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Following Thursday's Spring Breakout game, Marlins acting manager Jeff Conine and pitching prospects Karson Milbrandt and Aiden May speak about the experience. View the full article

Coming into spring training, there was reason to believe that Bailey Ober could rebound this year. Last season never felt right. He was not fully healthy, his velocity was down, and his results suffered. The hope was that he’d get back to full strength, push his fastball toward 91 MPH, and let the rest of his arsenal do the work that has made him a reliable starter in the past. Ober has never relied on overpowering velocity. His game is built on command, execution, and pitch sequencing. When all of those elements are working together, he can be far more dangerous than the raw numbers suggest. Back in 2024, Ober’s fastball averaged 91 to 92 MPH, and he could move and locate the ball well enough to miss plenty of bats that way. In 2025, a season marked by health issues and inconsistency, it dropped closer to 90 MPH. That decline might seem minor on paper, but for a pitcher like Ober, even a single mile per hour can make his off-speed and breaking pitches less deceptive. Over time, these small drops can translate into harder contact and fewer strikeouts, which is precisely what happened last season. So far this spring, instead of bouncing back, his fastball has continued to drift lower. In his first outing, it averaged 89.9 MPH, a modest dip that could be explained as early-season pacing. Pitchers often need a start or two to ramp up, and coaches monitor pitch counts carefully, so his first outing did not raise alarms. In the second start, it fell to 88.8 MPH, a more noticeable decline that suggested the drop might not be about ramping up. In his third start on Tuesday, Ober’s fastball velocity dropped again, averaging 88.2 MPH and topping out at just 89.9. Each start has shown regression rather than progression. It's not just about velocity, either. Ober’s effectiveness also depends on how well his pitch mix is playing. In that third outing, he generated only three whiffs on 58 pitches, which was a significant decrease from seven whiffs on fewer pitches in the second start. Combined with the decline in fastball velocity, it suggests that something fundamental is off. Ober’s fastball, despite over 7 feet of extension, is not going to blow hitters away, so even minor drops magnify mistakes and lead to harder contact and/or fewer strikeouts. His changeup and breaking balls, which usually play off each other to create deception, are less effective when the fastball loses life. Spin rates, while not drastically different, have also ticked down slightly across the board. Looking at the bigger picture, these small changes over multiple seasons add up. The year-over-year velocity decline, coupled with far fewer swing-and-miss and slightly reduced pitch quality, raises real questions about Ober’s health and readiness with Opening Day just one week away. It's possible this is simply a cautious ramp-up, but it is hard to ignore the gradual pattern stretching from 2024 to now—especially because, even as he professes not to be concerned, Ober is at a loss to explain his inability to ratchet the stuff back up. For the Twins, Ober’s struggles could have larger implications. The rotation already has questions, with Pablo López out for the year and David Festa unavailable to begin the season. Losing Ober (or having him pitch at less than 100 percent) adds another layer of uncertainty. The Twins may need to prepare contingency plans if he can't return to form quickly, which could affect everything from bullpen usage to early-season matchup strategies. Ober’s next start will be crucial. If he can climb back toward 90 to 91 MPH and generate swing-and-miss like he has in the past, it may indicate that the early-spring dip was nothing more than a cautious ramp-up. But if he remains in the high 80s or continues to trend downward, concerns heading into Opening Day will only grow. It's a storyline worth watching closely, with the Twins set to take the field in less than a week, meaning there’s very little time to determine whether Ober is ready to pitch at full strength to start the season. At this point, this situation is less about surface-level stats and more about the underlying signs. Velocity, whiffs, and spin rates all point to a pitcher who is not fully locked in yet. The hope is that with a full ramp-up, he’ll regain the form that made him a dependable starter. But the pattern across three starts and multiple seasons cannot be ignored, and for Ober and the Twins, the clock is ticking. View the full article

Early in spring training, as players were getting a feel for the ABS challenge system and the contours of the new zone created thereby, most teams—including the Brewers—allowed their hitters to challenge at will. The Crew ran out of challenges early in games more than once in the first fortnight of Cactus League games, which mildly exasperated manager Pat Murphy, but he waited until nearly the middle of the preseason schedule to crack down on the strategic approaches of players to the system. As other teams have done the same thing, the global challenge rate has come down sharply. Early in the spring, hitters were challenging roughly 1 out of every 15 called strikes. For the last week, the average has been just under 1 in every 25 such pitches. This was inevitable. Once everyone has a handle on the best usage of the system, it's important to learn when not to challenge a call that feels borderline. Game situation—relative score, count, base-out situation, inning, and whether or not the team has both of its challenges remaining—has to inform each choice about whether or not to challenge a call, rather than the batter's simple perception. Withholding some challenges to ensure that the team still has the right to mount one at a critical moment is part of every team's gameplan; it just wasn't part of most teams' early conversations during games that don't count. Still, it's an important trend, because how often the league's batters challenge as a whole matters quite a bit to the Brewers. Though William Contreras has become synonymous with the catcher position for the Crew (and can hardly be optimized as a framer a second time), the team has a reputation over a decade old for improving the framing of catchers. They win at the margins of the strike zone, including by stealing some strikes on pitches that shouldn't be thus called. The ABS challenge system threatens that advantage, and the magnitude of value the Brewers are likely to lose is proportional to the frequency with which the league's batters tend to challenge calls. The Brewers were eighth-best in baseball last year at getting called strikes when a batter took a pitch in the shadow zones, as defined by Statcast's Attack Zones model. It's important to know where they got most of those calls, though, because strikes can be stolen more safely if they're plucked from zones in which batters are less likely to challenge. Here's the heat map showing where the Brewers most often got those borderline strikes in 2025: That's a pretty standard and stereotypical heat map. It's easier to frame pitches at the bottom of the zone than to do so at the top, but batters also swing more often at high pitches, anyway, so the pitch up there is usually thrown with the goal of getting a whiff or a weak fly ball, rather than in pursuit of a called strike. Those are supposed to come at the bottom of the zone. For many of the same reasons, hitters challenge more often near the bottom of the zone than near the top—but not by as much as the heat map above might imply. Hitters (and pitchers and catchers) are still getting accustomed to the new upper and lower bounds of the bespoke strike zones assigned to each batter, based on their height. The edges of the plate don't move, but what's high, what's low, and what hits the zone between those regions is newly defined—and still a bit of a mystery. The top of the zone seems to have come down a bit, but the bottom edge doesn't seem to have moved much for most batters. As a result, the Brewers might be able to hold onto some of their slightly out-of-zone called strikes for a while. Hitters will be wary of challenges on low pitches, where the success rate hasn't been very good and they're not as certain as they are about pitches inside and outside. Contreras needs to continue to excel at bringing up those pitches nipping at the knees of batters, but that shouldn't be a problem. In this way, fewer challenges might be good news for the Crew. On the other hand, though, notice in that first chart that the challenge rate for catchers has been nearly flat throughout the spring. For the most patient team in baseball, that gives the Crew some concrete information. They should expect opposing catchers to challenge about 1 of every 50 pitches they take for a ball. That's why, so far this spring, they've experienced among the most sheer overturns against them, from both batters and catchers. They'll have to negotiate this aspect throughout the season; it might eventually need to dictate some minor changes in their approaches. The Brewers play a specific brand of baseball, and can't afford to reorganize themselves every time the league tweaks a rule. That's for richer teams to do. The Crew needs to find ways to tailor their existing systems to new wrinkles, but never throw out those systems in favor of less efficient ones; that would be self-defeating. All spring, they've monitored these trends throughout the league, and they'll have to continue doing so—but it can't be the overriding consideration as they shape their plans to win games. View the full article

In a perfect world, you could fly to the ballpark every day to watch your favorite team fire a perfect game against their chief rival. Your favorite pitcher would never give up a hit or a run, and you'd win every game by 18 runs. But that would be dreadfully boring, after no more than a week. I even think you'd get sick of flying. Gravity defines us as a species. So does adversity. Without pressure and difficulty, there would be no gratification in the grace and victory that make sports fun. Shota Imanaga is perfect, for this blessedly imperfect world. He's a fierce, intelligent, crafty competitor on the mound, but he never invites you to forget that baseball is difficult. He doesn't throw that hard. He gives up home runs in bunches at times. Last season, he struggled mightily down the stretch and was virtually unpitchable in the Division Series against the Brewers. He's back for 2026, but the Cubs (wisely) ensured that he would be no more than their fourth starter heading into the year. The Cactus League season has been no kinder to Imanaga, results-wise, than was the end of 2025. He racked up eight strikeouts against the Angels on Tuesday, but even that was no spotless outing. For the spring, he has a 4.85 ERA. He's given up five home runs, and though he's only walked one batter, the biggest worry for most Cubs fans—that opponents will tee off on Imanaga in a way that constantly seems to confirm supporters' secret dread that he's been figured out—has not been assuaged at all. To those fans most in crisis, I offer this consolation: Imanaga has some tricks up his sleeve. As has already been thoroughly documented here (and elsewhere), Imanaga is throwing harder this spring. That matters. As much as velocity has become overrated in the modern game, it's inarguably important, and Imanaga's heater is humming in at 92.5 MPH this spring. That's up by almost 2 MPH from last year, when it was clear (especially after the All-Star break) that he never really got right in the wake of an early-May hamstring strain. He's retained the ride on his heater, too, which is as important to his overall effectiveness as the sheer speed. Imanaga has also made a small but significant change in his starting point on the mound this spring. Last year, he worked from the far first-base edge of the rubber. That was designed to maximize the deceptiveness of his funky delivery, especially by making his splitter as it first began to diverge from his four-seam heater. However, that didn't always work, and it came with some negative side effects, anyway. Imanaga has great command, but for any pitcher with natural arm-side run on the fastball, the danger of starting on the arm side of the rubber is that the ball will too often run off the plate. Uk9HUjNfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdGUlV3Y0hCUW9BV1ZJSEFnQUhWUTVTQUZnRVVsVUFBQWRVQWdFRFVBQmRBUXNG.mp4 The solution to that issue is as simple as you'd guess it is. This spring, Imanaga has moved to the middle of the rubber, as you can see clearly in this (otherwise grainy) screenshot from Tuesday's appearance. A good pitcher like Imanaga can manipulate their arm to get the ball where it needs to go from almost anywhere on the rubber, but there's a limit on how much of that manipulation one generally wants to do. The more you alter your delivery or force the ball to a given spot, the less widely you can vary your shapes and locations without giving yourself away. Instead of trying to stay where he was and change how he pitches, therefore, Imanaga moved to the center of the mound, where his stuff can play more naturally to all the places where he needs it to go. This is also going to benefit him in generating deception against right-handed batters. Compare these two 3-D animations of the trajectories of Imanaga's pitches, from the approximate vantage point of identical right-handed batters. The top image is from his appearance against Milwaukee last October; the bottom one is from Tuesday. Moving over makes it look less like the fastball in is coming right at the righty batter, but that's not a pitch Imanaga leans on, anyway. For the heater away, up or down, being closer to the center line of the lane from the plate to the mound creates more deception. The splitter plays off his fastball better, and his curveball can play to righties a bit, which it has rarely done during his time in the States. Imanaga still might run into homer trouble once the regular season begins. This adjustment isn't guaranteed to fix that issue, and in fact, the increased velocity is more important to that project, in terms of pitch shape and forcing less aggressive swings. However, another important goal is to minimize walks and avoid getting into unduly hitter-friendly counts. This move on the mound should help with that, and with getting some of the chases that Imanaga struggled to induce late in 2025. View the full article

