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Aside from trade rumors, the Kansas City Royals have had a very quiet offseason to this point. With a variety of near replacement-level players ready to split outfield duties, the team is rumored to be interested in a trio of outfielder free agents. Jon Heyman of the NY Post is reporting that the Kansas City Royals have expressed interest in multiple outfielders, including Harrison Bader, Mike Yastrzemski, and Austin Hays. As of right now, Kyle Isbel and John Rave are penciled as the starting left and center fielders, respectively, according to FanGraphs Roster Resource. Bader, 32, enjoyed a bounce-back year in 2025, posting a .796 OPS with 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He was a positive contributor defensively, +5 Outs Above Average (OAA) across all three outfield positions. He's projected to earn $26 million over two years by MLBTR. Yastrzemski, who was traded to the Royals, also experienced a bounce-back in 2025. He posted a .736 OPS with 17 home runs and seven stolen bases, though he wasn't great in the field, posting a -3 OAA across all three outfield positions. Hays was a plus-hitter (105 wRC+), though he benefited from the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. He posted a .768 OPS with 18 home runs and seven stolen bases. Between both corner outfield positions, he posted +1 OAA and spent a fair amount of time as a designated hitter. Of the three, who would you like to see the Royals sign? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

After signing right-handed reliever Phil Maton to a two-year deal last month, the Chicago Cubs continue to talk to relievers who could round out their thin bullpen, sources say. One name on their radar, in whom they've had active interest in the past, as well: Ryne Stanek. A burly righty with the ability to top 100 miles per hour with his fastball, Stanek, 34, had an ugly 5.30 ERA in 2025, but his stuff is intact and the team believes they can fix what went wrong for him with the Mets. Because of his rocky season, Stanek should come relatively cheaply. This would be a signing in the realm of last year's pickup of Caleb Thielbar, another aging reliever whose prior-year surface-level stats had been ugly. According to a source familiar with the team's thinking, they're likely to supplement their pen with a hurler at that tier. They could aim higher—they haven't closed the door on a reunion with Brad Keller, for example. However, because they view Ben Brown as a reliever and are hoping to fill lout a starting rotation robust enough to push Colin Rea into the pen, they're unlikely to make more than one more addition to the pen in the form of guaranteed, big-league deals. Daniel Palencia, Maton, Brown and Porter Hodge are penciled into the 2026 bullpen right now. Depending on how the offseason unfolds, they could end up pushing any of Rea, Javier Assad or Jordan Wicks into relief, too. They also have fringy but intriguing (to various degrees) arms running low on minor-league options and time to prove themselves, in Luke Little, Jack Neely, Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, and 40-man roster newcomer Riley Martin. Ideally, perhaps, the team would add a lefty to complement their stash of sturdy right-handers. Little, Martin and Wicks are left-handed, but none are reliable big-leaguers. The team is interested in bringing Drew Pomeranz or Thielbar back, but only if they can be had at terms similar to the extremely inexpensive ones for which they acquired each in 2025, a source said. The team is likely to leave themselves some room to get contributions from minor-league signings and waiver claims, as they did when they ended up getting so much value from Keller and Pomeranz. A Stanek signing wouldn't excite most fans, but a cohort of Palencia, Maton and Stanek at the back end of the pen would be an interesting one—especially if, as the team certainly hopes, Brown can flourish in a bullpen role. Chicago has had interest in Stanek multiple times in the past, and this year, the price might be right. View the full article

It might seem odd to view 2026 as a make-or-break year for Aaron Ashby. In 2024 and 2025, he’s combined for a 2.37 ERA in 95 innings pitched across 57 games, with 109 strikeouts. This was after he missed most of 2023 and a fair bit of 2024, due to shoulder surgery. He'd delivered some tantalizing peripherals in 2021 and 2022, but 2025 was very much his coming-out party. It’s a great comeback story. Why would Ashby be a Brewer on the bubble? A big part of it is the contract he signed. During the 2022 season, Ashby was seen as a key cog in the Brewers' rotation plans, and he signed a team-friendly pre-arbitration extension. At spring training, he went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which ultimately needed surgery. Therefore, he missed all of that year. The next year, he was rehabbing in Triple-A Nashville on an option. Upon his return, Ashby was close to the form that made the Crew offer him the extension, albeit in shorter stints out of the bullpen. This presents Milwaukee with a tough question. He gets $5.5 million in 2026 and $7.5 million in 2027, before option years in 2028 and 2029. In those final years, he would make $9 million and $13 million, respectively, with small buyouts if the Crew decline either option. While those would be fine prices for a quality starting pitcher, it’s a lot for a reliever, given the Brewers’ small-market status and their need to stretch their payroll and make the most of every dollar. So, 2026 is where the rubber will really meet the road for Ashby. The Brewers will need to figure out how to stretch him out as a starter, even though they have a lot of depth in the rotation already between Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester, Tobias Myers, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, and Carlos Rodriguez. If Ashby becomes a dominant starter to the tune of the 176 ERA+ he has posted (per Baseball Reference), then he becomes an obvious keeper. Even if he is relatively solid, it's a good buy through at least 2027, when the Brewers could look to deal him. On the flip side, if Ashby can be a dominant reliever, the Brewers may want to use him as a closer and look at dealing him for a return similar to what Devin Williams fetched (maybe more, since Ashby remains under team control through 2028), since teams have been known to overpay for closers. That would be an excellent outcome, even if it means adjusting the roles of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and rookie Craig Yoho. If neither happens, Milwaukee has the choice of not picking up his 2028 option. That course of action would put Ashby into the arbitration process, which could get very rough and wreck the team’s relationship with him (see Josh Hader and Burnes for examples). On the other hand, he's both smart and amiable, and would probably not be unduly insulted by having the option turned down. Ashby is not a player in a typical “make-or-break” situation. He’s pitched quite well in the role he’s fit into, but he could be capable of so much more. The real question is whether he can reach the heights that appeared possible in 2022, when he signed that extension, or if the Brewers will have to move him due to a high price tag for his performance. Maybe the real question is: Since trading Ashby would take a much smaller chunk out of the team's pitching plan and only a slightly smaller chunk off their projected payroll, might he be a trade candidate this month, rather than Peralta? View the full article

The San Diego Padres lost Dylan Cease to free agency, may lose Michael King, and have been rumored to be considering bullpen arms for the starting rotation. Despite all of this, they are still willing to move one of their rotation arms. Dennis Lin of The Athletic is reporting that the San Diego Padres "have shown a willingness" to deal Nick Pivetta, though Lin goes on to say a deal is "not considered likely" and the team would require a "steep return". It's not that the Friars don't need the 33 year old right handed - it's that he's owed $19 million in 2026 and could potentially earn an additional $32 million through 2028, if he doesn't opt out of his contract following this season. Trading Pivetta would lighten the books and give the team the flexibility to use some of that money saved to acquire multiple starters. Pivetta made 31 starts in 2025 sporting an impressive 2.87 ERA, though a 3.49 FIP suggests some negative regression may be on its way in 2026. His 19.4% K-BB rate was exceptional highlighted by one of the best four-seam fastballs in all of baseball. Displaying four plus pitches last year, it's clear he has plenty of juice left and likely would fetch a solid return if dealt. Do you think the Padres should deal Pivetta? Let us know what you think in the comments! View the full article

After a tough NLDS loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024, the San Diego Padres entered the offseason with high hopes—only to stumble and fall to the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card round this past season. Now, as the Winter Meetings begin, big names are signing, but the Padres, facing tight finances, must tread carefully. Their projected 2026 payroll is $201 million, down $10 million from last season. They still have $43 million before they reach the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, but with the ownership group contemplating selling the team, that amount may not be in their budget. The team will need to be strategic with how they approach free agency this offseason and can't just pursue the "beauty of the ball". With that in mind, here are three players that the Padres DO NOT need to sign. Luis Arráez, 1B/2B Arráez wasn't much of a producer offensively last season, posting career lows with a .719 OPS and .289 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). For the first time in his seven MLB seasons, his BABIP fell below .300. He did avoid strikeouts, fanning only 21 times last season, but his refusal to draw walks—just 34 in 675 plate appearances—limits his value. He is a contact hitter who recorded a mere 1.1 percent barrel rate in 2025, another personal low. Defensively, Arráez was the Padres' primary first baseman last season, logging 993 2/3 innings at the position, with only 82 innings at second base. The Padres do not need him at either spot. Jake Cronenworth firmly handles second base when healthy. Arráez posted a positive fWAR (0.9) last season, but his -16.6 defensive rating from FanGraphs is a clear liability. He is a below-average defender at a position most notably held by power hitters. The Padres could use an upgrade over Gavin Sheets at first base, but Arráez is not that solution. Cody Bellinger, OF Bellinger's name is everywhere this offseason, aside from Kyle Tucker. Every contender seems linked to him. He managed a strong rebound at the plate after missing 32 games in both 2023 and 2024. He played 152 games this year, the most since 2019. Although he's hit 23 or more home runs each of the past four seasons, his BABIP has topped .300 only once since 2019, when he hit 47 home runs. Bellinger, like Arráez, does not walk enough. He struck out a career-low 13.7 percent of the time but walked only 57 times in 656 plate appearances (8.7 percent). Given his contact approach, his BABIP should be better for an everyday starter. Defensively, Bellinger is solid in the outfield with a +8 and +7 DRS (defensive runs saved) in the corner outfield positions, but was a liability in center field with a -3 rating. He won't take innings from Fernando Tatis Jr., who just won his second Gold Glove Award in right field, but Bellinger would be a slight improvement over Ramón Laureano (+2 DRS) in left field. However, Bellinger's inconsistency at the plate doesn't warrant the massive contract he will receive. J.T. Realmuto, C Freddy Fermin is currently the starting catcher, but he lacks experience as a primary catcher despite four years in the league. Defensively, he excels, ranking second among eligible MLB catchers with a +13 DRS over 803 1/3 innings, though he offers little offensive upside. He had a 1.0 fWAR last season but had a -11 offensive rating. An upgrade is likely needed, but Realmuto doesn't need to be that guy. The former Phillie turns 35 before the season begins and has caught in at least 110 games in nine of his 12 MLB seasons. That workload will wear on catchers quicker than other positions. Offensively, he doesn't provide enough upside to warrant the $10-15 million annual contract. However, Realmuto's BABIP has exceeded .300 in all but one of his 12 MLB seasons. Striking out is an issue, doing so 23.5 percent of the time last season, and he only hit 12 home runs and 52 RBIs in 550 plate appearances. The catcher doesn't produce enough offensive production to warrant the Padres paying for him, since Fermin outperforms him defensively. There are cheaper options available, or give Luis Campusano a sixth try to live up to the hype he produced as a prospect. I'm anticipating a relatively quiet Winter Meetings for the Padres, given their financial limitations; however, this is when crazy acquisitions happen, so who knows what will happen. View the full article

