DiamondCentric

The Royals will look to take a huge step forward this season after finishing 82-80, missing the wild card by five games. The team has made two trades early on, acquiring two depth pieces: center fielder Kameron Misner from the Rays and pitcher Mason Black from the Giants, in exchange for pitcher Logan Martin. The team will look to add an outfield power bat and a back-end starter after losing six players to free agency: reliever Hunter Harvey, outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, utility Adam Frazier, and starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen, catcher Luke Maile, and outfielder Randal Grichuk. With that being said, here are 10 players the Royals should trade/cut 10: Alec Marsh, RHP The Royals drafted Alec Marsh in the second round of the 2019 amateur draft out of Arizona State. In his senior year with the Sun Devils, he put together a 9-4 record with a 3.46 ERA with 99 punchouts. In the minors, he struggled, registering a 5.41 ERA, but had an impressive 11.4 K/9. He made his MLB debut in 2023, registering 74 innings with a 5.92 ERA, .486 xSLG, and .381 WOBA. He’d have a solid season in 2024, appearing in 26 games with a 9-9 record and 4.53 ERA and increasing his run value from -18 to -9 while improving his walk percentage from the bottom 12% to the top 64%. The 27-year-old missed the 2025 season with labrum surgery and isn’t expected to return till the 2027 season. The team is currently on the hook for $820,000 with the addition of Black, and the rise of Noah Cameron could see Marsh moved to a team for cash considerations or a prospect to be named later. 9: Nick Loftin, UTIL Nick Loftin was drafted 32nd overall by the Royals in the 2020 draft out of Baylor. With a contact-oriented approach and solid speed, he quickly rose the ranks in the system, including a breakout 2023 season with the Storm Chasers, slashing .270 with 14 home runs, 56 RBIs, .788 OPS, and drawing 34 walks. He’d make his debut later that season, appearing in 19 games, hitting .323 with 10 RBIs and racking up an OPS+ of 119 and rBAT+ of 124. Since then, he’s struggled at the dish with a 5.3 barrel percentage and 4.7 solid contact percentage. In the last two seasons, he’s hit .199 with five home runs and 34 RBI. However, he’s shown great plate discipline with a 23% chase percentage (5.4% below league average) and an 18% whiff rate (7% below league average), according to BaseballSavant. Loftin is projected to make $3 million in arbitration. With a struggling bat and above-average speed, a change of scenery could wake his silent bat, given his excellent plate discipline. 8: Lucas Erceg, RHP Lucas Erceg has been a reliable arm in a strong Royals bullpen since being acquired from the Royals in 2024 for Mason Bennett and Will Klein. Erceg appeared in 23 games for the Royals, putting up an ERA+ of 144 and finishing in the 82nd percentile in xERA and xwOBA. This season, he appeared in 61 games with an 8-4 record, 2.64 ERA, and two saves. His heater dominated, ranking in the top 8% in fastball evo (97.5) and the top 12% in groundball percentage (52). The 30-year-old is projected to get a $1.25 million raise in arbitration. A cheap contract for a guy who was a consistent arm for the team and had the second-lowest ERA out of the pen behind all-star closer Carlos Estevez. 7: Blake Mitchell, C Blake Mitchell, currently the #2 prospect in the organization, may be the odd man out, as the Royals extended Salvador Perez to a 2-year, $25 million deal, and the recent call-up of the team’s #1 prospect, Carter Jensen, suggests he could be on the trading block. The eighth-overall pick in 2023 has exhibited great plate discipline and power in the minors, sitting at a 55 overall scout rating with 60 power, 50 contact, 70 arm, and 55 fielding. He’s shown the ability to be a five-tool player, as in 486 plate appearances between high-A and Single-A, swiping 26 bases, crushing 18 home runs, and drawing 80 walks. This season, he struggled in high-A, hitting .207 in 169 at-bats with two home runs, 12 RBI, and nine stolen bases. However, he continued to show great plate discipline, drawing 45 walks. In the summer league, he tied for second in walks with 20 and seventh in runs with 20. With the catcher room full, and #9 prospect Ramon Ramirez nipping at his heels. The Royals could listen to offers from teams like the Padres, Rays, and Rangers, who are looking to add a future piece at the position. 6: Relief Pitcher Angel Zerpa Angel Zerpa joined the organization as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2016, where he quickly rose through the ranks and eventually made his MLB debut on September 30, 2021, pitching five innings of two-run ball and allowing only three hits and one walk while fanning four. He didn’t break out until 2024, when he appeared in 60 games in the powder blue. Putting up a 2-0 record and 3.86 ERA. He had career highs in xBA (.249) and xSLG (.396). He placed 30th in groundball percentage at 59.2. This season, Zerpa continued to produce ground balls, posting a 63.7 ground ball rate, placing him sixth in MLB. He saw more success missing bats, setting career highs in K% (21.1), chase% (26.7), and whiff rate (16.4). The 26-year-old could draw strong interest from teams that are looking for young, high-upside pitching, as his asking price is projected to be around $1.25 million. View the full article

On the same day the Jays announced the signing of Dylan Cease to a $210 million deal, GM Ross Atkins was back at it, making another splash in the free agent pitching market, this time signing right-hander Cody Ponce to a three-year, $30 million deal. At first glance, guaranteeing that type of term and money to a 31-year-old that hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2021 is a bit of an eyebrow raiser, but when you take a peek at what Ponce was doing to hitters in the KBO last season, it starts to make some sense. Over 180.2 innings pitched for the Hanwha Eagles, Ponce absolutely dominated. He worked a 1.89 ERA with a strikeout rate of 36.2%. He only gave up 0.5 HR/9 and allowed a hard-hit rate of just 16.7% Those numbers translated to a 17-1 record and led him to win the KBO’s MVP award. Ponce left Major League Baseball for Japan’s NPB after struggling through a pair of seasons in Pittsburgh in 2020 and 2021, but he didn’t immediately flourish overseas. He worked his way through two solid, but not exactly eye-catching, seasons for the NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters with an ERA in the mid-3.00s before signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles for the 2024 season. The 2024 season had to have been pretty disappointing for Ponce. Despite his strikeout and walk rates, hard-hit rate, and FIP remaining similar to those from his two previous NPB seasons, his ERA ballooned to 6.72 over 15 appearances and 12 starts. That’s part of what makes his dominant MVP campaign, at 30 years old, in a new league, so surprising. Ponce must have discovered something in his transition between NPB and the KBO. I have to credit Lance Brozdowski and his article dedicated to Ponce for just about all of the data I can provide in this Ponce breakdown, and if you’re interested in in-depth pitching breakdowns, his Substack is a must-read. Now, back to Ponce. The first thing to look at is his fastball velocity. He averaged 95.5 mph on his four-seamer while maxing out at 98.5 in 2025, up over two miles per hour from the previous season. That jump in velo, paired with Ponce’s impressive extension (he’s 6-foot-6), has to make him a pretty uncomfortable at-bat, and immediately makes it more believable that he can be successful in MLB. The other big change Ponce made was adding a change-up. That’s different from a splitter, but it is still the style of pitch we know the Jays have been enamoured with when targeting and developing pitchers. The change-up averaged about 87.5 mph and produced silly whiff and zone whiff rates of 46% and 39%, respectively. Just think about that for just one more second: 39% of the time that KBO hitters swung at Ponce’s change-up in the strike zone, they missed it. Aside from the fastball/change-up combination, Ponce also throws a cutter and a bigger, slower curveball, as well as flashing a sinker. The ridiculous whiff rates are obviously not going to translate directly against MLB hitters, but they don’t have to be quite that big for Ponce to remain effective, especially if he can keep the contact that he does give up on the softer side. It’s still too early to say how the Jays plan to utilize Ponce. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d expect that’s what the Jays have in mind for him, but the starting rotation is starting to look pretty full. As it lined up before the Ponce addition, the Jays could have run out a rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos, with Eric Lauer in a swing-man role. Throwing Ponce into the mix certainly looks like it causes a logjam in that fifth spot in the rotation. Just for fun, here are FanGraphs's 2026 Steamer projections for Ponce, Berríos, and Lauer, the three guys in the mix for that fifth rotation spot: Pitcher 2026 Projected Starts/IP 2026 Projected ERA 2026 Projected WAR Cody Ponce 26/148 4.08 2.2 José Berríos 28/159 4.52 1.5 Eric Lauer 5/65 (38 relief appearances) 4.27 0.3 Interestingly enough, Ponce outperforms Berríos, if only marginally. These things tend to work themselves out, and there’s never been a team that has had too much starting pitching. Even still, it looks like another move may be on the horizon. Could the Jays try to eat some of the approximately $67 million left on the three years of Berríos’s contract, trade him away, and slide Ponce right into that fifth spot? Or do the Jays foresee Ponce playing a similar role to that which Lauer played in 2025? They could use him as a bullpen piece until they inevitably need an extended stretch of starts due to an injury to one of their other starters. Regardless of the role the Jays end up carving out for Ponce in 2026, this move also shores up the team's rotation depth for 2027 and '28. Gausman and Bieber are both free agents after this season, and Berríos has an opt-out – although he’d need to drastically outperform those projections to even consider taking it. Regardless, it’s so much fun to see the Jays moving so quickly and aggressively early in the offseason, addressing what was clearly their number one priority. View the full article

