DiamondCentric

The Minnesota Twins’ front office walked into the winter meetings and did something fans probably needed to hear: they said they are not interested in trading Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan or Pablo López this offseason. Given the smoke surrounding all three in recent weeks, that was no small statement. And honestly, that is exactly how it should be. These are the types of players competitive teams collect, not unload. You build a core around them. You do not move them unless you are ready to admit that the window is closed and the locks have rusted shut. But even with that reassurance, fans are not imagining the tension. The Twins looked very much like a franchise walking the line between competing and retrenching. Last year’s deadline, which involved shedding bullpen arms and clearing money, suggested a team bracing for a softer landing in 2026 rather than gearing up to sprint. That is why, despite the front office’s public stance, it is still plausible to wonder whether the door is completely shut on moving Buxton, Ryan or López. Mid-market teams often operate with different guardrails. They do not have the luxury of outspending mistakes or replacing injuries with premium depth. When payroll projections dip, like this season where the Twins are expected to land well below last year’s post-purge figure of around 130 million dollars and possibly under 100 million dollars, the temptation to convert expensive, high-value players into multiple lower-cost future contributors becomes very real. It is not desirable from the fan perspective. It is not energizing. But it is a reality that front offices in this economic tier confront regularly. Teams in this bracket build and rebuild in rolling cycles. They hold their stars until they cannot justify the next contract or until the payroll crunch tightens. They trade premium players not because they want to but because the structure demands it. That is the context sitting quietly underneath the front office’s reassurance. First: Buxton. He is coming off the healthiest season we have seen in years. He energized the lineup, stabilized center field, showed MVP-caliber flashes and brought the type of charisma and presence that cannot be taught. However, he also carries the lingering reputation of injuries, being on the wrong side of age-30, and the uncertainty surrounding a potential 2027 work stoppage. If a missed season or partial season affects the remaining years of his team-friendly contract, the calculus shifts. For a mid-market team, this winter might have been the moment to capitalize on maximum value if they wanted to. Second: Ryan and López. Top-of-the-rotation arms don’t just walk around unattended. If you’re rebuilding, these are your most valuable trade chips. But if you’re trying to compete—even on a budget—they’re the exact pieces you refuse to entertain offers on. The Twins planting a flag here suggests they view 2025 not as a step-back year but as a bridge year they intend to bolster internally rather than detonate. Third: they understand the fan base. I mean, it’s hard to believe that this is the case given all the posturing and tone deaf reactions in the recent past. This is not a market that wants to hear about another cycle of waiting for a window to open. Fans want a push toward contention, not a slow retreat in the name of long-term flexibility. The front office knows that trading franchise-level players immediately after trimming payroll would create significant backlash. With attendance dipping into the lowest numbers they’ve seen since the Metrodome years, the front office and potential new partners have to understand they need some kind of revenue stream and unloading star talent would result in Target Field becoming the place where moss collects on empty seats. So their stance matters. Their core stays intact. Their best players remain. However, the underlying economics do not go away. The Pohlad family could choose to spend well beyond mid-market ranges, but they have opted instead to operate within them. If the Twins were to reverse course and entertain offers for Buxton, López or Ryan, the payroll projection would collapse quickly. What currently looks like a moderate dip from 130 million dollars could fall below 100 million dollars. That outcome would invite questions about whether the competitive timeline was being pushed further into the future. For now, the message is clear. The Twins are saying they are not rebuilding. It is the correct public stance. The next step is proving that keeping this group together leads to something greater than a reassuring sound bite. View the full article

Add the Toronto Blue Jays to the list of teams that have checked in on six-time NPB All-Star Kazuma Okamoto. In addition to the Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, the Blue Jays reportedly have interest in signing the slugging infielder, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Okamoto, 29, is DiamondCentric's no. 15 free agent this winter, projected to sign a four-year, $68 million contract. He has been one of NPB's most prolific sluggers over the last eight years, leading the Central League in home runs three times. Some evaluators have questions about his third base defense, suggesting he really belongs at first base or DH, but he would need to stick at the hot corner to make sense for the Blue Jays. The Yomiuri Giants posted Okamoto in mid-November, giving him until January 4 at 5:00 pm ET to sign with an MLB club. That date is significant, because the Blue Jays might not know by then whether or not they will be able to re-sign star shortstop Bo Bichette. So, what do you think about this rumour? Would you like to see the Blue Jays pursue Okamoto, or should they look elsewhere to upgrade the offense? Voice your thoughts in the comments below. Featured image courtesy of Darren Yamashita, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Cubs appear poised to lose Kyle Tucker to free agency without a fight, and yet, the Cubs have a bigger hole to fill in their rotation than that left by their departing right fielder. Don't take my word for it, Jed Hoyer has been saying as much since November 11th at the general manager meetings in Las Vegas. More specifically than just pitching, what the Cubs truly need are strikeouts. The team has done a great job of getting the most out of what they have, finishing the season 10th in ERA (3.81) despite ranking 19th in fWAR. They have done this through a combination of an elite defense and Wrigley Field turning into a pitcher's haven. Still, their inability to strike out hitters and overpower them came back to bite them in the playoffs, as the team was clearly an arm or two short in the Milwaukee series. The fix is obvious: just add more strikeouts. In theory, this won't be a hard fix, as despite the excellent ERA, the team finished just 21st in strikeouts in 2025, so there's nowhere to really go but up. The problem is that while it's easy to identify the need to add swing-and-miss stuff to the pitching staff, almost every other organization in Major League Baseball is going to place the same importance on striking hitters out, making it an expensive endeavor. Thus far in the Jed Hoyer era, the Cubs have been far more value-focused than anything; a team consistently looking for a good deal and willing to wait out markets, rather than going and getting "their guy". This hasn't always been a bad thing; they've managed to build bullpens on a shoestring budget and have also found players like Matthew Boyd to round out their pitching, but it also means that acquiring known strikeout artists has proven to be difficult. If you were going to apply the same value-forward proposition to the 2025 free agent class, it'd be hard not to zero in on left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez. The writers of DiamondCentric ranked the 30-year-old Suarez as our ninth-best player available, with a projected contract of five years and $110 million. While $110 million sounds rich on the surface, it's a much smaller projected number (and fewer years) than we have tied to remaining pitchers such as Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai (both are projected for six years and over $150 million in total dollars). The value begins to show itself when you take into account just how close Valdez and Suarez have been over the course of the last two seasons, and where we have the two projected in terms of free agent contracts: On the surface, it would seem, then, that signing Ranger Suarez to a five-year deal around a $22 million average annual value would be kind of a slam dunk, but I'm not so sure he's a good fit for what the Cubs need. In fact, he's a contract and a player I hope the Cubs stay far, far away from, despite a recent report from Mark Feinsand suggesting the Cubs are among the three most "serious" threats to sign him. It's not because I think Suarez is bad, but that going with the "value" option has been a bit of a bugaboo for the team in general, and has seemingly left them a player (or two) short in each of the last two seasons. Breaking from that mold (even just a little bit) feels like a necessary next step in climbing the MLB hierarchy. Even just beyond breaking an internal mold, I hold reservations on the pitcher himself. The first reason is that red flags are already popping up, with a backslide in velocity. As recently as 2023, the left-handed pitcher was averaging over 93mph on his fastball. Jump to last season, and he's bled two full mph off the pitch as he now sits at 91.2mph. The velocity bottomed out mid-season, around 89mph, between June and July, before jumping back up to the low-90s. Still, nothing suggests that 93mph is coming back without some serious intervention (whether medically or mechanically, I'm unsure). The decline in overall velocity hasn't been seen entirely in terms of his strikeout rates, as he has sat pretty neutral over the course of the last three seasons, with K%'s of 22%, 23.2%, and 23.2% over his last three campaigns, but the drop in velocity remains concerning. A pitcher who already does not generate much whiff and who does not add much in terms of extension is playing with fire. There will come a point at which a lowered velocity is going to catch up with a pitcher who's already hovering around league-average strikeout rates, and it doesn't feel like Suarez is too far from that as is. Not everything is terrible with Ranger Suarez, however. As noted in the chart above, he's shown an elite ability to limit contact, finishing last year in the 89th percentile or better for barrels, exit velocity, and hard hit rate. He gets a good deal of chase, too. In front of that elite defense, Suarez would probably look to be a pretty good pitcher at times! But does he really solve what the Cubs need right now? The answer is: not really, I really don't think so. The Cubs already have left-handed pitchers who use lower-velocity, deception, and movement to limit batted ball data, like Justin Steele, who will return from injury in the first-third of the 2026 season. They have another lower-velocity lefty in Shota Imanaga, and Jameson Taillon is essentially the right-handed version of a "limit-the-hitter to weak contact" type himself. Suarez's 23% rate is just a bit above league average for a starting pitcher, and his velocity is already below that of a league average starting pitcher (and even when we account just for left-handed ones). If the Cubs' biggest deficiencies in their rotation are strikeouts (21st) and they also lack some velocity (13th), then adding yet another pitcher like Ranger Suarez seems to be missing the point. Now is the time for a 92-win-Cubs team to stop worrying about surplus value in every single move. That isn't to say "ignore value entirely", but instead to suggest that a big-market team like the Chicago Cubs should occasionally get a little irrational about a guy they have to have. They've already missed on Dylan Cease, bowing out reportedly when the bidding got to $200 million, but just because they've missed on Cease shouldn't mean they need to give up on the pursuit of the almighty K. Tatsuya Imai projects to have a strong ability to strike out hitters in MLB. Other pitchers such as Michael King (27.6 K% since 2023), Joe Ryan (28.3 K% since 2023), Edward Cabrera (career 25.9 K%), and MaKenzie Gore (career 25.6 K%) remain available on the market in some fashion. There are likely other names that could become available or are available without even knowing, so these five shouldn't be the end of the discussion either. Ranger Suarez might not be a ticking time-bomb (though with the velocity decline, he might be, too), but he projects as a safer, more value-oriented signing that would improve the Cubs, but not likely in the way the team needs. The team needs to diversify a bit and become a little less reliant on great defense to make their pitchers look good; Nico Hoerner is an impending free agent in 2027, and Dansby Swanson took a bit of a step back last year - their defense isn't going to last forever. Dylan Cease on the contract he got would have looked very good at the top of the Cubs rotation with Cade Horton, but they cannot just allow that to be their one swing in terms of adding more whiff to their starting rotation group. They cannot simply rely on prospects to add what they need; Cade Horton looks like he'll help, and rookie Jaxon Wiggins may as well, but beyond those two, the cupboard is pretty barren in the system right now. So instead of using a ballpark and extracting every ounce of value, the Cubs should be looking to just "get a dude" for lack of better wording. Get a hoss, a stud, whatever you want to call him - bring in some strikeouts, even if it costs a little more. Sadly, Ranger Suarez, while a fine pitcher in his own right, falls short of that status in my mind. It isn't that he's a terrible pitcher; he's just not the right pitcher for the Cubs. What do you think of Ranger Suarez? Should the Cubs pursue the left-handed pitcher? Or are there other options for the Cubs that you'd rather have? Let us know in the comment section below! View the full article

