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FanGraphs pleasantly surprised some Twins fans recently, projecting the troubled squad to finish 82-80 in 2026, thanks to their (for now) sturdy rotation depth. Also surprising was an addendum to the projection, however, calling out Marcus Otto, a Twins season-ticket holder, for a litany of issues—including his in-game dietary choices. “Marcus Otto of Maplewood: You will regret your next order of helmet nachos,” it read. “Consider a healthier choice, or (at minimum) sharing the order with friends and family.” Otto was perplexed. “Why are they targeting me?” asked the 42-year-old IT professional. “Is this a common thing that FanGraphs does?” It isn’t. This appears to be the first time in the history of FanGraphs where they’ve dedicated a projection to a non-player. Representatives were unavailable for comment on the 1,300-word analysis, which departed from traditional stats, graphs, and metrics and drilled down instead on Otto’s gastrointestinal challenges and physical appearance. “You know what dairy does to your system, Marcus,” said one section entitled Pete Rose Was the Hit King. Marcus Otto Is the Fart King. “Think about the people sitting next to you. Think about how you’re just pouring yourself into those size-34 jeans. Just get a small popcorn and a water, for God’s sake.” Otto admits that he could eat better, but is dumbfounded why it’s the business of a sports analytics service. “I’ve been making better food choices,” said Otto. “Why is FanGraphs singling me out and being so mean about it?” In the section entitled This is Why Jennifer Left You, Marcus, the analysis gets into Otto’s personal life. “Do you think horfing down cheese-drenched nachos in public is a good look, Marcus?” asked FanGraphs. “What if you end up on the JumboTron, practically unhinging your jaw to cram more sour cream into your gaping maw? Jennifer is never coming back, Marcus.” The Jennifer in question is Jennifer Edwards, Otto’s longtime girlfriend, who ended their relationship in April of this year. She declined to be interviewed for this story. The tone of the piece implies that FanGraphs wants the best for Otto, but the level of insistence and intrusion by the hivemind appears to have stirred the UW-River Falls alumnus's defensiveness, rather than his drive for self-improvement. “How does FanGraphs know I had a girlfriend?” asked Otto. “How do they know we broke up? Why did they send a press release to every media outlet in the Twin Cities with this analysis and the title ‘What to Expect from Lonely Pervert and Nacho Enthusiast Marcus Otto in 2026?’ “It even had a postscript that gave my home address and said if they had any trouble finding it to just follow the closest Domino’s delivery driver. I don’t even order Domino’s that often. This is incredibly hurtful.” Image license here. View the full article

Seam-shifted wake has been a hot topic for baseball nerds over the last few years. Thanks to rapid advancements in the quality of pitch-tracking information, we can now quantify this movement, in addition to the spin-related movement of a pitch. These two types of movement are also known as Magnus movement (spin-related movement) and non-Magnus movement (aka seam position-related movement). The name comes from Heinrich Gustav Magnus, who concluded that when a spinning ball moves through the air, it creates a force that makes it curve away from its straight-line path. The spin changes the amount of friction the air can impart on the ball, and thus alters the effect it has on the ball's flight, relative to what the flow of air across a non-spinning surface would have. Magnus movement is everywhere in sports—especially in baseball. A curveball has topspin, causing the ball to bite downward, while a four-seam fastball has backspin that helps the ball resist gravity and gives the appearance (to a hitter) of rising action. The best example, perhaps, is this YouTube video demonstrating how a basketball (which doesn't have the same raised seams as a baseball, and therefore doesn't have the same non-Magnus effect) reacts when dropped off a dam with no spin, and then with backspin: There are some variables here that don't apply to baseball, but it's perfect for showing one thing: spin affects how a ball moves. Baseballs are vastly different than basketballs, though, because of those seams. While spinning a ball alters how a pitch moves by reducing its friction with the air around it, the baseball's seams increase how the air can affect the ball. A perfectly round object would not encounter any seam-shifted wake, but the protruding seams create an alternative force on the ball in addition to its spin, and often in a different direction. In baseball history, many pitchers have attempted to scuff balls or spit on them to gain some unexpected movement on their pitches, so the existence of this movement is not a new phenomenon, but modern pitchers have found ways to capitalize on the seam position to devastating effect. The reason for this non-Magnus movement (or seam-shifted wake) being so useful is that hitters have no way to see what's coming, unless they've faced that pitch before. While hitters have been trained to identify spin to anticipate the pitch that's been thrown and anticipate how it will move, accounting for non-Magnus movement is a whole different problem. Aaron Ashby is a prime example. He has one of the straightest four-seam fastballs in the game, struggling to generate the riding life that usually defines that offering. However, he boasts one of the best sinkers in the game, with extremely heavy action. The interesting thing is that the spin-based movement (on the left) of his four-seam fastball (red) and his sinker (orange) is not dissimilar. Where he excels is in how he uses the seams to generate up to 10 inches of additional horizontal break and 5-8 inches of vertical drop when he throws a sinker, compared with expectation. This partially explains why hitters struggle to pick up Ashby's four-seam fastball on the rare occasions when he does use it, and why they have a ground ball rate of 65% against it. The ball just keeps dropping on them, in ways that their spin-trained eyes don't expect. You can see from Ashby's profile that he gets a lot of "unexpected movement" on his slider, sinker and changeup, all three of which had above-average swing-and-miss rates for their pitch category and all of which avoided extra-base hits exceptionally well. The unexpected nature of seam position-based movement may be a source for Ashby's persistent command issues, as this is much less repeatable and controllable than spinning the baseball, but the movement he generates is above-average because of seam-shifted wake. One other Brewers pitcher with even more extreme seam-shifted wake control is Quinn Priester. Before coming to the Brewers, the scouting report on Priester was that he had a fringy sinker that had never really performed, and the total movement he generated was nothing to write home about. However, when you factor in his arm angle, spin rate and seam-shifted wake factors, his profile jumps off the page—particularly thanks to his cutter and his sinker. Like Ashby, Priester is getting 6-8 inches of vertical drop on his sinker, relative to what the hitter expects, as well as almost 10 inches of horizontal break. His cutter is moving the other way, riding and breaking in on left-handed hitters with a spin direction that has some crossover with his sinker, making it difficult to differentiate the two pitches based on spin alone. Seam-shifted wake plays up far better when the spin directions of two offerings match or mirror each other, while the non-Magnus effect takes them in different directions out of the hand. Ashby's four-seam fastball and his slider, despite similar non-Magnus effects, would not get mistaken for each other out of the pitcher's hand. Another, better example is how you can see with both Ashby and Priester that the changeup closely resembles their primary fastballs. Not so with Freddy Peralta, whose changeup spins slightly differently from his primary fastball, which makes it easier to recognize and thus lay off. One of Peralta's biggest problems is that none of his pitches resemble his fastball in how they spin. He can get fantastic grades for his raw stuff with the fastball, but its lack of deception out of his hand means he is fighting an uphill battle with his primary offering. He fools hitters with angles and good repetition of his delivery, rather than with spin or non-spin movement. Some pitchers are very spin-oriented. Jacob Misiorowski is a prime example, generating nearly all of his movement from the spin profile. He's heavily reliant on his raw velocity and stuff to keep hitters off-balance: For most pitchers, though, manipulating the seams is part of generating movement that the batter can't readily anticipate and neutralize. Seam-shifted wake has a massive impact on how a pitcher can continue to get uncomfortable swings, the more so when two pitches move differently due to seam position while having comparable spin directions. Ashby and Priester use this to devastating effect, and it's been a major part of pitcher development programs for years. The concept isn't new—many changeups, sinkers, cutters and some versions of the slider have relied on seam-shifted wake for decades. Now, though, we can measure it, train it, and talk about it much more readily, because technology has caught up to the craft of pitching. Pitchers are better than ever throughout the major leagues, and it's not just because there hasn't been an expansion to stretch the league's pitching staffs thinner in over 25 years. Hurlers make better use of technology, and are learning how to not only harness both spin- and seam position-based movement, but use them in concert. Better measurement and understanding of these effects has been a game-changer, and it will continue to play a major role in pitching development and instruction for years to come. View the full article

