry-wide top-100 prospect lists after his first full season. Pratt is a standout defensive shortstop with a strong and accurate arm. He won the Minor League Gold Glove Award at shortstop in 2024 and remained stout there in 2025. At 6-foot-3, Pratt moves well. He has the range to make all the necessary plays and the arm to be a regular shortstop at the highest level. Pratt is also savvy on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases this season with an 86% success rate. At the plate, Pratt makes contact at an above-average rate, but he hasn’t consistently hit the ball with authority and has struggled against premium velocity. As a 20-year-old promoted to Double A, Pratt saw his numbers slip from .277/.362/.406 to .238/.343/.348. Last winter, as an ascending up-the-middle prospect, Pratt might have been a major piece in a trade for Kyle Tucker or Garret Crochet. Keith Law, for example, ranked Pratt 44th last offseason, while he ranked Kyle Teel 37th and Braden Montgomery 38th. They became the two main prospects the White Sox received for Crochet. Cam Smith ranked 43rd and was the prospect headliner in the Tucker trade. Could the Brewers have sold high on Pratt last offseason and added a key contributor to what ended up being a 97-win team? It's not that simple—Crochet, clearly, would have cost at least two of Pratt, while the Tucker deal also involved a valuable big-leaguer going from Chicago to Houston. Still, that's the caliber of prospect he was heading into his second full season as a professional. This winter, Pratt’s stock will likely be down, FanGraphs published their Brewers 2026 prospect list, with Pratt moving from third in the organization (with a 50 overall grade) to eighth (with a 45 grade). Pratt is still very young and has plenty of time to grow into more power and make adjustments, but if this lower assessment is the industry consensus, then in the short term, he is likely to drop from top-100 lists and may have lost some trade value. Long-term, the question appears to be whether becoming a solid everyday shortstop is now Pratt’s ceiling, instead of something more like his floor. It's worth noting, though, that while FanGraphs has soured on him, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ranked him third in the Brewers system again this fall, and each has the same grade (55, with a High risk grade) on him that they had last year. The tools haven't collapsed or anything, and he held his own at age 20 in the upper minors. There's cause for some concern, but not yet any call for panic. Jesús Made has unequivocally overtaken Pratt as the Brewers' shortstop of the future, and should begin 2026 at Double-A Biloxi. The team can continue to develop Pratt at Triple-A Nashville, where he will be one of the youngest regulars—or they can trade him now, hedging their bet that he becomes a star and taking the buyout on their winning draft wager. What do you think? Should the Brewers cash in on Pratt this winter, or will he grow into his 2024 promise and become an upper-tier big-league shortstop? View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have spent the early offseason in the thick of speculation, as the industry waits to see how far their teardown will go. Joe Ryan’s name has been tossed around. Byron Buxton rumors refuse to die down. Now, another player has entered the conversation. Ryan Jeffers might not be the most obvious trade chip, but his age, contract status, and offensive growth make him a realistic target for a contender in need of catching stability. For the Philadelphia Phillies, that need might soon become a top priority. Philadelphia is sitting at a crossroads as it approaches 2026. J.T. Realmuto is the premier free-agent catcher on the market and has been everything the Phillies hoped for since the moment he arrived from Miami. Two All-Star appearances and countless big moments frame his reputation as one of the best backstops of his era. The problem is timing. Realmuto is entering his age-35 season, and the Phillies must determine whether to extend their relationship or pivot to a younger, more affordable alternative. There is no internal candidate ready to replace him, which means they will either need to re-sign Realmuto or find a veteran replacement from the outside. The Phillies are juggling more than one significant decision. Kyle Schwarber is also a free agent. He remains one of the top middle-of-the-order bats available. Bringing back both Schwarber and Realmuto would require serious financial gymnastics. Losing Realmuto, however, would require the front office to replace production somewhere else. That is why Philadelphia has closely monitored the catching market. If his market continues to heat up, the Phillies may shift their focus to a trade, and it could lead them to call the Twins about Jeffers. Jeffers is coming off a solid season, wherein he slashed .266/.356/.397 (a 108 OPS+) in 119 games. He continues to provide above-average offensive value at a premium defensive position. Over the past three seasons, he has posted a 113 OPS+ in 1,264 plate appearances, with a 10.8% walk rate boosting his offensive value in 2025. Compared to Realmuto’s expected price tag, Jeffers looks like an efficient alternative, projected to make $6.6 million in arbitration. For Philadelphia, the appeal is clear. Jeffers would stabilize the position while allowing the front office to allocate resources elsewhere. A Jeffers trade would also signal that the Phillies are comfortable passing on Realmuto, which could open the door to retaining Schwarber and left-handed starter Ranger Suárez. If Philadelphia prefers roster flexibility, Jeffers checks a lot of boxes. It's the very kind of move, in fact, that first brought Realmuto to them. Philadelphia traded three players to the Marlins in early 2019 for Realmuto, who had two years of team control remaining at the time. Minnesota’s involvement is also logical. After their trade-deadline fire sale, the Twins have made it clear that virtually every veteran on the roster is available for trade. Their activity with Philadelphia last summer adds another wrinkle. The organizations completed deals involving Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, and that familiarity can sometimes streamline negotiations. The Twins know the Phillies’ system well, and Philadelphia has a clear understanding of Minnesota’s priorities as it continues its retool. The proposed return reflects that dynamic. The Phillies could acquire Jeffers, and the Twins could receive multiple prospects in return. A potential package might include left-handed pitcher Mavis Graves (ranked 25th in the system by MLB Pipeline) and catcher Caleb Ricketts (ranked 22nd). Graves pitched all of 2025 at High A and posted a 4.41 ERA, with a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 13.7% walk rate. Ricketts could add catching depth to the Twins’ system, as the 25-year-old posted a 111 wRC+ while reaching Double-A Reading last year. Other players who could be discussed include catcher (and first baseman) Kehden Hettiger, third baseman Carson DeMartini, right-handers Ramon Marquez and Alex McFarlane, and outfielder TJayy Walton. None of these names would headline a blockbuster, but they fit the pattern of depth-focused prospect accumulation the Twins pursued at the deadline. This kind of trade would not grab national headlines the way Ryan or Buxton speculation might, but it speaks to where the Twins currently stand. A controllable catcher with offensive upside will always hold value, and contenders like the Phillies are preparing for significant decisions in the coming weeks. If Philadelphia decides to move on from Realmuto and turn toward a younger option, the path could run straight through Minnesota. In fact, the Twins might even be in position to hold out for a higher price. Does a trade between the Phillies and Twins make sense? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Last month, Jesse Burrill looked at the Blue Jays’ depth on the corners. Today, I’ll be looking at the middle infield options throughout the organization. In 2025, 10 different Blue Jays took a turn at either second or short, with half of them spending time on both sides of the keystone. As much fun as Myles Straw’s turn at second base was, I don’t think he’s in consideration for playing time there this season. Similarly, Will Wagner and Buddy Kennedy’s one start each at second would have them out of contention, even if they weren’t already off the team. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Michael Stefanic both made it to double-digits up the middle, but they have elected free agency and are unlikely to be back. So, let’s start with a look at the remaining five players who have been there before. Andrés Giménez — fWAR: 1.0, wRC+: 70, Fielding Run Value: +6 The lock. The Jays traded for Giménez last year, and he is under contract through the 2029 season. He’s not going anywhere. The Platinum Glover missed time due to injury in 2025, which likely cost him another defensive award, but on the defensive side of the ball, he was exactly as advertised. There was hope (especially when he hit the first Jays home run of the 2025 season) that his bat would show some improvement, but instead he set career low marks for average (.210), SLG (.313), OPS (.598) and wRC+ (70). This feels like a bit of a repeat from heading into last season, but we all know the glove plays, and we just hope the bat is closer to league average. The real question now is which side he’ll play on. After playing the majority of his time at second base, he shifted to shortstop to close out the regular season and spent the entire playoff run at short. He didn’t look at all out of place, despite not having played a major league inning at shortstop since 2022. Like many Blue Jays, Giménez’s positional flexibility will allow the front office and management to get creative when filling out the roster. Bo Bichette — fWAR: 3.8, wRC+: 134, Fielding Run Value: -10 The big question mark. Technically a free agent, I think most would agree it’s fair to be discussing Bichette here. In a lot of ways, Bichette is the perfect ‘buddy cop/odd couple’ pairing with Giménez. One no bat/all glove and the other a liability in the field, but can flat out hit. Bichette played in 139 games last year (his most since ‘22) and set a career-high mark for doubles (44) and average (.311). That BA was second in the league, behind only Aaron Judge. Bichette’s 181 hits were second only to Bobby Witt Jr. He received some down-ballot votes for AL MVP and hit one of the most memorable home runs of the 2025 playoffs with his World Series Game 7 blast. He is absolutely going to get paid this offseason. The first question is: by who? Bryan Jaeger recently looked at Toronto’s payroll flexibility, and while there is no question that Rogers can afford to bring back Bichette, there will be other suitors. The second question is: where would he play? Injury forced him to second base (and DH) for his World Series return to the lineup, but there is desire from the fanbase to make that move permanent. My preferred middle infield for 2026 has Giménez at short with Bo at second, so the last question might become the most important one: how much of Bichette’s contract negotiations will have to do with where he’s going to play? Ernie Clement — fWAR: 3.2, wRC+: 98, Fielding Run Value: +5 (+10 overall) The ErnDog played more defensive innings than any Blue Jay last season. 593 of those innings were up the middle. If Bichette goes elsewhere, Clement is potentially the first option to fill the spot internally. A trio of great baseball minds agree — to varying degrees (hi, Leo, Jesse and Jim!). Clement’s bat obviously doesn’t come close to Bichette’s, but if that spot is taken care of, then the offense can be backfilled elsewhere on the roster (in theory) with an external addition or the return to form of Anthony Santander. If Bichette returns, Clement can still fill the infield utility role he held in 2025, moving through the positions as teammates need time off or as the lineup is optimized for each opposing pitcher. Davis Schneider — fWAR: 1.3, wRC+: 127, Fielding Run Value: 0 (-2 overall) Schneider had a bounce-back season at the plate, which, in the early weeks, didn’t look to be on the horizon. He broke spring training with the big league club and then proceeded to go 0’fer in his first nine games before getting a hit in his 10th match to raise his average to .067. That long-awaited hit wasn’t enough to stop a mid-April demotion. He came back up in June, and while he didn’t set the world on fire, he played capably at multiple positions and ended the year with improved stats across the board. I don’t think Schneider is anyone’s first choice to fill a middle infield spot (again, in a Bo-less future) with any kind of length, but he’s solid enough that he can be called on in a pinch, and like much of the roster, that flexibility provides additional value. Leo Jiménez — fWAR: -0.3, wRC+: -19, Fielding Run Value: +1 Jiménez appeared in only 44 games across all levels in 2025 (18 in the majors). Limited by hamstring issues and a nasty bout of mono, he did not take the step forward that many in the organization were likely hoping for. He went 2-for-29 (one homer) with the MLB club during his July call-up. He’s another glove-first player, but even at that, he’ll need to hit better than .069 if he hopes to stick in his next shot. It’s worth noting that in 2024, he hit .229 over 63 games and 179 ABs. Over two seasons in the majors, he has played 36 games at second base and 44 at shortstop and could be another flex piece depending on how the roster shakes out (and what his bat does in 2026). The Pipeline There are players in the Blue Jays’ system that may one day see time at the major league level, but at this point in the offseason, it would come as a shock if any of these were impact names in 2026. Where applicable, I will be using FanGraphs’ projected ETA to the majors from their most recent prospect list, and Jays Centre’s top prospect list for each player’s ranking within the organization. JoJo Parker: 2025 first-round pick, #2 prospect, ETA 2030 Arjun Nimmala: 2023 first-round pick, #3 prospect, ETA 2028 Juan Sanchez: 2024 amateur signing, #10 prospect, ETA 2031 Josh Kasevich: 2022 second-round pick, #11 prospect, ETA 2027 Charles McAdoo: 2023 13th-round pick, acquired via trade, #14 prospect, ETA 2027 It is always a balancing act with prospects between the potential future and the win-now window the Blue Jays are certainly in. While it would be interesting to consider a 2029 middle infield of McAdoo and Nimmala, the likelihood of any of the guys on that list switching positions (or organizations) before making their MLB debuts is not outside the realm of possibility. Addison Barger came up through the minors starting out as a middle infielder before settling into the 3B/RF role he occupies now. All of this to say, hold your prospects lightly. View the full article