When the Boston Red Sox signed Cooper Criswell before the 2024 season, many fans joked about it and were upset that, at the time, he was arguably the team’s biggest offseason signing after a 2023 season that saw the team fall apart down the stretch. Prior to joining the Red Sox, he had spent parts of three seasons with the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays as a roster fill-in, making two starts in two seasons with the Angels and making 10 relief appearances with the Rays. He was not viewed as someone who was going to help the rotation in a serious manner, yet Craig Breslow made sure to bring him into the organization. Criswell opened the 2024 season in Worcester, serving as pitching depth in the event the major-league squad needed pitching. Fortunately for the Red Sox. he got off to a hot start, allowing just one earned run in his first 10 1/3 innings before being called up to Boston. His first start was nothing too special, going four innings and holding the Angels to two runs on five hits a day after they had scored seven runs against Tanner Houck. It wasn’t until his second start (and third appearance) where Criswell got going, as in his next 19 1/3 innings, he allowed just three earned runs and the Red Sox won his next four starts. He cemented himself as a back-of-the-rotation option for the next few months, even with a couple of bad outings interspersed. But following a June 15 outing against the New York Yankees where he allowed just two runs over four innings, Criswell was optioned back to Worcester to make room for Chris Martin, who was coming off the injured list. He wouldn’t be gone for long. Recalled for a July 12 game against the Royals, Criswell would remain with Boston for the remainder of the season, bouncing between the rotation and bullpen as needed. In his first year with Boston, Criswell would go 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA in 26 appearances, 18 of them being starts. He would give the Sox 99 1/3 innings and managed to strike out 73 batters in that span. He wasn't a flashy signing, but he more than did his job when called upon. There were questions about if he would remain with Boston for 2025, but once he was given an extra option year, it was clear he would remain with the team as a depth option. He had pitched well enough in 2024 to be given that chance, and entering the 2025 season, he made his first Opening Day roster as an arm out of the bullpen. Unfortunately for Criswell, much like in 2024, he did not perform as well out of the bullpen and only made three appearances (including a three-inning save in the second game of a doubleheader with the Cardinals on April 6) where he gave up eight runs, five earned runs, in 4 1/3 innings. Following the doubleheader, he was optioned to Worcester, where he remained until the beginning of June. Criswell would make two appearances in his latest stint, faring better out of the bullpen as he would throw 4 2/3 innings and allow just a single run. But thanks to being optionable, Criswell was sent back to Worcester, allowing the Red Sox to keep roster flexibility with their pitching staff. The veteran pitcher would be called up once more, making a single appearance on July 2 where he went 1 2/3 without allowing a run against the Cincinnati Reds. Criswell provided innings out of the bullpen when the team had fallen behind 8-4 and allowed Alex Cora to keep his top arms rested. Criswell knew his role for the 2025 season and much like in 2024, he served it to the best of his ability. That was none the more obvious than in what may have been his best start with Boston. Needing a starter for an important August 1 game against the Houston Astros, the Red Sox turned to Criswell to take the mound. To say the game was important was an understatement, as the Red Sox were fighting with Houston at the time for a wild card spot and this was the first game of a three-game series. Criswell didn’t stumble; instead, he absolutely cruised on the mound as he kept Astros hitters from taking control of the game. Needing just 84 pitches, Criswell pitched around seven base hits and two walks to hold the Astros to a single run, giving the team every opportunity to score against Cy Young-candidate Hunter Brown. And the team managed to do so, tying the game in the seventh inning before walking it off in the tenth. Criswell’s heroics set the tone for the series as the Red Sox swept the Astros and gave themselves some breathing room. In return, Criswell was optioned to Worcester where he would make two more appearances before finally getting shut down due to right elbow inflammation. As the season ended, it seemed like Criswell would be designated for assignment or non-tendered as younger, more talented pitchers had emerged within the system. Instead, the Red Sox signed him to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration. Then, the news came out on December 4 that he had been designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Johan Oveido and Tyler Samaniego. He was subsequently claimed off waivers by the New York Mets, ending his tenure (at least for now) in Boston. Criswell won't be looked back upon as a franchise legend, but he always stepped up for the team when they needed him. For that, he should be remembered fondly by Red Sox fans. View the full article

Discussing the art of the MLB vs. MiLB phases of protection, here's some background via the ultimate Rule 5 guru, JJ Cooper of Baseball America, and we thank him for these insights: "Any Rule 5-eligible player who is not on a 40-man MLB roster is available to be picked in the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, while all players not on the 38-player Triple-A rosters are available to be picked in the MiLB Rule 5 draft. So, when it comes to the MLB Rule 5 draft, players on the 38-player Triple-A rosters are really the only players who get picked. If a player is available for the MiLB Rule 5 draft, it just makes too much sense to wait and pick them in a draft where there are no onerous roster restrictions. Similarly, MLB clubs move players who are not Rule 5-eligible off of Triple-A rosters in paper transactions once the offseason commences. It makes no sense for the Twins to leave Walker Jenkins (who finished the year in Triple-A) on the St. Paul roster when that spot can be used to protect another player from the MiLB Rule 5 draft. So, Jenkins has been transferred to the Double-A Wichita roster for procedural reasons. There may be some MiLB free agents whose signings have not yet been made public who are Rule 5-eligible but are not included on projected team lists." So, these modified AAA rosters are not something that's ever made public by MLB teams or MiLB affiliate pages. The Brewers actual AAA roster for Rule 5 purposes is invisible to us. For Milwaukee, this AAA roster nuance currently affects only one player on Nashville's AAA roster as of its MiLB.com link - LHP Tate Kuehner finished the 2025 season with the Nashville Sounds but is not yet Rule 5 eligible with only three professional seasons under his belt. The Brewers could place as many as 38 players on the "invisible" AAA roster to keep them from being picked in the minor league phase of Rule 5. In theory, that would only expose two players to the minor league phase. However, it's likely Milwaukee will protect less than 38, perhaps quite a few less. The first reason for doing so is to allow space for Milwaukee to take players from other organizations in the minor league phase, as the Brewers have often done (Isaac Collins, anyone?). If the team maxed out the 38-player list from the start and didn't lose any player in the MLB phase, there would be no room at all to grab a player like OF Garrett Spain, who the Brewers claimed from Toronto last year at this time, and who remains in the organization. The second reason a player might be exposed to the minor league phase is in "as a favor" fashion. Going back to 2012, then-General Manager Doug Melvin indicated that infielder Eric Farris had been exposed (and subsequently selected by Seattle) as a professional courtesy in order to provide a better chance at a future career for the player. It's quite possible that of the many players the organization has lost in the minor league phase in the ensuing years, some were left unprotected with similar thinking, though it's rare for a GM to indicate such openly. The names below are listed by the most recent level in which they saw action. An asterisk next to a player's name indicates that this is their first year of Rule 5 eligibility. While all these players were certainly reviewed by the Crew's decision-makers when addition to the big-league 40-man roster was considered earlier this fall, only RHP Coleman Crow, on the cusp of minor league free agency, was formally added. Crow was on a list like the one you see here last year at this time, but his injury status had teams wary and (thankfully) he was not plucked by another organization last December. There had been speculation that RHP Blake Holub and LHP Brian Fitzpatrick might join Crow on the 40-man this fall. As such, they may be potential targets on Wednesday. The minor league phase can always lead to unexpected names appearing, both coming and going. Here's to a productive Winter Meetings for the Brewers, including Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft which concludes the week's events in Orlando. P.S. The buzz around 40-man roster status and Rule 5 protection and exposure for Crew prospects is going to be over the top insane next year based on the volume and quality of prospects "coming due". There will be plenty of dialogue to rapture us throughout next year's minor league season in preparation for December 2026. AAA Nashville: RHP JB Bukauskas RHP Will Childers* LHP Brian Fitzpatrick* RHP Blake Holub INF Eddys Leonard INF Ethan Murray LHP Thomas Pannone LHP Nate Peterson* RHP Garrett Stallings INF Freddy Zamora AA Biloxi: INF Eric Brown, Jr.* INF/OF Eduardo Garcia RHP Stiven Cruz RHP Nick Merkel* C Darrien Miller OF Hedbert Perez C Ramon Rodriguez LHP Russell Smith OF Garrett Spain UTIL Jheremy Vargas INF Zavier Warren C Matt Wood* High-A Wisconsin: RHP Patricio Aquino* OF Luis Castillo* C Blayberg Diaz C David Garcia INF Daniel Guilarte* 1B/OF Tayden Hall* RHP Edwin Jimenez C Andrick Nava OF/INF Kay-Lan Nicasia RHP Yerlin Rodriguez RHP Will Rudy* RHP Cameron Wagoner* A-Ball Carolina: RHP Quinton Low* C Edgardo Ordonez* LHP Anfernny Reyes* LHP Caden Vire* Rookie Maryvale: C Eric Martinez* OF Demetrio Nadal* View the full article

So far this offseason, rumors have been swirling that the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to be in the mix for big bats to add to their contending lineup. Whether it be one of the very top free agents, i.e., Kyle Tucker, or one just a tier below, like Cody Bellinger, those are two outfield bats that could make a huge difference for the Jays going forward. However, lost in all the rumor mill excitement happens to be the Blue Jays’ big offseason signing from 2024-25: Anthony Santander. It appears as though many have already written off the former All-Star outfielder from being a major contributor for the upcoming season and beyond. But can Santander reinsert himself as a key piece of the contending puzzle for the Jays in 2026? Recall that Santander hasn’t been just a one-hit wonder during his time in the majors. Prior to joining the Jays, the 31-year-old outfielder posted bWAR values of 2.1, 3.0 and 2.9 and a wRC+ above 118 in three consecutive seasons with the Baltimore Orioles from 2022 to 2024. Last season with Toronto, his .175 average, .565 OPS, and -1.0 bWAR were among the worst of his nine-year MLB career. The critical question is how much of his struggles can be attributed to his shoulder injury that ended up limiting him to just 54 regular season games in 2025? Remember how ineffective Bo Bichette was during his injury-riddled 2024 campaign. Guess what happened the very next season for the star shortstop? A huge bounce-back campaign, in which he reverted to his true form, leading the Blue Jays into the postseason as a result. So, to make a real assessment of Santander, one has to give him a run to see how he performs once back to full health. The Steamer projection system at FanGraphs has moderate confidence in the 31-year-old slugger to become productive once again, as it predicts 26 home runs and 75 RBI but only a 106 wRC+ and 1.0 WAR for the upcoming season. It also has his strikeout rate reverting back closer to his 21.1% career rate at 22.7%. That would be a significant improvement upon his troublesome 27.6% mark in his first season with the Jays. Blue Jays fans should be optimistic as well since Santander still managed to maintain an average exit velocity around 89.6 mph last season, which is close to his career average of 90.0 mph. He also produced a hard-hit rate of 41%. What stood out was his alarming barrel rate of just 4.5%, which was almost a full five percentage points below his career average. His shoulder issue was likely the main cause behind that, so his egregious barrel rate should be easily rectified once he has his clean bill of health. As a result, the Jays might not really need the big addition of a Tucker or even a Bellinger this offseason. Santander reverting to the Santander of old might be enough of an offensive boost to the lineup, since Toronto never really saw the best of him in 2025. Therefore, things can only look up from here for Santander and the Jays as they look to get better and better for the upcoming season. View the full article

