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Even by their usual standards, this has been a slow-moving offseason for the Miami Marlins. Although the Marlins have had widespread "interest" in players capable of improving their lineup and late-inning relief, they've been unable to close any significant deals as of Friday morning. The handful of free agents to join the organization on minor league contracts profile as Triple-A depth. More than two months since Isaac Azout's pre-offseason roster projection, not much has changed. That being said, Fish On First's recent reporting has added some clarity to how Miami's internal options would be utilized if the 2026 season started today. Position players Default starting lineup: C Agustín Ramírez, 1B Eric Wagaman, 2B Xavier Edwards, 3B Graham Pauley, SS Otto Lopez, LF Kyle Stowers, CF Jakob Marsee, RF Griffin Conine, DH Heriberto Hernández Bench: C/1B Liam Hicks, UTIL Javier Sanoja, INF/OF Connor Norby, OF Dane Myers Eleven of these 13 names finished the 2025 season on the Marlins active roster, the only exceptions being Stowers (oblique strain) and Myers (knee laceration), who have since fully recovered from their injuries. It is still likely that the Marlins will acquire somebody to overtake or at least compete directly with Wagaman. If those efforts fail, it'd be a first-base-by-committee approach which may involve the likes of Hicks, Pauley, Conine and Hernández moving off their natural positions to patch things together. Just missed: C Joe Mack Historically, most prospects with Mack's pedigree have been excluded from the Marlins Opening Day roster for service-time manipulation purposes—assigning them to the minor leagues for two weeks delays their free agent eligibility by a full year. Particularly during Bruce Sherman's ownership tenure, cost-efficiency has taken priority over winning ballgames. I have to assume that approach will continue until proven otherwise. Similar to Ramírez last year, Mack will likely debut in mid-to-late April. Pitchers Starting rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Edward Cabrera, RHP Eury Pérez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Max Meyer Bullpen: RHP Ronny Henriquez, RHP Anthony Bender, RHP Calvin Faucher, RHP Tyler Phillips, LHP Cade Gibson, RHP Lake Bachar, LHP Andrew Nardi, RHP Janson Junk It feels like an eternity ago, but there was legitimate excitement around Meyer as a starter in spring training. He looked to be justifying the hype with a 2.10 ERA and 33.9% strikeout rate through his first five regular season starts. Regression hit him hard after that and his struggles were exacerbated by a hip injury. Although he ought to be on a short leash given the Marlins' abundance of rotation candidates, the former top draft pick will probably break camp with a starting job. The Marlins tendered Nardi a contract coming off a completely lost season. That doesn't mean his nagging back issue has been resolved. Even if available to take the mound, perhaps the quality of stuff will have diminished too much for him to reprise his 2023-24 role. Just missed: LHP Braxton Garrett, RHP Josh White Garrett would be the biggest beneficiary of a potential Cabrera trade. Barring that, he may have to bide his time in Jacksonville until a rotation spot opens up. White should be a welcome reinforcement for a bullpen that lacked swing-and-miss in 2025. It's just hard to squeeze him onto the roster if everybody's healthy and the Marlins decide to carry multiple lefty relievers. View the full article

The Blue Jays were two outs from ending a 32-year title drought before Miguel Rojas tied the game and sent it to extras. They were inches away from winning Game 7 when Isiah Kiner-Falefa was thrown out at the plate. The Dodgers would end up outlasting Toronto in the 11th to repeat as champions. A devastating end to an improbable season for the Jays. Considering the way the season started, it wasn’t a forgone conclusion that the Jays would even get to the postseason. Contributions by their stars and unheralded players enabled the Jays to win the division. From there, the team advanced to the World Series through razor-thin margins: a Game 7 ALCS decided by George Springer’s go-ahead homer and a World Series that swung on defensive gems and bullpen decisions. In 2026, the same coin flips may not have the same results. Through elite contact, improved infield defense, and matchup creativity, the Jays got ever so close to the elusive title. Repeating will take more than merely duplicating performance, as there are so many variables at play, including opposition results, injuries, team cohesion and overall luck. The same two teams have met in back-to-back World Series nine times in MLB history, with the most recent being the Yankees-Dodgers rematch in 1981 (after 1981, they met again in 2024). These rematches are rare, with notable instances involving the Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs and Tigers. The biggest offseason storyline for the team is still a waiting game: Will Bo Bichette re-sign and provide the Jays with a similar look to their lineup for 2026? His departure would require some shifting in the infield and force the team to look for other ways to replace his offensive output. The Jays’ win-now approach is clear. The $500 million extension Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed during the season and Dylan Cease’s recent $210 million deal anchor the payroll. Those moves signalled intent but may limit additional options. Money won’t necessarily buy love or championships. Historically, the highest-spending MLB teams are generally successful. They often make the playoffs and compete for championships. Prime examples would be the Dodgers and Yankees. However, spending money doesn’t guarantee winning seasons. Just look at the 2023 or 2025 Mets, who spent big with no result. Some teams, such as the Rays and Brewers, use smart development to compensate for lower payrolls, but that isn’t the way the Jays have elected to do things. To return to where they left off, the Jays will need to see some repeat performances. Springer posted career-best numbers at age 35. Ernie Clement became a postseason folk hero. Expecting both to repeat peak seasons may not be realistic. Will Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger continue on an upward trajectory? What about injuries? And that’s only the offence. Next season will see the introduction of Major League Baseball’s Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System. That will be an interesting new wrinkle for all teams, including the Jays. Alejandro Kirk’s framing will undoubtedly continue to be an advantage for the Jays, especially with the new system in place. Catchers who understand the edges, who know which pitches deserve a challenge and which should be let go, will save outs and baserunners over a season. The new starting rotation led by Cease and Kevin Gausman will be formidable. It will be fascinating to see how opposing lineups handle Trey Yesavage after his phenomenal debut at the end of last season and into the postseason. The postseason taught us that how a team uses its starters is as important as who those starters are. The Blue Jays leveraged matchups, piggybacks, and aggressive bullpen usage to keep games in reach. The regular season demands a different tempo. Gausman and Cease will need to soak up quality innings to preserve the relievers for leverage. Yesavage’s next step will be less about pure stuff than sequencing, stamina, and the patience to survive third-time-through exposures. If the rotation can blend efficiency with tactical flexibility, thereby shortening games when it must and stretching them when it can, the Jays might be able to survive the inevitable valleys of a six-month grind. Apart from bringing back Bichette or signing Kyle Tucker, the Jays are working on upgrading their bullpen. Bullpens, even more than starting rotations, are often the most unpredictable component of a team every season. Depending on a bullpen's usage during the regular season, its success can waver into the postseason. That was evident for both the Jays and Dodgers during the World Series. The coaching staff will see some new faces in 2026. Manager John Schneider, associate manager DeMarlo Hale and pitching coach Pete Walker will be back, as will hitting coach David Popkins. Don Mattingly stepped down from his role as bench coach at the end of the season, and assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense departed to San Francisco to become their hitting coach. New voices on the coaching staff may recalibrate risk tolerance or redefine what “aggressive” means on the bases. On the hitting side, the bridge between analytics and feel is delicate. Popkins’ return will keep the language consistent, but Mense’s exit removes a connector who helped translate data into daily routines for key players. The coaching staff’s main job in 2026 will be to retain the clarity that fueled 2025 while inviting fresh perspectives that can help the offense in specific matchups and mitigate poor decisions when the pressure mounts. Intangibles like team chemistry and how the players respond to adversity are where the “luck” and the magic of a season unfold. Beneath that, can the Jays maintain their league-best contact rate from 2025 and further improve their defense and bullpen? Replicating all of that won’t come easy. Not to mention that after a successful season as the top team in the American League, there will be a target on their backs. It will be hard for the Blue Jays to repeat their 2025 success in 2026, not because they were lucky, but because the precise set of factors that made 2025 work will be difficult to reproduce. Still, with bold adaptation and health, they can finish what they started in 2026. View the full article