There are two ways MLB players can be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The first is the annual election conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (“BBWAA”). The second is selection by the Era Committee, formerly the Veterans Committee. Of the 278 former major league players who are members of the Hall of Fame, 117 were elected by the Era/Veterans Committee. The Era Committee will officially announce the election results on December 7, 2025. Concerning the BBWAA’s election, an eligible player’s name must appear on at least 75% of the BBWAA ballots cast each year to become a Hall of Fame member. The BBWAA removes a candidate from future ballots if either the candidate’s name appeared on fewer than five percent of the ballots or the player was on the ballot for 10 years but did not meet the 75% condition. Don Mattingly was first on the BBWAA’s ballot in 2001 and appeared on 28.2% of the ballots. Under the then-rules, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, did not meet the 75% threshold, and was removed from future ballots. In 2015, Mattingly’s last year of eligibility, his name appeared on 9.1% of the ballots. In 2018 and 2020, Mattingly was eligible for Hall of Fame consideration by the Veterans Committee but did not receive a vote in either year. In 2022, the Hall of Fame renamed the Veterans Committee the Era Committee and split the ballots into two time periods: the Contemporary Baseball Era (post-1979) and the Classic Baseball Era (pre-1980). Mattingly received 50% of the 16 votes in the 2023 Contemporary Era ballot. He is on the 2026 ballot. Mattingly played 14 seasons for the New York Yankees (1982 to 1995) and posted a 42.4 bWAR and a 124 wRC+. He was considered by many to be one of the best defensive first basemen of his generation. His notable achievements include the following: The 1985 AL MVP. Also, he finished fifth, second, and seventh in the 1984, 1986, and 1987 AL MVP voting. Nine American League Gold Glove Awards (1985-1989 and 1991-1994). Three Silver Sluggers (1985-1987). During his MLB career, the Yankees failed to qualify for the postseason from 1982 to 1993; MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs due to the players’ strike. However, in his one postseason (1995), Mattingly posted a 200 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances. Starting in the late 1980s, back issues plagued Mattingly, and his power declined significantly. From 1982 to 1987, Mattingly generated a 0.212 ISO, much higher than MLB’s non-pitcher 0.137 average. However, for the 1988-1995 period, Mattingly’s 0.164 ISO was just 27 points higher than the MLB non-pitcher 0.137 average. Between 1982 and 1987, Mattingly’s wRC+ was 146, and it was 109 for the balance of his career. A valuable tool to evaluate whether a player has earned a Hall of Fame membership is three bWAR-based metrics: bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS. bWAR does not require explanation, but WAR7 and JAWS do. One of the limitations of career bWAR is that a Hall of Fame candidate may have generated a high bWAR because they played many seasons. Since a Hall of Famer should be one of the best at their position over multiple seasons, WAR7, a player’s seven-highest bWAR seasons, is informative because it measures dominance across many seasons. JAWS, developed by Jay Jaffe, is the average of bWAR and WAR7, and it is instructive because it balances these two metrics (bWAR and WAR7). Jaffe, now of FanGraphs, wrote an excellent article about Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy. It is the bWAR-related metrics that hurt Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy. In addition to Mattingly, Table 1 shows the top 15 career bWAR marks of first basemen whose MLB career began after 1979. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR 7, and JAWS numbers are noticeably below the average of the Hall of Famers on the list (Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Fred McGriff, and David Ortiz). Of these Hall of Fame members, McGriff is the only player voted in by the Era Committee. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS stats are 42.4, 35.7, and 39.1, which rank 21st, 17th, and 20th, respectively. Concerning the all-time Hall of Fame list, there are 25 first basemen. Their average bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS are 65.0, 42.0, and 53.5, respectively. Furthermore, among all first basemen, Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS ranks 45th, 34th, and 40th, respectively. There is an argument that, because an injury curtailed Mattingly’s performance significantly and shortened his career, one should judge his career in that light. Accordingly, I present Hall of Fame pitcher, Sandy Koufax. From a performance perspective, Koufax’s career is nearly the mirror image of Mattingly’s. Whereas Mattingly’s first half of his 14-year career accounts for 69% of his career bWAR, Koufax generated 87% of his career pitching bWAR over the last six seasons of his 12-year career. Despite an arthritic elbow, which he linked to jamming his throwing arm on the basepaths in a 1964 game against the Braves, Koufax was dominant in 1965 and 1966 (18.4 bWAR). However, arthritic pain and concerns about the health effects of painkillers led Koufax to retire at 30 after the 1966 season. At the conclusion of the 1971 season, Koufax’s 48.9 bWAR and 46.0 WAR7 were below the then-average Hall of Fame pitcher’s 66.4 bWAR and 48.3 WAR7. Koufax was on the BBWAA ballot for the first time for the 1972 Hall of Fame Class; his name appeared on 86.9% of the ballots cast, and he was elected to the Hall of Fame. When Koufax was elected to the Hall of Fame, the Wins Above Replacement model did not exist, at least publicly. For many writers, one metric they consider is pitcher wins. At the conclusion of the 1971 campaign, the average win total of the Hall of Fame pitchers was 246, which Koufax fell short of (165). However, during the last six years of his career, Koufax recorded 129 wins, or 21.5 wins per season. I guess that BBWAA writers used the 21.5 wins per season as evidence of Koufax’s dominance in the last six years of his career. The Koufax historical review is a long-winded journey back to Mattingly. Was Mattingly Hall-of-Fame-worthy dominant before injuries either curtailed performance or shortened his career? The answer is no. As Table 2 shows, Koufax was dominant at his peak. In his four and five-best bWAR campaigns, he posted 9.1 and 8.4 per-season marks. That is dominant. However, if one looks at Mattingly’s comparable periods, his per-season bWAR figures are 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. Mattingly’s best years were impressive but not elite enough to overcome his 21st career bWAR mark among post-1979 era first basemen. Koufax’s four, five, and six-year peaks were more than enough to justify his induction into the Hall of Fame, despite lower career, wins, bWAR, and JAWS numbers. Circling back to Table 1, Mattingly’s WAR7 is like those of Ortiz and McGriff. So, should he not be in the Hall of Fame? For two reasons, the answer is no. First, the career bWAR marks of Ortiz and McGriff are at least 10 units higher than Mattingly’s. Accordingly, Mattingly’s peak years were not dominant enough to overcome his career bWAR shortfall. Second, Hall of Fame membership should be exclusive and reserved for those who were clearly the best of their era at their position. In other words, the entrance bar should be set high. The Hall of Fame candidacies of Ortiz and McGriff were marginal. The bar should not be lowered further to grant Hall of Fame access to Mattingly. The Last Word Early in his career, Mattingly was among the best at his position. No doubt injuries limited his performance and shortened his career. However, his best seven seasons rank 17th among first basemen in the post-1979 era. Compared to a player like Koufax, whose career was also shortened partially due to injury, Mattingly’s best seasons were not as dominant. The threshold to be a Hall of Famer should be set high. Accordingly, like many players, Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame. View the full article

On The Offishial Show, Ely Sussman provides context behind the amusing idea that the Marlins could use outfielder Griffin Conine at first base in the future. View the full article

As sample sizes go, 7 2/3 innings for a pitcher is nothing. We know that no useful projections can be made from that. But sometimes, a team can still see the future during those limited moments -- if it swaps out the data microscope for the long-lamented eye test. Take the Padres and Bradgley Rodriguez, for example. Based on what the team saw from the rookie right-hander last September, it ought to feel confident that he can contribute to the big-league bullpen full time as soon as next March. In turn, it can avoid spending big on a middle reliever this winter and focus on the club's biggest needs: rotation, catcher, and the right side of the infield. Bradgley Rodriguez's career history It doesn't take a spreadsheet to determine that Rodriguez has potential. His triple-digit fastball is all anyone needs to see. But if they need more proof, they can also gaze at his power changeup. Those two pitches earned him an early-season promotion from Double-A to the Show as a 21-year-old. The Venezuela native made his MLB debut on May 31 against the Pirates and pitched well (1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, stranded both of his inherited runners). Three days later, the Padres optioned him to Triple-A El Paso to make room for right-hander Ryan Bergert. Prior to his call-up, Rodriguez was No. 9 in Padres Mission's ranking of the team's top prospects. The final sentence of the scouting report read: "His control is still a work in progress, but his high strikeout rate indicates significant upside as a power pitcher." When Rodriguez returned to San Diego in September, that upside shot way up. True, there were bumps, like the one he put on Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez's elbow with a 100 mph heater in New York. Rodriguez hit three batters total last season, with each pitch coming from his arm side, That's a sure sign of command issues. But there also was that wild game against the Brewers at Petco Park on the night of Sept. 22. Rodriguez entered in the 11th inning after the teams had traded runs in the 10th. He got three ground balls and, thanks to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, three outs in a scoreless frame. Minutes later, the Padres were walking off the Crew to clinch a playoff berth. Rodriguez was credited with his first MLB win. The outing was a showcase of the youngster's grit—he did not have an easy road to the majors. He had to fight to save his career as he missed the 2022 and 2023 seasons with elbow problems. Less than two years after returning to action, he was succeeding in a high-leverage role in a playoff race. Days later, Rodriguez was auditioning for the Padres' Wild Card Series roster. On the final weekend of the regular season, he made two relief appearances against the Diamondbacks. Each time, he was the first man out of the 'pen in the middle innings. He responded with five strikeouts and one walk over 2 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres, of course, put him on the WCS roster, but he didn't appear in the three games against the Cubs. Despite that, Rodriguez carries all of that momentum into 2026. He's not your typical 22-year-old pitcher, at least in terms of résumé. Bradgley Rodriguez's statistics, outlook Rodriguez's final 2025 numbers for the Padres, small though they are, should leave everyone believing that he can be a difference-maker next year: Category Rodriguez Opponents' OPS .523 Strikeout percentage 29.0 Walk percentage 9.7* Average fastball velocity 98.3 Strike percentage 59.4 Ground ball rate 56.3 Inherited runners stranded 3 of 4 * Includes one intentional walk. Sources: MLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs The Padres' top four right-handed relievers heading into the Winter Meetings are Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Adam, though, may begin next season on the injured list as he continues to rehab the quad tear he suffered Sept. 1. MLB.com reported last month that he is expected to resume throwing "in the coming weeks." After Rodriguez, the other righty options on the 40-man roster are: Jhony Brito: Missed all of last season recovering from an elbow brace procedure. Garrett Hawkins: Added to the 40-man last month to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Bryan Hoeing: Optioned to Triple-A last July after making seven appearances for San Diego. Is more of a swingman/bulk reliever. Alex Jacob: Posted a 5.13 ERA in 33 1/3 innings but finished the season strong. Ron Marinaccio: Finished last season in the minors. Miguel Mendez: See Hawkins. The left side features Adrian Morejon (assuming he's not converted back into a starter), Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart (our Randy Holt recently did a deep dive into Hart's potential as a reliever). Figure three of those pitchers make the Opening Day bullpen—that would leave one open spot in an eight-man unit, although it's more likely to be two spots with Adam questionable. Rodriguez has a clear path to securing one of them. The Padres will add depth arms in the offseason, but with Rodriguez around, they shouldn't feel obligated to spend a few million or trade a prospect for a middle reliever. After all, they've already seen that he has the tools to do the job. View the full article

