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On Fish Unfiltered, Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout discuss how Christopher Morel potentially fits with the 2026 Marlins and why it'll be easier to grade the signing later this offseason.View the full article

As the days following the Winter Meetings unfolded, all indications pointed toward the Toronto Blue Jays following through on their desire to pick up a big-time free agent reliever. One by one, the chips had begun to fall, with Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams coming off the market before the epicenter of the baseball world shifted to Orlando. Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez followed earlier this week. The anticipation finally subsided north of the border on Friday with the news of submariner Tyler Rogers inking a three-year, $37 million deal. On Saturday afternoon, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal revealed the terms of a vesting option for 2029 that would pay Rogers an additional $12 million if he pitches either 110 combined games between 2027 and 2028 or 60 games in 2028. Since his debut in August 2019, Rogers has not pitched fewer than 68 games in a full season. He will be 38 by the time the 2029 season rolls around, so that vesting option is essentially the Blue Jays telling him he'll be rewarded with another year if he keeps doing what he's been doing by the time he's within striking distance of 40 years old. Buckle up: The jokes and fan activation opportunities that come from Rogers sharing a last name with his new team's ownership conglomerate are soon to rain down on all of us. They might be easy to stomach, though, because (Tyler) Rogers is a very good pitcher who immediately makes this bullpen stronger. He has a 2.76 ERA and 3.31 FIP for his career, easily better than Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Louis Varland, and any notable external addition the Shapiro/Atkins regime has made to the bullpen since the pandemic (with all due respect to those guys, who should form one of the better units in the league next year). At no point during this recent stretch of Blue Jays baseball has there been a relief pitcher with a track record as consistently good as Rogers'. He was working on his second consecutive season with a sub-3.00 ERA when he was traded from the Giants to the Mets this past deadline, and ended up finishing with a sub-2.00 ERA while leading the NL in appearances for the fourth time in six years. Now that we've established some of what Rogers is, I'm going to mention one key thing that he isn't, because it provides some crucial context that is necessary to make sense of this deal: He was not the Blue Jays' first choice in the free agent relief market. According to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, the team was actively courting Robert Suarez before he signed with Atlanta, and Rogers was their pivot in the event Suarez signed elsewhere. This news comes about a month after they reportedly met with Edwin Díaz's agents at the GM meetings in Las Vegas. With a strong crop of free agent bullpen arms this year, there are certainly more traditional "stuff-ists" that could prove to be more of a bargain than Rogers. For how disappointing the results were for Devin Williams in 2025, he still struck out 35% of batters and maintained elite peripherals, he is still just a year removed from being widely considered a top-two closer in the game, and he signed for a considerably cheaper commitment than Díaz. The Detroit Tigers transformed Kyle Finnegan post-deadline and retained him on a two-year deal worth less than $20 million total. Brad Keller, who only just turned 30, is still available after a dominant season in Chicago. Still, league-wide demand for high-leverage relievers is enough that every established name on the market has been getting multi-year deals, even the ones coming off down years. Rogers, like Suarez, will be 35 on opening day, and giving a three-year deal to a 35-year-old reliever isn't the best idea in a vacuum. However, I would much rather give him three years than Suarez, mostly because of something alluded to earlier: His durability. Rogers has not been on the injured list since 2015, and he leads relievers in both innings pitched and appearances over the past five years. Suarez also relies on elite velocity, sitting 98-99 mph on both his fastball and his sinker. This could become problematic if he continues to rely on both pitches a combined three-quarters of the time and loses some firepower on the wrong side of age 35. Rogers, a submarine pitcher who has maxed out in the mid-80s his whole career without any issues, does not have this concern. If there's any reliever from this free agent class I'd bet on at least staying in their current general neighbourhood of effectiveness by the end of their new contract, it's probably him. Much has been made of Rogers' -61° arm angle, which changes everything about how he should be valued because his pitches do not move at all like they are supposed to. He's a two-pitch, sinker-slider guy, using the former way more than the latter. The sinker averaged 84 mph last year; the slider 74 mph. Of course, this does not matter, because the sinker moves like a mid-80s 12-6 curveball while the slider rises with extreme cut, with both practically being released from the ground. He is truly one of a kind in this way. It's that bizarre delivery that has allowed him to become about as consistent as a reliever can be over the past few years. He absolutely pounds the zone, with a career walk rate of 4.4% that cratered even further recently, sitting at 2.2% since the start of 2024. Of all bullpen pitchers with at least 200 IP since the start of 2021, Rogers' average exit velocity against ranks second-lowest. His launch angle against is eighth-lowest. His barrel rate? Also second-lowest. Hard-hit rate? Sixth-lowest. Yet, he has surrendered 1,191 balls in play in that timespan, 199 more than Brent Suter, the next-closest guy on the list. That's the same as the difference between the pitchers ranked second and 15th. One of the reasons command and pitch-to-contact arms, especially if they're relievers, aren't valued as highly as they once were is that their approach leads to greater variability. More hittable pitches and more balls in play equals a greater risk of the opponent stringing hits together, doing damage, or both. For a half-decade, way longer than any other pitch-to-contact reliever in the game, Rogers has found a way to defy this law because of how hard his movement patterns are on hitters' eyes by virtue of his release point. It's entirely possible the standard of variance that non-strikeout arms sign up for simply doesn't apply to him to the same degree, and the infield defense he'll have behind him makes him an even more logical fit for the Blue Jays. Tyler Rogers Percentiles, 2023-25 Year BB% GB% AVG. EV Hard-Hit% Barrel% 2025 100 98 99 95 100 2024 100 93 99 95 93 2023 83 89 99 98 100 Data from Statcast This wholesale prevention of quality contact has allowed Rogers to maintain a lower-than-average rate of home runs per flyball for his entire career. The Blue Jays' relief corps hemorrhaged damage in 2024, and it still wasn't fully immune in that regard despite making it to the World Series this past year. The front office saw a chance to acquire someone who could fix a good chunk of that problem by himself and didn't pass it up. Blue Jays Bullpen & Tyler Rogers Home Run Rates, 2023-25 Year TOR Bullpen HR/9 TOR Bullpen HR/FB Rogers HR/9 Rogers HR/FB 2025 1.04 11.4% 0.47 9.1% 2024 1.46 14.8% 0.90 10.6% 2023 1.15 12.2% 0.85 9.7% Data from FanGraphs The effect his delivery has on batters seems counterintuitive because of how slow his pitches move, but he's arguably better at routinely inducing late swings than anyone in MLB. A common proxy to measure hitter timing is attack angle, one of Statcast's new bat path metrics that measures the vertical direction of the bat's sweet spot at contact (not to be confused with swing tilt). Hitters had a 0° attack angle against Rogers in 2025, the lowest among all pitchers to face at least 200 batters. They made contact deeper towards the plate against Rogers than they did anyone except Chris Martin and Tim Hill, and when adjusting contact point for velocity (slower pitches are naturally struck farther in front of the plate), opponents were later against Rogers than anyone who surrendered 100 balls in play. Aside from the immense degree to which it serves his own purposes, Rogers' alien release point also allows his coaches to mix and match the looks on their pitching staff. Arranging a bullpen with this in mind is a strategy popularized by the successful Rays and Brewers teams of the early 2020s – clubs that never spent on high-leverage relievers in free agency, but found a way to make it work by plugging holes with a diverse set of arm angles. Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reported earlier this month that the Jays are trying to follow this blueprint, which makes the recent acquisitions of Rogers and Chase Lee, as well as the use of a first-round pick on Trey Yesavage, quite intuitive. Blue Jays Pitchers by Arm Angle LHP Arm Angle RHP Arm Angle Eric Lauer 39° Trey Yesavage 63° Brendon Little 33° Dylan Cease 51° Mason Fluharty 33° Braydon Fisher 49° Cody Ponce 45°* Tommy Nance 42° Louis Varland 41° Shane Bieber 39° Jose Berrios 39° Jeff Hoffman 37° Kevin Gausman 37° Yimi García 27° Tyler Rogers -61° Data from Statcast No, Rogers does not provide the velocity and strikeout stuff the Blue Jays' bullpen was lacking to an extent, but the chances of a positive return on that $12.3 million average annual value seem likely. Toronto continues to pay pitchers for showing consistent availability, which makes it seem silly in hindsight that both the Cease and Rogers contracts weren't plainly visible from a mile away. Aggressively paying relievers left and right generally isn't good practice, considering how often and how long they suit up for, but big-picture, the Jays are doing a good job of straddling the line between the various bullpen-building strategies. Make no mistake, they have chosen to pounce on some free agents (Hoffman, García, Rogers), but some are reclamation projects (Nance, Lauer), while others are young, home-grown talent (Little, Fluharty, Fisher). It's good that the team still has money for its needs on the position player side now that the most pressing requirements on the pitching side are taken care of. Rogers may not have been the best option available, but he undeniably makes this team better and flashes considerable potential to make this a wise investment for the duration of his term, especially considering some of the other avenues the Jays could have pursued. View the full article

