DiamondCentric

With the Winter Meetings on the horizon, there's no roster that's truly set in stone. MLB fans will see a flurry of trades and free agency moves as teams prepare for 2026 and the uncertainty beyond it. The Chicago Cubs are in one of the more complex situations in baseball. On one hand, they stormed back into relevancy by making the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and winning their first playoff series since 2017. On the other hand, they relied heavily on journeyman veterans who had career years, and it's looking like a foregone conclusion Kyle Tucker will sign somewhere else this winter. Even with his second-half struggles, the Cubs' offense would not have carried the team in the first half without the .926 OPS Tucker produced through the Midsummer Classic. When a team loses a player of that caliber, it's hard to anticipate the offense taking a step forward. Prior to any big moves Here is a look at the Cubs’ current depth chart for the corner outfield in a post-Kyle Tucker world. Right Field Let's start with the position that Tucker is vacating right field. Due to his injury, we did see Craig Counsell switch Tucker and Seiya Suzuki between right and DH late in the season and the playoffs. As things currently stand, Seiya is the starting right fielder, and that likely will not change unless there is a big free-agent signing. After hitting a career-high 32 home runs in 2025, Counsell will try to keep his bat in the middle of the lineup for the duration of the 2026 season. Defensively, having Pete Crow-Armstrong in center can help mitigate Suzuki’s shortcomings in the outfield. This is not to say Suzuki is inherently a poor outfielder, but the Cubs’ pitching relied on their excellent defense throughout 2025, so replacing Tucker with Suzuki for the majority of games is a blow that the pitching staff will surely feel at some point. Owen Caissie is the in-house option to replace Tucker that would allow Suzuki to spend more time at DH. Caissie remains the team’s top offensive prospect going into 2026 and will likely be a big part of the team’s plans in some way. In 2025, he only had 26 at-bats in the big leagues, where he tallied five hits, including a home run. There are two issues with moving Caissie to the top of the depth chart for right field. First, he was never regarded as a plus defender at any point in his minor-league career. He has a plus arm, and he moves around well enough for a bigger player, but he is not the Gold Glover that Kyle Tucker has been. The second issue with Caissie is the fear that throwing him into the starting lineup right out of the gate could create a similar situation that we saw at third base in 2025. Matt Shaw was largely underwhelming in 2025, and outside of a few hot streaks, he looked overmatched by major-league pitching. Caissie has more margin for error thanks to his prodigious power, but banking on a rookie to provide even 70% of what Tucker was in 2025 is pure foolishness. If the Cubs do end up pursuing a player like Alex Bregman or Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami as an upgrade over Shaw, it will take some pressure off Caissie to be an immediate difference maker. Left Field In left field, four-time Gold Glove winner Ian Happ will be the starter yet again. Although he had a slower start to 2025, he still put up the type of numbers we expect. He slashed .243/.342/.420 with 23 home runs and 79 RBI. The 31-year-old should produce similar numbers as he heads into the last year of the three-year, $61 million contract he signed in April of 2023. Much like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch, Happ in left is one of the lineup locks for the Cubs in 2026. The only other full-time outfielder on the 40-man roster is prospect Kevin Alcantara. Alcantara has been a fixture on the team’s top prospect rankings since they acquired him from the Yankees in the Anthony Rizzo trade. It is seemingly now or never for Alcantara to get his longer audition on the MLB roster, and like Caissie, he could also be included in trade rumors during this offseason. Alcantara is a speedy outfielder with a strong arm and some power, but his 6’6 frame suggests he should be able to tap into more of it. In 2025, Alcantara had four hits in 11 at-bats with the Cubs, but also struck out in four of those at-bats as well. He is a natural center fielder, but with Crow-Armstrong entrenched there, Alcantara will be vying for playing time at all three outfield positions. After the prospects, there are not too many notable names on the roster. First-round pick Ethan Conrad might have a spot on this list a year from now, but as it stands, there are not a ton of depth options outside of Alcantara. Infielder James Triantos got a few looks in left and center in 2025, and was added to the 40-man roster this November, but he will need to improve upon his .259 MiLB batting average in 2025, which fell from .300 in 2024. The next-highest prospect who isn’t in the lower levels of the minors is Brett Bateman. A contact-before-power hitter, Bateman played the entirety of 2025 with the Knoxville Smokies. He hit .261 with a .683 OPS in 94 games. He has a keen awareness of the strike zone and rarely swings and misses, but gets on base through ground balls that find holes. Bateman may have a role as a backup MLB outfielder one day, but that seems to be his ceiling. Corner outfielder Jordan Nwogu put up his best statistical season with Double-A Knoxville in 2025, hitting .280 in 368 plate appearances, although his power has evaporated. The 2020 third-round pick out of the University of Michigan will be 27 years old before Opening Day and is not much of a prospect anymore. Likewise, 2021 seventh-round pick Parker Chavers was promoted to Triple-A Iowa in 2025 but only had 15 hits in 101 plate appearances, which was good for a .176 batting average. At this point, neither Chavers or Nwogu look like a reliable major-league contributor. The Cubs will need to look for depth on the trade or free-agent market for 2026. Even if they decide not pursue a big name to replace Tucker, there are still players available who can be quality backups in case players like Alcantara or Caissie don’t deliver. Some of the names that could intrigue the Cubs are a reunion with Willi Castro or Mike Tauchman. They could also look to employ a part-time player like Austin Hays, Randall Grichuk, Tommy Pham, Lane Thomas or Alex Verdugo, among many other battle-tested veterans available this offseason. View the full article

Getting a productive outfield bat seems to be priority number one for JJ Picollo and the Kansas City Royals front office. After all, they ranked last in outfield fWAR, according to Fangraphs, and he's been open to the media about possibly trading from their starting pitching depth to get the outfielder they need to improve the lineup in 2026. While the Royals are open to a trade to acquire an outfielder, the free agent market has a lot of outfield possibilities. One candidate who could improve the Royals' outfield and lineup is Cody Bellinger, who's ranked No. 8 in DiamondCentric's Top-50 Free Agents list. Here's what Matt Trueblood of DiamondCentric said about Bellinger in his write-up. After posting a 108 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR in 569 plate appearances in 2024, his final season with the Cubs, Bellinger had a resurgence with the Yankees last season. He posted a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR in 656 plate appearances and also hit 29 home runs and collected 98 RBI, 11 and 20 more than his totals in 2024 in those categories, respectively. Hence, it is not surprising that Bellinger is projected to earn a multi-year deal in the $25+ million AAV range this offseason and is already attracting interest from many teams, including the Phillies and even the Angels. If the Royals were to pursue Bellinger, it would require a significant long-term commitment from owner John Sherman. While Kansas City is a small-market team, it has not been averse to big deals in the past. That is evidenced by their mega extension to Bobby Witt Jr. before the 2024 season and their multi-year deals with Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo in the past calendar year. However, while Bellinger at the surface level could provide a boost to the Royals' lineup in the short and long term, the underlying metrics hint at a hitter who could struggle in his transition to Kauffman Stadium, especially as an outfielder who will be 31 next July. Why Bellinger is Enticing for the Royals Bellinger checks a lot of boxes for the Royals at first glance, especially when looking at his surface-level and plate discipline metrics. Last season with the Yankees, the 30-year-old outfielder slashed .272/.334/.480 with an .813 OPS. In addition to hitting 29 home runs, scoring 89 runs, and collecting 98 RBI, he also showed decent speed on the basepaths with 13 stolen bases. He also had 20 stolen bases in 2023 and 14 in 2022, which displays that Bellinger can be a 20-20 HR-SB threat for any team that acquires him. While the results were strong last season, his plate discipline may have been even more impressive. With the Yankees, he posted a 13.7% K rate, the lowest of his career. Furthermore, he also generated an 8.7% walk rate, his highest mark in that category since 2021, when he was still a member of the Dodgers. Thus, he produced a 0.63 BB/K ratio, his best mark in that category since 2020 (when it was 0.71) and the third-best ratio of his career (he had a 0.88 ratio in 2019). Over the last three years, he has seen significant improvement in his BB/K ratio, going from 0.25 in 2022 to 0.46 in 2023 and 0.51 in 2024. Lastly, he ranked in the upper percentiles in whiff percentage and pulled the ball effectively with the Yankees. His overall pull percentage ranked in the 80th percentile, and Pull Air percentage ranked in the 90th percentile. Those two factors led to his home run success in the Bronx. Those are both clear in his Statcast summary profile via TJ Stats. The Royals' outfielders ranked 17th in BB/K ratio last season with a 0.35 mark, according to Fangraphs. That said, only one Royals outfielder posted a better ratio than Bellinger: Mike Yastrzemski, who sported a 1.14 BB/K ratio. The next closest Royals to Bellinger were Cavan Biggio and Nick Loftin, who both posted 0.52 ratios. Therefore, Bellinger could provide a disciplined, high-contact approach sorely needed in the middle of the Kansas City lineup next season. The Issue with Bellinger The main problem with Bellinger is two-fold: his pop is questionable, and his bat speed isn't encouraging. In terms of the former, it doesn't seem likely that Bellinger's profile would fare well in Kauffman Stadium's spacious dimensions. According to Statcast's xHR by Park measurement, only 22 of his 29 home runs would've been gone at the K last season. Over his career, only 158 of Bellinger's 235 home runs would be out at Kaffuman. The only park with lower xHR was Oracle Park in San Francisco (138). Visually, Royals fans can see that many of Bellinger's home runs would've fallen short. Below is a spray chart of his 2025 hits, applied to Kauffman's dimensions. Next, below is a clip of a home run Bellinger hit against the Cubs at Yankee Stadium. It would've only cleared out of four other stadiums in baseball. Unsurprisingly, Kauffman Stadium was not one of them. The batted-ball percentiles and bat speed don't paint a pretty picture for Bellinger's outlook in Kansas City either. Even though he nearly hit 30 home runs, he seemed to outperform his exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit metrics. His average exit velocity ranked in the 28th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 35th percentile, and his hard-hit rate ranked in the 28th percentile. His hard-hit percentage rolling chart also showcased him regressing heavily in the second half after a bit of a spike in the beginning of June. Bellinger was able to launch the ball well last season, as illustrated by his 38.6% LA Sweet-Spot percentage, which ranked in the 77th percentile. He is also able to square up the ball well, as his squared-up rate ranked in the 72nd percentile last year, according to Statcast. While those metrics are promising, his bat speed is the inverse. Last year, his bat speed averaged 70.1 MPH, which ranked in the 20th percentile according to Statcast. For context, that bat speed would be the seventh-worst mark of Royals hitters with 100 or more swings last season, as illustrated in the table below. In addition to the slow average swing velocity, his 6.5% hard-swing rate is the fifth-worst mark as well. He also would've sported the second-longest swing of this group at 7.8 feet. Long swings tend to lead to a lot of whiffs (notice Salvador Perez has the longest swing of this sample, and he had a 19.5% K rate last season). Thus, any regression in Bellinger's plate discipline could lead to a lot more swings and misses, and thus, strikeouts. That isn't exactly the profile the Royals would want from a hitter expected to be a long-term mainstay at the three-to-five spots in the batting order. Bellinger Isn't Worth the Cost There's no question that any available hitter the Royals are targeting this offseason will have warts in their profile. That said, as one of my friends and Inside the Crown writer David Lesky noted in a chat, "it's one thing to get a guy with warts, it's another thing to get that kind of guy who's going to take up 15-20% of your team's payroll for several years." Matthew of DiamondCentric estimated Bellinger would command an AAV of about $22 million in his next deal. Spotrac is putting his market value at $30,449,698. That is essentially Witt money, and even then, Witt doesn't hit the $30 million AAV mark in his contract until 2028, according to Roster Resource. Bellinger is a good player, but he's not a Witt-esque one. He's a good complementary piece, but not one that can carry a team long-term, especially on a massive contract. If he were, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees wouldn't have let him go. A bad contract on an aging "fringe" star with questionable skills can be debilitating to a franchise. Just ask the Colorado Rockies, who learned the hard way with Kris Bryant, or the Angels with Anthony Rendon. Let's hope the Royals don't make that same mistake with Bellinger. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox are in an interesting situation when it comes to their catching depth, as the 2025 season showed they need to improve upon major-league-ready options in the event of an injury. While the team has a quality starter in Carlos Narváez, it gets a bit thin further down the depth chart. Remember when Connor Wong got hurt and missed significant time, and then again during a playoff push when Narváez himself was injured and missed a few games? While he returned to the lineup, it was clear he was not at 100% for the remainder of the season after rushing back. With that, we’re going to take a look at the current state of the Red Sox's catching depth, going over the various options who could (or shouldn't) serve as backup plans in 2026. MLB: Boston Red Sox Starter: Carlos Narváez (118 games, .241/.306/.419 .726 OPS, 27 2Bs, 15 HR, 50 RBIs) Acquired in a trade with the New York Yankees at last year's Winter Meetings, Narváez burst onto the scene after winning the starting position. Known for his defense, Narváez’s bat woke up as he was a key offensive piece for the team in the first half, often finding himself batting fourth for manager Alex Cora. Offensively, he began to regress in the second half as a career high in innings behind the plate coupled with a knee injury in August (that would require offseason surgery) caught up to him. Narváez looks to enter 2026 fully recovered and build off of a surprisingly strong rookie season. Backup: Connor Wong (63 games, .190/.262/.238 .500 OPS, 8 2Bs, 7 RBIs) To say 2025 was a disappointing season for Wong is an understatement. The catcher regressed more than expected from his breakout 2024 campaign, as he dealt with a fractured left pinky in April along with a carpal boss on the back of his hand throughout the season. Wong is expected to enter the 2026 season as the backup barring any unforeseen moves and should he play at a level between his 2024 and 2025 seasons, that will be perfectly fine. His second-half numbers saw a slight improvement as he hit .235/.292/.333 with eight doubles and six RBIs in 29 games. Defensively, he still has work to do as he was awful in nearly every catching category besides framing, where he was league average. Triple-A Worcester Starter: Jason Delay (68 games [AA Columbus Clingstones/AAA Gwinnett Stripers], .200/.261/.257 .518 OPS, 10 2Bs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs) Delay follows the pattern of the Red Sox signing a veteran catcher who has experience in the majors to a minor-league deal to be a depth option in Triple-A. They did it last year with Seby Zavala and in 2024 with Tyler Heineman. Delay was not signed because of his bat, being a career .231/.295/.315 hitter in 134 career games with the Pirates. Offensively, you won’t get much, if any, power from Delay, but he will occasionally walk and has hit left-handed pitching a little better as shown by a career .254/.315/.343 slash line against them. Defensively, he has allowed 87 stolen bases during his time in the majors and thrown out just 16 potential base stealers, though he has yet to allow a passed ball. Delay is meant to work with the pitchers and catchers in Worcester, and should an injury occur in Boston, would be the first backstop added to the roster barring any other moves this offseason. Backup: Nathan Hickey (128 games, .234/.325/.408 .733 OPS, 23 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 17 HR, 75 RBIs) Listing Hickey as a catcher at this point is due is more necessity than reality. Hickey, who was drafted as a catcher, appeared behind the plate in just four games in 2025 after appearing there in just 47 games the season prior. Defensively, he’s only caught around 10% of base stealers. He’s now more of a first baseman than a backstop, but can still catch if needed despite a below-average arm and trouble blocking pitches in the dirt. Offensively, he has good raw power but swings-and-misses a bit. Hickey also is patient and knows the strike zone well. If he makes it to Boston, it'll likely be as a DH or first base option rather than a catcher. Emergency catcher: Enderso Lira (6 games [AA Portland Sea Dogs/AAA Worcester Red Sox], .154/.313/.385 .698 OPS, 1 HR, 2 RBIs) Lira, who received the second-highest bonus of the Red Sox's 2021 international free agent class, barely played in 2025 as he was often bounced between Portland and Worcester to be an emergency body on the roster. Offensively, there isn’t much to write home about as he has a short, direct swing and knows the strike zone well but has next-to-no power. Defensively, he is solid behind the plate and has an above-average arm that has a chance to improve as he grows older. Double-A Portland Starter: Brooks Brannon (93 games [A+ Greenville Drive/AA Portland Sea Dogs], .251/.308/.393 .701 OPS, 16 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs) Brannon, who was drafted in 2022, finally stayed healthy enough to showcase the talents that had the Red Sox originally interested in him after his first two seasons were cut short due to injuries. Despite appearing in 93 games, he only caught in 49 of them and saw time at first base and designated hitter. Defensively, he’s got good receiving skills behind the plate but is still learning how to frame and call games. He will also struggle with blocking pitches in the dirt but has an above-average arm. Offensively, he is able to generate impressive bat speed but will need to improve swing decisions. His power, however, is real, and when he does make contact, the ball is hit hard. It could be his carrying tool to the majors. Backup: Ronald Rosario (98 games, .201/.278/.321 .599 OPS, 10 2Bs, 11 HRs, 56 RBIs) Rosario, who is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, signed with the Red Sox in July of 2019 and made his Double-A debut in 2025 after ending the 2024 season on Portland’s development list. Rosario is aggressive at the plate and has yet to work counts on a frequent basis. He also seems to struggle against velocity, as most of his damage has been against fastballs in the low-90s or slower. Defensively, he appears to move well but can be error-prone when fielding the ball behind the dish. View the full article

