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At this point, it seems like just a matter of time until the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals come to an agreement on a deal headlined by outfielder Jarren Duran. And the latest update on the saga, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Kansas City Royals are still interested in Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran … if they lower the asking price. Rosenthal goes on to say, "The Royals are under the impression Duran would cost them left-hander Cole Ragans, though the Red Sox view the initial talks as more informal and exploratory." The inclusion of Ragans seems to be what is holding up the two sides from coming to an agreement. While both players are controllable through 2028, Ragans is considerably cheaper and is at a more premium position. Additionally, Rosenthal shares that the Royals generally believe he is more valuable… a game one starter in a hypothetical postseason game. Our sister site, Royals Keep, shared potential matchups in a trade for Jarren Duran, Click here to read our in-depth piece on scenarios. Do you think the Red Sox should drop their asking price to move Duran? Or up the offer to ensure they land Ragans? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The San Diego Padres have clear areas of need to address this winter. They need additional power in their lineup. They need some additional depth on the bench. And above all, they need starting pitching. There's just one issue with a team like the Padres in possession of such obvious needs: they lack the resources to properly address them. Just about everywhere in the baseball world will tell you that the Padres currently sit at the bottom of any farm system ranking. That's regardless of publication. It's a standing wrought by A.J. Preller's years of aggression on the trade front, depleting not only the upper tier of prospects with which he can make notable trades but the depth as well. It's why we saw the type of trades we did at the deadline, when Preller had to send a high volume of prospects (six of them) to Baltimore in order to acquire Ryan O'Hearn and Ramón Laureano. Furthering the Padres' offseason issues is their uncertain financial future. We've known for the last handful of years that the organization was trying to rein in spending. But with ownership reportedly exploring a sale of the franchise, it stands to reason that it'll only get worse in the weeks ahead (despite the thought that they might hang around last year's figure). The compounding of those two ideas has led to very little optimism over the Padres properly addressing the apparent needs that they have on the current roster. Which is why Preller might have to get a little bit creative in doing so. Unfortunately for him, such creativity may mean depleting the roster's largest area of strength. No team in baseball was able to get as much out of their relief corps as the Padres in 2025. Their 7.6 collective fWAR paced all bullpens, along with their 3.06 collective ERA. Their 3.53 FIP trailed only Cleveland with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate that sat third among their comrades in relief. They were also a group adept at avoiding hard contact, with a Hard-Hit% that was behind only Cincinnati for the lowest in the sport (37.4 percent). And while the group lost closer Robert Suárez to free agency (via his opt-out), the fact that three or four names could handle ninth inning duty in his stead speaks to the depth of this group. Any of Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada are capable of leverage innings. Jason Adam, too, once he returns from a ruptured quad. David Morgan showed that he's the next guy up for such a role, as well. That's five guys for essentially three innings of work. We're oversimplifying, of course, as matchups and injuries exist. But when you factor in Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez, and new Padre Daison Acosta, there's a certain level of volume that exists here. Who's to say that Ruben Niebla and the pitching infrastructure couldn't work their magic in developing additional leverage arms on top of the five already on the roster? Regardless of the intricacies of the roster itself — and the makeup of the fortunate position the Padres are in with respect to their bullpen setup — it stands to reason that Preller should utilize such volume in order to add to the starting rotation. If he does, it's not as if every one of the five leverage arms would be available. We have to imagine Mason Miller is out, despite recent reports suggesting otherwise. With plenty of ninth-inning experience already to his credit, he's the most obvious name to assume Suárez's role as the team's closer. Even without that experience, that the team just gave up their top prospect in July as part of the package to acquire him makes it even less likely. As the lone lefty of the group, Morejon is also likely to be around for 2026 as well. Left-handed pitchers with upper 90s fastballs don't grow on trees, and Morejon's 97.7 MPH average sat in the 94th percentile last year. While he doesn't deploy his fastball-slider combo in a way that generates strikeouts in the way one might expect, he was in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity against (85.9 MPH) and in the 99th in Hard-Hit% (30.7). He appears destined for eighth-inning work in 2026. David Morgan is still pre-arbitration. Given the Padres' financial circumstances, that flexibility against the payroll will prove important from a player that can give you leverage innings. To say nothing of how his limited experience (47 1/3 major-league innings) would lead to a smaller return that becomes more difficult to justify. Adam can likely be eliminated as a part of this discussion as well considering the severity of his injury. While he should be back on the mound in early 2026, the quad is likely to pin down his value on the trade market. Which leaves Jeremiah Estrada as the most apparent trade candidate should Preller pursue this avenue. Estrada is exactly the type of high-upside reliever teams want for the late innings. He offers a 94th-percentile fastball (97.9 MPH average) and 98th percentile strikeout stuff (35.5 K%) wrought by a combination of that fastball, a changeup-splitter hybrid, and a slider. He's not entirely skilled at limiting hard contact, but that becomes less of an issue when you're missing as many bats as he does. His .247 wOBA against in high leverage was also his best figure among all leverage situations. In San Diego, Estrada is likely slated for the seventh inning. For another club that doesn't have this type of depth, he could serve as a primary setup option in the eighth or even as a closer. For the Padres, a combination of Morgan and Adam then slide into seventh-inning duty while the collection of Matsui, Peralta, et al handle the middle innings. It's a trade that Preller can afford to make on paper. Especially if it allows the organization to address their lack of pitching on the starting side. Whether or not Preller will utilize someone like Estrada to address the need, however, remains to be seen. Pitching in any form is the most coveted element for any big league organization, and it's a tough sell to deal from it when you're a contending club. Even if the cupboard is this barren from a starting pitching standpoint. There's an argument to be made that the Padres could be an exception considering their volume and their infrastructure, but you'd have to receive a certified part of your rotation in the return. Even with Estrada's upside, there's no guarantee you're getting that back. It's a perilous situation to navigate, the absence of meaningful starting pitching. But perilous circumstances aren't terribly new to the Preller or the Padres. Should he make a move, it's easy to imagine Estrada's the guy throwing baseballs for a different team next year. But you can never be sure of anything with Preller. View the full article

While there are not many pitchers ranked within the top five of the 2026 MLB Draft Class right now, Jamie and Jeremy review those with high upside that could possibly be picked by the Twins third overall in the 2026 MLB Draft.View the full article

The Twins and slugger Josh Bell agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027, sources confirmed to Twins Daily Monday morning. The first report of the deal came from ESPN's Jeff Passan, on Twitter. Bell, 33, is a 10-year veteran. A switch-hitter, he can serve as both a first baseman and a DH for the offense-hungry Twins. Last season, Bell hit .237/.325/.417 for a moribund Nationals team, with 22 home runs in 533 plate appearances. He was a prized selection in the 2011 MLB Draft, but his career has been more peripatetic than expected. A hulking figure in the batter's box, he's nonetheless struggled to consistently generate high-level power. He's a fine (but not spectacular) defender at first base, but most of his value comes from his bat. Bell controls the strike zone well, makes more frequent contact than most hitters of his size and strength, and has the ability to hit the ball exceptionally hard. For most of his career, the limiting factor has been a tendency to hit too many ground balls. While Bell's raw numbers for 2025 might appear underwhelming, though, there was a material change this season. From each side of the plate, he increased his bat speed by roughly 2.5 miles per hour and moved his exceptionally deep contact point a bit farther in front of his frame. Those changes make it easier to project strong production from him in 2026, as long as he can maintain those gains for the Twins. View the full article

Despite having five starters penciled into the rotation for 2026, the Milwaukee Brewers could get creative with a newly acquired reliever. At the very least, it sounds like the fifth rotation spot could be up for grabs throughout spring training. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that the Milwaukee Brewers could use recently acquired Angel Zerpa as a starter. In his article, Brewers president of baseball operations, Matt Arnold, was quoted as saying, "We have some scouts that think he can do it. He has done it in the past." Zerpa, recently acquired via a trade with the Kansas City Royals, progressed through the minor leagues primarily as a reliever, though in five seasons with the Royals only made eight starts. In 2025, Zerpa pitched 64 2/3 innings, posting a solid 3.86 FIP despite a low 13.1% K-BB rate, due to an elevated walk rate. As a southpaw, he's particularly effective against left-handed hitters who carried a .288 wOBA last season, whereas righties had a .360 wOBA. For more on Zerpa's arsenal and development, check out Jack Stern's dive into his repertoire. Zerpa, 26, just entered his first year of arbitration and is controllable through 2028. Do you think the Brewers should test him in the starting rotation or leave him in the bullpen? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

On December 8th, the Royals announced voting would open for the Royals Hall of Fame Class of 2026. This vote determines who will be inducted into the team's illustrious Hall of Fame, located at Kauffman Stadium. Last year, Alex Gordon became the latest member inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame. Gordon was the first player from the 2014-2015 squads to be voted in (manager Ned Yost was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2023). This year, there are nine players on the Hall of Fame ballot, including two former Royals who are on the ballot for the first time. Here are the players Royals fans can vote for this year: Lorenzo Cain, OF (first-time) Alcides Escobar, SS (first-time) Greg Holland, RHP Wade Davis, RHP Kelvin Herrera, RHP Billy Butler, DH/1B Carlos Beltran, OF Joakim Soria, RHP Yordano Ventura, RHP In this post, members of the Royals Keep staff, including myself, Philip Ruo, Kerry Flanagan, and Carter Lundberg, shared our ballots and why we made our selections. Fans can make their own selections at this link. For a Royals alumnus to be elected (or stay on the ballot), they have to accomplish the following criteria, which are listed on the Royals Hall of Fame ballot: Thus, let's take a look at our votes and our analysis for each player we voted for, organized by player and the number of votes they received from the Royals Keep staff. © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Lorenzo Cain, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Carlos Beltran, OF (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Peter G. Aiken-Imagn Images Yordano Ventura, RHP (Four Votes) Kevin Philip Kerry Carter © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Greg Holland, RHP (Three Votes) Kevin Philip Carter © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Joakim Soria, RHP (Two Votes) Kevin Kerry © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Alcides Escobar, SS (One Vote) Kerry View the full article

