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During Ross Atkins’s initial media availability at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, he provided an update about Shane Bieber’s health that left some pundits a bit concerned. Atkins said that Bieber is in a "strong position" physically with a realistic path to Opening Day. Yet, the GM emphasized that the team will be monitoring Bieber week to week and is considering staggering his offseason and spring training workload. That means he may not be 100 percent ready by the start of the regular season. In Atkins's exact words, “As of right now, [Bieber is] in a strong position. And I suppose as he starts to ramp up, we could consider some stagger and the potential of him, you know, not being at 100 percent at the very start, but we’re taking it kind of a week at a time at this point” (via Sportnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith). Bieber’s situation is particularly significant because he is not just any starter. He is the Jays' number three starter and a former Cy Young Award winner who demonstrated he still has what it takes to be a dominant presence in the majors. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024, and his first action since returning to the majors was with the Jays down the stretch. In seven regular season games, Bieber was effective, and his success and reliability helped Toronto get to within a couple of outs of a World Series title. According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, a number of MLB executives were “baffled” by Bieber’s decision to opt in to his $16 million option for 2026. Now, with news of an apparent health issue, that decision might be better understood. According to Rosenthal's colleague Mitch Bannon, Bieber has already started offseason recovery and rehab work as a result of forearm fatigue experienced at the end of the season. If Bieber potentially couldn’t pass a physical, then his decision to opt into a team-friendly deal makes a bit more sense. Forearm fatigue after Tommy John surgery is neither rare nor trivial. The flexor-pronator mass plays an important role in stabilizing the elbow, and its adaptation under game stress takes time. The plan, as laid out by Atkins, calls for the team to monitor Bieber week to week and potentially reduce his spring workload. That aligns with best practices. Whether it is a pitcher or a weekend tennis player, physiology researchers say spacing out high-intensity sessions, tracking recovery markers, and avoiding cumulative stress are key to rehabilitation. By considering early-season pitch count limits and occasional skipped side sessions, the Jays aim to preserve Bieber’s effectiveness across a full season. With that said, forearm injuries can be tricky to resolve. Several top-tier pitchers have dealt with forearm fatigue, including Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, both during their time with the Mets. DeGrom required a second Tommy John surgery in 2023, loosely connected with his forearm fatigue issues. Since his return in late 2024, he has been quite successful. Syndergaard has had several arm issues throughout his career. His arm issues date back to 2014, while in the minors, when he was placed on the injured list for a forearm (flexor-pronator) strain. He missed the entire 2020 season and most of the 2021 season as a result of Tommy John surgery. He did pitch in 2022 and 2023, but hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2023 and is currently a free agent. Kyle Lohse experienced forearm issues during the middle of his career. After his forearm issues were resolved through surgery in 2010, he pitched another four strong seasons for the Cardinals and Brewers. Atkins’s remarks were deliberate and perhaps intended to set the stage should Bieber's rehab not go as planned. He projected confidence in the 2020 AL Cy Young winner's trajectory while avoiding any guarantees, thereby signaling that the organization values flexibility over expediting the rehab. The week-to-week language he used is standard in return-to-play plans, but its presence underscores the Jays’ intent to prioritize quality over quantity during spring training. If Bieber experiences minor setbacks, these comments allow adjustments without framing those setbacks as failures. This is especially important given the late-season forearm fatigue, which typically requires careful management of throw volume, intensity, and recovery windows. While one can only guess, the high-adrenaline and high-intensity outings Bieber pitched in during the stretch run and into the postseason presumably put additional strain on his arm and most likely caused the fatigue. He pitched 40.1 regular season innings and another 18.2 in the postseason, with an ERA under 4.00. News of his upcoming ramp-up further explains the Jays' recent starting pitcher signings. The club signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal and added depth with Cody Ponce. They are continuing to explore additional pitching options. This redundancy will allow them to manage Bieber conservatively without sacrificing early-season competitiveness. If Bieber needs a staggered start or reduced pitch counts in April, the rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Ponce, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos can absorb the load. This depth-first approach isn’t uncommon for teams with postseason aspirations, where marginal gains in pitcher health translate into disproportionate postseason value. The 2026 season will ultimately judge whether the approach being taken by the Jays when it comes to Bieber is correct. Atkins’s Winter Meetings remarks suggest that the Blue Jays understand the terrain. As a former minor league pitcher, Atkins probably understands the situation a little bit better than most. The way he is handling the situation, while frustrating for some fans, is most likely well-received by pitchers in the organization. Prioritizing long-term health over short-term gain can be part of a team’s culture. It might even influence some players to join an organization when they feel it will look after them rather than just use them. When the Jays traded for Bieber, they were hoping he would be able to return to his top form. He certainly demonstrated that he can still pitch at a high level, and now the Jays will ramp him up cautiously in 2026 to ensure he can play a similar role as he did in 2025. With a deep starting rotation that reduces the temptation to rush, the Jays can be cautious with Bieber. That patience could serve them well as the 2026 season unfolds. View the full article

Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic are reporting the Cubs are receiving significant interest on second baseman Nico Hoerner in trade talks. They are clear in that the Cubs are not actively seeking to move the veteran. Hoerner, 28 years old, was signed to a three-year, $35 million extension that runs through the 2026 season, buying out his remaining arbitration years. Over the past two seasons, he has been the Cubs’ everyday second baseman. In 2024, he played 151 games and logged 641 plate appearances with seven home runs, 86 runs scored, and 31 steals, along with a 6.9 percent walk rate and 10.3 percent strikeout rate. His triple slash was .273/.335/.373, with a .313 wOBA and 102 wRC+. In 2025, he appeared in 156 games and 649 plate appearances, again hitting seven home runs with 89 runs scored and 29 steals. He posted a 6.0 percent walk rate, 7.6 percent strikeout rate, a .297/.345/.394 line, .324 wOBA and 109 wRC+, and 4.8 WAR. View the full article

Every year, the fantastic folks at MKE Tailgate and Reporting As Eligible put together a donation drive for Hunger Task Force out of Milwaukee. This year, Brewer Fanatic is joining their commendable effort, and ask that you do the same! This holiday season, Milwaukee's Tailgate and Reporting as Eligible are thrilled to be hosting another virtual food drive on behalf of Hunger Task Force in Milwaukee. This can be an especially challenging season, and this year in particular has been tough for so many. We know that not everyone is in a position to help out on something like this and that there is a lot of competition for your money, but we hope you'll consider giving what you can to this very worthy organization. As with our last couple of drives, we will once again be raffling off a chance to win a pair of tickets as a little added incentive to give. The tickets are for the Packers' last home game of the season against the Baltimore Ravens on either December 27th or 28th. They are in section 118, row 17, between the 35th and 40th yard line, right behind the Packers bench. As you can see for yourself in the attached photo, the view from these seats is spectacular. In order to give and be eligible to win, all you need to do is click here to donate money directly to Hunger Task Force. You will receive one entry for every $20 increment donated, and all you need to do to enter the raffle is email your receipt of donation to us at Milwaukees.tailgate@gmail.com, and we'll take care of the rest. Entry for the raffle will stay open through 5 PM CST on Monday, December 22nd. We will once again be conducting the raffle itself live online, and details for how you can join that video will also be posted here as the date approaches. We'll do the drawing at 6 PM that evening and notify the winner immediately. Thank you in advance for your generosity. You've come through in a big way every time we've done one of these, and we're hoping for an all-time high level of support this time through! Click To Help The Hungry View the full article

Every year, the fantastic folks at MKE Tailgate and Reporting As Eligible put together a donation drive for Hunger Task Force out of Milwaukee. This year, Brewer Fanatic is joining their commendable effort, and ask that you do the same! This holiday season, Milwaukee's Tailgate and Reporting as Eligible are thrilled to be hosting another virtual food drive on behalf of Hunger Task Force in Milwaukee. This can be an especially challenging season, and this year in particular has been tough for so many. We know that not everyone is in a position to help out on something like this and that there is a lot of competition for your money, but we hope you'll consider giving what you can to this very worthy organization. As with our last couple of drives, we will once again be raffling off a chance to win a pair of tickets as a little added incentive to give. The tickets are for the Packers' last home game of the season against the Baltimore Ravens on either December 27th or 28th. They are in section 118, row 17, between the 35th and 40th yard line, right behind the Packers bench. As you can see for yourself in the attached photo, the view from these seats is spectacular. In order to give and be eligible to win, all you need to do is click here to donate money directly to Hunger Task Force. You will receive one entry for every $20 increment donated, and all you need to do to enter the raffle is email your receipt of donation to us at Milwaukees.tailgate@gmail.com, and we'll take care of the rest. Entry for the raffle will stay open through 5 PM CST on Monday, December 22nd. We will once again be conducting the raffle itself live online, and details for how you can join that video will also be posted here as the date approaches. We'll do the drawing at 6 PM that evening and notify the winner immediately. Thank you in advance for your generosity. You've come through in a big way every time we've done one of these, and we're hoping for an all-time high level of support this time through! Click To Help The Hungry View the full article

