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Too often, the evaluation of a baseball prospect fluctuates dramatically based on their most recent season. Fish On First is occasionally guilty of this, with Miami Marlins first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos being a prime example. At this time a year ago, De Los Santos ranked third on the FOF Top 30 as Minor League Baseball's reigning home run king. Currently, fresh off a disappointing season at Triple-A, he is ranked 23rd. That's in large part because his surface-level production cratered, from 40 homers and a 127 wRC+ in 2024 to 12 homers and an 84 wRC+ in 2025. But under the hood, nothing about De Los Santos' player profile fundamentally changed. He possesses plus-plus power—in both seasons, his 90th-percentile exit velocity was 108 mph (for reference, Agustín Ramírez is at 109 mph). His chase rate against Triple-A pitching actually improved from 45.0% to 35.0%, though that is still a concerningly high figure. It's been obvious throughout this period that first base will be his long-term defensive home. Despite shattering his previous career-high with 16 stolen bases in 2025, he remains a below-average runner by MLB standards. De Los Santos did not do enough to earn a call-up from the Marlins last season. He also did not disqualify himself as a potential reinforcement further down the road. He's only 22 years old! Between a quad injury and travel issues, De Los Santos had fewer MiLB reps than hoped (106 games in AAA). He is compensating for that now in the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), where he's been starring for Gigantes del Cibao. De Los Santos enters Monday ranked fourth among all qualified LIDOM hitters in both batting average (.351) and OPS (.892). He is in the midst of a 16-game on-base streak. Every single pitcher he's faced is older than him and more than half of his plate appearances have come against guys who have MLB experience. It has been a mixed bag for De Los Santos from a plate discipline standpoint. He has drawn only three walks through a full month of action and he occasionally gives away strikes at times by blindly guessing in favorable counts and swinging over the top of breaking balls. On the other hand, it's encouraging to see him dial back his aggressiveness, offering at 30% of first pitches (roughly MLB average). With few exceptions, the arms who have elite stuff and command are resting at this time of year. There's only so much that De Los Santos can "prove" about himself against this quality of competition. The correlation between LIDOM run production and big league readiness is practically non-existent, as detailed in the table below. OPS Rank 2020-21 LIDOM Season 2021-22 LIDOM Season 2022-23 LIDOM Season 2023-24 LIDOM Season 2024-25 LIDOM Season 1 Ronald Guzmán Junior Lake Henry Urrutia Ronny Simón J.C. Escarra 2 Joe Dunand Leody Taveras Ronny Mauricio Franmil Reyes Aderlin Rodríguez 3 Yamaico Navarro Hanser Alberto Aneury Tavárez Mel Rojas Jr. Jerar Encarnación 4 Junior Lake Sócrates Brito Ramón Hernández Héctor Rodríguez Sergio Alcántara 5 Jeremy Peña Zoilo Almonte Rainer Nuñez Starlin Castro Erick Mejía Total MLB fWAR in 2021 Total MLB fWAR in 2022 Total MLB fWAR in 2023 Total MLB fWAR in 2024 Total MLB fWAR in 2025 -0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 The Marlins are exploring opportunities to acquire a veteran first baseman, but they don't feel obligated to do so if the value isn't reasonable. FOF's Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral report that they could patch things together with a combination of internal options such as Eric Wagaman, Connor Norby, Graham Pauley and Liam Hicks. Even if De Los Santos homered on a daily basis for the rest of the LIDOM season, the Marlins would still plan on sending him back down to Jacksonville to validate that he has turned a corner. I have been pounding the drum as much as anybody for the Marlins to invest in their roster and first base was a glaring weakness for the Fish last year. That being said, they should be setting the bar very high and/or prioritizing first basemen with the flexibility to play additional positions. De Los Santos is a fascinating depth piece for 2026 who shouldn't be ignored. If the Marlins have to block his path to the majors because they've added one of MLB's best bats via trade or free agency, that'd be wonderful, but don't spend money for the sake of spending money and bury him on the depth chart behind a low-probability bounce-back candidate. View the full article

The Twins certainly have enough pitchers on the 40-man to fill a bullpen (Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, David Festa, Taj Bradley, et al), but which of the young minor league starters, or those in the majors, look to be moving to the bullpen full-time in 2026 to shore up the lack of relievers they currently have? View the full article

When the Chicago Cubs acquired Michael Busch ahead of the 2024 season, it was clear where the upside existed. He was a bat-first prospect without a true defensive home and, as a result, without a pathway to playing time with his former team in Los Angeles. Typically with a prospect that fits that profile, you worry about the athleticism aspect and whether there's a glove to play at all, let alone where to play it. In Busch's case, though, he had the athleticism; the Dodgers had deployed him primarily at second and third base as an upper-level prospect in their minor-league ranks. The Cubs, however, made the almost-immediate decision to entrench him at first base, a position where the team lacked a long-term solution. The immediate returns were promising, too. Over the course of that first season, Busch demonstrated improvement on both sides of the ball. He finished above average by wRC+ in each individual month (save one), progressively cut down on his strikeout rate throughout the season, and ended the year with his highest isolated power figure in an individual month (.243). Defensively, he landed on the positive side of the Outs Above Average threshold, finishing with 2 OAA. Even with such steady improvement throughout his rookie campaign, the needed areas of improvement were clear. The ideal progression would've included a continued decrease in what landed as a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, more consistency on the power side (.192 ISO for the full year), and further (and sustainable) development on the defensive side. There were intricacies therein, but those represented the simple version of the pathway toward improvement for Busch ahead of '25. Busch's percentile distribution from this season alone is indicative of him meeting the moment: Above all, Busch was able to drive his power numbers way up via his quality of contact. The fact that he ended the year with a .261 ISO is indicative of a hard-hit rate that graduated from 39.9 percent in 2024 to 47.3 percent in 2025. That output came against fastballs and off-speed pitches, each of which represented his two highest swing rates among the three pitch groups (breaking balls being the other). They sat neck-and-neck, with fastballs accounting for a 48.2 percent swing rate and off-speed at a 48.3 percent mark. While there were still some swing-and-miss issues, the approach was illustrative of a good process on Busch's part. Good process begets hard contact which, in turn, begets impact output. Hence, the near-70-point ISO jump year over year. Busch didn't demonstrate quite the same growth defensively, however, as his OAA dropped to -2. Of course, first base is a difficult position to judge on metrics alone. It is worth noting, though, that his work to his right dropped from 1 OAA in '24 to -4 OAA in '25. It's a strange development considering the defensive wizardry occurring to his right in the form of Nico Hoerner. Nevertheless, the metrics are indicative of a step back with the glove. Which, at least, offers continued clarity in what shape Busch's next phase of development could take. There's a need for continued improvement in the contact game. The quality of contact and chase rates are each, in their own way, indicative of a player with a keen awareness of the zone. Approach isn't the concern. Instead, Busch needs to demonstrate continued improvement in the swing-and-miss element of his game, particularly on off-speed pitches. Given the high volume of swings against that pitch type, the fact that Busch is whiffing at off-speed 37.9 percent of the time (easily his highest against any of the three primary pitch groups) represents a clear developmental target. The outcomes with contact are positive. He simply needs to make more of it. That lands in conjunction with additional consistency on the defensive end. Again, it's hard to judge first base on the merits of analytics alone. But given Busch's decline that unfolded specifically in moving to his right, there's some work to be done. Doing so as a right-handed fielder at this particular position isn't easy (and that fact is likely some of what pinned down his OAA last year), but when you're working with a second baseman who thrives to his left (4 OAA for Hoerner in that direction), the statistical outcomes should look at least a little bit better in a larger, multi-year sample. It almost feels somewhat "nit-picky" given the massive strides that Michael Busch made between 2024 and 2025 to suggest he needs to find another gear. He finished this past year as an upper-tier power bat with a refined approach. Now in possession of a clear skill set and a defensive home, it's a matter of more specific improvement. Development isn't linear, but the fine-tuning stage should yield only a better player, not one in need of a total profile overhaul. View the full article