In most cases, players spend merely a "chapter" of their careers with the Marlins. It's hard for a franchise to retain quality contributors without the willingness to pay them market value nor the allure of winning on a consistent basis. Thankfully, there have been a few exceptions. I am defining the length of a player's tenure as starting with their first major league regular season appearance with the Marlins and ending on the day that they were officially acquired by another organization via trade or free agency. Time spent developing with minor league affiliates prior to debuting was ignored—otherwise, the likes of Isaac Galloway would be featured prominently, and that isn't the spirit of this exercise. Here are the players who had the distinction of being Marlins big leaguers for longer than anybody else. 8. Jeff Conine Marlins debut: April 5, 1993 First Marlins departure: November 20, 1997 Marlins return: August 31, 2003 Final Marlins departure: January 11, 2006 We begin with a complicated case because Conine had two separate stints as a Marlin. Put together, he played a total of six years, 11 months and 26 days with the Fish. Every player featured below exceeded seven calendar years. Conine was remarkably durable, which allowed him to accumulate 1,014 games played—that ranks second in franchise history. "Mr. Marlin" has remained involved with the Marlins for most of his post-playing life. He's currently a special advisor to principal owner Bruce Sherman. 7. Josh Johnson Marlins debut: September 10, 2005 Marlins departure: November 19, 2012 On the other hand, it doesn't feel like Johnson's tenure was especially long because a large chunk of it was spent on the injured list (it was known as the "disabled list" back then). He pitched the necessary innings to be a qualified MLB starter only three times, earning National League All-Star selections in two of those campaigns. Despite being frequently sidelined, JJ is the most productive pitcher that the Marlins have ever employed in terms of both bWAR (25.8) and fWAR (21.4). 6. Ricky Nolasco Marlins debut: April 5, 2006 Marlins departure: July 6, 2013 Ricky Nolasco was a statistical anomaly. No pitcher during MLB's modern era with a minimum of 1,500 career innings had more of an "unlucky" gap between their ERA and FIP. That gap was even more pronounced as a Marlin (4.44 ERA/3.80 FIP) than it was with the other clubs we later pitched for. Nolasco overcame a chronically inflated batting average on balls in play to become the all-time Marlins wins leader in 2012 and nobody has come close to catching him since then. 5. Álex González Marlins debut: August 25, 1998 Marlins departure: February 6, 2006 His individual numbers were unimpressive, but González provided the Marlins with seven-plus seasons of continuity at the shortstop position. One of his ugliest slumps as a hitter coincided with the 2003 postseason—González entered the World Series with a .100/.122/.150 slash line. The Marlins' patience was rewarded when he launched a walk-off home run to win Game 4. He also scored the go-ahead run in Florida's Game 6 clincher. 4. Sandy Alcantara Marlins debut: June 29, 2018 Alcantara is entering the final guaranteed year of his contract, which the Marlins astutely signed him to before his Cy Young campaign. He was made available to contending teams at the 2025 trade deadline, but reportedly at a steep price that none of them were willing to meet. As a result, he has become the longest-tenured Marlins pitcher ever. Alcantara will rise to second on this list if he remains with the Fish at the start of next year's spring training. 3. Giancarlo Stanton Marlins debut: June 8, 2010 Marlins departure: December 11, 2017 Stanton is the only player who has ever signed a "lifetime" contract with the Marlins. Just days after celebrating his 25th birthday, he received a record-breaking extension covering the next 13 years. However, new ownership took over three years later and their top priority was reducing payroll. Fresh off the greatest season of his career, Stanton was put on the trade block. He exercised his right to veto agreed-upon deals with several other teams before eventually landing with the New York Yankees. Although the relationship ended awkwardly and Stanton's tenure did not result in any team success, hopefully the Marlins will shower him with the affection he deserves once his career concludes. 2. Miguel Rojas Marlins debut: June 27, 2015 Marlins departure: January 11, 2023 What a journey. The acquisition of Rojas was an afterthought, but eventually, he emerged as the leader of the Marlins clubhouse. He was one of the only holdovers from the Jeffrey Loria era who was wholeheartedly embraced by Sherman's front office (his contract was extended twice). Alas, outside of South Florida, there won't be many fans associating Rojas with the Marlins moving forward. The first paragraph of his baseball epitaph will describe him as the perfect "glue guy" who helped the Los Angeles Dodgers to back-to-back championships. He'll be finishing his playing career with the Dodgers in 2026. 1. Luis Castillo Marlins debut: August 8, 1996 Marlins departure: December 2, 2005 Like Conine, Castillo has already been inducted into the Marlins Legends Hall of Fame. An excerpt from his plaque will suffice: "A three-time National League All-Star and three-time Gold Glove recipient (2003-05), the switch-hitting infielder also led the NL in stolen bases twice (2000 and 2002). The San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic, native played 10 seasons with the Marlins, and upon his induction, he ranked as the franchise leader in hits (1,273), at-bats (4,347), plate appearances (4,966), games played (1,128), singles (1,081), triples (42), walks (533), and stolen bases (281). View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays confirmed their signing of reliever Tyler Rogers this evening. As reported, the contract is a three-year pact with a vesting option for 2029. The right-hander will earn a guaranteed $37 million over the course of the deal, including a $1 million buyout on the $12 million vesting option. To make room for Rogers on the 40-man roster, the Blue Jays designated fellow reliever Justin Bruihl for assignment. The southpaw appeared in 15 games for Toronto this past season, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 13.2 innings. He struck out 18 but walked seven. Bruihl also gave up two runs (one earned) in his lone postseason appearance. Given his poor performance in 2025, this DFA hardly comes as a surprise. However, losing Bruihl would be a hit to Toronto's left-handed relief depth. If Bruihl passes through waivers, he will most likely elect free agency. If that happens, the Blue Jays could attempt to re-sign him on a minor league deal. Featured image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images. View the full article

Jeff Passan has reported the Red Sox have swapped right-handed Luis Perales for the Nationals' left-handed pitching prospect Jake Bennett. More to come. View the full article

Jeff Passan has reported the Red Sox have swapped right-handed Luis Perales for the Nationals' left-handed pitching prospect Jake Bennett. Bennett, 25, was ranked No. 10 in Washington’s farm system by MLB.com. Drafted in the second round (45th overall) in 2022 out of Oklahoma, he missed the entire 2024 season because of Tommy John surgery. In 2025, he worked across Single-A Fredericksburg, High-A Wilmington, and Double-A Harrisburg, totaling 75 1/3 innings with 64 strikeouts and 19 walks. He posted a 2.27 ERA in 19 games, including 18 starts overall. He led the Arizona Fall League in strikeouts after the minor-league season was complete. Perales, 22, was ranked fifth by Talk Sox in Boston’s farm system. Signed out of Venezuela on July 2, 2019, he spent most of 2024 between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. In May 2024, he had 32 strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings alone. Over 33 2/3 innings, he recorded 56 strikeouts and 12 walks. He reached Portland at age 21 and struck out 10 in 7 1/3 innings across two Double-A starts before being sidelined with an elbow injury. After missing most of 2025, he returned late in the season for three rehab outings, totaling 2 1/3 innings and four strikeouts. This is a very strange move, as you don't often see minor-league challenge trades. What do you think, Red Sox fans? View the full article

In the last 50 years, only one catcher has had at least 400 big-league plate appearances in their 20s with a materially worse OPS+ than Alex Jackson's career mark of 46. Twins fans needn't strain themselves to imagine such a player, though, for that one special case was Drew Butera (36 OPS+). That's the caliber of player the Twins acquired from the Orioles earlier this winter—one of the worst hitters in baseball history. That's a bit reductive, though. It ignores some important facts about Jackson, and it gives a bit too much credit to the past. Firstly, while Jackson has undeniably been a bust since being taken sixth overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, it hasn't been because he didn't develop as a defender, and it hasn't been because he lacked athleticism. He's an above-average framer and thrower, and he's shown plus power potential even en route to some of the ugliest stat lines in recent memory. He even runs well, especially for a catcher. Jackson is an elite rotational, explosive athlete; he just swings and misses too damn much to convert that capacity into production. Secondly, but more importantly, we live in the fastest-changing and least hidebound baseball environment the world has ever known. It's an age of technological evaluation and development, and in it, teams are not slaves to players' track records. What happens on the field still makes up the lion's share of a club's assessment of a player, to be sure, but 'what happens on the field' no longer needs to be messily summarized by an examination of the results. Teams can evaluate players' tools, skills, and approaches in ways that allow them to imagine a future even for a player with a truly moribund past. In Jackson, the Twins see at least some chance of a turnaround, despite his .153/.239/.288 career batting line and the fact that he'll turn 30 on Christmas. They have three key reasons for that hope: Jackson's bat speed increased from 74.4 miles per hour in 2024 to 76.1 this season. He got much more selective in 2025, swinging less at pitches outside the strike zone and improving his balance between patience and aggressiveness. He has an upper-tier throwing arm behind the plate and a Statcast Sprint Speed of 27.5 feet per second. Let's talk about the implications of each of those. The increase in bat speed took Jackson from plus to elite in swing speed, making him a more dangerous power hitter in 2025 than he'd ever been in the majors before. You can measure that by results (13 extra-base hits in 100 big-league plate appearances), but it's just as evident in markers of process. Jackson pulled the ball more often, especially in the air. He posted a 107-mph 90th-percentile exit velocity, up a full 5 miles per hour from 2024. His slugging average on contact shot up, from .543 to .721. Guys who swing faster than 76 mph on average don't all succeed, but they're practically all dangerous, and they tend to get lots of chances to figure things out—because swinging that fast gives one access to elite power. Of course, sheer bat speed matters little if one never comes into contact with the ball, and Jackson whiffs as much as just about any hitter in baseball. That's been his greatest limiting factor as a professional hitter, and it's not getting better, except in very limited ways. For instance, he whiffed on sliders much less often in 2025 (32% of swings, down from 43.1% and 46.2% in the previous two years), but whiffed more per swing, overall—nearly 40% of the time. That's why the changes he made to his approach this season were crucial. Taking Triple-A and big-league plate appearances together, Jackson swung at 39.6% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2023, 38.3% of them in 2024, and just 34.5% in 2025. He increased his SEAGER (a metric designed by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus to evaluate a hitter's selective aggressiveness, by assigning decision value to each swing/take decision based on pitch location and subtracting their share of bad takes among all pitches taken from their share of good decisions consisting of good takes) from 11.0 in 2023 to 17.0 in 2024 and 17.4 in 2025; an average SEAGER is roughly 12.5. For a player with extreme swing-and-miss issues, that ability to avoid an undue number of deep counts without getting oneself out by chasing everything is vital. In the past, he didn't do that well enough. In 2025, he was better at it. Now, though, Jackson is set to enter his 30s. Even good catchers usually aren't good in their 30s. Bad ones never, ever turn into good ones—not really. The guys who survive being execrable hitters in their 20s (Luke Maile, Jeff Mathis, Butera) are defensive specialists. You can admire the fact that Jackson swatted 13 extra-base hits in 100 big-league plate appearances in 2025, but that's in the past, now. The Twins' question, when weighing acquiring him, needed to be whether he could do something similar in 2026. To that end, it's important to know that Jackson averages 86.1 miles per hour on his throws to second base, the 12th-best figure among 84 catchers who qualified for Baseball Savant's leaderboard in 2025. It's important to know that he runs more like a left fielder than like a catcher. Jackson made adjustments to get more out of his swing last season, both by increasing its intensity and by more judiciously managing the zone. There's hope that he can make the most of that, because he also remains a plus athlete, capable of moving exceptionally well even among the cohort of big-league players. There is, actually, one relevant precedent for what Jackson and the Twins hope the catcher will be over the next few years: Christian Bethancourt. After being a highly touted young backstop in the first half of last decade, Bethancourt got a good number of opportunities in the first half of his 20s, from 2013-17. He was a disaster, batting .222/.252/.316. He crashed out of the majors and ended up playing the 2019 season in Korea. He didn't appear in a big-league game from 2018-21. However, Bethancourt also has an exceptional arm—so much so that he clawed his way back into the game at age 30 as a possible two-way player. He didn't end up making much of a run as a pitcher, but his athleticism and power shone through when he got back to the majors. From 2022-24, he batted .233/.264/.390 in the majors. That's still lousy, but it's a much bigger step forward than most bad-hitting catchers take when they reach that phase of their careers. Jackson was better than that in 2025. Could he carry that over for another few years? All the historical evidence says 'no'. In 2025 (and beyond), though, the historical evidence isn't the most salient information at hand. The Twins are looking for precedents and opportunities by studying bat speed, physical capacity, and approach to the game, rather than by studying statistics accumulated in past games. Jackson doesn't have star-level upside. On his own fundamentals, though, he does have a chance to be a viable big-league backstop—even if there's hardly anyone in baseball history on whose numbers to model that future for him. View the full article

