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Marlins manager Clayton McCullough speaks exclusively with Fish On First about his second season in Miami, becoming more relaxed in his position, players he's most excited to see make a leap in 2027 and more.View the full article

The 2026 Minnesota Twins were not supposed to be contenders. Heading into the season, expectations were low, and few people expected them to spend most of the year hanging around the American League playoff picture. Yet that is exactly what happened. The Twins were surprisingly in the playoff mix for roughly 80% of the season, were buyers at the trade deadline and even occupied a playoff spot midway through August. They were not mathematically eliminated until the middle of September. A big reason they remained relevant for so long was the weakness of the American League, but that should not take away from the fact that they had an opportunity in front of them. The Twins were playing meaningful baseball deep into the season, and the playoff spot was there for the taking. Unfortunately, the Twins could not take advantage of it. Despite becoming buyers at the trade deadline, Minnesota went on to become one of the worst teams in baseball over the final stretch of the season. The frustrating part is that this was not a roster that was completely incapable of competing. The Twins will likely finish the season with the second-most runs scored in the American League. Their starting rotation, despite its flaws, was not among the worst in baseball. The starters will finish 18th in MLB in fWAR and 14th in xERA. The defense was certainly a problem, but when looking at what ultimately kept the Twins from taking advantage of such a wide-open playing field, the bullpen stands out. The Twins bullpen was one of the worst in baseball for much of the season and will finish 26th in MLB in ERA. It also had the second-highest walk rate in baseball. Those numbers actually include the improvements Minnesota made at the trade deadline by acquiring A.J. Minter and Jeff Hoffman, meaning the full-season numbers make the bullpen look better than it was for much of the first half. Before the deadline, the Twins had the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. It took the front office most of the season to figure out what it wanted its bullpen to look like, from acquiring Yoendrys Gomez early in the season to turning Andrew Morris into a one-inning reliever in May and eventually adding Hoffman and Minter at the deadline. By the end, the Twins had finally put together some legitimate pieces, but all of that work still resulted in a bullpen that ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA, and well below average in metrics like FIP, WAR and WPA. That makes it difficult not to think about two star relievers who could have been in that bullpen all along. At last year's trade deadline, the Twins traded away their three best relievers in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. Jax has since transitioned into a starting role, so his situation is a little different. Duran and Varland, however, continued in the roles they had with Minnesota and turned in two of the best relief seasons in baseball. Duran was spectacular for the Phillies, posting Win Probability Added. He became exactly the type of high-leverage weapon Philadelphia hoped it was acquiring when it traded for him. Varland was even better. After showing flashes with the Twins, primarily in the bullpen, Varland took his career to another level after settling into a full-time relief role with Toronto. He posted a 1.29 ERA, trailing only Mason Miller for the best mark among MLB relievers. He was worth 3.1 fWAR and posted a 3.57 WPA, making him one of the most valuable relievers in baseball. Put the two seasons together and Duran and Varland were worth nearly six fWAR in 2026. That is an especially significant number when looking at the Twins' bullpen because Minnesota spent a large portion of the season relying on replacement-level players to fill innings. This bullpen needed significant help, while those two departed relievers combined to provide nearly six fWAR for other teams. Simply replacing some of the innings Minnesota gave to replacement-level relievers with Duran and Varland would have dramatically changed the quality of the bullpen. There is also a much bigger domino effect to consider. If Duran and Varland had been in Minnesota from the beginning of the season, the Twins certainly would not have blown as many games early in the year. A better bullpen would have meant a better record, which would have meant higher playoff odds at the trade deadline. Higher playoff odds could have led the front office to be more aggressive in July, potentially resulting in an even stronger roster for the final two months of the season. Instead of spending much of the year trying to figure out the bullpen, Minnesota could have spent those resources addressing other weaknesses. There is no way to know exactly how those alternate decisions would have played out, but the point is that the impact of keeping Duran and Varland would not have been limited to the innings they personally pitched. The other side of the equation is what the Twins actually received for the two relievers. Mick Abel, acquired in the Duran trade, barely had an opportunity to contribute before an injury ended his season. Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas, acquired in the Varland trade, also did not make a meaningful impact on the Twins' 2026 season. That does not mean those players cannot become important pieces for Minnesota in the future, and it would obviously be unfair to evaluate prospects solely on what they did in the first year after the trade. But it does make the opportunity cost of the trades much easier to see. The Twins gave up two relievers who became two of the best in baseball, and the players they received did not help them win games during a season in which the team was surprisingly close to the playoffs. That is the important distinction here. Trading Duran and Varland was much easier to justify if the Twins were convinced they were heading into a lost season and needed to prioritize the future. Both players were relatively inexpensive, had multiple years of team control remaining and had significant trade value. If the Twins had spent 2026 buried in the standings, nobody would be looking at these trades and wondering how many games they cost the team. Trading established relievers for promising prospects makes sense when a team is rebuilding. But the Twins insisted they were not rebuilding, and the 2026 season more or less proved that out. They were in the playoff race. They were buyers at the trade deadline. They were sitting in a playoff spot in August. They remained alive until September, despite having one of the worst bullpens in baseball. That is what makes the decision so much harder to swallow in hindsight. There is obviously no way to say that Duran and Varland would have guaranteed a playoff spot. Baseball does not work that cleanly, and there are too many variables involved to simply add their WAR to the Twins' win total and declare an alternate result. But it is difficult to look at the season the Twins just had and argue that those two players would not have made a significant difference. The offense was good enough. The starting pitching was good enough to keep the team competitive. The American League was vulnerable all season. The Twins remained in contention despite their bullpen being one of the biggest weaknesses on the roster. Maybe the Twins still would have fallen short with Duran and Varland. Maybe other weaknesses would have caught up with them. But considering how long they remained in the playoff race with a terrible bullpen, it is difficult not to wonder what would have happened if two of the best relievers in baseball had still been wearing Minnesota uniforms. So, what do you think? If the Twins had kept Jhoan Duran and Louis Varland instead of trading them last season, would Minnesota have made the playoffs in 2026? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! View the full article

No team really has a way to control the pace. Over a long season, you never know how they will arrive in October in terms of rhythm and injuries. The mere fact of being able to compete in September should be a reason for celebration for many organizations. But there are others that were built to reach the postseason stage, and the San Diego Padres have been one of them. Nothing less was expected, and the way they are playing baseball at the doorstep of the playoffs has raised expectations even further. It is almost certain that the Padres will face the Chicago Cubs in one of the National League Wild Card Series, an opponent who has given them lots of trouble recently. Chicago has won five of six games this season while posting an enormous +27 run differential. That would not be an ideal matchup given the strength of their offense. But even if they dodge that bullet as the Cubs quietly collapse down the stretch, there are some pressing questions this team must answer before officially starting their quest for a World Series trophy. Let’s break down some of the most important ones. Who should be the Game 2 starter after Michael King? Let’s start at the beginning of the chaos. When the trade deadline ended, this question seemed less complicated. The Padres reinforced themselves with 2021 American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and All-Star Casey Mize. Both arrived in San Diego with the goal of aiding a rotation besieged injuries that was surviving thanks to the great strength and durability of the bullpen. Even so, Padres starters posted a 4.62 xFIP and 4.3 fWAR in 112 starts during the first half of the season. The numbers have worsened to a 4.70 ERA and only 1.6 fWAR since. The two arms that were expected to be a strength have been precisely the most vulnerable. In 17 starts, Mize and Ray have combined for –0.5 fWAR, a 5-5 record and a 5.72 ERA with 55 strikeouts, 43 walks and 17 home runs allowed. Only five of the 17 starts have been quality starts, and thanks to the Padres’ dominant relief corps, those numbers have not looked worse in the final results of the games. In Mize’s nine starts, the Padres are 6-3 and have been able to salvage two of the outings in which he allowed at least four runs. Ray, although he has also been bombarded, has at least recorded five innings in six of his eight starts. His status as a left-hander could also fit against lineups with several left-handed hitters like the Cubs, but with what we have seen from both pitchers, the Padres will have to decide whether they feel comfortable trusting either in a short series. So, it is very likely that Walker Buehler or Nick Pivetta will compete for that spot as the Game 2 starter. Pivetta just returned from the injured list and had not pitched since April, but he has looked good in his return with a pair of wins and a 1.93 ERA in three starts. I don’t think Pivetta is a bad option for Game 2 considering that the Padres have a deep bullpen, especially if they can get a deep start out of King in Game 1. But there is one factor that makes the difference: historically, he has pitched much better against the Cubs. Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.83 ERA in nine appearances—eight as a starter—against Chicago in his career. The situation has gotten worse this season, with a 0-1 record, an 11.42 ERA, three home runs and 11 runs allowed in just 8 2/3 innings. Five of the Cubs’ regular hitters have driven in at least two runs against Buehler and four have hit home runs: Dansby Swanson (2), Michael Conforto (2), Seiya Suzuki and Miguel Amaya. Pivetta, on the other hand, has fared better. He is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and has recorded at least five innings in four of his five starts. The last time he faced Chicago in the regular season was in April 2025, when he pitched six innings of one-run ball to earn the Padres’ 4-2 victory. He followed that up with a strong outing (two earned runs over five innings) in last year's Wild Card Round. Again, Swanson and Conforto appear in the matchups with two home runs each, but among them only Ian Happ (3-for-10 with a double and six strikeouts) and Carson Kelly (3-for-6, triple and RBI with three strikeouts) have been able to produce against Pivetta’s pitches. Pivetta appears to be the best option here, unless the Padres decide otherwise against the dangerous Cubs lineup that has been relentless against them this year. Is Jake Cronenworth Worthy of Starting Every Day? In many offensive terms, Jake Cronenworth has not had a more puzzling season than this one. His power had disappeared along with a sudden lack of quality contact. In a way, that can be forgivable in a hitter, and some good at-bats can hide those problems when those hits change the course of games. Cronenworth has never been known as the type of hitter made for clutch moments, but when his swing is right and he does not chase too much, he often shows up. He is getting it done these days after a completely quiet first half of the season. In high-leverage situations, Cronenworth has a career 91 wRC+, so it was inevitable to be surprised by his –12 wRC+ in the first part of the season. It’s not that he has been that good in those situations since the All-Star break, but he has a 77 wRC+, his OPS has risen from .259 to .623, and he finally broke out of his puzzling power outage in clutch moments. After dropping from a 119 wRC+ in July to 75 in August, Cronenworth’s swing has produced a 101 mark this September and he is at his best point of the season combining contact and power. He should probably be in the lineup in every postseason game the Friars play, barring a particularly tough matchup. Are Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor ready to overcome the pressure of the postseason? The answer for the Padres could be in the rhythm Cronenworth can maintain, and how much they are willing to risk defensively for Gavin Sheets’ bat. Both Taylor and Harris have been revelations who have brought contact and speed to the lineup. The metrics have Taylor at –2 Fielding Run Value, the same as Cronenworth, while Sheets has –4 and the worst range of the entire Padres' defense this year. Harris has the best numbers among them, but he is still an average fielder. So, the Padres have to decide which formula could work best. If they keep Cronenworth at second base with his range issues to preserve his bat in case he stays hot, the only consolation at this point is that he has been a better contact hitter against left-handed pitchers. The other option is to bring Fernando Tatis Jr. to second base, as they have also experimented with recently, and keep Harris in right field. The other decision would be who remains the starter in left field, but I don’t think there is much discussion at this point considering the way Taylor is playing. With Tatis at second base, the Padres would have one of the best defensive infields we could see in these playoffs, and the all-important defensive equation would be much more fortified. Over the last few weeks, Cronenworth has appeared at every infield position, which seems like a preview of the role he will have. In the postseason, every pitch, every out and every detail counts. So, finding the best initial defensive setup could be the key, and something I love about these Padres is that they have the versatility to make any number of combinations work. View the full article

