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When thinking about who the most valuable players are, there is a lot to be considered. Obviously, talent and production are the biggest factors, but those are not the only things worth considering. Experience is a plus, but age can weigh down someone's value. A big contract makes a great player less valuable, while a cheap contract can make a mediocre player more valuable. Club control is extremely valuable, especially for younger players and top prospects. We've put together our list of who we believe the 25 most valuable Padres are this offseason, taking everything into account. Without further ado, here is the first segment of that list. 25. JP Sears, SP Sears came to San Diego as part of the Mason Miller trade, and at the time, many probably saw him as an afterthought. After all, he was not the centerpiece of the trade, and he only started five games for the Padres after being traded from the Athletics to San Diego. However, Sears is currently looking like he will factor into the team's rotation plans next April, and it makes sense. Between Opening Day of 2023 and August 4th, 2025 (his first start in San Diego), Sears never missed a start. He started 32 games for the Athletics in '23 and '24, and while his run-prevention numbers were not great (4.93 FIP, 4.46 ERA), he was worth 5.1 bWAR over those two seasons. Sears did show some regression in 2025, with just 0.8 bWAR and a 5.21 FIP, but unless San Diego makes more moves to add to their rotation, he will very likely get a chance to redeem himself as a starter in 2026. He is under club control for three more years, so if he does bounce back, he could become a more valuable asset to the Padres. 24. Yuki Matsui, RP Matsui was an underrated addition to the Padres' bullpen in 2024, and he's been a sneaky good player for San Diego the past two seasons. He's appeared in 125 games, throwing 126 innings and striking out 130 batters in the past two seasons. In that span, he has a 4.40 FIP, 1.262 WHIP, 109 ERA+, and 1.4 bWAR, with a 7-3 record. He has not done much in high-leverage situations, with just one save in 2025, but that's not necessarily an indictment of him. San Diego has had such a stacked bullpen, with guys like Robert Suarez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Miller, that they have not needed Matsui to do much high-leverage pitching. That doesn't mean Matsui can't be a leverage reliever if they need him to. Matsui also has four more years of club control, as he won't reach free agency until 2030. The Padres owe the 30-year-old a significant chunk of money over the next three years, which lowers his trade value. He's owed $5.7 million in 2026, $6.5 million in 2027, and $7 million in 2028, before reaching arbitration in 2029. If Matsui does emerge as a potential set-up man or closer, that contract starts to look really good, but at the moment, it's an overpay for a solid middle reliever, which is why Matsui falls at No. 24 on this list. 23. Kash Mayfield, SP Mayfield has not reached the major leagues yet, but as a former first-round draft pick, he will hopefully get there soon. Mayfield was drafted 25th overall by the Padres in 2024, but did not get started in the minor leagues until 2025. He spent last season in Single-A, starting 19 games and pitching to a 2.97 ERA in 60 2/3 innings. He struck out 88 batters while walking 28. Mayfield will be 21 next season and will likely begin the season in Double-A. He might not reach the big leagues in 2026, but hopefully, he'll be ready to pitch in the major leagues by 2027. The 6-foot-4 starter is currently San Diego's top prospect according to Padres Mission, making him a realistic trade chip if San Diego wants to make another deadline move. 22. Xander Bogaerts, SS Bogaerts is the hardest player to rank on this list because of his contract and his declining production. The 33-year-old is still owed $203.6 million over the next eight seasons by San Diego. There's probably no getting out of that contract, although crazier things have happened. If San Diego wants out of Bogaerts (and let's face it - paying $25.4 million per year to a player with a 96 OPS+ in the last two seasons is not ideal), they would need to eat a significant portion of his contract. Or, they'd need Bogaerts to have a massive bounce-back in 2026, a bounce-back strong enough for another team to be interested in trading for him. For whatever reason, the infielder has not been the same player since he signed a massive, 11-year deal with the Padres ahead of the 2023 season. He was solid in 2023, finishing with a 117 OPS+ and 4.2 bWAR, but it was still his worst full-season since 2017. Things took a turn for the worse in 2024, turning in what was arguably the worst year of his career, as his OPS+ fell to 92 and his bWAR fell to 1.2 in 111 games. In 2025, he was slightly better, with 2.0 bWAR and a 99 OPS+ that hovered around league average for most of the season. His power has mostly dissipated, as Bogaerts has hit just 11 home runs in each of the past two years. While he was never known for being a power hitter, Bogaerts did average 19.4 long balls per season between 2016 and 2023. It feels like going forward, the Padres can only expect around 10 bombs from Bogaerts. Bogaerts is still valuable as a defender, with a solid shortstop glove. However, as he ages, that will almost certainly decline as well, leaving the veteran with very little to offer. 21. Ron Marinaccio, RP Marinaccio is one of the most intriguing relievers in the Padres' system. He's barely pitched in the big leagues over the past two years, having appeared in just seven games for the Padres in 2025 and 16 games for the Yankees in 2024. However, he's been good in those 23 games, with a 144 ERA+ and a 4.01 FIP. Before that, he was one of the Yankees' top relievers in 2022 and 2023. As a rookie in 2022, he posted a 2.05 ERA, 3.20 FIP, and 1.2 bWAR in 40 appearances, striking out 56 batters in 44 innings pitched. He has never matched the production of that rookie season, but based on his small sample size in San Diego last year, it feels like the potential is still there. He won't become a free agent until 2030, so San Diego has four years to develop Marinaccio back into the solid reliever he was in New York. He's also extremely cheap, as he'll be on a league-minimum salary in 2026 before beginning arbitration in 2027. View the full article

With the addition of KBO star Sung Mun Song and the re-signing of Michael King, it appears Padres general manager AJ Preller has finally come out of hibernation. Granted, he never actually went quiet, but Padres fans have grown accustomed to high-activity offseasons, and this year’s break has been quieter than usual in San Diego. One of the lingering rumors surrounding the Padres’ activity is that Preller has been listening to offers on superstar closer Mason Miller. Recently acquired at the 2025 deadline, Miller was dominant in San Diego last season, and trading him would be a huge mistake. Here’s what the 27-year-old produced in 2025: 61 2/3 Innings Pitched 10 Holds 22 Saves 2.63 ERA 2.56 xERA 2.23 FIP 2.27 xFIP 44.4% K-rate 12% BB-rate 2.0 FanGraphs WAR Regardless of the approach the Padres take this offseason, there is no reason to trade Miller. Not only is he an incredible player, but his age, contract, and skill set also make him a cornerstone for any organizational direction. Let’s say Preller isn’t able to execute any big trades or free-agent signings and instead decides to rebuild or retool. Miller should still, absolutely, be part of the future vision. In July, they traded the No. 3 overall prospect, Leo De Vries, along with other talent to acquire him. It’s unlikely they will find another team willing to offer a similar package. Trading Miller for a lesser return would mean cutting “losses” on not winning the championship last season, which is an unnecessary measure. If they decide to retool, Miller can be the anchor of the bullpen. He will be cost-efficient until he enters free agency in 2030, and keeping him as closer would allow the Padres to focus on other areas of the team. I assume a retool would include a shift in what the Padres are built around. Over the last few seasons, San Diego’s strongest dimension has been its bullpen. They finished top-three in FIP in both 2024 and 2025, while leading MLB with a 3.06 ERA last season. If they retool, they should let Miller carry the back-end load and throw 70+ innings at a cheap price, then use their other assets to build a more reliable lineup and starting staff. I find it unlikely they take it a step further and begin a full-on rebuild, especially given their two recent signings. However, if they did choose that route, they would be better off taking a shot at Miller becoming a starter. As I detailed after they acquired him at the deadline, Miller can be an elite starting pitcher. If he takes on that role and performs well, teams would be even more attracted to him, potentially allowing the Padres to receive greater value in a later trade. Now, if San Diego still hopes to compete for the NL West - let alone a championship - Miller should be a key piece of that plan. The stats speak for themselves, and there’s no indication his talent is going anywhere. His fastball averaged a career-high 101.2 mph last season, and although its Statcast run value was a mediocre +1 (down from a +11 in 2024), batters hit it to just a .171 xBA. The lower run value of the heater was likely due to opponents’ unsustainable 49.1% hard-hit rate against it in 2025. No advanced metrics project that dips to hold, and opposing hitters ultimately stopped hammering it once he got to San Diego. The issue stemmed from a short-lived early-season slump in Oakland. In San Diego, he produced: 23.1 IP 0.77 ERA 1.12 FIP 1.09 xFIP Along with his famous fastball, Miller’s slider is becoming the most dangerous off-speed pitch in baseball. As described above, teams were clearly sitting on his fastball last season. Instead of forcing the issue, Miller leaned into his breaking stuff. He threw his slider a career-high 46% of the time in 2025 at 87.8 mph - a 12.5 mph difference from his fastball. Production-wise, he was rewarded with a +16 run value, which sits in the top first percentile among all pitches in baseball, along with a 54.6% whiff rate. In a year where batters effectively squared up his fastball, Miller proved that opposing lineups will have to keep picking their poison - and even if sitting on one pitch works, he will still find ways to get you out. The production and electricity are undeniable. Still, it could be argued that Miller should be traded to help bolster other parts of the roster. That’s where you have to look at rival teams and evaluate what Preller has to do to build a competitive club. There’s no need to look further than the Los Angeles Dodgers: The defending two-time champions and a division rival. San Diego is a juggernaut in spending, but, like all teams, it operates with just a fraction of the Dodgers’ billion-dollar payroll. If the Padres are going to hold their own against Los Angeles, they need to find ways to acquire equal talent at a more affordable price. Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn who can’t be matched, but superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can, both financially and production-wise, match the Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman duo. The pitching staff still needs some work, but if King and Joe Musgrove are healthy and Preller adds one more starter, they should have enough depth to throw a quality arm in every playoff game. As for the bullpen, the Dodgers just invested in All-Star closer Edwin Díaz for the next three seasons, paying him nearly $70 million. Keeping Miller as a closer is the only way San Diego can match the Dodgers’ newly acquired bullpen firepower - at a cost of at least $20 million less per season. With their former All-Star closer Robert Suarez gone to Atlanta this offseason, and other question marks surrounding the bullpen, the Padres should bank on Miller as the foundation of their pitching staff. He clearly has the production, talent, and potential to do so. Once that foundation is established, they can turn their focus toward improving an inconsistent lineup and starting rotation. View the full article