Isaac Collins was a crucial reason why the Brewers survived the injuries suffered by Garrett Mitchell and Blake Perkins in the early part of 2025. In no small part, it's thanks to Collins that the Crew came away with their third consecutive division title and the top seed in the National League playoffs. The value he provided was huge, considering that he was plucked from the Rockies in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft two years earlier. Collins did that through his OBP skills, speed, and excellent, unorthodox defense in left field. He provided 2.1 wins above replacement and a 118 OPS+, according to Baseball Reference. Despite that performance. there still seems to be doubt about his ability to contribute, partially because he seemed to fade in September and October, and was often on the bench due to Jake Bauers being the hot hand. The Brewers appear to be skeptics, too. They traded Collins and reliever Nick Mears to Kansas City in exchange for lefty reliever Ángel Zerpa on December 13, gaining a 40-man roster spot, but the cost could be much higher than many Brewers fans (or even some team executives) think. The 2025 Brewers had one Achilles’ heel: They ran out of gas by the time of the National League Championship Series, largely due to injuries. If there was a team “need” going into the offseason, it was to assemble a bench that could give Brice Turang, Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick, and other players more rest during the regular season, while still maintaining above-average offensive performance. On a 26-man roster, the Brewers usually go with 13 position players and 13 pitchers. (By rule, they can't have more pitchers than that, but in practice, neither they nor any other team in the league spend much time rostering fewer, either.) With the designated hitter, nine position-player slots are spoken for in each day's starting lineup. The team will usually carry a backup catcher, which leaves three bench spots to fill. Collins would have been immensely valuable in one of those spots, due to one aspect of his game that didn’t get a ton of play due to the circumstances in 2025: his versatility. Through his minor-league career, Collins played all three outfield positions and saw time at second base and third base. While perhaps he would not be a regular starter on the Brewers in 2026, the versatility he displayed in the minors could have allowed him to give Frelick, Durbin, Turang, and even Jackson Chourio some in-season rest. Between a lighter schedule (but still four or five starts a week) and a full offseason to prepare with a specific big-league role in mind, Collins would likely have still performed close to his 2025 levels, and he would have also kept more talented players fresher during the playoffs. The Brewers don't really trust Collins on the dirt, and even in left field, his defense degraded late in 2025. Still, if pressed into flexible duty, he might have had significant roster utility, beyond his simple production. Come 2026, the Brewers may find themselves missing Isaac Collins a lot, no matter how well Ángel Zerpa turns out for them. Do you think Isaac Collins was too high a price to pay for Ángel Zerpa? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

Josh Bell is not the kind of signing that flips an organization on its head, but he is the kind that quietly reshapes how a lineup comes together. At 33, Bell arrives in Minnesota as a known quantity. He has been an above-average hitter for nearly a decade—durable to a fault, and consistently productive even when the overall package has not quite matched the star-level expectations once placed on his prospect profile. Bell has spent much of his career teasing something more. The power is real. The plate discipline is real. The problem has always been the ground balls. Despite that flaw, Bell has averaged better than 26 home runs per 162 games over the past seven season, and has shown an ability to carry an offense for weeks at a time when he gets hot. The Twins are betting that stability and experience can help lift a lineup that has too often relied on streaky young bats to do the heavy lifting. First Base Fit and Defensive Tradeoffs Bell figures to be the primary first baseman for new manager Derek Shelton, who briefly overlapped with Bell in Pittsburgh. The Twins' current internal options at first base are serviceable, but limited. Edouard Julien can handle the position in short spurts, but is stretched defensively. Kody Clemens brings versatility and pop, but profiles better as a part-time player. Neither option offers the middle-of-the-order presence that Bell provides. The downside is obvious. Bell is not a good defender. While he posted solid grades at first base in 2021 and 2022, the longer-term numbers are ugly. Over his past 1,551 innings in the field, Bell has been charged with -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average. He struggles with range and consistency, and his lack of speed shows when plays require lateral movement. Minnesota is scheduled to have a young infield around Bell, which could throw his defensive shortcomings into sharp relief. Royce Lewis saw improvements at third base last year, but he has previously struggled with throwing issues. Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall will form the team’s double-play duo, at least some of the time, but both are seen as below-average defenders. The Twins need someone at first who can help their young infield with scoops and errant throws. That reality likely pushes the Twins toward a flexible usage plan. Bell will play first base often, but the club can mitigate some of the defensive damage by rotating him through the designated hitter spot. That would also open occasional opportunities for Julien or Clemens to see time at first, keeping more bats in the lineup without asking Bell to shoulder the full defensive burden. The Designated Hitter Picture Like most teams, the Twins do not operate with a fixed designated hitter. That fluid approach becomes even more critical with Bell in the fold. Sliding him into the DH role on certain days helps the overall defense and keeps him fresh across what is typically a heavy workload. Bell has appeared in 91.5 percent of his team’s possible games since becoming a full-time regular, averaging better than 148 games per season. The DH situation also intersects with Trevor Larnach, whom the Twins retained through the arbitration process. Larnach remains a bat-first corner outfielder who can soak up DH at-bats, particularly against right-handed pitching. At the same time, he is one of the more logical trade candidates on the roster, if the Twins look to rebalance or address another need. With Bell in the mix, the Twins have more freedom to rotate players through the DH spot. That flexibility could keep Larnach involved, while also making him expendable. If Bell occupies first base on a given night, the DH can be used to rest a regular or to keep an extra left-handed bat in the lineup. If Bell is the DH, Julien or Clemens can slide to first, and the outfield alignment becomes easier to manage. How Bell Reshapes the Lineup Even with the defensive shortcomings, Bell adds a legitimate bat to the middle of Minnesota’s order. When he elevates the ball, he does so with authority. Statcast ranked his 96.4-mph average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls 25th among 251 qualified hitters. His isolated power of .507 on fly balls sits well above the league average, even if it falls short of elite territory. Bell’s long-standing issue has been his tendency to hit the ball on the ground. Last season’s 45.7% ground ball rate was actually the second-lowest of his career, trailing only the 44% mark from his 37-homer season in 2019. Even so, that number remains well above the league average. For a hitter with terrible speed for a big-leaguer, grounders sap value and suppress overall production. In the lineup, Bell slots neatly into the top half of the Twins’ batting order. Minnesota needs more right-handed pop, but Bell, a switch-hitter, had an OPS that was 252 points lower against lefties last season. His .804 OPS against righties should make him an everyday player when lefties aren’t on the mound. His presence eases pressure on talented but inconsistent hitters like Lewis, Lee, and Matt Wallner, while also providing insulation if Larnach remains with the club. If the Twins compete in 2025, it will be because in-house talents take meaningful steps forward. Bell, alone, does not change that equation. What he does offer is reliability. He has been at least an average bat in every full season of his career (outside of the shortened 2020 campaign). In a lineup searching for stability, that matters. If the season veers the other direction in a competitive AL Central, Bell’s durability and track record make him a sensible trade chip. In that sense, his signing fits the Twins' current reality. It raises the floor without closing doors, and it gives the lineup a clearer shape heading into spring. What does Bell bring to the Twins lineup? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Sweet Lou and Brock Beauchamp break down the Twins' signing of first baseman Josh Bell. He fills a need, though imperfectly, and shows just how much more work there is to do on the 2026 Twins. Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays failed to address their most significant need at the Winter Meetings. The bullpen was a liability down the stretch. Their relievers' collective ERA rose from 3.57 in the first half to 4.63 in the second half. This was due in part to an August in which their bullpen ERA rose to 4.76 and their walk rate skyrocketed to 14.2%. Closer Jeff Hoffman had his worst month since May, posting a 6.00 ERA and a 7.64 FIP and allowing a slugging percentage of .587. Three of his seven blown saves on the season came in August. Yariel Rodríguez, who was recently outrighted off the 40-man roster, saw his stellar first-half 2.47 ERA overshadowed by a 4.21 ERA in the second half. Brendon Little suffered the same trend when he couldn't repeat his 2.03 ERA from the first half, posting a 4.88 second-half ERA. Louis Varland faced a similar fate. After posting a 1.81 ERA while with the Minnesota Twins, he had a 4.82 ERA following the trade to Toronto. Reliever ERA is volatile, especially in such small samples. Still, all this inconsistency underscored the need for a high-leverage arm. However, Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley, and Devin Williams all signed before the Winter Meetings. There were rumors of the Blue Jays being linked to both Edwin Díaz and Robert Suarez, the top two relievers remaining on the free agent market when the meeting started, but Toronto struck out on both. Despite missing out on the top names on the market, the Blue Jays finally found their man to help in the late innings. They signed Tyler Rogers to a three-year, $37 million contract, with a fourth-year vesting option that would make it worth $48 million. It will be fun to watch Rogers pitch, as he is a submarine pitcher, which is rarely seen nowadays. Rogers spent seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants before he was traded at last season's deadline to the New York Mets. He has been stellar over his career, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 306:77 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a 3.31 FIP, and 154 holds over 424 innings. A welcome aspect of his game has been his ability to stay healthy. He has pitched at least 68 games in each of the last five seasons. The veteran will likely slide into a setup role, pitching in the seventh or eighth inning. He's better against right-handed batters thanks to his sinker-slider combo, with his slider breaking away from same-handed opponents. That being said, his low arm angle helps him fare well against batters on both sides of the plate, though his pitches are especially hard for right-handers to pick up on. Versus righties last season, Rogers had a 31:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allowed a .229 batting average. Against lefties, he produced a 17:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, although they still managed just a .230 batting average off him. The Blue Jays may have waited longer than fans would have wanted to improve their bullpen, but they hit a home run signing Rogers. His ability to stay healthy and deceive batters will make him a welcome addition in Toronto. View the full article