Clay Holmes has had some bright moments since coming to the Cubs. In a four-start stretch in August, he allowed just one run in 25 innings pitched, racking up outs with ruthless efficiency by keeping it in the park and in front of the team's excellent defense. He didn't strike out many, even in that hot streak, but he also didn't walk many, and he seemed almost home run-proof. No Cubs starter has been better over a similar stretch this year. That memory is pleasant, but it's distant, now. In four starts this month, Holmes has faced the same number of batters (93) that he faced in those previous four, but he's walked 15, instead of 7. He's given up two home runs and struck out just 15. His 8.24 ERA looks bad, but the reality of the situation is worse. He's also allowed two unearned runs, meaning that opponents are scoring more than a run for every three outs Holmes gets. He's utterly lost, at the worst possible time. Plainly, walks are a huge part of the problem. Walking one of every six batters you see is a recipe for disaster. But that's not all that's wrong, at this point. Holmes also isn't missing bats. He's not suddenly giving up tons of hard contact, but between the walks and a few more singles, he's always dealing with traffic. That makes whatever barrels he does run into more damaging. All of this could be happening as a product of dumb luck, really. It's not, though. Holmes has been a different pitcher since joining the Cubs than he was with the Mets, before getting hurt in May and being sidelined until just after the deadline. He's a different guy than he was in 2025, the first year of his transition from reliever to starter. The changes might be the Cubs' doing, or they might be Holmes's own ideas, or they might be him adjusting to and working around lingering issues from the broken leg that shelved him. Whatever the reasons, though, the effects of those changes have been catastrophic. First, there's the arm angle thing. Holmes's sinker is a remarkably heavy pitch, but the thing that's always made it especially deceptive is his high arm slot. Most sinkerballers throw from a lower arm angle than guys who rely on four-seam fastballs. Among hurlers who have thrown at least 250 sinkers in either of the last two seasons, the median arm angle on that pitch is just under 34°. Holmes's 43° angle last season put him in the 81st percentile for sinker arm angle, and that sample includes plenty of guys whose "sinkers" are really run-over-sink two-seamers. This year, though, his arm angle on sinkers is 38.5°. That's only in the 63rd percentile in the aforementioned sample. He's not throwing from an angle as unusual as the one he used to use for the pitch, so it's not stumping hitters as badly as it used to. And that change happened not over the offseason, but between when he last pitched for New York and when he took the bump for Chicago. The lower angle is a problem for the sinker, itself, but there are other problems afoot. Consider the changes in his pitch movement profile, too. Here's what that looked like in 2025: Here's the 2026 version of that same visual: What's changed? The biggest thing is this: Holmes's arsenal no longer has the same vertical disparities and differentials as it had a year ago. He's added a curveball that has considerable depth, but he doesn't have a true cutter anymore—the pitch still thus labeled is really his slider, with the same speed and depth as the one he threw last year—and he's all but abandoned the four-seamer. If the curve worked off the rest of the arsenal in the traditional way, that might not be as big a problem as it's actually been. Instead, Holmes only throws that pitch one way, really. He tries to land it on the outside edge to lefties, backdooring them. That's a neat trick, and he's shown better command of that pitch to that spot than most pitchers can achieve. But it's a standalone offering in that niche. It's not interacting with the rest of his stuff much at all, let alone setting up a vertical stretching of the zone that engenders whiffs. Thus, nothing's working. His four-seamer's getting hit. His cutter's getting hit. And his sinker isn't doing as well as it would need to be, to offset those issues. Not all of Holmes's walks are happening because he's truly wild. In fact, he's having some good battles with hitters lately. Two of the three walks he issued in his last start of the regular season, against the Red Sox, were eight-pitch plate appearances. Those become walks, instead, because Holmes can't get past hitters' lumber. They foul things off until he misses, and then they punish that miss if it's in the zone and they accept a walk if it's not. The Cubs talked to Holmes about changes they hoped to implement for him, before putting him on the mound in their uniform for the first time. Whether his performance over the last two months is purely a result of their influence or something done of his own volition, the results have been mixed. Lately, in fact, they've been lousy. This version of Holmes isn't good enough to merit a start in the Wild Card Series. Arguably, he shouldn't even be in the rotation if the team makes it to longer series beyond that one. He should be confined to shorter bursts and used in select matchups. Ideally, of course, the Cubs would be able to put the ball in his hand with the season on the line. That's why they gave up top prospect Jefferson Rojas to acquire him. Unfortunately, wishing doesn't make it so. Holmes is not himself right now. Some of that might be the Cubs' fault, or it might just be bum luck—a case of a bad outcome despite a good process. Either way, though, the team needs to reckon with reality. If they don't, Holmes might get shelled again, at a moment when that failure costs the club its chance to advance. 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A new wave of young players has arrived in Minnesota. The group is headlined by several well-regarded prospects, and all 10 players featured here are 25 or younger. Emmanuel Rodríguez was the latest to debut, following 2023 first-round pick Walker Jenkins and 2024 first-round pick Kaelen Culpepper to the majors within the last six weeks. The Twins have spent plenty of time discussing what this group could eventually become. “We’ve spent a lot of time during the offseason, this season, talking about what this prospect group means and how much we think they can help us in the future,” Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll said. “We’re starting to see all that come together.” That process has accelerated since last year's trade deadline. After moving several established players, the Twins are transitioning toward a new foundation. These young players will have an opportunity to determine whether Minnesota can turn that transition into another competitive roster. Passing the Torch The Twins have gone through several waves of young talent over the last decade. The previous group included Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Jhoan Duran. Before them came Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sanó, Eddie Rosario and José Berríos. Some of those players became stars. Others never reached their expected ceilings. A few were eventually traded away as the organization attempted to build around the next group. Now, that next group is here. Ranking young players is never an exact science. Injuries, development and opportunity can change everything quickly. But when considering talent, future upside and how each player fits into Minnesota's next potential winning team, here's how these 10 players stack up. 10. RHP Mick Abel Abel's 2026 season was interrupted by arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow, creating some uncertainty heading into next year. He showed flashes of promise in limited opportunities, but the biggest question is what he will look like when he returns. Minnesota still has time to see whether Abel can become a rotation piece or eventually find a different role. For now, the uncertainty surrounding his health puts him at the bottom of this list. 9. RHP Andrew Morris Morris transitioned into a relief role this season and showed why the Twins could have a long-term bullpen piece on their hands. He was effective for much of the season before showing some fatigue down the stretch. That is understandable considering this was his first full season working primarily as a reliever. The Twins should give Morris an opportunity to establish himself as an important part of next year's bullpen. 8. LHP Kendry Rojas Rojas has taken an unusual path this season. He has worked as both a starter and a multi-inning bullpen option, giving Minnesota another interesting young arm to work with. The organization continues to view him as a starting pitcher, but his future may ultimately be in the bullpen. His ability to handle multiple innings makes him particularly intriguing. Whether that eventually translates into a rotation spot or a high-leverage relief role remains one of the more interesting questions surrounding his development. 7. LHP Connor Prielipp Prielipp has already taken a significant step toward establishing himself as a major-league starter. He pitched more than 140 innings between the minors and majors this season, finishing with a 4.87 ERA. That number doesn't completely capture what he accomplished, however, as several of his underlying statistics point toward better results than his surface numbers. The Twins need young starting pitching, and Prielipp has put himself in position to be part of the rotation for multiple seasons. 6. 3B Brooks Lee Lee's development has taken an interesting turn. After spending much of his professional career at shortstop, he has transitioned to third base and become one of the better defenders at the position. That defensive improvement has helped solidify his place on the roster. Offensively, Lee has hit 24 home runs while posting a 105 OPS+. There is still room for more consistency at the plate, but a 25-year-old infielder who can provide power and strong defense has plenty of value. Lee looks increasingly like a player the Twins can build around. 5. OF Luke Keaschall Keaschall's season has been a tale of two halves. After struggling early, he has emerged as one of Minnesota's better offensive players. His bat has given the Twins plenty of reasons to believe he can become an important part of the lineup. The defensive picture is less settled. Keaschall's long-term position remains something the organization will have to determine, but a corner-outfield role could eventually make the most sense. If his offensive production continues, the Twins will find a way to get his bat into the lineup. 4. OF Emmanuel Rodríguez Rodríguez was the last player from this group to make his major-league debut, but he has the type of skill set that could make him one of the most important pieces of the next Twins core. The power stands out immediately. Rodríguez also has the athleticism to play all three outfield positions, giving Minnesota flexibility as the roster develops around him. His path to the majors took longer than some of the other players on this list, but his upside remains considerable. The Twins need impact hitters. Rodríguez has a chance to become one. 3. SS Kaelen Culpepper Culpepper didn't need much time to show why the Twins selected him in the first round in 2024. He demonstrated the ability to impact the game on both sides of the ball before a hamstring injury interrupted his rookie season. His defensive versatility and offensive potential make him one of the more intriguing young players in the organization. More importantly, the Twins still view him as their shortstop of the future. Culpepper should have every opportunity to open next season as Minnesota's starting shortstop. 2. RHP Taj Bradley Bradley emerged as one of the biggest developments of the 2026 season. At the beginning of the year, there were legitimate questions about what his future would look like in Minnesota. By the end of the season, he had established himself as the Twins' top starting pitcher. Bradley also reached several milestones that may have seemed difficult to envision when the season began. Starting pitching is one of the most difficult things to acquire, develop and retain. If Bradley can build on his 2026 performance, Minnesota may have found a legitimate rotation anchor for the next competitive window. 1. OF Walker Jenkins Jenkins gets the top spot because of the combination of talent, age and upside. The former first-round pick has shown over the last week why evaluators have been so excited about his future. There are tools throughout his game that could eventually make him one of the best players on the roster. The Twins don't need Jenkins to become a superstar for the organization to have a successful rebuild. But if Minnesota is going to build a team capable of contending for years, having Jenkins become the player his talent suggests he can be would change the entire ceiling of the roster. He needs to be at the heart of the next great Twins lineup. The Next Twins Core There are no guarantees with young players. Some will develop into stars. Others will settle into complementary roles, become trade pieces or fail to reach the expectations placed upon them. That's the reality of building a roster around young talent. But the Twins have something they didn't have a year ago: a clearer look at the players who could become the foundation of their next contender. Jenkins, Bradley, Culpepper, Rodríguez, Keaschall and Lee give Minnesota a group of young position players with different skill sets. Prielipp, Rojas, Morris and Abel give the pitching staff several more potential pieces. The next step is turning potential into production. If enough of these players reach their ceilings, the Twins could have the foundation of another competitive roster. The organization will spend the next few seasons finding out exactly what this group can become. How would you rank Minnesota's under-25 players? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Brice Turang struggled to find his footing during Milwaukee’s postseason run last year, but he enters this October playing some of his best baseball of the season. Can he give Milwaukee more when it matters most this time around? View the full article