Since the offseason officially began in early November, Minnesota Twins starting pitchers Pablo López and Joe Ryan have been two of the most speculated-about players in baseball, with many pundits predicting one or both of the frontline arms to be moved this winter. Reports from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal have now downplayed the likelihood of López and/or Ryan being moved, but that doesn't mean team decision-makers won't part ways with their surplus starting pitching to fill roster holes. In fact, they should make a concerted effort to do just that. After the frontline duo of López and Ryan, Minnesota's rotation is projected to include Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Taj Bradley. The quintet of Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Mick Abel, Andrew Morris, and Kendry Rojas could fill Triple-A St. Paul's starting rotation, giving the club 10 major league-caliber (or at least promising) starting pitchers between the two levels. At the same time, the organization is deficient at multiple positions, with first base and the middle infield being the most glaring areas of need. Instead of parting ways with one of their two frontline arms, the club would be wise to dip into its depth, trading Ober or one of their inexperienced, high-upside arms (like Matthews, Festa, or Abel) to fill holes on the position player side. The return packages Minnesota would receive for Ober, Woods Richardson, or one of their inexperienced arms would be meaningfully less exciting than what they could net for López or Ryan. Still, the club could find itself in a win-win scenario by trading one or more, adding much-needed talent and depth while clearing up the logjam at the back end of the rotation. Ober, in particular, is an interesting trade chip, given that there are multiple avenues for Minnesota to extract value for him this offseason. The 30-year-old is expected to earn $4.6 million in arbitration, making him an enticing, low-cost veteran arm hoping to rebound from his worst season in the majors. Could the Twins swap him with the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed hitting first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who also had a lackluster 2025 campaign? Certainly, though Minnesota would only do that if they can also get a secondary piece in the trade. Alternatively, the front office could flip Ober for multiple prospects, clearing roughly $5 million from the club's payroll and providing them more spending flexibility. That money could go toward a position player like Miguel Andujar, Rhys Hoskins, or Isiah Kiner-Falefa, on a one-year contract. Given that Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, and Abel are pre-arbitration players set to earn the league minimum in 2026, trading them wouldn't provide the same savings potential as trading Ober would. Instead, the intent of moving them would be to net similar value, with the club targeting cost-effective major league-ready position player talent. Minnesota could swap one of its young pitchers for a player like Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas or Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Jordan Lawlar. New York Mets position players Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuña are also intriguing names the Twins could pursue. Starting pitching is Minnesota's strength. The club has frontline talent under multiple seasons of control and a surplus of high-upside depth. Instead of parting ways with one of their top arms in López or Ryan, the club should instead dip into its depth, trading one or more of Ober, Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, or Abel to address holes on the position player side. The Twins have the depth necessary to absorb the loss of one or more arms. Team decision-makers should make an effort to address their lack of well-rounded positional talent and increase their chances of making the postseason in 2026. View the full article

The Winter Meetings are upon us, and that means rumor season is in full swing. This offseason, 2019 All-Star Lucas Giolito is a free agent, and with starting pitching at a premium, he should have multiple suitors. That said, the San Diego Padres should avoid making a deal. Despite his success in 2025, there just isn’t enough underlying metric support to justify a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract. I won’t deny that he had a surprisingly productive year. Giolito was paid what I thought was an excessive $19 million salary and helped the Boston Red Sox return to the postseason. 2025 Stats 26 Starts 145 IP 3.41 ERA 4.17 FIP 19.7% K-Rate 9.1% BB-Rate 2.0 fWAR Because of this strong campaign, he’s projected to sign a multi-year deal worth over $15 million annually. I don’t see that contract aging well for most teams — especially the Padres. The health of San Diego’s rotation is a bone I’ve picked all offseason, and I’ll continue to do so. Only Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease surpassed 150 innings, and the only other 100+ inning arm was Randy Vasquez at 133 2/3 frames. The remaining spots went to an unsuccessful mix of unhealthy arms (Yu Darvish, Michael King) and struggling lefties (Nestor Cortes, JP Sears). This approach isn’t viable, and Giolito — who missed the entire 2024 season with a torn UCL and the end of 2025 plus the playoffs with a right elbow injury — is a major injury risk. Cease, who had five consecutive seasons of 30+ starts, has signed with Toronto, so the Padres should prioritize rebounding with another durable arm. Along with health concerns, the underlying metrics don’t look great. Coming from someone who doesn’t believe these stats tell the full story, there’s still reason for skepticism. The excellent ERA and respectable FIP from 2025 likely won’t continue given their “expected” counterparts from FanGraphs. His 2025 xERA was 4.99, and his xFIP was 4.59. He also benefited from a tame .273 BABIP. If that number climbs closer to .300, his production will dip. Beyond health, another large concern for the Padres’ staff is sustainable success. Cease is gone, so the Padres won’t reap the rewards of navigating his historically unlucky 2025 (as discussed in my FA outlook). Aside from him, there aren’t any Padres starters who project to improve in 2026. Pivetta should remain reliable, but at his age it’s hard to sustain that level of breakout. The other main starter, Vasquez, was heavily reliant on “unsustainable success.” He’s another an example of someone whose underlying numbers I trust. As discussed in my pro-Vasquez article, he relies on a six-pitch mix, has an incredible sinker, and excels with runners on base. Giolito shares the clutch-pitching ability (76.7 LOB%), but lacks the arsenal depth and go-to pitch needed for me to ignore his underlying metrics. Speaking of dominant pitches, that’s another area of concern for Giolito’s outlook. As a Chicagoan, I vividly remember the dominance of Giolito’s changeup during his time with the White Sox. He actually had two: a normal low-80s version that fell out of the zone as hitters lunged forward, and what might be my favorite pitch ever; a parachute changeup. It would come in high, look like a missed fastball, then float back into the zone for a strike. A risky, dominant pitch. It even got him a strikeout on Cody Bellinger in the 2019 All-Star Game. Clearly, it’s with great sadness that I write about the falloff of one of my favorite pitchers and pitches. Unfortunately, the numbers haven’t held. His changeup peaked with a +16 Statcast run value in 2019 and remained excellent through 2021. Since then, it’s been stuck at +0 for three straight seasons. One positive sign is that his fastball value (+5) returned above average results for the first time since 2020. It’s hard to see that continuing, though, as it averages just 93.3 mph (1.7 mph below league average), and he throws it 48% of the time. It is possible for a pitcher with nasty off-speed stuff to successfully rely on a slower fastball, but with only two other pitches (a +1 slider and a +0 changeup), there isn’t much preventing hitters from sitting on the nearly half of Giolito’s pitches that are fastballs. To summarize, just look at the Statcast breakdown of his 2025 season (some numbers vary from FanGraphs because they calculate things differently): 5.00 xERA (Bottom 13th Percentile) .267 xBA (Bottom 15th Percentile) 93.3 Fastball MPH (Bottom 32nd Percentile) 90.3 Avg Exit Velo (Bottom 22nd Percentile) 26.7% Chase Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile) 19.7% K-Rate (Bottom 28th Percentile) 9.1% BB-Rate (Bottom 30th Percentile) 9.0% Barrel Rate (Bottom 39th Percentile) 41.1% Hard Hit Rate (Bottom 45th Percentile) While I’m glad to see Giolito earn himself another big payday, the Padres, and any team needing a reliable starter, should look elsewhere in free agency. View the full article

The Twins earned themselves a Compensation Round B Pick for the 2026 MLB Draft. Jamie shares the details on how they landed it and where it will land in the draft order, while Jeremy suggests it's a pick the Twins could offer up in a trade, given the current state of the team. View the full article

In this video, we break down six hitters, including Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, that the Blue Jays could sign in MLB free agency. Will Toronto go big with a Tucker or Bichette signing, or will they pursue some of the lesser names listed, like Cody Bellinger or Jorge Polanco? View the full article