Compared to hitters, pitchers generally have more to prove at the big league level before being considered for contract extensions. In fact, there's never been a pre-debut deal for an arm. But Thomas White isn’t just another arm. Will the Marlins set a new precedent and get their star-studded lefty on paper at the tender age of 21? Here are some reasons why they should be attempting to sign him ASAP. White was drafted by the Marlins in 2023 in the competitive balance round already ahead of the curve. Regarded as the 24th-ranked prospect in that year’s MLB Draft, he came supplied with a plus fastball in the mid 90s, a curveball with spin rates in the 2700 rpm range and the blueprint for a late-fading changeup. He also enticed the Marlins with his intangibles, including great grades, a commitment to a top-tier collegiate program at Vanderbilt, and supreme maturity. What prevented White from being selected closer to the head of his class was uncertainty surrounding his future ability to fully iron out nascent control and repeatability while growing into a long 6’5” frame. 6he284.mp4 During his first full pro season, White had a 120/38 K/BB ratio in 96 frames across both single-A levels. The 19-year-old got called strikes at a 16% clip, attributing to a 30 CSW%, though he only threw first-pitch strikes at a 53% rate. This past season, the already-impressive prospect became a potential superstar. White came in to minor league spring training 30 pounds heavier than he was at the time of his draft selection. He showed what he could do with the extra muscle mass in one of his first side sessions. White was touching 97 while throwing at 80% effort when one of his coaches uttered, “Let it go.” White lit up the radar at over 100 mph. He morphed his breaking ball into a wipeout slider to generate more whiffs. Finally, his changeup also became firmer. This combination of higher velo and better stuff all while holding onto solid control made White even more unhittable. He had an amazing 2025 season, earning Double-A Pensacola MVP honors and ending at Triple-A contributing to the Jumbo Shrimp’s playoff run. With size, stuff, control, and maturity beyond his years, White is the prize of a rebuilt Marlins farm system and one of the best prospects Minor League Baseball has to offer. He's on the precipice of a potential major league debut this coming season. If White comes to the majors and dominates, he will quickly exceed his small-market team’s price range. Offering him an extension now may be Miami's only chance to push back his free agency. Signing White would reinforce the Marlins’ commitment to breeding in-house talent, rewarding success, and keeping young players in Miami. It would stifle the stigma that the club mortgages assets once they reach a certain service-time threshold. An extension would give Miami a rotational anchor from the left side, which they lacked throughout the last two losing seasons. Negotiating with Scott Boras is always a chore—he is notorious for getting his clients top dollar as dictated by the open market. In this case, perhaps he would be intrigued by the opportunity to venture into uncharted territory and secure generational wealth for White when he's only a few months above the legal drinking age. A good starting point for a potential White deal would be Hunter Greene. Shortly after embarking on his second season at the MLB level in 2023, he inked a six-year deal (including a club option) worth $53 million guaranteed and $95 million if all performance incentives are met. A key consideration for the Marlins would be securing a second club option, stretching their control of White through 2033. It's been a busy year at the bargaining table for the Marlins, discussing extensions with Kyle Stowers and most recently Eury Pérez, but to no avail. Although those ascending stars are important future building blocks themselves, they need to prioritize White. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals need help in the outfield if they want to return to the postseason in 2026. According to Fangraphs, the Royals outfield ranked last in wRC+ (73) and fWAR (-1.1). The trade deadline acquisition of Mike Yastrzemski helped boost them in the last two months of play, as the former San Francisco Giant helped them rank eighth in fWAR (8.7) and 11th in wRC+ (107). However, Yastrzemski is a free agent, and it seems likely that many teams will compete to sign him this offseason, which could boost his price for 2026 and beyond. The Royals desperately need someone who can provide pop in the lineup, as well as hold his own defensively at either corner outfield position. According to Roster Resource, John Rave and Jac Caglianone are projected to be the 2026 Opening Day left and right fielders, respectively. While both could see some improvement in 2026 after inconsistent 2025 rookie campaigns, it will be difficult for Kansas City to return to the postseason if those two are regular outfielders. An option for the Royals that wouldn't require a trade is Adolis Garcia, formerly of the Texas Rangers. In a cost-cutting move, Texas non-tendered the former ALCS MVP and two-time All-Star at the non-tender deadline. Garcia is far from a perfect option for the Royals in 2026. After an All-Star campaign in 2023 in which he hit 39 home runs, posted a 128 wRC+, and accumulated a 4.9 fWAR, the 32-year-old outfielder has accumulated a 0.6 fWAR over the past two seasons combined. He also saw his home run total drop from 25 in 2024 to 19 in 2025 and his wRC+ go from 94 in 2024 to 83 in 2025. Thus, it makes sense that the Rangers would non-tender him, especially with him entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and looking to command a figure in the $12.5 million range, according to Spotrac. Acquiring Garcia wouldn't be a cheap option for this Royals front office. In addition, there's no guarantee he would be a long-term one, as he could leave in free agency after 2026 if Kansas City doesn't offer him a long-term deal. However, for a team starving for pop and offense from the outfield, the Cuban-born outfielder and former Cardinals prospect checks a lot of boxes for the Royals next season. Garcia Still Presents A Solid Batted-Ball Profile It was definitely a down season for Garcia across the board in most of his surface-level numbers, which could make Royals fans hesitant about acquiring him. In 547 plate appearances, he slashed .227/.271/.394 with a .665 OPS. In addition to only hitting 19 home runs (six fewer than his total in 2024), he also posted a .286 wOBA and .168 ISO. All those marks were career-worst numbers for Garcia in a full season (he only played in 24 games combined in 2019 and 2020 with the Cardinals and Rangers, respectively). However, his Statcast metrics paint a slightly different story. While the results weren't there, Garcia still hit the ball hard in 2025, posting positive metrics in exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rate categories, according to TJ Stats. Garcia ranked in the 90th percentile in average EV, 75th percentile in barrel% and Hard-Hit%, 74th percentile in Max EV, and 63rd percentile in 90th EV. Those are batted-ball metrics that are sustainable, even in a more cavernous home ballpark like Kauffman Stadium. In fact, it seemed like that dropoff for Garcia wouldn't be too bad in the move to Kansas City, as illustrated in his 2025 spray chart, adjusted to Kauffman Stadium dimensions. Now, there are some concerning trends in his Statcast summary profile, especially regarding plate discipline. His O-Swing% (chase) ranked in the 10th percentile, his Z-Contact% ranked in the 9th percentile, his walk rate ranked in the 11th percentile, his whiff rate ranked in the 15th percentile, and his strikeout rate ranked in the 28th percentile. Thus, he sported a free-swinging approach, which contributed to overall struggles in his last season in Texas. It is interesting, though, to see how those plate discipline percentiles fared in 2024, which was a slightly better season for Garcia (25 home runs; 94 wRC+). Let's take a look below, via TJ Stats. The plate discipline metrics were actually slightly worse overall, with whiff and Z-Contact rates even lower than his 2025 marks. Conversely, his exit velocity and batted-ball percentile rankings were better, which explains why he saw more power production in 2024 despite hitting for a lower batting average (.224). Thus, Garcia is who he is as a hitter, which is a power hitter with swing-and-miss issues. Now, as a centerpiece of a team's offense, which he was seen to be in Texas? That's obviously not going to work. However, as a complementary middle-of-the-order bat? Garcia's offensive profile may be more tolerable for GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro. How Does Garcia Compare to Other Royals Outfielders Last Season? When evaluating Garcia compared to other Royals outfielders from last season, it seemed logical to focus on four primary metrics: average EV, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA. Those are metrics that can indicate a hitter's power skills, as well as give a better idea of their outlook for the upcoming season offensively. Here's a table with those metrics, organized by xwOBA, including all Royals corner outfielders with at least 50 plate appearances, as well as Garcia. For Yastrzemski, Randal Grichuk, and Adam Frazier, I included their full-season numbers, not just their Royals-specific metrics. When looking at xwOBA, Grichuk and Yastrzemski led the Royals' corner outfielders in that category, both with .327 marks. Caglianone finished third with a .318 mark. In fourth? That would be Garcia with a .304 mark, just three points ahead of Rave. In other categories on the table, Garcia was more impressive. He was second in average EV and hard-hit rate and third in barrel rate. Thus, from a power perspective, the former Rangers outfielder offers more insurance, especially since he had four-straight seasons of 25+ home runs from 2021 to 2024. Another interesting aspect of Garcia's profile is that he was solid defensively in 2025, especially compared to other Royals corner outfielders. As seen in the table below, he outperformed many Royals outfielders defensively last season, especially in the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) category. Garcia's 16 DRS was 11 runs better than Yasstrzemski, the Royals' second-best defensive outfielder in that category a season ago. The former Ranger lagged behind Rave in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV), as Rave led the Royals with three in each category. That said, he still finished ahead of all other Royals in OAA and FRV beyond Rave. Thus, the Royals would not just be getting a player with some power upside, but also one who would be a clear defensive upgrade over other options the Royals trotted out in the corner outfield spots a season ago. What's the Challenge With Signing Garcia? The issue with acquiring Garcia is that he won't come to Kansas City easily or cheaply. After the move, many other team sites theorized on social media about how Garcia would fit their rosters for the upcoming season. Thus, like Yastrzemski, the Royals may need to overpay to get a player of Garcia's caliber for 2026. However, at 32 years old, is Garcia worth such a firm financial commitment, even if he wouldn't cost the Royals any prospect capital? That is a tricky question to answer for now. It does seem like the Royals value their prospects more than before, especially as they're rebuilding the Minor League talent pool under scouting director Brian Bridges, who took over after the 2023 MLB Draft. And yet, it seems like Picollo isn't averse to trading from an area of strength, as illustrated by the recent Cole Ragans rumors that emerged over the weekend. Furthermore, the Royals do not want to sign a free agent, only to see them fall flat in their move to Kansas City. That was the case with Hunter Renfroe, who was seen as an "affordable" upgrade that didn't cost them any prospect capital, but ended up posting a -0.8 fWAR in 155 games with the Royals. The Royals can't "swing-and-miss" with their outfield upgrade like Renfroe or even Jonathan India last season, who failed to gain traction as a utility player in Kansas City. For the Royals to get back to the playoffs, they need to find someone who will give the production they desperately need in the outfield while not being a complete drain defensively, especially with Caglianone still working on things in the outfield (as Cags would most likely be the third outfielder). Is Garcia the answer? He checks a lot of boxes. That said, he'll be 33 next year, doesn't have much team control, and could cost a lot to acquire. Are those risks Picollo is willing to take? I guess Royals fans will have to wait and see. View the full article

A spring training oblique strain and a handful of underwhelming starts limited Tobias Myers's opportunities in the Brewers' starting rotation in 2025. In those starts, Myers wasn't mixing speeds much, eschewing what had been an effective changeup the year before. Rediscovering a proper offspeed offering became one of his focuses with Triple-A Nashville, and he ultimately landed on a split-change. It was a small tweak, but its impact could ripple into next season. The splitter significantly altered Myers's identity as a pitcher, and it could be his ticket to more innings in 2026. After settling on that new pitch, Myers said he expected to throw it plenty. It immediately became a weapon against hitters from either side of the plate, holding opponents to a .131 wOBA while inducing whiffs on 39.2% of swings. Myers not only made it his preferred weapon against left-handed hitters, but even used it at roughly the same rate as his cutter and slider against righties. Those shifts in usage prompted different sequencing. Myers hit his stride as a rookie once he and the Brewers established his fastball-cutter-slider triad, particularly against right-handed batters. That meant tunneling pitches to start right down the middle, with the heater staying true over the plate and the secondaries breaking low and to the glove side. Myers needed more tricks in his bag against lefties, including more elevated fastballs and cutters, but the back-foot slider was still a significant part of his approach down the stretch. By August, Myers's focus shifted to setting up a splitter that emphasized depth, tailing in the opposite direction of his slider and cutter. That meant working more on the north-south game, shifting his fastball usage further up and in to righties. Going to a mostly fastball-splitter pairing against lefties (nearly 80% of his pitches in such matchups after he debuted the latter on July 23) led Myers to zero in on the bottom of the zone with both offerings. Those new plans of attack made him a more well-rounded pitcher. In 2024, righties managed just a .275 wOBA against Myers, but lefties posted a more capable .320 mark. After he debuted the splitter in the big leagues on Jul. 23, 2025, lefties floundered to a .229 wOBA, compared to .278 for righties. His strikeout rate remained below-average at 18.5%, but he generated whiffs on 25.4% of swings, a higher rate than in his successful rookie campaign. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, as righties did more damage against Myers's fastball in that time, particularly in the inner third of the zone. That may necessitate returning to his former sequences in some of those matchups, even if it means limiting his usage of a highly successful splitter. Even if his 2025 season did not transpire as he may have preferred, Myers took advantage of the opportunity it afforded him to mature as a pitcher. He arguably profiles better as a starter now than he did a year ago, though it may be tough for him to crack a deep Milwaukee rotation—particularly if the club retains Freddy Peralta. In any case, Myers's contributions next season might be closer to his rookie year than his sophomore campaign. The split-change is a difference-maker for the late-blooming righty. View the full article