As sample sizes go, 7 2/3 innings for a pitcher is nothing. We know that no useful projections can be made from that. But sometimes, a team can still see the future during those limited moments -- if it swaps out the data microscope for the long-lamented eye test. Take the Padres and Bradgley Rodriguez, for example. Based on what the team saw from the rookie right-hander last September, it ought to feel confident that he can contribute to the big-league bullpen full time as soon as next March. In turn, it can avoid spending big on a middle reliever this winter and focus on the club's biggest needs: rotation, catcher, and the right side of the infield. Bradgley Rodriguez's career history It doesn't take a spreadsheet to determine that Rodriguez has potential. His triple-digit fastball is all anyone needs to see. But if they need more proof, they can also gaze at his power changeup. Those two pitches earned him an early-season promotion from Double-A to the Show as a 21-year-old. The Venezuela native made his MLB debut on May 31 against the Pirates and pitched well (1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, stranded both of his inherited runners). Three days later, the Padres optioned him to Triple-A El Paso to make room for right-hander Ryan Bergert. Prior to his call-up, Rodriguez was No. 9 in Padres Mission's ranking of the team's top prospects. The final sentence of the scouting report read: "His control is still a work in progress, but his high strikeout rate indicates significant upside as a power pitcher." When Rodriguez returned to San Diego in September, that upside shot way up. True, there were bumps, like the one he put on Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez's elbow with a 100 mph heater in New York. Rodriguez hit three batters total last season, with each pitch coming from his arm side, That's a sure sign of command issues. But there also was that wild game against the Brewers at Petco Park on the night of Sept. 22. Rodriguez entered in the 11th inning after the teams had traded runs in the 10th. He got three ground balls and, thanks to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, three outs in a scoreless frame. Minutes later, the Padres were walking off the Crew to clinch a playoff berth. Rodriguez was credited with his first MLB win. The outing was a showcase of the youngster's grit—he did not have an easy road to the majors. He had to fight to save his career as he missed the 2022 and 2023 seasons with elbow problems. Less than two years after returning to action, he was succeeding in a high-leverage role in a playoff race. Days later, Rodriguez was auditioning for the Padres' Wild Card Series roster. On the final weekend of the regular season, he made two relief appearances against the Diamondbacks. Each time, he was the first man out of the 'pen in the middle innings. He responded with five strikeouts and one walk over 2 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres, of course, put him on the WCS roster, but he didn't appear in the three games against the Cubs. Despite that, Rodriguez carries all of that momentum into 2026. He's not your typical 22-year-old pitcher, at least in terms of résumé. Bradgley Rodriguez's statistics, outlook Rodriguez's final 2025 numbers for the Padres, small though they are, should leave everyone believing that he can be a difference-maker next year: Category Rodriguez Opponents' OPS .523 Strikeout percentage 29.0 Walk percentage 9.7* Average fastball velocity 98.3 Strike percentage 59.4 Ground ball rate 56.3 Inherited runners stranded 3 of 4 * Includes one intentional walk. Sources: MLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs The Padres' top four right-handed relievers heading into the Winter Meetings are Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Adam, though, may begin next season on the injured list as he continues to rehab the quad tear he suffered Sept. 1. MLB.com reported last month that he is expected to resume throwing "in the coming weeks." After Rodriguez, the other righty options on the 40-man roster are: Jhony Brito: Missed all of last season recovering from an elbow brace procedure. Garrett Hawkins: Added to the 40-man last month to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Bryan Hoeing: Optioned to Triple-A last July after making seven appearances for San Diego. Is more of a swingman/bulk reliever. Alex Jacob: Posted a 5.13 ERA in 33 1/3 innings but finished the season strong. Ron Marinaccio: Finished last season in the minors. Miguel Mendez: See Hawkins. The left side features Adrian Morejon (assuming he's not converted back into a starter), Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart (our Randy Holt recently did a deep dive into Hart's potential as a reliever). Figure three of those pitchers make the Opening Day bullpen—that would leave one open spot in an eight-man unit, although it's more likely to be two spots with Adam questionable. Rodriguez has a clear path to securing one of them. The Padres will add depth arms in the offseason, but with Rodriguez around, they shouldn't feel obligated to spend a few million or trade a prospect for a middle reliever. After all, they've already seen that he has the tools to do the job. View the full article

One of the expected names added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5, Hendry Mendez is someone the Twins are banking on for the long term. But given his poor outfield defense, will he be expected to remain at a corner position, or do the Twins seem willing to try him out at first base for the long term? View the full article

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday that Byron Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. He and Kiley McDaniel rank Buxton as being the fifth-best player likely to be moved, and figure he’s got about a one-in-three chance of heading to camp wearing a new uniform. This is, naturally, not great news for Twins fans despite the bread crumbs leading us here over the past couple of months. Obviously, the Twins trading their best hitter (by a wide margin) would send very clear signals about their intention to contend in the near future. However, such a move would be a way to further stock an already strong farm system and fully commit to a youth movement. Now, this list I’m about to reveal is not comprehensive. A player of Buxton’s caliber would make every team better. However, five teams seem like natural fits in terms of need and tradeable commodities. I’ll rank them in order of who I see as the best matches. Of course, none of this means a Buxton trade will happen. He can say no at any time, and if he does desire a trade, his landing spot might be his own choice, as much as the Twins'. Without further ado, let’s get into it. Los Angeles Dodgers Look, the Dodgers are seemingly always the odds-on favorites for any prestige free agent, so why not for a star slugger coming off a career year and down-ballot MVP votes? For a team as stacked as the two-time defending champions, the outfield is a rare opportunity to improve. World Series hero Andy Pages is legit at the plate and in center field, but corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández is coming off a down year, as is Tommy Edman. Both are on the wrong side of 30, so it’s entirely possible both are experiencing age-related decline. Edman is also better (defensively) on the dirt, but played about a quarter of his games in the grass out of necessity. Edman is also a question mark for 2026, as he’s coming off ankle surgery. Buxton would be an upgrade in the corners, and would make their lineup that much deadlier. He probably isn't ready to move out of center field yet, but he has the cachet to prompt them to move Pages to a corner instead, at least temporarily. Beyond that, let’s be honest with ourselves: is there a great player the Dodgers don’t swing hard for? Further, they also have a strong farm. MLB Pipeline has them ranked first overall, with no fewer than seven top-100 guys and good depth beyond that. Assuming Buxton would net two top-100 prospects in any deal, it would be easy to construct a package that could make sense. Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies need right-handed power badly, and the Phillies beat writer for The Athletic identified Buxton as a target. The fit is clear, and a lot of boxes are checked. The Twins have recent history with the Phillies as trade partners, and are certainly familiar with their farm system after dealing both Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader to Philadelphia in July. Bader and old friend Max Kepler are both free agents, and the Phils could lose Kyle Schwarber, as well. Nick Castellanos, the Phillies’ everyday right fielder in 2025, was a brutal defender at the position. As it stands currently, top prospect Justin Crawford is set to crack the Opening Day lineup in the grass. Adding Buxton would allow the Phillies to give Crawford a ramp, rather than hoping he immediately hits. Buxton would fill key gaps for them, and would immediately improve their roster both offensively and defensively. Working against them: their prospect pool got shallower at the deadline, as the Twins took two of their best prospects. They still have three prospects in the top 100, and all are high-end, but the Phillies' front office may be loath to deal more from that pool. Cincinnati Reds In 2025, the Reds ranked 19th in baseball in OPS. Additionally, they don’t have a single outfielder who's much more than an average hitter, and all of their outfielders cost the Reds runs compared to average defenders. Noelvi Marte, while still young, has been replacement-level for his career. Austin Hays is a free agent, and TJ Friedl can hit a bit but isn’t special. Buxton would be a clear upgrade in center and would improve their offense by leaps and bounds. The Reds have the prospect capital to have build a trade package, with six players on Pipeline's Top-100 list—including a couple of strong shortstop prospects who are a few years out, likely aligning with the Twins' next true contention window. There is some fairly recent trade history between the two teams, as the Twins traded for both Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle in 2022. Atlanta This could be Buxton’s preference, as he is from Baxley, Georgia, a small town three and a half hours away from Truist Park. His parents and extended family still live there, and he spends his offseason months there, as well. I would assume that this would be Buxton’s preferred digs, if he does decide he wants to go. From a baseball standpoint, Atlanta’s hitting was average-ish in 2025, ranking 13th by OPS. Michael Harris II is a good defender in center, but his bat hasn’t played in a couple of years. Jurickson Profar and Ronald Acuña Jr. man the corners right now, but both are subpar defenders in the grass. However, both hit well enough to spend a lot of time at DH on days when Drake Baldwin is catching, which could be most of the time with Sean Murphy recovering from hip surgery. Trading for Buxton would allow Atlanta to dramatically upgrade their outfield defense and their offense at the same time. Really, the biggest obstacle for Atlanta is the relative weakness of their farm system, ranked 28th in MLB.com's midseason ranking due to their lack of future impact at the top. With just two top-100 players (both pitchers), it could be tough to find a package that would fit, unless the Twins were able to find a match on a challenge trade. However, that doesn’t seem like it would fit their intentions, if they are trying to move Buxton at all. Maybe the Twins would take a couple of pre-arbitration guys and some lower-ranked prospects, but I don’t see the perfect fit. Atlanta does have good young pitchers, too, but many of them have run into injury problems. New York Mets The Mets traded their everyday left fielder, Brandon Nimmo, for Marcus Semien last week. They don’t have a clear internal option to replace him. Tyrone Taylor, their incumbent primary center fielder, has been a below-average hitter since 2022. He’s a fine defender, but you know who isn’t? Juan Soto, who logged 157 games in the grass in 2025. He should be a DH. Trading for Buxton could make that a reality for them, probably singlehandedly earning them an extra win or two on defense alone. Further, the Mets are unlikely to be big spenders in free agency, so a trade for a great player at an affordable price could be especially attractive to them. They have four top-50 prospects, a mix of pitchers, outfielders, and infielders, creating another scenario where the Twins would likely have options to choose from. Hopefully, a Buxton trade does not come to pass, for a host of reasons, including a lot of stuff like this. However, knowing that 2026 is seemingly not a competitive season and 2027 could be tough, too, if the Twins are able to at least gain significant value for their homegrown star, the next window could arrive sooner and be likelier to be successful. View the full article

Alex and Maddie celebrate the one-year anniversary of the Talk Sox Podcast by analyzing why Cole Ragans makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. They then talk through whether the team is overvaluing Jarren Duran and discuss whether he should be traded over Wilyer Abreu. Finally, they talk through the latest news, connecting the team to Ketel Marte. Thanks to everyone who has made this last year a success here on the Talk Sox Podcast! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View the full article