For the past few years, the Twins have focused on accumulating starting pitching depth. The earliest form of this pattern probably dates back to 2021, when they had a full rotation of Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, JA Happ, and newly-extended Randy Dobnak, but still elected to sign journeyman Matt Shoemaker to a deal that bumped Dobnak to a long-relief, swingman role to begin the season. Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer, two lefty swingmen who had parts of two years of MLB experience, were also in the system as high-minors depth. If you were watching the Twins at all at that time, you know how it ended. But the intention seemed clear: the club did not want to be caught without enough rotation depth, and Shoemaker was another buffer against that eventuality. The following season, the club opened the year with six starting pitchers on the Opening Day roster: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Bailey Ober. Smeltzer, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands were also in the system, though Winder and Sands were not really seen as MLB-ready starters, and neither had debuted. In 2023, the team made the controversial decision to start Ober at Triple-A St. Paul, deferring to Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and newcomer Pablo López to form the rotation. Exemplifying the value of starting pitcher depth, Ober was promoted in April to take Mahle’s place. Behind him on the depth chart, though, was Louis Varland, who had five promising big-league starts the year prior and was seen as one of the more exciting pitching prospects in the system. That campaign served as the sign that the Twins were truly all-in on this strategy. They had six pitchers who looked like quality big-league starters, one more prospect seen as ready, and they even had Paddack as a potential late-season wild card if his recovery from Tommy John surgery was successful. Even so, they had to rely on a short run of starts from 35-year-old Dallas Keuchel. They attempted to do the same in 2024, though the cupboard was a bit more bare. López, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack returned to the rotation, and Anthony DeSclafani was slated to round out a rotation filled with established starters. Varland assumed the 2023 Ober role, as a starter with major-league experience sent down to keep warm in St. Paul until the need arose—and boy did it arise quickly, as the injured DeSclafani never pitched for the Twins, and Varland made the Opening Day rotation. Behind Varland was Simeon Woods Richardson, who had two appearances across two years, but he had impressed in spring training, and he looked ready to get some run. He got that chance after Varland struggled enough to be demoted in April. Behind Woods Richardson was David Festa, who had no big-league experience, but he did look likely to be ready at some point in 2024. Sure enough, he was called up in June. Finally, this season, the Twins took a similar tack, beginning the season with López, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson in the rotation, leaving Festa and Zebby Matthews—two top prospects with their debuts out of the way—waiting in the wings. In each of the past three seasons, the Twins have started the season with at least two young pitchers with MLB experience at Triple A: Ober and Varland in 2023; Varland and Woods Richardson in 2024; and Festa and Matthews in 2025. Did you need this history lesson? Maybe. It’s relevant to the 2026 rotation picture. Assuming no trades—which may be a big assumption, depending on your view on the status of López and Ryan, even after Ken Rosenthal's recent report—the Twins will have eight different rotation options with experience in the bigs. López, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel each started at least eight games at the highest level last season. López, Ryan, and Ober seem like locks to be in the rotation (if they’re still in the organization), and Woods Richardson is out of options, seemingly locking him into the big-league roster in some role. That leaves Festa, Matthews, Bradley, and Abel in some limbo; each has at least one minor-league option year remaining. Will the Twins once again start the season with at least two pieces of depth at Triple A? It seems likely, given previous years. Perhaps Bradley will get the nod for the fifth rotation spot, leaving Matthews and Festa (both of whom have 25 games of big-league experience) as the first and second lines of defense against injury and ineffectiveness. This would push Abel, the secondary piece of the Jhoan Durán trade, to the third reserve spot. That spot has generally received about five starts per season over the past five years of Twins baseball. That’s probably fewer than anyone who has any level of belief in Abel as a starter would want him to get in his age-24 season. The eighth spot has been set aside for players like Thorpe or Sands in many seasons, not a recently graduated fringe top-100 prospect. So what do the Twins do? Do one of those eight get moved to the bullpen? Woods Richardson doesn’t profile as a bullpen candidate, and it might be hard to justify moving Bradley—acquired in a one-for-one swap for Griffin Jax—to the bullpen after three seasons in MLB rotations. Matthews and Festa are both names that could be considered bullpen fodder, as each has shown bright flashes but struggled—which is also an argument for Bradley, I suppose. And Abel probably has the brightest flashing "RELIEVER RISK" light of them all. But will the Twins make such a decision? Further complicating things are Connor Prielipp and Kendry Rojas, two Triple-A pitchers added to the 40-man roster last month to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Both seem poised to debut in the next season or two, and have upsides as high as any of the other fringe arms listed. This crowding may further push the Twins to make reliever decisions—or perhaps even trade decisions—on the 10 internal names who are on the radar at this point. How would you handle this, though? As the offseason goes on, there will be a ton of discussion as to what the team should do with all these golldang pitchers. There's one more lesson they should have gleaned from the last few years: Letting a logjam slowly unclog itself through accident and injury risks stunting the development of some of the arms making up that jam. Proactivity matters. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason navigating a unique organizational crossroads. After spending much of the past year evaluating a potential sale, the Pohlads abruptly pulled the franchise off the market in August. Instead of changing principal ownership, the club pivoted to bringing in two new minority partners. Reports said that one group would be based locally and the other led by an investor family from the East Coast. Now, the first half of that picture is finally coming into focus. Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press reported the development earlier this week, writing, “Look for Minneapolis based Varde Partners, a worldwide multi billion dollar credit investment corporation, to be announced soon as a limited partner with the Minnesota Twins. The firm is one of at least two limited partners expected to assist in diminishing the team’s reported 500 million dollar debt.” The addition of Varde Partners marks a notable shift in the composition of Twins leadership. Headquartered in Minneapolis, Varde is a global credit and investment firm overseeing an estimated $16 to 17 billion in assets with more than 300 employees across the world. The company is led by managing partners Brad Bauer, Francisco Milone, and Tim Mooney, all of whom bring deep experience in large scale financial strategy and corporate development. Given their background, it is difficult to imagine that Varde Partners will be anything less than a stabilizing force for a franchise navigating a sizable debt load. Their presence alone signals that the Twins are looking for more structured, more sophisticated financial guidance than the current iteration of the Pohlad family has typically leaned on. For an organization supposedly carrying around $500 million in debt, a partner with extensive investment acumen is not a small addition. What remains unclear is how much influence these new partners will wield when it comes to baseball decisions. Minority stakes rarely dictate roster construction, but their involvement does lighten the financial strain on the club. If that reduction in debt eventually leads to more flexibility in retaining talent or supplementing the roster, fans will welcome the impact. At a minimum, the presence of motivated and financially savvy investors should nudge the overall organizational direction toward a more modern and competitive mindset. With one partner now identified, attention naturally turns to the second expected minority owner from the East Coast. If the timing of this first announcement is any indication, that reveal may not be far behind. As the Twins navigate a pivotal offseason, the business side of the franchise is reshaping itself in a way that could have long term implications for the organization’s stability and ambition. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason navigating a unique organizational crossroads. After spending much of the past year evaluating a potential sale, the Pohlads abruptly pulled the franchise off the market in August. Instead of changing principal ownership, the club pivoted to bringing in two new minority partners. Reports said that one group would be based locally and the other led by an investor family from the East Coast. Now, the first half of that picture is finally coming into focus. Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press reported the development earlier this week, writing, “Look for Minneapolis based Varde Partners, a worldwide multi billion dollar credit investment corporation, to be announced soon as a limited partner with the Minnesota Twins. The firm is one of at least two limited partners expected to assist in diminishing the team’s reported 500 million dollar debt.” The addition of Varde Partners marks a notable shift in the composition of Twins leadership. Headquartered in Minneapolis, Varde is a global credit and investment firm overseeing an estimated $16 to 17 billion in assets with more than 300 employees across the world. The company is led by managing partners Brad Bauer, Francisco Milone, and Tim Mooney, all of whom bring deep experience in large scale financial strategy and corporate development. Given their background, it is difficult to imagine that Varde Partners will be anything less than a stabilizing force for a franchise navigating a sizable debt load. Their presence alone signals that the Twins are looking for more structured, more sophisticated financial guidance than the current iteration of the Pohlad family has typically leaned on. For an organization supposedly carrying around $500 million in debt, a partner with extensive investment acumen is not a small addition. What remains unclear is how much influence these new partners will wield when it comes to baseball decisions. Minority stakes rarely dictate roster construction, but their involvement does lighten the financial strain on the club. If that reduction in debt eventually leads to more flexibility in retaining talent or supplementing the roster, fans will welcome the impact. At a minimum, the presence of motivated and financially savvy investors should nudge the overall organizational direction toward a more modern and competitive mindset. With one partner now identified, attention naturally turns to the second expected minority owner from the East Coast. If the timing of this first announcement is any indication, that reveal may not be far behind. As the Twins navigate a pivotal offseason, the business side of the franchise is reshaping itself in a way that could have long term implications for the organization’s stability and ambition. View the full article