Ty Adcock has three things going for him as he joins his fourth MLB organization: 1. A fun name. 2. A big arm. 3. Winter-league buzz. Nos. 2 and 3 are mostly why the Padres signed him to a one-year, major league contract less than a week before the start of the 2025 Winter Meetings. Adcock is the type of depth reliever teams try to accumulate. Usually, these pitchers can be shuttled between MLB and Triple-A during the season. If a roster crunch hits, they can be cut without much stress. But Adcock is out of minor league options. The Mets outrighted him last August, and he became a minor league free agent in November. The major league contract is a tell that the Pads think they might have something in the right-hander, who will turn 29 on February 7. Adcock made just six appearances for New York over parts of two seasons. (Yes, he was one of the record 46 pitchers used by New York in 2025.) He did not enter manager Carlos Mendoza's bullpen circle of trust. In fact, he pitched with a lead just once in those half-dozen outings. Including his rookie season of 2023 with the Mariners, Adcock has pitched to a career 5.48 ERA (7.18 FIP), with nine home runs allowed in 23 innings. On the positive side, he owns a 4.75 K:BB ratio. Maybe the Padres liked the strike-throwing and decided to make a move. More likely, they really liked what he was doing with Estrellas in the Dominican winter league, which until about a week ago was managed by Fernando Tatis Sr. In nine innings over seven appearances (all in relief), Adcock racked up 15 strikeouts with no walks. His strikeout rate was 41.7 percent, and his K:BB was, well, infinity. (All stats through Dec. 3.) San Diego saw enough to put him on the 40-man roster. So, what, exactly, does Adcock offer the Friars if not high-leverage experience? Heat, mostly. In Seattle, he was slider-first, followed by the four-seamer. In New York, the pitch mix flipped, and he started throwing a cutter. (Source: Baseball Savant) In that transformation was the usual pursuit of added velo. Adcock caught it. Last season, Adcock bumped up his four-seamer average from 96.6 mph to 97.1 mph, while his cutter stayed at 93.1 mph. And the slider, which he throws equally to right-handed and left-handed batters, checks in at 86.9 mph, giving him good separation. (All velos per Baseball Savant.) On the downside, the four-seam spin rate is... not elite: 2,172 rpm (he's between Jeffrey Springs and Carlos Carrasco on the Statcast chart). The slider profiles better at 2,199 rpm. The company around him on that pitch is Hunter Brown, Zack Littell, and... Jeremiah Estrada. The cutter, his third pitch, spins at 2,206 rpm, which puts him between Springs, Logan Gillaspie, and Jason Alexander. So, his stuff is a tick or two below Estrada and other new teammates, David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez, but it should still play at the bottom of the 'pen. To recap, Adcock comes to San Diego with a three-pitch arsenal mix by a high-90s heater and a big showing in winter ball. In the spring, he'll try to build momentum while working with pitching coach Ruben Niebla and first-year manager Craig Stammen. Maybe they'll end up with a guy who is no longer Just A Guy. View the full article

Major League Baseball has put in place rules and stipulations for the MLB Draft Lottery that have changed how the MLB Draft operates for decades. The lottery will not always let the team with the worst record from the previous season have the first overall pick, so Jamie and Jeremy explain why the Colorado Rockies can't pick higher than 10th after setting a franchise worst 43-119 record in 2025. View the full article

Derek Falvey keeps saying he wants to add to the roster, to keep the starting pitching intact, and that he intends to compete. That said, the Twins don’t seem to be any closer to telegraphing intentions around payroll, and who knows when we will learn the identity or viability of the limited partners they hope to bring on. With the winter meetings right around the corner, if the Twins aren’t going to spend enough to fight for more than a .500 record, they should be actively shopping Ryan Jeffers as he enters the final year of team control. Being a catcher is a tough gig, with a lot of complexity to it. Beyond the physical toll of crouching, taking foul balls off the body, and having to pop up quickly to fire a throw to second, they need to call the game for an entire pitching staff. In today’s game, that means having a relationship with 13 different pitchers, plus the dozen or so more that spend a day, a week, or a month on the roster. Catchers have to be familiar with each pitcher’s repertoire, have a feel for proper sequencing for them, and quickly gauge the relative effectiveness of their arsenal on any given day. That’s…a lot. If you are a manager of people in your daily life, you know how difficult it is to be up to speed with the personalities, strengths, and needs of the people who work for you. Now, imagine being dropped into a new environment without the luxury of time to get to know people. It’s tough, right? By nature, any team trading for a starting catcher at the deadline is in the hunt. Time is dwindling, and every game matters. There aren’t months, or even weeks, to ramp up. There isn’t time to study film, or receive several bullpen sessions. Further, any team looking to trade for a catcher is doing so for a reason. Probably, it’s because they either lost their starting catcher to injury, or he has been ineffective at the plate to the point of needing to be relegated to backup duty. These factors combine to mean that the pool of teams looking to trade for a catcher is limited, indeed. Because of all of these factors, starting catchers are very rarely traded mid-season; it just doesn’t make a ton of sense. In fact, as best as I can tell, only seven starting catchers have been traded at the deadline in the past decade. Jonathan Lucroy was dealt twice, in 2016 and 2017. Martin Maldonado was traded twice, in 2018 and 2019. Austin Nola, in 2020, went from the Mariners to the Padres. Yan Gomes moved in 2021. Austin Hedges was traded in both 2020 and 2023. Old friend Wilson Ramos found a new home in both 2018 and 2021. Finally, old friend Christian Vasquez was traded from the Red Sox to the Astros in 2022. That’s not many trades at all, compared to any other position. Based on all this, it’s safe to assume that hoping the stars align for a trade at the deadline is not a good bet. It’s also safe to assume the Twins do not intend to give Jeffers a qualifying offer next offseason. And, I can’t imagine them looking to sign him to an extension as he would surely command somewhere between $10 and $15 million a year over at least three seasons. Jeffers is an above-average hitter at a tough position, is well-liked, cerebral, and is expected to be above-average at using the ABS challenge system to his advantage behind the dish. While he struggles with pitch framing and pop time, he would still have very real value to any team looking to upgrade at catcher. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 2.0 fWAR, the same as the best free agent catcher currently available, J.T. Realmuto. The latter, per The Athletic, is due for a three-year, $45 million deal even as he enters the twilight of his career. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Jeffers is expected to cost around $6.6 million in his final turn through arbitration and comes without that pesky multi-year aspect, which many teams would presumably like to avoid heading into the uncertainty of the 2027 CBA negotiations. There is surplus value to be had, and plenty of teams would pay for that. It’s time for Falvey to pick a lane, but if it’s a rebuild, whatever he wants to call it, it’s time to trade Jeffers before losing him for nothing at season’s end. View the full article

The Twins' farm system has undergone significant restructuring in recent years, but the organization remains committed to developing waves of talent to complement the big-league roster. Some years produce star-level prospects while others deliver depth, but Minnesota has consistently found value across the age spectrum. Identifying a top prospect in every age group offers a unique view of how well the system is layered. It also highlights how the Twins continue to invest in both high-end draft picks and international signings, which gives the farm system balance and long-term upside. From teenagers just getting their first taste of professional baseball to pitchers and position players closing in on Target Field, every tier of the system features someone capable of making an impact. This age-based snapshot shows the range of tools, projections, and developmental paths that make the Twins one of the more intriguing organizations to track as their next wave forms. Age 17: INF Haritzon Castillo Castillo is one of the freshest names in the system, but he already carries the look of a fast riser. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, he has impressed evaluators with a fluid swing that produces consistent line drive contact. In 39 games last season, he hit .283/.395/.428 (.823) with 13 extra-base hits and a 117 wRC+. He moves easily in the infield with enough athleticism to project to multiple spots. While he is still years away, his baseball instincts have already put him ahead of most players his age. Other Candidates: INF Santiago Leon, RHP Santiago Castellanos Age 18: SS Quentin Young Minnesota took Young with their second-round pick last July, and he has quickly become one of the most exciting young shortstops in the organization. His combination of smooth defensive actions and emerging offensive impact gives him a strong foundation to build on. He went 2-for-17 in his pro debut, but it was a small sample size. The Twins love his ability to control the strike zone, and the added strength has started to translate into more loud contact. His ceiling is still forming, but the ingredients are all there for a significant leap. Other Candidates: OF Jhomnardo Reyes Age 19: C Eduardo Tait Tait was the top prospect acquired in the Jhoan Duran trade. He is coming off a breakout season in which he showed advanced feel for hitting and surprising pop for his age. In 112 games, he hit .253/.311/.427 (.738) with a 103 wRC+, while being four years younger than the average age of the competition at High-A. His receiving continues to improve, and the Twins believe he can develop into a strong defensive catcher as he matures. The bat is already ahead of schedule, and his balanced approach should allow him to move quickly. Minnesota has needed catching depth, and Tait has positioned himself as a key part of that future. Other Candidates: LHP Dasan Hill, RHP Matt Barr Age 20: OF Walker Jenkins Jenkins remains the centerpiece of the entire system. His five-tool profile and polished plate approach make him one of the top prospects in baseball. Last season, he finished the year at Triple-A and still combined for a 135 wRC+. Even as one of the younger players at his level, he has shown the ability to make adjustments quickly and consistently drive the ball with authority. His overall game continues to trend upward, and he has arguably the highest ceiling of any player to come through the Twins system since Byron Buxton. Other Candidates: RHP Charlee Soto, IF and OF Brandon Winokur Age 21: SS Marek Houston Houston has become one of the more intriguing infielders in the organization thanks to his smooth defensive ability and growing offensive confidence. The Twins took him with the 16th overall pick in last June’s draft and pushed him to High-A in his pro debut while slashing .270/.330/.350 (.680). His range and arm strength allow him to stay at shortstop long term, and the Twins think there is more power to come as his body matures. With a strong work ethic and improved plate discipline, he could take a significant step forward next season. Other Candidates: OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Riley Quick Age 22: SS Kaelen Culpepper Culpepper was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year after he flashed across multiple levels this year with a dynamic skill set. In 113 games, he hit .289/.375/.469 (.844) with a 138 wRC+. He is a reliable defender at shortstop, after questions about his ability to stick at the position during the draft process. His offensive approach continues to tighten with more consistent at-bats. His ability to impact the game in multiple ways keeps him firmly in the conversation as one of the system’s most dependable upper-level infielders. Other Candidates: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, C Khadim Diaw Age 23: LHP Kendry Rojas Minnesota spoke highly of Rojas when they acquired him as part of the Louis Varland trade. He has emerged as the top left-handed arm in his age group thanks to a sinker and one of the better sliders in the system. In 69 innings, he posted a 4.70 ERA with a 28.8 K% and a 10.3 BB% while being over five years younger than the average age of the competition at Triple-A. If his slider continues to develop, he could project as a playoff-caliber starter with room to grow. The Twins value his competitiveness and steady progress. Other Candidates: RHP Marco Raya, IF Billy Amick Age 24: LHP Connor Prielipp Prielipp is finally starting to resemble the dominant pitcher he was before Tommy John surgery. His slider remains a true out pitch, and the Twins have been encouraged by his increased velocity and improved command. In 2025, he posted a 4.03 ERA with a 27.0 K% and an 8.5 BB%. If he can maintain health, Minnesota believes he could push for major league innings sooner rather than later. Derek Falvey mentioned him as a potential option for Minnesota’s revamped bullpen, and he has the upside to be a dominant late-inning lefty. Other Candidates: RHP Andrew Morris, RHP Mick Abel This age-based breakdown shows how deliberately the Twins have built their farm system. Each tier offers something different, and together they create a foundation that can support both short-term needs and long-term aspirations. Players like Jenkins and Culpepper are nearing the doorstep, while younger talents such as Castillo and Young provide hope for the next wave. It is a reminder that, even as the major league roster shifts, reliable talent is developing just beneath the surface. Do you agree with the rankings? Should any of the other candidates be the top choice? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