The Twins seem to be intent on trying to win in 2026 versus leaning further into a rebuild and kicking the competitive can down the road. There are good arguments against this course of action, but one of the best in its favor is the presence of Royce Lewis. The former #1 overall pick is 26 years old, in the heart of his prime window, and under team control for three more years. In the past he has looked like a worthy centerpiece for a championship-contending club. Not so much lately. But that ability is in there, and unlocking it again seems to be a guiding focus for the Twins. Making the managerial switch from Rocco Baldelli to his stylistically-similar former bench coach Derek Shelton was driven by a desire to bring in a fresh voice — for the team and, quite specifically I think, for Lewis. It's no coincidence that Shelton went out of his way to visit the third baseman in Texas shortly after being hired. Here, Shelton is taking a page straight out of his predecessor's playbook. When he was first hired back in 2018, Baldelli made personal trips to visit Miguel Sanó in the Dominican Republic and Byron Buxton in Georgia, seeking to build initial rapport with players that he knew would be instrumental to the team's (and thus his) success. At the time, circumstances were somewhat similar. The Twins were coming off a disappointing season, which was a nightmare for both of the ascending young stars and former top prospects. Buxton, 24, was besieged by injuries and played horribly when on the field (.383 OPS in 94 PA). Sanó, 25, struggled so much that he was demoted from the majors to Single-A in the middle of the season for a reset. Fans were questioning whether these highly-touted talents were the real deal. Great examples of the nonlinear path that baseball development often takes. The 2018 seasons of Sanó and Buxton are stark reminders of why no one should be giving up on Lewis after a tumultuous run in his mid-20s. In 2019, Baldelli's first venture as manager, both rebounded as key contributors in a 101-win campaign, and while Sanó has since fallen off, Buxton channeled that breakthrough into becoming a true upper-echelon big-leaguer. The Twins are surely hoping for something similar to transpire in the coming year. Lewis has the talent to help spearhead a turnaround. We've seen what he's capable of on the biggest stage. The front office seems to be doing everything in its power to placate him and rebuild his shattered confidence. Lewis complained in 2024 about highly-paid veterans being held to a different standard. One year later, Carlos Correa was gone. More recently Lewis has made comments about not feeling valued or important in the clubhouse. And now Baldelli is gone, replaced by a manager who made a point of immediately visiting Lewis with a message of support and belief. There will be other fresh voices in Lewis's ear as well. A new hitting coach in Keith Beauregard who's helped other stalling top prospects (e.g. Spencer Torkelson) get over the hump in Detroit. A new bench coach in Mark Hallberg who brings unique perspective from his fascinating background. And a familiar face on the coaching staff in Toby Gardenhire, who managed Lewis in the minors. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2026, rebooting Royce Lewis is priority number one. The roster, the coaching overhaul, and even the managerial hire all point to an organization betting that Lewis’s best version is still ahead of him, not behind. It's a bet they almost have to make, given his lack of trade value. Development is rarely linear, and the Twins have already lived through what a well-timed reset can unlock. Whether this approach ultimately works will define the next phase of the franchise, but one thing is clear: everything the Twins are doing right now flows through Royce Lewis. If he reawakens, so do they View the full article

As the 2025 MLB Winter Meetings came and went, the Chicago Cubs largely sat idly. In fairness, so did many of their competitors; there was limited action at the league's annual hot stove festival. The Cubs signed two relievers: reclamation project Collin Snider (on a minor-league deal), and Hoby Milner, a soft-tossing lefty with a funky delivery and familiarity with Craig Counsell. Other teams were busier, though. Most of the top free-agent relievers have signed elsewhere. The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias and lured in ex-Padres closer Robert Suarez. The Dodgers and Mets gave three-year deals to Edwin Díaz and Devin Williams, respectively; the Blue Jays gave a slightly less lucrative one to Tyler Rogers. Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen signed with the Tigers. Ryan Helsley went to the Orioles on a two-year deal, which he can renounce after 2026 if he sees a chance to make more money elsewhere. Emilio Pagán went back to the Reds on a two-year deal worth $20 million. The Cubs have signed righty setup man Phil Maton, in addition to Snider and Milner, but some of those players signing elsewhere stung. Helsley would have been a great fit. Williams made sense, as well, and it was reported that he was interested in reuniting with Counsell. Suarez was a fit, and the Cubs were allegedly kicking the tires on him, but the kick must not have inspired much confidence in his ability to hold up. Díaz, Helsley, Williams, and Suarez were considered the elite relief options on the free-agent market. It's no surprise, though, that the Cubs weren't willing to offer up the deals any of them ultimately secured. That's not how Jed Hoyer believes in building a bullpen. In each of the last few years, though, Hoyer has found bargains once the initial surge of relief signings has softened the demand for players and begun to pull down their price tags. Here are a few of the top relievers remaining, whom Hoyer could turn to as he tries to fill out a bullpen still rife with opportunity. Brad Keller A longtime starter, Keller reinvented himself as a high-leverage reliever for the 2025 Cubs. The initial engagement between player and team worked gorgeously; why should Keller risk going somewhere else? In 69 2/3 innings this season, Keller had a 2.07 ERA, a WHIP of 0.96, and 75 strikeouts, and even filled the closer role late in the season. His fastball averaged 97 mph, trailing only Daniel Palencia among Cubs hurlers. There is little reason to believe this was a fluke, and the Cubs should have the inside track on signing him. He's likely to command a multi-year deal worth at least $10 million per year, though. Taylor Rogers Sticking with the theme of familiar faces, Rogers has a potential role with the team in 2026, even with the signing of Milner, who has a similar profile. Outside of Milner, the only left-handed relief options on the roster are Luke Little, Jordan Wicks, and rookie Riley Martin. Ideally, there would be another hard thrower added to the bunch, but Rogers would serve as much-needed depth. Though he had an unimpressive 5.02 ERA after being traded to the Cubs, Rogers had a 3.32 ERA across his 50 2/3 total innings in 2025. He should be willing to sign a cheap one-year contract this offseason. Pete Fairbanks Fairbanks is arguably the most exciting option left on the relief market. He served as the Rays' closer for the last three seasons, and collected 75 saves over that span. In 2025, Fairbanks had a 2.83 ERA, 59 strikeouts to 18 walks, and 27 saves in 60 1/3 innings. If the Cubs sign Fairbanks, he would immediately become the most accomplished closer on the roster. Fairbanks will be 32 before Opening Day and is coming off his first fully healthy season since 2020. From 2021-2024, he dealt with rotator cuff, shoulder, lat and hip problems, and even a nerve issue that limited him to 156 2/3 innings during that time. While injuries will be a concern, Fairbanks's price should reflect that. A two--year deal somewhere in the same neighborhood as Pagán's will likely be what gets it done. Luke Weaver Weaver made his debut in 2016 with the Cardinals. He was one of the better starting pitching prospects in baseball at the time. After eight seasons as (mostly) a back-of-the-rotation arm, mainly with the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, he converted to relief with the Yankees in 2024. He rewarded them with a 2.89 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 84 innings. He did take a slight step back in 2025, as he posted a 3.62 ERA and was limited to mostly one-inning appearances, but that had much to do with the heavy workload he bore all the way through October the year before. The transition to the bullpen has helped Weaver improve his fastball velocity, which has lived above 95 mph since 2024. Weaver doesn’t have full seasons of closing experience like Fairbanks, but would still be an established right-handed, late-inning option in a Cubs bullpen that thins out after Palencia and Maton. Evan Phillips A key piece of the Dodgers’ bullpen from 2022-2024, Phillips was non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2025 season. Phillips will not be available for the start of 2026, but should be able to make an impact at some point. He was excellent with the Dodgers in 2022, with a 1.14 ERA and 77 strikeouts, and had another elite year in 2023 with a 2.04 ERA. At 31 years old, he should be able to regain at least some of that form. The Cubs would need to add a few more arms to make the bullpen a strength for next season, but if they do add the necessary reinforcements, Phillips can be that piece to put them over the top in October. In 15 1/3 postseason innings, he has not given up a run. There are not many arms on the market that have the same postseason experience and recent success as Phillips. The Tommy John recovery will likely limit him to a one-year deal. View the full article