Ten of the 30 teams who make up MLB have a full 40-man roster. Eight more have 39 players on that reserve list, and six more have 38. The other six teams break down as follows: Yankees, Padres, 36; Phillies, Rangers, Angels, 35; Cubs, 31. Chicago not only has fewer players on their big-league roster than any of their 29 competitors, but four fewer than the trio of teams who would otherwise represent the extreme low end of the distribution. Having that many vacancies provides lots of flexibility, but it also stands as a reminder of how much work lies ahead of Jed Hoyer this winter. The circumstance is a result of the team having lost a startling number of players to free agency—Kyle Tucker, Willi Castro, Justin Turner, Carlos Santana, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Brad Keller, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale and Reese McGuire all finished the season with the team but were eligible for free agency after the World Series or (in McGuire's case) were non-tendered last month. However, it's also a result of the team's failure to build a deep farm system. Chicago left several players off their 40-man roster when the deadline came to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, but when that draft happened Wednesday, they didn't lose any of the guys in question. Even some of the players who are currently on the roster (James Triantos, Pedro Ramirez, Riley Martin, Luke Little, Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, Jack Neely) are fringe pieces with little immediate value to the parent club, and a few more (Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Owen Caissie, Moisés Ballesteros, Kevin Alcántara) either haven't yet gotten a chance to prove themselves or have seemed not to have the full confidence of the organization. Where there should be robust reserves of homegrown talent to reinforce the roster, right now, there are blank spaces. Again, that has its upsides. The Cubs signed right-handed reliever Collin Snider to a minor-league deal Wednesday. Snider, 30, is a funky, low-slot hurler who could become the 2026 answer to Tyson Miller in the Chicago pen. They were in good position to land him on such a deal, because with all that open space, Snider can reasonably expect that there will be a 40-man spot for him to win if he shows well during spring training. The Cubs can also take on players on a trade partner's 40-man roster, if needed, without needing to shuffle as much or remove players from their own roster the way other teams might. Generally, though, the Cubs have let the opportunities afforded by keeping a skeleton crew in November and December drift by. They didn't trade for any prospects who needed to be added to overstuffed 40-man rosters last month, or snap up anyone who stood to be non-tendered because of another club's roster crunch. They also, downright stunningly, didn't take anyone in Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft. They're actively choosing to hold open so many roster spots that it's conspicuous, despite having a very limited set of non-roster players with any real upside for 2026. In other words, the team is setting itself up for a spending spree in free agency—but also leaving themselves no other choice. Though the internal preference of the front office is to add top-flight pitching via trade, rather than via free agency, any deal that would net them the caliber of player they're looking for would have to include one of Matt Shaw, Ballesteros, Caissie, or Alcántara. They've talked to other teams about various deals that would send out Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, or Ben Brown. By not snatching up players via waiver claims, trades or the Rule 5, Hoyer and company have eschewed chances to chart a more balanced course through the offseason. At this point, the Cubs will almost surely sign at least four more players to big-league deals this winter. That's good news, and so is the underlying reason why they're doing this: they have set high goals for the player types they hope will fill those slots. The team is pursuing above-average starting pitchers, high-leverage reliever candidates, and top-tier bats. They've been active in trade talks regarding MacKenzie Gore and Edward Cabrera, and they've talked to Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. They've extensively scouted Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, and talked to the representatives for all three. They're hunting serious, impactful talent. The risk, however, is obvious. Those nine open places on the roster speak to the thinness of the organization and the difficulty the team will have in maintaining leverage, should any more of their top targets come off the board before they begin to flesh themselves out. This is a highwire act of a hot stove strategy. Hoyer will be active; there will be headline-grabbing moves. However, the Cubs have cornered themselves a bit, and getting better will be an expensive endeavor because of the more cost-effective opportunities they've chosen not to pursue. View the full article

Katie Woo and Fabian A, writing for The Athletic, reported that the Royals are interested in slugging Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. Interested in learning more about Hernandez? Read our in-depth write-up on him as a trade candidate. Before the 2024 season, Hernandez signed a one-year, $23.5 million contract with Los Angeles. After the season, he declined the club’s qualifying offer and became a free agent. In early January 2025, he rejoined the Dodgers on a three-year, $66 million contract that runs through 2027, with a $15 million club option for 2028. In 2024, with the Dodgers, he appeared in 154 games and logged 652 plate appearances, hitting .272/.339/.501 with 33 home runs. In 2025, he played 134 games and collected 546 plate appearances, hitting .247/.284/.454 with 25 home runs, a 4.8 percent walk rate, a 24.5 percent strikeout rate, an .207 isolated power, and a .315 wOBA with a 102 wRC+. View the full article

With the Winter Meetings out of the way, there will be lots of opportunities for baseball matchmaking to occur. With Carlos Correa long out the door, the Minnesota Twins could turn their attention to another shortstop on the trade market to bolster their current infield core. Rumors around the Washington Nationals have been heavy, and many of those rumblings have centered on the club's current shortstop, CJ Abrams. Abrams is a player who could help the Twins achieve their short- and long-term roster goals. As it stands, the Twins are short on major-league experience at each of their infield positions. Abrams debuted in 2022 and since then, he's played in the majority of three major-league seasons. While Abrams would have the most experience under his belt of anyone currently in Minnesota if he joined the Twins roster, he is also only 25 years old; is hitting his first year of arbitration; and very well could grow with the other young players in the Twins system. Abrams is coming off his best season of offensive production, wherein he hit .257/.315/.433 and launched 19 home runs. Twins shortstops, meanwhile, hit .251/.307/.380 and managed just 17 home runs. Abrams would be able to provide improved offensive production at a prime defensive position. Whoever acquires Abrams would hope his growth and increased production continue—although they'll also need to reckon with the need to move him off shortstop. Abrams also fits the mold of “younger and faster,” if the Twins want to continue leaning into the increased baserunning aggressiveness they displayed toward the end of 2025. In the past three seasons, Abrams has stolen 47, 31, and 31 bases. Adding him would bring a well-established base-stealing threat to the Twins roster. Statcast tracked Abrams at 28.2 ft/s in sprint speed, and he was worth 7 baserunning runs, according to Baseball Savant. Defense is the bugaboo. Abrams has not been a good defender at the shortstop position, no matter the metric you look at. He produced -5 Defensive Runs Saved and -9 Outs Above Average this past season. The OAA metric was actually an improvement over a -14 in 2024. Shortstop wouldn’t have to be Abrams's position with the Twins, though, as Brooks Lee could continue to be penciled in at that spot. Lee turned in -1 OAA with an extended run after the Correa trade. If defense is a priority, moving Abrams to third (or second) is a real possibility. Regardless of the position Abrams would fill with the Twins, adding him would create a logjam in the infield, unless one of those current infielders is part of the package that fetches the young shortstop. While the Derek Shelton hire has seemed positive for Royce Lewis, the mercurial infielder has not been shy about expressing his displeasure with the direction of the clubhouse in the past. Overall, Lewis’s production has only trended downward since he entered the league. He did rebound in the second half of the season and posted a .723 OPS, giving some optimism for 2026. A trade for Abrams could provide a perfect opportunity to give Lewis a change of scenery and truly revitalize his career. It also points to the sort of "MLB player-for-MLB player" trade that Derek Falvey mentioned is more likely this time of year—not unlike Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. If they trade Abrams, the Nationals will certainly want to reload their own lineup, and Lewis would give them someone who has produced in the majors and is still on the front end of his career. The Twins could then play Lee and Abrams on the left side of the infield. Willy Adames was also traded when he was 25. The then-Ray was traded (along with relief pitcher Trevor Richards) to the Brewers for pitchers J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. With that as a deal to compare potential value in an Abrams deal, and the reality that there may be some legitimate competition for Abrams, the Twins would need to kick a significant prospect into the deal in addition to Lewis. The Twins do have enough prospects to get the deal done while keeping Lewis, if they choose to go that route. If they did so, they would just need to get creative with the infield. Luke Keaschall would be able to shift to first base or even be a right-handed option for the outfield. It doesn’t create the most straightforward path to opportunities for each player and their development, but it could be accomplished. A challenge-plus trade makes the most sense, though. Washington could roll the dice on Lewis, while the Twins get better immediately and leverage their strong farm system to make the upgrade from Lewis to Abrams. The Twins need to give their lineup a shot in the arm, and a young, dynamic player like Abrams could provide that. Best-case, the Twins catch a player (like the Brewers did with Adames) hitting the prime of his career. Carlos Correa's signing(s) didn't quite deliver the high-impact, prime-aged infield dynamism the team expected. This kind of trade could do so. View the full article

While a need for starting pitching will grab headlines, we shouldn't forget that there is more work to do for A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres this offseason. Among their quieter needs this winter is the one that exists behind the plate. As things stand right now, Freddy Fermin will be the team's starting catcher in 2026. There isn't any reason to expect a change there, either. The team sent Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert to the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline. Given that both would be worthwhile depth arms in this rotation right now, the intent was always for Fermin to handle the top gig ahead of next season. Given the current roster construction, Luis Campusano will handle No. 2 duties. The team had been reluctant to give him much of a run due to some inefficiencies in working as a defensive catcher despite the upside he presents with the bat. Now out of options, the team has been forced into a scenario where they either give him run or look to move him. With top prospect Ethan Salas still a ways away, the backup spot is Campusano's to lose. Either way, the current duo looks to be an upgrade over the two the team started with last year when they brought Elías Díaz back on a one-year deal and signed Martín Maldonado to a non-guaranteed contract ahead of spring training. Neither provided much of anything on offense and each demonstrated various shortcomings defensively that negatively impacted the pitching staff. But even with a more formidable pair, there are some options that could allow the Padres to not only shore up their depth behind the plate but upgrade the roster depth, too. Names certainly abound, at least. Someone like Reese McGuire is a logical player that fits in here. McGuire turned in a strong framing season for the Chicago Cubs last year (3 Framing Runs) while providing steady power for a backup catcher (.218 ISO). Former Minnesota Twin Christian Vázquez doesn't give you that same pop, but has historically graded as a capable defensive backstop (2 Framing Runs in 2025). A name like Danny Jansen pops on the other side of the spectrum. His defensive output has taken a step back in recent years, but there's some decent offensive upside still within the context of that type of role. Even someone like Jonah Heim has a decent-enough track record (107 wRC+ in 2023) that you could pursue him for a one-year bounce back. Options aren't limited to the free-agent market, either. Escondido native Korey Lee is third on the Chicago White Sox's depth chart behind a pair of young catchers that the team is clearly prioritizing. The St. Louis Cardinals have a handful of options in something of a logjam they could seek to clear (Pedro Pagés, Yohel Pozo, Jimmy Crooks) in favor of even more depth within their minor-league system. The point is that there are options here for the San Diego Padres. Not that they're alone in such a pursuit, but when you're operating within a tight budget without much to trade in the way of prospects, you like that this type of volume exists, epecially considering the way it could impact the roster outside of the position. Let's say the Padres really are hesitant to give even backup reps to Campusano behind the plate. Rather than shoehorn him into a role for which he may not be well-suited, you bring in a new No. 2 catcher. From there, Campusano becomes more of a right-handed compliment as a designated hitter or first baseman for Gavin Sheets. He becomes the matchup play in a way that allows you to maximize his most important asset: the bat. It's a path toward the Padres improving their roster in a way that a team short on resources can actually pull off. At the very least, you want a veteran third-stringer in the organization so that you have that coverage. Even if Campusano is capable of holding down the spot behind Fermin, you're in a bad way should anything happen to them on the health front. So, even if it's a move made purely out of a depth pursuit rather than one that indicates a shifting role for Campusano, it's a necessary one for the Padres. Luckily, that volume exists. It doesn't have to be the priority at this point in the offseason. But it's not something we should overlook as the winter wears on. View the full article