The 2024 MLB Draft was the first one overseen by Craig Breslow following his hiring as the Chief Baseball Officer of the Boston Red Sox. Under Breslow, the Red Sox turned their attention to pitchers who had a combination of height, extension and a fastball with lots of upward mobility. They also looked at athletic positional players with the potential to have an impact bat while playing multiple positions. Quite a few of the top prospects drafted by the Red Sox in 2024 are no longer with the organization due to trades, but the ones who remained have begun to show promise. Here is a look at how the top selections performed in their first full professional season 2025. OF Braden Montgomery (Round 1, Pick 12) Montgomery never got to play a single game in the Red Sox organization after falling to them due to a fractured ankle he suffered in June. That didn’t keep his stock from falling too much, as the corner outfielder who had plus-plus raw power was traded to the Chicago White Sox as part of the package for Garrett Crochet. The 22-year-old proved to be past his ankle injury this year, as he played in 121 games across three levels and finished the season with a slash line of .270/.360/.444, good for an .804 OPS. He also hit 32 doubles, four triples, 12 home runs and drove in 68 RBIs. Defensively, he mostly split time between center field and right field when he wasn’t the designated hitter and finished the season with just three errors in 177 defensive chances while also recording eight assists. P Payton Tolle (Round 2, Pick 50) Everyone around here knows of what Tolle did this year. Christened as "The Piglet" for his size and fastball while following in the steps of Crochet ("The War Pig"), Tolle was absolutely impressive in 2025 as he not only skipped Single-A but pitched across four levels He made appearances in High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and in the majors with Boston. His time in the minors showcased why the Red Sox think so highly of him thanks to 133 strikeouts in just 91 2/3 innings, but his time with Boston proved that he still has some work to do. Tolle’s fastball is already great, but the need to develop secondary pitches is clear based on how he pitched at the major-league level. In 16 1/3 innings, Tolle surrendered 11 earned runs on 18 hits, including five home runs and eight walks, good for a 6.06 ERA. Despite that, he still struck out 19 batters, and his upside is as tantalizing as any pitcher in baseball. P Brandon Neely (Round 3, Pick 86) Neely missed the entire 2025 campaign due to forearm stiffness and made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League. Much like most pitchers in the AFL (which is a very hitter-friendly league), Neely had good and bad appearances as he appeared in five games and made one start. In total, he tossed 10 innings and allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits, one being a home run, and eight walks. He also struck out 11 during that span and flashed the potential that made him a third-round pick a few times. With a healthy 2026, Neely should be able to rise through the system quickly, especially if the team develops him as a bullpen arm while featuring his fastball-slider combination. OF Zach Ehrhard (Round 4, Pick 115) Ehrhard started the 2025 season off extremely hot, hitting .342/.471/.459 with High-A Greenville across his first 31 games. As one of the hottest hitters in the Red Sox organization at the time, Ehrhard was promoted to Double-A Portland where he began to cool off. Appearing in 58 games, Ehrhard would only slash .227/.305/.412 and would eventually be moved in a trade that now looks like a massive overpay by the Red Sox for pitcher Dustin May. Packaged with James Tibbs III, the two outfielders were shipped to the Los Angeles Dodgers, where Ehrhard would finish the season at Double-A Tulsa and appear in 34 games. In that time, he would go on to hit .282/.391/.466, looking more like the hitter he was to begin the season. Showcasing a mix of power and contact, Ehrhard proved why the Red Sox were interested in him for years — they also drafted (and failed to sign) him in the 13th round in 2021. P Brandon Clarke (Round 5, Pick 148) Another prospect from the 2024 draft that was traded, Clarke had an up-and-down season in the Red Sox's organization. Opening the season with Salem, Clarke looked like a potential steal as a fifth-round pick as he tossed 9 2/3 innings and allowed just one run on two hits while striking out 17. Armed with a fastball that could hit triple digits, it seemed like between Clarke and Tolle, the 2024 draft class had the potential to deliver two exciting pitchers. However, things went south for Clarke upon joining Greenville where minor injuries, stamina concerns and being wild on the mound led some to wonder if he was soon meant for the bullpen. In 11 starts with the Drive, Clarke would toss 28 1/3 innings while allowing 16 earned runs on 15 hits and a staggering 25 walks, not to mention 11 hit by pitches and 12 wild pitches. While he also struck out 43, he was no longer the hyped-up prospect that had made his way into Top 100 lists back in May. He would eventually be one of two pitchers (the other being Richard Fitts) sent to the St. Louis Cardinals as part of a trade that brought Sonny Gray back to Boston. P Blake Aita (Round 6, Pick 177) Aita did not pitch an inning in 2024 after getting drafted, as is standard for the majority of pitching prospects drafted by Boston the last few years. Instead, he made his debut with Single-A Salem in 2025, where, after 10 appearances, he was promoted to Greenville. With the Drive, Aita impressed, making 13 appearances, 10 of them starts going 3-4 with a 3.78 ERA across 64 1/3 innings. He also struck out 54 batters and walked 21. For the entire season, he appeared in 23 games and went 5-7 with a 3.98 ERA across 115 1/3 innings. He would go on to strike out 99 batters and walk 30. Aita has three pitchesL his fastball, sweeper and changeup. After sitting 89-92 mph in college, he has gotten his fastball to now sit 92-95 mph while his secondary stuff is ahead of his fastball thanks to his advanced feel for spin. His sweeper at times can get over 3200 RPMs and has shown bat-missing ability. During his time with Greenville, he only had two appearances where he allowed more than three earned runs, and he had six starts where he allowed two or fewer earned runs. Aita is an intriguing prospect whose future between the rotation and bullpen will be determined based on how his fastball develops. OF Will Turner (Round 7, Pick 207) Turner has had a rough start to his professional career which carried over from his final season in college. In that campaign with South Alabama, Turner saw his numbers drop to a batting line of .218/.409/.421 with 13 doubles and nine home runs along with 24 RBIs. In his first 23 games with Greenville at the end of the 2024 season, he struggled, hitting .081/.250/.122. The struggles continued as he opened the 2025 season on the injured list due to a broken hamate bone. Upon returning, Turner played 52 games between Greenville and the team’s Florida Complex squad, hitting just .156/.360/.265 with four doubles, four home runs and 20 RBIs. Despite that, he has a solid approach at the plate and rarely chases. Should he return to his pre-2024 form (prior to his tweaks in college to try and hit for more power), Turner could yield a lot of upside at the plate. His mechanics are already getting tweaked, and the hope is he can be more of the hitter he was in 2023 that made him a top-100 draft prospect and a Cape Cod League All-Star. Defensively, he split time between all three outfield positions and only made two errors (one in center field and one in right field). Currently, he profiles as an average defender and moves well in the outfield. P/SS Conrad Cason (Round 8, Pick 237) Cason was a high-risk, high-reward pick in 2024 as the team managed to get him to forego his Mississippi State commitment. While other teams wanted him to pitch exclusively, the Red Sox had interest in him as a two-way player. Unfortunately, Cason did not play much in 2025 as he made two appearances, one on the mound and the other as the designated hitter, before dealing with arm fatigue that became elbow soreness and eventually forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery on August 14. In his lone appearance on the mound, Cason tossed two innings, walked a batter and struck out five. Offensively. he went 1-for-4 with an RBI. Cason has been rehabbing since then and appears to be on track for spring training, though there is no timetable for when he will get back into game action. (For more information about Cason, check out our exclusive interview with the prospect from October). The 2024 draft class has shown a mix of ups and downs for the Red Sox, with some players emerging as stars and others stalling in their development. Several players may be gone, but in being traded, they helped bring in quality major league talent. The verdict may be out on most of these players, but such is the case in baseball drafts. The early returns appear positive, and for that, the Red Sox should be patting themselves on the back. View the full article

The 2026 MLB Draft Lottery did not go in the Miami Marlins' favor. For the second consecutive year, they were leapfrogged by multiple teams that finished ahead of them in the standings. Miami was projected to get the ninth pick in the first round. However, they fell five spots and are locked in at pick #14. Not only will have they have to wait longer to get access to amateur talent, but their overall bonus pool is smaller than it would've been otherwise, which will limit their flexibility in later rounds. The Marlins have had some success with the 14th overall pick. Drafting from the same position in 2011, they selected two-time All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year right-handed pitcher José Fernández. With the 2026 draft still seven months away, here are six prospects who could be an option for the Marlins with the 14th pick. 1. Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle HS (CA) Stanford commit Tyler Spangler looks to be the next top California high school product to be taken in the top of the first round. Spangler looks to have plus power potential, with the chance for plus-plus as he matures. He does a great job of hitting pull-side and getting backspin on the ball. He combines this power with an above-average hit tool for his age and the ability to play shortstop. The 6’3” left-handed hitter will be 18 on draft night. 2. Chris Hacopian, SS, Texas A&M One of the top hitters available in the 2026 MLB Draft is Texas A&M infielder Chris Hacopian. The 6’1”, 200-pound infielder spent his first two seasons at the University of Maryland before entering the Transfer Portal last offseason. During the 2025 season, Hacopian slashed .375/.502/.656 with 72 hits, twelve doubles, fourteen home runs, 61 RBIs, 40 walks, and a 1.158 OPS. Hacopian is the 14th-ranked draft prospect on Baseball America and the 16th-ranked draft prospect on MLB Pipeline. At the plate, Hacopian might be the best pure hitter in the draft not named Roch Cholowsky. He has an excellent feel for the strike zone and rarely chases out of the zone. He consistently makes loud contact and possesses above-average power. Hacopian projects to play third base at the next level. 3. Brady Harris, OF, Trinity Christian HS (FL) Going back multiple years, Brady Harris has been a highly regarded piece of the 2026 draft class. With the stick, Harris has a natural swing and a presence in the batter’s box. Generating strong exit velocities and a knack for hit the ball into both gaps of the outfield defense, Harris utilizes his speed to pull off extra base hits. He has shown some holes in his swing and will need to work on his plate approach moving forward. The Florida native's stock has fallen slightly after a tough summer, but Harris continues to get first-round buzz due to his strong floor and projections. He has shown the requisite speed, instincts, and arm strength that point in the direction of sticking at center field. Brady Harris will be fun to keep track of as the MLB Draft nears. 4. A.J. Garcia, OF, Virginia Another position player who entered the Transfer Portal this offseason was outfielder A.J. Garcia. The Duke transfer is coming off a monster sophomore campaign and could be an option for the Marlins with the 14th pick. In his final season at Duke, Garcia slashed .294/.445/.558 with 63 hits, ten doubles, one triple, fifteen home runs, 54 RBIs, 57 walks, and a 1.007 OPS. After two seasons at Duke, Garcia entered the Transfer Portal and committed to Virginia. Garcia is the ninth-ranked draft prospect on Baseball America and the fifteenth-ranked draft prospect on MLB Pipeline. At the plate, Garcia is one of the top power hitters in the 2026 draft class. His raw power is rated at a 60 grade. He has a good approach at the plate and makes great swing decisions. He broke Duke’s record for most walks in a season with 57 free passes. While he played center field last season, Garcia projects as a corner outfielder in the pros. 5. Gio Rojas, LHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) South Florida native and University of Miami committee Gio Rojas is the top high school pitcher in the 2026 draft class. Rojas is 6’4”, 190pounds and will be 19 on draft day. His fastball sits 92-95 mph and he has some deception in his delivery. Coming from a lower arm slot, his velo plays up. Rojas also has a great changeup and breaking ball, which showcases his feel for spin. It may be unlikely that Gio Rojas is available at pick 14, but some teams may be unwilling to select a high school lefty so high, something the Marlins historically have not feared. Rojas is extremely projectable and may be able to move through a system fast. His ability to throw strikes, offer three plus pitches, and dominate hitters have teams excited about him. 6. Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida Florida Gators right-handed pitcher Liam Peterson is one of the top pitchers available in the 2026 MLB Draft. Peterson was once a Top 100 draft prospect coming out of high school and could be a top-15 pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. In his sophomore season, Peterson made sixteen appearances and fifteen starts for the Gators. Peterson posted an 8-4 record with a 4.28 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 96 strikeouts in 69 ⅓ innings pitched. Peterson is the fourth-ranked draft prospect on Baseball America and the thirteenth-ranked draft prospect on MLB Pipeline. On the mound, Peterson has a four-pitch arsenal, including one of the best fastballs in the draft class. Peterson’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and has been clocked at 99 mph with good carry. His 12-6 curveball and slider are above-average pitches and can generate swing-and-miss. Peterson needs to be more consistent and improve his command. The Sunshine State native is incredibly talented, but needs to put it together heading into the 2026 season. View the full article