During their historic streak that changed the season between July 3 and August 7, the Boston Red Sox played to a 27-3 record and scored 180 runs, averaging six per game. The great comeback began when the Red Sox were playing to a 37-48 record and ended at 64-51, 13 games over .500. In just 36 days, the season took a complete turn and, from then on, the organization began thinking about the postseason. However, they have reached the end of the regular season in a very different situation. In their first 21 games of September, they have averaged 3.0 runs per game, half of what they achieved during that historic winning streak. Let’s explore here some of the most alarming trends the Red Sox offense is leaving us with at this end of the second half of the season. Wilyer Abreu Has Stopped Pulling the Ball In September Wilyer Abreu continues to make a difference as one of the Red Sox’s key hitters, especially during this second half, with a 122 wRC+ after recording a 109 mark in the first. His profile remains consistent against both sides, with a 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 vs RHP, but where he has stood out the most is in pressure situations, recording a 113 wRC+ with RISP and a 123 wRC+ in high-leverage situations. Abreu has found company in Caleb Durbin, another one of the bats that has responded best during this stretch, while Willson Contreras, the main man of the offense, has missed time on the injured list. However, the right fielder has fallen off this September, although the sample is still not enough to consider it concerning. After an August in which he hit .279/.384/.587 with seven home runs, his production fell to .225/.304/.352 this month, with just one home run on his ledger. The drop also appears in the quality of his contact, as his hard-hit rate went from 49.4% in August to 39.6% now. Abreu is seeing more pitches that prevent him from unleashing his ability to pull the ball, to the point that his Pull% fell from 43.5% to 26.4%. That may be the worst trend entering the postseason, as he's at his absolute best when slugging balls to right field. Adley Rutschman Is Failing Against Lefties and In the Clutch We know the great complement that Rutschman provides with his talent, bringing an elite bat and good defense at his best. But the backstop, even before arriving at the Red Sox at the trade deadline, was already going through many offensive problems. Right now, he is the clearest case of a devastating offensive decline. His wRC+ went from 115 in the first half of the season to 79 after the All-Star break, but the strongest signal is in his marked problems against lefties, against whom he has recorded a -21 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances (.139/.139/.194) in this second half of the season. Rutschman improves when he bats from the left side, and the hope is that he continues hitting righties as he has done in general, producing a 121 wRC+. But his problems at the plate do not end here, as he has not fulfilled his offensive role at least with the expectations the Red Sox had in the moments that define games. In high-leverage situations, he has collapsed to a -80 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances during this second half of the season, with a .067/.067/.067 slash line. The sample is small, but it could carry a lot of weight in a tense three-game Wild Card Series. Roman Anthony Has Gotten Too Aggressive The clearest signal in Roman Anthony's struggles is against lefties, precisely one of his strengths last year, when he averaged a solid .438 BABIP and 113 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. In the second half this year, he has a 42 wRC+ in 39 PAs, to go along with a .189/.231/.297 slash line, .235 wOBA and .207 BABIP. The story changes against righties, with a 133 wRC+ and .366 wOBA. The difference is enormous. As you can see in this graph, since his return at the end of August, Anthony has had a high rate of swings and misses in the outside area, especially chasing pitches in several parts outside the strike zone. At the most important moment of the season, Anthony will need to show incredible maturity to rein in his aggressiveness at the plate. Can Jarren Duran Improve On Last Year's Postseason Slump? With the unfortunate injury to Mickey Gasper, Duran’s role could be more important than perhaps expected heading into October. His second half has been better than the first, but his recovery has been far from productive in the situations of greatest pressure. He had just 35 wRC+ in 27 high-leverage plate appearances, with a .130/.259/.304 slash, and could be considered the worst hitter on the team after recording a 60 wRC+ in 68 PAs with RISP during the second half of the season. In whatever role Boston plans for Duran as a starter, he will have to change that recent history. What seems a little contradictory is that Duran’s problem has not been against lefties, against whom he has averaged a 99 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Surprised? Well, yes, it has been the righties who have limited his swing to just a 71 wRC+ and an offensive line of .214/.279/.321. Duran will need to draw on his experience for this moment, as he entered last season's postseason run in a similar state of decline. What was the result? He finished 1-for-11 with four strikeouts and no walks against the pitching of the New York Yankees in the Red Sox’s loss in the Wild Card Series. View the full article