On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs agreed to a contract with right handed reliever Jacob Webb, formerly of the Texas Rangers. The contact, as reported by Patrick Mooney, is a one-year deal with an option for 2027. Jacob Webb had a successful 2025 season with the Texas Rangers, as the 32-year old posted a 3.00 ERA over 66 innings. Webb features a fastball that sits around 93-mph while featuring a changeup and a sweeper. The reliever saw his K% drop from around 24% to 21% last year but still gets a lot of weak contact and forces hitters to get under the ball. One thing the pitcher does well; he gets pop-outs, inducing 21 of them last season. Webb did a great job of limiting damage across all three of his offerings last season, with xwOBA's on his three major offerings all under the .300 level with a .291 on the fastball, a .265 on his changeup, and a .257 on his sweeper. Because of his changeup, Webb actually had reverse splits last year, limiting lefties to a .243 wOBA in total (and has a better wOBA against LHH over his career). While the team has not added a "major" reliever to their bullpen, the Cubs have added a handful of useful arms between Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar and now Jacob Webb to help stabilize their pen. Webb likely won't settle into a back-end role, but could help to stabilize the middle-innings and could give the Cubs more match-up-options with his reverse splits. As well, Webb represents another contract that should not break the bank at $1,500,000, allowing the Cubs the flexibility this offseason on who or what their "big additions" could be. Tatsuya Imai or Alex Bregman both remain more-than-in-play from a salary standpoint after this contract. What do you think of the addition of Jacob Webb? Do you think he will help bring stability into the middle-innings? Sound off in the comments below! View the full article

On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs agreed to a contract with right handed reliever Jacob Webb, formerly of the Texas Rangers. The contact, as reported by Patrick Mooney, is a one-year deal with an option for 2027. Jacob Webb had a successful 2025 season with the Texas Rangers, as the 32-year old posted a 3.00 ERA over 66 innings. Webb features a fastball that sits around 93-mph while featuring a changeup and a sweeper. The reliever saw his K% drop from around 24% to 21% last year but still gets a lot of weak contact and forces hitters to get under the ball. One thing the pitcher does well; he gets pop-outs, inducing 21 of them last season. Webb did a great job of limiting damage across all three of his offerings last season, with xwOBA's on his three major offerings all under the .300 level with a .291 on the fastball, a .265 on his changeup, and a .257 on his sweeper. Because of his changeup, Webb actually had reverse splits last year, limiting lefties to a .243 wOBA in total (and has a better wOBA against LHH over his career). While the team has not added a "major" reliever to their bullpen, the Cubs have added a handful of useful arms between Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar and now Jacob Webb to help stabilize their pen. Webb likely won't settle into a back-end role, but could help to stabilize the middle-innings and could give the Cubs more match-up-options with his reverse splits. As well, Webb represents another contract that should not break the bank, allowing the Cubs the flexibility this offseason on who or what their "big additions" could be. Tatsuya Imai or Alex Bregman both remain more-than-in-play from a salary standpoint after this contract. What do you think of the addition of Jacob Webb? Do you think he will help bring stability into the middle-innings? Sound off in the comments below! View the full article

On Tuesday, the Chicago Cubs agreed to a contract with right handed reliever Jacob Webb, formerly of the Texas Rangers. More details to follow.... View the full article

Fifty years ago, Major League Baseball was forced to adopt a rule change that would drastically change the sport forever. This wasn’t a traditional rule change like the universal DH, larger bases, pace of play initiatives or the shift ban. This was a change that would finally put more power in the hands of players when it came to where they played and how much they were paid. This rule change, of course, was the elimination of the reserve clause, which created modern free agency. Prior to free agency, a team held the rights to a player even after their contract expired. After a contract expired, the team could offer the player a new contract, trade them, reassign them to the minors, or sell the rights to another team. This left players with little-to-no negotiating power, as they could only ask for a trade/release or refuse to play. Since its inception in 1975, free agency has evolved and changed due to updated CBAs, but the bottom line remains the same: players now have much more influence in who they play for. Here is a list of the most impactful Cubs free agent signings of all time: 10. Rod Beck The 1998 season was a good one in which to be a Cubs fan. With a record of 90-73 (including winning a one-game playoff with San Francisco), the Cubs returned to the postseason for the first time since 1989. Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire each broke Roger Maris’s single-season home run record, with McGwire winning the home run race but Sosa winning the MVP. On the pitching side, Kerry Wood made his debut, and struck out 20 batters in his fifth career start. The one-year deal given to seemingly washed-up ex-closer Rod “Shooter” Beck seems like an afterthought, but his 51 saves were second in the NL, trailing only future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman. He was also a great example of durability out of the pen, leading the NL in games pitched with 81. Though Beck was not an All-Star with Chicago, his 81 strikeouts and 1.3 WAR were the third-highest marks of his 13-year career. Beck was also a fun player to watch. He had a lazy-looking windup (it was slow and incorporated a pretty high leg kick), but he thrived off deception, so the unique delivery helped him fool hitters with his nasty forkball. Modern Cubs fans are used to feeling uneasy in the ninth inning, so it’s nice to look back to a time where they had a proven closer to lock it down. 9. Shota Imanaga Imanaga is the only current Cub who makes this list, and his inclusion speaks to what he represents outside of his pure stats. The two-time NPB All-Star was posted by his former team, the Yokohama Bay Stars, after the 2023 season. He spent much of his free agency in the shadow of countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto, before signing with the Cubs in January 2024. The four-year, $53-million deal that brought Imanaga to the Cubs had some unique aspects that made it far from the traditional free-agent contract, and we saw this play out this offseason. After Year 2 of the deal, the Cubs had the option to extend the contract to five years, but if the Cubs declined to extend him, he could opt out. The Cubs did not extend him, and Imanaga ended up opting out, though he accepted the qualifying offer for $22.025 million over one year, instead. Imanaga will be back in the rotation in 2026, and while the end of his 2025 campaign rang some alarm bells, his time in Chicago as a whole has exceeded expectations. He has a 24-11 record, a 3.28 ERA, and 291 strikeouts across 318 MLB innings. His 2024 season alone cemented him on this list, as he went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA, accumulated 3.0 WAR, and made the All-Star team. He also finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting and fifth for the NL Cy Young. Imanaga quickly became a fan favorite, as he and Justin Steele formed one of the best rotation duos in baseball. Hopefully, he regains some of his 2024 form for next season, but regardless of how 2026 goes, the Cubs would not have turned a corner without the help of Imanaga. 8. Moisés Alou Alou’s most memorable moment as a Cub is probably the most infamous moment in franchise history, but let's focus on the impact he made on the field. Before the 2002 season, the Cubs signed the 35-year-old to a three-year deal worth $27 million. (This was during a time when a player in his mid-30s could secure a multi-year deal, play almost every day, and be counted on as a middle-of-the-order bat.) In his three seasons with the team, Alou slashed .283/.353/.484, making an All-Star team in 2004 while finishing seventh in the league in home runs (39). He spent most of his Cubs tenure hitting behind Sammy Sosa, forming a powerful heart of the order that also included a young Aramis Ramírez. He was a key reason why the Cubs made it back to October in 2003, their first time since 1998. 7. Alfonso Soriano After Alou departed following the 2004 season, left field was a bit of a revolving door for the Cubs. Todd Hollandsworth was the Opening Day left fielder in 2005, but he was more of a bench bat during his years as a Cub. Prospect Matt Murton won the job in 2006, but he quickly proved that he wasn’t going to be the force in the lineup that many thought he would be. For the 2007 season, GM Jim Hendry needed to make some impactful changes to vault the team back into contention. One of those was signing lovable yet hot-tempered manager Lou Piniella, and the other was handing out the largest free-agent contract in franchise history (at the time) to Alfonso Soriano—an eight-year deal worth almost $136 million, nearly double what his former team, the Washington Nationals, were looking to give him. The five-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger was just coming off the fourth 40/40 season in MLB history, and the Cubs needed another star to pair with Derrek Lee and Ramírez. Although he was a streaky hitter prone to swing and miss, he still launched 181 home runs as a Cub, which is good for 12th on the Cubs' all-time home run list. In six and a half seasons with the team, Soriano slashed .264/.317/.495, made two All-Star teams, and played a key role in two playoff runs. Soriano is likely the second-most loved left fielder the team has had since 2000, trailing only Ian Happ. 6. Dexter Fowler In 2014, we saw the debuts of some of the eventual championship core. Anthony Rizzo was already entrenched at first base, but Javier Báez and Kyle Hendricks were called up for the first time. With Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Albert Almora Jr., and Willson Contreras on the way, Cubs fans could start to buy into Theo Epstein’s vision. Before acquiring Fowler from Houston for 2015, the Cubs had been using a merry-go-round of mediocre options in center field, such as Arismendy Alcantara, Emilio Bonifacio, Junior Lake and Ryan Sweeney. Fowler slashed a respectable yet unspectacular .250/.346/.447 in his first season in Chicago, but helped the team reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. The seven-year veteran brought leadership to a young, emerging team looking for a catalyst at the top of the order. It was rumored that Fowler was going to leave the Cubs to join the Orioles on a four-year deal, but that contract never got across the finish line. Instead, Fowler chose to surprise Cubs players and fans by returning on a one-year deal. Joe Maddon famously told Fowler “You go, we go”, and Fowler took that seriously. He had the best season of his career, he slashed .276/.393/.447 and had 4.0 WAR on the season, while making his first and only All-Star team. He had the lowest chase percentage in baseball, only swinging at 19.4% of pitches outside the strike zone. This was essential for a lineup that had a few free swingers in it. Even if he was not the catalyst or leader that he was, Fowler would be on this list, because he gave us one of the greatest greatest Cubs home runs of all-time, and became the first Black player to start a World Series for the Cubs. View the full article

