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It's become an annual tradition in Milwaukee: A pitcher acquired in a minor transaction breaks out as a consistent middle reliever who can handle occasional high-leverage work for a couple of seasons. It was Hoby Milner in 2022, Joel Payamps the following year, Jared Koenig after that, and Grant Anderson in 2025. None of them truly emerged out of nowhere, though. The Brewers brought each of them in because they saw qualities that could make them effective: Milner and Anderson's deception; Payamps's sweeping slider; and Koenig's velocity spike upon becoming a full-time reliever. The front office constructs strong bullpens by continually stockpiling intriguing pitch qualities throughout the organization. Not all of those guys pan out, but if you collect enough spaghetti to throw at the wall, some will stick to round out an eight-man bullpen. Easton McGee fit that mold from the moment the Brewers signed him to a two-year, minor-league deal in November 2023, making him a name to watch in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Sure enough, he joined the 40-man roster in May and spent the summer riding the bullpen shuttle between Milwaukee and Nashville. The results were unimposing. In 14 ⅔ low-leverage innings, McGee pitched to a 5.52 ERA and 103 DRA-. The real accomplishment of his season was that he showcased the qualities in his post-surgery arsenal that could yield future success. A former starter, McGee throws five pitches with distinct shapes, plus a rarely-used changeup. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, his sinker induced ground balls on 57.8% of batted balls, while his four-seamer produced a 31.1% whiff rate. Both pitches jumped from averaging 90 mph to 93 mph with the move to the bullpen. A more consistent cutter gave McGee the fully-developed trio of fastballs the Brewers love, and he has two big breaking pitches to choose from based on the angles he wants to play in a given matchup. Pitch grading models see McGee's stuff as average, but some of the movement he creates is more impressive from his arm angle. He stands 6-foot-7, but his low-three-quarters delivery pushes his average release height (5.5 feet) below the league norm for right-handed pitchers (5.8 feet). From that slot, one would expect McGee to be a sinker-slider guy, and those two pitches made up his primary mix to righties in 2025. However, his four-seamer and curveball are arguably his most deceptive offerings. The former had two more inches of carry than usual for his arm angle, while the latter had three more inches of unexpected depth. McGee could join Anderson as a sinkerballer by trade who leans more heavily on an effective high four-seamer over time. He already used his curveball more frequently in the big leagues, perhaps because it's the only secondary offering he throws from a nearly identical arm slot to his fastballs. The right-hander still has some hurdles to clear before a breakout season. His delivery puts him at risk of struggling with platoon splits, which was already the case in his debut. While righties managed just a .252 xwOBA against McGee, his low slot is a much easier look for lefties, who tagged him for a .366 xwOBA. To hedge those splits, McGee must find a way to be deceptive most of the time, not just with a particular pitch. Given the array of shapes in his arsenal, that may be a matter of deciding which pitches to use, learning how to sequence them, and developing more consistent release points. If McGee makes those strides, don't be surprised if he ascends from the roster bubble to become a regular contributor. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays fell short of winning the 2025 World Series, but their lengthy postseason run yielded financial benefits to the players, other personnel, and the team/owner. As Jay Centre’s Leo Morgenstern noted in his article, Details on Blue Jays' Share of Postseason Revenue Pool, Toronto’s players and other employees will share in the $128.2 million players’ pool. The amount allocated to the Blue Jays was $30.8 million. At the club/owner level, there were also financial rewards from the Blue Jays’ postseason journey. From this point forward, unless stated otherwise, any reference to what the Blue Jays received from the postseason run excludes any compensation due to the players or other employees. In other words, the focus is on the financial benefits to the Blue Jays’ company/Rogers Communications. The first reward is Toronto’s share of postseason gate receipts. This number is not currently publicly available, but we can use the $128.2 million players’ pool figure and other publicly available figures to estimate the amount the Blue Jays received in postseason gate receipts. Let’s get started! Below is an excerpt from a 2012 FanGraphs article. My understanding is that the allocation above is accurate except for the Wild Card games. When Wendy Thurm wrote the aforementioned FanGraphs article, the Wild Card round was only one game long, as opposed to the current best-of-three format. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (Article X), players receive 60 percent of paid attendance receipts for the first two games of each Wild Card Series. So, what were the total gate receipts from the 2025 postseason? A back-of-the-envelope calculation is as follows: There were 47 playoff games in 2025, 32 of which were games used to determine the $128.2 million players’ pool amount. Given that the players’ share of the gate receipts is 60% of the games noted in the excerpt, those games are equivalent to 19.2 games (32 games x 0.60). Accordingly, the gate receipts per game are $6.7 million ($128.2 million / 19.2 games). Total gate receipts are the number of games multiplied by the gate receipts per game. Hence, total gate receipts are $314.9 million (47 games x $6.7 million). The Commissioner’s Office would receive $47.2 million ($314.9 million x 0.15). Accordingly, the "teams’ pool" is $139.5 million ($314.9 million - $128.2 million - $47.2 million). However, concerning Toronto’s share of gate receipts, we require a more detailed calculation because postseason teams do not share in the teams’ pool per se. Instead, the two teams in each series share equally in the gate receipts allocated to them. Therefore, a more precise estimate of Toronto’s share of gate receipts requires attendance figures and ticket prices for each series. Onto the tables! Table 1 shows MLB’s 2025 postseason attendance by series. Table 2 presents my estimates of gate receipts by series and the allocation of gate receipts to players, teams, and the Commissioner’s Office. Please note that I increased the average ticket price as the postseason continued. I arbitrarily increased the average Wild Card Series ticket price for the Division Series, Championship Series and World Series by factors of 1.25, 1.50 and 2.00, respectively. I am comfortable with the ticket prices shown because they generated the $128.2 million Players’ Pool figure, and the $316.7 million total gate receipts were within 0.6% of my back-of-the-envelope $314.9 million estimate. Please note that, for each series Toronto played, the teams’ share of gate receipts was split equally between the ballclubs. Accordingly, the Blue Jays shared gate receipts with the Yankees (Division Series), the Mariners (League Championship Series), and the Dodgers (World Series). Hence, Tables 1 and 2, and the supporting numbers, are essential for calculating Toronto’s share of gate receipts. Behold Table 3! Toronto’s share of gate receipts was $48.2 million, comprised of the 20 percent share (50% of 40% or $18.2 million, the sum of Rows A) of gate receipts that were also allocated to the Players’ Pool, and the half-share (50% of 100% or $30.0 million, the sum of Rows B) of the gate receipts distributable to the two teams. Lastly, the fee due to the Commissioner’s Office (15% of $48.2 million or $11.3 million) is deducted, leaving Rogers with a tidy net sum of $36.9 million. In addition to the postseason gate receipts, there are other benefits to the team/Rogers that I cannot calculate. These include increased merchandise, concession, and other game-related revenues attributable to the postseason. Additionally, regular season revenue streams and ticket sales likely increased due to Toronto’s run for the American League East division title. Additionally, 2026 ticket sales should increase due to a successful 2025 regular season and playoff campaign. Lastly, Rogers owns Sportsnet, which holds the Blue Jays' television and radio rights. Although I do not have data to support this claim, Sportsnet’s television ratings, in particular, must have increased substantially, benefiting the broadcaster and, indirectly, Rogers financially. A non-financial reward of the regular season and postseason could be that free agents are viewing the Blue Jays more favourably as a destination. Toronto’s extended playoff run, together with the enthusiastic nationwide fan support during the regular season and playoffs, should make the Blue Jays more attractive. Indeed, money is a significant factor for free agents, but players may view a team that projects to be a well-supported, successful franchise in 2026 more positively. The Last Word For the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans, the 2025 postseason did not culminate in a World Series championship. However, the players and the owner benefited financially from the playoff journey. The players and other employees will participate in their $30.8 million share of the players’ pool. The team/Rogers benefited from an estimated $36.9 million net share of 2025 postseason gate receipts. Other benefits to the team/owner include increased merchandise, concession, and other game-day-related revenue streams. May 2026 bring a World Series championship to the Blue Jays and their fans, as well as more financial benefits from another long postseason journey. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox improved their offense just prior to Christmas, as they completed their fourth major trade of the offseason and second with the St. Louis Cardinals. The move, which brought over slugging first baseman Willson Contreras and $8 million in cash, saw the Red Sox send back three young and exciting pitchers. The headliner of the trade was fan-favorite Hunter Dobbins who made his major-league debut for the Red Sox in 2025. The right-hander provided valuable depth for the organization as he traveled up and down the Mass Pike throughout the season. Dobbins quickly endeared himself to the team thanks to his quality pitching, along with his immediate dislike of the Yankees, going as far to say that if only the Yankees offered him a contract, he would rather retire from the sport. Overall, Dobbins pitched in 13 games with Boston, making 11 starts. He would go on to finish the year with a 4-1 record while striking out 45 batters across 61 innings. Despite being a rookie, Dobbins anchored the back end of the rotation while the Sox battled injuries and inconsistency. While the month of May yielded some growing pains for Dobbins (16 earned runs over 28 1/3 innings), he turned a corner when it was needed; in June, he allowed just eight earned runs across 20 innings pitched, including a huge six inning, scoreless appearance against the New York Yankees on Father’s Day weekend. As a pitcher, Dobbins incorporates six pitches, using his fastball most often. While the right-hander was around average in chase rate (28.1%), his whiff rate and strikeout rate were both near the bottom of the league (21.9% and 17.6%, respectively). However, he managed to stay out of a lot of trouble thanks to an amazingly low walk rate (6.6%) and an ability to keep the ball on the ground at nearly a 50% rate. Dobbins’ season ended prematurely in July when he tore his ACL in his right knee during a start in July against the Tampa Bay Rays while covering first base. Dobbins was already down at Fort Myers earlier this offseason and had shown he was playing catch at the complex. His goal is to be ready for the start of the season — if he is, could crack the Opening Day rotation for the Cardinals. Also joining Dobbins on their way to St. Louis are two interesting minor-league pitchers in right-handers Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. Fajardo came to the Red Sox as the return from the trade that sent left-hander Cam Booser to the Chicago White Sox. Fajardo, while young, was a quick riser on Red Sox prospect lists. He opened the season allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings in the Florida Complex League. Then, he would go on to finish the campaign starting 13 games for Single-A Salem, tossing 51 1/3 innings and striking out 59 batters. Fajardo still has some projection to grow, especially in his upper body. He relies on three pitches, a fastball that tops out at 97 mph, a slider that flashes bat-missing potential and a changeup that already shows good movement and occasional bat-missing ability. He also has a two-seam fastball he sometimes uses that has arm-side run and sink. Aita, on the other hand, was drafted in the sixth round of the 2024 Draft out of Kennesaw State. The right-hander pitched well in his first taste of professional baseball in 2025, making 23 appearances between Single-A Salem and High-A Greenville. Overall, he would go on to finish with a 5-7 record and a 3.98 ERA across 115 1/3 innings pitched. Aita showed better improvement upon reaching Greenville, pitching 64 1/3 innings while recording a 3.78 ERA, compared to just 51 innings and a 4.24 ERA with Salem. The right-hander throws a fastball, sweeper, cutter, and changeup, and all look to be at least average at this point. Aita took to the Red Sox pitching program well, as his fastball (which sat around 89-92 mph in college) averaged around 92-95 mph across the season. The fastball, along with his sweeper and cutter, also generated high spin rates. His sweeper alone reached over 3200 RPMs during the season and showcased strong bat-missing potential. While the Red Sox managed to bring in a much-needed offensive improvement, it was not without a big sacrifice. Thankfully, the Red Sox under Craig Breslow have overhauled their pitching development so that moves like this don’t hurt as much as they did in the past. The trade overall seems like a win for both sides, as the Red Sox got their offensive addition while Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals got younger and brought in interesting pitching prospects that should help accelerate their young rebuild. View the full article

