DiamondCentric

The 2025 Royals struggled to stay above .500, finishing the season with an 82-80 record. While there was plenty of blame to go around for failing to reach October after their successful run in 2024, little of that blame can be squared at the starting rotation. The Royals' starting five pitched to a 4.00 FIP in 2025, good for tenth in all of baseball, all while Cole Ragans pitched 61 innings before losing most of the season to injury. The Starting Rotation 1. Cole Ragans Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Ragans had his breakout year in 2024, finishing 4th in the AL Cy Young voting. In 2025, he struggled to stay on the mound, missing roughly three months with a left rotator cuff strain. Once he returned to the rotation in September, he reminded Royals fans how valuable he is, pitching every fifth day. Ragans is definitely the ace of this rotation, and if he can remain healthy, he could once again find himself in the Cy Young conversation. 2. Seth Lugo Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 206.2 7.88 2.09 3.00 3.83 2025 145.1 7.74 3.41 4.15 4.53 Lugo took a step back following his excellent 2024 season, when he finished runner-up in Cy Young voting. After signing his two-year extension at the trade deadline, Lugo struggled and eventually landed on the injured list for a lower back issue. Entering his age-36 season, it would be naïve to expect his 2024 performance to return. If he can stay healthy and eat up innings, he will continue to be a valued asset to the Royals’ rotation. 3. Michael Wacha Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 166.2 7.83 2.43 3.35 3.65 2025 172.2 6.57 2.35 3.86 3.66 Wacha had another steady year pitching, having nearly an identical performance as the year prior. He was a steady presence in the rotation while other pitchers struggled with injuries. 4. Kris Bubic Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (bullpen) 30.1 11.57 1.48 2.67 1.95 2025 116.1 8.97 3.02 2.55 2.89 Bubic had a breakout first half of his 2025 season, earning him his first All-Star selection after Tommy John surgery caused him to miss most of the previous two seasons. After appearing out of the bullpen exclusively in 2024, he took advantage of his opportunity to return to the rotation in 2025. Unfortunately, a rotator cuff strain suffered in late July caused him to miss the rest of the 2025 season. He is expected to be ready for Opening Day, but enters his final year of arbitration and has been mentioned in trade rumors as the Royals explore adding an outfielder. Whether he's on the Royals or another team, hopefully, he can recreate his All-Star caliber performance post-recovery. 5. Noah Cameron Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 128.2 10.42 2.52 3.08 3.28 2025 138.1 7.42 2.80 2.99 4.18 Cameron was called up in late April when injuries started impacting the rotation, and he quickly proved he belonged. He finished the season leading the pitching staff in rWAR with 3.8 and finished fourth on the AL Rookie of the Year voting. If he can take the next step in his development and continue to limit base runners, he will be a strong asset to this rotation, especially for a fifth starter. Like Bubic, Cameron has also been mentioned in trade rumors. Major League Depth 1. Stephen Kolek Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (bullpen) 46.2 7.5 2.3 5.21 3.57 2025 112.2 6.2 2.5 3.51 3.82 Kolek was acquired by the Royals last year at the trade deadline. He was packaged with Ryan Bergert in exchange for Freddy Fermin. Kolek did a good job in stabilizing the rotation when other starters started heading to the injured list. In his five starts in Kansas City, he posted a 1.91 ERA in 33 innings. While his performance in Kansas City is likely to regress, Kolek showed what he can bring to this rotation once called upon. 2. Ryan Bergert Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Bergert was also acquired in the Fermin trade. Bergert had a decent first season in the major leagues, starting the season in the bullpen before earning a spot in the Padres’ rotation in June. Although Bergert struggled to go deep into games, only making it to six innings pitched once, after being dealt to the Royals, he got off to a good start, allowing two runs or fewer in his first six starts. He finished the year on the injured list with a right elbow strain. Barring a setback, he is set to enter spring training without limitations and challenge for a spot in the rotation. Prospects 1. Luinder Avila Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 87.0 8.8 4.9 4.14 - 2025 (bullpen) 14.0 10.3 3.9 1.29 2.14 Avila is the Royals’ #13 prospect. Read a detailed write-up of him in our breakdown of prospects ranked #11-15. 2. Ben Kudrna Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (minors) 115.1 9.3 4.1 4.68 - 2025 (minors) 105.1 9.1 4.3 5.81 - Ben Kudrna is the Royals' #5 prospect. Read a detailed write-up of him in our breakdown of prospects ranked #1-5. 3. Mason Black Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (SF) 186.1 10.77 3.24 3.14 2.99 2025 (SF) 61.2 14.30 2.92 4.67 2.50 Black was traded from the Giants on November 11 after being designated for assignment. Black has failed to impress at the major-league level with an ERA of 6.47 in 10 appearances across 2024 and 2025. His only win was, coincidentally, against the Royals in 2024. Black was once a top-10 prospect in the Giants' system, and is currently ranked 21 on MLB.com’s prospect rankings. Hopefully, a change of scenery will be good for Black. Probably In The Bullpen, But Could Start 1. Bailey Falter Season Innings K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP 2024 (PIT) 142.1 6.1 2.8 4.43 4.30 2025 125.1 5.8 3.3 4.45 4.94 Falter had little success after being acquired from Pittsburgh at last year’s trade deadline. In four appearances (two starts) with the Royals, he had an ERA of 11.25. He had much more success in his time with Pittsburgh with a 4.32 ERA in 60 appearances (57 starts). The Royals will hope that Falter’s end-of-the-season struggles were an outlier and that he will return to the standard he set in Pittsburgh. Falter does not have any minor league options remaining, so he will likely spend time in the bullpen as a long reliever option. View the full article

The 2026 American League Central is likely to be wide-open. The Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have each put together two straight winning seasons, but each time, they benefited from the extreme weakness of the Chicago White Sox. In 2025, none of them won more than 88 games. The Twins are stuck very much in the middle, but they do have some chance of putting together a good enough team to compete in the Central in 2026, even as they change direction and attempt to recover from two straight disappointing campaigns. Most fans expect little activity from the Twins this offseason, but then, most expect little activity from the other three pretenders to the crown, too. Detroit has already brought back (albeit in a passive way, by having each opt in at significant salaries) Jack Flaherty and Gleyber Torres, but they don't have the flexibility to make another big splash. Nor can Cleveland or Kansas City make major outlays to bolster the rosters they've constructed. Whatever the Twins do spend will go further than it might in other divisions. They're likely to sign a couple of free agents, even if it takes until the endgame of the offseason (as it has in each of the last two winters) and those players sign one-year deals for low salaries. Specifically, they can go shopping in the cheapest aisle of the hot stove marketplace, because it's also the place where the things they need most are stocked. Here are three relievers who could help the Twins make an unexpected playoff push in 2026; who would be lovely trade chips if the season breaks bad; and who fit the team's philosophy of pitching perfectly. The Twins love a good changeup, and all three of these guys have one. Tommy Kahnle No pitcher in baseball throws the changeup more than Kahnle. In fact, it's barely a changeup when he throws it, because it's the pitch batters have to be expecting each time he kicks and fires. Kahnle threw his change 85.6% of the time in 2025, with an extraordinary ability to kill spin. He doesn't use a split grip, but the way he sharply turns his hand outward as he delivers the change turns the pitch into something close to an old-fashioned forkball. OHl3eVhfVjBZQUhRPT1fQmdFRFhRVlZWUUFBRDFWV1VnQUhVMWRVQUZsWFUxSUFDMVZVQ1FKVVVBVmNBbE5S.mp4 The way that pitch tumbles allows Kahnle to succeed despite throwing it practically all the time. He induced whiffs on over 26% of opponents' swings on that offering in 2025, and has ridden the offering to a 3.61 career ERA. Next year will be his age-36 season, and he's coming off a down year in Detroit—one in which he had a 4.43 ERA. For the six years before that, though, he'd posted an aggregate 2.90 mark. Because he lost some velocity and saw his numbers slip this year, Kahnle will come very cheaply. He's probably not actually out of steam, though. There is that one other thing, though. New Twins bullpen coach LaTroy Hawkins famously called Kahnle "the worst teammate" he'd ever had during a broadcast in 2017. Kahnle himself shrugged that off even in the moment, and Hawkins said he'd put the divide between the two in the past, but presumably, there's still no relationship or positive feeling between them. It doesn't need to be disqualifying, because Kahnle and Hawkins butted heads in 2014. Each has lived a lot of years since, and Kahnle has been well-liked in several subsequent stops. It's possible he's evolved in ways that would impress and delight Hawkins. The two could well move beyond their past and form a productive partnership. Before signing Kahnle, though, the team would need to talk to Hawkins. Luke Weaver It's a much more traditional pairing of fastball and change from Weaver. He throws a mid-90s fastball with good life about 60% of the time, and leans heavily on the changeup only as a complement thereto. Although he bloomed late, Weaver has been a sturdy presence in the Yankees bullpen for the last two-plus seasons. Discovering the right changeup changed his career. His pitch is much more of a power change, with fade and downward action but not the telltale, erratic tumble of the lower-spin split-change he used to employ. Batters whiff on this version of the cambio over 40% of the time, which has driven a 29.4% strikeout rate since he arrived in the Bronx. dnZCMWpfWGw0TUFRPT1fQmdSV1VnVlZWQUFBRHdCUkJBQUhCd0VDQUFOVVVWWUFDbE1HQVZZR0NWQlRVd0ZR.mp4 Our DiamondCentric Top 50 Free Agents list ranked Weaver 37th and forecasted a two-year, $16-million deal for him this winter. That still looks like a reasonable projection. It's probably also the highest the Twins would go to get him, but Weaver would be an instant closer for the depleted relief corps. Kyle Finnegan Considering Finnegan is like studying the midpoint between Kahnle and Weaver. He uses his splitter more than Weaver uses his change, but less than Kahnle does. Kahnle is 36; Weaver is 32; Finnegan is 34. The former Nationals closer came to Detroit at the trade deadline in July and enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. He throws harder than either of the others and has a highly kinetic delivery, launching himself at the batter in a way that makes his sharply sinking splitter especially deceptive. WEQyZDJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3RllWVkFIVXdBQVhGTldCd0FIQUFKVUFGaFFBVmNBVmxkVEJGY01VQUFHQmxGZQ==.mp4 Way down at 48th on the DiamondCentric Top 50, Finnegan is projected for a one-year deal worth $6 million. If he actually signs for anything in that range, he'd be perfect for the Twins. He'd be eminently tradeable, if it came to that, but he'd also deliver high-octane heat and that swing-and-miss splitter to a pen that has missed those things since the trades that sent away Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. The Twins threw more offspeed pitches than all teams but the Angels and Tigers in 2025. They love changeups and splitters, not only for their ability to keep hitters off a good fastball, but for the way they thwart opposite-handed batters. Finnegan and Weaver have huge platoon splits, but they go in the opposite of the usual direction: they're better against lefties than righties. Kahnle has only occasionally been that good against lefties, but his change plays against righties, too. All three of these hurlers would be solid back-end relief options for the Twins, who need to be better than average at converting late leads into wins if they want to sneak to the front of the crowded but unintimidating AL Central. None will come at great expense. While it might be a quiet winter for Derek Falvey and Company, even on a tight budget, opportunities abound. View the full article