At this point, it seems like just a matter of time until the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals come to an agreement on a deal headlined by outfielder Jarren Duran. And the latest update on the saga, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Kansas City Royals are still interested in Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran … if they lower the asking price. Rosenthal goes on to say, "The Royals are under the impression Duran would cost them left-hander Cole Ragans, though the Red Sox view the initial talks as more informal and exploratory." The inclusion of Ragans seems to be what is holding up the two sides from coming to an agreement. While both players are controllable through 2028, Ragans is considerably cheaper and is at a more premium position. Additionally, Rosenthal shares that the Royals generally believe he is more valuable… a game one starter in a hypothetical postseason game. Our sister site, Royals Keep, shared potential matchups in a trade for Jarren Duran, Click here to read our in-depth piece on scenarios. Do you think the Red Sox should drop their asking price to move Duran? Or up the offer to ensure they land Ragans? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The San Diego Padres have clear areas of need to address this winter. They need additional power in their lineup. They need some additional depth on the bench. And above all, they need starting pitching. There's just one issue with a team like the Padres in possession of such obvious needs: they lack the resources to properly address them. Just about everywhere in the baseball world will tell you that the Padres currently sit at the bottom of any farm system ranking. That's regardless of publication. It's a standing wrought by A.J. Preller's years of aggression on the trade front, depleting not only the upper tier of prospects with which he can make notable trades but the depth as well. It's why we saw the type of trades we did at the deadline, when Preller had to send a high volume of prospects (six of them) to Baltimore in order to acquire Ryan O'Hearn and Ramón Laureano. Furthering the Padres' offseason issues is their uncertain financial future. We've known for the last handful of years that the organization was trying to rein in spending. But with ownership reportedly exploring a sale of the franchise, it stands to reason that it'll only get worse in the weeks ahead (despite the thought that they might hang around last year's figure). The compounding of those two ideas has led to very little optimism over the Padres properly addressing the apparent needs that they have on the current roster. Which is why Preller might have to get a little bit creative in doing so. Unfortunately for him, such creativity may mean depleting the roster's largest area of strength. No team in baseball was able to get as much out of their relief corps as the Padres in 2025. Their 7.6 collective fWAR paced all bullpens, along with their 3.06 collective ERA. Their 3.53 FIP trailed only Cleveland with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate that sat third among their comrades in relief. They were also a group adept at avoiding hard contact, with a Hard-Hit% that was behind only Cincinnati for the lowest in the sport (37.4 percent). And while the group lost closer Robert Suárez to free agency (via his opt-out), the fact that three or four names could handle ninth inning duty in his stead speaks to the depth of this group. Any of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada are capable of leverage innings. Jason Adam, too, once he returns from a ruptured quad. David Morgan showed that he's the next guy up for such a role, as well. That's five guys for essentially three innings of work. We're oversimplifying, of course, as matchups and injuries exist. But when you factor in Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez, and new Padre Daison Acosta, there's a certain level of volume that exists here. Who's to say that Ruben Niebla and the pitching infrastructure couldn't work their magic in developing additional leverage arms on top of the five already on the roster? Regardless of the intricacies of the roster itself — and the makeup of the fortunate position the Padres are in with respect to their bullpen setup — it stands to reason that Preller should utilize such volume in order to add to the starting rotation. If he does, it's not as if every one of the five leverage arms would be available. We have to imagine Mason Miller is out, despite recent reports suggesting otherwise. With plenty of ninth-inning experience already to his credit, he's the most obvious name to assume Suárez's role as the team's closer. Even without that experience, that the team just gave up their top prospect in July as part of the package to acquire him makes it even less likely. As the lone lefty of the group, Morejon is also likely to be around for 2026 as well. Left-handed pitchers with upper 90s fastballs don't grow on trees, and Morejon's 97.7 MPH average sat in the 94th percentile last year. While he doesn't deploy his fastball-slider combo in a way that generates strikeouts in the way one might expect, he was in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity against (85.9 MPH) and in the 99th in Hard-Hit% (30.7). He appears destined for eighth-inning work in 2026. David Morgan is still pre-arbitration. Given the Padres' financial circumstances, that flexibility against the payroll will prove important from a player that can give you leverage innings. To say nothing of how his limited experience (47 1/3 major-league innings) would lead to a smaller return that becomes more difficult to justify. Adam can likely be eliminated as a part of this discussion as well considering the severity of his injury. While he should be back on the mound in early 2026, the quad is likely to pin down his value on the trade market. Which leaves Jeremiah Estrada as the most apparent trade candidate should Preller pursue this avenue. Estrada is exactly the type of high-upside reliever teams want for the late innings. He offers a 94th-percentile fastball (97.9 MPH average) and 98th percentile strikeout stuff (35.5 K%) wrought by a combination of that fastball, a changeup-splitter hybrid, and a slider. He's not entirely skilled at limiting hard contact, but that becomes less of an issue when you're missing as many bats as he does. His .247 wOBA against in high leverage was also his best figure among all leverage situations. In San Diego, Estrada is likely slated for the seventh inning. For another club that doesn't have this type of depth, he could serve as a primary setup option in the eighth or even as a closer. For the Padres, a combination of Morgan and Adam then slide into seventh-inning duty while the collection of Matsui, Peralta, et al handle the middle innings. It's a trade that Preller can afford to make on paper. Especially if it allows the organization to address their lack of pitching on the starting side. Whether or not Preller will utilize someone like Estrada to address the need, however, remains to be seen. Pitching in any form is the most coveted element for any big league organization, and it's a tough sell to deal from it when you're a contending club. Even if the cupboard is this barren from a starting pitching standpoint. There's an argument to be made that the Padres could be an exception considering their volume and their infrastructure, but you'd have to receive a certified part of your rotation in the return. Even with Estrada's upside, there's no guarantee you're getting that back. It's a perilous situation to navigate, the absence of meaningful starting pitching. But perilous circumstances aren't terribly new to the Preller or the Padres. Should he make a move, it's easy to imagine Estrada's the guy throwing baseballs for a different team next year. But you can never be sure of anything with Preller. View the full article

While there are not many pitchers ranked within the top five of the 2026 MLB Draft Class right now, Jamie and Jeremy review those with high upside that could possibly be picked by the Twins third overall in the 2026 MLB Draft.View the full article

The Twins and slugger Josh Bell agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027, sources confirmed to Twins Daily Monday morning. The first report of the deal came from ESPN's Jeff Passan, on Twitter. Bell, 33, is a 10-year veteran. A switch-hitter, he can serve as both a first baseman and a DH for the offense-hungry Twins. Last season, Bell hit .237/.325/.417 for a moribund Nationals team, with 22 home runs in 533 plate appearances. He was a prized selection in the 2011 MLB Draft, but his career has been more peripatetic than expected. A hulking figure in the batter's box, he's nonetheless struggled to consistently generate high-level power. He's a fine (but not spectacular) defender at first base, but most of his value comes from his bat. Bell controls the strike zone well, makes more frequent contact than most hitters of his size and strength, and has the ability to hit the ball exceptionally hard. For most of his career, the limiting factor has been a tendency to hit too many ground balls. While Bell's raw numbers for 2025 might appear underwhelming, though, there was a material change this season. From each side of the plate, he increased his bat speed by roughly 2.5 miles per hour and moved his exceptionally deep contact point a bit farther in front of his frame. Those changes make it easier to project strong production from him in 2026, as long as he can maintain those gains for the Twins. View the full article

Despite having five starters penciled into the rotation for 2026, the Milwaukee Brewers could get creative with a newly acquired reliever. At the very least, it sounds like the fifth rotation spot could be up for grabs throughout spring training. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers could use recently acquired Angel Zerpa as a starter. In his article, Brewers president of baseball operations, Matt Arnold, was quoted as saying, "We have some scouts that think he can do it. He has done it in the past." Zerpa, recently acquired via a trade with the Kansas City Royals, progressed through the minor leagues primarily as a reliever, though in five seasons with the Royals only made eight starts. In 2025, Zerpa pitched 64 2/3 innings, posting a solid 3.86 FIP despite a low 13.1% K-BB rate, due to an elevated walk rate. As a southpaw, he's particularly effective against left-handed hitters who carried a .288 wOBA last season, whereas righties had a .360 wOBA. For more on Zerpa's arsenal and development, check out Jack Stern's dive into his repertoire. Zerpa, 26, just entered his first year of arbitration and is controllable through 2028. Do you think the Brewers should test him in the starting rotation or leave him in the bullpen? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

On December 8th, the Royals announced voting would open for the Royals Hall of Fame Class of 2026. This vote determines who will be inducted into the team's illustrious Hall of Fame, located at Kauffman Stadium. Last year, Alex Gordon became the latest member inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame. Gordon was the first player from the 2014-2015 squads to be voted in (manager Ned Yost was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2023). This year, there are nine players on the Hall of Fame ballot, including two former Royals who are on the ballot for the first time. Here are the players Royals fans can vote for this year: Lorenzo Cain, OF (first-time) Alcides Escobar, SS (first-time) Greg Holland, RHP Wade Davis, RHP Kelvin Herrera, RHP Billy Butler, DH/1B Carlos Beltran, OF Joakim Soria, RHP Yordano Ventura, RHP In this post, members of the Royals Keep staff, including myself, Philip Ruo, Kerry Flanagan, and Carter Lundberg, shared our ballots and why we made our selections. Fans can make their own selections at this link. For a Royals alumnus to be elected (or stay on the ballot), they have to accomplish the following criteria, which are listed on the Royals Hall of Fame ballot: Thus, let's take a look at our votes and our analysis for each player we voted for, organized by player and the number of votes they received from the Royals Keep staff. © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Lorenzo Cain, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Carlos Beltran, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Peter G. Aiken-Imagn Images Yordano Ventura, RHP (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Greg Holland, RHP (Three Votes) Kevin Philip Carter © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Joakim Soria, RHP (Two Votes) Kevin Kerry © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Alcides Escobar, SS (One Vote) Kerry View the full article

The Twins seem to be intent on trying to win in 2026 versus leaning further into a rebuild and kicking the competitive can down the road. There are good arguments against this course of action, but one of the best in its favor is the presence of Royce Lewis. The former #1 overall pick is 26 years old, in the heart of his prime window, and under team control for three more years. In the past he has looked like a worthy centerpiece for a championship-contending club. Not so much lately. But that ability is in there, and unlocking it again seems to be a guiding focus for the Twins. Making the managerial switch from Rocco Baldelli to his stylistically-similar former bench coach Derek Shelton was driven by a desire to bring in a fresh voice — for the team and, quite specifically I think, for Lewis. It's no coincidence that Shelton went out of his way to visit the third baseman in Texas shortly after being hired. Here, Shelton is taking a page straight out of his predecessor's playbook. When he was first hired back in 2018, Baldelli made personal trips to visit Miguel Sanó in the Dominican Republic and Byron Buxton in Georgia, seeking to build initial rapport with players that he knew would be instrumental to the team's (and thus his) success. At the time, circumstances were somewhat similar. The Twins were coming off a disappointing season, which was a nightmare for both of the ascending young stars and former top prospects. Buxton, 24, was besieged by injuries and played horribly when on the field (.383 OPS in 94 PA). Sanó, 25, struggled so much that he was demoted from the majors to Single-A in the middle of the season for a reset. Fans were questioning whether these highly-touted talents were the real deal. Great examples of the nonlinear path that baseball development often takes. The 2018 seasons of Sanó and Buxton are stark reminders of why no one should be giving up on Lewis after a tumultuous run in his mid-20s. In 2019, Baldelli's first venture as manager, both rebounded as key contributors in a 101-win campaign, and while Sanó has since fallen off, Buxton channeled that breakthrough into becoming a true upper-echelon big-leaguer. The Twins are surely hoping for something similar to transpire in the coming year. Lewis has the talent to help spearhead a turnaround. We've seen what he's capable of on the biggest stage. The front office seems to be doing everything in its power to placate him and rebuild his shattered confidence. Lewis complained in 2024 about highly-paid veterans being held to a different standard. One year later, Carlos Correa was gone. More recently Lewis has made comments about not feeling valued or important in the clubhouse. And now Baldelli is gone, replaced by a manager who made a point of immediately visiting Lewis with a message of support and belief. There will be other fresh voices in Lewis's ear as well. A new hitting coach in Keith Beauregard who's helped other stalling top prospects (e.g. Spencer Torkelson) get over the hump in Detroit. A new bench coach in Mark Hallberg who brings unique perspective from his fascinating background. And a familiar face on the coaching staff in Toby Gardenhire, who managed Lewis in the minors. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2026, rebooting Royce Lewis is priority number one. The roster, the coaching overhaul, and even the managerial hire all point to an organization betting that Lewis’s best version is still ahead of him, not behind. It's a bet they almost have to make, given his lack of trade value. Development is rarely linear, and the Twins have already lived through what a well-timed reset can unlock. Whether this approach ultimately works will define the next phase of the franchise, but one thing is clear: everything the Twins are doing right now flows through Royce Lewis. If he reawakens, so do they View the full article