William Contreras is back for his fourth year as the ironman behind the plate for the Brewers. His hitting fell off somewhat last season, as evidenced by a decline of all three slash numbers and a drop in home runs from 23 to 17. True, he played through some nagging hand injuries, but who out there thinks he could benefit from getting a few more days off during the long, arduous major league season? Jeferson Quero is expected to be the front-runner for the role of C2 in 2026, teaming up with fellow Venezuelan countryman Wild Bill in getting most of the playing time behind the plate for the Brewers. But what to do about a third catcher? Over the last three seasons, Victor Caratini, Eric Haase, Gary Sánchez, and Danny Jansen all shared time with Contreras on the backside of the irregular pentagon that is home plate. Ironically, all four of those backstops appear on the free agency list this offseason. Besides Sánchez, who are some other options? Initially, I liked the idea of Caratini coming back to Milwaukee in a reprise of his solid 2023 season, in which he hit seven home runs in 201 ABs. But his arm (13.7% CS rate) left something to be desired. Add to that his expected ask of a 2-year/$14 million contract, and I think it is a hard no for GM/President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold. Nearly 20 free agent catchers are left as we enter December, including Caratini, J.T. Realmuto, Jonah Heim, James McCann, and Yohel Pozo. But as a blogger posted, “It is a market so full, yet so bare at the same time.” How true. Going mostly by affordability, here is this humble scribe’s choice of a trio of catchers, one of which could help ease the grind of Major League Baseball for the Brewers' young catching savant in his freshman year in the bigs. Gary Sánchez Sánchez was signed by the Brewers as a free agent before the 2024 season. He did pretty much everything the Brewers asked of him, despite playing only 28 games behind the dish. Sánchez played a few games at first base in addition to DH’ing in 47 games. His batting line showed .220/.307/.392 across 245 at-bats, including 11 HRs, flashing his former 30-home run power. After the season, he signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Orioles. In 2025, with Baltimore, the man known as 'The Sanchize' was forced into everyday action, playing in 17 of the Orioles' 20 games from mid-June until early July due to injuries to All-Star Adley Rutschman, and back-ups Maverick Handley and Chadwick Tromp. He batted .295/.348/.574 across a 61 AB sample during that timeframe, including five home runs. Unfortunately for Sánchez and the Orioles, he became the fourth catcher to visit the IL when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee on July 5. Sánchez played a handful of rehab games in September but never returned to the bigs. His final line for 2025 included a batting line of .231/.297/.418 across 91 at-bats. He is currently playing for Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League and has a triple and a homer among his 8-for-29 start in nine games. Sánchez appears to be healthy, would provide a right-handed power bat, and could be a mentor for both Quero and Contreras. A 2-year, $7 million contract could be enough to lure the 33-year-old Sánchez back to Milwaukee, where he would likely end his career. Andrew Knizner Knizner spent his first five big league seasons in St. Louis before playing single free agent campaigns in Texas and San Francisco, respectively. Knizner (pronounced 'Kiz-ner'), who will turn 31 in February, has a career slash line of .211/.281/.316 in 323 games. He offers some pop in his bat, and on defense, his arm is considered fair-to-average, throwing out 22.2% of attempted base stealers against a league average of 23.2%. According to Statcast and FanGraphs, Knizner is middle of the pack with both a Fielding Run Value (FRV) of 0 and a Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) rating of -1. Although the right-handed batter may not have many (if any) elite tools to offer, he does have two things going for him. He married former Miami Dolphin cheerleader Ally Rahn last December, and his nickname is 'Kiz.' How could the Brewers not take the opportunity to showcase a battery of 'The Miz' and 'Kiz.' That alone is a t-shirt waiting to happen. He played for a one-year/$1.825 million contract for Texas in 2024, so it seems likely he could be inked to a 2-year/$3 million pact with Milwaukee. Reese McGuire The only left-handed hitter among my trio of players listed here, he would have been arb-eligible for the first time in 2026 and was projected to earn $1.9 million before he was non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs. McGuire, known as 'Pieces,' will turn 31 in March and has eight years of major league play under his belt. Last year with the Cubs, he batted .226/.245/.444 with nine homers in 133 ABs. His homers and 24 RBI were both career highs. McGuire posted a slightly below-average OPS+ of 94. Defensively, McGuire has a very good arm, throwing out 25.8% of runners attempting to steal last year. As recently as 2022, McGuire led the American League in nabbing base stealers, canceling runners at a 33.3% rate. In 2025, his FRV was four, and his DRS was -1. As with Sánchez and Knizner, McGuire offers tons of experience to help Quero along in his first year. Based on his arb numbers, it is likely McGuire would accept a 2-yr/$4 million contract. Other Options While players like Realmuto and Caratini are out of the Brewers' price range, and James McCann, Yohel Pozo, and Tomás Nido have all signed for 2026, there are several other options available. Former Brewers Jansen and Luke Maile are still out there. The bottom line is that Milwaukee could very well be interested in signing a veteran, low-cost receiver to help Contreras and Quero make it through 2026. Will they do it? What do you think of Sánchez, Knizner, and McGuire? Should the Brewers sign one of them? Is there anyone I am missing? Start the discussion in the comments section below. View the full article

In 2002 (the first-year reliable data from Fangraphs is available), the average fastball velocity of all MLB pitchers was 89.0 mph. Driven by training enhancements, exercise science, scouting emphasis and changes in pitch design, it has consistently increased over the years. Last season, it stood at 94.0 mph. In an age where it has become axiomatic that higher velocity inevitably leads to success, Tyler Rogers stands out as a complete anomaly. Rogers’s pitches aren’t just slow. They are slowest. His rarely-thrown four-seam fastball is the lowest velocity four-seamer in the entire league at 83.2 mph. His sinker, which he threw nearly 75% of the time in 2025, came in at an average of 83.5 mph. He combines that sinker primarily with a slider that has the velocity of a slow curveball at 72.6 mph. For comparison, the average changeup in MLB in 2025 was 85.9 mph. Yes, the average changeup in 2025 was more than 3 mph faster than Rogers’s fastball. Unlike his twin brother Taylor Rogers, a conventional throwing left-handed reliever currently with the Cincinnati Reds, Tyler has thrown from an ultra-low, submarine arm slot since high school, a style reminiscent of Royals team Hall of Famer Dan Quisenberry- but even lower. Rogers’s release point is just barely over six inches from the ground, almost certainly the lowest in baseball history. That throwing motion limits velocity but compensates with deception, movement and durability. The extreme low arm slot is far easier on fragile elbows and shoulders. Rogers has not spent one day on the injured list in his big-league career. After being drafted in 2013 in the 10th round out of Austin Peay by the San Francisco Giants, Rogers, despite generally good numbers, toiled in the minors for seven plus seasons before debuting in 2019 at the age of 28 and finally becoming a bullpen mainstay for the Giants in 2021. In recent years, ERA has fallen out of favor to FIP, which typically better predicts a pitcher’s future success than ERA by focusing on outcomes largely within their control such as strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In theory, if you miss bats, you will be more successful. Rogers again, is a complete anomaly. He does one thing better than anyone else in MLB. He misses barrels and hard contact while not missing bats. His K% was just 16.1% in 2025. His career xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) over 424 IP is nearly a full run higher than his ERA (2.76 ERA/3.74 xFIP). In every season in which he has pitched over 28 innings, his xFIP has been significantly higher. He is able to be successful in spite of his inability to miss bats because of his extreme ground ball percent (62.1% in 2025), low HR/9 (career 0.59), low BB% (2.3% in 2025), low HardHit% (32.9 vs league avg 47.8%) and low WHIP (0.94 in 2025). Rogers’s 131 Stuff+ for his sinker in 2025 is elite. Remember, he throws that pitch nearly 75% of the time. He induced an average of 18.2 inches of arm-side run (99th percentile) on it and combines that with a -10.5 inch vertical break. Alternatively, the slider tunnels from the exact same release point, and look exactly the same from the hitter's viewpoint until about 15 feet from the plate when it moves in the opposite direction. He is simply the most effective pitcher in MLB who does NOT have swing-and-miss stuff. He does what modern sabermetricians say is not repeatable, and he’s done it for five straight seasons. One of the ways a small market team can make up ground on the big guys like the Dodgers, who hand out massive long-term contracts like candy, is by building an elite bullpen. Bullpens are more important than ever with starting pitchers giving max effort for fewer innings per start than in the past. The 2014-2015 Royals are a prime example of how a dominant bullpen can be a difference maker for a small market team. Relievers are, by comparison to most other positions, cheaper. Rogers’s consensus projected contract is 2-3 years at 20-25 million ($8-9 million AAV). The Royal’s bullpen is already in decent shape with a returning closer in Carlos Estevez, and high leverage swing man Lucas Erceg. John Schreiber returns along with lefty Angel Zerpa. While there are some intriguing options to round out the pen including Alex Lange and Luinder Avila, adding Rogers along with another lefty would greatly improve the length and strength of the pen. Rogers's splits for left-handed hitters vs right-handed hitters are remarkably similar. Although he is entering his 35-year-old season, his velocity independent history of success, and his remarkable durability alleviate concerns over his age. He is more likely than just about anyone to be pitching effectively late into his 30s. If Rogers is able to repeat his 2025 WAR of 1.3, it would amount to a considerable bargain. For the cost-conscious Royals, this is a no-brainer. View the full article

