DiamondCentric

Now official, Dylan Cease won't be returning to the San Diego Padres in 2026 after signing a $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. Where can the Friars turn to replace their ace? View the full article

The Blue Jays kicked off their offseason with a bang, agreeing to terms with Dylan Cease last week. So, obviously, it’s about time that I get greedy and start looking at the next way I want them to improve the roster heading into 2026. In light of this recent Jon Morosi tweet suggesting the Jays at least checked in, I think it’s only fitting that I dive into the Diamondbacks’ All-Star second baseman, Ketel Marte. Broadly, in terms of fit, it’s pretty easy to picture Marte as the everyday second baseman for the Jays in 2026. With the starting rotation already addressed, and with Bo Bichette currently out testing the free agent market, one of the two middle infield spots looks to me like the most glaring hole on the roster. Andrés Giménez will factor in on an everyday basis, and there’s no doubt that should Bo walk (and even if he were to re-sign), the Jays would be more than comfortable having Giménez start about 150 games at shortstop. Ernie Clement is essentially the only other name in the middle infield mix at the moment, and he’s a guy whose value comes from his utility and being able to bounce around the infield, not to mention that he was actually a below-average hitter in 2025, finishing the regular season with a 98 wRC+ overall, and just a 75 wRC+ against righties. I would say it’s pretty likely that plan A for the Jays is to just bring back Bichette, but it’s far from a guarantee that that’s what ends up happening. With $210 million committed to Cease already this offseason, the fact that the Jays will be bidding against other teams for Bichette's services, and the uncertainty around where Bo sees himself playing on the diamond, it’s not a bad idea to start formulating backup plans, and it makes sense that the Jays have checked in on Marte. Aside from the obvious positional fit, Marte is as pure a hitter as they come. Since 2023, he has led qualified second basemen in OPS, wRC+, home runs, and fWAR. It’s not very hard to come up with an argument calling him the best offensive second baseman in baseball so far in the 2020s, without even mentioning that he’s a switch-hitter with fairly even splits. It’s almost not worth mentioning the defense when it comes to a hitter this talented, but in Marte’s case, he’s considered about an average defender at second base. I almost feel guilty comparing Marte to Bichette, but looking at results over the past four seasons, it’s pretty easy to see Marte has been the better player. I provide this Stathead player comparison graphic since 2022 understanding the risk it causes to my reputation as a baseball analyst and general ball-knower: Marte has been worth over 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in each of the last three seasons, including 2024, when he was worth 6.4 and finished third in NL MVP voting. Bichette has only finished with more than 4.0 fWAR twice in his career, and not since 2022. There aren’t a ton of directions the Jays could go this offseason that would upgrade their middle infield over what Bichette has provided, but bringing in Marte is probably one of those directions. If you want to talk money, DiamondCentric projects Bichette to make $175 million over seven years this offseason – that's $25 million per season – while Marte has $102.5 million left on his deal (including some deferred money), which runs through 2031, his age-37 campaign. It’s important not to forget that Bichette is a full five years younger than Marte, and re-signing him just about guarantees four or five solid seasons should he stay healthy. Already 32, Marte’s immediate future is a little bit less certain. This article is not meant to be a comparison between Bichette and his potential replacement, but I think it’s important to recognize that Ross Atkins’ goal is to make the 2026 Jays better than the 2025 Jays. Given the term and team-friendly nature of Marte's current deal, the acquisition cost for the Diamondbacks star could get ugly, and we know that the Jays’ system isn’t exactly stacked with blue chip prospects, so it’s hard to say if a trade would even be possible. Still, it’s a lot of fun to imagine Ketel Marte’s bat hitting in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Blue Jays’ lineup. View the full article

Ketel Marte has been the best second baseman in baseball over the last two seasons, producing 6.8 bWAR in 2024 and 4.4 bWAR (in a reduced workload) in 2025. He slugged 28 home runs in just 480 at-bats, and overall, he was one of the most potent bats in baseball. He was a slightly above-average defender at the keystone, to boot, further enhancing his value to a team set up like the Brewers are. With trade season upon us (and rumors of Marte's unhappiness within the Diamondbacks), could the Brewers pounce on a potentially era-defining move? Can it Fit Defensively? Any acquisition of Marte would mean Brice Turang sliding over to shortstop, putting some dent in the premium infield defense of 2025. Turang has proved to be an excellent second baseman, but some arm strength concerns and slightly unexpected range-based metrics at second base in 2025 hint that he may not be the above-average shortstop some hoped he could be. Combine that with some concerns about whether Turang's shoulder can handle the longer throws over 162 games, and perhaps this defensive alignment isn't as viable in practice as it is on paper. This is something the front office would need to have some certainty about, before executing a trade of this magnitude. How Valuable Is Ketel Marte? Marte is 32 years old, probably entering the last of his prime seasons. However, his all-around skill set in the batter's box is something to behold. Marte shows great plate discipline, rarely chasing outside the strike zone. He shows strong bat-to-ball skills that give him both strikeout and walk rates far better than the league averages. He also generates ample hard contact. While he crushes fastballs, he has an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) over .360 in each of the last two seasons against breaking pitches. His contract carries him through his age-37 season and is heavily backloaded, with five years and $96 million guaranteed and a player option for $11.5 million in 2031. That already reflects some escalation from when he signed the deal less than a year ago, because he eclipsed 550 plate appearances in 2025. That boosts his salary in each remaining year of the deal by $1 million, and he can increase his salaries for following years by up to $2.5 million each year if he stays healthy and plays every day. Thus, there's a good chance this balloons into a nine-figure commitment. However, there are also substantial deferrals in the deal, which brings the real cost back down even as the nominal payouts threaten to rise significantly. All told, it's a very team-friendly deal for a player of Marte's caliber. The only other discussion point around this is that Marte has incurred the ire of his teammates with repeated requests for days off. Ken Rosenthal reported on that in the wake of Marte being away from the team without permission for two days coming out of the All-Star break. The Brewers are constructed to outwork their opponents, grinding harder day to day and fighting for every inch available. How Marte fits into that is anybody's guess, and the front office would surely need to do enough background research to know whether he would disrupt things before pulling the trigger on a deal. What Would a Trade Package Look Like? With Marte locked up for at least five more years and Turang under team control for another three, it opens some possibilities in the short term for the Brewers. They may be able to sell high on Cooper Pratt—whose bat has struggled to create impact in the minor leagues—and wait on the arrival of Jesús Made. They have a plethora of strong prospects, all of whom (except Made) could be used to chase Marte. A package could look somewhere along the lines of this: Luis Peña (#2 Brewer Fanatic prospect) Robert Gasser (#7 Brewer Fanatic prospect) Brock Wilken (#11 Brewer Fanatic prospect) The Brewers would be trading away a strong defensive shortstop with power that many scouts consider untapped, in Luis Peña, one of the hottest prospects in baseball; Robert Gasser, a left handed arm who showed well during a small sample so far in the major leagues; and Brock Wilken, an upside third baseman with thump who could profile similarly to Eugenio Suárez at his peak upside. It's an enticing deal for both parties, costing a lot of capital for the Brewers, but with monumental improvements to their offensive production in the short and medium term. It would give their lineup a dynamic a bit closer to those of the other elite teams in the National League, and the players they might trade to make it happen (while very valuable) could be drawn from places where the team enjoys a surplus. Would you take this deal? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View the full article

The Boston Red Sox are reportedly looking to shore up their Keystone by kicking the tires on a three-time National League All-Star second baseman. Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently ranked Ketel Marte as the third-best trade candidate on the market. Nightengale identifies pitching as a need for the Arizona Diamondbacks, of which the Red Sox have plenty after acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals last week. Marte has five years left on a deal he signed last spring, totaling $116.5 million, with $46 million in deferrals. Marte, 32, posted a +5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a +3 Outs Above Average (OAA) in 2025. Offensively, he scored 87 runs with 28 home runs and four stolen bases. He carried an .893 OPS, .381 wOBA, and a 145 wRC+; he's a plus player on both sides of the ball. Do you think the Red Sox should trade for Marte? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The calendar has officially rolled over into December, meaning the Major League Baseball offseason should begin to really rev up. We've seen some compelling, unexpected signings and trades so far this offseason, but the blockbuster moves we're all waiting for haven't quite dropped yet. The Chicago Cubs aren't expected to re-sign Kyle Tucker, but there are other moves made that can improve next season's roster. Let's project a few of them, and the Opening Day roster that could take shape around them. Pitchers (13) Shota Imanaga - SP Matthew Boyd - SP Cade Horton - SP Ranger Suárez - SP Jameson Taillon - SP Colin Rea - RP Javier Assad - RP Ben Brown - RP Porter Hodge - RP Phil Maton - RP Luke Little - RP Daniel Palencia - RP Ethan Roberts - RP As you'll notice above, the Cubs' reported interest in left-hander Ranger Suárez is strong enough to place him into this first Opening Day roster prediction. Suárez has been linked to Chicago throughout the entire offseason, and he would be a welcome addition to a Cubs staff that already boasts three left-handed starters. The only other new name on the list is the recently signed right-handed reliever Phil Maton. Justin Steele is unlikely to be ready until at least May, but he's very much a factor, too. Catchers (2) Carson Kelly Miguel Amaya Expect no changes behind the plate for Chicago after the non-tendering of Reese McGuire. Barring any injuries (or an unexpected turning of the corner by Moisés Ballesteros, defensively), it should be Kelly and Amaya holding it down behind the plate for all 162 games next season. Infielders (5) Michael Busch- 1B Nico Hoerner - 2B Dansby Swanson - SS Matt Shaw - 3B Luis Urías - UTIL We're staying small here. Luis Urías would be a minor addition, but an important one. He can play either second or third base (and first, if the situation demands it). A righty batter, he's a possible platoon partner for Michael Busch, as well as a backup to Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner. Hoerner himself serves as the backup for Dansby Swanson, although now that infielder Pedro Ramirez is on the 40-man roster, he could also become part of the equation. Outfielders (5) Ian Happ Pete Crow-Armstrong Seiya Suzuki Owen Caissie Rob Refsnyder Rob Refsnyder is a name that's been thrown around a bit to fill a need for an excellent platoon option against left-handed pitchers. The other four outfielders listed here are as expected, and they will play a majority of the games during the season. Designated Hitter (1) Moisés Ballesteros No surprise here, as Ballesteros showed his ability to handle major-league pitching during his limited time last season. With no more Tucker in the lineup and Suzuki likely to play more outfield in 2026, the DH role should belong at least partially to Ballesteros. There you have it: our best guess at the Opening Day roster for 2026, when Chicago takes the field against the Washington Nationals. These predictions could obviously change with time and signings, and we'll make sure to update that when our second prediction comes out. View the full article