For many consumers Black Friday and Cyber Monday signal the time period in which it is time to "shop until you drop", buying holiday gifts and presents for the people we find important in our life. While MLB team's don't have a Black Friday discount sale, they do have their own version of a spend-a-thon, and it's during the annual Winter Meetings. Every year, teams, agents and players gather for a few days in December, and because of the proximity to each other, many of the year's biggest free-agent deals and trades are consummated at this event. Last year, for example, Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets on the largest contract in professional sports history while in Dallas for the 2024 version of the Winter Meetings. Though that won't happen again, what this means is that the Chicago Cubs will likely take part in some of this action next week. What, then, should we expect from the North Siders? When: Monday, December 8th - Wednesday December 10th Where: Orlando, Florida Great news for anyone (like myself) who lives on the East Coast! Trades, signings and the like sometimes break at late hours during the Winter Meetings, and in years' past, when they have been held out West, it wasn't uncommon to wake up to breaking news. Just last year, the news that the Cubs signed starting pitcher Matthew Boyd broke at 3:21 am EST. So, while we shouldn't expect the action to entirely die down at night, we're probably in for a slightly-less-late new cycle than when they meetings have been held in San Diego or Dallas. Monday and Tuesday will be full of rumors, and Wednesday will have its' fair share of smoke, it will also be the day of the league's annual Rule 5 Draft, in which teams will begin to fill out their 40-man-rosters from other team's minor-league ranks. Not all is lost after Wednesday, as a slew of moves will happen afterwards, with the groundwork for them being laid over the course of the previous few days. A good example of this: the Cubs' eventual trade for Astros' outfielder Kyle Tucker, which happened shortly after the close of last year's Winter Meetings. How should you follow the action? Social media is your best friend and worst enemy for this. If you know who to follow and listen to (either on X/Twitter, BlueSky or YouTube) you can be among the first of your friends to break the news that something went down. Any of the big names, such as Jon Heyman, Jeff Passan, Jon Morosi, or Ken Rosenthal can be highly trusted to post the truth (Bob Nightengale of USA Today is a little more hit-and-miss than others). Some of the more local outlets that can be trusted include Brett Taylor and Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation (and, if you're looking for non-Cub sources, every team has their own version of Bleacher Nation!), Jesse Rogers, Dave Kaplan or Bruce Levine. Be careful out there, however. Smaller accounts with low follower counts could simply be clout-chasing for clicks or trying to purposefully deceive. A good rule of thumb: always look to see who's following these accounts. Do they have anyone you've heard of following them? No? Best to read things with a heavy hand of "skepticism" then. It's a fun time. Rumors are going to fly fast. Just be careful — some of the hardest to spot are the fakes who are just a letter or so different in their screen name from someone you really trust. Just be cognizant and keep an eye out for the false flags, but have fun following the flow of rumors, too. What are the Cubs going to do with their rotation? There's a good chance that the Cubs will look to solve the hole in their starting rotation during these four days. While it seems unlikely that Japanese star pitcher Tatsuya Imai will sign during the Meetings, most of the rest of the starting pitching market is likely to heat up now that Dylan Cease has set the market. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King and others who may be on the Cubs' radar will likely come off the board soon. Some have fear with how much the team is willing to spend regarding a recent handful of cost-cutting measures over at Marquee Sports Network, also owned by the Cubs' ownership group, but those fears are just that: fears (as of now). If these fears are a reality, it may push the Cubs into a trade-scenario where they look into cost-controlled starting pitching such as the Miami Marlin's Edward Cabrera or the Washington Nationals' MacKenzie Gore. A trade may not fully materialize at the Meetings, instead taking a day or two beyond Orlando to complete (like their trade last offseason), so it may be a few days before we see the fruits of their efforts on this front come to fruition. Don't be entirely shocked to hear at least one crazy report connecting the Cubs to someone like Tarik Skubal, either. While it's far-fetched and the price would be astronomical, there are those who speculate he could be available a year prior to hitting his own free agency. Could the Cubs enter this sweepstakes? Absolutely, even if it's unlikely. The Cubs still need to fill out a bullpen, but who will they get? The team jumped pretty quickly into the reliever market, nabbing righty Phil Maton a few days ago on a two-year deal, but the Cubs are clearly not done filling out their thing bullpen. While they were connected to Ryan Helsley, he signed with Baltimore over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and reliever-ace Devin Williams is now off the board, taking his talents to the Big Apple, so the team is going to have to look elsewhere for help. A few names to follow in the back--of-their-pen search could be the Tampa Bay Rays' Pete Fairbanks, the San Diego Padres' Robert Suarez, or a reunion with Brad Keller. All three would require more than one year, but all three would add velocity and whiffs to a pen that needs it. Don't think the Cubs will only be looking for high-leverage help, though. Chicago needs to fill out their entire bullpen depth chart. They will probably look at some mid-level pitchers (i.e. Kyle Finnegan, Luke Weaver, etc), some left-handed pitchers to replace outgoing Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz, and some sleeper names, like reuniting with Mark Leiter Jr. or signing Evan Phillips, who is recovering from an injury and won't be ready until mid-year. When it comes to the relief market, I would assume anyone could be a fit. The Rule 5 Draft on Wednesday will also give the Cubs an opportunity to find some diamond-in-the-rough types as they look to round things out. In 2025, the Cubs selected Gage Workman, an infielder from Detroit, during this event. That did not work out for the team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them find an arm they think they can mold into a useful bullpen piece. Are the Cubs looking to add to their offense? The Cubs are almost assuredly going to say goodbye to outfielder Kyle Tucker. The team does not seem interested in matching the free agent's price tag and instead appears happy to recoup the compensation pick. With young hitters Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros in the fold, as well, they seem poised to let the rookies take the designated hitter spot and run with it. That said, if the Cubs decide to go the trade route (moving, for example, Caissie in a trade for Cabrera) and move one, or both of their young hitters, could they find common ground with, say, Kyle Schwarber and bring the lefty home? Stranger things have happened! More than likely, however, the team will look into finding a Justin Turner replacement. Turner did post a 112 wRC+ against southpaws, but most would agree that his season left plenty on the table, and an upgrade would be in order. If the Cubs want another veteran, Paul Goldschmidt could make sense in this role. The team could also look to the IFA market, with two Japanese stars, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, highlighting the class. Both offer power potential and the ability to play some first and third base. Neither projects as purely platoon options, and both would require commitments that appear to be well north of $15 million per year. Is the team looking to find someone who's capable of displacing Caissie or Ballesteros as their primary DH? Korean Infielder Sung-Min Song could be another intriguing IFA for the team. Song does not look to be as in-demand as his two Japanese counterparts, but offers a better glove and some surprising pop. The lefty wouldn't solve the team's platoon issue, but could add a fun option off the bench. The Winter Meetings will be a time in which, at least, some of these questions are going to be answered, but don't expect them all to be solved. Regardless of what happens, the Cubs will likely make a move or two. Matthew Boyd was signed last year and the framework for Kyle Tucker laid. Will this be as fruitful of a year? For the Cubs' sake, hopefully — the team cannot rest on their laurels and squander the 2026 season coming off a 92-win year. The time to add and improve is now. What do you think the Cubs will do during the Winter Meetings? Would would like to see them do? Sound off in the comment section below with your personal hopes, wishes and wants! View the full article