After missing out on Mike Yastrzemski (who opted to sign a two-year deal with the Atlanta Braves), the Royals acquired some much-needed outfield help on Thursday night. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Kansas City signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $5.2 million deal with $1 million in incentives. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com posted the financial details of Thomas' deal on social media. Thomas has spent the last 1.5 seasons with the Guardians and previously played for the Nationals. 2025 was a tough season for Thomas, as he was limited to 39 games and 142 plate appearances due to a wrist injury and plantar fasciitis, which landed him on the IL twice. In that small sample, Thomas slashed .160/.246/.272 with a .518 OPS and 48 wRC+. He also had a -0.5 fWAR, the worst mark of his career, and his Statcast percentiles were pretty poor as well, as illustrated in his TJ Stats Statcast summary below. In addition to ranking in the first percentile in wOBA and xwOBA, he also ranked in the 1st percentile in LA Sweet-Spot percentage, 2nd percentile in Z-Contact percentage, 3rd percentile in strikeout rate, 7th percentile in whiff rate, and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate. The only things Thomas did well at the plate last season were not to chase (83rd percentile O-Swing%) and draw a decent number of walks (72nd percentile BB%). While the numbers from last year aren't impressive, Thomas is an intriguing signing who comes with little financial risk (only a one-year deal) and boosts the depth in the outfield. He could also be used expertly by manager Matt Quatraro in centerfield with Kyle Isbel, who posted a 79 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR in 409 plate appearances last season. Thus, let's take a look at Thomas' overall profile and his outlook for the Royals in 2026. Thomas Is a Platoon Option With a Questionable Defensive History Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't acquire Thomas to be the primary answer to the Royals' outfielder woes from last season (they ranked last in wRC+ and fWAR). Instead, the 30-year-old former Blue Jays draft pick should help solidify the centerfield position, especially when Isbel needs a game off against left-handed starting pitchers. The overall numbers weren't great for Thomas last year, but he did perform better against lefties than righties, according to Fangraphs. Against righties, he posted a 43 wRC+, .094 ISO, and 0.25 BB/K ratio. Against lefties? He posted a 58 wRC+, .150 ISO, and 0.50 BB/K ratio. He posted better power and showcased stronger plate discipline against southpaws than righties last season. Over his career, Thomas has a 135 wRC+, .208 ISO, and a 0.48 BB/K ratio against lefties. That is much better than 84 wRC+, .163 ISO, and 0.27 BB/K ratio against righties. For further context, Isbel has a career 64 wRC+, .062 ISO, and 0.23 BB/K ratio against lefties. Thus, while Thomas wasn't sensational, he does offer more upside offensively against left-handed pitchers than Isbel. The Royals likely acquired Thomas because he can play centerfield. Unfortunately, the Royals didn't get much production from center fielders beyond Isbel, as shown in the table below. Unfortunately, the defensive data hasn't exactly been endearing to Thomas. Thomas struggled defensively for the Guardians in 2025. According to Statcast data, He posted a 0 FRV (fielding run value) and a -2 OAA (outs above average) for the Guardians last season, primarily playing center field. Furthermore, over his career, Thomas's defensive numbers aren't encouraging, based on OAA and FRV data. His career OAA is -17, and his FRV is -3. His best defensive season came in 2023 with the Nationals, when he posted a +2 FRV, but -4 OAA (primarily due to his porous play in right field that season). DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) isn't much kinder, as he had a career -18 DRS in the outfield and a -7 career DRS in centerfield, according to Fangraphs. Thus, it will be interesting to see how Thomas is utilized defensively and how he adjusts to Kauffman Stadium's spacious confines. So much of Isbel's value is tied to his defensive value and his ability to rob base hits and save runs. That ability was noticed this year by the experts, as he was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove award (though he came up short to Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela). Can Thomas at least provide average defensive value in centerfield when Isbel needs those games off? And if he can't defensively, can he at least make up for it on the hitting end? Looking at his 2024 metrics and Statcast data could give a hint as to whether the latter is possible. Could Thomas Bounce Back To His 2024 Self (At Least)? Last season wasn't exactly a fair portrait of Thomas due to his injuries. Thus, to get a fuller picture of Thomas, it is essential to look at what he did in 2024 when he played with the Nationals and Guardians (he was traded to Cleveland at the Trade Deadline that season). The numbers are not eye-popping, but they're certainly better than 2025 and not bad for a fourth outfielder. With the Nationals and Guardians in 2024, Thomas slashed .237/.309/.400 with a .709 OPS and 99 wRC+. He also posted a 1.4 fWAR, hit 15 home runs, scored 65 runs, collected 63 RBI, and stole 32 bases. He came up clutch in the postseason that year, launching a big grand slam against AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in Game 5 of the ALDS. When looking at his TJ Stats Statcast summary from 2024, it was a lot more promising than his summary from his injury-plagued 2025. Thomas' 2024 percentiles weren't impressive, but they weren't as poor as in 2025. He also still posted a strong O-Swing% of 22.9%, ranking in the 87th percentile. Thus, Thomas can at least provide professional, disciplined at-bats at the end of the batting order, which the Royals didn't consistently do last season. To compare, let's look at Isbel's TJ Stats Statcast summary from last year. Isbel seems much better at making contact and avoiding strikeouts (69th percentile K rate). However, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate paled in comparison to what Thomas did in 2024. Hence, Isbel and Thomas could be a nice platoon in 2026, giving the Royals different elements from the centerfield position, depending on the pitching matchup. Ultimately, that's what Thomas is for the Royals: Another piece of the puzzle in the outfield, but not the leading solution. At $5.2 million, he's not paid to be that primary outfielder in 2026, either. If the Royals can get the 2024 value of Thomas in this upcoming season, then Kansas City will be satisfied with their first major pickup of the winter. The Royals have more and bigger moves on the horizon this offseason, especially if they want to improve their lineup for 2026 significantly. That said, acquiring Thomas is a nice piece that fills a need off the bench (right-handed centerfielder), who may carry some bigger upside if he can stay healthy. View the full article

Jason and Mitch recap the MLB Winter Meetings, discuss recent Cubs free agent and trade rumors, and discuss the pickup of side-arming lefty reliever, Hoby Milner. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View the full article

Carson McCusker is a man who is defined by his height—80 inches, to be exact, but who’s counting? If someone knows the name Carson McCusker, they know it because he’s 6-foot-8. He’s tied for the tallest hitter in MLB history, and only eight pitchers have ever been taller. For an exceptionally tall person, it’s hard to have the fine motor control needed to succeed in baseball. That McCusker ever made the big leagues is an accomplishment in itself, even if it was brief, and with his intentions to play baseball in Asia after his release from Minnesota, it’s unclear that he will ever don an MLB uniform again. But even if that doesn’t happen, it did happen. He had 30 big-league plate appearances. He was no Moonlight Graham, no 2021 Drew Maggi. He got his moment in the sun, regardless of how short that moment was. And he earned it. He did it the hard way. McCusker went undrafted in 2021 and signed with the Tri-City Valleycats of the independent Frontier League. Thousands of men choose to try to keep the dream alive with a couple of years playing in front of a couple of thousand fans every couple of nights, somewhere in rural America. Really, McCusker’s story is a piece of Americana legend. He was a larger-than-life, Paul Bunyan-like character who did one thing well—hitting the ball a country mile—hoping he could hit it just far enough to get a chance. He left his arid town out west—Sparks, Nevada—to enroll at a community college in Folsom, California (yes, where the county prison of Johnny Cash fame lies), before transferring to Oklahoma State. After his draft disappointment, he found himself in Upstate New York, playing indy ball, trying to put one over the Adirondacks to get his shot. McCusker’s dream was eventually realized. Each year, several players are purchased out of independent baseball by some MLB team, and stashed away in some low-level affiliate. McCusker joined the Single-A Fort Myers Mighty Mussels in 2023 as a 25-year-old, nearly four years older than the average player at the level, both he and the Twins hoping that he could hit just enough moonshots off opponents who couldn’t legally drink to justify moving him up the ladder. And Baseball’s Paul Bunyan kept marching, hitting enough tape-measure shots to go from Folsom to Stillwater, from Troy to Fort Myers, from Cedar Rapids to Wichita before finally arriving in the Twin Cities by the end of 2024. It’s remarkable, really, that the mountain of a man was able to scale four levels of minor-league baseball in just over a calendar year, two years after every team passed on drafting him at least 20 times. But once you’re in St. Paul, you’re almost in Minneapolis. Blast after blast, the big dude dinged enough dongs to put himself on the radar for a call-up. But even the best stories need a little luck. He got his call in May 2025, because of a rash of injuries to Minnesota’s outfield, less than two years after he was first plucked out of the Frontier League. He had his shot. It was a narrow one—perhaps too narrow a shot for a man of his frame. In his first stint with Minnesota, he received six plate appearances across nine games, finally achieving his first hit. It didn’t land in the parking lot, merely a blooper into right field, minutes before being demoted back to Triple A. But the lid was off. He’d seen one fall in a big-league stadium. Maybe, next time, the towering home runs would come. Few opportunities to hit those bombs materialized for the man whose future relied so heavily on them. In mid-September, after much of the Twins’ talent had been sent off to teams with playoff dreams that Minnesota no longer had, McCusker was given the green light on a 3-0 count, and he uncorked that long swing of his. With men on first and second, the ball flew off the bat to dead center at 102 miles per hour, soaring through a windy Minnesota night sky—and fell to the earth 402 feet later, directly in front of the 403 sign on the outfield fence. Just inches from becoming one of just a few thousand players to hit an MLB home run, the Kid Who Only Hit Homers’ fly ball was knocked down and died on the track, marked F-8 like any other. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and there’s no fanfare for almost leaving the yard. But that’s as close as he ever got. The man who is nearly ubiquitously defined by his height came up inches short of doing what every little boy dreams of doing someday. It’s heartbreaking. And it’s beautiful. View the full article