The 2022-26 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires on December 1, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. For anyone unfamiliar with the sprawling 442-page contract, the CBA outlines how Major League Baseball operates. It addresses spring training allowances, revenue-sharing guidelines, minimum salaries, deferred contracts, and more. Tony Clark, the Executive Director of the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA), and MLB commissioner Robert Manfred have both indicated that they anticipate a lockout after the current CBA expires. Manfred even went as far as to state: Competitive parity in MLB and the potential implementation of a salary cap, which the MLBPA vehemently opposes, are already being discussed. Other major topics include the international draft, integrity protections with the rise of gambling, and combating service time manipulation. Manfred has been gearing up for a potential lockout. In 2023, he launched the Commissioner’s Ambassador Program (CAP) to “represent the game at MLB events and support the league's international growth, among other responsibilities”. This past season, Manfred toured MLB clubhouses, sometimes bringing CAP members. Historically, the MLBPA has been the bridge between players and the commissioner’s office. CAP however, is leapfrogging union reps and player agents to directly advise players under the guidance of the commissioner’s office, fueling further tension. *Picture of the chart taken during a recent visit to the Baseball Hall of Fame The Los Angeles Dodgers’ back-to-back World Series titles, achieved with top-three payrolls in both seasons, have intensified discussions about a salary cap. Their spending frenzy last offseason led to a record-breaking $582.25 million luxury tax payroll in 2025. While World Series runner-ups are often afterthoughts in the history books, the Dodgers’ victories came against other high-payroll teams, the New York Yankees in 2024 ($389.17 million) and the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025 ($288.60 million). For once, I agree with Bryce Harper. Whining about the Dodgers’ spending is not worth the attention. The Dodgers are a well-oiled machine. Besides consistently signing quality free agents, they have one of, if not the largest, analytics departments across all professional sports. The other 29 teams in the league could beef up their analytics staff and allocate more revenue towards their payroll, but they choose not to. Why should the Dodgers be held liable for the Pirates allocating only 32.4% ($105.67 million) of their revenue towards their payroll in 2025? It’s absolutely asinine for the rest of the league to bemoan the willingness of the Dodgers’ ownership to invest in the team and not match their moves. Every team had the financial resources to offer Shohei Ohtani a 10-year $700 million contract with its mind-boggling deferrals. Any organization could have signed Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, to a long-term deal, despite concerns about his injury history. These moves, and many more, have consistently worked in the Dodgers' favor. Luck certainly plays a role in the Dodgers' player acquisitions, but the decisive factor in their success is their willingness to act when other teams won’t. Sources: Forbes, Cots Contracts In an attempt to mitigate disparity, the CBA penalizes excessive spenders with the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). If a team's 40-man roster payroll exceeds the set yearly CBT threshold, it is taxed on the overages, with rates increasing for consecutive seasons of overspending. This past year, the CBT threshold was $241 million, and in 2026, it increases to $244 million. The CBA lays out MLB’s revenue-sharing model. Teams contribute to a shared pool, determined by a fixed percentage of net local revenue (the club’s local revenue minus actual stadium expenses), which is then distributed evenly to all 30 clubs. The exact percentage has fluctuated over the years, and it’s currently set at 48%. Jake McKibbin from Talk Sox’s sister site, Brewer Fanatic, notes MLB’s current model has two glaring loopholes: Some teams have managed to avoid paying what they should owe; and The revenues shared are then distributed equally, rather than on a meritocratic basis. That disincentivizes some teams from trying to win and improve the on-field product. Many teams have partial ownership of local/regional sports networks. As long as its accounting adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles, it has flexibility in how profits are allocated. McKibbin further outlines the loophole, stating: “While revenue from local TV rights is subject to sharing across the league, profits generated through ownership stakes in the broadcasting networks are not. Instead, they are treated as a subsidiary/investment earning.” The current landscape of the free-agent market highlights how teams are preparing for the lockout. The Angels signed former player Kurt Suzuki as a manager to an unusual one-year deal. Shifting from previous years, four players accepted qualifying offers. Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty surprisingly opted in with their respective teams instead of hitting free agency. While teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, and Blue Jays continue to spend aggressively to contend, the Cubs and Red Sox have each adopted different approaches to roster construction amid the uncertainty of a potential lockout. Both organizations reflect the character of their cities and the legacy of their longstanding franchises. Theo Epstein shepherded the Red Sox out of their 86-year championship drought and the Cubs out of their 108-year championship drought. Their respective owners, the Ricketts Family and Fenway Sports Group, rejected proposals to relocate each team from the two oldest ballparks in baseball. The Cubs invested nearly $1 billion to revamp the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley Field, while the $1.6 billion Fenway Corners development project is underway for the Red Sox. Craig Counsell (five-year, $40 million contract signed in November 2023) and Alex Cora (three-year, $21.75 million contract covering 2025-27) are two of the sport’s most respected and highest-paid managers. In recent years, they have struggled to advance to the postseason and make a deep playoff run. There’s also a history of personnel flow between the organizations’ front offices. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a disciple of the Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, who, in turn, was mentored by Theo Epstein. Hoyer (who could pass as Anderson Cooper's brother) held the following roles with the Red Sox: Assistant to the General Manager (2002), Assistant General Manager (2005-09), Co-General Manager (2005-06). Ryan Otero, the Cubs’ Director of Pitching, was recently hired as a special assistant to Breslow. Despite netting $584 million in revenue, the third-highest in baseball, the Cubs’ 39.5% payroll-to-revenue ratio ranked 25th. The Cubs have mostly steered clear of long-term deals for frontline talent in recent years. Ten years ago, Hoyer, then general manager under Theo Epstein, oversaw the Cubs’ largest contract ever: Jayson Heyward’s eight-year, $184-million deal. Excluding Dansby Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal, most of the Cubs' acquisitions since have been geared towards short-term deals; think Shota Imanaga’s original four-year, $53 million deal, signed in 2024, and Seiya Suzuki’s five-year, $85 million deal, signed in 2022. Homegrown players Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ were signed to three-year extensions in 2024. This past offseason, the Cubs offered Alex Bregman a four-year, $115 million contract that looked paltry in comparison to Detroit’s six-year, $171.5 million offer and the Astros’ six-year, $156 million offer. Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120 million contract. In Hoyer’s defense, he does his best with a limited budget imposed by ownership. He’s not afraid to jump the gun and make seismic deals, as evidenced by the Cubs’ blockbuster trade for Kyle Tucker. Most alarming is that numerous key Cubs players enter free agency after the 2027 season, including left fielder Ian Happ, designated hitter/outfielder Seiya Suzuki, starter Jameson Taillon, second baseman Nico Hoerner, and catcher Carson Kelly. Looking beyond 2027, the Cubs’ list of free agents snowballs with each passing year. Entering the 2027 season, shortstop Dansby Swanson and reliever Phil Maton are currently the only two Cubs players with guaranteed salaries. With the Cubs set to lose a large portion of their roster after next year and the limited spending, fans have suggested the team is “clean books” strategy to prepare for the impending lockout. The Cubs have developed a solid core of position players without spending heavily on free-agent talent. Cot’s Contracts projects that they can spend $46.12 million before hitting the first CB threshold. Their rotation needs an upgrade, and starters Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, and Michael King are potential targets. Extensions for homegrown talent, e.g. Pete Crow-Armstrong, are another avenue to build long-term roster stability. Moreover, the organization has been successful at recruiting Japanese talent to the team. Signing flamethrower Tatsuya Imai to a contract would assuage the “clean books” talks. The Red Sox allocated 43.8% ($251.47 million) of their previous year’s revenue ($574 million, the fourth-highest total in the league) towards their 2025 payroll. Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow is a former protege of Hoyer. Like the Cubs, the Red Sox tend to avoid long-term free-agent contracts. They’re one of the four remaining teams that haven’t signed a free agent to a major-league contract this offseason. The difference between the Cubs and the Red Sox’s roster construction is that the Red Sox have extended their homegrown players beyond 2027: Bryan Bello: 6 years, $55 million (2024-29), 2030 club option Kristian Campbell: 8 years, $60 million (2025-32), 2033-34 club options Ceddanne Rafaela: 8 years, $50 million (2024-31), 2032 club option Garrett Crochet: 6 years, $170 million (2026-31) Roman Anthony: 8 years, $130 million (2026-33), 2034 club option Teams do their best to accurately value the risk of free-agent contracts. Execution is equally as important as evaluation, and Breslow’s primary area of weakness has been acquiring free agents to supplement the roster. Looking at FanGraphs’ “We Tried Tracker” from last year, the Red Sox whiffed on almost all of their free-agent targets. Who was the most “notable” free agent that they acquired during the 2024-25 offseason, besides Bregman? Walker Buehler? Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations, warned, “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent”. Post-Winter Meetings, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, two of the available biggest bats, are off the table. While Schwarber always seemed primed to return to the Phillies, the Cubs and Red Sox reportedly met with Alonso. The latter had concerns with Alonso’s age (he just turned 31), defense, and baserunning. Sometimes, you have to bite the bullet and take on the risk of a free agent contract, future projections be damned. Before the 2018 season, the Red Sox signed the 30-year-old J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110 million deal. He generated 13.3 total fWAR through his tenure with the Red Sox. Roughly three-quarters of his WAR output came in 2018 (5.9) and 2019 (4.0). Towards the end of his contract, his performance declined, but it wasn’t a complete wash. With that being said, Martinez was, arguably, the linchpin of the 2018 team’s World Series run. The Red Sox’s homegrown core of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi desperately needed a power bat to supplement the lineup. Martinez was that solution. Other teams weren’t willing to bite, and the Red Sox took the risk of signing him. Would the current Red Sox front office sign Martinez? I think not. A club with a substantial record of failed free-agent signings gains nothing by creating excuses about feigned concerns with a player’s profile or adding an extra year for a marginal sum when it sits at the top of the league in revenue. I’m not saying the Red Sox should necessarily overpay for free-agent contracts that don’t align with their current needs (take the Padres hoarding infielders on long-term contracts). Likewise, signing Kyle Tucker would just exacerbate the team’s outfield logjam. Still, adherence to strict rationalism won’t bolster their roster and doesn’t match the realities of the free-agent market. As the offseason progresses, MLB organizations will continue to navigate the implications of the new collective bargaining agreement. The Red Sox have committed to a young core; whether they choose to supplement the roster further is up for question. The Cubs seemingly have built their roster around the lockout, with significant money coming off the books after the 2026 season. At the end of the day, the uncertainty surrounding the future payroll should not dictate roster-building decision-making. MLB free agency remains a free market, and teams must stay committed to putting the best possible roster on the field. Both the Cubs and Red Sox’s futures are bright, but failing to make significant upgrades through free agency will make it more challenging for each team to compete if or when they reach the playoffs. View the full article