If there is one tradition Derek Falvey truly embraces, it is waiting until the absolute last possible moment. Roster decisions, offseason direction, and now Christmas shopping all follow the same internal clock. With Christmas lights already boxed back up at Target Field, the Twins front office is once again sprinting through the metaphorical mall, hoping nobody notices the receipts. This year, Falvey reportedly made one strategic adjustment. The biggest gifts are being reserved for the staff members in charge of season ticket renewals. These employees have spent the last two seasons absorbing daily phone calls that begin with a long sigh and end with a threat to follow the Wild instead. After payroll slashing and with an on-field product that collapsed two years in a row, Falvey decided a fruit basket was no longer enough. Sources say the gifts include noise-cancelling headphones, premium stress balls, and a handwritten note that simply reads 'Thank you for your service'. The Twins briefly explored giving, raises but pivoted to something more flexible and cost-controlled. Not everyone on the list is still with the organization. Louis Varland reportedly received a Canadian-themed gift package to celebrate his first Christmas as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. Inside was a collection of maple syrup, a toque, and possibly the contractual rights to Edouard Julien. Falvey framed it as a gesture of goodwill, and not at all a way to clean out the filing cabinet before the new year. The most elaborate gift may belong to Dave St. Peter. Falvey is said to be presenting the former Twins president with a 'travel the world' package, designed to keep him as far away from Target Field as possible during the upcoming season. The itinerary includes extended stays in places with no cellular service and absolutely no access to Minnesota sports radio. It is being billed as a wellness retreat for everyone involved. Other gifts are more symbolic. Derek Shelton is rumored to be receiving a laminated lineup card that never changes and a candle labeled 'patience'. Joe Pohlad is expected to get Commercial Real Estate for Dummies; no word on whether Tom will also get A Complete Idiot's Guide to Baseball. Twins fans are believed to be receiving an email promising clarity soon; it should arrive sometime after the snow melts. Falvey himself plans to keep things simple. He reportedly bought a mirror, wrapped it carefully, and labeled it 'culture'. In a season defined by austerity, it feels fitting. The Twins may not be giving fans what they want this Christmas, but at least everyone in the building knows the front office is thinking about them—even if it is at the last minute, and even if the receipt is definitely being kept just in case, View the full article

As the Padres look toward rebuilding the magic from last year on what is likely to be a reduced payroll, AJ Preller has made at least one curious minor league signing: Jose Miranda. The minor league contract, first reported by Aram Leighton, includes an invite to Spring Training. While it might not amount to anything, there’s a chance that Miranda could mirror another AL Central cast-off turned into a monster hitter by the Padres. If you’ve heard of Miranda, there is likely one of two reasons. First, he is the cousin of Hamilton and Encanto creator Lin Manuel-Miranda. The second was his surprising hitting steak; Miranda knocked 12 hits in consecutive at-bats, the first time ever in the Expansion League Era that dates to 1961. (For the pedantic, it also included one walk in the middle. But that makes it a plate appearance rather than an at-bat). Unfortunately, that spotlight has dimmed considerably for the hitter: last season was spent almost exclusively with Minnesota’s Triple A team, the St. Paul Saints, where he posted a brutal .597 OPS. A Puerto Rican native, the Twins drafted Miranda in the second round of the MLB Draft in 2016. In 2021, he shot up the prospect board with a .973 OPS between the team’s Double-A and Triple-A teams. His 2022 rookie campaign, mostly as a third baseman, included an impressive 15 home runs and 25 doubles with a .751 OPS over just under 500 plate appearances. The 2023 season, however, put a dent in the rookie sensation. He lacked both the power as well as swing discipline that solidified his spot in the line up, finally sitting out the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Miranda quickly rebounded for the 2024 season. After Royce Lewis injured himself on Opening Day, Miranda quickly slotted back into his third base spot and proved his worth. Trading some power and few walks, he focused in on the swing zone while becoming a chase hitter, finding his way to difficult pitches to keep plate appearances alive. He eventually posted an impressive .319/.316/.510 through the end of July, including that impressive hitting streak. As Miranda told the Minnesota writers, “I’m extremely happy where I am right now. I have to keep it rolling.” Reader, he did not keep it rolling. After July, Miranda posted just a 53 WRC+ in the Twins’ 2024 season collapse that kept them outside the playoffs. While no one player can be responsible, his 63% drop was the worst among the flailing team. With Lewis back for 2025 and Miranda’s defense at third already considered subpar (he posted -7 Outs Above Average in 2024), the Twins slotted him as a potential 1B/DH combo. But just a couple weeks into the season, the team sent him down to Triple-A where a freak accident would sideline any comeback. While at a local Target, Miranda accidentally caught a 24-pack of water bottles awkwardly after it slipped out of his hands—enough to mess with whatever mechanics he had going. After returning, Miranda continued to find contact but ended up under the Mendoza Line for the St. Paul Saints with a .214 BABIP. Although he was never meant to be a slugger, any power felt drained. Even after the fire sale left the Twins in need of anyone with a glove, Miranda remained in the minors before the team cleared him off the 40-man roster earlier this off season. But that does not mean his story has to end there. If there’s a comp for Preller, it is certainly Gavin Sheets. Signed last year to a minor league deal, Sheets smashed a game-tying pinch-hit homer on Opening Day and kept himself in the line-up all year long with incredible clutches. While Sheets attributed his success to simply joining a winning team, he made critical adjustments across his swing profile, becoming one of the more dominant at pulling balls in the air, laying off first pitches, and significantly increasing his bat speed. While the Padres have signaled some interest in a reunion with Luis Arráez, Miranda could slide in with Sheets as a platoon at first base., Miranda’s previous success is more than Sheets ever had with Chicago; it’s now about simply unlocking what previously occurred. If anything, Minnesota has had a unique problem in recent years developing hitters, especially in their transition between Triple A and the majors. Any minor league contract is basically a lottery ticket; the Padres could score another huge jackpot if they can unlock his power. But this time, Miranda better not throw away his shot. View the full article

Milwaukee Brewers top prospect Jesús Made has all of the tools to be the team's long-term shortstop. Here is a quick breakdown of his five prospect tools, why he could make his debut early, and what gives him the nod over fellow Brewers pipeline names Cooper Pratt and Luis Peña. View the full article

Willson Contreras is officially headed to Fenway. While minor leaguers Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita are sent packing to Saint Louis. This solves a lot of problems for the Red Sox, but it raises questions for players like Triston Casas and Romy González. View the full article