There are plenty of valid criticisms to level at Jed Hoyer, as a top executive in baseball operations. He was hired by the Ricketts family to replace his predecessor and mentor, Theo Epstein, partially because he's a more fiscally cautious, more easily managed version of Epstein. From a fan's perspective, Hoyer's inability to manage up and massage more money out of the ownership group is a problem. It's an obstacle to the sustained success the Cubs and their fans have never enjoyed, and which should be their goal. Hoyer also hasn't built as strong a player development or scouting operation as he has attempted to construct, putting more pressure on expensive acquisitions to power each year's version of his team. That might be beginning to change, but it's already taken longer to do so than it was supposed to, and Hoyer's track record in that area is shaky. Like Epstein, he's generally been good at allocating resources toward those departments, but unspectacular when it comes to actually finding or retaining excellent people to do that work. (Perhaps, in Dan Kantrovitz and Tyler Zombro (and before Zombro, Craig Breslow), we're beginning to see that change, too.) One thing Hoyer receives considerable guff for, however, really isn't fair. Fans tend to catastrophize, and because the catastrophe most often facing the Cubs is a lack of star power stemming from ownership's refusal to spend the type of money the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Blue Jays do, many people accuse Hoyer of being habitually inactive in building his teams. That's just not the case. While he's limited by his own natural conservatism; a lack of Epstein's excellence at getting into the room and wooing a player he wants; and the Ricketts' greed, Hoyer never lets an opportunity to improve his team pass without substantial action. When he took over in the fall of 2020, there was bad business at hand. The Rickettses put him under the gun, budget-wise, and to make payroll work, Hoyer had to make some unwelcome decisions. He non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, and traded Yu Darvish. However, that Darvish trade was a big thing, in which the team received (among others) Owen Caissie. He also got Zach Davies in that deal, at least partially stabilizing his weakened rotation. When the Rickettses made a midwinter course correction and let him spend some money after all, it was too late to get Schwarber back, but Hoyer splashed that cash around as best he could, signing players like Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta and Andrew Chafin. At the 2021 trade deadline, of course, Hoyer was equally aggressive, painful though it was. By gutting a team that fell apart in late June, he got not only Pete Crow-Armstrong, but Kevin Alcántara and Daniel Palencia (among a much bigger group of players, many of whom didn't pan out). He was decisive and aggressive. In the lockout winter of 2021-22, he started to build the contender he envisioned, not necessarily in 2022 but especially in 2023. Even in a year when he knew the team would still be rebuilding, he signed Marcus Stroman (three years, $71 million) and Seiya Suzuki (five years, $85 million) to noteworthy deals. Those guys became parts of his medium-term plan, and they were solid moves for a team that was not yet ready to make a bigger splash. Suzuki, of course, has paid off in especially impressive fashion, figuring out American big-league pitching just in time to be instrumental for the team's resurgence. The following offseason, sensing that his team was close to ready for a forward surge, Hoyer got more aggressive. He gave Jameson Taillon four years and $68 million and Dansby Swanson seven years and $177 million, in addition to rolling the dice on Cody Bellinger at one year and $17 million. Those weren't the even bigger moves many fans wanted to see, but Hoyer did (generally) get them right, and they represented major investments in the team. Bellinger, especially, gave him a wonderful return on investment, and Taillon and Swanson have cleared the most important bar for deals of those kinds: three years later, they're not regrettable moves. The 2023 team came up short of its goals, for which Hoyer bears plenty of blame. He responded, though, with another strong and very active winter. The proactive, opportunistic trade for Michael Busch might be remembered as the best move he ever made. Later in the offseason, he pounced on the somewhat underrated Shota Imanaga, and the deal to which he inked him turned out to be team-friendly in multiple ways. After waiting out Bellinger's market well into February, he got him back on shockingly good terms, too. Last winter, after another season of frustration for the team, he pressed the pedal down even harder. He signed Matthew Boyd for two years and $29 million, and while those numbers didn't lead anyone to expect a great deal out of him, a great deal is exactly what Boyd has proved to be. His bigger, bolder move, of course, was the trade for Kyle Tucker, wherein he used players acquired at the 2022 (Hayden Wesneski) and 2024 (Isaac Paredes) trade deadlines to land a genuine superstar. View the full article

One of the highlights of the MLB Winter Meetings is the Rule 5 Draft, which typically concludes the annual event. The Rule 5 Draft is a way for teams not only to get better inexpensively, but also for prospects blocked or overlooked in their system to get an opportunity with another organization. Here is a full definition of the Rule 5 Draft, according to the MLB.com website: Some famous Rule 5 selections include pitcher Johan Santana, infielder Dan Uggla, and outfielders Josh Hamilton and Shane Victorino. Brad Keller is an example of a selection who recently found success with the Royals, as the Royals selected him in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. The Royals have two spots open on the 40-man roster. Thus, it's possible that they could add someone in the Rule 5 Draft on Wednesday. However, in this post, we are going to look at players in the Royals system who are eligible and could get selected by other teams in the Rule 5 Draft. Typically, rebuilding teams use the Rule 5 Draft to add talent. Let's look at five Royals candidates who may be selected, including three pitchers and two position players. Felix Arronde, RHP (Highest Level Played: High-A) Arronde may be the Royals' most high-profile prospect available in the Rule 5 Draft. He's rated as our No. 12 prospect in the Royals system and is ranked No. 13 by MLB Pipeline. Arronde pitched primarily in High-A Quad Cities last year, posting a 2.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 26 appearances (24 starts) and 128.2 IP. The 22-year-old righty has moved slowly in the Royals' system, but provides an intriguing profile that could have some upside as an end-of-the-rotation arm or middle-innings reliever. Arronde didn't strike out a ton of batters in 2025, as he only sported a 19.5% K rate. However, he demonstrates solid control and command. Last season, he posted a 2.40 BB/K ratio, an 11.4 K-BB%, and a 26.5% CSW (highlighted by a 12.1% swinging-strike rate), according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, the Dominican native has an intriguing three-pitch mix with a changeup that rates as a plus pitch, according to MLB Pipeline. When the changeup is clicking, he can pile up strikeouts in bunches, as illustrated at times last season with the River Bandits. Arronde has the size (6'3) and the pitching ability to be a fringe MLB reliever right now, which a rebuilding club may need. The only question with Arronde is that he hasn't faced much high-level competition, which could dampen his outlook in Wednesday's draft. Still, for a team willing to be patient, Arronde is an arm who could offer significant long-term upside, as long as that club is willing to allow some growing pains throughout the 2026 season. Javi Vaz, 2B/OF (Highest Level Played: Double-A) A former Vanderbilt product and 15th-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Vaz was getting some dark-horse prospect buzz going into 2025, especially after getting an invite to Spring Training last March. In 2024, in 523 plate appearances with Double-A Northwest Arkansas, he slashed .263/.375/.379 with a .754 OPS and 117 wRC+. He also hit eight home runs, scored 80 runs, and stole 16 bases with the Naturals. Vaz started the year again with Northwest Arkansas, and the expectation was that he would eventually matriculate to Triple-A Omaha at some point. However, that promotion never happened, as Vaz stagnated at the plate with the Naturals last season. As a 24-year-old, the utility player slashed .256/.360/.326 with a .685 OPS and 99 wRC+. The power, which wasn't plentiful to begin with, dropped dramatically last season. He hit only three home runs, and his ISO fell from .115 in 2024 to .070 in 2025. Hence, the Royals opted not to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason, making him eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Even though he hasn't played Triple-A ball, Vaz is more than capable of playing in the Majors as a utility guy off the bench. Despite a lack of power, his plate discipline has long been his best tool. He's sported a BB/K ratio over one the past three seasons, including a 1.26 mark in 2025. He also has a high-contact approach, which could be valued by a team that is looking for someone to put the ball in play. When looking at his AA metrics from TJ Stats, he had a Z-Contact% of 91.4% and an O-Swing% of 22.9%, both stellar marks. He also saw his wOBA increase dramatically at the end of the season after a slow start, as shown in his rolling wOBA chart in the TJ Stats profile below. There isn't a ton of long-term upside with selecting Vaz, but he could be a nice bench piece for a club that can provide immediate value in multiple areas in 2026. Chandler Champlain, RHP (Highest Level Played: Triple-A) Drafted by the Yankees initially, Champlain is a prime example of why Triple-A pitching metrics should be taken with a grain of salt. In 29 appearances (25 starts) and 119.1 IP, the former USC product posted a 7.84 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and 5.46 FIP with the Storm Chasers. When looking at those numbers, it wouldn't make sense for a team to spend a Rule 5 pick on the 26-year-old righty. However, when delving deeper into his profile, one can see why a team might take a flier on Champlain, despite his awful stat line a year ago. First off, Champlain probably isn't a starter, and the Storm Chasers began transitioning him to the bullpen at the end of last season. In his last four appearances of the year, all in relief, he posted a 19.4% K rate, 13.9% K-BB%, and a 1.50 WHIP. His ERA was high at 5.63, but his FIP was a lot more palatable at 2.50. Hence, in a more limited role, the 2021 ninth-round selection could thrive, even at the Major League level. He doesn't walk batters, and he also does a good job of inducing groundballs, as illustrated by his 41.5% groundball rate. In terms of stuff, Champlain's fastball pitches, particularly his four-seamer and sinker, are not great. However, his breaking pitches rate much better, so it's not like Champlain is working with a completely bare cupboard, arsenal-wise. His slider had a 101 TJ Stuff+ rating, and his sweeper had a 100 rating. His curveball and changeup also sported TJ Stuff+ marks of 99 and 98, respectively. Thus, he has four pitches that rate either slightly above or slightly below average, which gives him potential, especially in a move to the bullpen, where his stuff may play out better. He also has demonstrated solid strike-throwing ability with those pitches, as illustrated by his overall 50.8% zone rate. A team may select Champlain in the Rule 5 and tweak his mix (maybe throw the four-seamer less) and some of the grips on his pitches to help them increase velocity and movement, which in turn could help improve the TJ Stuff+ marks on those offerings overall. He's been seen as a Top-20 prospect in the Royals system before, so that former pedigree could convince a club to take a flier on him on Wednesday, with the hope that their pitching development team can mold him quickly in Spring Training. Luca Tresh, C (Highest Level Played: Triple-A) Tresh may be the victim of a Royals system that is incredibly deep at the catching position. Not only is Salvador Perez firmly entrenched in Kansas City (and for at least two more seasons after signing an extension this offseason), but top prospect Carter Jensen had a sensational rookie debut last September, and Blake Mitchell and Ramon Ramirez remain Top-10 prospects in the Royals system as well. That said, the 2021 17th-round pick had a great year in Triple-A Omaha and could be seen as a potential backup for a rebuilding team in 2026. Last season with the Storm Chasers, Tresh slashed .259/.321/.473 with a .794 OPS and 103 wRC+ in 271 plate appearances. He also hit 10 home runs and collected 37 RBI. This was despite spending time splitting catching duties with Jensen, who primarily played in Omaha in 2025. When looking at his Statcast profile via TJ Stats, the former NC State product demonstrated an ability to barrel and pull balls in the air, as well as to swing aggressively at pitches in the strike zone. The primary concerns with his Statcast profile are that he didn't hit the ball consistently hard (37th percentile hard-hit rate) despite barrels, and that he chases (21st percentile O-Swing%) while walking little (16th percentile BB%). However, for a backup catcher, where most of the value comes from behind the plate, this kind of profile is more than welcome. Tresh isn't as athletic as Jensen or even Mitchell, and while he calls a solid game, he doesn't possess the arm strength of other catching prospects in the Royals system. He threw out 12 runners on 96 attempts last year, a 13% rate. That's okay, but it's nothing special, which probably explains why the Royals opted not to protect Tresh in the Rule 5 Draft, especially with Jensen likely going to be the backup in 2026. Nonetheless, a team willing to select Tresh could get an immediate backup catcher who could grow into a starting role, much like former Royals-produced catcher Freddy Fermin, who is the primary catcher now in San Diego. Beck Way, RHP (Highest Level Played: Triple-A) Like Champlain, the stats were rough for Way in Omaha last year, his first go-around in Triple-A. In 23 appearances and 38 IP with the Storm Chasers, Way posted a 6.87 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, and 7.23 FIP. The former fourth-round pick struggled with control and command in Triple-A, as illustrated by his 0.92 K/BB ratio, -1.1% K-BB%, and 25.4% CSW. However, he was much better earlier in the year in Double-A Northwest Arkansas. In 23 appearances and 36.1 IP with the Naturals, he posted a 4.95 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 4.55 FIP. He also produced a 1.94 BB/K ratio, 9.2% K-BB%, and a 28.8% CSW. While those aren't great metrics, they are certainly better than what he produced in Omaha. What makes Way an enticing Rule 5 option for teams is that while the control was erratic, the stuff certainly wasn't. That is illustrated in his TJ Stats metrics from his time in Omaha, shown below. Way sported three pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (cutter, sweeper, and changeup), and all four of his offerings sported grades of 55 or higher. His best offering was his sweeper, which not only had a 118 TJ Stuff+ and 69 grade, but also generated a 41.4% whiff rate. Thus, the strikeout ability is there, and he has some prospect buzz after pitching in the Arizona Fall League a couple of years ago. While Way doesn't have the prospect pedigree of Arronde or even Champlain, I believe Way may be the most likely pitcher selected on Wednesday, due to the encouraging stuff numbers. The Royals acquired him because his high-velocity arm certainly can be a weapon in the bullpen at the MLB level. However, he just hasn't shown the control to be a viable option in the big leagues yet, especially on a team with playoff aspirations. However, on a rebuilding team? Way may receive more patience, which could help him thrive not just in 2026, but perhaps long-term as a late-innings, high-leverage reliever (he had 12 saves in Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2024). View the full article