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Brewers agreed on Thursday to sign outfielder Akil Baddoo to a major-league deal. The 27-year-old owns a career .224/.305/.369 line (87 wRC+) across parts of five seasons with the Detroit Tigers. His most successful big-league stint was his rookie campaign, in which he hit .259/.330/.436 (108 wRC+) after the Tigers selected him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Swing-and-miss issues and a lack of hard contact started catching up to him after that, though, and he has since bounced on and off Detroit's roster. Baddoo spent most of 2025 with Triple-A Toledo, pairing a .385 on-base percentage with 15 home runs for a 136 wRC+. That wasn't enough to secure a more stable future in a talented Tigers' outfield, so they outrighted him off their 40-man roster in June, and he elected minor-league free agency at the end of the season. In Milwaukee, he'll join an outfield with a plethora of left-handed outfield options, including Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Tyler Black, and switch-hitters Isaac Collins, Blake Perkins, and Steward Berroa. There's some uncertainty throughout that group, but Baddoo falls into the same boat. Barring injuries or underperformance, that could be a tough roster to make out of spring training. While Baddoo's deal is reportedly a big-league contract, he does have one option year remaining. At first glance, he looks like minor-league depth with some upside, should the Brewers need to change things up on the grass during the season. Because the Brewers' 40-man roster entered Thursday at 39 players, no corresponding move is necessary to add Baddoo. The roster is now full. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a one-year deal with free-agent relief pitcher Hoby Milner, according to a report from Bleacher Nation's Michael Cerami. Milner, 34, fills a key need for the bullpen-needy Cubs, who saw both Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar hit free agency after playing huge roles for them in 2025. A late-blooming journeyman who throws from a true sidearm angle, Milner became a revelation for the Brewers under now-Cubs manager Craig Counsell in 2022 and 2023. He's a soft-tosser who has never racked up strikeouts, but he excels at managing contact and has historically been one of the league's best strike-throwers. He took a step back in 2024, leading the Brewers to non-tender him last November. He signed a one-year deal with the Rangers, where he rebounded in some ways but struggled in others; his walk rate rose and his strikeout rate fell. However, Milner remains one of the least comfortable at-bats in the majors for left-handed batters, and he's an affable and helpful clubhouse presence. He induces ground balls exceptionally well, and when he can command all four of his pitches, he can dominate in the right matchups. More so than Pomeranz or Thielbar, he's also exceptionally durable. As of earlier this week, sources said there was mutual interest in a return engagement between the Cubs and Pomeranz, whose stuff profile is different enough from Milner to make it plausible that the team will roster both. For now, though, the club has filled one of the many vacancies on their 40-man roster, and one of the many holes in a bullpen that had been evacuated at season's end. View the full article

“Come on, Chen!” It was June 4, 2010. An otherwise random Friday night game in an already-lost season, as the Royals entered the game at 22-33 on the year. But the first “Big Slick” charity event to raise money for Kansas City’s Children’s Mercy Hospital was held at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City’s favorite celebrity sons - Rob Riggle, Paul Rudd, and Jason Sudeikis - were in town for the weekend with some of their show business friends. In a dugout suite, Royals television broadcaster Joel Goldberg attempted to interview some of them. But (a possibly inebriated) Will Ferrell kept hollering at the somewhat obscure pitcher on the mound. “Come on, Chen!” As social media was gaining steam, this moment quickly became a meme, at least among Royals fans. It helped that Bruce Chen was about to embark on the best three-season stretch of his career, with all three of those years in Kansas City as he helped stabilize a rotation that desperately needed dependable arms. Bruce Kastulo Chen was born on June 19, 1977, in Panama City, Panama. You might think “Chen” is an unusual surname for someone born in Panama, but there is an explanation. Many Chinese people fled their home country during a time of civil war in the 1920s, settling in Panama. One of those was Bruce’s grandfather, just a boy when his parents sent him (on his own!) to waiting relatives in Panama. Because he is Panamanian, Chen was not subject to the MLB draft. The Atlanta Braves signed him as an amateur free agent in 1993, just days after he turned 16. He didn’t exactly have a quick climb through the minors, but he did make his major league debut on September 7, 1998. He was able to stick with Atlanta for the second half of the 1999 season, making a few starts but mostly pitching in relief. He pitched in 22 games for the Braves in 2000 before a July trade sent him to Philadelphia. This began the “bouncing around” portion of Chen’s career. A left-handed pitcher is always in demand, and Chen was traded again (to the Mets) in 2001, to the Expos in April 2002, to the Reds in June 2002, and was released by both the Reds and the Astros in 2003, eventually signing with the Red Sox. As a free agent after the season, he signed with Toronto but didn’t pitch in the majors for them, and was sent to Baltimore at the beginning of May 2004. Here, Chen finally found some stability. He only pitched in eight games for the Orioles in 2004, but performed well (2-1, 3.02 ERA) in seven starts. In 2005, with a spot in the rotation for the whole season, he had his best year to date, with a 13-10 record and 3.83 ERA. But he wasn’t as fortunate in 2006, going 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA in his first 10 starts before being demoted to the bullpen. He never did pick up a win that season, finishing 0-7 with a 6.93 ERA. In a case of unfortunate timing, Chen was a free agent after that season. He wound up signing a minor league deal with Texas, but made the Opening Day roster. However, he was soon sent to Triple-A, then sidelined by an elbow injury. The ensuing Tommy John surgery cost him the rest of the season and all of 2008. That led to another minor league deal, this time with the Royals. He finally returned to the majors in late June, and after a few rough outings, seemed to find his groove. Chen finished the year with a 1-6 record and 5.78 ERA, but Kansas City was interested enough to re-sign him, again on a minor league deal, in the offseason. Chen started the year at triple-A Omaha, but was with the Royals before the end of April, as the bullpen had a disastrous beginning to the year. The start where “Come on, Chen!” was born was actually just his second one of the year (by the way, Ferrell’s exhortations helped; Chen outdueled a young Max Scherzer for the win). Roughly a month later, he gave Royals fans a thrill by taking a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Angels. A one-out home run in the eighth ended that, but Chen and the Royals still picked up a win. At the end of the season, Chen led Royals starters in wins (12) and ERA (4.17, tied with Zack Greinke). His final start of the year was another memorable one, as he notched his first career shutout with a 7-0 blanking of Tampa Bay. The 12 wins were the most by a Royals southpaw since Charlie Leibrandt won 13 and Floyd Bannister won 12 in 1988. Chen was granted the Joe Burke Special Achievement award by the Kansas City chapter of the BBWAA. He also received another contract, this one a major league deal, for the 2011 season. And Chen once again delivered. He led the starters in wins (12, again) and ERA (3.77 this time), although a strained back muscle limited him to 25 starts. Still, he received the Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year award from the KC BBWAA voters. Royals fans perhaps didn’t realize it at the time, but the core of the 2014-15 teams was assembling at the major-league level. But the position players were arriving before the pitchers, so Chen was a valuable stabilizing force in a rotation that no longer had Greinke, as he had been traded to Milwaukee in the offseason. The Royals were happy to once again re-sign Chen, this time on a two-year contract. And Chen continued to be an anchor in a still-unsettled rotation in 2012, leading the majors with 34 starts, including the honors on Opening Day. He also tossed the second-most innings of his career (191 ⅔). He did pick up the most strikeouts of his career, with 140. But home runs were a problem; Chen allowed 33 long balls, up from 18 the year before. That led to his ERA jumping to 5.07. The Royals upgraded their rotation for 2013, bringing in Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, and James Shields. With mid-year acquisition Jeremy Guthrie already in the fold, and some spring training struggles on top of that, Chen found himself squeezed out of the rotation to start the year. To his credit, he quickly found his niche in the bullpen, maintaining a 2.41 ERA into early July. With Luis Mendoza struggling, Chen rejoined the rotation. He went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 starts down the stretch as Kansas City, for the first time in a decade, played meaningful games in September. Although the Royals missed out on the postseason, things looked promising for 2014. The Royals again re-signed Chen, this time to a one-year deal for 2014 with a mutual option for 2015. He began the 2014 season in the rotation but, at the end of April, was diagnosed with a bulging disc in his back. He would miss two months with that ailment, then struggled in his return. He did pick up a win over Chicago on July 22, tying him with Mariano Rivera for the most major league wins by a Panamanian pitcher (82). Unfortunately, that would be his last career win. After more struggles in the bullpen, the Royals designated Chen for assignment at the end of August. Chen signed with Cleveland ahead of the 2015 season, but after two poor performances, he announced his retirement. It was a disappointing ending to a career, but still, he had accomplished a lot. He pitched in the World Baseball Classic four times: for Panama in 2006 and 2009 and for China in 2013 and 2017. He played for 17 seasons in the majors, mentoring future Royals stars like Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura (Chen served as Ventura’s interpreter for much of his time in KC); earning an AL championship ring; and winning the admiration of Royals fans. And of course, becoming a meme, thanks to Will Ferrell. View the full article

Derek Shelton arrived in Minnesota this winter with years of perspective, gleaned from guiding one of baseball’s youngest rosters. But when reporters asked him what he truly learned in Pittsburgh about developing young hitters, he didn’t hesitate. The biggest takeaway was startling and straightforward: Triple-A competition no longer prepares players for the major leagues. Shelton’s blunt assessment sets the tone for a Twins organization preparing to lean heavily on its next wave of position-player talent. And if Minnesota wants its top prospects to hit the ground running, it will need to understand the widening gulf in today’s game—one Shelton witnessed firsthand. Triple A is No Longer a Finishing School When asked what he learned during his Pirates tenure, Shelton offered a candid answer. “I learned that Triple A does not prepare you for the big leagues," he said. "I think that's the biggest thing I learned.” That gap has continued to grow. “It’s just the automated strike zone in Triple A, the quality of pitching, the velocity is just not the same,” Shelton said. Shelton watched young players dominate Triple-A opponents, only to struggle immediately in the majors. It was not just a Pittsburgh problem. It was baseball-wide. “It’s why we’re seeing, as an industry, so many young players come to the big leagues and struggle," Shelton explained. "They just don't hit. The pitching is just too good here. And the pitching they're facing in Triple A is not there.” As the distinction sharpens, the hitting lines in Triple A have become increasingly misleading. “As an industry, we’re seeing more young players fail and go back to the minor leagues, and you guys are able to write articles this guy has 1.100 OPS in Triple A, and he comes to the big leagues… it's throughout the industry that guys are struggling,” Shelton lamented. Shelton acknowledged that he doesn’t have a magic fix. No one does. “I wish I had a really good answer for you, but it’s just the fact that the distance between the talent in Triple A and the big leagues is probably the greatest it’s ever been,” said Shelton, who has been continuously employed in professional baseball for 30 years. That widening distance forces clubs into difficult decisions when players hit their first wall. Reporters asked how sending players back to Triple A helps, when the competition level is part of the problem. Shelton said the benefits are not always physical. “Sometimes it just helps them mentally. I mean, obviously," he replied. "You get your teeth kicked in enough times, sometimes you need a reset, you need a refresh.” There are still real adjustments players can make, even in an imperfect environment. “There are mechanical adjustments you can make. And I think, depending on the organization and where they’re at, they have to make that decision of, you know, does this individual stay in the big leagues and try to figure it out, or do you send him down, give him a little bit of confidence?” Shelton’s perspective matters, because the Twins are about to rely heavily on young hitters making this exact transition. By mid-2026, Minnesota could have one of the most prospect-driven lineups in the American League. Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez finished last season in St. Paul, where both showed flashes of elite upside. Jenkins finished the year with a 135 wRC+ as a 20-year-old. Rodriguez used the offseason to become one of the best hitters in the Dominican Winter League, posting a 1.063 OPS in 18 games. They will enter spring training just one rung away from Target Field. Each has the power, plate discipline, and athleticism to become a foundational piece. Still, Shelton’s experience is a reminder that dominating Triple-A pitching no longer guarantees early major-league success. Kaelen Culpepper, the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year, rocketed to Double-A Wichita with strong bat-to-ball skills and athleticism. In 113 games, he posted a 138 wRC+ and answered many of the questions that surrounded him on draft day. His development curve has already accelerated faster than expected, making him a likely Triple-A candidate by early 2026. That move puts him on the doorstep of an even bigger leap—one that will challenge how the Twins choose to prepare their hitters before promotion. Gabriel Gonzalez turned in a breakout season of his own, hitting his way to Triple A while showcasing improved swing decisions and run-producing ability (148 wRC+). Twins Daily named him the organization’s Minor League Hitter of the Year. His offensive skill set fits the modern Twins lineup, but like Jenkins and Rodriguez, his path runs straight through the talent gap Shelton described. From now through late 2026, Shelton will play a central role in helping these young players navigate the steepest transition in professional baseball. He has already watched countless hitters sail through Triple A, only to get humbled in the big leagues. His challenge will be using that experience to soften the landing for a group expected to define the organization’s next era. Shelton did not come to Minnesota with easy answers, but he did bring clarity about one of the sport’s most pressing development issues. The jump from Triple A to the majors has never been tougher, and the Twins will soon place some of their brightest stars on that tightrope. What Shelton learned in Pittsburgh may ultimately shape how ready Minnesota’s next wave truly is when their time arrives. Can Shelton help the next group of stars transition to MLB? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