One thing most Royals fans should be accustomed to hearing about is budget restraint. And while John Sherman has shown some willingness to fork over cash to players, 2026 is already looking tight in the budget department. With current salary expectations and the assumption that the team will not increase payroll by more than a few million dollars, it can be projected that this winter the front office will have somewhere between $15 and $20 million to spend on free-agent acquisitions. For an MLB franchise and what players make in today’s game, that’s not a lot of dough. What this means is that, with what remains to spend, the signing must make sense both on the field and in the checkbook. A lot of this year's offseason for Kansas City has circled the team looking for help in the outfield, specifically an everyday left fielder. Harrison Bader is one name that has hit the stove, and while his 2025 campaign was one of his best, the underlying numbers suggest this may not be a gamble the Royals should take. Bader’s 2025 raw numbers look good; he had a .277 BA to go along with a .796 OPS while hitting 17 home runs and 54 RBI. His wRC+ was a respectable 122, and he had a 3.2 bWAR for the campaign. So what’s not to like? While this sort of performance would undoubtedly be an upgrade for the Royals' outfield, can the expectation be that Bader can repeat this in the upcoming season? The underlying metrics say not so fast. The first indicator to look at is Bader’s BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. This is sort of the catch-all for a player's “luck factor”. With 9 years and over 3,000 PAs under his belt, Bader has more than enough sample size to understand his normal range of production. His career BABIP is .305, which is right around league average, but his 2025 line shot up to .359. This is an immediate red flag for regression. Diving into the batted ball numbers, not much pops out as to what changed last season. His spray chart was consistent with his career averages; he wasn’t pulling the ball or sending it to the opposite field much more than usual. And his ground ball, line drives, and fly balls ratios were all in tune with what he typically hits. His FB% has come down over the last couple of seasons, which can be a positive for a player like Bader, as he has never been a slugger, but unfortunately, it hasn’t led to more line drives; instead, it has led to an increase in his groundball rate. Season GB/FB LD% GB% FB% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% 2017 1.13 16.40% 44.30% 39.30% 38.70% 37.10% 24.20% 17.70% 48.40% 33.90% 2018 1.19 26.80% 39.80% 33.50% 46.50% 29.60% 23.80% 21.50% 40.80% 37.70% 2019 0.87 17.40% 38.40% 44.20% 42.10% 37.30% 20.60% 16.30% 45.90% 37.80% 2020 0.93 15.20% 40.90% 43.90% 41.80% 32.80% 25.40% 23.90% 40.30% 35.80% 2021 1.04 15.80% 43.00% 41.20% 44.40% 32.40% 23.20% 21.50% 47.90% 30.60% 2022 0.92 16.40% 40.10% 43.50% 39.70% 41.80% 18.50% 24.10% 50.40% 25.40% 2023 0.78 16.70% 36.50% 46.80% 42.60% 34.00% 23.40% 20.40% 50.20% 29.40% 2024 1.19 21.10% 42.80% 36.10% 47.00% 36.40% 16.60% 19.20% 54.30% 26.50% 2025 1.25 17.80% 45.70% 36.50% 45.70% 34.30% 20.00% 21.60% 45.40% 33.00% Career 1.03 18.70% 41.30% 40.10% 44.00% 35.00% 21.10% 20.70% 47.70% 31.60% His exit velocity for 2025 sat at 87.2mph, again near his career 86.5, so no real extra juice when making contact other than a slight increase in bat speed which jumped from 70.8 and 71.2 in 2023 and 2024 (the first two years this stat was tracked via Baseball Savant) to 73.5 this past season. Other than his increase in bat speed, his advanced batting numbers from his past three seasons don’t look all that different. Looking above at his advanced metrics the past three seasons via Baseball Savant, only two things stick out for 2025 improvements: his bat speed and barrel rate. Both jumped up from significantly below to respectfully above league average. For a young player these could be signs of progress, but for a player like Bader who will be turning 32 in this upcoming season, it shows a more likely culprit; an outlier season. His xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all stayed relatively within his average range, but as mentioned earlier both his raw stats and BABIP took very noticeable jumps. These numbers combined with no strong evidence of an approach change at the plate through his batted ball numbers show 2025 was a good but generally lucky year with no real indications of sustainability. Simply, Bader is a career .247/.313/.401 hitter with a 96 wRC+; the odds would favor him playing closer to these numbers next season versus replicating his 2025 output. This isn’t written as a hit piece on Harrison Bader, he’s a productive player with good defense posting +13 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) this last season. But the point is if he is worth the price tag if you are paying a premium for a season that could be hard to repeat. For a team like the Royals with very limited cash to spend, the answer should lean no. Last month, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote their projections for the top 50 free agents contract numbers and Harrison Bader’s price tag is estimated to be in the two-year, $25 million range. A contract that could eat up a sizeable portion of the Royals funds with the risk of not improving the team at a much needed position. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins must see an improvement in their offense in order to have a chance at being competitive in 2026. The team has an obvious need for a right-handed, impact bat with first base and designated hitter as the most obvious positions where that addition could be added to the roster. Could free agent Paul Goldschmidt make sense for the Twins? Earlier in his career, Goldschmidt was a constant in All-Star and MVP conversations. He won the MVP award in the National League in 2022 while he was with the St. Louis Cardinals. Since 2022, Goldschmidt has not played anywhere near that MVP form, with a significant decline across many statistical categories. Even with that decline in performance, Goldschmidt looks like he would be a passable everyday player in Minnesota based on the traditional stats we look toward to measure production. With the Yankees in 2025, Goldschmidt slashed .274/.328/.403 with a .731 OPS. In 2025, Twins first basemen as a collective slashed .231/.304/.383 with a .687 OPS. With Kody Clemens currently the front runner for time at first base in 2026, a combination of Clemens and Goldschmidt looks intriguing when we simply look at the stats laid out above. A closer look reveals plenty of reasons to grow concerned about the 38-year-old. Often, when we look at batters and try to gauge where they are headed, bat speed is an important indicator. Goldschmidt, in the three years of data we have on swing speed, saw an increase in bat speed from 2023. An increase in bat speed is good, but what came with it may not be. With that increased speed, Goldschmidt, especially in 2025, began to swing under the ball more than ever. In 2024, Goldschmidt’s under% according to Statcast was 22.0% and rose to 27.1% last season. Subsequently, his flyball rate increased over the same time frame from 56.3% to 61.1%. The increase in flyball rate isn’t necessarily a concern in and of itself, as Goldschmidt has had similar flyball rates in some of his more productive seasons. The flyballs, combined with where the ball is being contacted, seem to have decreased much of Goldschmidt’s power. Year by year, since his MVP season, Goldschmidt has seen a decline in several secondary stats that indicate potential power output. xSLG xwOBA Barrel % 2023 0.447 0.367 12 2024 0.414 0.329 10.7 2025 0.403 0.328 7.9 By looking at expected stats, we eliminate the possibility that Goldschmidt has simply had bad luck. Instead, his reduction in production and power truly seems to be a product of a true decline. While in the Twins' recent past, the club has found success in signing aging sluggers such as Nelson Cruz and Jim Thome , Goldschmidt does not seem to be aging as gracefully. The production may level off and be similar in 2026 as it was in 2025, but at what cost for Goldschmidt’s next team, and is that cost worth it for the Twins? It seems unlikely that it would be wise for the Twins to go in the direction of Goldschmidt, even as desperate as they are for offensive production. The Twins will need to find treasure this offseason, but a Goldschmidt signing has a good chance of turning up fool’s gold. View the full article

The 2024 season was the last in which Shane Farrell was the Blue Jays’ scouting director, but the 2024 draft class was the second in a row from which the draftees have already started to show significant dividends. Although it is still early in all of these prospects’ professional careers, the 2025 season was able to show us some trends for Toronto’s early-round picks. This article was inspired by Cody Christie, who wrote a great piece about the Twins’ 2024 Draft Class on our sister site, Twins Daily. RHP Trey Yesavage (1st Round, 20th overall) The 2024 first-rounder for the Blue Jays really does not need to be talked about, as the 22-year-old burst onto the world stage with dominant performances in the 2025 playoffs. Yesavage was one of the more MLB-ready pitchers drafted in the first round, but his meteoric rise from Single-A Dunedin to starting Game 1 of the World Series is still extremely astonishing. He’s now the runaway favourite for the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year. Stock: To the Moon RHP Khal Stephen (2nd Round, 59th overall) - Traded to Guardians The Jays’ 2024 second-rounder was overshadowed by some big names in the system, but the big righty was performing as much as Yesavage at almost every step of the way. He, too, started off in Single-A, making it all the way to Double-A before getting shelved with a shoulder impingement. He eventually was traded for 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, but has still been in consideration for the bottom end of top 100 prospect lists. For the 2025 season, Stephen pitched just over 100 innings with a 2.53 ERA and a 2.60 FIP. Stock: Up LHP Johnny King (3rd Round, 95th overall) Johnny King was drafted out of high school as a raw 17-year-old and did not pitch until the start of the Florida Complex League. He adjusted rather quickly, dominating rookie ball hitters, striking out 41.8% of the hitters he faced. He was then promoted to Single-A Dunedin, where he continued his strikeout dominance, K-ing 38.1% of A-ball hitters, although his walk rate also jumped as he struggled to repeat his delivery. King definitely proved that his stuff was immaculate, and although he still needs to figure out his command and needs to develop a third pitch, he has also earned consideration to be a top-100 prospect. Stock: Way Up 3B/1B Sean Keys (4th Round, 125th overall) Keys was drafted out of Bucknell and immediately produced in 22 G and 98 PA in Single-A Dunedin in 2024. He showed off his strong plate discipline, walking over 13% of the time, leading to a 134 wRC+. He earned his promotion to High-A Vancouver, where he quietly produced a strong season, showing off his strengths well. Keys continued to get on base, producing a .365 OBP carried by a 16.3% walk rate. He also showed off some real power, with 19 homers, 22 doubles and a triple to give him a .191 ISO. He got a little unlucky in terms of BABIP, as did many of the hitters in Vancouver. He’s been looked at as a potential breakout candidate for 2026. Stock: Up OF Nick Mitchell (4th Round, 136th overall) - Traded to Guardians Nick Mitchell was the compensation pick for Matt Chapman, and the outfielder performed well in 2024 and was subsequently traded to the Guardians with Spencer Horwitz for Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin. I will not comment on his stock, given that he was not in the Jays organization at all this past season, but he performed well with the Guardians, posting a 122 wRC+ across Single and High-A. RHP Jackson Wentworth (5th Round, 158th overall) It was a mixed bag for Jackson Wentworth, who had stretches of absolute dominance and also periods where he really struggled. The righty out of Kansas State made 26 starts with a slightly above-average FIP, but was overshadowed by many of his teammates who were able to make the jump to Double-A or who dominated coming out of Single-A. Still, Wentworth only started 16 games in college, so showing the capability to go out there and pitch every six days, whilst taking on the challenge of going straight to High-A out of college, was still not an easy feat. His season didn’t do too much to hurt his stock, but also did not let him establish himself as one of the better pitching prospects for the Jays. Stock: Neither Up nor Down While the top picks from the Jays' 2024 draft class have all performed well, quite a few of their later-round picks are trending in the right direction as well. Later-round picks or undrafted free agents who were able to raise their stocks include: RHP Austin Cates (7th Round, 217th pick) Austin Cates has been viewed as a breakout candidate since his velo started to tick up late in the season and he pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP in five starts for Vancouver. OF Eddie Micheletti Jr. (8th Round, 247th pick) Eddie Micheletti Jr. was the best qualified hitter for the Vancouver Canadians, and although his defensive fit is questionable, he has shown strong power and plate discipline from the left-hand side. RHP Troy Guthrie (11th round, 337th overall) Trot Guthrie was the best pitcher for the championship-winning FCL Jays in the complex league, showing advanced command for a teenager. OF/2B J.R. Freethy (14th Round, 427th overall) Although he had an injury mid-way through the season, J.R. Freethy’s on-base ability earned him a promotion to Double-A, and he was also able to get a highlight piece from me. LHP Javen Coleman (UDFA) Javen Coleman was a strikeout machine for Dunedin and Vancouver, as the lefty reliever struck out over 38% of the batters he faced. He also threw an immaculate inning early in the season and almost had another on August 15, falling one strike short. The Blue Jays are beginning to develop a penchant for lefty arms, and Coleman is another example of such. Although most of these players may not have the impact that Trey Yesavage has already had, this season was another step in the right direction for the Jays’ drafting and development. After struggling to find success in the early parts of Shapiro and Atkins’ term with the Blue Jays, their stock is finally starting to rise in the minor leagues. View the full article

Sean McAdam of MassLive indicated the Red Sox are willing to spend beyond the first CBT threshold ($244 million) in 2026, “which would translate to them absorbing a modest financial loss. But with anything beyond that, there’s a reluctance to incur bigger deficits”. Cot’s Contracts estimates that the team’s 2026 payroll is currently $27.13 million below the first CBT threshold. Claiming that the Red Sox, who generated the fourth-highest revenue in baseball and have a dedicated national fanbase, are in financial distress is a tough pill to swallow. The Red Sox own majority stakes (80%) in New England Sports Network (NESN) and have one of the more lucrative local TV deals in the sport, further allowing them to mitigate revenue sharing protocols. Last week, when asked if the New York Yankees operated at a profit in 2025, owner Hal Steinbrenner responded, “I don’t want to get into. But that’s not a fair statement or an accurate statement.” The timing of McAdam's statement about the Red Sox and Steinbrenner’s comments isn’t a coincidence; if anything, it’s posturing ahead of the next CBA negotiations. Yes, free-agent contracts carry risk. Players typically enter free agency between the ages of 30-32, sometimes with their best years behind them. Teams pay for future performance with the uncertainty of injury risks and potential performance decline. However, spending money for the sake of spending limits roster and payroll flexibility for future needs. Sustainable competitiveness requires balancing homegrown talent with select free agent and trade acquisitions. The Red Sox's young core of Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, and Garrett Crochet are signed to long-term extensions. They just traded for Sonny Gray (and Johan Oviedo), which helps strengthen their rotation, but the team still has room to upgrade in the lineup and pitching staff. The AL East is currently in the midst of an arms race. After almost winning the World Series, the Blue Jays are eager to carry their momentum into next season, signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year $210 million contract. Despite injuries to key players, the Red Sox fielded a competitive team in 2025. They ended their three-year playoff drought but were overmatched by the Yankees in the AL Wild Card series, a team that spent $139 million more in luxury tax payroll. This disparity was evident in their pitching rotations. While the Yankees were led by aces Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, the Red Sox only had Garrett Crochet and had to turn to Brayan Bello and newcomer Connelly Early in Games 2 and 3. Granted, it’s only December, and top free agent targets like Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Schwarber remain on the market. The Red Sox’s future is bright, but failing to make significant upgrades through free agency will make it more challenging for the team to compete should they reach the playoffs. View the full article