On November 26, news broke that the Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, pending the results of a physical. If completed, the deal would be the most significant financial commitment that Toronto has made to a free agent. According to multiple websites, including DiamondCentric, FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors, the top three MLB-proven free-agent starters were Cease, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez. From Toronto’s perspective, what separated Cease from Valdez and Suárez? Let us start with the basics. Cease is a seven-year MLB veteran with career ERA, xERA, and FIP marks of 3.88, 3.66, and 3.67, respectively. Valdez has eight MLB seasons on his resume and has posted career ERA, xERA, and FIP metrics of 3.36, 3.76, and 3.51, respectively. Suárez has generated ERA, xERA, and FIP numbers of 3.38, 3.61, and 3.54 during his eight-year MLB career. Those xERA and FIP numbers would make any of these starters attractive to MLB teams. Let us focus on the seasons post-2021, when all three pitchers became full-time members of a starting rotation. Accordingly, behold Table 1. I used ERA- and FIP- instead of ERA and FIP to account for park factors and run-scoring environments across different seasons. I was unable to find an xERA- equivalent. One can note a slight difference in FIP- between these starters during the 2022-2025 period. According to xERA, Cease (3.40) has pitched better than Valdez (3.69) and Suárez (3.74). If one considers ERA-, Cease does not look as attractive as Valdez or Suárez. Cease’s 2025 112 ERA- and 2023 107 ERA- raise a Spockian eyebrow. However, BABIP is a factor. Cease’s career BABIP is .295. Yet, in 2025 and 2023, his BABIPs were .320 and .330, respectively. Those elevated BABIP numbers suggest that Cease experienced a bit of bad luck or poor defence behind him. Regarding defence, the fielders behind him in 2022 and 2024 posted OAA numbers of +1 and -2, respectively. In 2023 and 2025, Cease’s defence generated OAA marks of -7 in both years. It is impossible to quantify the impact of luck on Cease’s elevated BABIP, but the OAA numbers show that poor defence probably boosted his 2025 and 2023 ERAs. For comparison purposes, Valdez’s 2025 BABIP was .297, and Suárez's was .317, both of which were 15 points higher than their career marks before 2025. Cease’s 2025 BABIP was 30 points higher than his pre-2025 career BABIP. Also, the 2025 defences behind Valdez and Suárez posted OAA marks of +7 and 0, respectively. Therefore, all factors considered, Cease’s 2022-2025 ERA-, FIP-, and xERA scores are comparable to those of Valdez and Suárez. A quick word on Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. Please take a look at Table 2. In 2025, Cease and Valdez were above average according to Stuff+, and Suárez produced the best Location+ mark among starters. All three excel at the factors considered by Pitching+. Based on these models, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were, overall, particularly good in 2025. Okay, what is the first separator? Glance upon Table 3! Cease and Valdez have been exceptionally durable. Since 2022, Cease’s 130 starts are the second most in MLB, Valdez’s 121 starts are the 11th highest, and Suárez's 104 starts rank 34th. Regarding innings, Valdez is #2, Cease #7, and Suárez #31. Suárez has not been as durable as Cease or Valdez. In 2022, 2024, and 2025, he was on the IL due to back issues, totalling 87 days. In 2023, Suárez had two stints on the IL: 45 days with an arm ailment and 15 days because of a hamstring injury. Durability is the first separator between Cease and Suárez. Gaze upon Table 4, as we have another separator: Cease's strikeout rate over the past four seasons is 29.2%, much higher than Valdez's (23.9%) and Suárez's (22.0%). Among all pitchers, in 2025, Cease’s K% ranked in the 89th percentile, whereas Valdez and Suárez both ranked in the 55th percentile. A metric related to K% is Whiff%. Concerning 2025 Whiff%, Cease ranked in the 95th percentile among all pitchers, while Valdez was 59th and Suárez 24th. For the Blue Jays, who emphasize a low K%, high contact rate, and OBP when it comes to hitting, seeking the opposite attributes in a pitcher would be logical. Hence, Cease’s high-ranking K% and Whiff% would make him stand out for Toronto compared to Valdez and Suárez. Okay, we must talk about Cease’s BB% because it is high (in the 20th percentile in 2025). Cease’s BB% ranking pales in comparison to Suárez's (86th percentile) and even Valdez's (40th percentile). However, there are two positives of note. First, pitching coach Pete Walker has a history of helping pitchers lower their BB%. Remember Robbie Ray, a high K% and BB% starter? From 2018 to 2020, Ray posted a 30.7 K% but a 13.1 BB%. However, after working with Walker, Ray generated a 32.1 K% and 6.7 BB% on his way to the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with Toronto. Second, despite the high BB%, Cease’s 2025 K-BB% was 19.9%, which ranked 24th among the 166 starters with at least 60 innings. Valdez and Suárez ranked 69th and 40th, respectively. Therefore, Cease’s higher K-BB% would be attractive to a team like the Blue Jays that seeks a high K% (net of BB%) from their starters. Concerning K% and BB%, a final comment. Table 3 shows that, in terms of average innings per 2025 start, Valdez and Suárez had noticeably longer outings than Cease. A likely reason for Cease’s shorter outings was his average of 4.23 pitches-per-plate appearance (“P/PA”). The P/PA marks of Valdez and Suárez were 3.61 and 3.74, respectively. There are two likely reasons for Cease’s higher P/PA. First, one cause could be his high K%. According to Baseball Savant, in 2025, among the 170 starters who faced at least 250 batters, Cease had the 10th-highest K%. Notably, seven of these 10 starters had P/PA rates above the median (3.88). Second, of the 25 starters with the highest BB% (Cease was #24), 19 had P/PA numbers higher than the median. Accordingly, given Cease’s higher K% and BB% rates, we should expect shorter outings from Cease compared to Valdez and Suárez. I guess Toronto can accept shorter outings, given all the other positives Cease brings to the table. Yet, if Walker can work his magic with Cease, a lower BB% should lead to longer outings. Another element of Cease’s performance is his ability to positively contribute to controlling the running game. A hat tip to Sportsnet’s Chris Black (@DownToBlack) for highlighting Cease’s effectiveness in this area. During the 2022-2025 period, according to Baseball Savant, Cease ranked second in Net Bases Prevented (“NBP”) with a score of 25. Valdez (-14) was 482nd of 503 pitchers, and Suárez (8) was 60th. This past season, Toronto’s pitchers (starters and relievers) generated a -11 NBP, which ranked 22nd. Among Toronto’s notable starters in 2025, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt each posted -5 NBPs, Eric Lauer a -3, and Max Scherzer a -2. Bowden Francis and José Berríos had +3 NBPs, and Shane Bieber posted +1. Therefore, Toronto’s addition of Cease should improve the team's effectiveness at limiting the running game of other teams more than either Valdez or Suárez. The Last Word When the free agency period commenced this offseason, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were at the top of the class. All three starters have produced excellent FIP-, xERA, and Pitching+ numbers in their careers. Yet, it is understandable why Toronto would prefer Cease over Valdez and Suárez. Compared to Valdez, Cease is two years younger; has better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% numbers; and is superior at neutralizing the running game. Judged against Suárez, Cease has been more durable; has a better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% profile; and has proven more effective at controlling the running game. It is clear why Cease stood above Valdez and Suárez in the eyes of the Blue Jays. View the full article

It’s no secret that the Boston Red Sox need a few additional reinforcements after the team finally returned to the postseason in 2025. The only position group that appears set as we move towards the 2026 season is the outfield and even then, someone from that group will likely need to be traded to bring in talent that can push the Red Sox over the edge in 2026. Obviously, there are a few names on the free-agent and trade markets that have experience in Boston, so running it back with them could prove intriguing during this opening phase of the team's competitive window. Let’s take a look at three names that could potentially be back in the fold once spring training starts in February. For this exercise, we'll stay away from top free-agent names like Alex Bregman that the team should obviously already be in conversations with, and instead focus on a few under-the-radar players. #3: Chris Martin, RHP Martin signed for the 2025 season with his hometown Texas Rangers, but was close to returning to the Red Sox before that deal was put on the table. He pitched his way to a 2.98 ERA over 42 1/3 innings pitched. He posted a 24.7% strikeout percentage against a 4.6 walk rate on the season and was one of the better relievers in baseball. He’s currently 39 and will turn 40 during the 2026 season, but if he doesn’t hang up his cleats, he could be interested in a one-year reunion with a team that could be poised to steamroll its way to the World Series with just a few tweaks. Martin was a dependable arm out of the pen in 2023 and 2024 and can offer veteran leadership to a group of mostly young arms, outside of Aroldis Chapman. #2: Steven Matz, LHP In 2025, the Red Sox maybe had too many left-handed relievers. The bullpen was loaded with guys like Brennan Bernardino, Chris Murphy, Matz, and Justin Wilson. That doesn’t count guys like Sean Newcomb who didn’t stick with the team or when Payton Tolle shifted to the bullpen for the postseason. Now though? Chapman might be the lone lefty penciled into the Opening Day bullpen. He needs another southpaw to help set him up, and Matz was more than fine in his middle-relief role after he was acquired from the Cardinals at the 2025 trade deadline. He’s not going to blow anyone away, but he’s dependable and that’s what the Red Sox need through the middle innings. He’d likely come fairly cheap on a short-term deal, so there’s very limited downside to bringing Matz back into the fold, especially given his long experience as a starting pitcher. #1: Nathan Eovaldi, RHP The Rangers seem to be in a bit of an odd place at the moment. It’s hard to tell if they are playing for anything of note in 2026 or if they are approaching a full fire sale. They just traded Marcus Semien to the Mets, there are rumors surrounding Corey Seager, and they’ve non-tendered both Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim. If the Rangers are indeed selling to rebuild, the Red Sox have to make a call about adding Eovaldi back to the rotation. Even with the addition of Sonny Gray, the Sox still need a true number two starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet, and Eovaldi checks that box. He didn’t post a full season in 2025, only appearing in 22 games for 130 innings pitched. In that time, though, he worked an incredible 1.73 ERA to go along with a 26% strikeout rate, a 4.2% walk rate, and a 3.7 fWAR. On top of all of that, he’s a former champion with the Red Sox and a postseason legend. Bringing him back won’t come cheap, even if the Rangers are selling, but he’s worth the investment. He’s signed through the 2027 season with a $25 million AAV. That's not ridiculously expensive — likely cheaper than the top free-agent starters on the market — and his pedigree speaks for itself. There are various other former Red Sox who could end up back in Boston this offseason, but if the front office is interested in bringing in former rostered members, then they need to be looking at the pitching market before anywhere else. Both the free-agent and trade markets have yet to really get moving, so it’s anyone’s guess as to which former members of the team could be returning for the 2026 season. View the full article

The realistic best-case scenario did not materialize for the Miami Marlins. They were hopeful that Devin Williams would be available at a sharply discounted rate coming off a career-worst 4.79 ERA in 2025. Alas, the market coveted his elite swing-and-miss ability and the New York Mets ultimately won the bidding with a three-year, $51 million deal. Who's still out there for the Marlins? We have to assume that former Met Edwin Díaz is out of their price range as he reportedly expects something in the five-year, $100 million range. These are the other MLB free agents who were primarily used as closers last season: RHP Robert Suarez (2.97 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 27.9 K%, 3.16 WPA, 40 SV in 69.2 IP) RHP Pete Fairbanks (2.83 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 24.2 K%, 0.93 WPA, 27 SV in 60.1 IP) RHP Kyle Finnegan (3.47 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 24.0 K%, 0.84 WPA, 24 SV in 57.0 IP) RHP Emilio Pagán (2.88 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 30.0 K%, 1.09 WPA, 32 SV in 68.2 IP) RHP Kenley Jansen (2.59 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 24.4 K%, 3.46 WPA, 29 SV in 59.0 IP) The Marlins specifically have a dearth of reliable left-handers on their current bullpen depth chart. Although less likely to be used consistently in the ninth inning, that could make the likes of Danny Coulombe, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Ferguson, Gregory Soto, Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Chafin and Hoby Milner appealing on short-term contracts. View the full article

The automatic ball-strike challenge system (ABS) is coming to the major leagues in 2026 after being tested in the minor leagues for the last several years. That late-inning ball that should have been a strikeout to end the game, and the era of irate managers kicking dirt over home plate may be winding down. Davy Andrews of FanGraphs wrote a piece discussing some numbers on challenge rate, success rate, and more at the MLB level. The challenge rate has little player-by-player data available, so until the 2026 season begins in earnest, we are going to take a look at the stats we do have and see if it’s time for Salvador Perez to hand the reins over to the next generation. Perez is coming into his age-36 season and entering 2026 as one of the worst framers in baseball, per Baseball Savant’s framing value ranking, 49th out of 57 catchers in 2025 at -7 runs. His blocking is also at the bottom of the barrel per Savant’s blocking value ranking, second-to-last at -15 runs, with only Agustin Ramirez behind him, who is almost twice as bad. The shortened 2020 season and 2024 were the only years he had a positive framing run value, with his other years since 2018 not exceeding -6 runs. Carter Jensen, the only real competition for playing time behind the plate until 2023 1st-round pick Blake Mitchell, is ready. He doesn’t have the same sample size as Perez (225 pitches vs. 2,636), but he comes in at zero Catcher Runs, already above the league average of -1 run. Jensen’s blocking value (219 opportunities vs. Perez’s 3,365) came in at -1 runs, which ranks 75th out of 99 catchers that saw at least 100 pitches. Perez struggles to frame balls on his arm side of the plate; his biggest gap is shown in the shadow zone’s left and right portions of the zone, going from +3 runs on the left to -4 runs on the right. Jensen comes in right at zero runs for both. With the Royals projected to have three left-handed starters in 2026, it would make sense to use Perez on those days and Jensen with the right-handed starters, given each pitcher's pitch usage and arsenal, if we are maximizing shadow zone value. As a team, the Royals were first in the league in slider run value and third in changeup run value in 2025, but were 13th and 3rd in total usage, respectively. If the team chooses to increase the use of sliders across the board, that would provide another reason to maintain the Salvy-for-lefties and Jensen-for-righties setup. Part of framing’s value also comes from ensuring that strikes stay strikes, as Davy Andrews again mentions in this piece. This is where Perez shows a higher strike percentage, yet still has a lower run value of -2, versus Jensen’s zero runs. Jensen shows his advantage as you get further outside the zone compared to Perez: again, zero runs for Jensen vs -4 runs for Perez. This chart from Baseball Savant’s framing leaderboard shows the disparity of how far inside vs. outside the strike zone you are. Noticeably, Jensen’s called strike percent is only 68 percent on pitches 1-2 inches inside the zone, while Perez sits at 77 percent, both below league average at 79 percent. Jensen has the advantage in every way outside the zone pitches, so that he will steal more strikes than Perez, but we need strikes to be strikes. Armed with this data, I don’t expect the Royals to make a big change purely for framing or defensive reasons. It’s going to come from the fact that Perez is turning 36 and his offensive production is naturally declining. While he has stayed healthier the last two seasons, much of this can likely be attributed to the shift to first base and designated hitter to provide more rest and keep his bat in the lineup, even though he has been most productive as a catcher. wRC+ by position and year 2024 2025 C 124 (90 G) 107 (92 G) 1B 111 (47 G) 88 (28 G) DH 97 (23 G) 73 (38 G) Jensen is forcing his way into the lineup, given his offensive production and league-average defense at a minimum. Steamer is projecting him for 68 games, and the FanGraphs depth charts project him for 91 games. If he splits half of these at DH and half at catcher, it’ll provide ample opportunity to rest both Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino as the three cycle through catcher, first base, and designated hitter. With Perez signing a two-year extension, he’s not going anywhere just yet, but this will give Jensen a chance to learn from the captain before taking over full-time. Once Mitchell is deemed ready to join the majors, this puzzle gets a whole lot more complicated, but we will leave that for another time. View the full article