The Twins will be spending some significant money this winter to improve their offense—even if that spending comes in the form of hours tallied by front-office personnel or technological upgrades, rather than new hitters on high-paying free-agent contracts. That was, perhaps, the most intriguing takeaway from the press conference at which the team introduced new hitting coach Keith Beauregard (and bench coach Mark Hallberg) last month. "We’re gonna build a markerless system that shows what a guy’s swing is, and when it’s good what it looks like and when it’s off, ‘Here’s what we’re seeing,'" Beauregard said via Zoom on November 17. "And it should get us to solutions as quickly as possible, and make meaningful tweaks as quickly as possible, as well." Nestled in that enthusiastic statement of intent was a somewhat startling admission: the Twins don't already have such a system in place. Sources within front offices elsewhere in the league estimate that between 15 and 25 of the other 29 teams do already have proprietary means by which they provide biomechanical feedback to players on their swings within games—that is, without needing to attach markers and study the player's movements in a laboratory setting. This is one of the little-discussed shortfalls that has crept up on the team over the last few years. Throughout Derek Falvey's tenure as the head of baseball operations, good analysts, developers, scouts, executives, coaches and instructors have flowed through Minnesota. They've generally been well-regarded by other teams for their acquisition and development of good staffers. That's why they've lost a lot of them to other teams over the last several seasons. When it comes to technology (and the implementation thereof in player development and coaching), however, they haven't invested enough to stay ahead of the curve. In fact, they're a bit behind it. Diminished spending throughout the organization has had effects reaching beyond the 40-man roster and the nominal payroll. Most of the team's pro scouts were let go earlier this year, and sources familiar with the internal workings of the team say a budget crunch has encroached upon the efforts of the front office since 2023. That's the bad news. The good news is that forward strides like the one Beauregard described cost very little. It won't eat up much of the budget for research, development and implementation to add a markerless motion-capture system to their arsenal of tools. The data needed to do that kind of work is already abundantly available to the Twins, via Statcast. Visualizations that animate and illustrate a hitter's swing in three dimensions already exist, and are available to the public via Baseball Savant. Here's the one for Trevor Larnach, for 2025. Larn Dog.mp4 However, these animations are composites. They show the average of all the swings a hitter took during the year in question. The application Beauregard described, which the Twins will have at their disposal in 2026, is more nuanced. It will allow them to study individual swings on demand (another capability they technically already had, but which they didn't use extensively in 2025, according to a source), and even more importantly, it will allow them to bin and tailor swings to study them in clusters. What does a hitter's swing look like on fastballs down in the zone? What about when the pitch is belt-high and on the inner edge? How are they adjusting to breaking balls, in terms of both their bat path and the transfer of weight in their lower half? These are questions all hitting coaches would agree are important, but there are different ways to attempt to answer them. With improved technological tools at their disposal, Beauregard and assistant hitting coaches Rayden Sierra and Trevor Amicone will try to give their charges more objective, concrete answers in 2026. For multiple reasons, communication about swings and hitting trouble has been a major weakness for the team over the last two years. David Popkins was fired after 2024 because the front office believed he was unable to adequately convey the team's philosophy to the players under his tutelage. He proved that theory wrong in 2025, as he helmed one of baseball's best offenses and led the Blue Jays to within inches of a World Series title. Although signed to a multi-year deal to replace Popkins, Matt Borgschulte was fired after just one season in his stead. The team's persistent inability to translate apparent talent into consistent production prompted that move. Larnach is a perfect example. The fault might well lie in him, rather than his instructors, but neither Popkins nor Borgschulte succeeded in getting the young slugger to better understand his own swing. He made major changes from 2024 to 2025, but wasn't even aware of them—or able to articulate the reasons for them. "There's been no intentional changes to the swing this year," Larnach said in August. "Everything I'm trying to do is the same as last year, and if anything's different, it's just my adjustment to the pitch and to what I'm seeing." That might have been true, as far as it went, but it betrayed an insufficient self-knowledge, which can be blamed partially on a lack of irrefutable feedback. Beauregard's markerless capture system will force Larnach to reckon more with the realities of his swing, which might be part of why the team felt optimistic enough to retain him at the non-tender deadline in mid-November. Slushy swing talk was a virus that spread throughout Minnesota's clubhouse in 2025. Carlos Correa (who came to the team from the Astros, and thus has had his swing captured and dissected in quantitative fashion for a decade), Ryan Jeffers, and late-season reinforcements Ryan Fitzgerald and James Outman could be counted on to accurately describe their own swings, but Larnach, Matt Wallner and others frequently demonstrated a mistaken or incomplete comprehension of themselves in motion. That can reflect a player's attitude or inclination, as much as a team's tendency, but the Twins' lack of cutting-edge tools certainly made it more possible to come to work every day and be underprepared for the hard work of hitting big-league pitching. In 2026, Larnach, Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall will have the benefit of that hard data, be it in numerical or visual form. Beauregard is ready to find the best way to communicate with each individual, but one way or another, the goal is to get them the actionable information they weren't receiving (at least in actionable form) until now. "I think it goes back to meeting guys where they’re at, and figuring out how to speak their language," Beauregard said. "When you learn to speak their language, you build (basically) a base model of what type of swing works for them. And with some of these biomechanical markers, and some of the things you just alluded to, it allows us to get to resolutions a little bit quicker, so when they’re outside of those markers, we can catch flags." The 2026 Twins will have to do more with less, at the plate. Hiring Beauregard was part of the plan to do so, but supporting him with better technology and advanced tools the team should have had already will be important, too. View the full article

Just before Thanksgiving, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that some members of the Boston Red Sox front office believe veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is none too dissimilar from Minnesota Twins All-Star Joe Ryan. This, of course, created another avenue for Red Sox fans to argue about what was a very polarizing trade. Gray, who turned 36 on Nov. 7, is two seasons removed from finishing second in American League Cy Young voting, but most recently put up a 4.28 ERA in 2025. With the dialogue surrounding the team's need to acquire a "legitimate No. 2 starter," fans seem to feel underwhelmed by Gray. Let's address the belief brought to light by Bradford: the Red Sox front office believe Gray and Ryan are very similar pitchers. At the outset, it seems foolish. After all, this is the same Ryan that Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow reportedly offered an arm and a leg -- short of outfielders Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu -- for at this past summer's trade deadline. Even if St. Louis didn't require a package headlined by shortstop Franklin Arias (No. 3 on Talk Sox) or outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2), wouldn't the acquisition cost of Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke signify the talent gap between the two? Not necessarily. Being seven years older and owed a lot more financially, that alone lowers the cost for Gray. Even if they're the exact same pitcher, there are a ton of variables at large when a trade comes to fruition. But let's look at these two side-by-side and re-assess how Boston did in the Sonny Gray trade. Whiffs and Chase Last season was something of an outlier for Ryan in the chase department. Historically, he's never been exceptional at missing bats, constantly hovering around the high-50s in his percentile, but inducing solid amounts of chase helped him rack up the punchouts. In 2025, his chase rate fell to the 14th percentile. As a result, despite holding opponents to a .203 average on his sweeper, he only had a put-away rate of 18.8% on the pitch. He maintained a 34% whiff rate on it, but finishing hitters off became a problem. As for Gray, he stayed well above average at both. In 2025, he had a chase rate of 31.2%, which put him in the 81st percentile. His whiff rate ranked in the 68th percentile. His sweeper was even better than Ryan's, holding opponents to a .151 average while generating 42.4% whiff and 28.2% put-away rates. This isn't a long-lasting part of Gray's pitching track record, but it explains why he's able to maintain elite strikeout stuff despite an unspectacular fastball. Fastball If anyone is arguing Gray's heater can hold a candle to Ryan's, they're lying. The Twins right-hander had a 93rd-percentile fastball in 2025 in terms of run value, holding opponents to a .204 batting average with a 26.9% whiff rate on his four-seam. In fact, only Nick Pivetta registered more strikeouts on four-seam fastballs than Ryan in 2025, who had 108 and tied with San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray. Gray's four-seam got killed in 2025, as opponents slugged .594 against it. It's not an outlier season either, as opponents slugged .567 against it in 2024. It's simply not an effective offering anymore for the 36-year-old veteran, who reduced his usage rate to 21.7% in 2025. He's much more spin-dominant than he once was, and that's more than acceptable with an increased use of his sinker and cutter to generate ground balls and weak contact. But, in a vacuum, Ryan made more sense given the trends established by Red Sox brass last season. Overall, here's how their 2025 seasons looked: Gray: 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, 21.6% K-BB, 3.6 fWAR, 180.2 IP, 66th percentile pitching run value Ryan: 3.42 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB, 3.4 fWAR, 171.0 IP, 71st percentile pitching run value ERA aside, hard to see much difference between the two arms, no? Thus begs the question: If you're willing to trade Duran and/or Abreu for Ryan, why are you upset about trading Fitts and Clarke for Gray? Which brings me to my next point: Acquisition Cost Part of why the Gray trade made so much sense this early in the offseason is the options it continues to give the Red Sox on the trade market. While fans think very highly of the team's farm system, that doesn't mean other organizations necessarily agree. Even if, say, the New York Yankees viewed the Red Sox as having the No. 2 farm system in the league, that doesn't mean the Twins do. It's magnified to the grandest degree when we're talking about MLB decision-makers, but it's none too dissimilar to how we as consumers talk about farm systems on social media. That said, age and contracts play a major role in determining acquisition cost. Ryan is turning 30 in 2026; Gray is 36. Therefore, Ryan is more expensive. The Red Sox likely have the ammunition for one big trade this offseason; why does that trade have to happen before any other moves are made? The team acquired Gray for Fitts and Clarke, meaning the Red Sox still have their biggest chips -- Duran and Abreu -- to address a glaring need closer to January or even February of 2026. That could be circling back to Ryan, but it also could be to add impact to the heart of the order. Plain and simple, these two arms for one year are not very far apart in terms of overall production. Gray's a bit more battle-tested, while Ryan has more long-term projectability. But when you've got to get creative to bolster a roster that has so much of its team under control already, unloading all of your assets before Thanksgiving is poor management. As is sitting on your hands waiting for Tarik Skubal or Hunter Greene to become available, similar to what Breslow did at this past deadline with Ryan. It seems he's learned his lesson. View the full article

Last week, my boss here at DiamondCentric asked me to prepare “a truly killer piece” for the Monday after American Thanksgiving. Well, here goes. You’ve seen a lot of articles on our website about Bo Bichette lately. The general consensus? The Blue Jays need to do whatever it takes to re-sign him. Sure, we’ve considered backup plans, but they’re backup plans for a reason. Bringing Bo back is the goal. But maybe it shouldn’t be. I started writing this article just to see if I could. I wasn’t always planning to publish it. After all, I’ve been calling on the Jays to re-sign Bichette as much as anyone. I didn’t want to write this title if it was only going to be clickbait. I needed to find an argument I believed in. Before long, I’d found several. Now, I should mention that I started writing this article early last week, before the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. My primary argument, at the time, was that signing a pitcher like Cease should be Toronto's number one priority. I'm feeling pretty good about that argument right now. Here's what I wrote: ***** Toronto’s top priority this winter absolutely needs to be pitching. The 2025 Blue Jays' offense was one of the best in the league, even subtracting Bichette’s performance. The pitching staff, on the other hand, was closer to average (if not slightly below) with a 4.19 ERA (19th) and 11.7 FanGraphs WAR (21st). To be fair, those stats are full of noise. More than a quarter of last year’s innings went to pitchers no longer in the organization, while arms like Trey Yesavage and Louis Varland should play much bigger roles in 2026. So, perhaps a better way to explain why the Blue Jays need pitching is to lay out their projected lineup and pitching staff for next season. Let’s start with the position players: Position Projected Starter C Alejandro Kirk 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2B Ernie Clement SS Andrés Giménez 3B Addison Barger RF Anthony Santander CF Daulton Varsho LF Nathan Lukes/Davis Schneider DH George Springer That’s a complete lineup. Is it a great lineup? No. Bichette’s absence leaps off the page. But there is at least an average major leaguer at every position. I can’t say the same for the starting rotation: Position Projected Pitcher SP1 Kevin Gausman SP2 Shane Bieber SP3 Trey Yesavage SP4 José Berríos SP5 Eric Lauer Kevin Gausman is a great pitcher, but for a team with World Series aspirations, he’s ideally a number two starter, not an ace. He’ll also be 35 next year. Shane Bieber has that ace upside, but he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2022, and the Bieber we saw last year looked more like a mid-rotation arm. Trey Yesavage remains something of a question mark. Could he blossom into Toronto’s ace? If last October was any indication, the answer is an emphatic yes. But that’s his ceiling, not his 50th percentile projection. As is the case with Bieber, a mid-rotation arm is the expectation here, and anything more is gravy. As for José Berríos, I think we’re looking at a back-end innings eater as the most likely outcome in 2026 – presuming his elbow is healthy enough for him to keep racking up innings. Once again, the upside for more is there, but the version of Berríos we saw last season isn’t someone you want starting a postseason game. Finally, we come to Eric Lauer, who simply cannot have a guaranteed role in Toronto’s rotation if this team is serious about returning to the World Series. It’s not that he wasn’t great last season, but he has not proven he can hold down a full-time starting job. On top of that, he’s more valuable as a swingman; the Jays should plan to use him as a multi-inning lefty in the bullpen, but he will inevitably move into the rotation at some point as injuries pop up. All that to say, the Blue Jays would benefit tremendously from adding a true ace to put at the top of their rotation, sliding everyone else down a spot. No single addition at any position would improve this team more than adding, say, Dylan Cease (Editor's Note: ding ding ding!), Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, or Ranger Suárez (DiamondCentric’s top four free agent starters). If the Blue Jays want to get back to the playoffs and challenge for another title, bringing in a new number one starter should be their number one priority. ***** Well, mission accomplished! So what now? The Blue Jays should have plenty of Mr. Rogers’ money to spend after their hugely successful run to the World Series. They can still afford to re-sign Bichette after landing Cease. But I haven’t talked about the bullpen yet. This ‘pen needs help: Position Projected Pitcher CL Jeff Hoffman RP Louis Varland RP Yimi García RP Brendon Little RP Braydon Fisher RP Yariel Rodríguez RP Mason Fluharty RP Tommy Nance After Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland, I’m varying degrees of nervous about every player in that table. And considering the only two names I feel good about are Hoffman, who gave up more homers than any other AL reliever last year, and Varland, who only has one season of experience as a full-time reliever, this is clearly a high-volatility group. It’s not that there’s nothing to like about this bullpen. Every one of those pitchers flashed great stuff at some point in 2025. The problem is that relievers are wildly unpredictable, and this group especially so. Thankfully, the Jays have options. Or, I should say, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, and Mason Fluharty have options, as does Varland. In addition, Tommy Nance is a DFA candidate. So, GM Ross Atkins has the flexibility to add several arms to this bullpen. He could (and should) go after one of the big-name free agent closers: Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, or Robert Suarez. He could (and should) also pursue one or two more proven veterans, such as Seranthony Domínguez, Emilio Pagán, or Tyler Rogers. Bo Bichette is a more valuable player than anyone Atkins could add to the bullpen. I’d rank him above anyone they could have signed for the rotation too, be it Cease, Valdez, Imai, or Suárez. That’s why he’s the No. 2 free agent on DiamondCentric’s top 50. Yet, a starter like Cease knocking Lauer out of the rotation or, say, a closer like Díaz knocking Nance out of the bullpen would improve this team more than Bichette taking playing time away from the likes of Clement/Barger/Schneider/Lukes. It’s not just a question of who the Jays are adding; who they’re replacing matters just as much. Of course, Toronto’s front office should have the resources to prioritize improving the rotation, the bullpen, and the lineup equally. Even so, I could argue that Bichette shouldn’t be Toronto’s top target. Why? Because he’s only No. 2 on DiamondCentric’s top 50 free agents list, and the Blue Jays have the money, the clout, and the roster flexibility to set their eyes on No. 1. Kyle Tucker is the best free agent on the market. We’re projecting him to sign a 10-year, $360 million deal. That’s more than twice the guaranteed money we’re projecting for Bichette (seven years, $175 million). That massive contract projection is a reflection of Tucker’s MVP-caliber talent. As much as I love Bo, it’s hard to argue that Tucker isn’t the superior player. He won’t hit for quite as high an average, but his power, discipline, and speed are superior, as is his defense, albeit at a less valuable position. Tucker would also be a better fit for Toronto’s lineup. The Jays’ two best hitters, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, both hit right-handed. They have plenty of lefties, but no one who’s a sure thing to make a serious impact from the left-hand side. Turning to defense, adding Tucker would mean Barger and Schneider would see more of their reps in the infield, while Lukes would be relegated to a smaller role. But none of that is meaningfully different from what would be the case if the Jays signed Bichette – just replace the word “infield” with “outfield.” Ross Atkins finds himself in the best position he’s ever been in to convince ownership to spend big and convince superstar free agents to sign north of the border. He needs to capitalize. Re-signing Bo Bichette would be a great move. The Blue Jays would be far better with him than without him, and the fans would be thrilled to have him back. At the same time, re-signing Bichette isn’t the best move Atkins can make. There are other ways he can improve his team even more, and he needs to consider all of them. (Signing Cease was one such move.) So, I’m not saying no to Bo. But maybe re-signing him isn’t the absolute, ultimate, be-all end-all, must-do, no question top priority we’ve been treating it as. Maybe there’s another path. View the full article