Brewer Fanatic recently examined Milwaukee's positional depth at third base and shortstop. Readers can safely conclude that the current infield reserves are insufficient for a playoff-caliber roster in 2026. One more capable veteran could help prevent the offense from fading in October. One strong candidate to be that veteran addition is Zach McKinstry, Detroit's super utilityman. McKinstry's career was unremarkable until last season. He had his best year ever in 2025, though, producing a .771 OPS while playing competent defense at every infield and corner outfield position. This performance earned him his first All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger award. Zach McKinstry, Performance Percentiles, 2023-25 Season Batting Runs Fielding Runs Baserunning Runs Bat Speed Arm Strength Sprint Speed LA Sweet Spot % 2023 4 74 82 7 96 80 80 2024 20 70 92 7 58 79 87 2025 44 46 91 4 90 75 96 McKinstry runs the bases well, has excellent arm strength and frequently hits line drives and flyballs with launch angles that are favorable for hits and home runs. At the same time, he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard in terms of exit velocity and bat speed. Furthermore, it is worth noting McKinstry's extreme home/road splits in 2025. He had a .991 OPS at Comerica Park and .544 OPS everywhere else. McKinstry, a left-handed batter, turns 31 years old in April. He has two years of team control and is projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration this offseason. This could be a terrific fit for Milwaukee. Their top position-player prospects are unlikely to contribute in 2026, and McKinstry can provide needed depth through 2027. Give Infielders a Break Pat Murphy rarely rested his primary infielders in 2025. It was not until later in the year that Anthony Seigler would earn an occasional start in place of Caleb Durbin. The Brewers' offense ran out of gas in the postseason. An extra day of rest for infielders a couple of times per month could help avert a late-season collapse or a postseason fade. It was clear that Milwaukee did not believe it had a viable alternative to starting Joey Ortiz at shortstop in 2025. Players like Vinny Capra, Oliver Dunn, Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio have not been legitimate threats to become everyday players anywhere on the infield. McKinstry is good enough to compete for at-bats with nearly anyone in the lineup. Insurance Policy for Outfielders The last thing Milwaukee needs is another left-handed-hitting outfielder. However, McKinstry has reverse splits: he’s hit better against left-handed pitching throughout his career, in limited appearances. He managed an .854 OPS against left-handed pitching (119 plate appearances) and a .746 OPS against right-handed pitching (392 PA) in 2025. Murphy doesn’t seem to mind keeping a few left-handed bats in the lineup, even against difficult left-handed pitching. McKinstry Isaac Collins was terrific through August, but he fell out of favor after slumping to a .664 OPS in September and October. Collins also went hitless in nine postseason at-bats. It is unclear which version of Collins the Brewers can expect in 2026. Garrett Mitchell should be healthy in time for spring training. If Mitchell becomes injured again, McKinstry would fill in nicely in left field with Jackson Chourio heading back to center field. Blake Perkins consistently provides Gold Glove-caliber defense and a .647 OPS, doing exactly that over the past two seasons. Brandon Lockridge figures to be a useful fifth outfielder, if that is more than faint praise. McKinstry doesn’t profile well in center field, but with Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick each able to play there and Perkins as the defensive ace for the spot, he doesn’t need to. He can shield the team against another injury to Mitchell, and filter into the lineup against both lefties and righties to spell each of the regulars across the grass. Christian Yelich played in only 19 games as a left fielder in 2025. At this point, it seems unlikely that Yelich will spend meaningful time in the outfield. What Would it Take to Acquire McKinstry? The underlying point of this article is that Milwaukee should consider trading from its pitching depth to provide affordable reinforcement for its position players. McKinstry could be an intriguing target. McKinstry doesn’t immediately strike one as being worth a high-leverage reliever in trade. If the Brewers could receive 500 plate appearances from a .750 OPS utility player who plays five positions, though, that might be more valuable than another 47 innings of relief from Trevor Megill. Megill will play his age-32 season in 2026. Like McKinstry, he has two years of team control remaining. His performance could reasonably be expected to regress in 2026, and he dealt with arm trouble at the end of 2025. It is equally possible for McKinstry to revert back to a 1-WAR player. Even in his breakout campaign, he only had an 87 DRC+ (where 100 is average, and higher is better), according to Baseball Prospectus. His track record of success in the majors is short, and some of it might be illusory. Even so, McKinstry has the potential to make the 2026 Brewers a more competitive team by being a credible short-term replacement for anyone on the field. He might cost them a strong prospect or an important relief arm, but he’s a tremendous baserunner; he might have power upside that has been hidden by the spacious Comerica Park; and the Brewers like patient hitters whom they can optimize with even better swing-decision training. The fit could be too good to pass up. View the full article

While there was room for discussion around the extent of it, we know that the Chicago Cubs attempted to sign third baseman Alex Bregman last winter. He eventually landed in Boston, though an opt-out in his contract has him back on the free agent market. The Cubs have already been connected, and such a signing could have a bearing on what shape their infield takes for the remainder of this offseason. That's in an entirely hypothetical world, however, and we have little reason to think the chances of a Bregman signing are good at this point. As such, we continue to operate under the assumption that the team's infield will look much the same as it did for most of 2025: Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya behind the plate, and Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Matt Shaw occupying their spots around the remainder of the dirt. At the same time, third base does offer a position of intrigue. Shaw demonstrated improvement as the season wore on, but stretches throughout the regular season and into October showed us that as good as he can be on the defensive side, his offense remains a work in progress. Given that, it might behoove the Cubs to explore more of a safety net than they had at any point in 2025. The team's failed pursuit of Bregman left them without a true alternative to Shaw. When he struggled out of the gate (61 wRC+ in April), Craig Counsell was forced to reckon with the absence of a suitable supplement. A collection of Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez, Justin Turner, and Gage Workman filled space both during Shaw's time back in Iowa and other parts of the year. Only Turner finished the year still in the organization, with trade deadline acquisition Willi Castro offering more depth at the position in the season's final two months. Turner and Castro hit free agency this winter, with no clear indicator that either would (or should) be back. That means that the Cubs—who finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR from third base in 2025—are going to once again rely on Shaw realizing his next stages of development. That's easier said than done, considering some of the areas of concern around him. Shaw was far better in the second half of 2025 than in the first. His line after the All-Star break read .258/.317/.522 with a 130 wRC+, versus a .198/.276/.280 (60 wRC+) slash from the first half. The increase in power output is notable, as Shaw was able to elevate at a rate 11 percentage points above his flyball rate from the first half (46.0 percent). The way he closed the year, however, leaves a much more muddled picture than the splits imply. For one, Shaw's strikeout rate was up about 4.5 percentage points in the second half (23.9% overall), while his walk rate was down (8.3%). His swing-and-miss rate in September was his second-highest in an individual month, with the 25.5% whiff rate trailing only April (30.8%). His hard-hit rate, which rose steadily as the months wore on, cratered in September, with a 22.0% rate checking in 15 percentage points below his August peak. It all carried into October, where he notched only a pair of hits in 15 plate appearances and provided his only value via the walk (of which he had five). That's not to say that Shaw is destined to have another volatile season in 2026. We'll likely continue to see the ups and downs associated with natural development. We just don't know what the peaks and valleys could look like at this point. That's all the more reason for the Cubs to pursue a legitimate safety net for Shaw this time around. The goal with such an addition isn't necessarily to prepare for a worst-case scenario. Instead, it's to supplement Shaw in those moments where you don't love a matchup or he needs an opportunity to reset for a day or two. As such, it's not about signing or acquiring a pure third baseman as said safety net. You're looking for a versatile player who can bring at least one particular skill, while not being a total loss filling in at third base defensively—especially given what you lose with Shaw's glove when he's on the bench. Consider someone like Luis Urías, who has a career walk rate around 10% and is coming off a year in which he struck out a career-low 13.6 percent of the time. Former Cub Ildemaro Vargas doesn't offer the same level of contact ability, but he hit well enough last year (85 wRC+) and was perfectly average in a small sample at third to offer at least an upgrade over how the team supplemented third base last season. Miguel Andujar could provide a little bit more in the way of power and contact ability, even if his ability to draw walks and his defensive shortcomings don't entirely fit the bill. None are exciting options in a thin free-agent class this side of Bregman, but they could at least provide the type of supplementation that's needed as Shaw continues his development. That's something that the Cubs need to prioritize when they build the bench. Swanson and Hoerner are going to provide you with playing time volume and established skill sets. The same largely goes for Busch, even if the team maintains a desire to protect him against certain left-handed arms. It's not just about acquiring a player who can fill in as a body at third base, either. It's about a clear offensive skill set, so that the lineup can hold together when Shaw's development is at the wrong end of its volatility. View the full article

The Twins have spent the last few seasons trying to convince the baseball world that their competitive window is still open. Their message has always depended on having their two cornerstone stars in the middle of everything. That plan took its first major hit when Carlos Correa agreed to waive his no-trade clause and return to Houston at this summer’s trade deadline. The ripple effects from that decision may now be touching Byron Buxton in ways the Twins hoped they would never face. Correa’s exit made all the sense in the world. Once the idea of Houston crept back into his head, it was almost impossible to uproot. His family is in the area. The Astros offer a more straightforward path to October, even if they fell short in 2025. The move to third base was expected to lessen the wear and tear on his body, after years of problems with his lower back and plantar fasciitis. It made too much sense, and when a player of Correa’s stature sees a version of his future that looks brighter elsewhere, it is only natural to follow it. The seed was planted, and it grew until there was no stopping it. Minnesota told itself that this was a singular situation. Correa was unique. This was not a sign of something bigger. Now, cracks in that belief have started to show. Earlier this week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Buxton has emerged as one of the biggest trade candidates of the winter. That alone is jarring, but the real noise came from Passan’s line that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause, and not just for Atlanta, the team he watched growing up in Georgia. Buxton has not confirmed this publicly, and until he speaks, there will be speculation on how genuine that willingness truly is. Still, even the possibility marks a notable shift. This is a player who has repeatedly said he wants to be in Minnesota for the long haul and has long been viewed as fiercely loyal to the only big-league organization he has ever known. Last month, I wrote about how the Pohlads may have pushed Buxton to break his moral code, and perhaps that is still true, but Correa’s exit may also have pointed him to greener pastures. It's not hard to understand why that loyalty may be softening. Buxton is coming off arguably the best season of his career, and he looks and feels healthy heading into the offseason for a second consecutive year. He knows exactly how short an athlete’s window can be, and he is undoubtedly aware of the current state of the Twins. Their payroll is dropping. Their roster faces more questions than answers. Their long-term outlook is cloudy, at best. Then, he looks at Correa. He sees a close friend and former teammate, thriving in a competitive environment with real October expectations. He sees a player who freed himself to chase wins, stability, and long-term relevance. That image can be powerful. It can plant the same idea that once took hold of Correa. And if the idea is truly in Buxton’s mind, the Twins may not be able to root it out. That is the uncomfortable reality for Minnesota. Correa’s departure was not simply one star leaving. It may have opened the door to another star reconsidering his loyalty. If the Twins can't show Buxton a future where contention is more than a hopeful projection, they risk watching their franchise centerpiece walk the same path Correa did. The Twins believed Correa’s exit was an isolated storm, but it may have been the first breeze carrying seeds of doubt into their clubhouse. Buxton has always been the player they trusted to anchor their future, yet even the most loyal stars can start to question where their path leads. If Minnesota cannot show him a future that blooms into real contention (rather than more uncertainty), those seeds may grow into a weed that will spread throughout the organization. Did Correa’s exit push Buxton toward the door? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