It looked like Michael King would not be heading back to San Diego as recently as a few days ago, when it was reported his market was down to Baltimore, New York, and Boston. But something changed, because King is back in town on a three-year, $75 million deal. The Padres got their ace back, and the rotation now looks something like this: Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears. For the first time this offseason, there are five starters who the team probably feels okay with in the rotation, and there's still the option of moving Mason Miller into the rotation as well. While this could be the final rotation going into 2026, there's now a higher possibility than before that we could see one of the Padres starters dealt this winter. That is Nick Pivetta, whose name has been thrown around in trade talks for a few weeks now. Obviously, shopping a guy like Pivetta would be risky, but it makes sense to think about the big picture. If Pivetta puts together another ace-level performance in 2026, he will very likely opt out after the season and sign a big contract, probably with another team. If he struggles in 2026 and turns out to be a one-year wonder, the Padres missed their chance to sell high on an average starter. The one big reason to hold on to Pivetta was the fear that a Pivetta trade would leave San Diego without any ace pitchers atop the rotation. Now that King is back, that's no longer the case. Especially if the team is considering moving Miller into the rotation, Pivetta would be their best trade asset. After all, it's no secret the Padres have a lot of needs. Most of those needs have been covered up in the past few seasons by their superstars. Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, King, Pivetta, and an elite bullpen have managed to cover up a lot of the Padres' holes, but that won't last forever. The team has very little depth, especially in the outfield and the pitching staff. The Padres' farm system is among the weakest in the league, with Ethan Salas as their only top 100 prospect. If Pivetta were to be traded this offseason, he’d likely fetch significant value. The Padres might be able to land a top-100 prospect, in addition to a package of depth pieces and other prospects, if they decide to trade Pivetta. His stock is higher than it probably will ever be, especially if teams see him as a multi-year addition. Small-market teams probably would be shy to trade for Pivetta because of the opt-out, but a team like Los Angeles, New York, or Chicago would easily be able to extend Pivetta or re-sign him if he opts out. Losing their No. 2 starter would still weaken the Padres' rotation, but not as much as it would have weakened them before they brought back Michael King. Knowing AJ Preller, he will not be afraid to make whatever move he feels brings the Padres closest to a championship. If he feels keeping Pivetta gives them the best opportunity to win the World Series, he would not trade him, even with his value at an all-time high. But Preller has shown that for the right price, he’ll make almost any trade. If he feels it will improve the roster or the farm system, Pivetta could be out the door. And now that King is back at the top of the rotation, the Padres might just be okay without Pivetta in 2026. View the full article

Miami Marlins right-handed reliever Ronny Henriquez will miss the entire 2026 season after undergoing right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace. MLB.com's Christina De Nicola was the first to report the news Monday night and the club later followed with official confirmation. Dr. Keith Meister performed the procedure—that's the same surgeon who worked with fellow Marlins Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez when they required UCL reconstruction. Henriquez, 25, was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on February 11 and made the Opening Day roster out of spring training. In 69 appearances (73.0 IP), he posted a 2.22 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 12.08 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and notched seven saves. His 98 strikeouts tied Edwin Díaz for second-most among National League relievers last year. He didn't spend any time on the injured list. In 2025, the Marlins ranked 26th amongst MLB bullpens in fWAR and 22nd in bullpen ERA. Before the loss of Henriquez, the Marlins had been in pursuit of veteran relievers this offseason. They are now even more desperate for outside help. Original top targets such as Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and Kyle Finnegan are now off the market after receiving multi-year deals. Miami remains very interested in Pete Fairbanks, who may be the best option in free agency willing to take a one-year deal. Current in-house candidates to enter games in high-leverage situations include Calvin Faucher, who led the team last year with 15 saves, Anthony Bender and Tyler Phillips. Also, Lake Bachar and left-hander Cade Gibson were on the active roster for most of the year. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a split-level contract with free agent catcher Christian Bethancourt, which would pay the player $1,600,000 if he is on the major league roster. The catcher spent his most recent season in the Toronto Blue Jays' system, appearing in 58 games with their Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons, where he struggled with a 42 wRC+. Despite his struggles in 2025, Bethancourt had a successful stint with the Chicago Cubs the year prior, after being acquired from the Miami Marlins. He would go on to post a .281/.305/.509 line, smashing three home runs and finishing with a 125 wRC+ in 59 plate appearances. Bethancourt is not being signed with an eye toward starting with the major league club, as the team projects to have Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya (as he returns from injury) man the backstop. However, as we saw with Amaya last year, you can never count out a rash of injuries at the position, which will strengthen the organization's depth there. This contract will allow the Cubs to stash their new signing in Iowa and have him serve as a "break glass in case of emergency" type of player. It's true that the club also has top prospect Moises Ballesteros available at the position, but he's still a work-in-progress defensively. He may be able to make a lot of strides over the winter, or he may still need work. With as many as 40-man spots on the team, they can afford this kind of luxury, having a few different options to choose from. If everything goes to plan, you'd hope you'll never need him, but having someone capable of playing the position is always important, as the team has learned in previous seasons. What do you think of Christian Bethancourt? Do you think he's a good addition as a third- or fourth-option at the position organizationally? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

With baseball free agency contracts soaring across the league, finding and developing hidden gems is critical for teams that are unable or unwilling to spend big in free agency. In order to compete with organizations such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies, teams need to hit on late-round picks that have tools and physical traits that can develop over time to become MLB regulars. One under-the-radar Cubs prospect worth keeping tabs on is 2024 11th-round draft pick (pick #332 overall), Eli Lovich. He is a 20-year-old outfield prospect with a large frame, 6’4”, 185 pounds. With Pete Crow-Armstrong manning center field for the foreseeable future, he could fit nicely in a corner outfield position due to his strong arm and above-average speed. He has the body type to add strength as he continues to mature, which would make 20 home runs per year a realistic target. Lovich will likely require multiple years in the minors before becoming a threat to crack the majors. That timeline suits the Cubs' current situation: Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both open the 2026 season at 31 years old, and a couple of the top outfield prospects in the organization (Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara) are closer to getting more opportunities on the field in the near future. Lovich appeared to be headed to the University of Arkansas before the Cubs selected him with the 332nd pick of the 2024 draft and shortly thereafter assigned him to the ACL Cubs on August 15, 2024, before being assigned to Myrtle Beach on June 10th, 2025. The stats do not jump off the page from his first 73 minor league games (.232 avg, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 18 SB), but that was to be expected for a young prospect that will need time. That is why following his journey over the next few seasons will be very intriguing for the Cubs’ 29th-ranked prospect (according to MLB Pipeline). If things go right for Lovich, he could provide solid depth and flexibility down the road, which will be paramount for a team that could be without Kyle Tucker (free agent) and aging mainstays, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, by that time. View the full article

Ely Sussman explains why the recent trade of Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles gives us a clear idea of what Edward Cabrera is currently worth. Then, Matt Goudreau, president and general manager of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, discusses all aspects of his role with the Marlins Triple-A affiliate. You can find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. Although Cabrera's major league career has been more successful than Baz's to this point, these right-handed starters have more in common than you might realize at first glance. Both have three remaining years of club control, similar projected salaries for the 2026 season and plus fastball velocity. The quality of contact they've allowed has been comparable as well. Traditionally, a player's last season is weighted heavily when determining their current value. However, this particular MLB offseason has been rife with examples of pitchers who were coveted despite run prevention struggles. All things considered, I estimate that Cabrera's value is only 5-10% higher than Baz's. Matt Goudreau joined the Jumbo Shrimp in June 2021 as assistant general manager after stints at the University of Memphis, San Francisco 49ers, San Jose State University and Pittsburgh Pirates. Goudreau was at the forefront of the multi-year VyStar Ballpark renovations ("Project NEXT"), which included the complete remodel of both home and visiting clubhouses, new video board and ribbon boards, new right field building which includes the team’s new administrative offices, street level team store and the Right Field Hall/Power Alley, the PNC Home Plate Club, and a new main gate. Additionally, he has managed the stadium operations team, been the primary liaison to the Jumbo Shrimp coaching staff and Marlins player development department, and has also helped oversee gameday staff working events at VyStar Ballpark. Earlier this month, Goudreau was promoted to his current role. Shortly after, the Jumbo Shrimp were sold by longtime owner Ken Babby to the Prospector Baseball Group. Swim Around the Diamond At the end of every episode of The Offishial Show, I will be highlighting and recommending Marlins-related content that was posted recently outside of FOF. Here's what I picked this time: Graduates: Welcome to the big leagues (East Carolina University) Edwards' youth camp growing in size, support (MLB.com) Miami Marlins Best to Wear Jersey Number Series (Marlin Maniac) Edward Cabrera exclusive interview (El Primer Out) Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View the full article