For many consumers Black Friday and Cyber Monday signal the time period in which it is time to "shop until you drop", buying holiday gifts and presents for the people we find important in our life. While MLB team's don't have a Black Friday discount sale, they do have their own version of a spend-a-thon, and it's during the annual Winter Meetings. Every year, teams, agents and players gather for a few days in December, and because of the proximity to each other, many of the year's biggest free-agent deals and trades are consummated at this event. Last year, for example, Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets on the largest contract in professional sports history while in Dallas for the 2024 version of the Winter Meetings. Though that won't happen again, what this means is that the Chicago Cubs will likely take part in some of this action next week. What, then, should we expect from the North Siders? When: Monday, December 8th - Wednesday December 10th Where: Orlando, Florida Great news for anyone (like myself) who lives on the East Coast! Trades, signings and the like sometimes break at late hours during the Winter Meetings, and in years' past, when they have been held out West, it wasn't uncommon to wake up to breaking news. Just last year, the news that the Cubs signed starting pitcher Matthew Boyd broke at 3:21 am EST. So, while we shouldn't expect the action to entirely die down at night, we're probably in for a slightly-less-late new cycle than when they meetings have been held in San Diego or Dallas. Monday and Tuesday will be full of rumors, and Wednesday will have its' fair share of smoke, it will also be the day of the league's annual Rule 5 Draft, in which teams will begin to fill out their 40-man-rosters from other team's minor-league ranks. Not all is lost after Wednesday, as a slew of moves will happen afterwards, with the groundwork for them being laid over the course of the previous few days. A good example of this: the Cubs' eventual trade for Astros' outfielder Kyle Tucker, which happened shortly after the close of last year's Winter Meetings. How should you follow the action? Social media is your best friend and worst enemy for this. If you know who to follow and listen to (either on X/Twitter, BlueSky or YouTube) you can be among the first of your friends to break the news that something went down. Any of the big names, such as Jon Heyman, Jeff Passan, Jon Morosi, or Ken Rosenthal can be highly trusted to post the truth (Bob Nightengale of USA Today is a little more hit-and-miss than others). Some of the more local outlets that can be trusted include Brett Taylor and Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation (and, if you're looking for non-Cub sources, every team has their own version of Bleacher Nation!), Jesse Rogers, Dave Kaplan or Bruce Levine. Be careful out there, however. Smaller accounts with low follower counts could simply be clout-chasing for clicks or trying to purposefully deceive. A good rule of thumb: always look to see who's following these accounts. Do they have anyone you've heard of following them? No? Best to read things with a heavy hand of "skepticism" then. It's a fun time. Rumors are going to fly fast. Just be careful — some of the hardest to spot are the fakes who are just a letter or so different in their screen name from someone you really trust. Just be cognizant and keep an eye out for the false flags, but have fun following the flow of rumors, too. What are the Cubs going to do with their rotation? There's a good chance that the Cubs will look to solve the hole in their starting rotation during these four days. While it seems unlikely that Japanese star pitcher Tatsuya Imai will sign during the Meetings, most of the rest of the starting pitching market is likely to heat up now that Dylan Cease has set the market. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Michael King and others who may be on the Cubs' radar will likely come off the board soon. Some have fear with how much the team is willing to spend regarding a recent handful of cost-cutting measures over at Marquee Sports Network, also owned by the Cubs' ownership group, but those fears are just that: fears (as of now). If these fears are a reality, it may push the Cubs into a trade-scenario where they look into cost-controlled starting pitching such as the Miami Marlin's Edward Cabrera or the Washington Nationals' MacKenzie Gore. A trade may not fully materialize at the Meetings, instead taking a day or two beyond Orlando to complete (like their trade last offseason), so it may be a few days before we see the fruits of their efforts on this front come to fruition. Don't be entirely shocked to hear at least one crazy report connecting the Cubs to someone like Tarik Skubal, either. While it's far-fetched and the price would be astronomical, there are those who speculate he could be available a year prior to hitting his own free agency. Could the Cubs enter this sweepstakes? Absolutely, even if it's unlikely. The Cubs still need to fill out a bullpen, but who will they get? The team jumped pretty quickly into the reliever market, nabbing righty Phil Maton a few days ago on a two-year deal, but the Cubs are clearly not done filling out their thing bullpen. While they were connected to Ryan Helsley, he signed with Baltimore over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and reliever-ace Devin Williams is now off the board, taking his talents to the Big Apple, so the team is going to have to look elsewhere for help. A few names to follow in the back--of-their-pen search could be the Tampa Bay Rays' Pete Fairbanks, the San Diego Padres' Robert Suarez, or a reunion with Brad Keller. All three would require more than one year, but all three would add velocity and whiffs to a pen that needs it. Don't think the Cubs will only be looking for high-leverage help, though. Chicago needs to fill out their entire bullpen depth chart. They will probably look at some mid-level pitchers (i.e. Kyle Finnegan, Luke Weaver, etc), some left-handed pitchers to replace outgoing Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz, and some sleeper names, like reuniting with Mark Leiter Jr. or signing Evan Phillips, who is recovering from an injury and won't be ready until mid-year. When it comes to the relief market, I would assume anyone could be a fit. The Rule 5 Draft on Wednesday will also give the Cubs an opportunity to find some diamond-in-the-rough types as they look to round things out. In 2025, the Cubs selected Gage Workman, an infielder from Detroit, during this event. That did not work out for the team, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them find an arm they think they can mold into a useful bullpen piece. Are the Cubs looking to add to their offense? The Cubs are almost assuredly going to say goodbye to outfielder Kyle Tucker. The team does not seem interested in matching the free agent's price tag and instead appears happy to recoup the compensation pick. With young hitters Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros in the fold, as well, they seem poised to let the rookies take the designated hitter spot and run with it. That said, if the Cubs decide to go the trade route (moving, for example, Caissie in a trade for Cabrera) and move one, or both of their young hitters, could they find common ground with, say, Kyle Schwarber and bring the lefty home? Stranger things have happened! More than likely, however, the team will look into finding a Justin Turner replacement. Turner did post a 112 wRC+ against southpaws, but most would agree that his season left plenty on the table, and an upgrade would be in order. If the Cubs want another veteran, Paul Goldschmidt could make sense in this role. The team could also look to the IFA market, with two Japanese stars, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, highlighting the class. Both offer power potential and the ability to play some first and third base. Neither projects as purely platoon options, and both would require commitments that appear to be well north of $15 million per year. Is the team looking to find someone who's capable of displacing Caissie or Ballesteros as their primary DH? Korean Infielder Sung-Min Song could be another intriguing IFA for the team. Song does not look to be as in-demand as his two Japanese counterparts, but offers a better glove and some surprising pop. The lefty wouldn't solve the team's platoon issue, but could add a fun option off the bench. The Winter Meetings will be a time in which, at least, some of these questions are going to be answered, but don't expect them all to be solved. Regardless of what happens, the Cubs will likely make a move or two. Matthew Boyd was signed last year and the framework for Kyle Tucker laid. Will this be as fruitful of a year? For the Cubs' sake, hopefully — the team cannot rest on their laurels and squander the 2026 season coming off a 92-win year. The time to add and improve is now. What do you think the Cubs will do during the Winter Meetings? Would would like to see them do? Sound off in the comment section below with your personal hopes, wishes and wants! View the full article

In February of 2024, the typically small market-minded Kansas City franchise committed to the richest contract in franchise history when they signed Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $289 million contract. At an AAV of $26.25 million per season, the signing represented a commitment not just to Witt but also to the fanbase and to winning in general. At the time of the signing, Witt made it clear that he wanted to stay in Kansas City for his whole career, as his favorite players, Derek Jeter (Yankees) and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox), did growing up. He also made it clear that, like his idols, he wanted to win. After the 2023 season, the Royals had invested $109 million in free agency, bringing in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha among others, and this spending spree by Royals standards was apparently key in demonstrating the commitment to winning that Witt wanted to see from the Royals before signing his extension. At the time of the signing, JJ Picollo was quoted as saying, “When you’re as talented as he is, the finances will take care of themselves. But he was talking about the culture of winning. That really resonated with [Royals owner John Sherman] and me and was probably the driving factor when we got to the finish line that we had done some things that showed we wanted to win.” Witt will be around until at least 2030, and after a trip to the playoffs in 2024, followed by a disappointing 2025 season in which the Royals barely cracked .500, the clock is ticking. The open question facing Picollo is “how does a franchise unable to match the big spenders surround a generational superstar like Witt with enough talent to be a perennial championship contender?” A pitching staff that was unusually healthy in 2024 more than made up for it in 2025. However, injuries to each of the original starting 5 revealed surprising organizational depth in Noah Cameron, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert. The bullpen was solid if not spectacular, ranking sixth best in ERA at 3.63. No, despite the injuries, the problem was clearly the offense, specifically the numerous black holes in the lineup once opposing pitchers got past Witt, Garcia, Pasquantino, and Perez. Other than trade deadline acquisitions Adam Frazier and Mike Yastrzemski, no other Royals regulars aside from the big four above were even league-average hitters (100 OPS+). Most egregiously, Opening Day outfielders MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe had a -10 and 37 OPS+, respectively. Ouch. Jonathan India fared slightly better only in comparison, with his mediocre 89 OPS+ offset by atrocious defense at whatever position the Royals tried him at, resulting in a replacement-level WAR of 0.4. Clearly, the Royals need better production from the outfield. Free agent options Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger headline an otherwise uninspiring list of candidates. Tucker is too expensive (12 years, $420 million), and Bellinger is likely headed back to the Yankees; his batted ball metrics aren’t exactly in line with his salary expectations. There may be a few contributors to be found on the outfield free agent market, but nobody affordable who moves the needle in a big way. There is reasonable hope for Jac Caglianone in right field. His destruction of minor league pitching, his eye-popping max exit velocities, and his tape measure home runs make it at least reasonable to think he may overcome his rookie jitters and be a solid contributor, and perhaps more. Who is out there at a position of need and would move the offensive needle in a big way? Bo Bichette. Consensus estimates put him at an eight-year contract of roughly $200 million. Steep but manageable. Bichette will turn just 28 in March and can flat-out hit. Other than an injury-marred 2024 season, he’s been roughly 25% better than league average offensively. His below-average defense at shortstop would presumably be better at 2B, a position he first played in the playoffs this year after returning from a knee injury. There are only a few players with a realistic shot at more than 200 hits in 2026. Bichette and Witt are two of them. Plug Bichette in at second base and at the top of the lineup, followed by Witt, Garcia, Pasquantino, Perez, a much-improved Caglianone, Carter Jensen, and some affordable outfield contributors like Yastrzemski, Rob Refsnyder, Adolis Garcia, or Harrison Bader, and the 2026 lineup starts to look way scarier than 2025. The alternative is the trade market for outfielders and rolling with India at second base. The Royals have two starters who are 34 or older, and another who has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season. Kris Bubic, with his single year of control left, isn’t enough value to land a big bat. Wilyer Abreu or Jarren Duran straight up for Cole Ragans isn’t enough. Ragans has rare stuff. If he stays healthy and puts it all together consistently from a command and execution standpoint, he can win a Cy Young. Unfortunately, Ragans is coming off an injury-marred season in which his ERA greatly exceeded his FIP. Trading him now is potentially trading him at a low point in his value. With a new stadium decision arriving soon and the clock ticking on the best player the Royals have had since George Brett, 2026 is a critical juncture for the Royals. Sal will likely be gone in two years, freeing up significant salary space. It's win now time. Adding Bichette would give the Royals long-term fits in what would be one of the premier infields in baseball and would go a long way in giving the franchise what it hasn’t had in a very long time: a team that can compete for championships perennially. View the full article