Owen and Jessie examine the MLB Winter Meetings, which saw some star players move off the board, but the Blue Jays sat out most of the action this year, signing only reliever Cody Ponce to a three-year deal. But several rumors emerged out of the meetings, and the Jays are still looking to add. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jays-centre-podcast/id1846108462 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Bi7SzfpcqMo5xYWnbCeoL Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-jays-centre-podcast-300304824/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/2qk9wqxd Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@jayscentre View the full article

The much-anticipated MLB Draft Lottery has come and gone. The Twins did not get the best-case scenario: they moved down one spot and were given the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. While not ideal, 3rd is still not a terrible place for the Twins to pick in next year's draft, and draft experts Jamie Cameron and Jeremy Nygaard explain why. View the full article

David Popkins’ 2024 season in Minnesota ended with a thud, but his work in 2025 has now earned him one of baseball’s most notable coaching honors. Baseball America named Popkins its MLB Coach of the Year, highlighting a philosophy that has resonated across one of the league’s most improved offenses. For a coach who was dismissed after Minnesota’s late-season collapse, the honor marks a dramatic reversal in how his skill set is viewed across the sport. Baseball America emphasized that Popkins’ entire approach revolves around problem-solving. He believes that every hitter presents a unique puzzle. By identifying the underlying issue and drawing on a wide range of systems and instructors, he can craft individualized solutions. The publication credited this method with laying the foundation for Toronto’s offensive revival, noting that many players described his teaching style as both modern and deeply adaptable. The Twins did not get to see that evolution firsthand. Popkins was one of four coaches dismissed following Minnesota’s disappointing finish in 2024. This group also included assistant hitting coaches Derek Shomon and Rudy Hernandez, as well as assistant bench and infield coach Tony Diaz. General manager Thad Levine was also let go in the same sweep. According to reporting from The Athletic, Popkins even held early-season discussions about a contract extension, but the talks never progressed. When the offense unraveled down the stretch of an injury-riddled season, he was left as one of the clearest scapegoats. What happened next showed how highly the rest of the league regarded him. Popkins received calls from three teams within hours of his dismissal, and the Toronto Blue Jays moved quickly to bring him aboard. The fit proved immediate and impactful. His communication style meshed well with a clubhouse seeking a new direction after its own disappointing offensive year. Under his guidance, veterans and young players alike found renewed confidence. George Springer became the most prominent example. At 35 and coming off a decline in production, Springer looked rejuvenated with Popkins’ help, finishing the year with a 161 OPS+. Toronto finished the regular season third in baseball in OPS, fourth in runs scored, and fifth in xwOBA. The turnaround pushed the Blue Jays all the way to the brink of their first World Series title since 1993. Players and team officials repeatedly pointed to Popkins’ influence as a key reason for their sustained improvement. For the Twins, the award serves as a reminder of what might have been. For Popkins, it is proof that his approach works when given trust and time. His journey from early-season extension talks to post-collapse dismissal to industry-wide acclaim in just over a year is one of the more remarkable coaching arcs in recent memory. View the full article

For those of you who haven’t heard of it before, ZiPS is a fun projection system that Dan Szymborski, senior writer at FanGraphs, built to predict how teams and players will do in the upcoming year. It has been around for more than 20 years, and Szymborski's write-ups of the results have become an annual tradition. If you’re curious about the origin of ZiPS and how it works, check out his introduction for this year’s set of predictions. Szymborski released his projections for the Brewers a few days ago, and as always, it’s quite comprehensive. It’s easy to get lost in the sea of numbers, and for those who don't have time to dive deep, I wanted to point out some of the highlights. First, it’s important to acknowledge that it is difficult to predict the future. While ZiPS has been remarkably accurate in the long run and over large samples, it’s not perfect. The system is based on data, so it’s not pure guesswork, but anomalous teams like the Brewers tend to exceed expectations quite a bit. That’s why Milwaukee was estimated to win just 86-90 games in 2025, but actually won 97. Secondly, the Brewers are especially frustrating because ZiPS depends heavily on estimating how much certain individuals play and Milwaukee almost always deploys unexpected players to great effect. Szymborski says as much in his most recent write-up: This year, ZiPS is slightly more optimistic about next season, projecting the Brewers to win between 86 and 94 games. That's a solid start, but Szymborski also notes that their team floor is incredibly high. They may not reach the same heights as they did this season, but they're certainly the favorites to win the NL Central again. However, there are some question marks—the biggest, perhaps, being Andrew Vaughn. By now, we’re all aware of the sudden transformation from draft bust to unstoppable power hitter Vaughn achieved after being acquired by Milwaukee, but it remains to be seen whether that was a fluke or real change. ZiPS thinks it’s the former, projecting him to slash .244/.305/.413 over 577 plate appearances for a lackluster 99 OPS+. The projection system loves the other eight starters in the lineup, projecting them to be worth 2-3 WAR each. (Note: ZiPS uses its own WAR metric, sometimes referred to as zWAR. This is different from the more common rWAR and fWAR metrics.) Interestingly, despite making massive offensive strides this year and posting a 121 OPS+ for the season, Brice Turang is projected to regress back to a 99 OPS+. In defense of the system, Turang's first two years are still a drag on his career numbers, such that he only has a 93 OPS+ as a big-leaguer. ZiPS is also confident that Joey Ortiz is much better than the 66 OPS+ he posted last season. Ortiz is projected to return to form and post a 90 OPS+, still below average, but a big step forward—and a solid mark for a shortstop. The system has also turned a corner on Caleb Durbin. In 2025, Durbin was projected to post a 90 OPS+ while being slightly below average on defense. In 2026, he’s now expected to post a 99 OPS+, while being an above-average defender. Further down the depth chart, the projection system is extremely bullish on both Jesús Made and Cooper Pratt being ready for the majors very soon. Made already has the reputation of a top prospect in all of baseball, but Pratt’s 2025 season didn’t quite live up to the hype. He posted a .691 OPS over 527 plate appearances with Double-A Biloxi, but ZiPS remains optimistic about his future contributions to the team. When it comes to the team’s pitching, the projection system agrees with what many have been saying, which is that in the absence of one or two dominant starters, the Brewers have created a group of eight pitchers who could slot into the rotation without too much issue. ZiPS expects Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Tobias Myers to be the sixth, seventh, and eighth options, respectively. This falls in line with how they were used throughout 2025. The Brewers are also projected to have an elite bullpen ERA. Trevor Megill had the best projected FIP of any reliever at just 3.21, but in the event that he’s traded this offseason, Abner Uribe is a very close second with a projected FIP of 3.33 and a slightly better ERA+ of 134 (to Megill’s 132). As usual, it’s clear that Milwaukee’s strength is being more well-rounded than a perfect snowball. In a day and age wherein it seems like baseball wins are bought more than they are earned, the Brewers continue to be an example of how to be successful on a relatively shoestring budget. They’re so cutting-edge that even projection systems have a hard time fairly evaluating them. Despite humanity’s best efforts to predict the future, time remains the ultimate deciding factor. It would be shocking if the Brewers failed to meet their expectations; it’s more likely that they’ll exceed them. However, injuries happen, and baseball is rife with chaos and entropy. We’ll just have to see how the cookies crumble. In the meantime, we can only hope the organization does what it needs to build an even stronger roster. View the full article

