DiamondCentric

The Padres are by no means a bad team, but being in MLB’s most competitive division means being good often isn’t enough. If San Diego wants a chance at surpassing Los Angeles, they has quite a bit of ground to cover. One position that needs a complete overhaul is undoubtedly first base. The team produced 1.5 fWAR and a 109 wRC+ at the position, which is perfectly average. This stat line is largely thanks to Luis Arraez, who made 500 plate appearances at first base, and it goes without saying that he hardly fits the profile of the position. Now that he has hit free agency, the Padres will want someone with more pop and on-base ability in the role. Unfortunately, the free agent climate isn’t exactly one that benefits San Diego. Given the organization’s unfortunate ownership situation, they’re probably out of the running for Pete Alonso, who is by far the most appealing candidate. The team had mixed results with Ryan O’Hearn after acquiring him at the trade deadline, and other options are either too old or ineffective. However, Rhys Hoskins could be just cheap and productive enough for the Padres to be interested. Unfortunately, he might not be much better than his peers. He most recently completed a two-year stint with the Brewers, which, despite being a highly anticipated signing at the time, was immensely underwhelming on all fronts. For a total of $30 million ($34 million if you count the $4 million buyout of his mutual option), Milwaukee received a first baseman with a 102 OPS+ and 0.7 rWAR, hardly a strong return on investment. There was inherent risk following a long injury layoff in 2023, but even with 221 games under his belt, he never seemed to return to the hitter he was with the Phillies. The most drastic drop was undoubtedly in his ability to hit for power. Across six seasons in Philadelphia, he had a slugging percentage of .492, while he managed a slugging percentage of just .418 while with Milwaukee. Although this is a steep decline, one might note that by 2025, both his average and maximum exit velocities were back in the same ballpark (teehee) as in his best years in Philadelphia. This means that he hadn’t really lost the raw power he's had his whole career, but it points to something more insidious. Instead, it seems the reason for this apparent discrepancy is that his quality of contact varied depending on the pitches he was seeing. In 2025, he pummeled fastballs but struggled immensely against breaking balls. Here are some of his batted ball metrics when separated by pitch type. # of pitches Average Exit Velocity BA SLG wOBA Fastball 715 92.7 mph 0.281 0.556 0.402 Breaking 545 85.5 mph 0.179 0.253 0.209 Offspeed 169 88.5 mph 0.194 0.226 0.254 As you can see, there’s a huge spread between the average exit velocity on fastballs and breaking balls. An average exit velocity of 92.7 mph is on par with Corey Seager’s season numbers, whereas an average exit velocity of 85.5 mph would be on par with Sal Frelick’s season numbers. This crucial vulnerability, along with returning injury issues, is what caused his OPS to decline from .877 in May to just .532 in June as opposing pitchers began to exploit his shortcomings. Unless he makes major adjustments, expect this steady diet of breaking balls and offensive slump to continue, especially as a more varied pitch mix is becoming vogue. Another symptom to check is his bat speed. Unfortunately, we only have bat-tracking data starting in 2024, which doesn’t provide enough data to definitively say whether he’s in the midst of a gradual decline. At 32 years old, his bat speed isn’t going to get any faster. In the two seasons for which we do have data, he was around the 40th percentile. It isn’t the reason for his diminished production at the plate, but it sure isn’t helping either. Offensively, he still does some things well. His plate discipline is as good as ever, and he has yet to post a walk rate below 10% for any season in his career. He still makes excellent swing decisions, posting an elite chase rate of just 19.9% last year. Finally, his batted-ball profile was still elite last season, with 34.5% of his batted balls pulled in the air, more than double the MLB average of 16.7%. But again, these positive batted ball results come almost exclusively against fastballs. Of the 25 total extra base hits he had, 19 of them came against fastballs, including all but one of his home runs. Based on the way that things have been going for him recently, Rhys Hoskins should be seen as more of a depth piece or placeholder than a starting option capable of moving the needle. Sure, the Padres don’t exactly have the most appealing options at either position, but does it really make sense to spend additional money on a player who could be at most a sidegrade? Of course, it remains to be seen what direction the Padres will take in 2026. They’ve been surprisingly dormant thus far despite a laundry list of needs this winter. Does this mean they’ll begin tearing down the expensive roster they built just a few years ago, or are they just biding their time to reload? Maybe they do need a placeholder like Hoskins just to have somebody’s name to pencil into the lineup every day. Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the construction of next year’s roster, bolstering their depth at first base may not be close to the top of their list of priorities. Still, spending any of what might be a contracted payroll in 2026 on a player with more risk than reward is never a good move. At this point, signing anyone may be enough cause for excitement, but recent data suggests that a Rhys Hoskins contract could hurt more than it would help. View the full article

The Blue Jays might lose an opportunity if they continue to wait on Bo Bichette to make a decision. In all likelihood, both sides know each other’s valuations and are mulling the “what ifs”. One “what if” for the Jays is exploring alternatives. Much has been made of moving Andrés Giménez to short and filling the vacancy at second or third by moving existing personnel around the infield, but what if the better move is to bring in Ha-Seong Kim? The move would be similar to last year’s trade that brought Giménez to Toronto. Like Giménez, Kim, is a premium up‑the‑middle defender. He also brings above-average baserunning, is an adaptable infielder, and has above‑average plate discipline at a fraction of the cost of other elite shortstops. This offseason market is notably thin at shortstop. After opting out of his 2026 player option with Atlanta, Kim re‑entered free agency as arguably the best glove‑first shortstop available. Bichette is the only other regular shortstop at or above Kim’s tier. However, the biggest difference between the two will be the cost, especially given Bichette’s offensive production. Kim’s selling point to interested teams is that he provides arguably the best shortstop defence on the market and at a manageable, shorter-term cost. Kim has some hurdles to overcome, and injuries are one. He had shoulder surgery before last season that reduced his playing time with Tampa Bay, and then he was bothered by a bad back and eventually waived by the team. Atlanta picked him up in September, and he played another 24 games, batting .253 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and an OPS of .684. There have been rumblings in the past that Kim was on the Jays’ radar. He is represented by agent Scott Boras, who recently worked with the Jays to sign Dylan Cease's $210 million contract. From 2021 to 2023 with San Diego, Kim posted strong defensive metrics across shortstop, second, and third. He won a Gold Glove in 2023 (utility). His overall Wins Above Replacement in 2022 and 2023 (5.0 and 5.4 by bWAR) was driven largely by defense and baserunning. Kim is the kind of infielder who turns contact into outs. In 2025, the Jays’ up‑the‑middle defense improved with the addition of Giménez and Ernie Clement’s continued breakout. Adding Kim to the infield (with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first), and the Jays get an infield that erases mistakes and supports the rotation. At the plate, Kim doesn’t have Bichette's numbers, but he does have a competent bat that comes with on‑base skills, above‑average contact, and situational awareness. Over his career, he has a .324 OBP and a 97 OPS+, quite close to the league average. If you discount his injury-shortened 2025, his last full season (2024 with San Diego) was impressive. He slashed .233/.330/.370 and delivered an above-average wRC+ with a strong walk rate and selective chase profile. You might recognize those stats as something the Jays prided themselves on last season. The offence emphasized contact and plate discipline over power. Statcast shows consistent discipline for Kim. His chase rate is typically near 21%, his whiff around 16%, and his walk rate in the 10% band. In 2025, returning from injury, his expected contact quality tracked near his career numbers, with modest power but solid zone contact. He isn’t going to hit many home runs, but he will get on base and knock in runners. Kim’s bat is portable across positions. Whether he plays short, second or third, a league‑average bat is perfectly fine if the glove saves runs. On a roster with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other middle‑order anchors (and potentially another premium bat like Kyle Tucker), Kim’s role would be to stabilize the run‑prevention side and keep the line moving at the plate. He also adds value on the bases. He stole 38 bags in 2023 and 22 in 2024, with a Statcast sprint speed around league average to slightly above but with excellent decision making. That combination produced several 90‑foot advancements without reckless outs. While Kim might be hoping for a longer-term contract, he is likely open to a one-year deal just over the $16 million player option that he declined from the Braves. If the Jays can persuade Kim and Boras to turn their sights north, plenty of possibilities would remain for the Jays. Adding Kim at under $18 million per season would maintain payroll flexibility, perhaps allowing the signing of a player like Tucker or providing more money to upgrade the bullpen. Kim just turned 30, and if the shoulder is sound, then he should still be in the prime years of his career. His arm strength in 2025 did fall according to Statcast, but that can be addressed by reps — as long as the shoulder has healed. Even if his bat lands near league average and the arm grades slightly below where it was, Kim’s multi‑position utility and savvy baserunning provide a 2–3 WAR floor when healthy. Toronto’s 2025 season demonstrated that strong defense can carry a rotation through thin margins. The transition to that defense-first philosophy started in the outfield with the addition of Daulton Varsho and has expanded into the infield with Giménez and Clement and even Alejandro Kirk behind the plate. Kim has a reputation as a hard worker and adaptable teammate, illustrated by his seamless transition between infield positions in San Diego, his fitting in quickly with the Tampa Bay and Atlanta clubhouses last season, and his immediate contributions with the Braves. Those characteristics matter on a contending roster with evolving roles. Another interesting benefit to signing Kim relates to the Jays’ international reach and focus. Kim is a respected figure in Korean baseball circles and a fan favorite from his San Diego tenure. Toronto has historically benefited from international stars (both on the field and in fan engagement). Adding Kim would strengthen the Jays’ global brand, particularly across Asia, which might be another consideration. As the clock continues to tick with no decision from Bichette, maybe it’s time for the Jays to make a move and fill their infield vacancy. They already have Boras on speed dial. Is it time to make the call? View the full article