Right-hander Zach Brzykcy lasted about a month on the Miami Marlins 40-man roster. The 26-year-old reliever was outrighted to Triple-A Jacksonville early Friday evening. Brzykcy was claimed off waivers from the Washington Nationals on November 6. He's coming off a miserable season against both Triple-A competition (9.39 ERA and 6.24 FIP in 23.0 IP) and MLB competition (9.00 ERA and 6.27 FIP in 23.0 IP). That being said, he showed a propensity for striking out righty batters at lower minor league levels. His arsenal includes a four-seam fastball, curveball and changeup. Because Brzykcy entered professional baseball in 2020 and has never previously been outrighted, he must accept the outright assignment and remain with the Marlins organization. If they went through the trouble of claiming him in the first place, it stands to reason that he'll be a non-roster invitee at big league spring training. Here is the updated Marlins roster, which is down to 39 players: The Marlins have expressed interest in a variety of MLB free agents, particularly relievers, corner infielders and corner outfielders. Now, they can make a signing without the need for a corresponding move. If no signing is imminent and their 40-man count remains at 39 entering Wednesday, they can participate in the major league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Here are some notable unprotected prospects from other organizations who may appeal to the Fish. View the full article

In episode 103 of Destination: The Show, the crew break down the forthcoming MLB Draft Lottery with the Twins having the second best odds at landing the number one overall pick. They walk through the mechanics of the lottery and how it works before digging into the implications of different picks and how they might impact the Twins bonus pool. The guys touch on the Twins Comp Round B and try and project what the Twins bonus pool might be assessing the potential slot values of their top 100 picks. 0:00 Intro 4:00 Housekeeping 4:35 Draft Lottery 7:57 How does the lottery work? 18:45 Twins odds to draft in different places and financial implications 27:00 Comp Round B pick 36:45 Twins math -- bonus preview 43:00 Listener Questions You can support the show by downloading it from wherever you get your podcasts, including iTunes and Spotify. If you enjoy the content, consider leaving us a five-star rating and review in addition to sharing or retweeting DTS-related content. You can follow us on Twitter @DTS_POD1, @Jeremynygaard, @J_D_Cameron, and @TheodoreTollef1. We’re now on Bluesky @destinationtheshow.bsky.social. You can also find full episodes and clips of our shows on our YouTube page @DestinationTheShow. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox stayed busy prior to the Winter Meetings, making another big trade following the Sonny Gray deal. On Dec. 4, they brought in their second new pitcher as the team shipped fan-favorite prospect Jhostynxon Garcia to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of a five-player trade that saw the team bring back talented but oft-injured hurler Johan Oviedo as the main acquisition. The official deal saw Garcia, who was Talk Sox’s number two prospect at the time, and pitcher Jesus Travieso traded for a package of Oviedo and prospects Tyler Samaniego and Adonys Guzman. The main return is clearly Oviedo, who is under team control for two more seasons and won’t turn 28 until March 2. Oviedo made nine starts in 2025 as he returned from Tommy John surgery, going 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. The right-hander struck out 42 batters while walking 23. What makes Oviedo an intriguing rotation option is his frame (6'6") and extension. His fastball was impressive during his short 2025 season thanks to it reaching an average of 95.5 mph paired with nearly six inches of tailing action. In a short sample last season, Oviedo also demonstrated an ability to limit hard contact, as his average exit velocity (87.6 mph), hard-hit percentage (35.3%) and barrel percentage (6.9%) would have ranked in the upper-third of the league had he qualified. Along with the fastball, Oviedo has four other pitches: a slider, curveball, sinker and changeup. Though relies heavily on his fastball and slider combination, as they made up 69% of his pitches in 2025. His pitch selection gets a bit interesting when broken down against left-handed and right-handed batters, as his slider sees a drop in usage against the former, being used just 26% of the time, while the curve jumps in usage to 22%. That changes with the latter, his slider becoming his most used pitch against right-handed batters at 38% and the curve down to just 10%. Along with that, Oviedo has showcased an ability to generate whiffs, getting batters to swing and miss 30% of the time last season. Batters in general only managed a .181 batting average off of him as well, showcasing the talent the Red Sox are interested in. Oviedo continues a trend for the Red Sox, who have made it a point to find pitchers with projectable frames and obvious areas of improvement or streamlining. The major issue besides health with Oviedo is his command. Last season, he had a 13.5% walk rate, and his career mark is up to 11%. Oviedo can be wild, throwing more pitches than necessary and walking a lot of batters, but should the Red Sox pitching lab manage to realize all his potential, we could see a breakout season from Oviedo. Samaniego was a 15th-round draft pick back in 2021 by the Pirates and will turn 27 at the end of January. Since being drafted, he has yet to make it past Double-A, though he missed time in 2024 and only made 13 appearances. This past season saw him appear in 30 games across four levels, most of them coming with Double-A Altoona where he had a 3.08 ERA across 26 1/3 innings. Samaniego is a left-handed reliever who will most likely open the season with Worcester, though will be on the 40-man roster as Pittsburgh added him to it in November to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Samaniego relies mostly on four pitches: a sinker, fastball, changeup and slider. His sinker is his most thrown pitch, averaging around 93.3 mph and being used heavily against left-handed batters at 67% of his pitch usage. Much like Oviedo, Samaniego seems to limit hard contact, his average exit velocity being just 85.7 mph and his hard-hit percentage being just 22.2%. And while he doesn’t strike batters out as much as Oviedo, he still gets his fair share of strikeouts (23.1%) thanks to a 31.8% whiff rate. Samaniego will serve as a depth reliever this season, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get some time in Boston depending on their need for left-handed pitching. He’s got the height of a pitcher the Red Sox are interested in, as he stands 6’4”, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they manage to get the velocity of his fastball up a tick or two. The final prospect acquired in the deal, Guzman, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2025 draft by Pittsburgh and is another young addition to the organization’s catching corps. Guzman is the latest young catcher (and second from the 2025 draft) to be acquired by Breslow this offseason. Guzman entering the draft was viewed as a glove-first catcher due to a swing that can often times be stiff and too pull-oriented, but he does have good pull-side power and plate discipline. Guzman played for the Arizona Wildcats in college after transferring from Boston College and hit .328/.411/.496 with a .907 OPS in 62 games. He also had 12 doubles, nine home runs and 44 RBIs. Defensively, he threw out 31% of potential base stealers. Baseball America even stated that "his arm remains one of the best in class three years later with excellent carry on his throws that should help control the running game". Guzman, who bats from the right side, only played in one game after getting drafted, but went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBIs. More than likely, he’ll open the season with Single-A Salem, but a promotion to Greenville shouldn’t be off the table at some point in 2026. In Garcia, the Red Sox gave up a potential power threat, but with the outfield currently as crowded as it is and with talks that Kristian Campbell is expected to play in the outfield full time, it seemed like the writing was on the wall for Garcia. The outfielder made his major-league debut with Boston in August this season, going 1-for-7 with a double and five strikeouts. Now with Pittsburgh, he’s likely to be battling for an Opening Day starting position in spring training. Travieso, on the other hand, is an interesting arm the Red Sox gave up. He won’t be turning 19 until the end of March. Signed out of Venezuela, Travieso made it up to Salem this season after opening the year in the Florida Complex League. With Salem, he would go 2-0 in seven appearances, six starts, and toss 25 2/3 innings. He struck out 38 in that span and walked just 11. Though, with the many young pitchers in the Red Sox system, it was only a matter of time before one was traded. To make room on the 40-man roster, the team designated pitcher Cooper Criswell for assignment. The 40-man roster is currently full. The Red Sox got better with the trade, taking from an area of strength and bringing in a guy with a ton of potential. Whether he reaches that potential is a different question, but the Red Sox hope Oviedo can pitch as his hulking frame suggests. If he can, the rotation may prove to be the team's biggest strength in 2026. View the full article

A former Minnesota Twins catching prospect is officially eligible to return to affiliated baseball, closing the chapter on one of the most confusing and controversial situations the organization has dealt with in recent years. Derek Bender, a sixth-round pick in 2024, was released by the Twins in September 2024 after allegations surfaced that he tipped pitches to opposing hitters during a Florida State League doubleheader. Major League Baseball confirmed to The Athletic that his discipline has been served and he can now sign with any club. Bender, who missed the entire 2025 season due to what MLB described as his “conduct,” issued a broad apology through the MLB Players Association. His statement did not directly address whether he gave away pitches, yet it showed a player grappling with the end of a draining year. “After further reflection, I would like to apologize to the Minnesota Twins organization, my former teammates and coaches, and the fans, for my actions at the conclusion of the 2024 season,” Bender said. He added that he had been struggling with his mental health, noting, “Over the past year, I have been working hard, both on and off the field, to become the best player and teammate I can be.” In a February interview with The Athletic, however, Bender pushed back strongly on the core accusation. Asked directly if he gave pitches away, he responded, “No.” He went even further, saying, “And I’ll live with this until the day I die. I never gave pitches away. I never tried to give the opposing team an advantage against my own team.” At the same time, he acknowledged the physical and mental exhaustion he felt near the end of the season, mentioning joking conversations with teammates about errors and the shared feeling that “everybody’s ready to go home.” The league never publicly stated what conduct triggered Bender’s discipline, and investigators did not find gambling involvement of any kind. A league source told The Athletic that MLB had been examining a potential violation of rule 21(a), which covers intentionally losing games. A confirmed violation would have resulted in a lifetime ban, but the negotiated agreement sidestepped a formal ruling and allowed Bender to return after serving a season long suspension. With the matter now resolved, Bender has started contacting clubs to express his interest in returning. He spent last year with the Brockton Rox of the Frontier League, playing 92 games while hitting .282 with 11 home runs and 54 runs batted in. Despite the turmoil, he expressed a renewed commitment to the sport. “This whole situation made me fall out of love with baseball,” Bender said. “But I realized that I want to win more baseball games in my career. I love baseball. I love winning. I love being a part of a team.” For now, Bender’s future depends on whether an organization is willing to take a chance on a player trying to move past a complicated ending to his time with the Twins. But at the very least, the door to affiliated baseball is open again. View the full article