As the end of the 2025 calendar year draws near, so does the deadline for tenured BBWAA members to vote on the next class of inductees for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Ballots must be postmarked by December 31, and on January 20, we will learn which newcomers and ballot holdovers garnered the minimum 75 percent needed for enshrinement. Although Fish On First staffers do not partake in the official voting, we carefully analyze the candidates every year. If FOF was solely responsible for the class of 2026 HOF selection, who would make the cut? Ten of our staffers submitted ballots this year. Just as the BBWAA does, voters were permitted to choose up to 10 candidates. Players named on at least five ballots garnered a spot on the collective FOF ballot ("tie goes to the player," if you will). Honorable Mentions Félix Hernández, SP: For the second year in a row, King Félix finds himself a mere honorable mention, just missing as he appeared on four of the 10 submitted ballots. As we wrote last winter, Hernández's peak, while certainly comparable to that of a Hall of Fame pitcher, isn't accompanied by enough late-career years of serviceable performance. In his first year of eligibility in 2025, though, Hernández found his way onto 20.6 percent of ballots cast, a number that bodes well should his case be further examined as time progresses. With his career coinciding with a rapid decline in MLB's reliance on starting pitchers, Hernández would prove a worthy example to base future candidates' cases on. Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, SP: Given the overwhelming similarities of their careers, I've lumped these two into one blurb. While he may never have screamed "ace," I am of the mind that consistency warrants serious Cooperstown consideration when it comes to Buehrle. His 13 seasons of 200-plus innings pitched—11 of which ended with an ERA+ better than league average—speak to that notion. Buehrle (3,283.1 IP and 117 ERA+) and Pettitte (3,316.0 IP and 117 ERA+) are two of 63 pitchers in baseball history to throw at least 3,000 regular season innings and post an ERA+ of 115 or better. Maybe not sustained greatness, but points for consistency. Cole Hamels, SP: If you're of the "need to see more crowd" when making the case against Félix Hernández, then maybe Cole Hamels is your guy. With comparable innings totals and nearly a 10-WAR lead over the former, Hamels was a workhorse relative to his era, throwing the sixth-most innings of any pitcher in the 2010s. Among the 89 pitchers who threw at least 1,000 innings in said decade, Hamels was one of just 14 to sport an ERA+ of 120 or better. He'll most certainly benefit from a feeble class of first-year candidates, though only three of our staffers had him on their ballots. If you want some more insight into Hamels, we published this piece discussing his Hall of Fame credentials. The Selections Bobby Abreu, RF MLB teams: HOU, PHI, NYY, LAA, LAD, NYM Seventh year of HOF eligibility While Bobby Abreu's peak was largely overshadowed by the likes of Barry Bonds and Co., Abreu put forth a decade of consistency that saw him as one of the sport's most complete position players. From 1998-2008, Abreu's average offensive season looked as such: 302/.407/.502/.909, 105 R, 22 HR, 96 RBI, 28 SB, 4.8 WAR. Of the 38 hitters with at least 5,000 plate appearances in that span, Abreu's 54.2 bWAR ranks seventh, just edging out the next-most valuable player, Carlos Beltrán. In the 2000's, Abreu's 2,785 times on base trailed only future Hall of Famer, Todd Helton (2,796). To illustrate his all-around offensive game, three players in MLB history have hit at least 275 home runs, stolen 400 bases, and posted a .395 or better on-base percentage: Barry Bonds, the late Rickey Henderson, and Bobby Abreu. Nine of our 10 staffers had him on their ballots, and when you put it all together, that sounds like a Hall of Famer to me. As of Tuesday morning, Abreu has received 45.0% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Carlos Beltrán, CF MLB teams: KC, HOU, NYM, SFG, STL, NYY, TEX Fourth year of HOF eligibility If Bobby Abreu was one of the sport's more complete players, his contemporary in Carlos Beltrán was that and then some. As we all know, Beltrán finds himself returning for a fourth try at induction due to his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing schedule. While certainly a thorn in his legacy, Beltrán is among the game's most universally respected players, and the 70.3 percent he received in 2025 almost makes it a sure thing that he'll headline the class of 2026. From age 22-32 between 1999-2009, Beltrán was the only player in the sport to hit at least 250 home runs, steal 250 bases, and save 70 runs on defense, making him the fourth-most valuable player overall. He accrued 56.1 bWAR in that span alone. With all ten staffers in agreement, Beltrán's here, hopefully for the last time. As of Tuesday morning, Beltrán has received 77.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Andruw Jones, CF MLB teams: ATL, LAD, TEX, CHW, NYY Ninth year of HOF eligibility Andruw Jones is arguably the greatest defensive center fielder of all time. The native of Curacao paired his historically great glove with raw power, mashing 434 home runs over the course of his career. Trivia question: Who are the two players in MLB history to hit 400 home runs and save 200 runs on defense? Adrián Beltré and Andruw Jones. The Jones case isn't a definitive one, though, as noted by his many times on the ballot. From a statistical perspective, traditionalists scoff at the lack of counting stats. Largely done as a productive player after age 30, Jones bounced around from four times in his last five seasons, hitting .210/.316/.424/.740, respectively. While he never truly lost his feel on defense, the stark disparity between Jones' twenties versus his thirties was night and day. Upon retirement, Jones' career hit total of 1,933 and batting average of .254 had many casting him off as a viable Hall of Fame candidate, but one cannot deny the decade of dominance that saw him as one of the game's brightest stars. Off the field, Jones was accused of domestic violence against his now ex-wife, Nicole, a thorn in his case when considering the character clause. If Jones doesn't get the requisite totals needed, it would be because of these factors. Having polled at 61.6% and 66.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, it feels as though 2026 should be the year that Jones finally gets the call. He garnered unanimous support from our staffers. As of Tuesday morning, Jones has received 77.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Manny Ramírez, OF MLB teams: CLE, BOS, LAD, CHW, TBR 10th year of HOF eligibility If you're discussing the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, it'd behoove you to mention the man born as Manuel Aristides Ramírez. There are only 18 hitters in major league history to take at least 9,000 plate appearances and retire with an adjusted OPS+ fifty percent better than league average. Of the bunch, only two aren't in the Hall—the aforementioned Bonds and Manny Ramírez, both of whom have ties to performance-enhancing drugs. While Bonds was never suspended for a failed test, Ramírez got popped twice, the second of which forced him into an early retirement in 2011. Had he played clean on the merits of his talent, Ramírez is more than likely already in Cooperstown, but his transgressions are why he's never received more than 34.3 percent of the vote. It is highly likely he falls short of the required 75 percent needed once again, though nine of the ten of us said what he did in the batter's box should be enough. As of Tuesday morning, Ramírez has received 32.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Álex Rodríguez, 3B/SS MLB teams: SEA, TEX, NYY Fifth year of HOF eligibility Álex Rodríguez is one of the greatest baseball players of all-time. Álex Rodríguez is also one of, if not the most, reviled player the game has ever seen. If Bonds is the name most think of when considering the Steroid era, then what transpired with Rodríguez was the manifestation of what most envision should have happened to Bonds. Failing PED tests in 2003 and 2006, as well as being named in the Biogenesis report in 2013, Rodríguez took any chances he had at the Hall of Fame and flushed them completely. His naming in the Biogenesis report netted him a 162-game suspension (originally 211 games before being reduced), then the longest handed out to an active player. The difference with the otherwise fringe HOF guys is that you felt you were watching a Hall of Famer when seeing A-Rod play. Does that absolve him of his sins? Maybe not, but it echoes a similar sentiment as to what was noted about Bonds earlier in his career with the "he was a Hall of Famer before steroids" quip. Voting for him will always come with some pause, but his on-field accomplishments—three MVPs and 696 home runs—are undeniable. Polling between 34 and 37 percent in his first four years of eligibility, it isn't out of the question for Rodríguez to see his fortunes change in the next six or so years. As of Tuesday morning, he has received 40.0% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Chase Utley, 2B MLB teams: PHI, LAD Third year of HOF eligibility The Cooperstown case for Chase Utley is a drum I'll continue to beat until he gets his just desserts. If he does find his way into the Hall one day, I would hope it serves as impetus to right the wrongs done to the likes of Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, both second basemen north of 70 WAR. At 64.6 bWAR, Utley is the twelfth-most valuable second baseman of all time, per Baseball-Reference. What he lacks in accolades, Utley makes up for in his all-around game, being one of only four players to simultaneously have 250 home runs, 150 stolen bases, and 100 runs saved on defense. Like Jones, he has fewer than 2,000 hits, but only four players hit more than Utley's 252 home runs as a second baseman. Fellow second baseman, Jeff Kent, was recently elected to the Contemporary Era Committee largely on the strength of his 351 home runs being the most ever for a player at the position, the Mike Piazza argument, if you will. However, Kent's 55.4 bWAR is nine wins short of Utley. Utley may not have been as overwhelmingly brilliant a hitter as, say, Ramirez or Rodriguez, but the amalgam of his skills are why all ten of us here at Fish On First voted for him. He saw his BBWAA percentage jump from 28.8 to 39.8 percent between 2024 and 2025, and as of Tuesday morning, he has received 60.0% of the vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Until he is a Hall of Famer, you can expect to hear more from me about Chase Utley. View the full article

The home stretch - the best assets available to the Royals coming into 2026. Four of the top five are homegrown, a testament to the Picollo regime after the dreary days of Dayton Moore. The number two asset being acquired via trade was one of the biggest differentiators between Picollo and Moore when Picollo completed the trade in the summer of 2023, his first trade deadline after taking over the role, as Moore had garnered a reputation for hanging on for too long and selling for too little. Let’s take a look at the future of your Kansas City Royals. Part 1: #21-25 Part 2: #16-20 Part 3: #11-15 Part 4: #6-10 5. Carter Jensen, Catcher Age: 22, Team control through 2031 Drafted in the third round of the 2021 MLB draft, Jensen has popped onto the major league stage after making his appearance in September this year. In 69 plate appearances, he had a slash line of .300/.391/.550 and a wRC+ of 159, meaning he was 59 percent better than league average at creating runs when adjusted for ballpark and other factors. He is the future behind home plate until Blake Mitchell comes knocking. Salvador Perez signed a two-year extension this year, but will most certainly be trading some of his own reps at catcher for more reps at first base and designated hitter, leaving the opportunity open for Jensen to build on his 2025. The biggest question will be how he adjusts to major league pitching over the course of a full season, but so far, the future is bright. 4. Jac Caglianone, Right Field Age: 22, Team control through 2031 The sixth overall pick in 2024, Caglianone made his debut at the beginning of June after demolishing minor league pitching in Double A and Triple A this year to the tune of a 1.025 OPS, 170 wRC+, and 20 home runs in only 66 games. That, coupled with the Royals' desperate need for an offensive spark plug, catapulted him to the majors earlier than most expected. In 62 games at the major league level, he struggled to a .532 OPS and 46 wRC+. However, this came with a .172 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), a 12% barrel rate, and a 77.4 mph bat speed (re: elite bat speed). He still has tremendous power and ran into some “bad luck”, but he will absolutely need to adjust to major league pitching to stay in the lineup, as he was already a strikeout risk in the minors chasing pitches 34 percent of the time. His 40 home run power and prospect status will see him get plenty of chances in 2026. 3. Maikel Garcia, Third Base Age: 25, Team control through 2030 with club option in 2031 Garcia is still letting the ink dry on a recent five-year extension for $57.5 million that will keep him at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. He broke out in a huge way this year, going for 5.6 fWAR, an .800 OPS, and close to a 20/20 home run and stolen base campaign while maintaining a 121 wRC+ and providing elite defense at a +13 fielding run value (97th percentile) per Baseball Savant. If we use the approximate dollar value per WAR of $9 million, 87% of Garcia’s new contract was payment for how well 2025 went. He provided 3.4 total fWAR in 2023 and 2024, so even if he averages 1.7 fWAR per year for the rest of the contract, he will be providing significant value to the Royals to the tune of a $19 million surplus. He has great plate discipline and is only 25, so he may add a little more muscle while he’s in his prime to garner some more power. 2. Cole Ragans, Starting Pitcher Age: 28, Team control through 2028 The Royals ace, Ragans, came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman trade in 2023, when the Royals signed Chapman to a one-year deal to use as a trade chip at the deadline, and what a return they’ve gotten. You and controllable pitching are sought after by nearly every team every year. Ragans has fit that to a tee after breaking out in 2024 and only improving his whiff and strikeout percentage in 2025. He pitched only 61 innings this year after dealing with a rotator cuff strain and had an ERA of 4.67, but all underlying advanced metrics show closer to 2.50, as he had some poor luck and was below average on his left-on-base rate. He has an electric slider, and his fastball velocity has returned to pre-injury levels. He’s projected for another 4.2 fWAR, 3.20 ERA, and over 170 innings, precisely what you want from your top of the rotation guy. Several rumors had his name swirling in the Royals' search for an outfielder this offseason, but J.J. Picollo has stated several times he’s not going anywhere. 1. Bobby Witt Jr., Shortstop Age: 25; Team control through 2030 with opt-outs from 2030-2033 and club options in 2035-2037. What more can be said about the 2019 second overall pick? He’s young at a premier defensive position and provides elite offensive production, speed, and defense. He’s the best Royals player since George Brett and has signed on for the long haul with his 11-year, $288 million contract in 2024. He’s given the Royals 18.5 fWAR over the last two years and is a consistent 30 home run, 30 stolen base threat. His contract escalates quickly over the next few years, going from $13.7 million in 2026 to $19.7 million in 2027 and then over $30 million in 2028 and beyond, but he has been worth every penny so far and will almost certainly continue this production in the future. You can likely count on one hand the number of other players that have the same value. He is the Kansas City Royals. This concludes our top 25 valuable Royals assets entering the 2026 season. Let us know if you agree with our list, who we missed, and who might be next! View the full article