Each team gets a slice of MLB's signing bonus pool money with every draft pick in the first round of the MLB Draft. How much money could be allocated for the Twins and their first-round pick? Jamie and Jeremy have the answer. View the full article

In one sense, it seems absurd that Tyler Black is in a make-or-break situation with the Brewers. He was a top-100 prospect after his breakout 2023 season, but then things went sideways. Two trades in the 2023-2024 offseason put Joey Ortiz and Oliver Dunn ahead of Black at third base—though he, in turn, gave no evidence that he could handle the spot, anyway. Another trade saw Jake Bauers take the role of left-handed complement to Rhys Hoskins in Milwaukee for the 2024 season—though Black didn't hit enough to be a first baseman, either. Black ended up riding the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle a bit, and never really got the chance to fully adjust to big-league pitching or to settle in at some position and find a defensive home. Even when Christian Yelich was gone for the season, the Brewers kept Black in Nashville, instead of giving him the chance to fill in at DH. Black’s luck got a bit worse in 2025, when he suffered a hamate injury. Again, he spent most of the season at Triple-A Nashville, while also spending time at Maryvale rehabbing with the ACL Brewers. In a brief stint with Milwaukee, with far fewer plate appearances than he had in 2024, he posted a .538 OBP and only struck out once. Black could still be an asset in the Brewers lineup. He's not powerful enough to hit in the middle of the batting order and he lacks defensive value, but he seems likely to sustain an average or better on-base percentage even against the best pitching in the world. The big question, of course, is whether can he break through on a talented Brewers team. Isaac Collins properly won plaudits for his defense in left field, and his approach is somewhat similar to Black’s. He's a switch-hitter, unlike Black, and he's proved that he can be a plus hitter in the majors. Collins's sluggish finish to the season cracks the door for Black, but he's probably the only player on the projected 26-man roster Black has any hope of displacing—and again, that would require the best version of Black to show up this spring, whereas Collins has much less to prove. Could Black also end up at first base? It would require, at the very least, a slump or injury to Bauers, who has the power normally associated with that position. Bauers also plays better defense at the cold corner. Even if Bauers were hurt, Andrew Vaughn might expand his role to take all the playing time at the position; he certainly showed more in 2025 than Black has ever shown. Collins’s defense is similarly better in left field, which has been the sticking point for Black. He’s not found a defensive home. In short, Black needs to get significant at-bats at the major-league level in order to be sure about his remaining upside. If the Brewers can find him some playing time, Black deserves one more chance. If they can’t, he will likely be traded—or worse, designated for assignment and picked up for a song by another team. That could happen before Opening Day, but at the very latest, he'll finish the season as either a late-blooming breakout guy or some other team's problem. Do you think Tyler Black will make it in 2026? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

Byron Buxton’s 2025 resurgence continues to pay dividends, and this time, the spotlight is coming from the international stage. According to reporter Francys Romero, Buxton has been included on Team USA’s preliminary roster for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. While preliminary rosters are not final, this early nod signals how dramatically his status has shifted in the eyes of evaluators across baseball. The 2026 World Baseball Classic is scheduled for March 5 through March 17 and will feature 20 teams competing across four host cities. Pool play will take place in Miami, Houston, San Juan, and Tokyo. After that, quarterfinals will be split between Miami and Houston before the tournament returns to Miami for the semifinals and championship round. It will be the sixth edition of the tournament, and Japan will enter as the defending champions after winning the 2023 event. For Buxton and the Twins, the timing of this recognition could not be better. It was not long ago that the idea of Buxton participating in the WBC would have been dismissed immediately. During the previous edition of the tournament the Twins were protective of their star center fielder as he worked to prepare his body for the upcoming season. The focus then was strictly on building the foundation for a healthy year rather than adding competitive innings in March. Everything changed last year. Buxton delivered the most complete season of his career, rewriting personal bests across the board and reminding fans of the superstar talent he brings when healthy. He set career highs in home runs with 35, runs batted in with 83, and runs scored with 97. He also reached new marks in walks, plate appearances, and at bats while surpassing 120 games played for only the second time in his eleven major league seasons. His .264 batting average, .327 on base percentage, and .551 slugging percentage added up to an impressive .878 OPS and a 136 OPS plus. The season culminated with his first career Silver Slugger Award and a renewed belief that he could still elevate his game even further. That level of production combined with his elite athleticism makes Buxton an enticing fit for Team USA’s roster construction. More importantly for Minnesota, his inclusion on the preliminary list suggests that other evaluators share the Twins confidence in his health and long term outlook. Participating in the WBC would give Buxton a chance to showcase his abilities on one of the sport’s biggest stages while entering the regular season with competitive momentum. While the final Team USA roster will not be set for some time, Buxton’s presence on the early list stands as another milestone in his return to form. For the Twins, it is the latest reminder of how valuable a fully operational Buxton can be. View the full article

The MLB Draft Lottery arrives on Tuesday at 4:30 PM Central, and the Minnesota Twins enter with the second-best odds to land the first overall selection. It should be a moment of optimism. It should be the kind of scenario where a franchise dreams of future superstars. But this is Minnesota, and hope is more of a seasonal rental than a long-term investment. In a search for any possible edge, the Twins reportedly reached out to the Minnesota Timberwolves to learn how they once navigated NBA Draft Lottery night. The goal was simple. The Twins wanted the MLB version of Anthony Edwards or Karl Anthony Towns. Unfortunately, the Wolves sent advice from a different era—one that Twins leadership quickly realized should have been left in the vault. Derek Falvey admitted the team was simply looking for any insight that might help them avoid the standard Minnesota drop on lottery night. “We thought they would walk us through the Anthony Edwards process,” Falvey said. “Next thing we know, they're showing us grainy footage of the David Kahn years. I called the room to an immediate halt when someone said the phrase 'dual point guard theory'.” Initially, the Twins were hoping to build off their own success, since they vaulted from the projected 13th overall pick to the 5th overall pick in MLB’s inaugural lottery, conducted in 2022 ahead of the 2023 Draft. That jump allowed Minnesota to land Walker Jenkins, who has been the organization’s top prospect ever since. But instead of championing good fortune, the Wolves insisted on teaching the principles of accidental chaos. Tim Connelly was reportedly confused by the request, but still tried to offer what he called “institutional wisdom.” “The old files are what they are. If your scouts believe in the baseball equivalent of Jonny Flynn, you cannot let public pressure stop you," Connelly said. "You have to ignore everything and take the shortstop who won the dunk contest at his high school pep rally.” At one point, a Wolves staffer offered a laminated sheet titled: “Approaches That Definitely Do Not Work Anymore.” The Twins say it included handwritten notes on drafting players who share agents, searching for prospects with the best smile, and selecting multiple identical skill sets because it looks cool on paper. A Twins analytics employee reportedly fainted after reading the final line, which read simply, “Trust your gut, even if the numbers beg you not to.” Falvey tried to remain polite as the meeting spiraled. “We kept waiting for the moment when they explained how they got Edwards,” Falvey said. “Instead, they kept telling us that if two prospects look the same, the correct answer is drafting both. I am not sure that translates to baseball. Also, someone tried to argue that swing decisions are overrated. I am pretty confident that is not true.” The Twins attempted to redirect the meeting by asking how the Wolves avoided lottery heartbreak in recent years. “We traded all our picks for Rudy Gobert," Connelly said. "It really simplifies lottery night.” Falvey reportedly wrote the phrase down and circled it 17 times. Still, the Twins are hoping luck will remain on their side. The organization knows how dramatically fortunes can shift, just as they did the year Minnesota jumped to fifth with no expectations and landed Jenkins. Falvey remained hopeful, despite the questionable guidance. “We still love our odds and our process,” he said. “We are just choosing to forget everything we heard today.” By the end of the consultation, the Twins promised to send the Wolves a fruit basket. The Wolves suggested including two identical baskets because “sometimes you just take both and let the future sort it out.” The Twins left Target Center immediately. Now, Minnesota waits to see if the lottery gods reward their bold curiosity or punish them for taking advice from the one franchise that accidentally taught an entire city what could go wrong on draft night. View the full article