The Twins' farm system continues to churn out intriguing players, and 2026 could be a year where several under-the-radar names take a significant jump. Minnesota leaned heavily on its young depth last season, and the front office would love nothing more than to see another wave push forward. Each player below sits at a different stage of professional development. One arrived in the organization as part of last season’s trade deadline overhaul. Another was selected in last July’s draft, and has yet to make his professional debut. The final player signed as a teenager and made his Stateside debut in 2025. Here are three prospects who delivered encouraging signs in 2025 and now look poised to take the next step. Kendry Rojas, LHP (Current TD Rank: 8) His 2025 Performance: Rojas joined the Twins as the key piece in the return for Louis Varland at the trade deadline. Minnesota spoke highly of him after the deal, and they pushed him aggressively to Triple-A St. Paul, where the 22-year-old was over five years younger than the average age of the competition. For the year, he tossed 69 innings and posted a 4.70 ERA, with a 28.8 K% and a 10.3 BB%. His strikeout rate took a healthy leap (up 1.8% compared to 2024), thanks to a sharper slider and better pitch sequencing. Rojas did not dominate every start, but he showed much more poise working out of traffic and limiting damage. Why He Could Break Out in 2026: Rojas feels like the type of pitcher who might take off once the command settles into a stable place, especially as he gets a full season at Triple A and more time to work with the Twins’ development staff. The raw ingredients are undeniably exciting. His fastball has life at the top of the zone, and his slider flashes above average, with a late-biting shape that produces plenty of awkward swings. With a full offseason to refine his changeup and continue building confidence, he could become one of the most talked-about left-handed arms in the system. If he carries the momentum from late 2025 into next spring, he could be a top-100 prospect by midseason. Riley Quick, RHP (Current TD Rank: 13) His 2025 Performance: The Twins drafted Quick with the 36th overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. They held off on having him make his professional debut, after he had tossed 62 innings during his final collegiate season. In 14 games, he posted a 3.92 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and 25.9% strikeout rate. The most significant step came when he noticeably reduced his walk rate (8.9%) and looked more comfortable challenging hitters early in counts. While he may not have posted eye-popping numbers, Quick showed the tools of a pitcher growing into his frame and learning how to pitch with intent. Why He Could Break Out in 2026: If you are looking for a classic pitching prospect trajectory, Quick fits the mold perfectly. His stuff is trending up as he adds strength and leans into a compact delivery that the organization believes can lead to even more velocity. He had Tommy John surgery in 2024, and many pitchers see improvements in command and stuff as they move further away from that operation. The cutter-slider combination already gives him multiple ways to finish at-bats. With more physical development ahead and a clearer understanding of how his arsenal plays, he could emerge as one of the more exciting right-handed arms in the lower minors. Based on his college experience, he could reach Double-A Wichita in the second half of 2026—or move even faster. Eduardo Beltre, OF (Current TD Rank: NA) His 2025 Performance: Beltre delivered one of the most intriguing stat lines in the lower levels in 2025. Splitting time between the Florida Complex League and the Florida State League, he showed flashes of an impressive all-around skill set. He was making his Stateside debut, after impressing in the Dominican Summer League in 2024 with a 1.071 OPS. The 18-year-old struggled to reproduce those totals with a .623 OPS in 78 games. However, he was one of the youngest players at both levels, with nearly 96% of his plate appearances coming against older pitchers. Beltre’s speed also stood out, as he improved his reads in the outfield and grew more comfortable on the bases (25-for-29 in stolen base attempts). Why He Could Break Out in 2026: Beltre has the type of athletic foundation that gives evaluators plenty to dream on. His bat speed jumps off the screen, and the Twins believe there is more power to unlock as he continues to add strength. Combine that with above-average speed, and the ingredients for a dynamic outfielder start to take shape. The next step will be to find consistency in his approach, since pitchers will challenge him more aggressively as he moves up. If he makes the necessary adjustments and continues to tap into his natural tools, Beltre could make a rapid climb up the organizational rankings by the end of 2026. The Twins will rely heavily on their young depth over the next few seasons, and these three prospects have a chance to push themselves into that mix. A strong offseason and a little momentum could turn them into the most talked-about names in the system by this time next year. Will these prospects break out in 2026? Who will you be keeping an eye on in the Twins’ farm system? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

It didn't take long for smoke signals about payroll pressure to emerge from the Brewers' camp this offseason. Those concerns are probably overblown, but they reflect a truth about winning in Milwaukee that doesn't apply to many other teams. It's possible that the same constraints that have compelled the Crew to forge a specific mode of operation over the last decade (and the same ruthless devotion to that system that has led to previous trades of this ilk) will lead the team to trade Freddy Peralta this winter, even if they don't actually have to do so. Few teams are harder to read than the Brewers, because baseball operations chief Matt Arnold runs one of the game's tightest ships when it comes to preventing leaks to the media. He's also a shrewd manipulator of the discourse around his team. Even if he had a budget far larger than he felt was needed, he wouldn't say so. That would only give agents (for players available in free agency and those with whom he might wish to sign extensions) and trade partners more leverage. Whether Arnold had anything to do with the report in The Athletic that downplayed the team's capacity this winter or not, that notion made its way through the rumor mill, without Arnold attached to it. It confirms things outsiders tend to believe about Milwaukee anyway, so it will be viewed as credible even if it isn't true. The team can use the rumor to avoid being bidded up on the market, while they lurk as unexpected players on certain free agents because they actually have more to spend than others believe. However, it inarguably made a major difference when Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Brewers for $22.025 million last month. He's now soaking up at least 15% of the team's payroll, and while they have lots of cost-controlled young players who aren't yet eligible for arbitration, they also have a growing list of somewhat expensive players. William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, Woodruff, Peralta, and Christian Yelich head the list, but don't ignore the fact that Jackson Chourio's salary rises to $7 million in 2026, too. If the team wants to make any material improvements to their roster, they might need to subtract some money in the process. Peralta is the trade candidate who offers both the opportunity for a high-end return and substantial cost savings, if dealt. He's the player for whom the team could get big value, making themselves even more nimble and dynamic for the next half-decade. He and Woodruff are the only ones whose value is confined to 2026, since they'll each hit free agency thereafter. While a Peralta trade is not necessary (and would be difficult, for many within the organization, because of what Peralta means to the clubhouse), it might turn out to be the right move—and Arnold nearly always makes the right move, even when it hurts. Here, therefore, are five teams who look like strong suitors for Peralta. Baltimore Orioles Fans in and around Baltimore are ravenous for a big move—a massive, multi-year financial commitment to a free agent. They want head honcho Mike Elias to announce, in effect, that his team is once again one of baseball's heavy hitters. That's not Elias's style, though. He might make an exception for the perfect player, but it's telling that—two years after trading for Corbin Burnes and one year after letting Burnes walk via free agency, while signing Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton, Andrew Kittredge and Tyler O'Neill—the Orioles started this winter by trading oft-injured pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for outfielder Taylor Ward and signing closer Ryan Helsley to a short-term deal. The prospect pipeline has been spilling forth young hitters for a few years already, but the Orioles' farm system remains reasonably deep. They also have young players with big-league experience under their belt who could be good fits for the Brewers' needs. Outfielders Colton Cowser, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers; uptrend pitching prospects Nestor German and Braxton Bragg; and a likely Competitive Balance Round A draft pick are all pieces Milwaukee and Baltimore could discuss. Detroit Tigers One of the nice things about Peralta, relative to other players on the verge of free agency, is that he's very affordable. At just $8 million, his price tag for 2026 is much lower than those of many similarly talented pitchers in their final seasons of team control. (For instance, Burnes made $15.6 million in 2024, for Baltimore.) That widens the pool of plausible suitors, to include teams like the Tigers. After Jack Flaherty opted in on the second year of his deal and Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer, Detroit faces some payroll constraints of their own, but they're very much in the mix for the 2026 AL Central crown. Should they trade Tarik Skubal—but even if they don't—they'll need an infusion of high-quality starting rotation depth to position themselves for a deeper run next October. Detroit's farm system is much stronger than the Orioles', too. Milwaukee could target high-end catching prospects Thayron Liranzo or Josue Briceño, with an eye toward replacing Contreras with the combination of Jeferson Quero and one of the two youngsters in 2027. Alternatively, they could focus on a big-leaguer like Zach McKinstry, and/or thr Tigers' own tradable draft pick for 2026. Houston Astros No team with whom Peralta could land this winter would be a better match between player and new team, in terms of pitching philosophy. The Astros love smallish, highly athletic pitchers with a feel for spin and a willingness to issue the occasional walk as the price of missing as many bats as possible. Despite being a dynastic force in one of the league's biggest markets, they're also under some financial strain this winter. Reportedly, Houston doesn't want to exceed the lowest competitive-balance tax threshold, but that ties their hands, and they need to replace the departing Framber Valdez. Houston is shopping center fielder Jake Meyers, a valuable, well-rounded player—but Meyers isn't much of a fit for Milwaukee. Peralta could be so perfect a fit in Houston that the Astros would entertain getting a third team involved, sending Meyers elsewhere while the Brewers rake in players from the third party in exchange for Peralta. Failing that, though, Milwaukee could try to buy low on the talented Cam Smith, or load up on the depth in the upper levels of Houston's system. Pitchers AJ Blubaugh, Bryce Mayer and Miguel Ullola and top positional prospects Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton would all come up in conversations between the teams. New York Yankees Though they're a fairly robust player development machine, the Yankees are going through one of their periodic downcycles in terms of prospect depth. They lack both expendable young players on the big-league roster and compelling pieces in the middle ranges of their top prospect list. Their best prospect, George Lombard Jr., would not be available in a Peralta trade, and third-ranked prospect Dax Kilby is too far away from the majors to headline a Peralta deal from the Brewers' perspective. The sweet spot is Puerto Rican righthander Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, a lanky five-pitch starter who got to Triple A at the end of 2025 and has a chance to be contributing in the majors by the end of 2026. There are several other promising arms in the upper levels of the minors for New York, so a deal is possible, but the team's lingering injury concerns—they'll enter spring training without certainty about the timelines of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Chase Hampton—could make it hard for them to let their best healthy young hurlers go. Texas Rangers Much like the Astros, the Rangers want to contend in 2026, but they're up against the tax threshold and don't want to spend what it looks like it will take to win the AL West again. Therefore, Peralta's cost-effective upside has to be highly appealing. Like the Yankees and Astros, Texas has a thinned-out farm system, showing the ravages of years of trying to win in the short term and the imbalance of the rules that dole out extra picks and international spending allotments to small-market teams at the expense of large-market ones. Unlike New York, though, the Rangers have lots of young players on the edges of their roster who could appeal to the Brewers in a deal. Starters Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz; twice-stumbling former top prospect Justin Foscue; and a bevy of relievers could be in play. The tough part would be finding a headliner who suits what the Brewers want to do in 2026; the Rangers' best talents are a couple years away. Crucially, all these teams play in the American League. The Brewers could trade Peralta to the Mets, the Dodgers or the Giants, but they could meet any of them as early as the Wild Card Series. Sending Peralta to the junior circuit would ensure that the Brewers only encounter him in 2026 if they reach the World Series, and they should be able to extract a comparable return from one of these suitors. That makes these five teams the natural landing spots, if Peralta does end up anywhere but Milwaukee for the final year of his contract. View the full article