During Ross Atkins’s initial media availability at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, he provided an update about Shane Bieber’s health that left some pundits a bit concerned. Atkins said that Bieber is in a "strong position" physically with a realistic path to Opening Day. Yet, the GM emphasized that the team will be monitoring Bieber week to week and is considering staggering his offseason and spring training workload. That means he may not be 100 percent ready by the start of the regular season. In Atkins's exact words, “As of right now, [Bieber is] in a strong position. And I suppose as he starts to ramp up, we could consider some stagger and the potential of him, you know, not being at 100 percent at the very start, but we’re taking it kind of a week at a time at this point” (via Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith). Bieber’s situation is particularly significant because he is not just any starter. He is the Jays' number three starter and a former Cy Young Award winner who demonstrated he still has what it takes to be a dominant presence in the majors. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024, and his first action since returning to the majors was with the Jays down the stretch. In seven regular season games, Bieber was effective, and his success and reliability helped Toronto get to within a couple of outs of a World Series title. According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, a number of MLB executives were “baffled” by Bieber’s decision to opt in to his $16 million option for 2026. Now, with news of an apparent health issue, that decision might be better understood. According to Rosenthal's colleague Mitch Bannon, Bieber has already started offseason recovery and rehab work as a result of forearm fatigue experienced at the end of the season. If Bieber potentially couldn’t pass a physical, then his decision to opt into a team-friendly deal makes a bit more sense. Forearm fatigue after Tommy John surgery is neither rare nor trivial. The flexor-pronator mass plays an important role in stabilizing the elbow, and its adaptation under game stress takes time. The plan, as laid out by Atkins, calls for the team to monitor Bieber week to week and potentially reduce his spring workload. That aligns with best practices. Whether it is a pitcher or a weekend tennis player, physiology researchers say spacing out high-intensity sessions, tracking recovery markers, and avoiding cumulative stress are key to rehabilitation. By considering early-season pitch count limits and occasional skipped side sessions, the Jays aim to preserve Bieber’s effectiveness across a full season. With that said, forearm injuries can be tricky to resolve. Several top-tier pitchers have dealt with forearm fatigue, including Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, both during their time with the Mets. DeGrom required a second Tommy John surgery in 2023, loosely connected with his forearm fatigue issues. Since his return in late 2024, he has been quite successful. Syndergaard has had several arm issues throughout his career. His arm issues date back to 2014, while in the minors, when he was placed on the injured list for a forearm (flexor-pronator) strain. He missed the entire 2020 season and most of the 2021 season as a result of Tommy John surgery. He did pitch in 2022 and 2023, but hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2023 and is currently a free agent. Kyle Lohse experienced forearm issues during the middle of his career. After his forearm issues were resolved through surgery in 2010, he pitched another four strong seasons for the Cardinals and Brewers. Atkins’s remarks were deliberate and perhaps intended to set the stage should Bieber's rehab not go as planned. He projected confidence in the 2020 AL Cy Young winner's trajectory while avoiding any guarantees, thereby signaling that the organization values flexibility over expediting the rehab. The week-to-week language he used is standard in return-to-play plans, but its presence underscores the Jays’ intent to prioritize quality over quantity during spring training. If Bieber experiences minor setbacks, these comments allow adjustments without framing those setbacks as failures. This is especially important given the late-season forearm fatigue, which typically requires careful management of throw volume, intensity, and recovery windows. While one can only guess, the high-adrenaline and high-intensity outings Bieber pitched in during the stretch run and into the postseason presumably put additional strain on his arm and most likely caused the fatigue. He pitched 40.1 regular season innings and another 18.2 in the postseason, with an ERA under 4.00. News of his upcoming ramp-up further explains the Jays' recent starting pitcher signings. The club signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal and added depth with Cody Ponce. They are continuing to explore additional pitching options. This redundancy will allow them to manage Bieber conservatively without sacrificing early-season competitiveness. If Bieber needs a staggered start or reduced pitch counts in April, the rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Ponce, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos can absorb the load. This depth-first approach isn’t uncommon for teams with postseason aspirations, where marginal gains in pitcher health translate into disproportionate postseason value. The 2026 season will ultimately judge whether the approach being taken by the Jays when it comes to Bieber is correct. Atkins’s Winter Meetings remarks suggest that the Blue Jays understand the terrain. As a former minor league pitcher, Atkins probably understands the situation a little bit better than most. The way he is handling the situation, while frustrating for some fans, is most likely well-received by pitchers in the organization. Prioritizing long-term health over short-term gain can be part of a team’s culture. It might even influence some players to join an organization when they feel it will look after them rather than just use them. When the Jays traded for Bieber, they were hoping he would be able to return to his top form. He certainly demonstrated that he can still pitch at a high level, and now the Jays will ramp him up cautiously in 2026 to ensure he can play a similar role as he did in 2025. With a deep starting rotation that reduces the temptation to rush, the Jays can be cautious with Bieber. That patience could serve them well as the 2026 season unfolds. View the full article

Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic are reporting the Cubs are receiving significant interest on second baseman Nico Hoerner in trade talks. They are clear in that the Cubs are not actively seeking to move the veteran. Hoerner, 28 years old, was signed to a three-year, $35 million extension that runs through the 2026 season, buying out his remaining arbitration years. Over the past two seasons, he has been the Cubs’ everyday second baseman. In 2024, he played 151 games and logged 641 plate appearances with seven home runs, 86 runs scored, and 31 steals, along with a 6.9 percent walk rate and 10.3 percent strikeout rate. His triple slash was .273/.335/.373, with a .313 wOBA and 102 wRC+. In 2025, he appeared in 156 games and 649 plate appearances, again hitting seven home runs with 89 runs scored and 29 steals. He posted a 6.0 percent walk rate, 7.6 percent strikeout rate, a .297/.345/.394 line, .324 wOBA and 109 wRC+, and 4.8 WAR. View the full article

Every year, the fantastic folks at MKE Tailgate and Reporting As Eligible put together a donation drive for Hunger Task Force out of Milwaukee. This year, Brewer Fanatic is joining their commendable effort, and ask that you do the same! This holiday season, Milwaukee's Tailgate and Reporting as Eligible are thrilled to be hosting another virtual food drive on behalf of Hunger Task Force in Milwaukee. This can be an especially challenging season, and this year in particular has been tough for so many. We know that not everyone is in a position to help out on something like this and that there is a lot of competition for your money, but we hope you'll consider giving what you can to this very worthy organization. As with our last couple of drives, we will once again be raffling off a chance to win a pair of tickets as a little added incentive to give. The tickets are for the Packers' last home game of the season against the Baltimore Ravens on either December 27th or 28th. They are in section 118, row 17, between the 35th and 40th yard line, right behind the Packers bench. As you can see for yourself in the attached photo, the view from these seats is spectacular. In order to give and be eligible to win, all you need to do is click here to donate money directly to Hunger Task Force. You will receive one entry for every $20 increment donated, and all you need to do to enter the raffle is email your receipt of donation to us at Milwaukees.tailgate@gmail.com, and we'll take care of the rest. Entry for the raffle will stay open through 5 PM CST on Monday, December 22nd. We will once again be conducting the raffle itself live online, and details for how you can join that video will also be posted here as the date approaches. We'll do the drawing at 6 PM that evening and notify the winner immediately. Thank you in advance for your generosity. You've come through in a big way every time we've done one of these, and we're hoping for an all-time high level of support this time through! Click To Help The Hungry View the full article

Every year, the fantastic folks at MKE Tailgate and Reporting As Eligible put together a donation drive for Hunger Task Force out of Milwaukee. This year, Brewer Fanatic is joining their commendable effort, and ask that you do the same! This holiday season, Milwaukee's Tailgate and Reporting as Eligible are thrilled to be hosting another virtual food drive on behalf of Hunger Task Force in Milwaukee. This can be an especially challenging season, and this year in particular has been tough for so many. We know that not everyone is in a position to help out on something like this and that there is a lot of competition for your money, but we hope you'll consider giving what you can to this very worthy organization. As with our last couple of drives, we will once again be raffling off a chance to win a pair of tickets as a little added incentive to give. The tickets are for the Packers' last home game of the season against the Baltimore Ravens on either December 27th or 28th. They are in section 118, row 17, between the 35th and 40th yard line, right behind the Packers bench. As you can see for yourself in the attached photo, the view from these seats is spectacular. In order to give and be eligible to win, all you need to do is click here to donate money directly to Hunger Task Force. You will receive one entry for every $20 increment donated, and all you need to do to enter the raffle is email your receipt of donation to us at Milwaukees.tailgate@gmail.com, and we'll take care of the rest. Entry for the raffle will stay open through 5 PM CST on Monday, December 22nd. We will once again be conducting the raffle itself live online, and details for how you can join that video will also be posted here as the date approaches. We'll do the drawing at 6 PM that evening and notify the winner immediately. Thank you in advance for your generosity. You've come through in a big way every time we've done one of these, and we're hoping for an all-time high level of support this time through! Click To Help The Hungry View the full article