I want the 2026 Chicago Cubs pitching staff to become "King of the Pop-Up". I admit, it sounds a little less sexy than becoming "King of the Strikeouts" (or for any Tim Robinson fans out there, Rog, the "King of the Slams") and frankly, a pop-up is just less exciting. There is a reason that, in the movie Major League in the penultimate scene, Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn gets Clu Heywood to strike out on a 99-mph fastball instead of inducing a weak can-of-corn to the first baseman; it'd be hard for audiences to go crazy about that. And yet, I'm here to tell you that, in a baseball-sense, it would have made no difference, and that getting a "Texas Leaguer" is basically the same as a powerful punchout. First, we should look just how devastating a pop-up actually is. Using MLB's Baseball Savant, there were 8,716 balls-in-play during the 2025 season that were classified as pop-ups fielded by an infielder. Of those 8,716 pop-ups, just 71 landed for a hit. What this means is that if you hit a pop-up on the in-field, it is the most guaranteed form of out one can imagine, at least from balls put in play. It may not look devastating — a baseball flying just 50 feet in distance, landing safely in the second baseman's webbed glove is kind of boring in real time — but in terms of getting an out? It's absolutely devious. Now, I can already hear the counterargument, "but a player can make an error." So, I'm going to push my (non-existent) glasses up on my nose and give you my best "uhm, actually" to point out this: There were only 20 errors in the league on those 8,716 balls in play. This means just 91 hitters found any way to reach base on an infield pop-up last season. This gives teams a 99% chance of recording an out on a pop-up — it's a near-guarantee. As I said: it's truly a fatal to a hitter. Further comparing it to a strikeout, lest us not forget about dumbest of all rules: the dreaded dropped-third-strike. That rule proves that not even a strikeout is immune to a player getting on base. In an article by Sam Miller, he outlines how many dropped-third-strikes happen on a year-to-year-basis; a strikeout is not a guaranteed out either, and by July of 2025, there were already 29 instances of a player reaching first on a K. In 2024, this number was 50, which is not many more than the pop-up. It's true, that there are far more instances of strikeouts, but in total, hitting a pop-up is just shy of a guaranteed out in a very similar way the strikeout is. Enter the Chicago Cubs. In 2025, the Cubs were second in baseball (behind the Minnesota Twins), inducing 345 infield pop-ups on the season. This included the seventh-best pop-up inducer in Matthew Boyd, the 13th-best in Shota Imanaga, the 19th-best in Colin Rea, and the 29th-best in Jameson Taillon. You'll note that two of these three were new additions to the team, and Taillon worked extensively on his pitch repertoire last year. The Cubs, as a team, use cutting motions on their fastballs, almost more than any other organization, which likely leads to the extensive pop-up heavy approach; they just have that added movement which misses barrels. The Cubs should improve on their pop-up-generation in 2026 simply by having their stalwart, Justin Steele, healthy. The left-handed pitcher has been a very reliable pop-up getter, ranking 70th of 361 pitchers between 2022 and 2024. While Steele may not be the master of his craft as much as Matthew Boyd of Shota Imanaga are, he uses a cut-ride fastball that is useful in this area. Why are pop-ups important? Well, our advanced metrics don't take them into account currently. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which has become the basis of a lot of our advanced data on pitching, does not take batted ball data (such as pop-ups or ground balls) into it's equation, focusing heavily on strikeouts, walks and home runs. As FIP has become more popular, "FIP-beater" profiles, or pitchers who routinely post lower ERAs than their FIPs would suggest them capable of, have become an undervalued property at times. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of a FIP-beater; someone who threw a slew of strikes, generated abundant groundballs, and didn't walk hitters proved that this combination was effective here. Guys who induce a lot of pop-ups just may be the next "FIP-beater" out there. Last year, the Cubs were one of the biggest "FIP-beaters" as a team in the league, finishing ninth in baseball with a 3.81 ERA but just 20th (4.16) in FIP and 18th (4.16) in xFIP. Part of this is that the Cubs have a great defense, ranking among the top three in almost any category you can think of. But the team is just 25th in ground-ball rate, and this is generally a part of the "FIP-beater" profile. How do they achieve this? Well, in part, due to their innate ability to get hitters to get under the ball and hit weak pop flies. Getting even more Texas Leaguers is a way the Cubs can close the strikeout gap they currently face. Last year, the Cubs ranked just 27th in total strikeouts (1,271) and 21st in strikeout rate. Compare that to, say, the Yankees, who were fourth in total strikeouts (1,440) and seventh in K%. When we include the near-guaranteed out of a popup into the "easy out" equation, the Cubs close the gap from a difference of 281 to 205 — a healthy reduction. This isn't to say the Cubs don't still need to find swing-and-miss, but finding more pop-outs can also help to close the gap in terms of "guaranteed outs". This may be a way to figure out which pitchers on the current market appeal to the team. Michael King, in his healthy 2024 campaign, induced the 25th most pop-ups in baseball. He's been routinely connected to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, and while it's unlikely that the primary reason is his ability to generate pop-ups, that almost assuredly appeals to the team. Another starting pitcher who induces a lot of pop-ups? The Minnesota Twins' Joe Ryan, who is rumored to be among those who could be traded this offseason. Using the same properties, relievers Kenley Jansen and Ryne Stanek (of whom we reported recently that the Cubs do have interest in) have history of creating a lot of pop-ups and could interest the team. Caleb Thielbar as well could be a candidate for a reunion, based on his history with the team and his history with the pop-out. This obviously won't be the only factor a team like the Cubs will taken into account, but as we look for under-the-radar pickups, it's clear that this can matter in player evaluation. Ultimately, the pop-out is a boring version of an out; a hitter meekly hits a ball in the air a relatively short-distance and a defender camps out under it and catches it with ease. It doesn't have the same panache as an overbearing 99-mph heater, and a defensive player isn't tasked with doing some amazing. It's a play that literally results in an out at the major-league level 99% of the time, but one we generally have ignored as a viable way of limiting base runners. The Cubs cannot just get pop-outs, but they can look to add more of them coupled with swing-and-miss options. For a team who has a bunch of pitching to add, finding a few cheap pop-out getters is a way the team can continue to defeat its FIP reliably. What do you think of the pop-out? Do you think more teams need to embrace it as a legitimate way to get outs? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article

I want the 2026 Chicago Cubs pitching staff to become "King of the Pop-Up". I admit, it sounds a little less sexy than becoming "King of the Strikeouts" (or for any Tim Robinson fans out there, Rog, the "King of the Slams") and frankly, a pop-up is just less exciting. There is a reason that, in the movie Major League in the penultimate scene, Ricky "Wild Thing" Vaughn gets Clu Heywood to strike out on a 99-mph fastball instead of inducing a weak can-of-corn to the first baseman; it'd be hard for audiences to go crazy about that. And yet, I'm here to tell you that, in a baseball-sense, it would have made no difference, and that getting a "Texas Leaguer" is basically the same as a powerful punchout. First, we should look just how devastating a pop-up actually is. Using MLB's Baseball Savant, there were 8,716 balls-in-play during the 2025 season that were classified as pop-ups fielded by an infielder. Of those 8,716 pop-ups, just 71 landed for a hit. What this means is that if you hit a pop-up on the in-field, it is the most guaranteed form of out one can imagine, at least from balls put in play. It may not look devastating — a baseball flying just 50 feet in distance, landing safely in the second baseman's webbed glove is kind of boring in real time — but in terms of getting an out? It's absolutely devious. Now, I can already hear the counterargument, "but a player can make an error." So, I'm going to push my (non-existent) glasses up on my nose and give you my best "uhm, actually" to point out this: There were only 20 errors in the league on those 8,716 balls in play. This means just 91 hitters found any way to reach base on an infield pop-up last season. This gives teams a 99% chance of recording an out on a pop-up — it's a near-guarantee. As I said: it's truly a fatal to a hitter. Further comparing it to a strikeout, lest us not forget about dumbest of all rules: the dreaded dropped-third-strike. That rule proves that not even a strikeout is immune to a player getting on base. In an article by Sam Miller, he outlines how many dropped-third-strikes happen on a year-to-year-basis; a strikeout is not a guaranteed out either, and by July of 2025, there were already 29 instances of a player reaching first on a K. In 2024, this number was 50, which is not many more than the pop-up. It's true, that there are far more instances of strikeouts, but in total, hitting a pop-up is just shy of a guaranteed out in a very similar way the strikeout is. Enter the Chicago Cubs. In 2025, the Cubs were second in baseball (behind the Minnesota Twins), inducing 345 infield pop-ups on the season. This included the seventh-best pop-up inducer in Matthew Boyd, the 13th-best in Shota Imanaga, the 19th-best in Colin Rea, and the 29th-best in Jameson Taillon. You'll note that two of these three were new additions to the team, and Taillon worked extensively on his pitch repertoire last year. The Cubs, as a team, use cutting motions on their fastballs, almost more than any other organization, which likely leads to the extensive pop-up heavy approach; they just have that added movement which misses barrels. The Cubs should improve on their pop-up-generation in 2026 simply by having their stalwart, Justin Steele, healthy. The left-handed pitcher has been a very reliable pop-up getter, ranking 70th of 361 pitchers between 2022 and 2024. While Steele may not be the master of his craft as much as Matthew Boyd of Shota Imanaga are, he uses a cut-ride fastball that is useful in this area. Why are pop-ups important? Well, our advanced metrics don't take them into account currently. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which has become the basis of a lot of our advanced data on pitching, does not take batted ball data (such as pop-ups or ground balls) into it's equation, focusing heavily on strikeouts, walks and home runs. As FIP has become more popular, "FIP-beater" profiles, or pitchers who routinely post lower ERAs than their FIPs would suggest them capable of, have become an undervalued property at times. Kyle Hendricks is a great example of a FIP-beater; someone who threw a slew of strikes, generated abundant groundballs, and didn't walk hitters proved that this combination was effective here. Guys who induce a lot of pop-ups just may be the next "FIP-beater" out there. Last year, the Cubs were one of the biggest "FIP-beaters" as a team in the league, finishing ninth in baseball with a 3.81 ERA but just 20th (4.16) in FIP and 18th (4.16) in xFIP. Part of this is that the Cubs have a great defense, ranking among the top three in almost any category you can think of. But the team is just 25th in ground-ball rate, and this is generally a part of the "FIP-beater" profile. How do they achieve this? Well, in part, due to their innate ability to get hitters to get under the ball and hit weak pop flies. Getting even more Texas Leaguers is a way the Cubs can close the strikeout gap they currently face. Last year, the Cubs ranked just 27th in total strikeouts (1,271) and 21st in strikeout rate. Compare that to, say, the Yankees, who were fourth in total strikeouts (1,440) and seventh in K%. When we include the near-guaranteed out of a popup into the "easy out" equation, the Cubs close the gap from a difference of 281 to 205 — a healthy reduction. This isn't to say the Cubs don't still need to find swing-and-miss, but finding more pop-outs can also help to close the gap in terms of "guaranteed outs". This may be a way to figure out which pitchers on the current market appeal to the team. Michael King, in his healthy 2024 campaign, induced the 25th most pop-ups in baseball. He's been routinely connected to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, and while it's unlikely that the primary reason is his ability to generate pop-ups, that almost assuredly appeals to the team. Another starting pitcher who induces a lot of pop-ups? The Minnesota Twins' Joe Ryan, who is rumored to be among those who could be traded this offseason. Using the same properties, relievers Kenley Jansen and Ryne Stanek (of whom we reported recently that the Cubs do have interest in) have history of creating a lot of pop-ups and could interest the team. Caleb Thielbar as well could be a candidate for a reunion, based on his history with the team and his history with the pop-out. This obviously won't be the only factor a team like the Cubs will taken into account, but as we look for under-the-radar pickups, it's clear that this can matter in player evaluation. Ultimately, the pop-out is a boring version of an out; a hitter meekly hits a ball in the air a relatively short-distance and a defender camps out under it and catches it with ease. It doesn't have the same panache as an overbearing 99-mph heater, and a defensive player isn't tasked with doing some amazing. It's a play that literally results in an out at the major-league level 99% of the time, but one we generally have ignored as a viable way of limiting base runners. The Cubs cannot just get pop-outs, but they can look to add more of them coupled with swing-and-miss options. For a team who has a bunch of pitching to add, finding a few cheap pop-out getters is a way the team can continue to defeat its FIP reliably. What do you think of the pop-out? Do you think more teams need to embrace it as a legitimate way to get outs? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article