Since visiting the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, it's been a small hobby of mine to track the balloting, predicting who will get in, and seeing how accurate the predictions are. With the holidays upon us and activity slowing to a trickle, it seems a good time to tackle the thought exercise of building my own proposed ballot. This is a fairly lean year for worthy candidates. Really, the only addition who has a chance is pitcher Cole Hamels. He doesn't get my vote because his peak was too low, and his career stats not impressive enough to make up for it. Sorry, too, to Nick Markakis, Howie Kendrick, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ryan Braun. All of them had solid careers; they can make the Hall of Solid. Vote 1: Carlos Beltrán Beltrán was a versatile, well-rounded player for his 20-year career. While he was never crowned MVP, he did make nine All-Star teams and win three Gold Gloves. Winning was his strong suit; he led five different franchises to the playoffs. Only seven other players have reached his 300-home run and 300-stolen base status. All of these make him worthy of enshrinement in his fourth year of eligibility. In his seven postseasons, Beltrán played at an extremely high level. His playoff slash line was .307/.412/.609 in 256 plate appearances. Through no fault of his own, Beltrán was eliminated short of a championship every year until his age-40 season, winning in 2017 as a mercenary for Houston. (Of course, he might already be in if not for the cheating he facilitated on that final team.) Anecdotally, the Puerto Rican center fielder was consistently thought of as a top player in the game, a truly graceful outfielder on both offense and defense. He's the most obvious vote on this shallow ballot. Vote 2: Félix Hernández Hernández did not have a long peak. He did have a seven-year stretch where he was a Cy Young candidate, winning the award in 2010. That year was indicative of his absolute dominance: 2.27 ERA, 7.2 WAR, 232 strikeouts in 246 innings. In that brief but brilliant span, he never had an ERA over 3.04, and consistently started over 30 games. Hernández won the Cy Young in a year when his won loss record was just 13-12. Voters for the award had to change their traditional voting pattern. In that same vein, pitching voters can now value peak over longevity. For a long stretch, he was the best pitcher in baseball, or at least on the short list of them. Injuries prevented him from sustaining this, but the peak gets him my vote here. Vote 3: Andruw Jones Cubs fans of the moment can appreciate elite center-field defense, after watching Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jones delivered that same level of defense for a decade—plus a 111 wRC+ bat. Jones had over 30 home runs seven times, peaking with 51 and 41 in 2005 and 2006. Also, not insignificantly, Jones won 10 Gold Gloves, although he played at a time when three center fielders could (and often did) win each year in the outfield. Anecdotally, Jones was a key part of the Atlanta Braves' impressive 1990s run. When you factor his team success, his prominence on the team, the all time great defense and solid bat, this is another guy worthy of the plaque. It's important to remember that he comes with significant off-field baggage. He was arrested and charged in a domestic violence incident in 2012, after a Christmas Eve altercation in which he choked his wife. Whether that should be disqualifying, though, is up to each reader and thinker; the incident occurred after his playing career was over and there are (sadly) many people who did similarly heinous things to their partners in the Hall already. Close, but nope: Dustin Pedroia, David Wright and Chase Utley: Great players, but injuries keep them just below the line. Bobby Abreu: Better than many remember, and modern stats love him, but defense and lack of elite elite numbers put him just short. It's a high bar, guys! Manny Ramírez/Alex Rodriguez: Numbers worthy, but too many steroid things. Precedent matters here. Since Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens failed to be enshrined for 10 years and recently were rejected by the Veteran's Committee, and they are better than Ramírez and Rodriguez, the vote still has to be a no. What do you guys think? Should Omar Vizquel get in, despite serious allegations that he was mistreating people even during his career? Andy Pettitte? Torii Hunter, a poor man's Jones? Thanks for reading. Enjoy your holidays, and your debates. View the full article

The Twins' rotation is far from finalized, but with as good a one-two punch as any team and a wealth of options to fill out the final three spots, they should feel great about their rotation depth headed into 2026. Should they take advantage of this and use their depth to fill out the roster elsewhere? Despite being less than perfect, the rotation was far from the biggest reason the team struggled in 2025. A lack of performance and depth in the lineup plagued the Twins for much of last season, and those concerns remain heading into 2026. With starting pitching always in high demand and the Twins likely to once again reduce the payroll, dealing from their group of potential rotation pieces is a creative way to take some swings at improving the lineup. Bailey Ober stands out as perhaps the most puzzling member of the potentially tradable group of starting pitchers. This year was an abject disaster for him: After a strong start, Ober became untenable in the rotation and was eventually placed on the IL due to a hip injury. He would return and look a bit better down the stretch, but his reduced velocity stayed that way, and he would finish the season with a career-worst 5.10 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate. On one hand, Ober has been a durable mid-rotation starter for years, and it may be worth writing off one bad season in hopes of a rebound. On the other hand, Ober has battled injuries throughout his career, and there’s a chance it may have caught up to him at age 30. His fastball averaged just a touch over 90 mph and often sank into the high 80s in the middle innings in 2025. A pitching-needy team may see a worthwhile gamble in Ober. He won’t bring a star in return, but one rough season shouldn't totally torpedo his value. He may be the best option to trade for an MLB-ready position player, if the Twins feel comfortable letting him go. Another starter the Twins could ship out is Simeon Woods Richardson. Now out of options, Woods Richardson has to be carried on the roster out of camp. This lack of flexibility could push the Twins in the direction of trading him to a team with fewer candidates to fill out the back end of their rotation. Like Ober, Woods Richardson would not bring back premium value, but the return would have to make sense. He’s cheap, team-controlled, and capable of taking another step at just 25 years old. He may have already shown signs of doing so last season, as his new splitter became a weapon for him down the stretch. He offers a higher floor than many of the younger rotation options and may not be as lacking in upside as we once thought. If the Twins can find a position player version of Woods Richardson, a swap may be hard to pass up. The Astros could be interested in a swap like that, and Woods Richardson is a Houston-area native. The Athletics could fit on a deal. So could the Rangers. The less established rotation options can be grouped together when making a case to trade them. The Twins likely have their favorites among Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and Andrew Morris, and it would come down to matching up how they value these names in comparison to other pitching-needy teams. Perhaps the Twins would be less inclined to deal from this group, before seeing them put together a bigger sample size. If another team is in love with one of them and is willing to blow them away to get their guy, though, the Twins may be wise to take a chance and improve their roster while reducing the logjam they currently have in the rotation. As things stand, it’s hard to find immediate space for everyone between both the Triple-A and big-league rotations. Some of them may transition to the bullpen, but there simply aren’t enough spots for everyone on paper. It’s possible the Twins' convictions about competing in 2026 are not as strong as we’d like to think. If that’s the case, they may very well choose not to get creative in trading team-controlled assets until at least the trade deadline. If they’re serious about getting this roster in shape, though, dealing from the rotation may be the best way to do it. Should the Twins dig into the starting rotation depth to try to build a more competitive roster in 2026? Are some of these potential rotation pieces better trade candidates than others? Let us know below! View the full article