To the surprise of many, the Boston Red Sox went out and acquired another starting pitcher in Johan Oviedo, deemed to be more of a project than the previously-acquired Sonny Gray. With 12 years of big league experience, Gray has significantly more predictability in the results department. Fans may look at Oviedo’s last full season with puzzlement, seeing a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 177 2/3 IP. I am not here to convince you that a 4.31 ERA is anything to write home about, but what I will say is that his fastball and the movement he can generate raise his ceiling significantly. His fastball is by far his most lively offering. Our own @Nick John spoke of its effectiveness saying, The cause of these fantastic numbers is why the Red Sox have sought out Oveido’s services in 2026, and it's why Craig Breslow believes he can be an impact starter; that fastball has a chance to be special. When checking out Oviedo’s FanGraphs page, you can see a significant jump in his Stuff+ metric and specifically on his fastball. In his last season before Tommy John surgery, Oviedo’s fastball was graded as a well-below-average pitch with a Stuff+ of 82. In 2025, that number jumped an unprecedented 33 points to a Stuff+ grade of 115. Thanks to @TJstats on Twitter, we can get an in-depth look and visual of why Oviedo’s fastball gave hitters problems in 2025. We can see here that Oviedo’s motion creates a unique profile of release height (hRel) and extension (Ext.), and according to Baseball Savant, his 7.4 feet of extension was in the 98th percentile in MLB. With those specific metrics, it creates one of the most unique fastball profiles in baseball. With a low release point, fastballs will typically run more horizontally than his does. Think of former Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale. Sale’s release height is .1 feet higher than Oviedo’s, and yet, Sale’s fastball runs 10 inches more than Oviedo’s (15 v. 5.6). Hitters go in expecting this movement as well, and as a result, this creates an effective fastball. Oviedo raised his release height from 2.5 feet to 3.1 feet and, in turn, increased his swinging strike rate from 7% to 10.2% You can see the release height increase visualized here: One concept breaking into the mainstream is Induced Vertical Break (iVB). What iVB attempts to do is take gravity out of the equation to determine how well a pitch can combat the effects of gravity and stay up. This used to be looked at publicly through spin rate; if a pitcher’s spin was high, then the fastball would have apparent “rise.” This can now be articulated through iVB — the higher it is (on fastballs), the better chance hitters have to swing underneath the pitch. Now, Oviedo’s iVB at face value is a below-average level offering, only 15.4 inches, which is -0.6 inches below the average. For comparison, the leader in iVB is Alex Vesia with 20.9 inches. But because of the combination of release point, arm angle, and iVB, Oviedo was able to increase his fastball K% from 16.1% all the way to 30.9%. His seam manipulation has caused significantly less run to the arm side, and it’s staying up far longer than opposing hitters expect. Below, his 2023 fastball (left, red) compared to his 2025 fastball (right, red). In 2023, Oviedo had a fastball that was well below average in terms of rise, as indicated by the shaded circle on the graph. By 2025, he was right at, if not above, league average with his fastball. Because of this sudden rise and hitters swinging underneath the fastball thanks to the uncanny iVB, his fastball’s fly-ball rate shot up from 25.4% to 58.1%, its zone contact percentage went from 90.2% down to 75.7%, and opposing hitters posted a mere .638 OPS against it. dnZiVldfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkFOVVhBSUdVd29BVzFzQ1hnQUhWdzRBQUFNTlVBVUFDd2RXQVFZSFV3VlhWUUFE.mp4 There’s a reason Craig Breslow said, At this point, Breslow and Andrew Bailey have done enough to prove that they can identify potential, and with Oviedo, there is a clear foundation of potential at the individual pitch level. Of course, one glaring issue is the walk problem. Oviedo had a walk rate of 13.5% and has never had a rate below 8.9% in his whole career. It does not matter how nasty of a pitch ball four is. But beyond that, the prospect of what Johan Oviedo could be is very exciting, and the prospect package was nothing significant for what could be a solid fourth or fifth option in the Red Sox's rotation. This certainly can’t be the final move for the pitching staff this offseason, but it’s great to see the front office take advantage of farm depth to improve the 26-man roster in two consecutive weeks. View the full article

On Sunday, the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voted Jeff Kent into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. An extraordinary offensive second baseman best remembered for his tenure with the San Francisco Giants, Kent was a late-bloomer—each of the top nine seasons of his career in terms of fWAR came between ages 29 and 37. This was his first opportunity to be evaluated by the committee after having fallen off the writers' ballot three years earlier. Prior to the announcement, there had been rumblings from the baseball media that former Miami Marlins manger Don Mattingly was well-positioned to get the nod. Mattingly was the best first baseman in Major League Baseball during his first four full seasons (1985-1988). Unfortunately, back problems shortened his peak and he retired at the relatively young age of 34. In parts of 14 MLB seasons, "Donnie Baseball" slashed .307/.358/.471 with 222 home runs, 14 stolen bases and 40.7 fWAR. The six-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove Award winner spent his entire career with the New York Yankees. Alas, Mattingly ultimately received only half of the votes needed for election. Another former Fish, first baseman Carlos Delgado, actually came closer to garnering the necessary support. The other candidates who had their cases reviewed were Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield and Fernando Valenzuela. In winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4 with his fourth home run of the season. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-4. During a doubleheader, Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 3-for-6 with a walk while Orlando Ortiz-Mayr pitched solidly en route to a no-decision (4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). Berry's .452 on-base percentage would rank second in the Puerto Rican Winter League if he had enough playing time to qualify. Only 108 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 The Winter Meetings are underway and Fish On First has two credentialed reporters there this year: Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral. They'll have thorough coverage today as Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and Marlins manager Clayton McCullough are each scheduled to speak with the media. 🔷 While making his trip north, Kevin stopped at the Marlins' spring training facility to provide updates on the ongoing construction. 🔷 Insiders from The Athletic, ESPN and USA Today each have different interpretations of Sandy Alcantara's availability on the trade market. Personally, I would be shocked if he's moved this offseason. 🔷 Now that the Marlins have reduced their 40-man roster count to 39, here is another plug for last month's list of notable Rule 5 draft possibilities for the Marlins. The draft takes place on Wednesday. 🔷 Last week, Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida launched a sponsorship of the FOF podcast! They offer Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. With Christmas and New Year’s around the corner, boats fill up fast—everyone wants that view of the fireworks from the water. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online. 🔷 Speaking of podcasts, congratulations to Jeremiah Geiger on surpassing 200 episodes as host of Locked On Marlins. View the full article

After his breakout 2025 season, Kody Clemens appears to be the Twins’ presumptive starting first baseman in 2026. While there's good reason to believe he can continue to produce, the team would be better off if he were pushed into a utility role. Clemens had a lackluster career before the Phillies traded him to the Twins for cash in April. He had a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate, without the requisite power to make up for them. To make matters worse, he was 29 years old, so there wasn't much reason to expect a turnaround. Yet, the son of one of the game's greatest pitchers became a bright spot in an ugly season for Minnesota. Why Clemens Can Continue to Rake Clemens improved his walk rate a bit, but the main change that drove his improvement was a 2-mph increase in bat speed, which took him from below-average to average. Swinging harder led to upticks in his Barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and other batted-ball quality metrics. These metrics show that his production was not a fluke, and there's a chance he can replicate it. Notably, his .331 xwOBA was above-average, outpacing his actual results, suggesting some positive regression to come. It's easy to understand why Clemens is a big part of the Twins' vision for 2026. Beyond the offense, he was also an excellent defender at first base—and has been throughout his career, making it even more sensible for him to take over the position. In the best-case scenario for the team, though, he would occupy a smaller role. Red Flags in the Second Half While Clemens had the best year of his career in 2025, there were some negatives in it. For one, while the metrics suggest his performance is sustainable, he dropped off in the second half. It's possible that the chaotic trade deadline impacted him. He was atrocious in August, right after the deadline, indicating that that theory may have some merit. Beyond the raw numbers falling, he also saw his hard-hit rate dip in the second half, which is a real cause for concern. In addition to his poor second half, Clemens is also a player with as steep a dropoff against same-sided pitching as you'll see. Put simply, he cannot hit lefties at all. This limitation will force Derek Shelton to pinch-hit for him early in games, leading to whoever his platoon partner is at first being burned early and having to face a nasty righty later in the game. Given his second-half struggles and inability to hit left-handed pitchers, planning on Clemens at first base should not be the plan. The Right Role for Clemens As you'd imagine, a 29-year-old journeyman whom the Twins got in exchange for cash has limitations. But that doesn't mean he can't be a helpful player as they try to improve on their mess of a 2025. Clemens can hit righties for power, and his batted-ball data indicates that will continue. He can also defend at an average or better level at first, in the corner outfield spots, and at second base. The Twins should put him in a position to succeed by making the necessary roster moves to have him serve as a utility man. That means adding a first baseman, whether through free agency or trade. Doing so will allow Clemens to thrive and take pressure off him to keep hitting in 2026. The new first baseman would slot into the middle of the lineup, and Clemens could move to the bottom third. Beyond that, should Clemens continue to hit, he can slot in at second or left field, should Alan Roden or Luke Keaschall struggle. As we've seen with Willi Castro, a utility man who can hit is very valuable for a team. Their presence maximizes everybody else’s impact. That's the role that Clemens should be in, rather than being one of the league's worst-hitting first basemen. Would you like to see Kody Clemens as a first baseman, utility man, or something else for Minnesota in 2026? View the full article