Known as Pro Player Stadium for a longer stretch of the Florida Marlins’ time at their original ballpark than by any other name, the club’s biggest home win at the original stadium came in walk-off fashion. The same was true for its final win there, which came on this day 15 years ago. In the next-to-last game of the season and next-to-last game at what was then Sun Life Stadium, Bryan Petersen was the unlikely hero on Sept. 27, 2011. His walk-off home run gave the Marlins their final home win at what was originally Joe Robbie Stadium and over the Washington Nationals, 3-2. With the score tied 2-2, the Marlins came to bat against Washington’s Doug Slaten in the bottom of the ninth. Slaten was able to get two quick outs, striking out Logan Morrison on three pitches before getting John Buck to fly out to center. With Petersen 0-for-2 with a strikeout to that point, extra innings seemed like an inevitability. Before anyone could blink, Petersen sent the crowd home happy for the final time. Petersen turned on the first pitch he saw from Slaten – a fastball left over the middle of the plate. Faster than it arrived, Petersen’s shot left. His blast was a no-doubter well into the right-field stands, giving Florida the victory. Prior to the walk-off bomb, the Marlins hadn’t led since the fourth inning when Emilio Bonifácio’s sacrifice fly plated Matt Dominguez. On the first pitch of the fifth, Mike Morse drew Washington even with a solo shot off Florida starter Javier Vázquez. After Ian Desmond singled home the go-ahead run for the Nationals in the top of the sixth, Bonifácio scored the tying run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the frame. While John Lannan gave the Nationals a quality start, Vázquez ended up going the distance for Florida, striking out nine. Lead-off men and shortstops Bonifácio and Desmond each had two of the five hits for their respective teams. Just 25 years old at the time, Petersen spent three seasons in the big leagues – all with the Marlins – and recorded just two career home runs. His last, however, will forever have the distinction of delivering the club its final win in its original stadium. It came on this day 15 years ago. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins were flying high coming off the 2023 season, but a demoralizing collapse in 2024 followed by a roundly disappointing 2025 erased their momentum and tanked fan morale. Attendance reached its lowest point in 25 years. When Tom Pohlad took over last offseason as the new face of ownership, he acknowledged the state of affairs and the core imperative: they needed to win back confidence. They needed to put a better and more inspiring product on the field. "It’s undeniable," Pohlad said, "that we haven’t won enough baseball games, the financial health of the club has been put in jeopardy, and we’ve got a fan base that has lost trust in us as owners — and, as a result, this organization and the direction it’s headed." No one was suggesting a 90-win campaign. The reality of this team's situation coming off a historic deadline firesale was plain to see. Pohlad, to his credit, was measured in his level-setting for the 2026 season. "We really like our team," he shared at the start of spring training. "We think we’ve got a good mix of veterans and really talented young people that want to make a statement. I think we’re going to exceed expectations.” That was a low bar. General expectations for the Twins were tempered to say the least, coming off 90 losses and carrying one of the league's skimpiest payrolls. The over/under in Vegas coming into this season was 72 to 73 wins (which Pohlad called "ridiculous"), whereas projection systems like FanGraphs viewed the team's outlook somewhat more favorably, pegging them in the 77-win range. With one game left, the Twins sit at 76 wins. They've already won money for the over bettors and it looks like they are going to nail their projection forecasts to a tee. I guess that's something to celebrate? It calls to mind a classic Calvin and Hobbes comic panel from the great Bill Watterson. Conversing with Calvin over the construction of a snowman, Hobbes ponders: “So the secret to good self-esteem is to lower your expectations to the point where they’re already met?” “Right,” Calvin responds. “We should take pride in our mediocrity.” Taking pride in mediocrity feels like a good way to synopsize any good vibes that this losing season might elicit. There's no better way to describe this 2026 Twins team than mediocre: okay, passable, neither very good nor very bad. They avoided elimination until the last week of September, but were above .500 for 13 days all season, and hung around on the fringe of contention only due to the sorry state of the American League at large. But hey, perception matters. This year's Twins team played almost in lockstep with last year's in the first half, hovering just below .500 for most of July before taking very different paths at the trade deadline. The contrast was twofold: In 2025, Detroit was running away with the Central, and being five games below .500 was not enough to put you in the Wild Card conversation. In 2025, the Twins were playing this mediocre brand of baseball with a roster that was at least co-favored to win the division, and with Carlos Correa being paid $35 million. Some view the latter as a bad thing. I get it. It's more frustrating to watch a good team lose. And it leads to more rancor: players grumbling, media melting down, "sell the team" chants erupting. Relatively speaking, there's been very little of that this year, because people know the deal. For me, I like to have some skin in the game. I like to feel the sweat, to revel in the dramatics. My sweat was never beading up in this 2026 season, even as the AL field did its best to keep things interesting. I was convinced from the outset this was going to be a bad team and it was indeed a bad team, albeit somewhat less bad than I feared. So, did the Twins surpass expectations? In my view yes, at least in terms of wins and losses, but only because mine were so low to begin with. And that very fact is why I struggled to ever feel truly engaged with this season. I never believed in the capability and potential of this team like I did in 2024 before the collapse, or in 2025's first half to a lesser degree. This team never won 12 or 13 straight games; it never won more than four straight. Not a single player had a truly star-caliber season. In that regard, the Twins didn't surpass my expectations at all. They were exactly what I expected. But at least they are giving me reason to expect more next year. Because, everything else aside, this team did finish on a much different note than the last two. Instead of watching a collection of disgruntled veterans play out the string, Twins fans got a September introduction to players who might actually be central to where this thing goes next. Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and Emmanuel Rodriguez weren't just prospects looming somewhere off in the distance anymore. They were here, getting meaningful exposure to the majors and giving us a glimpse of what a younger, more dynamic Twins lineup could look like. On the pitching side, Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp put the finishing touches on breakthrough seasons that established them as legitimate rotation fixtures. There are plenty of holes left to fill and questions left to answer, but the Twins will enter this offseason with a clearer picture of their young core than they had a year ago. Maybe that's the most meaningful way this team exceeded expectations. The 2026 Twins weren't particularly good, and they never gave us much reason to believe they would become good. But by the end, they gave us a few more reasons to believe what comes next might (finally) be different. I'd love to hear your thoughts. Did this team exceed your expectations? And where does this finish leave your expectations looking ahead to 2027? View the full article

The unthinkable has become a reality. The San Diego Padres will be hosting the first round of the MLB postseason at Petco Park. That came to fruition as the Padres beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-7 Saturday, clinching the No. 1 NL wild card. The Padres, who wrapped up a playoff berth Thursday vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers, will face the Chicago Cubs in the best-of-three NL Wild Card Series, which will be Tuesday, Wednesday and, if necessary, Thursday at Petco Park. The winner of the Padres-Cubs series will face the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the best record in MLB at 102-59. The Padres and Cubs met in last's NL Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field, with Chicago winning in three games. The D'backs will still have something to play for Sunday as they are one game behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL wild-card spot, with Arizona holding the tiebreaker. Whichever team gets that spot will face NL East champion Atlanta in the other NL Wild Card Series. View the full article

Box Score SP: Bailey Ober 5.0 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (86 pitches, 53 strikes (62%)) Home Runs: N/A Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-0.35), Royce Lewis (-0.09), Walker Jenkins (-0.06) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Bailey Ober started his last game of the season, and while his value can't be overstated, his future still is murky after a season of lower velocity and mixed results. With the Rangers needing to win in order to stay in the running for their division crown, they counted Nathan Eovaldi in hopes of accomplishing just that. After a laugher went the home team's way Friday night, could the Twins keep ruining the Rangers party planning? Keaschall Rakes, But Ober Breaks Luke Keaschall has claimed the leadoff spot and run wild with it. Tonight was no different, as he launched a double to kick-off the Twins offense yet again, and he scampered home on Kody Clemens' groundout, which notched Clemens' 80th RBI of the season. With a quick start and an early 1-0 lead, the Twins handed Ober a great chance to keep the good times rolling. Unfortunately, after Ober retired the first two men in the top of the second the wheels completely went off the rails. Nicky Lopez doubled, and then Danny Jansen worked a single out of a full count to knot the game up at one apiece. Then Ober and his 88 mph fastball and center-cut changeups gave up three straight doubles. After an inning of batting practice quality pitching, the Twins were now down 4-1. Twins Stay Down, While Rangers Take Flight The Twins got a walk from Keaschall and a double from Brooks Lee to put Eovaldi on the ropes in the bottom of the third. Clemens thought he had RBIs 81 and 82, but Brandon Nimmo robbed the potential extra-base hit and the threat went by the wayside. The Rangers immediately took that momentum and ran with it in the form of a Danny Jansen homer to start the fourth to make it 5-1. The top of the fifth saw another long ball from Texas, this time with Jake Burger taking advantage of Ober's slow fastball. Keaschall had runners at the corners with one out in the bottom of the fifth, but proved he was human with a double-play grounder to short. He proved himself superhuman with a leadoff triple in the eighth and came around to score the Twins second run of the game. But Luke can only do so much on his own, and the rest of the Twins couldn't mount a consistent effort against a desperate Rangers team. This 6-2 loss looked a lot like the other 84 losses so far this season. There is hope for next year, but if that hope doesn't get some help its going to be more of the same in Twins Territory. Did we see the last pitch from Taylor Rogers at Target Field tonight? Will outings like tonight help Travis Adams and Yoendrys Gomez maintain some presence in the bullpen mix in 2027? Only time will tell. Let's hope we aren't waiting until June or July to find out. What’s Next? The Twins finish their season with a Sunday matinee that hopefully will have playoff implications still in the mix (after the Astros and A's game Saturday night). Twins righty Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.97 ERA) looks to make a last impression in his final outing. The Rangers have all hands on deck in hopes of securing the playoffs, with their announced starter likely waiting for the result of Astros/A's. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm CDT either way. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Morris 19 23 0 0 0 42 Adams 0 0 0 0 40 40 Gomez 0 24 0 0 9 33 Funderburk 13 0 0 19 0 32 Rogers 0 0 0 8 14 22 Minter 9 7 0 0 0 16 Nance 0 0 0 11 0 11 View the full article