A couple weeks ago, Jake Mailhot of FanGraphs presented the site's very preliminary power rankings for the 2026 MLB season, using "an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance." The idea was to provide a benchmark on where each roster stands heading into the most active stretch of the offseason. Many Twins fans (including myself) were downright shocked to see Minnesota ranked 12th on the list with a projected record of 82-80. Obviously that's nothing to write home about, but it's roughly 10 rankings slots and 10 wins higher than I have set my own expectations personally. "Fringe playoff contender" feels a lot more like a best-case scenario to me than a median outcome. But maybe I'm being too harsh? To be clear, these types of predictive forecasts and rankings aren't necessarily all that meaningful. The Twins have repeatedly fallen short of their projections from FanGraphs, including by an MLB-high 14 wins this past season. But, as Aaron Gleeman notes at The Athletic, these projections can "provide useful league-wide and narrative-free context" when assessing the club's relative strength. In other words, objective data like this can help us get out of our own heads. So let's take a closer look. Why does a system like this one view the Twins more favorably than many fans might? And further, if we treat the premise as valid — that Minnesota enters this offseason as a .500-ish team with room to grow — how much should that insight guide the front office's approach? A proven talent nucleus remains in place (for now) I find it easy to get lost in the disposable assets littering the Twins' 40-man roster, and the massive question marks surrounding guys like Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. But what this FanGraphs ranking really brings to light is the value of Minnesota's remaining contingent of established star talent. Few other teams can boast a core trio matching the caliber of Byron Buxton, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. It helps to have your best players at positions like center field and starting pitcher, where impact is maximized. Of course, all three have seen their names bandied about in trade rumors. The concentration of projected value in these players alone underscores how much the team's fortunes will be affected if they deal one or more — presuming they aren't getting back similar present-day value, which is a tough needle to thread. ESPN's own projections view the Twins a bit less favorably, but still not terribly, at 17th in the majors. "If the Twins' roster trends even younger and cheaper," writes Bradford Doolittle, "this ranking will tumble accordingly." Projections are more about form than function Does a model like FanGraphs account specifically for the fact that the Twins currently have no viable late-inning relievers? Not really. It just sees an overall pitching staff that is undeniably deep on quality, and assumes the logistics will work themselves out. In real life, we know it's not that simple. You're just not going to win without at least a decent bullpen and right now that's the most difficult gap to envision getting filled. The Twins have so many late-game roles to address and so little to work with. Even if you assume a couple of immediately successful starter transitions, and a bounce-back year from Cole Sands, the Twins are still probably short of a dependable all-around unit. Similarly, projection systems that are looking at raw performance forecasts might not account for the challenges posed by an overabundance of left-handed hitting corner outfielders. But maybe this example poses an opportunity: flipping one of their redundant bats for relief help from other rosters. There's work to be done In the power rankings from FanGraphs, the Twins were listed above several larger market teams — Rangers, Cubs, Orioles, Astros, Giants, etc. — that are very likely to leapfrog them through a more aggressive course of action this offseason. Unless the Twins surprise us by focusing more on adding that subtracting, they're bound to fall behind in the hot-stove reshuffle. Admittedly I've found myself wondering whether it even makes sense to push much, given all they lost at the deadline last year and all the structural issues plaguing this roster. If the ESPN ranking (17th) is more accurate than the FanGraphs ranking (12th), is it even logical to try and keep pace with the lower-middle of the pack versus blowing it all up and supplementing the farm for future efforts? These are the weighty questions hanging over the Twins and their front office as the Winter Meetings get rolling and the offseason action accelerates. Up to this point there has been little indication that Minnesota intends to lean into a competitive approach, aside from what Derek Falvey has positioned as wishful thinking at the mercy of ownership. But if you put any stock into the projection system from FanGraphs, it's possible the Twins don't have THAT much work to do in order to become a credible threat in 2026. View the full article

Earlier this week on the Marlins Hot Stove Show, Miami Marlins Clayton McCullough revealed that Connor Norby could be utilized as an outfielder next season. That's notable considering the organization has previously been so adamant about Norby devoting all of his energy to third base. Every defensive appearance he's made since mid-August of 2024—minor league and major league, including rehab assignments and even spring training—has been at the hot corner. Norby's conversion to third base has been unsuccessful. He lacks the dexterity to adjust to in-between hops and the reaction time to get in front of extremely hard-hit balls. As a result, he has totaled minus-9 outs above average and minus-10 defensive runs saved in less than a full season's worth of action. His primary focus is continuing to develop there, per McCullough, but it's no longer sensible for that to be his sole focus, especially when the Marlins have another in-house option, Graham Pauley, who has shown himself to be a great third baseman. The Marlins will attempt to increase Norby's defensive versatility by revisiting positions he used to play as a prospect in the Baltimore Orioles organization. During his MiLB career, he spent 497 innings in left field and 206 ⅔ innings in right field, with the vast majority of those reps coming at the Triple-A level. Grinding tape from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, I was encouraged by Norby's performance, even though it was a bit rough around the edges. The ceiling for his defense is higher in the outfield corners than at third base. Norby definitely has enough athleticism to be an outfielder. His 28.8 ft/sec Sprint Speed from 2025 is right on par with the typical center fielder and comfortably above most corner guys. He runs well enough to compensate for poor initial reads and overcome circuitous routes. His arm strength is also an asset. Here is the top highlight that I've come across from Norby's outfield days, approximately 230 feet on the fly directly to the catcher's facemask despite his momentum taking him into foul territory: nn0sm5_1.mp4 In this next scenario, there was no chance at a double play, but he flaunted the upper limit of his throwing range from more than 300 feet away: norby of_arm strength (309 ft).mp4 Norby's main weakness in the outfield was his overzealousness. He would occasionally attempt desperation throws to the plate like the one above even when it meant gifting the trail runner(s) a free 90 feet. I saw him misplay balls when rushing to field them off the ground, and turn singles into extra-base hits with ill-advised dives. But his communication with teammates on fly balls was fine and he demonstrated an understanding of who had priority in each situation. Although he didn't look particularly smooth when navigating around outfield walls, he made all the plays that he was supposed to make. Regardless of which moves the Marlins make over the course of this offseason, I'd like to see Norby get reacquainted with the outfield in spring training. Ultimately, the 25-year-old's playing time will be influenced most of all by his offensive adjustments (.251/.300/.389 slash line in 88 games last season). He'll need to be more selective against right-handed pitching and more of a power threat against lefties to stake his claim to an everyday role. View the full article