In 2023, the Brewers made a significant change in how they approached the MLB Draft. They selected a large number of high-school players and were able to sign many of them to overslot bonuses, stocking the lower levels of their minor leagues with raw talent and potential. They've cleaved to that strategy ever since, and the results look very promising. One of the biggest wins thus far was selecting Cooper Pratt in the sixth round of that 2023 draft, paying him second-round money and watching him jump onto industry-wide top-100 prospect lists after his first full season. Pratt is a standout defensive shortstop with a strong and accurate arm. He won the Minor League Gold Glove Award at shortstop in 2024 and remained stout there in 2025. At 6-foot-3, Pratt moves well. He has the range to make all the necessary plays and the arm to be a regular shortstop at the highest level. Pratt is also savvy on the basepaths, stealing 31 bases this season with an 86% success rate. At the plate, Pratt makes contact at an above-average rate, but he hasn’t consistently hit the ball with authority and has struggled against premium velocity. As a 20-year-old promoted to Double A, Pratt saw his numbers slip from .277/.362/.406 to .238/.343/.348. Last winter, as an ascending up-the-middle prospect, Pratt might have been a major piece in a trade for Kyle Tucker or Garret Crochet. Keith Law, for example, ranked Pratt 44th last offseason, while he ranked Kyle Teel 37th and Braden Montgomery 38th. They became the two main prospects the White Sox received for Crochet. Cam Smith ranked 43rd and was the prospect headliner in the Tucker trade. Could the Brewers have sold high on Pratt last offseason and added a key contributor to what ended up being a 97-win team? It's not that simple—Crochet, clearly, would have cost at least two of Pratt, while the Tucker deal also involved a valuable big-leaguer going from Chicago to Houston. Still, that's the caliber of prospect he was heading into his second full season as a professional. This winter, Pratt’s stock will likely be down, FanGraphs published their Brewers 2026 prospect list, with Pratt moving from third in the organization (with a 50 overall grade) to eighth (with a 45 grade). Pratt is still very young and has plenty of time to grow into more power and make adjustments, but if this lower assessment is the industry consensus, then in the short term, he is likely to drop from top-100 lists and may have lost some trade value. Long-term, the question appears to be whether becoming a solid everyday shortstop is now Pratt’s ceiling, instead of something more like his floor. It's worth noting, though, that while FanGraphs has soured on him, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ranked him third in the Brewers system again this fall, and each has the same grade (55, with a High risk grade) on him that they had last year. The tools haven't collapsed or anything, and he held his own at age 20 in the upper minors. There's cause for some concern, but not yet any call for panic. Jesús Made has unequivocally overtaken Pratt as the Brewers' shortstop of the future, and should begin 2026 at Double-A Biloxi. The team can continue to develop Pratt at Triple-A Nashville, where he will be one of the youngest regulars—or they can trade him now, hedging their bet that he becomes a star and taking the buyout on their winning draft wager. What do you think? Should the Brewers cash in on Pratt this winter, or will he grow into his 2024 promise and become an upper-tier big-league shortstop? View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have spent the early offseason in the thick of speculation, as the industry waits to see how far their teardown will go. Joe Ryan’s name has been tossed around. Byron Buxton rumors refuse to die down. Now, another player has entered the conversation. Ryan Jeffers might not be the most obvious trade chip, but his age, contract status, and offensive growth make him a realistic target for a contender in need of catching stability. For the Philadelphia Phillies, that need might soon become a top priority. Philadelphia is sitting at a crossroads as it approaches 2026. J.T. Realmuto is the premier free-agent catcher on the market and has been everything the Phillies hoped for since the moment he arrived from Miami. Two All-Star appearances and countless big moments frame his reputation as one of the best backstops of his era. The problem is timing. Realmuto is entering his age-35 season, and the Phillies must determine whether to extend their relationship or pivot to a younger, more affordable alternative. There is no internal candidate ready to replace him, which means they will either need to re-sign Realmuto or find a veteran replacement from the outside. The Phillies are juggling more than one significant decision. Kyle Schwarber is also a free agent. He remains one of the top middle-of-the-order bats available. Bringing back both Schwarber and Realmuto would require serious financial gymnastics. Losing Realmuto, however, would require the front office to replace production somewhere else. That is why Philadelphia has closely monitored the catching market. If his market continues to heat up, the Phillies may shift their focus to a trade, and it could lead them to call the Twins about Jeffers. Jeffers is coming off a solid season, wherein he slashed .266/.356/.397 (a 108 OPS+) in 119 games. He continues to provide above-average offensive value at a premium defensive position. Over the past three seasons, he has posted a 113 OPS+ in 1,264 plate appearances, with a 10.8% walk rate boosting his offensive value in 2025. Compared to Realmuto’s expected price tag, Jeffers looks like an efficient alternative, projected to make $6.6 million in arbitration. For Philadelphia, the appeal is clear. Jeffers would stabilize the position while allowing the front office to allocate resources elsewhere. A Jeffers trade would also signal that the Phillies are comfortable passing on Realmuto, which could open the door to retaining Schwarber and left-handed starter Ranger Suárez. If Philadelphia prefers roster flexibility, Jeffers checks a lot of boxes. It's the very kind of move, in fact, that first brought Realmuto to them. Philadelphia traded three players to the Marlins in early 2019 for Realmuto, who had two years of team control remaining at the time. Minnesota’s involvement is also logical. After their trade-deadline fire sale, the Twins have made it clear that virtually every veteran on the roster is available for trade. Their activity with Philadelphia last summer adds another wrinkle. The organizations completed deals involving Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader, and that familiarity can sometimes streamline negotiations. The Twins know the Phillies’ system well, and Philadelphia has a clear understanding of Minnesota’s priorities as it continues its retool. The proposed return reflects that dynamic. The Phillies could acquire Jeffers, and the Twins could receive multiple prospects in return. A potential package might include left-handed pitcher Mavis Graves (ranked 25th in the system by MLB Pipeline) and catcher Caleb Ricketts (ranked 22nd). Graves pitched all of 2025 at High A and posted a 4.41 ERA, with a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 13.7% walk rate. Ricketts could add catching depth to the Twins’ system, as the 25-year-old posted a 111 wRC+ while reaching Double-A Reading last year. Other players who could be discussed include catcher (and first baseman) Kehden Hettiger, third baseman Carson DeMartini, right-handers Ramon Marquez and Alex McFarlane, and outfielder TJayy Walton. None of these names would headline a blockbuster, but they fit the pattern of depth-focused prospect accumulation the Twins pursued at the deadline. This kind of trade would not grab national headlines the way Ryan or Buxton speculation might, but it speaks to where the Twins currently stand. A controllable catcher with offensive upside will always hold value, and contenders like the Phillies are preparing for significant decisions in the coming weeks. If Philadelphia decides to move on from Realmuto and turn toward a younger option, the path could run straight through Minnesota. In fact, the Twins might even be in position to hold out for a higher price. Does a trade between the Phillies and Twins make sense? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Last month, Jesse Burrill looked at the Blue Jays’ depth on the corners. Today, I’ll be looking at the middle infield options throughout the organization. In 2025, 10 different Blue Jays took a turn at either second or short, with half of them spending time on both sides of the keystone. As much fun as Myles Straw’s turn at second base was, I don’t think he’s in consideration for playing time there this season. Similarly, Will Wagner and Buddy Kennedy’s one start each at second would have them out of contention, even if they weren’t already off the team. Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Michael Stefanic both made it to double-digits up the middle, but they have elected free agency and are unlikely to be back. So, let’s start with a look at the remaining five players who have been there before. Andrés Giménez — fWAR: 1.0, wRC+: 70, Fielding Run Value: +6 The lock. The Jays traded for Giménez last year, and he is under contract through the 2029 season. He’s not going anywhere. The Platinum Glover missed time due to injury in 2025, which likely cost him another defensive award, but on the defensive side of the ball, he was exactly as advertised. There was hope (especially when he hit the first Jays home run of the 2025 season) that his bat would show some improvement, but instead he set career low marks for average (.210), SLG (.313), OPS (.598) and wRC+ (70). This feels like a bit of a repeat from heading into last season, but we all know the glove plays, and we just hope the bat is closer to league average. The real question now is which side he’ll play on. After playing the majority of his time at second base, he shifted to shortstop to close out the regular season and spent the entire playoff run at short. He didn’t look at all out of place, despite not having played a major league inning at shortstop since 2022. Like many Blue Jays, Giménez’s positional flexibility will allow the front office and management to get creative when filling out the roster. Bo Bichette — fWAR: 3.8, wRC+: 134, Fielding Run Value: -10 The big question mark. Technically a free agent, I think most would agree it’s fair to be discussing Bichette here. In a lot of ways, Bichette is the perfect ‘buddy cop/odd couple’ pairing with Giménez. One no bat/all glove and the other a liability in the field, but can flat out hit. Bichette played in 139 games last year (his most since ‘22) and set a career-high mark for doubles (44) and average (.311). That BA was second in the league, behind only Aaron Judge. Bichette’s 181 hits were second only to Bobby Witt Jr. He received some down-ballot votes for AL MVP and hit one of the most memorable home runs of the 2025 playoffs with his World Series Game 7 blast. He is absolutely going to get paid this offseason. The first question is: by who? Bryan Jaeger recently looked at Toronto’s payroll flexibility, and while there is no question that Rogers can afford to bring back Bichette, there will be other suitors. The second question is: where would he play? Injury forced him to second base (and DH) for his World Series return to the lineup, but there is desire from the fanbase to make that move permanent. My preferred middle infield for 2026 has Giménez at short with Bo at second, so the last question might become the most important one: how much of Bichette’s contract negotiations will have to do with where he’s going to play? Ernie Clement — fWAR: 3.2, wRC+: 98, Fielding Run Value: +5 (+10 overall) The ErnDog played more defensive innings than any Blue Jay last season. 593 of those innings were up the middle. If Bichette goes elsewhere, Clement is potentially the first option to fill the spot internally. A trio of great baseball minds agree — to varying degrees (hi, Leo, Jesse and Jim!). Clement’s bat obviously doesn’t come close to Bichette’s, but if that spot is taken care of, then the offense can be backfilled elsewhere on the roster (in theory) with an external addition or the return to form of Anthony Santander. If Bichette returns, Clement can still fill the infield utility role he held in 2025, moving through the positions as teammates need time off or as the lineup is optimized for each opposing pitcher. Davis Schneider — fWAR: 1.3, wRC+: 127, Fielding Run Value: 0 (-2 overall) Schneider had a bounce-back season at the plate, which, in the early weeks, didn’t look to be on the horizon. He broke spring training with the big league club and then proceeded to go 0’fer in his first nine games before getting a hit in his 10th match to raise his average to .067. That long-awaited hit wasn’t enough to stop a mid-April demotion. He came back up in June, and while he didn’t set the world on fire, he played capably at multiple positions and ended the year with improved stats across the board. I don’t think Schneider is anyone’s first choice to fill a middle infield spot (again, in a Bo-less future) with any kind of length, but he’s solid enough that he can be called on in a pinch, and like much of the roster, that flexibility provides additional value. Leo Jiménez — fWAR: -0.3, wRC+: -19, Fielding Run Value: +1 Jiménez appeared in only 44 games across all levels in 2025 (18 in the majors). Limited by hamstring issues and a nasty bout of mono, he did not take the step forward that many in the organization were likely hoping for. He went 2-for-29 (one homer) with the MLB club during his July call-up. He’s another glove-first player, but even at that, he’ll need to hit better than .069 if he hopes to stick in his next shot. It’s worth noting that in 2024, he hit .229 over 63 games and 179 ABs. Over two seasons in the majors, he has played 36 games at second base and 44 at shortstop and could be another flex piece depending on how the roster shakes out (and what his bat does in 2026). The Pipeline There are players in the Blue Jays’ system that may one day see time at the major league level, but at this point in the offseason, it would come as a shock if any of these were impact names in 2026. Where applicable, I will be using FanGraphs’ projected ETA to the majors from their most recent prospect list, and Jays Centre’s top prospect list for each player’s ranking within the organization. JoJo Parker: 2025 first-round pick, #2 prospect, ETA 2030 Arjun Nimmala: 2023 first-round pick, #3 prospect, ETA 2028 Juan Sanchez: 2024 amateur signing, #10 prospect, ETA 2031 Josh Kasevich: 2022 second-round pick, #11 prospect, ETA 2027 Charles McAdoo: 2023 13th-round pick, acquired via trade, #14 prospect, ETA 2027 It is always a balancing act with prospects between the potential future and the win-now window the Blue Jays are certainly in. While it would be interesting to consider a 2029 middle infield of McAdoo and Nimmala, the likelihood of any of the guys on that list switching positions (or organizations) before making their MLB debuts is not outside the realm of possibility. Addison Barger came up through the minors starting out as a middle infielder before settling into the 3B/RF role he occupies now. All of this to say, hold your prospects lightly. View the full article