Ten of the 30 teams who make up MLB have a full 40-man roster. Eight more have 39 players on that reserve list, and six more have 38. The other six teams break down as follows: Yankees, Padres, 36; Phillies, Rangers, Angels, 35; Cubs, 31. Chicago not only has fewer players on their big-league roster than any of their 29 competitors, but four fewer than the trio of teams who would otherwise represent the extreme low end of the distribution. Having that many vacancies provides lots of flexibility, but it also stands as a reminder of how much work lies ahead of Jed Hoyer this winter. The circumstance is a result of the team having lost a startling number of players to free agency—Kyle Tucker, Willi Castro, Justin Turner, Carlos Santana, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Brad Keller, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale and Reese McGuire all finished the season with the team but were eligible for free agency after the World Series or (in McGuire's case) were non-tendered last month. However, it's also a result of the team's failure to build a deep farm system. Chicago left several players off their 40-man roster when the deadline came to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, but when that draft happened Wednesday, they didn't lose any of the guys in question. Even some of the players who are currently on the roster (James Triantos, Pedro Ramirez, Riley Martin, Luke Little, Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, Jack Neely) are fringe pieces with little immediate value to the parent club, and a few more (Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara) either haven't yet gotten a chance to prove themselves or have seemed not to have the full confidence of the organization. Where there should be robust reserves of homegrown talent to reinforce the roster, right now, there are blank spaces. Again, that has its upsides. The Cubs signed right-handed reliever Collin Snider to a minor-league deal Wednesday. Snider, 30, is a funky, low-slot hurler who could become the 2026 answer to Tyson Miller in the Chicago pen. They were in good position to land him on such a deal, because with all that open space, Snider can reasonably expect that there will be a 40-man spot for him to win if he shows well during spring training. The Cubs can also take on players on a trade partner's 40-man roster, if needed, without needing to shuffle as much or remove players from their own roster the way other teams might. Generally, though, the Cubs have let the opportunities afforded by keeping a skeleton crew in November and December drift by. They didn't trade for any prospects who needed to be added to overstuffed 40-man rosters last month, or snap up anyone who stood to be non-tendered because of another club's roster crunch. They also, downright stunningly, didn't take anyone in Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft. They're actively choosing to hold open so many roster spots that it's conspicuous, despite having a very limited set of non-roster players with any real upside for 2026. In other words, the team is setting itself up for a spending spree in free agency—but also leaving themselves no other choice. Though the internal preference of the front office is to add top-flight pitching via trade, rather than via free agency, any deal that would net them the caliber of player they're looking for would have to include one of Matt Shaw, Ballesteros, Caissie, or Alcántara. They've talked to other teams about various deals that would send out Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, or Ben Brown. By not snatching up players via waiver claims, trades or the Rule 5, Hoyer and company have eschewed chances to chart a more balanced course through the offseason. At this point, the Cubs will almost surely sign at least four more players to big-league deals this winter. That's good news, and so is the underlying reason why they're doing this: they have set high goals for the player types they hope will fill those slots. The team is pursuing above-average starting pitchers, high-leverage reliever candidates, and top-tier bats. They've been active in trade talks regarding MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera, and they've talked to Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. They've extensively scouted Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, and talked to the representatives for all three. They're hunting serious, impactful talent. The risk, however, is obvious. Those nine open places on the roster speak to the thinness of the organization and the difficulty the team will have in maintaining leverage, should any more of their top targets come off the board before they begin to flesh themselves out. This is a highwire act of a hot stove strategy. Hoyer will be active; there will be headline-grabbing moves. However, the Cubs have cornered themselves a bit, and getting better will be an expensive endeavor because of the more cost-effective opportunities they've chosen not to pursue. View the full article

Katie Woo and Fabian A, writing for The Athletic, reported that the Royals are interested in slugging Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Interested in learning more about Hernandez? Read our in-depth write-up on him as a trade candidate. Before the 2024 season, Hernandez signed a one-year, $23.5 million contract with Los Angeles. After the season, he declined the club’s qualifying offer and became a free agent. In early January 2025, he rejoined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66 million contract that runs through 2027, with a $15 million club option for 2028. In 2024, with the Dodgers, he appeared in 154 games and logged 652 plate appearances, hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs. In 2025, he played 134 games and collected 546 plate appearances, hitting .247/.284/.454 with 25 home runs, a 4.8 percent walk rate, a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, an .207 isolated power, and a .315 wOBA with a 102 wRC+. View the full article

With the Winter Meetings out of the way, there will be lots of opportunities for baseball matchmaking to occur. With Carlos Correa long out the door, the Minnesota Twins could turn their attention to another shortstop on the trade market to bolster their current infield core. Rumors around the Washington Nationals have been heavy, and many of those rumblings have centered on the club's current shortstop, CJ Abrams. Abrams is a player who could help the Twins achieve their short- and long-term roster goals. As it stands, the Twins are short on major-league experience at each of their infield positions. Abrams debuted in 2022 and since then, he's played in the majority of three major-league seasons. While Abrams would have the most experience under his belt of anyone currently in Minnesota if he joined the Twins roster, he is also only 25 years old; is hitting his first year of arbitration; and very well could grow with the other young players in the Twins system. Abrams is coming off his best season of offensive production, wherein he hit .257/.315/.433 and launched 19 home runs. Twins shortstops, meanwhile, hit .251/.307/.380 and managed just 17 home runs. Abrams would be able to provide improved offensive production at a prime defensive position. Whoever acquires Abrams would hope his growth and increased production continue—although they'll also need to reckon with the need to move him off shortstop. Abrams also fits the mold of “younger and faster,” if the Twins want to continue leaning into the increased baserunning aggressiveness they displayed toward the end of 2025. In the past three seasons, Abrams has stolen 47, 31, and 31 bases. Adding him would bring a well-established base-stealing threat to the Twins roster. Statcast tracked Abrams at 28.2 ft/s in sprint speed, and he was worth 7 baserunning runs, according to Baseball Savant. Defense is the bugaboo. Abrams has not been a good defender at the shortstop position, no matter the metric you look at. He produced -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -9 Outs Above Average this past season. The OAA metric was actually an improvement over a -14 in 2024. Shortstop wouldn’t have to be Abrams's position with the Twins, though, as Brooks Lee could continue to be penciled in at that spot. Lee turned in -1 OAA with an extended run after the Correa trade. If defense is a priority, moving Abrams to third (or second) is a real possibility. Regardless of the position Abrams would fill with the Twins, adding him would create a logjam in the infield, unless one of those current infielders is part of the package that fetches the young shortstop. While the Derek Shelton hire has seemed positive for Royce Lewis, the mercurial infielder has not been shy about expressing his displeasure with the direction of the clubhouse in the past. Overall, Lewis’s production has only trended downward since he entered the league. He did rebound in the second half of the season and posted a .723 OPS, giving some optimism for 2026. A trade for Abrams could provide a perfect opportunity to give Lewis a change of scenery and truly revitalize his career. It also points to the sort of "MLB player-for-MLB player" trade that Derek Falvey mentioned is more likely this time of year—not unlike Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. If they trade Abrams, the Nationals will certainly want to reload their own lineup, and Lewis would give them someone who has produced in the majors and is still on the front end of his career. The Twins could then play Lee and Abrams on the left side of the infield. Willy Adames was also traded when he was 25. The then-Ray was traded (along with relief pitcher Trevor Richards) to the Brewers for pitchers J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. With that as a deal to compare potential value in an Abrams deal, and the reality that there may be some legitimate competition for Abrams, the Twins would need to kick a significant prospect into the deal in addition to Lewis. The Twins do have enough prospects to get the deal done while keeping Lewis, if they choose to go that route. If they did so, they would just need to get creative with the infield. Luke Keaschall would be able to shift to first base or even be a right-handed option for the outfield. It doesn’t create the most straightforward path to opportunities for each player and their development, but it could be accomplished. A challenge-plus trade makes the most sense, though. Washington could roll the dice on Lewis, while the Twins get better immediately and leverage their strong farm system to make the upgrade from Lewis to Abrams. The Twins need to give their lineup a shot in the arm, and a young, dynamic player like Abrams could provide that. Best-case, the Twins catch a player (like the Brewers did with Adames) hitting the prime of his career. Carlos Correa's signing(s) didn't quite deliver the high-impact, prime-aged infield dynamism the team expected. This kind of trade could do so. View the full article

While a need for starting pitching will grab headlines, we shouldn't forget that there is more work to do for A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres this offseason. Among their quieter needs this winter is the one that exists behind the plate. As things stand right now, Freddy Fermin will be the team's starting catcher in 2026. There isn't any reason to expect a change there, either. The team sent Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline. Given that both would be worthwhile depth arms in this rotation right now, the intent was always for Fermin to handle the top gig ahead of next season. Given the current roster construction, Luis Campusano will handle No. 2 duties. The team had been reluctant to give him much of a run due to some inefficiencies in working as a defensive catcher despite the upside he presents with the bat. Now out of options, the team has been forced into a scenario where they either give him run or look to move him. With top prospect Ethan Salas still a ways away, the backup spot is Campusano's to lose. Either way, the current duo looks to be an upgrade over the two the team started with last year when they brought Elías Díaz back on a one-year deal and signed Martín Maldonado to a non-guaranteed contract ahead of spring training. Neither provided much of anything on offense and each demonstrated various shortcomings defensively that negatively impacted the pitching staff. But even with a more formidable pair, there are some options that could allow the Padres to not only shore up their depth behind the plate but upgrade the roster depth, too. Names certainly abound, at least. Someone like Reese McGuire is a logical player that fits in here. McGuire turned in a strong framing season for the Chicago Cubs last year (3 Framing Runs) while providing steady power for a backup catcher (.218 ISO). Former Minnesota Twin Christian Vázquez doesn't give you that same pop, but has historically graded as a capable defensive backstop (2 Framing Runs in 2025). A name like Danny Jansen pops on the other side of the spectrum. His defensive output has taken a step back in recent years, but there's some decent offensive upside still within the context of that type of role. Even someone like Jonah Heim has a decent-enough track record (107 wRC+ in 2023) that you could pursue him for a one-year bounce back. Options aren't limited to the free-agent market, either. Escondido native Korey Lee is third on the Chicago White Sox's depth chart behind a pair of young catchers that the team is clearly prioritizing. The St. Louis Cardinals have a handful of options in something of a logjam they could seek to clear (Pedro Pagés, Yohel Pozo, Jimmy Crooks) in favor of even more depth within their minor-league system. The point is that there are options here for the San Diego Padres. Not that they're alone in such a pursuit, but when you're operating within a tight budget without much to trade in the way of prospects, you like that this type of volume exists, epecially considering the way it could impact the roster outside of the position. Let's say the Padres really are hesitant to give even backup reps to Campusano behind the plate. Rather than shoehorn him into a role for which he may not be well-suited, you bring in a new No. 2 catcher. From there, Campusano becomes more of a right-handed compliment as a designated hitter or first baseman for Gavin Sheets. He becomes the matchup play in a way that allows you to maximize his most important asset: the bat. It's a path toward the Padres improving their roster in a way that a team short on resources can actually pull off. At the very least, you want a veteran third-stringer in the organization so that you have that coverage. Even if Campusano is capable of holding down the spot behind Fermin, you're in a bad way should anything happen to them on the health front. So, even if it's a move made purely out of a depth pursuit rather than one that indicates a shifting role for Campusano, it's a necessary one for the Padres. Luckily, that volume exists. It doesn't have to be the priority at this point in the offseason. But it's not something we should overlook as the winter wears on. View the full article