This is a look at what to expect from the Minnesota Twins this season. The Twins finished in fourth in the AL Central with a 70-92 record, after a trade deadline where they traded 10 major leaguers as part of a reset/rebuild/reboot (depends on who you ask). This marked a step back from 2024, when they went 82-80, and a hefty step back from 2023, when they won the division and their first playoff series in over 20 years. Here is a look at some notable additions and subtractions for the Twins this offseason. Twins Subtractions 2B Edouard Julien (trade with Rockies) C Christian Vazquez RP Pierson Ohl (trade with Rockies) Twins Additions C/1B Victor Caratini, 2 years, $14 million 1B/DH Josh Bell 1 year, $7 million RP Taylor Rogers - 1 year, $2 million RP Liam Hendriks (minor league deal) RP Anthony Banda (trade with Dodgers) SS Orlando Arcia (minor league deal) 3B Gio Urshela (minor league deal) RP Andrew Chafin (minor league deal) These additions and subtractions don’t tell the whole story, as the Twins traded 10 major leaguers at the 2025 deadline. Josh Bell and Victor Caratini add needed experience to a young lineup. After the trade deadline sell-off, the bullpen is wide open for opportunities from veteran and young arms alike. Taylor Rogers signed a one-year deal to reunite with Minnesota and will likely pitch high-leverage innings. Other high-leverage innings will go to Liam Hendriks, if healthy, along with Anthony Banda, and possibly Andrew Chafin as well. Internal options for high-leverage innings include Cole Sands and Justin Topa. The additions may seem to outweigh the subtractions, but they do not account for the ten players traded at the deadline, and the Twins are very much a team in transition as they look to retool to become competitive in the near future. Every team deals with injuries, and the Twins are no different. Here is a look at a few key injuries that will affect the Twins in 2026. Twins Injuries RHP Pablo Lopez, Tommy John Surgery RHP David Festa, right shoulder impingement (expected return in April) RHP Travis Adams, elbow inflammation (should return late Spring training, early in the season) OF Walker Jenkins, grade 1 left hamstring strain (expected return late March) The loss of Pablo Lopez was quite a blow for a Twins rotation that was looking for him to be his all-star caliber self and lead the staff, along with Joe Ryan. Lopez is under contract through 2027 and is expected back for the final year. David Festa, Travis Adams, and Walker Jenkins are all players who have dealt with injuries this Spring and will look to be ready for the beginning of the season or early in the season. Festa’s injury, in particular, was tough, which will test the pitching depth early in the year. The Twins hope these three players do not have long-term availability issues stemming from injuries sustained during Spring Training. As a team in transition, here is a look at some of the key players for the Twins in 2026. Key Twins Players CF Byron Buxton - 4.9 bWAR SP Joe Ryan - 4.5 bWAR SP Simeon Woods Richardson - 2.2 bWAR 2B/OF Luke Keaschall - 2.0 bWAR C Ryan Jeffers - 1.2 bWAR Byron Buxton, who recently played for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, will look to be the key piece of the lineup. Luke Keaschall was the only rookie who had a significant impact in 2025, but hopefully is the first of many young players who will make an impact for the Twins in the near future. Woods Richardson, whom the Twins acquired along with Austin Martin for Jose Berrios from the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline, will look to continue growing into a solid starter for the rotation. Ryan will be the ace of the staff and will look to build off of his first All-Star appearance in 2025. The rotation has become a bit of a conundrum with a few injuries, but it could still provide upside, and Ryan will be a big part of any success they have this coming season. Speaking of top prospects, here is a look at the Twins' top prospects, which includes four players in MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects going into the 2026 season. Twins Top Prospects Walker Jenkins - OF Kaelen Culpepper - SS Eduardo Tait - C Emmanuel Rodriguez - OF Connor Prielipp - LHP This list includes four prospects who could be seen in the majors as early as this year. All but Tait have a good shot at the opportunity to make an impact at the major league level in 2026. Jenkins was the fifth overall prospect in 2023, in a class where the Twins jumped in the inaugural draft lottery. Culpepper has a shot at sticking at shortstop long-term, but has shown positional flexibility and could be an option at second base or third base as well. Tait came over to the Twins, along with Mick Abel, in the trade that sent Jhoan Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies at last season’s trade deadline. He is 19 years old and has shown high upside, but is still a few years away from the majors. Rodriguez and Prielipp have both dealt with various injuries, with Rodriguez never having played 100 games in a season and Prielipp throwing just 112.2 innings since being drafted in 2022. Both have shown high ceilings, but the key will be staying healthy so they can have as big an impact as they can going forward. Twins Spring Storylines (and beyond) The Pitching Staff The rotation looked relatively deep prior to the Lopez and Festa injuries, but lots of the success out of the rotation will hinge on Bailey Ober getting back to form, along with younger pitchers Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, and Taj Bradley taking a step forward. The bullpen is another questionable area, as the Twins traded all their high-leverage relievers at the deadline. The front office seems to think they can rebuild the bullpen on the fly, and time will tell whether they succeed. A few young players, such as Marco Raya, will transition into being a full-time reliever this year, but a lot will hinge on how some of the off-season moves perform. Young Twins Players And Their Impact Luke Keaschall was the only Twins rookie in 2025 who had a major impact, but that could be different this coming season. Lots of young players are expected to get a good amount of time in the majors, including top prospects Jenkins, Culpepper, and Prielipp. Along with those two, other prospects who have a shot at making their major league debuts include OF Gabriel Gonzalez, LHP Kendry Rojas, OF/1B Hendry Mendez, along with pitchers Andrew Morris and Marco Raya as well. The youth movement appears to have started in Minnesota, and time will tell what impact those players will have on 2026 and beyond. Here’s a look at the projected lineup, rotation, and projected record for the Twins this year: Projected Twins Lineup Byron Buxton - CF Josh Bell - 1B Luke Keaschall - 2B Matt Wallner - RF Victor Caratini - DH Trevor Larnach/Alan Roden - LF Royce Lewis - 3B Ryan Jeffers - C Brooks Lee - SS Projected Twins Rotation Joe Ryan - RHP Bailey Ober - RHP Taj Bradley - RHP Simeon Woods Richardson - RHP Zebby Matthews/Mick Abel - RHP Projected Twins Record PECOTA: 3rd place, 79-83 FanGraphs: 4th place, 79-83 You may be surprised to see the Twins are projected to improve on their 70-92 record from 2025 at first glance. This appears to be, in part, due to the belief that certain aspects of the roster will improve, and that other teams in the division may regress as well. The Twins have operated on a limited budget all off-season, and with a new person in charge of the front office, they will look to build up to relevance in the AL Central. It could be a very fun and exciting year in Minnesota, but it could also not go well, and the Twins could be trading pieces at the deadline again if things don’t go as they hope. American League Central Previews Detroit Tigers Cleveland Guardians View the full article