The Miami Marlins were among the teams in pursuit of free agent outfielder Cedric Mullins before he reached a one-year, $7 million agreement with the Tampa Bay Rays, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Fish On First heard the same from a source familiar with the club's thinking. The 31-year-old Mullins would have been a potential bounce-back candidate after posting 1.3 fWAR in 2025, his lowest ever in a full-length season. Even without starting on a daily basis, he continued to provide an intriguing combination of power (17 HR) and speed (22 SB) while also drawing walks at a career-high 10% rate. However, the quality of his defense in center field has slipped. It's unclear whether the Marlins intended to use Mullins in center or transition the former All-Star to a corner spot in deference to Jakob Marsee. It caught FOF off-guard last month when the Marlins were linked to Mike Yastrzemski (who remains available). Although they aren't targeting left-handed outfielders per se to add to a group that already includes Marsee, Kyle Stowers and Griffin Conine, they are open-minded to veterans with good offensive track records and a willingness to accept short-term deals. View the full article

What a way to begin the offseason! The first major free agent came off the board on Wednesday, and unlike in past off-seasons, it was the Blue Jays who made the first strike, signing right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, with the hopes that not only would the 30-year-old lead the Blue Jays to postseason glory in 2026, but throughout the deal. It's not hard to see why the Jays targeted Cease; no pitcher in baseball has more strikeouts over the last five seasons. He has finished top five in Cy Young voting twice in his career, and he’s been incredibly durable, making at least 32 starts in every season since 2021. Pair all that with the fact that he seems to be a good fit in the clubhouse and that there may be some more untapped potential in his arm, and it's a no-brainer to see why the Blue Jays were willing to make him their ace for the next seven years. With any free agent signing, especially one of this magnitude, there is always risk involved. What if all the walks and fly balls he allows catch up to him? And what if he actually does get hurt? All of those concerns are valid, and honestly, there isn't a pitcher in baseball who doesn’t come with at least some level of concern, but it's that last point in particular that should be explored more. Pitcher health is never a for-sure thing, but the Blue Jays have historically been able to do a good job of keeping their veteran starting pitchers healthy. Kevin Gausman has made 30+ starts in each of his four seasons in Toronto, Chris Bassitt did the same in his three years here, and, dating back to additions like Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Berríos, many of the starters they have brought into the organization have stayed healthy. Is this simply because the team can identify which pitchers will hold up physically? Is this something the coaching and medical staff can teach? Or is there some amount of luck involved? The most likely answer is that it's probably a little bit of all three, but pitcher injuries are rampant all over baseball, and the Blue Jays are going to have to make sure the staff stays healthy if they want to repeat as American League champions in 2026. As things currently stand, the rotation of Gausman, Cease, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Berríos, and the newly acquired Cody Ponce looks good on paper, but it does come with some concerns. Yesavage took a massive innings leap in ‘25, Gausman is entering his age-35 season, Berríos ended the year on the injured list, Bieber is still building back up from Tommy John, and as good as Ponce was in the KBO, returning to MLB comes with its uncertainties as well. So, it's crucial that Cease stays healthy and effective on the mound, as pitching injuries could be a significant downfall for the 2026 Jays team. Father Time comes for everyone, and it will come for the Blue Jays pitchers, too. Aaron Nola was long known as one of the most durable pitchers in baseball. He had made 30+ starts in seven straight seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season) until the injury bug got to him, as he made only 17 starts in 2025. Gerrit Cole is another example. From 2017 to 2023, he was the model of consistency. However, at the age of 33, he missed the first 75 games of the season due to an elbow injury, which ultimately led to him missing the entire 2025 season as he underwent Tommy John surgery. Now, this isn't just a problem that the Blue Jays are trying to solve; pitching injuries have been an epidemic around Major League Baseball. It got to the point where, in December of 2024, the league released a study that it called MLB’s Report on Pitcher Injuries. There's a lot to it, but some key findings were that velocity chasing, pitch design trends, and max-effort throwing all put more pressure on the elbow and shoulder, contributing to an increased risk of injury. Now, to turn this back to Dylan Cease, his fastball velocity was the highest of his career in 2025, averaging 97.1 mph, and it wasn't just his fastball that saw a velocity spike: His four-seam fastball, slider, and knuckle curve were all thrown at the hardest average velocity of his career, and the spin rates on each pitch were at or near his career highs as well. Now, there is a lot more that leads to injuries than just throwing harder. There are several cases of pitchers throwing harder and continuing to have success. There’s no reason to think Cease couldn't follow that path. Yet, injuries can feel random at times. Yimi García injured his ankle when he slipped getting into a cold tub back in July. In 2015, Michael Saunders injured his knee by just stepping on a sprinkler head, and all the way back in 1993, Rickey Henderson got frostbite because he left an ice pack on his leg too long and had to miss three games. The real question becomes, do the Blue Jays know what it will take to keep Cease healthy? In reality, they just might. They have a proven track record of doing so, and according to reporting by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, Cease has already met with pitching coach Pete Walker and assistant pitching coach Sam Greene, who answered questions about how they could help him grow into a true number one starter. One can assume that included coming up with a plan to keep him on the mound. The Blue Jays just made their biggest financial investment in a free agent in franchise history. So, no matter how you look at it, the team is going to be relying on Cease heavily as they look to repeat as American League champions. Keeping him healthy and effective will go a long way toward making that dream a reality. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays had an interesting visitor stop by their Florida facility on Wednesday. Would you believe that it was free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker? That's the news spreading around MLB circles on Wednesday night. According to Robert Murray, MLB Insider for FanSided, Tucker indeed made a visit to the facility. The Blue Jays have already been busy in the free agent market, with the Winter Meetings set to kick off on Sunday in Orlando, Fla. Toronto has added Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to its pitching staff. What would it mean if the Blue Jays, who desperately want to get back to the World Series after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers, could bring Tucker to play at Rogers Centre? It would be an incredible addition for Blue Jays manager John Schneider and his team. Imagine Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the same starting lineup, mashing baseballs all around MLB ballparks. Let's take a look at some numbers and data concerning Tucker. He was the fifth overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft by the Houston Astros. He spent seven seasons with the Astros, winning two World Series titles while there. Tucker had a slash line of .274/.353/.516 with 125 home runs and 417 RBIs for Houston. But Tucker was traded to the Cubs in December 2024 for infielder Isaac Paredes, right-handed pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and outfielder Cam Smith. Tucker's final numbers with the Cubs were decent, but they really slid down later in the season after he got off to a really hot start. Overall, Tucker posted a slash line of .266/.377/.474, hit 22 homers, and stole 25 bases. He also drew 87 walks, making sure he got on base as much as possible for the Cubs' big hitters behind him. The Blue Jays are also interested in bringing back free agent infielder Bo Bichette, too. What would the Jays do if they end up signing Tucker? Would they just let Bichette go? Or, could they look to maybe sign both of them? That would really stretch their pocketbook. All we can say for now is that with the Winter Meetings starting up in a few days, it will soon be time for the Blue Jays and Tucker's representatives to have some heart-to-heart conversations. View the full article