To the surprise of many, the Boston Red Sox went out and acquired another starting pitcher in Johan Oviedo, deemed to be more of a project than the previously-acquired Sonny Gray. With 12 years of big league experience, Gray has significantly more predictability in the results department. Fans may look at Oviedo’s last full season with puzzlement, seeing a 4.31 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 177 2/3 IP. I am not here to convince you that a 4.31 ERA is anything to write home about, but what I will say is that his fastball and the movement he can generate raise his ceiling significantly. His fastball is by far his most lively offering. Our own @Nick John spoke of its effectiveness saying, The cause of these fantastic numbers is why the Red Sox have sought out Oveido’s services in 2026, and it's why Craig Breslow believes he can be an impact starter; that fastball has a chance to be special. When checking out Oviedo’s FanGraphs page, you can see a significant jump in his Stuff+ metric and specifically on his fastball. In his last season before Tommy John surgery, Oviedo’s fastball was graded as a well-below-average pitch with a Stuff+ of 82. In 2025, that number jumped an unprecedented 33 points to a Stuff+ grade of 115. Thanks to @TJstats on Twitter, we can get an in-depth look and visual of why Oviedo’s fastball gave hitters problems in 2025. We can see here that Oviedo’s motion creates a unique profile of release height (hRel) and extension (Ext.), and according to Baseball Savant, his 7.4 feet of extension was in the 98th percentile in MLB. With those specific metrics, it creates one of the most unique fastball profiles in baseball. With a low release point, fastballs will typically run more horizontally than his does. Think of former Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale. Sale’s release height is .1 feet higher than Oviedo’s, and yet, Sale’s fastball runs 10 inches more than Oviedo’s (15 v. 5.6). Hitters go in expecting this movement as well, and as a result, this creates an effective fastball. Oviedo raised his release height from 2.5 feet to 3.1 feet and, in turn, increased his swinging strike rate from 7% to 10.2% You can see the release height increase visualized here: One concept breaking into the mainstream is Induced Vertical Break (iVB). What iVB attempts to do is take gravity out of the equation to determine how well a pitch can combat the effects of gravity and stay up. This used to be looked at publicly through spin rate; if a pitcher’s spin was high, then the fastball would have apparent “rise.” This can now be articulated through iVB — the higher it is (on fastballs), the better chance hitters have to swing underneath the pitch. Now, Oviedo’s iVB at face value is a below-average level offering, only 15.4 inches, which is -0.6 inches below the average. For comparison, the leader in iVB is Alex Vesia with 20.9 inches. But because of the combination of release point, arm angle, and iVB, Oviedo was able to increase his fastball K% from 16.1% all the way to 30.9%. His seam manipulation has caused significantly less run to the arm side, and it’s staying up far longer than opposing hitters expect. Below, his 2023 fastball (left, red) compared to his 2025 fastball (right, red). In 2023, Oviedo had a fastball that was well below average in terms of rise, as indicated by the shaded circle on the graph. By 2025, he was right at, if not above, league average with his fastball. Because of this sudden rise and hitters swinging underneath the fastball thanks to the uncanny iVB, his fastball’s fly-ball rate shot up from 25.4% to 58.1%, its zone contact percentage went from 90.2% down to 75.7%, and opposing hitters posted a mere .638 OPS against it. dnZiVldfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkFOVVhBSUdVd29BVzFzQ1hnQUhWdzRBQUFNTlVBVUFDd2RXQVFZSFV3VlhWUUFE.mp4 There’s a reason Craig Breslow said, At this point, Breslow and Andrew Bailey have done enough to prove that they can identify potential, and with Oviedo, there is a clear foundation of potential at the individual pitch level. Of course, one glaring issue is the walk problem. Oviedo had a walk rate of 13.5% and has never had a rate below 8.9% in his whole career. It does not matter how nasty of a pitch ball four is. But beyond that, the prospect of what Johan Oviedo could be is very exciting, and the prospect package was nothing significant for what could be a solid fourth or fifth option in the Red Sox's rotation. This certainly can’t be the final move for the pitching staff this offseason, but it’s great to see the front office take advantage of farm depth to improve the 26-man roster in two consecutive weeks. View the full article