While we don't know a whole lot about the reported trade talks between the San Diego Padres & the New York Mets, we at least know enough to be intrigued. Even if they've slowed at this point. For example, we know that neither of Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Padres' end nor Francisco Lindor on the Mets' side were included as part of the talks. We also know that Mason Miller's name emerged as part of the discussion. At this point, that's kind of all we know. But that leaves a whole lot of wiggle room for speculation. Let's talk about the things we do know first. It's not a surprise that neither of the team's respective stars are a part of the discussion. A.J. Preller has come as close as possible to declaring Fernando Tatis Jr. untouchable without saying the literal phrase while the team is also unlikely to be willing to take on another long-term contract for a position player. Despite Lindor's continued status as one of the game's top shortstops — he still posted a 6.3 fWAR in 2025 even with a slight power dip — he's a 32-year-old under contract through 2031. Preller is more compelled to get money off the books for the long-term, rather than add to it. Miller's inclusion in talks is, somewhat paradoxically, also not a surprise. Despite the fact that the team only acquired him in July for a package that included top prospect Leo De Vries, trading from the bullpen represents perhaps the best opportunity for the Padres to make improvements to their roster in areas that are not as fortified. As for the still-known-but-less-tangible components of the two matching up on a potential deal, we know the Padres are seeking starting pitching, even following the re-signing of Michael King. The Mets have some depth there and some intriguing names in the upper levels of their system. On their side of things, they're looking to supplement their offense upon Pete Alonso's departure while also adding to their relief corps after Edwin Díaz left for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While it's difficult to see the Padres moving Miller for anything resembling less than a similar haul to the one they gave up, the idea that his name is part of the discussion at least lends itself to a larger one that any move between the two teams would include a reliever of significance (of which the Padres have many). So, it makes sense that either team would find some solace in the other as far as trade partners go. For Preller, though, the Mets may represent the most ideal trade partner he could find this offseason. The Padres and their rotation represent perhaps as obvious a need as exists for any club across the major league landscape. With only Nick Pivetta (and King) set to serve as an established starter, there's an urgency for Preller to solidify the group. If he can do so while also threading the needle of the holy grail of trade acquisitions (controllable starting pitching), the Mets can offer him exactly what he wants. The Mets have already said that Nolan McLean represents an untouchable quantity from their farm system. He's the No. 11 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline, and should factor heavily in their rotation in 2026. Fortunately for the Padres, he's not the only prospective starter near the top of their farm that's slotted into the league's top 100 prospects. Jonah Tong is a name you'll likely hear a lot if trade talks between the two sides continue. His Pipeline writeup states the following: The profile goes on to note his rising walk rate but also communicates the idea that he could be part of a rotation in 2026. Tong's combination of stuff, deception, and fact that he's only 22 represent a tantalizing combination for an organization like San Diego. And he's not the only one. Brandon Sproat no longer qualifies as a prospect, but his 2024 profile notes the following: Velocity, interesting secondary pitches, and 25 years old? That all tracks as something the Padres certainly desire. Either of Tong or Sproat would be a massive addition to the Padres not only for 2026 but moving forward. It remains to be seen if they'd have to part with an arm like Miller to get a prospect with Tong-like pedigree, but it's not as if he's the only reliever with tremendous upside in the bullpen. It's also not as if Tong and Sproat are the only intriguing names within the Mets' organization, either. We previously discussed the idea of a Kodai Senga trade on the San Diego side of things. While far from a sure thing given his injury history, he'd certainly offer upside at what would likely be perceived as a lower cost than either of Tong or Sproat. There are also reports that the Mets are willing to part with David Peterson, who is coming off a career-high 30 starts in 2025. He's more of an unexciting vintage among the options, but would offer some stability for a rotation that currently lacks it. There are obviously plenty of nuances to any arm that the Padres could acquire from the Mets, to say nothing of any deal at large. But with New York having a blend of established big-league arms and high-upside prospects which would slot well into a rotation starved for innings, the long and short of the discussion is that they represent the most ideal trade partner for A.J. Preller. While we'll likely hear of others in the coming weeks, the dialogue with the Mets should continue for that reason alone. View the full article

It feels, looking back, like Pablo López missed practically the whole 2025 season. He was sidelined for the key stretch in which the Twins flopped out of contention and sold off the roster for parts, and with the much shorter stints he spent on the injured list early and late in the campaign, it's hard to remember the times when he was actually available. Somehow, though, he made 14 starts on the year, and he posted a stellar 2.74 ERA. Since the Twins' plan for 2026 appears to be giving it one more try with their familiar core, it will be important that López be similarly excellent (and a bit more sturdy) next season. Few players are more reliable or conscientious, though, and even fewer are more creative, so López is as good a candidate to have a great year as anyone in the projected starting rotation. He even added an interesting and valuable pitch to his mix this season: the kick-change. López was thoughtful and cautious with his implementation of that new flavor of changeup. It's a pitch that utilizes an altered grip to change the spin axis out of the hand, without a significant change in the way one manipulates the hand or forearm at release, and for López, it was extremely effective. In fact, there's significant evidence that it's better than his usual changeup. According to Baseball Prospectus's StuffPro and PitchPro, López's original changeup is an average pitch, but the kick-change is a potential dominator. It's 0.6 and 1.4 runs better than the standard change per 100 pitches thrown by those two models, respectively, which is a huge margin. That invites the question: Should López lean more into that offering (and away from the changeup he's been throwing instead) in 2026? To answer that question, let's consider the shape and the characteristics of the two distinct cambios. Prospectus shows many of those numbers distinctly, because their pitch classification system can distinguish the regular change from the kick-change, but we can find more of it by teasing out which is which even on Baseball Savant—where all of these pitches are lumped under one 'changeup' pitch type. Here's a chart showing López's horizontal and vertical movement on all his changeups, via Savant, colored by spin rate. As you might guess, the old, reliable changeup is the cluster of gray and reddish dots on the upper right. The kick change, by contrast, lives in blue. The intruding middle finger, which delivers that kick to change the spin axis for the kick-change, also kills some spin, which results in more depth on the pitch but less command. Note how much tighter the cluster of movement coordinates is for the old changeup than for the new one. The dividing line for the two pitches turns out to be right around 1,800 RPM. Draw a line there, and you can get Statcast to show you (more or less) the vitals on the two different pitches living under one umbrella. Spin Rate % of Changeups MPH Hor. Mvmt. IVB Arm Angle EV LA Zone Rate Whiff Rate xwOBA Under 1,800 (CK) 36.7 87.6 12.2 -0.3 36.5° 87 8 30.6 33.3 .183 1800+ (CH) 63.7 87.2 16.5 4.3 34.8° 86 15 40.6 24.4 .405 It's not quite as stark a situation as what we see here, because while we have almost exactly the right number of pitches in each bin (comparing the breakdown we roughed out with the count of each type of change on López's Prospectus player card), a few of the wrong ones are in each. His highest-spin kick-changes are likely to be his least effective; his lowest-spin standard changeups are likely to be the most effective. Thus, the expected weighted on-base average for the two pitches isn't actually as different as that table would imply. Still, there's a huge difference here. Notice that the kick-change has considerably less arm-side run, but (by the same amount) more vertical depth. That's why it gets more whiffs and (as implied by the much lower average launch angle) more ground balls. However, you can see why López has been a little bit reluctant to push the pedal down and make the change from one flavor of changeup to the other: it's that zone rate. Less spin and more movement make it hard for López (or anyone else) to land the kick-change in the zone with any consistency. That's a big part of why he stuck with the standard changeup almost two-thirds of the time, when he went to an offspeed pitch. Those same characteristics are also why the kick-change earns more whiffs, though. If he can consistently induce batters to chase outside the zone, then the inability to fill up the zone with the pitch will turn from a lurking weakness to a major strength. Prospectus also offers estimates of the opposing batter's ability to identify a pitch out of the pitcher's hand, based on release point, initial trajectory and other factors, and introducing the kick-change did wonders for López in terms of introducing deception and uncertainty for hitters. The kick-change gets mistaken for his sweeper a plurality of the time against righties, and for his regular changeup equally often against lefties. He matches his arm angle fairly well on both changeups, trusting the grip to do the work of steering them differently. Having both appears to beat leaning into only one, although over a larger sample, that could turn out differently. The question isn't really whether the kick-change should replace the old changeup, then, but whether it might be wisest to reverse the share of his total offspeed portfolio made up by each. Should López throw the kick-change twice as often as the regular change, because it's much more likely to draw whiffs and is a better overall pitch, based on shape and deception? Or would that lead to overexposure, and put him behind in too many counts? López implemented the pitch slowly and carefully, knowing these questions are hard to answer without experimentation—but unwilling to experiment at the cost of his teammates' chance to win on a given day. As he works this winter and goes to spring training, though, it'll be interesting to see whether the kick-change gets greater market share in López's offspeed attack in 2026. It probably should, but for that to work, he has to get the balance between inducing whiffs and letting hitters gain count leverage exactly right. View the full article