After signing Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce to kick off their offseason, the Blue Jays find themselves with a surplus of starting pitchers. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Trey Yesavage are locks for the 2026 rotation, as is Cease. That leaves one spot left for Ponce and José Berríos, unless the Jays are planning to use a six-man cycle. Berríos, who has started more games than any other pitcher in MLB over the last eight years, has three years and just over $64 million remaining on his contract. Yet, it seems unlikely the Jays would have committed $30 million to Ponce, the reigning KBO MVP, if they weren't going to give him a chance to start. One way to clear up the rotation logjam could be a trade, and to that point, The Athletic's Mitch Bannon reports that the Blue Jays are "willing to listen" to trade offers for Berríos. That doesn't mean a deal is likely, especially since Berríos is coming off a down year that ended with an elbow injury. In other words, it might be hard to find a taker for the veteran and his contract. Still, a Berríos trade is now a possibility that Jays fans must at least consider. So, do you think the Jays should shop Berríos? Which teams do you think might be interested, and what would you be looking for in return? Have your say in the comments below! Featured image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images. View the full article

On December 2, the Toronto Blue Jays announced that their seven-year, $210 million contract with Dylan Cease had been finalized. Today on X, the New York Post's Jon Heyman reported the financial structure of the deal. When the Cease deal was first reported, pending the results of a physical, it was widely believed that the contract included deferrals. According to Heyman and others, the total amount deferred will be $64 million. The salary to be paid from 2026-2032 is $123 million, plus a $23 million signing bonus. Also, the contract contains a limited no-trade clause. The timing of the deferred payments Toronto will make to Cease was not reported. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported that the AAV of the deal was close to $27 million ($189 million divided by seven). That would make the present value of the deferrals for Competitive Balance Tax (“CBT”) purposes approximately $43 million ($189 million less $146 million in salary and bonus). It should be noted that under the CBA, teams must fund a deferral by the second July 1 following the season in which the deferral was earned. In other words, Toronto would have to fund the $10 million deferral for 2026 by July 1, 2028. The amount funded is the present value of the deferred amount using a 5% discount rate. A rough estimate is that Toronto's first funding payment will be approximately $7.5 million. From the team’s perspective, the primary advantage of deferrals is the reduction of the AAV used for CBT purposes. Given that Toronto pays the CBT, every little bit helps! Featured image courtesy of Denis Poroy, Imagn Images. View the full article

The Cubs face a daunting challenge of pitching management for 2026. They should get Justin Steele back about halfway through the season, but they'll need to monitor and limit his workload. Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Cade Horton are all a full go for next season, but each missed time in 2025 with injuries, which increases the chances that they'll do so again next year. That's why they extended a qualifying offer to Imanaga, even after extending Colin Rea. It's why they're still looking for upgrades to a rotation that nominally boasts six or seven viable starters. Matthew Boyd will be another source of uncertainty in that group. He pitched 180 innings in the regular season and made three more starts in the playoffs, a year after making just eight regular-season appearances in a return from Tommy John surgery. Boyd wore down in the second half and hit the wall completely in October, and now, his 2026 season is scheduled for an early start. On Wednesday afternoon, Boyd made an appearance on Foul Territory, a popular web show and podcast, to announce his plans to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic next March. The last time the WBC was contested, Japan beat the United States in the final game, thanks largely to better pitching depth. With rare exceptions, Team USA has struggled to find high-end hurlers willing to risk the nudge to their odometer that comes from ramping up to high-intensity competition earlier. Boyd might only pitch twice during the tournament, but it will mean preparing more and earlier during the offseason and ramping up faster early in spring training. That will exacerbate the risk of fatigue from Boyd late in the season, and reduce the chances that he's still going strong come October. Thus, the Cubs have yet another reason to be ready; to be wary; and to load up on pitching. Steele will be more of a second-half factor. Jaxon Wiggins could be, too, if he stays healthy. Boyd might not be the only Cubs hurler to pitch in the WBC, though. It's very possible that Imanaga, Javier Assad and/or Daniel Palencia will also get the call. Every pitcher whom the team sends to the global tournament is one who's more likely to find trouble down the stretch. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins have to be assiduous in continuing to add, so they can absorb whatever losses occur as the season wears on. In the meantime, this is further expansion for the Cubs' global brand, and more importantly, it's fun. The WBC is a delightful event, and although it might not be good for the MLB teams who allow their pitchers to participate, it's good that it exists (and continues to grow). Boyd's presence will make an exciting tournament even more so, and increases the chances of the United States reclaiming the title they last won in 2017. That, in itself, is reason to celebrate the news. View the full article