Owen and Jessie examine the MLB Winter Meetings, which saw some star players move off the board, but the Blue Jays sat out most of the action this year, signing only reliever Cody Ponce to a three-year deal. But several rumors emerged out of the meetings, and the Jays are still looking to add. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

The much-anticipated MLB Draft Lottery has come and gone. The Twins did not get the best-case scenario: they moved down one spot and were given the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. While not ideal, 3rd is still not a terrible place for the Twins to pick in next year's draft, and draft experts Jamie Cameron and Jeremy Nygaard explain why. View the full article

David Popkins’ 2024 season in Minnesota ended with a thud, but his work in 2025 has now earned him one of baseball’s most notable coaching honors. Baseball America named Popkins its MLB Coach of the Year, highlighting a philosophy that has resonated across one of the league’s most improved offenses. For a coach who was dismissed after Minnesota’s late-season collapse, the honor marks a dramatic reversal in how his skill set is viewed across the sport. Baseball America emphasized that Popkins’ entire approach revolves around problem-solving. He believes that every hitter presents a unique puzzle. By identifying the underlying issue and drawing on a wide range of systems and instructors, he can craft individualized solutions. The publication credited this method with laying the foundation for Toronto’s offensive revival, noting that many players described his teaching style as both modern and deeply adaptable. The Twins did not get to see that evolution firsthand. Popkins was one of four coaches dismissed following Minnesota’s disappointing finish in 2024. This group also included assistant hitting coaches Derek Shomon and Rudy Hernandez, as well as assistant bench and infield coach Tony Diaz. General manager Thad Levine was also let go in the same sweep. According to reporting from The Athletic, Popkins even held early-season discussions about a contract extension, but the talks never progressed. When the offense unraveled down the stretch of an injury-riddled season, he was left as one of the clearest scapegoats. What happened next showed how highly the rest of the league regarded him. Popkins received calls from three teams within hours of his dismissal, and the Toronto Blue Jays moved quickly to bring him aboard. The fit proved immediate and impactful. His communication style meshed well with a clubhouse seeking a new direction after its own disappointing offensive year. Under his guidance, veterans and young players alike found renewed confidence. George Springer became the most prominent example. At 35 and coming off a decline in production, Springer looked rejuvenated with Popkins’ help, finishing the year with a 161 OPS+. Toronto finished the regular season third in baseball in OPS, fourth in runs scored, and fifth in xwOBA. The turnaround pushed the Blue Jays all the way to the brink of their first World Series title since 1993. Players and team officials repeatedly pointed to Popkins’ influence as a key reason for their sustained improvement. For the Twins, the award serves as a reminder of what might have been. For Popkins, it is proof that his approach works when given trust and time. His journey from early-season extension talks to post-collapse dismissal to industry-wide acclaim in just over a year is one of the more remarkable coaching arcs in recent memory. View the full article

For those of you who haven’t heard of it before, ZiPS is a fun projection system that Dan Szymborski, senior writer at FanGraphs, built to predict how teams and players will do in the upcoming year. It has been around for more than 20 years, and Szymborski's write-ups of the results have become an annual tradition. If you’re curious about the origin of ZiPS and how it works, check out his introduction for this year’s set of predictions. Szymborski released his projections for the Brewers a few days ago, and as always, it’s quite comprehensive. It’s easy to get lost in the sea of numbers, and for those who don't have time to dive deep, I wanted to point out some of the highlights. First, it’s important to acknowledge that it is difficult to predict the future. While ZiPS has been remarkably accurate in the long run and over large samples, it’s not perfect. The system is based on data, so it’s not pure guesswork, but anomalous teams like the Brewers tend to exceed expectations quite a bit. That’s why Milwaukee was estimated to win just 86-90 games in 2025, but actually won 97. Secondly, the Brewers are especially frustrating because ZiPS depends heavily on estimating how much certain individuals play and Milwaukee almost always deploys unexpected players to great effect. Szymborski says as much in his most recent write-up: This year, ZiPS is slightly more optimistic about next season, projecting the Brewers to win between 86 and 94 games. That's a solid start, but Szymborski also notes that their team floor is incredibly high. They may not reach the same heights as they did this season, but they're certainly the favorites to win the NL Central again. However, there are some question marks—the biggest, perhaps, being Andrew Vaughn. By now, we’re all aware of the sudden transformation from draft bust to unstoppable power hitter Vaughn achieved after being acquired by Milwaukee, but it remains to be seen whether that was a fluke or real change. ZiPS thinks it’s the former, projecting him to slash .244/.305/.413 over 577 plate appearances for a lackluster 99 OPS+. The projection system loves the other eight starters in the lineup, projecting them to be worth 2-3 WAR each. (Note: ZiPS uses its own WAR metric, sometimes referred to as zWAR. This is different from the more common rWAR and fWAR metrics.) Interestingly, despite making massive offensive strides this year and posting a 121 OPS+ for the season, Brice Turang is projected to regress back to a 99 OPS+. In defense of the system, Turang's first two years are still a drag on his career numbers, such that he only has a 93 OPS+ as a big-leaguer. ZiPS is also confident that Joey Ortiz is much better than the 66 OPS+ he posted last season. Ortiz is projected to return to form and post a 90 OPS+, still below average, but a big step forward—and a solid mark for a shortstop. The system has also turned a corner on Caleb Durbin. In 2025, Durbin was projected to post a 90 OPS+ while being slightly below average on defense. In 2026, he’s now expected to post a 99 OPS+, while being an above-average defender. Further down the depth chart, the projection system is extremely bullish on both Jesús Made and Cooper Pratt being ready for the majors very soon. Made already has the reputation of a top prospect in all of baseball, but Pratt’s 2025 season didn’t quite live up to the hype. He posted a .691 OPS over 527 plate appearances with Double-A Biloxi, but ZiPS remains optimistic about his future contributions to the team. When it comes to the team’s pitching, the projection system agrees with what many have been saying, which is that in the absence of one or two dominant starters, the Brewers have created a group of eight pitchers who could slot into the rotation without too much issue. ZiPS expects Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Tobias Myers to be the sixth, seventh, and eighth options, respectively. This falls in line with how they were used throughout 2025. The Brewers are also projected to have an elite bullpen ERA. Trevor Megill had the best projected FIP of any reliever at just 3.21, but in the event that he’s traded this offseason, Abner Uribe is a very close second with a projected FIP of 3.33 and a slightly better ERA+ of 134 (to Megill’s 132). As usual, it’s clear that Milwaukee’s strength is being more well-rounded than a perfect snowball. In a day and age wherein it seems like baseball wins are bought more than they are earned, the Brewers continue to be an example of how to be successful on a relatively shoestring budget. They’re so cutting-edge that even projection systems have a hard time fairly evaluating them. Despite humanity’s best efforts to predict the future, time remains the ultimate deciding factor. It would be shocking if the Brewers failed to meet their expectations; it’s more likely that they’ll exceed them. However, injuries happen, and baseball is rife with chaos and entropy. We’ll just have to see how the cookies crumble. In the meantime, we can only hope the organization does what it needs to build an even stronger roster. View the full article