Dylan Cease is ready to go. He made that fully clear in his introductory press conference with the Blue Jays during the Winter Meetings, but it doesn't seem like he has second-guessed himself at all over the past few weeks. A day before American Thanksgiving, he signed the largest free agent contract the team has ever given to a pitcher to break the dam of the open market. Despite some notable action around the league this week, it remains the most lucrative contract of the offseason at the time of writing. Cease is somewhat of a contradiction of the pitcher archetypes that usually make it to free agency. He has top-tier strikeout stuff, yet he's very durable and only just about to turn 30. A repeated pattern of underperforming strong peripherals caused some chatter as to whether Cease, as true of a north-south, two-pitch pitcher there is, would live up to the expectations of a $210 million starter. As with every new addition, though, he was signed for the player the Blue Jays thought he would become, not who he has been. He won't be quite the same pitcher when he steps on the Rogers Centre mound for the first time. Manager John Schneider, speaking to the media for the first time since Game 7 of the World Series, echoed that sentiment in Orlando on Tuesday. DiamondCentric's John Bonnes was on hand for the event. Schneider called Cease an "inquisitive mind," someone hyper-aware of his past shortcomings and eager to innovate and find ways to get better. The right-hander was reported to have asked frequent questions of pitching coaches Pete Walker and Sam Greene when they pitched him on how they could help him become a consistent ace. He came away intrigued by their answers. Cease may have come with a high price tag, but he is no finished product. This is someone who will work together with his club to build the best version of himself, a diligent process that will surely reflect Toronto's financial investment in him. At the Winter Meetings, Schneider delved further into the specifics of what the plan is to allow Cease to reach the heights he's striving for. The manager acknowledged that there had been some "delivery stuff that has been a little bit inconsistent, like every pitcher, over the last couple years." He then commended Cease's openness to "start thinking more about a change-up" and asking how the team would help him develop it. Those are some pretty good nuggets worth diving into. What might Schneider mean by 'inconsistent delivery stuff'? For years, Cease has had an over-the-top arm slot with a feel for spinning the ball, which allows him to get cutting action on that 97-mph rising fastball and the bullet slider. I wouldn't expect that to change a whole lot, but there was a discrepancy in the release patterns between the fastball and slider that might have played a background role in contributing to his inflated ERA. Since coming into his current mechanics in 2021, he has had a 5-6° difference in arm angle between the two pitches, with the heater coming out at a slightly more vertical 55-56° and the slider hovering around 50° - this remained the case throughout his Cy Young runner-up 2022 season. In 2024, however, he closed that gap to about 3°, making the two pitches less distinct in their delivery on his way to more down-ballot Cy Young votes. This past season, the rift returned, with the slider averaging a 48.5° arm angle, a career-low for a full season. Prior trends in his release height remained consistent, meaning this had more to do with horizontal release position. The chart below, from Baseball Savant, shows how Cease's two primary pitches were released at almost the exact same point from the center of the mound in 2024, before the slider came out farther towards third base this past year: Now feels like a good time to remind everyone to look at the Y-axis of this chart. We are dealing with differences in mere inches here, details that would be invisible to the naked eyes of you, me, and everyone else who isn't an experienced player or coach in the big leagues. To the hitters, though, who spend countless hours on the lookout for pitch tipping and any other clue that might tell them what's coming their way, it just might be noticeable. I'd wager this topic was in the general realm of what was discussed between Cease and the Blue Jays a few weeks ago, but it's also important to remember that MLB teams have access to much more expansive release and delivery data than the public. It felt like Cease was a prime candidate to once again attempt the integration of a changeup or splitter to his arsenal weeks before Schneider confirmed that was the case. Cease himself admitted a couple of years ago that he has long been working hard to add a pitch with arm-side movement, and added that the grip he used for the very slow lollipop changeup we have seen from him on occasion was modelled after Kevin Gausman's splitter. Isn't it funny how things work out sometimes? Cease is now teammates with Gausman, as well as Trey Yesavage and Jeff Hoffman, three prominent splitter users. Shane Bieber returned from Tommy John with a new kick change. New signing Cody Ponce similarly revamped his changeup overseas. The Blue Jays are a hotbed for plus off-speed pitches, and there can't be many, if any at all, better places for Cease to learn one. The advantages of throwing more competitive pitches are intuitive: More weapons give hitters more to think about at the plate, giving the pitcher a higher chance of going deeper into games. Researchers have developed models to evaluate pitchers, especially starters, with this very concept. The knock on Cease from a pitch design standpoint has always been that he's a two-pitch guy, but he started to move away from that in the second half of the 2025 season and got rewarded. Once he pushed his combined fastball and slider usage below 80%, opponents were less successful in the aggregate, despite some walk problems at the outset of this strategy (which is to be expected, as control isn't going to be great when tinkering with new pitch types). Dylan Cease Monthly Splits, 2025 Month FF+SL Usage% K-BB% wOBA March/April 81.0% 17.6% .350 May 91.7% 24.8% .282 June 92.6% 19.4% .303 July 85.1% 21.2% .340 August 71.7% 15.8% .292 September 74.3% 20.0% .309 Every changeup iteration he has attempted has achieved the lower spin rates we typically see from the pitch, but the vertical movements resemble that of a dead-zone fastball (15" IVB). The ones he has tried in recent years have been well under 80 mph, far too slow to be unpredictable. I wonder if his newest attempt at an off-speed pitch will be classified as a splitter or a kick change if and when the Blue Jays can bring it to life, seeing as his repeated problem to this point has been a lack of vertical separation from the heater. Getting the pitch to meaningfully fall off the table is something he has not been able to do yet, and it'll figure to be one of his first objectives as he gets to work this winter. Dylan Cease Career Changeup Specs (2019-25) Pitches MPH RPM IVB Arm-Side HB 710 79.0 1,666 15.2" 6.1" The tidbits from Cease's introductory press conference, as well as John Schneider's insights into the conversations he has had with his new team, should be reassuring to the fanbase. An organization that prides itself to this degree on clubhouse culture and bringing the right personalities into the fold would not hand out $210 million on a whim, and Cease has shown every indication that he's ready to admit to and work through his previous shortfalls, diligently try to be the ace he's expected to be, and take pride in being a Blue Jay. The fact that the team dug this far into the weeds as to how they'd help him get better before they even spoke with him is no doubt reflective of the current standard for free agency meetings. Yet, because it helped persuade him to sign here, it's also a testament to the lengths they are willing to go in order to bring the game's best talent to Toronto. If it was good enough for Dylan Cease, more are sure to follow. The prospect of his evolution for 2026 and beyond looms excitingly. View the full article

If you want to be pedantic about it, the next step for the Miami Marlins is to actually announce their signing of Christopher Morel—the one-year, $2 million deal is still pending a physical as of early Monday morning. Assuming no complications with that, then what? As has been widely reported, the Marlins are searching for bullpen upgrades via free agency while entertaining trade offers for their starting pitchers, with most of the focus on Edward Cabrera. Contract extensions for Miami's top pre-arb players are also in play. I expect the bullpen signing to come first. Most of the relievers on the market who merited multi-year deals have already gotten them, and the Marlins insist on keeping their books clean beyond next season. Kirby Yates feels like the realistic best-case scenario. He was in the conversation for most dominant 'pen arm in MLB from the beginning of 2024 through the first quarter of 2025 before various injuries derailed him. Prized Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai has until January 2 to strike a deal with a major league club. Many of the suitors who fall short of acquiring the 27-year-old right-hander figure to be interested in Cabrera, himself being a 27-year-old right-hander. The Marlins might as well wait until then to intensify their negotiations. Extensions almost certainly will come last. Those can wait until spring training (once the Marlins have the comfort of knowing their extension candidates are fully healthy entering year one of a potential long-term deal). On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4 with a walk. Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 1-for-4, extending his on-base streak to 12 games. Only 102 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 After 10 seasons as owner of the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, Ken Babby sold the team to the Prospector Baseball Group. One of PBG's co-founders vows to continue running the Triple-A affiliate with "a distinctively local touch, with fans coming first." 🔷 The Marlins contributed 20 items to the MLB Winter Meetings Charity Auction, which combined to raise $18,165 for the Little League Disaster Relief Fund. A game-used Ichiro Suzuki jersey from 2016 did a lot of the heavy lifting ($7,030 winning bid). 🔷 Congratulations to Marle and Otto Lopez, who had their wedding last weekend in the Dominican Republic. Agustín Ramírez and Xavier Edwards were among the Marlins teammates who attended. 🔷 Today marks the final day of the 2025 signing period for international amateur free agents. The Marlins have officially signed 26 players this year, as shown here. That table will be updated if any stragglers join the organization today. The 2026 signing period will open on January 15. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, the following players signed major league free agent deals: Jorge Polanco with the New York Mets (2-YR/$40M), Merrill Kelly with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-YR/$40M), Tyler Rogers with the Toronto Blue Jays (3-YR/$37M), Danny Jansen (2-YR/$14.5M), Alexis Díaz and Tyler Alexander with the Texas Rangers, Kenley Jansen with the Detroit Tigers (1-YR/$11M), Amed Rosario with the New York Yankees (1-YR/$2.5M) and Dustin May with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Kansas City Royals traded Angel Zerpa to the Milwaukee Brewers for Isaac Collins and Nick Mears, and they signed Maikel Garcia to a contract extension (5-YR/$57.5M). View the full article

At this week's hotly anticipated (and grossly underwhelming) MLB Winter Meetings in Orlando, a lack of activity from Chicago's North Side baseball team left fans feeling colder than a Roscoe Village sidewalk in January. While the squad's starting pitching rotation has not been rounded out quite yet, skipper Craig Counsell emphasized to the media in his presser that pitching is not a commodity of which any team can have enough. Jed Hoyer and his staff agree, but so far, they're taking a quantity-over-quality approach. They've signed three relievers this winter: Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, and Collin Snider. These three could prove key pieces to a bullpen that kept batters off balance in 2025. However, the bullpen is really only worth a damn if the starter sets them up for success. So, with prime targets like Michael King, Joe Ryan, and the pined-over Tatsuya Imai remaining unsigned, what's next? And, more importantly, who is the best option to help the Chicago Cubs claim the Fall Classic? Even Cubs fans engaged in heated debates over what is or isn't a Christmas movie agree that their favorite baseball team needs a poised, imposing starting pitcher, not only to attain their lofty postseason goals, but to reclaim the crown in their own National League Central, where the Milwaukee Brewers have reigned for far too long. There are a few fine options who would instantly make this squad better, but we've covered a handful of them recently. Today, let's focus on the pitcher who could make this a championship-caliber group: Tatsuya Imai. Imai is the best fit to join the Chicago Cubs; that's why the club's pursuit of him is so intentional. In eight seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, Imai has been sturdy and occasionally dominant, with a 3.15 ERA and 907 strikeouts. Though he comes from the land of the diving splitter, Imai's mid-90s velocity and plus slider make him distinctly American in style and could make him the missing ingredient for a Cubs team often light on whiffs. Needless to say, another main component of Imai's profile that makes him attractive to the Cubs' front office is his youth. At just 27 years old, he could add a charge of young talent sorely missing in this rotation. Outside of Cade Horton, the Cubs' rotation leans on the older side, with just Horton and Javier Assad coming in under age 30. Younger players carry more untapped potential than a veteran player with a known track record—although, of course, they also come with more risk. With the acquisition of Tatsuya Imai, the Chicago Cubs would have an opportunity to announce that they are a true World Series contender, not just a postseason also-ran. After falling in five games to the Milwaukee Brewers last October, Craig Counsell's squad looked on as his former team got erased by the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. The North Siders aren't as good as the Dodgers, probably, but they do have a chance to be better than the Brew Crew, and Imai's arrival at Wrigley would signal that they think so, too. View the full article