Priority number one for Royals GM JJ Picollo has been acquiring a couple of outfielders to boost the lineup in 2026. He made that clear in many interviews during the Winter Meetings in Orlando this week, pointing out that they would hit the free-agent and trade markets this winter to accomplish those goals. However, that isn't the lone need roster-wise this offseason. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, Kansas City is also interested in acquiring a left-handed reliever who can specialize in getting left-handed hitters out. The Royals currently have three lefties projected to be in the bullpen on Opening Day in 2026, according to Roster Resource: Angel Zerpa, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, based on Rogers' report, it seems like the Royals are looking for a boost in left-handed relief, or they could be on the verge of trading one of those three this offseason to acquire a much-needed bat. There aren't a ton of left-handed relief options on the free-agent market, according to Spotrac. The highest-profile lefty relievers in terms of market value are Caleb Thielbar ($5.4 million), Brent Suter ($4.4 million), Danny Coulombe ($4.3 million), and Andrew Chafin ($4.2 million). The youngest in the group is Chafin, who is 35. Hence, many of the lefties they could acquire on the free-agent market will not just be expensive but may not be worth more than a one-year deal, given their ages. One out-of-the-box option could be Foster Griffin, a former Royals draft pick who has spent the last three years in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) with the Tokyo Giants. After posting a 1.62 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 1.78 FIP in 78 IP with the Giants last season, Griffin announced his intention to return to Major League Baseball in 2026. Given his time in Japan, it isn't easy to gauge his value or the interest of other teams this offseason. However, Griffin could be the lefty that the Royals desire this offseason, and he could also hold some long-term value as well, as he is just 30 years old. Let's dive into Griffin's background, both in the States and Japan, and what he could bring to the Royals' pitching staff next season. Former Royals First Round Pick Struggled With Injury and Generating Strikeouts Griffin has a long history with the Royals, as he was drafted 28th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft. The tall, projectable lefty, drafted out of The First Academy in Florida, had a rocky start in the Royals' system. Initially, Griffin struggled to strike batters out at each level in the Royals' farm system. From 2014 to 2017, across Rookie to Double-A ball, he posted a K rate over 20% just once (26.1% in High-A in 2017). As a result, his ERA numbers fluctuated over those four years. In 2014, he posted a 3.21 ERA in 28 IP in Rookie ball. In 2015, he had a 5.44 ERA in 102.2 IP in Low-A ball. In 2016, he had a 5.43 ERA in 132.2 IP across Low-A and High-A ball. And in 2017, his best season in the Minor Leagues at that point in his career, he put up a 3.35 ERA in 161.1 IP across the High-A and Double-A levels. His strong performance earned him a spot in the Futures game that season in Miami. When the strikeouts have been up, better results have tended to follow for Griffin in the Minor Leagues. In 2020, during the COVID pandemic, Griffin made his MLB debut. However, he suffered an elbow injury in his first career appearance (1.2 IP), and he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after. The lefty was able to return in 2021, posting a 3.81 ERA, 23.1% K rate, and 1.29 WHIP in 52 IP in the Minor Leagues that season (which spanned from the Low-A to Triple-A levels). Griffin was able to make his way back to the Royals in 2022 after posting a 1.93 ERA and 29.4% K rate in Triple-A Omaha. However, his return to the big leagues was difficult, as he posted a 12.46 ERA, 5.65 FIP, and -8.3 K-BB%. As a result, the Royals designated him for assignment, and he was traded to the Blue Jays for right-handed pitcher Jonatan Bernal. Griffin primarily pitched in Triple-A Buffalo for the Blue Jays organization, posting a 2.31 ERA, 24.8% K rate, and 3.21 FIP in 23 IP. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough for him to earn much of a chance in Toronto, as he only made one appearance with the Blue Jays. When looking at his metrics via TJ Stats, Griffin leaned heavily on his cutter at the Major League level with mixed results. Between 6.1 IP with the Royals and Blue Jays, Griffin posted a 97 TJ Stuff+ overall. His cutter rated as his best pitch overall with a 102 TJ Stuff+, 56 grade, and 71.4% zone rate. While he did flood the zone well (54.1% overall zone rate), he struggled to generate chase (15.7%), whiff (25%), and gave up a lot of hard contact (.453 xwOBACON). As a result of these mediocre metrics, the Blue Jays released him at the conclusion of the 2022 season, and he signed with the Yomiuri Giants of the NPB (based in Tokyo). Turning Things Around in Tokyo With the Yomiuri Giants The move to Japan was a revelation for Griffin, who became a bona fide ace in his three seasons with the Giants. In 54 appearances and 315.2 IP with the Giants, he posted a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 4.55 K/BB ratio. He showcased excellent command with Yomiuri and limited the long ball in his tenure in the NPB. He posted HR/FB rates of 8.6% and 9.3% in 2023 and 2024 before posting a NPB career-low rate of 1.6%. Griffin also did an excellent job of not just limiting home runs but also inducing strong groundball rates with the Giants. That is evidenced by his 53.3%, 47.8%, and 48.9% groundball rates in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The strikeouts also improved and remained stable in his three-year tenure in Japan. From 2023 to 2025, he posted strikeout rates of 23.3%, 26.9%, and 25.1%, respectively. Considering the troubles some USA-born pitchers have had in their transition to the NPB (cough...Trevor Bauer...cough), Griffin's excellent performance in his three seasons with the Giants should be lauded. Griffin looked easy and dominant at times on the mound, as illustrated in this nine-strikeout performance he had last season against the Seibu Lions. In three seasons with the Yomiuri Giants, Griffin looked every bit like the ace the Royals were hoping he would develop into when they drafted him in the first round in the 2014 MLB Draft. What Could He Bring to the Pitching Staff in Kansas City? Obviously, the results were much better for Griffin in Tokyo than in the Minor Leagues here in the States. However, what was the difference for Griffin over the past three seasons? A lot could be credited to his change in pitch mix. That included the addition of a splitter and slider to his arsenal, as well as heavier usage of the four-seamer and less usage of the cutter. Below is a look at his pitch arsenal last year with the Giants, along with metrics for each pitch, including usage, velocity, strike rate, whiff rate, and batting average against. As Royals fans can see above, Griffin's most-thrown pitches were his four-seamer (39.2% usage), slider (18.2%), cutter (16.2%), and changeup (10.6%). He threw the knuckle curve (5.8%), splitter (5.7%), and two-seamer (4.3%) more sparingly. However, his seven-pitch mix last year was much more robust than his four-pitch repertoire back in 2022. His changeup, splitter, and slider were his best offerings in terms of whiff rate, as they generated rates of 50%, 42.9%, and 37.8%, respectively. While the four-seamer didn't create a ton of whiff (13.8%), he threw strikes with it (48.1% strike rate) and limited productive contact (.232 batting average against). Even though Griffin averaged only 90.2 MPH on the four-seamer, he was able to attack hitters with the offering on the edges, especially left-handed ones, as illustrated in the clip below. The four-seamer was not a great swing-and-miss offering. Still, it set up his other offerings well, especially his changeup and slider, his primary offspeed and breaking offerings, respectively. His changeup was his best swing-and-miss pitch, as it sported a 50% whiff rate. The pitch had similar movement to his four-seamer but considerable vertical drop and a sizable velocity difference (8.6 MPH, specifically). Those factors helped produce nasty whiffs like this one below. When it came to his slider, the breaking offering averaged 80.3 MPH, an even greater velocity drop from the four-seamer (9.9 MPH difference). That helped him induce a whiff rate of 37.8% on the pitch. Griffin's slider was not a loopy one but a late-breaking one, which contributed heavily to his success with it during his tenure with the Giants. The pitch was a nasty offering, especially for left-handed hitters, as seen in the clip below against the Lions. Griffin presents a unique weapon for Kansas City, should JJ Picollo opt to sign him this offseason. As seen in the clips below and in his overall numbers, the 30-year-old lefty can be an effective middle-innings reliever who can shut down left-handed batters in key spots, at the very least. His seven-pitch arsenal is diverse enough to be effective over 1-3 innings stretches, which is what the Royals need over the course of a full 162-game season. Furthermore, there could be some spot starter upside with Griffin as well, should they decide to commit to him with a multi-year deal. Griffin could bring that flexibility to the Royals' pitching staff, as Michael Lorenzen did a year ago, seamlessly jumping between the bullpen and rotation. The Giants rode him heavily as a starter over the past three years in the NPB, but his mix and stuff are good enough to handle shorter stints (and may play up more in those spots as well). That said, should injury hit the Royals' rotation, Griffin could handle a starting stint better than other lefties like Lynch or Falter, who have been starters in the past. There's no question that Griffin doesn't have the MLB pedigree of other free-agent relievers currently available. That said, Griffin's combination of intriguing pitch arsenal, relative youth, and versatility should make him a target for Picollo and the Royals. He could stabilize the bullpen not just for next year, but beyond as well. View the full article

The dust has settled on the 2025 MLB Draft Lottery. It was a solid outcome for the Twins, who should have a bonus pool upwards of $16 million to play with when we get to next July. The No. 3 spot is a fascinating place to pick. There's a consensus top prospect, in Roch Cholowsky, and kind of a consensus second choice in prep shortstop Grady Emerson. What of the rest? For this thought exercise, I'm going to try to rank the prospects the Twins might take based on their talent, recent performance, and fit with the organization. This 'ranking' will change significantly over the course of the amateur season, so I'm using it as a checkpoint for my thinking here in December. For the purposes of this writeup, we're going to assume Roch Cholowsky is going number one to the White Sox, and Grady Emerson is going number two to the Rays. Let's rank the five next most likely options. Will this look silly in July 2026? Absolutely; that's part of the fun. 1. Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama, R/R, 21 .316/.421/.636 (127 wRC+), 12.5 BB%, 24.2 K%, 18 HR, 17 SB (94%) Lebron is a premier athlete and one of the few prospects in this class who has the combination of tools and talent to push Cholowsky at the top of the class. He pummels stuff up in the zone, with maximum exit velocities north of 110 mph. There are warts in the hit tool, with some swing-and-miss (particularly breaking stuff down and away) and an aggressive approach. Defensively, it's a plus arm and at least above-average defense at short. He's sticking there. If Lebron irons out the hit tool concerns, it's superstar potential for a prospect who draws rave reviews for his leadership and makeup. 2. Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech, R/R, 21 .333/.468/.693 (151 wRC+), 18.3 BB%, 14.5 K%, 19 HR, 10 SB (91%) Smaller amateur players are often dinged by pro organizations, but there's no doubting Burress's insane production at Georgia Tech. He's hit 44 home runs in two seasons for the Yellow Jackets, with legit bat speed and strong high-end exit velocities, despite being listed at 5-foot-9. It's a plus arm and solid defense from a prospect who could start his pro career in center field, but he may end up in a corner. Regardless of the defensive home, he's been the most consistently productive college player in the past two seasons, by a wide margin. 3. AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia, L/L, 21 .293/.449/.558 (126 wRC+), 20 BB%, 12.6 K%, 15 HR This selection will likely put some Twins fans off, just because he's a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder, but there's a ton to like. The value here is in the offensive profile, and Gracia will have to mash to deliver, as he's not bringing more than average speed and defensive tools. Gracia is an on-base machine, though, walking 20% of the time in 2025. It's good bat speed and a swing built to lift the ball, but Gracia combines it with excellent bat-to-ball skills. Between the well-rounded hit tool and an outstanding approach, this is one of the best hit/power combos in the class. 4. Cam Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina, R/R, 21 101.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 28.5 K%, 5.8 BB% Flukey might not seem like an obvious fit, but a monster season could vault him into contention (and the Twins love drafting from the Carolinas). Standing at 6-foot-6, Flukey boasts a polished four-pitch mix. It's headlined by a fastball that sits 93-95 mph, but has been as high as 98 mph with outstanding ride. He dots it for strikes, too. Flukey made strides with both control and command in 2025, walking only 5.8% of opposing hitters. There are very few weaknesses in a profile that you could see starting a playoff game within a few seasons. 5. Mystery Guy Prior to the 2022 draft, Jackson Holliday was a fringe first-round prospect. Prior to the 2023 college season starting, Paul Skenes was ranked in the teens on many lists, significantly lower than Chase Dollander. It's likely that there's at least one name in the mix at three that we aren't yet talking about. If you have a prospect in mind, throw their name in the comments. Other Names Considered: Jacob Lombard, Liam Peterson, Sawyer Strosnider, Chris Hacopian, Tyler Bell, Ace Reece View the full article