This time last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were in the midst of determining what 2025 would look like. Was it time to go all in? Or start rebuilding? Negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were stalling, and the front office was trying to put forward a brave face. They were adamant that the 74-win 2024 season was an anomaly. Fast-forward 365 days, and Jays are talking like a team that understands that the future is now. The team heads into the 2026 season with a singular mission: to finish what they started in 2025. After a 94-win campaign that culminated in a heartbreaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the seventh game of the World Series, the Jays have doubled down on their commitment to winning now. This is not a rebuilding year, nor a transitional phase; it’s an all-in push for a championship. The front office is showing a willingness to spend aggressively, even at the cost of crossing the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold. With a payroll projected north of $264 million, the Blue Jays are firmly entrenched in the second tier of CBT penalties. For a franchise that was literally inches from winning the World Series (for the first time since 1993), the road to a championship is similar to that of the last 30 years. Pay now, win now. The big question mark this offseason is Bo Bichette. His 2025 season demonstrated that he was back to form as a hard-hitting middle-of-the-lineup hitter. Even on one leg in the World Series, he nearly helped the team win the series. While the Jays remain in the mix to re-sign him, rumors have swirled about potential pivots to Kyle Tucker or Japanese free agent Munetaka Murakami if Bichette departs. Either move would reshape the lineup and signal Toronto’s willingness to think outside the box. It is unlikely that any or all of the following will return in 2026: Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Ty France, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. However, the Jays have internal depth and financial flexibility to handle their departures. The 2026 40-man roster is building up to be an interesting blend of established players, high-priced free agents, and emerging prospects. It’s a team built for a division that continues to be tough. Here’s how the roster is coming together and what it means for 2026. Projected Lineup Assuming Bichette returns, the Jays’ 2026 starting lineup would look something like this: George Springer (DH) Bo Bichette (SS) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) Anthony Santander (LF) Alejandro Kirk (C) Ernie Clement (3B) Daulton Varsho (CF) Addison Barger (RF) Andrés Giménez (2B) Bench options include Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, and Nathan Lukes, offering flexibility and matchup advantages. Starting Rotation Toronto’s rotation will be one of the best in the AL East next season: Kevin Gausman Dylan Cease Shane Bieber Trey Yesavage José Berríos Depth options include Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, and minor leaguer Ricky Tiedemann, ensuring the Jays can weather injuries without a significant drop-off. By projected fWAR, Toronto’s rotation ranks second in the AL East (12.7), trailing only Boston (14.3). Bullpen Outlook The bullpen remains a work in progress. The Blue Jays agreed to terms with right-handed Cody Ponce on December 2, though it's unclear what his role will be. It is also unclear how he will fit into the 40-man roster as someone will need to be removed. Brandon Little, Justin Bruihl or Lázaro Estrada are most likely to be traded or designated for assignment to make room. Yimi García Louis Varland Braydon Fisher Yariel Rodríguez Jeff Hoffman Eric Lauer Mason Fluharty Brandon Little Tommy Nance Paxton Schultz Lázaro Estrada Justin Bruihl Angel Bastardo Cody Ponce The Jays have been rumoured to be exploring options, including free agents Edwin Díaz and Pete Fairbanks. Although the team doesn’t have a big repository of top prospects in the minors, there has been talk of potential trades. Many of the trade options hinge on whether the Jays can re-sign Bichette. If not, they’ll be seeking an infielder and perhaps more pitching depth. Catcher Alejandro Kirk Tyler Heineman Kirk and Heineman are slated to return behind the plate in 2026. The Jays tendered the switch-hitting Heineman a contract to prevent him from becoming a free agent. The third catcher on the Jays’ 40-man roster is Brandon Valenzuela, who was acquired last season in a trade with the San Diego Padres for Will Wagner. At the time, the 24-year-old switch-hitter was the 26th-ranked prospect in the San Diego system. Infield Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Andrés Giménez Ernie Clement Addison Barger Leo Jiménez Depending on Bichette, there won’t be a lot of changes here. The Jays may try to talk Bichette into transitioning to second, or not. Barger and Schneider will serve as backups in the infield and outfield to allow for rest days. If Bichette doesn’t re-sign, then the infield will most likely need to add a piece via trade or free agency. Technically, a healthy Santander would roam right field, enabling Barger to play the infield and shift Clement to second with Giménez at short. Light-hitting Leo Jiménez, who saw limited action last season, could be called up in case of injury. Outfield The Jays have a surplus of MLB-worthy outfielders. This could support trading one or more to address the team’s infield or relief pitching needs. Jonatan Clase Joey Loperfido Nathan Lukes Anthony Santander Davis Schneider George Springer Myles Straw Daulton Varsho Addison Barger (listed as an infielder on the roster) Prospects to Watch The Jays’ farm system ranks amongst the top half of all MLB systems. The meteoric rise of Trey Yasavage is not the norm, but the Jays do have several players to keep an eye on: Arjun Nimmala (SS) Infielder with plenty of tools, but early in development. Projected to get to the Majors by 2028. JoJo Parker (OF) Power-speed combo, could debut late in 2026, but more likely in 2029. Gage Stanifer (RHP) pitched in Double-A last season. Probably two years away from the Majors. Ricky Tiedemann (LHP) Faced numerous injuries over his brief career, but has top-level stuff. RJ Schreck (OF) Roamed the outfield last season in Triple-A. Bit of a logjam at the major league level, so might be traded, move up with Lukes, Straw, or Barger, or dealt. These prospects provide both insurance and trade capital for a team in win-now mode. The 2026 Toronto Blue Jays are being built to win. The big question mark is Bo Bichette. If he chooses to walk, the Jays can use those dollars to add pieces via free agency or trade. Baseball is unpredictable, and the margin for error in the AL East is razor-thin. Boston, New York, and Baltimore are all reloading for 2026. Even Tampa Bay is rumoured to be exploring a trade to re-acquire Zach Eflin. Either way, one thing is sure: the Blue Jays are all-in, and 2025 might just have been the start of something extra special. View the full article

In his first solo podcast of the 2025-26 Miami Marlins offseason, Ely Sussman begins by analyzing Clayton McCullough's comments about Connor Norby preparing to play the outfield and Griffin Conine learning first base. Then, he reacts to Ryan Helsley and Devin Williams signing free agent contracts, and makes the case that Emilio Pagán may be the best option left on the reliever market for the Marlins. You can find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. Pagán served as primary closer for the Cincinnati Reds in 2025. He struck out 30.0% of all batters faced across 68 ⅔ innings pitched and finished the season on a particularly high note with 10 consecutive scoreless appearances. About to enter his age-35 season, Pagán has had only one extended injured list stint during his professional career—a right lat strain in 2024. Thanks to a splitter that has progressively spun less and added vertical break, Pagán dominated left-handed batters last season. The pitch accrued plus-six run value, per Baseball Savant, generating an ideal mix of whiffs and soft contact. Swim Around the Diamond At the end of every episode of The Offishial Show, I will be highlighting and recommending Marlins-related content that was posted recently outside of FOF. Here's what I picked this time: Aram Leighton's top 15 Marlins prospects (Just Baseball) 2026 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins (FanGraphs) WBC-style rosters comprised of current/former Marlins players (Son Los Marlins) Inside Major League Baseball's fan council featuring SuperSub Ryan Schlesinger (The Athletic) Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View the full article