As the Chicago Cubs firmly enter offseason mode, they’ll explore all avenues in an attempt to make the team better for 2026. One of those avenues is via trade, which can sometimes involve pieces at the minor-league level, and can sometimes involve players at the big-league level, like the recent Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo trade. In this article, we’ll take a look at the Cubs’ 10 most important players at the big league level, and consider their overall likelihood of being traded this winter. You can find part one of this series, where we looked at the back half of the Cubs’ top 10 players, here. Today, we’ll take a peek at the top five. 5 - Dansby Swanson Pros: Dansby Swanson is an incredibly productive player. Since signing with the Cubs before the 2023 season, his 12.4 FanGraphs WAR is 25th-best in baseball, ahead of names like Alex Bregman, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Since 2020, the shortstop is 13th in fWAR. Cons: So much of Swanson’s value is in his defense, and he just had his worst defensive season since 2021. According to Baseball Savant, he was worth just three runs above average in the field in 2025. That is still a good number, though it is a concerning drop from being worth 12 runs above average in 2024. The bat has never been anything other than average to slightly above average. Defense, and the ability to defend at a premium position like shortstop, is his carrying tool. He’ll be 32 on Opening Day of next season, so it is fair to wonder how much longer he’ll be an above-average shortstop. Not to mention, he still has another four years and $109m left on his contract. Trade Likelihood: Low The contact is just too much for a player that has most likely hit his decline phase. If the Cubs do look to explore a deal here, it’ll most likely be to get off of the money, rather than to make the team better. Dansby Swanson, while an imperfect player, is still a good one, and he can still help them win in 2026. 4 - Nico Hoerner Pros: I could wax poetic about Nico Hoerner for more than just the one paragraph that I have here. He is 18th in baseball in fWAR since his first fully healthy season on the North Side in 2022. According to a recent article from Bruce Levine, Cubs officials view him as a leader. He moved from shortstop to second base with no complaints and has gone on to win two Gold Gloves at his new position. Cons: The Gold Glover will turn 29 next season, and while that isn’t exactly old, it is fair to wonder how much of his profile will age particularly well. He is a speed and glove-first player whose offensive profile walks a razor-thin line. He offers very little slugging and relies on a lot of groundballs and line drives to find space for singles. Trade Likelihood: Medium I, personally, would be heartbroken if the Cubs traded Hoerner, but I am also willing to concede that it might make sense. He’ll be a free agent after the 2026 season, and if the Cubs won’t give him another contract, they could look to recoup some of his value by dealing him for pitching help. 3 - Cade Horton Pros: The rookie was an absolute horse for the Cubs in the second half, pitching to a 1.03 ERA in 61 1/3 innings. His absence in the postseason was very much felt, and given that it was just his first year in the big leagues, the Cubs will have control of him for a while. Cons: His absence in the postseason, for one. The 2025 campaign was the first season of his professional career where he eclipsed 100 innings pitched. Injuries seem to be a recurring theme for the former Oklahoma Sooner. His second-half production took a unique shape, as well. Nobody has the true talent of a 1.03 ERA pitcher; his 2.79 FIP suggested some room for regression, and his strikeout rate of 23.5 percent was simply good, not great. Trade Likelihood: Low Horton, for better or worse, is the Cubs’ guy. They took a slight risk by taking him in the first round of the 2022 MLB Draft, and in 2025, it looked like a great decision. So much of the Cubs’ success in 2026 will depend on the young right-hander. You can pencil him into the front half of the starting rotation for next season and beyond. 2 - Michael Busch Pros: Busch took a huge step forward in the power department in 2025, going from 21 home runs in 2024 to 34 this past season. His strikeout rate went from one of the worst in the league to simply a little bit below average, and as a result of those two things, he went from a 118 wRC+ to a 140 wRC+. Cons: Michael Busch plays first base, and simply put, he’ll have to consistently post seasons with a 140 wRC+ to truly be a very valuable player. By wRC+, he was the ninth-best hitter in baseball, however, by fWAR, he was just the 45th-most valuable. At 28, he’s also old for someone entering his third full season in the big leagues. He’s still a great player, but the reason to be skeptical with Busch is the same reason why teams have been hesitant to give a big contract to Pete Alonso. Trade Likelihood: Low-to-Medium While Busch had a really good profile at the plate in 2025, if the Cubs don’t believe he is truly a 140 wRC+ type of hitter, they could look to cash in on the young first baseman now. I’d still be shocked if it happened, but for someone so obsessed with value, I can see Jed Hoyer deciding to deal Busch at a time when his value will most likely never be higher. 1 - Pete Crow-Armstrong Pros: Crow-Armstrong was in the MVP discussion after a sterling first half of the season that saw him put up a batting line of .265/.302/.544. Combine that with his defensive value and blazing speed on the basepaths, and he was one of the best players in baseball. Cons: He was one of the worst offensive players in the second half of the season, with a batting line of .216/.262/.372. He still gives value because of the defense and speed, but this is a guy that just looked completely hopeless at the plate at times. Trade Likelihood: Low The error bars on Pete Crow-Armstrong’s career are very wide. Is he the guy who carried the Cubs in the first half? Or the one that contributed to so much of their struggles in the second half? Either way, he’ll always give value because of the defense. I imagine if the Cubs did look to deal him, though, they’d find all sorts of differing opinions on what his value really is. Combine that with the fact that he is a fan favorite, and I just can’t see a trade that sends him out of town happening. The potential is way too tantalizing. View the full article

Since 2019, the Blue Jays have had the luxury of having Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette anchor their infield. The team’s glaring issue in the infield has been a lack of stability at third base since Matt Chapman left, along with a rotating door at second. Enter Nolan Arenado, a player whose name has been synonymous with elite defense and consistent offensive production for over a decade. With the St. Louis Cardinals signaling a rebuild and Arenado reportedly open to expanding his list of teams to whom he'd accept a trade, the Jays have a unique opportunity to acquire a future Hall of Famer. Arenado fits the Jays’ roster and their financial and performance needs, and the trade price might be within the team’s means. Arenado has two guaranteed years remaining on his current deal. The details of his contract are complicated, but in simplest terms, he will make a $27 million salary in 2026 (although $5 million of that will be paid by the Rockies and $6 million is deferred) and a $15 million salary in 2027. Arendo holds a full no-trade clause, but recent reports suggest he would be willing to waive it in the right situation. The Cardinals, after trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox and signaling a payroll reset, appear motivated to move Arenado before the start of the season. Arenado’s offensive numbers dipped last season. He slashed .237/.289/.377 with 12 home runs and 52 RBIs, marking his weakest full season since his rookie year. However, his defensive value remains strong. He is projected to be at least a top-25 third baseman next season. For a Jays team that ranked near the bottom in third base production last season, Arenado could represent a meaningful upgrade. Advanced metrics underscore Arenado’s value. In 2025, he posted +6 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), ranking among the top third basemen in MLB. These numbers highlight his ability to convert difficult plays into outs, a skill that directly reduces opponent scoring opportunities. For a team like the Jays that relies heavily on pitching efficiency, Arenado’s glove could be the difference in tight games against division rivals. If the season were to start tomorrow, the Jays would likely continue with Ernie Clement at third, occasionally spelled by Addison Barger. They are a serviceable duo, but are not elite. Arenado is arguably one of the best defenders in MLB history. He has won 10 Gold Gloves and six Platinum Gloves during his career. Overall, the Jays’ third base defense was solid last season but not exceptional. Clement’s reliability helped stabilize the infield, but Barger’s occasional difficulties posed some concern. That inconsistency was exacerbated by injuries during the season, which forced John Schneider to shuffle his lineup. The Jays finished the year with strong team defensive metrics (+40 Fielding Run Value overall), but there is no question that an upgrade at third base could be key to sustaining success in 2026. On many occasions throughout 2025, the Jays’ defence kept the team in games when the bats weren’t humming, and if they want to repeat last year’s success, that defence will need to be at least as good. Arenado would also provide veteran leadership. He was part of playoff teams in Colorado and St. Louis, so he could bring that experience and leadership to the Toronto clubhouse. He is known for his work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader and could easily slide into the role that players like Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Isiah Kiner-Falefa provided last season. The price for Arenado might not be as high as it would have been during his prime. Arenado saw his OPS+ drop last season, but he remains capable of hitting more than 20 home runs and providing over 70 RBIs if healthy. His hard-hit rate has declined, but a move to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre could help. Even at his current level, Arenado should offer more offensive production than the combo of Clement and Barger. Another bonus for the Jays would be that Arenado has the skills to play first base as well, providing some defensive insurance if Guerrero needs a break or gets injured. Arenado could also stabilize the left side of the infield if Bichette doesn’t re-sign and provides options for the Jays should they wish to further test drive Andrés Giménez or Clement at short. Arenado’s remaining salary would be manageable for the Jays to take on. St. Louis might even agree to cover part of the cost. The Jays have shown a willingness to absorb contracts, such as in last offseason’s Giménez trade, and could justify this move as a short-term investment to maximize their competitive window. The biggest hurdle is Arenado’s no-trade clause. Historically, he has preferred destinations like Los Angeles or Boston, but recent comments suggest he may expand his list. Toronto’s playoff aspirations and current roster could make the Jays an attractive option, but that doesn’t mean the front office won’t need to sell Arenado on the fit and possibly sweeten the deal with financial incentives. The trade cost for Arenado wouldn't be interesting. Ultimately, a deal like this would balance the Cardinals’ desire to clear payroll with Toronto’s desire for immediate impact. That said, acquiring Arenado wouldn't come without risk. He turns 35 in April, and his offensive contributions may now be on the decline. But remember, analysts said the same about George Springer heading into last season. If Arenado can perform as he has in the past, he would provide a potent bat, veteran leadership and an elite glove to the Jays to support another potential deep run in 2026. While his contract, age, and no-trade clause pose challenges, the Cardinals’ rebuild and Arenado’s openness to a change create a window for the Jays. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have been somewhat active early this offseason, protecting six prospects from Rule 5 Draft eligibility; trading pitching prospect Jacob Kisting to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-handed reliever Eric Orze; and swapping Triple-A utility player Payton Eeles for former Baltimore Orioles backup catcher Alex Jackson. More moves should occur this offseason. Still, it's vital to take note of where the club's 26-man roster currently stands. Which players could form Minnesota's 2026 Opening Day roster, if the season began tomorrow? Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Alex Jackson Since 2023, catcher has been the easiest position to project for the Twins, with Jeffers and veteran backstop Christian Vàzquez fixed in a 50/50 split at the position. With Vázquez parting ways with the organization this offseason, team decision-makers elected to bring in a new veteran backstop to team with Jeffers. Expected to earn roughly $1.8 million in arbitration this offseason, Jackson is a much more cost-effective option than Vázquez, who was earning $10 million annually. At this stage of their respective careers, Jackson is a defensive upgrade from Vàzquez. He has more pop in his bat, though the utility of that power is limited by a catastrophic 40.7% career strikeout rate. Jeffers will be a bellcow behind the plate for the first time in his career. As the sturdy backstop enters his final season of team control, the front office would be wise to lock him up. Infielders (6): Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Ryan Fitzgerald, Edouard Julien As things stand, Minnesota's primary infield configuration entering next season is clear-cut, with Clemens at first base, Keaschall at second, Lewis patrolling third, and Lee at shortstop. Team decision-makers could bring in a right-handed-hitting corner infielder like Miguel Andujar or Rhys Hoskins to pair with Clemens at first. Unless and until that happens, though, the club's primary starting infield group is set. Fitzgerald is penciled in as the backup shortstop and third baseman. Yet, the front office could elect to acquire a higher-upside option like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Jordan Lawlar, pushing Fitzgerald back to the fringes of the 40-man roster. Julien could enter the season occasionally mixing in at first base, second base, and designated hitter. Still, given his poor performance at the plate and in the field the past two seasons, that spot on the roster is written in pencil, not pen. Julien is out of minor-league options, meaning the club would risk losing him on waivers if they elect not to award him a 26-man roster spot out of spring training. That risk shouldn't stop the front office from scouring the trade market and free agency for an infielder with a higher offensive and defensive floor. Outfielders (5): Austin Martin, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Alan Roden, Trevor Larnach James Outman is a notable omission from this five-player corps. The left-handed-hitting outfielder struggled in his brief stint with Minnesota, generating an alarming 52 wRC+ and 43.3% strikeout rate over 104 plate appearances. Outman is a viable defender at all three outfield positions. Still, given his significant offensive struggles over the past two seasons, I project the 28-year-old to be the odd player out of the Twins' outfield crunch. Getting the nod over Outman, Roden could mix in at center (as Buxton's backup) and right field, while forming a platoon in left with Martin. Despite being listed as an outfielder, Larnach projects to be the club's primary designated hitter against right-handed starting pitching. The left-handed-hitting veteran could be moved this offseason. Strangely, though, Minnesota appeared to hitch its wagon to Larnach for at least one more season after tendering him a 2026 contract, which (despite popular sentiment) is a sound decision. The 28-year-old has been an above-average hitter (111 wRC+ over 967 plate appearances) the past two seasons. Wallner will enter the season as the club's primary right fielder, hoping to regain his well-above-average 2023 and 2024 form at the plate. The husky Minnesotan could also mix in at designated hitter with Larnach. Despite recent trade rumors, Buxton is expected to remain the Twins' center fielder, playing an integral role in their ability to (eventually) return to the postseason. Starting Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley Trade speculation will continue to swirl around López and Ryan all winter. The two will form one of the AL's best frontline duos as long as they remain with the organization. Ober is penciled in as Minnesota's third starter, hoping to rebound from his second-least effective season as a major-league starting pitcher. This trio could give Minnesota one of baseball's best rotations in 2026. Yet, questions surrounding roster status (López and Ryan) and effectiveness (Ober) raise significant questions about whether that outcome will become a reality next season. Woods Richardson impressed late last season, posting a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and a 38-to-11 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 2/3 innings after the trade deadline. The 25-year-old has become a fixture in Minnesota's starting rotation, earning the fourth spot entering next season while potentially developing into one of the club's frontline arms if López or Ryan are traded. If Bradley wins the fifth and final spot in the club's rotation, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Mick Abel will likely enter 2026 as the club's primary Triple-A starting pitching depth options, alongside Andrew Morris and Kendry Rojas. Bradley could still blossom into a frontline major-league arm, but he'll need to refine his secondary pitches to reach that potential. Bullpen (8): Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, Justin Topa, Eric Orze, Connor Prielipp, Pierson Ohl, Marco Raya, John Klein Those who follow the Twins won't like hearing this, but the eight pitchers who form the club's 2026 Opening Day bullpen might already be in the organization. Sands, Funderburk, Topa, and Orze are all but guaranteed spots entering next season. This quartet will likely earn most of the early-season high-leverage situations, with Sands being the primary closer. They should be closers by committee, with all four earning save opportunities. The final four bullpen spots could be a smorgasbord of young, inexperienced arms. Derek Falvey named Prielipp and Raya as candidates to enter 2026 in the club's bullpen. Ohl and his near-elite changeup impressed in short relief opportunities last season, giving him an inside track to an Opening Day relief role. The one surprise in this collective is Klein earning the final spot over Travis Adams, but given Adams's significant struggles in the majors last season and Klein's superior stuff, Klein should have the inside track. View the full article