It was a quiet move that barely broke through the list of transactions on the Major League Baseball website, but the San Diego Padres have made another depth signing for a depleted pitching staff in former New York Yankees prospect Sean Boyle. It's a minor-league deal, but one that could have at least some bearing on the 2026 campaign. Boyle is a full year removed from a 2023 Tommy John surgery, spending the entirety of the '25 season with the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He made 28 appearances (23 starts) and pitched to a 4.61 ERA (4.63 FIP) with a 20.5 percent strikeout rate and 8.7 percent walk rate. The results could be classified as barely-better-than-average, but it is worth noting that he threw more innings than any arm the Padres had in El Paso last season. There also may be a touch more upside to be realized than he demonstrated in 2025. While never a marquee prospect with the Yankees, Boyle did crack their list of Top 30 prospects in 2023. His MLB Pipeline writeup that year included the following: Based on that, Boyle is (in a sense) a 2.5-pitch pitcher. He offers the sweeper that can take the shape of a cutter while throwing a two-seam fastball that induces groundball contact. There isn't an overpowering component in his arsenal, but his pre-surgery numbers are indicative of a pitcher with higher upside on the strikeout side even if the command has left a little to be desired. As such, this other bit from his writeup is less surprising: There's a tightrope element to his game that isn't ideal. But each side of the scouting report does speak to a player who can be a regular contributor either as a backend starter or as more of a bulk type in relief, especially given the idea that his stuff will play against hitters of both handedness. Said stuff, even if not overpowering, should, on paper, combine with his proclivity for volume to provide a sense of stability in whatever role Boyle finds himself in. That is absolutely something this Padres team could use. The rotation itself is still depleted. Nick Pivetta is the only starter guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster. While Joe Musgrove may not be far behind and the team could opt to look at someone like Mason Miller for a starting gig, this is a team in dire need of arms to eat innings. It remains to be seen if Kyle Hart can fill such a role in Year 2 with the organization. Boyle, despite his lack of experience at the top level, appears capable of providing just that. It's another unexciting move for an organization starved for some stability following the confirmed departure of Dylan Cease and imminent one of Michael King. But, like the re-signing of Hart, it's one that is entirely necessary considering where the team stands on the mound at present. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs wisely scooped up strikeout artist Phil Maton for their depleted bullpen, but their need for velocity and more relievers still stands out like a sore thumb on the roster. View the full article

Sweet Lou, Comrade Cody, and Ol Gregg have a Twins offseason blueprint, and they're gonna share it with you! Is it better than whatever the clowns at Destination: The Show have cooking? And what has Royce Lewis been up to since our last show? Won't someone check on Royce! Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have gotten off to an unsurprisingly slow start in the offseason. To this point, their most notable move is tendering a contract to Trevor Larnach, who many thought might be non-tendered. However, this morning, Jeff Passan of ESPN ignited the burner on the hot stove with an update on Byron Buxton. In ranking the players who could be traded, Passan ranked Buxton as the fifth-best player behind Tarik Skubal, Ketel Marte, Freddy Peralta, and Hunter Green. Passan added, "Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause - and not just for Atlanta..." To this point, Buxton has not stated anything publicly to confirm or deny this report. If it's true, this is a notable shift in Buxton's mindset, who, on multiple occasions, has said he wants to stay with the Twins. However, at the back end of his prime and with the state of the organization, it's hard to blame him for the change. Buxton, coming off a career year, played in 126 games in 2025. He finished with 35 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 24 stolen bases. He posted an impressive .878 OPS, a .367 wOBA, and a 135 wRC+. Defensively, Buxton is starting to slow down in center field with -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and +3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Do you think the Twins should trade Buxton? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

Finally squashing the big-name free agent narrative, the Toronto Blue Jays' signing of ace pitcher Dylan Cease positions them at the forefront of the AL East for a long time. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox's trade for Sonny Gray reinforced the rotation without breaking the bank, giving the team multiple paths to improving more throughout the winter. View the full article

Welcome to part three of North Side Baseball's offseason series covering the 1918 Chicago Cubs. You can find part one here and part two here. Last time we checked in, in part two, the Cubs were chasing the New York Giants in the standings through the end of May, but were making up ground quickly. Even though they lost Grover Cleveland Alexander to the military, the pitching staff was rolling behind Hippo Vaughn. The offense was doing their part, thanks to sterling performances from Fred Merkle, Les Mann, Dode Paskert, and rookie shortstop Charlie Hollocher. In today’s piece, we’ll take a look at the career and life of Hollocher. [Please be warned that this piece will discuss topics like mental illness and suicide. I tried to present these events as they reportedly happened in a way to shed light on the tragic tale of Charlie Hollocher, while paying homage to the person and player that he was.] Charles Jacob Hollocher was born on June 11, 1896, in St. Louis, MO. According to his Society for American Baseball Research biography, Hollocher learned the game from sportswriter John B. Sheridan. This led Hollocher to the minor leagues, where his contract was eventually purchased by the Cubs before the 1918 season. Reportedly, the Cubs were trying to deal the young shortstop for Rogers Hornsby to no avail. That would be a blessing in disguise, as he would go on to hit a team-leading .316 in the 1918 season. His 5.5 FanGraphs WAR was fourth in all of baseball. Unfortunately for Hollocher and the Cubs, that 1918 season, when he was just 22 years old, was close to his peak. His average dropped to .270 in the 1919 season. Then came the health issues. According to The Capital Times, on June 9, 1920, he was pulled from the lineup with what doctors called ptomaine poisoning, or as it is now more commonly known, food poisoning. He would go on to hit .383 in 33 games following his return to the lineup, until the same thing would happen again. Hollocher was absent from the lineup from July 14 through July 24, with the Springfield News Sun reporting on July 21 that he lost 15 pounds during another bout with ptomaine poisoning. He returned to the lineup on July 24 and 25, however, that would be the end of Hollocher’s season. Per his SABR biography, it was announced on August 15 that he was hospitalized, and then on August 17 that he was released. He finished the season with a .319 batting average, but only managed to play in 80 games and notch 369 plate appearances. Despite all of that, Hollocher would, again, rebound. He hit .315 for the Cubs across the 1921 and 1922 seasons. Unfortunately, the star shortstop fell ill again before the 1923 season, with the Chicago Tribune reporting on February 16 that he was “down with a mild attack of flu.” On March 31, the Tribune followed up that Hollocher was “confined to bed at his home here, ushering from after effects of an attack of influenza last February.” This would delay the shortstop’s 1923 season debut until May 11, where he showed no signs of being hampered, sporting the typical high batting average that fans had come to expect from Charlie Hollocher. He was hitting .342 with a .410 on-base percentage on July 23. Alas, that was the last we’d see of Hollocher in 1923. The Associated Press quoted Hollocher on August 4 as saying that he was “feeling pretty rotten and have made up my mind to go home, take a rest, and forget baseball for the rest of this year.” It was reported in the Tribune in November of that year that “stories immediately started that Hollocher’s real purpose in ‘jumping’ the team was to force a trade that would send him to the Cardinals.” It was clear that people were becoming frustrated and speculating about the star shortstop’s consistent absence. Hollocher would again rejoin the Cubs for the 1924 season after a brief contract holdout, amidst reports that he was finally fully healthy. Despite those reports, he was not his typical self. He was hitting for just a .245 batting average through August 20 before he went missing from the lineup again. The Tribune followed up with the following on September 5, while expressing doubt that he would ever play again: ”Hollocher is a sick young man, and his failure to play regularly for the last couple months was due to that and nothing else. Several weeks ago he requested that he be excused for the balance of the season, but was urged to stay until the club could get a utility shortstop.” This was, indeed, the last time anyone would see Charlie Hollocher on a professional baseball field, despite several attempts at a comeback. It is reported in his SABR biography that Hollocher returned home to St. Louis where he operated a tavern, worked as an investigator for the prosecuting attorney’s office, and also worked as a watchman at a drive-in movie theater. This all, unfortunately, led to tragedy on August 14, 1940. According to multiple reports at that time, Charlie Hollocher was found dead, in his car, with a gun wound and a 16-gauge shotgun lying beneath one of his arms. There was a note on the dashboard to call his wife. He was 44 years old. According to his SABR biography, his wife said he was recently complaining of severe abdominal pains. It is also quoted that the Chicago Herald-American wrote the following: ”The death of Charley Hollocher at his own hand came as no surprise to baseball folks who knew the one-time Cub shortstop when he was rated the top man at his position in the big leagues. Even when he was breaking in at Portland, Oregon, Hollocher was a moody, neurotic boy.” There are multiple layers to the tragedy that was Charlie Hollocher. It would seem, through multiple reports, that the young man was suffering from some sort of chronic illness in his stomach, and not everybody took that particularly seriously. We’ll never truly know what happened, but it’s easy to imagine that the illness itself, never finding a true diagnosis, and not always being taken in earnest, took a toll on him mentally. Through it all, Hollocher’s .304 career batting average is 18th all-time in the history of the Chicago Cubs among players that had at least 1,000 plate appearances. His 23.7 fWAR in just seven seasons, some of which were shortened due to the illness, is 32nd. A lot of this has been lost to history. Personally, I had never heard of Hollocher until researching this series. It’s hard not to imagine what could have been. We are all fortunate to live in a time when both physical and mental health are given much more care, though it is still not taken seriously enough. Let the story of Charlie Hollocher serve as a reminder that you never know what another human being is going through. Be kind to each other. View the full article