Byron Buxton’s 2025 resurgence continues to pay dividends, and this time, the spotlight is coming from the international stage. According to reporter Francys Romero, Buxton has been included on Team USA’s preliminary roster for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. While preliminary rosters are not final, this early nod signals how dramatically his status has shifted in the eyes of evaluators across baseball. The 2026 World Baseball Classic is scheduled for March 5 through March 17 and will feature 20 teams competing across four host cities. Pool play will take place in Miami, Houston, San Juan, and Tokyo. After that, quarterfinals will be split between Miami and Houston before the tournament returns to Miami for the semifinals and championship round. It will be the sixth edition of the tournament, and Japan will enter as the defending champions after winning the 2023 event. For Buxton and the Twins, the timing of this recognition could not be better. It was not long ago that the idea of Buxton participating in the WBC would have been dismissed immediately. During the previous edition of the tournament the Twins were protective of their star center fielder as he worked to prepare his body for the upcoming season. The focus then was strictly on building the foundation for a healthy year rather than adding competitive innings in March. Everything changed last year. Buxton delivered the most complete season of his career, rewriting personal bests across the board and reminding fans of the superstar talent he brings when healthy. He set career highs in home runs with 35, runs batted in with 83, and runs scored with 97. He also reached new marks in walks, plate appearances, and at bats while surpassing 120 games played for only the second time in his eleven major league seasons. His .264 batting average, .327 on base percentage, and .551 slugging percentage added up to an impressive .878 OPS and a 136 OPS plus. The season culminated with his first career Silver Slugger Award and a renewed belief that he could still elevate his game even further. That level of production combined with his elite athleticism makes Buxton an enticing fit for Team USA’s roster construction. More importantly for Minnesota, his inclusion on the preliminary list suggests that other evaluators share the Twins confidence in his health and long term outlook. Participating in the WBC would give Buxton a chance to showcase his abilities on one of the sport’s biggest stages while entering the regular season with competitive momentum. While the final Team USA roster will not be set for some time, Buxton’s presence on the early list stands as another milestone in his return to form. For the Twins, it is the latest reminder of how valuable a fully operational Buxton can be. View the full article

In separate MLB Network interviews, Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and manager Clayton McCullough addressed some frequently asked questions about why the team wants coaches to make pitch-calling decisions instead of catchers. View the full article

The 2025-26 Major League Baseball offseason remains in its relative infancy, but things are beginning to pick up with the Winter Meetings in full swing. One of the more notable developments thus far for the Chicago Cubs is their connection with a pair of high-profile third basemen. This offseason has already brought renewed reports of the team's interest in Alex Bregman. The Cubs were reported to have offered Bregman a deal last winter before he ultimately landed in Boston. From the time he opted out of his deal with the Red Sox this winter, though, the Cubs have been a team whose name has been floating around in connection with the veteran. More recently, we've heard the Cubs and Eugenio Suárez's name mentioned in tandem with one another. Suárez was a popular name that appeared in conjunction with the Cubs' trade deadline pursuits this past year before he wound up traded to the Seattle Mariners. Of course, July also wasn't the first time that we've heard his name come across the rumor circuit as a potential addition. Either player presents a certain level of logic for the team to target as an addition for 2026. Bregman offers more of an all-around game while Suárez would add a massive power component (.298 ISO in 2025). Both would provide a boost to an offensive team to help cover for Kyle Tucker's imminent departure. And given the prominence of each name in connection with the Cubs, there's plenty of time to hash out what their respective fits look like from a skill set standpoint. Regardless of how either pursuit shakes out, however, there's a crucial element worth discussing in relation to the team's current roster construction. Heading into this offseason, the infield group looked like as stable a phase as the roster had to offer: Carson Kelly and a healthy Miguel Amaya behind the plate, Michael Busch at first base, Nico Hoerner at second, Dansby Swanson at shortstop, and Matt Shaw resuming his post at third base. The latter's role now becomes something of a question considering this recent batch of hot-stove rumors. There isn't any question that Shaw's bat still has a ways to go in its development. As good as his defense was as the season wore on, his total body of work included a .226/.295/.394 line and a 93 wRC+. The power manifested at points during the summer but disappeared again toward the end of the year. His only contributions during the team's brief playoff run came by way of his five walks. His swing mechanics remain inconsistent, and there are some zone issues to be worked out. None of these are things that can't be fixed, but if the Cubs fancy themselves within a contention window, then that changes the calculus on how long the team is willing to wait with him entrenched as an everyday third baseman. Should the Cubs ultimately sign one of Bregman or Suárez (or acquire a different yet-to-be-named everyday type), it changes the perception of Shaw's role entirely. In general, we're left to wonder if there's more development on the horizon for Shaw in Iowa or if he becomes part of a trade to a rebuilding club for a starting pitcher. Those would appear to be the most likely outcomes in a situation such as this. It's also possible that the outcome becomes dependent on which third baseman is signed. That's because there's something of a possibility that Shaw remains on the big-league roster as a utility-type as the bat comes along, but only if it's Suárez that puts ink to paper. Benefits exist with that approach, at least in the sense that he'd provide coverage in the middle infield for a pair of players that rarely get a break while also rotating in at third should the Cubs choose to occasionally deploy Suárez as the designated hitter. But teams are not always compelled to turn to such a role with a high-upside prospect, as it can tend to stifle their actual playing time. It would be a delicate balancing act if required. That said, such a scenario is less likely to exist in the event of a Bregman signing. In that instance, Shaw is likely destined for a pure backup role, rotating in on more of an as-needed basis. It's also not as if Shaw is the only one that could be impacted by a third base signing. Nico Hoerner is a free agent after 2026 coming off a career year in which he garnered down-ballot MVP votes. We don't know if the Cubs are interested in retaining Hoerner on a new deal or what terms might look like. We do know that his name was making the rounds in trade rumors as recently as last winter. Would the Cubs sign a third baseman, flip Shaw and his multiple years of team control over to the keystone, and move Hoerner as part of a deal for a coveted starting pitcher via trade? Again, that's purely speculation. But it fits another logical route that could be traversed if the team were to bring in a fresh face at the hot corner. This is all completely hypothetical, of course. Then again, everything is this time of year. What's important is that the Cubs are clearly interested in retooling their roster given some of the names to which we've seen them attached. The fallout from a deal, were they successful in pursuit, would lead to some fascinating outcomes within the rest of the roster. View the full article