MIAMI — "Too small." "No power." "Utility player." Javier Sanoja has heard it all. Overlooked and undervalued as a prospect, there continued to be skepticism about Sanoja's ceiling coming off a solid rookie season in 2025. He has responded with easily the best stretch of his young career during the latter half of this season, providing value in ways that few thought possible. Sanoja went yard for the eleventh time on Saturday afternoon in Miami's 8-3 loss to the visiting Braves. Five of those have come since the calendar flipped to September. To put his spike of thump into perspective, Sanoja never homered more than seven times in any of his minor league seasons. In his first 111 games as a big leaguer between 2024 and 2025, he tallied seven. "Another ball they got elevating the zone and he put a great swing on it," said Marlins manager Clayton McCullough postgame. "it was definitely improved physicality from last year to this year. He is really, really locked in on what he's firing at, particularly in early counts. His timing and his bat path is as good a place as they they've been for two years, and then also the improved decision-making early in counts, it's a big reason why the production rate came in such a positive way." Since returning from the All-Star break, Sanoja's numbers are gaudy. A .320/.357/.507 slash line with 25 extra-base hits has flipped what was a solid second full season into a great one. In addition to the newfound pop, his 24-game on-base streak is the longest for a Miami Marlin since Jon Berti in 2022. Also, Sanoja's trademark glove has maintained its pedigree after earning the utility National League Gold Glove a year ago. Taking on a growing role at third base, Sanoja's advanced defensive metrics have remained outstanding. A plus-5 Defensive Runs Saved and plus-6 Outs Above Average place "El Chiquito" in elite company amongst those at the hot corner. Perhaps most exciting about Sanoja is how much more time he has to get even better. Weeks removed from his 24th birthday, Sanoja ranks second on the team in bWAR behind only Otto López. After making an unplanned transition into an everyday player this season, he's made a compelling case to be a staple of the Marlins lineup moving forward. "He just keeps getting better," added McCullough. "And we're still seeing a very young player that is improving at the major league level in all factors...He's more than just a little player that can kind of move around." Miami's season finale in 2026 comes your way at 3:10 pm on Sunday afternoon. Janson Junk takes the ball for McCullough in Game 162. View the full article

For the first time in Milwaukee Brewers history, they have a team captain. The Brewers on Saturday announced that Christian Yelich would be their captain and wear a C on the front of his uniform. Since joining the Brewers via a trade from the Miami Marlins before the 2018 season, the 34-year-old has produced on and off the field. Early on, it was a lot on the field, becoming the fourth player (fifth time) in Brewers history to win an MVP, taking the NL honor in his debut season with the Crew. Yelich followed that up with a better 2019, but a fractured kneecap in August sidelined him for the remainder of the season. That would be the first of a handful of injuries, mainly dealing with his back, that Yelich dealt with, with his offensive production not necessarily matching the nine-year, $215 million contract he signed in 2020. But he made up for whatever downswing in his stats with his leadership. Yelich has been a three-time All-Star with the Brewers, a three-time NL Silver Slugger and a two-time NL batting champion during his nine seasons in Milwaukee. He won an NL Gold Glove with the Marlins. The announcement was made to the team during a meeting before Saturday's game against the St. Louis Cardinals. Yelich also made sure to have the approval of Brewers legend Robin Yount, the Hall of Famer and two-time AL MVP. View the full article

Following his latest struggles and postgame admission, the San Diego Padres are giving Casey Mize some time to get right. The right-handed starter was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a sprained right ankle. In a big piece of good news, first baseman Gavin Sheets was activated off the 10-day IL and right-hander Griffin Canning was called up from the Arizona Complex League. Also, left-hander Kyle Hart was optioned to the ACL. Meanwhile, right-hander Alek Jacob, who was designated for assignment three days ago, cleared waivers and was outrighted to the ACL. Mize gave up seven runs in four innings during Friday's 11-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. He originally injured the ankle as he returned to the Padres' dugout after the second inning of his Aug. 22 start vs. the Minnesota Twins. He stumbled down the dugout stairs, but came out for the third inning, lasting only two more outs. Since then, Mize has surrendered 28 runs (23 earned) over 26⅔ innings. He said after Friday's game that the right ankle was still sore and affecting his mechanics. Mize, who has a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts since being acquired from the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 3, will be ineligible for the NL Wild Card Series and, if the Padres advance, the NL Division Series. Sheets is back after dealing with plantar fasciitis. He is hitting fifth for Saturday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He went on the 10-day IL on Aug. 30, but has been working out recently at the Padres' complex in Peoria, Ariz. He is likely to have a bench role during the initial stages of the postseason. He has a .211/.313/.388 slash line with 16 homers and 46 RBIs in 123 games. Canning, who has been effective out of the bullpen, had been optioned to the ACL two days ago and was able to come back up so quickly due to Mize going on the IL. Hart's move is likely just to give him rest before the postseason. The Padres can clinch the No. 1 NL wild-card seed with a win in either of their last two games. View the full article