There is still so much to be determined about the Toronto Blue Jays' offseason. With the annual Winter Meetings having just wrapped up, plenty of time remains to see what paths the club will take to prepare for its defense of the AL pennant. However, it's very likely they have already made their biggest value move of the winter. Right-handed pitcher Cody Ponce is coming back across the Pacific for his second stint in the big leagues on a three-year, $30M deal, following a standout season in the KBO that won him their MVP award. DiamondCentric's own Brock Beauchamp and Owen Hill have already done some preliminary analysis on Ponce; you should read their articles if you aren't caught up on his profile (here and here). Ponce is coming off one of the best seasons a pitcher has ever had in the KBO. Across 29 starts that spanned 180 innings, he recorded a 1.89 ERA, striking out 36.2% of batters, walking just 5.9%, and allowing only 10 home runs. FanGraphs' batted ball pages show that he induced groundballs at a 45.7% clip, a notable increase from his 40.4% career mark in MLB. His rate of flyballs on the infield also increased. His hard contact rate fell off the table. Thanks to pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski, we have some information on how Ponce went from being a castaway with a career MLB ERA of 5.86 to a KBO MVP. His average fastball velocity rose up a couple ticks, sitting at 95.5 mph and maxing out at 98. He added a new high-80s kick changeup. He makes use of five pitches in total, and could tinker with his arsenal to reacclimate to the big league level next year. The fact that he possesses plus velocity, intriguing off-speed shape, and arsenal diversity makes him projectable in both starting and relief roles. The changeup could prove to be Ponce's most consequential adjustment. When he was pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates, lefty hitters slashed .297/.336/.703 against him, striking out only 14.4% of the time. A better weapon to neutralize the handedness disadvantage would go a long way toward making him a serviceable pitcher in MLB, so the news of his revamped changeup is a big deal because his struggles against lefties were a primary reason why it didn't work out for him the first time. Brozdowski mentions in his newsletter that his data shows Ponce's changeup averaged around 1300 rpm, but multiple big league teams that have access to other proprietary KBO pitch-tracking information have it closer to 800. Eno Sarris, analytics guru for The Athletic, has a separate data source that had the spin on Ponce's changeup even lower, down into 600 rpm territory. As such, I'm going to assume with reasonable confidence that the spin rate on this pitch is less than 1000 rpm. There are no public-facing pitch quality models for the KBO, but we have enough shape metrics here to draw comparisons. Using the past two seasons as my sample, I looked for off-speed pitches in MLB with profiles that closely align with Ponce's: velocity between 85 and 91 mph, induced vertical break between -1" and 5", arm-side break between 5" and 11", and less than 1000 rpm. I also focused my search on pitchers with similar deliveries to Ponce, only looking for arms that went 3" in either direction of Ponce's 6.3' release height and 6.5' extension. Only two pitchers met these criteria, and both throw splitters. Take a look: Name Season Pitch Type RV Stuff+ MPH RPM IVB Arm-Side HB Justin Martinez 2024 Splitter 6 136 89.8 845 2.2 8.3 Hurston Waldrep 2025 Splitter 3 125 86.8 762 2.0 6.3 Cody Ponce 2025 Changeup 87.6 <1000 2.0 8.5 Stuff+ via FanGraphs Blue Jays fans should be ecstatic about this. Martinez could release a feature film with the number of times he has been posted by Pitching Ninja, and Waldrep ran a 48.3 K% with his splitter in 2025. Both comps' off-speed pitches score as some of the sharpest in the game according to stuff models, which generates some intrigue about Ponce's ceiling. The jump in fastball velocity is another reason why he's coming back to the highest level. His four-seamer averaged 93.2 when he was last here, so it's encouraging to have seen it closer to the upper 90s in Korea. Seventeen inches of carry with 95-96 on the radar gun is a recipe for a good fastball, except, as Brozdowski notes, the KBO ball is slightly different from the one MLB uses. That means Ponce should expect to achieve less rise on the pitch in North America, all else equal. Brozdowski projects 16 inches of carry and 9.5 inches of arm-side movement. While that's still an upgrade over the heater Ponce was using with the Pirates, it's not exactly inspiring. In terms of stuff, it compares well with a couple of pitchers in the Giants organization: Name Season Pitch Type RV Stuff+ MPH RPM IVB Arm-Side HB Hayden Birdsong 2024 Fastball -3 95 95.8 2291 16.4 9.5 Tristan Beck 2025 Fastball 0 87 94.6 2361 15.7 9.6 Cody Ponce 2025 Fastball 95.5 approx. 16 approx. 9.5 Stuff+ via FanGraphs For reference, Ponce's old fastball received an 87 Stuff+ grade in 2021. Considering these comps, it does not seem likely that he'll be able to rely on this offering as much as he did in 2025, especially when taking the manufacturing differences between the KBO and MLB baseballs into account. This is where I believe most of the grunt work lies for the Blue Jays' pitching department: How will they compensate for decreased four-seam usage? Push the cutter? Introduce a new slider shape? If the fastball touches 98, then it will still be useful on certain occasions, but sequencing is something that Ponce will have to think about differently than he did in Korea, especially if he's going to be a starter. On the other hand, could the Jays opt to worry less about arsenal diversity and plug him into a leverage role in the bullpen? The flexibility he comes with is part of what makes Ponce such a low-risk, high-reward signing. The final aspect of his repertoire data I want to delve into further is the zone rate on his four-seam fastball. According to Brozdowski's data source, it was 47%. This looks low for someone who had an overall 5.9% walk rate, and Brozdowski has conceded that the KBO zone rates he has access to are likely inaccurate due to conflicting reports from other sources. Ponce's four-seamer had a zone rate between 54% and 55% in his time in the big leagues, making those inaccuracies seem feasible. In any case, it's worth evaluating how his ability to throw strikes will translate to the tougher competition of the big leagues. His career walk rate is a considerably-better-than-average 6.9% in 55.1 IP. In three seasons in Japan's NPB from 2022-2024, his walk rate sat firmly between 5% and 7%. Pretty solid and pretty consistent! These hold up well when evaluating Ponce against other Americans who left to reinvent themselves in Korea before coming back stateside. Veteran starter Merrill Kelly, known for his strike-throwing ability, has been solid through seven MLB seasons since his return from the KBO. Erick Fedde and Kyle Hart reached similar heights to Ponce in 2023 and 2024, respectively, before coming back to MLB. Each pitcher had solid walk rates in Korea, and each one of them maintained a similar level of control after making the jump: Name Y KBO BB% Y+1 MLB BB% Merrill Kelly 7.0% 7.3% Erick Fedde 4.9% 7.2% Kyle Hart 6.0% 7.3% Cody Ponce 5.9% If those who came before him are any indication, Ponce's walk rate is not likely to suddenly balloon in Toronto next year. With his imposing swing-and-miss pitch best used against opposite-handed hitters, increased fastball velocity, a solid pitch mix, and a consistent track record of avoiding walks, it's easy to see why the Blue Jays' brass was excited about the opportunity to bring Cody Ponce into the fold. Rogers has money to spend, especially in the wake of the team's run to the 2025 World Series, but their ability to compete with the biggest spenders in the free agent market did not stop them from pursuing a cheaper arm that comes with serious upside. The transition from Korea or Japan to MLB can be tough to size up, and it's not always linear, but there is enough information available about the physical profile of Ponce's weapons, as well as the pitchers whose careers have followed similar trajectories, to be confident in the heights he could reach with the Blue Jays. As this past year showed, supplementary additions can be the difference between being a competitive team and making a run towards a championship, and Ponce has the tools to play an instrumental role on a club with aspirations as high as Toronto's. View the full article