The 2025 Winter Meetings are nearly upon us! The annual four-day event begins officially on December 8 in Orlando, Flordia, though most teams will begin arriving by Sunday, Dec. 7. There's a lot that tends to go down at the Meetings every year, so let's break down the schedule, and the biggest rumors and noise surrounding the Boston Red Sox heading into the offseason's biggest event. NOTE: The Red Sox completed their Jhostynxon Garcia trade with the Pirates shortly before this article was set to publish. Red Sox's Offseason Thus Far The big move Boston has made was the acquisition of Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. The 36-year-old right-hander should be a perfect fit in the middle of Alex Cora' rotation alongside Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. Otherwise, the team has focused on protecting prospects and preparing the 40-man roster for a busy offseason. Some notable non-tenders (Nathaniel Lowe) and minor trades (Luke Heyman, Ronny Hernandez) clog up the team's transaction log, but for the most part, this is still largely the same roster the team had when the 2025 season ended. The Red Sox's notable free agents include Alex Bregman, Lucas Giolito, and Steven Matz. In terms of previous Winter Meetings, the Sox brought in both Chris Sale (2016) and Crochet (2024) at the event in past years. This is perhaps the single-best chance to make a trade on the league calendar thanks to the proximity of every major front office executive, though Boston may focus on free agents this time around after trading for Gray. 2025 Winter Meeting Schedule Location: Orlando, FL December 8 marks the first official day of the meetings, and it should be a busy one. There's already been a number of notable moves made this offseason, from the Dylan Cease signing to the New York Mets and Texas Rangers' blockbuster trade involving Marcus Semien and Brandon Nimmo. The big expectation is that at least two of the big three Japanese stars (Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Tatsuya Imai) will sign at the Meetings, as their posting windows will close within the next month and change. December 9 will be when the league's annual MLB Draft Lottery takes place, though by virtue of making the playoffs in 2025, the Red Sox won't find themselves in contention for the No. 1 overall pick. December 10 will feature the Rule 5 Draft, in which teams can selected unprotected prospects from other organizations. In order to keep drafted players, teams must keep them on the active 26-man roster (or the 60-day IL) throughout the remainder of the following season; otherwise, the prospects' original team can take them back. In terms of recent Rule 5 picks, the Red Sox have a few members of their bullpen (Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock) who stand out as excellent selections. The Winter Meetings will officially end on December 11, though most teams will depart from Orlando before the finish line is crossed. Still, the groundwork laid in Florida will lead to a cascade of signings and trades through the New Year. Red Sox Winter Meetings Rumor Roundup Sonny Gray won't be the only starting pitching addition. This is something we've believed since the moment the Gray trade was made, but at this point, it seems to be a lock. The Red Sox made sure the Cardinals ate a bunch of salary so they could maintain flexibility throughout the remainder of the offseason, be it via more trades or a blockbuster free agent or two. My money is still on Freddy Peralta, but Tatsuya Imai remains a very popular name that continues to pop up in rumors. I also wouldn't be stunned if the team finally leverages its outfield depth to swing a trade with Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners, who have seemingly soured on Victor Robles in right field. Will Sonny Gray be extended? From what I've seen, this topic hasn't come up much, but it is a pressing matter. Gray, 36, is a free agent after the 2026 season, assuming his $30 million mutual option is declined in favor of a $10 million buyout. With the 2027 lockout looming, Gray would be wise to secure one last big contract, though I don't expect the Red Sox to be the ones to pay it. Gray was acquired as a true one-year rental, and I'd imagine Craig Breslow has every intention of maintaining some payroll and roster flexibility for next offseason. Are the Red Sox prioritizing a reliever? Aroldis Chapman was utterly brilliant in 2025, and set-up man Garrett Whitlock wasn't far behind. Yet, Chapman is 37 and had a long run of mediocrity before his maiden campaign in Boston, and Whitlock can become a free agent next year if the team declines his option. Thus, it shouldn't be a surprise that the Red Sox have been poking around the bullpen market in free agency. And I'm not talking about a small play like a reunion with Steven Matz — I mean that there's real smoke on the reliever fire, whether it be a more cost-effective option like Pete Fairbanks or a true upper-echelon closer like Edwin Diaz. I'm under the impression the latter will only happen if the team swings and misses on all of its primary starting pitcher targets, but pairing Chapman and Whitlock up with another elite leverage arm could shorten a lot of games in 2026. What on earth is happening at first base? Truthfully, I don't know, and I'm not sure anyone does. Triston Casas has more fans than detractors in the organization, but you simply can't rely on him to stay healthy at this point. I'm pretty sure the Sox don't want Murakami -- his strikeout issues are a real concern for MLB teams -- and Okamoto is probably going to exit their "comfortable" price range. Power is a necessity, so someone like Luis Arraez is off the table as a reclamation project. This truly might be a spot where a trade has to happen, unless the Red Sox completely pull a 180 on their modus operandi and sign an aging Pete Alonso to a long-term contract. View the full article

There are two ways former MLB players can be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The first is the annual election conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (“BBWAA”). The second is selection by an Era Committee, formerly known as the Veterans Committee. Of the 278 former major league players who are members of the Hall of Fame, 117 were elected by an Era/Veterans Committee. This year's Era Committee will officially announce the election results on December 7, 2025. Concerning the BBWAA’s election, an eligible player’s name must appear on at least 75% of the BBWAA ballots cast in a given year to become a Hall of Fame member. The BBWAA removes a candidate from future ballots if either the candidate’s name appeared on fewer than five percent of the ballots or the player was on the ballot for 10 years but did not meet the 75% condition. Delgado’s name initially appeared on the BBWAA’s ballot in 2015. Unfortunately, his name appeared on only 3.8% of ballots cast, and the BBWAA removed him from future ballots. Now, for the first time, Delgado is on a Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, for the Hall of Fame class of 2026. To gain entrance into the Hall, Delgado’s name must appear on at least 12 of the 16 Era Committee ballots cast. Delgado played 17 seasons, 12 with the Blue Jays (1993-2004), one with the Marlins (2005) and four with the Mets (2006-2009). He posted a 135 wRC+ and a 44.4 bWAR. Other highlights from his career include the following: His wRC+ was 19th among the 162 players who played during his career (1993-2009) and had at least 5,000 plate appearances. Concerning first basemen, Delgado’s wRC+ was the eighth highest, and, notably, five of the seven first basemen ahead of Delgado are Hall of Famers (or future Hall of Famers, in the case of Albert Pujols). Delgado hit 473 home runs, which is 34th all-time. Among players whose careers began after 1979, his home run total ranks #16 overall and eighth among first basemen. In four seasons, Delgado finished in the top 10 of MVP voting: 2000 (4th), 2003 (2nd), 2005 (6th) and 2008 (9th). He won three Silver Slugger Awards (1999, 2000 and 2003). Delgado had two seasons in which his bWAR was in the top 10 among position players (2000 and 2003). Delgado’s last full MLB season was 2008, his age-36 campaign. He generated a 123 wRC+ with 38 home runs and a 1.3 bWAR. In 2009, he played 26 games, but did not play after May 10 due to a hip injury. Subsequently, Delgado underwent two hip surgeries. He attempted a comeback in 2010 with Boston’s Triple-A affiliate, but after five games, he called an end to the comeback and his MLB career. Delgado was not known for his defence. As a first baseman, his Total Zone per 1,200 innings was -2. That is inferior to Don Mattingly’s +3, and many MLB observers considered Mattingly to be a premier defender at first base. I wrote about Mattingly's candidacy earlier this week; the former Blue Jays bench coach is on the same Hall of Fame ballot as Delgado. Concerning dWAR, the career marks of Delgado and Mattingly are -17.2 and -6.2, respectively. Delgado’s best case for Hall of Fame membership is his home run total. Of the 33 players with more home runs, 24 are Hall of Famers, seven were linked with performance-enhancing drugs (Barry Bonds et al.) and have yet to be elected to the Hall of Fame, and two are almost-certain Hall of Fame members (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera). If the Era Committee does not elect Delgado to the Hall of Fame, he will be the only non-PED-linked name among the top 34 home run hitters not in the Hall. Onto the bWAR numbers! Three bWAR-based metrics are valuable for evaluating whether a player has earned Hall of Fame membership: bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS. bWAR does not require explanation, but WAR7 and JAWS do. One of the limitations of career bWAR is that a Hall of Fame candidate may have generated a high bWAR because they had a lengthy career. Since a Hall of Famer should be one of the best at their position over multiple seasons, WAR7, the total of a player’s seven highest bWAR seasons, is informative because it measures dominance across many years. JAWS, developed by Jay Jaffe, is the average of bWAR and WAR7, and it is instructive because it balances these two metrics (bWAR and WAR7). Jaffe, now of FanGraphs, wrote an excellent article about Delgado’s Hall of Fame candidacy. However, as with Mattingly, it is the bWAR-related metrics that most hurt Delgado’s Hall of Fame candidacy. In addition to Delgado, Table 1 shows the career bWAR marks of the top 15 first basemen whose MLB careers began after 1979. Delgado’s bWAR, WAR7 and JAWS numbers are noticeably below the average of the Hall of Famers on the list (Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Fred McGriff, and David Ortiz). Of these Hall of Fame members, McGriff was the only one voted in by an Era Committee. Delgado’s bWAR, WAR7 and JAWS marks are 44.4, 34.5 and 39.4, which rank 19th, 21st and 18th, respectively. Concerning the all-time Hall of Fame list, there are 25 first basemen. Their average bWAR, WAR7 and JAWS are 65.0, 42.0 and 53.5, respectively. Furthermore, among all first basemen, Delgado’s bWAR and WAR7 rank 40th, and his JAWS slots in at #38. Circling back to Table 1, Delgado’s WAR7, like Mattingly's, is similar to those of Ortiz and McGriff. So, should he be in the Hall of Fame? The answer is no, because Hall of Fame membership should be exclusive and reserved for those who were clearly the best of their era at their position. In other words, the entrance bar should be set high. The Hall of Fame candidacies of Ortiz and McGriff were marginal. The bar should not be lowered further to grant Hall of Fame access to Delgado or Mattingly. The Last Word The threshold to be a Hall of Famer should be set high. Although Delgado’s home run total is impressive, there should be more than one aspect of hitting, no matter how important that one aspect is, that vaults a player into the Hall. Delgado’s all-around game, as measured by bWAR-related metrics, places him, like many players, in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame. View the full article