The MLB Winter Meetings began on Monday, and the hot stove was heating up, with plenty of rumors swirling about the Royals and the transactions they may make this week. According to Ken Rosenthal, the Royals are interested in acquiring two outfielders this offseason: one through free agency and one through a trade. When it comes to a possible trade candidate, one name that has been floated is Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox. While the White Sox are in the Central Division with the Royals, it appears that GM Chris Getz is adamant about getting something of value for Robert on the trade market, even if it's a fraction of what it was a few seasons ago. Bradford Doolittle of ESPN predicted Robert going to the Royals in a recent ESPN Winter Meetings preview piece. Here's what Doolittle said about the possible fit for Robert in Kansas City. Robert would come with his fair share of baggage. Over his career, the Cuban outfielder has played more than 110 games in a season only once, in 2023, when he posted a 4.9 fWAR. Last year, in addition to playing 110 games and accumulating 431 plate appearances, he slashed .223/.297/.364 with a .661 OPS, 84 wRC+, and 1.3 fWAR. He also hit 14 home runs and stole 33 bases with the White Sox in 2025. While that's not an awful line (he has a positive fWAR at least), it certainly isn't the ideal profile of a player who will be making $20 million next season. Robert Has the Power Profile to Fit in Kansas City (And New Staff Could Help) There's no question that Robert's surface-level metrics are pretty disappointing, which is why many Royals fans are averse to GM JJ Picollo acquiring the White Sox outfielder. However, when diving deeper into his profile, he checks a lot of boxes for the Royals in terms of satisfying their outfield needs this offseason. While he only had 14 home runs and a .141 ISO last season, his exit velocity, barrel, and launch angle metrics were a lot more palatable. That is evident in his TJ Stats summary below. Robert's Max EV ranked in the 90th percentile, his 90th EV ranked in the 64th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 61st percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot percentage ranked in the 65th percentile. Additionally, he also pulled the ball well, with a 67th percentile pull rate and 59th percentile Pull Air percentage. That ability to pull the ball is key, as it can lead to many home runs at Kauffman Stadium (the gaps are what kill most hitters). Granted, there may be a home run decline or plateau in Robert's move to the K, and that is evident: Of his 103 career home runs, only 89 would've gone out at Kauffman, according to Statcast data. However, he could still find a lot of extra-base hit production based on his hits spray chart from last year, modified for Kauffman Stadium dimensions. Right now, the Royals outfield depth looks thin, and not just in the corners, but even in center field. While Kyle Isbel is a phenomenal defensive outfielder (he was a Gold Glove finalist last year), his hitting has left a bit to be desired, especially against left-handed pitchers. Isbel had a 56 wRC+ against lefties last year, and he has a 64 wRC+ mark against southpaws over his career. Having someone like Robert, who can play center, could keep the Royals competitive against left-handed starting pitchers. When looking beyond Isbel, Robert's Statcast profile looks pretty impressive compared to other Royals outfielders currently on the 40-man roster who are projected to be on the Opening Day roster as of today, according to Roster Resource. As Royals fans can see from above, Robert tops the other three Royals outfielders in not just wOBA, but xwOBA as well. He also compares well with Jac Caglianone in terms of batted-ball and barrel skills, which is encouraging, especially considering Caglianone was so well-known for those two skills as a prospect. While Robert still needs work, the upside of bringing Robert in is that the Royals have a new hitting coach staff who not only could help him, but are also familiar with him. Obviously, Alec Zumwalt knows Robert quite well after playing against him for so many seasons. That said, the new assistant hitting coach, Marcus Thames, also worked closely with Robert in Chicago. That familiarity could help, especially since Thames will be able to do more work individually with Robert in Kansas City than he could in Chicago, when he had to run the entire team hitting program. That kind of attention could be the boost Robert needs to help him turn his career around after two subpar seasons by his standards (1.9 fWAR combined over the past two seasons). Robert Brings a Solid Defensive and Baserunning Profile While the Royals had a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder in Isbel, the rest of the outfield was pretty mediocre in 2025, based on Fielding Run Value. The Royals ranked 16th in the league in FRV with a -1 mark, a six-run drop from their 2024 mark, when they ranked 8th in outfield FRV. Thus, it's important for the Royals not just to find a solid-hitting outfielder but one that can hold his own defensively in Kauffman's spacious dimensions. Robert fits that mold perfectly. Last season, the 28-year-old produced a +7 FRV and +7 OAA. Based on Statcast OAA box plot data chart, Robert showed an ability to cover all kinds of ground in center field. Robert could easily play one of the corner outfield spots against right-handed starting pitchers (most likely left field) and play center field when the Royals face left-handed starting pitchers. That's the kind of defensive versatility and value Kansas City has been missing the past couple of seasons, especially from outfielders who hit in the middle of the lineup (which Robert would). Another positive of Robert's profile is that he is a solid baserunner, which fits in manager Matt Quatraro's aggressive philosophy. In 2024, the Royals ranked fifth in baserunning runs above average with a +9 mark, according to Statcast. Last season, they ranked 24th in baseball with a -4 mark. That's a 13-run difference and honestly, a key contributor to why they won four fewer games in 2025. As for Robert, he produced +2 runs on the basepaths last year, with three of those runs coming on stolen bases. That led all White Sox players with 10 or more opportunities, according to Statcast. Furthermore, Robert's 33 stolen bases would've ranked second among Royals players last season. Thus, the White Sox centerfielder would boost the Royals not just at the plate, but in the field and on the basepaths in 2026. A Trade That Could Work for the White Sox and Royals There's no question that Robert presents a financial challenge for the Royals with his $20 million salary for 2026. However, the Royals could trade a couple of bad contracts to the White Sox in exchange for taking Robert off their books. The Royals tendered deals to pitcher Bailey Falter and second baseman Jonathan India this offseason, with India agreeing to an $8 million contract on November 22nd. Falter is still in the negotiation process. The White Sox already have a second baseman of the future in Chase Meidroth. However, they may be open to having India around as insurance and to provide some veteran leadership on the club. India could be a good mentor for Meidroth, and India could take on designated hitter duties for a White Sox lineup that ranked 28th in OPS and 27th in runs scored. As for Falter, he is out of Minor League options and may be a better fit for the White Sox rotation, who have bigger question marks in the No. 4 and 5 spots. New White Sox pitching coach Zach Bove has familiarity with Falter, and thus, could get the most out of the lefty. Furthermore, Falter could end up being a nice trade piece at the Trade Deadline if he bounces back. To balance out the trade, based on Baseball Trade Value surplus value, reliever Brandon Eisert would be thrown into the deal along with Robert. Eisert posted a 4.54 FIP last year in 69.2 IP and could be a nice middle-innings arm for the Royals, who could thrive under the Royals' pitching coach team. Here's the trade in its entirety, via BTV. Their model validated this deal as a fair trade for both sides. This deal could be a win-win for both Kansas City and Chicago. The White Sox get a couple of possible Trade Deadline flip pieces, and the Royals get a lineup-changing outfielder and a reliever who could add some depth to the bullpen (who also has Minor League options). Of course, Robert has to stay healthy to make this deal a valuable one for the Royals in 2026. However, if he does, then Kansas City may get an All-Star-caliber player for next season, which will help them in their quest to return to the postseason. View the full article

Freddy Peralta has been the most popular Brewer in trade speculation this offseason, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported on Monday evening that Milwaukee has also received calls about reliever Trevor Megill, including from the New York Mets and New York Yankees. It’s best to take most rumors with a grain of salt during hot stove season, but if Megill is indeed drawing interest from multiple contenders, the Brewers should strongly consider selling high on him. Generally speaking, relievers are baseball’s most volatile players and often have short shelf lives. What worked for three to six outs at a time one season could be less effective the next. Even if their performance quality remains similar from one year to the next, their results can fluctuate more in smaller sample sizes than those of starting pitchers or position players. Given the fickle nature of the position, consistently cycling through relievers each year is typically the shrewdest way to build bullpens. Acquire them when their value is low, roster them for a few seasons when they’re at their best, and trade them away before they regress or become free agents. The Brewers have adhered to that pattern during their sustained run of competitiveness. They traded away All-Star closers Josh Hader and Devin Williams for controllable talent as they neared free agency, backfilling them with in-house arms and breakout scrap-heap pickups like Joel Payamps, Jared Koenig, Grant Anderson, and Megill himself three years ago. (To further illustrate the point, Payamps crashed and burned in 2025, after the Brewers transformed him into a reliable high-leverage arm for two seasons.) This situation is slightly different. Unlike Hader and Williams, Megill has two full seasons of club control remaining before he’ll reach free agency. The Brewers have not reached the crossroads with the 32-year-old that they did with their previous two closers. Even so, they should be motivated to move him for the right return. No one can dispute the quality of Megill’s performance with Milwaukee—a 2.88 ERA, 2.99 SIERA, 85 DRA-, and 31% strikeout rate in 128 innings are sparkling numbers—but it is fair to question whether his best work is behind him. Megill’s stuff dominates when things are clicking, but he lacks the shapes and angles to miss enough barrels when he’s not at his best. When he’s properly sequencing his 99-mph backspin fastball and hard knuckle curve, they rack up whiffs and chases. When he isn’t, that straight fastball yields plenty of hard-hit fly balls. Since 2023, batted balls against it have had an average exit velocity of 92.3 mph and an average launch angle of 18°. Even though Megill threw harder than ever in 2025, his fastball whiff rate declined for the second consecutive season. While he successfully adapted by leaning more on his curveball as the year progressed, things could get dicier if his fastball loses another bit of effectiveness for any reason. Season FB Run Value FB xwOBA FB Whiff% 2023 1 0.309 22.00% 2024 9 0.282 25.40% 2025 1 0.336 20.50% Those concerns are particularly relevant after a late-season elbow scare. A flexor strain limited Megill to 47 frames in 2025 and sidelined him for nearly all of September. He was noticeably diminished when he returned for the postseason, and while his velocity was trending in the right direction throughout October, it never quite returned to its pre-injury level. The Brewers deemed Megill fully recovered after their season ended in the NLCS. Even if his elbow is entirely healthy, though, it’s worth noting that he enters his mid-30s without having reached 50 innings in a big-league season. None of this is to say that the front office must prioritize selling Megill for any return. Given his contractual situation, they should aim higher than the two-player package they received for Williams last year. However, Megill’s star is likelier to dim than to continue brightening next season, and Abner Uribe is poised to anchor the bullpen after closing games in his absence. If a fair deal for Megill is available, the Brewers should take it. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins enter Tuesday’s MLB Draft Lottery with the second-best odds at securing the No. 1 overall pick, and they are guaranteed to select in the top 10 for the 2026 MLB Draft. It's a rare opportunity for a club that has spent most of the past decade trying to compete while still building internally. Any time a front office gets access to elite amateur talent, the stakes rise. Minnesota’s recent history with premium picks shows promise in some places, frustration in others, and plenty of room for debate, as the club prepares for what could be a franchise-shaping selection. Here’s a look back at Minnesota’s recent track record with top-10 picks and how those players have developed in the team’s farm system. 2023 MLB Draft: OF Walker Jenkins (5th Overall Pick) Minnesota used the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft on outfielder Jenkins, and his rapid rise through the system has earned him national attention. In many other draft classes, he likely would have been the first overall pick. Few prospects reach Triple A as 20-year-olds, and players who do often develop into above-average big-league regulars. Jenkins has shown advanced bat speed and a mature approach, but he is still an unfinished product. Last season, he posted a 135 wRC+ in 84 games. There are no guarantees in prospect development, though, and the Twins will need patience as he adjusts to the highest levels of the minors. His trajectory is encouraging, but stardom is not yet assured. 2022 MLB Draft: SS Brooks Lee (8th Overall Pick) One year before Jenkins, the Twins grabbed college shortstop Lee with the eighth overall pick. His plus hit tool turned him into one of the fastest-moving prospects in baseball, and helped him reach the major leagues ahead of schedule. Minnesota pushed him to Triple-A St. Paul in his first full professional season, and he made his MLB debut in 2024. That intriguingly natural feel for hitting has yet to translate to production in his early MLB returns. Over the last two seasons, Lee has posted a 75 OPS+ in 189 games. He's slated to open next season as Minnesota’s starting shortstop, and that comes with pressure on both sides of the ball. The organization still believes his approach and swing will win out in the long run, but it is fair to say he has been more frustrating than fulfilling so far. His upcoming season may be one of the most critical individual storylines on the roster. 2017 MLB Draft: SS Royce Lewis (1st Overall) Lewis was Derek Falvey’s first premium draft choice as chief of Twins baseball operations, when they selected him first overall in 2017. The Twins took Lewis over a group that included Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay, and MacKenzie Gore, ultimately signing him to an underslot deal to distribute additional money to the rest of the class. For stretches, that decision looked brilliant. Lewis has flashed superstar ability, launching big home runs and showcasing a dynamic skill set that few players can match. The trouble, of course, is that injuries and inconsistent playing time have made it difficult for the Twins to view him as their long-term anchor. Last season, he played in a career-high 106 games but posted an 83 OPS+. Lewis remains a fascinating talent whose next chapter could swing the team’s overall trajectory. Looking Back at the Previous Regime’s Track Record Before the current front office took over, Minnesota went through a stretch of four straight top-10 picks under Terry Ryan. The results were uninspiring, except for one undeniable success story. Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, and Kohl Stewart were all selected in the top six picks, but none developed into cornerstone players. Gordon provided some big-league value, but not enough to justify his draft spot. Stewart never found traction. Jay moved to the bullpen and battled injuries. Byron Buxton, selected second overall in 2012, became the exception. When healthy, he has played at an MVP level and turned into a franchise icon. Without Buxton’s success, that run of picks would be remembered far more harshly. The MLB Draft remains one of the most unpredictable talent pipelines in sports. Variability in development, wide gaps in competition levels, and the number of professional levels a player must climb after being drafted before getting to the majors all contribute to uncertainty. Still, teams must hit on top-10 picks if they want sustained success—especially teams like Minnesota, who operate with a below-average payroll. Minnesota’s recent record shows both optimism and caution as it prepares for a potentially pivotal selection in 2026. With the lottery approaching and talent evaluations underway, the Twins know this opportunity does not come around often. The true test will be turning a premium pick into a premium player. What stands out about Minnesota’s recent top-10 picks? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