There are a couple of certainties when it comes to how the San Diego Padres might set out toward building their 2026 roster this winter. The first is a focus on pitching. This is a team losing Dylan Cease and Michael King to free agency. On the same note, Yu Darvish will miss all of next year. The rotation is in a bad way. Even if they're able to backfill some spots from the bullpen, they would then need to shore up the depth in relief. Regardless of how any actual addition transpires, the most notable ones will likely be on the mound. The second is that the team is likely going to fill their bench spots in a similar fashion to last year. The Padres went with the volume approach on fringe guys in 2025. Jason Heyward, Jose Iglesias, Tyler Wade, and Gavin Sheets (among others) were all brought in on minor-league deals. Only Iglesias and Sheets stuck around throughout the season, and only Sheets has a longer-term outlook with the organization. Having already signed Pablo Reyes to a minor-league pact, we should expect to see plenty more of that type of contract making their way to Peoria, Arizona next spring for a shot at the roster. But given how things transpired for the Padres in 2025, it's clear they can't rely solely on minor-league deals to fill out depth spots. When you lose games to injury — as the Padres did with Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Ramón Laureano all missing notable time — and need to ensure breaks for the likes of Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis Jr. in the field, the likes of a Heyward or an Iglesias scattered throughout the bench are simply not enough to get the job done. Which is why Willi Castro represents the ideal candidate for the San Diego Padres to pursue this winter. A former Detroit Tiger, Minnesota Twin, and Chicago Cub, Castro hits free agency coming off a tough stretch following a deadline deal that landed him on the North Side of Chicago. Castro hit just .170 and reached base at a paltry .245 clip following the trade, relying primarily on his approach (16.0 percent walk rate in September) to drum up any semblance of value at the plate. He was worth -0.5 bWAR in 110 plate appearances with the Cubs. It's hard to put much stock in a player's post-deadline performance when said player changes his home stadium. Which is why Castro's career line — .244/.313/.384 with a wRC+ of 95 — represents something much more important. Even more notable is the fact that in his last two full seasons in Minnesota, he was an above-average hitter (107 wRC+) who added value on the bases (47 steals between 2023 & 2024). So, while his power has been uneven in his career, there's a steadiness to his bat and baserunning that the Padres lacked entirely in their reserves in 2025. Of course, the most important component that Castro brings is in his versatility. While not particularly elite at any position, he continues to log time all over the field in 2025. For Minnesota and Chicago last season, he totaled 264.2 innings at second base, 129 innings at third base, 26 innings at shortstop, 261.2 innings in left field, 35 innings in center field, and 256 innings in right field. His history prior to '25 includes a much longer run at short and in center, too. That level of versatility verges on being considered an everyday player rather than a true bench type. As such, Castro stands to receive a decent contract this winter, even if on a shorter term than some of his peers. At present, the Padres are without any sort of positional depth both on their roster and in the upper levels of the minors. Their 40-man roster includes Mason McCoy and Will Wagner on the infield, and Bryce Johnson and Tiros Ornelas in the outfield. None of those players offers the level of coverage that Castro can provide from a positional standpoint. McCoy and Wagner are each limited to the dirt while Johnson and Ornelas are stuck on the grass, all with shortcomings on the offensive side. Castro not only offers that coverage in a way that is extremely efficient for this roster but possesses a higher (read: any) upside at the plate. MLB Trade Rumors projects a two-year, $15 million deal for Castro. Even operating on a tight budget, that's not only something the Padres can afford, but something they should be entirely willing to pursue. The benefit of a player like Castro is that you can roster him and then scatter those six-figure minor-league pacts throughout the roster in a way that allows you to follow a singular skill set without trying to catch some kind of magic in the cheapest way possible. On that term and at that price point, Willi Castro isn't only a desirable entity for this roster, but an essential one. View the full article

Too often, the evaluation of a baseball prospect fluctuates dramatically based on their most recent season. Fish On First is occasionally guilty of this, with Miami Marlins first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos being a prime example. At this time a year ago, De Los Santos ranked third on the FOF Top 30 as Minor League Baseball's reigning home run king. Currently, fresh off a disappointing season at Triple-A, he is ranked 23rd. That's in large part because his surface-level production cratered, from 40 homers and a 127 wRC+ in 2024 to 12 homers and an 84 wRC+ in 2025. But under the hood, nothing about De Los Santos' player profile fundamentally changed. He possesses plus-plus power—in both seasons, his 90th-percentile exit velocity was 108 mph (for reference, Agustín Ramírez is at 109 mph). His chase rate against Triple-A pitching actually improved from 45.0% to 35.0%, though that is still a concerningly high figure. It's been obvious throughout this period that first base will be his long-term defensive home. Despite shattering his previous career-high with 16 stolen bases in 2025, he remains a below-average runner by MLB standards. De Los Santos did not do enough to earn a call-up from the Marlins last season. He also did not disqualify himself as a potential reinforcement further down the road. He's only 22 years old! Between a quad injury and travel issues, De Los Santos had fewer MiLB reps than hoped (106 games in AAA). He is compensating for that now in the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM), where he's been starring for Gigantes del Cibao. De Los Santos enters Monday ranked fourth among all qualified LIDOM hitters in both batting average (.351) and OPS (.892). He is in the midst of a 16-game on-base streak. Every single pitcher he's faced is older than him and more than half of his plate appearances have come against guys who have MLB experience. It has been a mixed bag for De Los Santos from a plate discipline standpoint. He has drawn only three walks through a full month of action and he occasionally gives away strikes at times by blindly guessing in favorable counts and swinging over the top of breaking balls. On the other hand, it's encouraging to see him dial back his aggressiveness, offering at 30% of first pitches (roughly MLB average). With few exceptions, the arms who have elite stuff and command are resting at this time of year. There's only so much that De Los Santos can "prove" about himself against this quality of competition. The correlation between LIDOM run production and big league readiness is practically non-existent, as detailed in the table below. OPS Rank 2020-21 LIDOM Season 2021-22 LIDOM Season 2022-23 LIDOM Season 2023-24 LIDOM Season 2024-25 LIDOM Season 1 Ronald Guzmán Junior Lake Henry Urrutia Ronny Simón J.C. Escarra 2 Joe Dunand Leody Taveras Ronny Mauricio Franmil Reyes Aderlin Rodríguez 3 Yamaico Navarro Hanser Alberto Aneury Tavárez Mel Rojas Jr. Jerar Encarnación 4 Junior Lake Sócrates Brito Ramón Hernández Héctor Rodríguez Sergio Alcántara 5 Jeremy Peña Zoilo Almonte Rainer Nuñez Starlin Castro Erick Mejía Total MLB fWAR in 2021 Total MLB fWAR in 2022 Total MLB fWAR in 2023 Total MLB fWAR in 2024 Total MLB fWAR in 2025 -0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.5 The Marlins are exploring opportunities to acquire a veteran first baseman, but they don't feel obligated to do so if the value isn't reasonable. FOF's Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral report that they could patch things together with a combination of internal options such as Eric Wagaman, Connor Norby, Graham Pauley and Liam Hicks. Even if De Los Santos homered on a daily basis for the rest of the LIDOM season, the Marlins would still plan on sending him back down to Jacksonville to validate that he has turned a corner. I have been pounding the drum as much as anybody for the Marlins to invest in their roster and first base was a glaring weakness for the Fish last year. That being said, they should be setting the bar very high and/or prioritizing first basemen with the flexibility to play additional positions. De Los Santos is a fascinating depth piece for 2026 who shouldn't be ignored. If the Marlins have to block his path to the majors because they've added one of MLB's best bats via trade or free agency, that'd be wonderful, but don't spend money for the sake of spending money and bury him on the depth chart behind a low-probability bounce-back candidate. View the full article

The Twins certainly have enough pitchers on the 40-man to fill a bullpen (Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, Mick Abel, Kendry Rojas, David Festa, Taj Bradley, et al), but which of the young minor league starters, or those in the majors, look to be moving to the bullpen full-time in 2026 to shore up the lack of relievers they currently have? View the full article

When the Chicago Cubs acquired Michael Busch ahead of the 2024 season, it was clear where the upside existed. He was a bat-first prospect without a true defensive home and, as a result, without a pathway to playing time with his former team in Los Angeles. Typically with a prospect that fits that profile, you worry about the athleticism aspect and whether there's a glove to play at all, let alone where to play it. In Busch's case, though, he had the athleticism; the Dodgers had deployed him primarily at second and third base as an upper-level prospect in their minor-league ranks. The Cubs, however, made the almost-immediate decision to entrench him at first base, a position where the team lacked a long-term solution. The immediate returns were promising, too. Over the course of that first season, Busch demonstrated improvement on both sides of the ball. He finished above average by wRC+ in each individual month (save one), progressively cut down on his strikeout rate throughout the season, and ended the year with his highest isolated power figure in an individual month (.243). Defensively, he landed on the positive side of the Outs Above Average threshold, finishing with 2 OAA. Even with such steady improvement throughout his rookie campaign, the needed areas of improvement were clear. The ideal progression would've included a continued decrease in what landed as a 28.6 percent strikeout rate, more consistency on the power side (.192 ISO for the full year), and further (and sustainable) development on the defensive side. There were intricacies therein, but those represented the simple version of the pathway toward improvement for Busch ahead of '25. Busch's percentile distribution from this season alone is indicative of him meeting the moment: Above all, Busch was able to drive his power numbers way up via his quality of contact. The fact that he ended the year with a .261 ISO is indicative of a hard-hit rate that graduated from 39.9 percent in 2024 to 47.3 percent in 2025. That output came against fastballs and off-speed pitches, each of which represented his two highest swing rates among the three pitch groups (breaking balls being the other). They sat neck-and-neck, with fastballs accounting for a 48.2 percent swing rate and off-speed at a 48.3 percent mark. While there were still some swing-and-miss issues, the approach was illustrative of a good process on Busch's part. Good process begets hard contact which, in turn, begets impact output. Hence, the near-70-point ISO jump year over year. Busch didn't demonstrate quite the same growth defensively, however, as his OAA dropped to -2. Of course, first base is a difficult position to judge on metrics alone. It is worth noting, though, that his work to his right dropped from 1 OAA in '24 to -4 OAA in '25. It's a strange development considering the defensive wizardry occurring to his right in the form of Nico Hoerner. Nevertheless, the metrics are indicative of a step back with the glove. Which, at least, offers continued clarity in what shape Busch's next phase of development could take. There's a need for continued improvement in the contact game. The quality of contact and chase rates are each, in their own way, indicative of a player with a keen awareness of the zone. Approach isn't the concern. Instead, Busch needs to demonstrate continued improvement in the swing-and-miss element of his game, particularly on off-speed pitches. Given the high volume of swings against that pitch type, the fact that Busch is whiffing at off-speed 37.9 percent of the time (easily his highest against any of the three primary pitch groups) represents a clear developmental target. The outcomes with contact are positive. He simply needs to make more of it. That lands in conjunction with additional consistency on the defensive end. Again, it's hard to judge first base on the merits of analytics alone. But given Busch's decline that unfolded specifically in moving to his right, there's some work to be done. Doing so as a right-handed fielder at this particular position isn't easy (and that fact is likely some of what pinned down his OAA last year), but when you're working with a second baseman who thrives to his left (4 OAA for Hoerner in that direction), the statistical outcomes should look at least a little bit better in a larger, multi-year sample. It almost feels somewhat "nit-picky" given the massive strides that Michael Busch made between 2024 and 2025 to suggest he needs to find another gear. He finished this past year as an upper-tier power bat with a refined approach. Now in possession of a clear skill set and a defensive home, it's a matter of more specific improvement. Development isn't linear, but the fine-tuning stage should yield only a better player, not one in need of a total profile overhaul. View the full article