Even though Opening Day is 114 days away, Milwaukee Brewers fans cogitate, brainstorm, contemplate, imagine, envision, ponder, and ruminate over how the team can get better, or what next season is going to look like. Many of them think about the Brewers 24/7/365, and an additional day during Leap Years. So, though we know changes will come between now and then, let's imagine that the season begins tomorrow. In that case, the Opening Day roster would look something like this. PITCHERS Starting Rotation (5) Freddy Peralta Brandon Woodruff Chad Patrick Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Ideally, of course, each member of this group would stay healthy and perform well enough to make 30 starts. Reality is the antidote for such delusions, though, and the Brewers have realities both behind and before them that figure to shake up the rotation at some point. Peralta is high on the pundits' list of Brewers most likely to be traded. Woodruff returned from a year and a half on the shelf in dominant fashion, but landed on the injured list again with a lat strain in September. Presumably, he's back in full health right now, but next season will be a new test of the staying power of his shoulder. Patrick made 23 starts and pitched well enough to earn down-ballot NL Rookie of the Year votes. Misiorowski brought excitement to the mound and the park; fans are ready for Year Two of ‘The Miz.’ Priester won 12 straight decisions, and the Brewers won 19 consecutive games in which he took the mound. If one or more of these five falter, the Brewers have exceptional depth to buttress the rotation. Their five ‘starters-in-waiting’ made a total of 13 starts for Milwaukee last year. Tobias Myers made six starts, and after a midseason addition to his arsenal, he looked ready to make the move to a full-time starting job. Logan Henderson posted an ERA+ of 236 in five starts and is champing at the bit to be part of the rotation. Robert Gasser made two starts, but spent a lot of time on the injured list. In his return from Tommy John surgery, Coleman Crow made 12 starts at two levels, striking out batters at a rate of 32%, though he didn't find his way to the 40-man roster until the end of the season. Carlos Rodriguez had a cup of coffee in Milwaukee in each of the last two seasons, and shows potential—although perhaps as a long reliever, rather than a true starter. All five have minor-league options remaining, so if neither transactions nor injuries blow a hole in the side of the ship, this group can wait at Triple-A Nashville for a while. Only Myers and Rodriguez are candidates to do much work in relief for the team. Bullpen (8) Grant Anderson Aaron Ashby DL Hall Jared Koenig Nick Mears Trevor Megill Abner Uribe Rob Zastryzny The group listed above pitched 67% of the 634 2/3 innings Brewers relievers spent on the mound this year; expect to see more of the same. With four lefties and four righties in the pen, manager Pat Murphy has the flexibility to match up with opposing batters. Only Koenig and Uribe were fortunate enough to stay off the IL, and each of them wore down as the season progressed. As is true with the starters, the organization boasts good depth in the upper levels of the minors. There's another bullpen's worth of credible big-league hurlers beyond the group above, ready to stand the gap if called upon. CATCHERS (2) William Contreras Jeferson Quero If the Brewers elect not to pick up a backup catcher via trade or free agency, Quero will probably get his first shot in the big leagues. Darrien Miller is a long shot—the kind of player likely to hang around a while but not to make much of a dent in the majors. Marco Dinges is probably the next-best backstop in the organization after Contreras and Quero, but is about two years away. INFIELDERS (6) Andrew Vaughn (1B) Brice Turang (2B) Caleb Durbin (3B) Joey Ortiz (SS) Jake Bauers (1B-OF) Andruw Monasterio (INF) Tyler Black and Anthony Seigler are both on the 40-man, but neither will make the Opening Day roster, barring something unforeseen. Vaughn and Bauers figure to rough out something like a platoon arrangement at first base, while Turang, Ortiz and Durbin are entrenched (for now) at the other positions on the dirt. Monasterio's role will be filling in for and backing up all three, unless and until more moves come. OUTFIELDERS (5) Isaac Collins (LF) Sal Frelick (CF) Jackson Chourio (RF) Christian Yelich (DH) Blake Perkins (CF) Garrett Mitchell, Brandon Lockridge, and Steward Berroa are all on the 40-man, but this quintet has the inside track. Lockridge and Berroa might be waived at some point to free up roster spots. Mitchell could be in his make-or-break season; injuries have derailed his last three campaigns. A lot can happen over the next three-plus months, and the Brewers could add or subtract players through free agency or trade. This version of the Opening Day roster will definitely change. Or it may not. Even this version of the roster is a clear favorite to win the NL Central next season. What do you think about this 26-man? Am I missing anybody? Who is on your 26-man? Feel free to start the conversation in the comments section. View the full article

The 2025 Royals struggled to stay above .500, finishing the season with an 82-80 record. While there was plenty of blame to go around for failing to reach October after their successful run in 2024, little of that blame can be squared at the starting rotation. The Royals' starting five pitched to a 4.00 FIP in 2025, good for tenth in all of baseball, all while Cole Ragans pitched 61 innings before losing most of the season to injury. The Starting Rotation 1. Cole Ragans Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Ragans had his breakout year in 2024, finishing 4th in the AL Cy Young voting. In 2025, he struggled to stay on the mound, missing roughly three months with a left rotator cuff strain. Once he returned to the rotation in September, he reminded Royals fans how valuable he is, pitching every fifth day. Ragans is definitely the ace of this rotation, and if he can remain healthy, he could once again find himself in the Cy Young conversation. 2. Seth Lugo Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 206.2 7.88 2.09 3.00 3.83 2025 145.1 7.74 3.41 4.15 4.53 Lugo took a step back following his excellent 2024 season, when he finished runner-up in Cy Young voting. After signing his two-year extension at the trade deadline, Lugo struggled and eventually landed on the injured list for a lower back issue. Entering his age-36 season, it would be naïve to expect his 2024 performance to return. If he can stay healthy and eat up innings, he will continue to be a valued asset to the Royals’ rotation. 3. Michael Wacha Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 166.2 7.83 2.43 3.35 3.65 2025 172.2 6.57 2.35 3.86 3.66 Wacha had another steady year pitching, having nearly an identical performance as the year prior. He was a steady presence in the rotation while other pitchers struggled with injuries. 4. Kris Bubic Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (bullpen) 30.1 11.57 1.48 2.67 1.95 2025 116.1 8.97 3.02 2.55 2.89 Bubic had a breakout first half of his 2025 season, earning him his first All-Star selection after Tommy John surgery caused him to miss most of the previous two seasons. After appearing out of the bullpen exclusively in 2024, he took advantage of his opportunity to return to the rotation in 2025. Unfortunately, a rotator cuff strain suffered in late July caused him to miss the rest of the 2025 season. He is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but enters his final year of arbitration and has been mentioned in trade rumors as the Royals explore adding an outfielder. Whether he's on the Royals or another team, hopefully, he can recreate his All-Star caliber performance post-recovery. 5. Noah Cameron Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 128.2 10.42 2.52 3.08 3.28 2025 138.1 7.42 2.80 2.99 4.18 Cameron was called up in late April when injuries started impacting the rotation, and he quickly proved he belonged. He finished the season leading the pitching staff in rWAR with 3.8 and finished fourth on the AL Rookie of the Year voting. If he can take the next step in his development and continue to limit base runners, he will be a strong asset to this rotation, especially for a fifth starter. Like Bubic, Cameron has also been mentioned in trade rumors. Major League Depth 1. Stephen Kolek Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (bullpen) 46.2 7.5 2.3 5.21 3.57 2025 112.2 6.2 2.5 3.51 3.82 Kolek was acquired by the Royals last year at the trade deadline. He was packaged with Ryan Bergert in exchange for Freddy Fermin. Kolek did a good job in stabilizing the rotation when other starters started heading to the injured list. In his five starts in Kansas City, he posted a 1.91 ERA in 33 innings. While his performance in Kansas City is likely to regress, Kolek showed what he can bring to this rotation once called upon. 2. Ryan Bergert Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Bergert was also acquired in the Fermin trade. Bergert had a decent first season in the major leagues, starting the season in the bullpen before earning a spot in the Padres’ rotation in June. Although Bergert struggled to go deep into games, only making it to six innings pitched once, after being dealt to the Royals, he got off to a good start, allowing two runs or fewer in his first six starts. He finished the year on the injured list with a right elbow strain. Barring a setback, he is set to enter spring training without limitations and challenge for a spot in the rotation. Prospects 1. Luinder Avila Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 87.0 8.8 4.9 4.14 - 2025 (bullpen) 14.0 10.3 3.9 1.29 2.14 Avila is the Royals’ #13 prospect. Read a detailed write-up of him in our breakdown of prospects ranked #11-15. 2. Ben Kudrna Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 115.1 9.3 4.1 4.68 - 2025 (minors) 105.1 9.1 4.3 5.81 - Ben Kudrna is the Royals' #5 prospect. Read a detailed write-up of him in our breakdown of prospects ranked #1-5. 3. Mason Black Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (SF) 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 (SF) 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Black was traded from the Giants on November 11 after being designated for assignment. Black has failed to impress at the major-league level with an ERA of 6.47 in 10 appearances across 2024 and 2025. His only win was, coincidentally, against the Royals in 2024. Black was once a top-10 prospect in the Giants' system, and is currently ranked 21 on MLB.com’s prospect rankings. Hopefully, a change of scenery will be good for Black. Probably In The Bullpen, But Could Start 1. Bailey Falter Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (PIT) 142.1 6.1 2.8 4.43 4.30 2025 125.1 5.8 3.3 4.45 4.94 Falter had little success after being acquired from Pittsburgh at last year’s trade deadline. In four appearances (two starts) with the Royals, he had an ERA of 11.25. He had much more success in his time with Pittsburgh with a 4.32 ERA in 60 appearances (57 starts). The Royals will hope that Falter’s end-of-the-season struggles were an outlier and that he will return to the standard he set in Pittsburgh. Falter does not have any minor league options remaining, so he will likely spend time in the bullpen as a long reliever option. View the full article