On Saturday, the Royals and Brewers made a headlines-grabbing swap in an effort to boost both of their clubs. Kansas City acquired outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears in exchange for reliever Angel Zerpa. After acquiring free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas earlier this week, the Royals have now improved their outfield depth with this latest addition from Milwaukee. That said, it doesn't seem like Royals GM JJ Picollo is done just yet. Rogers wrote that the Royals front office is still looking to add to their lineup this offseason to improve an offense that ranked 26th in OPS and runs scored a season ago. Royals fans have been expecting a significant outfield upgrade this offseason, especially with rumors connecting Kansas City to big-name outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Jarren Duran, and Luis Robert Jr. That said, they shouldn't overlook this vital deal with the Brewers. This move checked a lot of boxes for Kansas City, and it still gives them the roster and financial flexibility they need for a deal later this offseason. Let's look at who the Royals acquired in Collins and Mears and what they gave up in Zerpa, who has been a key part of the Royals' bullpen the past couple of seasons. Royals Get Polished, Controllable Outfielder in Isaac Collins The main prize in the deal for the Royals is Collins, a 28-year-old outfielder who finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year race last season. A ninth-round pick out of Creighton, Collins isn't precisely a high-ceiling kind of player, but he provides the type of profile that the Royals were missing in the outfield last season until Mike Yastrzemski came over at the Trade Deadline. In 441 plate appearances, Collins slashed .263/.368/.411 with a .779 OPS and 122 wRC+. He also hit nine home runs, scored 56 runs, collected 54 RBI, stole 16 bases, and posted a 0.61 BB/K ratio. For context, Collins' BB/K ratio would've been the fourth-best mark of Royals hitters with 10 or more plate appearances last season, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, Collins' strong plate discipline wasn't just evident in his BB/K ratio, but also in his strong O-Swing%, Whiff%, and BB%. The exit velocity and batted-ball metrics were a bit of a concern for Collins last season. He ranked in the 25th percentile in average EV, 16th percentile in barrel rate, and 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate. His 87.8 MPH average exit velocity would have ranked 10th last year among Royals outfielders, tying him with Kyle Isbel, who had a similar average EV. Thus, some feel that Collins may be a regression candidate in 2025, which Jack Stern of Brewer Fanatic wrote about in December. There certainly are some concerns with Collins when looking at his Statcast profile. That said, there are a few positives about his outlook in Kansas City for 2026 and beyond. First, he did a good job of pulling the ball well to both fields (he's a switch-hitter). When applying his 2025 spray chart to Kauffman Stadium, it seems like Collins wouldn't have missed a beat, though a few of the home runs to right field may have been short. Other than the home runs, his spray profile should transition seamlessly to Kansas City's home confines. Another positive about Collins is that his "struggles" seemed to stem from a September slump, which colored Brewers fans' outlook for him next season. When looking at his splits via Savant, he posted a .664 OPS in the last month of the year after three-straight months of an OPS over .845. While it makes sense that the Brewers may have used him more sparingly going into the postseason due to his end-of-the-season issues, his overall performance from 2025 was still strong and worthy of regular playing time. He also still showcased substantial OBP numbers throughout 2025, even in months that weren't great batting-average-wise. In September, his OBP was .345 despite a .191 average. In April and May, his OBP marks were .306 and .319, respectively. To compare, Royals outfielders ranked last in OBP with a .283 mark, according to Fangraphs. Thus, even when Collins was at his worst last year, his profile is still a significant upgrade over what they trotted out last year in the outfield. Collins' rolling xwOBA chart also showed some positive trends at the end of the season after an initial dip in September. That indicates that Collins may have also been a victim of some rough batted-ball luck, which should correct itself in 2026. Finally, the projections seem to paint Collins in a positive light for 2026. Steamer projects Collins to post a .232/.335/.370 slash with a .704 OPS and 101 wRC+. He is also projected to have a 0.52 BB/K ratio, .137 ISO, and .314 wOBA. Obviously, many of those projections are a regression from his 2025 numbers. However, the BB/K ratio is pretty stable, and the wOBA matches the second-best mark for Royals outfielders a season ago (which belonged to Adam Frazier). Collins may not be THE answer in the Royals outfield next year and long-term (though he doesn't become a free agent until 2031). But he is AN answer in the sense that he gives Kansas City the kind of plate discipline and overall skills (he had a +4 OAA defensively last year) that the Royals desperately need. Nick Mears Boosts the Royals Bullpen in Chase and Whiffs The Royals' bullpen showed significant improvement in 2025 thanks to Carlos Estevez, who brought stability to the closer's role, and to better overall depth in the middle innings. Kansas City's bullpen ranked 7th in reliever ERA, 12th in WHIP, and fourth in BB/9. However, Royals relievers struggled in one particular category: strikeouts. The group ranked 29th in K/9, and while it worked out for them in 2025, it's unlikely that the bullpen would be as fortunate in 2026 without some upgrades and significant improvement in some critical areas. When it came to why the bullpen struggled, Royals relievers had trouble generating chase and whiffs, which coincided with their strikeout struggles last year. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen ranked 28th in O-Swing% (29.7%) and 30th in SwStr% (9.8%). Mears helps the Royals' bullpen in both of those categories. He posted a 37.3% O-Swing% and generated a 13% SwStr%. His 28% CSW (called-strike plus whiff) rate was also much better than the Royals bullpen's 26.9% CSW rate as a group, which ranked 27th last season. When it comes to his profile, Mears offers a three-pitch mix with substantial TJ Stuff+ numbers, which has helped him perform well in the chase and whiff categories. Mears' overall TJ Stuff+ was 107 last year, with his four-seamer, slider, and curveball posting grades of 63, 59, and 54, respectively. Those are all above-average marks, and he also posted above-average results in Zone% (55.7%) and chase rate (33.2%). An undrafted pitcher out of Sacramento (he went to Rocklin High School and then Sacramento City College), his best offering is his slider, which not only sported a 108 TJ Stuff+ but also a 46% chase and 38.4% whiff rate. Mears was effective against lefties and righties with the pitch, as he sported a .193 wOBA and 27.4% whiff rate with the slider against lefties and a .204 wOBA and 44.6% whiff rate against righties. A further breakdown of his slider's performance against lefties and righties can be seen in the data and heatmap below (courtesy of TJ Stats). Against lefties, he tended to attack hitters with the slider more middle and down. Against righties, he attacked more low and away. Both approaches produced results, as illustrated by his CSW marks of 35% and 40.2% against lefties and righties, respectively. The clip compilation below, showing strikeouts of Jurickson Profar and Julio Rodriguez, also demonstrates how productive Mears could be when he commanded the slider effectively. The primary concern with Mears is his fastball, which had good TJ Stuff+ numbers, but didn't generate much chase (22.7%) or whiff (14.6%). When looking at his four-seamer heatmap and data via TJ Stats, he did a good job of locating the ball up, but he seemed to struggle to get CSW and to give up productive contact (as illustrated by the mediocre xwOBACON marks). Allowing productive contact seemed to be an issue overall, as demonstrated by his .405 xwOBACON allowed last year. That said, if he can improve his xwOBACON on the four-seamer, it could go a long way toward better overall results in 2026. He certainly will be an interesting project for pitching coach Brian Sweeney and new assistant pitching coach Mike McFerran this spring in Surprise. If they can help with his four-seamer shape and command, he could end up being a solid setup man for the Royals in 2026 and beyond. Royals Willing to Part With Angel Zerpa This offseason, Rogers reported that the Royals were interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who could be effective primarily against left-handed pitchers. That made me wonder if the Royals were planning on trading one of their lefties on the 40-man roster: Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, or Bailey Falter. Yesterday, Picollo showed they were willing to trade away Zerpa, even though he was one of the lefty relievers Matt Quatraro heavily utilized in medium-to-high-leverage situations. The Venezuelan lefty has always been a bit of a dilemma for the Royals the past couple of seasons. On one hand, he didn't walk batters (2.64 K/BB ratio), and he demonstrated durability, pitching 64.2 innings for the Royals last year. His ERA was a bit high for a setup man at 4.18, but his FIP was much better at 3.86, which was a career-high. And yet, it felt like the Royals had maxed out their hand with Zerpa and his outlook. He was a fine middle-innings reliever, but he didn't have the TJ Stuff+ profile to be anything more than that, as illustrated below. Zerpa sported a 97 overall TJ Stuff+ last year, with his sinker and slider the only pitches with grades over 50. He did flood the strike zone with a 54.7% zone rate. However, he sported mediocre chase (26.7%) and whiff (16.4%) rates. Considering the Royals' problems in those two areas last year, it made sense that the Royals were willing to part with Zerpa in a trade, especially if it meant getting a pitcher who could be better than Zerpa in whiff and chase. Now, the Brewers are an excellent organization, known for developing pitchers on a budget. Zerpa could be a success story for Milwaukee, and if so, kudos to them for another positive development. To be fair to Zerpa, his Steamer projections paint a rosy picture for 2026: 3.44 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio, and 1.27 WHIP in 60 IP. That said, the Royals needed to give up something to get something needed in return this offseason. Zerpa was the odd man out in this case, and based on his metrics and outlook, I think trading the lefty was well worth the return they received in Collins and Mears. (Plus, Baseball Trade Values felt the same way, too.) Let's hope Picollo has more stellar moves like this one up his sleeve this winter, especially with their goal of returning to the postseason after missing out in 2025. View the full article