On Friday night, the Kansas City Royals acknowledged and celebrated the award winners in their Minor League system. That included not just players but also scouts and coaches. Overall, the Royals' farm system showed progress this season. Even though the system still isn't highly ranked, many prospects took positive steps forward this year, a sign the development and scouting team is improving under Royals President of Baseball Operations JJ Picollo. Six of those success stories were present and recognized on Friday night at Kauffman Stadium. In this post, I'll break down the four position-player prospects who earned awards from the Royals organization for their strong seasons, and what Royals fans can expect from them in 2027 and beyond. Willie Wilson Baserunner of the Year: Abel Gonzalez, OF, Quad Cities Gonzalez won his second Willie Wilson Baserunner of the Year Award, as he won the honor a year ago with the Columbia Fireflies. The 20-year-old stole 67 bases with an 84% success rate and also scored 91 runs with the River Bandits this year. In addition to being an excellent baserunner, Gonzalez is a solid center fielder. He made only three errors this year and is known for his strong range and ability to cover the outfield gaps. At a minimum, he has shown the speed and fielding tools to succeed at the Major League level. The big question for Gonzalez going forward is the bat. Gonzalez hit .262 with a .672 OPS and did have a 10.2% BB%. However, he struck out 25.4% and showed contact concerns this past year, as evidenced by a 78% Z-Contact%, which ranked in the 29th percentile. Scouts have been optimistic that Gonzalez can grow into his power, and he did hit two more home runs than a year ago. That said, he hit only one last year, and his .052 ISO was just one point higher than his 2025 ISO in Columbia. At 20, Gonzalez still has time to develop, and the tools and talent are there to become a big-league regular. The swing is a bit ugly-looking, though I wonder if that's partly due to his tall frame and long limbs. Gonzalez will matriculate to Double-A next year, and how his contact skills and power fare in the Texas League will determine whether the Royals should take him seriously as a prospect. Frank White Defensive Player of the Year: Carson Roccaforte, OF, Northwest Arkansas/Omaha Roccaforte is clearly the best defensive player in the Royals organization. He won the Frank White Award for a third straight season. Roccaforte is clearly good enough to be a late-innings outfielder for the Royals right now, even with Kyle Isbel and Tyler Tolbert on the active roster. While Roccaforte's defense was once again stellar, his offense in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this year caught the attention of Royals fans. In 622 combined plate appearances with the Naturals and Storm Chasers, Roccaforte hit .257 with a .857 OPS. That included 35 home runs and 32 stolen bases. The former Louisiana-Lafayette product not only posted slugging marks of .500 or more in both Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, but also had a hard-hit rate in the 78th percentile, a LA Sweet-Spot% in the 94th percentile, and a Pull Air% in the 100th percentile. Roccaforte impressed fans all year long with majestic bombs, including this one in Springfield, shortly before his promotion to Omaha. Roccaforte is a candidate to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, and Mike Gillespie on here broke down that possibility in a recent post. That said, his situation isn't easy. While he can handle the Majors defensively and is a strong (though not elite) baserunner, his contact ability is a huge red flag. In Omaha, he had a K% in the 8th percentile and a whiff% in the 4th percentile. Furthermore, Roccaforte amplified those numbers with a poor O-Swing%, as it ranked in the 23rd percentile. There's no question that Roccaforte can do damage when he connects with the ball. But will he make enough contact at the Major League level? That concern likely explains why he hasn't been promoted, even with the Royals having a down year. Kansas City will likely add Roccaforte to the 40-man roster this offseason. However, the opportunity he gets in 2027 will likely depend on how his contact and plate discipline develop and fare in Spring Training. Alex Gordon Heart and Hustle Award: Josh Hammond, SS, Columbia Hammond is our No. 3 prospect at Royals Keep, behind pitchers Kendry Chourio and David Shields. Even though 2026 was his first professional season and he was 19 years old, Hammond held his own in Low-A Columbia. In 110 games and 487 plate appearances, Hammond hit .286 with a .743 OPS. He also hit five home runs, stole 25 bases on 30 attempts, and scored 69 runs. His power stagnated a bit over the season, suggesting Hammond may have been fatigued in his first exposure to pro ball. That said, he continued to provide stellar defense, baserunning, and contact ability with the Fireflies, which is why he earned the Alex Gordon Award. Hammond has been a riser among many Royals prospect experts, and MLB Pipeline ranks him No. 67 on its Top-100 list. While he isn't a flashy tools guy, he's incredibly polished and mature for his age, and he's the kind of player who can lead a team in all areas of the game. It seemed like he focused more on hitting for average this year, opting for line drives to all fields rather than trying to sit on balls to pull for home runs (his Pull Air% ranked in the 24th percentile). Once he gets strong and he gets more comfortable at the plate, it wouldn't be surprising to see him as a 20+ HR threat. His raw power is a 40 grade now, but TJ Stats gives him 55 potential (ranking him No. 81 overall). He is still at least a couple of years away from making his MLB debut. However, Hammond showed strong progress in 2026 and could really break out in 2027, especially if the power tool clicks in High-A ball. George Brett Hitter of the Year and Mike Sweeney Award Winner: Brett Squires, 1B/OF, Northwest Arkansas and Omaha Squires won two awards: the George Brett Award, which goes to the best hitter in the Royals farm system, and the Mike Sweeney Award, which goes to the player who did the most community service in the Royals' organization. To be honest, no hitter was more deserving than Squires, who absolutely mashed with the Naturals and Storm Chasers this season. In 555 plate appearances between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha, Squires hit .277 with a .900 OPS. He launched 31 home runs, drove in 103 runs, stole 24 bases on 25 attempts, and scored 78 runs. In Omaha (more detailed Statcast percentiles), he ranked in the 77th percentile in Pull Air%, the 82nd percentile in wOBA, the 93rd percentile in Barrel%, the 79th percentile in Hard Hit%, and the 84th percentile in 90th EV. In terms of contact quality, few hitters in the Royals' farm system were better than Squires this year. That said, like Roccaforte, Squires' issue is MAKING contact. His whiff% ranked in the 4th percentile, his K% in the 20th percentile, his BB% in the 24th percentile, and his O-Swing% in the 20th percentile. This kind of approach can work against lackluster pitching in Triple-A. Against MLB hitters? It can be less successful, as CJ Alexander and Drew Waters have demonstrated in the past. Another problem is that nearly all of Squires' value is tied to his bat. If he's not hitting, he'll be a negative-value player on the roster. That likely explains why he hasn't gotten a shot this year, even though the Royals' offense could've used his bat at various points in the season. The Squires will be Rule 5 Draft-eligible this offseason, so it'll be interesting to see whether the Royals add him to the 40-man roster to protect him. If he goes unprotected, he would likely be selected if the Rule 5 Draft happens (it could be canceled due to a likely work stoppage). However, Squires doesn't have a clear spot on the roster, especially with Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez at first base and Jac Caglianone in right field. View the full article

That the San Diego Padres spent much of the first half of 2026 trapped in such dire offensive straits is sort of a mystery given how the team was assembled on paper. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill are excellent headliners; Xander Bogaerts & Jake Cronenworth are capable secondary bats (albeit on increasingly tough-to-explain long-term deals); Gavin Sheets, Ty France, and Ramón Laureano are all tertiary threats. That's a group that, in theory, should have led the team out of the gate. Yet, the Padres spent almost all of the first half of the season stagnant on offense. Even as the team got off to a decent start and was in first place in the National League West in the middle of April, they finished the month well into the bottom half of the league in terms of their offensive production. That was nothing compared to the woeful output that awaited them in May. That month, the Padres were a bottom-three team in all of Major League Baseball in their fWAR accrued by position players (exactly 0.0). By wRC+, a purely offensive metric, they sat at 74 which indicated the collective as a well-below average unit ahead of only Colorado & Detroit. They hit just .200 for the month (30th), reached base at a .276 clip (also 30th), and were slugging .340 (29th). That absence of production came alongside a 24.5 percent strikeout rate that was the third-highest in the sport. All told, the Padres spent the first half as one of the league's worst offensive teams. Their statistical output ranked as follows: Runs (379): 30th Batting Average (.226): 30th On-Base Percentage (.302): 30th Slugging Percentage (.370): 29th K% (22.8): 20th BB (9.1): 13th ISO (.144): 25th wRC+ (90): 28th Even with strikeout and walk rates closer to the middle of the pack, there was simply no production to speak of. And no one player was immune to it. Only two players—Tatis & France—were above the average threshold by wRC+ in the first half at 102 & 124, respectively. Most notable among the disappointments was Merrill and his wRC+ of 76. As the trade deadline grew closer, though, the Padres started to find their groove. Tatis has been one of the best players in baseball over the last couple of month, Merrill has sorted himself, and France has sustained his surprising production. That's left the Padres looking like this in the second half: Runs (324): 3rd Batting Average (.268): 1st On-Base Percentage (.340): 3rd Slugging Percentage (.435): 2nd K% (19.9): 6th BB% (9.0): 11th ISO (.167): 6th wRC+ (118): 2nd It's not just that the Padres have been better in the second half of the year. They've been, outright, one of the best offensive teams in baseball. Tatis' reemergence as a superstar has been a driver of that turnaround, to be sure. But it's not on his shoulders alone. France has been even better. Merrill is carrying a 155 wRC+. Each of Machado & Bogaerts have managed to scratch and claw toward positive production. Even Jake Cronenworth has heated up over the last week. The output is coming from everywhere. While it's not only the offense that has taken the Padres from potential sellers to playoff entrants, it has been the offense serving as the leader of the hottest stretch of play we've seen from them all season. Given the questions that still persist in the rotation and the overworked state of the bullpen, that will have to continue into October in order for the Friars to make a deep run. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins will have one of their most important bullpen pieces unavailable for the final two games of the season, but they are getting a key piece of their future back on Saturday. The Twins activated shortstop Kaelen Culpepper from the injured list Saturday while placing veteran reliever Jeff Hoffman on the 15-day injured list with right forearm inflammation. Minnesota acquired Hoffman from the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of the August 3rd Trade Deadline, hoping the 2024 All-Star could provide another reliable option in the late innings. He has done exactly that since arriving, posting a 2.50 ERA with 27 strikeouts across 18 innings for the Twins. Hoffman last pitched Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants, earning his first save with Minnesota in a 3-2 victory. The right-hander allowed one run while walking two and hitting a batter in his lone inning of work. It was an unusual blemish for a pitcher who had not allowed a run in his previous 11 appearances, covering 9 1/3 innings. Now, Hoffman will have to watch the final two games from the sidelines. His absence leaves the Twins without one of their most dependable bullpen arms, but the timing also gives the organization a chance to get Culpepper back on the field. The 23-year-old shortstop landed on the 10-day IL after suffering a mild left hamstring strain against the New York Yankees. Culpepper tweaked the hamstring in the sixth inning while running out a ground ball, with an MRI the following morning confirming the strain. Minnesota recalled infielder Ben Ross from Triple-A St. Paul when Culpepper went on the IL. Culpepper has given the Twins plenty of reasons to want an extended look at him. He has hit .275/.333/.404 across 31 games, with three home runs, five doubles and 11 RBIs. While the offensive numbers are still developing, his defensive work at shortstop has been particularly encouraging. Culpepper has looked comfortable at a premium position and has graded out as an above-average defender up the middle. That matters as the Twins continue looking toward a younger core for 2027 and beyond. There isn't much left to accomplish in the standings for Minnesota, but these final games still provide an opportunity to evaluate pieces of the roster. Hoffman won't be part of that evaluation because of his forearm issue, but Culpepper will. And after spending nearly two weeks on the injured list, getting Culpepper back on the field for the final weekend gives the Twins one more opportunity to see what they have in a player who could be an important part of their next roster. View the full article