Minnesota’s offseason has been underway for more than two months, but as the Winter Meetings draw near, the Twins still appear to be wrestling with their direction. That uncertainty isn’t just external perception either. According to MLB insider Ken Rosenthal, the organization’s internal conversations remain murky. As he put it on Foul Territory, the Twins “are a mystery” because “there is not clarity yet on how they are going to operate this offseason.” Rosenthal emphasized this wasn’t simply a matter of the team keeping plans quiet. “I mean clarity within their own organization. I don’t know that they know what they’re going to do. They’re working through it. What I was told this week is that they’ll have clarity by the winter meetings. OK. It’s probably a good idea to have clarity by the winter meetings.” That kind of ambiguity is unusual for this point in the calendar, especially with the annual gathering of front offices set to take place next week in Orlando. The Twins have had over two months since the regular season ended to prepare their approach, and yet the franchise’s posture remains unsettled. Much of that stems from Minnesota’s stumbling ownership transition. The failed sale and the arrival of still-unnamed minority investors appear to be casting a shadow over budget decisions. Rosenthal noted that internal opinions are diverging. “It seems to me that there are factions in the Twins organization that want to start building the team back up again. Good idea since you’ve alienated your fan base. And then there are ownership questions. They just took on the two new investors. How much are they going to spend? All of that.” Amid that backdrop, the club’s most significant decisions still loom. What will Minnesota do with its remaining star-level players? Rosenthal wondered aloud: “So, the question then becomes ... where are they going to go? Which way are they going to go? I don’t necessarily expect them to trade (Joe) Ryan, (Byron Buxton), maybe Pablo Lopez.” If the side pushing for a roster rebound wins out, the Twins could arrive at spring training with their core intact. But if the payroll-cutting faction gains control, then difficult choices become more likely. As Rosenthal put it, “But to keep going backwards, if they do that, then yes, Ryan becomes available. Buxton becomes available. They’re probably more valuable separately than they would be (packaged) together.” The clock is ticking. With the Winter Meetings just days away, the Twins need to settle on a path that not only clarifies their competitive intentions but also signals to fans that the organization is finally ready to move forward. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins are still in sell mode, after their fire sale at the 2025 trade deadline. One of their two top starters, Pablo López and Joe Ryan, could be moved to alleviate their payroll pinch, even after the team reduced spending by roughly $30 million from 2023 to 2024 and by another few million in 2025.. If either López or Ryan is dealt, the Twins' star center fielder, Byron Buxton, is likely to be moved, as well. People in Buxton’s camp have indicated that, despite previous public comments to the contrary, he is willing to waive his no-trade clause to a contending team, as first reported by Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Buxton has been very loyal to the Twins, but even the most devoted players can have their patience tested when their team tears down a roster the way the Twins have. Not every team looking to contend in 2026 needs a star center fielder such as Buxton, but the Brewers could use his help. The Brewers have been playing musical chairs in center field the last two seasons. In 2024, Blake Perkins played 119 games, hitting .240/.316/.332 with six home runs and 32 RBIs over 434 plate appearances. Perkins played more of a backup role this year, and Jackson Chourio ended up playing the most games in center in 2025, with 89. Chourio’s bat was still solid in his sophomore season, with a .270/.308/.463 slash line, 21 home runs, 78 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases, but he played shaky defense compared to how he'd done in left field in 2024. Chourio went from 12 Defensive Runs Saved in 2024 to -4 this season, according to Sports Info Solutions. The sudden drop off when moving to a more demanding defensive position is a bit concerning, and Buxton had -5 DRS this season with the Twins. But DRS is not the all-telling stat in defense. Buxton still had plenty of highlight-reel catches in his 118 games played in center field this year. He also has the hardware to back it up, with a Gold and Platinum Glove awarded to him back in 2017. If the Brewers move forward with pursuing Buxton, moving Chourio back to left field would mean finding Isaac Collins a new defensive home, too. Fortunately for Collins, he is versatile with his defensive positioning, having spent several games at second and third base as well. Even with Buxton on board, it's easy to envision finding time for him, Chourio, Collins, and Sal Frelick, with Perkins's role receding to a purer defense-only gig. Alternatively, of course, someone in that mix could be dealt away. So what kind of trade package would it take for the Twins to be willing to move Buxton, if his no-trade clause gets waived? It’s safe to say the Brewers' top two prospects, Jesús Made and Luis Peña, are off limits, and the Twins are not in dire need for middle infield help in their farm system. A majors-ready player such as Collins could be someone the Twins would want to help their outfield depth, especially with his hometown connections to the Twin Cities suburb of Maple Grove. If Buxton does enter the trade market, it might be a package of Collins and a prospect or two that gets a deal done. Pitchers Bishop Letson and Logan Henderson are the types of arms the Twins like, but Minnesota has a bit of a logjam of young pitching. They have other needs the Brewers' farm system could also address. The positions where the Twins need the most help are first base, catcher, and the bullpen. While the Twins will likely look within their own farm system for relief help, they do not have many top-rated prospects in the upper levels of the minors for first base or catcher, which would make Jeferson Quero and the Brewers' first-round pick from the 2025 draft, Andrew Fischer, ideal trade targets for Minnesota. If a Buxton trade becomes a possibility, then it’s almost certain the Twins would trade their current starting catcher, Ryan Jeffers, as well. Jeffers is a year away from free agency, and with the Twins' current financial status, he's not expected to re-sign after the 2026 season. The Twins nabbed a top catching prospect, Eduardo Tait, from the Phillies at the trade deadline for Jhoan Duran, but Tait is still a couple of years away from the big leagues. Therefore, Quero would be a priority target for Minnesota. He is close to ready for the show, and would be able to take a jump into a starting role with Jeffers gone. Quero was limited to just 69 games in 2025 due to a hamstring strain that delayed the start of his season until mid-May and a shoulder injury in August. He put up decent numbers between the Arizona Complex League (on rehab assignments) and Triple-A St. Paul: a .271/.361/.478 slash line, 11 home runs, 57 RBIs, a 10.9% walk rate, and a 13.6% strikeout rate. Quero may not be ready for the starting role on a competitive team like the Brewers, but if the Twins truly intend to strip away their best and highest-paid players, then a player of Quero’s caliber would end up being thrown into the starting catcher role without concern for the long-term outcome. Fischer, on the other hand, will still be a year or two away from the majors and will try out between first and third base. The Twins don't have a first baseman ranked within their top-30 prospect list, per MLB Pipeline. Nor have they sought out a first baseman to develop internally in the last five years. Fischer may have limited playing time in pro ball, but his profile may be exactly what the Twins need to stop their own first base gap. Jeff Passan recently reviewed the case on Buxton’s availability and put his trade probability at 35% with López and Ryan both sitting at 50%. The Brewers were not a team listed as a landing spot for Buxton, but they do have the prospect capital to acquire him—more so than other listed teams, such as the Atlanta Braves or Cincinnati Reds. Much depends on whether the Brewers would be a team for whom Buxton would waive his no-trade clause. It's his desire to win that is pushing him toward an exit from Minnesota, though, and few teams offer a clearer path to consistent winning than Milwaukee. Still, if Buxton does become available, a Brewers outfield with Chourio in left, Buxton in center, and Sal Frelick in right might be the best defensive outfield in baseball. More to the point, adding 30-home runs, 30-steals potential into a lineup that had only two 20-homer hitters would put the Brewers over the offensive hump in the National League Central. Buxton has one of the very few things the Brewers currently lack. If they can snare him in a trade, they might be one step closer to unseating the Dodgers as National League champions. View the full article

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The Kansas City Royals currently live in the enviable position of having “excess” starting pitching. As you may have heard, though, “You can never have too much pitching”. The Royals certainly clung to this old adage during the 2018 MLB draft when they selected pitchers with their first five picks and eight of their first ten picks. Those first five picks were: 1st Round (18th overall): Brady Singer, RHP (Florida) He was traded for Jonathan India last offseason. 1st Round (33rd overall): Jackson Kowar, RHP (Florida) He is now with the Mariners and dealing with injuries. 1st Round (34th overall): Daniel Lynch IV, LHP (Virginia) He pitched 131 innings in 2022; now dealing with injuries and became a reliever. 1st Round (40th overall): Kris Bubic, LHP (Stanford) He pitched 130 innings in 2021 and 2022, then went down with Tommy John surgery in 2023. He made a strong return in 2025 only to miss the second half with a rotator cuff strain 2nd Round (#58th overall): Jonathan Bowlan, RHP (Memphis) Bowlan finally has pitched more than three innings in a year reaching 44 1/3 innings pitched as a reliever in 2025. All five have made contributions to the major-league team, but not quite at the level anyone expected or at least hoped. Singer was meant to be the new Number Two in the rotation, but he has not lived up to the hype acting as an innings eating Number Three or Four guy. Kowar, Lynch, and Bubic have all dealt with a myriad of injuries in their time with the club while Bowlan took a little longer to debut. With Singer already traded away in an attempt to fill the hole at second base with Jonathan India, Lynch, and especially Bubic, have managed to generate enough results to garner interest on the trade market this off-season. Bubic has been the hot name given his 2.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 116 innings pitched before going down with the rotator cuff injury. He’s in the last year of arbitration before free agency with an estimated salary of $6.0 million per MLB Trade Rumors. The Royals have a major need for a corner outfielder and JJ Piccolo has mentioned a willingness to trade from their current stock of starting pitching to fill this need akin to the Singer-India trade. The Royals were not terribly far from the playoffs in 2025 finishing six games back from the division-winning Cleveland Guardians and five games back from the second American League Wild Card spot. The big stain on the season was a horrific June when they went 8-18 losing six in a row twice and eight of their last nine that month. They also did not play well against Cleveland and Detroit, the top two teams, going 5-8 and 4-9 against them, respectively. This could suggest to some that they are not in as good of a position as they might think, but owner John Sherman is set to spend a similar amount on payroll this year in an effort to return to the postseason. If I’m JJ Piccolo, I’m looking to move Bubic. The Royals were dead last by Wins Above Average at both left and right field in 2025 with a -2.6 and -3.9, respectively, per Baseball Reference. Drew Waters and John Rave rotated between the two while they tried to get Jac Caglianone’s bat in the lineup via right field to spark the sputtering offense to little effect. Mike Yastrzemski, who had the second most plate appearances in right field, is no longer with the team, so the Royals desperately need to make an addition here in the corner outfield. Projections for Bubic from Steamer and Fangraphs Depth Charts have him pitching 155 innings with 9 Wins, a 3.79 ERA, and rate of 8.6 strikeout/9 innings which is good for about 2.5 Wins Above Replacement. Trade Option 1 - St. Louis Cardinals Royals Get: Lars Nootbaar, Left Field 2025 Stats: .248 AVG/.345 OBP/.409 SLG; 1.7 WAR 2026 Steamer Projection: 444 PA - 52 R, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB Cardinals Get: Kris Bubic, LHP and Angel Zerpa, LHP Bubic 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR Zerpa 2026 Steamer Projection: 61 IP - 3 Wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 56 SO, 0.4 WAR Nootbaar has two years of control left, entering his second year of arbitration in 2026 with an estimated salary of $5.7M per MLB Trade Rumors. Even though these two teams are intrastate rivals, they may be able to hold their nose for this deal as it is purely need-for-need as the Cardinals are desperate for starting pitching after dealing Sonny Gray and the Royals need their corner outfield upgraded. Nootbaar had a noticeable down year in 2025 and dealt with an intercostal and rib injury that made him miss 18 games. This was likely bothering him before he officially went on the IL at the end of June as he had a batting average of .169 in June, .219 in July, then popped back up to.284 in August. His barrel percentage (how often the batter hits the ideal launch angle and exit velocity), exit velocity, and strikeout rate stayed consistent from 2024, but he hit balls in the air at a much higher rate getting under it 30.2 percent of the time compared to his career 23.9 percent rate and 19 percent rate in 2023 and 2024. Nootbaar still had an above average year for plate discipline and quality of contact overall, two things that the Royals strive for with their hitters. Notably he had a 11-percent walk rate (80th percentile of MLB) and a 50-percent hard-hit rate (87th percentile in MLB). He also strikes out 20% of the time, right around MLB average, and maintains an above average bat speed which leads to higher quality contact. Zerpa has been mostly a reliever with a couple of spot starts for the Royals as needed. He sports a sinker-slider combo to generate a 99th percentile ground ball rate of 63.7%. His fastball velocity sits at 96 MPH from the left side and is still only 26 years old. He won’t hit free agency until 2029. Trade Option 2 - Chicago Cubs Royals Get: Owen Caissie, Left Field, Jefferson Rojas, Second Base Owen Caissie 2025 Stats: .237 AVG/.315 OBP/.405 SLG; 0.5 WAR 2026 Steamer Projection: 269 PA - 31 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB Jefferson Rojas 2025 (High-A, AA): 471 PA - 67 R, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 19 SB .236 AVG/.343 OBP/.387 SLG Cubs Get: LHP Kris Bubic, C Blake Mitchell, RHP Felix Arronde Kris Bubic, LHP 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR Blake Mitchell, Catcher 2025 (CPX and High-A): 255 PA - 28 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 SB .218 AVG/.390 OBP/.320 SLG Felix Arronde, RHP 2025 (High-A): 128.2 IP - 5 Wins, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 101 SO Caissie and Rojas are two of the Cubs’ Top 5 prospects and fill two needs for the Royals at left field and second base. Now, Caissie is the only one ready to slide into the lineup on opening day in 2026 as Rojas will likely be major league ready in 2027, but Rojas is only 20 years old and has at least a 50 Future Value scouting grade - good for about 2 Wins Above Replacement much better than the negative WAR that Jonathan India and Michael Massey were able to provide. The Royals signed India to a one-year contract for 2026 to fill the second base gap for at least one more year. Caissie is MLB Pipeline’s top prospect for the Cubs with 30-homer power and producing well against older competition throughout his time in the minors. The 23-year-old had a small part in 2025 in the majors only appearing in 12 games and striking out 40% of the time in 27 plate appearances, but there’s always an adjustment period. The great power comes from a long swing that does elevate his strikeout rate even clocking in close to 30% in the minors. His modest fielding will keep him in a corner outfield spot, right where the Royals need him. Rojas will be turning 21 next year and has spent most of his time at shortstop in the minors. As he adds strength, he will be more likely to shift over to second base, especially with Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him and the Royals need for at least league average at the position. Scouts love his swing and will need to make some adjustments to breaking balls, as do all prospects. He doesn’t strike out a ton (a hallmark of Royals baseball) and will not be hitting lots of home runs, but all the Royals need him to do is get on base and play good defense. Blake Mitchell is the Royals top prospect aside from the soon-to-graduate Carter Jensen. Drafted 8th overall out of high school in 2023, many Royals fans were shocked to see such a risk taken. A broken hamate sidelined him for a portion of the year, only playing in 60 games, but he showed his likely three-true outcome path in the majors hitting for low average and a high walk and strikeout rate. He has good power and a strong arm but can struggle to throw runners out. With Salvador Perez and Jensen ahead of him, it’s time to trade from a position of strength. He should be knocking on the Cubs’ door in 2027. Arronde had a great year in High-A, improving on his total innings, Wins, and ERA from 2024. His arsenal includes a fastball that sits around 94mph, an average slider, and a great split-changeup. He’s still young and needs to add strength but has shown the durability for being a starter, likely to slot in at a number 3 or 4. If he doesn’t improve a ton on his slider, he’s a great closer candidate in a few years with that changeup. Teams always need starting pitching and there are several trade candidates out there for the Royals to pursue. If they choose not to go the trade route and hang on to their excess starting pitching, it could be a safer option to sign a cheaper free agent akin to Mike Yastrzemski to hold the line one more year before giving a chance to Gavin Cross or Carson Roccaforte. The winter meetings are coming up soon, perhaps there is room for a deal or two. Should the Royals deal Kris Bubic this offseason after his return and All-Star performance? Do either of these packages make sense? View the full article