The Brewers front office and coaching staff knew this would happen, even if you didn't. Over and over, when asked questions about an apparent surfeit of starting pitching options in the wake of multiple trades that brought in more young arms in the late stages of the offseason, Matt Arnold, Pat Murphy and others in the organization sounded the same note: there will be injuries. The team needs to be ready when they come, and they need everyone they acquired in order to do that. It's clear, by now, that they were right. Already this spring, Brandon Woodruff has been brought along exceptionally slowly, with the goal being to have him ready to pitch in October, even if that comes at the expense of March. Quinn Priester, as it turns out, is dealing with a form of thoracic outlet syndrome, and while his prognosis is better than it often is for pitchers dealing with that issue, he's unlikely to be back on a big-league mound before Memorial Day. Logan Henderson has dealt with elbow discomfort this spring. Now, Kyle Harrison's short-term availability is up in the air, as he left his latest Cactus League start with a blister. One week from Opening Day, the Brewers' projected starting rotation suddenly looks stretched. It goes: Jacob Misiorowski Chad Patrick Brandon Sproat Woodruff Firstly, that's only four names. Second, the hope had been to hold Woodruff back until the second series of the season, which now looks tougher to do. Third, Sproat came to camp without a guarantee of any place in the rotation. He's already become indispensable. Let's tackle that first note more completely, though. The Brewers need a fifth starter. Even with days off aplenty early in the year, shortening to a four-man rotation is not an option they'll consider. The true routine of the modern starter is to work every sixth day, with the flexibility to go every fifth when required. They won't begin the season by asking their starters to go on four days' rest with any regularity. So, who will stand the gap? The good news is that, thanks to all those moves and their stubborn retention of all the pitching depth they can get, there remain several viable options. The most obvious is Robert Gasser, but fellow lefties DL Hall and Shane Drohan are right there in the mix, too. It's less likely that the team will turn to either Carlos Rodríguez or Coleman Crow, but both are on the 40-man roster. It's a luxury to have so many theoretically usable starters, even after a few of them are sidelined. Rather than Gasser, Hall or Drohan, though, another lefty could end up back in the mix for the rotation, on an interim basis. Maybe this year, the way for Pat Murphy and Aaron Ashby to get Ashby into the game as often as he wants to be is to have him start some games in a traditional, rotational role. Despite stretching out with starting in mind in 2024 and 2025, Ashby hasn't actually been a regular starter in the majors since 2022. It would be a significant change to move him back into the role this year, but it's no longer a wild idea. He threw 50 pitches in one Cactus League appearance. He's worked into a third inning multiple times. He has, after all, a deep arsenal for a reliever, with a sinker, a curveball, a changeup, and a four-seamer he leaned into more late last season, plus the occasional slider. There's no pitcher Murphy trusts more than Ashby, and Ashby wants the ball more than any other pitcher in the clubhouse. He's not fussy about the role he fills, but always eager to help the team and alleviate the burden on teammates, and this spring, the best way to do that might be to shift back to the rotation for a while. It helps quite a bit that Ángel Zerpa has looked great this spring, both in camp and during his time with World Baseball Classic-winning Team Venezuela. Zerpa and Jared Koenig can fill the team's needs from the left side in high-leverage relief, while Hall is a good candidate to go multiple innings in relief. Hall, Gasser and even Drohan would be more conventional choices for the rotation, because they've each worked with that specific goal and role throughout the spring, but Ashby is clearly the best of those four pitchers. If the team needs a trustworthy fifth starter for the first month or so, he's the player Murphy is most likely to choose. Once he's in the rotation, moving him back to the pen might be tricky—unless his body responds to the added workload with another injury. That's a problem for later in the year, though, and it could be a "good problem": there's little real friction in simply keeping Ashby in the rotation and telling Hall to shift his focus toward a permanent relief role. If Harrison and/or Henderson come along exceptionally well in the coming days, this could be moot. But keep an eye on Ashby; he could be starting (not just opening) come next week. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs came into this offseason with questions. They'll enter the next one with different questions. None of those, however, surround the shortstop position. For the last three years, and at least for this next one, the position belongs to Dansby Swanson. Swanson had an interesting season. We'll talk about the enigmatic nature of his offense throughout his career, but the stat sheet looks fantastic in certain areas—and less great in others. He slashed just .244/.300/.417, with a 26.0% strikeout rate that was his highest since 2022 and a walk rate that declined for a third consecutive season (7.3%). He did hit 24 home runs and steal 20 bases, while showcasing some impressive power metrics. But when all was said and done, his wRC+ checked in as essentially average: 99, where 100 is exactly average and higher is better. Lucky for him, his status as the team's starting shortstop isn't in any kind of question. Nico Hoerner resumes duties as the backup, while Matt Shaw could fill in in a pinch. It's a position of certainty and of depth, but that doesn't mean it's an ideal one for the Cubs ahead of the new season. SHORTSTOPS AT A GLANCE Starter: Dansby Swanson Backup: Nico Hoerner Depth & Prospects: Matt Shaw, Scott Kingery, Ben Cowles, Jefferson Rojas fWAR Ranking Last Year: 15th (3.3) fWAR Projection This Year: 13th (3.9) THE GOOD Swanson had his best power season since he signed with the Cubs, by a pretty wide margin. That's not completely reflected in his ISO, as a .173 mark in 2025 just barely edges the .172 figure he posted in 2023, and 24 home runs is not that much more than 22 home runs. Under the hood, though, better things were happening. Each of Swanson's barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity were his highest in a Cub uniform. These are objectively good things, despite what the rest of the stat sheet might say. He was in heavily on the fastballs that are a prerequisite for his success (more on that later), with his pitch selection helping to drive regular contributions in the power game. He also produced the results he did in a year when the ball was a bit less lively than it's been at any time in the last decade. The drag coefficient on the ball was higher than at any point since the very earliest days of the Statcast Era. In this chart, the higher a daily datum is, the less well the ball carried that day, on average. Swanson also continued to be an above-average defender. The numbers were tamped a bit by some early struggles, but Outs Above Average still liked him for 4 OAA. The good is furthered by the fact that the team has a built-in backup to Swanson in the form of Nico Hoerner. Flipped over to the keystone upon Swanson's arrival, Hoerner is more than capable of providing stability at the position in the event of an injury or some extra rest, while Matt Shaw would then slide into Hoerner's vacated spot at second in either instance. There's a bit of unconventional depth here, but it all speaks to the idea that this is one of the more stable positions on the roster. THE BAD Swanson is an immensely difficult player to figure out. At the same time, he's also a very easy player to figure out. Let me explain. The best years of Dansby Swanson's career have come when he's hunting fastballs. In 2021, he was a 99 wRC+ player, but had a .201 ISO. It was the only time in his career his isolated power number eclipsed that .200 mark. In 2022, he went for a wRC+ of 117 while still maintaining much of that power; his ISO was .170 and he hit 25 home runs. He followed that with a 105 wRC+ campaign and a .172 ISO in his first year with the Cubs. Those seasons saw his three highest rates of swinging at fastballs (prior to 2025). The 2022 season is particularly notable, as he swung at fastballs more than any other pitch type (53.6%). He'd never done that over a full season—until 2025. Swanson swung at 55.6% of fastballs in 2025. He maintained a hard-hit rate of 56.1%, found the barrel 13.8% of the time, and carried a .483 slugging percentage against heaters. The issue with that, dear reader, lies here: Swanson became so obsessed with swinging at them that he lost his grip on the zone. There was a threshold somewhere, and Swanson crossed it with his aggression against that specific pitch type. The outcomes were positive when he made contact inside the zone, but swinging at the heater outside the zone (and missing more often when he did so) cut into the benefits of that adjustment quite a bit. Additionally, Swanson continued a trend that began when he arrived in Chicago. At 17.3%, his opposite-field percentage was the lowest of his career. In fact, each of his three seasons have seen a noticeable drop in how frequently he makes contact to the opposite field. That element has its own nuance within his mechanics, but speaks to another factor pinning down some of the production from Swanson, beyond the approach. The good news is that Swanson still found ways to produce. The better news is that he's worked with Dustin Kelly on some changes this offseason. Those details are somewhat vague, but could indicate some refinement to blend the uptick in power with a more robust ability to reach base in 2026. THE BOTTOM LINE This position is Swanson's to lose in the short and medium term. Hoerner could leave as a free agent next winter. Neither of Scott Kingery or Ben Cowles are going to push for playing time. Jefferson Rojas is still a ways away. Swanson could move to second as soon as next year, but for now, he's the shortstop. It's just a matter of which iteration we see. Is Swanson going to refine the approach in a way that allows him to maintain power but work counts more effectively in his favor? How much can going the other way with authority again augment his production, and can he accomplish that? Is the defensive decline actually the result of a poor start, or should we start to worry about aging at a premium position? These are all questions in need of answers in the new season, but Swanson will have plenty of runway to do just that. View the full article