Following their acquisition of Sonny Gray, it hasn't been difficult to imagine the Boston Red Sox doubling-down and adding another premier starter to their rotation this offseason. The 2026 campaign represents the final one prior to (what many expect to be) a long lockout that could put the 2027 season in jeopardy. There's real, tangible value in operating under economic certainty, even if only for one year. Trading for Gray -- and requiring the St. Louis Cardinals to pick up half of his remaining salary -- was the start of going all-in on next year, not the end of it. That being said, where exactly the Red Sox turn after Gray depends on your perspective. I made it clear that I believe Gray to be the No. 2 starter this team has been searching for since last year's Winter Meetings. Others have made it clear they do not share that opinion. Depending on which side of the ledger you fall on, you either believe the Red Sox need another depth option to fill in one of the primary jobs behind Brayan Bello, or that they need a true co-ace for Garrett Crochet. As a Gray truther, I'll cross the line on my own party and stand with those wanting another frontline addition. Gray is a true one-year rental at 36 years old, and it could behoove Boston's front office to find a longer-term partner for Crochet. One could make the case that Bello may still yet grow into that role, or perhaps one of the team's many exciting young arms (Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyson Witherspoon, etc.) could leap others on the depth chart. But that's an idea best harbored for a post-lockout world; in the here and now, there needs to be another upper-echelon starter in Beantown by Opening Day. I'm not here to tell you who that may be. I maintain my belief that Freddy Peralta is the quintessential Red Sox trade target, though perhaps trading valuable prospect capital for two rental starters in the same offseason isn't the best way of doing business. What I am here to do is explain why, despite my (overzealous) belief in Gray, I think this team should be focusing exclusively on front-of-the-rotation arms. It helps that there's already so much depth in place. Tolle and Early really should be given the first crack at the No. 5 gig in spring training, and it helps that fellow high-upside arms Kyle Harrison and Luis Perales are already on the 40-man roster. That also doesn't include a trio of players with past MLB success that should be returning from injury at some point in 2026: Patrick Sandoval, Tanner Houck, and Hunter Dobbins. Those seven alone should easily be able to cover whatever innings are open following Crochet, Gray, and Bello, but even that group fails to mention the best of the bunch: Kutter Crawford. I'll slow my own roll for a second and clarify that by "best", I don't mean "most talented" or "possessing the most impressive track record." Instead, I simply mean that, of the octet of options laid out in the previous paragraph, I find it most likely that Crawford will be able to hold onto a rotation spot throughout the duration of next season. Of course, that will require Crawford to overcome his bizarre wrist injury that he suffered while moving furniture in the confines of his own home. He was on track to return from patellar tendinopathy in his right knee at some point after the trade deadline, and yet, the usually-reliable starter missed the entire campaign after undergoing surgery on his throwing wrist in July. As far as freak accidents go, that's certainly one of the them. I'd hardly call Crawford -- who made 56 starts between 2023-24 -- injury-prone, and I'd wager a guess that the braintrust in Boston feels the same way. If we can suppose that Crawford will return to his pre-injury form, the Red Sox should be able to add another starter to the end-of-the-rotation mix, and a damn good one at that. Though he's never been particularly elite at any one thing, the 29-year-old right-hander is dependable. He tossed 183 2/3 innings when he was last on the mound in 2024, firing off a 3.85 xERA and 4.65 FIP that just about perfectly bisected his 4.36 ERA. He struck out over 23% of hitters while walking just 6.7%, though his primary blemish was allowing 34 home runs in 33 starts. He was much better in Fenway Park, surrendering a .296 wOBA at home compared to a .314 mark on the road. He also allowed eight fewer home runs despite facing 81 additional batters in Boston. That checks out when digging deeper — batters only went to the opposite field against Crawford 24.4% of the time in 2024, which makes it difficult for lefty hitters to attack the Green Monster. That's not a matter of luck, either. It's wrought on by conscious decisions made with his repertoire, highlighted by a pair of fastballs and a solid sweeper. Image courtesy of Baseball Savant As we know, the Red Sox love pitchers who can toss a big horizontal sweeper, and Crawford fits that mold. It was his best offering to righties last time he was healthy, and it yielded a .214 xBA and .295 xwOBA overall across 522 offerings in 2024, to go along with a tidy 26.3% whiff rate. In conjunction with that earlier note on the righty being better at home, most will note that Crawford worked reverse splits in his breakout campaign. Left-handed hitters slashed just .207/.272/.402 (.293 wOBA) against him, compared to a .240/.296/.436 (.316 wOBA) slash line for righties. A lot of that has to do with his excellent splitter and knuckle curveball, pitches that yielded batting averages below the Mendoza Line. Crawford tended to reserve those offerings for late in the counts against left-handed batters, seeing as both pitches generated put-away rates above 24%. Simply put, this is an arsenal that works in harmony. The raw "stuff" isn't necessarily elite, but there's a lot of synergy between each offering and when Crawford likes to throw them. There's genuine variance in the movement profiles of each pitch, and the same is true for their respective velocities. Hitters may be able to hit him hard when they guess right, but that's a one-in-five proposition when every pitch is working. If healthy, we already know Crawford can handle the workload. It helps that he also has a big-league caliber fastball in his aptly-named cutter, which produced a .216 batting average against and 26.5% whiff rate in 2024. With so much pressure being put on the front of the rotation to produce in 2026, it shouldn't be a surprise if Crawford settles right back into his home as one of the league's most-dependable backend starters next season. View the full article

The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korean Baseball Organization have posted their star third baseman, Sung Mun Song. He now has until December 21 to sign with an MLB club. If he doesn't, he will return to the Heroes for 2026, but it looks as though Song will join the slow but steady stream of Korean hitters coming to the United States in their prime. The 29-year-old is coming off a season wherein he hit .315 with a .917 OPS in 144 games. He hit a career-high 26 home runs and stole 25 bags which was also his best mark yet. He had an equally impressive 2024, in which he hit .340 and led the Heroes in RBIs (with 104) and home runs (with 19). The left-handed hitter is a bit of a late bloomer. His first excellent season was that 2024 campaign, nine years after he made his debut as a teenager in 2015. He's looking to join former teammates Ha-Seong Kim, Jung Hoo Lee, and Hyeseong Kim in the American majors. He's two years the latter two players' senior, but a year younger than Ha-Seong Kim. Song has some serious power and speed, but his offensive game as a whole remains in question. He offers some defensive versatility, as he has played first and second base in addition to his primary spot at the hot corner, and will likely be viewed as a potential bench option in the majors. This is a player who likely won’t be chased by the first class contenders. If Song chases playing time instead of a ring, he might find what he is looking for with teams like the Angels, Athletics, White Sox, or Marlins. There have not been any credible rumors on the Cubs’ interest in Song, but they make sense as a possible suitor. Song likely would not hop over Matt Shaw as the starting third baseman on the depth chart, but if Shaw does struggle early on, Song would make for an interesting contingency plan. That he bats lefty also suggests some matchup value; he could spell Shaw against some right-handed starters and strengthen the position for the team by creating a semi-platoon. The only other reserve infielders on the 40-man roster right now are prospects James Triantos and Pedro Ramirez, so the Cubs do need to add an infielder or two. They signed veteran utility man Scott Kingery to a minor-league deal Tuesday, but Kingery is unlikely to play a significant role for any big-league team, in 2026 or any season thereafter. In 2025, Shaw was handed the starting third base job with no real competition. This is not a slight to Jon Berti, Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján or 41-year-old Justin Turner, but we saw all regular season and playoffs how unprepared the Cubs were for any potential growing pains with Shaw. Compared with signing an unexciting backup infield option, Song provides more upside. He was one of the best hitters in the KBO in each of the last two seasons, and would add a fun extra storyline in 2026. Early last season, we saw Lee take at least a brief turn one of the best hitters in baseball. If Song produces a well-timed, scorching-hot month or so, that would go a long way toward improving a lineup that is likely to lose Kyle Tucker—and he should come at a very affordable price. View the full article

Remember Garrett Mitchell? That question sounds glib, and almost preposterous. Seriously, though: it's not crazy to ask whether even intense Brewers fans think about Mitchell, these days. He was selected as the 20th overall pick by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2020 MLB Draft, out of UCLA. After rocketing through just 132 games at three levels in the minors over two seasons, Mitchell made his big-league debut in August 2022. He started slowly, collecting just four hits in his first 29 at-bats. Then he caught fire, and batted a Hurricane Hazle-like .469/.500/.625 the rest of the way, to finish the year at .311/.373/.459 across 61 at-bats. The Brewers thought they finally had a star center fielder who could anchor the Milwaukee outfield for the next 10 years. Not so fast, sports fans. Mitchell injured his left shoulder sliding into third base in a mid-April 2023 contest against Seattle, resulting in surgery for a torn labrum. His truncated season lasted all of 19 major-league games and eight minor-league rehab contests. Misfortune struck early in 2024, as Mitchell suffered a fractured left index finger in a late-March ramp-up ahead of Opening Day. He sat out 10 weeks before a brief rehab stint, and returned to the Brewers on July 1. Mitchell played 69 games and batted .255/.342/.469 over 196 at-bats. He showed glimpses of power and speed, slamming eight round-trippers while swiping 11 bags in 15 attempts. Mitchell was healthy to start the 2025 season, but suffered a strained left oblique just 25 games into the season. Two months later, he injured his left shoulder again while playing in a rehab game at Nashville. That mishap required another shoulder surgery—his second in three years. Mitchell played in only those 25 contests and batted .206/.286/.294 in 68 at-bats. Mitchell was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in the third grade, but has been dealing with the disease successfully since. He suffered leg injuries in 2019 and 2021, but seems to have gotten past those. The left shoulder issue could continue to be a concern, though. Per MLB.com, Mitchell had perhaps the best set of tools of all the players in the 2020 draft class. Overall, his grade was 55, which is considered above-average, as was his ‘hit’ tool. Defensively, his ‘arm’ and ‘field’ tools were both graded at 60, which is considered a plus tool. His 'running' tool was graded at 70, which is considered plus-plus. In short, Mitchell’s talent is not in question, and never has been. His health will determine whether he realizes his potential. Right now, he's on the bubble to even make the Opening Day roster. If he can stay on the field and flash his superior skills, he would make the decision for Brewers management very interesting. Is there room on the roster for Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich, Isaac Collins, and Blake Perkins? It would take a lot of finagling, but it would be nice to see the Brewers' outfield live up to the potential that was predicted for them a few short years ago. The others are in various stages of having done so, or still have time to do so. For Mitchell, that time is running short. What do you think about Garrett Mitchell? Will he make the Opening Day roster and if so, can he reclaim his starting job? Feel free to start the conversation in the comments section below. View the full article

ESPN published a ranking of players who could be traded this offseason, and Minnesota Twins Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Pablo López were all toward the top of the list. In this video, I provide my reaction to this article, try to figure out what the Twins would target in return, and offer up a player I'd love to see them acquire. View the full article

The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with right-handed reliever Cody Ponce on a three-year contract, reports Ken Rosenthal. The contract is for three years and an unspecified amount. Ponce last pitched in Major League Baseball in 2021 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He spent the past several years in Asian baseball leagues, specifically the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) in 2025. More to come... View the full article