Although Ebenezer Scrooge-level labor strife looms less than one year from now, MLB's championship-caliber teams (like the Toronto Blue Jays) have lifted the spirits of their fanbase with early signings of Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Ever so briefly, Cubs fans felt the same surge of warmth in their breasts—thanks (or not, as it turned out) to an erroneous report from Bob Nightengale that the Cubs had signed erstwhile Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. It's a moot point, but some instantly felt as though the price for Gallen was a bit too high. Or is it? It's no secret that Jed Hoyer, Carter Hawkins and their staff are seeking a new ace for the top of their rotation, and they have their sights set on hurlers like Michael King, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suárez—in addition, of course, to Gallen. While rumors of what other NL Central squads might do swirl like flakes in a snow globe, Hoyer has a real opportunity to once again position his organization as a perennial World Series threat. Being one of the 29 teams that falls short of baseball's ultimate prize creates the perception that there is less to work with than there really is. The team can and will move away from players like Matthew Boyd, who not only vastly overachieved in 2025, but will be bearing the weight of extra work in his role with Team USA in the forthcoming World Baseball Classic. Waiting in the wings are the likes of Jaxon Wiggins, the towering righty projected to join the squad before the sweltering days of a Wrigley summer arrive. Landing one of those top-flight arms will be important to a team with big dreams for 2026, but their floor is steadily rising each year. Thanks to a media slip-up, we arrived prematurely at one of the North Siders' major offseason destinations. Their approach to this Winter Meetings figures to provide the evidence that diehard fans have been seeking for some time now, that their club seeks to reclaim its view from the top. If you're like me, you've wanted a reason to dive back into the world of Major League Baseball, counting down the days until balls and strikes are once again the currency of our hopes and dreams. In no small way, the Winter Meetings will start showing us just how much there is to hope for. View the full article

Because I’m a proud Zoomer and enjoy doomscrolling, I spend a good amount of time on the “For You” section of my Twitter feed. It’s primarily AI shilling and rabid opinions on sports, but like a bag of jelly beans, every so often, something good shows up in the middle of the gooey multi-colored mess. Recently, it was this tweet by Eno Sarris, a writer for The Athletic: Of course, as a casual fan, this came as something of a surprise. I knew that ERA was far from the only number needed to tell the story of a pitcher's performance, but the idea of disregarding it completely was foreign to me. Describing it as the “batting average of pitching” seemed like a step too far, but this offseason, I’ve noticed more evidence to back up Sarris’s claims. To me, the biggest indicator that ERA has fallen by the wayside as a useful statistic is the way that teams have spent money on pitchers so far this offseason. Here are the five largest pitching free-agent contracts that have been signed so far, and the ERAs for those players last season. Player # of Years Total Contract Value 2025 ERA Dylan Cease 7 $210 million 4.55 Devin Williams 3 $51 million 4.79 Cody Ponce 3 $30 million 1.89 (KBO) Ryan Helsley 2 $28 million 4.50 Emilio Pagan 2 $20 million 2.88 It is admittedly early in the offseason, but there is a clear pattern here. Regardless of where the total values of these contracts end up relative to their peers, many of these are sizable financial commitments. A $30 million AAV for seven years is nothing to sneeze at, and an AAV of $17 million over three years for a reliever with an ERA close to 5.00 is mind-boggling. But things start to come into focus when we look at more advanced stats like FIP, K/BB, and Skill-interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA). Player FIP K/BB SIERA Dylan Cease 3.56 3.03 3.58 Devin Williams 2.68 3.60 2.67 Cody Ponce (KBO) 2.15 6.15 N/A Ryan Helsley 4.14 2.52 3.68 Emilio Pagan 3.72 3.68 3.18 2025 MLB Average 4.16 2.64 4.06 For the most part, this select group of five pitchers looks far more impressive when comparing their advanced metrics to the league average. (Cody Ponce is an obvious exception, but the difficulty of translating his numbers in the Korean Baseball Organization to the American majors only underscores that teams are paying for something other than those surface-level stats.) Dylan Cease and Devin Williams, in particular, become far more appealing when ignoring their lackluster ERAs. It’s also why these two players have drastically different WAR figures based on where you look. Cease has an rWAR of just 1.1, but an fWAR of 3.4, while Williams has an rWAR of -0.3 and an fWAR of 1.4. Those disparities stem from the fact that pitching rWAR is based on runs allowed, while fWAR is based on FIP. Using a collection of advanced metrics paints a far more complete picture of a pitcher’s abilities because, like the slew of hitting metrics we now use instead of batting average to evaluate a hitter, a single number can only tell one part of the story—and in the case of ERA, as with batting average, it's a small and sometimes misleading fragment. Many supporters of ERA claim that its strength is that it tells you what happened, while FIP is a black box of confusing underlying numbers that are more predictive than descriptive. To me, this is more often the result of a misunderstanding of what FIP represents than anything else, because anyone familiar with the formula would notice that it, too, is descriptive. It’s calculated with actual numbers. Tom Tango has a good article discussing ERA's ability to predict itself in the short and medium term, and a significant contributing factor that limits its effectiveness is random variation from sequencing. Giving up a single hit each inning for five innings would result in a far lower ERA than giving up five hits in a single inning, followed by four perfect frames. By solely considering factors under the pitcher’s control, FIP helps remove a lot of noise from defensive miscues, and even the subjectivity of what is considered an earned run. SIERA takes this to the next level, factoring in batted-ball events without the outcome (e.g., hit or out). Instead, this ugly formula simply weighs ground balls, fly balls, and pop-ups to arrive at a number that’s similar to FIP, but with more positive bias toward pitchers who can induce soft contact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty straightforward, but some might be curious as to why the percentages aren’t separated. That’s because they do work together. A pitcher with a 40% strikeout rate seems far less effective if he also had a 15% walk rate. A pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate seems average, but could be elevated to elite with a 5% walk rate. Ultimately, strikeouts and walks seek to measure a pitcher’s ability to command the strike zone. Each individual metric still holds merit, but none carries enough context to serve as a high-level indicator without the other. How does this affect the Brewers? As many of you already know, Milwaukee is one of the more analytically-minded big-league teams, and this shift in perspective has been a part of their strategy for a while now. It’s the reason why certain arms like Nick Mears and Trevor Megill seemed to take massive steps forward after arriving in Milwaukee. Mears had a 5.56 ERA but a 2.61 FIP with the Rockies before he was traded to the Brewers. In his final season with the Twins, Megill had a 4.80 ERA with a 3.29 FIP. Still, this is just one layer of the onion of pitcher evaluation. What makes Milwaukee great is that they also know how to dig into the deeper layers, and can identify whether a pitcher like Quinn Priester or Grant Anderson is on the cusp of greatness even if their advanced metrics still don’t make it obvious. Few teams center their evaluations even on FIP or similar metrics, these days. Instead, they have proprietary ways to measure and weigh pitch quality, biomechanical indicators, and opportunities for improvement via development. If the Brewers look to acquire more pitching depth this offseason (or even if they decide to elevate some of their internal options to bigger roles), keep an eye out for arms that are more appealing under the hood. Milwaukee’s front office has a demonstrated history of finding undervalued assets and maximizing their upside, so if and when they end up making a move, try to look a little deeper than the ERA—and give the old “Advanced” section on FanGraphs a quick peek. View the full article

On Sunday morning, Jaylon Thompson, Royals beat writer for the Kansas City Star, mentioned that the Royals are reportedly interested in reuniting with outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and utility player Adam Frazier. Both players were acquired in trades last season, with Frazier being acquired at the All-Star Break and Yastrzemski at the Trade Deadline. Here's what Thompson said about Yastrzemski and Frazier coming back in his piece, essentially a Royals Winter Meetings Preview on the KC Star. Frazier played with the Royals in 2024 and was a key member of a squad that made it to the ALDS. While he only posted a 65 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR in 294 plate appearances, he seemed to be a leader in the clubhouse and helped mentor many of the young hitters on the Royals roster. He was much better in his return to Kansas City in 2025, as evidenced by a 98 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR in 197 plate appearances. Yastrzemski would be the more impactful acquisition of the pair. As mentioned in Thompson's piece, he hit nine home runs in 50 games, and he also posted a 127 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 186 plate appearances. The former San Francisco Giant can also play all three outfield positions and brings a disciplined approach to the plate. He posted a 1.14 BB/K ratio in his tenure with the Royals last season. Yastrzemski will likely be looking for a multi-year deal, which may be tough for Kansas City to offer, considering Yastrzemski will be 36 years old in August. He is also limited in terms of splits, as he has a career .211 average and a 79 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. In addition to Frazier and Yastrzemski, Thompson mentioned outfielders Austin Hays and Harrison Bader as free-agent options, and Luis Robert Jr. as a trade option the Royals could pursue this week in Orlando during the meetings. It was not reported whether the Royals have spoken with those players or if they are just seen as possible fits given Kansas City's offensive needs for 2026. Photo Credit: © David Richard-Imagn Images View the full article

The Chicago Cubs are looking for a big bat to man the hot corner. After recently being tied to Alex Bregman, it sounds like they're also kicking the tires on another third baseman slugger. Francys Romero is reporting that the Chicago Cubs are interested in free agent third baseman Eugenio Suarez. With the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners, Suarez logged 49 home runs and scored 91 runs. He carried a .824 OPS and a .347 wOBA, resulting in a 125 wRC+. Defensively at third base, Suarez accumulated a -6 mark in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -3 in Outs Above Average (OAA). At 34 years old, MLBTR predicts Suarez to net $68 million over three years. Do you think the Cubs should pursue the aging slugger? Let's know in the comments! View the full article