We don't know the extent to which the Chicago Cubs attempted (or might still attempt) to keep Kyle Tucker on the North Side long-term. The fact that they (seemingly) aren't pushing to retain him is an indictment of the organization's way of doing business. In all likelihood, they'll have a new right fielder in 2026—and it's likely someone already in-house. The most likely scenario is that Seiya Suzuki resumes his role (at least part-time) on the outfield grass, freeing up the team to rotate different bats through the designated hitter spot. While his defensive shortcomings were part of the reason he was pushed out upon Tucker's arrival last offseason, there's a certain flexibility attached to not having a permanent designated hitter. It would also allow the Cubs to ease in some of their imminent arrivals from the farm who are destined for more permanent roles in 2026. Most notable among that cohort is Owen Caissie. Let's step into fantasy land for a moment. Assume a world wherein Suzuki retains his post as the team's designated hitter, with Caissie taking the full-time gig in right field. If such a world exists, is it possible that he'd be able to approximate the production that Tucker generated in his lone season with the Cubs? The important distinction to make before diving into such an imaginary world is that this thread is not about whether Caissie can be Tucker, in a broad sense. When healthy, Tucker is one of the best all-around players in the major leagues. It’s fairer, though, to ponder whether the 2026 iteration of Caissie can provide the Cubs with something akin to what they got from 2025 Kyle Tucker, and only that version of him. Tucker's 2025 campaign included a .266/.377/.464 line, with nearly identical strikeout (14.7%) and walk (14.6%) rates. He hit 22 homers, stole 25 bases, and ended the year with a 136 wRC+ that trailed only Michael Busch among Cubs regulars. His 4.5 fWAR lagged only Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.4) and Nico Hoerner (4.8). His defense wasn't quite at the level of years prior in the eyes of the metrics, but his Fielding Run Value (which accounts for both range and arm) was 0, so he was essentially average. That year was far from Tucker's best, but the all-around play for which he's known shone through. The approach was elite; the power showed up when he was healthy; and he was strong on the bases. Factor in the adequate defense and you've got a player succeeding from pretty much every angle, even when accounting for some second half struggles wrought by health issues. Is that something that the Cubs could possibly hope for Caissie to replicate? Probably not. Caissie made 433 trips to the plate with Iowa in 2025. He carried a .286/.386/.551 line, with 22 home runs and five steals. His strikeout rate lingered around 28%, while he walked at a 13.2% clip. His wRC+ came in at 139. His 27 plate appearances in the big leagues showed where the adjustment will be needed, as he struck out 11 times, walked just once, and wasn't able to get the power going within such a minuscule sample (.154 ISO). Even if you translated Caissie’s production from Triple A directly to the next level, you're not getting the all-around production someone like Tucker provides. He lacks the approach, and he's not the same quality of baserunner. At best, you're getting the power that Tucker had and some of the ability to work a walk. Perhaps even more so, considering Caissie’s power upside. The strikeout avoidance and the steals are glaring areas where Tucker's departure would be notable, should Caissie assume a full-time role. One does have to wonder, though, the impact that an upgrade in the power alone could have on the offense considering the wealth of contact and baserunning skills that exist throughout the rest of this lineup. For what it's worth, STEAMER projects a .237/.315/.405 line (good for a 103 wRC+) in 322 plate appearances for Caissie in 2026. Given that we don't know what his role for next season will look like, it's a justifiably conservative projection. It would, though, seem to indicate that Caissie would be cycling through as more of a reserve outfielder and designated hitter than an actual outfield regular. That should probably be the expectation at this point, given Suzuki's prior work in right field. It’s also important to consider the idea that perhaps the Cubs don’t need the replication of Tucker’s production to come solely from that position. Moisés Ballesteros is going to be a factor in all of this, too. STEAMER likes him for a .266/.330/.408 line (108 wRC+) and a more aesthetically pleasing output in the strikeout (17.2%) and walk (8.2%) rates. With him as part of the equation, you’re introducing two left-handed hitters with different swings and different skill sets. Add Suzuki in and you’re cycling three players through two spots, allowing Craig Counsell to deploy any of the trio within the platoon advantage that can maximize outcomes. That element starts to get the Cubs in a direction where they’re able to work toward getting the same (if not better) production in the aggregate, rather than relying on a single player to do so. It changes the calculus altogether. Ultimately, the Cubs don't need Caissie (or Ballesteros, for that matter) to be Tucker, but they're going to need to find ways to at least replicate some of the all-around production he provided throughout much of last season. If Caissie can provide coverage in the areas where he excels (power and getting on base), that would be a massive boon to the group at large, even if the other areas where Tucker contributed suffer as a result. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins aren't actually good, right now. They have the potential to be, if they get more from their latent talent in 2026 than they have gotten from many of the same players over the last two years, but they're not currently a competitive team. As they embark on their offseason work, they have to hope they can spend some money to support the roster and take it to the next level. Unfortunately, the opposite course might be their required path. Let's imagine that the Twins' budget is as tight as we've all worried it would be. In that case, they're not only unlikely to make a significant investment to improve at first base or DH or to shore up their thin bullpen, but in danger of having to trade one or more of their expensive (though stellar) veterans: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Pablo López and Joe Ryan. They would, therefore, have virtually no chance of surging back into contention. They'd also start feeling both time and personal pressure to move Buxton (who wants to play for a winner) and Jeffers (a free agent after 2026), in particular. Meanwhile, another lost year would mean launching the clock forward on López and Ryan, each of whom can be free agents at the end of the 2027 season. In such a situation, there's a case to be made that the Twins would be best served by hitting the big red button and blowing up the current roster, in a more profound way than they did at the 2025 trade deadline. That's particularly true because of the young talent they've already amassed, and the influx they're likely to see next July. MLB Pipeline ranked the Twins as the second-best farm system in baseball after the deadline. bolstered by the haul from their July fire sale. FanGraphs is much less bullish, ranking them just 12th, but even that is above-average. The truth likely lies somewhere in between, for the moment, with Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Eduardo Tait as the big four in a very deep group. They also have some good young players in the majors already, under long-term team and cost control. Luke Keaschall is the face of that cohort, but it also includes several intriguing pitchers. So far, the team hasn't gotten the big-league production for which they might have hoped from Zebby Matthews or David Festa, and it's still not clear what Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya will become, but there's a good deal of young talent clustered around the big-league roster already. That group will be supplemented, if the Twins have gotten their recent reorganization in Latin America right, by new waves of teenage talent from that part of the world. They have Eduardo Beltre, a 2026 breakout candidate, and added some exciting players from the low minors in July—though they then fired several of the scouts who helped find them. Much more quickly and tangibly, they should get help from a high pick in the first round of next summer's MLB Draft. They won't know exactly where they pick in July until the MLB Draft Lottery at next week's Winter Meetings, but they have roughly a 50/50 shot of nabbing a top-three selection. They also officially received a competitive-balance pick this week, though it won't come until the tail end of the second round. It's not an easy needle to thread, but the Twins could end up with a once-in-a-generation farm system by the 2026 trade deadline. If they trade players as good and valuable as Buxton, López or the others, theirs will become the best farm system anyone has had in the 2020s. That's not the same as having the best farm system in the game at a given moment; it's a much bigger thing. When people talk about teams who plunge into rebuilding with gusto (or even glee), they often cite the 2010s Cubs and Astros. Those clubs are sometimes held responsible, in public circles, for the culture of tanking and aggressive boom-bust team-building that took over the game in their wake. In truth, though, those teams were merely responding to the rules and incentives the game foisted on them when the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement altered the nature of draft spending and the competitive-balance tax. They were also scrambling to make up for unintentional multi-year downturns. They had to take their medicine for almost a half-decade before emerging as powerhouses, but they each succeeded in doing so, to some degree. There was also an exemplar who came before those two teams. The late-2000s Royals were a bad team, but not on purpose. Frustrated by what he saw as a stagnating roster around him, ace Zack Greinke demanded a trade, and they accommodated him by shipping him to Milwaukee. In the wake of that deal, Kansas City was semi-voluntarily bad for another few years—but between some good draft picks, a couple of huge hits on Latin American talent, and the accelerant that was the Greinke trade, they also built the best farm system anyone had had in a decade or so. As was true with the Cubs and Astros, that eventually paid dividends. The Royals contended in 2013, though they missed the postseason with an 86-76 record. The next year, they snuck into the playoffs, but then reeled off an improbable run to Game 7 of the World Series. In 2015, they won a second straight pennant, and this time, they finished the job, winning their first championship since 1985 by beating the Mets in five games. With an aggressive set of rebuilding moves this winter and during the summer of 2026, the Twins could be an even faster-moving version of those Royals. They have Jenkins as one prospective cornerstone of the next great team. If the lottery breaks right, they should have a chance to add another player of that caliber. The rest comes down to continued successes in scouting and (especially) player development, because Keaschall, Culpepper, and many young arms already in the system have that kind of upside—but it must be realized to become important. Unlike the Royals, the Twins play in a market with average-plus ceiling, if they can dig out of the hole they find themselves in now. They have a higher initial baseline in their favor, and the rules won't drag on their attempts to sustain success the way they did with the Cubs and Astros. It only works if they raise the stakes and win their gamble, but the Twins might be better off trading some of their stars to go from a great farm system to a truly transcendent, change-your-fortunes kind of corps. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox need a first baseman—there’s no question about that. While Triston Casas is still on the roster, the young first baseman has shown an inability to remain on the field due to various injuries. While there have been tough luck injuries in the case of 2024 and 2025, not many bring up the fact that he missed significant time at the end of his rookie season in 2023 (his final game being on September 14) and only played in 103 games in 2022 between the minor leagues and Boston. While Casas states he plans to be ready for Opening Day, it’s highly likely he opens the year with Triple-A Worcester to get constant reps before coming back up to Boston. While the team had Nathaniel Lowe play first base for part of August and most of September, he wound up being designated for assignment and then non-tendered by the team to open up a roster spot on the 40-man roster. Now, the only healthy options currently on the 40-man roster are Romy González and Tristan Gray. Both are better in a utility role, moving around the field constantly. In González’s case he may be in line for significant play time at second base depending on how the rest of the offseason shapes out. With that, the Red Sox may be willing to move on from Casas due to his injury history and look towards what is a rather interesting first base group in this free agent class. Already one quality first baseman is gone as Josh Naylor re-signed with Seattle for five-years and $92.5 million. Despite Naylor being the first domino to fall, there are still plenty of options that could fit with the Red Sox. Pete Alonso (3.6 fWAR) Alonso is very much the top first baseman on the market and is DiamondCentric’s 10th overall free agent this offseason. He was previously a free agent last year before resigning with the New York Mets with an opt-out after the 2025 season in hopes that he would have a rebound season. To say that worked out would be an understatement. Playing in all 162 games for the second straight season, Alonso slashed .272/.347/.524, good for an OPS of .871 and a wRC+ of 141, tied for the second-best of his career. He also had 41 doubles, a triple, 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, which would have made him the team leader in home runs and RBIs and tied for the team lead in doubles with Jarren Duran. Alonso very much loves to swing big, having struck out 162 times last year, but his power output led to his fourth straight All-Star game selection, his first career Silver Slugger and his highest MVP finish since the 2022 season. What makes Alonso a great target is he hits the ball hard—really hard. His average exit velocity (93.5 mph), barrel percentage (18.9%), and hard-hit rate (54.4%) are all some of the highest in the league. And he fits right in with the team’s approach to increasing bat speed as his average was 75.3 mph. Of course, Alonso doesn’t come without his own fair share of issues. As a batter, he can be prone to chasing as he did 27.4% of the time last season while whiffing on 25.6% of his swings overall. Even then, his defense is what could be a real issue down the road. Last season, he finished with 10 errors and finished with a fielding percentage of .992. Dig deeper, and you'll find that Alonso finished last season with -9 defensive runs saved along with a fielding run value of -8 and an outs above average of -9. In short, he was a very bad fielder, even if his fielding percentage says otherwise. With Alonso entering his age-31 season and projected to earn a multi-year contract that would see him play into his late-30s, he will very likely be forced into becoming a full-time designated hitter. Munetaka Murakami Murakami has made a name for himself since 2019 when he truly broke out in his second season with the Yakult Swallows. Since becoming a starter that season, he has hit 30 or more homes in all but two of his years in Japan. In the case of those two seasons, he missed significant time and is coming off of a 2025 season that saw him hit 22 home runs in 56 games. For fairness, I’m only including his Central League stats and not his Eastern League stats since the Eastern League is the Pacific Central League’s equivalent to MLB’s minor leagues. In those 56 games, he would go on to hit .273/.379/.663, good for an OPS of 1.043. Yet most of his slugging came from his home runs, as he only hit seven doubles, a trend that continued from 2024 where he had just 13 doubles in 143 games. He also drove in 47 runs. Murakami can hit. There’s no denying that, as he has plus-plus exit velocity when he makes contact. When he makes contact is an issue, though, as he has significant swing-and-miss concerns where it seems sometimes he might be selling out at the plate to hit a home run. Last season in just 56 games, Murakami had a whiff rate of 36.7% and a strikeout rate of 28.6%, both an improvement over his 2024 numbers but still concerning when you remember that players from Japan tend to see their swing-and-miss numbers get worse in MLB. It could take some time for Murakami to adjust to velocity as he hit just .095 against pitches 93 mph or faster in 2025, a slight improvement from his 2024 average of .093. That being said, one positive besides his amazing power is that Murakami walks. Last year he had a 14.3% walk rate, Defensively, Murakami has played third base and first base along with a little outfield in the mix, but since 2021 has mainly been a third baseman. Though with 100 errors at the position in 1760 fielding chances, he is likely to play first base or even be a designated hitter with a MLB team. Should the Red Sox pursue him, it would most likely be as a first baseman. He will eventually be a great hitter, but the Red Sox may not want to spend time getting Murakami up to speed against major-league velocity. Some scouts believe he’ll have to change his swing if he wants to succeed in the majors and if the Red Sox are going to invest the money he’s expected to get (around $92 million as projected by DiamondCentric, plus a posting fee), the Red Sox need to make sure they get the right hitter for the job. Kazuma Okamoto Okamoto, who is also from Japan, is a more complex case than Murakami. While older (he’ll turn 30 at the end of June compared to Murakami entering his age-26 season), Okamoto may be more what the Red Sox are looking for in a first baseman. Much like Murakami, he missed significant time last year, playing in just 69 games where he hit .327/.416/.598 with a 1.014 OPS. He also had 21 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Okamoto has spent 11 years playing for the Yomiuri Giants where he has showcased great contact skills and displayed power to go with it, hitting .277/.361/.521 with 248 career home runs. Last season, Okamoto finished with the exact same walk and strikeout rate as well, 11.3%. Okamoto doesn’t hit the ball as hard as Murakami or Alonso, but he still rocked a hard-hit rate of 32.1% in 2025 and his contact skills may put him above the other two, as he made contact on 80.4% of his swings in 2025. He has the kind of skill set a competing team looks for in a first baseman: a combination of power and average, the ability to consistently put the ball in play and limit strikeouts, and work a double-digit walk rate. The latter showcased his keen eye and ability to work the strike zone. Likewise, Okamoto has improved his contact against velocity over the past few seasons, showing that he might transition from the NPB to MLB at a faster rate than Murakami. In his career, Okamoto has had a plate appearance end with pitches of 93 mph or faster 289 times. In those 289 plate appearances, Okamoto hit .289/.383/.534 with 19 home runs and 61 RBIs, far better numbers than his Japanese counterpart. Defensively, Okamoto has played first base, third base and outfield and is currently viewed as an above-average defender at first base, something that could prove to be a tie-breaking factor, especially for Craig Breslow as he hopes to improve the defense at first base in Boston. Okamoto may have the lowest ceiling of this trio, but he balances a reasonable floor with an acceptable price tag (projected for four years, $68 million). There are other first basemen out there, but these three seem to be the best fit for the Red Sox at the moment. Of course, should they decide to go in a different direction and make a big signing for third base or second base, they could always trade for a first baseman on a cheap contract or employ a platoon of Casas and González. Either way, infield upgrades should be coming to Boston soon enough. View the full article