On Thursday in winter ball, Deyvison De Los Santos (Dominican Republic) went 1-for-4 with a game-winning two-run triple. Jared Serna (Mexico) went 1-for-4. Jacob Berry (Puerto Rico) went 0-for-3 with a walk. Eric Rataczak (Australia) went 2-for-5. Only 111 days away from Marlins Opening Day. 🔷 Add Cedric Mullins to the growing list of free agents who the Marlins reportedly pursued before getting outbid. The Fish are gradually running out of excuses for their inactivity as 19 of the 29 other MLB clubs have completed at least one major league free agent signing this offseason. 🔷 I watched clips of Connor Norby's outfield defense from the 2023 and 2024 seasons and came away optimistic that he could become more effective there than he has at third base. Marlins manager Clayton McCullough insists that Norby's "focus" is still on playing third. 🔷 Louis Addeo-Weiss reflects on the career of Baseball Hall of Fame candidate Carlos Delgado, whose 2005 season was as impressive as any we've ever seen from a Marlins first baseman. 🔷 Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp executive vice president and general manager Harold Craw has been hired by the Tampa Bay Rays. The Jumbo Shrimp elevated Matt Goudreau to fill his shoes while promoting Noel Blaha to senior vice president. Jacksonville's hitting coach, Mike Marjama, announced that he'll be working for the San Francisco Giants (his childhood team). 🔷 This week, the Marlins added job postings for part-time guest experience staff, a senior software engineer, a coordinator of partnerships and a pro scouting internship. 🔷 Every year, I enjoy passing along historical comps for all players on the Marlins 40-man roster courtesy of Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections. 🔷 Tyler Boronski interviewed former Marlins great Dontrelle Willis about his playing career and becoming a broadcaster. 🔷 Elsewhere around baseball, old friend Miguel Rojas re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a one-year, $5.5 million deal. He will retire after the 2026 season and transition to a player development role within the organization. The Boston Red Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates agreed to a five-player trade centered around outfielder Jhostynxon García and Johan Oviedo. loanDepot park will host the La Gente del Barrio Celebrity Softball Game & Home Run Derby on Saturday. On Sunday night, we'll find out who (if anybody) the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee has picked to join the 2026 Hall of Fame class. View the full article

Many of baseball's most prolific players at the turn of the 21st century were indicted on or suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs. Thankfully, there were a few exceptions who showed us that one didn't need such substances to hit home runs with the best of them. These are your Jim Thome (612 HR), Frank Thomas (521), Ken Griffey Jr. (630), and Fred McGriff (493) types, and somewhat lost amidst them, Carlos Delgado (473). Thome, Thomas, and the Junior Griffey were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. As for McGriff, he was repeatedly snubbed by the writers. It wouldn't be until 2023 that he resurfaced on the Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot. The committee emphatically supported his candidacy. Three years later, Delgado hopes to follow in the paw prints of "Crime Dog" as that same committee will convene this Sunday at the commencement of the sport's Winter Meetings. On the surface, Delgado's biggest boon is his home run total, which ranks 19th in the divisional era (1969-present). Nine of the 18 ahead of him are Hall of Famers, with two more—Albert Pujols (703) and Miguel Cabrera (511)—seen as slam-dunk picks once eligible. Barry Bonds (762) and Gary Sheffield (509), players with ties to PEDs, are also being considered by the committee for 2026 enshrinement. Delgado homered 336 times for the Toronto Blue Jays and 104 times for the New York Mets, as well as 33 times during his lone season as a member of the then-Florida Marlins. The Marlins signed Delgado to a four-year/$52 million contract after 12 seasons with Toronto. He hit the ground running for the Fish in 2005, hitting .300 in April. The subsequent month was even better, featuring eight home runs en route to a 1.085 OPS. Of all hitters in franchise history to take at least 100 plate appearances in May, Delgado's OPS in '05 ranks ninth. Delgado's consistency was remarkable and the end result was a .301/.399/.582/.981 slash line. In high-leverage situations (as defined by Baseball-Reference), he was practically invincible, slashing .421/.487/.916/1.403. No MLB hitter has matched that OPS in a single season since (min. 100 PA). Even when put into the context of 2005's offensive environment, Delgado had a 161 OPS+ (with 100 representing league average). Of the 144 Marlins hitters to qualify for a batting title, that ranks fourth. Delgado finished sixth in National League MVP voting for a Marlins team that remained in playoff contention until late September, ultimately being eliminated after a 4-0 loss to the Nationals on the 26th of that month. Florida would finish the season 83-79, then just their fourth winning season in franchise history, falling six games short of the NL Wild Card. And just like that, it was time for another rebuild in Miami. The 33-year-old Delgado, despite his obvious value on the field, was jettisoned in favor of younger, cheaper talent. Less than two months following the end of the season, the Marlins traded Delgado to the division rival New York Mets in a deal that netted them Mike Jacobs. Jacobs would settle in as Miami's first baseman, hitting 69 home runs over the next three seasons with a respectable 105 OPS+. But to this day, Delgado is the best power hitter that the franchise has ever deployed at the position. Particularly in recent years, first base has been a revolving door of mediocre individuals worried about clearing the replacement-level threshold, to say nothing of the HOF election threshold. Throughout the vast majority of his career—including 2005—Delgado's glove was a statistically significant liability. As a Marlin, he posted an MLB-worst minus-20 defensive runs saved. It negated a chunk of his offensive production, hence his lifetime 44.4 bWAR. Hitters rarely reach Cooperstown with such a low total. At least 12 of the 16 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee members will need to vote for Delgado in order for him to reach, in his words, "the ultimate goal." View the full article

Well, we knew the Boston Red Sox had to deal from their outfield coffers eventually. This isn't exactly the blockbuster deal most had in mind, but it certainly qualifies as the team's second major trade of the offseason. The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting top prospect Jhostynxon Garcia and 18-year-old pitcher Jesus Travieso in exchange for major-league starter Johan Oviedo and a pair of prospects, pitcher Tyler Samaniego and catcher Adonys Guzman. Oviedo has a career 4.24 ERA in 361 innings, though he only made nine starts in 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Plenty more to come on this deal... View the full article