Derek Falvey is clearly reluctant to lose a player that could even potentially be an asset for nothing. It seems like each season, we can find examples of the front office being slow to cut bait with guys who seem incapable of contributing to wins. In 2023, it was Joey Gallo taking at bats from guys like Matt Wallner. The following season, it was Manuel Margot who got inexplicable at bats despite being objectively terrible the entire season. On the pitching front, they traded for Jorge Lopez in 2023 and he was…not good, but stuck around too long. The following year, Trevor Richards was the lone trade acquisition during the season. There was no reason to believe he would be good, and he wasn’t. The latest iteration of this trend is likely to be their handling of James Outman, who they traded Brock Stewart for in the July selloff, and who is out of options. If one assumes that Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are still on the team in April, and that Austin Martin showed enough down the stretch to earn a roster spot, then it seems that there is one outfield position remaining until Emmanual Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins are ready to claim it. That last spot will likely be a battle between James Outman and Alan Roden . If history says anything about the future, then Outman is likely to prevail despite being the worse candidate, simply on the merits of being out of options and having more experience. Let’s look at the two players. James Outman Outman, frankly, seems in danger of washing out. In 2023, his first full season, he was worth 3.9 fWAR. That season, he did everything, a lot of it pretty well. He was a plus defender, playing a legitimate center field. He stole 16 bags, hit 23 home runs, and walked 12% of the time. He seemed to be the Dodgers' center fielder of the future. That is, unless you looked under the hood and realized his hitting might be a mirage. He did a great job of pulling the ball in the air, and that was the primary driver of his offensive prowess. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the 89th percentile that season. But, his overall hard-hit rate was below average, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile, and he swung through too many pitches, leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are all yellow flags at best, as he didn’t make enough contact for the pulled balls to carry his offensive game. Then, starting in 2024, Outman seemingly forgot how to play baseball entirely. Over the past two seasons, he has put up roughly 50% of the production of an average hitter, has stolen a combined three bases, and hit just 10 homers. He’s been a subpar defender despite spending almost as much time in the corners as in center, and has performed poorly in high-leverage situations. His walk rate is down by a third, as well. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has started chasing more, and has lost a bit of bat speed. His strikeout rate has elevated from a quite high 31.9% in 2023 to an untenable 42.6% in 2025. Making matters even worse, the quality of his contact has dropped markedly. Rather than pulling the ball in the air, he’s been pulling it on the ground, which almost always leads to an out. In short, he’s been a mess. Outman, unlike Roden, does not have age on his side. 2026 will be his age-29 season, and it’s fair to expect some natural decline in the speed and athleticism-related parts of his game. So, if he’s not hitting, not taking walks, not running, and not defending well, then what utility does he offer the Twins? Seriously, I’m asking you, because I can’t find any. Realistically, it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have traded for Outman in the first place. Knowing their surplus of left-handed outfielders, and the pyrrhic nature of his one good season, it didn’t seem like a good fit at the time. Of course, Stewart immediately got injured, so it may be one of those lose-lose trades. However, the trade itself is a sunk cost. Any investment in Outman at this point is not; it will come at the expense of playing time or a roster spot for younger, better, and higher-upside players. Alan Roden Alan Roden, headed into the 2025 season, was ranked the Blue Jays' number five prospect by MLB Pipeline. He had gained significant helium on the strength of a monster 2024 season in which he walked almost as much as he struck out, and had a .314/.406/.510/.916 slash line with Triple-A Buffalo. When the Twins made the unpopular decision to trade Louis Varland for Roden and Kendry Rojas , FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Roden the sixth-best prospect moved at the deadline. He wrote, of Roden, “Recent rookie graduate with plus contact skills, but less power than is ideal for a corner outfielder. Big league-ready platoon bat.” While he didn’t quite impress in his first taste of big league action, he was roughly a replacement-level player, worth -0.1 fWAR. The former third-round pick was limited to just 153 plate appearances before injuring his hand and ending his season. His walk rate was half his career norm, and his strikeout rate was nearly double. However, there’s almost always an adjustment period for prospects as they get used to major league pitching, particularly with the adjustment from an automated strike zone to a manual one. Roden very much has a bright future once he learns to hit Major League pitching, and it’s a fairly safe bet he will, since he has hit at every level of the minors. That may happen sooner rather than later. His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainably low .240 in his small 2025 sample, so positive regression should occur once he learns the zone and is able to make higher-quality contact. At this point, Roden really doesn’t have much to prove at Triple-A. And yet, he seems an odds-on favorite to begin the season there in favor of James Outman. You know why? He can still be optioned, and that probably means he will be. Hopefully, Derek Falvey has learned from the mistakes made in past seasons and will be quicker to move on from a player that doesn’t have much to offer in favor of a younger one who has plenty of projectability. And hopefully, that move happens in spring training, if not sooner. View the full article

This year, the Winter Meetings will take place in Orlando, Florida, from December 7-10. These meetings are renowned for major signings and trades, with all 30 MLB teams sending representatives alongside players, agents, and media. Notably, high-profile trades and signings — such as Juan Soto being traded to the New York Yankees and then signing a $765 million contract with the New York Mets, Miguel Cabrera being traded to the Detroit Tigers, and Shohei Ohtani signing a massive $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers — have highlighted the undeniable significance of this period for player movement. During last year's Winter Meetings, the Red Sox made the massive move in acquiring Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox. Crochet lived up to the hype during the season, posting a 2.59 ERA, an 18-5 record, and a 255:46 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 205 1/3 innings. He's in prime form to carry this starting rotation for at least the next five years throughout the duration of the $170 million contract the lefty signed after landing in Boston last December. The Red Sox's significant needs for the upcoming season are on the pitching staff, which they addressed with short-term band-aids by acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals on November 25 and Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates on December 4. The pitching staff will still be the primary focus during the Winter Meetings, as will the the decision to re-sign Alex Bregman or let him go. While we wait for the news to drop, let's take a look at other notable acquisitions and failures the Red Sox have made during this time period. During the 2016 Winter Meetings, the Red Sox went after another White Sox player, acquiring Chris Sale in exchange for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz. Sale was phenomenal in his first two seasons in Boston, posting 2.90 and 2.11 ERAs, respectively, combining for a 545:77 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a 29-12 record over 372 1/3 innings. Sale would earn his only two All-Star appearances as a Red Sox in those two campaigns seasons. During the 2023 offseason, he'd get traded to the Atlanta Braves, where he won the NL Comeback Player of the Year and Cy Young Award that following season. Not to be topped, in 2000, the Red Sox were the big talk of the Winter Meetings after agreeing to an eight-year $160 million contract with Manny Ramirez. He had a stellar seven-and-a-half years in Boston, hitting 274 home runs before being traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the 2008 trade deadline. The 1987 Winter Meetings led to the Red Sox answering their closer question that offseason by acquiring Lee Smith from the Chicago Cubs for Calvin Schiraldi and Al Nipper. Smith spent two and a half seasons with the Red Sox, successfully converting 58 save opportunities. The Red Sox have also been on the wrong side of Winter Meetings acquisitions. In 2004, Boston tried to re-sign Pedro Martinez; however, they were outbid by the Mets. The Red Sox didn't want to guarantee a fourth season, which led to Martinez's decision not to not re-sign. They were outbid again in 2014 for a former player, but this time it was Jon Lester signing with the Chicago Cubs. History repeated itself in 2022, when the Red Sox sought to re-sign Xander Bogaerts but were outbid by the San Diego Padres. This offseason's Winter Meetings will revolve around the possibility of re-signing Alex Bregman. Fans will hope history doesn't repeat itself and that the team doesn't lose out on bringing back a key player. Other than Bregman, the focus will continue to be on reshaping the pitching staff for the 2026 season. View the full article

It is no secret that the Brewers are not totally happy with the offense of shortstop Joey Ortiz. Although Ortiz appeared in a career-high 149 games last season, he was removed for a pinch-hitter 34 times by manager Pat Murphy. Right now, Andruw Monasterio is the main backup, while Brice Turang and Caleb Durbin can play at short if needed. Would it make sense for the Brewers to spend a little money in the free agent market if the price was right? Of the handful of shortstops testing the waters of free agency, one stands out for Milwaukee with his skill, versatility, and the possibility that the team can make a one-year deal at a reasonable price. Isiah Kiner-Falefa would come to the Brewers fresh off World Series action with the Toronto Blue Jays, bringing Milwaukee some much-needed postseason experience. Kiner-Falefa, who will turn 31 in March, has appeared in 21 postseason games and would give a young Milwaukee club a boost in the clubhouse and on the field. There are two main issues to deal with: · Ortiz is superior to Kiner-Falefa on defense, with Joey O. better by a 12 to -3 rating in Outs Above Average, and a 10 to -4 advantage in Fielding Run Value. · IKF is much better than Ortiz at the plate when facing right-handed pitchers. Player Year(s) OPS v. LH OPS v. RH Ortiz 2025 .734 .537 Career .743 .612 Kiner-Falefa 2025 .536 .668 Career .643 .666 So, what’s the problem? The fact that IKF is better against right-handed pitching means he would get most of the playing time. The breakdown was about 72% right-handed starters and 28% southpaws that pitched against Milwaukee last season. On the surface, Ortiz would only make about 45 starts if he were in the lineup against left-handers only. Since the Brewers are looking to Kiner-Falefa to be more of a ‘semi-platoon’ guy, they would have to make some adjustments to get Ortiz 350-400 ABs for his superiority against lefties and on defense, while finding about half that amount for IKF. Since Ortiz is better defensively, the Brewers would want him in the lineup anytime groundball specialist Quinn Priester is on the mound. ‘The Reverend’ induced grounders at a rate of 55.1% last year, right around his career average. When Priester is on the rubber, Ortiz should be in the starting lineup. The difference against southpaws, at least in 2025, showed Ortiz with a huge advantage over Kiner-Falefa. That should keep Kiner-Falefa on the bench most of the time—if not all—against lefties. The edge IKF had over Ortiz against righties was not as significant, but it was still a pretty large difference. Digging deeper, Ortiz had his best month against righties in August with an .830 OPS, even though he hit no home runs. Add in his .748 OPS in June, and one can see that success against right-handers is attainable. Murphy will just have to find a way to get the ‘hot’ bat into the lineup. Unfortunately, Joey O. fell off a cliff in September with his worst OPS of the year (.482). Ortiz had a double and a triple in September in 70 at-bats along with one free pass. No wonder his OPS cratered. Perhaps the secret to Ortiz’s success would be for IKF to spell him against righties, giving Ortiz a break once or twice a week, depending on who is swinging the bat well. Ortiz could be a late-inning defensive replacement on the days he isn’t in the lineup. Kiner-Falefa can also play second or third and could be a valuable utility man. Where he would fit in would remain to be seen. In fact, IKF has played all three outfield spots and even made 66 starts behind the plate for the Texas Rangers in 2018-19. Maybe the Brewers wouldn’t need that third catcher after all. Is this all a pipe dream? Can the Brewers sign Kiner-Falefa? If he were amenable to a one-year pact in the $7 million range, it would be a decent deal for Milwaukee. What do you think about IKF? Would he be a welcome addition to the Brewers' roster? At what price? How would you break down the starts for each player? Get the conversation started in the comments section below. View the full article