On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 2-for-4 with a home run and he continues to lead his league with a .978 OPS. Jacob Berry went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base in his first Puerto Rican Winter League start. His Leones de Ponce teammate, Orlando Ortiz-Mayr, fared well in a no-decision (4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). Only 115 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 This teal Marlins Starter jacket is the best item of clothing I own. Totally unprompted, friends, family and even strangers compliment me whenever I wear it in public. Through the end of tonight, you have the opportunity to get it at Homage for just $125, which is $40 less than what I paid for mine. You're welcome! Also a reminder that you can save 10% on all Fish On First merch purchases at About The Fans by using coupon code FOF10 at checkout. 🔷 Baseball executives and media will converge on Orlando, Florida, for the Winter Meetings beginning this Sunday night. Our own Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral preview the event from the Marlins' perspective. 🔷 Even with a late start to his winter ball season, Deyvison De Los Santos has been one of LIDOM's most productive hitters. I wrote about how his encouraging performance adds a wrinkle to the club's ongoing search for a first baseman. 🔷 On this day four years ago, the Marlins held a joint press conference to celebrate Sandy Alcantara's contract extension (5-YR/$56M) and Avisaíl García's free agent signing (4-YR/$53M). Needless to say, they'd like a re-do on one of those moves. 🔷 On the Baseball Wives Club, Otto Lopez's wife, Marle Vásquez, discussed how the couple met and what it's like navigating the chaotic world of professional baseball while also raising an infant (their daughter Amelia is 17 months old). 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Ryan Helsley and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a two-year, $28 million deal. The price turned out to be a bit steeper than I projected entering this offseason, but I still think he would've been the ideal reliever addition for the Marlins when accounting for the short-term commitment and his immense potential upside. View the full article

While Red Sox nation was preparing for Thanksgiving, Craig Breslow continued to prepare for the 2026 season as he signed infielder Vinny Capra to a minor-league deal on Thursday. The signing was first reported by SoxProspects’ Brendan Campbell. Capra, who will turn 30 next July, spent the 2025 season with the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox. He would appear in 47 games for the two teams hitting a combined .125/.157/.177 with two doubles, a home run and sox RBIs. Defensively, Capra spent time at second base, shortstop and third base along with a few outfield appearances in Triple-A. While it hasn’t been announced yet, his minor league deal is likely to include a non-roster invitation to spring training. Should he make it through spring training, Capra will most likely report to Worcester where he will serve as infield depth thanks to his ability to play all over the diamond. View the full article

In case you somehow missed it, MLB is officially instituting the long-awaited Automated Ball Strike System, or ABS, in 2026. Fans have had the chance to see the technology at work for years in the minor leagues, but they’ve only seen it sparingly in big league games. It was used in select spring training games and the All-Star game, but there wasn’t enough data to really think about how it’d affect the catcher role. Because of the limited information, the consensus seems to be that the new system will disproportionately hurt catchers like Patrick Bailey, who have gotten a lot of value out of pitch framing, while allowing worse framers to make up for their mistakes with challenges. However, the truth is likely more complex. Davy Andrews, a FanGraphs writer and former Brewer Fanatic contributor, recently wrote a piece reflecting on the upcoming system, and a key takeaway was that people tend to forget that pitch framing is just as much about stealing strikes as it is about keeping strikes. He noted that the best pitch framers in the league earn strikes on ~90% of shadow zone pitches in the zone, while getting called strikes on just ~20% of pitches outside the zone. The challenge system should allow a catcher with a perfect eye to get 100% of fairly earned called strikes, which could be more valuable than the few stolen strikes taken away from batter challenges. This is especially apparent when noting that catchers tend to have much higher overturn rates than batters so far. So how does William Contreras fit into all of this? Well, he was one of the best at framing pitches in 2023, accumulating +9 Catcher Framing Runs (5th in MLB). Since then, he has gradually declined in his productivity, posting +3 framing runs in 2024 and just +1 this past year. He’s still a much better defender than he was with the Braves, but could this new system be what he needs to turn things around behind the dish? A peek at his Savant page shows that his weakest framing zone was towards the left-handed batter’s box. In this shadow zone, his strike percentage of 57.9% was considerably lower than the MLB average of 64.3% and he accumulated -3 framing runs in this zone. It’s difficult to say exactly why he struggled so much with pitches on his right-handed side, but reviewing a few clips of missed calls shows something is happening. Even when setting up his glove in the right location, he tends to instinctively pull his hand down and to his left before catching the pitch, framing it in the opposite direction and losing out on strikes. While not quite as egregious, he faces a similar issue when catching pitches on the upper rail. In each of these examples, Contreras’s reaction makes it seem like he’s still expecting a late strike call because of how confident he is that the pitch landed in the zone. Now, the strike zone on television can admittedly be misleading, but there is enough evidence to suggest that Contreras often has a hard time keeping his pitcher’s strikes in the zone where they belong. A lot of this regression is due to the noise in his setup before the pitch. If we go back and look at the pitches he received in the same zones in 2023, the overall motion is far smoother, which lends itself to stealing and confirming more strikes. However, while that is undoubtedly something for Contreras to work on in the offseason, he still clearly has a good understanding of the zone. With the robo-zone, he can compensate for framing mistakes by correcting history with a timely challenge or two without sacrificing much framing upside. To get a more definitive answer on whether this will help or hurt his defensive efforts, we’ll have to wait until MLB rolls out its challenge probability and value numbers. Even without exact facts and figures, the new ABS system still seems to give William Contreras all the tools he needs to pump up his defensive value in 2026. View the full article

Kyle Finnegan is a name that has been floated and connected with the Chicago Cubs dating back to last offseason, when he was non-tendered by the Washington Nationals. As the trade deadline approached in the summer of 2025, his name was once again floated by Patrick Mooney and Sahdev Shama of The Athletic as a name the team was interested in. Instead of ending up on the North Side of Chicago, the Nationals instead dealt him to the Detroit Tigers. Now, as the Cubs look to rebuild their bullpen this offseason, the reliever could once again fit into the team's plans. Finnegan, 34, is a bit of a late bloomer, with his first full Major League Baseball season coming when he was already 29 years old. Between 2021 and 2025, the right-hander has been a solid bullpen arm, providing 2.2 fWAR over 322 innings pitched. If there is a bit of a knock on the former Nationals closer, it is that he's always been a bit home-run prone, giving up at least nine per year, and maxing out in 2023 with 11 round-trippers surrendered. For the Cubs, this may be less of an issue than for other teams, as Wrigley Field has done a great job suppressing offense all on it's own. Between 2023 and 2025, Wrigley Field has ranked 25th in offensive run value according to Baseball Savant's park factors, as well as below league average for home runs surrendered. There will still be days where the wind is howling, but it seems that the winds have literally shifted in on this front. However, the Detroit Tigers may have done the heavy lifting for the other 29 MLB organizations already by helping Finnegan change his pitch mix. Finnegan has plenty of velocity sitting between 96 and 97mph and a plus fastball shape according to FanGraphs' Stuff+ pitch modeling, but the pitch has been hit fairly well over the last few years, finishing with wOBA's against of .299, .339, and .349 over the last three seasons, respectively. Contrast, then, the reliever's other main offering, his split-finger, a pitch that has had, over the same span, wOBA's against of .254, .271, and .184, respectively. It grades out incredibly well by Stuff+ as well, and gets tons of whiffs—nearly 35% of the time in two of those three seasons. It's a great pitch, which makes it all-the-more-baffling that while with Washington, he threw the fastball nearly 70% of the time. Finnegan was able to remain a good pitcher, but there was meat on the bone that was being tossed in the trash can. This all changed last summer after being acquired by the Detroit Tigers who, over the course of two months, flipped his pitch usage. By the end of the season, Finnegan was throwing his split-finger fastball nearly 60% of the time, up from his 30% with Washington. This transformed the right-handed hurler from a good reliever to a near-elite one. Look at the difference between his time in Washington and Detroit in 2025: Finnegan saw improvement across the board (outside of hard-hit percentage). It shouldn't be shocking that featuring his best pitch significantly more, and one designed to increase ground balls and decrease fly balls. would be all that was needed to generate a major jump in the reliever's profile, and yet, Washington couldn't figure this one out. None of this is to say I would expect him to remain a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher moving forward, but that with a heavy dose of split fingers, he's likely going to be a significantly better option that he had been with the Nationals. The best thing about him, however, is that he won't break the bank. The right-hander did not feature in the Top 50 Diamond Centric Free Agent Rankings, and with his age-34 season upcoming, likely won't require a multi-year commitment to secure his services for the 2026 campaign. Knowing how the Cubs enjoy building their bullpen and their reluctance to fly above the luxury tax limits, he would fit nicely into their structure and would likely provide a strong back-end piece with Daniel Palencia and Phil Maton already under contract. He may not be as exciting as someone like Devin Williams or Robert Suarez at first, but could emerge as the steal of the offseason if he can keep up his momentum from Detroit. What do you think of Kyle Finnegan? Would you approve of the Cubs adding him to their 2026 bullpen? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article