ORLANDO, FL—The Winter Meetings are underway and on day one, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and manager Clayton McCullough spoke to the local media. After a 17-win improvement, Bendix believes that the 2026 club will be one that can compete for a National League wild-card spot, noting that 79 wins "is not the goal." Bendix also said that there will be additions needed from outside the organization to ensure the goal of another improving year. "We are trying to put a really competitive team together in 2026 and we're trying to build for to be as good as we can for as long as we can," said Bendix on Monday morning. "We're having lots of conversations with free agents and with other teams. It's my job to listen and to understand where the market is and what our opportunities are to ultimately to make the best decisions." When it comes to the current free agent market, a couple big names connected to the Marlins have come off the board. Relievers Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley signed multi-year deals with the Mets and Orioles, respectively. "I think there's parts of the market that are surprising, other parts that are taking a long time," said Bendix. "That's how it is every year. I think it's very easy to craft narratives when you get to the end of the offseason and look back, but in the moment, it's hard to tell." One of the main topics discussed was the potential trades of starters Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera. As Fish On First reported ahead of the winter meetings, Cabrera appears to be the most likely to get traded, with the market looking similar to what it was during the trade deadline. Other reports have surfaced that the team is listening on every starter aside from Eury Pérez. "It is my job to listen," said Bendix. "I would be doing a disservice to our fans, a disservice to Bruce (Sherman), the organization if I didn't listen to what is out there and understand our possibilities. The second thing is that not everything that you read is true." Following an uneven season returning from Tommy John surgery, the Marlins expect Alcantara to be closer to his Cy Young self in 2026. Later in the day, manager Clayton McCullough opened his press conference, noting how year two of this process has been much more slowed down, rather than the craziness of having to fill out a staff and taking in as much information as possible. This also bleeds into spring training, now having more familiarity and a structure that the coaches and players are familiar with. "When you walk on the fields, it's one thing to know someone, their name, we watch them on the other side of the field or know a stat sheet," McCullough told the media. "But to spend a year or spend months with a person, that's when real bonds start to form. We hope that we can just somewhat pick up where we left off last year. The players will come in with an expectation and an understanding of what's important to us, how we are going to run our drills and going to run camp. There's going to be less of those unknowns. We can firmly make the focus on areas of which our team and individuals need to get better for us to accomplish what we'd like to." Although McCullough is retaining the majority of his 2025 staff, assistant pitching coach Alon Leichman is the most recent ex-Marlin to depart for a promotion elsewhere as he will become the Colorado Rockies lead pitching coach. Derek Shomon, Joe Singley and Tyler Smarslok also left for gigs with the Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals, respectively. The additions to the staff filling their shoes are assistant hitting coaches Chris Hess and Corbin Day, first base/catching coach Craig Driver, and as Fish On First reported, Blake Butler will become the new infield coach. "As we went through that process, Blake stood out," said McCullough. "Coming over from the Pirates, he managed in their system. He was going to be their infield coordinator. We love his technical acumen. He's also someone who culturally will be a real additive for our group. I feel like Blake will come in and build strong relationships with our guys and team up with Hector Crespo, and those guys will continue to push our infield program forward." Looking at the team in 2026, the expectation is that Agustín Ramírez will catch Sandy Alcantara on Opening Day. The Marlins continue to believe in Ramírez as a catcher and want to see more out of him before pivoting. Driver and McCullough both spent time with the 24-year-old in the Dominican Republic. "I think Gus had a chance to self-reflect some on the year, take a breath," said McCullough. "One thing that he mentioned: physically he felt okay, but mentally, it's quite the grind. I asked him to hit in the top of the lineup almost every day and having to go back there and catch, probably played more than he ever has. Gus was saying all the right things. He was embracing and taking on this offseason different than he did the last season, which is fair. He has a different perspective on what's ahead and what's expected." Aside from the two media availabilities, it was a slow first day at the Waldorf Astoria in Orlando. Day two will feature the MLB Draft Lottery, where the Marlins have a 1.85% chance to earn the number one overall pick in the 2026 draft. A new episode of Fish On First LIVE begins at 6:00 p.m. ET to react to the lottery results. Elsewhere around the league, Michael Soroka signed a one-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Steven Matz signed a two-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays. View the full article