The Royals will look to take a huge step forward this season after finishing 82-80, missing the wild card by five games. The team has made two trades early on, acquiring two depth pieces: center fielder Kameron Misner from the Rays and pitcher Mason Black from the Giants, in exchange for pitcher Logan Martin. The team will look to add an outfield power bat and a back-end starter after losing six players to free agency: reliever Hunter Harvey, outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, utility Adam Frazier, and starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen, catcher Luke Maile, and outfielder Randal Grichuk. With that being said, here are 10 players the Royals should trade/cut 10: Alec Marsh, RHP The Royals drafted Alec Marsh in the second round of the 2019 amateur draft out of Arizona State. In his senior year with the Sun Devils, he put together a 9-4 record with a 3.46 ERA with 99 punchouts. In the minors, he struggled, registering a 5.41 ERA, but had an impressive 11.4 K/9. He made his MLB debut in 2023, registering 74 innings with a 5.92 ERA, .486 xSLG, and .381 WOBA. He’d have a solid season in 2024, appearing in 26 games with a 9-9 record and 4.53 ERA and increasing his run value from -18 to -9 while improving his walk percentage from the bottom 12% to the top 64%. The 27-year-old missed the 2025 season with labrum surgery and isn’t expected to return till the 2027 season. The team is currently on the hook for $820,000 with the addition of Black, and the rise of Noah Cameron could see Marsh moved to a team for cash considerations or a prospect to be named later. 9: Nick Loftin, UTIL Nick Loftin was drafted 32nd overall by the Royals in the 2020 draft out of Baylor. With a contact-oriented approach and solid speed, he quickly rose the ranks in the system, including a breakout 2023 season with the Storm Chasers, slashing .270 with 14 home runs, 56 RBIs, .788 OPS, and drawing 34 walks. He’d make his debut later that season, appearing in 19 games, hitting .323 with 10 RBIs and racking up an OPS+ of 119 and rBAT+ of 124. Since then, he’s struggled at the dish with a 5.3 barrel percentage and 4.7 solid contact percentage. In the last two seasons, he’s hit .199 with five home runs and 34 RBI. However, he’s shown great plate discipline with a 23% chase percentage (5.4% below league average) and an 18% whiff rate (7% below league average), according to BaseballSavant. Loftin is projected to make $3 million in arbitration. With a struggling bat and above-average speed, a change of scenery could wake his silent bat, given his excellent plate discipline. 8: Lucas Erceg, RHP Lucas Erceg has been a reliable arm in a strong Royals bullpen since being acquired from the Royals in 2024 for Mason Bennett and Will Klein. Erceg appeared in 23 games for the Royals, putting up an ERA+ of 144 and finishing in the 82nd percentile in xERA and xwOBA. This season, he appeared in 61 games with an 8-4 record, 2.64 ERA, and two saves. His heater dominated, ranking in the top 8% in fastball evo (97.5) and the top 12% in groundball percentage (52). The 30-year-old is projected to get a $1.25 million raise in arbitration. A cheap contract for a guy who was a consistent arm for the team and had the second-lowest ERA out of the pen behind all-star closer Carlos Estevez. 7: Blake Mitchell, C Blake Mitchell, currently the #2 prospect in the organization, may be the odd man out, as the Royals extended Salvador Perez to a 2-year, $25 million deal, and the recent call-up of the team’s #1 prospect, Carter Jensen, suggests he could be on the trading block. The eighth-overall pick in 2023 has exhibited great plate discipline and power in the minors, sitting at a 55 overall scout rating with 60 power, 50 contact, 70 arm, and 55 fielding. He’s shown the ability to be a five-tool player, as in 486 plate appearances between high-A and Single-A, swiping 26 bases, crushing 18 home runs, and drawing 80 walks. This season, he struggled in high-A, hitting .207 in 169 at-bats with two home runs, 12 RBI, and nine stolen bases. However, he continued to show great plate discipline, drawing 45 walks. In the summer league, he tied for second in walks with 20 and seventh in runs with 20. With the catcher room full, and #9 prospect Ramon Ramirez nipping at his heels. The Royals could listen to offers from teams like the Padres, Rays, and Rangers, who are looking to add a future piece at the position. 6: Relief Pitcher Angel Zerpa Angel Zerpa joined the organization as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela in 2016, where he quickly rose through the ranks and eventually made his MLB debut on September 30, 2021, pitching five innings of two-run ball and allowing only three hits and one walk while fanning four. He didn’t break out until 2024, when he appeared in 60 games in the powder blue. Putting up a 2-0 record and 3.86 ERA. He had career highs in xBA (.249) and xSLG (.396). He placed 30th in groundball percentage at 59.2. This season, Zerpa continued to produce ground balls, posting a 63.7 ground ball rate, placing him sixth in MLB. He saw more success missing bats, setting career highs in K% (21.1), chase% (26.7), and whiff rate (16.4). The 26-year-old could draw strong interest from teams that are looking for young, high-upside pitching, as his asking price is projected to be around $1.25 million. View the full article

On the same day the Jays announced the signing of Dylan Cease to a $210 million deal, GM Ross Atkins was back at it, making another splash in the free agent pitching market, this time signing right-hander Cody Ponce to a three-year, $30 million deal. At first glance, guaranteeing that type of term and money to a 31-year-old that hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2021 is a bit of an eyebrow raiser, but when you take a peek at what Ponce was doing to hitters in the KBO last season, it starts to make some sense. Over 180.2 innings pitched for the Hanwha Eagles, Ponce absolutely dominated. He worked a 1.89 ERA with a strikeout rate of 36.2%. He only gave up 0.5 HR/9 and allowed a hard-hit rate of just 16.7% Those numbers translated to a 17-1 record and led him to win the KBO’s MVP award. Ponce left Major League Baseball for Japan’s NPB after struggling through a pair of seasons in Pittsburgh in 2020 and 2021, but he didn’t immediately flourish overseas. He worked his way through two solid, but not exactly eye-catching, seasons for the NPB’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters with an ERA in the mid-3.00s before signing with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles for the 2024 season. The 2024 season had to have been pretty disappointing for Ponce. Despite his strikeout and walk rates, hard-hit rate, and FIP remaining similar to those from his two previous NPB seasons, his ERA ballooned to 6.72 over 15 appearances and 12 starts. That’s part of what makes his dominant MVP campaign, at 30 years old, in a new league, so surprising. Ponce must have discovered something in his transition between NPB and the KBO. I have to credit Lance Brozdowski and his article dedicated to Ponce for just about all of the data I can provide in this Ponce breakdown, and if you’re interested in in-depth pitching breakdowns, his Substack is a must-read. Now, back to Ponce. The first thing to look at is his fastball velocity. He averaged 95.5 mph on his four-seamer while maxing out at 98.5 in 2025, up over two miles per hour from the previous season. That jump in velo, paired with Ponce’s impressive extension (he’s 6-foot-6), has to make him a pretty uncomfortable at-bat, and immediately makes it more believable that he can be successful in MLB. The other big change Ponce made was adding a change-up. That’s different from a splitter, but it is still the style of pitch we know the Jays have been enamoured with when targeting and developing pitchers. The change-up averaged about 87.5 mph and produced silly whiff and zone whiff rates of 46% and 39%, respectively. Just think about that for just one more second: 39% of the time that KBO hitters swung at Ponce’s change-up in the strike zone, they missed it. Aside from the fastball/change-up combination, Ponce also throws a cutter and a bigger, slower curveball, as well as flashing a sinker. The ridiculous whiff rates are obviously not going to translate directly against MLB hitters, but they don’t have to be quite that big for Ponce to remain effective, especially if he can keep the contact that he does give up on the softer side. It’s still too early to say how the Jays plan to utilize Ponce. He’s been a starter his whole career, and I’d expect that’s what the Jays have in mind for him, but the starting rotation is starting to look pretty full. As it lined up before the Ponce addition, the Jays could have run out a rotation of Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, and José Berríos, with Eric Lauer in a swing-man role. Throwing Ponce into the mix certainly looks like it causes a logjam in that fifth spot in the rotation. Just for fun, here are FanGraphs's 2026 Steamer projections for Ponce, Berríos, and Lauer, the three guys in the mix for that fifth rotation spot: Pitcher 2026 Projected Starts/IP 2026 Projected ERA 2026 Projected WAR Cody Ponce 26/148 4.08 2.2 José Berríos 28/159 4.52 1.5 Eric Lauer 5/65 (38 relief appearances) 4.27 0.3 Interestingly enough, Ponce outperforms Berríos, if only marginally. These things tend to work themselves out, and there’s never been a team that has had too much starting pitching. Even still, it looks like another move may be on the horizon. Could the Jays try to eat some of the approximately $67 million left on the three years of Berríos’s contract, trade him away, and slide Ponce right into that fifth spot? Or do the Jays foresee Ponce playing a similar role to that which Lauer played in 2025? They could use him as a bullpen piece until they inevitably need an extended stretch of starts due to an injury to one of their other starters. Regardless of the role the Jays end up carving out for Ponce in 2026, this move also shores up the team's rotation depth for 2027 and '28. Gausman and Bieber are both free agents after this season, and Berríos has an opt-out – although he’d need to drastically outperform those projections to even consider taking it. Regardless, it’s so much fun to see the Jays moving so quickly and aggressively early in the offseason, addressing what was clearly their number one priority. View the full article

There are two ways MLB players can be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The first is the annual election conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (“BBWAA”). The second is selection by the Era Committee, formerly the Veterans Committee. Of the 278 former major league players who are members of the Hall of Fame, 117 were elected by the Era/Veterans Committee. The Era Committee will officially announce the election results on December 7, 2025. Concerning the BBWAA’s election, an eligible player’s name must appear on at least 75% of the BBWAA ballots cast each year to become a Hall of Fame member. The BBWAA removes a candidate from future ballots if either the candidate’s name appeared on fewer than five percent of the ballots or the player was on the ballot for 10 years but did not meet the 75% condition. Don Mattingly was first on the BBWAA’s ballot in 2001 and appeared on 28.2% of the ballots. Under the then-rules, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, did not meet the 75% threshold, and was removed from future ballots. In 2015, Mattingly’s last year of eligibility, his name appeared on 9.1% of the ballots. In 2018 and 2020, Mattingly was eligible for Hall of Fame consideration by the Veterans Committee but did not receive a vote in either year. In 2022, the Hall of Fame renamed the Veterans Committee the Era Committee and split the ballots into two time periods: the Contemporary Baseball Era (post-1979) and the Classic Baseball Era (pre-1980). Mattingly received 50% of the 16 votes in the 2023 Contemporary Era ballot. He is on the 2026 ballot. Mattingly played 14 seasons for the New York Yankees (1982 to 1995) and posted a 42.4 bWAR and a 124 wRC+. He was considered by many to be one of the best defensive first basemen of his generation. His notable achievements include the following: The 1985 AL MVP. Also, he finished fifth, second, and seventh in the 1984, 1986, and 1987 AL MVP voting. Nine American League Gold Glove Awards (1985-1989 and 1991-1994). Three Silver Sluggers (1985-1987). During his MLB career, the Yankees failed to qualify for the postseason from 1982 to 1993; MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs due to the players’ strike. However, in his one postseason (1995), Mattingly posted a 200 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances. Starting in the late 1980s, back issues plagued Mattingly, and his power declined significantly. From 1982 to 1987, Mattingly generated a 0.212 ISO, much higher than MLB’s non-pitcher 0.137 average. However, for the 1988-1995 period, Mattingly’s 0.164 ISO was just 27 points higher than the MLB non-pitcher 0.137 average. Between 1982 and 1987, Mattingly’s wRC+ was 146, and it was 109 for the balance of his career. A valuable tool to evaluate whether a player has earned a Hall of Fame membership is three bWAR-based metrics: bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS. bWAR does not require explanation, but WAR7 and JAWS do. One of the limitations of career bWAR is that a Hall of Fame candidate may have generated a high bWAR because they played many seasons. Since a Hall of Famer should be one of the best at their position over multiple seasons, WAR7, a player’s seven-highest bWAR seasons, is informative because it measures dominance across many seasons. JAWS, developed by Jay Jaffe, is the average of bWAR and WAR7, and it is instructive because it balances these two metrics (bWAR and WAR7). Jaffe, now of FanGraphs, wrote an excellent article about Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy. It is the bWAR-related metrics that hurt Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy. In addition to Mattingly, Table 1 shows the top 15 career bWAR marks of first basemen whose MLB career began after 1979. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR 7, and JAWS numbers are noticeably below the average of the Hall of Famers on the list (Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Fred McGriff, and David Ortiz). Of these Hall of Fame members, McGriff is the only player voted in by the Era Committee. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS stats are 42.4, 35.7, and 39.1, which rank 21st, 17th, and 20th, respectively. Concerning the all-time Hall of Fame list, there are 25 first basemen. Their average bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS are 65.0, 42.0, and 53.5, respectively. Furthermore, among all first basemen, Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS ranks 45th, 34th, and 40th, respectively. There is an argument that, because an injury curtailed Mattingly’s performance significantly and shortened his career, one should judge his career in that light. Accordingly, I present Hall of Fame pitcher, Sandy Koufax. From a performance perspective, Koufax’s career is nearly the mirror image of Mattingly’s. Whereas Mattingly’s first half of his 14-year career accounts for 69% of his career bWAR, Koufax generated 87% of his career pitching bWAR over the last six seasons of his 12-year career. Despite an arthritic elbow, which he linked to jamming his throwing arm on the basepaths in a 1964 game against the Braves, Koufax was dominant in 1965 and 1966 (18.4 bWAR). However, arthritic pain and concerns about the health effects of painkillers led Koufax to retire at 30 after the 1966 season. At the conclusion of the 1971 season, Koufax’s 48.9 bWAR and 46.0 WAR7 were below the then-average Hall of Fame pitcher’s 66.4 bWAR and 48.3 WAR7. Koufax was on the BBWAA ballot for the first time for the 1972 Hall of Fame Class; his name appeared on 86.9% of the ballots cast, and he was elected to the Hall of Fame. When Koufax was elected to the Hall of Fame, the Wins Above Replacement model did not exist, at least publicly. For many writers, one metric they consider is pitcher wins. At the conclusion of the 1971 campaign, the average win total of the Hall of Fame pitchers was 246, which Koufax fell short of (165). However, during the last six years of his career, Koufax recorded 129 wins, or 21.5 wins per season. I guess that BBWAA writers used the 21.5 wins per season as evidence of Koufax’s dominance in the last six years of his career. The Koufax historical review is a long-winded journey back to Mattingly. Was Mattingly Hall-of-Fame-worthy dominant before injuries either curtailed performance or shortened his career? The answer is no. As Table 2 shows, Koufax was dominant at his peak. In his four and five-best bWAR campaigns, he posted 9.1 and 8.4 per-season marks. That is dominant. However, if one looks at Mattingly’s comparable periods, his per-season bWAR figures are 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. Mattingly’s best years were impressive but not elite enough to overcome his 21st career bWAR mark among post-1979 era first basemen. Koufax’s four, five, and six-year peaks were more than enough to justify his induction into the Hall of Fame, despite lower career, wins, bWAR, and JAWS numbers. Circling back to Table 1, Mattingly’s WAR7 is like those of Ortiz and McGriff. So, should he not be in the Hall of Fame? For two reasons, the answer is no. First, the career bWAR marks of Ortiz and McGriff are at least 10 units higher than Mattingly’s. Accordingly, Mattingly’s peak years were not dominant enough to overcome his career bWAR shortfall. Second, Hall of Fame membership should be exclusive and reserved for those who were clearly the best of their era at their position. In other words, the entrance bar should be set high. The Hall of Fame candidacies of Ortiz and McGriff were marginal. The bar should not be lowered further to grant Hall of Fame access to Mattingly. The Last Word Early in his career, Mattingly was among the best at his position. No doubt injuries limited his performance and shortened his career. However, his best seven seasons rank 17th among first basemen in the post-1979 era. Compared to a player like Koufax, whose career was also shortened partially due to injury, Mattingly’s best seasons were not as dominant. The threshold to be a Hall of Famer should be set high. Accordingly, like many players, Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame. View the full article