Compared to hitters, pitchers generally have more to prove at the big league level before being considered for contract extensions. In fact, there's never been a pre-debut deal for an arm. But Thomas White isn’t just another arm. Will the Marlins set a new precedent and get their star-studded lefty on paper at the tender age of 21? Here are some reasons why they should be attempting to sign him ASAP. White was drafted by the Marlins in 2023 in the competitive balance round already ahead of the curve. Regarded as the 24th-ranked prospect in that year’s MLB Draft, he came supplied with a plus fastball in the mid 90s, a curveball with spin rates in the 2700 rpm range and the blueprint for a late-fading changeup. He also enticed the Marlins with his intangibles, including great grades, a commitment to a top-tier collegiate program at Vanderbilt, and supreme maturity. What prevented White from being selected closer to the head of his class was uncertainty surrounding his future ability to fully iron out nascent control and repeatability while growing into a long 6’5” frame. 6he284.mp4 During his first full pro season, White had a 120/38 K/BB ratio in 96 frames across both single-A levels. The 19-year-old got called strikes at a 16% clip, attributing to a 30 CSW%, though he only threw first-pitch strikes at a 53% rate. This past season, the already-impressive prospect became a potential superstar. White came in to minor league spring training 30 pounds heavier than he was at the time of his draft selection. He showed what he could do with the extra muscle mass in one of his first side sessions. White was touching 97 while throwing at 80% effort when one of his coaches uttered, “Let it go.” White lit up the radar at over 100 mph. He morphed his breaking ball into a wipeout slider to generate more whiffs. Finally, his changeup also became firmer. This combination of higher velo and better stuff all while holding onto solid control made White even more unhittable. He had an amazing 2025 season, earning Double-A Pensacola MVP honors and ending at Triple-A contributing to the Jumbo Shrimp’s playoff run. With size, stuff, control, and maturity beyond his years, White is the prize of a rebuilt Marlins farm system and one of the best prospects Minor League Baseball has to offer. He's on the precipice of a potential major league debut this coming season. If White comes to the majors and dominates, he will quickly exceed his small-market team’s price range. Offering him an extension now may be Miami's only chance to push back his free agency. Signing White would reinforce the Marlins’ commitment to breeding in-house talent, rewarding success, and keeping young players in Miami. It would stifle the stigma that the club mortgages assets once they reach a certain service-time threshold. An extension would give Miami a rotational anchor from the left side, which they lacked throughout the last two losing seasons. Negotiating with Scott Boras is always a chore—he is notorious for getting his clients top dollar as dictated by the open market. In this case, perhaps he would be intrigued by the opportunity to venture into uncharted territory and secure generational wealth for White when he's only a few months above the legal drinking age. A good starting point for a potential White deal would be Hunter Greene. Shortly after embarking on his second season at the MLB level in 2023, he inked a six-year deal (including a club option) worth $53 million guaranteed and $95 million if all performance incentives are met. A key consideration for the Marlins would be securing a second club option, stretching their control of White through 2033. It's been a busy year at the bargaining table for the Marlins, discussing extensions with Kyle Stowers and most recently Eury Pérez, but to no avail. Although those ascending stars are important future building blocks themselves, they need to prioritize White. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals need help in the outfield if they want to return to the postseason in 2026. According to Fangraphs, the Royals outfield ranked last in wRC+ (73) and fWAR (-1.1). The trade deadline acquisition of Mike Yastrzemski helped boost them in the last two months of play, as the former San Francisco Giant helped them rank eighth in fWAR (8.7) and 11th in wRC+ (107). However, Yastrzemski is a free agent, and it seems likely that many teams will compete to sign him this offseason, which could boost his price for 2026 and beyond. The Royals desperately need someone who can provide pop in the lineup, as well as hold his own defensively at either corner outfield position. According to Roster Resource, John Rave and Jac Caglianone are projected to be the 2026 Opening Day left and right fielders, respectively. While both could see some improvement in 2026 after inconsistent 2025 rookie campaigns, it will be difficult for Kansas City to return to the postseason if those two are regular outfielders. An option for the Royals that wouldn't require a trade is Adolis Garcia, formerly of the Texas Rangers. In a cost-cutting move, Texas non-tendered the former ALCS MVP and two-time All-Star at the non-tender deadline. Garcia is far from a perfect option for the Royals in 2026. After an All-Star campaign in 2023 in which he hit 39 home runs, posted a 128 wRC+, and accumulated a 4.9 fWAR, the 32-year-old outfielder has accumulated a 0.6 fWAR over the past two seasons combined. He also saw his home run total drop from 25 in 2024 to 19 in 2025 and his wRC+ go from 94 in 2024 to 83 in 2025. Thus, it makes sense that the Rangers would non-tender him, especially with him entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and looking to command a figure in the $12.5 million range, according to Spotrac. Acquiring Garcia wouldn't be a cheap option for this Royals front office. In addition, there's no guarantee he would be a long-term one, as he could leave in free agency after 2026 if Kansas City doesn't offer him a long-term deal. However, for a team starving for pop and offense from the outfield, the Cuban-born outfielder and former Cardinals prospect checks a lot of boxes for the Royals next season. Garcia Still Presents A Solid Batted-Ball Profile It was definitely a down season for Garcia across the board in most of his surface-level numbers, which could make Royals fans hesitant about acquiring him. In 547 plate appearances, he slashed .227/.271/.394 with a .665 OPS. In addition to only hitting 19 home runs (six fewer than his total in 2024), he also posted a .286 wOBA and .168 ISO. All those marks were career-worst numbers for Garcia in a full season (he only played in 24 games combined in 2019 and 2020 with the Cardinals and Rangers, respectively). However, his Statcast metrics paint a slightly different story. While the results weren't there, Garcia still hit the ball hard in 2025, posting positive metrics in exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rate categories, according to TJ Stats. Garcia ranked in the 90th percentile in average EV, 75th percentile in barrel% and Hard-Hit%, 74th percentile in Max EV, and 63rd percentile in 90th EV. Those are batted-ball metrics that are sustainable, even in a more cavernous home ballpark like Kauffman Stadium. In fact, it seemed like that dropoff for Garcia wouldn't be too bad in the move to Kansas City, as illustrated in his 2025 spray chart, adjusted to Kauffman Stadium dimensions. Now, there are some concerning trends in his Statcast summary profile, especially regarding plate discipline. His O-Swing% (chase) ranked in the 10th percentile, his Z-Contact% ranked in the 9th percentile, his walk rate ranked in the 11th percentile, his whiff rate ranked in the 15th percentile, and his strikeout rate ranked in the 28th percentile. Thus, he sported a free-swinging approach, which contributed to overall struggles in his last season in Texas. It is interesting, though, to see how those plate discipline percentiles fared in 2024, which was a slightly better season for Garcia (25 home runs; 94 wRC+). Let's take a look below, via TJ Stats. The plate discipline metrics were actually slightly worse overall, with whiff and Z-Contact rates even lower than his 2025 marks. Conversely, his exit velocity and batted-ball percentile rankings were better, which explains why he saw more power production in 2024 despite hitting for a lower batting average (.224). Thus, Garcia is who he is as a hitter, which is a power hitter with swing-and-miss issues. Now, as a centerpiece of a team's offense, which he was seen to be in Texas? That's obviously not going to work. However, as a complementary middle-of-the-order bat? Garcia's offensive profile may be more tolerable for GM JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro. How Does Garcia Compare to Other Royals Outfielders Last Season? When evaluating Garcia compared to other Royals outfielders from last season, it seemed logical to focus on four primary metrics: average EV, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xwOBA. Those are metrics that can indicate a hitter's power skills, as well as give a better idea of their outlook for the upcoming season offensively. Here's a table with those metrics, organized by xwOBA, including all Royals corner outfielders with at least 50 plate appearances, as well as Garcia. For Yastrzemski, Randal Grichuk, and Adam Frazier, I included their full-season numbers, not just their Royals-specific metrics. When looking at xwOBA, Grichuk and Yastrzemski led the Royals' corner outfielders in that category, both with .327 marks. Caglianone finished third with a .318 mark. In fourth? That would be Garcia with a .304 mark, just three points ahead of Rave. In other categories on the table, Garcia was more impressive. He was second in average EV and hard-hit rate and third in barrel rate. Thus, from a power perspective, the former Rangers outfielder offers more insurance, especially since he had four-straight seasons of 25+ home runs from 2021 to 2024. Another interesting aspect of Garcia's profile is that he was solid defensively in 2025, especially compared to other Royals corner outfielders. As seen in the table below, he outperformed many Royals outfielders defensively last season, especially in the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) category. Garcia's 16 DRS was 11 runs better than Yasstrzemski, the Royals' second-best defensive outfielder in that category a season ago. The former Ranger lagged behind Rave in Outs Above Average (OAA) and Fielding Run Value (FRV), as Rave led the Royals with three in each category. That said, he still finished ahead of all other Royals in OAA and FRV beyond Rave. Thus, the Royals would not just be getting a player with some power upside, but also one who would be a clear defensive upgrade over other options the Royals trotted out in the corner outfield spots a season ago. What's the Challenge With Signing Garcia? The issue with acquiring Garcia is that he won't come to Kansas City easily or cheaply. After the move, many other team sites theorized on social media about how Garcia would fit their rosters for the upcoming season. Thus, like Yastrzemski, the Royals may need to overpay to get a player of Garcia's caliber for 2026. However, at 32 years old, is Garcia worth such a firm financial commitment, even if he wouldn't cost the Royals any prospect capital? That is a tricky question to answer for now. It does seem like the Royals value their prospects more than before, especially as they're rebuilding the Minor League talent pool under scouting director Brian Bridges, who took over after the 2023 MLB Draft. And yet, it seems like Picollo isn't averse to trading from an area of strength, as illustrated by the recent Cole Ragans rumors that emerged over the weekend. Furthermore, the Royals do not want to sign a free agent, only to see them fall flat in their move to Kansas City. That was the case with Hunter Renfroe, who was seen as an "affordable" upgrade that didn't cost them any prospect capital, but ended up posting a -0.8 fWAR in 155 games with the Royals. The Royals can't "swing-and-miss" with their outfield upgrade like Renfroe or even Jonathan India last season, who failed to gain traction as a utility player in Kansas City. For the Royals to get back to the playoffs, they need to find someone who will give the production they desperately need in the outfield while not being a complete drain defensively, especially with Caglianone still working on things in the outfield (as Cags would most likely be the third outfielder). Is Garcia the answer? He checks a lot of boxes. That said, he'll be 33 next year, doesn't have much team control, and could cost a lot to acquire. Are those risks Picollo is willing to take? I guess Royals fans will have to wait and see. View the full article

A spring training oblique strain and a handful of underwhelming starts limited Tobias Myers's opportunities in the Brewers' starting rotation in 2025. In those starts, Myers wasn't mixing speeds much, eschewing what had been an effective changeup the year before. Rediscovering a proper offspeed offering became one of his focuses with Triple-A Nashville, and he ultimately landed on a split-change. It was a small tweak, but its impact could ripple into next season. The splitter significantly altered Myers's identity as a pitcher, and it could be his ticket to more innings in 2026. After settling on that new pitch, Myers said he expected to throw it plenty. It immediately became a weapon against hitters from either side of the plate, holding opponents to a .131 wOBA while inducing whiffs on 39.2% of swings. Myers not only made it his preferred weapon against left-handed hitters, but even used it at roughly the same rate as his cutter and slider against righties. Those shifts in usage prompted different sequencing. Myers hit his stride as a rookie once he and the Brewers established his fastball-cutter-slider triad, particularly against right-handed batters. That meant tunneling pitches to start right down the middle, with the heater staying true over the plate and the secondaries breaking low and to the glove side. Myers needed more tricks in his bag against lefties, including more elevated fastballs and cutters, but the back-foot slider was still a significant part of his approach down the stretch. By August, Myers's focus shifted to setting up a splitter that emphasized depth, tailing in the opposite direction of his slider and cutter. That meant working more on the north-south game, shifting his fastball usage further up and in to righties. Going to a mostly fastball-splitter pairing against lefties (nearly 80% of his pitches in such matchups after he debuted the latter on July 23) led Myers to zero in on the bottom of the zone with both offerings. Those new plans of attack made him a more well-rounded pitcher. In 2024, righties managed just a .275 wOBA against Myers, but lefties posted a more capable .320 mark. After he debuted the splitter in the big leagues on Jul. 23, 2025, lefties floundered to a .229 wOBA, compared to .278 for righties. His strikeout rate remained below-average at 18.5%, but he generated whiffs on 25.4% of swings, a higher rate than in his successful rookie campaign. It wasn't all sunshine and roses, as righties did more damage against Myers's fastball in that time, particularly in the inner third of the zone. That may necessitate returning to his former sequences in some of those matchups, even if it means limiting his usage of a highly successful splitter. Even if his 2025 season did not transpire as he may have preferred, Myers took advantage of the opportunity it afforded him to mature as a pitcher. He arguably profiles better as a starter now than he did a year ago, though it may be tough for him to crack a deep Milwaukee rotation—particularly if the club retains Freddy Peralta. In any case, Myers's contributions next season might be closer to his rookie year than his sophomore campaign. The split-change is a difference-maker for the late-blooming righty. View the full article