Kyle Finnegan is a name that has been floated and connected with the Chicago Cubs dating back to last offseason, when he was non-tendered by the Washington Nationals. As the trade deadline approached in the summer of 2025, his name was once again floated by Patrick Mooney and Sahdev Shama of The Athletic as a name the team was interested in. Instead of ending up on the North Side of Chicago, the Nationals instead dealt him to the Detroit Tigers. Now, as the Cubs look to rebuild their bullpen this offseason, the reliever could once again fit into the team's plans. Finnegan, 34, is a bit of a late bloomer, with his first full Major League Baseball season coming when he was already 29 years old. Between 2021 and 2025, the right-hander has been a solid bullpen arm, providing 2.2 fWAR over 322 innings pitched. If there is a bit of a knock on the former Nationals closer, it is that he's always been a bit home-run prone, giving up at least nine per year, and maxing out in 2023 with 11 round-trippers surrendered. For the Cubs, this may be less of an issue than for other teams, as Wrigley Field has done a great job suppressing offense all on it's own. Between 2023 and 2025, Wrigley Field has ranked 25th in offensive run value according to Baseball Savant's park factors, as well as below league average for home runs surrendered. There will still be days where the wind is howling, but it seems that the winds have literally shifted in on this front. However, the Detroit Tigers may have done the heavy lifting for the other 29 MLB organizations already by helping Finnegan change his pitch mix. Finnegan has plenty of velocity sitting between 96 and 97mph and a plus fastball shape according to FanGraphs' Stuff+ pitch modeling, but the pitch has been hit fairly well over the last few years, finishing with wOBA's against of .299, .339, and .349 over the last three seasons, respectively. Contrast, then, the reliever's other main offering, his split-finger, a pitch that has had, over the same span, wOBA's against of .254, .271, and .184, respectively. It grades out incredibly well by Stuff+ as well, and gets tons of whiffs—nearly 35% of the time in two of those three seasons. It's a great pitch, which makes it all-the-more-baffling that while with Washington, he threw the fastball nearly 70% of the time. Finnegan was able to remain a good pitcher, but there was meat on the bone that was being tossed in the trash can. This all changed last summer after being acquired by the Detroit Tigers who, over the course of two months, flipped his pitch usage. By the end of the season, Finnegan was throwing his split-finger fastball nearly 60% of the time, up from his 30% with Washington. This transformed the right-handed hurler from a good reliever to a near-elite one. Look at the difference between his time in Washington and Detroit in 2025: Finnegan saw improvement across the board (outside of hard-hit percentage). It shouldn't be shocking that featuring his best pitch significantly more, and one designed to increase ground balls and decrease fly balls. would be all that was needed to generate a major jump in the reliever's profile, and yet, Washington couldn't figure this one out. None of this is to say I would expect him to remain a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher moving forward, but that with a heavy dose of split fingers, he's likely going to be a significantly better option that he had been with the Nationals. The best thing about him, however, is that he won't break the bank. The right-hander did not feature in the Top 50 Diamond Centric Free Agent Rankings, and with his age-34 season upcoming, likely won't require a multi-year commitment to secure his services for the 2026 campaign. Knowing how the Cubs enjoy building their bullpen and their reluctance to fly above the luxury tax limits, he would fit nicely into their structure and would likely provide a strong back-end piece with Daniel Palencia and Phil Maton already under contract. He may not be as exciting as someone like Devin Williams or Robert Suarez at first, but could emerge as the steal of the offseason if he can keep up his momentum from Detroit. What do you think of Kyle Finnegan? Would you approve of the Cubs adding him to their 2026 bullpen? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article

Miguel Sano is doing the thing again. The ball is jumping off his bat in the Dominican Winter League, and he is currently leading the circuit in OPS. This is the version of Sano that Twins fans remember well. Towering home runs. Light tower power. A swing that seems to require its own ZIP code. It is all there, and it always seems to show up when he heads home for the winter. And in a year where the Twins need a first baseman, have a tight payroll, and are open to creative roster fits, it is at least fair to ask the question. Could the organization really consider bringing him back? The idea is light-hearted on the surface because it has become almost mythical with Sano. He is still only 32. He still looks like he was built to hit baseballs out of sight. And he still has the same blend of talent and pure strength that once made him the crown jewel of the Twins prospect system. At his best, he changed games with one swing. At his worst, he frustrated fans, coaches, and front offices. That is part of the package, and it always has been. His recent big-league struggles are no secret. His production dipped sharply in his final seasons with Minnesota, including a .342 OPS in 2022. His conditioning and maturity were questioned more than once. He bounced around without gaining traction, including playing 28 games with the Angels in 2024 (73 OPS+). Since then, he has played only in the Dominican Winter League, and it seemed the door had closed for good. In 60 plate appearances this year, he's gone 18-for-51 (.353 BA) with seven homers, three doubles, and an 11-to-7 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. Even with those totals, it is hard to imagine a contending club handing him a guaranteed job. But then you see the Winter League numbers. You see the highlights. And when a team like the Twins is trying to field a competitive roster without expanding payroll, it opens the door to some creative thinking. The front office has already shown its willingness to take a flier, offering Ty France a non-guaranteed $1 million contract. Suppose that is the market for depth bats with upside, who would object to doing the same with Sano? The risk is minimal, and the upside is not imaginary. He hit a pile of home runs during Derek Shelton’s years as hitting coach in Minnesota, including a career-high 34 bombs in 2019. Maybe there is a relationship there that could help both sides. Maybe there's still trust in place. Or maybe it is just a fun storyline. This is not an argument that the Twins should sign him. First base is a critical position for a club that is on the fringes of contention. There are safer options. There are more reliable bats. And there is a lengthy track record showing that Sano has struggled to consistently translate Winter League success to a full major league season. The team needs stability, not wishful thinking. Still, there is something undeniably entertaining about the idea. Old friends rarely return in baseball, but sometimes they do. Sometimes a player finds himself late in his career. Sometimes the fit makes sense even when logic says it should not. The Twins should not bank on Sano being part of their 2026 solution, yet it is perfectly reasonable to keep an open mind for the right price. The story may end exactly where most expect it to. Sano will take his Winter League dominance somewhere else while Minnesota finds a safer everyday first baseman. But in an offseason that will require creativity and thrift, he remains one of the more fascinating names to keep an eye on. Sometimes, the most improbable options make the winter a little more fun. Should the Twins consider a reunion with Sano? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox made an early offseason splash by acquiring Sonny Gray, whom they'll pay just $21 million in 2026 thanks to the St. Louis Cardinals picking up half of his remaining salary. Soon after the trade, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reported that Boston had shifted its attention to an impact middle-of-the-order bat. That approach is reasonable, but Gray is not the number two starter many fans envisioned when the offseason began. Hopes of pairing Garrett Crochet with Joe Ryan created dreams of one of the most dominant one-two punches in the sport. Gray instead profiles as an upper-tier number three starter. That still carries value, but it does not justify ignoring additional upgrades. As our own @Maddie Landis illustrated, Gray’s velocity continues to dip and he has become increasingly reliant on his breaking pitches to miss bats. His sweeper was dominant last season with the highest strikeout rate among all qualified sweepers. Along with the near one run gap between his SIERA and ERA, there is reason to believe he can regain his 2023 form, a season where he finished second in American League Cy Young voting. Even so, he is not enough to stabilize the rotation on his own. FanGraphs’ Roster Resource currently projects Patrick Sandoval, who has not pitched in a year and a half due to a strained left elbow, as the fifth starter. Kutter Crawford is slotted fourth after also missing 2025. The Red Sox can slow-play their returns, but relying on both early in the season does not create confidence. Meanwhile, the rival Toronto Blue Jays recently signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, 210 million dollar contract and widened the gap. If Boston intends to spend heavily on a bat, there are still cost-efficient pitching upgrades available that would keep the club under the third luxury tax threshold. 1. Freddy Peralta Reporting from MLBTradeRumors.com and The Athletic suggests that the Brewers may be concerned about their long-term payroll. Milwaukee has frequently moved top pitchers one year before free agency — see Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams — and could do the same with Peralta. Peralta has one year left before free agency and is owed only eight million dollars in 2026. This gives the Red Sox significant flexibility to add both a bat and bullpen help. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young voting this past season and has never posted a strikeout rate below 27.1 percent. For a Boston team that was only slightly above league average at striking out opponents, Peralta’s three straight seasons with 200 or more strikeouts would raise the rotation’s ceiling considerably. There are signs of some good luck in his most recent performance. His strand rate of 85.5 percent was well above his career norms, and his .243 batting average on balls in play was below the league average of .291. Some regression is expected, but even with that in mind, Peralta is easily worth his contract and would immediately slot in as the number two starter in Boston. 2. Merrill Kelly If the Red Sox want a cost-effective free agent starter, Merrill Kelly is an ideal option who can serve as a strong fourth starter while performing like an above-average number three. Most projections, including DiamondCentric’s, estimate his price at about 18 million dollars per year. year during that stretch. Since 2022, Kelly’s highest ERA is 4.03, and his SIERA has ranged from 3.95 to 4.12 in each season. He has delivered an fWAR of either 3.1 or 3.2 in every full season. His changeup is one of the best in the league with a .147 isolated slugging allowed, a 74 wRC+ against, and 3.5 inches of extra movement compared to similar pitchers. Kelly may cost about what Walker Buehler received, but he offers a much higher floor and is not a developmental project. Whoever signs him can reasonably expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 over about 160 innings. With Boston sitting about 20 million dollars below the first luxury tax threshold, Kelly fits perfectly as a finishing piece for the rotation. The Red Sox should prioritize adding a bat, but their current rotation is not strong enough to compete with Toronto or New York. They have depth options for the fifth spot that include Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, and Tanner Houck once he returns. Depth is valuable once injuries occur, but elite teams win with top-tier pitching, not only with back-end coverage. Peralta offers the higher-impact solution and Kelly provides dependable stability. Boston currently projects for the second-highest starting pitcher WAR behind the Dodgers, but projections only matter so much. If the Red Sox remain quiet on the pitching front, they will fall behind quickly. One more meaningful addition could secure their place among the league’s best. View the full article