On The Offishial Show, Ely Sussman provides context behind the amusing idea that the Marlins could use outfielder Griffin Conine at first base in the future. View the full article

As sample sizes go, 7 2/3 innings for a pitcher is nothing. We know that no useful projections can be made from that. But sometimes, a team can still see the future during those limited moments -- if it swaps out the data microscope for the long-lamented eye test. Take the Padres and Bradgley Rodriguez, for example. Based on what the team saw from the rookie right-hander last September, it ought to feel confident that he can contribute to the big-league bullpen full time as soon as next March. In turn, it can avoid spending big on a middle reliever this winter and focus on the club's biggest needs: rotation, catcher, and the right side of the infield. Bradgley Rodriguez's career history It doesn't take a spreadsheet to determine that Rodriguez has potential. His triple-digit fastball is all anyone needs to see. But if they need more proof, they can also gaze at his power changeup. Those two pitches earned him an early-season promotion from Double-A to the Show as a 21-year-old. The Venezuela native made his MLB debut on May 31 against the Pirates and pitched well (1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, stranded both of his inherited runners). Three days later, the Padres optioned him to Triple-A El Paso to make room for right-hander Ryan Bergert. Prior to his call-up, Rodriguez was No. 9 in Padres Mission's ranking of the team's top prospects. The final sentence of the scouting report read: "His control is still a work in progress, but his high strikeout rate indicates significant upside as a power pitcher." When Rodriguez returned to San Diego in September, that upside shot way up. True, there were bumps, like the one he put on Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez's elbow with a 100 mph heater in New York. Rodriguez hit three batters total last season, with each pitch coming from his arm side, That's a sure sign of command issues. But there also was that wild game against the Brewers at Petco Park on the night of Sept. 22. Rodriguez entered in the 11th inning after the teams had traded runs in the 10th. He got three ground balls and, thanks to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, three outs in a scoreless frame. Minutes later, the Padres were walking off the Crew to clinch a playoff berth. Rodriguez was credited with his first MLB win. The outing was a showcase of the youngster's grit—he did not have an easy road to the majors. He had to fight to save his career as he missed the 2022 and 2023 seasons with elbow problems. Less than two years after returning to action, he was succeeding in a high-leverage role in a playoff race. Days later, Rodriguez was auditioning for the Padres' Wild Card Series roster. On the final weekend of the regular season, he made two relief appearances against the Diamondbacks. Each time, he was the first man out of the 'pen in the middle innings. He responded with five strikeouts and one walk over 2 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres, of course, put him on the WCS roster, but he didn't appear in the three games against the Cubs. Despite that, Rodriguez carries all of that momentum into 2026. He's not your typical 22-year-old pitcher, at least in terms of résumé. Bradgley Rodriguez's statistics, outlook Rodriguez's final 2025 numbers for the Padres, small though they are, should leave everyone believing that he can be a difference-maker next year: Category Rodriguez Opponents' OPS .523 Strikeout percentage 29.0 Walk percentage 9.7* Average fastball velocity 98.3 Strike percentage 59.4 Ground ball rate 56.3 Inherited runners stranded 3 of 4 * Includes one intentional walk. Sources: MLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs The Padres' top four right-handed relievers heading into the Winter Meetings are Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Adam, though, may begin next season on the injured list as he continues to rehab the quad tear he suffered Sept. 1. MLB.com reported last month that he is expected to resume throwing "in the coming weeks." After Rodriguez, the other righty options on the 40-man roster are: Jhony Brito: Missed all of last season recovering from an elbow brace procedure. Garrett Hawkins: Added to the 40-man last month to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Bryan Hoeing: Optioned to Triple-A last July after making seven appearances for San Diego. Is more of a swingman/bulk reliever. Alex Jacob: Posted a 5.13 ERA in 33 1/3 innings but finished the season strong. Ron Marinaccio: Finished last season in the minors. Miguel Mendez: See Hawkins. The left side features Adrian Morejon (assuming he's not converted back into a starter), Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart (our Randy Holt recently did a deep dive into Hart's potential as a reliever). Figure three of those pitchers make the Opening Day bullpen—that would leave one open spot in an eight-man unit, although it's more likely to be two spots with Adam questionable. Rodriguez has a clear path to securing one of them. The Padres will add depth arms in the offseason, but with Rodriguez around, they shouldn't feel obligated to spend a few million or trade a prospect for a middle reliever. After all, they've already seen that he has the tools to do the job. View the full article

As sample sizes go, 7 2/3 innings for a pitcher is nothing. We know that no useful projections can be made from that. But sometimes, a team can still see the future during those limited moments -- if it swaps out the data microscope for the long-lamented eye test. Take the Padres and Bradgley Rodriguez, for example. Based on what the team saw from the rookie right-hander last September, it ought to feel confident that he can contribute to the big-league bullpen full time as soon as next March. In turn, it can avoid spending big on a middle reliever this winter and focus on the club's biggest needs: rotation, catcher, and the right side of the infield. Bradgley Rodriguez's career history It doesn't take a spreadsheet to determine that Rodriguez has potential. His triple-digit fastball is all anyone needs to see. But if they need more proof, they can also gaze at his power changeup. Those two pitches earned him an early-season promotion from Double-A to the Show as a 21-year-old. The Venezuela native made his MLB debut on May 31 against the Pirates and pitched well (1 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 SO, stranded both of his inherited runners). Three days later, the Padres optioned him to Triple-A El Paso to make room for right-hander Ryan Bergert. Prior to his call-up, Rodriguez was No. 9 in Padres Mission's ranking of the team's top prospects. The final sentence of the scouting report read: "His control is still a work in progress, but his high strikeout rate indicates significant upside as a power pitcher." When Rodriguez returned to San Diego in September, that upside shot way up. True, there were bumps, like the one he put on Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez's elbow with a 100 mph heater in New York. Rodriguez hit three batters total last season, with each pitch coming from his arm side, That's a sure sign of command issues. But there also was that wild game against the Brewers at Petco Park on the night of Sept. 22. Rodriguez entered in the 11th inning after the teams had traded runs in the 10th. He got three ground balls and, thanks to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, three outs in a scoreless frame. Minutes later, the Padres were walking off the Crew to clinch a playoff berth. Rodriguez was credited with his first MLB win. The outing was a showcase of the youngster's grit—he did not have an easy road to the majors. He had to fight to save his career as he missed the 2022 and 2023 seasons with elbow problems. Less than two years after returning to action, he was succeeding in a high-leverage role in a playoff race. Days later, Rodriguez was auditioning for the Padres' Wild Card Series roster. On the final weekend of the regular season, he made two relief appearances against the Diamondbacks. Each time, he was the first man out of the 'pen in the middle innings. He responded with five strikeouts and one walk over 2 1/3 scoreless frames. The Padres, of course, put him on the WCS roster, but he didn't appear in the three games against the Cubs. Despite that, Rodriguez carries all of that momentum into 2026. He's not your typical 22-year-old pitcher, at least in terms of résumé. Bradgley Rodriguez's statistics, outlook Rodriguez's final 2025 numbers for the Padres, small though they are, should leave everyone believing that he can be a difference-maker next year: Category Rodriguez Opponents' OPS .523 Strikeout percentage 29.0 Walk percentage 9.7* Average fastball velocity 98.3 Strike percentage 59.4 Ground ball rate 56.3 Inherited runners stranded 3 of 4 * Includes one intentional walk. Sources: MLB.com, Baseball Reference, Fangraphs The Padres' top four right-handed relievers heading into the Winter Meetings are Mason Miller, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada and David Morgan. Adam, though, may begin next season on the injured list as he continues to rehab the quad tear he suffered Sept. 1. MLB.com reported last month that he is expected to resume throwing "in the coming weeks." After Rodriguez, the other righty options on the 40-man roster are: Jhony Brito: Missed all of last season recovering from an elbow brace procedure. Garrett Hawkins: Added to the 40-man last month to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Bryan Hoeing: Optioned to Triple-A last July after making seven appearances for San Diego. Is more of a swingman/bulk reliever. Alex Jacob: Posted a 5.13 ERA in 33 1/3 innings but finished the season strong. Ron Marinaccio: Finished last season in the minors. Miguel Mendez: See Hawkins. The left side features Adrian Morejon (assuming he's not converted back into a starter), Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Kyle Hart (our Randy Holt recently did a deep dive into Hart's potential as a reliever). Figure three of those pitchers make the Opening Day bullpen—that would leave one open spot in an eight-man unit, although it's more likely to be two spots with Adam questionable. Rodriguez has a clear path to securing one of them. The Padres will add depth arms in the offseason, but with Rodriguez around, they shouldn't feel obligated to spend a few million or trade a prospect for a middle reliever. After all, they've already seen that he has the tools to do the job. View the full article

One of the expected names added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5, Hendry Mendez is someone the Twins are banking on for the long term. But given his poor outfield defense, will he be expected to remain at a corner position, or do the Twins seem willing to try him out at first base for the long term? View the full article