On Sunday, the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee voted Jeff Kent into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. An extraordinary offensive second baseman best remembered for his tenure with the San Francisco Giants, Kent was a late-bloomer—each of the top nine seasons of his career in terms of fWAR came between ages 29 and 37. This was his first opportunity to be evaluated by the committee after having fallen off the writers' ballot three years earlier. Prior to the announcement, there had been rumblings from the baseball media that former Miami Marlins manger Don Mattingly was well-positioned to get the nod. Mattingly was the best first baseman in Major League Baseball during his first four full seasons (1985-1988). Unfortunately, back problems shortened his peak and he retired at the relatively young age of 34. In parts of 14 MLB seasons, "Donnie Baseball" slashed .307/.358/.471 with 222 home runs, 14 stolen bases and 40.7 fWAR. The six-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove Award winner spent his entire career with the New York Yankees. Alas, Mattingly ultimately received only half of the votes needed for election. Another former Fish, first baseman Carlos Delgado, actually came closer to garnering the necessary support. The other candidates who had their cases reviewed were Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Dale Murphy, Gary Sheffield and Fernando Valenzuela. In winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4 with his fourth home run of the season. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-4. During a doubleheader, Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 3-for-6 with a walk while Orlando Ortiz-Mayr pitched solidly en route to a no-decision (4.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K). Berry's .452 on-base percentage would rank second in the Puerto Rican Winter League if he had enough playing time to qualify. Only 108 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 The Winter Meetings are underway and Fish On First has two credentialed reporters there this year: Isaac Azout and Kevin Barral. They'll have thorough coverage today as Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and Marlins manager Clayton McCullough are each scheduled to speak with the media. 🔷 While making his trip north, Kevin stopped at the Marlins' spring training facility to provide updates on the ongoing construction. 🔷 Insiders from The Athletic, ESPN and USA Today each have different interpretations of Sandy Alcantara's availability on the trade market. Personally, I would be shocked if he's moved this offseason. 🔷 Now that the Marlins have reduced their 40-man roster count to 39, here is another plug for last month's list of notable Rule 5 draft possibilities for the Marlins. The draft takes place on Wednesday. 🔷 Last week, Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida launched a sponsorship of the FOF podcast! They offer Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. With Christmas and New Year’s around the corner, boats fill up fast—everyone wants that view of the fireworks from the water. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online. 🔷 Speaking of podcasts, congratulations to Jeremiah Geiger on surpassing 200 episodes as host of Locked On Marlins. View the full article

After his breakout 2025 season, Kody Clemens appears to be the Twins’ presumptive starting first baseman in 2026. While there's good reason to believe he can continue to produce, the team would be better off if he were pushed into a utility role. Clemens had a lackluster career before the Phillies traded him to the Twins for cash in April. He had a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate, without the requisite power to make up for them. To make matters worse, he was 29 years old, so there wasn't much reason to expect a turnaround. Yet, the son of one of the game's greatest pitchers became a bright spot in an ugly season for Minnesota. Why Clemens Can Continue to Rake Clemens improved his walk rate a bit, but the main change that drove his improvement was a 2-mph increase in bat speed, which took him from below-average to average. Swinging harder led to upticks in his Barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and other batted-ball quality metrics. These metrics show that his production was not a fluke, and there's a chance he can replicate it. Notably, his .331 xwOBA was above-average, outpacing his actual results, suggesting some positive regression to come. It's easy to understand why Clemens is a big part of the Twins' vision for 2026. Beyond the offense, he was also an excellent defender at first base—and has been throughout his career, making it even more sensible for him to take over the position. In the best-case scenario for the team, though, he would occupy a smaller role. Red Flags in the Second Half While Clemens had the best year of his career in 2025, there were some negatives in it. For one, while the metrics suggest his performance is sustainable, he dropped off in the second half. It's possible that the chaotic trade deadline impacted him. He was atrocious in August, right after the deadline, indicating that that theory may have some merit. Beyond the raw numbers falling, he also saw his hard-hit rate dip in the second half, which is a real cause for concern. In addition to his poor second half, Clemens is also a player with as steep a dropoff against same-sided pitching as you'll see. Put simply, he cannot hit lefties at all. This limitation will force Derek Shelton to pinch-hit for him early in games, leading to whoever his platoon partner is at first being burned early and having to face a nasty righty later in the game. Given his second-half struggles and inability to hit left-handed pitchers, planning on Clemens at first base should not be the plan. The Right Role for Clemens As you'd imagine, a 29-year-old journeyman whom the Twins got in exchange for cash has limitations. But that doesn't mean he can't be a helpful player as they try to improve on their mess of a 2025. Clemens can hit righties for power, and his batted-ball data indicates that will continue. He can also defend at an average or better level at first, in the corner outfield spots, and at second base. The Twins should put him in a position to succeed by making the necessary roster moves to have him serve as a utility man. That means adding a first baseman, whether through free agency or trade. Doing so will allow Clemens to thrive and take pressure off him to keep hitting in 2026. The new first baseman would slot into the middle of the lineup, and Clemens could move to the bottom third. Beyond that, should Clemens continue to hit, he can slot in at second or left field, should Alan Roden or Luke Keaschall struggle. As we've seen with Willi Castro, a utility man who can hit is very valuable for a team. Their presence maximizes everybody else’s impact. That's the role that Clemens should be in, rather than being one of the league's worst-hitting first basemen. Would you like to see Kody Clemens as a first baseman, utility man, or something else for Minnesota in 2026? View the full article

Although Ebenezer Scrooge-level labor strife looms less than one year from now, MLB's championship-caliber teams (like the Toronto Blue Jays) have lifted the spirits of their fanbase with early signings of Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce. Ever so briefly, Cubs fans felt the same surge of warmth in their breasts—thanks (or not, as it turned out) to an erroneous report from Bob Nightengale that the Cubs had signed erstwhile Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen. It's a moot point, but some instantly felt as though the price for Gallen was a bit too high. Or is it? It's no secret that Jed Hoyer, Carter Hawkins and their staff are seeking a new ace for the top of their rotation, and they have their sights set on hurlers like Michael King, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suárez—in addition, of course, to Gallen. While rumors of what other NL Central squads might do swirl like flakes in a snow globe, Hoyer has a real opportunity to once again position his organization as a perennial World Series threat. Being one of the 29 teams that falls short of baseball's ultimate prize creates the perception that there is less to work with than there really is. The team can and will move away from players like Matthew Boyd, who not only vastly overachieved in 2025, but will be bearing the weight of extra work in his role with Team USA in the forthcoming World Baseball Classic. Waiting in the wings are the likes of Jaxon Wiggins, the towering righty projected to join the squad before the sweltering days of a Wrigley summer arrive. Landing one of those top-flight arms will be important to a team with big dreams for 2026, but their floor is steadily rising each year. Thanks to a media slip-up, we arrived prematurely at one of the North Siders' major offseason destinations. Their approach to this Winter Meetings figures to provide the evidence that diehard fans have been seeking for some time now, that their club seeks to reclaim its view from the top. If you're like me, you've wanted a reason to dive back into the world of Major League Baseball, counting down the days until balls and strikes are once again the currency of our hopes and dreams. In no small way, the Winter Meetings will start showing us just how much there is to hope for. View the full article

Because I’m a proud Zoomer and enjoy doomscrolling, I spend a good amount of time on the “For You” section of my Twitter feed. It’s primarily AI shilling and rabid opinions on sports, but like a bag of jelly beans, every so often, something good shows up in the middle of the gooey multi-colored mess. Recently, it was this tweet by Eno Sarris, a writer for The Athletic: Of course, as a casual fan, this came as something of a surprise. I knew that ERA was far from the only number needed to tell the story of a pitcher's performance, but the idea of disregarding it completely was foreign to me. Describing it as the “batting average of pitching” seemed like a step too far, but this offseason, I’ve noticed more evidence to back up Sarris’s claims. To me, the biggest indicator that ERA has fallen by the wayside as a useful statistic is the way that teams have spent money on pitchers so far this offseason. Here are the five largest pitching free-agent contracts that have been signed so far, and the ERAs for those players last season. Player # of Years Total Contract Value 2025 ERA Dylan Cease 7 $210 million 4.55 Devin Williams 3 $51 million 4.79 Cody Ponce 3 $30 million 1.89 (KBO) Ryan Helsley 2 $28 million 4.50 Emilio Pagan 2 $20 million 2.88 It is admittedly early in the offseason, but there is a clear pattern here. Regardless of where the total values of these contracts end up relative to their peers, many of these are sizable financial commitments. A $30 million AAV for seven years is nothing to sneeze at, and an AAV of $17 million over three years for a reliever with an ERA close to 5.00 is mind-boggling. But things start to come into focus when we look at more advanced stats like FIP, K/BB, and Skill-interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA). Player FIP K/BB SIERA Dylan Cease 3.56 3.03 3.58 Devin Williams 2.68 3.60 2.67 Cody Ponce (KBO) 2.15 6.15 N/A Ryan Helsley 4.14 2.52 3.68 Emilio Pagan 3.72 3.68 3.18 2025 MLB Average 4.16 2.64 4.06 For the most part, this select group of five pitchers looks far more impressive when comparing their advanced metrics to the league average. (Cody Ponce is an obvious exception, but the difficulty of translating his numbers in the Korean Baseball Organization to the American majors only underscores that teams are paying for something other than those surface-level stats.) Dylan Cease and Devin Williams, in particular, become far more appealing when ignoring their lackluster ERAs. It’s also why these two players have drastically different WAR figures based on where you look. Cease has an rWAR of just 1.1, but an fWAR of 3.4, while Williams has an rWAR of -0.3 and an fWAR of 1.4. Those disparities stem from the fact that pitching rWAR is based on runs allowed, while fWAR is based on FIP. Using a collection of advanced metrics paints a far more complete picture of a pitcher’s abilities because, like the slew of hitting metrics we now use instead of batting average to evaluate a hitter, a single number can only tell one part of the story—and in the case of ERA, as with batting average, it's a small and sometimes misleading fragment. Many supporters of ERA claim that its strength is that it tells you what happened, while FIP is a black box of confusing underlying numbers that are more predictive than descriptive. To me, this is more often the result of a misunderstanding of what FIP represents than anything else, because anyone familiar with the formula would notice that it, too, is descriptive. It’s calculated with actual numbers. Tom Tango has a good article discussing ERA's ability to predict itself in the short and medium term, and a significant contributing factor that limits its effectiveness is random variation from sequencing. Giving up a single hit each inning for five innings would result in a far lower ERA than giving up five hits in a single inning, followed by four perfect frames. By solely considering factors under the pitcher’s control, FIP helps remove a lot of noise from defensive miscues, and even the subjectivity of what is considered an earned run. SIERA takes this to the next level, factoring in batted-ball events without the outcome (e.g., hit or out). Instead, this ugly formula simply weighs ground balls, fly balls, and pop-ups to arrive at a number that’s similar to FIP, but with more positive bias toward pitchers who can induce soft contact. Strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty straightforward, but some might be curious as to why the percentages aren’t separated. That’s because they do work together. A pitcher with a 40% strikeout rate seems far less effective if he also had a 15% walk rate. A pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate seems average, but could be elevated to elite with a 5% walk rate. Ultimately, strikeouts and walks seek to measure a pitcher’s ability to command the strike zone. Each individual metric still holds merit, but none carries enough context to serve as a high-level indicator without the other. How does this affect the Brewers? As many of you already know, Milwaukee is one of the more analytically-minded big-league teams, and this shift in perspective has been a part of their strategy for a while now. It’s the reason why certain arms like Nick Mears and Trevor Megill seemed to take massive steps forward after arriving in Milwaukee. Mears had a 5.56 ERA but a 2.61 FIP with the Rockies before he was traded to the Brewers. In his final season with the Twins, Megill had a 4.80 ERA with a 3.29 FIP. Still, this is just one layer of the onion of pitcher evaluation. What makes Milwaukee great is that they also know how to dig into the deeper layers, and can identify whether a pitcher like Quinn Priester or Grant Anderson is on the cusp of greatness even if their advanced metrics still don’t make it obvious. Few teams center their evaluations even on FIP or similar metrics, these days. Instead, they have proprietary ways to measure and weigh pitch quality, biomechanical indicators, and opportunities for improvement via development. If the Brewers look to acquire more pitching depth this offseason (or even if they decide to elevate some of their internal options to bigger roles), keep an eye out for arms that are more appealing under the hood. Milwaukee’s front office has a demonstrated history of finding undervalued assets and maximizing their upside, so if and when they end up making a move, try to look a little deeper than the ERA—and give the old “Advanced” section on FanGraphs a quick peek. View the full article