There are precious few days left before the San Diego Padres depart sunny Arizona and return home to sunny SoCal to begin the 2026 season. But as the clock ticks down toward Opening Day on March 26 vs. Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers, there are still some key items to figure out regarding who will be on the Opening Day roster. Some are more simple, like which players start the season on the injured list, and others will come to choosing the right player for the right role. Let's take a look at the top three questions remaining: 1. Who fills out the Padres' starting rotation? We know that right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Randy Vasquez are in the rotation barring anything unforeseen in their final Cactus League outings. That leaves two spots. Or is it one? An interesting wrinkle in this decision is that the Padres have two days off in the first eight days of the regular season. That means the Friars don't need a fifth starter until the second Sunday of the season, April 5 on the road against the Boston Red Sox. There are different ways for the Friars to approach this; they could ho with a traditional five-man rotation and give the starters a little extra rest to begin the season, which is not a bad idea, or go with four starters and a nine-man bullpen. There are two primary candidates for this: right-handers Walker Buehler and German Marquez. Buehler is not currently on the 40-man roster after signing a minor-league deal with an opt-out before Opening Day if not on the MLB roster. Buehler does get a $1.5 million contract if added to the Padres' roster. Marquez signed a major-league deal for one year and $1.75 million. Buehler has been the better of the two thus far in spring, with a 3.09 ERA in three Cactus League games, walking four and striking out 13 in 11⅔ innings. Marquez hasn't been as sharp, with a 9.26 ERA in four appearances, with five walks and 15 strikeouts, nine coming in his five-inning start Tuesday. With Pivetta having dealt with some arm fatigue and skipping a spring start (he did return last weekend), this feels like a five-man rotation situation, with Buehler and Marquez taking those Nos. 4 and 5 slots. 2. What does the Friars' bullpen look like? First-year manager Craig Stammen, himself a former MLB reliever, has enjoyed using the term "bridge" when referring to some Friars bullpen candidates this spring. That could be key when trying to figure out who will be among the eight relievers selected for Opening Day. The Friars boasted one of the best bullpens in all of MLB last season and that doesn't figure to change much despite losing closer Robert Suarez to Atlanta via free agency. That, in large part, is due to having added arguably the top reliever in baseball at the trade deadline in right-hander Mason Miller. Adrian Morejon and Wandy Peralta are the locked-in left-handers, while right-handers Jeremiah Estrada, David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez are the top right-handers. The other two spots depend on the health of left-hander Yuki Matsui, who has been throwing after sustaining an oblique injury in camp. He probably needs two solid Cactus League appearances to make the Opening Day roster. Left-hander JP Sears, who had been a candidate for the rotation, could instead be a bullpen option or sent to Triple-A El Paso for rotation depth. The latter seems the better choice for the team. With left-hander Kyle Hart and right-hander Logan Gillaspie showing good signs in camp and fulfilling the bridge role they likely take the last two bullpen spots thanks to their ability to cover multiple innings. Left-hander Jackson Wolf is another bridge option, but was reassigned to minor-league camp earlier this week. 3. Where does Craig Stammen's bench stand? The Padres' starting lineup pretty much returned intact, with the only true subtraction being Luis Arraez. Catcher: Freddy Fermin. First base: Nick Castellanos. Second base: Jake Cronenworth. Third base: Manny Machado. Shortstop: Xander Bogaerts. Left field: Ramon Laureano. Center field: Jackson Merrill. Right field: Fernando Tatis Jr. Designated hitter: Gavin Sheets. With four bench spots, one goes to Luis Campusano as the backup catcher. Infielder Sung Mun Song's second oblique injury likely means he will begin the season on the injured list, although he has been swinging in recent days. Outfielder-infielder Miguel Andujar has a spot secured. Needing a backup outfielder who can play center gives Bryce Johnson a spot, at least to begin the season. That leaves just one remaining. Ty France, in camp on a minor-league contract, has been good this spring, with the 2025 AL Gold Glove first baseman also playing second, third and left field. He is back after beginning his MLB career in 2019 with the Friars and could be the ultimate beneficiary of Song's lingering oblique troubles. Bonus: Who will enter MLB Opening Day on the injured list? It is never fun to be on the injured list, especially for Opening Day. Right-handed reliever Bryan Hoeing is already on the 15-day IL and is scheduled to have season-ending surgery on his right flexor tendon. He will eventually be transferred to the 60-day IL, opening up a 40-man roster spot (possibly for France or Buehler). Right-hander Joe Musgrove will also begin the season on the 15-day IL, as he still is on the comeback path from Tommy John surgery. Another starter, right-hander Griffin Canning, is still working his way back from a ruptured left Achilles. Both could return in mid- to late April if things go well. Right-handed starter Matt Waldron is in more of a sticky situation; he had hemorrhoid surgery in camp and has been working his way back on the mound and made his Cactus League debut with two innings Tuesday. With no minor-league options remaining, going on the 15-day IL with a possible rehab assignment will give the Padres an outlet to keep him around until they need him. Right-hander Jason Adam, a key member of the bullpen, has been on track to be ready for Opening Day following a ruptured left quad on Sept. 1 that required surgery. The Padres might take a cautious rout with his return with an IL placement. Matsui's oblique injury could be an excuse to put him on the 15-day IL and give the injury more time to heal. Right-handed reliever Ty Adcock made his Cactus League debut Monday following an oblique injury and was optioned to Triple-A on Tuesday. The same story applies to Song. The former Korea Baseball Organization star is likely to go on the 10-day IL considering he has had the same injury twice since the start of the calendar year. Infielder Will Wagner is yet another player with an oblique injury and he is likely to begin the season on the 10-day IL before heading to Triple-A. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have had plenty of highly-regarded prospects pass through their system in the last two decades. Few have carried the kind of expectations currently surrounding Walker Jenkins. Across the industry, Jenkins is viewed as the top prospect in the Twins organization. In fact, many evaluators believe he may be the most talented prospect the team has developed since Byron Buxton was climbing the minor-league ladder as baseball’s next five-tool superstar. That's lofty company, and it speaks to how impressive Jenkins has looked early in his professional career. While most scouts agree on Jenkins’ overall offensive upside, one question continues to follow him as he develops: How much power will he actually hit for at the highest level? The answer depends on which evaluators you ask, and is the chief variable left in their assessments. Understanding the Scouting Scale Before digging into the debate, it helps to understand the grading system most prospect outlets use. Scouts typically evaluate tools using the 20-80 scouting scale. A grade of 50 represents major-league average. A 60 grade is considered plus, while a 70 or 80 grade reflects elite tools. On the other end of the spectrum, a 40 grade is below-average, and a 30 or lower suggests a major weakness. In theory, each 10-point increment represents a standard deviation of movement. If 50 is average, 60 is one standard deviation better, so only about 17% of players should be better at a skill than a player with a 60 grade on a given tool. Fewer than 3% of players should be better than someone who scores a 70, and most scouts will only give one 80 grade in any tool over a given period of several years. By contrast, a 40 means that over 80% of regular big-league players are better than the player at that skill. Not every scout or organization interprets the scale quite that way, but that's the gist. (This is also why you'll often see players receive 45 or 55 grades, but rarely see them slapped with 25, 35, 65, or 75. The number of players who fall along the curve between 60 and 70 is small enough that, since these are highly uncertain, future-focused assessments, scouts are usually urged to choose one of the round numbers.) These grades attempt to project how a player’s tools will look at their peak in the major leagues. With Jenkins, his hit tool receives virtually unanimous praise. The disagreement arises over how much power the bat will produce. MLB Pipeline Sees Plus Power MLB Pipeline recently updated its prospect rankings and gave Jenkins a 60 grade for power. That mark signals confidence that he could develop into a legitimate home run threat, even though Pipeline uses the scale a bit more generously than the description above, anyway. The outlet even went as far as naming Jenkins the top power prospect in the Twins system. They wrote that Jenkins uses a smooth, repeatable left-handed swing that allows him to consistently find the barrel. His approach produces hard contact while also generating walks and limiting strikeouts. According to their evaluation, his power began to show more frequently during the 2025 season. Much of that power currently shows up to the pull side, though the report notes he can also drive the ball the other way for extra bases. In that view, Jenkins profiles as the type of hitter who could combine a strong batting average with above-average home run production. If that projection holds true, it would give the Twins a middle-of-the-order cornerstone. FanGraphs Takes a More Cautious View The evaluators at FanGraphs are more conservative in their projections. Their scouting report assigns Jenkins a current raw power grade of 45, with a future projection of 55. When projecting how that power will translate into games, they are even more cautious. Jenkins receives a current game power grade of 40, with a future grade of 50. In other words, FanGraphs sees Jenkins eventually reaching roughly average game power at the major-league level, rather than the clear plus power projected elsewhere. Their report notes that Jenkins is physically strong and well built, but lacks the overwhelming physical tools often associated with superstar-level power hitters. His bat speed is described as slightly above average, and the underlying power metrics from 2025 were more modest. The report points to a maximum exit velocity of 110 mph, which is roughly the major-league average. More importantly, many of his balls in play fell far below that mark. His hard-hit rate, around 35%, suggests a solid but not overwhelming impact. From this perspective, Jenkins might be more of a high-contact hitter who occasionally runs into home runs, rather than a consistent 30-homer threat. Based on last year's league-wide home run rate and isolated power, a version of Jenkins that hits .270 in the majors (a strong projection in a league that bats around .245) would slug about .430 and hit 19 home runs in a full season of playing time. Why the Evaluations Differ The disagreement between these outlets highlights the challenge of projecting power for young hitters. Jenkins’s swing naturally invites comparisons to another former Twins star, Joe Mauer. Like Mauer, Jenkins owns a smooth left-handed stroke built around barrel control and the use of the entire field. That style often produces plenty of doubles and strong on-base numbers. Mauer occasionally flashed home run power during his career, but his game was built more around line drives and gap-to-gap contact, rather than towering pull-side home runs. Some scouts believe Jenkins could follow a similar offensive path. However, there are also reasons to believe more power could develop. Jenkins is still physically maturing and has already shown an ability to drive the ball harder as he gains experience. Many young hitters also learn to selectively hunt pitches they can pull in the air as they climb the ladder. That developmental adjustment can significantly increase home run totals. Furthermore, the league is forcing players to hunt power that way. A rising baseline for athleticism (especially in the corner outfield spots) and better outfield positioning have made it impossible to even rack up doubles the way Mauer did for so much of his career. Had Mauer come along when Jenkins did, he would have developed differently. If Jenkins turns out to be a comparably talented and intelligent hitter (admittedly, a big 'if'), he's likely to focus more on power and less on batting average. Both the power and the hit tool are also difficult to evaluate, because hitting is such a reactive craft. Famously, former top Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters was hailed as a switch-hitting "Mauer with Power," but he never got near that level. He didn't have Mauer's preternatural combination of feel for contact and plate discipline, and while he did flash considerably more raw power, he was never a Mauer-caliber overall offensive force—let alone something more. Teams can much better evaluate players at similar stages now, using neuroscouting tools and bat-tracking data, but there's still an alchemy involved that can only be experienced, rather than explained. Some hitters are more than the sum of their parts; some are less. The Next Test at Triple-A Ultimately, the debate about Jenkins’s power will be settled on the field. The next stage of his development could provide an important clue. Jenkins is scheduled to begin the season at Triple-A, in the hitter-friendly environments of the International League. That level often boosts offensive numbers and allows evaluators to see how a prospect’s raw tools translate against advanced pitching. If Jenkins begins consistently lifting balls to his pull side and clearing the fence more often, the more optimistic power projections could start to look accurate. If his production leans more toward doubles and line drives, the comparison to Mauer’s offensive style might prove closer to the truth. Regardless of which projection proves correct, Jenkins’s advanced hit tool already provides a strong foundation for his future. The lingering question is whether his power will settle at solid, average production or evolve into an asset anchoring the middle of the Twins lineup for years to come. Whose evaluation do you agree with the most? Can Jenkins be an above-average power hitter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays were busy this offseason, working to retool their team in hopes of returning to the World Series (with a different outcome, of course). They improved their pitching staff by adding Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers in free agency. Not as much was added to the offense, but the team did sign Kazuma Okamoto. After the news that Anthony Santander needed surgery on his left labrum and would miss five to six months, the Blue Jays acquired Jesús Sánchez in a trade with the Houston Astros. A few key players, including Santander, will miss Opening Day. Shane Bieber and Yimi García aren't projected to be out long. José Berríos was recently diagnosed with a stress fracture in his elbow, and his timetable is uncertain. He's taking a few days off before testing his elbow out again. These injuries help narrow down who will make the Opening Day roster, as some of the few remaining question marks that loomed around the team have been cleared up. There could still be a surprise addition, but here is who will likely be on the roster to start the season: Blue Jays Projected Batting Order George Springer, DH Addison Barger, RF Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B Daulton Varsho, CF Alejandro Kirk, C Jesús Sánchez, LF Kazuma Okamoto, 3B Ernie Clement, 2B Andrés Giménez, SS Bench: Tyler Heineman, C; Davis Schneider, UTL; Nathan Lukes, OF; Myles Straw, OF This lineup configuration gives manager John Schneider a nice righty-lefty rotation through the top seven spots. Okamoto and Ernie Clement will be back-to-back right-handed bats, but the rotation continues with Giménez, a lefty, batting ninth. There's a ton of power in the starting lineup as well, with each of the top seven capable of hitting 17 to 20 home runs at a minimum. I really wanted to see Eloy Jiménez on the bench, given his hot spring training (128 wRC+), but the only person he could replace is Nathan Lukes, which leaves you with three right-handed hitters and a switch-hitter on the bench. That lineup construction would limit the Blue Jays late in games if an opposing team were to bring in a right-handed pitcher. The only other question to consider is whether Leo Jiménez can beat Davis Schneider for a place on the bench. Right now, however, that seems unlikely. An injury would be required to find room for either Jiménez on the roster. Now let's take a look at the pitching staff. Blue Jays Projected Pitching Staff Starting Rotation Kevin Gausman, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Cody Ponce, RHP Trey Yesavage, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Bullpen: Jeff Hoffman, RHP; Tyler Rogers, RHP; Louis Varland, RHP; Tommy Nance, RHP; Eric Lauer, LHP; Brendon Little, LHP; Braydon Fisher, RHP; Mason Fluharty, LHP Max Scherzer steps in to take what would have likely been Berríos's spot, though Scherzer has been electric this spring. He's pitched 8 2/3 innings, allowed only two hits, and has yet to give up a run. The lone concerns are that he's struck out only six batters and walked three. However, what do you expect out of a pitcher who turns 42 in July? The Blue Jays just need to get semi-quality innings from him to help ease the workload on their younger pitchers. The days of posting a mid-2.00s ERA and striking out 200 batters are long behind the pitcher known as Mad Max for his fiery demeanor on the field. If I were the manager, I'd prefer to have a left-handed starter or two, but the Blue Jays are limited in this aspect. Lauer is the only option currently on the projected 26-man roster, though promising left-handed prospects Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko are waiting in the wings. Both starting pitching prospects are on the 40-man roster. Tiedemann missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2024 campaign. However, his spring has been delayed due to soreness in his left elbow. The lefty has resumed throwing, but the Blue Jays will ease him back into a normal routine. The last bullpen spot that would have been García's is open to Fluharty or Chase Lee, who the Blue Jays acquired this offseason in a trade with the Detroit Tigers. With so many righties in the bullpen, I chose to leave Lee off the 26-man roster, but he will make his return to MLB at some point this season. The Blue Jays have a well-configured roster that has a legitimate shot to defend their AL East and American League titles. There's far more optimism revolving around the team than they had at the start of last season after finishing 2024 with a 74-88 record and coming in last in the AL East. Gear up, Blue Jays fans, it's going to be an exciting season. View the full article

It's not Friday, but we're rolling out this week's Forum Friday a day early just because. Brewer Fanatic is a community with thousands of passionate Brewers fans throughout Wisconsin and the world. Our forums are filled with informed perspectives on everything worth knowing about the big leagues, minor leagues, and more. We are excited to begin a weekly spotlight on some of the best discussions happening on the site. Brewers: Opening Day Roster Predictions Opening Day is less than a week away. The Brewers will return many familiar names when they face the Chicago White Sox on March 26, but a few roster spots remain uncertain. Should Milwaukee keep Brandon Lockridge as a fifth outfielder? Can the bullpen support five left-handed relievers? You will find a range of opinions and learn a thing or two about how Milwaukee pitching fares against right-handed batters. Minors: 2026 Prospect Reports / Lists / Rankings / Interviews / Etc. The best thing about being a Brewers fan, for better and worse, is dreaming about the future. The future is even brighter when the Milwaukee farm system is decidedly good. We are blessed to enjoy world-class coverage in our minor league forum. This specific thread topic offers rankings, reactions, and interviews throughout the offseason. Come bask in the reflected glory of the best prospects in all of baseball! Other Sports: March Madness 2026 Brewer Fanatic is a five-tool forum. Sure, we discuss launch angles, weighted on-base average, and pitch spin rates. We also have robust Other Sports and Off-Topic forums, too. If there's one thing all Brewers fans can agree on, it is cheering for Cinderella teams to upset more prominent opponents. Come to think of it, the NCAA should consider a salary cap to level the playing field. In the meantime, why not join the rest of America in celebrating March Madness? We invite you to join us in our forums this coming season! The in-game threads are a lively experience, and you won't find a better place to be a Brewers fan than at Brewer Fanatic. View the full article