When the Blue Jays made the first big splash of the offseason by signing Dylan Cease, it was understandably the talk of the town. One curious thing I noted in the early discussions was the framing of the potential Toronto rotation. The most egregious (in my opinion) came from a TSN Instagram post. The post, straightforwardly titled “Potential Blue Jays Rotation in 2026,” showed Cease, centred in the foreground, flanked by Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage. Behind them, representing the potential fourth and fifth starters were Shane Bieber and… Eric Lauer? No disrespect to Lauer, who was one of the (relatively) unsung heroes of the 2025 team and arguably, at times, the most important member of the rotation, but that’s Berríos’ spot. We were all caught a little off guard by the Cease signing, so I don’t want to put *too much* weight on a social media post from the network that doesn’t have the rights to the Jays — but it was something I noticed. Then it was Cody Ponce coming to Toronto on a three-year deal. Owen Hill laid out some of the possible ramifications for Berríos, and it comes down to how Toronto intends to use Ponce. Is he the fifth starter, or does he slide into a Lauer-type role? Those are questions you could fairly ask about Berríos, too, Then it was a Mitch Bannon report that the Jays “will listen to trade offers” for Berríos. Let’s not forget, Berríos wasn’t just one of the 38 different players to throw a pitch for Toronto last season. He’s been the Opening Day starter in three of the four seasons he’s been here since the Jays acquired him from Minnesota in 2021. Given the time of year, I’ve been watching a lot of holiday-themed programming. I was all prepared to use the Island of Misfit Toys as a comparable – “What good is a Machine that’s lost its calibration?” – but I’m not sure that Berríos is as broken as that premise would lead us to. Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. Berríos wasn’t great last season. His ERA (4.17) was the worst it’s been in three seasons, he threw his fewest innings (pandemic-shortened season aside) since 2017, and despite the drop in innings, he still walked more batters (56) than in any season since 2018. A quick look at his peripheral stats isn’t much better. His Statcast percentile ranks graphic is bluer than an Elvis Presley Christmas (there’s the seasonal analogy I needed!). His average fastball velocity was the lowest it’s been since he came to Toronto, while his average exit velocity and barrel rate were both at their highest. So where is the bright side? Berríos’ season ended with a career-first appearance out of the bullpen, followed by another career-first: a trip to the injured list. Here’s where I’m going to throw in some speculation. I think he was pitching hurt most of the second half of last season and potentially longer. He was a little shaky out of the gates to start last season, but in May, he showed serious improvement, and in June, he was the best pitcher in the rotation. We recognized it at the time, and he was Jays Centre’s Pitcher of the Month in June and a runner-up in May. Looking at his splits, the numbers really spiked in July/August/September, culminating in that IL stint and a full absence through the playoffs. His arm angle was lower than in the previous two seasons, which could point to a player who was just gritting his way through the season, trying to maintain the IL–free streak he had through his career to that point. If that were the case, he certainly wouldn’t be the first player to ever try to mask an injury and ‘play through it.’ We’ll shelve the discussion of whether that’s heroic or stupid for another day. Considering that he had over 1,500 career innings pitched without ever hitting the IL, maybe pitching through pain has gotten him through previous seasons. Ross Atkins told reporters that Berríos should “have a completely normal offseason and be ready for spring training.” I don’t want to completely hand-wave away his 2025 season, but if the results were influenced by injury and he’s healthy for next season, isn’t he a lock for at least the last rotation spot? John Schneider has shown himself to be loyal to “his guys,” and Berríos has a track record of durability if nothing else. When the announcement was first made of his move to the ‘pen in September, Berríos said a lot of the right things about wanting to help the team and doing whatever it took to win – but he was less convincing than some of his teammates when similar moves occurred. He is undoubtedly a guy who wants to start. He’s also a guy with three years remaining on his contract. Now, if the trade rumours are anything more than ‘of course we’ll listen to a trade offer for a player, we’ll listen to an offer for anyone on the roster, that’s literally our job’ then would Toronto be selling low just to clear salary? I think the most likely outcome is that Berríos goes into spring training as a Blue Jay and starts the season as the fifth man in the rotation. His days as the Opening Day starter are likely behind him now, but there’s nothing to definitively suggest that he can’t put up close to 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00, and if that’s your fifth guy, that’s not bad. Toronto was also more aggressive with its management of pitchers last year than in previous years, and if Berríos breaks camp in his expected spot, it might be with the shortest leash of his career. View the full article

On Monday evening, Brian McTaggart, a Houston Astros beat writer for MLB.com, wrote that the Kansas City Royals and Cincinnati Reds are two teams that have been talking with the Astros during the Winter Meetings about acquiring outfielder Jake Meyers. Meyers is coming off one of the best seasons of his career in 2025, making him a candidate for a more extended role with another team next season. In 104 games and 381 plate appearances, the University of Nebraska product hit .292 with a 107 wRC+. He also hit three home runs, stole 16 bases, and accumulated a fWAR of 2.3, a career-high. Meyers doesn't offer a whole lot of power, and his batted-ball metrics are a bit questionable. However, he shows strong plate discipline (0.46 BB/K ratio) and strong contact ability, as seen below in his TJ Stats summary from last season. Though he hits right-handed, Meyers actually had reverse splits last season. Against lefties, he posted a 0.27 BB/K ratio and 93 wRC+ in 71 plate appearances. Against righties, he posted a 0.50 BB/K ratio and 111 wRC+. Over his career, however, he has a 110 wRC+ against lefties and an 85 wRC+ against righties, so 2025 may have been an aberration. If acquired, the 29-year-old outfielder would likely split time in centerfield with Kyle Isbel, who has a career 64 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. However, Isbel has cemented his place as the Royals' primary center fielder over the past three seasons due to his excellent defense. He posted a +12 OAA and +10 FRV last season, which earned him a nod as a Gold Glove finalist. Meyers offers the same defensive upside. Last year, he posted a +9 OAA and +8 FRV. He also posted OAA and FRV of +13 and +11, respectively, in 2024. Thus, the defense in centerfield wouldn't miss a beat with Meyers. McTaggart mentioned that the Astros are looking to acquire young starting pitching this offseason. Kris Bubic appears to be an early target for Houston, and could be part of a deal involving Meyers. While Bubic is coming off an injury and is a free agent after 2026, the Astros may need to throw something else in a trade package with Meyers to solidify a deal with Kansas City. Bubic made his first All-Star team last year and posted a 2.55 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 3.3 fWAR in 116.1 IP before his season ended due to a shoulder injury. A straight-up trade of Meyers for Bubic may be light on the Royals' end, so it will be interesting to see what talks develop between Houston and Kansas City over the coming days in Orlando. Photo Credit: © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images View the full article

One of the smaller questions surrounding the Blue Jays has been answered this week. On Tuesday, Ross Atkins addressed the media at the Winter Meetings, and among the many topics he covered was the future role of right-hander Louis Varland. He will remain in the bullpen and will not be stretched out as a starter in 2026 (per Sportsnet). Varland was acquired at the trade deadline and appeared in 23 regular season games with the Blue Jays, posting a 4.94 ERA with 28 strikeouts. He followed that with an MLB-record 15 postseason appearances, delivering a 3.94 ERA and 17 strikeouts. There had been some early offseason chatter that Varland may be stretched out as a starter, as he made 23 starts over four seasons in Minnesota, but after the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce earlier this offseason, they are opting to keep Varland in a relief role. The Blue Jays' bullpen remains in flux; Nick Sandlin and Yariel Rodríguez have already been removed from the roster, and more moves are expected. For now, it's a safe bet to pencil Varland into one of the club's eight bullpen spots for 2026. Featured image courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have hovered around Joe Ryan trade rumors for more than a year, but the conversation appears to be cooling. At last season’s trade deadline, Boston was one of several clubs connected to Minnesota’s All Star right hander as the Twins shipped out 10 players, including multiple relievers with years of team control. The speculation even reached the point where a false social media report briefly had Ryan headed to Fenway Park. This winter brought more of the same chatter, though Derek Falvey has repeatedly emphasized that Minnesota intends to build around a core of Ryan, Byron Buxton and Pablo Lopez. Any trade discussion involving those players was always going to require an overwhelming offer, and it seems the Red Sox have decided not to press forward. Rob Bradford of WEEI is reporting that the Red Sox have “drawn back on their pursuit of Joe Ryan.” He also notes, “Connelly Early was never introduced by the Red Sox as part of the trade deadline talks last season." Bradford added a follow up that said that this could still change. Early would have been a huge pick up for the Twins if he was the trade centerpiece. He is ranked as Boston’s number four prospect by MLB Pipeline after posting a 2.60 ERA with a 31.9 K% and a 9.7 BB% across 100 minor league innings last season. He also made his major league debut and performed well in a small sample size (four starts), raising his value even further. While Boston is not the only club with interest in Ryan, their strong farm system made them a logical suitor capable of offering multiple top 100 prospects. For now, though, it appears the Red Sox are stepping aside as the Twins remain committed to keeping their rotation anchored by one of their most dependable arms. View the full article

During his Winter Meetings media availability, Marlins manager Clayton McCullough discusses his optimism for Ryan Weathers, Otto Lopez, Sandy Alcantara and Connor Norby in 2026.View the full article