The 2026 American League Central is likely to be wide-open. The Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have each put together two straight winning seasons, but each time, they benefited from the extreme weakness of the Chicago White Sox. In 2025, none of them won more than 88 games. The Twins are stuck very much in the middle, but they do have some chance of putting together a good enough team to compete in the Central in 2026, even as they change direction and attempt to recover from two straight disappointing campaigns. Most fans expect little activity from the Twins this offseason, but then, most expect little activity from the other three pretenders to the crown, too. Detroit has already brought back (albeit in a passive way, by having each opt in at significant salaries) Jack Flaherty and Gleyber Torres, but they don't have the flexibility to make another big splash. Nor can Cleveland or Kansas City make major outlays to bolster the rosters they've constructed. Whatever the Twins do spend will go further than it might in other divisions. They're likely to sign a couple of free agents, even if it takes until the endgame of the offseason (as it has in each of the last two winters) and those players sign one-year deals for low salaries. Specifically, they can go shopping in the cheapest aisle of the hot stove marketplace, because it's also the place where the things they need most are stocked. Here are three relievers who could help the Twins make an unexpected playoff push in 2026; who would be lovely trade chips if the season breaks bad; and who fit the team's philosophy of pitching perfectly. The Twins love a good changeup, and all three of these guys have one. Tommy Kahnle No pitcher in baseball throws the changeup more than Kahnle. In fact, it's barely a changeup when he throws it, because it's the pitch batters have to be expecting each time he kicks and fires. Kahnle threw his change 85.6% of the time in 2025, with an extraordinary ability to kill spin. He doesn't use a split grip, but the way he sharply turns his hand outward as he delivers the change turns the pitch into something close to an old-fashioned forkball. OHl3eVhfVjBZQUhRPT1fQmdFRFhRVlZWUUFBRDFWV1VnQUhVMWRVQUZsWFUxSUFDMVZVQ1FKVVVBVmNBbE5S.mp4 The way that pitch tumbles allows Kahnle to succeed despite throwing it practically all the time. He induced whiffs on over 26% of opponents' swings on that offering in 2025, and has ridden the offering to a 3.61 career ERA. Next year will be his age-36 season, and he's coming off a down year in Detroit—one in which he had a 4.43 ERA. For the six years before that, though, he'd posted an aggregate 2.90 mark. Because he lost some velocity and saw his numbers slip this year, Kahnle will come very cheaply. He's probably not actually out of steam, though. There is that one other thing, though. New Twins bullpen coach LaTroy Hawkins famously called Kahnle "the worst teammate" he'd ever had during a broadcast in 2017. Kahnle himself shrugged that off even in the moment, and Hawkins said he'd put the divide between the two in the past, but presumably, there's still no relationship or positive feeling between them. It doesn't need to be disqualifying, because Kahnle and Hawkins butted heads in 2014. Each has lived a lot of years since, and Kahnle has been well-liked in several subsequent stops. It's possible he's evolved in ways that would impress and delight Hawkins. The two could well move beyond their past and form a productive partnership. Before signing Kahnle, though, the team would need to talk to Hawkins. Luke Weaver It's a much more traditional pairing of fastball and change from Weaver. He throws a mid-90s fastball with good life about 60% of the time, and leans heavily on the changeup only as a complement thereto. Although he bloomed late, Weaver has been a sturdy presence in the Yankees bullpen for the last two-plus seasons. Discovering the right changeup changed his career. His pitch is much more of a power change, with fade and downward action but not the telltale, erratic tumble of the lower-spin split-change he used to employ. Batters whiff on this version of the cambio over 40% of the time, which has driven a 29.4% strikeout rate since he arrived in the Bronx. dnZCMWpfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdSV1VnVlZWQUFBRHdCUkJBQUhCd0VDQUFOVVVWWUFDbE1HQVZZR0NWQlRVd0ZR.mp4 Our DiamondCentric Top 50 Free Agents list ranked Weaver 37th and forecasted a two-year, $16-million deal for him this winter. That still looks like a reasonable projection. It's probably also the highest the Twins would go to get him, but Weaver would be an instant closer for the depleted relief corps. Kyle Finnegan Considering Finnegan is like studying the midpoint between Kahnle and Weaver. He uses his splitter more than Weaver uses his change, but less than Kahnle does. Kahnle is 36; Weaver is 32; Finnegan is 34. The former Nationals closer came to Detroit at the trade deadline in July and enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. He throws harder than either of the others and has a highly kinetic delivery, launching himself at the batter in a way that makes his sharply sinking splitter especially deceptive. WEQyZDJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3RllWVkFIVXdBQVhGTldCd0FIQUFKVUFGaFFBVmNBVmxkVEJGY01VQUFHQmxGZQ==.mp4 Way down at 48th on the DiamondCentric Top 50, Finnegan is projected for a one-year deal worth $6 million. If he actually signs for anything in that range, he'd be perfect for the Twins. He'd be eminently tradeable, if it came to that, but he'd also deliver high-octane heat and that swing-and-miss splitter to a pen that has missed those things since the trades that sent away Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. The Twins threw more offspeed pitches than all teams but the Angels and Tigers in 2025. They love changeups and splitters, not only for their ability to keep hitters off a good fastball, but for the way they thwart opposite-handed batters. Finnegan and Weaver have huge platoon splits, but they go in the opposite of the usual direction: they're better against lefties than righties. Kahnle has only occasionally been that good against lefties, but his change plays against righties, too. All three of these hurlers would be solid back-end relief options for the Twins, who need to be better than average at converting late leads into wins if they want to sneak to the front of the crowded but unintimidating AL Central. None will come at great expense. While it might be a quiet winter for Derek Falvey and Company, even on a tight budget, opportunities abound. View the full article

On November 26, news broke that the Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, pending the results of a physical. If completed, the deal would be the most significant financial commitment that Toronto has made to a free agent. According to multiple websites, including DiamondCentric, FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors, the top three MLB-proven free-agent starters were Cease, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez. From Toronto’s perspective, what separated Cease from Valdez and Suárez? Let us start with the basics. Cease is a seven-year MLB veteran with career ERA, xERA, and FIP marks of 3.88, 3.66, and 3.67, respectively. Valdez has eight MLB seasons on his resume and has posted career ERA, xERA, and FIP metrics of 3.36, 3.76, and 3.51, respectively. Suárez has generated ERA, xERA, and FIP numbers of 3.38, 3.61, and 3.54 during his eight-year MLB career. Those xERA and FIP numbers would make any of these starters attractive to MLB teams. Let us focus on the seasons post-2021, when all three pitchers became full-time members of a starting rotation. Accordingly, behold Table 1. I used ERA- and FIP- instead of ERA and FIP to account for park factors and run-scoring environments across different seasons. I was unable to find an xERA- equivalent. One can note a slight difference in FIP- between these starters during the 2022-2025 period. According to xERA, Cease (3.40) has pitched better than Valdez (3.69) and Suárez (3.74). If one considers ERA-, Cease does not look as attractive as Valdez or Suárez. Cease’s 2025 112 ERA- and 2023 107 ERA- raise a Spockian eyebrow. However, BABIP is a factor. Cease’s career BABIP is .295. Yet, in 2025 and 2023, his BABIPs were .320 and .330, respectively. Those elevated BABIP numbers suggest that Cease experienced a bit of bad luck or poor defence behind him. Regarding defence, the fielders behind him in 2022 and 2024 posted OAA numbers of +1 and -2, respectively. In 2023 and 2025, Cease’s defence generated OAA marks of -7 in both years. It is impossible to quantify the impact of luck on Cease’s elevated BABIP, but the OAA numbers show that poor defence probably boosted his 2025 and 2023 ERAs. For comparison purposes, Valdez’s 2025 BABIP was .297, and Suárez's was .317, both of which were 15 points higher than their career marks before 2025. Cease’s 2025 BABIP was 30 points higher than his pre-2025 career BABIP. Also, the 2025 defences behind Valdez and Suárez posted OAA marks of +7 and 0, respectively. Therefore, all factors considered, Cease’s 2022-2025 ERA-, FIP-, and xERA scores are comparable to those of Valdez and Suárez. A quick word on Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. Please take a look at Table 2. In 2025, Cease and Valdez were above average according to Stuff+, and Suárez produced the best Location+ mark among starters. All three excel at the factors considered by Pitching+. Based on these models, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were, overall, particularly good in 2025. Okay, what is the first separator? Glance upon Table 3! Cease and Valdez have been exceptionally durable. Since 2022, Cease’s 130 starts are the second most in MLB, Valdez’s 121 starts are the 11th highest, and Suárez's 104 starts rank 34th. Regarding innings, Valdez is #2, Cease #7, and Suárez #31. Suárez has not been as durable as Cease or Valdez. In 2022, 2024, and 2025, he was on the IL due to back issues, totalling 87 days. In 2023, Suárez had two stints on the IL: 45 days with an arm ailment and 15 days because of a hamstring injury. Durability is the first separator between Cease and Suárez. Gaze upon Table 4, as we have another separator: Cease's strikeout rate over the past four seasons is 29.2%, much higher than Valdez's (23.9%) and Suárez's (22.0%). Among all pitchers, in 2025, Cease’s K% ranked in the 89th percentile, whereas Valdez and Suárez both ranked in the 55th percentile. A metric related to K% is Whiff%. Concerning 2025 Whiff%, Cease ranked in the 95th percentile among all pitchers, while Valdez was 59th and Suárez 24th. For the Blue Jays, who emphasize a low K%, high contact rate, and OBP when it comes to hitting, seeking the opposite attributes in a pitcher would be logical. Hence, Cease’s high-ranking K% and Whiff% would make him stand out for Toronto compared to Valdez and Suárez. Okay, we must talk about Cease’s BB% because it is high (in the 20th percentile in 2025). Cease’s BB% ranking pales in comparison to Suárez's (86th percentile) and even Valdez's (40th percentile). However, there are two positives of note. First, pitching coach Pete Walker has a history of helping pitchers lower their BB%. Remember Robbie Ray, a high K% and BB% starter? From 2018 to 2020, Ray posted a 30.7 K% but a 13.1 BB%. However, after working with Walker, Ray generated a 32.1 K% and 6.7 BB% on his way to the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with Toronto. Second, despite the high BB%, Cease’s 2025 K-BB% was 19.9%, which ranked 24th among the 166 starters with at least 60 innings. Valdez and Suárez ranked 69th and 40th, respectively. Therefore, Cease’s higher K-BB% would be attractive to a team like the Blue Jays that seeks a high K% (net of BB%) from their starters. Concerning K% and BB%, a final comment. Table 3 shows that, in terms of average innings per 2025 start, Valdez and Suárez had noticeably longer outings than Cease. A likely reason for Cease’s shorter outings was his average of 4.23 pitches-per-plate appearance (“P/PA”). The P/PA marks of Valdez and Suárez were 3.61 and 3.74, respectively. There are two likely reasons for Cease’s higher P/PA. First, one cause could be his high K%. According to Baseball Savant, in 2025, among the 170 starters who faced at least 250 batters, Cease had the 10th-highest K%. Notably, seven of these 10 starters had P/PA rates above the median (3.88). Second, of the 25 starters with the highest BB% (Cease was #24), 19 had P/PA numbers higher than the median. Accordingly, given Cease’s higher K% and BB% rates, we should expect shorter outings from Cease compared to Valdez and Suárez. I guess Toronto can accept shorter outings, given all the other positives Cease brings to the table. Yet, if Walker can work his magic with Cease, a lower BB% should lead to longer outings. Another element of Cease’s performance is his ability to positively contribute to controlling the running game. A hat tip to Sportsnet’s Chris Black (@DownToBlack) for highlighting Cease’s effectiveness in this area. During the 2022-2025 period, according to Baseball Savant, Cease ranked second in Net Bases Prevented (“NBP”) with a score of 25. Valdez (-14) was 482nd of 503 pitchers, and Suárez (8) was 60th. This past season, Toronto’s pitchers (starters and relievers) generated a -11 NBP, which ranked 22nd. Among Toronto’s notable starters in 2025, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt each posted -5 NBPs, Eric Lauer a -3, and Max Scherzer a -2. Bowden Francis and José Berríos had +3 NBPs, and Shane Bieber posted +1. Therefore, Toronto’s addition of Cease should improve the team's effectiveness at limiting the running game of other teams more than either Valdez or Suárez. The Last Word When the free agency period commenced this offseason, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were at the top of the class. All three starters have produced excellent FIP-, xERA, and Pitching+ numbers in their careers. Yet, it is understandable why Toronto would prefer Cease over Valdez and Suárez. Compared to Valdez, Cease is two years younger; has better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% numbers; and is superior at neutralizing the running game. Judged against Suárez, Cease has been more durable; has a better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% profile; and has proven more effective at controlling the running game. It is clear why Cease stood above Valdez and Suárez in the eyes of the Blue Jays. View the full article