As the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings came and went, the Chicago Cubs largely sat idly. In fairness, so did many of their competitors; there was limited action at the league's annual hot stove festival. The Cubs signed two relievers: reclamation project Collin Snider (on a minor-league deal), and Hoby Milner, a soft-tossing lefty with a funky delivery and familiarity with Craig Counsell. Other teams were busier, though. Most of the top free-agent relievers have signed elsewhere. The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias and lured in ex-Padres closer Robert Suarez. The Dodgers and Mets gave three-year deals to Edwin Díaz and Devin Williams, respectively; the Blue Jays gave a slightly less lucrative one to Tyler Rogers. Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen signed with the Tigers. Ryan Helsley went to the Orioles on a two-year deal, which he can renounce after 2026 if he sees a chance to make more money elsewhere. Emilio Pagán went back to the Reds on a two-year deal worth $20 million. The Cubs have signed righty setup man Phil Maton, in addition to Snider and Milner, but some of those players signing elsewhere stung. Helsley would have been a great fit. Williams made sense, as well, and it was reported that he was interested in reuniting with Counsell. Suarez was a fit, and the Cubs were allegedly kicking the tires on him, but the kick must not have inspired much confidence in his ability to hold up. Díaz, Helsley, Williams, and Suarez were considered the elite relief options on the free-agent market. It's no surprise, though, that the Cubs weren't willing to offer up the deals any of them ultimately secured. That's not how Jed Hoyer believes in building a bullpen. In each of the last few years, though, Hoyer has found bargains once the initial surge of relief signings has softened the demand for players and begun to pull down their price tags. Here are a few of the top relievers remaining, whom Hoyer could turn to as he tries to fill out a bullpen still rife with opportunity. Brad Keller A longtime starter, Keller reinvented himself as a high-leverage reliever for the 2025 Cubs. The initial engagement between player and team worked gorgeously; why should Keller risk going somewhere else? In 69 2/3 innings this season, Keller had a 2.07 ERA, a WHIP of 0.96, and 75 strikeouts, and even filled the closer role late in the season. His fastball averaged 97 mph, trailing only Daniel Palencia among Cubs hurlers. There is little reason to believe this was a fluke, and the Cubs should have the inside track on signing him. He's likely to command a multi-year deal worth at least $10 million per year, though. Taylor Rogers Sticking with the theme of familiar faces, Rogers has a potential role with the team in 2026, even with the signing of Milner, who has a similar profile. Outside of Milner, the only left-handed relief options on the roster are Luke Little, Jordan Wicks, and rookie Riley Martin. Ideally, there would be another hard thrower added to the bunch, but Rogers would serve as much-needed depth. Though he had an unimpressive 5.02 ERA after being traded to the Cubs, Rogers had a 3.32 ERA across his 50 2/3 total innings in 2025. He should be willing to sign a cheap one-year contract this offseason. Pete Fairbanks Fairbanks is arguably the most exciting option left on the relief market. He served as the Rays' closer for the last three seasons, and collected 75 saves over that span. In 2025, Fairbanks had a 2.83 ERA, 59 strikeouts to 18 walks, and 27 saves in 60 1/3 innings. If the Cubs sign Fairbanks, he would immediately become the most accomplished closer on the roster. Fairbanks will be 32 before Opening Day and is coming off his first fully healthy season since 2020. From 2021-2024, he dealt with rotator cuff, shoulder, lat and hip problems, and even a nerve issue that limited him to 156 2/3 innings during that time. While injuries will be a concern, Fairbanks's price should reflect that. A two--year deal somewhere in the same neighborhood as Pagán's will likely be what gets it done. Luke Weaver Weaver made his debut in 2016 with the Cardinals. He was one of the better starting pitching prospects in baseball at the time. After eight seasons as (mostly) a back-of-the-rotation arm, mainly with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, he converted to relief with the Yankees in 2024. He rewarded them with a 2.89 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 84 innings. He did take a slight step back in 2025, as he posted a 3.62 ERA and was limited to mostly one-inning appearances, but that had much to do with the heavy workload he bore all the way through October the year before. The transition to the bullpen has helped Weaver improve his fastball velocity, which has lived above 95 mph since 2024. Weaver doesn’t have full seasons of closing experience like Fairbanks, but would still be an established right-handed, late-inning option in a Cubs bullpen that thins out after Palencia and Maton. Evan Phillips A key piece of the Dodgers’ bullpen from 2022-2024, Phillips was non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2025 season. Phillips will not be available for the start of 2026, but should be able to make an impact at some point. He was excellent with the Dodgers in 2022, with a 1.14 ERA and 77 strikeouts, and had another elite year in 2023 with a 2.04 ERA. At 31 years old, he should be able to regain at least some of that form. The Cubs would need to add a few more arms to make the bullpen a strength for next season, but if they do add the necessary reinforcements, Phillips can be that piece to put them over the top in October. In 15 1/3 postseason innings, he has not given up a run. There are not many arms on the market that have the same postseason experience and recent success as Phillips. The Tommy John recovery will likely limit him to a one-year deal. View the full article