It's become an annual tradition in Milwaukee: A pitcher acquired in a minor transaction breaks out as a consistent middle reliever who can handle occasional high-leverage work for a couple of seasons. It was Hoby Milner in 2022, Joel Payamps the following year, Jared Koenig after that, and Grant Anderson in 2025. None of them truly emerged out of nowhere, though. The Brewers brought each of them in because they saw qualities that could make them effective: Milner and Anderson's deception; Payamps's sweeping slider; and Koenig's velocity spike upon becoming a full-time reliever. The front office constructs strong bullpens by continually stockpiling intriguing pitch qualities throughout the organization. Not all of those guys pan out, but if you collect enough spaghetti to throw at the wall, some will stick to round out an eight-man bullpen. Easton McGee fit that mold from the moment the Brewers signed him to a two-year, minor-league deal in November 2023, making him a name to watch in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Sure enough, he joined the 40-man roster in May and spent the summer riding the bullpen shuttle between Milwaukee and Nashville. The results were unimposing. In 14 ⅔ low-leverage innings, McGee pitched to a 5.52 ERA and 103 DRA-. The real accomplishment of his season was that he showcased the qualities in his post-surgery arsenal that could yield future success. A former starter, McGee throws five pitches with distinct shapes, plus a rarely-used changeup. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, his sinker induced ground balls on 57.8% of batted balls, while his four-seamer produced a 31.1% whiff rate. Both pitches jumped from averaging 90 mph to 93 mph with the move to the bullpen. A more consistent cutter gave McGee the fully-developed trio of fastballs the Brewers love, and he has two big breaking pitches to choose from based on the angles he wants to play in a given matchup. Pitch grading models see McGee's stuff as average, but some of the movement he creates is more impressive from his arm angle. He stands 6-foot-7, but his low-three-quarters delivery pushes his average release height (5.5 feet) below the league norm for right-handed pitchers (5.8 feet). From that slot, one would expect McGee to be a sinker-slider guy, and those two pitches made up his primary mix to righties in 2025. However, his four-seamer and curveball are arguably his most deceptive offerings. The former had two more inches of carry than usual for his arm angle, while the latter had three more inches of unexpected depth. McGee could join Anderson as a sinkerballer by trade who leans more heavily on an effective high four-seamer over time. He already used his curveball more frequently in the big leagues, perhaps because it's the only secondary offering he throws from a nearly identical arm slot to his fastballs. The right-hander still has some hurdles to clear before a breakout season. His delivery puts him at risk of struggling with platoon splits, which was already the case in his debut. While righties managed just a .252 xwOBA against McGee, his low slot is a much easier look for lefties, who tagged him for a .366 xwOBA. To hedge those splits, McGee must find a way to be deceptive most of the time, not just with a particular pitch. Given the array of shapes in his arsenal, that may be a matter of deciding which pitches to use, learning how to sequence them, and developing more consistent release points. If McGee makes those strides, don't be surprised if he ascends from the roster bubble to become a regular contributor. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays fell short of winning the 2025 World Series, but their lengthy postseason run yielded financial benefits to the players, other personnel, and the team/owner. As Jay Centre’s Leo Morgenstern noted in his article, Details on Blue Jays' Share of Postseason Revenue Pool, Toronto’s players and other employees will share in the $128.2 million players’ pool. The amount allocated to the Blue Jays was $30.8 million. At the club/owner level, there were also financial rewards from the Blue Jays’ postseason journey. From this point forward, unless stated otherwise, any reference to what the Blue Jays received from the postseason run excludes any compensation due to the players or other employees. In other words, the focus is on the financial benefits to the Blue Jays’ company/Rogers Communications. The first reward is Toronto’s share of postseason gate receipts. This number is not currently publicly available, but we can use the $128.2 million players’ pool figure and other publicly available figures to estimate the amount the Blue Jays received in postseason gate receipts. Let’s get started! Below is an excerpt from a 2012 FanGraphs article. My understanding is that the allocation above is accurate except for the Wild Card games. When Wendy Thurm wrote the aforementioned FanGraphs article, the Wild Card round was only one game long, as opposed to the current best-of-three format. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (Article X), players receive 60 percent of paid attendance receipts for the first two games of each Wild Card Series. So, what were the total gate receipts from the 2025 postseason? A back-of-the-envelope calculation is as follows: There were 47 playoff games in 2025, 32 of which were games used to determine the $128.2 million players’ pool amount. Given that the players’ share of the gate receipts is 60% of the games noted in the excerpt, those games are equivalent to 19.2 games (32 games x 0.60). Accordingly, the gate receipts per game are $6.7 million ($128.2 million / 19.2 games). Total gate receipts are the number of games multiplied by the gate receipts per game. Hence, total gate receipts are $314.9 million (47 games x $6.7 million). The Commissioner’s Office would receive $47.2 million ($314.9 million x 0.15). Accordingly, the "teams’ pool" is $139.5 million ($314.9 million - $128.2 million - $47.2 million). However, concerning Toronto’s share of gate receipts, we require a more detailed calculation because postseason teams do not share in the teams’ pool per se. Instead, the two teams in each series share equally in the gate receipts allocated to them. Therefore, a more precise estimate of Toronto’s share of gate receipts requires attendance figures and ticket prices for each series. Onto the tables! Table 1 shows MLB’s 2025 postseason attendance by series. Table 2 presents my estimates of gate receipts by series and the allocation of gate receipts to players, teams, and the Commissioner’s Office. Please note that I increased the average ticket price as the postseason continued. I arbitrarily increased the average Wild Card Series ticket price for the Division Series, Championship Series and World Series by factors of 1.25, 1.50 and 2.00, respectively. I am comfortable with the ticket prices shown because they generated the $128.2 million Players’ Pool figure, and the $316.7 million total gate receipts were within 0.6% of my back-of-the-envelope $314.9 million estimate. Please note that, for each series Toronto played, the teams’ share of gate receipts was split equally between the ballclubs. Accordingly, the Blue Jays shared gate receipts with the Yankees (Division Series), the Mariners (League Championship Series), and the Dodgers (World Series). Hence, Tables 1 and 2, and the supporting numbers, are essential for calculating Toronto’s share of gate receipts. Behold Table 3! Toronto’s share of gate receipts was $48.2 million, comprised of the 20 percent share (50% of 40% or $18.2 million, the sum of Rows A) of gate receipts that were also allocated to the Players’ Pool, and the half-share (50% of 100% or $30.0 million, the sum of Rows B) of the gate receipts distributable to the two teams. Lastly, the fee due to the Commissioner’s Office (15% of $48.2 million or $11.3 million) is deducted, leaving Rogers with a tidy net sum of $36.9 million. In addition to the postseason gate receipts, there are other benefits to the team/Rogers that I cannot calculate. These include increased merchandise, concession, and other game-related revenues attributable to the postseason. Additionally, regular season revenue streams and ticket sales likely increased due to Toronto’s run for the American League East division title. Additionally, 2026 ticket sales should increase due to a successful 2025 regular season and playoff campaign. Lastly, Rogers owns Sportsnet, which holds the Blue Jays' television and radio rights. Although I do not have data to support this claim, Sportsnet’s television ratings, in particular, must have increased substantially, benefiting the broadcaster and, indirectly, Rogers financially. A non-financial reward of the regular season and postseason could be that free agents are viewing the Blue Jays more favourably as a destination. Toronto’s extended playoff run, together with the enthusiastic nationwide fan support during the regular season and playoffs, should make the Blue Jays more attractive. Indeed, money is a significant factor for free agents, but players may view a team that projects to be a well-supported, successful franchise in 2026 more positively. The Last Word For the Toronto Blue Jays and their fans, the 2025 postseason did not culminate in a World Series championship. However, the players and the owner benefited financially from the playoff journey. The players and other employees will participate in their $30.8 million share of the players’ pool. The team/Rogers benefited from an estimated $36.9 million net share of 2025 postseason gate receipts. Other benefits to the team/owner include increased merchandise, concession, and other game-day-related revenue streams. May 2026 bring a World Series championship to the Blue Jays and their fans, as well as more financial benefits from another long postseason journey. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox improved their offense just prior to Christmas, as they completed their fourth major trade of the offseason and second with the St. Louis Cardinals. The move, which brought over slugging first baseman Willson Contreras and $8 million in cash, saw the Red Sox send back three young and exciting pitchers. The headliner of the trade was fan-favorite Hunter Dobbins who made his major-league debut for the Red Sox in 2025. The right-hander provided valuable depth for the organization as he traveled up and down the Mass Pike throughout the season. Dobbins quickly endeared himself to the team thanks to his quality pitching, along with his immediate dislike of the Yankees, going as far to say that if only the Yankees offered him a contract, he would rather retire from the sport. Overall, Dobbins pitched in 13 games with Boston, making 11 starts. He would go on to finish the year with a 4-1 record while striking out 45 batters across 61 innings. Despite being a rookie, Dobbins anchored the back end of the rotation while the Sox battled injuries and inconsistency. While the month of May yielded some growing pains for Dobbins (16 earned runs over 28 1/3 innings), he turned a corner when it was needed; in June, he allowed just eight earned runs across 20 innings pitched, including a huge six inning, scoreless appearance against the New York Yankees on Father’s Day weekend. As a pitcher, Dobbins incorporates six pitches, using his fastball most often. While the right-hander was around average in chase rate (28.1%), his whiff rate and strikeout rate were both near the bottom of the league (21.9% and 17.6%, respectively). However, he managed to stay out of a lot of trouble thanks to an amazingly low walk rate (6.6%) and an ability to keep the ball on the ground at nearly a 50% rate. Dobbins’ season ended prematurely in July when he tore his ACL in his right knee during a start in July against the Tampa Bay Rays while covering first base. Dobbins was already down at Fort Myers earlier this offseason and had shown he was playing catch at the complex. His goal is to be ready for the start of the season — if he is, could crack the Opening Day rotation for the Cardinals. Also joining Dobbins on their way to St. Louis are two interesting minor-league pitchers in right-handers Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita. Fajardo came to the Red Sox as the return from the trade that sent left-hander Cam Booser to the Chicago White Sox. Fajardo, while young, was a quick riser on Red Sox prospect lists. He opened the season allowing just one run in 20 2/3 innings in the Florida Complex League. Then, he would go on to finish the campaign starting 13 games for Single-A Salem, tossing 51 1/3 innings and striking out 59 batters. Fajardo still has some projection to grow, especially in his upper body. He relies on three pitches, a fastball that tops out at 97 mph, a slider that flashes bat-missing potential and a changeup that already shows good movement and occasional bat-missing ability. He also has a two-seam fastball he sometimes uses that has arm-side run and sink. Aita, on the other hand, was drafted in the sixth round of the 2024 Draft out of Kennesaw State. The right-hander pitched well in his first taste of professional baseball in 2025, making 23 appearances between Single-A Salem and High-A Greenville. Overall, he would go on to finish with a 5-7 record and a 3.98 ERA across 115 1/3 innings pitched. Aita showed better improvement upon reaching Greenville, pitching 64 1/3 innings while recording a 3.78 ERA, compared to just 51 innings and a 4.24 ERA with Salem. The right-hander throws a fastball, sweeper, cutter, and changeup, and all look to be at least average at this point. Aita took to the Red Sox pitching program well, as his fastball (which sat around 89-92 mph in college) averaged around 92-95 mph across the season. The fastball, along with his sweeper and cutter, also generated high spin rates. His sweeper alone reached over 3200 RPMs during the season and showcased strong bat-missing potential. While the Red Sox managed to bring in a much-needed offensive improvement, it was not without a big sacrifice. Thankfully, the Red Sox under Craig Breslow have overhauled their pitching development so that moves like this don’t hurt as much as they did in the past. The trade overall seems like a win for both sides, as the Red Sox got their offensive addition while Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals got younger and brought in interesting pitching prospects that should help accelerate their young rebuild. View the full article