As Alex Gordon started to amass Gold Gloves in left field, my brother and I briefly took pitching lessons from his younger brother, Derek. The elder Gordon is known for his muscle-bound frame, while Derek is a lanky 6’6”, a perfect build for a pitcher. Derek put up decent numbers over two minor league seasons, while Alex is a new addition to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. In this series at Royals Keep, I’m looking back on Royals history from this century, the good and the bad, through the lens of memorabilia. As far as I can tell, the Royals have given away six Alex Gordon bobbleheads, plus a Gold Glove replica. He’s been a Star Wars Jedi and immortalized in his pose rounding the bases after his dramatic 2015 World Series Game 1 homer, but his first bobblehead from 2008 is what I’ll focus on here. 2008 was Gordon’s age-24 season, his second in a Royals uniform. He was still a third baseman at the time. I found this blog post announcing a sweepstakes related to this June 21, 2008, giveaway, which points out the Royals hadn’t given away a bobblehead of a current player in several seasons. In fact, the last current player bobblehead before this one was Mike Sweeney, all the way back in April 2003. Such was the state of the Royals from 2003 to 2008. Missed opportunity for a Ken Harvey tarp bobblehead, I guess! Shoutout to 2004 All-Star Ken Harvey. Ken Harvey and Alex Gordon are both Nebraska Cornhuskers, as a matter of fact. The Royals really leaned into the Nebraska of it all with the 2008 bobblehead design. The bobbling Gordon leans against the knob of his bat and holds a baseball. At his feet is a basket filled with baseballs and corn. What could be more Nebraskan than that? The Royals defeated the Giants 5-3 on the night of this bobblehead giveaway. Alex Gordon walked three times! While the Royals gave away a bobblehead in 2021 showing Gordo with his Gold Gloves, they never made a bobblehead showing him making an acrobatic catch or an accurate throw from the outfield. To me, the quintessential Gordon catch involved him racing in towards the infield and making a diving catch angling towards the foul line. A missed opportunity, perhaps, to honor the eight-time Gold Glover. It’s hard to analyze and compare prospect hype, but before the Royals had the #1 farm system in baseball that produced the likes of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, the organization had Alex Gordon (and Billy Butler). Gordon was seen by some as the second coming of George Brett. As was recently circulated, one of the Gordon brothers is named Brett, as are so many midwestern boys, in honor of the only Baseball Hall of Famer wearing a Kansas City Royals cap. While Alex Gordon’s career doesn’t quite reach the statistical markers of the Baseball Hall of Fame, he was inducted this summer into the Royals Hall of Fame. That led to another bobblehead! Besides the suspense of learning who will be inducted into Cooperstown, I always enjoy examining the bottom of the ballot results to see who received a handful of votes. Former Royals to get at least one Hall of Fame vote in the last decade include Raúl Ibañez, Johnny Damon, Jason Kendall, and Mike Sweeney. I’ll be rooting for Gordo to join this list when the results are announced on January 20. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from Chaim Bloom and the St. Louis Cardinals for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita in the second deal of the offseason between the two clubs. According to Chris Cotillo, the Red Sox will pay Contreras $18 million in 2026 and $17 million in 2027, with a club option for 2028. The initial reaction may be that Contreras is not the bat the Red Sox need, especially when compared to Pete Alonso, a player the team made an offer to earlier this offseason. While Contreras does not provide the 40-plus home run power of Alonso, their production is far more similar than many may realize. Since 2023, Contreras has posted 8.2 fWAR, a 129 wRC+, and an .817 OPS. Alonso, by comparison, has an 8.4 fWAR, a 128 wRC+, and an .827 OPS. The two are hardly far apart in terms of offensive value. Contreras underperformed his expected metrics last season: a .257 BA versus a .260 xBA, a .447 SLG versus a .480 xSLG, and a .344 wOBA versus a .358 xwOBA. His expected numbers were all above average by league standards, with his xwOBA and xSLG ranking in the 87th and 85th percentiles, respectively. More importantly, his defense is among the best in baseball. His Outs Above Average ranked in the 91st percentile, with a total of six, the fourth-highest mark among all first basemen. His Fielding Run Value of four was the third-best at the position. Entering the offseason, the Red Sox had a clear need on the infield corners, with first base arguably the more pressing of the two. While homegrown product Triston Casas offers a strong ceiling due to his plate discipline and ability to barrel the ball, he struggled to stay on the field and got off to a slow start in 2025 before a torn patellar tendon ended his season prematurely. Roster Resource immediately slots Contreras into the three spot against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. He is an above-average hitter against both sides, posting a 142 wRC+ versus lefties and a 117 wRC+ versus righties. Beyond his general offensive prowess, Contreras bats right-handed, something the Red Sox lacked without Bregman in the lineup. Prior to the deal, three of the team’s best hitters—Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu—all hit from the left side. Only Anthony was an above-average hitter against left-handed pitching, while Duran and Abreu combined for just four home runs out of their 38 total against lefties. This move opens up the lineup in a significant way. Romy Gonzalez was the likely fill-in at first as Casas rehabbed his way back onto the field, forcing him to play more frequently than his skill-set should allow. Marcelo Mayer can now hit primarily against right-handed pitching, meaning Gonzalez will specialize against lefties as the two rotate (likely) at second base. Manager Alex Cora has long shown an affinity for lineup optimization, and this addition only gives him greater flexibility. Earlier this offseason, I wrote about how the Blue Jays seemingly rose from the ashes to become a World Series contender by prioritizing bat speed. The Red Sox feature top prospects Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell with above-average bat speed, along with the aforementioned Duran and Abreu. Contreras can now be added to that group. His average bat speed in 2025 ranked 23rd in MLB at 76 mph, and 62.1 percent of his swings exceeded 75 mph. Those traits contributed to career highs in 2025 in both barrel rate at 13.8 percent and HardHit rate at 48.9 percent. OHl3bnZfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZjQUJRVU1WZ0FBQVZWWFZBQUhDRk1IQUFNRFdsY0FWRkJXQWdwVUJ3QlVVZ0VE.mp4 For those wondering, this move does not displace Connor Wong or Carlos Narváez in any way. Contreras was officially declared a first baseman by Cardinals leadership last offseason, and the Red Sox aren’t expected to change that. The Red Sox have not received a two-fWAR season from a first baseman since David Ortiz in 2017, a benchmark Contreras should be capable of surpassing. He also brings much-needed durability, as his first season transitioning away from catching was his healthiest since 2018, as he appeared in 135 games. This move should not deter the Red Sox from continuing their pursuit of Alex Bregman in free agency. Even after this deal, they rank near the middle of the league in offensive projections. This acquisition meaningfully strengthens the lineup, but more offensive help is needed in what figures to be a highly competitive AL East. View the full article

The start of 2026 is fast approaching, and the San Diego Padres still haven't made the blockbuster trade(s) that were teased/threatened during the Winter Meetings. That inaction has created a vacuum in the fan realm. Usually, it gets filled with trade ideas that would make every team involved say "no." But until Padres president A.J. Preller decides whether he is or isn't moving Nick Pivetta, Mason Miller and anyone else who has been in the rumor mill this month, people will keep using the interwebs to fire off proposals that totally aren't fleece jobs in the Friars' favor. But what if I told you I have three wild ideas that can be rolled into one multi-team swap that would help everyone involved? And that I can actually defend it? (Save the eye rolls and hate until you get to the end.) With that, and against the opinions of podcasters and pundits who know better (I see you, Erik Kratz), here's what I've devised: TRADE No. 1: Padres and Mets PADRES GET: RHP Kodai Senga INF Ronny Mauricio SS/OF Jett Williams (Mets' No. 4 prospect, No. 51 overall prospect per Baseball America) LHP Jonathan Santucci (Mets' No. 10 prospect) METS GET: RHP Mason Miller OF Ramon Laureano Why the deal makes sense for the Padres: It capitalizes on two sell-high opportunities AND helps to set up a much larger trade. Last year, Miller cost the Padres their top prospect, shortstop Leo De Vries, in a deadline deal. At the moment, he's the team's closer, but Jeremiah Estrada is still around. Miller is 27 and controllable for the next four seasons. His trade value remains sky-high. In 2025, Laureano revived his career as a 30-year-old with the Orioles and Padres. He enjoyed a solid a post-deadline run in San Diego (.812 OPS, nine home runs in 198 plate appearances). He may never be more tradeable, even though the Padres don't have a ready replacement for him. Kratz said on the "Foul Territory" podcast that the Padres should offload Xander Bogaerts' contract if they're serious about trading Miller. That might be needed in a real trade, but here, it isn't. Senga, 33 in January, is a question mark because of injuries and the fact he was demoted to the minors in the middle of a playoff race last year. But his rookie season of 2023 (2.98 ERA/3.63 FIP, 29.1 strikeout percentage in 166 1/3 innings) and contract (two years, $28 million, club option for 2028 based on health) will tease teams. Our @Randy Holt wrote this month that, on paper, a Senga trade to the Padres makes sense; this would be one way to make that happen. Mauricio, 24, is a switch hitter with light-tower power from the left side, but he's still catching up physically two years after suffering a major knee injury. The Athletic's Will Sammon reported this week the Mets are "open to moving" him, along with fellow infielders Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuna. Sammon also reported the return "matters quite a bit" to the Mets in any trades they may make. Dare we say, Miller would make it worth their while? In real life, Mauricio could take over at second base for the Pads, but in this hypothetical, he isn't staying. Neither are Williams, who was the Mets' top prospect and a top-30 player not long ago, or Santucci, who made it to Double-A in his first pro season in 2025 and impressed there. Now, on to what you could call the Pivetta Pivot. TRADE No. 2: Padres and Orioles PADRES GET: 1B Ryan Mountcastle OF Nate George (Orioles' No. 4 prospect, No. 78 overall) RHP Trey Gibson ORIOLES GET: RHP Nick Pivetta and cash Why the deal makes sense for the Padres: San Diego would fill a need on the infield and move a pitcher who is likely in the final year of his contract. They'd also add trade capital for the deal that comes next in this exercise. Pivetta, 33, in February, was at his best in 2025 (career highs with 181 2/3 innings pitched and 190 strikeouts; a 3.49 FIP/2.87 ERA; a 19-12 team record in his starts). He's the most reliable rotation option at the moment. But he'll also be making $19 million in 2026, and he has a player option for 2027; another good year would set him up well in a free-agent SP class that is expected to be loaded. Mountcastle, 29 in February, is a natural first baseman, unlike the converted middle infielders who have occupied the position recently in San Diego. He's a power threat who's entering his walk year following an injury-marred 2025. He also should be eminently available -- the O's are stacked at first base and DH with Pete Alonso, Tyler O'Neill, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo. George, 19, reached High-A ball last year in his first pro season and slashed .291/.380/.392 in 21 games there. Pretty good work for a 16th-round draft pick out of high school. Gibson, 23, is a power arm who struggled in his first go-round at Triple-A. Two down, one to go. That leaves the least realistic trade of the lot, but it's a deal that still works because of the returns from the first two trades. TRADE No. 3: Padres and Tigers PADRES GET: Tarik Skubal PTBNL TIGERS GET: Mauricio Williams Santucci George Gibson LHP Kash Mayfield (Padres' No. 4 prospect) Why this deal makes sense for the Padres: Skubal, even as a rental, is all that needs to be said, but let's expand on that: The prospect cost would be minimal, for once. Mayfield is the lone San Diego farmhand going to the Tigers in this scenario. Preller would flip the young players and minor leaguers that the Mets and Orioles provided. Dealing a first-rounder like Mayfield would be difficult, but it would also be on-brand. The left-hander was babied a bit in his first pro campaign. He mostly pitched once a week and logged just 60 2/3 innings over 19 appearances (all starts) for Low-A Lake Elsinore. He missed three weeks in May and June with shoulder discomfort. But when he was on the mound, he was good: 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a 3.14 K:BB ratio and 0.3 home runs per nine (in the California League!). Detroit needs to be overwhelmed to move its Cy Young-winning ace. A half-dozen players of this caliber could maybe make Tigers president Scott Harris think for a second: a young starting infielder, two top-100 hitters and three potential frontline starters in exchange for Skubal's walk season. In truth, this is probably too much for one year of the southpaw, but we're in the business of excess in this exercise. In the end, the Padres' portion of all this would be Skubal, Senga and Mountcastle for Pivetta, Miller, Laureano and Mayfield. Preller could actually make the first two trades separately, give or take a few names, if the Orioles aren't content with just adding Shane Baz. We've written previously that he should be trying to backfill the farm system after dealing more than a dozen high-level prospects over the past three years. And, yes, if he's offering Miller in trades, he could just make him the centerpiece of a potential trade for Skubal. The counter is that, in this scenario, Preller would stay true to his all-in M.O. by obtaining an elite starter and rotation depth, but without gutting the farm once more. View the full article

Here are five Cubs prospects who are destined to break into the major leagues, with or without the team, in the coming year. Cory Sparks dives into the strengths, weaknesses, and fit of Jaxon Wiggins, Ethan Conrad, Jonathon Long, Grant Kipp, and James Triantos. View the full article