On Sunday morning, Jaylon Thompson, Royals beat writer for the Kansas City Star, mentioned that the Royals are reportedly interested in reuniting with outfielder Mike Yastrzemski and utility player Adam Frazier. Both players were acquired in trades last season, with Frazier being acquired at the All-Star Break and Yastrzemski at the Trade Deadline. Here's what Thompson said about Yastrzemski and Frazier coming back in his piece, essentially a Royals Winter Meetings Preview on the KC Star. Frazier played with the Royals in 2024 and was a key member of a squad that made it to the ALDS. While he only posted a 65 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR in 294 plate appearances, he seemed to be a leader in the clubhouse and helped mentor many of the young hitters on the Royals roster. He was much better in his return to Kansas City in 2025, as evidenced by a 98 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR in 197 plate appearances. Yastrzemski would be the more impactful acquisition of the pair. As mentioned in Thompson's piece, he hit nine home runs in 50 games, and he also posted a 127 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR in 186 plate appearances. The former San Francisco Giant can also play all three outfield positions and brings a disciplined approach to the plate. He posted a 1.14 BB/K ratio in his tenure with the Royals last season. Yastrzemski will likely be looking for a multi-year deal, which may be tough for Kansas City to offer, considering Yastrzemski will be 36 years old in August. He is also limited in terms of splits, as he has a career .211 average and a 79 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. In addition to Frazier and Yastrzemski, Thompson mentioned outfielders Austin Hays and Harrison Bader as free-agent options, and Luis Robert Jr. as a trade option the Royals could pursue this week in Orlando during the meetings. It was not reported whether the Royals have spoken with those players or if they are just seen as possible fits given Kansas City's offensive needs for 2026. Photo Credit: © David Richard-Imagn Images View the full article

The Chicago Cubs are looking for a big bat to man the hot corner. After recently being tied to Alex Bregman, it sounds like they're also kicking the tires on another third baseman slugger. Francys Romero is reporting that the Chicago Cubs are interested in free agent third baseman Eugenio Suarez. With the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners, Suarez logged 49 home runs and scored 91 runs. He carried a .824 OPS and a .347 wOBA, resulting in a 125 wRC+. Defensively at third base, Suarez accumulated a -6 mark in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -3 in Outs Above Average (OAA). At 34 years old, MLBTR predicts Suarez to net $68 million over three years. Do you think the Cubs should pursue the aging slugger? Let's know in the comments! View the full article

Derek Falvey is clearly reluctant to lose a player that could even potentially be an asset for nothing. It seems like each season, we can find examples of the front office being slow to cut bait with guys who seem incapable of contributing to wins. In 2023, it was Joey Gallo taking at bats from guys like Matt Wallner. The following season, it was Manuel Margot who got inexplicable at bats despite being objectively terrible the entire season. On the pitching front, they traded for Jorge Lopez in 2023 and he was…not good, but stuck around too long. The following year, Trevor Richards was the lone trade acquisition during the season. There was no reason to believe he would be good, and he wasn’t. The latest iteration of this trend is likely to be their handling of James Outman, who they traded Brock Stewart for in the July selloff, and who is out of options. If one assumes that Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are still on the team in April, and that Austin Martin showed enough down the stretch to earn a roster spot, then it seems that there is one outfield position remaining until Emmanual Rodriguez or Walker Jenkins are ready to claim it. That last spot will likely be a battle between James Outman and Alan Roden . If history says anything about the future, then Outman is likely to prevail despite being the worse candidate, simply on the merits of being out of options and having more experience. Let’s look at the two players. James Outman Outman, frankly, seems in danger of washing out. In 2023, his first full season, he was worth 3.9 fWAR. That season, he did everything, a lot of it pretty well. He was a plus defender, playing a legitimate center field. He stole 16 bags, hit 23 home runs, and walked 12% of the time. He seemed to be the Dodgers' center fielder of the future. That is, unless you looked under the hood and realized his hitting might be a mirage. He did a great job of pulling the ball in the air, and that was the primary driver of his offensive prowess. In fact, his launch angle sweet spot rate was in the 89th percentile that season. But, his overall hard-hit rate was below average, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile, and he swung through too many pitches, leading to a lot of strikeouts. Those are all yellow flags at best, as he didn’t make enough contact for the pulled balls to carry his offensive game. Then, starting in 2024, Outman seemingly forgot how to play baseball entirely. Over the past two seasons, he has put up roughly 50% of the production of an average hitter, has stolen a combined three bases, and hit just 10 homers. He’s been a subpar defender despite spending almost as much time in the corners as in center, and has performed poorly in high-leverage situations. His walk rate is down by a third, as well. Looking at his underlying metrics, he has started chasing more, and has lost a bit of bat speed. His strikeout rate has elevated from a quite high 31.9% in 2023 to an untenable 42.6% in 2025. Making matters even worse, the quality of his contact has dropped markedly. Rather than pulling the ball in the air, he’s been pulling it on the ground, which almost always leads to an out. In short, he’s been a mess. Outman, unlike Roden, does not have age on his side. 2026 will be his age-29 season, and it’s fair to expect some natural decline in the speed and athleticism-related parts of his game. So, if he’s not hitting, not taking walks, not running, and not defending well, then what utility does he offer the Twins? Seriously, I’m asking you, because I can’t find any. Realistically, it doesn’t seem like the Twins should have traded for Outman in the first place. Knowing their surplus of left-handed outfielders, and the pyrrhic nature of his one good season, it didn’t seem like a good fit at the time. Of course, Stewart immediately got injured, so it may be one of those lose-lose trades. However, the trade itself is a sunk cost. Any investment in Outman at this point is not; it will come at the expense of playing time or a roster spot for younger, better, and higher-upside players. Alan Roden Alan Roden, headed into the 2025 season, was ranked the Blue Jays' number five prospect by MLB Pipeline. He had gained significant helium on the strength of a monster 2024 season in which he walked almost as much as he struck out, and had a .314/.406/.510/.916 slash line with Triple-A Buffalo. When the Twins made the unpopular decision to trade Louis Varland for Roden and Kendry Rojas , FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Roden the sixth-best prospect moved at the deadline. He wrote, of Roden, “Recent rookie graduate with plus contact skills, but less power than is ideal for a corner outfielder. Big league-ready platoon bat.” While he didn’t quite impress in his first taste of big league action, he was roughly a replacement-level player, worth -0.1 fWAR. The former third-round pick was limited to just 153 plate appearances before injuring his hand and ending his season. His walk rate was half his career norm, and his strikeout rate was nearly double. However, there’s almost always an adjustment period for prospects as they get used to major league pitching, particularly with the adjustment from an automated strike zone to a manual one. Roden very much has a bright future once he learns to hit Major League pitching, and it’s a fairly safe bet he will, since he has hit at every level of the minors. That may happen sooner rather than later. His batting average on balls in play was an unsustainably low .240 in his small 2025 sample, so positive regression should occur once he learns the zone and is able to make higher-quality contact. At this point, Roden really doesn’t have much to prove at Triple-A. And yet, he seems an odds-on favorite to begin the season there in favor of James Outman. You know why? He can still be optioned, and that probably means he will be. Hopefully, Derek Falvey has learned from the mistakes made in past seasons and will be quicker to move on from a player that doesn’t have much to offer in favor of a younger one who has plenty of projectability. And hopefully, that move happens in spring training, if not sooner. View the full article