When Joey Ortiz was acquired from the Orioles in the Corbin Burnes trade, it was more or less assumed that he would inherit shortstop from Willy Adames. He was the No. 63 overall prospect in baseball in 2024, according to MLB Pipeline, and even though he was playing a new position (third base), his rookie year was quite encouraging. His first year after moving back to shortstop was less than ideal. A year-long offensive slump limited him to a 67 wRC+. His defensive contributions (depending on which figure you look at) were just good enough to keep him above replacement-level, but the future of the position isn’t as clear as it once seemed. There’s still time to turn things around. Ortiz is 27 years old, and there’s reason to believe that his performance at the plate last year was the exception, not the rule. Much of his offensive struggles came from a steep decline in plate discipline rather than a holistic degradation of talent. A side-by-side comparison demonstrates that other than his chase rate increasing and walk rate decreasing, most of his numbers remained in line with 2024. 2024 2025 Barrel % 4.6 3.0 LA Sweet Spot % 26.6 27.4 Squared Up % 23.0 23.3 Whiff % 17.1 16.0 K % 20.2 14.6 Chase % 24.7 33.3 BB % 11.0 5.3 Surface-level spring training statistics only matter so much, given their limited sample and the variance of opposing competition, but his 10.9% walk rate thus far is at least trending in the right direction. His power also seems to have returned, with his average exit velocity jumping to 91.9 mph and his 90th-percentile EV making a similar leap to 107.2 mph, both marked improvements on where those metrics were last season. In other words, there’s still hope for Joey Ortiz, but it’s far from a sure thing. The uncertainty of it all is exactly what led a savvy team like the Milwaukee Brewers—who take no unnecessary risks—to go about getting a backup with a chance to become the starter. Although they sent much of their 2025 infield depth to the Red Sox in the Caleb Durbin trade, the front office replenished it by acquiring David Hamilton in that very deal. They'd also scooped up Jett Williams from the Mets in the Freddy Peralta deal. Williams is currently MLB Pipeline's 51st-ranked prospect and carries all the usual characteristics of a player who has made it this far in a 5-foot-7 frame. He’s fast, pulls the ball in the air frequently, and is athletic enough to play in the outfield, or at multiple spots around the infield. Hamilton is the far superior defender—perhaps over Ortiz, as well as Williams. The dynamic Williams spent most of his minor-league season in Double-A last year but also played 34 games in Triple-A, posting a cumulative 136 wRC+ with 17 home runs and 34 stolen bases. His well-rounded offensive profile already seems sufficient for a step up in competition, as he's been excellent in spring training, slashing .375/.500/.625 over his 20 plate appearances. Of course, he’ll also have to maintain his success in Triple-A. His time in spring training was somewhat truncated by a quad injury he sustained at the end of February, and given a larger sample, any current issues (can he make enough contact? Is his plate discipline good enough to handle the best pitching in the world?) would have been clearer. Milwaukee is in no rush to call up Williams, and have already assigned him to minor-league camp. Hamilton is the more significant short-term threat to Ortiz's playing time. He's batting a less impressive .231/.294/.371 this spring, but he brings elite speed (and aggressiveness on the bases) and that excellent glove, so there's a chance he'll force the issue at either short or third base. Williams, meanwhile, will prepare for his time in the big leagues by playing multiple positions, as his long-term home is probably either second base or center field, anyway. In the medium term, Cooper Pratt is the one who might take over shortstop from Ortiz, unless the incumbent shortstop reasserts himself sharp-like. Pratt only had a 107 wRC+ in Double-A last year, but the potential is obvious, and his glove is ahead of his bat. Behind him (and gaining fast) are Jesús Made and Luis Peña. There's a swamp-like fluidity to this group, but from it, the team is almost certain to get something great—but that's not guaranteed to happen this year. It can be tempting to look at this year as a holdover year before the organization’s most promising prospects blossom into full-fledged big leaguers. However, what the team has on the table is far from a group of replacement-level journeymen. While it may not be clear who will receive the most playing time at the role, Milwaukee has no shortage of promising options. View the full article

Padres Mission's ranking of the club's top prospects for 2026 has reached the final stage, and just the top two prospects are left to highlight. Be sure to check out our previous rankings here: No. 3: Kruz Schoolcraft No. 4: Bradgley Rodriguez No. 5: Miguel Mendez No. 6: Jagger Haynes No. 7: Humberto Cruz No. 8: Ty Harvey No. 9: Ryan Wideman No. 10: Kale Fountain Nos. 11-15 Nos. 16-20 No. 2 Kash Mayfield (Lake Elsinore Storm) The San Diego Padres organization has been extra cautious with Kash Mayfield ever since taking the left-hander 25th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft. They delayed his pro debut until last April, and then the team capped his workload for Low-A Lake Elsinore tightly. Mayfield never worked more than five innings or threw more than 80 pitches in a game. His innings limit shrunk further in midseason after he missed three weeks in May and June with inflammation in his pitching shoulder. When he did take the mound, he showed a lot of promise. Over 19 games (all starts) and 60 2/3 innings, Mayfield produced a 2.97 ERA/3.06 FIP, a 34.1 percent strikeout rate, a 3.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 43.6 percent ground-ball rate. He was excellent at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs in a hitter-friendly environment. His 10.9 percent walk rate was a blemish, if only slightly given his youth and lack of consistent reps. He succeeded despite working with a diminished arsenal. The San Diego Union-Tribune (subscription required) reported last September that Mayfield's fastball velocity was down about 3 mph from his days at Elk City (Okla.) High School; he topped out at 94 mph in the Cal League, compared to 97 mph in the prep ranks. The 21-year-old's offseason plans included adding weight and strength. That could bump the velocity back up. Other aspects of pitching helped him compensate. The heater had lively arm-side run, and Mayfield created deception with both the extension from his 6-4 frame and a relatively low release point. A mid-80s changeup and upper-70s slider gave him excellent separation. In fact, the changeup is thought to be Mayfield's best pitch. It has big-time sink and fade, making it a weapon against right-handed batters, and his arm speed creates great deception. His mechanics are considered advanced; his motion looks smooth and repeatable. Mayfield was one of 21 pitchers in the preliminary player pool for the Padres' Spring Breakout game on March 21 against the Chicago Cubs' top prospects. A strong outing against high-level competition would give him a nice boost ahead of his second minor-league season, which should begin at High-A Fort Wayne. View the full article

Left-hander Cole Ragans will get the ball as the Kansas City Royals' Opening Day starter. In this video, we discuss Ragans' ridiculous strikeout rate in '25, the ride on his fastball, the rest of his pitch arsenal, and how he can elevate his play even more for the 2026 season. Enjoy! View the full article

Bailey Ober looked like a prime bounce-back candidate just a couple of weeks ago; now there are real questions about whether he’s even fully healthy. If things don’t turn around soon, the Twins could be dealing with a much bigger issue than expected. View the full article

Team USA fell short for a second-straight World Baseball Classic. In 2023, they lost to Shohei Ohtani and Team Japan. This time, on March 17th, they lost 3-2 to Team Venezuela, a team led by Royals players Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, the latter of whom was named MVP of the WBC. For Team USA and fans, it was a frustrating end to a promising World Baseball Classic. However, Royals fans were able to see star Bobby Witt Jr. show glimpses of his potential on the big stage. In 24 WBC at-bats, Witt slashed .250/.400/.333 with a .733 OPS. He had two doubles, three stolen bases, and scored three runs. Furthermore, he made some incredible defensive plays at shortstop, showing the world why he won a Platinum Glove last season. That said, the biggest development for Witt in the WBC was not only him hitting leadoff, but succeeding in the spot, especially when it came to plate discipline. Witt's Performance at Leadoff in the WBC In his six-game sample in the World Baseball Classic as the USA leadoff hitter, Witt had six walks to only five strikeouts. That is good for a BB/K ratio of 1.20, which is 0.84 points higher than his career BB/K ratio. While he didn't get as many hits as he would've liked (six), he also had a .400 OBP, which was tied for third-best on the USA roster with Gunnar Henderson and Roman Anthony. Furthermore, as the USA leadoff hitter, his Statcast percentiles were similar to those Royals fans saw from Witt in 2024 and 2025, as seen below via TJ Stats. Witt posted only a .309 wOBA, ranking in the 36th percentile. However, he had a .434 xwOBA, ranking in the 89th percentile. In terms of exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rates, Witt did with Team USA what he has done with the Royals. His average EV ranked in the 95th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 91st percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 88th percentile. The 25-year-old shortstop has always shown an ability to hit the ball hard at the Major League level. That said, he has historically had an over-eager approach. Last year, not only was his BB/K ratio 0.39, but he also ranked in the 32nd percentile in O-Swing% (30.6%) and 25th percentile in BB% (6.0%). Below is his complete Statcast profile from 2025 via TJ Stats. His 2025 Statcast profile and WBC-specific one don't look all that different at the top of each summary. However, here are some key categorical differences. 40% Swing% in WBC to 51.1% Swing% in 2025. 18.2% BB% in WBC to 6.0% BB% in 2025. 27.2% O-Swing% in WBC to 30.6% O-Swing% in 2025. 17.9% Whiff% in WBC to 23.8% Whiff% in 2025. Of course, this is a 33-plate-appearance sample to a 687-plate-appearance one. Thus, a grain of salt should be taken here, given Witt's major improvement in those four categories. Nonetheless, if Witt can carry over this approach somewhat to the regular season, he would be the Royals' best leadoff candidate in 2026 and beyond. Witt's Previous Leadoff Struggles and Other Options The only issue with Witt being the Royals' leadoff hitter on Opening Day is that he doesn't have a great track record at the top of the order. According to Fangraphs splits, in 201 plate appearances at leadoff, he has a .204 batting average, a 0.20 BB/K ratio, a .620 OPS, and 62 wRC+. Leadoff has been his worst spot in the batting order by a significant margin. Except for fifth, which he has only 8 plate appearances, the next-lowest batting-order wRC+ is third at 119. For context, he has accumulated 2,154 plate appearances in the second spot in the batting order, which is the most of any spot for Witt. He has a 0.40 BB/K ratio, .301 average, .870 OPS, and 136 wRC+ in that second spot in the order. Thus, manager Matt Quatraro has no reason to move Witt, especially since he has been so good at the No. 2 spot. However, the leadoff spot has been a thorn in the Royals' side, especially in Quatraro's tenure as manager. Since 2023, Royals leadoff hitters have posted an 82 wRC+, ranking 28th in baseball, according to Fangraphs. Thus, Kansas City doesn't have a great history in this spot, despite GM JJ Picollo's best efforts. The Royals acquired Jonathan India from Cincinnati to handle leadoff duties last year, but he had a down season in his first year in Kansas City. He posted an 89 wRC+ and .669 OPS in 567 plate appearances last season. That isn't exactly the profile of a player getting everyday at-bats at the top of the lineup. He has had a better spring and continues to be solid in the chase and walk categories, but his lack of exit velocity and barrel ability make him a one-dimensional option. Isaac Collins was acquired by the Royals this offseason, and he fits the disciplined approach that Kansas City wants at the top of the lineup. As a rookie in Milwaukee last year, he posted a .368 OBP and 122 wRC+ in 441 plate appearances with the Brewers. However, he hasn't been the most healthy this spring, and his Cactus League Statcast percentiles have been meager beyond exit velocity and O-Swing%, as illustrated below. The last option could be Garcia, who may be one of the hottest players in baseball right now, especially after his WBC MVP run with Team Venezuela. However, much like Witt, Garcia doesn't have a great history at leadoff. In 885 career plate appearances at leadoff, Garcia has slashed .257/.308/.357 with a .665 OPS and 83 wRC+. He has a 0.40 BB/K ratio at leadoff, but his power has been paltry, as evidenced by his .100 ISO. For comparison, let's see how Garcia has performed in the No. 2, No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 spots in the batting order in his career with the Royals. No. 2 (31 PA): 1.25 BB/K ratio, .320 average, .160 ISO, and 157 wRC+ No. 3 (99 PA): 0.89 BB/K ratio, .286 average, .198 ISO, and 127 wRC+ No. 4 (285 PA): 0.71 BB/K ratio, .260 average, .143 ISO, and 100 wRC+ No. 5 (184 PA): 0.52 BB/K ratio, .293 average, .138 ISO, and 119 wRC+ Thus, Garcia may be better served in run-driving situations in the batting order (No. 2-5) than run-scoring ones (leadoff). Additionally, the 26-year-old Venezuelan has incredible plate discipline, but he has strong, hard-hit contact ability that could be more valuable in the 2nd through 5th spots in the batting order, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary this spring. Thus, the Royals certainly have a dilemma at the leadoff spot, which is important to address to improve their offense in 2026 (they ranked 26th in runs scored last year). There are certainly options available, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Quatraro mix up the leadoff hitter from time to time, depending on the pitching matchups. That said, Witt is the Royals' best hitter, and a big year from him will be key to the Royals' postseason chances. It would make sense to ensure he gets as many plate appearances as possible in a given season. The main way to do that? Put him at leadoff on Opening Day in 2026 and keep him there for the remainder of the season. View the full article