He wouldn't have been the top name on many fans' wish lists, but Zac Gallen has emerged as one of the Cubs' top targets to address their starting rotation this winter. Reports of the team's interest percolated at the end of the week, and on Saturday morning, Bob Nightengale of USA Today erroneously reported that the team had agreed to a multi-year deal with Gallen, with an annual average value north of $22 million. Nightengale beat a hasty retreat, and ESPN's Jeff Passan issued a rare tweet to certify that news was not afoot. Sources confirmed that Gallen is not in agreement with anyone (and certainly that the Cubs were not close to completing a deal) to North Side Baseball, too. However, the team's interest in Gallen—and their engagement with Scott Boras, who represents him—is legitimate. Gallen and Boras are angling for a deal similar to the one Kevin Gausman signed with the Blue Jays or the one Robbie Ray got with the Mariners, each in late November 2021. Gausman got a five-year deal worth $110 million. Ray signed for $115 million over five seasons, with a no-trade clause for the first two years of the pact and the ability to opt out after the third. That's not likely to come to fruition. Boras is aiming high, hoping to establish an anchor that will make some team satisfied to snare Gallen for four years at $88 million or so. In reality, he's likely to come in a bit lower—and so far, the Cubs aren't going that far, by any means. A source familiar with the team's plans said Jed Hoyer and company have so far offered Gallen something much more similar to the three-year, $71-million deal they struck with Marcus Stroman in 2021. Stroman got $25 million in each of the first two years of that deal, and was due $21 million for 2024, but he took advantage of an opt-out clause and hit the market after 2023, instead. Boras, of course, wants to extend that structure by a year. Another source indicated that if the Cubs were to go to four years for Gallen, they would want to reduce the annual average value of the contract to something under $20 million. Escalators (like the clause in Stroman's deal which could have pushed the value of his final season up to $25 million if he'd stayed healthy) might still give Gallen a chance to earn $90 million or more on such a deal. While talks aren't yet advanced far enough that the two sides have discussed such details, an opt-out could give Gallen a chance to hit the market again after 2027. The Cubs could seek a fifth-year club option at a lower salary, should Gallen miss time for Tommy John surgery at any point. In essence, though, the Cubs are seeking to land him on a deal more akin to those of Stroman or Jameson Taillon than to what Gausman or Ray pulled down. Let's talk about why, given the apparent gap between how Gallen hopes to be valued and what the team hopes to pay, the Cubs are so prominently involved. To do so, we can start by observing three key truths about Gallen: He's a workhorse. Though a lat strain cost him almost a month in mid-2024, he's averaged 31.5 starts and over 180 innings per year since 2022. In 2023, between the regular season and Arizona's deep playoff run, he faced 987 batters and pitched 243 2/3 innings—remarkable numbers in the modern game. At his best, he was dominant, but his best feels a bit lost in the fog. He had a 2.54 ERA in 2022 and a 3.47 in 2023. It was 3.12 when he suffered that lat injury in mid-2024, but after he returned, the number was 3.99. In 2025, it ballooned all the way to 4.83. His strikeout rate dipped sharply; he became prone to the home run. As Dylan Cease's seven-year deal last month proved, though, ERA is not the statistic savvy front offices use to evaluate pitchers these days. Gallen's stuff can still be tantalizing. His fastball sits in the 93-95 range. His curveball and changeup can be plus, and he boasts a deep arsenal. On the fundamentals beyond the surface-level numbers, he's a starter with frontline upside. Specifically, one thing seems to have derailed Gallen. It's a very small thing, but a vital one, and the big question around him is whether it can be reversed. If so, he could get right back to dominating in 2026, and stay that way for the length of even a four- or five-year deal. If not, he's probably doomed to a long period of trying to find a new winning formula. It's all about fastball shape. Zac Gallen, Four-Seam Fastballs, 2022-25 Season Velocity Horiz. Ind. Vert. 2022 94.0 3.4 16.8 2023 93.5 3.0 16.5 2024 93.8 4.9 16.1 2025 93.5 4.5 16.3 Based on Gallen's arm slot, in the first two seasons above, he enjoyed about 4.2 inches of relative cut on his fastball. In other words, though it technically faded a few inches toward the arm side between release and the plate, it did so by several fewer inches than a hitter would anticipate. Over the last two seasons, the pitch is running more—but that means it's closer to what the hitter expects. He's down to 2.2 inches of relative cut. Every problem Gallen has experienced the last year and a half springs from that well. The heater doesn't look as much like his curveball as it used to, and it doesn't separate as well from the changeup as it used to. He's not missing as many bats or managing contact as well with the fastball as he could two years ago. The Cubs have a pitching infrastructure that excels, typically, at helping pitchers find and emphasize the cut on their fastballs. They envision helping Gallen reclaim the shapes and relationships that made his pitches so devastating a few years ago. In a market where Michael King is likely to get close to $20 million per year on a three- or four-year deal, Gallen makes some sense at the same price, even if he can't quite get back to his former levels. He's far more durable than King is, with similar upside. The Cubs don't want to pay full freight for that upside, because that would be a big gamble on such a small thing. If you had to bet on a pitcher whose fastball has gone awry, though, you'd much rather face the need to fix their horizontal movement than their velocity or the rising action on that pitch. Mechanical tweaks could turn Gallen around. He's struggled with the timing of his hip and shoulder rotation, and his posture at foot strike has gotten a bit out of whack. Cleaning that up could turn Gallen into an ace again, and the Cubs feel they're uniquely positioned to achieve that. Boras doesn't offer discounts to teams with confidence in their player development, though, and Hoyer won't overpay for a player whose recent track record creates real uncertainty. Thus, as the Winter Meetings get underway, the Cubs are in a familiar position: highly interested in a Boras client, and perhaps even in pole position, but waiting for the terms to match their valuation. 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It's a storyline merely lurking in the weeds with so much offseason buzz floating around, but the Automated Ball-Strike challenge system (ABS) making its way to Major League Baseball next season will be at the forefront of our minds once it actually gets underway. And the pieces published thus far around its implementation lend themselves to some interesting questions related specifically to the San Diego Padres. Over at FanGraphs, Davy Andrews published a piece in which he explored framing in the age of ABS. After navigating some of the numbers and paradoxical thinking around how framing as a skill might coexist with ABS, he noted what was one of more cogent points in the still-young discussion around this development: The thought here is that catchers that are already good at framing are going to have their skills amplified. And considering the IQ that the position requires, the instinctive reaction required to challenge a called ball means it's not a surprise that they feature the higher overturn rates than hitters. Ultimately, teams that employ strong defenders behind the plate are going to feel an added benefit in the introduction of ABS. This, somewhat automatically, lends itself to questions about the Padres' eventual interaction with ABS. As of now, Freddy Fermin stands atop the depth chart for the Padres behind the plate. It's hard to imagine that changes in any meaningful way. Behind him, however, remains something of a question. Luis Campusano is in line for some run as the No. 2 given the absence of anyone else in the organization at present. Considering the prior reluctance to insert him in such a role, though, that side of it could certainly change. Either way, the assertion that good framers can be made better by ABS doesn't necessarily bode well for whatever shape the duo takes for San Diego. Fermin wasn't a particularly effective framer during his post-deadline time with the Padres. He finished with -2 Framing Runs and was largely ineffective in the shadows to which Andrews referred in the above excerpt. He graded out as exactly average in the top shadow (0 Framing Runs) and was at 2 Framing Runs to his left, but went -1 on the right and -2 on the bottom of the zone. Bear in mind the fact that that Baseball Savant's shadow doesn't exclusively consider inside of the zone, so we shouldn't expect Fermin to linger around that 90-percent mark. But his checking in as exactly average or below in the majority of the areas isn't a terrific development if we're to believe in the amplification of skill wrought by ABS. If there's a positive, it's that Fermin was a markedly better catcher in the bottom shadow (16 Framing Runs) and still above average to his left during his years with the Kansas City Royals. So, if he can find a marriage of his strengths between Kansas City and San Diego, the possibility exists that he can use ABS to his advantage. The more concerning part of this is Campusano. If ABS enhances the quality of good framers, then we're left with the belief that poor framers could become more exposed. He checked in at -9 Framing Runs between 2023 and 2024, including -4 in the top shadow and -8 to the left. There's a reason the Padres have been reluctant to insert him behind the plate. And if we're to believe this is a trend that could manifest next season, then it may certainly be worth exploring a transition to platoon first base and bench work, rather than as a regular catcher. Either way, as exciting as the prospect of ABS has the potential to be, it's not painting a terrific picture for the Padres at the present moment. In separate work cited by Andrews' article at FanGraphs, Tom Tango examined challenge probability by utilizing data available from the 2025 minor league season (where ABS was implemented for the full year). His model provided something of a baseline for what level of aggression we could see from hitters and catchers alike, with the following standing out: The psychological side of this is also going to be fascinating. Catchers that are quality framers carry that IQ with them. It would also be easy to assume that because quality framing is fairly black-and-white (courtesy of analytics), those that are good framers know they are good framers. Could those who struggle on the framing side be more reluctant to challenge with knowledge of their own shortcoming? It's impossible to project that, but the situational and skill-set side is going to be a tremendous aspect about which to speculate as far as underneath-the-surface factors go. We're still a long way off from this meaning too much for the Padres. They have an offseason to work with each backstop and could add another catcher that helps their case here. But the early indicators aren't off to a terrific start. For a shallow pitching staff that is going to need as much help as possible, this is suddenly an area that the Padres may need to address in short order. View the full article

After finishing the season 70-92, the Twins landed the second-best odds in the MLB Draft Lottery to earn the first overall pick. With the small sample size of three previous draft lotteries, how often does the team with the second-best odds land the first or second overall pick, and what could be the worst spot they can land in the 2026 MLB Draft? View the full article

We have reached that stage of the MLB offseason where you can believe whichever version of reality you want. There have been a handful of major moves, but the dam hasn't fully burst yet. In the meantime, league sources are attempting to manipulate insiders to steer negotiations toward whichever outcome will ultimately benefit their team/client. At the end of the 2025 season, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix was non-committal about whether the organization would be retaining veteran rotation leader Sandy Alcantara. That has opened the door for rampant speculation. According to reporting from Jeff Passan of ESPN, "teams aren't clamoring to give Miami the return it would need to give him up." He added in a separate article later in the week that "Miami is almost certain to move a starting pitcher this winter, and Edward Cabrera has generated the most interest." Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic did not distinguish between the availability of the Dominican right-handers: "There’s a strong possibility that the Marlins end up moving one of their starters, league sources said. Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera have continued to attract serious attention from other teams." Most recently, we have this from Bob Nightengale of USA Today as of early Sunday morning: "The Marlins have told teams that ace Sandy Alcantara is staying, but starter Edward Cabrera is available." The general consensus is that Cabrera—who's two and a half years younger than Alcantara, coming off a much more consistent season and considerably cheaper—would bring back more talent in return if traded this winter. View the full article