The Twins will be spending some significant money this winter to improve their offense—even if that spending comes in the form of hours tallied by front-office personnel or technological upgrades, rather than new hitters on high-paying free-agent contracts. That was, perhaps, the most intriguing takeaway from the press conference at which the team introduced new hitting coach Keith Beauregard (and bench coach Mark Hallberg) last month. "We’re gonna build a markerless system that shows what a guy’s swing is, and when it’s good what it looks like and when it’s off, ‘Here’s what we’re seeing,'" Beauregard said via Zoom on November 17. "And it should get us to solutions as quickly as possible, and make meaningful tweaks as quickly as possible, as well." Nestled in that enthusiastic statement of intent was a somewhat startling admission: the Twins don't already have such a system in place. Sources within front offices elsewhere in the league estimate that between 15 and 25 of the other 29 teams do already have proprietary means by which they provide biomechanical feedback to players on their swings within games—that is, without needing to attach markers and study the player's movements in a laboratory setting. This is one of the little-discussed shortfalls that has crept up on the team over the last few years. Throughout Derek Falvey's tenure as the head of baseball operations, good analysts, developers, scouts, executives, coaches and instructors have flowed through Minnesota. They've generally been well-regarded by other teams for their acquisition and development of good staffers. That's why they've lost a lot of them to other teams over the last several seasons. When it comes to technology (and the implementation thereof in player development and coaching), however, they haven't invested enough to stay ahead of the curve. In fact, they're a bit behind it. Diminished spending throughout the organization has had effects reaching beyond the 40-man roster and the nominal payroll. Most of the team's pro scouts were let go earlier this year, and sources familiar with the internal workings of the team say a budget crunch has encroached upon the efforts of the front office since 2023. That's the bad news. The good news is that forward strides like the one Beauregard described cost very little. It won't eat up much of the budget for research, development and implementation to add a markerless motion-capture system to their arsenal of tools. The data needed to do that kind of work is already abundantly available to the Twins, via Statcast. Visualizations that animate and illustrate a hitter's swing in three dimensions already exist, and are available to the public via Baseball Savant. Here's the one for Trevor Larnach, for 2025. Larn Dog.mp4 However, these animations are composites. They show the average of all the swings a hitter took during the year in question. The application Beauregard described, which the Twins will have at their disposal in 2026, is more nuanced. It will allow them to study individual swings on demand (another capability they technically already had, but which they didn't use extensively in 2025, according to a source), and even more importantly, it will allow them to bin and tailor swings to study them in clusters. What does a hitter's swing look like on fastballs down in the zone? What about when the pitch is belt-high and on the inner edge? How are they adjusting to breaking balls, in terms of both their bat path and the transfer of weight in their lower half? These are questions all hitting coaches would agree are important, but there are different ways to attempt to answer them. With improved technological tools at their disposal, Beauregard and assistant hitting coaches Rayden Sierra and Trevor Amicone will try to give their charges more objective, concrete answers in 2026. For multiple reasons, communication about swings and hitting trouble has been a major weakness for the team over the last two years. David Popkins was fired after 2024 because the front office believed he was unable to adequately convey the team's philosophy to the players under his tutelage. He proved that theory wrong in 2025, as he helmed one of baseball's best offenses and led the Blue Jays to within inches of a World Series title. Although signed to a multi-year deal to replace Popkins, Matt Borgschulte was fired after just one season in his stead. The team's persistent inability to translate apparent talent into consistent production prompted that move. Larnach is a perfect example. The fault might well lie in him, rather than his instructors, but neither Popkins nor Borgschulte succeeded in getting the young slugger to better understand his own swing. He made major changes from 2024 to 2025, but wasn't even aware of them—or able to articulate the reasons for them. "There's been no intentional changes to the swing this year," Larnach said in August. "Everything I'm trying to do is the same as last year, and if anything's different, it's just my adjustment to the pitch and to what I'm seeing." That might have been true, as far as it went, but it betrayed an insufficient self-knowledge, which can be blamed partially on a lack of irrefutable feedback. Beauregard's markerless capture system will force Larnach to reckon more with the realities of his swing, which might be part of why the team felt optimistic enough to retain him at the non-tender deadline in mid-November. Slushy swing talk was a virus that spread throughout Minnesota's clubhouse in 2025. Carlos Correa (who came to the team from the Astros, and thus has had his swing captured and dissected in quantitative fashion for a decade), Ryan Jeffers, and late-season reinforcements Ryan Fitzgerald and James Outman could be counted on to accurately describe their own swings, but Larnach, Matt Wallner and others frequently demonstrated a mistaken or incomplete comprehension of themselves in motion. That can reflect a player's attitude or inclination, as much as a team's tendency, but the Twins' lack of cutting-edge tools certainly made it more possible to come to work every day and be underprepared for the hard work of hitting big-league pitching. In 2026, Larnach, Wallner, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall will have the benefit of that hard data, be it in numerical or visual form. Beauregard is ready to find the best way to communicate with each individual, but one way or another, the goal is to get them the actionable information they weren't receiving (at least in actionable form) until now. "I think it goes back to meeting guys where they’re at, and figuring out how to speak their language," Beauregard said. "When you learn to speak their language, you build (basically) a base model of what type of swing works for them. And with some of these biomechanical markers, and some of the things you just alluded to, it allows us to get to resolutions a little bit quicker, so when they’re outside of those markers, we can catch flags." The 2026 Twins will have to do more with less, at the plate. Hiring Beauregard was part of the plan to do so, but supporting him with better technology and advanced tools the team should have had already will be important, too. View the full article

Just before Thanksgiving, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported that some members of the Boston Red Sox front office believe veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is none too dissimilar from Minnesota Twins All-Star Joe Ryan. This, of course, created another avenue for Red Sox fans to argue about what was a very polarizing trade. Gray, who turned 36 on Nov. 7, is two seasons removed from finishing second in American League Cy Young voting, but most recently put up a 4.28 ERA in 2025. With the dialogue surrounding the team's need to acquire a "legitimate No. 2 starter," fans seem to feel underwhelmed by Gray. Let's address the belief brought to light by Bradford: the Red Sox front office believe Gray and Ryan are very similar pitchers. At the outset, it seems foolish. After all, this is the same Ryan that Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow reportedly offered an arm and a leg -- short of outfielders Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu -- for at this past summer's trade deadline. Even if St. Louis didn't require a package headlined by shortstop Franklin Arias (No. 3 on Talk Sox) or outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2), wouldn't the acquisition cost of Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke signify the talent gap between the two? Not necessarily. Being seven years older and owed a lot more financially, that alone lowers the cost for Gray. Even if they're the exact same pitcher, there are a ton of variables at large when a trade comes to fruition. But let's look at these two side-by-side and re-assess how Boston did in the Sonny Gray trade. Whiffs and Chase Last season was something of an outlier for Ryan in the chase department. Historically, he's never been exceptional at missing bats, constantly hovering around the high-50s in his percentile, but inducing solid amounts of chase helped him rack up the punchouts. In 2025, his chase rate fell to the 14th percentile. As a result, despite holding opponents to a .203 average on his sweeper, he only had a put-away rate of 18.8% on the pitch. He maintained a 34% whiff rate on it, but finishing hitters off became a problem. As for Gray, he stayed well above average at both. In 2025, he had a chase rate of 31.2%, which put him in the 81st percentile. His whiff rate ranked in the 68th percentile. His sweeper was even better than Ryan's, holding opponents to a .151 average while generating 42.4% whiff and 28.2% put-away rates. This isn't a long-lasting part of Gray's pitching track record, but it explains why he's able to maintain elite strikeout stuff despite an unspectacular fastball. Fastball If anyone is arguing Gray's heater can hold a candle to Ryan's, they're lying. The Twins right-hander had a 93rd-percentile fastball in 2025 in terms of run value, holding opponents to a .204 batting average with a 26.9% whiff rate on his four-seam. In fact, only Nick Pivetta registered more strikeouts on four-seam fastballs than Ryan in 2025, who had 108 and tied with San Francisco Giants left-hander Robbie Ray. Gray's four-seam got killed in 2025, as opponents slugged .594 against it. It's not an outlier season either, as opponents slugged .567 against it in 2024. It's simply not an effective offering anymore for the 36-year-old veteran, who reduced his usage rate to 21.7% in 2025. He's much more spin-dominant than he once was, and that's more than acceptable with an increased use of his sinker and cutter to generate ground balls and weak contact. But, in a vacuum, Ryan made more sense given the trends established by Red Sox brass last season. Overall, here's how their 2025 seasons looked: Gray: 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 3.07 xFIP, 21.6% K-BB, 3.6 fWAR, 180.2 IP, 66th percentile pitching run value Ryan: 3.42 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB, 3.4 fWAR, 171.0 IP, 71st percentile pitching run value ERA aside, hard to see much difference between the two arms, no? Thus begs the question: If you're willing to trade Duran and/or Abreu for Ryan, why are you upset about trading Fitts and Clarke for Gray? Which brings me to my next point: Acquisition Cost Part of why the Gray trade made so much sense this early in the offseason is the options it continues to give the Red Sox on the trade market. While fans think very highly of the team's farm system, that doesn't mean other organizations necessarily agree. Even if, say, the New York Yankees viewed the Red Sox as having the No. 2 farm system in the league, that doesn't mean the Twins do. It's magnified to the grandest degree when we're talking about MLB decision-makers, but it's none too dissimilar to how we as consumers talk about farm systems on social media. That said, age and contracts play a major role in determining acquisition cost. Ryan is turning 30 in 2026; Gray is 36. Therefore, Ryan is more expensive. The Red Sox likely have the ammunition for one big trade this offseason; why does that trade have to happen before any other moves are made? The team acquired Gray for Fitts and Clarke, meaning the Red Sox still have their biggest chips -- Duran and Abreu -- to address a glaring need closer to January or even February of 2026. That could be circling back to Ryan, but it also could be to add impact to the heart of the order. Plain and simple, these two arms for one year are not very far apart in terms of overall production. Gray's a bit more battle-tested, while Ryan has more long-term projectability. But when you've got to get creative to bolster a roster that has so much of its team under control already, unloading all of your assets before Thanksgiving is poor management. As is sitting on your hands waiting for Tarik Skubal or Hunter Greene to become available, similar to what Breslow did at this past deadline with Ryan. It seems he's learned his lesson. View the full article