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday that Byron Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. He and Kiley McDaniel rank Buxton as being the fifth-best player likely to be moved, and figure he’s got about a one-in-three chance of heading to camp wearing a new uniform. This is, naturally, not great news for Twins fans despite the bread crumbs leading us here over the past couple of months. Obviously, the Twins trading their best hitter (by a wide margin) would send very clear signals about their intention to contend in the near future. However, such a move would be a way to further stock an already strong farm system and fully commit to a youth movement. Now, this list I’m about to reveal is not comprehensive. A player of Buxton’s caliber would make every team better. However, five teams seem like natural fits in terms of need and tradeable commodities. I’ll rank them in order of who I see as the best matches. Of course, none of this means a Buxton trade will happen. He can say no at any time, and if he does desire a trade, his landing spot might be his own choice, as much as the Twins'. Without further ado, let’s get into it. Los Angeles Dodgers Look, the Dodgers are seemingly always the odds-on favorites for any prestige free agent, so why not for a star slugger coming off a career year and down-ballot MVP votes? For a team as stacked as the two-time defending champions, the outfield is a rare opportunity to improve. World Series hero Andy Pages is legit at the plate and in center field, but corner outfielder Teoscar Hernández is coming off a down year, as is Tommy Edman. Both are on the wrong side of 30, so it’s entirely possible both are experiencing age-related decline. Edman is also better (defensively) on the dirt, but played about a quarter of his games in the grass out of necessity. Edman is also a question mark for 2026, as he’s coming off ankle surgery. Buxton would be an upgrade in the corners, and would make their lineup that much deadlier. He probably isn't ready to move out of center field yet, but he has the cachet to prompt them to move Pages to a corner instead, at least temporarily. Beyond that, let’s be honest with ourselves: is there a great player the Dodgers don’t swing hard for? Further, they also have a strong farm. MLB Pipeline has them ranked first overall, with no fewer than seven top-100 guys and good depth beyond that. Assuming Buxton would net two top-100 prospects in any deal, it would be easy to construct a package that could make sense. Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies need right-handed power badly, and the Phillies beat writer for The Athletic identified Buxton as a target. The fit is clear, and a lot of boxes are checked. The Twins have recent history with the Phillies as trade partners, and are certainly familiar with their farm system after dealing both Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader to Philadelphia in July. Bader and old friend Max Kepler are both free agents, and the Phils could lose Kyle Schwarber, as well. Nick Castellanos, the Phillies’ everyday right fielder in 2025, was a brutal defender at the position. As it stands currently, top prospect Justin Crawford is set to crack the Opening Day lineup in the grass. Adding Buxton would allow the Phillies to give Crawford a ramp, rather than hoping he immediately hits. Buxton would fill key gaps for them, and would immediately improve their roster both offensively and defensively. Working against them: their prospect pool got shallower at the deadline, as the Twins took two of their best prospects. They still have three prospects in the top 100, and all are high-end, but the Phillies' front office may be loath to deal more from that pool. Cincinnati Reds In 2025, the Reds ranked 19th in baseball in OPS. Additionally, they don’t have a single outfielder who's much more than an average hitter, and all of their outfielders cost the Reds runs compared to average defenders. Noelvi Marte, while still young, has been replacement-level for his career. Austin Hays is a free agent, and TJ Friedl can hit a bit but isn’t special. Buxton would be a clear upgrade in center and would improve their offense by leaps and bounds. The Reds have the prospect capital to have build a trade package, with six players on Pipeline's Top-100 list—including a couple of strong shortstop prospects who are a few years out, likely aligning with the Twins' next true contention window. There is some fairly recent trade history between the two teams, as the Twins traded for both Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle in 2022. Atlanta This could be Buxton’s preference, as he is from Baxley, Georgia, a small town three and a half hours away from Truist Park. His parents and extended family still live there, and he spends his offseason months there, as well. I would assume that this would be Buxton’s preferred digs, if he does decide he wants to go. From a baseball standpoint, Atlanta’s hitting was average-ish in 2025, ranking 13th by OPS. Michael Harris II is a good defender in center, but his bat hasn’t played in a couple of years. Jurickson Profar and Ronald Acuña Jr. man the corners right now, but both are subpar defenders in the grass. However, both hit well enough to spend a lot of time at DH on days when Drake Baldwin is catching, which could be most of the time with Sean Murphy recovering from hip surgery. Trading for Buxton would allow Atlanta to dramatically upgrade their outfield defense and their offense at the same time. Really, the biggest obstacle for Atlanta is the relative weakness of their farm system, ranked 28th in MLB.com's midseason ranking due to their lack of future impact at the top. With just two top-100 players (both pitchers), it could be tough to find a package that would fit, unless the Twins were able to find a match on a challenge trade. However, that doesn’t seem like it would fit their intentions, if they are trying to move Buxton at all. Maybe the Twins would take a couple of pre-arbitration guys and some lower-ranked prospects, but I don’t see the perfect fit. Atlanta does have good young pitchers, too, but many of them have run into injury problems. New York Mets The Mets traded their everyday left fielder, Brandon Nimmo, for Marcus Semien last week. They don’t have a clear internal option to replace him. Tyrone Taylor, their incumbent primary center fielder, has been a below-average hitter since 2022. He’s a fine defender, but you know who isn’t? Juan Soto, who logged 157 games in the grass in 2025. He should be a DH. Trading for Buxton could make that a reality for them, probably singlehandedly earning them an extra win or two on defense alone. Further, the Mets are unlikely to be big spenders in free agency, so a trade for a great player at an affordable price could be especially attractive to them. They have four top-50 prospects, a mix of pitchers, outfielders, and infielders, creating another scenario where the Twins would likely have options to choose from. Hopefully, a Buxton trade does not come to pass, for a host of reasons, including a lot of stuff like this. However, knowing that 2026 is seemingly not a competitive season and 2027 could be tough, too, if the Twins are able to at least gain significant value for their homegrown star, the next window could arrive sooner and be likelier to be successful. View the full article

Alex and Maddie celebrate the one-year anniversary of the Talk Sox Podcast by analyzing why Cole Ragans makes a lot of sense for the Red Sox. They then talk through whether the team is overvaluing Jarren Duran and discuss whether he should be traded over Wilyer Abreu. Finally, they talk through the latest news, connecting the team to Ketel Marte. Thanks to everyone who has made this last year a success here on the Talk Sox Podcast! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-talk-sox-podcast/id1783204104 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3qPrPXEngu0CxgTmlf0ynm Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-talk-sox-podcast-244591331/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/4tmd121v Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@talksox View the full article

Brewer Fanatic recently examined Milwaukee's positional depth at third base and shortstop. Readers can safely conclude that the current infield reserves are insufficient for a playoff-caliber roster in 2026. One more capable veteran could help prevent the offense from fading in October. One strong candidate to be that veteran addition is Zach McKinstry, Detroit's super utilityman. McKinstry's career was unremarkable until last season. He had his best year ever in 2025, though, producing a .771 OPS while playing competent defense at every infield and corner outfield position. This performance earned him his first All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger award. Zach McKinstry, Performance Percentiles, 2023-25 Season Batting Runs Fielding Runs Baserunning Runs Bat Speed Arm Strength Sprint Speed LA Sweet Spot % 2023 4 74 82 7 96 80 80 2024 20 70 92 7 58 79 87 2025 44 46 91 4 90 75 96 McKinstry runs the bases well, has excellent arm strength and frequently hits line drives and flyballs with launch angles that are favorable for hits and home runs. At the same time, he doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard in terms of exit velocity and bat speed. Furthermore, it is worth noting McKinstry's extreme home/road splits in 2025. He had a .991 OPS at Comerica Park and .544 OPS everywhere else. McKinstry, a left-handed batter, turns 31 years old in April. He has two years of team control and is projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration this offseason. This could be a terrific fit for Milwaukee. Their top position-player prospects are unlikely to contribute in 2026, and McKinstry can provide needed depth through 2027. Give Infielders a Break Pat Murphy rarely rested his primary infielders in 2025. It was not until later in the year that Anthony Seigler would earn an occasional start in place of Caleb Durbin. The Brewers' offense ran out of gas in the postseason. An extra day of rest for infielders a couple of times per month could help avert a late-season collapse or a postseason fade. It was clear that Milwaukee did not believe it had a viable alternative to starting Joey Ortiz at shortstop in 2025. Players like Vinny Capra, Oliver Dunn, Owen Miller and Andruw Monasterio have not been legitimate threats to become everyday players anywhere on the infield. McKinstry is good enough to compete for at-bats with nearly anyone in the lineup. Insurance Policy for Outfielders The last thing Milwaukee needs is another left-handed-hitting outfielder. However, McKinstry has reverse splits: he’s hit better against left-handed pitching throughout his career, in limited appearances. He managed an .854 OPS against left-handed pitching (119 plate appearances) and a .746 OPS against right-handed pitching (392 PA) in 2025. Murphy doesn’t seem to mind keeping a few left-handed bats in the lineup, even against difficult left-handed pitching. McKinstry Isaac Collins was terrific through August, but he fell out of favor after slumping to a .664 OPS in September and October. Collins also went hitless in nine postseason at-bats. It is unclear which version of Collins the Brewers can expect in 2026. Garrett Mitchell should be healthy in time for spring training. If Mitchell becomes injured again, McKinstry would fill in nicely in left field with Jackson Chourio heading back to center field. Blake Perkins consistently provides Gold Glove-caliber defense and a .647 OPS, doing exactly that over the past two seasons. Brandon Lockridge figures to be a useful fifth outfielder, if that is more than faint praise. McKinstry doesn’t profile well in center field, but with Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick each able to play there and Perkins as the defensive ace for the spot, he doesn’t need to. He can shield the team against another injury to Mitchell, and filter into the lineup against both lefties and righties to spell each of the regulars across the grass. Christian Yelich played in only 19 games as a left fielder in 2025. At this point, it seems unlikely that Yelich will spend meaningful time in the outfield. What Would it Take to Acquire McKinstry? The underlying point of this article is that Milwaukee should consider trading from its pitching depth to provide affordable reinforcement for its position players. McKinstry could be an intriguing target. McKinstry doesn’t immediately strike one as being worth a high-leverage reliever in trade. If the Brewers could receive 500 plate appearances from a .750 OPS utility player who plays five positions, though, that might be more valuable than another 47 innings of relief from Trevor Megill. Megill will play his age-32 season in 2026. Like McKinstry, he has two years of team control remaining. His performance could reasonably be expected to regress in 2026, and he dealt with arm trouble at the end of 2025. It is equally possible for McKinstry to revert back to a 1-WAR player. Even in his breakout campaign, he only had an 87 DRC+ (where 100 is average, and higher is better), according to Baseball Prospectus. His track record of success in the majors is short, and some of it might be illusory. Even so, McKinstry has the potential to make the 2026 Brewers a more competitive team by being a credible short-term replacement for anyone on the field. He might cost them a strong prospect or an important relief arm, but he’s a tremendous baserunner; he might have power upside that has been hidden by the spacious Comerica Park; and the Brewers like patient hitters whom they can optimize with even better swing-decision training. The fit could be too good to pass up. View the full article