This year, the Winter Meetings will take place in Orlando, Florida, from December 7-10. These meetings are renowned for major signings and trades, with all 30 MLB teams sending representatives to mingle and negotiate with players, agents, and media. High-profile trades—such as Garrett Crochet to the Boston Red Sox, Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, Chris Sale to the Red Sox, and Miguel Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers—dominate the headlines. It's as intense a four-day span as there will be all offseason. The Cubs themselves capitalized on this setting last offseason, acquiring Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros and agreeing to sign free-agent catcher Carson Kelly during the Meetings. Their impact was evident, but with Tucker now a free agent, the front office shifts its focus to acquiring a depth bat, a front-end starter, and bullpen help. As speculation builds about what moves the Cubs might make this offseason, let's revisit the most impactful Winter Meetings acquisitions in the franchise's history. Jon Lester's signing stands out as perhaps the most impactful. At a time when the franchise sought to move out of a rebuilding phase, Lester's arrival—via a six-year, $155 million contract after the 2014 season—signaled the Cubs' intent to contend. During Lester's tenure, the Cubs made five postseason trips and won the 2016 World Series. During that season, he had a 19-5 record, 2.44 ERA, and a 197:52 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The lefty would finish the season as the runner-up to the Washington Nationals' Max Scherzer in the National League Cy Young voting. He threw more than 140 innings in every season except one (the 2020 Covid-shortened season). After his contract expired, the Cubs declined his $25 million mutual option for the 2021 season, making Lester a free agent. He would sign with the Nationals, get traded to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline, and then hang his cleats up after the 2021 season. During the 2015 Winter Meetings, the Cubs bolstered their offense by adding Ben Zobrist, fresh off his World Series win with the Kansas City Royals. The utility player signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Cubs. To make room for Zobrist, the Cubs made a separate trade, sending Starlin Castro to the New York Yankees. During that season, Zobrist hit .272/.386/.446 with 18 home runs, 94 runs, and 76 RBIs over 632 plate appearances, earning his only All-Star appearance as a Cub. In the 2016 World Series, Zobrist went 10-for-28 with five runs and two RBIs, and it was his go-ahead hit at the top of the 10th inning of Game 7 that put the Cubs up 8-7. They'd hold on in the bottom half, breaking their 108-year title drought, with Zobrist earning the MVP honors. His four seasons with the Cubs marked the end of his career. A notable Winter Meetings trade came in 1980, when the Cubs traded their four-time All-Star closer, Bruce Sutter, to the St. Louis Cardinals. Sutter was perfect, saving 133 games during the 1976-1980 seasons as a member of the Cubs, without blowing a save opportunity. In 1979, he earned the NL Cy Young Award, posting a 2.22 ERA, 110:32 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and converted all 37 save opportunities over 101.1 innings. A contract dispute led to the trade, but in return for Sutter, the Cubs received Leon Durham, Ken Reitz, and Ty Waller from the St. Louis Cardinals. This trade benefited both teams, as Sutter continued his dominant pitching in three of his first four years in St. Louis. For the Cubs, Durham played eight seasons, hitting 138 home runs and earning two All-Star appearances. Reitz and Waller weren't major contributors in their short-lived careers in Chicago. This offseason's Winter Meetings may be busy for the Cubs. Shota Imanaga surprisingly accepted his one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer over becoming a free agent. Still, the Cubs could use another front-line starting pitcher, with Justin Steele likely to miss at least the first half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery early into last season. The bullpen needs an overhaul, and the offense could use a depth bat, especially if Matt Shaw continues to struggle at the plate or if Owen Caissie isn't ready for the big leagues. View the full article

The Blue Jays certainly mean business this offseason. In a surprising move, the team has announced that RHP Yariel Rodriguez has been outrighted from their 40-man roster. Toronto now sits with 38 players on the roster, with the Cody Ponce signing still pending. Rodriguez, a Cuban native, signed a five-year, $32 million contract in February of 2024 after three strong seasons pitching in Japan from 2020 to 2022. The Blue Jays originally tried him as a starting pitcher in his first professional season. He made four starts in April before being placed on the injured list due to spinal inflammation. When he came back at the end of June, he had a 4.17 ERA, a FIP that matched, and looked like a potential starting rotation building block for years to come. In 2025, Toronto shifted him back into the bullpen, a role in which he excelled while in Japan, and it looked like he had really found a home. On the whole, he had a 3.08 ERA, a team-high 73 innings pitched out of the bullpen, and in terms of Win Probability Added, his 2.29 WPA led all Blue Jays relievers. Because of that performance, the outright off-the-roster move caught many people off guard; the Jays aren't pressed for 40-man roster space, and from the outside looking in, it doesn’t seem like anything forced their hand, so the timing seems odd. It's possible that the Blue Jays simply chose to get ahead on some business, much like when they non-tendered Alek Manoah earlier this season to get some roster clarity, and maybe the team is doing the same with Rodriguez here. Still, the question remains: Why move on from Yariel in the first place? While his season-long numbers look solid, there were some stark differences between the first and second halves that cause some concern. Yariel Rodriguez first half vs second half: - ERA: 2.47 vs 4.21 - WHIP: 0.93 vs 1.51 - K%: 25.6% vs 16.9% - BB%: 8.9% vs 15.3% More baserunners, more runs, fewer strikeouts, and more walks, none of those pointed in the right direction. His average fastball velocity, as high as 96.8 mph in June, dropped to 94.8 mph by season's end, which was just another cause for concern. By October, he wasn’t even on the World Series roster, despite being one of the better relievers for chunks of the summer. Ultimately, the Blue Jays saw enough warning signs to take a gamble, expose him to waivers, and risk losing him for nothing but $7 million in salary relief. All other 29 teams also passed. Rodriguez remains in the Blue Jays organization, as he doesn’t have enough service time to decline the outright assignment in favour of free agency. As things stand, he will train this winter and try to earn his spot back on the 40-man roster, or potentially become a trade candidate if the Blue Jays are willing to retain some of the $17 million remaining on the contract. For the Blue Jays, this move creates options. They didn't need the roster spot today, but the Blue Jays are clearly going to add more to their roster. With the additions of Ponce and Dylan Cease to the starting rotation, it has pushed some of the other potential starting options (Eric Lauer, maybe Jose Berrios) into potential bullpen roles to begin the season. As of now, the Blue Jays bullpen looks like: RHP - Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, Tommy Nance, Jose Berrios LHP - Brendon Little, Eric Lauer This list doesn’t include names like Mason Fluharty, Justin Bruihl, and Paxton Schultz, all of which helped the Blue Jays at various points in 2025. One silver lining of Rodriguez’s situation is the potential opportunity to be a starting pitcher again. Behind Berrios and Lauer, the Jays' starting pitching depth includes: Ricky Tiedemann, Bowden Francis, Lazaro Estrada, and Adam Macko, with Gage Stanifer not far behind. Rodriguez has the chance to spend most of the season in Buffalo, and if things go well for him, he can force his way back onto the roster. How his story unfolds remains to be seen. Maybe he returns to the bullpen and regains his early-season form, maybe he converts to a starter and something clicks for him, maybe his best success will come outside of the Blue Jays organization. Situations like this can still pay off. Myles Straw was in a similar situation in Cleveland before the Blue Jays made a trade, and Straw was a key part of the Jays' success in 2025. Whether or not that happens in Toronto, I doubt we’ve seen the last of Yariel Rodriguez. As for the team, this move adds another layer of intrigue. They’ve already made two impact signings to the rotation, and with the winter meetings arriving, clearing a spot on the 40-man roster may be a sign that something else may be coming. One thing is for sure: the Blue Jays certainly aren’t afraid to make some challenging decisions, as they look to find the pieces to push the team to baseball glory. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals need help in the outfield in 2026. Thankfully, Royals GM JJ Picollo has made that a priority, and it wouldn't be surprising if Kansas City made some noise at the Winter Meetings next week to pursue that much-needed addition in the outfield. Many big names have been listed as options for the Royals, which is an encouraging sign. It shows that owner John Sherman isn't averse to increasing payroll to make a deal, and that the Royals aren't afraid to make a trade that could carry some risk (such as trading away ace Cole Ragans). To compete with teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Blue Jays, small-market clubs like Kansas City need to make those kinds of moves to make a splash, especially in the postseason. That said, this is a different Royals team from the Dayton Moore era. The Royals are more data-inclined than ever before. That is evident in their manager, Matt Quatraro, who came over from the Rays, and in their coaching staff, which hired highly analytical coaches this offseason, such as Connor Dawson from Milwaukee and Mike McFerran from the Athletics. Both are known for their data-focused coaching approach with their respective clubs. Thus, to be a long-term winner like Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay, Kansas City needs to find the right fits that can help Quatraro utilize the entire 26-man roster over a full season. That usually means finding the right platoon options who can give key guys rest while still keeping the club competitive day to day. Utilizing the entire roster has been a priority not just for Quatraro but also for Picollo when assembling the roster each offseason. That philosophy is a key reason why Rob Refsnyder would be the perfect fit for the 2026 Royals. Refsnyder Hit the Ball Hard and Didn't Chase Last Year Last season with the Red Sox, he didn't get a ton of at-bats, but he made them count in a significant way. In 70 games and 209 plate appearances, Refsnyder slashed .269/.354/.484 with an .838 OPS. He also hit eight home runs, scored 29 runs, collected 30 RBI, and stole three bases. When looking at his advanced metrics via Fangraphs, his ISO was .214, his wRC+ was 128, and his fWAR was 1.0. All those numbers are impressive for a player with only 70 games. An intriguing aspect about Refnsynder's profile is that he hits the ball hard. His exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rate percentiles all ranked in the upper part of the league, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary profile. Refnsyder's average EV ranked in the 88th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 80th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 94th percentile. What also makes Refsnyder intriguing is his strong plate discipline, as he avoids chasing many pitches out of the strike zone. His O-Swing percentage ranked in the 95th percentile, and his walk rate ranked in the 81st percentile last season. According to Fangraphs, Royals outfielders ranked 15th in O-Swing% (28.6%) and 25th in walk rate (7.2%). Thus, Refsnyder would provide a significant boost to the Royals' lineup in those categories at the plate in 2026. Refsnyder is a Platoon Monster Kansas City struggled to get much from right-handed-hitting outfielders in 2025. They ranked 28th in wRC+ (59) and fWAR (-1.6), according to Fangraphs. Individually, the group of right-handed-hitting outfielders who played last year isn't an impressive list, as seen in the table below. They need more help in this area next season, as not a single right-handed-hitting Royals outfielder posted a wRC+ in the triple digits. Thankfully, Refsnyder is the ideal solution to that problem, especially with his history against left-handed pitching. Last season, against lefties, the 34-year-old former Arizona Wildcat slashed .302/.399/.560 with a .959 OPS against lefties. He also posted a 0.59 BB/K ratio, a .259 ISO, and 159 wRC+, according to Fangraphs metrics. Over his career, he has a slash line of .281/.383/.443 with an .826 OPS, a 0.64 BB/K ratio, a .162 ISO, and a 129 wRC+. Refsnyder has a proven track record against left-handed starting pitching, sustained over 375 games and 764 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the history against right-handed starting pitching is porous. In 349 games and 759 plate appearances against righties, he has a slash of .229/.301/.332 with a .633 OPS, 0.32 BB/K ratio, .103 ISO, and 76 wRC+. Hence, if the Royals acquire Refsnyder, he would specifically have a role as a platoon specialist against lefties and little else. While that sounds limiting, that kind of weapon can be beneficial, especially over the course of a 162-game season. Refsnyder Could Be a Nice Complement to Caglianone in Right Field It is easy to be pessimistic about Jac Caglianone and his outlook after a rough rookie campaign. In 62 games and 232 plate appearances, he slashed .157/.237/.295 with a .532 OPS and 46 wRC+. He also hit seven home runs, scored 19 runs, collected 18 RBI, and accumulated an fWAR of -1.6. However, while the overall numbers weren't impressive, his batted-ball ability, especially in his exit velocity and barrel metrics, was much more encouraging, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary profile. Caglianone ranked in the 96th percentile in 90th EV, 81st percentile in Max EV, and 67th percentile in barrel rate. He also ranked in the 78th percentile in pull rate, indicating he can get around the ball on time. Unfortunately, a lackluster LA Sweet-Spot percentage (2nd percentile) led to a less-than-stellar Pull Air% (25th percentile). When things clicked, however, Caglianone could produce bombs like this one in September of last season in Philadelphia against Phillies ace Aaron Nola. Steamer projections have just released their 2026 version, and they are optimistic about Caglianone's outlook for the upcoming season. They project Cagalianone to sport the third-best wRC+ of Royals hitters next season with a 109 mark. Steamer also projects Caglianone to hit 18 home runs, collect 56 RBI, and post a .195 ISO in 419 plate appearances. Hence, Caglianone could take the next step as a hitter and overall star in 2026. Acquiring someone like Refsnyder to give him an occasional break against lefties could be the solution they need. They hold onto Caglianone's long-term value, while acquiring a bat in Refsnyder who could boost their lineup in specific situations next season. That is the kind of decision that good small-market teams make. It is also a solution that could help the Royals return to the postseason in an AL Central division that remains wide open, especially with Cleveland and Detroit having hazy offseasons thus far. View the full article