I want the 2026 Chicago Cubs pitching staff to become "King of the Pop-Up". I admit, it sounds a little less sexy than becoming "King of the Strikeouts" (or for any Tim Robinson fans out there, Rog, the "King of the Slams") and frankly, a pop-up is just less exciting. There is a reason that, in the movie Major League in the penultimate scene, Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn gets Clu Heywood to strike out on a 99-mph fastball instead of inducing a weak can-of-corn to the first baseman; it'd be hard for audiences to go crazy about that. And yet, I'm here to tell you that, in a baseball-sense, it would have made no difference, and that getting a "Texas Leaguer" is basically the same as a powerful punchout. First, we should look just how devastating a pop-up actually is. Using MLB's Baseball Savant, there were 8,716 balls-in-play during the 2025 season that were classified as pop-ups fielded by an infielder. Of those 8,716 pop-ups, just 71 landed for a hit. What this means is that if you hit a pop-up on the in-field, it is the most guaranteed form of out one can imagine, at least from balls put in play. It may not look devastating — a baseball flying just 50 feet in distance, landing safely in the second baseman's webbed glove is kind of boring in real time — but in terms of getting an out? It's absolutely devious. Now, I can already hear the counterargument, "but a player can make an error." So, I'm going to push my (non-existent) glasses up on my nose and give you my best "uhm, actually" to point out this: There were only 20 errors in the league on those 8,716 balls in play. This means just 91 hitters found any way to reach base on an infield pop-up last season. This gives teams a 99% chance of recording an out on a pop-up — it's a near-guarantee. As I said: it's truly a fatal to a hitter. Further comparing it to a strikeout, lest us not forget about dumbest of all rules: the dreaded dropped-third-strike. That rule proves that not even a strikeout is immune to a player getting on base. In an article by Sam Miller, he outlines how many dropped-third-strikes happen on a year-to-year-basis; a strikeout is not a guaranteed out either, and by July of 2025, there were already 29 instances of a player reaching first on a K. In 2024, this number was 50, which is not many more than the pop-up. It's true, that there are far more instances of strikeouts, but in total, hitting a pop-up is just shy of a guaranteed out in a very similar way the strikeout is. Enter the Chicago Cubs. In 2025, the Cubs were second in baseball (behind the Minnesota Twins), inducing 345 infield pop-ups on the season. This included the seventh-best pop-up inducer in Matthew Boyd, the 13th-best in Shota Imanaga, the 19th-best in Colin Rea, and the 29th-best in Jameson Taillon. You'll note that two of these three were new additions to the team, and Taillon worked extensively on his pitch repertoire last year. The Cubs, as a team, use cutting motions on their fastballs, almost more than any other organization, which likely leads to the extensive pop-up heavy approach; they just have that added movement which misses barrels. The Cubs should improve on their pop-up-generation in 2026 simply by having their stalwart, Justin Steele, healthy. The left-handed pitcher has been a very reliable pop-up getter, ranking 70th of 361 pitchers between 2022 and 2024. While Steele may not be the master of his craft as much as Matthew Boyd of Shota Imanaga are, he uses a cut-ride fastball that is useful in this area. Why are pop-ups important? Well, our advanced metrics don't take them into account currently. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which has become the basis of a lot of our advanced data on pitching, does not take batted ball data (such as pop-ups or ground balls) into it's equation, focusing heavily on strikeouts, walks and home runs. As FIP has become more popular, "FIP-beater" profiles, or pitchers who routinely post lower ERAs than their FIPs would suggest them capable of, have become an undervalued property at times. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of a FIP-beater; someone who threw a slew of strikes, generated abundant groundballs, and didn't walk hitters proved that this combination was effective here. Guys who induce a lot of pop-ups just may be the next "FIP-beater" out there. Last year, the Cubs were one of the biggest "FIP-beaters" as a team in the league, finishing ninth in baseball with a 3.81 ERA but just 20th (4.16) in FIP and 18th (4.16) in xFIP. Part of this is that the Cubs have a great defense, ranking among the top three in almost any category you can think of. But the team is just 25th in ground-ball rate, and this is generally a part of the "FIP-beater" profile. How do they achieve this? Well, in part, due to their innate ability to get hitters to get under the ball and hit weak pop flies. Getting even more Texas Leaguers is a way the Cubs can close the strikeout gap they currently face. Last year, the Cubs ranked just 27th in total strikeouts (1,271) and 21st in strikeout rate. Compare that to, say, the Yankees, who were fourth in total strikeouts (1,440) and seventh in K%. When we include the near-guaranteed out of a popup into the "easy out" equation, the Cubs close the gap from a difference of 281 to 205 — a healthy reduction. This isn't to say the Cubs don't still need to find swing-and-miss, but finding more pop-outs can also help to close the gap in terms of "guaranteed outs". This may be a way to figure out which pitchers on the current market appeal to the team. Michael King, in his healthy 2024 campaign, induced the 25th most pop-ups in baseball. He's been routinely connected to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, and while it's unlikely that the primary reason is his ability to generate pop-ups, that almost assuredly appeals to the team. Another starting pitcher who induces a lot of pop-ups? The Minnesota Twins' Joe Ryan, who is rumored to be among those who could be traded this offseason. Using the same properties, relievers Kenley Jansen and Ryne Stanek (of whom we reported recently that the Cubs do have interest in) have history of creating a lot of pop-ups and could interest the team. Caleb Thielbar as well could be a candidate for a reunion, based on his history with the team and his history with the pop-out. This obviously won't be the only factor a team like the Cubs will taken into account, but as we look for under-the-radar pickups, it's clear that this can matter in player evaluation. Ultimately, the pop-out is a boring version of an out; a hitter meekly hits a ball in the air a relatively short-distance and a defender camps out under it and catches it with ease. It doesn't have the same panache as an overbearing 99-mph heater, and a defensive player isn't tasked with doing some amazing. It's a play that literally results in an out at the major-league level 99% of the time, but one we generally have ignored as a viable way of limiting base runners. The Cubs cannot just get pop-outs, but they can look to add more of them coupled with swing-and-miss options. For a team who has a bunch of pitching to add, finding a few cheap pop-out getters is a way the team can continue to defeat its FIP reliably. What do you think of the pop-out? Do you think more teams need to embrace it as a legitimate way to get outs? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article

I want the 2026 Chicago Cubs pitching staff to become "King of the Pop-Up". I admit, it sounds a little less sexy than becoming "King of the Strikeouts" (or for any Tim Robinson fans out there, Rog, the "King of the Slams") and frankly, a pop-up is just less exciting. There is a reason that, in the movie Major League in the penultimate scene, Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn gets Clu Heywood to strike out on a 99-mph fastball instead of inducing a weak can-of-corn to the first baseman; it'd be hard for audiences to go crazy about that. And yet, I'm here to tell you that, in a baseball-sense, it would have made no difference, and that getting a "Texas Leaguer" is basically the same as a powerful punchout. First, we should look just how devastating a pop-up actually is. Using MLB's Baseball Savant, there were 8,716 balls-in-play during the 2025 season that were classified as pop-ups fielded by an infielder. Of those 8,716 pop-ups, just 71 landed for a hit. What this means is that if you hit a pop-up on the in-field, it is the most guaranteed form of out one can imagine, at least from balls put in play. It may not look devastating — a baseball flying just 50 feet in distance, landing safely in the second baseman's webbed glove is kind of boring in real time — but in terms of getting an out? It's absolutely devious. Now, I can already hear the counterargument, "but a player can make an error." So, I'm going to push my (non-existent) glasses up on my nose and give you my best "uhm, actually" to point out this: There were only 20 errors in the league on those 8,716 balls in play. This means just 91 hitters found any way to reach base on an infield pop-up last season. This gives teams a 99% chance of recording an out on a pop-up — it's a near-guarantee. As I said: it's truly a fatal to a hitter. Further comparing it to a strikeout, lest us not forget about dumbest of all rules: the dreaded dropped-third-strike. That rule proves that not even a strikeout is immune to a player getting on base. In an article by Sam Miller, he outlines how many dropped-third-strikes happen on a year-to-year-basis; a strikeout is not a guaranteed out either, and by July of 2025, there were already 29 instances of a player reaching first on a K. In 2024, this number was 50, which is not many more than the pop-up. It's true, that there are far more instances of strikeouts, but in total, hitting a pop-up is just shy of a guaranteed out in a very similar way the strikeout is. Enter the Chicago Cubs. In 2025, the Cubs were second in baseball (behind the Minnesota Twins), inducing 345 infield pop-ups on the season. This included the seventh-best pop-up inducer in Matthew Boyd, the 13th-best in Shota Imanaga, the 19th-best in Colin Rea, and the 29th-best in Jameson Taillon. You'll note that two of these three were new additions to the team, and Taillon worked extensively on his pitch repertoire last year. The Cubs, as a team, use cutting motions on their fastballs, almost more than any other organization, which likely leads to the extensive pop-up heavy approach; they just have that added movement which misses barrels. The Cubs should improve on their pop-up-generation in 2026 simply by having their stalwart, Justin Steele, healthy. The left-handed pitcher has been a very reliable pop-up getter, ranking 70th of 361 pitchers between 2022 and 2024. While Steele may not be the master of his craft as much as Matthew Boyd of Shota Imanaga are, he uses a cut-ride fastball that is useful in this area. Why are pop-ups important? Well, our advanced metrics don't take them into account currently. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which has become the basis of a lot of our advanced data on pitching, does not take batted ball data (such as pop-ups or ground balls) into it's equation, focusing heavily on strikeouts, walks and home runs. As FIP has become more popular, "FIP-beater" profiles, or pitchers who routinely post lower ERAs than their FIPs would suggest them capable of, have become an undervalued property at times. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of a FIP-beater; someone who threw a slew of strikes, generated abundant groundballs, and didn't walk hitters proved that this combination was effective here. Guys who induce a lot of pop-ups just may be the next "FIP-beater" out there. Last year, the Cubs were one of the biggest "FIP-beaters" as a team in the league, finishing ninth in baseball with a 3.81 ERA but just 20th (4.16) in FIP and 18th (4.16) in xFIP. Part of this is that the Cubs have a great defense, ranking among the top three in almost any category you can think of. But the team is just 25th in ground-ball rate, and this is generally a part of the "FIP-beater" profile. How do they achieve this? Well, in part, due to their innate ability to get hitters to get under the ball and hit weak pop flies. Getting even more Texas Leaguers is a way the Cubs can close the strikeout gap they currently face. Last year, the Cubs ranked just 27th in total strikeouts (1,271) and 21st in strikeout rate. Compare that to, say, the Yankees, who were fourth in total strikeouts (1,440) and seventh in K%. When we include the near-guaranteed out of a popup into the "easy out" equation, the Cubs close the gap from a difference of 281 to 205 — a healthy reduction. This isn't to say the Cubs don't still need to find swing-and-miss, but finding more pop-outs can also help to close the gap in terms of "guaranteed outs". This may be a way to figure out which pitchers on the current market appeal to the team. Michael King, in his healthy 2024 campaign, induced the 25th most pop-ups in baseball. He's been routinely connected to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, and while it's unlikely that the primary reason is his ability to generate pop-ups, that almost assuredly appeals to the team. Another starting pitcher who induces a lot of pop-ups? The Minnesota Twins' Joe Ryan, who is rumored to be among those who could be traded this offseason. Using the same properties, relievers Kenley Jansen and Ryne Stanek (of whom we reported recently that the Cubs do have interest in) have history of creating a lot of pop-ups and could interest the team. Caleb Thielbar as well could be a candidate for a reunion, based on his history with the team and his history with the pop-out. This obviously won't be the only factor a team like the Cubs will taken into account, but as we look for under-the-radar pickups, it's clear that this can matter in player evaluation. Ultimately, the pop-out is a boring version of an out; a hitter meekly hits a ball in the air a relatively short-distance and a defender camps out under it and catches it with ease. It doesn't have the same panache as an overbearing 99-mph heater, and a defensive player isn't tasked with doing some amazing. It's a play that literally results in an out at the major-league level 99% of the time, but one we generally have ignored as a viable way of limiting base runners. The Cubs cannot just get pop-outs, but they can look to add more of them coupled with swing-and-miss options. For a team who has a bunch of pitching to add, finding a few cheap pop-out getters is a way the team can continue to defeat its FIP reliably. What do you think of the pop-out? Do you think more teams need to embrace it as a legitimate way to get outs? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article