The 2022-26 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. For anyone unfamiliar with the sprawling 442-page contract, the CBA outlines how Major League Baseball operates. It addresses spring training allowances, revenue-sharing guidelines, minimum salaries, deferred contracts, and more. Tony Clark, the Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), and MLB commissioner Robert Manfred have both indicated that they anticipate a lockout after the current CBA expires. Manfred even went as far as to state: Competitive parity in MLB and the potential implementation of a salary cap, which the MLBPA vehemently opposes, are already being discussed. Other major topics include the international draft, integrity protections with the rise of gambling, and combating service time manipulation. Manfred has been gearing up for a potential lockout. In 2023, he launched the Commissioner’s Ambassador Program (CAP) to “represent the game at MLB events and support the league's international growth, among other responsibilities”. This past season, Manfred toured MLB clubhouses, sometimes bringing CAP members. Historically, the MLBPA has been the bridge between players and the commissioner’s office. CAP however, is leapfrogging union reps and player agents to directly advise players under the guidance of the commissioner’s office, fueling further tension. *Picture of the chart taken during a recent visit to the Baseball Hall of Fame The Los Angeles Dodgers’ back-to-back World Series titles, achieved with top-three payrolls in both seasons, have intensified discussions about a salary cap. Their spending frenzy last offseason led to a record-breaking $582.25 million luxury tax payroll in 2025. While World Series runner-ups are often afterthoughts in the history books, the Dodgers’ victories came against other high-payroll teams, the New York Yankees in 2024 ($389.17 million) and the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025 ($288.60 million). For once, I agree with Bryce Harper. Whining about the Dodgers’ spending is not worth the attention. The Dodgers are a well-oiled machine. Besides consistently signing quality free agents, they have one of, if not the largest, analytics departments across all professional sports. The other 29 teams in the league could beef up their analytics staff and allocate more revenue towards their payroll, but they choose not to. Why should the Dodgers be held liable for the Pirates allocating only 32.4% ($105.67 million) of their revenue towards their payroll in 2025? It’s absolutely asinine for the rest of the league to bemoan the willingness of the Dodgers’ ownership to invest in the team and not match their moves. Every team had the financial resources to offer Shohei Ohtani a 10-year $700 million contract with its mind-boggling deferrals. Any organization could have signed Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, to a long-term deal, despite concerns about his injury history. These moves, and many more, have consistently worked in the Dodgers' favor. Luck certainly plays a role in the Dodgers' player acquisitions, but the decisive factor in their success is their willingness to act when other teams won’t. Sources: Forbes, Cots Contracts In an attempt to mitigate disparity, the CBA penalizes excessive spenders with the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). If a team's 40-man roster payroll exceeds the set yearly CBT threshold, it is taxed on the overages, with rates increasing for consecutive seasons of overspending. This past year, the CBT threshold was $241 million, and in 2026, it increases to $244 million. The CBA lays out MLB’s revenue-sharing model. Teams contribute to a shared pool, determined by a fixed percentage of net local revenue (the club’s local revenue minus actual stadium expenses), which is then distributed evenly to all 30 clubs. The exact percentage has fluctuated over the years, and it’s currently set at 48%. Jake McKibbin from Talk Sox’s sister site, Brewer Fanatic, notes MLB’s current model has two glaring loopholes: Some teams have managed to avoid paying what they should owe; and The revenues shared are then distributed equally, rather than on a meritocratic basis. That disincentivizes some teams from trying to win and improve the on-field product. Many teams have partial ownership of local/regional sports networks. As long as its accounting adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles, it has flexibility in how profits are allocated. McKibbin further outlines the loophole, stating: “While revenue from local TV rights is subject to sharing across the league, profits generated through ownership stakes in the broadcasting networks are not. Instead, they are treated as a subsidiary/investment earning.” The current landscape of the free-agent market highlights how teams are preparing for the lockout. The Angels signed former player Kurt Suzuki as a manager to an unusual one-year deal. Shifting from previous years, four players accepted qualifying offers. Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty surprisingly opted in with their respective teams instead of hitting free agency. While teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, and Blue Jays continue to spend aggressively to contend, the Cubs and Red Sox have each adopted different approaches to roster construction amid the uncertainty of a potential lockout. Both organizations reflect the character of their cities and the legacy of their longstanding franchises. Theo Epstein shepherded the Red Sox out of their 86-year championship drought and the Cubs out of their 108-year championship drought. Their respective owners, the Ricketts Family and Fenway Sports Group, rejected proposals to relocate each team from the two oldest ballparks in baseball. The Cubs invested nearly $1 billion to revamp the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley Field, while the $1.6 billion Fenway Corners development project is underway for the Red Sox. Craig Counsell (five-year, $40 million contract signed in November 2023) and Alex Cora (three-year, $21.75 million contract covering 2025-27) are two of the sport’s most respected and highest-paid managers. In recent years, they have struggled to advance to the postseason and make a deep playoff run. There’s also a history of personnel flow between the organizations’ front offices. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a disciple of the Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, who, in turn, was mentored by Theo Epstein. Hoyer (who could pass as Anderson Cooper's brother) held the following roles with the Red Sox: Assistant to the General Manager (2002), Assistant General Manager (2005-09), Co-General Manager (2005-06). Ryan Otero, the Cubs’ Director of Pitching, was recently hired as a special assistant to Breslow. Despite netting $584 million in revenue, the third-highest in baseball, the Cubs’ 39.5% payroll-to-revenue ratio ranked 25th. The Cubs have mostly steered clear of long-term deals for frontline talent in recent years. Ten years ago, Hoyer, then general manager under Theo Epstein, oversaw the Cubs’ largest contract ever: Jayson Heyward’s eight-year, $184-million deal. Excluding Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal, most of the Cubs' acquisitions since have been geared towards short-term deals; think Shota Imanaga’s original four-year, $53 million deal, signed in 2024, and Seiya Suzuki’s five-year, $85 million deal, signed in 2022. Homegrown players Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ were signed to three-year extensions in 2024. This past offseason, the Cubs offered Alex Bregman a four-year, $115 million contract that looked paltry in comparison to Detroit’s six-year, $171.5 million offer and the Astros’ six-year, $156 million offer. Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120 million contract. In Hoyer’s defense, he does his best with a limited budget imposed by ownership. He’s not afraid to jump the gun and make seismic deals, as evidenced by the Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker. Most alarming is that numerous key Cubs players enter free agency after the 2027 season, including left fielder Ian Happ, designated hitter/outfielder Seiya Suzuki, starter Jameson Taillon, second baseman Nico Hoerner, and catcher Carson Kelly. Looking beyond 2027, the Cubs’ list of free agents snowballs with each passing year. Entering the 2027 season, shortstop Dansby Swanson and reliever Phil Maton are currently the only two Cubs players with guaranteed salaries. With the Cubs set to lose a large portion of their roster after next year and the limited spending, fans have suggested the team is “clean books” strategy to prepare for the impending lockout. The Cubs have developed a solid core of position players without spending heavily on free-agent talent. Cot’s Contracts projects that they can spend $46.12 million before hitting the first CB threshold. Their rotation needs an upgrade, and starters Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King are potential targets. Extensions for homegrown talent, e.g. Pete Crow-Armstrong, are another avenue to build long-term roster stability. Moreover, the organization has been successful at recruiting Japanese talent to the team. Signing flamethrower Tatsuya Imai to a contract would assuage the “clean books” talks. The Red Sox allocated 43.8% ($251.47 million) of their previous year’s revenue ($574 million, the fourth-highest total in the league) towards their 2025 payroll. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a former protege of Hoyer. Like the Cubs, the Red Sox tend to avoid long-term free-agent contracts. They’re one of the four remaining teams that haven’t signed a free agent to a major-league contract this offseason. The difference between the Cubs and the Red Sox’s roster construction is that the Red Sox have extended their homegrown players beyond 2027: Bryan Bello: 6 years, $55 million (2024-29), 2030 club option Kristian Campbell: 8 years, $60 million (2025-32), 2033-34 club options Ceddanne Rafaela: 8 years, $50 million (2024-31), 2032 club option Garrett Crochet: 6 years, $170 million (2026-31) Roman Anthony: 8 years, $130 million (2026-33), 2034 club option Teams do their best to accurately value the risk of free-agent contracts. Execution is equally as important as evaluation, and Breslow’s primary area of weakness has been acquiring free agents to supplement the roster. Looking at FanGraphs’ “We Tried Tracker” from last year, the Red Sox whiffed on almost all of their free-agent targets. Who was the most “notable” free agent that they acquired during the 2024-25 offseason, besides Bregman? Walker Buehler? Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations, warned, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent”. Post-Winter Meetings, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, two of the available biggest bats, are off the table. While Schwarber always seemed primed to return to the Phillies, the Cubs and Red Sox reportedly met with Alonso. The latter had concerns with Alonso’s age (he just turned 31), defense, and baserunning. Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and take on the risk of a free agent contract, future projections be damned. Before the 2018 season, the Red Sox signed the 30-year-old J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110 million deal. He generated 13.3 total fWAR through his tenure with the Red Sox. Roughly three-quarters of his WAR output came in 2018 (5.9) and 2019 (4.0). Towards the end of his contract, his performance declined, but it wasn’t a complete wash. With that being said, Martinez was, arguably, the linchpin of the 2018 team’s World Series run. The Red Sox’s homegrown core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi desperately needed a power bat to supplement the lineup. Martinez was that solution. Other teams weren’t willing to bite, and the Red Sox took the risk of signing him. Would the current Red Sox front office sign Martinez? I think not. A club with a substantial record of failed free-agent signings gains nothing by creating excuses about feigned concerns with a player’s profile or adding an extra year for a marginal sum when it sits at the top of the league in revenue. I’m not saying the Red Sox should necessarily overpay for free-agent contracts that don’t align with their current needs (take the Padres hoarding infielders on long-term contracts). Likewise, signing Kyle Tucker would just exacerbate the team’s outfield logjam. Still, adherence to strict rationalism won’t bolster their roster and doesn’t match the realities of the free-agent market. As the offseason progresses, MLB organizations will continue to navigate the implications of the new collective bargaining agreement. The Red Sox have committed to a young core; whether they choose to supplement the roster further is up for question. The Cubs seemingly have built their roster around the lockout, with significant money coming off the books after the 2026 season. At the end of the day, the uncertainty surrounding the future payroll should not dictate roster-building decision-making. MLB free agency remains a free market, and teams must stay committed to putting the best possible roster on the field. Both the Cubs and Red Sox’s futures are bright, but failing to make significant upgrades through free agency will make it more challenging for each team to compete if or when they reach the playoffs. View the full article

Dylan Cease is ready to go. He made that fully clear in his introductory press conference with the Blue Jays during the Winter Meetings, but it doesn't seem like he has second-guessed himself at all over the past few weeks. A day before American Thanksgiving, he signed the largest free agent contract the team has ever given to a pitcher to break the dam of the open market. Despite some notable action around the league this week, it remains the most lucrative contract of the offseason at the time of writing. Cease is somewhat of a contradiction of the pitcher archetypes that usually make it to free agency. He has top-tier strikeout stuff, yet he's very durable and only just about to turn 30. A repeated pattern of underperforming strong peripherals caused some chatter as to whether Cease, as true of a north-south, two-pitch pitcher there is, would live up to the expectations of a $210 million starter. As with every new addition, though, he was signed for the player the Blue Jays thought he would become, not who he has been. He won't be quite the same pitcher when he steps on the Rogers Centre mound for the first time. Manager John Schneider, speaking to the media for the first time since Game 7 of the World Series, echoed that sentiment in Orlando on Tuesday. DiamondCentric's John Bonnes was on hand for the event. Schneider called Cease an "inquisitive mind," someone hyper-aware of his past shortcomings and eager to innovate and find ways to get better. The right-hander was reported to have asked frequent questions of pitching coaches Pete Walker and Sam Greene when they pitched him on how they could help him become a consistent ace. He came away intrigued by their answers. Cease may have come with a high price tag, but he is no finished product. This is someone who will work together with his club to build the best version of himself, a diligent process that will surely reflect Toronto's financial investment in him. At the Winter Meetings, Schneider delved further into the specifics of what the plan is to allow Cease to reach the heights he's striving for. The manager acknowledged that there had been some "delivery stuff that has been a little bit inconsistent, like every pitcher, over the last couple years." He then commended Cease's openness to "start thinking more about a change-up" and asking how the team would help him develop it. Those are some pretty good nuggets worth diving into. What might Schneider mean by 'inconsistent delivery stuff'? For years, Cease has had an over-the-top arm slot with a feel for spinning the ball, which allows him to get cutting action on that 97-mph rising fastball and the bullet slider. I wouldn't expect that to change a whole lot, but there was a discrepancy in the release patterns between the fastball and slider that might have played a background role in contributing to his inflated ERA. Since coming into his current mechanics in 2021, he has had a 5-6° difference in arm angle between the two pitches, with the heater coming out at a slightly more vertical 55-56° and the slider hovering around 50° - this remained the case throughout his Cy Young runner-up 2022 season. In 2024, however, he closed that gap to about 3°, making the two pitches less distinct in their delivery on his way to more down-ballot Cy Young votes. This past season, the rift returned, with the slider averaging a 48.5° arm angle, a career-low for a full season. Prior trends in his release height remained consistent, meaning this had more to do with horizontal release position. The chart below, from Baseball Savant, shows how Cease's two primary pitches were released at almost the exact same point from the center of the mound in 2024, before the slider came out farther towards third base this past year: Now feels like a good time to remind everyone to look at the Y-axis of this chart. We are dealing with differences in mere inches here, details that would be invisible to the naked eyes of you, me, and everyone else who isn't an experienced player or coach in the big leagues. To the hitters, though, who spend countless hours on the lookout for pitch tipping and any other clue that might tell them what's coming their way, it just might be noticeable. I'd wager this topic was in the general realm of what was discussed between Cease and the Blue Jays a few weeks ago, but it's also important to remember that MLB teams have access to much more expansive release and delivery data than the public. It felt like Cease was a prime candidate to once again attempt the integration of a changeup or splitter to his arsenal weeks before Schneider confirmed that was the case. Cease himself admitted a couple of years ago that he has long been working hard to add a pitch with arm-side movement, and added that the grip he used for the very slow lollipop changeup we have seen from him on occasion was modelled after Kevin Gausman's splitter. Isn't it funny how things work out sometimes? Cease is now teammates with Gausman, as well as Trey Yesavage and Jeff Hoffman, three prominent splitter users. Shane Bieber returned from Tommy John with a new kick change. New signing Cody Ponce similarly revamped his changeup overseas. The Blue Jays are a hotbed for plus off-speed pitches, and there can't be many, if any at all, better places for Cease to learn one. The advantages of throwing more competitive pitches are intuitive: More weapons give hitters more to think about at the plate, giving the pitcher a higher chance of going deeper into games. Researchers have developed models to evaluate pitchers, especially starters, with this very concept. The knock on Cease from a pitch design standpoint has always been that he's a two-pitch guy, but he started to move away from that in the second half of the 2025 season and got rewarded. Once he pushed his combined fastball and slider usage below 80%, opponents were less successful in the aggregate, despite some walk problems at the outset of this strategy (which is to be expected, as control isn't going to be great when tinkering with new pitch types). Dylan Cease Monthly Splits, 2025 Month FF+SL Usage% K-BB% wOBA March/April 81.0% 17.6% .350 May 91.7% 24.8% .282 June 92.6% 19.4% .303 July 85.1% 21.2% .340 August 71.7% 15.8% .292 September 74.3% 20.0% .309 Every changeup iteration he has attempted has achieved the lower spin rates we typically see from the pitch, but the vertical movements resemble that of a dead-zone fastball (15" IVB). The ones he has tried in recent years have been well under 80 mph, far too slow to be unpredictable. I wonder if his newest attempt at an off-speed pitch will be classified as a splitter or a kick change if and when the Blue Jays can bring it to life, seeing as his repeated problem to this point has been a lack of vertical separation from the heater. Getting the pitch to meaningfully fall off the table is something he has not been able to do yet, and it'll figure to be one of his first objectives as he gets to work this winter. Dylan Cease Career Changeup Specs (2019-25) Pitches MPH RPM IVB Arm-Side HB 710 79.0 1,666 15.2" 6.1" The tidbits from Cease's introductory press conference, as well as John Schneider's insights into the conversations he has had with his new team, should be reassuring to the fanbase. An organization that prides itself to this degree on clubhouse culture and bringing the right personalities into the fold would not hand out $210 million on a whim, and Cease has shown every indication that he's ready to admit to and work through his previous shortfalls, diligently try to be the ace he's expected to be, and take pride in being a Blue Jay. The fact that the team dug this far into the weeds as to how they'd help him get better before they even spoke with him is no doubt reflective of the current standard for free agency meetings. Yet, because it helped persuade him to sign here, it's also a testament to the lengths they are willing to go in order to bring the game's best talent to Toronto. If it was good enough for Dylan Cease, more are sure to follow. The prospect of his evolution for 2026 and beyond looms excitingly. View the full article