On Saturday, Boston Globe reporter Alex Speier reported that the Royals may be open to trading Cole Ragans for a package involving a Major League outfielder, with Jarren Duran being floated as the centerpiece of such a trade. Here's a snippet from Speier's piece that discusses trade interest between the Red Sox and Royals and what a possible Ragans trade could look like, courtesy of Red Sox Stats on Twitter. We have talked about Duran as a trade possibility for the Royals before on Royals Keep. He would certainly boost a Kansas City outfield that rated as the worst in baseball in both fWAR (-1.4) and wRC+ (70). Duran had 3.9 fWAR and 111 wRC+ in 696 plate appearances, which led all Red Sox outfielders. However, this is the first time the mention of Ragans has been floated in trade rumors this offseason (Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron have been mentioned as trade candidates). Ragans was hurt last season, making only 13 starts and pitching 61.2 innings for Kansas City. He also posted a 4.67 ERA, his worst mark since joining the Royals in 2023 at the Trade Deadline. However, the 27-year-old lefty still had a 38.1% K rate and a 30.4% K-BB%, the latter the third-best rate among pitchers with 60 or more innings. As a result, Ragans has been identified as a bounce-back candidate for 2026 by many experts, especially if he can return to his 2024 form, which saw him post a 3.14 ERA and 4.9 fWAR in 186.1 IP. The Royals signed Ragans to a three-year, $13.25 million extension last offseason. While the deal gives him and the Royals some salary stability from 2025 to 2027, he will still have one more year of arbitration in 2028 before becoming a free agent in 2029. If Ragans rebounds to his 2024 self, he could be due for a big payday when he becomes a free agent, which may be difficult for the Royals after committing money to Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo over the past calendar year. The Red Sox recently acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, which lessens the need for an immediate trade to improve the rotation. However, Boston still needs help at the bottom of the rotation, especially if it wants to compete in a division with the Yankees and Blue Jays. Roster Resource projects Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval to be in the rotation for 2026, and neither pitched for the Red Sox last year due to injuries. Photo Credit: © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images View the full article

After the Minnesota Twins traded right-handed hitting outfielder Harrison Bader to the Philadelphia Phillies during the organization's Trade Deadline mass exodus, left field became a hodgepodge for the club, with Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, James Outman, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. , Kody Clemens, and Alan Roden earning playing time at the position. This quintet failed to impress, hitting a combined .217/.298/.336 with a 79 wRC+ over 332 plate appearances. Still, some players stood out in left field late last season, signaling they could earn extended roles at the position next season. The primary player who took advantage of their opportunity was Martin. Hitting .282/.374/.365 with one home run, eight doubles, and a 113 wRC+ over 181 plate appearances, the 26-year-old impressed as Minnesota's primary left fielder, making 37 appearances at the position late last season. Showcasing a glimpse of the offensive profile that made him one of the most highly-touted college bats in the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Martin's defense in left field also impressed, with the speedy outfielder generating three Outs Above Average (OAA) over 262 innings at the position. With Larnach expected to either be traded this winter or become the club's primary designated hitter early next season, Martin should be penciled in for a good share of left field starts entering next season. The contact-skilled right-handed bat won't develop into a power-hitting bat. Still, given his above-average strikeout rate, near-elite contact profile, and plus range, Martin should be an above-average contributor in left field, providing Minnesota a strong foundation at the position in 2026. Keirsey is no longer with the organization. Outman will likely continue to mix in at the position early next spring, but is out of options, and thus is also a DFA candidate who could no longer be a Twin come Opening Day. Clemens could be in the mix in left field, but President of Baseball and Business Operations Derek Falvey stated he will receive extended opportunities at first base next season. As mentioned earlier, Larnach is expected to either depart the organization or move off the position, meaning Martin's primary platoon partner is expected to be Roden. Acquired alongside Kendry Rojas in the trade that sent Louis Varland to the Toronto Blue Jays, Roden struggled in his small sample with the Twins, hitting .158/.200/.263 with a 26 wRC+ over 40 plate appearances. The 25-year-old's struggles weren't unique to Minnesota, evidenced by him hitting .204/.283/.306 with a 67 wRC+ over 113 plate appearances with Toronto. Despite struggling at the plate in his rookie campaign, the left-handed bat excelled at Triple-A the past two seasons, generating a 147 wRC+ over 428 plate appearances while posting an elite strikeout rate and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Unsurprisingly, Roden has struggled against left-handed pitching in the high minors and the majors. Yet, he hit .350/.436/.540 over 117 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at Triple-A last season, signaling he could become an above-average hitter against right-handed pitching with more opportunities next season. The former Blue Jays prospect is also a plus fielder, evidenced by his sporting plus range in left last season (2 OAA) alongside well-above-average arm strength. Martin and Roden are both young, inexperienced bats who have less than 600 combined plate appearances in the majors. Still, given their sustained success and encouraging advanced metrics at Triple-A the previous two seasons, plus defensive profiles, and above-average athleticism and speed, the duo could blossom into one of the more productive and exciting left field platoons in baseball early next season, an encouraging outlook for a Twins team blanketed in uncertainty. View the full article

The San Diego Padres need Joe Musgrove to perform. Last year’s rotation was already an island of misfit toys, and things are only getting more complicated in 2026. Nick Pivetta will return, but can the 32-year-old breakout star be trusted to sustain his career-high output from last season? No one knows where Dylan Cease or Michael King will be pitching, but it’s unlikely San Diego keeps both. Ownership is in shambles and, unlike years past, can’t be counted on to save the day with a big signing or trade. (Yes, I’ll still be delusional and pray for Tarik Skubal like every other fanbase.) The brightest glimmer of hope for the Padres’ staff is the return of Joe Musgrove. He’s dealt with many injuries since 2023: Spring training fractured toe Shoulder capsule issue Bone spur Torn ulnar collateral ligament Tommy John surgery Returning to dominance won’t be easy, but with modern treatment plans and his history of success, he can still be a key piece of the rotation. Before the injuries, he was one of the most reliable pitchers in baseball. His last two fully healthy seasons, 2021 and 2022, included more than 180 innings each. During that stretch, he logged: 362 2/3 IP 3.06 ERA 3.64 FIP 3.58 xERA 26% strikeout rate 6.5% walk rate The most predictable drop-off will be in his workload. It’s unlikely he returns to the innings-eater he was a few seasons ago. Musgrove has already spoken about “easing” himself back into action, and that’s okay. In 2025, only two Padres starters threw more than 140 innings (Pivetta and Cease), and only one other reached 100 (Randy Vásquez). King was injured, Darvish was injured, and the Nestor Cortes/JP Sears deadline duo was notably unproductive. Despite that, the Padres still won 90 games and fielded a respectable pitching staff. Essentially, the bar for Musgrove to come in and be an upgrade is fairly low. The focus has to be on avoiding re-injury and making the innings he does throw as productive as possible. So, what can we expect? Musgrove has shown he can succeed even when he’s not fully healthy. Coming back from Tommy John surgery is a different level of adversity, but his 2023 and 2024 seasons are encouraging. Even though he never surpassed 100 innings in either year, he still produced: 3.47 ERA 3.74 FIP 3.69 xERA 24.5% strikeout rate 5.4% walk rate There’s clearly reason to believe in Musgrove’s resilience. Also, he isn’t a fastball-dependent pitcher. That’s important because many pitchers who get Tommy John struggle to survive the velocity drop. Musgrove throws his fastball just 25% of the time with an average velocity of 93 mph (1.7 mph below average). His fastball velocity hasn’t been above the 34th percentile since 2021, when it sat in the 45th. What will affect him more is a potential decline in spin rate. Musgrove has been in the 98th or 99th percentile in fastball spin since 2021. Compare that with Jacob deGrom, who missed a similar amount of time after Tommy John surgery and has dealt with his own injury battles. DeGrom dropped about five percentiles in both velocity and spin rate, yet still had a dominant return in 2025. Now, Musgrove isn’t deGrom, but he also isn’t as reliant on power pitching (elite velocity and high-spin off-speed pitches). Instead, he navigates lineups with a five-pitch mix and pinpoint command. Those traits don’t vanish—he’ll just need time to shake off rust. With likely declines in fastball metrics and breaking balls posing higher injury risk, expect Musgrove to lean more on his changeup. He threw it 11.4% of the time in 2023, his highest mark since 2018, and it became his most effective pitch, yielding a 40.6% whiff rate and 22.9% putaway rate. A cutter increase should complement that. The cutter has been one of Musgrove’s most consistent pitches, never posting a negative run value on Statcast. In 2023, the same year he threw more changeups, the cutter had a run value of +7. Shifting away from a fastball/curveball vertical attack and moving toward a horizontal approach with cutters and changeups isn’t just healthier, it’s effective. That said, he can still trust his breaking balls. Unlike fastballs, his curveball and sweeper should remain sharp. Looking at deGrom again—whose 90+ mph slider is one of the most arm-taxing pitches in baseball—he saw no drop in slider velocity or spin in 2025. In fact, he kept his RPM above 2,600, something he rarely did even in his prime. Hopefully, San Diego can use that same magic to keep Musgrove’s breaking pitches spinning. He typically throws his sweeper and curveball around 20% each. Overall, he’ll likely see a decline in velocity that will reduce the fastball’s effectiveness. He’ll also be coming off a long injured-list stint and a difficult surgery. Protecting his health will be the priority, and spinning a heavy load of breaking balls immediately isn’t smart. Still, sports science is stronger than ever, and pitchers like deGrom have been returning from similar injuries. We also know that Musgrove plans to ease back into a full starter workload. With that in mind, here’s my prediction: 2026 Projection 120 IP 3.75 ERA 3.98 FIP 23.8% strikeout rate 5.9% walk rate Pitch Mix 23.5% fastball 18% curveball 22% cutter 20% slider/sweeper 15% changeup 1.5% other It may not be Cy Young-level production, but this output would be a significant upgrade for a rotation in desperate need of stability. View the full article

Ben Brown's trajectory over the course of 2025 landed as one of the more enigmatic episodes of the 2025 Chicago Cubs. On one hand, his mix of an upper-90s fastball and destructive knuckle-curve led to some strong results in matters of balls and strikes. Brown's 25.6 percent strikeout rate sat in the 73rd percentile and his 6.8 percent walk rate finished in the 71st. Of course, on the other hand, he got touched up in the contact game to the tune of a sixth-percentile hard-hit rate (47.3 percent) and a seventh-percentile barrel rate (11.4 percent). That somewhat paradoxical mix left him with an unsightly 5.92 ERA, an eventual demotion to Iowa, and larger questions about his future role as a member of this pitching staff. Namely, the following question: Is there a path toward continued starting opportunities for Ben Brown, or is he destined for relief work in some form? While not initially a rotation candidate, a strong spring performance during the exhibition season afforded Brown a legitimate shot at being part of the starting five from 2025's outset. A competition that seemingly came down to he and Colin Rea resulted in Brown winning the job on the heels of the tantalizing stuff wrought by that two-pitch mix. While Rea became a necessity within the rotation in his own right, Brown held onto regular duty for most of the first two months of the season. By the end of May, however, Craig Counsell experimented with an opener given Brown's struggles that resulted in starts in which he allowed five, six, six, and eight earned runs. Injuries necessitated continued turns, but Brown found himself out of the starting five permanently by the end of July. From there, he was deployed in relief (primarily as a bulk arm) for the remaining 18 of his 106 1/3 total innings for the year. Split between starting and bullpen work, the following is how Brown's numbers shook out in 2025: As a Starter: 75 2/3 IP, 6.30 ERA (4.47 FIP), 23.8 K%, 6.7 BB%, .362 wOBA against As a Reliever: 30 2/3 IP, 4.99 ERA (3.10 FIP), 30.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, .300 wOBA against Despite the innings sample heavily leaning toward the starting side, there's immediately sort of a clear picture as to which path makes more sense for Brown. Such an idea is furthered by a 4.19 ERA the first time facing hitters as a reliever against a 5.70 ERA the first time facing hitters as a starter. His 35.3 percent strikeout rate the first time through the order as a reliever was also his best individual mark in any trip through the order, regardless of role. In relief, Brown was also able to work at an eight-percent dip in hard contact (by FanGraphs' definition), a decreased fly-ball rate, and a subsequent decrease in his homer-to-fly-ball ratio. In a number of different ways, the numbers pretty easily support Ben Brown making a transition to full-time relief duty. But it's also not as simple as "this guy is performing better in this scenario, so we should drop him into said scenario full time." Instead, the reason for keeping Brown in relief is the same as it's always been: his failure to develop a third pitch. Brown attempted to incorporate a changeup as the season wore on. It was a journey that would prove to be unsuccessful, not only in terms of usage, but outcomes. Brown threw the changeup just 4.5 percent of the time in 2025, with its usage peaking at 10 percent in July. By the time he entered regular work out of the bullpen, it dropped to 3.5 and 4.3 percent usage in the season's final two months, respectively. And it's not just a matter of his struggling to incorporate the pitch. It's what happened when he did. Even with a smaller sample in its use, Brown's changeup was touched for hard contact exactly 50 percent of the time, with a barrel rate of 20 percent and a fly-ball rate lingering around 30. Obviously, none of those trends represent a recipe for success. On just about every level, Brown struggled to maintain anything effective with that pitch despite the movement he was able to generate with it. The following is the contour of each of Brown's two primary pitches from 2025 (the fastball and the knuckle-curve): For the most part, that's exactly how those should look. You want a concentrated area with a pitch like a fastball. Something like a knuckle-curve is going to expand that concentration a little, but the vertical nature of the contour's trend still reads in exactly the way it should. And then you get to the changeup: Again, it's not only a matter of Brown's inability to know when to use the pitch, but throwing the pitch at all. It's not that it got touched up by opposing hitters—it's that he had very little command over the pitch at large. Part of that is the nature of trying to add a pitch on the fly. The pitch flailing so erratically doesn't lend itself to much confidence that Brown would be able to do it over the long-term, either. Without that third pitch coming to fruition, there's no argument for providing Brown with an opportunity to get back into the starting five. The other two pitches would have to be elite. And while the knuckle-curve might offer that (121 Stuff+), the fastball does not (84 Stuff+). Barring some massive development in the lab this winter, it almost becomes impossible to justify as a result. If the splits don't say so, the absence of a meaningful third pitch certainly does. View the full article