After two forgetful years in the Boston Red Sox organization, infielder Vaughn Grissom knows freedom again. On Tuesday, the city he loosely called home since 2024 bid him farewell, trading him to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for outfield prospect Isaiah Jackson. In 31 games with the MLB team, Grissom slashed .190/.246/.219 with -0.7 fWAR and just three extra-base hits. It wasn't all his fault, but the fact remains, Grissom fell out of favor fast in Boston. That reality only exacerbated the failure that was the Chris Sale trade for Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. As is always the case, the analysis of this trade shouldn't be black and white. The context surrounding Sale's status with the Red Sox at the time he was traded doesn't change because he tapped into the fountain of youth with the Atlanta Braves. The Sale that the Red Sox were dealing was one they couldn't depend on anymore. After signing his extension with the team ahead of the 2019 season, Sale made just 56 starts from 2019 to 2023. In that span, he won just 17 games and ranked 111th in ERA. To add injury to insult, pun intended, Sale also had three seasons in which he made fewer than 10 starts. It's revisionist history to say the act of trading him was a mistake. Now, paying him $17 million so you could acquire Grissom? One of the biggest failures of the Breslow regime's player evaluation. A process that's had some home runs, to be sure, but this one was a massive whiff. It's not hard to see what the organization liked about Grissom at the time. Starting with the obvious, his age. At just 22 years old, it was conceivable the Red Sox had their second baseman of the future, adding him to the young core of Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony. Remember, Kristian Campbell hadn't ascended through the ranks yet. At the time, Mayer was the plan for the long haul at shortstop with some serious uncertainty at second base; uncertainty that still lingers going on nine years since Manny Machado took out Dustin Pedroia's knee in Baltimore. Moreover, the profile of hitter Grissom projected: He was a true hit-over-power bat with a projectable, athletic frame and a pretty good feel for the strike zone. While 2023 was forgettable, he flashed great potential with the bat in 2022 when he hit .291 with five homers in 156 plate appearances. They thought they were, at worst, getting controllable, steady play at second base for the next half-decade. Little did the organization know he'd hurt himself in spring training, get violently ill right before returning from the injured list, lose 15-plus pounds, and absolutely eviscerate his standing in the organization. By the time he flashed his potential late into the 2024 season, Campbell had emerged as an untouchable asset, and Grissom's hopes of being a Boston Red Sox contributor dwindled. Couple that with a .176/.300/.235 slash line in spring training in 2025, and the young infielder never stood a chance. At least for him now, he has a chance to rehab his standing in Major League Baseball on a team rife with question marks but hungry to return to the postseason for the first time since 2014. For the Red Sox's troubles? They get a young outfielder with 10 professional games under his belt. If Breslow is fortunate enough to have a long career as a decision-maker in an MLB front office, trades like this will happen from time to time. Yes, Sale winning the National League Cy Young in 2024 makes it hurt even more, especially as the Red Sox continue to covet top-of-the-market starting pitching. But that much is honestly irrelevant to the point; it was time to move on from the postseason hero. Good process, bad results. View the full article

Any player left unprotected for the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft is an extreme longshot. It means they are at least four years into their professional career, yet still don't occupy a spot on their team's 40-man roster or Triple-A roster. There is something—usually, multiple things—holding them back from being viable major league contributors. Following the third Rule 5 draft of the Peter Bendix era, I have spotted a trend: the Miami Marlins like to roll the dice on pitchers with control issues. In 2023, it was Julio Dilone, who they selected from the Seattle Mariners organization. In 2024, it was Texas Rangers farmhand Ricky DeVito. Then this past Wednesday, the Marlins double-dipped with this player profile by picking right-handers Jake Smith (Los Angeles Angels) and Livan Reinoso (Los Angeles Dodgers). I'm talking about pitchers who often don't have a clue where the ball is going—at best 30-grade control on the 20-80 scale. During his pre-draft season, Dilone walked 20.2% of opposing batters compared to the Arizona Complex League average of 13.1%. DeVito was issuing free passes at more than doubled his league's average (21.5% vs. 10.0% for all Texas League pitchers). Smith and Reinoso were both in that neighborhood in 2025 and had the same deficiency in previous campaigns, as documented below: The Dilone and DeVito projects were unsuccessful—both of them were released less than a year after joining the Marlins org. Why might this new erratic duo be any different? Smith's arsenal consists of a sinker, slider, curveball and changeup. Locating the sinker is his primary problem with frequent horizontal misses to both the glove side and arm side. jake smith miss.mp4 The 26-year-old's walk rate was particularly high toward the end of last season following a promotion to Double-A (23.5 BB% in 15.1 IP). However, there were still some impressive sequences from him at that level. Check out these paint jobs: jake smith paint.mp4 The low-hanging fruit with Smith is his wiry frame—he packs only 189 pounds onto his 6'4" frame. Adding strength to his lower body could help with repeating his delivery more consistently. He pretty reliably lands his breaking balls for strikes. If the Marlins can help him reshape those pitches to miss more bats, then he can utilize them to put away batters rather than relying so much on his volatile heater. Reinoso, 27, is still relatively raw as a pitcher considering that most of his focus was devoted to being a position player prior to entering pro ball in 2022. The Dodgers moved him to the mound on a full-time basis. Reinoso's appeal to the Marlins is obvious. He throws gas, sitting 97-99 mph with his four-seam fastball (he touched 100 in the clip below), complemented by a sweeper. His most common mistakes are four-seamers that sail high for easy takes. tstssx.mp4 Only 53.8% of Reinoso's pitches last season were strikes. For context, the worst strike rate by a qualified MLB reliever was Brendon Little at 56.8%. The likelihood of him sticking at the highest level is lower than Smith, but I can see why the Marlins deemed him worthy of the $24,500 draft fee as they dream on his upside. Expect Smith and Reinoso to be begin the 2026 season in the Double-A Pensacola bullpen. View the full article

When he was acquired by the Marlins on August 1, 2023, via trade with the Chicago White Sox, Jake Burger gave fans the concept of a player their organization had long been deprived of—upside power with several years of team control. Miami had Burger, then 27, under control through the 2028 season. Primarily a third baseman upon arrival, Burger strung together the best stretch of his career to that point, hitting .303/.355/.505/.860 in 53 games. The Marlins, led by first-year manager Skip Schumaker, found themselves in the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2003. The following year followed a much different script, though, as Miami took a major step back. It was immediately apparent that there'd be no October baseball, triggering midseason trades of mainstays, including Luis Arráez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Tanner Scott, for a team that would go on to lose 100 games. Burger began 2024 in a prolonged slump, but compensated for it from July onward. In 137 games, he hit .250/.301/.460/.761 with a team-leading 29 home runs and 76 runs batted in. The aforementioned Schumaker, who had been voted NL Manager of the Year in '23, departed at season's end. In no hurry to return to the dugout, he agreed to spend a gap year with the Texas Rangers as a senior advisor to president of baseball operations Chris Young. Schumaker and Co. would quickly get to work, acquiring his former player in Burger on December 11. Miami received infielders a trio of prospects—Echedry Vargas and Maximo Acosta, and pitcher Brayan Mendoza. In his first season in the Lone Star state, Burger dealt with adversity both off and on the field, starting with the birth of a daughter diagnosed with Down Syndrome. In honor of her, Burger changed his uniform number to 21. Making first base his full-time position, Burger OPS'd just .561 through his first 30 games. The Rangers demoted him to Triple-A Round Rock on May 2. Though he would hit a more respectable .254/.284/.453/.737 the rest of the way upon being recalled, Burger finished 2025 with a career-worst .687 OPS. His availability was limited by oblique, quad and wrist injuries. Beneath a trying year in the batter's box, however, Burger made some progress on the other side of the ball. After posting consistently mediocre defensive grades at the hot corner, first base has been a more ideal position for him. In 2025, for the first time in his career, Burger graded out as a plus defender, posting plus-one defensive runs saved over a 91-game sample. Looking ahead to 2026, Burger will again be playing under Schumaker, who was appointed Rangers manager following the resignation of Bruce Bochy. He appears to be penciled in as the club's first baseman. As for Miami, there is a void at the position with no satisfying internal solution. Despite being a serviceable defender there in 2025, Eric Wagaman's .674 OPS makes it difficult to justify him continuing to get everyday playing time. Rule five success story Liam Hicks saw time there, though he's of more value to the Marlins as a catcher with offensive upside. Graham Pauley, a piece in the return for the deal that sent Tanner Scott to the Padres, who has shown promise as a third baseman, though Miami has floated the idea of him getting reps at the less-demanding corner infield spot. Then there's Connor Norby, the initially thought of prized return in the Trevor Rogers deal with Baltimore, that is, before the unprecedented Kyle Stowers breakout. Norby, a Burger-lite clone a la plus-power and below-average plate discipline and defense, is another name the club has toyed with seeing time at first, though his future may be better suited in an outfield corner. The first base of it all is just one aspect of the Burger of it all, but the outcome of the players acquired in return for Burger will largely determine which club came out on top here. While they each experienced growing pains in their first season with the organization, the above-mentioned Vargas and Mendoza still boast a track record of success at the lower levels to keep fans hopeful. On the other hand, Maximo Acosta has already made an impression, displaying his raw power and positional versatility in his brief big league career. View the full article

The Blue Jays already have the kind of rotation depth most teams can only dream of, with Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, José Berríos, and Eric Lauer on their starting pitching depth chart. Yet, Sportnet's Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith suggest they might not be finished bolstering that group. According to Davidi and Nicholson-Smith, the Jays are "open to adding further pitching capable of starting." One name they're interested in – who should be 'capable of starting' – is Brad Keller. The right-hander pitched out of the Cubs' bullpen in 2025, making 68 appearances with a 2.07 ERA and 2.93 FIP. However, he was primarily a starter for the first several years of his career. Pitching for the Royals from 2018-23, Keller started 114 games with a 4.28 ERA and 4.35 FIP. He averaged 5.2 IP per start. Last month, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that Keller was generating interest "as both a starter and reliever." It's not hard to see why. He revitalized his career as a full-time reliever last year. It's tantalizing to think about him maintaining some of that newfound dominance while taking on a starter's workload. For the Blue Jays, Keller would only transition back to the rotation as a last resort. In a best-case scenario, he would take on a high-leverage bullpen role and repeat his success from 2025. He would only need to stretch out if multiple names ahead of him on the depth chart suffered injuries. Still, the fact that he could stretch out in such a way would make him a nice insurance policy. If Keller is looking for a team that's going to give him a guaranteed opportunity to start again, the Blue Jays are out of luck. But if he's willing to start the year in the bullpen while staying prepared to stretch out if needed, he could be just the pickup this pitching staff needs. Featured image courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Winter Meetings ended on Wednesday, but the hot stove discussion didn't conclude by any means. On Wednesday evening, it was reported that Mike Yastrzemski, who came over to Kansas City at the Trade Deadline last year, agreed to a multi-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. Yastrzemski was a massive boost to a Royals lineup that was stagnant for most of the season. In 50 games and 186 plate appearances, the 35-year-old outfielder slashed .237/.339/.500 with a 127 wRC+, 1.14 BB/K ratio, and 1.3 fWAR. His fWAR was 0.3 higher than his fWAR in 97 games with the Giants earlier in the season. The outfielder also showcased excellent plate discipline and strong launch ability with the Royals, as illustrated in his Statcast percentiles via TJ Stats. For the season, the Royals' offense ranked 22nd in baseball with a 93 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. However, from August until the end of the season, the Royals ranked 11th in wRC+ with a 107 mark. Yastrzemski's presence in the lineup had a significant effect on that turnaround. According to Sam Forsberg of Discuss Baseball, the Royals and Braves were the two primary teams in the mix for Yastrzemski this offseason. While nothing official was confirmed, the Royals likely offered Yastrzemski a deal. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers mentioned at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings that the Royals had made offers to free agents, but were waiting for their decisions. Losing out on Yastrzemski is tough, especially considering his impact after the Trade Deadline. That said, at 35, it may be challenging for Yastrzemski to live up to the contract he just signed with Atlanta. If the Braves exercise his option, he'll be nearly 40 by the end of the deal. He also has struggled in his career against lefties, with a career 79 wRC+ against southpaws, according to Fangraphs. Royals GM JJ Picollo will continue to scour the free-agent and trade markets for outfield help. According to multiple reports, acquiring a couple of outfielders this offseason is the top priority for Kansas City. Photo Credit: © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images View the full article