Certainly, the list of teams that have yet to sign a major league free agent is trying to tell us something. It always is. When that list includes the Nationals and Rockies -- two clubs that spent 2025 playing out the string and still managed to finish a combined 80 games out of first place -- the message isn’t exactly encrypted. Those organizations have made peace with their current reality, and free agency is apparently not the place where they plan to fix it. As a reminder, Major League Baseball ownership is not required to spend money in any sort of equitable or competitive way. There are luxury tax penalties, sure, but many teams treat those like speed bumps -- something to hit harder so you get airborne on the other side. The Dodgers, perched at the top of the payroll food chain, pay a luxury tax larger than the entire payrolls of 12 other teams. This is not an accident. It’s a choice. None of this is meant as an excuse for the Pohlad family. They are free to spend as much as they’d like. In fact, it would probably make them more money in the long run. There’s research on fandom psychology showing that when teams win championships during a child’s formative years (roughly ages 8 to 12), the emotional attachment is basically permanent. Speaking as someone who was 8 and 10 when the Twins last won the World Series, I can say with some confidence that without those titles, I probably wouldn’t be sitting here banging away at a keyboard explaining why this organization should win baseball games. You can argue, and people often do, that baseball in Minnesota presents unique challenges. Cold spring weather. Cabin weekends. A population that wants to be outside the second the snow melts. Pepper in the lingering perception that downtown isn’t safe. (I’d argue that’s at least partially manufactured, but the response to it is very real. Target Field’s surrounding infrastructure is designed so fans can exit their cars, enter a ramp, cross a skyway, and reach their seats without ever really interacting with downtown at all.) Then there’s the simple, unavoidable cost of taking a family to a game. Wrap that all in a fetid burrito shell of losing baseball and you can see how the attendance has shrunk to near nothing. All of that is to say: winning could solve a lot of those problems. Grabbing attention in a positive way would help awake a dormant fanbase. It would be easy -- and honestly pretty cathartic -- to wallow in the reality that the Twins aren’t going to “play the spend game.” The ongoing team sale saga only reinforces why blowing past self-imposed guardrails might not be prudent when buyers never quite materialize. This is simply the world the Twins have chosen to operate in. We can be mad about it. We can tweet about it. But we don’t control it. Which brings us to the first immutable truth of the Twins’ offseason: they are not shopping in the premium free agent aisle. You can point to Carlos Correa as evidence that they’ll chase elite talent, but even there the market was softened by injury concerns. Acknowledging that, you’d still think there should be some options in the next tier, those players who fit a team publicly committed to building around its existing core. As Derek Falvey explained during the Winter Meetings, this is just how the market works now. The Twins have openly acknowledged the need for a power bat, but the odds of that bat being the market-setter -- someone like Pete Alonso -- were always close to zero. Yes, it would have been fun to watch the Polar Bear deposit baseballs into the Target Field seats for a couple of summers. It’s also true that aging corner infielders on long-term deals have a tendency to stop aging gracefully right around the time the contract gets uncomfortable. The real question is whether similar production can be found in the next tier -- the Ryan O’Hearn or Carlos Santana types who sat just behind Alonso in WAR in 2025. That doesn’t mean help isn’t coming. As Falvey noted, conversations with late-signing free agents often begin far earlier than fans realize. It’s not sexy, but it’s worth remembering that Bader’s 4.4 WAR in 2025 ranked among the best of any current free agent center fielder -- and 2.7 of that came in a Twins uniform. Taken together, the Bader, Coulombe, and France trio produced 5.1 WAR at a combined cost of roughly $8.75 million. That’s not a terrible return for waiting out the market. That said, there’s a fine line between acknowledging efficient roster construction and applauding austerity, and celebrating miserly decision-making by front offices might be the most lasting -- and frustrating -- legacy Moneyball left an entire generation of fans. The second notable offseason trend is the reliever market, where top-end arms have been scooped up like James Woods following a trail of candy -- and the Twins haven’t even been rumored participants. This is especially confusing given that the front office effectively emptied the bullpen at last year’s trade deadline. It’s also a team that operates squarely in the modern philosophy of shortening games and leaning heavily on relievers. In 2025, Twins relievers threw multiple innings just 109 times. Only the Cubs and Phillies used their bullpen in shorter bursts. If there were ever a roster primed for a bullpen reload, it’s this one. There are reasons for the restraint. Historically, Falvey’s front office has avoided multi-year deals for free agent relievers. Most additions come late in the offseason, on one-year contracts. Given the volatility of bullpen arms, that logic tracks. Pitching is the most expensive commodity on the open market, and the Twins have invested heavily in an “arm barn” designed to produce options internally at a fraction of the cost. There’s also confidence in the current wave of young arms. Just as Griffin Jax and Louis Varland before them, several starting pitching prospects are likely to be converted into relievers. Scroll through the list of arms acquired or already in the system, and it’s almost a certainty that one or more will be asked to handle late-inning duties by season’s end. The Twins will continue to take shots on one-year relievers and waiver claims they believe can be molded into something more. It hasn’t always worked, but keeping long-term money off the bullpen preserves flexibility elsewhere. Still, it’s hard not to feel exhausted by the annual exercise of justifying all of this. From a fan’s perspective, the math is simple: identify the best players and go get them. The Twins’ ownership and front office have chosen a different equation, complete with clearly defined guardrails. And like it or not, they’ll continue operating within them -- come hell, high water, or another quiet winter. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins spent last summer trading away nearly every living relief pitcher in the organization. Fans watched as the front office moved five arms at the deadline, several of them with multiple years of team control, and then acted surprised when the bullpen depth chart looked like a garage sale table the next morning. Now, after Joey Gallo posted a short social media video of himself throwing a few pitches, the Twins front office has decided that this is exactly the kind of forward thinking they need. Gallo’s three pitch cameo on social media sounded impressive. You could not see where the ball went but it made a loud noise, which is half of pitching anyway. The Twins immediately logged it as a scouting report. Front office officials reportedly gathered around Derek Falvey’s phone like teenagers watching a viral highlight, nodding solemnly as if they had discovered a new setup man. With the bullpen thinned from last year’s sell off, they are willing to consider anything. That willingness has opened the door to a new era of creativity. If Gallo can reinvent himself on the mound, the Twins wonder who else might be hiding untapped bullpen potential. The team will soon introduce the Community Tryout Initiative at Target Field. Anyone who has ever thrown out a ceremonial first pitch is apparently on a short list of candidates. A marketing intern says the team already has radar guns ready for the next school field trip. If a fourth grader accidentally breaks 80 miles per hour, he will be offered a minor league deal and a voucher for ballpark nachos. The Twins have also reportedly asked position players to attend a voluntary pitching seminar that is not actually voluntary. Royce Lewis has been encouraged to learn a splitter because the analytics department believes it could help his recovery timeline even if he never throws it in a game. Matt Wallner and his cannon of an arm was handed a brochure titled So You Might Be A Reliever Now. Even Byron Buxton, a standout high school pitcher, was approached but declined politely since trying to pitch would almost certainly lead to twelve new injury updates. Minnesota is also considering an initiative to convert past Twins who return to the ballpark for alumni events. Latroy Hawkins, the team’s new bullpen coach, is the most logical choice. Plus, it helps add to his career totals. Michael Cuddyer is in the conversation too. Torii Hunter is safe only because the front office assumes he would laugh and walk out of the room before they finished the sentence. In the end, the Twins may actually sign a few real relievers. They always do. But for now the bullpen plan remains a blend of hope, improvisation, and mild panic. And if Gallo keeps posting videos of his fastball, there is a real chance that he becomes the most experienced arm in the entire relief corps. View the full article

Former Twins outfielder Carson McCusker has found his next baseball home. According to Francys Romero of Beisbol FR, McCusker has signed a one year contract with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The move comes shortly after Minnesota placed McCusker on unconditional release waivers during the Winter Meeting. At the time, reports indicated McCusker was expected to play in Asia in 2026, though the destination had not yet been finalized. The timing mattered for Minnesota. Releasing McCusker dropped the club’s 40-man roster count to 39 just hours before the Rule 5 draft, opening the door for activity. The Twins used that flexibility to select catcher Daniel Susac from the A’s organization and quickly flipped him to the San Francisco Giants for rookie ball catcher Miguel Caraballo. From the Twins’ perspective, the transaction was more about roster mechanics than performance. From McCusker’s perspective, it marked another unexpected turn in a career defined by persistence. McCusker will turn 28 in May and his path to the big leagues was anything but traditional. He went undrafted out of college and spent parts of the 2021 and 2022 seasons in independent ball. The Twins signed him with little fanfare, and over the next few years he steadily climbed the ladder. In 2025, that work paid off with a call to the majors. His time in Minnesota was brief but meaningful. McCusker appeared in 16 games and stepped to the plate 30 times, posting a .172/.200/.172 (.372) slash line. The production was below average, but simply reaching the majors represented a massive personal victory for a player who had been outside affiliated baseball not long before. The more compelling case for McCusker has always lived in the minors. From 2023 through 2025, he logged 1,146 plate appearances across multiple levels of the Twins system. The strikeouts were plentiful, with a 32.1 percent rate, but so was the power. McCusker launched 55 home runs and slashed .265/.335/.494 (.829), good for a 119 wRC+. Opportunity, however, was going to be scarce going forward. Minnesota’s outfield picture is crowded with Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, James Outman, Alan Roden, Austin Martin, and Kody Clemens. Top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Hendry Mendez all played in the upper minors last season and will be on track to debut in 2026. By heading overseas, McCusker likely secures a stronger financial guarantee and a clearer path to regular playing time. Success in Japan could open the door to a return to North America or additional opportunities abroad. Given the route he has already taken, betting on another unconventional chapter feels entirely on brand. View the full article

The Royals have been busy on the transactional end since the conclusion of the MLB Winter Meetings. Over the past week, they have signed free-agent outfielder Lane Thomas, inked third-baseman Maikel Garcia to a five-year extension, and traded reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for outfielder Isaac Collins and reliever Nick Mears. However, a couple of deals that shouldn't get lost in the shuffle are the signings of infielder Kevin Newman and reliever (and former Royal) Jose Cuas to Minor League deals. Newman is the bigger signing of the two, as he played last season with the Angels. In 57 games and 116 plate appearances, the former Pirates first-round draft pick slashed .202/.292/.272 with a .481 OPS and 27 wRC+. He also hit two home runs, scored 13 runs, and posted an fWAR of -0.7. Not only were Newman's metrics not great, but he also put up lackluster exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel metrics. Conversely, he still showed solid plate discipline and contact ability, as evidenced by his TJ Stats summary from a season ago with the Angels. With an 87th percentile whiff rate and 85th percentile Z-Contact%, Newman is the kind of infielder who can serve as an emergency utility infielder off the bench. On a positive note, he had a much better season in 2024 with the Diamondbacks. In 111 games and 311 plate appearances with Arizona, he slashed .278/.311/.375 with a .686 OPS, 0.31 BB/K ratio, and 89 wRC+. He also hit three home runs, scored 41 runs, and accumulated a 1.4 fWAR with the Diamondbacks, the second-highest single-season mark of his career. If Newman can replicate something close to his 2024 mark, he could be the bench utility player they need for 2026. That also lessens Kansas City's need to bring back Adam Frazier for next season. While not expensive, Frazier would cost a lot more than Newman and may not produce much more value than the 32-year-old University of Arizona product (Frazier has combined for 0.2 fWAR over the past two seasons). Another Minor League move the Royals made this week was bringing Cuas back. Unlike Newman, Cuas does not have an invite to Spring Training, though that could change depending on how things shake up pitching-wise this winter. After putting up a 3.58 ERA in 37.2 IP in 2022 and a 4.54 ERA in 41.2 IP in 2023, the Royals traded Cuas to the Chicago Cubs in 2023 at the Trade Deadline for outfielder Nelson Velázquez. Cuas posted a 3.04 ERA in 23.1 IP with the Cubs that season, but he only posted a 1.36 K/BB ratio and had a 4.90 FIP. Unsurprisingly, regression hit him hard in 2024 with the Cubs, as he posted a 7.43 ERA, 2.33 K/BB ratio, and 6.02 FIP in 9 games and 13.1 IP with Chicago. As a result of these poor metrics, the Cubs designated him for assignment in June of that year. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed him on waivers, hoping to get him back to the 2023 form, but it didn't pan out as expected. Cuas posted a 9.00 ERA, 0.75 K/BB ratio, and 11.50 FIP in four outings and three IP. The Blue Jays then designated him for assignment in September and eventually released him. Since being released by the Blue Jays, Cuas has been in the Braves and Phillies organizations, but has not pitched at the Major League level. Last season, the 31-year-old righty posted a 3.22 ERA, 1.28 K/BB ratio, and 3.68 FIP in Double-A Columbus (Atlanta), and a 13.50 ERA, 0.80 K/BB ratio, and 10.81 FIP with Triple-A Lehigh Valley (Philadelphia). With the Iron Pigs, Cuas struggled with generating whiffs and chase, and his stuff didn't profile well either, via TJ Stats. Even though his tenure in the Braves and Phillies organizations wasn't ideal, the Royals are likely hoping that Cuas can provide some depth and stability to the Triple-A Omaha bullpen in 2026. The Storm Chasers struggled with pitching last season, posting a 5.49 ERA, the second-worst mark in the International League. Photo Credit: © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images View the full article