In part four of our countdown of the Royals’ assets, we will be talking about the 10th through 6th most valuable player assets. If you missed the previous three lists, they are listed here. Part 1: #21-25 Part 2: #16-20 Part 3: #11-15 10. David Shields, LHP Age: 19 Controlled Through 2031+ Shields may be the best young pitching prospect in the Royals system right now, impressive since he is still a teenager. In his first season as a professional, between the Complex League in Arizona and Single-A Columbia, he posted a 2.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 2.75 FIP in 75.2 IP. He also showed impeccable command with a 31.9% CSW, 28.5% K rate, and 27.5% K-BB%. The lefty out of Mt. Lebanon High School in Pittsburgh primarily pitched with the Fireflies in 2025 and earned Carolina League Pitcher of the Year honors by the end of the season. Even though he hasn't advanced beyond Single-A ball, Shields is seen as one of the top pitchers in the Royals' farm system and one of the more underrated pitchers in the Minor Leagues. Baseball America notes that Shields has the best control of any pitcher in the Kansas City system, and MLB Pipeline had this to say in their most recent scouting report of the 2024 second-round pick. While he's not a high-velocity arm now, many scouts note that he likely will gain more as he moves up and gets older. Shields has a top-of-the-rotation projection, which makes him a Top-10 asset for the Royals right now. 9. Kendry Chourio, RHP Age: 18 Controllable Through 2031+ Shields and Chourio both pitched in Single-A Columbia last year, but the Venezuelan-born righty slightly edges out the Connecticut lefty in terms of asset value. One reason is age: Chourio is nearly a full year younger than Shields. The second reason is stuff: Chourio sports a mid- to upper-90s fastball. That ability gives him a higher ceiling than Shields, though Chourio's command and control lag a little bit behind the Pittsburgh area product. Baseball America is also incredibly optimistic about Chourio's stuff and repertoire, especially for a pitcher without intimidating size. The 18-year-old Venezuelan played at three levels as a 17-year-old last season: the Dominican Summer League, the Complex League, and the Carolina League (Single-A). Across those three stops, Chourio accumulated 51.1 IP and posted a 3.51 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 2.68 FIP. He also sported a 30.8% CSW, 29,9% K rate, and 27.5% K-BB%, thus illustrating he has the command and swing-and-miss ability to thrive as a top-of-the-rotation starter at the Major League level. Chourio's more dynamic profile makes him a slightly more valuable asset than Shields. A standard comp for Chourio is Royals legend Yordano Ventura, and when watching him pitch on tape, it's easy to see why: his easy motion and knack for getting hitters to swing and miss. 8. Blake Mitchell, C Age: 21 Controllable Through 2031+ Mitchell is an interesting asset for the Royals because he's coming off a rough, injury-plagued 2025 season. After breaking a hamate bone in his hand in Spring Training, Mitchell struggled to get going with the River Bandits last season. In 255 plate appearances, he only hit .218, posted a 111 wRC+, and launched three home runs, scored 28 runs, and stole 12 bases. He's got an athletic profile for a catcher with strong HR-SB ability. That was especially evident in 2024 with the Fireflies, as he hit 18 home runs and stole 26 bases in 486 plate appearances. And this is despite his primary position being catcher. A positive development for Mitchell is that he's coming off a strong Arizona Fall League campaign, which I believe has helped him recoup some of his value. In 83 plate appearances, he slashed .218/.390/.320 with a homer and five RBI. He also made the AFL All-Star team and led the Surprise Saguaros to an AFL Championship. There's a lot of swing-and-miss in Mitchell's profile, as he sported a 66.7% contact rate last year in High-A Quad Cities. However, he has strong plate discipline and athleticism and has demonstrated significant improvement defensively since being drafted in 2023. He's ranked No. 62 overall by MLB Pipeline, making him one of the top assets in the Royals system without MLB experience. With catching a source of organizational depth for the Royals, Mitchell is likely a prospect the Royals are floating in many trade talks this offseason. 7. Noah Cameron, LHP Age: 26 Controllable Through 2031 Cameron had a renaissance last year in his MLB rookie debut. The lefty out of St. Joseph, Missouri, posted a 2.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 24 starts and 138.1 IP. His FIP was a little high at 4.18, and his fWAR wasn't as impressive at 1.8. Nonetheless, Cameron posted a rookie debut to remember, which also included him finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The Royals have a ton of control over Cameron. He won't be eligible for arbitration until 2029 and won't be a free agent until 2032. That makes him a valuable asset, even if he may profile more as an end-of-the-rotation arm long term. While his K/BB ratio was strong at 2.65, his K rate was only 20.5%, his K-BB% was 12.8%, and CSW was 26.9%. Those are good numbers, especially for a starter. However, they are not elite, which could be why his name is not generating a ton of interest around the league in trade talks this offseason. Still, with excellent command, poise, and stability, Cameron has significant value to this Royals organization internally. He showed that he could take the mound and be competitive in many starts, as illustrated by his 10 quality starts last season. He also stayed healthy, which was a concern when he was initially drafted in the seventh round in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Central Arkansas. He had Tommy John surgery in college, but thankfully, he hasn't had any injury issues as a professional, which only adds to his long-term value to this Royals organization. 6. Kris Bubic, LHP Age: 28 Controllable Through 2026 Bubic will be a free agent after this season, which prevents him from ranking any higher than sixth. That said, he's one of the most talented pitchers on the Royals roster, and he illustrated last year that he could be a Cy Young candidate when healthy. After primarily pitching in the bullpen in 2024 (due to recovery from Tommy John in 2023 and the Royals' desire to "ease him" back to the mound), Bubic made 20 starts and pitched 116.1 innings last season. In that sample, he accumulated 11 quality starts, posted a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 2.89 FIP. He also sported a 24.4% K rate, a 16.2% K-BB%, and 30.1% CSW. Of Royals starting pitchers with 10 or more IP, only Cole Ragans posted a better CSW. As a result of these solid metrics, Bubic earned his first All-Star appearance in 2025. Unfortunately, injury issues came up in the second half, as a shoulder injury (similar to Ragans') shut him down for the remainder of the season. That said, Ragans' positive recovery should be an encouraging sign for Bubic and his health outlook for 2026. While Cameron holds more value to the Royals internally than with other clubs on the trade market, the inverse may be true for Bubic. It seems like Bubic may be Kansas City's best "realistic" trade asset right now. JJ Picollo has said they are not interested in trading away Ragans, Michael Wacha, or Seth Lugo. Furthermore, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that the Royals remain "open" to trading Bubic, a sign that they're almost preparing to part ways with him should the right offer come along this offseason. It seems like Bubic could be the key to a trade involving Jarren Duran of the Red Sox or Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. That kind of trade value is what makes him such an essential asset in the Royals organization, even though he will be eligible for free agency next offseason. View the full article

Dansby Swanson had a strong 2025 season. He only batted .244/.300/.417, with that middle number—the most important one, his on-base percentage—sagging alarmingly, but he cracked 24 home runs, stole 20 bases and made good adjustments, even as he endured some wretched luck and sequencing. His DRC+, according to Baseball Prospectus, was 113, marking him as well above average by process, even if his results were average or worse. That was the best DRC+ of his Cubs tenure, and an especially important bump from the 104 he posted in 2024. As he ages, Swanson continues a negotiation with his own skill set and with opposing pitchers—though the latter, of course, is a highly adversarial one, so it can't be as calm or simple as the one with himself. He'll turn 32 in February, and he's made significant adjustments to deal with the way his athletic baseline has changed and with things like the lingering core muscle injuries through which he played in 2024. Those adjustments paid off in 2025, in the form of more hard-hit balls, fewer grounders, and a stronger tendency to pull the ball in the air—all of which could (and perhaps even should) have led to more increased production than we really saw. To see both what a material and valuable change he made and why it might not be sufficient, consider these charts of Swanson's swing rate by pitch location for both 2024 and 2025. Swanson shifted his sights slightly upward in 2025, but only slightly. The focal point of his approach was still right around the same place it was last year, just above the belt and just on the inside half of the plate. However, he swung more almost throughout his swing range than he had the year before. He's not a guy who will get fooled badly and chase wildly, far outside the zone. He will, however, slightly expand, and he will try to cover the whole zone. Using Statcast's Attack Zone breakdown tells the story. Here are Swanson's swing rate rankings among hitters with a substantial number of pitches seen in each Attack Zone category, for 2025: Heart of Zone: 11th of 161 Shadow (Edges): 85th of 282 Chase and Waste (far out of the zone): 144th of 185 He leaned more into those tendencies in 2025 than he had the year before. That was partially because he was healthier than in 2024, and felt better swinging the bat, but it was also partially because his skills are evolving (and, to a mild extent, eroding). Swanson didn't feel like he could be as discerning; he didn't want to end up in unduly deep counts or miss his pitch to hit when it came. According to SEAGER, a system devised by Robert Orr (then of Baseball Prospectus) to assess a hitter's ability to balance selectivity and aggressiveness, Swanson got much better at that skill in 2025. SEAGER is made up of two components: Selectivity: the percentage of a hitter's good swing decisions (those with positive expected value based on the pitch's location) that took the form of good takes on bad pitches to hit Hittable Pitch Take Rate: the percentage of a hitter's takes (all pitches on which they didn't swing) that came on pitches with positive expected value for swings—thereby making them bad takes. Somewhat counterintuitively (if you just glance at the heat maps above), Swanson's selectivity rating changed very little from 2024 to 2025. In both years, just under half his good swing decisions were takes on bad pitches. His SEAGER shot up, though, because his take rate on pitches begging to be hit went down sharply, from 33.3% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025. He didn't let good pitches go by nearly as often. This is why he found the gap in left-center field more often, especially later in the season. It's a big part of his improved contact profile. However, Swanson will have to adjust again in 2026, in multiple facets. Unfortunately, though those tweaks were admirable responses to the challenges of hitting well as one ages, new challenges are right around the corner, and these tweaks won't be enough to keep him a competent hitter. He's never been good at making contact on swings outside the zone, and in 2025, that figure plummeted to 44.3%, the worst mark of his career. Without a change in approach, that will continue to get worse; out-of-zone contact has a steep aging curve. So does bat speed, once a hitter turns 32. Swanson is at what the broader population experiences as a major inflection point for the loss of swing speed, so he's going to struggle to generate the same power we saw in 2025 unless he can tighten up his zone and lock in on pitches he can drive. Getting more aggressive was key to his improvements this year, but next year, both the alarming share of those extra swings that already came up empty and the fact that a slower stick is likely to reduce his margin for error mean he will need to get more patient, instead. Hitters decline at Swanson's age. It's a fact of life, in an extremely difficult game played at an extraordinary level of sheer athleticism. The Cubs, however, can ill afford to have Swanson take a step back. They need every bit of the production they got from him in 2025, for at least one more season. They can't offer him a move off shortstop to make maintaining his offense easier, at least until 2027. They can't reduce his workload much in terms of games played or started. They need Swanson to keep delivering big hits and tough at-bats, even though he's reached the stage of his career where he needs to oscillate increasingly widely and make bigger and bigger changes each year, just to tread water at the dish. He's between a rock and a hard cutter on the hands, and next season will be an exercise in very difficult extrication. View the full article