According to FanGraphs, the Rays are projected to have the third-best bullpen in baseball, with Griffin Jax as their best reliever. The Phillies are projected to have the fourth-best bullpen, with Jhoan Durán as their best reliever. The Blue Jays are projected to have the 12th-best bullpen, with Louie Varland as their second-best reliever. The Twins, meanwhile, will be looking to replace all that lost impact with a bullpen that's generously projected to finish 20th in fWAR, a 19-spot drop from last year. Holdover Cole Sands will be surrounded by a group of aging, over-the-hill vets and fringe or young arms looking to turn a corner. In all likelihood, it won't be pretty, especially in the early going. TWINS RELIEF PITCHERS AT A GLANCE Projected Bullpen: Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Liam Hendriks, Andrew Chafin, Eric Orze, Anthony Banda, Zak Kent Depth: Kody Funderburk, David Festa, John Klein, Travis Adams, Dan Altavilla, Grant Hartwig, Matt Bowman Prospects: Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, Kendry Rojas, Ryan Gallagher, James Ellwanger Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 7th out of 30 Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 20th out of 30 THE GOOD There are some real track records of success here. Twins fans know how good Taylor Rogers was during his glory days in Minnesota, and how good Liam Hendriks was after he left. Andrew Chafin has a 3.35 ERA over a 12-year MLB career. Anthony Banda, Justin Topa and Eric Orze have all posted sub-four ERAs in the majors over the past couple seasons. A casual follower of baseball might look at this list of names and conclude that it's actually a pretty good bullpen — certainly a very accomplished one. The Twins are hoping the depth of experience and "been there, done that" factor will pay dividends, especially under the leadership of a new bullpen coach who embodies those qualities in LaTroy Hawkins. Much of this unit's outlook hinges on Hendriks. He's a complete wild-card, with fewer than 20 innings pitched over the past three seasons while dealing with myriad health issues. From 2019 through 2022 he was one of the very best and most dominant relief pitchers in baseball. It seems unlikely he'll recapture that form now at age 37, but the Twins would take anything in the realm. It would be a stretch to say Hendriks has been blowing people away or generating massive enthusiasm in spring training, but with his fastball reaching the mid-90s, he's shown enough to instill belief that he's not cooked. Sands, when at his best in 2024, looked a little bit like Hendriks of yore, pairing an overpowering arsenal with excellent control to log a 3.28 ERA and 2.63 FIP in 71 ⅓ innings. If both of those two can stay healthy and perform at a reasonably high level, it will make a huge difference for a bullpen whose most apparent shortcoming is a lack of impact righties in the late innings following the departures of Durán, Jax and Varland. One area where the Twins do seem relatively well equipped is the left-handed side. Minnesota's Opening Day bullpen is likely to feature three southpaws and maybe even four. Rogers, Chafin and Banda check a lot of boxes in terms of results and experience, including in high-leverage situations. Banda ranked second on the Dodgers in Win Probability Added last year, with a 96 MPH fastball and wipeout slider that held opponents to a .223 wOBA. Rogers and Chafin have seen their velocity and stuff degrade over time, but you wouldn't really know it from their numbers. These are crafty vets who can get people out, especially left-handed hitters. THE BAD There's a reason Rogers, Hendriks and Chafin were available late in the offseason on minor-league contracts or very cheap MLB deals. There's also a reason Orze was acquired in a low-wattage trade, and Banda and Zak Kent were essentially waiver claims. These are not in-demand pitchers. They are not viewed around the league as likely to make substantial positive impacts. Those are just the undeniable facts. Everyone's aware of what these guys have done in the past. When you look beyond ERAs, you start to see why, because the outlook gets a lot less favorable. Rogers had a 3.38 ERA last year but a less impressive 4.38 FIP, thanks to issuing 23 walks in 50 innings and posting the highest HR rate of his career at 34. Chafin, Banda and Orze also have had their own share of control issues that threaten to derail solid top-line performance. This year's Twins bullpen mix features only one reliever projected by FanGraphs to post a WAR above 0.4 (Sands). Last year saw seven relievers post a WAR higher than 0.4 for the Twins bullpen, including five who spent only two-thirds of the season as part of it. You might look at this and think, "Wow, despite all that, the Twins bullpen is projected to be only the 11th-worst in baseball?!" And yeah, it does say a lot about how many teams are struggling to find confident stability on the relief pitching front. Which underscores what a risk that Minnesota's front office took last year in trading away three who've proven themselves to the degree of Durán, Jax and Varland. The Twins are hoping that they can eventually develop similar bullpen stalwarts out of an emerging slate of arms that includes Kody Funderburk, David Festa, Connor Prieilipp, Marco Raya, John Klein, Kendry Rojas, Ryan Gallagher and James Ellwanger. It's definitely not hard to envision some legit late-inning arms coming out of that group, in time. But figuring it all out is a nonlinear, trial-and-error process that requires exercising patience and enduring pain. The odds of this bullpen being even average in the first half of the 2026 are extremely slim, which will have major implications on the team's ability to remain competitive and avoid another deadline sell-off. THE BOTTOM LINE This is clearly not a good bullpen. From my view, it's likely to be quite terrible, whereas sources like FanGraphs project it merely as below average. Either way, a clear strength was flipped into a clear weakness through Minnesota's actions at the deadline last year. These actions were designed to benefit the long-term outlook, and evaluating them through that lens will take time. But there's little doubt that the short-term outlook for the bullpen is severely worsened. The Twins felt the effect in August and September of last year, and they'll continue to feel them this year unless several overlooked vets can score rare victories against Father Time. Catch up on the rest of our roster preview series: Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Catcher Twins 2026 Position Analysis: First Base Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Second Base Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Third Base Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Left Field Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Center Field Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Right Field Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher View the full article

Daniel Palencia just did what many thought would be impossible; he slammed the door on a loaded Team USA lineup to take them out in the WBC title game. Palencia logged five shutout innings and struck out nine on a run that Venezuela fans will not soon forget. What did his showcase on the worldwide stage mean for the upcoming MLB season? We dive into it all right here. View the full article

Looking at the next tier of Milwaukee Brewers prospects as voted on by Brewer Fanatic contributors, we look at players ranked 11-15. How much does pigeonholing Blake Burke into a first baseman limit his upside and impact his ranking? Discussed in this video are Brock Wilken, Blake Burke, Luke Adams, Josh Adamczewski, and Luis Lara. View the full article