It’s no secret that the Boston Red Sox need a few additional reinforcements after the team finally returned to the postseason in 2025. The only position group that appears set as we move towards the 2026 season is the outfield and even then, someone from that group will likely need to be traded to bring in talent that can push the Red Sox over the edge in 2026. Obviously, there are a few names on the free-agent and trade markets that have experience in Boston, so running it back with them could prove intriguing during this opening phase of the team's competitive window. Let’s take a look at three names that could potentially be back in the fold once spring training starts in February. For this exercise, we'll stay away from top free-agent names like Alex Bregman that the team should obviously already be in conversations with, and instead focus on a few under-the-radar players. #3: Chris Martin, RHP Martin signed for the 2025 season with his hometown Texas Rangers, but was close to returning to the Red Sox before that deal was put on the table. He pitched his way to a 2.98 ERA over 42 1/3 innings pitched. He posted a 24.7% strikeout percentage against a 4.6 walk rate on the season and was one of the better relievers in baseball. He’s currently 39 and will turn 40 during the 2026 season, but if he doesn’t hang up his cleats, he could be interested in a one-year reunion with a team that could be poised to steamroll its way to the World Series with just a few tweaks. Martin was a dependable arm out of the pen in 2023 and 2024 and can offer veteran leadership to a group of mostly young arms, outside of Aroldis Chapman. #2: Steven Matz, LHP In 2025, the Red Sox maybe had too many left-handed relievers. The bullpen was loaded with guys like Brennan Bernardino, Chris Murphy, Matz, and Justin Wilson. That doesn’t count guys like Sean Newcomb who didn’t stick with the team or when Payton Tolle shifted to the bullpen for the postseason. Now though? Chapman might be the lone lefty penciled into the Opening Day bullpen. He needs another southpaw to help set him up, and Matz was more than fine in his middle-relief role after he was acquired from the Cardinals at the 2025 trade deadline. He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he’s dependable and that’s what the Red Sox need through the middle innings. He’d likely come fairly cheap on a short-term deal, so there’s very limited downside to bringing Matz back into the fold, especially given his long experience as a starting pitcher. #1: Nathan Eovaldi, RHP The Rangers seem to be in a bit of an odd place at the moment. It’s hard to tell if they are playing for anything of note in 2026 or if they are approaching a full fire sale. They just traded Marcus Semien to the Mets, there are rumors surrounding Corey Seager, and they’ve non-tendered both Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. If the Rangers are indeed selling to rebuild, the Red Sox have to make a call about adding Eovaldi back to the rotation. Even with the addition of Sonny Gray, the Sox still need a true number two starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet, and Eovaldi checks that box. He didn’t post a full season in 2025, only appearing in 22 games for 130 innings pitched. In that time, though, he worked an incredible 1.73 ERA to go along with a 26% strikeout rate, a 4.2% walk rate, and a 3.7 fWAR. On top of all of that, he’s a former champion with the Red Sox and a postseason legend. Bringing him back won’t come cheap, even if the Rangers are selling, but he’s worth the investment. He’s signed through the 2027 season with a $25 million AAV. That's not ridiculously expensive — likely cheaper than the top free-agent starters on the market — and his pedigree speaks for itself. There are various other former Red Sox who could end up back in Boston this offseason, but if the front office is interested in bringing in former rostered members, then they need to be looking at the pitching market before anywhere else. Both the free-agent and trade markets have yet to really get moving, so it’s anyone’s guess as to which former members of the team could be returning for the 2026 season. View the full article

The realistic best-case scenario did not materialize for the Miami Marlins. They were hopeful that Devin Williams would be available at a sharply discounted rate coming off a career-worst 4.79 ERA in 2025. Alas, the market coveted his elite swing-and-miss ability and the New York Mets ultimately won the bidding with a three-year, $51 million deal. Who's still out there for the Marlins? We have to assume that former Met Edwin Díaz is out of their price range as he reportedly expects something in the five-year, $100 million range. These are the other MLB free agents who were primarily used as closers last season: RHP Robert Suarez (2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 27.9 K%, 3.16 WPA, 40 SV in 69.2 IP) RHP Pete Fairbanks (2.83 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 24.2 K%, 0.93 WPA, 27 SV in 60.1 IP) RHP Kyle Finnegan (3.47 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 24.0 K%, 0.84 WPA, 24 SV in 57.0 IP) RHP Emilio Pagán (2.88 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 30.0 K%, 1.09 WPA, 32 SV in 68.2 IP) RHP Kenley Jansen (2.59 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 24.4 K%, 3.46 WPA, 29 SV in 59.0 IP) The Marlins specifically have a dearth of reliable left-handers on their current bullpen depth chart. Although less likely to be used consistently in the ninth inning, that could make the likes of Danny Coulombe, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Ferguson, Gregory Soto, Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Chafin and Hoby Milner appealing on short-term contracts. View the full article

The automatic ball-strike challenge system (ABS) is coming to the major leagues in 2026 after being tested in the minor leagues for the last several years. That late-inning ball that should have been a strikeout to end the game, and the era of irate managers kicking dirt over home plate may be winding down. Davy Andrews of FanGraphs wrote a piece discussing some numbers on challenge rate, success rate, and more at the MLB level. The challenge rate has little player-by-player data available, so until the 2026 season begins in earnest, we are going to take a look at the stats we do have and see if it’s time for Salvador Perez to hand the reins over to the next generation. Perez is coming into his age-36 season and entering 2026 as one of the worst framers in baseball, per Baseball Savant’s framing value ranking, 49th out of 57 catchers in 2025 at -7 runs. His blocking is also at the bottom of the barrel per Savant’s blocking value ranking, second-to-last at -15 runs, with only Agustin Ramirez behind him, who is almost twice as bad. The shortened 2020 season and 2024 were the only years he had a positive framing run value, with his other years since 2018 not exceeding -6 runs. Carter Jensen, the only real competition for playing time behind the plate until 2023 1st-round pick Blake Mitchell, is ready. He doesn’t have the same sample size as Perez (225 pitches vs. 2,636), but he comes in at zero Catcher Runs, already above the league average of -1 run. Jensen’s blocking value (219 opportunities vs. Perez’s 3,365) came in at -1 runs, which ranks 75th out of 99 catchers that saw at least 100 pitches. Perez struggles to frame balls on his arm side of the plate; his biggest gap is shown in the shadow zone’s left and right portions of the zone, going from +3 runs on the left to -4 runs on the right. Jensen comes in right at zero runs for both. With the Royals projected to have three left-handed starters in 2026, it would make sense to use Perez on those days and Jensen with the right-handed starters, given each pitcher's pitch usage and arsenal, if we are maximizing shadow zone value. As a team, the Royals were first in the league in slider run value and third in changeup run value in 2025, but were 13th and 3rd in total usage, respectively. If the team chooses to increase the use of sliders across the board, that would provide another reason to maintain the Salvy-for-lefties and Jensen-for-righties setup. Part of framing’s value also comes from ensuring that strikes stay strikes, as Davy Andrews again mentions in this piece. This is where Perez shows a higher strike percentage, yet still has a lower run value of -2, versus Jensen’s zero runs. Jensen shows his advantage as you get further outside the zone compared to Perez: again, zero runs for Jensen vs -4 runs for Perez. This chart from Baseball Savant’s framing leaderboard shows the disparity of how far inside vs. outside the strike zone you are. Noticeably, Jensen’s called strike percent is only 68 percent on pitches 1-2 inches inside the zone, while Perez sits at 77 percent, both below league average at 79 percent. Jensen has the advantage in every way outside the zone pitches, so that he will steal more strikes than Perez, but we need strikes to be strikes. Armed with this data, I don’t expect the Royals to make a big change purely for framing or defensive reasons. It’s going to come from the fact that Perez is turning 36 and his offensive production is naturally declining. While he has stayed healthier the last two seasons, much of this can likely be attributed to the shift to first base and designated hitter to provide more rest and keep his bat in the lineup, even though he has been most productive as a catcher. wRC+ by position and year 2024 2025 C 124 (90 G) 107 (92 G) 1B 111 (47 G) 88 (28 G) DH 97 (23 G) 73 (38 G) Jensen is forcing his way into the lineup, given his offensive production and league-average defense at a minimum. Steamer is projecting him for 68 games, and the FanGraphs depth charts project him for 91 games. If he splits half of these at DH and half at catcher, it’ll provide ample opportunity to rest both Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino as the three cycle through catcher, first base, and designated hitter. With Perez signing a two-year extension, he’s not going anywhere just yet, but this will give Jensen a chance to learn from the captain before taking over full-time. Once Mitchell is deemed ready to join the majors, this puzzle gets a whole lot more complicated, but we will leave that for another time. View the full article