On Friday, the Minnesota Twins officially announced their first substantial acquisition of the offseason, signing Josh Bell to a one-year, $7 million contract. The switch-hitting veteran is slated to step in as the club’s primary first baseman while also mixing in at designated hitter. Despite netting a combined -13 Outs Above Average (OAA) at first base the past two seasons, the 33-year-old’s defensive prowess shouldn’t be a meaningful concern for those who follow the club, evidenced by the Twins' ability to maximize the positioning of their first basemen. Still, with Bell slated to start a meaningful number of games at designated hitter (leaving first base open) and the club not yet rostering a viable backup for the oft-injured Royce Lewis at third base, the Twins would be wise to actively pursue a player who could fill that void. Enter Mark Vientos. Coming off a breakout 2024 campaign wherein the then-24-year-old hit .266/.322/.516 with 27 home runs and a 132 wRC+ over 454 plate appearances, Vientos regressed last season, slashing .233/.289/.413 with 17 home runs and a below-league-average 97 wRC+. Sporting plus power with a high swing-and-miss profile, the now-26-year-old is one of the more volatile and streaky hitters in baseball. Due to his extreme fluctuation in performance (and the club’s overall dissatisfaction with its position player core), New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns appears to be making Vientos available in trade talks, signaling the club could soon move on from the once highly-touted corner infielder. Vientos is a poor defensive third baseman, evidenced by his netting -7 OAA at the position last season. However, he has been serviceable at first base, posting -1 OAA over 112 innings at the position in his four-season career. Barring injury, Lewis (a plus defensive third baseman) is slated to function as Minnesota’s everyday third baseman, meaning Minnesota could shield Vientos from the position. Yet, if Lewis were to miss extended time, Vientos could step in as his primary replacement, minimizing the offense lost in Lewis’s absence. At this point in their respective careers, Vientos is a better defensive first baseman than Bell, meaning Vientos could slot in as the club’s primary option at the position while Bell inhabits a more traditional designated hitter role. However, given Bell’s switch-hitting profile and Vientos’s platoon-proof nature, the two could function as an interchangeable first base and designated hitter tandem. 50961094-a023fa2a-ecad099a-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Despite a poor 2025 campaign from Vientos, Minnesota would still need to part ways with considerable prospect capital or MLB-ready assets to acquire the power-hitting right-handed bat’s services. New York is in dire need of MLB-ready starting pitching talent. Interestingly, that is the Twins' greatest area of strength and depth. Twins decision-makers could reasonably send veteran starting pitcher Bailey Ober to the Mets for Vientos and a mid-tier prospect, like Boston Baro or Heriberto Rincon. If New York were more interested in long-term upside and team control, a trade package headlined by Simeon Woods Richardson for Vientos and a mid-tier prospect could also make sense. Vientos is one of the more popular bounce-back candidates in baseball next season who perfectly fits Minnesota’s need of a right-handed hitting power bat who can play both corner infield positions while mixing in at designated hitter. He is also pre-arbitration and under team control until 2029, making him an even more enticing trade target for the salary-restricted Twins. As mentioned earlier, Minnesota could also afford to part with one of its mid-to-late-rotation arms to acquire Vientos, further supporting the deal's efficacy. A deal for Vientos likely wouldn’t happen before the New Year. Yet, the Mets' young corner infielder could soon get dealt, with Minnesota arguably being the most plausible destination. View the full article

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been oddly busy this winter. They haven't yet made the kind of financial splash that would grab attention and fuel friendlier narratives, but as Brewers fans know, it doesn't always take a crowd-pleasingly spendy move to win games. Pittsburgh has already traded right-handed starter Johan Oviedo to Boston, to snare outfield prospect Jhostynxon García, and sent young starter Mike Burrows to the Astros in a three-team trade that brought them three helpful players: slugging second baseman Brandon Lowe, slap-hitting outfielder Jake Mangum and hard-throwing reliever Mason Montgomery. They've also signed reliever Gregory Soto, to bolster their bullpen. If you believe in the likelihood of a rebound from outfielders Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds (or are bullish on the rotation even beyond Paul Skenes), you can start to squint your way to expecting competitiveness for the 2026 Pirates. This team is going to make an earnest (if untenably stingy) effort to upset and unseat the Brewers, and even if you don't think they're good enough to do so, their moving and shaking is affecting how the three-time defending NL Central champions are going about their business. By trading Oviedo to the Red Sox and Burrows to the Astros, the Pirates have diluted and softened the demand for Freddy Peralta in trades. Their acquisition of Lowe gives them a fairly dangerous trio of lefty bats, with Cruz and Spencer Horwitz joining their new teammate to pose a threat. Beating next year's Pirates will be harder than beating any recent year's version, even when it's non-Skenes starting hurlers' turns. An upstart Pittsburgh club also threatens to raise the floor for the whole division and make it harder to get to a Wild Card-worthy win total, should another team knock Milwaukee from its perch. So far, it's mostly felt like the odds of a Peralta trade were rising steadily, all winter. That might need to change, though, if the Brewers perform ongoing projections and realize their edge (not only over the Cubs, Reds and Pirates, but over the other contenders for Wild Card berths and seeding in the NL) is shrinking more than expected. The Cardinals have already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras, and they're likely to ship out Brendan Donovan. They're only taking in players who look like solid potential trade chips, come July. There will be some free wins scattered around the schedule next year, but it will feel like fewer than in the recent past. The Brewers have a mandate to pursue a championship in 2026. Doing that is getting harder, so the Crew might need to make new plans that involve more aggressive additions or fewer subtractions. The Pirates don't feel like an especially real threat to win the division, but that doesn't mean their frisky offseason is unimportant. View the full article

In speaking with reporters at the Winter Meetings last week, including Diamond Centric's own John Bonnes, Blue Jays manager John Schneider was asked about the Manager of the Year award. He offered a very typical Schneider response (quoted below) that was equal parts self-deprecating, boastful of his team, and reflective of his players and position. It’s the kind of answer you would expect from him and a perfect response from a PR perspective. It would be wildly out of character for him to come out and say, ‘Y’know what? I did deserve that award, and I was screwed by the BBWAA!’ That’s where I come in. John Schneider deserved that reward and was screwed by those who voted on it! In 2025, Schneider made some decisions that left me scratching my head at the best of times and yelling obscenities at my TV at the worst of times. One example, the one I probably had the biggest problem with at the time, was a series of pitching decisions down the stretch that forced the Jays into a bullpen day, with the division tied and Toronto (likely) needing to win out over the final four games of the season. As was the case for most of the season, the decision broke Schneider’s way, and the Blue Jays would win the game behind Louis Varland, Eric Lauer and Yariel Rodríguez’s perfect opening six innings. The plays often went Schneider’s way – enough so that the Jays finished as the best team in the American League. Over the course of the season, it became clear that the trust Schneider had in his players was reflected in the trust they had in him. He worked his way up through the levels of Toronto's system on the managing side, alongside many of the players that now make up his roster. In 2024, the Jays finished 20 games back of the division lead; in 2025, they won 20 more games than the year before. That kind of improvement is the type of thing that often swings voters when deciding on the Manager of the Year. Of course, much like in the playoffs, Schneider fell just short. Stephen Vogt is, by all accounts, a very good manager, and I can’t say that I watched enough Cleveland Guardians games to be fluent in his play-to-play decision-making, but I can certainly go through the kind of things that have been brought up as reasons to swing a vote his way rather than Schneider’s. The comeback: Vogt’s Guardians made the biggest comeback in the modern era, erasing a 15.5-game deficit from early July and an 11-game deficit in September alone. A historic comeback, no doubt, but Vogt wasn’t a mid-season replacement – he was the manager that led them to that deficit too. If you want to give him credit for the comeback, he’s gotta wear the blame for having them in that position. Cleveland went 20-7 in September, but if Detroit doesn’t have an equally (un)impressive collapse (7-17), putting up the worst record in the majors outside of Colorado, the comeback doesn’t happen. The Jays, meanwhile, don’t have an impressive comeback to point to. All they did was lead their division from the start of July through to the end of the season. Overcoming adversity: Vogt lost Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz in July amid a gambling scandal. Losing your closer and a starter unexpectedly is always going to be tough. But, managing gaps in your lineups from a player(s) absence is part of the game and the manager's job. Giving Vogt extra credit for the scandalous nature of two of those absences is disingenuous. Again, as with the comeback, Vogt was the manager when the scandal was happening, and, if we want to be hyperbolic, he allowed it to happen. If we look at it as purely a loss of players, the Jays had 21 players miss time to injury through the season, and the Guardians only had 16. Advantage Schneider. Payroll: The Jays had the fifth-highest payroll in the majors, while Vogt made do with the 25th-ranked payroll. On the face of it, this one seems more skewed in Cleveland’s favour. Historically, the Manager of the Year has gone to a team with a payroll outside of the top third of the league. To a degree, that makes sense. The less money a team has to spend, the more impact the manager needs to have (in theory). Of course, the disparity also has a lot to do with where the teams play; the AL East and Central are in different financial divisions. The East was home to the third (NYY), fifth (TOR) and 12th (BOS) highest payrolls in the league last season. The highest payroll in the Central, meanwhile (the Tigers’ $179M, 17th overall), would’ve ranked fifth in the East, ahead of only the stadium-less Tampa Bay Rays. Holding the Jays' payroll against Schneider while ignoring divisional competition is a cop out. The MotY is typically awarded to the skipper of the team that most outperformed its pre-season projections. Steering a Jays team that finished 20 games back of the division in 2024 and had the best record in the AL in 2025, you'd think Schneider would be a shoo-in for the award on this criterion. Both the Jays and Guardians were projected to be bubble playoff teams in the AL. MLB.com had us in the fourth tier of playoff hopefuls in their season primer. The Guardians were in the fifth tier. Regular season award votes are cast before the playoffs, so the Jays' run to the World Series vs. the Guardians’ Wild Card appearance doesn’t skew things, but ‘overcoming the odds’ means different things between the two divisions. We’re over 1,000 words in at this point, and this is where I’d normally wrap up with something like “The voters may have gotten this wrong, but everyone in Toronto can agree we’ve got the best manager in the league.” Not everyone in Toronto does agree, however, and one of those people in particular had an impact on the outcome. The AL MotY voting panel is made up of two writers representing the city (or state) of each team in the league. Both Cleveland voters had Vogt first. Schneider also had to settle for down-ballot votes from the Boston, New York and Tampa Bay writers. One Tampa ballot left Schneider off completely – rivalries run deep. Vogt, by contrast, split votes among writers from Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota and Chicago (both Chicago voters had Dan Wilson first and split Vogt/Schneider in the second and third spots). Toronto Sun writer Rob Longley had Schneider #1, Vogt #2. The other Toronto writer was Rosie DiManno of the Toronto Star. She went with Vogt. DiManno’s co-worker at the Star, Mike Wilner, talked about the vote on his Deep Left Field podcast. While DiManno declined to appear and discuss her vote, she did share with Wilner her reasoning. We’ve already covered what I think about the gambling suspensions and the Guardians' comeback. John Schneider didn’t lose the award by one vote, so it’s a bit of a moot point, but to say that he didn’t have anything to do with the positive atmosphere in the Jays' clubhouse seems insane to me. Even if he only contributed by seeing a good thing happening and staying out of the way (something previous managers may have struggled with), he deserves credit for that. He said it himself: Award or not, John Schneider managed the team of the year. View the full article