While there was room for discussion around the extent of it, we know that the Chicago Cubs attempted to sign third baseman Alex Bregman last winter. He eventually landed in Boston, though an opt-out in his contract has him back on the free agent market. The Cubs have already been connected, and such a signing could have a bearing on what shape their infield takes for the remainder of this offseason. That's in an entirely hypothetical world, however, and we have little reason to think the chances of a Bregman signing are good at this point. As such, we continue to operate under the assumption that the team's infield will look much the same as it did for most of 2025: Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya behind the plate, and Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Matt Shaw occupying their spots around the remainder of the dirt. At the same time, third base does offer a position of intrigue. Shaw demonstrated improvement as the season wore on, but stretches throughout the regular season and into October showed us that as good as he can be on the defensive side, his offense remains a work in progress. Given that, it might behoove the Cubs to explore more of a safety net than they had at any point in 2025. The team's failed pursuit of Bregman left them without a true alternative to Shaw. When he struggled out of the gate (61 wRC+ in April), Craig Counsell was forced to reckon with the absence of a suitable supplement. A collection of Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez, Justin Turner, and Gage Workman filled space both during Shaw's time back in Iowa and other parts of the year. Only Turner finished the year still in the organization, with trade deadline acquisition Willi Castro offering more depth at the position in the season's final two months. Turner and Castro hit free agency this winter, with no clear indicator that either would (or should) be back. That means that the Cubs—who finished with exactly 0.0 fWAR from third base in 2025—are going to once again rely on Shaw realizing his next stages of development. That's easier said than done, considering some of the areas of concern around him. Shaw was far better in the second half of 2025 than in the first. His line after the All-Star break read .258/.317/.522 with a 130 wRC+, versus a .198/.276/.280 (60 wRC+) slash from the first half. The increase in power output is notable, as Shaw was able to elevate at a rate 11 percentage points above his flyball rate from the first half (46.0 percent). The way he closed the year, however, leaves a much more muddled picture than the splits imply. For one, Shaw's strikeout rate was up about 4.5 percentage points in the second half (23.9% overall), while his walk rate was down (8.3%). His swing-and-miss rate in September was his second-highest in an individual month, with the 25.5% whiff rate trailing only April (30.8%). His hard-hit rate, which rose steadily as the months wore on, cratered in September, with a 22.0% rate checking in 15 percentage points below his August peak. It all carried into October, where he notched only a pair of hits in 15 plate appearances and provided his only value via the walk (of which he had five). That's not to say that Shaw is destined to have another volatile season in 2026. We'll likely continue to see the ups and downs associated with natural development. We just don't know what the peaks and valleys could look like at this point. That's all the more reason for the Cubs to pursue a legitimate safety net for Shaw this time around. The goal with such an addition isn't necessarily to prepare for a worst-case scenario. Instead, it's to supplement Shaw in those moments where you don't love a matchup or he needs an opportunity to reset for a day or two. As such, it's not about signing or acquiring a pure third baseman as said safety net. You're looking for a versatile player who can bring at least one particular skill, while not being a total loss filling in at third base defensively—especially given what you lose with Shaw's glove when he's on the bench. Consider someone like Luis Urías, who has a career walk rate around 10% and is coming off a year in which he struck out a career-low 13.6 percent of the time. Former Cub Ildemaro Vargas doesn't offer the same level of contact ability, but he hit well enough last year (85 wRC+) and was perfectly average in a small sample at third to offer at least an upgrade over how the team supplemented third base last season. Miguel Andujar could provide a little bit more in the way of power and contact ability, even if his ability to draw walks and his defensive shortcomings don't entirely fit the bill. None are exciting options in a thin free-agent class this side of Bregman, but they could at least provide the type of supplementation that's needed as Shaw continues his development. That's something that the Cubs need to prioritize when they build the bench. Swanson and Hoerner are going to provide you with playing time volume and established skill sets. The same largely goes for Busch, even if the team maintains a desire to protect him against certain left-handed arms. It's not just about acquiring a player who can fill in as a body at third base, either. It's about a clear offensive skill set, so that the lineup can hold together when Shaw's development is at the wrong end of its volatility. View the full article

The Twins have spent the last few seasons trying to convince the baseball world that their competitive window is still open. Their message has always depended on having their two cornerstone stars in the middle of everything. That plan took its first major hit when Carlos Correa agreed to waive his no-trade clause and return to Houston at this summer’s trade deadline. The ripple effects from that decision may now be touching Byron Buxton in ways the Twins hoped they would never face. Correa’s exit made all the sense in the world. Once the idea of Houston crept back into his head, it was almost impossible to uproot. His family is in the area. The Astros offer a more straightforward path to October, even if they fell short in 2025. The move to third base was expected to lessen the wear and tear on his body, after years of problems with his lower back and plantar fasciitis. It made too much sense, and when a player of Correa’s stature sees a version of his future that looks brighter elsewhere, it is only natural to follow it. The seed was planted, and it grew until there was no stopping it. Minnesota told itself that this was a singular situation. Correa was unique. This was not a sign of something bigger. Now, cracks in that belief have started to show. Earlier this week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Buxton has emerged as one of the biggest trade candidates of the winter. That alone is jarring, but the real noise came from Passan’s line that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause, and not just for Atlanta, the team he watched growing up in Georgia. Buxton has not confirmed this publicly, and until he speaks, there will be speculation on how genuine that willingness truly is. Still, even the possibility marks a notable shift. This is a player who has repeatedly said he wants to be in Minnesota for the long haul and has long been viewed as fiercely loyal to the only big-league organization he has ever known. Last month, I wrote about how the Pohlads may have pushed Buxton to break his moral code, and perhaps that is still true, but Correa’s exit may also have pointed him to greener pastures. It's not hard to understand why that loyalty may be softening. Buxton is coming off arguably the best season of his career, and he looks and feels healthy heading into the offseason for a second consecutive year. He knows exactly how short an athlete’s window can be, and he is undoubtedly aware of the current state of the Twins. Their payroll is dropping. Their roster faces more questions than answers. Their long-term outlook is cloudy, at best. Then, he looks at Correa. He sees a close friend and former teammate, thriving in a competitive environment with real October expectations. He sees a player who freed himself to chase wins, stability, and long-term relevance. That image can be powerful. It can plant the same idea that once took hold of Correa. And if the idea is truly in Buxton’s mind, the Twins may not be able to root it out. That is the uncomfortable reality for Minnesota. Correa’s departure was not simply one star leaving. It may have opened the door to another star reconsidering his loyalty. If the Twins can't show Buxton a future where contention is more than a hopeful projection, they risk watching their franchise centerpiece walk the same path Correa did. The Twins believed Correa’s exit was an isolated storm, but it may have been the first breeze carrying seeds of doubt into their clubhouse. Buxton has always been the player they trusted to anchor their future, yet even the most loyal stars can start to question where their path leads. If Minnesota cannot show him a future that blooms into real contention (rather than more uncertainty), those seeds may grow into a weed that will spread throughout the organization. Did Correa’s exit push Buxton toward the door? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

This time last year, the Toronto Blue Jays were in the midst of determining what 2025 would look like. Was it time to go all in? Or start rebuilding? Negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were stalling, and the front office was trying to put forward a brave face. They were adamant that the 74-win 2024 season was an anomaly. Fast-forward 365 days, and Jays are talking like a team that understands that the future is now. The team heads into the 2026 season with a singular mission: to finish what they started in 2025. After a 94-win campaign that culminated in a heartbreaking loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the seventh game of the World Series, the Jays have doubled down on their commitment to winning now. This is not a rebuilding year, nor a transitional phase; it’s an all-in push for a championship. The front office is showing a willingness to spend aggressively, even at the cost of crossing the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold. With a payroll projected north of $264 million, the Blue Jays are firmly entrenched in the second tier of CBT penalties. For a franchise that was literally inches from winning the World Series (for the first time since 1993), the road to a championship is similar to that of the last 30 years. Pay now, win now. The big question mark this offseason is Bo Bichette. His 2025 season demonstrated that he was back to form as a hard-hitting middle-of-the-lineup hitter. Even on one leg in the World Series, he nearly helped the team win the series. While the Jays remain in the mix to re-sign him, rumors have swirled about potential pivots to Kyle Tucker or Japanese free agent Munetaka Murakami if Bichette departs. Either move would reshape the lineup and signal Toronto’s willingness to think outside the box. It is unlikely that any or all of the following will return in 2026: Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Ty France, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. However, the Jays have internal depth and financial flexibility to handle their departures. The 2026 40-man roster is building up to be an interesting blend of established players, high-priced free agents, and emerging prospects. It’s a team built for a division that continues to be tough. Here’s how the roster is coming together and what it means for 2026. Projected Lineup Assuming Bichette returns, the Jays’ 2026 starting lineup would look something like this: George Springer (DH) Bo Bichette (SS) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) Anthony Santander (LF) Alejandro Kirk (C) Ernie Clement (3B) Daulton Varsho (CF) Addison Barger (RF) Andrés Giménez (2B) Bench options include Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, and Nathan Lukes, offering flexibility and matchup advantages. Starting Rotation Toronto’s rotation will be one of the best in the AL East next season: Kevin Gausman Dylan Cease Shane Bieber Trey Yesavage José Berríos Depth options include Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, and minor leaguer Ricky Tiedemann, ensuring the Jays can weather injuries without a significant drop-off. By projected fWAR, Toronto’s rotation ranks second in the AL East (12.7), trailing only Boston (14.3). Bullpen Outlook The bullpen remains a work in progress. The Blue Jays agreed to terms with right-handed Cody Ponce on December 2, though it's unclear what his role will be. It is also unclear how he will fit into the 40-man roster as someone will need to be removed. Brandon Little, Justin Bruihl or Lázaro Estrada are most likely to be traded or designated for assignment to make room. Yimi García Louis Varland Braydon Fisher Yariel Rodríguez Jeff Hoffman Eric Lauer Mason Fluharty Brandon Little Tommy Nance Paxton Schultz Lázaro Estrada Justin Bruihl Angel Bastardo Cody Ponce The Jays have been rumoured to be exploring options, including free agents Edwin Díaz and Pete Fairbanks. Although the team doesn’t have a big repository of top prospects in the minors, there has been talk of potential trades. Many of the trade options hinge on whether the Jays can re-sign Bichette. If not, they’ll be seeking an infielder and perhaps more pitching depth. Catcher Alejandro Kirk Tyler Heineman Kirk and Heineman are slated to return behind the plate in 2026. The Jays tendered the switch-hitting Heineman a contract to prevent him from becoming a free agent. The third catcher on the Jays’ 40-man roster is Brandon Valenzuela, who was acquired last season in a trade with the San Diego Padres for Will Wagner. At the time, the 24-year-old switch-hitter was the 26th-ranked prospect in the San Diego system. Infield Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Andrés Giménez Ernie Clement Addison Barger Leo Jiménez Depending on Bichette, there won’t be a lot of changes here. The Jays may try to talk Bichette into transitioning to second, or not. Barger and Schneider will serve as backups in the infield and outfield to allow for rest days. If Bichette doesn’t re-sign, then the infield will most likely need to add a piece via trade or free agency. Technically, a healthy Santander would roam right field, enabling Barger to play the infield and shift Clement to second with Giménez at short. Light-hitting Leo Jiménez, who saw limited action last season, could be called up in case of injury. Outfield The Jays have a surplus of MLB-worthy outfielders. This could support trading one or more to address the team’s infield or relief pitching needs. Jonatan Clase Joey Loperfido Nathan Lukes Anthony Santander Davis Schneider George Springer Myles Straw Daulton Varsho Addison Barger (listed as an infielder on the roster) Prospects to Watch The Jays’ farm system ranks amongst the top half of all MLB systems. The meteoric rise of Trey Yasavage is not the norm, but the Jays do have several players to keep an eye on: Arjun Nimmala (SS) Infielder with plenty of tools, but early in development. Projected to get to the Majors by 2028. JoJo Parker (OF) Power-speed combo, could debut late in 2026, but more likely in 2029. Gage Stanifer (RHP) pitched in Double-A last season. Probably two years away from the Majors. Ricky Tiedemann (LHP) Faced numerous injuries over his brief career, but has top-level stuff. RJ Schreck (OF) Roamed the outfield last season in Triple-A. Bit of a logjam at the major league level, so might be traded, move up with Lukes, Straw, or Barger, or dealt. These prospects provide both insurance and trade capital for a team in win-now mode. The 2026 Toronto Blue Jays are being built to win. The big question mark is Bo Bichette. If he chooses to walk, the Jays can use those dollars to add pieces via free agency or trade. Baseball is unpredictable, and the margin for error in the AL East is razor-thin. Boston, New York, and Baltimore are all reloading for 2026. Even Tampa Bay is rumoured to be exploring a trade to re-acquire Zach Eflin. Either way, one thing is sure: the Blue Jays are all-in, and 2025 might just have been the start of something extra special. View the full article