Ever since the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Munetaka Murakami has been the Japanese player MLB teams have been waiting for. Sure, Yoshinobu Yamamoto arrived to the states 2024 with the largest-ever contract for a pitcher in hand and Roki Sasaki followed suit by choosing the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter, but Murakami was the one with 56-homer power. At just 25 years old, the "Babe Ruth of Higo" is finally a free agent; DiamondCentric projects him to earn $92 million over four years, or $23 million per season before accounting for his posting fee. Most other prognosticators figure him a lock for a nine-figure deal. The issue with Murakami isn't that his upside is limited. On the contrary, he may be one of the most prolifically-talented baseball in the world. The problem is that, for as towering as his ceiling is, his floor may stoop even lower. That 2022 season was truly legendary, as he won the Central League Triple Crown while hitting .318 with 134 RBIs. He's hit 246 home runs in 892 career games in NPB, good for a 162-game pace of 44.67. There's no denying those numbers, nor the potential they invite. But there's also no denying that Murakami has struck out nearly 29% of the time over the last three seasons combined, nor can one hide the fact that he simply cannot hit high-velocity fastballs. As you may know, MLB pitchers tend to throw harder than their counterparts in the NPB; Murakami's swing-and-miss issues are more likely to be exacerbated, not fixed, upon his arrival to the states. Contrast that with Kazuma Okamoto, who possesses similar power (he averaged 33.1 home runs per year from 2018-24) but far fewer projectability concerns (he ran equal 11.3% walk and strikeout rates in 2025). Yes, Okamoto is four years older than Murakami, and like his compatriot, is unlikely to have the defensive skills to stick at third base over the long term. Luckily, the Red Sox have an opening at first base as well, where the 29-year-old NPB star should thrive. Okamoto's contact skills have only improved with age, and he topped out at an 80.4% contact rate (total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches) in 2025. Though an elbow injury limited to just 69 games, he still hit .327/.416/.598 with 15 home runs and a 210 wRC+. He's simply a safer bet than his fellow Japanese slugger, especially when you consider he actually thrives against velocity. The Red Sox, along with the Blue Jays and... Pirates(?) have been named as some of the most aggressive suitors in the Okamoto sweepstakes. His right-handed power would fit nicely into Alex Bregman's vacated spot in the middle of the lineup, particularly if Boston wants to run a L-R-L-R-L gauntlet at the top of the order with Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Okamoto, and Wilyer Abreu. The Winter Meetings should reveal a lot more into both stars' markets (as well as Tatsuya Imai's free agency venture), given that their posting deadlines expire on Dec. 22 (Murakami) and Jan. 4 (Okamoto), respectively. Expect the Red Sox to be in on both players, but when push comes to shove, it should surprise no one when they chose the elder slugger over his revered counterpart. View the full article

For a year or so, there have been rumors about the Washington Nationals trading left-handed starter MacKenzie Gore, one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent Juan Soto to the Padres three and a half years ago. Gore, who will turn 27 in February, has two years of team control remaining, and the quality of his stuff and sequencing suggest he's worth over 25 runs per year, relative to an average starting pitcher. He's a hot commodity, and naturally, the Cubs will be involved if he's available. They had interest in him at the trade deadline in July. However, the other key player from the Soto deal appears to be on the block, too. CJ Abrams, 25, was an All-Star in 2024, and he's coming off two straight seasons as an above-average, left-handed batter with a blend of power and speed. He has three years of team control remaining, and although his most famous connection to the Cubs is the unhappy incident in which he was demoted to the minors after the team discovered that he had gambled all night at a Chicago casino before a day game at Wrigley Field, he might be as good a fit for Chicago as Gore is. There's a lot to like about Abrams. The one thing not to like is his defense at shortstop, because he's not good at that position. His arm doesn't hold up on throws from deep in the hole, and despite his plus speed and good overall athleticism, he struggles to maximize his range. As a third baseman, though, he would be terrific. He's lanky enough to cover the position well, and has quick feet for the hot corner. Most of his throws would come on the move toward his target, if he slid to third. He'd go from a defensive liability to an asset with a switch to the hot corner, and his bat plays at that spot, too. There's plenty to clean up with Abrams, in terms of approach. However, he has good feel for contact and slightly above-average bat speed. He's young enough to make any of several more adjustments, but as a flat-swing lefty who hits line drives and can use his speed to generate extra bases, he's a better fit for Wrigley Field than a more lofted-swing, power-dependent left-handed batter would be. Abrams would infuse the Cubs lineup with dynamism and upside, on medium-term team control. He could fit as a complement to Matt Shaw, rather than a replacement, making him more similar as a target to Munetaka Murakami and Sung Mun Song than to Kazuma Okamoto, Eugenio Suárez or Alex Bregman. He's younger, though, than any of those players—even Murakami. The Cubs would have to trade significant prospect capital to acquire him, but as a first-year arbitration-eligible player moving down the defensive spectrum, he'd be relatively cheap in a financial sense, for 2026 and beyond. He would provide the team with insurance against the departure of Nico Hoerner via free agency, and maybe even the opportunity to trade Hoerner if the right offer comes to them. The real question, then, is what Abrams would cost. The Nationals would begin by demanding Shaw as the headliner of a deal for Abrams, and that shouldn't be a dealbreaker from Chicago's side. Though much cheaper and further from free agency, Shaw is only one year younger than Abrams. He doesn't have Abrams's tools or track record. For the moment, however, let's consider what a deal without Shaw as the anchor might look like. The Cubs' top four prospects are catcher (or, perhaps designated hitter) Moisés Ballesteros, outfielder Owen Caissie, right-handed pitcher Jaxon Wiggins and shortstop Jefferson Rojas. The order of that quartet might depend on preference, but it's hard to push any of the players in the tier below them (most notably, Kevin Alcántara and 2025 first-round pick Ethan Conrad) into the mix with those four. Washington is unlikely to accept any of the big four straight-up for Abrams, and after they traded reliever Jose A. Ferrer to the Mariners for catching prospect Harry Ford, perhaps they're also a poor fit for Ballesteros. Caissie, Wiggins and Rojas would all appeal to Washington, though. Pairing either of the first two with Rojas would make an interesting package. Rojas, first baseman Jonathon Long and either Ben Brown or Javier Assad would form an interesting one, too. Abrams is so young and so talented that, despite occasional (overblown, according to two league sources) questions about his makeup, he's a huge upside play for any team who can pry him loose from the developmentally deficient Nationals. With three years of team control left and the chance to buy in before his production catches up to his tools, he presents a tantalizing opportunity to catalyze a lineup that already features a great blend of speed, power, and discipline. While the Cubs' interest in Gore remains real and is growing increasingly urgent, they might do better to turn their attention to Abrams—and let the money they save by bolstering their lineup that way land with one of the top arms in free agency, instead. View the full article

Rumors are swirling at the Winter Meetings, regarding possible Cubs interest in Eugenio Suárez. The powerful infielder, who is projected to receive a 3-year, $55-million contract by DiamondCentric, would add pop to the Cubs lineup. However, the team should refrain from allocating precious dollars from their budget to this player. If the Cubs’ budget were higher, of course they should sign Suárez. He would make the team better. However, given the reality of the team's payroll—namely, that they're probably capped somewhere south of $250 million and that Suárez would account for perhaps 30% of the money they'll be authorized to spend this offseason—they should choose a different course. FLAWS IN THE PROFILE Suárez is 34 years old, so a three-year deal would employ his services for his age-34, age-35, and age-36 seasons. We should not expect him to improve or, in Jed parlance, exceed projections, based on his age. STEAMER projects Suárez to post a 108 wRC+ next season, according to FanGraphs. Nearly all his offensive value comes from hitting home runs. Statcast data reflected a .212 expected batting average for him in 2025, and he had merely average bat speed (72.1 mph). He's one of the most strikeout-prone hitters in the league, and it's not because he works such deep counts. Another age-related factor is defense. Suárez has sometimes rated well at the hot corner, but in 2025, Statcast's Outs Above Average put him at -3, which is discouraging. When you also see his negative baserunning value, a picture is painted. Suárez is a one-trick pony. It’s a great trick—hitting home runs—but the Cubs need all-around contributors for the money they would be spending on him. Even if he spent some of his time at DH, rather than third, he'd be a bit too low in OBP to rank among the best in the game at that position. THE STREAKINESS As a team, the Cubs have had long stretches of below-average offense in each of their last three seasons, even while ranking well in overall seasonal production. Suárez does not help with that. In fact, his profile shows extreme valleys. While acknowledging that his peaks are quite high, the Cubs need to factor this into their equation. Last season (albeit after being traded to the worst park for hitters in baseball, in Seattle), Suárez could only tally a .189/.255/.428 line after the trade deadline. The ability to get that cold is a problem, especially for a team that already lacks consistency in their offensive core. This was just one season, and as previously mentioned, he was dealt to a team that plays its home games at T-Mobile Park. But in 2024, the streakiness was also a huge part of Suárez's narrative. His first half in that season was weak, with a mere .216/.302/.366 slash line and 10 home runs. The second half was better, but not as thrilling as the heater he had in the first half of 2025. WHO INSTEAD, THEN? That's simple. Keep Matt Shaw at third base. In his rookie season, Shaw posted an .839 OPS in the second half. This included a .522 slugging percentage. If he can get more consistent in his own right (a fairer expectation from a guy just entering his mid-20s), he could provide power himself. Any improvement from his 107 wRC+ projection from Steamer ("outperform projections," anyone?) would firmly place him in the top 10 third basemen in the league. Suárez wouldn't be a full-time third baseman for Chicago. He would likely fill time at first base and DH, as well. Moisés Ballesteros projects for a 108 wRC+, just as Suárez does. Chicago's internal options don't look much worse than the expensive outside hire that is Suárez. COUNTERPOINT: To be fair, hitting 49 home runs last year is an impressive feat. Suárez's last five homer totals go 31-31-22-30-49. In his stint in Arizona, he slugged an incredible .576. It's possible that he's found his true ceiling. He's known to be a solid locker room influence, as well. It's also a safer option than counting on youngsters like Shaw and Ballesteros. With the Cubs coming off a 92-win season, safety in projections would be a solid idea. Suárez's floor is certainly higher than the youngsters’. Suárez would be a flashy addition, but out of character for how the Cubs have operated under Jed Hoyer. It would be surprising for the Cubs to sign him, and ultimately, it would be detrimental to the roster as a whole. Let someone else pay a premium for the decline years. View the full article