East Carolina University selected Miami Marlins manager Clayton McCullough to be their fall 2025 commencement speaker. True to his nature, McCullough was self-deprecating while delivering his 11-minute address at ECU's Minges Coliseum on Friday. “ECU took a chance on me—mostly because the baseball team needed a catcher,” he said. “Coach Keith LeClair believed in me when honestly I didn’t believe much in myself.” He brought up his poor grades and the fact that he didn't finish his degree until age 26 after his professional playing career ended. "One of (the Marlins') core philosophies is simple: Development doesn’t stop in the major leagues,” McCullough explained. “Every Marlins player, no matter how experienced or talented, is on an individual path to be their best version.” “Today, you close one chapter. Tomorrow, a new one begins. You won’t have it all figured out. That’s OK— I certainly didn’t,” he added. “But if you commit to growth, find people who can show you the way, and keep showing up and getting better, I promise you this: Your future can exceed even your own expectations. Class of 2025, welcome to the big leagues.” You can watch McCullough's full speech below beginning at the 50-minute mark. On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4 with a walk. His team, Gigantes del Cibao, needs one more win to clinch a LIDOM postseason berth. In Puerto Rico, Jacob Berry went 1-for-4 with a walk and Chris Arroyo went 0-for-2. Berry's 18-game on-base streak is the longest active streak in the league. In Venezuela, Jesús Bastidas went 3-for-6 and Riskiel Tineo had his 11th consecutive scoreless relief appearance. Marlins Opening Day is only 95 days away. 🔷 The Marlins released outfielder Danny González. The right-handed hitter signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2022 for $150,000. He never advanced beyond rookie ball despite half-decent offensive numbers. In 101 career minor league games, González slashed .223/.335/.348 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases. 🔷 Sean McCormack explained how Robby Snelling has closed the gap with Thomas White for the distinction of Marlins top pitching prospect. 🔷 Former Marlins rehabilitation pitching coach Jeff Schwarz has sued the Marlins for age discrimination. 🔷 Xavier Edwards hosted his eighth annual XE9 baseball skills camp. Through the years, the event has grown from 18 to more than 200 campers. Marlins teammates Anthony Bender, Griffin Conine, Tyler Phillips and Braxton Garrett were among the many guest instructors with MLB experience. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, to everybody's surprise, Japanese superstar Munetaka Murakami signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. When he was posted for MLB teams earlier this offseason, Murakami was widely projected to receive at least twice as much guaranteed money. Instead, the lefty slugger has positioned himself to re-enter free agency entering his age-28 season. The St. Louis Cardinals traded Willson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. View the full article

Jeff Passan of ESPN just broke the news that the Red Sox are trading for veteran slugger and first baseman Willson Contreras. In return, a package led by prospect Hunter Dobbins is on its way to St Louis. Contreras was 33 years old in the 2025 season with the Cardinals. He joined St. Louis on a five-year, $87.5 million free-agent deal before the 2023 season, and the contract includes a 2028 club option. He is under contract through 2027, with the option to extend through 2028 if exercised. While he is no longer considered a catcher, Contreras has continued to provide above-average offense, making his transition to first base rather seamless. In 2024, he appeared in 84 games and logged 358 plate appearances, hitting 15 home runs with a .262/.380/.468 line, a .370 wOBA, and a 141 wRC+, along with a 12.6% BB% and 26.8% K% and a 2.7 FanGraphs WAR. In 2025, he played 135 games with 563 plate appearances, posting 20 home runs and a .257/.344/.447 line, a .344 wOBA, and a 124 wRC+, with a 7.8% BB% and 25.2% K%, finishing at 2.8 fWAR. The remaining pieces going to St. Louis have not yet been announced. View the full article

Around this time, many projection systems begin churning out their latest models for the upcoming season. Steamer tends to be the earliest to go public, which provides a lot of spark and debate during this busy winter "hot stove" season. Here is a description of Steamer projections, including their history and how they are calculated both before and during the season. This will be a two-part series. In part one, I will look at five hitters who have noteworthy Steamer projections for 2026. In part two, I will look at five pitchers. I have included a table below of Steamer projections for Royals players who are projected to accumulate 10 or more plate appearances in 2026 (ranked by fWAR). That gives readers who may want to see how others are doing a glimpse of how others are doing beyond the five I will analyze in this post. Remember, the projections listed capture their 80th percentile projection. Bobby Witt Jr. will likely have more than 634 plate appearances next year. The same is true for Salvador Perez and 580 plate appearances. Thus, when looking at these, it's essential to approach these projections as a "modest estimate", not necessarily as gospel. With that said, let's look at five Royals hitters who could make a significant impact on the Royals lineup in 2026, based on their intriguing Steamer projections. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B In 563 projected plate appearances: 24 HR, 72 R, 81 RBI, .266 AVG, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR The Royals have extended Witt and Maikel Garcia to solidify the left side of their infield until at least 2030. However, they have been a bit quieter about their long-term plans with Pasquantino, who's coming off a 32-HR, 113-RBI season, both career highs. The Pasquatch has struggled to stay healthy since debuting in 2022. However, he trended positively in terms of playing time last year, playing in 160 games and collecting 682 plate appearances. By avoiding the IL, Pasquantino was finally able to maximize his production, leading the Royals in home runs and RBI. Steamer seems optimistic that Pasquantino will continue to mash in the Royals' lineup in 2026. Pasquantino is projected to hit 24 HR, the third-highest projection for next year (behind only Witt's 26 and Perez's 25). His 120 wRC+ is the second-highest projection behind Witt's 133. Lastly, Steamer projects a positive boost in the BB/K ratio to 0.59. That's 13 points better than his ratio a season ago. The primary issue with Pasquantino is that his defense weighs him down. Last year, he posted a -16.9 Def (defensive runs above average), which contributed to his fWAR of only 1.5. Steamer projects a similar defensive outlook, with a -11.6 Def for 2026. Thus, he is projected to produce a Steamer under two, despite his optimistic offensive outlook. Despite the defensive issues, the Royals' primary first baseman should continue to be a force in the Royals' lineup, and he could be Kansas City's next extension candidate after the conclusion of this season, especially if he matches or surpasses his Steamer projections. Jonathan India, 2B In 500 plate appearances: 11 HR, 57 R, 47 RBI, 6 SB, .247 AVG, .320 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR It was a nightmare season for India in Kansas City last year. In 567 plate appearances, the former Reds second baseman hit .233 with an 89 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR. Those were career-worst marks in those three categories. To make matters worse, he lost his spot as the Royals' leadoff hitter after the Trade Deadline, and he was seen as a non-tender candidate this offseason. Kansas City opted to bring India back for at least one more year, agreeing to an $8 million deal for this season. While many Royals fans are not optimistic about his outlook, Steamer paints a rosier picture for 2026. Steamer projects India sees a bit of a power and speed boost for 2026, with 11 home runs (two more than last year) and six stolen bases (none in the previous season). Steamer also expects India to see some batted-ball correction, with a 14-point increase in batting average. However, the most encouraging aspect of India's projection profile is that his trademark plate discipline shouldn't see regression. Steamer projects a 10.3% walk rate and 0.54 BB/K ratio, both improvements from a year ago (9.5% walk rate; 0.51 BB/K ratio). It seems like manager Matt Quatraro has a better sense of India's talents and skills, and thus, it's unlikely that the 29-year-old second baseman will move around the field like a year ago. That should help his defensive production, though it's unlikely that India will ever be a solid defensive player. Steamer projects a -6.1 Def for 2026, which isn't good, but is 5.7 points better than last season. The Royals do not need India to be an All-Star or an impact hitter at the top of the batting order. However, if he can provide a disciplined approach and some occasional pop in the 6th-7th hole in the batting order, that should be more than enough to help improve a Royals lineup that struggled with consistency in 2025. Jac Caglianone, RF In 418 plate appearances: 17 HR, 51 R, 56 RBI, 2 SB, .255 AVG, .331 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR Speaking of brutal seasons, no Royals position player had it worse than Caglianone, who struggled in his transition to the Major League level last year. In 232 plate appearances, Caglianone hit .157 with a 46 wRC+ and accumulated a -1.6 fWAR, the worst mark of Royals players a season ago. Hence, it is easy for many Royals fans to lose faith in Caglianone after he received such massive hype a season ago upon his debut. Steamer projections illustrate to Royals fans, however, that they should not lose faith in Caglianone and his potential impact in 2026. Caglianone is projected to hit 17 home runs and post a .331 wOBA and 109 wRC+, both massive improvements from a season ago. The defense is still a question mark, as Steamer projected Caglianone to produce a -6.6 Def in the outfield. That said, Caglianone's value and impact are needed by the Royals at the plate, not in the field. Kansas City can live with subpar defense if he can hit 20 or more home runs a season. His projected plate appearance numbers are low, so it's likely that Caglianone could surpass 17 home runs and hit 20 to 25 home runs if he receives 500 or more plate appearances. His .195 projected ISO is a 57-point increase from his rookie year, and he has the potential to live up to that ISO number or more, based on his substantial exit velocity and barrel metrics from a season ago. Will Caglianone be able to launch the ball enough to translate his batted-ball quality and bat speed into production in 2026? Steamer seems to think so. Carter Jensen, C In 277 plate appearances: 9 HR, 33 R, 32 RBI, 3 SB, .246 AVG, .323 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR While Caglianone failed to live up to rookie expectations in 2025, the opposite was true for Jensen, a local product who attended Park Hill High School in the northern KC metro area. A September call-up when rosters expanded, Jensen hit .300 with a 159 wRC+ and sported a 0.7 fWAR in 69 plate appearances. He also showed excellent batted-ball ability as well as plate discipline in his small MLB sample, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary from a season ago. The hype for Jensen in 2026 is real, and it seems like JJ Picollo and Quatraro are on board to make sure Jensen eases the catching load for Perez, much like Freddy Fermin did in 2024 and 2025 before the Royals backup catcher was traded to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. While Royals fans should be encouraged by Jensen's outlook, Steamer projects a bit of a regression, which makes sense over a larger sample. In 277 projected plate appearances, Steamer expects Jensen to hit .246 with nine home runs and 32 RBI. They also project him to post a .323 wOBA and 104 wRC+. For context, those marks are expected to be better than Perez's (.318 wOBA; 101 wRC+) next year. Of course, this is a pretty modest projection, and simply viewing Jensen as solely a backup catcher. I think Jensen is due for more designated hitter plate appearances, especially if he can get off to a hot start to the season. Nonetheless, Steamer is warning Royals fans who think Jensen is due for 20 to 30 home runs next year to perhaps cool their jets a bit (for now). Lane Thomas, OF In 379 plate appearances: 11 HR, 45 R, 41 RBI, 13 SB, .236 AVG, .306 wOBA, 92 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR The Royals seem to be aiming to make one more big move, whether it's Boston's Jarren Duran or St. Louis' Brendan Donovan. That should keep Thomas regulated to a fourth-outfielder role, who may get semi-regular time if he can get on a hot streak at the plate. Steamer is a bit conflicted about Thomas, who posted a 48 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR in an injury-plagued campaign in Cleveland last year. On one end, they are optimistic about his home run (11) and stolen base (13) production in a modest sample (379 plate appearances). Steamer also expects a power boost with a .158 ISO, a 46-point increase from a season ago, and only a five-point difference from 2024 when he played for the Nationals and Guardians. Thomas' plate discipline is projected to be around where it was last year. His 25.5% K rate is expected to be a 5.5% improvement, but his 0.32 BB/K ratio is expected to match his season-ago rate. The defense also doesn't project well, as his Steamer projects him to produce a -4.5 Def. That's a big reason why his fWAR is expected to hover under one next year. Still, for a fourth outfielder, this isn't a bad profile for the Royals to have. His wRC+ is projected to be better than Michael Massey's (89), John Rave's (84), and Tyler Tolbert's (66). Thus, Thomas should raise the floor of a Royals lineup that struggled to find right-handed production from the outfield last year. View the full article