As has been the case since basically day one of the offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays have been and will continue to be one of the most aggressive teams in the trade and free agent market. After landing Dylan Cease via free agency, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that they may not be done adding to the rotation. In a recent column, Nicholson Smith reported that the team has remained "engaged with the starting pitching market" and named Michael King, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, and Cody Ponce as potential free-agent targets. Additionally, he identifies starters Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins and MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals as trade targets, both of whom they discussed at the 2025 deadline. In short, it doesn't sound like anyone is out of sight when it comes to bolstering their starting rotation for 2026. Despite a current rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Eric Lauer, the Blue Jays know starting pitching depth is essential to another World Series run. Nicholson-Smith points out that 10 of the 12 playoff teams had at least six pitchers make 10 or more regular-season starts, including their World Series teams, who had seven such pitchers. Who do you think the Blue Jays should target for their rotation? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The Twins have quite a bit of work to do this offseason. Among the laundry list of gaping holes on the current team is first base, where they struggled to generate any meaningful offensive production last year. Minnesota’s first basemen combined for a .678 OPS in 2025, placing them 25th in MLB. With Ty France now gone, Kody Clemens sits atop the depth chart but doesn’t have nearly enough upside to get fans excited about the position heading into next season. Naturally, this means that the Twins could pursue a player in free agency and, given their frugal ways, are likely out of the running for Pete Alonso and even Ryan O’Hearn. However, Rhys Hoskins could be just affordable enough for Minnesota to be interested. Unfortunately, his sticker price is one of the only things he has going for him for 2026. He most recently completed a two-year stint with the Brewers, which, despite being a highly anticipated signing at the time, was immensely underwhelming on all fronts. For a total of $30 million ($34 million if you count the $4 million buyout of his mutual option), Milwaukee received a first baseman with a 102 OPS+ and 0.7 rWAR, hardly a strong return on investment. There was inherent risk following a long injury layoff in 2023, but even with 221 games under his belt, he never seemed to return to the hitter he was with the Phillies. The most drastic drop was undoubtedly in his ability to hit for power. Across six seasons in Philadelphia, he had a slugging percentage of .492, while he managed a slugging percentage of just .418 while with Milwaukee. Although this is a steep decline, by 2025, both his average and maximum exit velocities were back in the same ballpark (teehee) as his best years in Philadelphia. This means that he hadn’t really lost the raw power he's had his whole career, but it points to something more insidious. Instead, it seems the reason for this apparent discrepancy is that his quality of contact varied depending on the pitches he was seeing. In 2025, he pummeled fastballs but struggled immensely against breaking balls. Here are some of his batted ball metrics when separated by pitch type. # of pitches Average Exit Velocity BA SLG wOBA Fastball 715 92.7 mph 0.281 0.556 0.402 Breaking 545 85.5 mph 0.179 0.253 0.209 Offspeed 169 88.5 mph 0.194 0.226 0.254 As you can see, there’s a huge spread between the average exit velocity on fastballs and breaking balls. An average exit velocity of 92.7 mph is on par with Corey Seager’s season numbers, whereas an average exit velocity of 85.5 mph would be on par with Sal Frelick’s season numbers. This crucial vulnerability, along with returning injury issues, is what caused his OPS to decline from .877 in May to just .532 in June as opposing pitchers began to exploit his shortcomings. Unless he makes major adjustments, expect this steady diet of breaking balls and offensive slump to continue, especially as a more varied pitch mix is becoming vogue. Another symptom to check is his bat speed. Unfortunately, we only have bat-tracking data starting in 2024, which doesn’t provide enough data to definitively say whether he’s in the midst of a gradual decline. At 32 years old, his bat speed isn’t going to get any faster. In the two seasons for which we do have data, he was around the 40th percentile. It isn’t the reason for his diminished production at the plate, but it sure isn’t helping either. Offensively, he still does some things well. His plate discipline is as good as ever, and he has yet to post a walk rate below 10% for any season in his career. He still makes excellent swing decisions, posting an elite chase rate of just 19.9% last year. Finally, his batted-ball profile was still elite last season, with 34.5% of his batted balls pulled in the air, more than double the MLB average of 16.7%. But again, these positive batted ball results come almost exclusively against fastballs. Of the 25 total extra base hits he had, 19 of them came against fastballs, including all but one of his home runs. Based on the way that things have been going for him recently, Rhys Hoskins should be seen as more of a depth piece or placeholder than a starting option capable of moving the needle. Sure, the Twins don’t exactly have the most appealing options at either position, but does it really make sense to spend additional money on a player who could be at most a side-grade? If anyone knows not to throw good money after bad (or throw good money at all), it’s Minnesota’s front office. It remains to be seen whether the Twins will spend 2026 in rebuild mode, but even if they were focused on competing, it would make more sense to prioritize reloading the bullpen that was torn down at last year’s trade deadline over getting a first baseman in decline. At this point, signing anyone may be enough to cause excitement, but recent data suggests that a Rhys Hoskins contract could be more of a bearish signal than a bullish one. View the full article

Last weekend, rumors spread from the Boston Globe that the Royals may be interested in trading away Cole Ragans to the Red Sox for the right package. Royals GM JJ Picollo didn't mention Ragans specifically in his interview with Alex Speier of the Globe. Still, he did hint that they would be open to trading an established pitcher away for a lineup-changing outfielder. With big salary amounts owed to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, and injury concerns with Kris Bubic, Ragans may be the Royals' best starting pitching trade asset. The former Rangers first-round pick finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race in 2024 after posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 32 starts and 186.1 IP. Last year was a bit of a down year, as he struggled with injuries, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 61.2 IP. However, his xERA was 2.67, which ranked in the Top 4% of the league. Furthermore, he posted a 38.1% K rate and a 30.4% K-BB%, and showcased stellar stuff and strike metrics in his TJ Stats summary. Without a doubt, in terms of stuff, skills, and strikeout ability, Ragans is the most valuable starting pitcher in the Royals' rotation. Additionally, he's cost-controlled, having agreed to a three-year extension last offseason worth $13.25 million total. The deal includes next year and 2027, giving him one year of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency in 2029, according to Spotrac. Any team that acquires Ragans would not just gain a Cy Young-caliber pitcher but also one with financial predictability, unlike Bubic, who will be a free agent after next season. Thus, the Royals should be expecting a significant trade package in return for Ragans. While the Royals need an outfielder, a one-for-one swap for most outfielders would be a massive overpay by Kansas City. For a small-market franchise with regular playoff aspirations, such a deal could be debilitating to the progress Picollo has made since taking over for Dayton Moore after the 2023 season. What should the Royals be looking for in a deal? Well, let's look at Ragans' value, the Royals' needs, and a couple of theoretical moves that could make sense for Kansas City. What's Ragans' Value on the Trade Market? When looking at Ragans' value, I think two things could be utilized for us as baseball fans: statistics and Baseball Trade Value's "surplus" measurement. In terms of statistics, there's no question that Ragans has become the "ace" of the Royals' rotation, not easy to do given a rotation that includes veterans such as Wacha and Lugo. Since coming over from Texas in 2023 in the Aroldis Chapman trade, Ragans has made 57 starts and pitched 319.2 innings with the Royals. In that sample, he has a 3.32 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, a 2.79 FIP, an 11.5 K/9, and a 3.60 K/BB ratio. When looking at starting pitchers since July 17th, 2023, Ragans ranks 11th in fWAR (9.2), despite sporting the lowest IP total (314.2 IP) of any starter in the Top-15. Thus, Ragans has certainly put up the metrics to become one of the most valued starting pitching assets on the trade market, beyond Detroit's Tarik Skubal, who's a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner. When it comes to his value on Baseball Trade Values, it's essential to know what is factored into that value, not just for Ragans, but for all Major League players. According to BTV, it is necessary first to calculate the "field value," which includes the following factors: WAR Projections Inflation Years of Control Injury Risk Roster Risk The next factor is salary, which is needed to calculate "surplus" value, defined by BTV as follows: Thus, based on those factors, where does Ragans rank in comparison to other Royals players? According to BTV, Ragans sports the second-highest surplus value with a 79.4 mark. The only one higher is Bobby Witt Jr. with a 200.7 mark. Therefore, the 27-year-old lefty is one of the Royals' most prized assets, in addition to their most prized pitcher on the 40-man roster. What Are the Royals' Needs? The Royals need hitting and help in the outfield, plain and simple. Even in the interview with the Globe, Picollo pointed out that they need to upgrade the corner outfield in 2026, and the Royals would be willing to trade away pitching to accomplish that goal this offseason. However, another area of need for the Royals is to deepen the farm system, especially with the recent graduation of Jac Caglianone and the soon-to-be graduate Carter Jensen. The Royals' system has come a long way under Picollo and new scouting director Brian Bridges. However, for the Royals to be a consistent small-market playoff contender, like Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, they need to ensure that their farm system isn't left bare at any point. That was a significant reason Moore struggled to keep his job, despite leading the Royals to two pennants and a World Series title during his tenure. The Royals should explore deals not just to acquire an MLB-ready outfielder, but some prospect talent as well, in any possible trade, especially considering the surplus value Ragans holds. Proposed Trade #1: Cole Ragans to Boston for OF Jarren Duran, SP Kyson Witherspoon, and OF Jhostynxon Garcia Duran has been a target for the Royals for a while, as rumors swirled that Kansas City tried to acquire him at the deadline before settling on Mike Yastrzemski (which didn't turn out too badly). Duran proved to be quite valuable for the Red Sox last season, posting a 3.9 fWAR with a 111 wRC+, 16 home runs, and 24 stolen bases in 696 plate appearances. Over the past three years, Duran has accumulated 13.2 fWAR for the Red Sox, which leads all Red Sox players in that time frame, according to Fangraphs. That said, according to BTV, Duran's surplus value is 49.5, significantly lower than Ragans'. A one-for-one trade would not be worth it for Kansas City, based on BTV's model. Therefore, the Red Sox would need to throw in some prospect capital to make the trade a fair one for the Royals. Two prospects that could make sense are Witherspoon and Garcia, a starting pitcher and outfielder, respectively, in the Red Sox farm system. Witherspoon was the Red Sox's top draft pick in the 2025 MLB Draft out of Oklahoma. In his final season with the Sooners, he posted a 2.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 31.8% K rate, and 25.9% K-BB% in 16 starts and 95 IP. Thus, it's no surprise that the Red Sox were willing to give him a $5 million signing bonus at pick No. 15 (which was slightly below slot). Witherspoon did not pitch professionally after being drafted, but he could be an excellent project for the Royals' pitching development team and move quickly through the Royals' farm system in 2026. His BTV surplus value is 17.7. Garcia, known as "The Password" by Red Sox fans due to his hard-to-pronounce first name, is also an intriguing prospect that could give the Royals some depth on the 40-man, which lacks MLB-ready outfielders. The 22-year-old outfielder was mediocre in his initial MLB exposure (82 wRC+ and 55.6% K rate in nine PA), but a glut of outfielders in Boston blocked him. In 489 plate appearances in Triple-A Worcester, he slashed .267/.340/.470 with a 116 wRC+, 21 HR, 75 RBI, and seven stolen bases. When looking at his TJ Stats summary from Triple-A, Garcia showcased excellent barrel rates and solid exit velocity on batted balls. However, like many Royals hitters in their system, he struggled with plate discipline, whiffs, and strikeouts. Adding Duran, Witherspoon, and Garcia together yields a total surplus value of 75, making it a fair trade by BTV's standards, as shown below. Now, I'm not sure if the Red Sox would give up a recently drafted starting pitcher with considerable upside and a flawed but still talented outfielder who is just 23, along with Duran. That said, if the Royals are willing to trade their second-most valuable asset in their organization, they need to make sure they get a considerably fair return in the process. If they can't, they should continue to hold onto Ragans and look for other options. Proposed Trade #2: Ragans to San Diego for OF Fernando Tatis Jr. Remember how I talked about how the Royals should look to kill two birds with one stone by getting an established outfielder and prospects in return for Ragans? Well, this trade blows that idea out of the water. That said, if the Royals can only get a one-for-one deal with Ragans, they might as well shoot high and acquire Tatis in an agreement that BTV's model accepted. Surprisingly, Tatis may be more available than some baseball fans would like to think. His BTV surplus value is 83.3, slightly higher than Ragans'. However, he also commands a super long-term deal, one of many that San Diego has on their payroll (Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts being the others). He also only posted an .807 OPS, down from his .833 mark in 2024. Thus, the Padres may view a possible Ragans-Tatis trade as an avenue to improve their starting pitching (they lack depth after No. 1 starter Nick Pivetta, especially after Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays this offseason) while shedding some short-term payroll. Still, he posted a 6.1 fWAR in 2025, and his Statcast percentiles showed that Tatis is one of the most naturally talented hitters in the league. Now, the Royals would like to trade Ragans for Tatis in an instant. However, it may be a tougher deal to stomach for Padres GM AJ Preller, especially since Tatis is the face of the Padres franchise. While Ragans would immediately improve the San Diego rotation, fans would likely revolt in response to losing a player who has been so key to the Padres' turnaround after years of mediocrity and inconsistency. Nonetheless, it's an avenue to explore, as a 1-for-1 trade of Ragans for Tatis would at least check a lot of boxes for both teams in terms of on-field production and needs. View the full article