The Twins' farm system continues to churn out intriguing players, and 2026 could be a year where several under-the-radar names take a significant jump. Minnesota leaned heavily on its young depth last season, and the front office would love nothing more than to see another wave push forward. Each player below sits at a different stage of professional development. One arrived in the organization as part of last season’s trade deadline overhaul. Another was selected in last July’s draft, and has yet to make his professional debut. The final player signed as a teenager and made his Stateside debut in 2025. Here are three prospects who delivered encouraging signs in 2025 and now look poised to take the next step. Kendry Rojas, LHP (Current TD Rank: 8) His 2025 Performance: Rojas joined the Twins as the key piece in the return for Louis Varland at the trade deadline. Minnesota spoke highly of him after the deal, and they pushed him aggressively to Triple-A St. Paul, where the 22-year-old was over five years younger than the average age of the competition. For the year, he tossed 69 innings and posted a 4.70 ERA, with a 28.8 K% and a 10.3 BB%. His strikeout rate took a healthy leap (up 1.8% compared to 2024), thanks to a sharper slider and better pitch sequencing. Rojas did not dominate every start, but he showed much more poise working out of traffic and limiting damage. Why He Could Break Out in 2026: Rojas feels like the type of pitcher who might take off once the command settles into a stable place, especially as he gets a full season at Triple A and more time to work with the Twins’ development staff. The raw ingredients are undeniably exciting. His fastball has life at the top of the zone, and his slider flashes above average, with a late-biting shape that produces plenty of awkward swings. With a full offseason to refine his changeup and continue building confidence, he could become one of the most talked-about left-handed arms in the system. If he carries the momentum from late 2025 into next spring, he could be a top-100 prospect by midseason. Riley Quick, RHP (Current TD Rank: 13) His 2025 Performance: The Twins drafted Quick with the 36th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. They held off on having him make his professional debut, after he had tossed 62 innings during his final collegiate season. In 14 games, he posted a 3.92 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and 25.9% strikeout rate. The most significant step came when he noticeably reduced his walk rate (8.9%) and looked more comfortable challenging hitters early in counts. While he may not have posted eye-popping numbers, Quick showed the tools of a pitcher growing into his frame and learning how to pitch with intent. Why He Could Break Out in 2026: If you are looking for a classic pitching prospect trajectory, Quick fits the mold perfectly. His stuff is trending up as he adds strength and leans into a compact delivery that the organization believes can lead to even more velocity. He had Tommy John surgery in 2024, and many pitchers see improvements in command and stuff as they move further away from that operation. The cutter-slider combination already gives him multiple ways to finish at-bats. With more physical development ahead and a clearer understanding of how his arsenal plays, he could emerge as one of the more exciting right-handed arms in the lower minors. Based on his college experience, he could reach Double-A Wichita in the second half of 2026—or move even faster. Eduardo Beltre, OF (Current TD Rank: NA) His 2025 Performance: Beltre delivered one of the most intriguing stat lines in the lower levels in 2025. Splitting time between the Florida Complex League and the Florida State League, he showed flashes of an impressive all-around skill set. He was making his Stateside debut, after impressing in the Dominican Summer League in 2024 with a 1.071 OPS. The 18-year-old struggled to reproduce those totals with a .623 OPS in 78 games. However, he was one of the youngest players at both levels, with nearly 96% of his plate appearances coming against older pitchers. Beltre’s speed also stood out, as he improved his reads in the outfield and grew more comfortable on the bases (25-for-29 in stolen base attempts). Why He Could Break Out in 2026: Beltre has the type of athletic foundation that gives evaluators plenty to dream on. His bat speed jumps off the screen, and the Twins believe there is more power to unlock as he continues to add strength. Combine that with above-average speed, and the ingredients for a dynamic outfielder start to take shape. The next step will be to find consistency in his approach, since pitchers will challenge him more aggressively as he moves up. If he makes the necessary adjustments and continues to tap into his natural tools, Beltre could make a rapid climb up the organizational rankings by the end of 2026. The Twins will rely heavily on their young depth over the next few seasons, and these three prospects have a chance to push themselves into that mix. A strong offseason and a little momentum could turn them into the most talked-about names in the system by this time next year. Will these prospects break out in 2026? Who will you be keeping an eye on in the Twins’ farm system? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

It didn't take long for smoke signals about payroll pressure to emerge from the Brewers' camp this offseason. Those concerns are probably overblown, but they reflect a truth about winning in Milwaukee that doesn't apply to many other teams. It's possible that the same constraints that have compelled the Crew to forge a specific mode of operation over the last decade (and the same ruthless devotion to that system that has led to previous trades of this ilk) will lead the team to trade Freddy Peralta this winter, even if they don't actually have to do so. Few teams are harder to read than the Brewers, because baseball operations chief Matt Arnold runs one of the game's tightest ships when it comes to preventing leaks to the media. He's also a shrewd manipulator of the discourse around his team. Even if he had a budget far larger than he felt was needed, he wouldn't say so. That would only give agents (for players available in free agency and those with whom he might wish to sign extensions) and trade partners more leverage. Whether Arnold had anything to do with the report in The Athletic that downplayed the team's capacity this winter or not, that notion made its way through the rumor mill, without Arnold attached to it. It confirms things outsiders tend to believe about Milwaukee anyway, so it will be viewed as credible even if it isn't true. The team can use the rumor to avoid being bidded up on the market, while they lurk as unexpected players on certain free agents because they actually have more to spend than others believe. However, it inarguably made a major difference when Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Brewers for $22.025 million last month. He's now soaking up at least 15% of the team's payroll, and while they have lots of cost-controlled young players who aren't yet eligible for arbitration, they also have a growing list of somewhat expensive players. William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, Woodruff, Peralta, and Christian Yelich head the list, but don't ignore the fact that Jackson Chourio's salary rises to $7 million in 2026, too. If the team wants to make any material improvements to their roster, they might need to subtract some money in the process. Peralta is the trade candidate who offers both the opportunity for a high-end return and substantial cost savings, if dealt. He's the player for whom the team could get big value, making themselves even more nimble and dynamic for the next half-decade. He and Woodruff are the only ones whose value is confined to 2026, since they'll each hit free agency thereafter. While a Peralta trade is not necessary (and would be difficult, for many within the organization, because of what Peralta means to the clubhouse), it might turn out to be the right move—and Arnold nearly always makes the right move, even when it hurts. Here, therefore, are five teams who look like strong suitors for Peralta. Baltimore Orioles Fans in and around Baltimore are ravenous for a big move—a massive, multi-year financial commitment to a free agent. They want head honcho Mike Elias to announce, in effect, that his team is once again one of baseball's heavy hitters. That's not Elias's style, though. He might make an exception for the perfect player, but it's telling that—two years after trading for Corbin Burnes and one year after letting Burnes walk via free agency, while signing Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, Andrew Kittredge and Tyler O'Neill—the Orioles started this winter by trading oft-injured pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for outfielder Taylor Ward and signing closer Ryan Helsley to a short-term deal. The prospect pipeline has been spilling forth young hitters for a few years already, but the Orioles' farm system remains reasonably deep. They also have young players with big-league experience under their belt who could be good fits for the Brewers' needs. Outfielders Colton Cowser, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers; uptrend pitching prospects Nestor German and Braxton Bragg; and a likely Competitive Balance Round A draft pick are all pieces Milwaukee and Baltimore could discuss. Detroit Tigers One of the nice things about Peralta, relative to other players on the verge of free agency, is that he's very affordable. At just $8 million, his price tag for 2026 is much lower than those of many similarly talented pitchers in their final seasons of team control. (For instance, Burnes made $15.6 million in 2024, for Baltimore.) That widens the pool of plausible suitors, to include teams like the Tigers. After Jack Flaherty opted in on the second year of his deal and Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer, Detroit faces some payroll constraints of their own, but they're very much in the mix for the 2026 AL Central crown. Should they trade Tarik Skubal—but even if they don't—they'll need an infusion of high-quality starting rotation depth to position themselves for a deeper run next October. Detroit's farm system is much stronger than the Orioles', too. Milwaukee could target high-end catching prospects Thayron Liranzo or Josue Briceño, with an eye toward replacing Contreras with the combination of Jeferson Quero and one of the two youngsters in 2027. Alternatively, they could focus on a big-leaguer like Zach McKinstry, and/or thr Tigers' own tradable draft pick for 2026. Houston Astros No team with whom Peralta could land this winter would be a better match between player and new team, in terms of pitching philosophy. The Astros love smallish, highly athletic pitchers with a feel for spin and a willingness to issue the occasional walk as the price of missing as many bats as possible. Despite being a dynastic force in one of the league's biggest markets, they're also under some financial strain this winter. Reportedly, Houston doesn't want to exceed the lowest competitive-balance tax threshold, but that ties their hands, and they need to replace the departing Framber Valdez. Houston is shopping center fielder Jake Meyers, a valuable, well-rounded player—but Meyers isn't much of a fit for Milwaukee. Peralta could be so perfect a fit in Houston that the Astros would entertain getting a third team involved, sending Meyers elsewhere while the Brewers rake in players from the third party in exchange for Peralta. Failing that, though, Milwaukee could try to buy low on the talented Cam Smith, or load up on the depth in the upper levels of Houston's system. Pitchers AJ Blubaugh, Bryce Mayer and Miguel Ullola and top positional prospects Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton would all come up in conversations between the teams. New York Yankees Though they're a fairly robust player development machine, the Yankees are going through one of their periodic downcycles in terms of prospect depth. They lack both expendable young players on the big-league roster and compelling pieces in the middle ranges of their top prospect list. Their best prospect, George Lombard Jr., would not be available in a Peralta trade, and third-ranked prospect Dax Kilby is too far away from the majors to headline a Peralta deal from the Brewers' perspective. The sweet spot is Puerto Rican righthander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, a lanky five-pitch starter who got to Triple A at the end of 2025 and has a chance to be contributing in the majors by the end of 2026. There are several other promising arms in the upper levels of the minors for New York, so a deal is possible, but the team's lingering injury concerns—they'll enter spring training without certainty about the timelines of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Chase Hampton—could make it hard for them to let their best healthy young hurlers go. Texas Rangers Much like the Astros, the Rangers want to contend in 2026, but they're up against the tax threshold and don't want to spend what it looks like it will take to win the AL West again. Therefore, Peralta's cost-effective upside has to be highly appealing. Like the Yankees and Astros, Texas has a thinned-out farm system, showing the ravages of years of trying to win in the short term and the imbalance of the rules that dole out extra picks and international spending allotments to small-market teams at the expense of large-market ones. Unlike New York, though, the Rangers have lots of young players on the edges of their roster who could appeal to the Brewers in a deal. Starters Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz; twice-stumbling former top prospect Justin Foscue; and a bevy of relievers could be in play. The tough part would be finding a headliner who suits what the Brewers want to do in 2026; the Rangers' best talents are a couple years away. Crucially, all these teams play in the American League. The Brewers could trade Peralta to the Mets, the Dodgers or the Giants, but they could meet any of them as early as the Wild Card Series. Sending Peralta to the junior circuit would ensure that the Brewers only encounter him in 2026 if they reach the World Series, and they should be able to extract a comparable return from one of these suitors. That makes these five teams the natural landing spots, if Peralta does end up anywhere but Milwaukee for the final year of his contract. View the full article