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the Twins are shopping at the mid-tier level of third basemen, checking in on the likes of Josh Bell, Ryan O'Hearn, and Rhys Hoskins. Want to know more about Rhys Hoskins? Read our in-depth write-up on him. O’Hearn is 32, a left-handed first baseman who spent 2024 with Baltimore and split 2025 between Baltimore and San Diego. In 2024, he logged 494 plate appearances with 15 home runs and a .264/.334/.427 line, along with a 9.3 percent walk rate, 14.0 percent strikeout rate, .330 wOBA, and 118 wRC+. In 202,5 he collected 544 plate appearances, hitting 17 home runs with a .281/.366/.437 line, 10.7 percent walks, 20.0 percent strikeouts, a .349 wOBA, and 127 wRC+. He's decent with the glove, posting a +3 Outs Above Average at first base in 2025. Bell is 33 and played first base for Miami and Arizona in 2024, then for Washington in 2025. In 2024, he totaled 603 plate appearances across two clubs with 19 home runs and a .249/.319/.405 triple slash; his walk and strikeout rates were 8.5 percent and 19.9 percent, with a .317 wOBA and 101 wRC+. In 2025, with Washington, he made 533 plate appearances, hitting 22 home runs with a .237/.325/.417 line, 10.7 percent walks, 16.5 percent strikeouts, a .324 wOBA, and 107 wRC+. He's a bad defender at first, with a -7 Outs Above Average at first base in 2024 and -3 in 2025. Hoskins is 32 and has played first base for Milwaukee in both 2024 and 2025. After missing the 2023 season recovering from injury, he returned in 2024 for 517 plate appearances with 26 home runs and a .214/.303/.419 line; his walk rate was 10.3 percent, strikeout rate 28.8 percent, with a .313 wOBA and 101 wRC+. In 2025, he appeared in 90 games and 328 plate appearances, hitting 12 home runs with a .237/.332/.416 line, 11.6 percent walks, 27.7 percent strikeouts, a .324 wOBA, and 109 wRC+. Like Bell, he is a bad defender at first base, with -4 Outs Above Average in 2024 and +1 in 2025. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have not been subtle about their belief in Royce Lewis this winter. Shortly after being hired, manager Derek Shelton made a point to visit several core players in person, a gesture that sent a message about how he intends to lead. Lewis was one of the first stops. At the Winter Meetings, Shelton took that message public on MLB Network, calling Lewis the type of player who can elevate a franchise. “This guy has a chance to be a superstar," Shelton said. Minnesota’s front office echoed that tone throughout the week. Their collective approach feels intentional. They want Lewis to feel supported, challenged, and surrounded by stability as he enters a pivotal stage of his career. For a player whose performance often rises with confidence, it is clear the Twins see value in reaffirming his place in their long-term plans. Highs and Lows of His Career The story of Lewis has always been dramatic, from the day the Twins took him with the first overall pick. At his best, he looks like one of the most electric players in the sport. Falvey highlighted that when speaking with reporters. “Royce has gone through so many ups and downs in his career at this point. We all know that," Falvey said. "There were huge, awesome moments, right? Go back to [2023] and big moments in postseason games and things you could not really believe were happening.” Those moments are the reason the Twins refuse to give up on the idea that he could still become a franchise pillar. But the team has also been forced to navigate long absences, extended recovery periods, and the uncertainty that comes with repeated setbacks “Obviously, the injuries that he’s dealt with at different times," Falvey said. "I think quite frankly, some of his performance was a result of some of those injuries and trying to track back and try to get himself where he needs to be physically.” This ebb and flow has made it challenging to project Lewis from one season to the next. Yet, the organization believes that with maturity and better health, the extremes in his performance will gradually smooth out. Falvey noted that Lewis is beginning to understand how to manage those waves, both physically and emotionally. Defensive Improvements Last Season One of the most encouraging developments last year was Lewis’s defensive trajectory. Early in the season, there were questions about how consistently he could handle third base, but by late summer, he appeared more polished and reliable. Falvey pointed to that progress as evidence that Lewis can grow when given repetition and structure. “The thing I took away from the end of the season with him was how much better he got defensively by staying consistent with the work, by doing the things every day,” he said. Behind the scenes, coaches praised Lewis for taking ownership of his preparation. He embraced early work, leaned on infield instructors, and made the incremental gains the Twins had hoped to see. Falvey emphasized that this consistency was not accidental, but the result of a player starting to understand what everyday excellence requires. “That’s the type of small wins every day that you build upon each other, and you find a way to become a better overall player. I think he found a way to do that.” With Lewis now projected as the primary third baseman for 2026, the Twins are optimistic that last year’s improvements were the beginning of a more stable defensive foundation. Need for Offensive Consistency in 2026 The offensive side, however, remains the most significant area of concern. Lewis has flashed elite bat speed and strength, but extended slumps, health interruptions, and an inability to stay in rhythm have limited his overall impact. Falvey addressed this directly. “Now we have to get a little more consistency on that on the offensive side, and he knows that,” Falvey said. The Twins believe that if Lewis can enter spring training fully healthy, he may finally get the uninterrupted runway necessary to find his timing and approach. The organization sees parallels to last year’s defensive gains, hoping that the same daily focus can push him toward becoming a more balanced hitter. Falvey added that a stable offseason and a cleaner spring could give Lewis a “build-up” similar to the one he experienced in the field. Lewis does have superstar talent; the ingredients are all there. The question is whether 2026 becomes the season when everything finally lines up. The Twins are betting that it will, and based on the messaging from the front office and the manager’s chair, they want to make sure Lewis believes it, too. Do you still believe in Royce Lewis? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Like always, the Rule 5 Draft took place on the final day of the 2025 Winter Meetings. As expected, the Boston Red Sox were active during the selection process, selecting an intriguing potential bullpen option while also losing one of their more notable prospects. Right as the draft started, the Red Sox saw 21-year-old Jedixson Paez selected by the Chicago White Sox as the second overall pick. This is the second time in three years that the White Sox have poached a pitcher from the Red Sox, the last time being Shane Drohan during the 2023 Rule 5 Draft. Drohan was returned to the Red Sox and this offseason was added to the team’s 40-man roster. Paez signed with the team as an international free agent out of Venezula in 2021 and looked to be an interesting young prospect, as he made it to Salem by 2023 when he was just 19 years old. Paez was known for his ability to repeat his delivery along with his command and control of his pitches, allowing him to limit walks. A five-pitch repertoire was made up of his fastball, cutter, changeup, slider and curveball, with his changeup and slider being his two best pitches. His fastball, on the other hand, held him back at times due to its low velocity. Topping out at just 94 mph, he struggled to miss bats with it despite an advanced feel for the pitch. During his time in the Red Sox organization, Paez pitched in 73 games, making 58 starts and tossing 307 2/3 innings. Going 17-15, he had a career 3.22 ERA along with 307 strikeouts and just 49 walks. Paez also missed most of the 2025 season due to a severe right calf strain that led to him to making just seven starts. On the flip side, coming to the Red Sox is 28-year-old Ryan Watson, who was selected by the Athletics with the eighth overall pick in the Rule 5 Draft. The Red Sox made a deal with the Athletics, shipping infielder Justin Riemer to them in return for Watson according to MassLive's Chris Cotillo. Watson was originally drafted in the 39th round of the 2016 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers, but instead went to college where he pitched four years for Auburn and went undrafted in the shortened 2020 draft. He would go on to sign as a non-drafted free agent with the Baltimore Orioles and would make his way up to Triple-A with them before being traded to the San Francisco Giants in August of 2024. This isn't the first time Craig Breslow showed interest in him, as Breslow attempted to acquire him during the 2025 season. Watson stands at 6-foot-5 and has a fastball that can touch 97 mph. To round out his repertoire are four more pitches in the form of a slider, curveball, sinker and splitter. As you may have guessed, his extension off the mound stands out, being close to seven feet. His main three pitches are the fastball, slider and curveball making up 93.2% of his pitches thrown in 2025, though against right-handed batters he was mainly a fastball-slider pitcher. Watson spent the entire 2025 season with Triple-A Sacramento where he appeared in 46 games, finishing 33 of them and earning nine saves. He tossed 50 2/3 innings, striking out 64 batters and walking just 16. He also managed to keep the ball in the park, allowing just five home runs. Perhaps mostly importantly, he had a 28.3% strikeout rate for the season and got batters to chase on 30.6% of his pitches thrown out of the zone. Add to it a 28.5% whiff rate, and he begins to look like an intriguing option for one of the last spots in the Opening Day bullpen. For those wondering, Reimer was drafted by the Red Sox in the fourth round of the 2023 draft and can play second base, third base and shortstop, though he is a light hitter. In 120 career games between the Rookie Complex League, High-A, and Double-A, Reimer hit a combined .239/.418/.287 with 12 doubles, one triple, one home run and 25 RBIs. He also struck out 89 times compared to 98 walks. In the Triple-A portion of the Rule 5 Draft, the Red Sox saw three pitchers — Eybersson Polanco, Alvaro Mejias, and Jonathna Brand — taken by the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay Rays, and Texas Rangers, respectively. The Red Sox selected left-handed pitcher Caden Vire from Milwaukee, first baseman/outfielder Matt Lloyd from St. Louis, and catcher Raudelis Martinez from the Tampa Bay Rays. With the Winter Meetings wrapping up, the Red Sox may not have made the moves people wanted, but they still got potentially better than they were prior to arrival. Watson should be an intriguing option out of Alex Cora’s bullpen should he win a spot in it. The Red Sox's 40-man roster is now full. View the full article