It looked like Michael King would not be heading back to San Diego as recently as a few days ago, when it was reported his market was down to Baltimore, New York, and Boston. But something changed, because King is back in town on a three-year, $75 million deal. The Padres got their ace back, and the rotation now looks something like this: Michael King, Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears. For the first time this offseason, there are five starters who the team probably feels okay with in the rotation, and there's still the option of moving Mason Miller into the rotation as well. While this could be the final rotation going into 2026, there's now a higher possibility than before that we could see one of the Padres starters dealt this winter. That is Nick Pivetta, whose name has been thrown around in trade talks for a few weeks now. Obviously, shopping a guy like Pivetta would be risky, but it makes sense to think about the big picture. If Pivetta puts together another ace-level performance in 2026, he will very likely opt out after the season and sign a big contract, probably with another team. If he struggles in 2026 and turns out to be a one-year wonder, the Padres missed their chance to sell high on an average starter. The one big reason to hold on to Pivetta was the fear that a Pivetta trade would leave San Diego without any ace pitchers atop the rotation. Now that King is back, that's no longer the case. Especially if the team is considering moving Miller into the rotation, Pivetta would be their best trade asset. After all, it's no secret the Padres have a lot of needs. Most of those needs have been covered up in the past few seasons by their superstars. Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, King, Pivetta, and an elite bullpen have managed to cover up a lot of the Padres' holes, but that won't last forever. The team has very little depth, especially in the outfield and the pitching staff. The Padres' farm system is among the weakest in the league, with Ethan Salas as their only top 100 prospect. If Pivetta were to be traded this offseason, he’d likely fetch significant value. The Padres might be able to land a top-100 prospect, in addition to a package of depth pieces and other prospects, if they decide to trade Pivetta. His stock is higher than it probably will ever be, especially if teams see him as a multi-year addition. Small-market teams probably would be shy to trade for Pivetta because of the opt-out, but a team like Los Angeles, New York, or Chicago would easily be able to extend Pivetta or re-sign him if he opts out. Losing their No. 2 starter would still weaken the Padres' rotation, but not as much as it would have weakened them before they brought back Michael King. Knowing AJ Preller, he will not be afraid to make whatever move he feels brings the Padres closest to a championship. If he feels keeping Pivetta gives them the best opportunity to win the World Series, he would not trade him, even with his value at an all-time high. But Preller has shown that for the right price, he’ll make almost any trade. If he feels it will improve the roster or the farm system, Pivetta could be out the door. And now that King is back at the top of the rotation, the Padres might just be okay without Pivetta in 2026. View the full article

Miami Marlins right-handed reliever Ronny Henriquez will miss the entire 2026 season after undergoing right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace. MLB.com's Christina De Nicola was the first to report the news Monday night and the club later followed with official confirmation. Dr. Keith Meister performed the procedure—that's the same surgeon who worked with fellow Marlins Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez when they required UCL reconstruction. Henriquez, 25, was claimed off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on February 11 and made the Opening Day roster out of spring training. In 69 appearances (73.0 IP), he posted a 2.22 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 12.08 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and notched seven saves. His 98 strikeouts tied Edwin Díaz for second-most among National League relievers last year. He didn't spend any time on the injured list. In 2025, the Marlins ranked 26th amongst MLB bullpens in fWAR and 22nd in bullpen ERA. Before the loss of Henriquez, the Marlins had been in pursuit of veteran relievers this offseason. They are now even more desperate for outside help. Original top targets such as Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and Kyle Finnegan are now off the market after receiving multi-year deals. Miami remains very interested in Pete Fairbanks, who may be the best option in free agency willing to take a one-year deal. Current in-house candidates to enter games in high-leverage situations include Calvin Faucher, who led the team last year with 15 saves, Anthony Bender and Tyler Phillips. Also, Lake Bachar and left-hander Cade Gibson were on the active roster for most of the year. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs have agreed to a split-level contract with free agent catcher Christian Bethancourt, which would pay the player $1,600,000 if he is on the major league roster. The catcher spent his most recent season in the Toronto Blue Jays' system, appearing in 58 games with their Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons, where he struggled with a 42 wRC+. Despite his struggles in 2025, Bethancourt had a successful stint with the Chicago Cubs the year prior, after being acquired from the Miami Marlins. He would go on to post a .281/.305/.509 line, smashing three home runs and finishing with a 125 wRC+ in 59 plate appearances. Bethancourt is not being signed with an eye toward starting with the major league club, as the team projects to have Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya (as he returns from injury) man the backstop. However, as we saw with Amaya last year, you can never count out a rash of injuries at the position, which will strengthen the organization's depth there. This contract will allow the Cubs to stash their new signing in Iowa and have him serve as a "break glass in case of emergency" type of player. It's true that the club also has top prospect Moises Ballesteros available at the position, but he's still a work-in-progress defensively. He may be able to make a lot of strides over the winter, or he may still need work. With as many as 40-man spots on the team, they can afford this kind of luxury, having a few different options to choose from. If everything goes to plan, you'd hope you'll never need him, but having someone capable of playing the position is always important, as the team has learned in previous seasons. What do you think of Christian Bethancourt? Do you think he's a good addition as a third- or fourth-option at the position organizationally? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

With baseball free agency contracts soaring across the league, finding and developing hidden gems is critical for teams that are unable or unwilling to spend big in free agency. In order to compete with organizations such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies, teams need to hit on late-round picks that have tools and physical traits that can develop over time to become MLB regulars. One under-the-radar Cubs prospect worth keeping tabs on is 2024 11th-round draft pick (pick #332 overall), Eli Lovich. He is a 20-year-old outfield prospect with a large frame, 6’4”, 185 pounds. With Pete Crow-Armstrong manning center field for the foreseeable future, he could fit nicely in a corner outfield position due to his strong arm and above-average speed. He has the body type to add strength as he continues to mature, which would make 20 home runs per year a realistic target. Lovich will likely require multiple years in the minors before becoming a threat to crack the majors. That timeline suits the Cubs' current situation: Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki both open the 2026 season at 31 years old, and a couple of the top outfield prospects in the organization (Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara) are closer to getting more opportunities on the field in the near future. Lovich appeared to be headed to the University of Arkansas before the Cubs selected him with the 332nd pick of the 2024 draft and shortly thereafter assigned him to the ACL Cubs on August 15, 2024, before being assigned to Myrtle Beach on June 10th, 2025. The stats do not jump off the page from his first 73 minor league games (.232 avg, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 18 SB), but that was to be expected for a young prospect that will need time. That is why following his journey over the next few seasons will be very intriguing for the Cubs’ 29th-ranked prospect (according to MLB Pipeline). If things go right for Lovich, he could provide solid depth and flexibility down the road, which will be paramount for a team that could be without Kyle Tucker (free agent) and aging mainstays, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki, by that time. View the full article

Ely Sussman explains why the recent trade of Shane Baz to the Baltimore Orioles gives us a clear idea of what Edward Cabrera is currently worth. Then, Matt Goudreau, president and general manager of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, discusses all aspects of his role with the Marlins Triple-A affiliate. You can find The Offishial Show on the Fish On First YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you get your pods. Our audio programming also includes Fish On First LIVE, Fish Unfiltered, Swimming Upstream and more. Although Cabrera's major league career has been more successful than Baz's to this point, these right-handed starters have more in common than you might realize at first glance. Both have three remaining years of club control, similar projected salaries for the 2026 season and plus fastball velocity. The quality of contact they've allowed has been comparable as well. Traditionally, a player's last season is weighted heavily when determining their current value. However, this particular MLB offseason has been rife with examples of pitchers who were coveted despite run prevention struggles. All things considered, I estimate that Cabrera's value is only 5-10% higher than Baz's. Matt Goudreau joined the Jumbo Shrimp in June 2021 as assistant general manager after stints at the University of Memphis, San Francisco 49ers, San Jose State University and Pittsburgh Pirates. Goudreau was at the forefront of the multi-year VyStar Ballpark renovations ("Project NEXT"), which included the complete remodel of both home and visiting clubhouses, new video board and ribbon boards, new right field building which includes the team’s new administrative offices, street level team store and the Right Field Hall/Power Alley, the PNC Home Plate Club, and a new main gate. Additionally, he has managed the stadium operations team, been the primary liaison to the Jumbo Shrimp coaching staff and Marlins player development department, and has also helped oversee gameday staff working events at VyStar Ballpark. Earlier this month, Goudreau was promoted to his current role. Shortly after, the Jumbo Shrimp were sold by longtime owner Ken Babby to the Prospector Baseball Group. Swim Around the Diamond At the end of every episode of The Offishial Show, I will be highlighting and recommending Marlins-related content that was posted recently outside of FOF. Here's what I picked this time: Graduates: Welcome to the big leagues (East Carolina University) Edwards' youth camp growing in size, support (MLB.com) Miami Marlins Best to Wear Jersey Number Series (Marlin Maniac) Edward Cabrera exclusive interview (El Primer Out) Follow Ely (@RealEly) and Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) on Twitter. Join the Marlins Discord server! Complete Miami Marlins coverage here at FishOnFirst.com. View the full article