As the Chicago Cubs firmly enter offseason mode, they’ll explore all avenues in an attempt to make the team better for 2026. One of those avenues is via trade, which can sometimes involve pieces at the minor-league level, and can sometimes involve players at the big-league level, like the recent Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo trade. In this article, we’ll take a look at the Cubs’ 10 most important players at the big league level, and consider their overall likelihood of being traded this winter. You can find part one of this series, where we looked at the back half of the Cubs’ top 10 players, here. Today, we’ll take a peek at the top five. 5 - Dansby Swanson Pros: Dansby Swanson is an incredibly productive player. Since signing with the Cubs before the 2023 season, his 12.4 FanGraphs WAR is 25th-best in baseball, ahead of names like Alex Bregman, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Since 2020, the shortstop is 13th in fWAR. Cons: So much of Swanson’s value is in his defense, and he just had his worst defensive season since 2021. According to Baseball Savant, he was worth just three runs above average in the field in 2025. That is still a good number, though it is a concerning drop from being worth 12 runs above average in 2024. The bat has never been anything other than average to slightly above average. Defense, and the ability to defend at a premium position like shortstop, is his carrying tool. He’ll be 32 on Opening Day of next season, so it is fair to wonder how much longer he’ll be an above-average shortstop. Not to mention, he still has another four years and $109m left on his contract. Trade Likelihood: Low The contact is just too much for a player that has most likely hit his decline phase. If the Cubs do look to explore a deal here, it’ll most likely be to get off of the money, rather than to make the team better. Dansby Swanson, while an imperfect player, is still a good one, and he can still help them win in 2026. 4 - Nico Hoerner Pros: I could wax poetic about Nico Hoerner for more than just the one paragraph that I have here. He is 18th in baseball in fWAR since his first fully healthy season on the North Side in 2022. According to a recent article from Bruce Levine, Cubs officials view him as a leader. He moved from shortstop to second base with no complaints and has gone on to win two Gold Gloves at his new position. Cons: The Gold Glover will turn 29 next season, and while that isn’t exactly old, it is fair to wonder how much of his profile will age particularly well. He is a speed and glove-first player whose offensive profile walks a razor-thin line. He offers very little slugging and relies on a lot of groundballs and line drives to find space for singles. Trade Likelihood: Medium I, personally, would be heartbroken if the Cubs traded Hoerner, but I am also willing to concede that it might make sense. He’ll be a free agent after the 2026 season, and if the Cubs won’t give him another contract, they could look to recoup some of his value by dealing him for pitching help. 3 - Cade Horton Pros: The rookie was an absolute horse for the Cubs in the second half, pitching to a 1.03 ERA in 61 1/3 innings. His absence in the postseason was very much felt, and given that it was just his first year in the big leagues, the Cubs will have control of him for a while. Cons: His absence in the postseason, for one. The 2025 campaign was the first season of his professional career where he eclipsed 100 innings pitched. Injuries seem to be a recurring theme for the former Oklahoma Sooner. His second-half production took a unique shape, as well. Nobody has the true talent of a 1.03 ERA pitcher; his 2.79 FIP suggested some room for regression, and his strikeout rate of 23.5 percent was simply good, not great. Trade Likelihood: Low Horton, for better or worse, is the Cubs’ guy. They took a slight risk by taking him in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, and in 2025, it looked like a great decision. So much of the Cubs’ success in 2026 will depend on the young right-hander. You can pencil him into the front half of the starting rotation for next season and beyond. 2 - Michael Busch Pros: Busch took a huge step forward in the power department in 2025, going from 21 home runs in 2024 to 34 this past season. His strikeout rate went from one of the worst in the league to simply a little bit below average, and as a result of those two things, he went from a 118 wRC+ to a 140 wRC+. Cons: Michael Busch plays first base, and simply put, he’ll have to consistently post seasons with a 140 wRC+ to truly be a very valuable player. By wRC+, he was the ninth-best hitter in baseball, however, by fWAR, he was just the 45th-most valuable. At 28, he’s also old for someone entering his third full season in the big leagues. He’s still a great player, but the reason to be skeptical with Busch is the same reason why teams have been hesitant to give a big contract to Pete Alonso. Trade Likelihood: Low-to-Medium While Busch had a really good profile at the plate in 2025, if the Cubs don’t believe he is truly a 140 wRC+ type of hitter, they could look to cash in on the young first baseman now. I’d still be shocked if it happened, but for someone so obsessed with value, I can see Jed Hoyer deciding to deal Busch at a time when his value will most likely never be higher. 1 - Pete Crow-Armstrong Pros: Crow-Armstrong was in the MVP discussion after a sterling first half of the season that saw him put up a batting line of .265/.302/.544. Combine that with his defensive value and blazing speed on the basepaths, and he was one of the best players in baseball. Cons: He was one of the worst offensive players in the second half of the season, with a batting line of .216/.262/.372. He still gives value because of the defense and speed, but this is a guy that just looked completely hopeless at the plate at times. Trade Likelihood: Low The error bars on Pete Crow-Armstrong’s career are very wide. Is he the guy who carried the Cubs in the first half? Or the one that contributed to so much of their struggles in the second half? Either way, he’ll always give value because of the defense. I imagine if the Cubs did look to deal him, though, they’d find all sorts of differing opinions on what his value really is. Combine that with the fact that he is a fan favorite, and I just can’t see a trade that sends him out of town happening. The potential is way too tantalizing. View the full article