According to Francys Romero, one of the Padres' trade interests is embattled White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Robert Jr., 28, is under team control for potentially two more seasons; Chicago holds $20 million club options for both 2026 and 2027 with a $2 million buyout. In 2024, Robert appeared in 100 games and logged 425 plate appearances, hitting 14 homers and stealing 23 bases. He produced a .224/.278/.379 line with a .285 wOBA and 84 wRC+, plus a 6.6% BB% and 33.2% K%, finishing at 0.6 fWAR. In 2025, he played 110 games (431 plate appearances) and again hit 14 homers, while stealing 33 bases. He posted a .223/.297/.364 line with a .289 wOBA and 84 wRC+, paired with a 9.3% BB% and 26.0% K%. His 2025 total was 1.3 fWAR. View the full article

During the 1990s, the Brewers had three main closers, and although they didn't shine for long, they all shone brightly before flaring out. Doug Henry was the main man for Milwaukee from 1991-93, earning 61 saves. That number ranks 10th in Brewer history. Mike Fetters took over after Henry and notched 71 saves from 1994-96. Overall, he has 79 saves, which is tied with Bob Wickman for sixth place. Doug Jones posted 36 saves at age 40 in 1997 and had 12 the following season. His total of 49 ranks 16th. View the full article

Every baseball fan has played or at least heard of the video game “MLB The Show.” It is not only the best baseball game out there but also one of the most popular sports video games on the market. When you fire up the single-player game mode “Road to The Show,” you are met with a character creation screen. Most sports games would have the name listed as First Name Last Name or something along those lines. However, MLB The Show’s name box reads Joe Random. Now, I may not be correct here, but I have a feeling that the name was partially inspired by Royals' fan-favorite Joe Randa. For those who don’t know, Joe Randa was an infielder who carved out an underrated 12-year career in the bigs, with eight of those seasons coming with the Royals. Randa was born on December 18, 1969, in Milwaukee and grew up 30 minutes west of the city of Wales, Wisconsin. Randa grew up playing lots of sports and was especially good at tennis and baseball. He would go to Kettle Moraine High School and lead the team to a state title in his senior year. He would then attend Broward Community College, where he was recruited by a young coach named Allard Baird, who would later become the Royals' general manager. When Baird left, Randa transferred to Indian River State College in Florida and would eventually get drafted by the California Angels in the 30th round of the 1989 draft. He didn’t sign and eventually transferred to the University of Tennessee. After hitting .342 with 10 home runs for the Volunteers, the Royals drafted him in the 11th round of the 1991 draft. From there, Randa would tear through the minors, hitting .338 with 11 home runs in 72 games for the Eugene Emeralds, earning Northwest League MVP. He wouldn’t put the power numbers as he did in Eugene, but he would still hit for a high average, which would help him move up the ranks. He would’ve reached the majors sooner if it weren’t for Gary Gaetti blocking his way. However, he would finally get his shot in 1995. He struggled at first, but Joe would find his footing, finishing 1996 with a .303 average. However, the Royals would trade him and three Jeffs (Martin, Granger, and Wallace) to the Pirates, Jay Bell, and another Jeff (King this time). Randa put up impressive numbers during his brief time in Pittsburgh, hitting .302/.366/.451 with a Baseball-Reference WAR of 3.5. However, he committed 21 errors at third base, so the Pirates decided to move on from him. Randa would be flipped to the Tigers, where he would underperform and be traded to the Mets. The Mets already had All-Star Robin Ventura at third, so the team gave Joe a choice: go back to Pittsburgh or go to Kansas City. He chose the Royals. Joe would be given the third base job upon his arrival back, and he would thrive in his second stint with the Royals. He would start slowly, but after working with George Brett, he never looked back. That season, from June to July of the 1999 season, Randa had a monster triple slash of .404/.441/.644 in 51 games. He would finish the year hitting .314, and his 197 hits were sixth best in the American League. His tendency to smile during at-bats gave him the nickname "The Joker,” and he would give Royals fans a reason to grin in 2000. Randa would lead one of the best offenses the Royals have ever produced. The Royals scored the most runs in franchise history (729) in 2000, with Randa driving in 106 of them, along with a .304/.343/.438 triple slash. He would sign a one-year deal with the Royals and then would be extended for two more years at a below-market price of $8.5 million. He didn’t mind as he insisted on spending the rest of his career in Kansas City. Randa would regress the following year, with injuries being the leading cause of the decline. He would bounce back in 2002; however, trade rumors would start to swirl as the Royals were having a down year and wanted to move Joe to a contender. Joe would veto these trades using his no-trade clause as he wanted to stay in Kansas City. The Royals would oblige and reap the benefits of keeping him as he put up a .291/.348/.452 with 16 home runs, 72 RBIs, and set a franchise record with 75 games in a row without an error. Joe would stick around for one more year, where he put up great numbers for a team that lost 104 games. He would end his tenure with the Royals in the 2005 offseason, when the team declined his option, and he would sign a one-year deal with the Reds. He would be traded to the Padres that summer for their pennant run, marking the only time Randa would play in the postseason. He’d play one more year with Pittsburgh before retiring in 2006. He would finish with 1,543 career hits, 123 home runs, and a career batting average of .284. Randa works with the Royals as a minor league special assistant. From 1999-2004, Joe Randa would hit .289/.341/.431 and was a dependable player for the Royals during those frustrating years. Even with the team doing badly, having Randa in the lineup made Royals fans breathe a little easier. He was a reliable player, someone who deserves more flowers and recognition for how good he really was. However, maybe the recognition lies in the many “MLB The Show” players who don’t change the name from Joe Random. It may not be much, but maybe it’s enough to know that, on computer and television screens across the country, a little piece of him steps up to the plate every day. View the full article

Mason Miller was brought over at the 2025 trade deadline to help the San Diego Padres make a push for the World Series. While that pursuit ended up coming up short, he showed in the playoffs why the Padres emptied out the farm for him, tying the MLB postseason record for striking out eight consecutive batters while giving up no runs in both of his appearances. Mason Miller has two amazing pitches — his fastball and his slider — and they both work really well together. This led him to having one of the highest K% in the league at 44.4% in 2025. However, when trying to be a starting pitcher, those pitches might start dominant, but it'd be hard to maintain their effectiveness. His fastball won't reach the same velocity heights as it does now, as starters need to be able to throw more pitches and stretch across multiple innings instead of only throwing all-out for one. The velocity is not going to be sustainable, which means he either needs to throw it slower, or the Padres can expect that his outings won’t be as long as the other starting pitchers, meaning more work for the bullpen. His slider also has the potential to miss, with a BB% of 12.0, good for the bottom 6% of the league. When you only have two effective pitches, and one of them isn’t working, batters are going to know what is coming; regardless of how good that pitch is, batters will be able to adjust and jump on that pitch to cause damage. Mason Miller would need to add another pitch to his arsenal, but last season he only threw a changeup 2% of the time. It'd be a steep learning curve to get that pitch up to par with his others. Not only that, but when you face batters multiple times in an outing, they tend to be very good at adjusting. Going through the batting order multiple times, hitters are more familiar with what is being thrown, and the averages show that they are getting on base more. For pitchers who had three to six pitches within their arsenal: 1 TTO: +0.07 RV/100, .316 wOBA (140K total pitches) 2 TTO: +0.01 RV/100, .318 wOBA (123K total pitches) 3 TTO: -0.35 RV/100, .335 wOBA, (70K total pitches) With fewer pitches, those numbers are only going to go up, meaning Mason Miller will be even less effective as the game goes on as he pushes deeper into a game. Relievers are also being used more now than they were ten years ago. In 2015, Relievers pitched 15,184 innings, while this past season they have pitched 17,863. [Those numbers might be slightly skewed as openers didn’t exist during that time, but that's still a good demonstration of how relievers are still being utilized more than they previously were.] Part of the reason the Miller trade was seen as good for the Padres was that it shortened the game. The Padres got another dominant reliever that would be able to come in and shut down a late inning, putting less pressure on the starting pitching staff. One inning of Mason Miller is worth more than, say, three innings of a No. 3 starter, which would be behind Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove as it currently stands. Miller also has an injury history that can’t be forgotten. In 2023, when he was a starter, he was diagnosed with a mild sprain of the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow, which prompted him to be shut down from throwing. He ended up on the 60-day injured list; once he returned, he transitioned to relief pitching. During his debut before that injury, he threw 15 pitches above 100 MPH across 4 ⅓ innings, which shows that he can maintain that velocity, but it will come with a cost. The best ability is availability, and having someone that can lock down an inning is always going to be valuable come October. On the surface, moving Mason Miller to the starting rotation looks both intriguing and cheap, given the market for starting pitching right now and the Padres' finances, but it becomes far less convincing when you account for what needs to change and what the Padres would need to give up in order to get it. The Padres might be tempted by Mason Miller the starter, but Mason Miller the closer is a known commodity. The Padres need more, not less, of those right now. View the full article

The Twins are well known for drafting high-end collegiate outfield talent during the Falvey regime. Jeremy and Jamie review some of those outfield names to follow for the 2026 MLB Draft.View the full article