If you want to be pedantic about it, the next step for the Miami Marlins is to actually announce their signing of Christopher Morel—the one-year, $2 million deal is still pending a physical as of early Monday morning. Assuming no complications with that, then what? As has been widely reported, the Marlins are searching for bullpen upgrades via free agency while entertaining trade offers for their starting pitchers, with most of the focus on Edward Cabrera. Contract extensions for Miami's top pre-arb players are also in play. I expect the bullpen signing to come first. Most of the relievers on the market who merited multi-year deals have already gotten them, and the Marlins insist on keeping their books clean beyond next season. Kirby Yates feels like the realistic best-case scenario. He was in the conversation for most dominant 'pen arm in MLB from the beginning of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025 before various injuries derailed him. Prized Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai has until January 2 to strike a deal with a major league club. Many of the suitors who fall short of acquiring the 27-year-old right-hander figure to be interested in Cabrera, himself being a 27-year-old right-hander. The Marlins might as well wait until then to intensify their negotiations. Extensions almost certainly will come last. Those can wait until spring training (once the Marlins have the comfort of knowing their extension candidates are fully healthy entering year one of a potential long-term deal). On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4 with a walk. Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 1-for-4, extending his on-base streak to 12 games. Only 102 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 After 10 seasons as owner of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Ken Babby sold the team to the Prospector Baseball Group. One of PBG's co-founders vows to continue running the Triple-A affiliate with "a distinctively local touch, with fans coming first." 🔷 The Marlins contributed 20 items to the MLB Winter Meetings Charity Auction, which combined to raise $18,165 for the Little League Disaster Relief Fund. A game-used Ichiro Suzuki jersey from 2016 did a lot of the heavy lifting ($7,030 winning bid). 🔷 Congratulations to Marle and Otto Lopez, who had their wedding last weekend in the Dominican Republic. Agustín Ramírez and Xavier Edwards were among the Marlins teammates who attended. 🔷 Today marks the final day of the 2025 signing period for international amateur free agents. The Marlins have officially signed 26 players this year, as shown here. That table will be updated if any stragglers join the organization today. The 2026 signing period will open on January 15. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the following players signed major league free agent deals: Jorge Polanco with the New York Mets (2-YR/$40M), Merrill Kelly with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-YR/$40M), Tyler Rogers with the Toronto Blue Jays (3-YR/$37M), Danny Jansen (2-YR/$14.5M), Alexis Díaz and Tyler Alexander with the Texas Rangers, Kenley Jansen with the Detroit Tigers (1-YR/$11M), Amed Rosario with the New York Yankees (1-YR/$2.5M) and Dustin May with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Kansas City Royals traded Angel Zerpa to the Milwaukee Brewers for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, and they signed Maikel Garcia to a contract extension (5-YR/$57.5M). View the full article

At this week's hotly anticipated (and grossly underwhelming) MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando, a lack of activity from Chicago's North Side baseball team left fans feeling colder than a Roscoe Village sidewalk in January. While the squad's starting pitching rotation has not been rounded out quite yet, skipper Craig Counsell emphasized to the media in his presser that pitching is not a commodity of which any team can have enough. Jed Hoyer and his staff agree, but so far, they're taking a quantity-over-quality approach. They've signed three relievers this winter: Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, and Collin Snider. These three could prove key pieces to a bullpen that kept batters off balance in 2025. However, the bullpen is really only worth a damn if the starter sets them up for success. So, with prime targets like Michael King, Joe Ryan, and the pined-over Tatsuya Imai remaining unsigned, what's next? And, more importantly, who is the best option to help the Chicago Cubs claim the Fall Classic? Even Cubs fans engaged in heated debates over what is or isn't a Christmas movie agree that their favorite baseball team needs a poised, imposing starting pitcher, not only to attain their lofty postseason goals, but to reclaim the crown in their own National League Central, where the Milwaukee Brewers have reigned for far too long. There are a few fine options who would instantly make this squad better, but we've covered a handful of them recently. Today, let's focus on the pitcher who could make this a championship-caliber group: Tatsuya Imai. Imai is the best fit to join the Chicago Cubs; that's why the club's pursuit of him is so intentional. In eight seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, Imai has been sturdy and occasionally dominant, with a 3.15 ERA and 907 strikeouts. Though he comes from the land of the diving splitter, Imai's mid-90s velocity and plus slider make him distinctly American in style and could make him the missing ingredient for a Cubs team often light on whiffs. Needless to say, another main component of Imai's profile that makes him attractive to the Cubs' front office is his youth. At just 27 years old, he could add a charge of young talent sorely missing in this rotation. Outside of Cade Horton, the Cubs' rotation leans on the older side, with just Horton and Javier Assad coming in under age 30. Younger players carry more untapped potential than a veteran player with a known track record—although, of course, they also come with more risk. With the acquisition of Tatsuya Imai, the Chicago Cubs would have an opportunity to announce that they are a true World Series contender, not just a postseason also-ran. After falling in five games to the Milwaukee Brewers last October, Craig Counsell's squad looked on as his former team got erased by the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. The North Siders aren't as good as the Dodgers, probably, but they do have a chance to be better than the Brew Crew, and Imai's arrival at Wrigley would signal that they think so, too. View the full article