The Kansas City Royals currently live in the enviable position of having “excess” starting pitching. As you may have heard, though, “You can never have too much pitching”. The Royals certainly clung to this old adage during the 2018 MLB draft when they selected pitchers with their first five picks and eight of their first ten picks. Those first five picks were: 1st Round (18th overall): Brady Singer, RHP (Florida) He was traded for Jonathan India last offseason. 1st Round (33rd overall): Jackson Kowar, RHP (Florida) He is now with the Mariners and dealing with injuries. 1st Round (34th overall): Daniel Lynch IV, LHP (Virginia) He pitched 131 innings in 2022; now dealing with injuries and became a reliever. 1st Round (40th overall): Kris Bubic, LHP (Stanford) He pitched 130 innings in 2021 and 2022, then went down with Tommy John surgery in 2023. He made a strong return in 2025 only to miss the second half with a rotator cuff strain 2nd Round (#58th overall): Jonathan Bowlan, RHP (Memphis) Bowlan finally has pitched more than three innings in a year reaching 44 1/3 innings pitched as a reliever in 2025. All five have made contributions to the major-league team, but not quite at the level anyone expected or at least hoped. Singer was meant to be the new Number Two in the rotation, but he has not lived up to the hype acting as an innings eating Number Three or Four guy. Kowar, Lynch, and Bubic have all dealt with a myriad of injuries in their time with the club while Bowlan took a little longer to debut. With Singer already traded away in an attempt to fill the hole at second base with Jonathan India, Lynch, and especially Bubic, have managed to generate enough results to garner interest on the trade market this off-season. Bubic has been the hot name given his 2.55 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 116 innings pitched before going down with the rotator cuff injury. He’s in the last year of arbitration before free agency with an estimated salary of $6.0 million per MLB Trade Rumors. The Royals have a major need for a corner outfielder and JJ Piccolo has mentioned a willingness to trade from their current stock of starting pitching to fill this need akin to the Singer-India trade. The Royals were not terribly far from the playoffs in 2025 finishing six games back from the division-winning Cleveland Guardians and five games back from the second American League Wild Card spot. The big stain on the season was a horrific June when they went 8-18 losing six in a row twice and eight of their last nine that month. They also did not play well against Cleveland and Detroit, the top two teams, going 5-8 and 4-9 against them, respectively. This could suggest to some that they are not in as good of a position as they might think, but owner John Sherman is set to spend a similar amount on payroll this year in an effort to return to the postseason. If I’m JJ Piccolo, I’m looking to move Bubic. The Royals were dead last by Wins Above Average at both left and right field in 2025 with a -2.6 and -3.9, respectively, per Baseball Reference. Drew Waters and John Rave rotated between the two while they tried to get Jac Caglianone’s bat in the lineup via right field to spark the sputtering offense to little effect. Mike Yastrzemski, who had the second most plate appearances in right field, is no longer with the team, so the Royals desperately need to make an addition here in the corner outfield. Projections for Bubic from Steamer and Fangraphs Depth Charts have him pitching 155 innings with 9 Wins, a 3.79 ERA, and rate of 8.6 strikeout/9 innings which is good for about 2.5 Wins Above Replacement. Trade Option 1 - St. Louis Cardinals Royals Get: Lars Nootbaar, Left Field 2025 Stats: .248 AVG/.345 OBP/.409 SLG; 1.7 WAR 2026 Steamer Projection: 444 PA - 52 R, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB Cardinals Get: Kris Bubic, LHP and Angel Zerpa, LHP Bubic 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR Zerpa 2026 Steamer Projection: 61 IP - 3 Wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 56 SO, 0.4 WAR Nootbaar has two years of control left, entering his second year of arbitration in 2026 with an estimated salary of $5.7M per MLB Trade Rumors. Even though these two teams are intrastate rivals, they may be able to hold their nose for this deal as it is purely need-for-need as the Cardinals are desperate for starting pitching after dealing Sonny Gray and the Royals need their corner outfield upgraded. Nootbaar had a noticeable down year in 2025 and dealt with an intercostal and rib injury that made him miss 18 games. This was likely bothering him before he officially went on the IL at the end of June as he had a batting average of .169 in June, .219 in July, then popped back up to.284 in August. His barrel percentage (how often the batter hits the ideal launch angle and exit velocity), exit velocity, and strikeout rate stayed consistent from 2024, but he hit balls in the air at a much higher rate getting under it 30.2 percent of the time compared to his career 23.9 percent rate and 19 percent rate in 2023 and 2024. Nootbaar still had an above average year for plate discipline and quality of contact overall, two things that the Royals strive for with their hitters. Notably he had a 11-percent walk rate (80th percentile of MLB) and a 50-percent hard-hit rate (87th percentile in MLB). He also strikes out 20% of the time, right around MLB average, and maintains an above average bat speed which leads to higher quality contact. Zerpa has been mostly a reliever with a couple of spot starts for the Royals as needed. He sports a sinker-slider combo to generate a 99th percentile ground ball rate of 63.7%. His fastball velocity sits at 96 MPH from the left side and is still only 26 years old. He won’t hit free agency until 2029. Trade Option 2 - Chicago Cubs Royals Get: Owen Caissie, Left Field, Jefferson Rojas, Second Base Owen Caissie 2025 Stats: .237 AVG/.315 OBP/.405 SLG; 0.5 WAR 2026 Steamer Projection: 269 PA - 31 R, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 3 SB Jefferson Rojas 2025 (High-A, AA): 471 PA - 67 R, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 19 SB .236 AVG/.343 OBP/.387 SLG Cubs Get: LHP Kris Bubic, C Blake Mitchell, RHP Felix Arronde Kris Bubic, LHP 2026 Steamer Projection: 155 IP - 9 Wins, 3.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 148 SO; 2.5 WAR Blake Mitchell, Catcher 2025 (CPX and High-A): 255 PA - 28 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 SB .218 AVG/.390 OBP/.320 SLG Felix Arronde, RHP 2025 (High-A): 128.2 IP - 5 Wins, 2.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 101 SO Caissie and Rojas are two of the Cubs’ Top 5 prospects and fill two needs for the Royals at left field and second base. Now, Caissie is the only one ready to slide into the lineup on opening day in 2026 as Rojas will likely be major league ready in 2027, but Rojas is only 20 years old and has at least a 50 Future Value scouting grade - good for about 2 Wins Above Replacement much better than the negative WAR that Jonathan India and Michael Massey were able to provide. The Royals signed India to a one-year contract for 2026 to fill the second base gap for at least one more year. Caissie is MLB Pipeline’s top prospect for the Cubs with 30-homer power and producing well against older competition throughout his time in the minors. The 23-year-old had a small part in 2025 in the majors only appearing in 12 games and striking out 40% of the time in 27 plate appearances, but there’s always an adjustment period. The great power comes from a long swing that does elevate his strikeout rate even clocking in close to 30% in the minors. His modest fielding will keep him in a corner outfield spot, right where the Royals need him. Rojas will be turning 21 next year and has spent most of his time at shortstop in the minors. As he adds strength, he will be more likely to shift over to second base, especially with Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him and the Royals need for at least league average at the position. Scouts love his swing and will need to make some adjustments to breaking balls, as do all prospects. He doesn’t strike out a ton (a hallmark of Royals baseball) and will not be hitting lots of home runs, but all the Royals need him to do is get on base and play good defense. Blake Mitchell is the Royals top prospect aside from the soon-to-graduate Carter Jensen. Drafted 8th overall out of high school in 2023, many Royals fans were shocked to see such a risk taken. A broken hamate sidelined him for a portion of the year, only playing in 60 games, but he showed his likely three-true outcome path in the majors hitting for low average and a high walk and strikeout rate. He has good power and a strong arm but can struggle to throw runners out. With Salvador Perez and Jensen ahead of him, it’s time to trade from a position of strength. He should be knocking on the Cubs’ door in 2027. Arronde had a great year in High-A, improving on his total innings, Wins, and ERA from 2024. His arsenal includes a fastball that sits around 94mph, an average slider, and a great split-changeup. He’s still young and needs to add strength but has shown the durability for being a starter, likely to slot in at a number 3 or 4. If he doesn’t improve a ton on his slider, he’s a great closer candidate in a few years with that changeup. Teams always need starting pitching and there are several trade candidates out there for the Royals to pursue. If they choose not to go the trade route and hang on to their excess starting pitching, it could be a safer option to sign a cheaper free agent akin to Mike Yastrzemski to hold the line one more year before giving a chance to Gavin Cross or Carson Roccaforte. The winter meetings are coming up soon, perhaps there is room for a deal or two. Should the Royals deal Kris Bubic this offseason after his return and All-Star performance? Do either of these packages make sense? View the full article