Since 2017, MLB has awarded compensation picks to teams based on a combination of revenue, market size, and record in two separate rounds. Fifteen teams receive these picks in two groups (one of seven teams, one of eight). Comp Round A takes place between the compensation picks following the first and second rounds. Comp Round B takes place immediately following the second round. Teams alternate between Comp Round A and Comp Round B selections depending on the year. In 2025, the Twins used their Comp Round A selection on Alabama RHP Riley Quick. In 2026, they will have a Comp Round B pick. The order of those selections was released today. The Twins were awarded the final selection in Comp Round B. In 2025, that pick was 74th overall and carried a slot value of $1,111,000. While this isn't great news, it won't have a massive effect on the Twins' bonus pool. The difference between the slot values of the first pick in Comp Round B and the last pick in 2025 was $209,400. We can expect slot values for draft picks to increase by between 4% and 9% in a given year. Let's hope the Twins' bad luck is behind them, with the Draft Lottery scheduled for December 9th. The Twins currently have the second-best odds of landing the first overall pick. The outcome of the lottery will have a massive impact on the Twins' ability to spend (and have access to the best talent) in the 2026 MLB Draft. View the full article

On Tuesday afternoon, MLB announced the order of the two Competitive Balance rounds of the 2026 MLB Draft, as highlighted by Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline on Bluesky. For those unaware, the Competitive Balance rounds in the MLB Draft can be described as follows, according to MLB.com's Joe Trezza: The Royals rank 28th in MLB franchise value, ahead of only the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, according to Forbes. Thus, Kansas City not only tends to receive draft picks in the Competitive Balance round, but it also tends to receive an excellent draft position in those rounds. Here's a layout of the two rounds, according to Trezza. The Royals draft behind only the Guardians, who rank 25th in Forbes' franchise valuations. Competitive Balance round picks are the only draft picks that are allowed to be traded by MLB teams. In 2022, the Royals utilized their CB pick in a deal with Atlanta that netted them outfielder Drew Waters, pitcher Andrew Hoffmann, and infielder CJ Alexander. In 2024, they acquired reliever Hunter Harvey from the Nationals in a trade package that included their CB pick and third-base prospect Cayden Wallace. While the Competitive Balance rounds are set, the whole draft order will not be set until December 9th, when the MLB Draft Lottery takes place, during the Winter Meetings. The Royals have 0.84% odds to win the top pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, according to Trezza. The 2026 MLB Draft is set to take place July 12th-13th in Philadelphia, home of the All-Star game next season. Photo Credit: © Brett Davis-Imagn Images View the full article

The 2025 MLB trade deadline will be remembered as one of the most dramatic in Twins history. Faced with a roster that hovered in the middle of the American League standings and weighed down by injuries and inconsistency, the front office chose to reset the roster. Big names were moved; prospects poured in; and fans spent the rest of the summer debating whether the Twins had waved a white flag or executed a savvy long-term play. Now, with multiple months of returns and development to examine, we can revisit each trade with clearer judgment. Did the Twins win the 2025 deadline, or did they sow the seeds of regret? Below is a trade-by-trade look at the deadline that redefined the franchise. SS Carlos Correa to the Astros for RHP Matt Mikulski and $70 million in salary relief This was the headline deal. Moving Correa was less about talent and more about financial flexibility, after uneven seasons with the Twins. Mikulski has already been released from the organization, but it was never about getting a player in return. This was a straight salary dump. Even if Correa found his footing again (pun intended) in Houston, the Twins were heading in a new direction, and their exceptionally expensive shortstop was out of the team’s long-term plans. It would have been great if the Twins had reinvested the savings into payroll for 2026, but it looks like the Pohlads could pocket the money, which makes it a loss. Verdict: Loss OF Harrison Bader to the Phillies for OF Hendry Mendez and RHP Geremy Villoria Bader’s time in Minnesota was short and filled with streaks of strong defense and better-than-expected offense. He was on an expiring contract, and the Twins were able to cash him in for two intriguing prospects. Mendez posted a .891 OPS in the Arizona Fall League, after slashing .299/.399/.439 at Double A in 2025. Villoria is more of a wild card, since he is only 16 years old and spent the season in the Dominican Summer League (3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). Bader helped Philadelphia in their playoff push, but this return fits Minnesota’s timeline. Verdict: Win RHP Jhoan Duran to the Phillies for C Eduardo Tait and RHP Mick Abel Trading one of the most electric relievers in baseball was always going to sting. Minnesota hopes Abel rebounds well with the Twins development group. Tait was arguably the best prospect traded at the deadline, and looks like the team’s catcher of the future. He reached High-A Cedar Rapids as an 18-year-old and posted a .738 OPS in 2025. Duran continues to dominate, but the Twins badly needed upper-level pitching and long-term catching depth. This is a rare case where both sides benefited equally. Verdict: Push RHP Chris Paddack and RHP Randy Dobnak to the Tigers for C Enrique Jimenez Paddack never found his footing after returning from surgery, and Dobnak’s role had evaporated. Paddack became a free agent this winter, and the Tigers declined Dobnak’s club option. Jimenez is improving as a defensive catcher and slashed .256/.371/.476, including a .983 OPS after the trade. Turning two expendable arms (and a bit of lingering monetary obligation) into a potential long-term option behind the plate is solid business, especially for a team that has struggled with catcher development in recent years. Verdict: Win UTL Willi Castro to the Cubs for RHP Ryan Gallagher and RHP Sam Armstrong Castro’s versatility made him a popular Twin, but the club took the opportunity to turn a utility piece into two arms with a bit of upside. Gallagher reached Double A as a 22-year-old and posted a 4.07 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP in 121 2/3 innings. Armstrong’s slider grades out well on some models, so he could be a long-term bullpen arm. Neither is a sure thing, but these are the types of lottery tickets that can pay off. Verdict: Win LHP Danny Coulombe to the Rangers for LHP Garrett Horn Coulombe was excellent in Minnesota, but the front office sold high on a veteran reliever with an expiring contract. Horn is an intriguing lefty who added velocity in 2025 while moving from rookie ball to High A. In 14 starts, he posted a 3.27 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 32.5% strikeout rate. If he can’t make it as a starter, the Twins could develop him into a lefty weapon out of the bullpen. Verdict: Win RHP Griffin Jax to the Rays for RHP Taj Bradley This was one of a few shockers. Jax had become the steady hand in the bullpen, but the Rays needed stability and offered up Bradley in return. Minnesota immediately moved Bradley into the starting rotation with the hope that a new organization could help him reclaim the command and confidence that made him a premium prospect. If he sticks in the rotation, the upside outweighs the loss of Jax, but that’s a big question at this point. Verdict: Loss RHP Brock Stewart to the Dodgers for OF James Outman This seemed like a strange trade at the time. On paper, Stewart has more value, but his medicals are likely poor due to his long-term injury history. Stewart was a veteran with some upside, and the Dodgers were searching for bullpen help. However, he was limited to four appearances before injuries sidelined him again. Outman gives Minnesota a controllable outfielder, but he has minimal upside. Verdict: Loss (for both teams) RHP Louis Varland and Ty France to the Blue Jays for LHP Kendry Rojas and OF Alan Roden For many fans, this was a tough pill to swallow. Varland had the Minnesota backstory and went on to be a key part of Toronto’s World Series run, including setting the MLB record for playoff pitching appearances. In return, the Twins received Rojas, a lefty with starter traits who could be a breakout prospect for the team next year. Roden is a contact-oriented outfielder with elite plate discipline (.423 OBP at Triple A). Both fit Minnesota’s emphasis on control and development. Rojas will provide long-term value, and that’s why this trade leans towards the Twins. Verdict: Slight Win So, Did the Twins Win the 2025 Deadline? Surprisingly, yes. For a deadline that felt painful and symbolic of a step backward, the longer view shows a pattern of smart asset management and targeted upside hunting. Minnesota added pitching depth, athletic position players, and future roster flexibility. They gave up veterans who had plateaued or who fit better with contenders. The 2025 deadline was not about winning the division that season. It was about strengthening the system and setting up a multi-year competitive window. Now that the early returns have arrived, the front office played the long game and is starting to see the benefits. The final verdict is that the Twins quietly won the 2025 deadline and positioned themselves for a more sustainable future—but that they could win it much more resoundingly by investing some of their financial savings in the 2026 club. Do you agree with the verdicts on the above trades? Which trade do you wish the Twins had avoided? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article