At baseball’s winter meetings this week, there has been much ballyhoo about the Twins’ search to add a little power to their lineup. General manager Jeremy Zoll was quoted as saying that the club hopes to add “another bat or two with a little thump, with some impact,” and Dan Hayes reported in the Athletic that the group has shown specific interest in free agents Ryan O’Hearn, Josh Bell, and Rhys Hoskins. Let’s take a look at the case for each of those three hitters, and a few more free agents who qualify as “thump” (skipping over lighter-hitting names like Luis Arraez), using the perceived market for O’Hearn, Bell, and Hoskins as a cap for the type of free agent the Twins could be interested in. Ryan O’Hearn O’Hearn is probably the top remaining free agent at first base after Pete Alonso and Josh Naylor signed. At 32, he was a late bloomer, floundering for years in Kansas City before blossoming into a quality hitter with a .788 OPS (20% above league average) over the last three seasons. He’s left-handed and can play a bit of corner outfield—neither of which is a need for the Twins—and he doesn’t boast huge power numbers (46 home runs over the past three years), but he’s a very dependable bat and plays good first base defense. He’s likely to be paid more than anyone else on this list, so it’s questionable that the Twins will have the spending room to play in his market, but it’s definitely worth exploring. Okay, let’s do some rapid-fire, lower-cost options. Carlos Santana Santana’s 2024 with the Twins was just what they needed, but he’ll be 40 next season. Still, he’s a good defender, and although his offense continues to slip, he’s better against lefties than Kody Clemens (damning with faint praise). He’s viewed as a leader and could have just a little more gas in the tank. Rowdy Tellez If you want homers and only homers, Rowdy is your guy. He’s built like a first baseman of yesteryear, and he’s like Walmart-brand Josh Bell, a first baseman for hire. He’s a league-average bat who doesn’t play good defense and needs a platoon partner against lefties, but he has 25- to 30-homer power. It’s thump. Dominic Smith He’s Tellez with less power but more OBP, but he had a better 2025 with the Giants, and he can pop 15 homers over a full season. In both players’ cases, they would need to be platooned, but if you have seven dollars to find a little hitting, sure. Go for it. Michael Toglia The Rockies thought they had a breakout season in 2024 from Toglia, if you call a breakout being a league-average hitter in Coors with 25 homers, but he was bad in 2025 (and 2023 and 2022). He’s got neutral splits, but he could platoon with Clemens, potentially. Mitch Garver He can’t really catch much anymore, and isn’t more than an emergency option at first base, and also he’s had some questionable comments about the Twins’ decision to choose Ryan Jeffers over him, but with Alex Jackson’s limitations, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to carry a third catcher, and Garver can still hit lefties fine with 15-20 homer power over a full season despite his poor overall numbers last year. Gary Sánchez Same thought process as with Garver, Sánchez doesn’t catch well and is only an emergency first baseman, but he could be a low-cost platoon option, even with his with his neutral career platoon splits. View the full article

Every team must look ahead at all times to remain competitive. Not getting stuck in the past—or, in certain situations, the present—is especially crucial for the Brewers, who aim to compete every year in baseball’s smallest market. Shipping Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to Kansas City for left-handed reliever Ángel Zerpa was their latest forward-thinking move. It was also a reminder that the front office, like most these days, looks well beyond surface-level results when projecting a player’s future performance. The Brewers gave away more 2025 value in the trade than they brought in. Collins and Mears combined for 2.6 rWAR this season, with the former finishing fourth in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Zerpa, meanwhile, contributed just 0.3 rWAR and a 4.18 ERA (99 ERA+) out of the Royals’ bullpen. Despite their recent success, both Collins and Mears had unclear outlooks in Milwaukee. Collins overperformed his expected results based on his quality of contact, and his defense fell off badly in the second half. Mears lost a tick of velocity, leaving him without a fastball that could miss barrels and tanking his strikeout rate. The Brewers, undoubtedly aware of those trends, moved them into lesser roles down the stretch. Collins received just 10 postseason plate appearances, and Mears was omitted from their NLCS roster. Both players might still be viable big-leaguers next year. Even if his hitting regresses, Collins’s plate discipline should still get him on base often, and Mears’s slider is still lethal against right-handed batters. While other players passed the pair on Milwaukee’s depth chart, their respective strengths fit nicely on a Kansas City roster with low-floor outfielders and shaky relievers. Zerpa, meanwhile, is trending more clearly in a positive direction. Whereas Collins’s and Mears’s peripherals suggested their performance was actually slightly below average at the plate and on the mound, Zerpa’s well-above-average 3.38 SIERA and 3.36 DRA (74 DRA-) were career bests. His 117 Stuff+ tied him with new teammate Abner Uribe for 16th among qualified relievers, pointing to his greater potential to be a significant piece moving forward than the players the Brewers gave up. The best pitch in Zerpa’s arsenal is a 96.4-mph sinker. It sinks more than expected from his arm angle, which helped him post an elite 62.3% groundball rate in 2025. Switching his focus to that sinker (at the expense of a four-seamer that also had heavier action than a hitter would anticipate out of the hand, but with a deleterious effect instead of a beneficial one) has been a major change for Zerpa. Here are the inches by which his average movement has varied from the estimated "dead zone" for each flavor of heater for each of the last three years, according to Pitch Leaderboard. Pitch Four-Seamer Sinker Season Horiz. DZ Delta Vert. DZ Delta Horiz. DZ Delta Vert. DZ Delta 2023 0.6 -1.5 0.7 -0.3 2024 -0.3 -2.3 1.5 -1.2 2025 0.2 -2.3 1.8 -1.7 The Brewers like sinkers (especially deceptive ones), so their vision for Zerpa likely centers around keeping things simple and letting that power sinker do most of the work. From there, they should branch out by tweaking the rest of his arsenal to complement his best pitch better. Zerpa will always be a ground-ball pitcher first, but he has good enough stuff to run an above-average strikeout rate. Some pitch models like his slider even more than his sinker. His flat four-seamer can coax swings underneath it at the top of the zone, when set up properly. A sparingly-used changeup has shown flashes of being a decent fourth pitch. Yet, Zerpa’s whiff rate has consistently been among the lowest in baseball since his debut. Those whiffs have not shown up because Zerpa lacks deception. That’s where the Brewers come in, as perhaps the best organization to help him. Their pitching coaches preach the value of masking pitches as effectively as possible out of the hand. It’s why they emphasize throwing multiple fastball variations, and it’s why they often prefer short, tight sliders that hold the same plane as a heater over bigger curveballs. Zerpa’s slider will be a great place for them to start. It evolved into more of a slurve this year, after some mechanical tweaks impacted how he spun the ball. Zerpa threw that more vertical breaking ball more frequently toward the back foot of right-handed hitters, where it induced more rollovers. Their groundball rate against the pitch jumped from 40.1% in 2024 to 62.5% in 2025. However, that newfound movement pushed Zerpa’s breaking ball further into a liminal space when it came to deceiving hitters. It didn’t mirror his fastball out of his hand (like Mears’s or Trevor Megill’s breaking balls), nor did it have the kind of break that could miss bats regardless of tunneling (like Uribe’s or Aaron Ashby’s). Zerpa’s slider has always been easier to pick up than others at release. In the visual below, captured from a right-handed batter’s perspective, the yellow tracer (the slider) immediately separates from the rest of his arsenal. The difference is slightly less perceptible to left-handers, who have a much tougher angle against Zerpa, but it’s still there. Part of the issue is that Zerpa has a relatively wide spread of release points. Most hitters cannot reliably perceive an arm angle difference of a few degrees in real time with the naked eye, but Zerpa’s varies enough based on what kind of pitch he’s throwing that it can become an issue. Pitch Type Arm Angle Sinker 25.9° Slider 33.5° 4-Seam 30.2° Changeup 34.9° Of the 23 pitchers to throw at least 10 innings for the 2025 Brewers, 15 had less than a 3-degree difference between their average arm angle on their primary fastball and their primary breaking ball. Zerpa’s 7.6-degree difference between his sinker and slider would have been the fourth-highest. To make pitch recognition harder for hitters, Zerpa and his new coaches could shorten his slider to a harder pitch with more gyrospin, or develop a cutter as a bridge pitch and mold his breaking ball into a sweeper. The goal should be to focus on what he does best (inducing grounders) and tightening up the rest of his arsenal from there to make him a more well-rounded late-inning reliever. Even if he doesn’t take that next step, Zerpa’s solid peripherals, three years of club control, and the roster flexibility afforded by his remaining option year give him good odds of being more valuable to the Brewers than Collins and Mears would have been. After both had career years, the front office took advantage of the opportunity to cash them in for the kind of reliever they’ve turned into a bullpen weapon several times. View the full article

The offseason in baseball is not just about improving a team through the addition of new players, but also how each franchise handles roster construction and depth through the 40-man roster. Most teams will eventually find themselves in a roster crunch and will be forced to make tough decisions. Ultimately, players who are on the 40-man roster may find themselves traded, waived or even designated for assignment, so that the team can open a roster spot for a new addition. Following the conclusion of the Winter Meetings and the addition of Ryan Watson following the Rule 5 Draft, Boston finds themselves in a situation where their roster currently sits at a full 40 players. Knowing that, here are four players who could see themselves battling it out for one of the final roster spots or be a casualty of the business side of baseball. Tristan Gray Gray was acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays back in November for Luis Guerrero and as of now is likely slated for Triple-A to serve as depth. It would take a fantastic spring training paired with injuries to those ahead of him on the depth chart to get him to break camp with the major-league roster. Gray is known for his power and bat speed along with defensive versatility, but he doesn’t exactly hit the ball often enough to warrant a guaranteed roster spot. Should the Red Sox designate him for assignment, the team might be able to sneak him through waivers and keep him on the Worcester roster. However, at this point of the offseason, it’s possible another team would claim him. David Hamilton Hamilton regressed offensively in 2025 after a 2024 season in which he played a big role on the team by getting starts at second base. Depending on how the Red Sox finish the offseason, they may view Hamilton as being expendable. The infielder isn’t exactly a great hitter, and defensively, he’s average at second base. Really, his key skills are his game altering speed and defensive versatility, but with Nate Eaton on the roster, he may be superfluous. If Hamilton were to be designated for assignment, there is no doubt another team would claim him and use him either as a starting second baseman or a utility infielder. Jordan Hicks This one is more wishful thinking because of Hicks' contract. With two years and $24 million remaining, it’s unlikely the team cuts him and eats that entire contract. They would likely look to trade him first, though should he struggle in 2026, the chances of him being cut begin to grow.. The flamethrowing right-hander struggled after the Rafael Devers trade, and if the team wants to compete for a championship, they can’t keep a reliever around who could cost them games. Hicks would certainly make it through waivers due to his contract, though another team would likely scoop him up quickly afterward for the league minimum. Zack Kelly Kelly’s chances of being cut really depend on how the bullpen shapes up by the end of the offseason. During his time in Boston, Kelly has been two different pitchers. At times, he looks like a reliable shut-down option who could pitch the eighth to get the ball to Aroldis Chapman, and at other times, he looks like he shouldn’t be in the majors. The 2025 campaign was an extremely unlucky season for Kelly, as his ERA was over a full run higher than his xERA; in the second half, he looked much better, tossing 12 2/3 innings and allowing just four earned runs. Being paid just the minimum in 2026, Kelly has a good shot of sticking around due to the cheapness of his contract. He probably wouldn't pass through waivers due to that fact, though. What do you think? Do you think there's another Red Sox player on the roster bubble? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article