The winter meetings arrive every year with a blend of tension and possibility, and the Minnesota Twins find themselves right in the center of that mix. The front office has already signaled a shift in direction with notable trades at last year’s deadline, but the next few days will determine how dramatic this winter truly becomes. With payroll limitations, a clubhouse in transition, and a roster that needs both clarity and talent, these four questions will shape the Twins’ path forward. Will the Twins Trade More Veterans? Minnesota shocked much of the league when it moved key players at the 2025 deadline, and the possibility remains that the front office is not done trimming from the core. Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Byron Buxton represent the most significant names still drawing outside interest, and each presents a different challenge for the club. Ryan still has two years of team control through arbitration, making him the type of pitcher contenders ask about when they believe the Twins are retooling. There were already rumors about him being traded at the deadline, and he’s coming off an All-Star campaign. Lopez remains Minnesota’s best starting pitcher when healthy, and moving him would signal a complete reset instead of a soft pivot. He is owed the most money over the next two seasons ($43 million), making him a prime trade target. Then there is Buxton, the most complicated name of all. His contract, health history, and elite ceiling create a puzzle that only a few teams might be willing to solve, yet rumors have pointed to him being willing to waive his no-trade clause if the sell-off continues. The winter meetings have a way of accelerating conversations, and if another club is willing to pay for star upside, the Twins could continue reshaping their roster. Will the Team’s New Minority Owners Be Revealed? One of the strangest Twins storylines in recent months has nothing to do with baseball decisions. The club is expected to add two new minority ownership groups, but the details have been surprisingly quiet. The lack of transparency might be expected, but it remains strange that only limited details are available. Winter meetings are traditionally a stage for ownership announcements, branding pushes, and organizational updates. If the Twins intend to introduce their new partners before the 2026 season begins, this week is the ideal moment. The uncertainty has prompted speculation that the agreements are not fully finalized. Either way, clarity would be welcomed by fans eager to understand how these groups will influence future spending and long-term strategy. Will the Twins Sign a Closer? The bullpen is one of the clearest needs on the roster, especially after last summer’s sell-off. Minnesota is not expected to hand out any major long-term deals in free agency, but the club needs stability at the back end of games. The free agent market offers a few realistic options. Kenley Jansen stands out as a name with both experience and history chasing. Sitting 24 saves shy of becoming only the third pitcher in MLB history to reach five hundred career saves, he could find the Twins an appealing landing spot if they provide him with ninth-inning duties. Minnesota could also turn back to familiar faces. Taylor Rogers offers a left-handed veteran presence with strikeout stuff when healthy, while Caleb Thielbar would be a sentimental fit who could thrive in a lower leverage role. A bullpen addition of some kind feels close to inevitable, and the winter meetings could be where that move materializes. Will the Twins Attempt to Upgrade at First Base and DH? Derek Falvey made headlines at the GM Meetings when he suggested that Kody Clemens is in line to be the club’s starting first baseman. That may be the current plan, but it is hard to imagine the Twins entering the season with no improvements to two of the most crucial run-producing spots in the lineup. The organization needs more right-handed power, and the market offers several affordable options. Paul Goldschmidt is no longer the MVP-caliber hitter he once was, but has remained productive and dependable. Josh Bell brings switch-hitting pop that could balance the lineup. Rhys Hoskins would be a particularly strong fit if the Twins prioritize home run potential without breaking the bank. Any of these names would present an upgrade over the current depth chart and help alleviate pressure on Clemens to carry a position with a heavy offensive load. The winter meetings continually shape the offseason, but this year feels especially pivotal for the Twins. Whether they choose to move veterans, reveal ownership updates, fortify the bullpen, or add meaningful offensive help, Minnesota is positioned for a week filled with decisions that will define the next stage of their retooling. One way or another, the franchise will look different by the time the meetings conclude. Will the Twins answer any of these questions at the winter meetings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Miami Marlins front office operates very deliberately. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but in two-plus years under the direction of Peter Bendix, the pattern is undeniable. They wait and wait and wait to extract what they deem to be appropriate value—this was exemplified most clearly at the 2024 MLB trade deadline, when the Marlins made six separate trades on deadline day itself. Covering a deliberate front office during the offseason is, frankly, not fun. So I'm going to make it fun by inviting you to an alternate universe in which the Marlins' approach is flipped upside down. What if all of Miami's significant 2025-26 offseason moves were already completed? This exercise does not require too much imagination because the activity of other MLB teams lets us know approximately what it would've cost the Marlins in terms of money and talent to upgrade their roster. Let's say that the Marlins did the following: Signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal Signed Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal Traded Ryan Weathers, William Kempner and Chris Arroyo to the Boston Red Sox for Jhostynxon García and Jesús Travieso Traded Joe Mack to the Washington Nationals for Jose A. Ferrer and Hunter Hines Signed Will Banfield to a minor league deal Each of these hypothetical moves is based on an official transaction that we have seen around the league over the past month. Naylor, Helsley and Banfield received identical contracts from the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds, respectively. The Weathers/Kempner/Arroyo package is meant to mimic the package of Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego and Adonys Guzman that the Pittsburgh Pirates sent to Boston for García and Travieso. Mack is taking the place of Harry Ford. In addition to Ford, the Mariners gave up their 2025 10th-round draft pick, right-hander Isaac Lyon, in the Ferrer trade. Seattle lacked leverage in negotiations because of the universal understanding that Ford was being "blocked" by the top catcher on the planet, Cal Raleigh, for the foreseeable future. Without that variable influencing the Marlins, I strongly believe Mack's current value is slightly higher than Ford's and it would be the Nationals including their 10th-rounder to balance the scales. Would you have been satisfied if this was what the Marlins had actually done? All-Star-caliber first baseman in the prime of his career, two high-leverage relievers (one of whom is not even arbitration-eligible yet) and a powerful rookie outfielder. In exchange, however, they'd be parting with a controllable starting pitcher who has mid-rotation upside and a major league-ready catcher with brilliant defensive ability. Here is an Opening Day roster projection to demonstrate how the pieces might've fit together: Projected starting lineup—C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Josh Naylor, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Jhostynxon García, DH Heriberto Hernández Projected bench—Liam Hicks, Connor Norby, Griffin Conine, Javier Sanoja Projected starting rotation—RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, RHP Janson Junk, LHP Braxton Garrett Projected bullpen—RHP Ryan Helsley, RHP Ronny Henriquez, LHP Jose A. Ferrer, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Tyler Phillips, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Calvin Faucher, LHP Andrew Nardi I think these Marlins would probably surpass the club's 79-83 record from last season, but their odds of earning a postseason berth would be a coin flip at best. A few months from now once the dust settles, I'll be circling back to this as well as my original offseason blueprint and compare them to Bendix's real-life maneuvers. View the full article