After an uneven rookie season, Matt Shaw has only a tenuous hold on the third-base job for the 2026 Chicago Cubs. Shaw comes with six more seasons of team control and will make a league-minimum salary for at least the next two years, and his defense improved by leaps and bounds over the course of 2025, but his bat is a shakier proposition. Thus, as the team tries to upgrade its roster for next season, one free agent in whom they've taken a noteworthy interest is a player with whom they flirted last offseason, as his free agency stretched into late January and early February: Alex Bregman. Sources with knowledge of the team's thinking confirmed to North Side Baseball what Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney reported at The Athletic. The Cubs are considering a version of their offseason where Bregman is the headline signee, which might mean trading Shaw (or other young hitters) to address their remaining need for a top-tier starting pitcher. However, they haven't yet made more than cursory contact with agent Scott Boras about signing Bregman. It should stay that way. Here, in a nutshell, is why. Last winter, the opportunity to sign Bregman as a free agent was rightfully tantalizing. He cost the Red Sox a draft pick and some international spending capacity, because he'd rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, but he signed a short-term deal and was always likely to opt out of it after 2025. Now, however, he's shopping for a truer long-term home. That doesn't make sense for the Cubs at the price Bregman is likely to command, because his power is probably fading in an irreversible way. Bregman consistently swung the bat around 71.5 miles per hour in 2024, even in a season when his power production sagged. In 2025, he started at roughly the same level, but it was considerably slower after he missed considerable time with a strained quad. It's possible that his true-talent swing speed didn't diminish much within the season, but it's highly likely that it's about to. Bregman will turn 32 years old just after Opening Day. As that chart from Tom Tango showed, at 32, hitters start losing bat speed at an accelerating rate. We're unlikely to see the former All-Star get back the bat speed he lost, even if he only lost it because of an injury from which he's now fully recovered. If Bregman swung the bat as fast as Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso, that wouldn't be so bad. Those sluggers are over-30 free agents this winter, but are in line for big deals because they have power that should remain well above average for the next few years. That just isn't true of Bregman. Based on the aging curve for bat speed, only two right-handed batters showed the ability to generate big power while swinging as slowly as Bregman is likely to swing in 2026: the Dodgers' Will Smith and new Orioles outfielder Taylor Ward. Baltimore traded a high-upside starter for Ward earlier this offseason, in Grayson Rodriguez, but that's because Rodriguez is a major, perennial injury risk—and because they only need to worry about Ward for one year, before he'll hit free agency. Expect Ward's market to be surprisingly cold next winter, because he'll be a power-oriented righty hitter with a slow swing, heading toward his mid-30s. That's what Bregman is right now. He made a world of sense on a short-term deal, but a source close to the longtime Astro said he's looking for a five-year contract this time around. He might have to settle for a four-year pact, but even that would likely pan out badly. He's not a power-only player, in that he makes contact at a very high rate and draws walks well, but Bregman is too small to project to hold onto his bat speed unusually well; too slow to hold onto much value on the bases, or to augment the upside of a balls-in-play, high-average profile for the medium-term future; and too weak-armed to stay at third base all the way through even a four-year engagement. If his market doesn't go where Bregman hopes, and he's available for under $100 million on a four-year deal, he fits the Cubs' needs. That would leave money free to bolster the rotation and the bullpen, while rounding out the lineup nicely. Certainly, if he ends up being open to another one-year deal, the Cubs should be willing to throw big money at him. If, however, he commands an annual average value over $30 million on a deal of three years or longer, the Cubs should stay away. He didn't go over a cliff in 2025 with the Red Sox, thanks to adjustments focused on pulling the ball in the air and banging balls off the Green Monster at Fenway Park. He might very well start a steep decline in 2026, though, and Wrigley Field doesn't offer the cushion against that kind of trouble that Fenway or Houston's Daikin Park do. The Cubs are unlikely to be as good in 2026 as they were in 2025. Bregman is the kind of player who could change that, but the type of deal he appears to want wouldn't allow them to do the other things they need to do to justify it. If Chicago wants a big bat in this free-agent market, they would be better off shelling out bigger bucks for Alonso or Bo Bichette. They would be even wiser to roll the dice and sign Kazuma Okamoto, out of NPB, instead—and to spend the attendant savings on a more robust upgrade of their pitching staff. Bregman was a perfect fit last year, and Jed Hoyer should have done more to bring him in. That golden opportunity has passed, and the Cubs should move on, rather than making a big-money mistake on a player heading into his twilight. View the full article

Byron Buxton has repeatedly stated that he would stay in the Twin Cities for the rest of his career. Now, the veteran star appears increasingly open to the idea of waiving his no-trade clause. That shift has quietly pushed the door open for teams like the New York Mets, who have been circling for months and believe they are one impact defender away from transforming their offseason. Let's take a deeper look into why the Buxton trade conversation has resurfaced, why the Mets remain heavy suitors, and which young players could catch the Twins' interest if talks gain traction. Why a Buxton Trade Is Back on the Table If the Twins had kept their veteran core intact at last summer’s trade deadline, this conversation might feel far-fetched. Instead, the front office pivoted toward selling, after injuries and inconsistency dragged Minnesota out of the AL Central race. Buxton stayed put then, but the logic behind that decision appears to be changing. Buxton has three years and just $45 million remaining on his extension, making him one of the league’s best dollar-for-dollar values following a 2025 season in which he launched 35 home runs; posted an .878 OPS; and delivered nearly five wins above replacement. That production, combined with a playable center field glove, is precisely the kind of asset that rebuilding teams often cash in while they still can. Reports from ESPN and The Athletic indicate Buxton is willing to approve a move under the right circumstances. The Braves and Mets reached out about Buxton at the deadline, but he held firm to his desire to stay in Minnesota. If the Twins want to maximize value before age and injury concerns resurface, a winter move might be the moment. Why the Mets Are Locked In on a Center Field Upgrade David Stearns, the Mets' president of baseball operations, has made it clear that New York intends to improve its run prevention and athleticism. To be fair, the Twins’ front office has said similar things about Minnesota’s roster over the last year. Earlier this winter, New York traded Brandon Nimmo to Texas for Marcus Semien, signaling a shift toward better infield defense and more stability up the middle. That maneuver, though, created a glaring opening in the outfield. Juan Soto is penciled into right field, but center field remains unsettled. The Mets retained Tyrone Taylor as a depth option and are giving top prospect Carson Benge the chance to compete for a roster spot in spring training. They are also hovering around the high end of the free-agent market, where names like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger linger. Neither of those players are center field options, though. Buxton is a different category of target. He is significantly cheaper than the star free agents and offers a reliable defensive fit, even if his power output fluctuates. If Benge proves ready sooner than expected, Buxton could shift to left field and immediately improve the outfield defense. If Benge needs more seasoning, Buxton becomes the everyday anchor in center. For a team aiming to contend with the Braves and Phillies, this flexibility matters. The Mets' window is open. Stearns has the prospect capital. The logic lines up. Mets Top Prospects Who Could Interest the Twins For a player of Buxton’s caliber, the Twins should expect multiple premium talents in return. The Mets have precisely the type of system that can support such a deal. Nolan McLean, RHP (No. 1 in the system, No. 11 in MLB) McLean is still prospect-eligible, but he's a big-leaguer and could step into the Twins’ rotation if they trade from their veteran starting pitcher depth. Last season, he posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 27.2 K% at Double A and Triple A. He was even better during his big-league debut, with a 2.06 ERA and 30.3 K% in eight starts. McLean would be tough to wrestle away, even for Buxton. Carson Benge, OF (No. 2 in the system, No. 21 in MLB) This is another tough piece to pry loose. Benge is likely to debut in 2026 and could slot into New York’s outfield for years. Last season, as a 22-year-old, he moved through the three highest levels in the Mets' farm system. In 116 games, he hit .281/.385/.472, with a 150 wRC+. If Minnesota insists on a potential Buxton replacement, they will start the conversation here. Jett Williams, IF (No. 3 in the system, No. 30 in MLB) Williams has on-base skills and defensive versatility that fit Minnesota’s development patterns perfectly. He might be the most realistic centerpiece, if New York wants to keep Benge and McLean. Last season, he hit .261/.363/.465, with a 136 wRC+ in 130 games, although that included some struggles upon a promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. He was drafted as a middle infielder but has also played some center. Like Benge, he would be a plausible Buxton replacement. Jonah Tong, RHP (No. 4 in the system, No. 46 in MLB) Tong won MiLB's Pitching Prospect of the Year Award in 2025 and profiles as a rotation stabilizer with upside. At the two highest levels of the minors, he posted a 1.43 ERA (best among full-season qualifiers) and led the minors with 179 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings. His 40.5% strikeout rate, 29.9 K-BB%, .148 opponents' batting average, 1.68 FIP, and 2.16 xFIP were all tops among minor leaguers with at least 100 innings pitched. His brief struggles in the big leagues at age 22 might make the front office hesitate, but this is precisely the type of right arm the Twins covet. Brandon Sproat, RHP (No. 5 in the system) Sproat is a power righty who could help the Twins as soon as 2026. He pitched the bulk of his innings at Triple A last season and compiled a 4.24 ERA, with a 1.24 WHIP and a 22.1% strikeout rate. Adding him as part of a larger package would firm up Minnesota’s pitching depth. Jacob Reimer, 3B/1B (No. 6 in the system) One of the best third base prospects in baseball, Reimer would give Minnesota a long-term solution behind Royce Lewis or a high-ceiling bat if injuries or roster decisions shift the infield picture. He split time between High A and Double A last season, with a 157 wRC+, 21.5% strikeout rate, and 11.1% walk rate. Reimer is a right-handed power bat, something the Twins have lacked in recent seasons. A realistic Twins ask could be a package built around Williams or Reimer, paired with a pitching prospect like Tong or Sproat. If the Mets are determined to push past other NL East competitors, this is the price they will finally agree to pay. A Buxton trade is not imminent, but the conditions feel more aligned than ever. The Twins need young, controllable talent with a chance to make a big difference. The Mets need a steadying force in center field. Buxton is increasingly open to a new chapter. The two clubs have danced around this possibility for months. This winter might be the time they finally finish the song. Which prospects would make an ideal Buxton package? Would the Mets overpay for Buxton? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