In the sun-drenched annals of the Brooklyn Dodgers’ "Golden Era," the spotlight usually finds the heroes of the "Boys of Summer"—Jackie Robinson breaking barriers, Duke Snider patrolling center field, and Pee Wee Reese anchoring the infield. Yet, nestled within that legendary rotation was a lanky, soft-spoken left-hander from the Ozarks who was perhaps the most cerebral and subversive player of his generation. Elwin "Preacher" Roe was a man of contradictions: a high school math teacher who played the role of a country bumpkin, and a pillar of the community who built a Hall of Fame-caliber career on a pitch that had been illegal since 1920. To understand Preacher Roe is to understand the art of the "long con" in professional sports. His story isn't just one of athletic prowess, but of a calculated reinvention necessitated by a near-fatal injury and sustained by a brilliant, mathematical mind that saw the rulebook as a set of suggestions rather than laws. [Note: While not about the New York Mets, we will frequently touch upon New York baseball history as long as it's not from you-know-where.] The Persona of the "Hillbilly" Professor Born in Ash Flat, Arkansas, Roe entered the major leagues with a natural Ozark twang that he quickly realized was a valuable asset in the media capital of the world. To the cynical New York sportswriters, Roe leaned heavily into the identity of the "good-ol'-boy" from the sticks. He spun yarns with a thick accent, feigned a simple curiosity about the "big city," and allowed the press to paint him as a homespun rube. The truth was far more sophisticated. Roe was an educated man who attended Harding College (now University) on a baseball scholarship. He wasn't just a student-athlete; he was a man of high character who used a significant portion of his $5,000 signing bonus from the St. Louis Cardinals to buy new uniforms for his college teammates—a gesture of loyalty that preceded his professional fame. In the off-seasons, while the newspapers imagined him hunting squirrels in the Arkansas brush, Roe was actually standing at a chalkboard in a suit and tie, teaching high school mathematics and coaching basketball. This background in math wasn't just a fun fact; it was the engine behind his pitching. Roe understood the geometry of the strike zone and the physics of air resistance. He viewed a baseball game not as a feat of strength, but as a series of variables to be manipulated. The Fracture That Changed Everything Every legend has a turning point, and for Roe, it occurred in the winter of 1946. While coaching a high school basketball game back in Arkansas, a heated dispute erupted with a referee. In a shocking turn of events, the official allegedly slugged Roe. The pitcher fell backward, his head striking a steel railing with enough force to fracture his skull. The injury was nearly fatal and fundamentally changed his physical capabilities. Before the accident, Roe was a "power pitcher" who relied on a blazing fastball to blow past hitters. After the fracture, the "smoke" was gone. His arm simply couldn't generate the same velocity. Most pitchers would have retired, their careers ended by a freak altercation. Instead, Roe used his mathematical brain to engineer a second act. He transformed himself into a "crafty" southpaw, focusing on pinpoint control, off-speed deliveries, and a secret weapon that would eventually make him a Dodgers legend. The "Beech-Nut Curve": An Anatomy of Deception By the time Roe joined the Dodgers in 1948, he had perfected his "money pitch": the spitball. Though it had been outlawed for nearly thirty years, Roe realized that an umpire couldn't call what he couldn't prove. He approached the illegal pitch with the same precision he used to grade math exams. His process was a masterpiece of misdirection. He was a master of "loading" the ball in plain sight. He would spit on his hand while reaching for the bill of his cap, then discreetly transfer the moisture to his fingers by tugging his belt or smoothing his jersey. He even had a preferred "lubricant"—Beech-Nut chewing gum—which gave the ball a specific tackiness that hitters eventually nicknamed the "Beech-Nut curve." The deception extended to his communication with his teammates. While legendary catcher Roy Campanella was always in on the secret, the rest of the Dodgers had to be tipped off so they knew how the ball would react if it were hit. Right fielder Carl Furillo later revealed the code: If Roe touched the bill of his cap with two fingers, the "wet one" was coming. If he used only one finger, he was faking it. The fake was often as effective as the pitch itself; hitters were so terrified of the unpredictable movement of the spitter that they would overcompensate, leaving them vulnerable to his legitimate breaking balls. Whenever an umpire grew suspicious and asked to see the ball, Roe had a final trick: he would "accidentally" drop the ball into the dirt or step on it while walking toward the umpire. By the time the ball reached the official's hands, the moisture was scuffed away, replaced by the innocent dust of the mound. The 22-3 Masterclass This combination of psychological warfare and illegal physics reached its zenith in 1951. Roe posted a 22-3 record, an .880 winning percentage that remains one of the greatest single-season marks for a 20-game winner in the history of the National League. He wasn't overpowering hitters; he was outsmarting them, using their own momentum and suspicion against them. When asked by reporters how a man in his mid-30s with a diminished fastball could dominate the league, Roe offered a classic, audacious quip: "Clean livin' and the spitball." Most took it as a joke. They shouldn't have. In 1955, a year after his retirement, Roe came clean in a Sports Illustrated exposé titled, "The Outlawed Spitball Was My Money Pitch." He offered no apologies; he had simply done what was necessary to win. The Grocer of West Plains Roe’s retirement was as unconventional as his pitching. In 1954, after declining a trade to the Baltimore Orioles, he walked away from the game at the height of his fame to return to the Ozarks. He didn't seek the bright lights of Hollywood or a coaching job in the big leagues. Instead, he and his wife, Mozee, moved to West Plains, Missouri, and opened a grocery store. For decades, the "Preacher" was a fixture at the corner of Broadway and Porter Wagoner Boulevard. He was the local grocer who just happened to have been one of the greatest pitchers in Brooklyn history. He used his fame not for ego, but for community, raising funds for local baseball fields and pitching in benefit games into his twilight years. He was a man who had mastered the most deceptive art in sports, yet lived a life of transparent, humble service to his neighbors. Today, the site of his grocery store houses The Truck Patch, a natural foods market. While the store’s modern website focuses on organic integrity and "clean" ingredients, the ghosts of Roe’s "dirty" pitches still linger in the soil of West Plains. A Lasting Ozark Icon Preacher Roe passed away in 2008 at the age of 92, but his presence in southern Missouri is permanent. Travelers driving through West Plains navigate Preacher Roe Boulevard, a major thoroughfare named in his honor. In Salem, Arkansas, children play at Preacher Roe Park, and his likeness is immortalized in a mural at the Ozark Heritage Welcome Center. Roe’s life remains a fascinating study in contrast. He was the "Hillbilly" who taught high school calculus. He was the "clean-living" family man who threw a "dirty" pitch. He was a man who survived a fractured skull to become the most efficient winner of his era. Ultimately, Preacher Roe proved that in baseball, unlike in math, the shortest distance between two points isn't always a straight line—sometimes, it’s a ball that drops three inches at the last second because of a little bit of spit, and a whole lot of genius. View the full article

As baseball settled in for the winter following the 2021 season, the Kansas City Royals appeared close to a long-term solution to the first base uncertainty created by Eric Hosmer’s departure to San Diego after the 2017 campaign. Nick Pratto, swooped up by the Royals with their first pick of the ’17 draft, had just stunned everyone with a sizzling 36-homer, 98-RBI, 153 wRC+, .268/.385/.602 minor league performance, and Carlos Santana, preparing to play out his short-term contract, was a sure bet to be dealt no later than the 2022 trade deadline. It seemed Pratto was KC’s first baseman of the future, and 2022 would be the year the Royals could finally rest easier at first base. The former notion disproved itself; the latter turned out to be true. Pratto began the 2022 campaign at Triple-A Omaha, immediately fell into an ugly slump, and his Storm Chasers teammate Vinnie Pasquantino jumped onto Kansas City’s roster ahead of him when the club traded Santana to Seattle in June. And Pasquantino hasn’t taken a single step back. His hold on first base is so strong that the Royals recently rewarded him with a new two-year contract that will pay him at least $11 million. And on the strength of the 70 homers he’s hit, the 262 runs he’s driven in, and the serviceable (but not spectacular) defense he’s displayed since KC entrusted him with the first base bag, the position is his for the 2026 season… and probably well beyond that. Royals Catchers At A Glance Starter: Vinnie Pasquantino Backup: Salvador Perez Depth: Nick Loftin, Jac Caglianone Prospects: Brett Squires The Good The Royals are loaded at first. Pasquantino’s bat is big and getting bigger — despite missing the last month of the 2024 regular season with a fractured thumb, he finished with 19 homers and 97 RBI, then hammered 32 homers and drove in 113 runs last season. And the thought of him playing all 162 of his club’s games this year isn’t far-fetched. After injuries so disrupted each of his first three big league seasons, he appeared in all but two games last year and avoided the Injured List altogether. More likely, however, is that manager Matt Quatraro will afford his star first baseman some rest in the form of a handful of days off supplemented by a healthy dose of turns at designated hitter (he DH’d 34 times in 2025). Who, though, plays first when his skipper gives Pasquantino time off? Expect Perez, coming off a productive season of his own (30 homers, 100 RBI), to be Quatraro’s prime choice and spend even more time at first than he did in 2025, when he appeared there 30 times. That will also give Perez valuable respite from the demanding rigors of catching. Nick Loftin, who may or may not make the club’s Opening Day roster, also has major and minor-league experience at first, and Jac Caglianone played 10 games there last season and has a dozen Cactus League games at first this spring. A first base prospect to keep an eye on is Brett Squires, who, through Tuesday’s Cactus League action, was hitting .267 with an .800 SLG, 1.094 OPS, and two homers, two doubles, and seven RBI in 12 games. He’s moved up a level in each of his first three seasons in the minors and should begin this year at Triple-A Omaha. The Bad All things considered, not much about their first base situation should give the Royals pause. Only if Pasquantino and Perez suffer major injuries at the same time will the club be in any trouble at first … and if in such a disastrous situation Loftin and Caglianone aren’t hitting, KC might have to make a trade they'd prefer not to make. The Bottom Line After trying and failing to replace Hosmer with such candidates as Lucas Duda (twice), Ryan O'Hearn (before he flourished after leaving Kansas City), Hunter Dozier, and Santana, who was a temporary fix only, the Royals have found their solution in Vinnie Pasquantino. First base is his, and that’s a good thing. View the full article

Over the course of the last several years, the Boston Red Sox have gone through their fair share of catchers, as the position has not been the primary focus of the front office. The most consistent the position has been was from 2016-2022, when the duo of Christian Vasquez and Sandy Leon split the majority of the playing time behind the plate. But, over the last four years since they traded away Vasquez to the Houston Astros, the Red Sox has gone through five different catchers, including Connor Wong, Danny Jansen, and most recently in 2025, Carlos Narvaez. Boston Red Sox Catchers At A Glance Starter: Carlos Narvaez Backup: Connor Wong Depth: Nate Baez, Jason Delay, Nathan Hickey, Ronald Rosario, Matt Thaiss Prospects: Johanfran Garcia Red Sox fWAR Ranking Last Year: 25th out of 30 Red Sox fWAR projection this year: 24th out of 30 The Good Wong has been with the Red Sox since 2020, but his inconsistency at the plate has limited him to just a handful of major league starts. Last season, after the team lost Jansen to free agency, they picked up rookie Carlos Narvaez. Wong opened the season as the starter, but after suffering a left fifth finger fracture in April, he lost that starting role to Narvaez. Narvaez turned that newfound role into a true breakout; in 2025, he hit .241/.306/.419, with a .726 OPS. He also hit 27 doubles last season, clubbed 15 home runs, drove in 50 RBIs and 51 runs scored. On the defensive side, the rookie had a .991 fielding percentage, with 932 putouts on 999 chances. He threw out 32 runners on the year and after a strong season finished sixth in the rookie of the year voting. He's well-rounded both behind and at the plate, and another leap forward as a batter would put him among the league's better catchers. The Bad Wong, on the other hand, couldn’t continue his momentum from 2024 into 2025. The veteran catcher appeared in just 63 games for the Red Sox compared to Narvaez’s 118, and even that split doesn't do his poor outlook justice. Coming off his fractured finger, Wong struggled to find his stride. After batting .280 in 2024, he hit just .190/.262/.238, barely touching a .500 OPS. He hit just eight doubles, no home runs (compared to 13 in 2024), drove in just seven RBIs and had 16 runs scored. While Wong and Narvaez are listed as the primary catchers coming into the 2026 season, Narvaez did suffer with some minor injuries that were caused by fatigue from the season last year. With Wong struggling at the plate (the best part of his game), it was evident that the Red Sox needed to put emphasis on catching depth during the offseason. And for Wong, unless he begins hitting, his job could be at risk, as he has a -36 wRC+ this spring. That's 136% worse than league average, which doesn't even seem possible. The Bottom Line It is a near-guarantee that Narvaez will be the Red Sox’s Opening Day starter in a couple weeks and will serve as the primary catcher in 2026. While Wong is listed as his backup, the Red Sox acquired prospect Nate Baez from the Minnesota Twins, Jason Delay from the Atlanta Braves, and veteran Matt Thaiss after he elected free agency in 2025 following one season with the Tampa Bay Rays. Thaiss has already been reassigned to Triple-A Worcester after receiving an invite to major-league camp, along with Delay. Among those battling it out in major-league camp for a spot on the 26-man roster, Nathan Hickey, who appeared in 19 games for the Red Sox in 2025, is the last man standing. Hickey is making a name for himself compared to Wong this offseason. The 2021 fifth-round draft pick is batting .160/.276/.400, good for a meager 67 wRC+ that blows Wong's contributions out of the water. He has hit two home runs, driven in five RBIs, walked three times, and scored four runs. Though that might not seem like much, it may actually be enough given what's going on with the current projected backup. Thanks to the presence of Narvaez, the Red Sox appeared set at backstop heading into the season. Should an injury befall him, though, there's no telling what the team will do in response. View the full article