The Brewers have updated their front office roster across all departments. We will detail many of the changes in baseball operations and player development for you this week (Tuesday, 12/9, and Wednesday, 12/10), but for now, we'll focus on updates within the scouting staff. Anything in bold refers to a change in title or role. Former Brewers big-leaguer Taylor Green is now the top-name listed in the International Scouting section of the roster; otherwise, the International list of employees remains the same. Green's prior title was "Special Assistant - Scouting and International Player Development". His new title is "Director - International Scouting and Player Personnel". On the domestic scouting side of things, Corey Rodriguez is now listed as "Special Assistant - Scouting", joining holdovers Bryan Gale and Mike Berger in that role. Rodriguez had previously been listed as "Supervisor - Scout Teams/West Coast Special Assignment Scout". Former #1 overall draft pick Bryan Bullington (Pirates, 2002) remains as National/Regional Scout. The "Special Assistant - Scouting" title may seem innocuous, but given that the four names just mentioned are listed atop the scouting section, as seen in the screenshot below, it lends credence to their importance. Doug Reynolds' title shifts from "National/Regional Scout" to "National Crosschecker". Regional Supervisor Mike Serbalik is now "National Supervisor". Congratulations are also due to four area scouts who have been promoted to the role of "Regional Coordinator": James Fisher, Taylor Frederick, Steve DiTrolio, and Shawn Whalen. Two area scouts are no longer listed with the organization. Longtime scout Steve Smith had patrolled Georgia and South Carolina for some time. Incidentally, one of Smith's recent signees, non-drafted RH reliever Will Childers, was listed today by MLB Pipeline as one to watch in Wednesday's Rule 5 draft. The other Area Scout to depart is Adam Hayes, who covered the Arizona territory. Hayes' most recent farmhand of note was RHP Tyler Woessner, who, unfortunately, was released this past June. However, in this day and age when MLB organizations are trimming traditional scouting staffs, it's solid news that the Brewers are holding steady in their personnel count. Backfilling the spots for those who graduated to Regional Coordinator are Dexter Swims, Andrew Snyder , and Chaz Crawford. Congratulations to the new area scouts! Swims and Snyder in particular were listed as "Development Scouts" previously. In fact, back in November 2024, we linked you to a feature story and video interview with Swims. Speaking of "Development Scouts", Jamie Hurtado joins the organization in that role. He joins the existing Development Scout, Donovan Simon. Folks have asked what the best way to learn a player's signing scout is. It would be great if the Brewers made their Digital Media Guide a bit more online-friendly, and of course, we sorely miss the printed version. Here's the link to the 2025 Media Guide from March. Once you arrive, click the down-pointing arrow at the top of the screen. This gives you the choice to print, download, or choose thumbnails. You may not want to choose a massive print on your home printer, it's 402 pages long! However, the pages for minor league diehards to focus on are the player bios, and that's pages 216 (Christopher Acosta) through 262 (Johan Zapata). Those pages will show the signing scout for each bio (players who were on the 40-man roster at the time are listed in an earlier section of the media guide, and, obviously, players from the July 2025 draft are not included). Here's the screenshot discussed to open this article. It would be nice if the area covered by each scout were also listed. That was the case a few years back, but that has become protected information in recent years. Quite often, a Google or LinkedIn search can provide clues, but it's quite the chore. As noted, I look forward to learning about updates within other areas of the organization in the coming days. View the full article

While the San Diego Padres are strapped for cash and have a lot of work to do on their rotation, they've added some bullpen depth via free agency. According to their official X account, the San Diego Padres have signed pitcher Daison Acosta to a one-year deal. Acosta, who has yet to debut at 27 years old, was an international free agent signed by the New York Mets in 2016. He was then acquired by the Washington Nationals via the Rule 5 draft in 2023. Used solely as a reliever over the last three seasons, Acosta has posted solid strikeout rates but has struggled with walks. If he sticks on the Major League roster after spring training, he'll likely be deployed as a low-leverage reliever before being trusted with a larger role. View the full article

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet has reported that the Blue Jays are interested in Robert Suarez, one of the top relievers in this free agent class. Nicholson-Smith says that the interest has not yet moved into negotiations. The 2025 Blue Jays bullpen finished the regular season with a bullpen FIP- of 94, ranked 5th among MLB relief units. Jeff Hoffman handled the ninth inning, with Seranthony Domínguez, Yariel Rodríguez, Louis Varland, and Brendon Little working the highest-leverage situations. Over the final month of the regular season, Toronto relievers posted a 3.42 ERA and 3.60 FIP, ranking ninth and seventh in the league, respectively. Suarez has four MLB seasons with San Diego, beginning in 2022. From 2022 through 2025, he threw 210 innings, striking out 219 batters. In 2025, he appeared in 70 games and pitched 69 2/3 innings, with a 2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 75 strikeouts, and 40 saves. View the full article

On December 4, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney reported in The Athletic that the Dodgers are listening to trade proposals for Teoscar Hernandez. Should the Royals consider a move for Hernandez? It isn’t a secret that the Royals need help in the outfield, ranking last in outfield fWAR, according to FanGraphs. Royals’ GM J.J. Picollo has also been open about being active in the trade market for outfield upgrades. Would Hernandez be the right player to pursue? The Argument for Hernandez Hernandez would represent an immediate upgrade to the Royals’ current outfield options. Even in a down year compared to his Silver Slugger-worthy performances of the past, Hernandez still had a decent season at the plate in 2024. Last year, he posted a 102 wRC+. By comparison, the Royals outfielders combined for a 70 wRC+. Hernandez offers consistent power. He has belted at least 25 home runs in his last five seasons and is consistently above average in Statcast metrics like barrel %, exit velocity, and hard hit %. His ability to generate hard contact stands in stark contrast to the current crop of Royals outfielders. Barrel % Exit Velocity Hard Hit % Hernandez 2025 11.5% 90.2 mph 46.1% MLB Average 7.2% 88.6 mph 37.0% In short, Hernandez’s underlying offensive data is strong enough to suggest that he would elevate the Royals’ outfield offensive production. However, the bar for improvement is quite low. The Argument Against Hernandez Hernandez will be entering his age-33 season next year, and after signing for the Dodgers before the 2024 season, he is still under contract for another two guaranteed years with a team option in 2028 and a vesting option in 2029. In that time, Hernandez is guaranteed $48.3 million. That would make his contract effectively around $24 million per year, assuming the Royals do not enact the team option. For a small-market team like the Royals, that contract is prohibitive and difficult to justify, especially for a player past or exiting his prime. Even if there is a trade that includes the Dodgers paying a portion of Hernandez’s salary, there are many indicators that he is not the best fit for the Royals. Hernandez is well below average in strikeout rate, walk rate, swing and misses, chase rate, and expected on-base percentage. Even the metrics he grades better on have shown major regression in his last season. Barrel rate, exit velocity, slugging percentage, and isolated power all dropped to below the 80th percentile after mainly being above the 90th percentile during his career. Other metrics, such as speed, arm strength, and bat speed, are on the decline and show clear signs of aging for Hernandez. There has also been some regression to the mean in his wRC+ and fWAR since 2020, and his 2024 season looks more like an outlier than the norm. This same trend is mirrored in his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Another issue is Hernandez’s defense. According to Statcast, since 2018, he has only registered a positive run value in two years, with 2024 and 2025 being his worst seasons. His outs above have also never been positive during his career. According to FanGraphs, Kauffman Stadium has the largest outfield by area, which is a lot of ground to cover for someone whose sprint speed is also deteriorating. Considering all of his defensive struggles and aging, it is likely that Hernandez is destined to become a designated hitter sooner rather than later. At a salary of effectively $24 million per season, that is a lot of salary to allocate to a likely designated hitter who is also regressing to being a league-average hitter. In Parting It would be very surprising if the Royals seriously entertained a trade involving Teoscar Hernandez. For this to make sense for Kansas City, there would have to be the perfect mix of prospects, and the Dodgers would have to retain a significant portion of his salary. Even in that scenario, the Royals would need to be convinced that his offensive regression will not continue and that he would remain somewhat competent defensively. Both of these conditions seem unlikely. View the full article