Since 2019, the Blue Jays have had the luxury of having Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette anchor their infield. The team’s glaring issue in the infield has been a lack of stability at third base since Matt Chapman left, along with a rotating door at second. Enter Nolan Arenado, a player whose name has been synonymous with elite defense and consistent offensive production for over a decade. With the St. Louis Cardinals signaling a rebuild and Arenado reportedly open to expanding his list of teams to whom he'd accept a trade, the Jays have a unique opportunity to acquire a future Hall of Famer. Arenado fits the Jays’ roster and their financial and performance needs, and the trade price might be within the team’s means. Arenado has two guaranteed years remaining on his current deal. The details of his contract are complicated, but in simplest terms, he will make a $27 million salary in 2026 (although $5 million of that will be paid by the Rockies and $6 million is deferred) and a $15 million salary in 2027. Arendo holds a full no-trade clause, but recent reports suggest he would be willing to waive it in the right situation. The Cardinals, after trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox and signaling a payroll reset, appear motivated to move Arenado before the start of the season. Arenado’s offensive numbers dipped last season. He slashed .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs and 52 RBIs, marking his weakest full season since his rookie year. However, his defensive value remains strong. He is projected to be at least a top-25 third baseman next season. For a Jays team that ranked near the bottom in third base production last season, Arenado could represent a meaningful upgrade. Advanced metrics underscore Arenado’s value. In 2025, he posted +6 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), ranking among the top third basemen in MLB. These numbers highlight his ability to convert difficult plays into outs, a skill that directly reduces opponent scoring opportunities. For a team like the Jays that relies heavily on pitching efficiency, Arenado’s glove could be the difference in tight games against division rivals. If the season were to start tomorrow, the Jays would likely continue with Ernie Clement at third, occasionally spelled by Addison Barger. They are a serviceable duo, but are not elite. Arenado is arguably one of the best defenders in MLB history. He has won 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves during his career. Overall, the Jays’ third base defense was solid last season but not exceptional. Clement’s reliability helped stabilize the infield, but Barger’s occasional difficulties posed some concern. That inconsistency was exacerbated by injuries during the season, which forced John Schneider to shuffle his lineup. The Jays finished the year with strong team defensive metrics (+40 Fielding Run Value overall), but there is no question that an upgrade at third base could be key to sustaining success in 2026. On many occasions throughout 2025, the Jays’ defence kept the team in games when the bats weren’t humming, and if they want to repeat last year’s success, that defence will need to be at least as good. Arenado would also provide veteran leadership. He was part of playoff teams in Colorado and St. Louis, so he could bring that experience and leadership to the Toronto clubhouse. He is known for his work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader and could easily slide into the role that players like Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Isiah Kiner-Falefa provided last season. The price for Arenado might not be as high as it would have been during his prime. Arenado saw his OPS+ drop last season, but he remains capable of hitting more than 20 home runs and providing over 70 RBIs if healthy. His hard-hit rate has declined, but a move to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre could help. Even at his current level, Arenado should offer more offensive production than the combo of Clement and Barger. Another bonus for the Jays would be that Arenado has the skills to play first base as well, providing some defensive insurance if Guerrero needs a break or gets injured. Arenado could also stabilize the left side of the infield if Bichette doesn’t re-sign and provides options for the Jays should they wish to further test drive Andrés Giménez or Clement at short. Arenado’s remaining salary would be manageable for the Jays to take on. St. Louis might even agree to cover part of the cost. The Jays have shown a willingness to absorb contracts, such as in last offseason’s Giménez trade, and could justify this move as a short-term investment to maximize their competitive window. The biggest hurdle is Arenado’s no-trade clause. Historically, he has preferred destinations like Los Angeles or Boston, but recent comments suggest he may expand his list. Toronto’s playoff aspirations and current roster could make the Jays an attractive option, but that doesn’t mean the front office won’t need to sell Arenado on the fit and possibly sweeten the deal with financial incentives. The trade cost for Arenado wouldn't be interesting. Ultimately, a deal like this would balance the Cardinals’ desire to clear payroll with Toronto’s desire for immediate impact. That said, acquiring Arenado wouldn't come without risk. He turns 35 in April, and his offensive contributions may now be on the decline. But remember, analysts said the same about George Springer heading into last season. If Arenado can perform as he has in the past, he would provide a potent bat, veteran leadership and an elite glove to the Jays to support another potential deep run in 2026. While his contract, age, and no-trade clause pose challenges, the Cardinals’ rebuild and Arenado’s openness to a change create a window for the Jays. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have been somewhat active early this offseason, protecting six prospects from Rule 5 Draft eligibility; trading pitching prospect Jacob Kisting to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed reliever Eric Orze; and swapping Triple-A utility player Payton Eeles for former Baltimore Orioles backup catcher Alex Jackson. More moves should occur this offseason. Still, it's vital to take note of where the club's 26-man roster currently stands. Which players could form Minnesota's 2026 Opening Day roster, if the season began tomorrow? Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Alex Jackson Since 2023, catcher has been the easiest position to project for the Twins, with Jeffers and veteran backstop Christian Vàzquez fixed in a 50/50 split at the position. With Vázquez parting ways with the organization this offseason, team decision-makers elected to bring in a new veteran backstop to team with Jeffers. Expected to earn roughly $1.8 million in arbitration this offseason, Jackson is a much more cost-effective option than Vázquez, who was earning $10 million annually. At this stage of their respective careers, Jackson is a defensive upgrade from Vàzquez. He has more pop in his bat, though the utility of that power is limited by a catastrophic 40.7% career strikeout rate. Jeffers will be a bellcow behind the plate for the first time in his career. As the sturdy backstop enters his final season of team control, the front office would be wise to lock him up. Infielders (6): Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Ryan Fitzgerald, Edouard Julien As things stand, Minnesota's primary infield configuration entering next season is clear-cut, with Clemens at first base, Keaschall at second, Lewis patrolling third, and Lee at shortstop. Team decision-makers could bring in a right-handed-hitting corner infielder like Miguel Andujar or Rhys Hoskins to pair with Clemens at first. Unless and until that happens, though, the club's primary starting infield group is set. Fitzgerald is penciled in as the backup shortstop and third baseman. Yet, the front office could elect to acquire a higher-upside option like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Jordan Lawlar, pushing Fitzgerald back to the fringes of the 40-man roster. Julien could enter the season occasionally mixing in at first base, second base, and designated hitter. Still, given his poor performance at the plate and in the field the past two seasons, that spot on the roster is written in pencil, not pen. Julien is out of minor-league options, meaning the club would risk losing him on waivers if they elect not to award him a 26-man roster spot out of spring training. That risk shouldn't stop the front office from scouring the trade market and free agency for an infielder with a higher offensive and defensive floor. Outfielders (5): Austin Martin, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Alan Roden, Trevor Larnach James Outman is a notable omission from this five-player corps. The left-handed-hitting outfielder struggled in his brief stint with Minnesota, generating an alarming 52 wRC+ and 43.3% strikeout rate over 104 plate appearances. Outman is a viable defender at all three outfield positions. Still, given his significant offensive struggles over the past two seasons, I project the 28-year-old to be the odd player out of the Twins' outfield crunch. Getting the nod over Outman, Roden could mix in at center (as Buxton's backup) and right field, while forming a platoon in left with Martin. Despite being listed as an outfielder, Larnach projects to be the club's primary designated hitter against right-handed starting pitching. The left-handed-hitting veteran could be moved this offseason. Strangely, though, Minnesota appeared to hitch its wagon to Larnach for at least one more season after tendering him a 2026 contract, which (despite popular sentiment) is a sound decision. The 28-year-old has been an above-average hitter (111 wRC+ over 967 plate appearances) the past two seasons. Wallner will enter the season as the club's primary right fielder, hoping to regain his well-above-average 2023 and 2024 form at the plate. The husky Minnesotan could also mix in at designated hitter with Larnach. Despite recent trade rumors, Buxton is expected to remain the Twins' center fielder, playing an integral role in their ability to (eventually) return to the postseason. Starting Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley Trade speculation will continue to swirl around López and Ryan all winter. The two will form one of the AL's best frontline duos as long as they remain with the organization. Ober is penciled in as Minnesota's third starter, hoping to rebound from his second-least effective season as a major-league starting pitcher. This trio could give Minnesota one of baseball's best rotations in 2026. Yet, questions surrounding roster status (López and Ryan) and effectiveness (Ober) raise significant questions about whether that outcome will become a reality next season. Woods Richardson impressed late last season, posting a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and a 38-to-11 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 2/3 innings after the trade deadline. The 25-year-old has become a fixture in Minnesota's starting rotation, earning the fourth spot entering next season while potentially developing into one of the club's frontline arms if López or Ryan are traded. If Bradley wins the fifth and final spot in the club's rotation, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Mick Abel will likely enter 2026 as the club's primary Triple-A starting pitching depth options, alongside Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas. Bradley could still blossom into a frontline major-league arm, but he'll need to refine his secondary pitches to reach that potential. Bullpen (8): Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, Justin Topa, Eric Orze, Connor Prielipp, Pierson Ohl, Marco Raya, John Klein Those who follow the Twins won't like hearing this, but the eight pitchers who form the club's 2026 Opening Day bullpen might already be in the organization. Sands, Funderburk, Topa, and Orze are all but guaranteed spots entering next season. This quartet will likely earn most of the early-season high-leverage situations, with Sands being the primary closer. They should be closers by committee, with all four earning save opportunities. The final four bullpen spots could be a smorgasbord of young, inexperienced arms. Derek Falvey named Prielipp and Raya as candidates to enter 2026 in the club's bullpen. Ohl and his near-elite changeup impressed in short relief opportunities last season, giving him an inside track to an Opening Day relief role. The one surprise in this collective is Klein earning the final spot over Travis Adams, but given Adams's significant struggles in the majors last season and Klein's superior stuff, Klein should have the inside track. View the full article

There are a couple of certainties when it comes to how the San Diego Padres might set out toward building their 2026 roster this winter. The first is a focus on pitching. This is a team losing Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. On the same note, Yu Darvish will miss all of next year. The rotation is in a bad way. Even if they're able to backfill some spots from the bullpen, they would then need to shore up the depth in relief. Regardless of how any actual addition transpires, the most notable ones will likely be on the mound. The second is that the team is likely going to fill their bench spots in a similar fashion to last year. The Padres went with the volume approach on fringe guys in 2025. Jason Heyward, Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, and Gavin Sheets (among others) were all brought in on minor-league deals. Only Iglesias and Sheets stuck around throughout the season, and only Sheets has a longer-term outlook with the organization. Having already signed Pablo Reyes to a minor-league pact, we should expect to see plenty more of that type of contract making their way to Peoria, Arizona next spring for a shot at the roster. But given how things transpired for the Padres in 2025, it's clear they can't rely solely on minor-league deals to fill out depth spots. When you lose games to injury — as the Padres did with Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Ramón Laureano all missing notable time — and need to ensure breaks for the likes of Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis Jr. in the field, the likes of a Heyward or an Iglesias scattered throughout the bench are simply not enough to get the job done. Which is why Willi Castro represents the ideal candidate for the San Diego Padres to pursue this winter. A former Detroit Tiger, Minnesota Twin, and Chicago Cub, Castro hits free agency coming off a tough stretch following a deadline deal that landed him on the North Side of Chicago. Castro hit just .170 and reached base at a paltry .245 clip following the trade, relying primarily on his approach (16.0 percent walk rate in September) to drum up any semblance of value at the plate. He was worth -0.5 bWAR in 110 plate appearances with the Cubs. It's hard to put much stock in a player's post-deadline performance when said player changes his home stadium. Which is why Castro's career line — .244/.313/.384 with a wRC+ of 95 — represents something much more important. Even more notable is the fact that in his last two full seasons in Minnesota, he was an above-average hitter (107 wRC+) who added value on the bases (47 steals between 2023 & 2024). So, while his power has been uneven in his career, there's a steadiness to his bat and baserunning that the Padres lacked entirely in their reserves in 2025. Of course, the most important component that Castro brings is in his versatility. While not particularly elite at any position, he continues to log time all over the field in 2025. For Minnesota and Chicago last season, he totaled 264.2 innings at second base, 129 innings at third base, 26 innings at shortstop, 261.2 innings in left field, 35 innings in center field, and 256 innings in right field. His history prior to '25 includes a much longer run at short and in center, too. That level of versatility verges on being considered an everyday player rather than a true bench type. As such, Castro stands to receive a decent contract this winter, even if on a shorter term than some of his peers. At present, the Padres are without any sort of positional depth both on their roster and in the upper levels of the minors. Their 40-man roster includes Mason McCoy and Will Wagner on the infield, and Bryce Johnson and Tiros Ornelas in the outfield. None of those players offers the level of coverage that Castro can provide from a positional standpoint. McCoy and Wagner are each limited to the dirt while Johnson and Ornelas are stuck on the grass, all with shortcomings on the offensive side. Castro not only offers that coverage in a way that is extremely efficient for this roster but possesses a higher (read: any) upside at the plate. MLB Trade Rumors projects a two-year, $15 million deal for Castro. Even operating on a tight budget, that's not only something the Padres can afford, but something they should be entirely willing to pursue. The benefit of a player like Castro is that you can roster him and then scatter those six-figure minor-league pacts throughout the roster in a way that allows you to follow a singular skill set without trying to catch some kind of magic in the cheapest way possible. On that term and at that price point, Willi Castro isn't only a desirable entity for this roster, but an essential one. View the full article