As the Minnesota Twins look toward next season, their bullpen is beginning to present more questions than answers. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez both have shown stretches of great play this season, but their recent struggles have raised concerns about whether the Twins can rely on either pitcher for a significant bullpen role in 2027. Those struggles could influence how aggressively the Twins look to add to the bullpen, whether through free agency or the trade market. The bullpen was a topic of conversation for much of the past offseason. The Twins didn’t spend a lot to make it significantly better, adding only veteran Taylor Rogers on a major-league deal. The bullpen was still lacking at the deadline, which led to the acquisitions of Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter. While Hoffman will be back, relief pitching remains a topic of conversation heading into 2027 for a team that carries forward strong starting pitching depth and a relatively well-set position player group. On the relief side, the biggest question will be whether the Twins can count on Morris and Gómez in higher leverage roles, and those questions are extremely valid. Morris, a fourth-round pick by the Twins in 2022, made his debut earlier this season and pitched well up until the end of July, earning a 3.12 ERA (2.92 FIP) in 52 innings over that span. He stuck out 23.4% of the batters he faced while walking 7.3% of batters. Those numbers have flipped since the calendar turned to August, as Morris has a 6.97 ERA (3.68 FIP) in 20 ⅔ innings since then. The 25-year-old has a diminished strikeout rate, 17.3%, and a heightened walk rate, 11.2%, during this period. Morris’ strong point is his fastball, worth 9 runs so far this year. However, his breaking and off-speed pitches have both been bad, worth -1 and -2 run respectively, so that will be something that needs to be addressed to turn around his performance. Gómez, on the other hand, was not good for the Rays, pitching to a 6.23 ERA (7.25 FIP) in 17 ⅓ innings before being designated for assignment. The Twins acquired him for cash considerations on May 7th, and from that day until the end of July, Gómez was arguably the best reliever in the Twins bullpen, emerging as the primary closer. He posted a 1.67 ERA (3.09 FIP) in 32 ⅓ innings, converting every save attempt. The 26-year-old was striking out 24.1% of the batters he faced, which is encouraging but a walk rate of 11.3% allowed for a lot of baserunners in the middle months of the season. Since August 1st, his ERA rocketed up to 7.71 (4.14 FIP). Gómez is still striking out a ton of batters as his strikeout rate remained the same. However, he was already issuing a lot of free passes, and his walk rate has climbed significantly, up to 17.7%, leading to him being demoted the bullpen pecking order. A key weakness of Gómez’s arsenal, unlike Morris, is his fastball; it is currently worth -4 runs and his most used pitch, with opposing hitters slugging .450 off it this season. With both Gómez and Morris struggling to maintain their earlier success, the Twins may have to reconsider where the two fit into their bullpen hierarchy going forward. How much should the Twins let these last two months impact their bullpen planning? For starters, it should mean bumping these two down the hierarchy of relievers, at least for the start of the 2027 season. Both players have shined at points, but their inconsistencies down the stretch can’t go unnoticed. Hoffman should be the bullpen’s highest-leverage arm in 2027, and with the pending departures of Minter and Rogers the Twins should add at least one high-end arm via free agency. David Bednar, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Bryan Abreu could be right-handed options the Twins look to sign, especially Abreu, given their rumored interest at the trade deadline. If the Twins are looking to replace the left-handedness lost in Rogers and Minter specifically, they could take a look at old friend Steven Okert, Gregory Soto, or Brock Burke. Of course, at that point they could also just resign Minter. He has been very solid for the Twins, putting together a 2.49 ERA (4.39 FIP) in 21 ⅔ innings for Minnesota so far. While it's smart to ratchet down their role leverage, Morris and Gómez can absolutely be important pieces of the Twins in 2027. What matters is what version of these players are going to show up. For Morris, the Twins will need to see if he can find a more reliable secondary pitch. For Gómez, the biggest focus will be limiting the free passes and figuring out how to get more out of his fastball, which has been a challenge for him in previous stops. There's a reason he's already pitched for five different teams in the majors at age 26. Neither pitcher should be written off because of two difficult months, especially considering how effective they were beforehand. However, the Twins cannot enter 2027 assuming that either Morris or Gómez will automatically return to viability is a closer or setup man. If both can make necessary adjustments, they could give the Twins two important internal, late-inning options for the bullpen. Regardless, Minnesota will need to make an addition or two this offseason to prevent the bullpen from persisting as the question mark it has been since the 2025 trade deadline. View the full article

Ian Happ and Tyrone Taylor have very different offensive splits, but their strengths could complement each other perfectly. The Cubs may have an ideal left-field platoon for October. View the full article

Kody Clemens has put together the best offensive season of his career, but his defense at second base has been a different story. Could a position swap with Royce Lewis help the Twins get the most out of both players? View the full article

The San Diego Padres are officially in the postseason! Randy Holt and Steve Drumwright were popping bottles as they reviewed the week that led to the Friars earning a spot in the playoffs for a franchise-record third consecutive year, the journey the Padres took to get to this point and then discussed some of the key issues they face before the postseason, including who will be in the rotation and who will make the roster. The only thing left on the Padres' checklist entering this weekend's series against the Arizona Diamondbacks is what seed they will have. Randy and Steve discuss those scenarios, including the very real possibility that Petco Park will host a Wild Card Series next week. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/padres-mission-podcast/id1896922834 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033xclmydmbLmEp0exYuYz Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/1333-padres-mission-podcast-336930560 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@padresmission View the full article

The guys recap the Brewers' first 100-win season, how Dustin May and Shane Drohan will factor into the playoff pitching plans, and more. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View the full article

As banged up and inconsistent as the Twins’ starting rotation was throughout the 2026 season, plenty of reasons remain for optimism as we turn the page toward 2027. Joe Ryan and Pablo López should both be back in the rotation next season, and assuming both are healthy, that gives the Twins a strong foundation at the top. Taj Bradley also just racked up 205 strikeouts this season, making him one of just 11 pitchers across Major League Baseball to reach that mark. He figures to be a very strong No. 3 option moving forward. Then there’s Mick Abel, Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews, all of whom have flashed at different points and could emerge as quality starting options during the 2027 season. Finally, there’s Dean Kremer and Bailey Ober. Or, perhaps more accurately, Dean Kremer or Bailey Ober. The two pitchers are in very similar positions heading into the offseason. Both will be in their final year of team control in 2027, and both figure to be back-end rotation options at similar prices. The two are scheduled to start the final two games of the season tonight and tomorrow. That leads to an interesting question: Which pitcher, if either, should the Twins keep around next season? While I think it’s entirely possible that neither pitcher is back in Minnesota next year, if I had to choose between the two, I’d keep Kremer and bid farewell to Ober. Let’s do a little side-by-side comparison, and we’ll start with the basics. It’s worth emphasizing that his sample is much smaller than Ober’s, as Kremer has thrown just 47 ⅓ innings in Minnesota compared to Ober’s 126. Still, the difference is notable across the board. Kremer currently has a 3.80 ERA and 3.81 FIP in his time with the Twins compared 4.21 and 4.52 for Ober. Kremer has given up hits and homers at a lower rate as a result of giving up less hard contact. Neither guy strikes out a ton of hitters, but Kremer is at least staying relatively close to one per inning whereas Ober has fallen far below that. Again, Kremer has done this over a much smaller sample, so there’s certainly some caution that needs to be exercised when looking at those numbers. But there’s another important piece of the puzzle here: The Twins have made some slight mechanical adjustments to Kremer, and so far, those tweaks appear to have worked. The biggest change has been raising his arm angle slightly. That's helped his fastball run up in the zone more consistently, while allowing his secondary pitches to dive down more effectively. That might sound like a relatively minor adjustment, but it's had a noticeable impact. Ober has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. His ability to stay afloat in spite of this is impressive, but gives him a razor-thin margin for error. Kremer has been able to generate more chases out of the zone, and when hitters do chase, they’re making less contact. That gives his entire arsenal a better chance to play, because his fastball is doing a better job of setting up everything else. And while we all know and love Ober’s electric 88 MPH fastball, it just doesn’t set up the rest of his arsenal in quite the same way Kremer’s fastball does. That becomes especially evident when looking at the swing-and-miss numbers. Kremer is generating whiffs on 28.7% of all swings, which puts him in the top quarter of all major league pitchers. Ober, meanwhile, is getting whiffs on just 20% of swings, putting him in the bottom tenth of the league. That’s a significant difference for two pitchers who are likely competing for essentially the same role in the rotation. The one area where both pitchers have struggled is keeping the ball on the ground. Neither has been particularly effective at generating ground balls, but even there, Kremer holds a slight advantage. And that’s especially important when talking about Ober. It’s no secret that the long ball has been an issue for him throughout his career. His massive 6-foot-9 frame and more than seven feet of extension toward the plate make him one of the most unique pitchers in baseball, but those physical advantages haven’t been enough to consistently prevent opposing hitters from doing damage. And again, any small further loss of velo or stuff at age 31 could lead him into unusable territory. One thing Ober has going for him is a history of demonstrating greater upside. For multiple years, he was one of the Twins' best starters bordering on frontline caliber. Coming into the 2024 season, he was being talked about as a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate, combining his extension and command with an excellent changeup that made him incredibly difficult to square up. But sadly that version of Ober may be gone for good. At this point, the Twins have several young pitchers who could take over the back end of the rotation, and while Kremer isn't as exciting of a name as someone like Abel or Prielipp, he's shown enough since arriving in Minnesota to make me think there’s still something there. Maybe the Twins ultimately decide they don’t want either pitcher back in 2027. With both entering their final year of team control, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the organization explore other options. But if the choice comes down to Kremer or Ober, I’m keeping Kremer. The mechanical changes have already produced encouraging results, his underlying numbers have been better, and his fastball appears to be setting up the rest of his arsenal more effectively. Ober deserves credit for what he’s accomplished in Minnesota, and it’s a shame to see a pitcher who once looked like such an intriguing long-term piece reach this point. But sometimes a fresh start is best for both sides. If I’m the Twins, I’m keeping Dean Kremer and letting Bailey Ober start fresh with a new team next season. View the full article