Last week, my boss here at DiamondCentric asked me to prepare “a truly killer piece” for the Monday after American Thanksgiving. Well, here goes. You’ve seen a lot of articles on our website about Bo Bichette lately. The general consensus? The Blue Jays need to do whatever it takes to re-sign him. Sure, we’ve considered backup plans, but they’re backup plans for a reason. Bringing Bo back is the goal. But maybe it shouldn’t be. I started writing this article just to see if I could. I wasn’t always planning to publish it. After all, I’ve been calling on the Jays to re-sign Bichette as much as anyone. I didn’t want to write this title if it was only going to be clickbait. I needed to find an argument I believed in. Before long, I’d found several. Now, I should mention that I started writing this article early last week, before the Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. My primary argument, at the time, was that signing a pitcher like Cease should be Toronto's number one priority. I'm feeling pretty good about that argument right now. Here's what I wrote: ***** Toronto’s top priority this winter absolutely needs to be pitching. The 2025 Blue Jays' offense was one of the best in the league, even subtracting Bichette’s performance. The pitching staff, on the other hand, was closer to average (if not slightly below) with a 4.19 ERA (19th) and 11.7 FanGraphs WAR (21st). To be fair, those stats are full of noise. More than a quarter of last year’s innings went to pitchers no longer in the organization, while arms like Trey Yesavage and Louis Varland should play much bigger roles in 2026. So, perhaps a better way to explain why the Blue Jays need pitching is to lay out their projected lineup and pitching staff for next season. Let’s start with the position players: Position Projected Starter C Alejandro Kirk 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2B Ernie Clement SS Andrés Giménez 3B Addison Barger RF Anthony Santander CF Daulton Varsho LF Nathan Lukes/Davis Schneider DH George Springer That’s a complete lineup. Is it a great lineup? No. Bichette’s absence leaps off the page. But there is at least an average major leaguer at every position. I can’t say the same for the starting rotation: Position Projected Pitcher SP1 Kevin Gausman SP2 Shane Bieber SP3 Trey Yesavage SP4 José Berríos SP5 Eric Lauer Kevin Gausman is a great pitcher, but for a team with World Series aspirations, he’s ideally a number two starter, not an ace. He’ll also be 35 next year. Shane Bieber has that ace upside, but he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2022, and the Bieber we saw last year looked more like a mid-rotation arm. Trey Yesavage remains something of a question mark. Could he blossom into Toronto’s ace? If last October was any indication, the answer is an emphatic yes. But that’s his ceiling, not his 50th percentile projection. As is the case with Bieber, a mid-rotation arm is the expectation here, and anything more is gravy. As for José Berríos, I think we’re looking at a back-end innings eater as the most likely outcome in 2026 – presuming his elbow is healthy enough for him to keep racking up innings. Once again, the upside for more is there, but the version of Berríos we saw last season isn’t someone you want starting a postseason game. Finally, we come to Eric Lauer, who simply cannot have a guaranteed role in Toronto’s rotation if this team is serious about returning to the World Series. It’s not that he wasn’t great last season, but he has not proven he can hold down a full-time starting job. On top of that, he’s more valuable as a swingman; the Jays should plan to use him as a multi-inning lefty in the bullpen, but he will inevitably move into the rotation at some point as injuries pop up. All that to say, the Blue Jays would benefit tremendously from adding a true ace to put at the top of their rotation, sliding everyone else down a spot. No single addition at any position would improve this team more than adding, say, Dylan Cease (Editor's Note: ding ding ding!), Tatsuya Imai, Framber Valdez, or Ranger Suárez (DiamondCentric’s top four free agent starters). If the Blue Jays want to get back to the playoffs and challenge for another title, bringing in a new number one starter should be their number one priority. ***** Well, mission accomplished! So what now? The Blue Jays should have plenty of Mr. Rogers’ money to spend after their hugely successful run to the World Series. They can still afford to re-sign Bichette after landing Cease. But I haven’t talked about the bullpen yet. This ‘pen needs help: Position Projected Pitcher CL Jeff Hoffman RP Louis Varland RP Yimi García RP Brendon Little RP Braydon Fisher RP Yariel Rodríguez RP Mason Fluharty RP Tommy Nance After Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland, I’m varying degrees of nervous about every player in that table. And considering the only two names I feel good about are Hoffman, who gave up more homers than any other AL reliever last year, and Varland, who only has one season of experience as a full-time reliever, this is clearly a high-volatility group. It’s not that there’s nothing to like about this bullpen. Every one of those pitchers flashed great stuff at some point in 2025. The problem is that relievers are wildly unpredictable, and this group especially so. Thankfully, the Jays have options. Or, I should say, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, and Mason Fluharty have options, as does Varland. In addition, Tommy Nance is a DFA candidate. So, GM Ross Atkins has the flexibility to add several arms to this bullpen. He could (and should) go after one of the big-name free agent closers: Edwin Díaz, Devin Williams, or Robert Suarez. He could (and should) also pursue one or two more proven veterans, such as Seranthony Domínguez, Emilio Pagán, or Tyler Rogers. Bo Bichette is a more valuable player than anyone Atkins could add to the bullpen. I’d rank him above anyone they could have signed for the rotation too, be it Cease, Valdez, Imai, or Suárez. That’s why he’s the No. 2 free agent on DiamondCentric’s top 50. Yet, a starter like Cease knocking Lauer out of the rotation or, say, a closer like Díaz knocking Nance out of the bullpen would improve this team more than Bichette taking playing time away from the likes of Clement/Barger/Schneider/Lukes. It’s not just a question of who the Jays are adding; who they’re replacing matters just as much. Of course, Toronto’s front office should have the resources to prioritize improving the rotation, the bullpen, and the lineup equally. Even so, I could argue that Bichette shouldn’t be Toronto’s top target. Why? Because he’s only No. 2 on DiamondCentric’s top 50 free agents list, and the Blue Jays have the money, the clout, and the roster flexibility to set their eyes on No. 1. Kyle Tucker is the best free agent on the market. We’re projecting him to sign a 10-year, $360 million deal. That’s more than twice the guaranteed money we’re projecting for Bichette (seven years, $175 million). That massive contract projection is a reflection of Tucker’s MVP-caliber talent. As much as I love Bo, it’s hard to argue that Tucker isn’t the superior player. He won’t hit for quite as high an average, but his power, discipline, and speed are superior, as is his defense, albeit at a less valuable position. Tucker would also be a better fit for Toronto’s lineup. The Jays’ two best hitters, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, both hit right-handed. They have plenty of lefties, but no one who’s a sure thing to make a serious impact from the left-hand side. Turning to defense, adding Tucker would mean Barger and Schneider would see more of their reps in the infield, while Lukes would be relegated to a smaller role. But none of that is meaningfully different from what would be the case if the Jays signed Bichette – just replace the word “infield” with “outfield.” Ross Atkins finds himself in the best position he’s ever been in to convince ownership to spend big and convince superstar free agents to sign north of the border. He needs to capitalize. Re-signing Bo Bichette would be a great move. The Blue Jays would be far better with him than without him, and the fans would be thrilled to have him back. At the same time, re-signing Bichette isn’t the best move Atkins can make. There are other ways he can improve his team even more, and he needs to consider all of them. (Signing Cease was one such move.) So, I’m not saying no to Bo. But maybe re-signing him isn’t the absolute, ultimate, be-all end-all, must-do, no question top priority we’ve been treating it as. Maybe there’s another path. View the full article

On Sunday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 2-for-4. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 2-for-4 with a home run and he continues to lead his league with a .978 OPS. Jacob Berry went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base in his first Puerto Rican Winter League start. His Leones de Ponce teammate, Orlando Ortiz-Mayr, fared well in a no-decision (4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K). Only 115 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 This teal Marlins Starter jacket is the best item of clothing I own. Totally unprompted, friends, family and even strangers compliment me whenever I wear it in public. Through the end of tonight, you have the opportunity to get it at Homage for just $125, which is $40 less than what I paid for mine. You're welcome! Also a reminder that you can save 10% on all Fish On First merch purchases at About The Fans by using coupon code FOF10 at checkout. 🔷 Baseball executives and media will converge on Orlando, Florida, for the Winter Meetings beginning this Sunday night. Our own Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral preview the event from the Marlins' perspective. 🔷 Even with a late start to his winter ball season, Deyvison De Los Santos has been one of LIDOM's most productive hitters. I wrote about how his encouraging performance adds a wrinkle to the club's ongoing search for a first baseman. 🔷 On this day four years ago, the Marlins held a joint press conference to celebrate Sandy Alcantara's contract extension (5-YR/$56M) and Avisaíl García's free agent signing (4-YR/$53M). Needless to say, they'd like a re-do on one of those moves. 🔷 On the Baseball Wives Club, Otto Lopez's wife, Marle Vásquez, discussed how the couple met and what it's like navigating the chaotic world of professional baseball while also raising an infant (their daughter Amelia is 17 months old). 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, Ryan Helsley and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a two-year, $28 million deal. The price turned out to be a bit steeper than I projected entering this offseason, but I still think he would've been the ideal reliever addition for the Marlins when accounting for the short-term commitment and his immense potential upside. View the full article

While Red Sox nation was preparing for Thanksgiving, Craig Breslow continued to prepare for the 2026 season as he signed infielder Vinny Capra to a minor-league deal on Thursday. The signing was first reported by SoxProspects’ Brendan Campbell. Capra, who will turn 30 next July, spent the 2025 season with the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago White Sox. He would appear in 47 games for the two teams hitting a combined .125/.157/.177 with two doubles, a home run and sox RBIs. Defensively, Capra spent time at second base, shortstop and third base along with a few outfield appearances in Triple-A. While it hasn’t been announced yet, his minor league deal is likely to include a non-roster invitation to spring training. Should he make it through spring training, Capra will most likely report to Worcester where he will serve as infield depth thanks to his ability to play all over the diamond. View the full article

In case you somehow missed it, MLB is officially instituting the long-awaited Automated Ball Strike System, or ABS, in 2026. Fans have had the chance to see the technology at work for years in the minor leagues, but they’ve only seen it sparingly in big league games. It was used in select spring training games and the All-Star game, but there wasn’t enough data to really think about how it’d affect the catcher role. Because of the limited information, the consensus seems to be that the new system will disproportionately hurt catchers like Patrick Bailey, who have gotten a lot of value out of pitch framing, while allowing worse framers to make up for their mistakes with challenges. However, the truth is likely more complex. Davy Andrews, a FanGraphs writer and former Brewer Fanatic contributor, recently wrote a piece reflecting on the upcoming system, and a key takeaway was that people tend to forget that pitch framing is just as much about stealing strikes as it is about keeping strikes. He noted that the best pitch framers in the league earn strikes on ~90% of shadow zone pitches in the zone, while getting called strikes on just ~20% of pitches outside the zone. The challenge system should allow a catcher with a perfect eye to get 100% of fairly earned called strikes, which could be more valuable than the few stolen strikes taken away from batter challenges. This is especially apparent when noting that catchers tend to have much higher overturn rates than batters so far. So how does William Contreras fit into all of this? Well, he was one of the best at framing pitches in 2023, accumulating +9 Catcher Framing Runs (5th in MLB). Since then, he has gradually declined in his productivity, posting +3 framing runs in 2024 and just +1 this past year. He’s still a much better defender than he was with the Braves, but could this new system be what he needs to turn things around behind the dish? A peek at his Savant page shows that his weakest framing zone was towards the left-handed batter’s box. In this shadow zone, his strike percentage of 57.9% was considerably lower than the MLB average of 64.3% and he accumulated -3 framing runs in this zone. It’s difficult to say exactly why he struggled so much with pitches on his right-handed side, but reviewing a few clips of missed calls shows something is happening. Even when setting up his glove in the right location, he tends to instinctively pull his hand down and to his left before catching the pitch, framing it in the opposite direction and losing out on strikes. While not quite as egregious, he faces a similar issue when catching pitches on the upper rail. In each of these examples, Contreras’s reaction makes it seem like he’s still expecting a late strike call because of how confident he is that the pitch landed in the zone. Now, the strike zone on television can admittedly be misleading, but there is enough evidence to suggest that Contreras often has a hard time keeping his pitcher’s strikes in the zone where they belong. A lot of this regression is due to the noise in his setup before the pitch. If we go back and look at the pitches he received in the same zones in 2023, the overall motion is far smoother, which lends itself to stealing and confirming more strikes. However, while that is undoubtedly something for Contreras to work on in the offseason, he still clearly has a good understanding of the zone. With the robo-zone, he can compensate for framing mistakes by correcting history with a timely challenge or two without sacrificing much framing upside. To get a more definitive answer on whether this will help or hurt his defensive efforts, we’ll have to wait until MLB rolls out its challenge probability and value numbers. Even without exact facts and figures, the new ABS system still seems to give William Contreras all the tools he needs to pump up his defensive value in 2026. View the full article

Kyle Finnegan is a name that has been floated and connected with the Chicago Cubs dating back to last offseason, when he was non-tendered by the Washington Nationals. As the trade deadline approached in the summer of 2025, his name was once again floated by Patrick Mooney and Sahdev Shama of The Athletic as a name the team was interested in. Instead of ending up on the North Side of Chicago, the Nationals instead dealt him to the Detroit Tigers. Now, as the Cubs look to rebuild their bullpen this offseason, the reliever could once again fit into the team's plans. Finnegan, 34, is a bit of a late bloomer, with his first full Major League Baseball season coming when he was already 29 years old. Between 2021 and 2025, the right-hander has been a solid bullpen arm, providing 2.2 fWAR over 322 innings pitched. If there is a bit of a knock on the former Nationals closer, it is that he's always been a bit home-run prone, giving up at least nine per year, and maxing out in 2023 with 11 round-trippers surrendered. For the Cubs, this may be less of an issue than for other teams, as Wrigley Field has done a great job suppressing offense all on it's own. Between 2023 and 2025, Wrigley Field has ranked 25th in offensive run value according to Baseball Savant's park factors, as well as below league average for home runs surrendered. There will still be days where the wind is howling, but it seems that the winds have literally shifted in on this front. However, the Detroit Tigers may have done the heavy lifting for the other 29 MLB organizations already by helping Finnegan change his pitch mix. Finnegan has plenty of velocity sitting between 96 and 97mph and a plus fastball shape according to FanGraphs' Stuff+ pitch modeling, but the pitch has been hit fairly well over the last few years, finishing with wOBA's against of .299, .339, and .349 over the last three seasons, respectively. Contrast, then, the reliever's other main offering, his split-finger, a pitch that has had, over the same span, wOBA's against of .254, .271, and .184, respectively. It grades out incredibly well by Stuff+ as well, and gets tons of whiffs—nearly 35% of the time in two of those three seasons. It's a great pitch, which makes it all-the-more-baffling that while with Washington, he threw the fastball nearly 70% of the time. Finnegan was able to remain a good pitcher, but there was meat on the bone that was being tossed in the trash can. This all changed last summer after being acquired by the Detroit Tigers who, over the course of two months, flipped his pitch usage. By the end of the season, Finnegan was throwing his split-finger fastball nearly 60% of the time, up from his 30% with Washington. This transformed the right-handed hurler from a good reliever to a near-elite one. Look at the difference between his time in Washington and Detroit in 2025: Finnegan saw improvement across the board (outside of hard-hit percentage). It shouldn't be shocking that featuring his best pitch significantly more, and one designed to increase ground balls and decrease fly balls. would be all that was needed to generate a major jump in the reliever's profile, and yet, Washington couldn't figure this one out. None of this is to say I would expect him to remain a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher moving forward, but that with a heavy dose of split fingers, he's likely going to be a significantly better option that he had been with the Nationals. The best thing about him, however, is that he won't break the bank. The right-hander did not feature in the Top 50 Diamond Centric Free Agent Rankings, and with his age-34 season upcoming, likely won't require a multi-year commitment to secure his services for the 2026 campaign. Knowing how the Cubs enjoy building their bullpen and their reluctance to fly above the luxury tax limits, he would fit nicely into their structure and would likely provide a strong back-end piece with Daniel Palencia and Phil Maton already under contract. He may not be as exciting as someone like Devin Williams or Robert Suarez at first, but could emerge as the steal of the offseason if he can keep up his momentum from Detroit. What do you think of Kyle Finnegan? Would you approve of the Cubs adding him to their 2026 bullpen? Sound off in the comment section below! View the full article