The Winter Meetings will be held in Orlando, Florida, from December 7-10 this offseason. This time period is often when major signings and trades occur, as all 30 MLB teams send representatives, including owners, executives, and managers. Players, their agents, and media also attend. In the past, we've seen athletes at the top of their game change teams, including Garrett Crochet, traded to the Boston Red Sox; Juan Soto, traded to the New York Yankees; Chris Sale, traded to the Red Sox; and Miguel Cabrera, traded to the Detroit Tigers. The Toronto Blue Jays will likely be a popular name at the meetings, and this could be the time to re-sign Bo Bichette or pursue Kyle Tucker. This will likely be a "one or the other" situation, as adding both would take regular at-bats away from Addison Barger or Ernie Clement, who both proved to be valuable assets down the stretch and in the postseason. A trade could happen as well, given their surplus of outfielders. So, these four days are when we, as fans, can sit back and react with shock and awe as top-tier talent moves teams, changing the landscape of MLB. Last year during the Winter Meetings, the Blue Jays acquired Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin via trade from the Cleveland Guardians. While we prepare for this year's Winter Meetings, let's take a look at some of the more notable Winter Meetings acquisitions the Blue Jays have made in the past. The most impactful trade the Blue Jays made during this period was acquiring Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter from the San Diego Padres in 1990, sending Fred McGriff and Tony Fernadez to the Padres. Both Alomar and Joe Carter were key cogs in the Blue Jays winning their only two World Series championships in 1992 and 1993. Carter's iconic walk-off home run in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series to clinch the victory was arguably the greatest moment in franchise history. The quote, "Touch 'em all, Joe, you'll never hit a bigger home run in your life," from longtime radio announcer Tom Cheek, will forever live in Blue Jays fans' memories. In 1996, the Blue Jays made history by signing Roger Clemens to a four-year, $31 million contract, which at the time was the largest contract (money-wise) ever given to a pitcher, and the largest contract in club history. He spent only two of those seasons in Toronto, but he was dominant. He'd have a combined 41-13 record, 2.33 ERA, and a 563:178 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 498 2/3 innings. Clemens won the AL Cy Young Award in both his seasons with the Blue Jays, too. After the 1978 season, the Blue Jays traded Clemens to the Yankees for Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd, and David Wells. In 1992, the team bolstered its offense after its first World Series run by adding 36-year-old Paul Molitor on a three-year, $13 million contract. At the time of the signing, Molitor was a five-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger winner, all while with the Milwaukee Brewers. That first season in Toronto, he hit .332/.402/.509 with 22 home runs and 111 RBIs. In the World Series that year, he went 12-24 at the plate with two home runs. He also scored 10 runs and had eight RBIs, leading him to claim the MVP honors. The righty was an All-Star with the Blue Jays in the 1993 and 1994 seasons and claimed another Silver Slugger Award in 1993. He is still one of the most impactful Winter Meetings signings in Blue Jays history. The Blue Jays have had their fair share of failed attempts to acquire top-tier talent during the Winter Meetings, as well. They have several times found themselves among a player's final two or three options, only to be outbid in the end. In 2016, outfielder Dexter Fowler was the Blue Jays' primary target, but the St. Louis Cardinals outbid them. In 2022, the Blue Jays were outbid for arguably their three top targets: Brandon Nimmo (New York Mets), Justin Verlander (Mets), and Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies). More recently, the Blue Jays were in the running up to the end to dole out a pair of record-breaking contracts. They were in the mix for Shohei Ohtani during the 2023 Winter Meetings. He visited the team's spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida, but five days later, he signed a then-record $700-million, 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. History repeated itself last year, when the Blue Jays were among the final bidders for Soto, but he signed a historic 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. Let's hope the phrase "the third time's a charm" plays out this Winter Meetings, as DiamondCentric's top free agent, Kyle Tucker, recently visited the Blue Jays' spring facility. There aren't many needs left for the Blue Jays this offseason, which may lead to a somewhat quiet Winter Meetings for the team. Most recently, the Jays addressed their need for more pitching depth by signing Cody Ponce. However, we the fans will still hope to hear news of Bichette returning to Toronto or another top-tier bat making his way north. View the full article

In the span of one calendar year, the Red Sox's plans for middle infield have changed drastically. As Kristian Campbell showed defensively, he was not the second baseman of the future, and Trevor Story opting into his contract has moved Marcelo Mayer off shortstop for the time being, the Red Sox still have an interesting mix of depth. 2025 saw a consistent presence at shortstop in Trevor Story, while second base saw several players gain playing time there, especially after Campbell was demoted to Worcester in June. Now the question remains: who will play second base on opening day, and whether the Red Sox have the depth to handle a loss of either their starting shortstop or second baseman. Fortunately for them, they would be able to handle the loss of a player on the defensive side thanks to the various players throughout the organization. 2026 Starters SS Starter: Trevor Story 157 games, .263/.308/.433 .741 OPS, 29 2Bs, 25 HRs, 96 RBIs Story saw himself bounce back from three straight injury-shortened seasons, and his first since 2021, in which he played 100 or more games. And despite an absolutely terrible May that had some calling for him to be benched or even possibly designated for assignment, Story was arguably the best offensive player for Boston. Story doesn’t walk much and will strike out quite often (176 strikeouts in 2025), but his ability to put the ball in play when it matters makes up for it. Along with his bat, Story is a veteran presence and leader in the clubhouse for an otherwise young team. Defensively, Story took a step back, whether due to age or from missing nearly two full years, is yet to be seen, but he posted a -9 Outs Above Average along with a -8 Fielding Run Value. His 19 errors were also a career high, but he still found a way to come up with a big play when necessary. 2B Starter: Romy González 96 games played, .305/.343/.483 .826 OPS, 23 2Bs, 3 3Bs, 9 HRs, 53 RBIs Now, for those following this depth series, you would know that González was penciled in as the most likely to be the first-base starter; well, the same holds for second base. At this point in the offseason, González could likely be the starter at either position, especially since neither David Hamilton nor Nick Sogard seems like a good option to start. González needs to be in the lineup each time a left-hander starts for the opposing team due to his .331/.378/.600 stat line against them. Should the Red Sox bring in a true first baseman, González will be able to properly serve his role as a super utility player for manager Alex Cora and get at-bats from various positions. Defensively, his versatility is an excellent weapon for Cora, though he may be best on the right side of the diamond. 2026 Backups Nick Sogard 30 games, .260/.317/.344 .661 OPS 8 2Bs, 9 RBIs Sogard is an interesting case: he would easily make plenty of teams’ 26-man rosters with his skill set of playing all over the field and making quality contact while handling fastballs. Unfortunately for Sogard, because of his two options, he’ll likely be shuttled between Worcester and Boston, just as he has been for the past two seasons. While Sogard can be solid defensively at multiple positions and has an average hit tool, his power could hold him back, as his exit velocities are below average, and he has only 12 career extra-base hits in 173 plate appearances. Despite that, he had earned the trust of Cora and was starting at second base during the playoffs, proving to be a sparkplug as he came around to score as the go-ahead run in game one against the Yankees. David Hamilton 91 games, .198/.257/.333 .590 OPS, 4 2Bs, 1 3B, 6 HRs, 19 RBIs Hamilton had a down season in 2025, seeing a drop in playing time and significant declines in his statistics. The middle infielder also saw himself optioned to Worcester during the season as well. Offensively, he tries to hit line drives and has solid pitch recognition and an understanding of the strike zone, but will expand the zone. His power is considered below average, and if he wants to be a consistent figure on the major league roster, he needs to hit more doubles as he did in 2024. However, his speed alone is enough to keep him around as an end-of-the-bench option for late-game pinch-running, as his speed puts pressure on opposing defenses. Defensively, he is much better at second base than shortstop, as he’s shown solid range there compared to the latter. Marcelo Mayer 44 games, .228/.272/.402 .674 OPS, 8 2Bs, 1 3B, 4 HRs, 10 RBIs Much like with González, Mayer is listed as the current third-base starter in this series due to Alex Bregman’s free agency and the team's lack of another player to plug in there right now. Of course, much like González, he could also be plugged in as the starter at second base instead, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out. In his short time with Boston, Mayer proved he was ready defensively, mostly playing third base, where he handled the position with ease after playing it just five times between Portland and Worcester. He also appeared at second base and was able to handle that position as well. In a limited time (57 innings), Mayer did not commit an error and had a +1 Outs Above Average. Offensively, it was a different story as he flashed some power and showed he could currently be league average against right-handers, but against left-handed pitching, he struggled to a .154/.185/.231 stat line. Mayer is still young and has time to learn; his promotion to Boston last year was rushed due to Bregman’s injury, and he should fare better against major league pitching in 2026. Extreme Emergency: Ceddanne Rafaela 156 games, .249/.295/.414 .708 OPS 34 2Bs, 4 3Bs, 16 HRs, 63 RBIs First off, Rafaela should only be playing the infield in the event of an emergency. It’s not that he isn’t good at second base or shortstop, but rather he’s just that much better defensively in center field. Rafaela, however, has been forced to play key games in the infield the last two seasons due to injuries, as he appeared in 92 games between shortstop and second base in 2024 and, fortunately, only 24 games at second base in 2025. Offensively, Rafaela is as streaky as they come. His lack of plate discipline (which has improved) leads to a lot of chasing pitches and causes him to strike out by expanding the zone. But when he’s on, Rafaela could be one of the most clutch players on the Red Sox, as displayed by his multiple walk-offs in 2025. Minor Leagues Vinny Capra 47 games (White Sox/Brewers), .125/.157/.177 .334 OPS, 2 2Bs, 1 HR, 6 RBIs Capra, who signed a minor league deal on Thanksgiving, provides the Red Sox with another veteran depth option should the team need a player for a short term. Capra can play not just third base but also second base and shortstop, giving the Sox someone they can plug into the lineup to give multiple players a day off if needed. Offensively, he isn't good, to put it frankly. In 142 career plate appearances, he has a stat line of .133/.181/.188 while striking out more times than he has hits (34 strikeouts to 17 hits). But he’s the kind of player the team has targeted before for minor league depth, a veteran presence who can play multiple positions. Defensively, he saw 110 2/3 innings in the field between second base and shortstop and didn’t commit a single error. Max Ferguson 118 games (Portland Sea Dogs/Worcester Red Sox), .205/.323/.313 .637 OPS, 13 2Bs, 1 3B, 9 HRs, 42 RBIs Ferguson is the definition of an organizational player. Acquired in the Eric Hosmer deal in 2022, Ferguson has spent his time in the Boston system playing for whatever minor league team needs a healthy body. 2023 saw him jump from High-A Greenville to Worcester when they needed bodies, and since 2024, he has constantly bounced between Worcester and Portland. Offensively, he knows the strike zone and can work a count, but has below-average bat speed and little success against left-handed pitching. Despite that, his speed and defense could make him a short-term bench piece for Cora should the need arise. Tyler McDonough 79 games, .254/.328/.369 .697 OPS, 12 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 5 HRs, 27 RBIs McDonough is currently a high-end organizational player and, at best. He could be a utility player who is shuttled between Triple-A and the major leagues as needed. Defensively, he split time between second base, shortstop, left field, and right field in 2025, while the middle infield was his primary location. With soft hands and solid defensively, McDonough can capably play several positions. Offensively, he is average when it comes to in-zone contact and chase rates, but he will struggle against breaking pitches down in the zone. Before the September 1 roster expansion, he was considered for the 28th roster spot by some due to his defensive versatility and the lack of other options. View the full article