While we don't know a whole lot about the reported trade talks between the San Diego Padres & the New York Mets, we at least know enough to be intrigued. Even if they've slowed at this point. For example, we know that neither of Fernando Tatis Jr. on the Padres' end nor Francisco Lindor on the Mets' side were included as part of the talks. We also know that Mason Miller's name emerged as part of the discussion. At this point, that's kind of all we know. But that leaves a whole lot of wiggle room for speculation. Let's talk about the things we do know first. It's not a surprise that neither of the team's respective stars are a part of the discussion. A.J. Preller has come as close as possible to declaring Fernando Tatis Jr. untouchable without saying the literal phrase while the team is also unlikely to be willing to take on another long-term contract for a position player. Despite Lindor's continued status as one of the game's top shortstops — he still posted a 6.3 fWAR in 2025 even with a slight power dip — he's a 32-year-old under contract through 2031. Preller is more compelled to get money off the books for the long-term, rather than add to it. Miller's inclusion in talks is, somewhat paradoxically, also not a surprise. Despite the fact that the team only acquired him in July for a package that included top prospect Leo De Vries, trading from the bullpen represents perhaps the best opportunity for the Padres to make improvements to their roster in areas that are not as fortified. As for the still-known-but-less-tangible components of the two matching up on a potential deal, we know the Padres are seeking starting pitching, even following the re-signing of Michael King. The Mets have some depth there and some intriguing names in the upper levels of their system. On their side of things, they're looking to supplement their offense upon Pete Alonso's departure while also adding to their relief corps after Edwin Díaz left for the Los Angeles Dodgers. While it's difficult to see the Padres moving Miller for anything resembling less than a similar haul to the one they gave up, the idea that his name is part of the discussion at least lends itself to a larger one that any move between the two teams would include a reliever of significance (of which the Padres have many). So, it makes sense that either team would find some solace in the other as far as trade partners go. For Preller, though, the Mets may represent the most ideal trade partner he could find this offseason. The Padres and their rotation represent perhaps as obvious a need as exists for any club across the major league landscape. With only Nick Pivetta (and King) set to serve as an established starter, there's an urgency for Preller to solidify the group. If he can do so while also threading the needle of the holy grail of trade acquisitions (controllable starting pitching), the Mets can offer him exactly what he wants. The Mets have already said that Nolan McLean represents an untouchable quantity from their farm system. He's the No. 11 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline, and should factor heavily in their rotation in 2026. Fortunately for the Padres, he's not the only prospective starter near the top of their farm that's slotted into the league's top 100 prospects. Jonah Tong is a name you'll likely hear a lot if trade talks between the two sides continue. His Pipeline writeup states the following: The profile goes on to note his rising walk rate but also communicates the idea that he could be part of a rotation in 2026. Tong's combination of stuff, deception, and fact that he's only 22 represent a tantalizing combination for an organization like San Diego. And he's not the only one. Brandon Sproat no longer qualifies as a prospect, but his 2024 profile notes the following: Velocity, interesting secondary pitches, and 25 years old? That all tracks as something the Padres certainly desire. Either of Tong or Sproat would be a massive addition to the Padres not only for 2026 but moving forward. It remains to be seen if they'd have to part with an arm like Miller to get a prospect with Tong-like pedigree, but it's not as if he's the only reliever with tremendous upside in the bullpen. It's also not as if Tong and Sproat are the only intriguing names within the Mets' organization, either. We previously discussed the idea of a Kodai Senga trade on the San Diego side of things. While far from a sure thing given his injury history, he'd certainly offer upside at what would likely be perceived as a lower cost than either of Tong or Sproat. There are also reports that the Mets are willing to part with David Peterson, who is coming off a career-high 30 starts in 2025. He's more of an unexciting vintage among the options, but would offer some stability for a rotation that currently lacks it. There are obviously plenty of nuances to any arm that the Padres could acquire from the Mets, to say nothing of any deal at large. But with New York having a blend of established big-league arms and high-upside prospects which would slot well into a rotation starved for innings, the long and short of the discussion is that they represent the most ideal trade partner for A.J. Preller. While we'll likely hear of others in the coming weeks, the dialogue with the Mets should continue for that reason alone. View the full article

It feels, looking back, like Pablo López missed practically the whole 2025 season. He was sidelined for the key stretch in which the Twins flopped out of contention and sold off the roster for parts, and with the much shorter stints he spent on the injured list early and late in the campaign, it's hard to remember the times when he was actually available. Somehow, though, he made 14 starts on the year, and he posted a stellar 2.74 ERA. Since the Twins' plan for 2026 appears to be giving it one more try with their familiar core, it will be important that López be similarly excellent (and a bit more sturdy) next season. Few players are more reliable or conscientious, though, and even fewer are more creative, so López is as good a candidate to have a great year as anyone in the projected starting rotation. He even added an interesting and valuable pitch to his mix this season: the kick-change. López was thoughtful and cautious with his implementation of that new flavor of changeup. It's a pitch that utilizes an altered grip to change the spin axis out of the hand, without a significant change in the way one manipulates the hand or forearm at release, and for López, it was extremely effective. In fact, there's significant evidence that it's better than his usual changeup. According to Baseball Prospectus's StuffPro and PitchPro, López's original changeup is an average pitch, but the kick-change is a potential dominator. It's 0.6 and 1.4 runs better than the standard change per 100 pitches thrown by those two models, respectively, which is a huge margin. That invites the question: Should López lean more into that offering (and away from the changeup he's been throwing instead) in 2026? To answer that question, let's consider the shape and the characteristics of the two distinct cambios. Prospectus shows many of those numbers distinctly, because their pitch classification system can distinguish the regular change from the kick-change, but we can find more of it by teasing out which is which even on Baseball Savant—where all of these pitches are lumped under one 'changeup' pitch type. Here's a chart showing López's horizontal and vertical movement on all his changeups, via Savant, colored by spin rate. As you might guess, the old, reliable changeup is the cluster of gray and reddish dots on the upper right. The kick change, by contrast, lives in blue. The intruding middle finger, which delivers that kick to change the spin axis for the kick-change, also kills some spin, which results in more depth on the pitch but less command. Note how much tighter the cluster of movement coordinates is for the old changeup than for the new one. The dividing line for the two pitches turns out to be right around 1,800 RPM. Draw a line there, and you can get Statcast to show you (more or less) the vitals on the two different pitches living under one umbrella. Spin Rate % of Changeups MPH Hor. Mvmt. IVB Arm Angle EV LA Zone Rate Whiff Rate xwOBA Under 1,800 (CK) 36.7 87.6 12.2 -0.3 36.5° 87 8 30.6 33.3 .183 1800+ (CH) 63.7 87.2 16.5 4.3 34.8° 86 15 40.6 24.4 .405 It's not quite as stark a situation as what we see here, because while we have almost exactly the right number of pitches in each bin (comparing the breakdown we roughed out with the count of each type of change on López's Prospectus player card), a few of the wrong ones are in each. His highest-spin kick-changes are likely to be his least effective; his lowest-spin standard changeups are likely to be the most effective. Thus, the expected weighted on-base average for the two pitches isn't actually as different as that table would imply. Still, there's a huge difference here. Notice that the kick-change has considerably less arm-side run, but (by the same amount) more vertical depth. That's why it gets more whiffs and (as implied by the much lower average launch angle) more ground balls. However, you can see why López has been a little bit reluctant to push the pedal down and make the change from one flavor of changeup to the other: it's that zone rate. Less spin and more movement make it hard for López (or anyone else) to land the kick-change in the zone with any consistency. That's a big part of why he stuck with the standard changeup almost two-thirds of the time, when he went to an offspeed pitch. Those same characteristics are also why the kick-change earns more whiffs, though. If he can consistently induce batters to chase outside the zone, then the inability to fill up the zone with the pitch will turn from a lurking weakness to a major strength. Prospectus also offers estimates of the opposing batter's ability to identify a pitch out of the pitcher's hand, based on release point, initial trajectory and other factors, and introducing the kick-change did wonders for López in terms of introducing deception and uncertainty for hitters. The kick-change gets mistaken for his sweeper a plurality of the time against righties, and for his regular changeup equally often against lefties. He matches his arm angle fairly well on both changeups, trusting the grip to do the work of steering them differently. Having both appears to beat leaning into only one, although over a larger sample, that could turn out differently. The question isn't really whether the kick-change should replace the old changeup, then, but whether it might be wisest to reverse the share of his total offspeed portfolio made up by each. Should López throw the kick-change twice as often as the regular change, because it's much more likely to draw whiffs and is a better overall pitch, based on shape and deception? Or would that lead to overexposure, and put him behind in too many counts? López implemented the pitch slowly and carefully, knowing these questions are hard to answer without experimentation—but unwilling to experiment at the cost of his teammates' chance to win on a given day. As he works this winter and goes to spring training, though, it'll be interesting to see whether the kick-change gets greater market share in López's offspeed attack in 2026. It probably should, but for that to work, he has to get the balance between inducing whiffs and letting hitters gain count leverage exactly right. View the full article

As Alex Gordon started to amass Gold Gloves in left field, my brother and I briefly took pitching lessons from his younger brother, Derek. The elder Gordon is known for his muscle-bound frame, while Derek is a lanky 6’6”, a perfect build for a pitcher. Derek put up decent numbers over two minor league seasons, while Alex is a new addition to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. In this series at Royals Keep, I’m looking back on Royals history from this century, the good and the bad, through the lens of memorabilia. As far as I can tell, the Royals have given away six Alex Gordon bobbleheads, plus a Gold Glove replica. He’s been a Star Wars Jedi and immortalized in his pose rounding the bases after his dramatic 2015 World Series Game 1 homer, but his first bobblehead from 2008 is what I’ll focus on here. 2008 was Gordon’s age-24 season, his second in a Royals uniform. He was still a third baseman at the time. I found this blog post announcing a sweepstakes related to this June 21, 2008, giveaway, which points out the Royals hadn’t given away a bobblehead of a current player in several seasons. In fact, the last current player bobblehead before this one was Mike Sweeney, all the way back in April 2003. Such was the state of the Royals from 2003 to 2008. Missed opportunity for a Ken Harvey tarp bobblehead, I guess! Shoutout to 2004 All-Star Ken Harvey. Ken Harvey and Alex Gordon are both Nebraska Cornhuskers, as a matter of fact. The Royals really leaned into the Nebraska of it all with the 2008 bobblehead design. The bobbling Gordon leans against the knob of his bat and holds a baseball. At his feet is a basket filled with baseballs and corn. What could be more Nebraskan than that? The Royals defeated the Giants 5-3 on the night of this bobblehead giveaway. Alex Gordon walked three times! While the Royals gave away a bobblehead in 2021 showing Gordo with his Gold Gloves, they never made a bobblehead showing him making an acrobatic catch or an accurate throw from the outfield. To me, the quintessential Gordon catch involved him racing in towards the infield and making a diving catch angling towards the foul line. A missed opportunity, perhaps, to honor the eight-time Gold Glover. It’s hard to analyze and compare prospect hype, but before the Royals had the #1 farm system in baseball that produced the likes of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, the organization had Alex Gordon (and Billy Butler). Gordon was seen by some as the second coming of George Brett. As was recently circulated, one of the Gordon brothers is named Brett, as are so many midwestern boys, in honor of the only Baseball Hall of Famer wearing a Kansas City Royals cap. While Alex Gordon’s career doesn’t quite reach the statistical markers of the Baseball Hall of Fame, he was inducted this summer into the Royals Hall of Fame. That led to another bobblehead! Besides the suspense of learning who will be inducted into Cooperstown, I always enjoy examining the bottom of the ballot results to see who received a handful of votes. Former Royals to get at least one Hall of Fame vote in the last decade include Raúl Ibañez, Johnny Damon, Jason Kendall, and Mike Sweeney. I’ll be rooting for Gordo to join this list when the results are announced on January 20. View the full article