When selecting his inaugural coaching staff, Craig Stammen mixed a good chunk of the old group with a handful of newcomers. The new San Diego Padres manager finalized his 18-member coaching staff, which was announced on Dec. 17. Stammen replaced Mike Shildt, who resigned immediately after the season with two years left on his contract. Shildt has since landed a job in the Baltimore Orioles' organization. The former Friars skipper led the Padres to two playoff appearances and had a 16-member staff in 2025. Stammen, a former MLB reliever including six years with the Padres, has no previous managerial experience, but has been in the organization for 10 years, including in a variety of baseball operations roles since his playing days came to an end. While it was known that Ruben Niebla, a finalist for the job Stammen got, was returning for his fifth season as the Padres' pitching coach, he received the additional title of associate manager. Interestingly, Stammen also named a bench coach from outside the building. That job went to Randy Knorr, a former MLB catcher who had a variety of roles, including minor-league manager, in the Washington Nationals' organization since 2008 until being let go after the 2025 season. The other key hire is Steven Souza Jr. as hitting coach. Souza was an MLB outfielder who retired during the 2022 season. This is his first coaching role, although he did spend 2025 as a special assistant with the Tampa Bay Rays. Helping Souza with will be Mike McCoy and Pat O'Sullivan, who both return as assistant hitting coaches. Raul Padron will be the hitting instructor. Ben Fritz is back as bullpen coach, as is Chris Apecechea as assistant pitching coach and Peter Summerville as game planning and pitching strategist. Herberto Andrade sticks around as the bullpen catcher and assistant coach. Kevin Plawecki joins the staff as the catching coach. In the coaching boxes, Bob Henley takes over at third base and David Macias at first base, also adding outfield and baserunning instructor duties to his résumé. Vinny Lopez will also be an outfield and baserunning instructor. as well as field coordinator. Nick Punto is also a new addition, becoming the infield coach, with Ryan Goins joining as infield instructor. Allen Craig and A.J. Ellis will be special assistants to the major-league staff and baseball operations. View the full article

When selecting his inaugural coaching staff, Craig Stammen mixed a good chunk of the old group with a handful of newcomers. The new San Diego Padres manager finalized his 18-member coaching staff, which was announced on Dec. 17. Stammen replaced Mike Shildt, who resigned immediately after the season with two years left on his contract. Shildt has since landed a job in the Baltimore Orioles' organization. The former Friars skipper led the Padres to two playoff appearances and had a 16-member staff in 2025. Stammen, a former MLB reliever including six years with the Padres, has no previous managerial experience, but has been in the organization for 10 years, including in a variety of baseball operations roles since his playing days came to an end. While it was known that Ruben Niebla, a finalist for the job Stammen got, was returning for his fifth season as the Padres' pitching coach, he received the additional title of associate manager. Interestingly, Stammen also named a bench coach from outside the building. That job went to Randy Knorr, a former MLB catcher who had a variety of roles, including minor-league manager, in the Washington Nationals' organization since 2008 until being let go after the 2025 season. The other key hire is Steven Souza Jr. as hitting coach. Souza was an MLB outfielder who retired during the 2022 season. This is his first coaching role, although he did spend 2025 as a special assistant with the Tampa Bay Rays. Helping Souza with will be Mike McCoy and Pat O'Sullivan, who both return as assistant hitting coaches. Raul Padron will be the hitting instructor. Ben Fritz is back as bullpen coach, as is Chris Apecechea as assistant pitching coach and Peter Summerville as game planning and pitching strategist. Herberto Andrade sticks around as the bullpen catcher and assistant coach. Kevin Plawecki joins the staff as the catching coach. In the coaching boxes, Bob Henley takes over at third base and David Macias at first base, also adding outfield and baserunning instructor duties to his résumé. Vinny Lopez will also be an outfield and baserunning instructor. as well as field coordinator. Nick Punto is also a new addition, becoming the infield coach, with Ryan Goins joining as infield instructor. Allen Craig and A.J. Ellis will be special assistants to the major-league staff and baseball operations. View the full article

Tom Pohlad, in his introductory presser, told the media that he wants fans to “believe [he’s] committed to a championship-caliber investment and team”, that he thinks the Twins are “within reach of winning a division title this year”, and that he’s “not a half-measure guy.” At the same time, he also acknowledged that the Twins are “laying the foundation for ultimately what [they] hope will be a nucleus that can be a championship-caliber team and that warrants a championship-level investment.” Those statements are somewhat at odds, and the why behind it makes sense. Based on the status of the current roster and number of top prospects in the upper minors, things are complicated to say the least. How do the Twins continue to add to the roster without blocking the future of the team? Where can they actually make significant upgrades without putting another Carlos Correa-sized impediment in their ability to field a complete roster? Is it even possible to do these things, at this point in time? Let’s start by looking at the areas of need, and I’ll discuss the challenges with upgrading at the position. I see three. Shortstop, if you aren’t a believer in Brooks Lee. Another big bat, preferably one who hits right-handed, if you can find a position for them. Bullpen. So much bullpen. Shortstop Do you believe that some combination of Lee, Ryan Kreidler, and Ryan Fitzgerald can, in the aggregate, be even average both at the plate and in the field? It seems like a stretch. The latter two are fringy guys, at best. Lee has looked overmatched throughout his young career and as it stands, may be better suited to a part-time utility role unless he can make some real adjustments to his approach. However, in order to justify moving a former top prospect off the spot, the Twins would need a clear upgrade. Signing someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa could make sense. It would probably take a two-year deal, and I imagine it would take around $15 million deal to sign him. That’s affordable, but it’s tough to imagine the Twins being this quick to relegate Lee to a utility role. And, Kaelen Culpepper could be ready for his first call-up this summer. So, it seems unlikely the Twins would see upgrading shortstop as a good investment. Big Bat The Twins need consistent offense, and need it badly. However, finding a spot to play another bat would be easier said than done, at least without sacrificing playing time for someone else that deserves or needs it. All of Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, and Lee will play most days. Positionally, center field is taken. The corner outfield spots have a veritable logjam already, between Larnach, Alan Roden, James Outman, Austin Martin, and Wallner. Plus, both Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are basically ready for the majors, with Gabriel Gonzalez on their heels. First base is taken, now, with the additional of Bell. Wallner’s best position is DH, and playing him as the strong-sided platoon, at the least, seems a no-brainer. Catcher is covered. You probably aren’t moving Lewis off third. Keaschall is at second, unless you move him to the outfield and make that logjam even worse. We covered shortstop already. So, again, where do you put another big bat? Unless you are trading multiple hitters, including some that are likely part of the future, there just doesn't seem to be room for anything more than a right handed platoon first baseman or DH. Bullpen Here we go. Finally. The easiest, most natural spot to upgrade from the current options. As Nick Nelson wrote, aside from Cole Sands, Justin Topa, and Kody Funderburk, there’s a ton of question marks. But, maybe fewer than you would think. The Twins didn’t trade for Eric Orze to not have him on their roster. Pierson Ohl and Travis Adams didn’t look amazing in their limited outings down the stretch last season, but neither figure to be starters for the Twins, and it makes sense to give both another season in the pen to see what they are capable of. That means at least five or six spots, out of eight, are written in at least pencil. “Great”, you might be thinking. “Sign two stud relievers!” On paper, that makes perfect sense. After all, the Twins have exactly zero current relievers who should get the eighth or ninth innings in close games with any regularity. Except. Have you looked at their starting pitching depth? As it stands, all of Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, and Andrew Morris will be competing for the fifth starter gig; one will be without a rotation spot even in Triple-A. That’s not to mention Marco Raya, who, as of now, is still a starter. It’s not including C.J. Culpepper or Ryan Gallagher, both of whom should be ready for a promotion to Saint Paul at some point in 2026. One also shouldn’t fully write off question marks like Matt Canterino or Cory Lewis. That’s so, so many pitching prospects. Realistically, four or five of those guys will end up needing to convert to relief. It’s no stretch to think that, say, Prielipp, Festa, and Morris could be converted to start the season, and that a couple of them could be with the Twins sooner rather than later. As you can see, 2026 is shaping up to be a truly transitional season; one in which it almost makes more sense for the Twins to just see what they have with the myriad prospects in the upper minors. Doing so would allow them to get a better sense for what their true longer-term organizational needs look like, and go into 2027 with sights set on two or three positions that need to be shored up with high-end options. But, doing little aside from signing Bell is truly a half-measure. You know, the thing Pohlad is against. Really, the only way to square all of his quotes, to compete this year while also building for the future, and to avoid half-measures entirely would be to deliberately block the youth movement for the first part of the season by signing a bopper and three good relievers to one-year deals, then planning to trade all of them as the prospects prove their readiness. Do you see ownership giving Falvey the green light to do so, if it were to cost another $35 million, or more? Even if it was really more like $15 or 20 million before they are traded away midseason, it’s still more than they are expected to spend, and by a decent margin. It would certainly be one way to put his money where his mouth is. It would make for some fun ball, too. View the full article