Major League Baseball is inching toward a critical crossroads. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires at the end of the 2026 season, and both the league and the MLB Players Association are preparing for a heated negotiation cycle that could spill into the 2027 campaign. That uncertainty has many players, owners, and fans bracing for the possibility of another lockout. Long-standing debates over a potential salary cap, competitive balance, and revenue distribution sit at the core of the tension. Twins fans are watching closely because the next CBA could bring changes that reshape the franchise’s future. While a lockout would be painful in the moment, the resulting agreement might benefit mid-market clubs like Minnesota in surprising ways. Salary Cap and Salary Floor Possibilities For decades, the Twins have lived in a league that rewards massive spending. The Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies regularly show what happens when a team pours resources into the roster. Their path to October often looks much smoother than the one available to teams operating on tighter budgets. Outliers break through from time to time, but the numbers are clear. World Series contenders tend to come from the top of the payroll rankings. Owners are again pushing for a salary cap, an idea players continue to reject. But if the topic gains traction, it could come with a salary floor. That part of the conversation matters deeply for Minnesota. A salary floor would force the Twins to invest a certain amount in payroll each season. Fans frustrated by dips in spending would welcome the mandate because it would align payroll with competitive goals rather than fluctuate with market conditions or ownership preferences. A cap system would introduce new rules and restrictions, but for a franchise that rarely pushes past the middle of the spending pack, the ceiling matters far less than the floor. A consistent spending baseline could help the Twins maintain depth and avoid seasons where their roster relies too heavily on luck. Television Revenue and the Shift from Regional Networks The collapse of regional sports networks has hit several clubs hard, and the Twins are among the most affected. The move to Twins.TV last season brought greater accessibility for fans but created financial uncertainty. Under the old RSN model, teams received guaranteed broadcast revenue. Under the new setup, Minnesota likely saw a significant drop in media income. This is why league-wide media restructuring could be a massive win for the Twins. MLB is pushing toward a more unified national broadcast approach, and major platforms like ESPN and Netflix have shown interest. If the league can bundle local rights into a national package and distribute revenue more evenly, mid-market teams would benefit immediately. For the Twins, that could mean restoring lost revenue and creating long-term financial stability. In a sport where media money drives payroll decisions, a stronger national model would give Minnesota far more flexibility. Competitive Balance and a Changing League Structure Competitive balance is the heartbeat of CBA negotiations. Every issue, from revenue sharing to expansion, connects back to leveling the field between massive and mid-sized markets. MLB could pursue several structural changes, including a salary floor, a stricter cap system, realignment, or expansion. As previously mentioned, a salary floor would help the Twins by requiring low-spending clubs to increase investment. A tougher cap-and-tax system could prevent large market teams from hoarding talent. These changes would give Minnesota a more realistic chance to compete consistently with baseball’s financial heavyweights. Realignment is more complicated. The Twins currently benefit from the softest division in the sport. Realignment could tighten competition and make postseason paths more challenging. Expansion adds more teams to the mix and could redistribute talent and revenue in unpredictable ways. Even with these risks, most competitive balance changes tend to benefit clubs in markets like Minnesota. Anything that narrows the economic gap between teams increases the Twins’ chances of building sustainable success. A More Stable Economic Landscape and the Future of Twins Ownership There is another angle that Twins fans should not overlook. A stronger and more stable economic environment for baseball could influence the ownership landscape. The Pohlad family has already explored selling minority stakes in the team. If MLB’s next CBA creates firmer financial footing with stabilized media revenue, more explicit payroll rules, and healthier league-wide structures, the incentive to sell could grow. Prospective buyers want predictability. They want guaranteed revenue streams, consistent league policies, and less volatility in the economic model. A post-CBA environment that offers exactly that may open the door for a more serious ownership shift. While the Pohlads have been steady owners for decades, many fans believe a fresh ownership group could bring greater ambition and investment. If the next CBA pushes baseball toward long-term stability, it could create the conditions needed for the Pohlads to finally move forward with a sale. That possibility alone gives Twins fans another reason to watch these negotiations closely. The next CBA carries enormous implications for the Minnesota Twins. A salary floor could guarantee more consistent spending. A revamped national media model could replace lost revenue and stabilize payroll capacity. Competitive balance reforms could limit the overwhelming advantages enjoyed by the sport’s richest teams. Realignment presents risks, but the overall picture still tilts in Minnesota's favor. Add in the potential for a more stable economic environment to spark real ownership change, and the Twins could emerge from the next CBA in a significantly stronger position. The road to 2027 may be bumpy, but the destination could offer real hope for the franchise’s future. Will the next CBA help mid-market teams like the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Wednesday night’s report that Dylan Cease had signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Blue Jays sent ripples across Major League Baseball. The signing will push the Jays’ 2026 payroll close to $270 million and may result in less flexibility for additional big signings. MLB is big business. The league generated over $12 billion in revenue in 2024, with the average team valuation sitting at $2.6 billion. In 2000, Rogers bought an 80% stake in the Blue Jays for $165 million in cash and stocks. They purchased the remaining stake from Interbrew in 2004. Today, the Jays are worth between $2.15 billion and $2.4 billion. Consistent success over the years has played a role in that valuation, but so has a holistic approach to running the organization. Rogers owns everything from the stadium to the broadcasting rights and everything in between. If you aren’t an accountant, it can be challenging to parse out exactly how much money the Jays are making for Rogers. The team’s net stadium revenue was $300 million in 2024. Its operating income was a loss of $34 million. Forbes suggests those numbers were a bit higher, at $384 million in revenue and a loss of $60 million. Keep in mind, the losses don’t take into account ticket sales, broadcast revenue, merchandise and overall brand awareness. Again, those numbers are from 2024, not last year. With the Jays coming within a game of the World Series title this fall, their extended postseason run ensured additional revenue in their coffers. For a sense of what an organization rakes in during the playoffs, consider that the collective agreement with the players’ association allocated the players $129.1 million of ticket revenue in 2024. And that's just the players' portion. Heck, the World Series 50/50 winner took home $25 million!? All that to say, it isn’t surprising that the Jays have been spending and presumably will continue spending this offseason. Last season, the Mets had MLB’s largest payroll on Opening Day, in part because Shohei Ohtani and other Dodgers' players' contracts are heavily deferred. Last season, $68 million of Ohtani's $70 million salary was deferred. Cease, for what it's worth, also has deferrals in his deal that bring his average annual salary down from $30 million to $26 million. Anthony Santander, Toronto's biggest signing last winter, also has significant deferrals in his deal. The Jays' Opening Day payroll ranked fifth amongst MLB teams at just under $240 million, nearly $20 million more than the next closest teams (Rangers and Astros). Being close to half a billion still left the Jays more than $40 million behind the team just ahead of them on the list. The Phillies, at fourth overall in spending, had an Opening Day payroll of $284 million. At the end of the season, the Jays' payroll stayed steady in fifth spot, well over $100 million lower than the World Series champion Dodgers. For comparison's sake, the Marlins, Athletics and Rays all had payrolls under $80 million. In fact, the Marlins’ payroll on Opening Day last season was $67 million. The disparity between the Jays and the very top spenders is even more pronounced when you take into account MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax (CBT), which financially penalizes teams that exceed a set threshold. Last season, the first threshold for penalties was $241 million. The Dodgers once again established a new record for a luxury tax payment at $168 million. That was on top of their payroll costs. The Jays' CBT bill last season was only $10 million. Exchange rates and taxes can put the Jays at a bit of a disadvantage. While most of their revenue is in Canadian dollars, their payroll is in US currency. MLB’s revenue sharing is different than the CBT, as it distributes national revenue evenly to all teams. One of the unknowns when it comes to the Jays' revenue is how much Rogers generates from the “broadcast deal” with itself. The Dodgers have a 25-year, $8.35 billion deal with Spectrum for local rights that pays out an average of $334 million per season through 2038. Where does that leave the Jays when it comes to spending for the 2026 season? President Mark Shapiro has indicated that ownership has bought in (literally) on continuing to build. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s big extension early last season and now the signing of Cease demonstrate the validity of that sentiment. The 2026 Jays still need pieces. They need relief pitching, and they need at least one infielder. That infielder is either Bo Bichette or someone else if they shift players around. Those additions won’t come cheap, even if they come via trades. The talent pool in the system doesn’t sound like it is quite ready, so spending will play a role in how competitive a team the Jays field in 2026. With the Cease contract, the Jays’ spending will be heavily invested in six players (Guerrero, Cease, Santander, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Shane Bieber). Signing a marquee player like Bichette or Kyle Tucker would undoubtedly push the payroll closer to the likes of the Phillies ($284 million in 2025) and the Yankees ($293 million). While spending usually bodes well for teams, the Mets last season were the exception. Pending labour unrest might also be a big wrinkle on the horizon. The current collective agreement between MLB and its players expires in December 2026. The stumbling block will be the owners' fixation on establishing a salary cap. With the potential for a labour disruption that could impact the 2027 season, the Jays have decided to take an aggressive approach that mirrors that of other top-five spending franchises. Signing Cease so early in the offseason is an indication of that. They are investing heavily in core talent, leveraging fan engagement across Canada and globally, and maximizing sponsorship opportunities. The 2027 season isn't guaranteed, so the Jays are positioning themselves to make another deep run in 2026. After that, the Jays, along with all of MLB, will need to navigate uncertain waters. Remember what happened in 1994? If not, the recent Netflix documentary about the Montreal Expos highlights the building of what would have been a dynasty. Unfortunately, the work stoppage and a lack of ownership direction ultimately cost the city its team. The Jays are in a more enviable position. They are owned by a big company that is able to connect the dots when it comes to spending, success and revenue. They have a fanbase that extends beyond the city to an entire country. While the economics of baseball don’t make it easy on the team, they have found a formula that works. Here’s hoping that formula can weather a few more signings and a potential labour disruption. View the full article