Players always say that the game speeds up on them when the MLB postseason rolls around. Now imagine what it does for managers, who have to be looking three steps ahead, whether it is regarding the bullpen, a pinch-hitter, a pinch-runner or some other situation where a split-second decision can make the difference in winning or losing a playoff game. In other words, where is your trust level for first-year manager Craig Stammen as he prepares to take the San Diego Padres into the postseason? There is reason to be a little wary of Stammen and his decision-making entering the biggest games of the season. And it all has to do with how he handles pitchers. All you have to do is look back a couple weeks ago when the Friars hosted the Washington Nationals on Sept. 9. Veteran right-handed starter Walker Buehler had given up a leadoff homer and a bases-loaded RBI single to trail 2-0 in the top of the third inning. After getting a pop-out for the first out, Stammen walked out with the intention of removing Buehler. As he continued his path to the mound, he changed his mind. But Buehler's fate was already sealed. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla had already made a trip out to counsel Buehler. Stammen chatted with Buehler, who was miffed that the manager was out there in the first place, then walked to the back of the mound as Stammen headed back to the dugout. That is when the umpires stepped in and, since it was the second mound visit, required a new pitcher be brought into the game. Now, it all worked out for Stammen and the Padres that day. The bullpen allowed just one hit and no runs over the final 5⅔ innings in what would be a 9-2 victory over the Nationals, the fifth straight win in what would be an eight-game winning streak. Stammen fessed up in his postgame press conference to forgetting Niebla's visit. Perhaps he knew before he went out to make the change, but it escaped him as he went over that choice as he approached Buehler on the mound. That is also the reason why Niebla didn't stop Stammen. The decision had been made. It can be brushed off considering the result, but it also has to raise the concern level for Stammen's split-second decision-making as big moments approach in a postseason game. There have been other moments during the season where Stammen has discussed his thought process behind a pitching decision where he leaned toward trusting a pitcher when the better move was to bring in another arm. That's very understandable considering Stammen was a reliever during his career; as a pitcher, you always want to be trusted to do the job in a certain situation. Perhaps the only times that Stammen hasn't hesitated was when the decision involved superstar closer Mason Miller. When in doubt, even with trusted left-hander Adrian Morejon on the mound, Stammen will go to Miller to secure the victory. Now, that can be the right move at any opportunity in the postseason, but it can lead to overuse in the regular season of certain relievers, while not allowing other relievers to build confidence in those situations. Now, the Padres are making a third straight trip to the postseason, the first time that has happened in the franchise's 58 seasons, eyeing a third consecutive 90-win season after having just four previously. Stammen deserves credit for getting the Friars this far. But Morejon, right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez, and Miller have pitched in the most games of any Padres reliever. Morejon has blown past his previous career high for innings and Miller just recently did, while Rodriguez is in his first full MLB season. Now, those three will be shouldering the load, especially if this team advances deep into October. Stammen's choice in Sept. 19 game vs. the Miami Marlins for Miller to come in for a five-out save after Morejon had issued back-to-back walks in the eighth inning was surprising. Miller got out of the jam with runners on the corners by striking out the first two batters he faced. But in the ninth, the closer missed his spot on a 1-0 four-seamer to Griffin Conine, with the Marlins pinch-hitter taking him deep and tying the game. This was the Ethan Salas walk-off game, so again, it worked out. Would the eighth and ninth have gone differently if Morejon had faced another batter or two in the eighth and Miller began the ninth? We will never know. But the extra work that Miller has had to put in—willingly put in, too—could come back to haunt Stammen and the Padres in the postseason. Stammen will rightfully go to Miller early in a postseason game (two innings max). You just hope that his previous workload doesn't diminish what he can do in these important games. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers’ pitching pipeline flows like a rushing river. There aren’t many teams in baseball who have been better at developing young pitchers. Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson are two of the latest and most prominent examples. Both have electric stuff that overwhelms batters and misses bats, making it pretty easy to see why the Brewers are so excited about their futures—and their present, for that matter. Robert Gasser doesn’t stand out in the same way. He doesn’t have incredible swing-and-miss stuff or an upper-90s fastball. He isn’t going to make hitters look completely helpless. But he’s gonna throw the kitchen sink at you, and if you think you’ve figured him out, there’s probably something hiding in the garbage disposal. Despite having merely average velocity, Gasser’s quality of contact metrics are excellent. Opponents' hard-hit rate and average exit velocity both rank in the 85th percentile or better among all major-league pitchers. It starts with the sweeper. It's been Gasser’s most-used pitch throughout his major-league career, and it’s easy to understand why when you watch it come out of his hand. With his low arm angle and how far away from his body he lets the ball go, it looks like a left-handed hitter is about to get decapitated by the pitch, before it suddenly moves away. It has a Stuff+ grade of 122, with 100 being league average. Moral of the story: It’s nasty. That’s a big reason why Gasser has been throwing his sinker nearly 30% of the time against left-handed hitters. If a hitter is sitting on a pitch that starts at them and veers away, only to get something that starts over the plate and runs in on them, squaring it up becomes pretty much impossible. Those are the pitches in Gasser’s arsenal that hitters are struggling to handle the most. But it doesn’t stop there. Gasser’s four-seam fastball only averages around 93 MPH, but it's actually been his biggest swing-and-miss pitch this season. Throwing from so low a slot, he generates ample arm-side run on the pitch, while giving it a completely different shape than his sinker. That four-seamer also comes surprisingly close to his sweeper in terms of Stuff+, checking in at 114. Hitters are getting underneath it consistently, because they have to respect the sinker and its much different movement. The average four-seamer induces a swing that barely clips the bottom part of the ball or misses underneath it 45% of the time; Gasser's makes that 55%. Despite the four-seamer being his second-most frequently thrown pitch, Gasser has allowed just two home runs on it all season. That’s a pretty strong profile for a pitch that doesn’t even crack 95 mph. Then there’s the cutter. Many pitchers in modern baseball (and particularly in Milwaukee) have embraced the three-fastball mix, pairing a sinker and four-seamer with a cutter. Gasser is one of them, and his cutter might be the perfect complement to everything else he throws. Because hitters have to respect his four-seamer and sinker (as well as the sweeper, moving in the opposite direction), his cutter gives them another movement pattern to worry about. It moves to the glove side a foot more than the four-seamer and more like 18 inches more than the sinker, and it drops about 8 inches more than the four-seamer—all while coming in around 88 MPH, much firmer than the 81-MPH sweeper. That combination makes it very challenging to identify out of his hand. Unlike his sweeper, four-seamer and sinker, Gasser isn’t really using his cutter as a put-away pitch. But when a pitcher can use a pitch to set everything else up and keep hitters off balance as effectively as Gasser has, it doesn’t necessarily need to be. It’s a darn good fourth pitch. It also gives him options. Here's a glimpse of how, thanks to FanGraphs's nifty Paired Pitches visualization tool. If you think of Gasser's four-seamer as the pitch off which he's working (it's his most-used one against righties) and assume that its target is the top of the zone in the middle of the plate, this is how his other pitches play off of it. The sinker keeps a batter honest; they have to respect the outside edge. But Gasser's ability to beat those hitters comes on the pitches that move in on them. The cutter is the one he can use against a disciplined hitter who has the outside half well-covered. The sweeper is the one he can throw at overly aggressive ones who are looking for the four-seamer or the cutter, to get a chase on a pitch ticketed for their back foot. Then there’s the changeup, which is technically Gasser’s fifth pitch. He’s throwing it roughly 10% of the time, and according to Stuff+, it’s actually his worst offering, with a grade of just 83. That number feels a little misleading. He throws a firm changeup, averaging only about 4 MPH slower than his fastballs, but it serves its purpose. He’s getting plenty of hitters out in front of it, which is exactly what you want from a changeup. There have been times when the pitch catches too much of the plate and hitters are able to square it up. But when Gasser locates it, it’s gross. He technically has a slider in the arsenal, too, but he’s thrown it just 10 times all season. I wouldn’t expect that pitch to factor much into his playoff pitch mix, especially when he already has five legitimate offerings to work with. As the playoffs draw closer, it seems increasingly likely that Gasser will be Milwaukee’s Game 3 starter in the NLDS, taking the mound in what could be an elimination game for whichever team he faces. That’s a pretty important spot for a pitcher who doesn’t have the traditional profile of an ace, but when he's locating, Gasser has enough options to pitch at nearly that level. None of it necessarily jumps off the page on its own. Put it all together, though, and you get a pitcher who can make hitters uncomfortable in just about every possible way. The Brewers have become very good at developing young pitching, and Gasser might be one of the best examples of why. He may not have the same kind of eye-popping arsenal as Misiorowski or Henderson, but there’s a lot more to pitching than throwing hard. Sometimes, you just need to throw the kitchen sink at them. View the full article