On Saturday, the Royals and Brewers made a headlines-grabbing swap in an effort to boost both of their clubs. Kansas City acquired outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears in exchange for reliever Angel Zerpa. After acquiring free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas earlier this week, the Royals have now improved their outfield depth with this latest addition from Milwaukee. That said, it doesn't seem like Royals GM JJ Picollo is done just yet. Rogers wrote that the Royals front office is still looking to add to their lineup this offseason to improve an offense that ranked 26th in OPS and runs scored a season ago. Royals fans have been expecting a significant outfield upgrade this offseason, especially with rumors connecting Kansas City to big-name outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Jarren Duran, and Luis Robert Jr. That said, they shouldn't overlook this vital deal with the Brewers. This move checked a lot of boxes for Kansas City, and it still gives them the roster and financial flexibility they need for a deal later this offseason. Let's look at who the Royals acquired in Collins and Mears and what they gave up in Zerpa, who has been a key part of the Royals' bullpen the past couple of seasons. Royals Get Polished, Controllable Outfielder in Isaac Collins The main prize in the deal for the Royals is Collins, a 28-year-old outfielder who finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year race last season. A ninth-round pick out of Creighton, Collins isn't precisely a high-ceiling kind of player, but he provides the type of profile that the Royals were missing in the outfield last season until Mike Yastrzemski came over at the Trade Deadline. In 441 plate appearances, Collins slashed .263/.368/.411 with a .779 OPS and 122 wRC+. He also hit nine home runs, scored 56 runs, collected 54 RBI, stole 16 bases, and posted a 0.61 BB/K ratio. For context, Collins' BB/K ratio would've been the fourth-best mark of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances last season, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, Collins' strong plate discipline wasn't just evident in his BB/K ratio, but also in his strong O-Swing%, Whiff%, and BB%. The exit velocity and batted-ball metrics were a bit of a concern for Collins last season. He ranked in the 25th percentile in average EV, 16th percentile in barrel rate, and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His 87.8 MPH average exit velocity would have ranked 10th last year among Royals outfielders, tying him with Kyle Isbel, who had a similar average EV. Thus, some feel that Collins may be a regression candidate in 2025, which Jack Stern of Brewer Fanatic wrote about in December. There certainly are some concerns with Collins when looking at his Statcast profile. That said, there are a few positives about his outlook in Kansas City for 2026 and beyond. First, he did a good job of pulling the ball well to both fields (he's a switch-hitter). When applying his 2025 spray chart to Kauffman Stadium, it seems like Collins wouldn't have missed a beat, though a few of the home runs to right field may have been short. Other than the home runs, his spray profile should transition seamlessly to Kansas City's home confines. Another positive about Collins is that his "struggles" seemed to stem from a September slump, which colored Brewers fans' outlook for him next season. When looking at his splits via Savant, he posted a .664 OPS in the last month of the year after three-straight months of an OPS over .845. While it makes sense that the Brewers may have used him more sparingly going into the postseason due to his end-of-the-season issues, his overall performance from 2025 was still strong and worthy of regular playing time. He also still showcased substantial OBP numbers throughout 2025, even in months that weren't great batting-average-wise. In September, his OBP was .345 despite a .191 average. In April and May, his OBP marks were .306 and .319, respectively. To compare, Royals outfielders ranked last in OBP with a .283 mark, according to Fangraphs. Thus, even when Collins was at his worst last year, his profile is still a significant upgrade over what they trotted out last year in the outfield. Collins' rolling xwOBA chart also showed some positive trends at the end of the season after an initial dip in September. That indicates that Collins may have also been a victim of some rough batted-ball luck, which should correct itself in 2026. Finally, the projections seem to paint Collins in a positive light for 2026. Steamer projects Collins to post a .232/.335/.370 slash with a .704 OPS and 101 wRC+. He is also projected to have a 0.52 BB/K ratio, .137 ISO, and .314 wOBA. Obviously, many of those projections are a regression from his 2025 numbers. However, the BB/K ratio is pretty stable, and the wOBA matches the second-best mark for Royals outfielders a season ago (which belonged to Adam Frazier). Collins may not be THE answer in the Royals outfield next year and long-term (though he doesn't become a free agent until 2031). But he is AN answer in the sense that he gives Kansas City the kind of plate discipline and overall skills (he had a +4 OAA defensively last year) that the Royals desperately need. Nick Mears Boosts the Royals Bullpen in Chase and Whiffs The Royals' bullpen showed significant improvement in 2025 thanks to Carlos Estevez, who brought stability to the closer's role, and to better overall depth in the middle innings. Kansas City's bullpen ranked 7th in reliever ERA, 12th in WHIP, and fourth in BB/9. However, Royals relievers struggled in one particular category: strikeouts. The group ranked 29th in K/9, and while it worked out for them in 2025, it's unlikely that the bullpen would be as fortunate in 2026 without some upgrades and significant improvement in some critical areas. When it came to why the bullpen struggled, Royals relievers had trouble generating chase and whiffs, which coincided with their strikeout struggles last year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen ranked 28th in O-Swing% (29.7%) and 30th in SwStr% (9.8%). Mears helps the Royals' bullpen in both of those categories. He posted a 37.3% O-Swing% and generated a 13% SwStr%. His 28% CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rate was also much better than the Royals bullpen's 26.9% CSW rate as a group, which ranked 27th last season. When it comes to his profile, Mears offers a three-pitch mix with substantial TJ Stuff+ numbers, which has helped him perform well in the chase and whiff categories. Mears' overall TJ Stuff+ was 107 last year, with his four-seamer, slider, and curveball posting grades of 63, 59, and 54, respectively. Those are all above-average marks, and he also posted above-average results in Zone% (55.7%) and chase rate (33.2%). An undrafted pitcher out of Sacramento (he went to Rocklin High School and then Sacramento City College), his best offering is his slider, which not only sported a 108 TJ Stuff+ but also a 46% chase and 38.4% whiff rate. Mears was effective against lefties and righties with the pitch, as he sported a .193 wOBA and 27.4% whiff rate with the slider against lefties and a .204 wOBA and 44.6% whiff rate against righties. A further breakdown of his slider's performance against lefties and righties can be seen in the data and heatmap below (courtesy of TJ Stats). Against lefties, he tended to attack hitters with the slider more middle and down. Against righties, he attacked more low and away. Both approaches produced results, as illustrated by his CSW marks of 35% and 40.2% against lefties and righties, respectively. The clip compilation below, showing strikeouts of Jurickson Profar and Julio Rodriguez, also demonstrates how productive Mears could be when he commanded the slider effectively. The primary concern with Mears is his fastball, which had good TJ Stuff+ numbers, but didn't generate much chase (22.7%) or whiff (14.6%). When looking at his four-seamer heatmap and data via TJ Stats, he did a good job of locating the ball up, but he seemed to struggle to get CSW and to give up productive contact (as illustrated by the mediocre xwOBACON marks). Allowing productive contact seemed to be an issue overall, as demonstrated by his .405 xwOBACON allowed last year. That said, if he can improve his xwOBACON on the four-seamer, it could go a long way toward better overall results in 2026. He certainly will be an interesting project for pitching coach Brian Sweeney and new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran this spring in Surprise. If they can help with his four-seamer shape and command, he could end up being a solid setup man for the Royals in 2026 and beyond. Royals Willing to Part With Angel Zerpa This offseason, Rogers reported that the Royals were interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who could be effective primarily against left-handed pitchers. That made me wonder if the Royals were planning on trading one of their lefties on the 40-man roster: Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, or Bailey Falter. Yesterday, Picollo showed they were willing to trade away Zerpa, even though he was one of the lefty relievers Matt Quatraro heavily utilized in medium-to-high-leverage situations. The Venezuelan lefty has always been a bit of a dilemma for the Royals the past couple of seasons. On one hand, he didn't walk batters (2.64 K/BB ratio), and he demonstrated durability, pitching 64.2 innings for the Royals last year. His ERA was a bit high for a setup man at 4.18, but his FIP was much better at 3.86, which was a career-high. And yet, it felt like the Royals had maxed out their hand with Zerpa and his outlook. He was a fine middle-innings reliever, but he didn't have the TJ Stuff+ profile to be anything more than that, as illustrated below. Zerpa sported a 97 overall TJ Stuff+ last year, with his sinker and slider the only pitches with grades over 50. He did flood the strike zone with a 54.7% zone rate. However, he sported mediocre chase (26.7%) and whiff (16.4%) rates. Considering the Royals' problems in those two areas last year, it made sense that the Royals were willing to part with Zerpa in a trade, especially if it meant getting a pitcher who could be better than Zerpa in whiff and chase. Now, the Brewers are an excellent organization, known for developing pitchers on a budget. Zerpa could be a success story for Milwaukee, and if so, kudos to them for another positive development. To be fair to Zerpa, his Steamer projections paint a rosy picture for 2026: 3.44 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio, and 1.27 WHIP in 60 IP. That said, the Royals needed to give up something to get something needed in return this offseason. Zerpa was the odd man out in this case, and based on his metrics and outlook, I think trading the lefty was well worth the return they received in Collins and Mears. (Plus, Baseball Trade Values felt the same way, too.) Let's hope Picollo has more stellar moves like this one up his sleeve this winter, especially with their goal of returning to the postseason after missing out in 2025. View the full article

Certainly, the list of teams that have yet to sign a major league free agent is trying to tell us something. It always is. When that list includes the Nationals and Rockies -- two clubs that spent 2025 playing out the string and still managed to finish a combined 80 games out of first place -- the message isn’t exactly encrypted. Those organizations have made peace with their current reality, and free agency is apparently not the place where they plan to fix it. As a reminder, Major League Baseball ownership is not required to spend money in any sort of equitable or competitive way. There are luxury tax penalties, sure, but many teams treat those like speed bumps -- something to hit harder so you get airborne on the other side. The Dodgers, perched at the top of the payroll food chain, pay a luxury tax larger than the entire payrolls of 12 other teams. This is not an accident. It’s a choice. None of this is meant as an excuse for the Pohlad family. They are free to spend as much as they’d like. In fact, it would probably make them more money in the long run. There’s research on fandom psychology showing that when teams win championships during a child’s formative years (roughly ages 8 to 12), the emotional attachment is basically permanent. Speaking as someone who was 8 and 10 when the Twins last won the World Series, I can say with some confidence that without those titles, I probably wouldn’t be sitting here banging away at a keyboard explaining why this organization should win baseball games. You can argue, and people often do, that baseball in Minnesota presents unique challenges. Cold spring weather. Cabin weekends. A population that wants to be outside the second the snow melts. Pepper in the lingering perception that downtown isn’t safe. (I’d argue that’s at least partially manufactured, but the response to it is very real. Target Field’s surrounding infrastructure is designed so fans can exit their cars, enter a ramp, cross a skyway, and reach their seats without ever really interacting with downtown at all.) Then there’s the simple, unavoidable cost of taking a family to a game. Wrap that all in a fetid burrito shell of losing baseball and you can see how the attendance has shrunk to near nothing. All of that is to say: winning could solve a lot of those problems. Grabbing attention in a positive way would help awake a dormant fanbase. It would be easy -- and honestly pretty cathartic -- to wallow in the reality that the Twins aren’t going to “play the spend game.” The ongoing team sale saga only reinforces why blowing past self-imposed guardrails might not be prudent when buyers never quite materialize. This is simply the world the Twins have chosen to operate in. We can be mad about it. We can tweet about it. But we don’t control it. Which brings us to the first immutable truth of the Twins’ offseason: they are not shopping in the premium free agent aisle. You can point to Carlos Correa as evidence that they’ll chase elite talent, but even there the market was softened by injury concerns. Acknowledging that, you’d still think there should be some options in the next tier, those players who fit a team publicly committed to building around its existing core. As Derek Falvey explained during the Winter Meetings, this is just how the market works now. The Twins have openly acknowledged the need for a power bat, but the odds of that bat being the market-setter -- someone like Pete Alonso -- were always close to zero. Yes, it would have been fun to watch the Polar Bear deposit baseballs into the Target Field seats for a couple of summers. It’s also true that aging corner infielders on long-term deals have a tendency to stop aging gracefully right around the time the contract gets uncomfortable. The real question is whether similar production can be found in the next tier -- the Ryan O’Hearn or Carlos Santana types who sat just behind Alonso in WAR in 2025. That doesn’t mean help isn’t coming. As Falvey noted, conversations with late-signing free agents often begin far earlier than fans realize. It’s not sexy, but it’s worth remembering that Bader’s 4.4 WAR in 2025 ranked among the best of any current free agent center fielder -- and 2.7 of that came in a Twins uniform. Taken together, the Bader, Coulombe, and France trio produced 5.1 WAR at a combined cost of roughly $8.75 million. That’s not a terrible return for waiting out the market. That said, there’s a fine line between acknowledging efficient roster construction and applauding austerity, and celebrating miserly decision-making by front offices might be the most lasting -- and frustrating -- legacy Moneyball left an entire generation of fans. The second notable offseason trend is the reliever market, where top-end arms have been scooped up like James Woods following a trail of candy -- and the Twins haven’t even been rumored participants. This is especially confusing given that the front office effectively emptied the bullpen at last year’s trade deadline. It’s also a team that operates squarely in the modern philosophy of shortening games and leaning heavily on relievers. In 2025, Twins relievers threw multiple innings just 109 times. Only the Cubs and Phillies used their bullpen in shorter bursts. If there were ever a roster primed for a bullpen reload, it’s this one. There are reasons for the restraint. Historically, Falvey’s front office has avoided multi-year deals for free agent relievers. Most additions come late in the offseason, on one-year contracts. Given the volatility of bullpen arms, that logic tracks. Pitching is the most expensive commodity on the open market, and the Twins have invested heavily in an “arm barn” designed to produce options internally at a fraction of the cost. There’s also confidence in the current wave of young arms. Just as Griffin Jax and Louis Varland before them, several starting pitching prospects are likely to be converted into relievers. Scroll through the list of arms acquired or already in the system, and it’s almost a certainty that one or more will be asked to handle late-inning duties by season’s end. The Twins will continue to take shots on one-year relievers and waiver claims they believe can be molded into something more. It hasn’t always worked, but keeping long-term money off the bullpen preserves flexibility elsewhere. Still, it’s hard not to feel exhausted by the annual exercise of justifying all of this. From a fan’s perspective, the math is simple: identify the best players and go get them. The Twins’ ownership and front office have chosen a different equation, complete with clearly defined guardrails. And like it or not, they’ll continue operating within them -- come hell, high water, or another quiet winter. View the full article