Jays Centre is counting down the top 50 Blue Jays in franchise history. Check out prior entries in the series here: Introduction 50 to 46 45 to 41 This next installment of our top 50 countdown includes a couple of All-Star second basemen and a pair of mustachioed, high-volume hurlers. But before we get to those guys, let’s kick things off with the most recent Blue Jay to win the Edgar Martínez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award. No. 40: Adam Lind 2006-2014 DH/1B/LF Blue Jays stats: 953 games, 146 home runs, 519 RBI, 111 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR Accolades: Silver Slugger, Edgar Martínez Award Designated hitters were a huge part of the Blue Jays’ success in 1992 and ‘93, when future Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor won back-to-back Outstanding DH Awards for their work in the heart of Toronto’s lineup. In the 30-plus years since, only one other Blue Jay has taken home that prize: Adam Lind. Lind was phenomenal in his first full campaign, hitting 35 home runs and driving in 114 for the 2009 Jays. He finished the year with a 140 wRC+, earning the Edgar Martínez Award, a Silver Slugger, and some down-ballot votes for AL MVP. The highlights of his season were an 18-10 Blue Jays victory over the Rangers, in which Lind hit two homers (including a grand slam) and drove in eight, and a three-homer performance in an 8-7 win over the Red Sox in his final game of the year. Lind never quite rediscovered that 2009 magic, but he finished his Blue Jays career on another high note, batting .301 with 29 homers, 107 RBI, and a 136 wRC+ in 239 games from 2013-14. After the 2014 season, the Jays traded Lind to the Brewers for Marco Estrada (who came in at No. 47 on our list). All in all, Lind spent nine years with Toronto. He ranks 15th in plate appearances as a Blue Jay (3,726) and 10th in home runs (146). According to wRC+, his 2009 season was one of the top 30 offensive campaigns in team history. No. 39: David Wells 1987-92, 1999-2000 LHP Blue Jays stats: 306 games, 138 starts, 18 complete games, 13 saves, 784 strikeouts, 19.1 fWAR Accolades: All-Star, AL wins leader, World Series champion David “Boomer” Wells spent eight of his 21 big league seasons in Toronto, pitching for the Blue Jays from 1987-92 and again from 1999-2000. While he would eventually gain a reputation as a workhorse starting pitcher, he could never quite secure a starting role in his first go-round with the Jays. Following a phenomenal breakout season in relief in 1989 (86.1 IP, 2.40 ERA), Wells would get his first real chance as a starter in 1990. Over the next three years, he bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, pitching 507.1 innings and starting in just over half of his appearances. He pitched quite well from 1990-91, but a high BABIP and low strand rate caused him trouble in 1992. Despite the 4.1 scoreless innings he threw in October, the Jays released him the subsequent spring. Fresh off an excellent 1998 – in which he threw a perfect game and won a World Series with the Yankees – Wells came back to Toronto, as part of the package that sent Roger Clemens to the Yankees. Firmly a starter now, Wells made 69 starts for the Jays from 1999-2000, the exact same number he made over six years in his first stint with Toronto. His 2000 season was arguably the best of his career. He earned an All-Star nod, led the AL in wins, and finished third in Cy Young voting. According to FanGraphs WAR, it stands as the best season by a Blue Jays pitcher not named Clemens or Halladay. Only eight pitchers have started more career games for Toronto than Wells, and only six have thrown more innings. His 784 strikeouts rank eighth, his 19.1 fWAR ranks seventh, and his 84 wins rank sixth. No. 38: Aaron Hill 2005-11 2B Blue Jays stats: 875 games, 881 hits, 436 runs, 92 wRC+, 44 DRS, 12.4 fWAR Accolades: All-Star, Silver Slugger, Comeback Player of the Year Aaron Hill first made a name for himself as a defense-first second baseman. Then, established himself as a core player for the Blue Jays when he proved he could make an impact at the plate in 2007. While a nasty concussion ruined his 2008 campaign, Hill was better than ever in 2009. He made the All-Star team that summer and won a Silver Slugger in the fall. His 36 home runs and 108 RBI led all second basemen. It was a remarkable performance following such a scary season-ending injury the year before. Hill became the first Blue Jays player to win the AL Comeback Player of the Year, and he remains the only Blue Jay to ever take home the prize. Ultimately, much of what Hill accomplished in his Blue Jays career was in those two seasons. Still, he ranks among the team’s top 20 in plate appearances, hits, and runs scored. According to DRS, he is also one of Toronto’s best defensive players of the 21st century. No. 37: Damaso Garcia 1980-86 2B Blue Jays stats: 902 games, 1,028 hits, 453 runs, 194 stolen bases, 85 wRC+, 8.7 fWAR Accolades: Two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger From a modern-day perspective, the numbers don’t paint a particularly rosy picture of Damaso Garcia's tenure with the Blue Jays. While he made two All-Star teams, won a Silver Slugger, and even earned a couple of down-ballot MVP votes, he never had a season with an OPS or wRC+ above league-average. What is undeniable, however, is that Garcia was a threat on the bases. His 194 steals rank third in Blue Jays history (just don’t think much about the fact that his 86 caught stealings are tied for first). It is also undeniable that Garcia was essential to the Blue Jays forming their identity in the 1980s. By the time he was traded in 1987, he ranked third in team history in games played and runs scored; he was first in hits and stolen bases. Even now, only nine players have more hits in a Blue Jays uniform, and Garcia remains one of only five to have stolen 50-plus bases in a season. No. 36: Doyle Alexander 1983-1986 RHP Blue Jays stats: 106 games, 750 innings, 25 complete games, 392 strikeouts, 3.56 ERA, 11.2 fWAR The definition of a journeyman, Doyle Alexander had already switched teams seven times before he landed with Toronto in his 13th big league season. He was coming off an especially poor performance with the Yankees, but the Blue Jays believed he could bounce back – and they were right. The Jays won their first division title in 1985, and you’ll find all five members of their 1985 starting rotation on our top 50 list. Alexander didn’t stick around as long as Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, or even Luis Leal, but he certainly made his mark in the years he spent with the club. Through parts of four seasons, Alexander pitched 750 innings (17th in team history), won 46 games (18th), and racked up 11.2 fWAR (15th). His two full seasons with the Blue Jays (1984 and ‘85) were arguably the best of his career. He earned down-ballot MVP support both years and finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 1985. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays’ starting rotation depth is going to be tested right away. On Wednesday morning, the team announced that right-hander José Berríos will not be ready to open the 2025-26 season after being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right elbow. Prior to joining Team Puerto Rico for the quarterfinals at the World Baseball Classic, Berríos underwent a precautionary MRI for insurance purposes, which revealed elbow inflammation. That resulted in the 31-year-old going for a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister, who diagnosed the stress fracture. Per MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson, Blue Jays manager John Schneider states that Berríos remains pain-free, and the team hopes that he will return to throwing soon and pitch through the injury. In 2025, Berríos made 31 appearances, with 30 of them coming as a starter. Across those 31 outings, he went 9-5 with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.30, striking out 138 batters in 166 innings. Berríos, nicknamed “La Makina” (“The Machine”), had been a model of consistency in his career, routinely making 32 starts and delivering quality innings for both the Minnesota Twins and Blue Jays. Last season, Berríos made his first career trip to the injured list, dealing with right elbow inflammation in September, which ultimately ended his season. His latest elbow issue is supposedly unrelated. The questions surrounding the Jays’ rotation only grow now. With Berríos sidelined, Shane Bieber still ramping up after dealing with forearm fatigue (he's yet to throw a pitch in a game), and the Blue Jays slowly building up Trey Yesavage in what will be his first full season at the MLB level, Toronto's depth is slowly being depleted. Kevin Gausman has the Opening Day assignment, and Dylan Cease appears likely to follow. After that, the questions are plentiful. Cody Ponce, making his MLB return, will have a role, and 41-year-old Max Scherzer should be guaranteed a role in the rotation, as long as he's ready come Opening Day. The fifth and final spot will likely be split between Yesavage on a pitch limit and left-hander Eric Lauer. Having to use Lauer as a piggyback partner for Yesavage could prompt the Blue Jays to keep Lázaro Estrada on the roster for Opening Day. Estrada has shown the ability to throw multiple innings in an outing, something the Blue Jays could be getting desperate for as injuries continue to pop up. The Blue Jays open their regular season at home on Friday, March 27, against the Athletics. View the full article

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals announced that they had optioned right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence to Triple-A Omaha to begin the season. This latest move now brings their Major League Spring Training roster to 49. Spence was acquired by the Royals from the Athletics this offseason in exchange for right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence was the top overall pick in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, and he pitched two seasons with the Athletics before arriving in Kansas City. In 2024, the former Yankee pitching prospect was a hybrid arm for the Athletics, making 35 appearances (24 starts) and pitching 151.1 innings. In that sample, he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, a 4.14 FIP, and 12.6% K-BB%. He took a step back in his second year with the Athletics, pitching only 84.2 innings and making only eight starts (32 total appearances). In that more abbreviated campaign, Spence posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, a 5.06 FIP, and 10.7% K-BB%. His Statcast percentiles were also a bit mixed last year, as seen below via his TJ Stats Statcast summary. The 27-year-old did a good job of generating whiffs, limiting walks, and generating chase and groundballs last year with Sacramento. However, he also gave up a lot of hard contact, and that hurt him in Sacramento's hitter-friendly confines. He posted a 6.93 ERA at home compared to a 3.64 ERA on the road. Thus, the move to Kauffman Stadium should help Spence in 2026. This spring was a rough one for Spence, albeit a limited sample. In three appearances (two starts) and 7.0 IP, he posted a 10.29 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 7.53 FIP, and 3.0% K-BB%. Spence has been hurt by the long ball, as evidenced by his 28.6% HR/FB rate. However, his TJ Stuff+ metrics have been encouraging, as shown in his TJ Stats summary below. Spence had a 106 overall TJ Stuff+ this spring with his cutter (108), slider (111), and curveball (101) all rating as above-average pitches. He generated a 31.6% chase rate, which was above average, but his zone rate and whiff rate were slightly below average, and his xwOBACON of .424 was well below average. Thus, it was more of a command issue for Spence in Cactus League play, and hopefully, he can work that out in Omaha. With the Spence move, Bailey Falter, Alex Lange, Hector Neris, and Eli Morgan are the main relievers remaining in camp. They are battling for two spots in the Opening Day bullpen. Lange and Falter are likely the favorites for those remaining spots, especially since they are out of Minor League options. Morgan has had a strong spring for the Royals, however. The former Cleveland reliever is posting a 1.17 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.80 FIP, and 18.8% K-BB%. He has also shown solid Statcast percentiles this spring in his Cactus League sample. Morgan does have a Minor League option remaining, but if he doesn't make the Major League squad out of Spring Training, he could opt to find a spot in the bullpen on another MLB team. Thus, it will be interesting to see what the Royals will do with Morgan, especially in the wake of the Spence move and Opening Day only nine days away. View the full article