The Winter Meetings: the biggest event of the MLB offseason. Annually, key figures from all across the baseball world gather in one place, this time in Orlando, Florida. The Winter Meetings give the sport a jolt of adrenaline, producing more than their fair share of rumors and transactions. Fish On First will have boots on ground with Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout there. Our guide below covers everything you need to know from the perspective of the Miami Marlins. This page will be regularly updated leading up to the start of the event. Table of contents Marlins moves so far Winter Meetings schedule Four big questions What we are hearing Marlins moves so far Here's a complete roundup of Marlins personnel changes since the end of the 2025 regular season. Acquired players: RHP Zach Brzykcy (waiver claim), RHP Evan McKendry (minor league deal), RHP Samuel Vásquez (minor league deal) and RHP Tyler Zuber (re-signed to minor league deal) Departed players who've found new teams: 1B/OF Troy Johnston (claimed by Colorado Rockies), RHP George Soriano (claimed by Baltimore Orioles), OF Joey Wiemer (traded to San Francisco Giants), LHP Adam Laskey (signed by Colorado Rockies) and RHP Freddy Tarnok (signed by NPB's Hiroshima Carp) Departed players who remain free agents: C Brian Navarreto, RHP Jesús Tinoco, RHP Valente Bellozo, RHP Christian Roa, INF Jack Winkler, RHP Lane Ramsey, RHP Morgan McSweeney, UTIL Dalvy Rosario, LHP Luis Palacios, OF Grant Richardson, OF Shane Sasaki and RHP Evan Fitterer Selected to 40-man roster: C Joe Mack, RHP Josh White and RHP William Kempner Coaching staff additions: Chris Hess (assistant hitting coach), Corbin Day (assistant hitting coach), Craig Driver (first base/catching coach) and Harry Wilonsky (bullpen catcher) Coaching staff departures: Derek Shomon (hired by Chicago White Sox), Joe Singley (Baltimore Orioles), Tyler Smarslok (Washington Nationals) and Chi Chi González Winter Meetings schedule The Hilton Bonnet Creek and Waldorf in Orlando, Florida, will host the 2025 Winter Meetings from December 8-11. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is expected to hold multiple media availabilities during the course of the week. 2026 MLB Draft Lottery (December 9) The lottery is very unpredictable, as the Marlins learned the hard way last year. They were tied with the Colorado Rockies for the best odds of winning the number one overall draft pick, but fell all the way to seventh. This time, the Marlins have a 1.85% of winning the lottery. The most likely outcome is that they will land the 10th pick. The drawing will be held at 4:00 p.m. ET and broadcasted to the public on MLB Network at 5:30 p.m. ET. Rule 5 draft (December 10) The Marlins are 12th in the Rule 5 draft order. However, they would need to open up at least one spot on their 40-man roster to participate in the major league phase of the draft. The draft begins at 2:00 p.m. ET. Unprotected Rule-5 eligible players in the Marlins organization include: Catchers Spencer Bramwell, Bennett Hostetler and Sam Praytor Infielders Nathan Martorella, Jacob Berry, Cody Morissette, Yiddi Cappe, Jesús Hernández, Echedry Vargas and Wilfredo Lara Outfielders Andrew Pintar and Ian Lewis Right-handed pitchers Zach McCambley, Matt Pushard, Jesse Bergin, Riskiel Tineo, Gabe Bierman, Alex Williams, Brandon White, Orlando Ortiz-Mayr, Tristan Stevens, Holt Jones, Juan Reynoso, Michael Pérez and Jhoniel Serrano Left-handed pitchers Dale Stanavich, Justin King, Dameivi Tineo and Brayan Mendoza Four big questions 1. What are the team's biggest needs? The Marlins have a nice combination of depth and upside in their starting rotation and outfield. Beyond that, they have to consider outside acquisitions to put themselves in a position to contend in 2026. First base is wide open for the Marlins. Eric Wagaman struggled in 2025 while starting the majority of the team's games, as did most of the other players who split time at the position. Still only 22 years old and coming off a disappointing season at Triple-A, Deyvison De Los Santos could use more development time. A veteran, short-term addition makes sense here. Ryan O'Hearn is coming off of an All-Star season with the Baltimore Orioles and later the San Diego Padres. Aging Paul Goldschmidt can still get red-hot for extended stretches. There's also the potential return of Josh Bell, who at the age of 33, still hit 22 home runs with a 107 wRC+. One trade target would be Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Díaz, who is coming off a season with a 135 wRC+. Before the offseason even began, reports linked the Marlins to some of this offseason's top high-leverage bullpen arms, and that continues to be a priority. Other than Ronny Henriquez, manager Clayton McCullough didn't have relievers he could trust in strikeout situations last year. Among all MLB teams, the Marlins 'pen ranked 22nd in ERA and 26th in fWAR. 2. Which returning players are candidates for position changes? One source told Fish On First that in addition to Wagaman, we could potentially see players such as Connor Norby, Graham Pauley and Liam Hicks receive reps at first base moving forward. Norby is the only one of that group who has no previous MLB experience there. Norby struggled as a full-time third baseman this past season—he posted minus-4 outs above average and minus-5 defensive runs saved. That may have bled into his offensive performance, slashing .251/.300/.389/.689 with eight home runs, 34 RBI and a 90 wRC+. Norby's usage will depend on whether the Marlins are comfortable enough in Pauley's all-around game to make him an everyday starter at the hot corner. Meanwhile, Agustín Ramírez will not be moved off of catcher anytime soon. There isn't a logical fallback plan for him, in the Marlins' opinion. When he was with the New York Yankees, Ramírez's minor league appearances at first base went very poorly. His lack of speed rules out a move to the outfield and they would rather live with flawed defense behind the plate than limit him to designated hitter. 3. Will any starters head to the bullpen? In Fish On First's most recent roster projection, the Marlins starting rotation consisted of Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez, Ryan Weathers and Janson Junk. That leaves Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, Adam Mazur, Ryan Gusto and Dax Fulton on the outside looking in, not to mention top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White, who are expected to be called up at some point this season. Could any of these traditional starters be converted into relievers and compete for opportunities in the bullpen? The Marlins have been patient with Meyer, a former first-round draft pick, but he's on the mend from yet another major surgery, this time to his left hip. His plus-plus slider has carried him for his entire career, and a move to the 'pen would allow him to throw it more often than ever. Although the Marlins could option him to the minors if he gets squeezed out of the rotation, he seems ready to contribute now in a more specialized role. Last season between Double-A and Triple-A, Fulton posted a 5.38 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 9.98 K/9 and 5.12 BB/9. Other than limiting home runs, there weren't any positive takeaways. A move to the bullpen could be in everybody's best interest as the 6'7" lefty provides a much different look to batters than any of the club's other arms. This is all assuming Alcantara and Cabrera are not moved. The Marlins listened to offers for both of them at the July trade deadline, but talks have not advanced to that point so far this offseason. 4. How much is Bruce Sherman willing to spend? The 2025 Marlins finished with a payroll of approximately $68 million, which was the lowest in MLB. They are currently projected to spend even less next season. It's difficult to earn a postseason spot, much less contend for a championship, with such limited investment from ownership. As we detail below, the front office is evaluating impactful free agents and potential contract extensions for core players. However, actually getting deals done will require money from principal owner Bruce Sherman, who has been non-committal about increasing payroll. What we are hearing - On the subject of high-leverage relievers, a source tells Fish On First that the Marlins are showing interest in both Devin Williams and Pete Fairbanks. Williams, who was with the New York Yankees last season, posted a 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 13.06 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and 18 saves through 62 innings pitched. Fairbanks, who had his $11M club option declined, posted a 2.83 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 8.80 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 for the Rays. He had career-highs of 27 saves and 60 ⅓ innings pitched. Either of them would instantly become the club's closer. - Despite recent reports linking Miami to right-hander Michael King, FOF has learned that a reunion with the former Marlins farmhand is highly unlikely. - Miami is in discussions with several pre-arbitration players about potential contract extensions. No player has received an extension from the Marlins since Richard Bleier in March 2022. - Between Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, Cabrera appears the more likely trade candidate this offseason—but Miami will only consider a deal that nets an overwhelming return. The organization expects Alcantara to be on the mound for Opening Day 2026. View the full article

Alex Jackson has not had the best career for a former first-round pick and backup catcher, but 2025 was his best season to date, even though it was limited to 37 games. Jeremy and Jamie review his numbers to see what kind of sample he could provide for the Twins in a similar number of games played next season.View the full article

Editor's Note: Dylan Cease signed with the Toronto Blue Jays after this was written but before it was published. In a pre-Thanksgiving shocker, the Boston Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals. Gray’s addition to the starting rotation, along with the $20 million the Cardinals sent with him, makes him the perfect Lucas Giolito replacement. However, he can't (and obviously won't) be the team's only premier addition this offseason. Ideally, the Red Sox are still in on an impact bat to play a corner infield spot, as well as another arm to slot into the number two spot in the rotation. According to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, the team is shifting their current focus to adding that impact bat as the Winter Meetings approach. This makes a ton of sense as the offseason hasn’t even truly gotten started. Yes, we’ve seen the Seattle Mariners lock up Josh Naylor long-term while the Rangers and Mets recently made a rare one-for-one trade in addition to the Gray trade. The ball won’t really get rolling until the Winter Meetings during the first weekend in December. As we know, that’s where Craig Breslow swung a blockbuster trade to bring Garrett Crochet to Boston last year. Could Breslow be looking to sign a name like Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber this time around? It’s likely, but he’s also poised to swing a trade for another arm while he’s there. As we’ve highlighted here at Talk Sox, the trade between the Rangers and Mets likely has a large impact on the plans the Red Sox have made for this offseason. The Rangers, a team that needed outfield help, now have it, and the Mets, who are still trying to figure out how to beat the Dodgers, now could use an impact bat to slot into their outfield and have pitchers to choose from. Luckily for them, the Red Sox are ripe with outfield talent who should be moved to add another arm into the rotation. Even though the offense is seeking a necessary upgrade, we saw just how crucial having three starters to carry the team into the playoffs is in modern day baseball. We’ve talked at length about how Crochet is the guy in Boston now, and for good reason, but even with the addition of Gray, he needs another arm behind him to take some of the weight off his shoulders. Brayan Bello took another step forward in 2025 until the end of the season when fatigue caught up with him and Connelley Early and Payton Tolle both flashed serious upside and will be competing for a backend rotation spot in spring training, but a true number two is still a must-add. Gray profiles as a number three starter at this point in his career. In 2025, he posted a 4.28 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate to go along with his 3.6 fWAR. He logged 180.2 innings over 32 games. That ERA is less than desirable and would have him ranked fourth on the Red Sox among starters who threw at least 20 games last season. His innings though, would have been second on the team by almost 20, and his fWAR would have placed him second as well, almost two full points higher than Giolito. Having that type of arm slide into the number three spot in the rotation means that when the Red Sox head into October, that they have three starters (Crochet, Gray, Bello) they can count on to carry them on a deep playoff run. Eschewing another top-tier pitching addition would be incredibly shortsighted in an American-League landscape that is lacking a true top contender outside of the Blue Jays and Mariners, and that's assuming they can both repeat their 2025 success. Sonny Gray is a great addition for the Red Sox, especially on a restructured contract that allows for the team to make more moves this offseason.. The Red Sox absolutely need to add an impact bat, and hopefully bring Alex Bregman back into the fold, but they shouldn’t put all their attention on the offensive side of the ball just yet. There are still ace-caliber arms that can be added over the coming days and weeks. If the goal is to emerge as more than just another contender among a crowded group of such teams, Boston would be wise to compound their addition of Gray with another front-of-the-rotation arm. View the full article