The Mets are surveying the trade market for rotation upgrades and have expressed interest in Twins right-hander Joe Ryan, who remains appealing due to his affordability and remaining club control. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Ryan is one of several trade targets for the Mets. Minnesota, which unexpectedly tore down much of its roster at the 2025 trade deadline, held onto Ryan despite significant interest from multiple contenders. His strong performance and team-friendly salary make him a valuable asset, and the Twins’ willingness to move him now remains uncertain. Much of Minnesota’s direction hinges on ownership and the status of two long-anticipated minority-ownership additions, which could influence the team’s budget. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said he intends to build for 2026 unless directed otherwise, though the club’s quiet offseason and drastically reduced payroll leave their true intentions unclear. A deeper sell-off that includes Ryan, Pablo López, Ryan Jeffers, or even a reassessment of Byron Buxton’s no-trade stance becomes more plausible if spending remains restricted. If the Twins do consider a Ryan trade, Mets prospect Jonah Tong makes sense as a centerpiece (Heyman mentioned Tong specifically in the article). His rapid rise through the minors and elite strikeout rates have established him as a top-50 prospect, despite early struggles in his MLB debut. The upcoming Winter Meetings are expected to reveal whether Minnesota plans to add pieces for a 2026 push or continue stripping down the roster, with payroll flexibility likely determining how aggressively they act and whether their top players become realistic trade chips. View the full article

I'll preface this by saying I'm a sucker for powder blue uniforms. As a child of the 1980s when it felt like every team had one, it evokes nostalgia for a time when baseball was stupid, played on concrete, and everyone was doing something illegal. To my knowledge, the Brewers have never used "Milwaukee" on a powder blue jersey, making these likely to be road uniforms. The block font is a throwback, but only to jerseys that read "Brewers" in the 1970s and 1980s. Milwaukee was typically written in a script font, not dissimilar to the current dark blue jerseys worn on the road. What are your thoughts on these new jerseys? Yay or nay? View the full article

Despite recently trading for Sonny Gray, the Red Sox still have notable holes in their rotation. Both Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval will be returning from long-term injuries, and Tanner Houck is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. There have been many reports that the Red Sox and Royals have explored trades that would include sending a starting pitcher to Boston and an outfielder to Kansas City. Most recently, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the following after meeting with Royals GM J.J. Picollo. Let’s do a deep dive into who could potentially move to Kansas City, how they would fit, and what it might take to bring them to Kansas City. Top Potential Trade Targets Jarren Duran Duran has been the name most often mentioned in trade talks. He would slot perfectly into the top of the lineup, and having Duran and Witt batting one and two, respectively, would be among the most dynamic in baseball to watch. Duran has accumulated over 15 fWAR in his last three seasons, led the American League in triples the past 2 seasons, led the league in doubles in 2024, and was six behind the leader, Bobby Witt Jr., in 2025. His .332 OBP from last season would rank fourth in the Royals roster, better than Jonathan India’s OBP of .323, who the Royals acquired last offseason for his on-base abilities. Duran would also be a clear upgrade to the Royals’ outfield production. Based on Fangraph’s projections, Duran’s projected fWAR of 2.6 is just one shy of the Royals’ entire outfield projected fWAR of 3.6. Masataka Yoshida Yoshida has been primarily a designated hitter in his time in Boston, but has still played some outfield in recent years. In his first three seasons in Boston, his production dropped noticeably compared to his time playing in Japan. His defense will not provide an upgrade in Kansas City. When playing the field in 2023, his Fielding Run Value was -11. In 2023 and 2024, his offensive production was well above league-average with a wRC+ over 110 and a wOBA over .330. His production in 2025 dipped, but he missed the first 90 games of the season recovering from a shoulder injury. If the Royals trade for him, they will hope that he can return to his pre-injury form. There is also the issue of money. Yoshida is owed $18.6 million in each of his next two seasons before becoming a free agent. That salary would make him the third-highest earner next year behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Seth Lugo. While the Royals are not necessarily opposed to committing that amount to one player, that salary could be prohibitive for adding other talent to the roster. Jhostynxon Garcia Garcia had a very brief cameo in the majors. He has had a lot of success in the minor leagues, posting an OPS of at least .810 in 2024 and 2025. He could be an intriguing option for the Royals, but he might not be the impact bat that could help the Royals in the immediate future. If included in a trade, Outfielders Less Likely To Be Involved Wilyer Abreu Abreu has been a valuable contributor to the Red Sox. One issue with Abreu is that he has been shielded from starting against left-handed pitchers. Since the Royals are also in search of a platoon partner for Jac Caglianone, Abreu is less likely to be a fit in Kansas City. Ceddanne Rafaela Rafaela is a defense-first center fielder. While his offense was decent in 2025, the Royals will be looking for more power in the outfield. His 95 OPS+ from last season would be an improvement over most of the Royals' outfielders, but ideally, they are adding an above-average bat to boost their lineup. Roman Anthony Anthony finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting while appearing in only 71 games. The Red Sox already signed him to an extension, so if there were a player who was considered untouchable, it would be him. Kristian Campbell Campbell spent most of his season at second base before being optioned to Worcester in June. With his role on the Boston roster uncertain heading into next season, Kansas City would be assuming risk by acquiring him with the expectation of making an immediate impact. He also received an extension last season, so despite his struggles, that makes a move less likely. Trade Scenarios Below are three different trade scenarios involving Royals pitching and a Red Sox outfielder. 1. Blockbuster Trade Red Sox receive: SP Cole Ragans Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2 Boston prospect) SP John Holobetz (outside of the top 20) This trade would receive a lot of comparisons to last year’s trade for Garret Crochet from the White Sox. Crochet was traded in exchange for four prospects, two of whom were in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects at the time. Unlike Crochet, Ragans has three seasons left until free agency, which is enough to yield a bigger haul for Kansas City. Ragans and Corchet profile similarly in their first few seasons, both producing high strikeout rates and low walk rates. Below is a comparison between Ragans's career and Crochet's career before getting traded to Boston. This trade return is headlined by Duran and Garcia, both of whom help Kansas City solve issues in their lineup. Duran adds an impactful bat to the top of the lineup to pair with Bobby Witt Jr. Garcia, while maybe not quite ready to be playing every day, could be an option for a short-side platoon partner for Caglianone in right field. This could be a good way to ease Garcia into a major league lineup, but only against left-handed pitchers. The inclusion of Holobetz is mostly about adding more value to the trade and adding a pitching option for the future in Kansas City. According to MLB.com’s prospects list, his ETA for the major leagues is 2027. Assuming that there are no other trades that send away pitchers, the Royals will still have plenty of major league depth in their rotation. 2. Major Trade Red Sox receive: SP Noah Cameron C Blake Mitchell (#2 Royals prospect) SP Steven Zobac (#15 prospect) Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran This trade is headlined by Duran and Cameron. The Royals would be capitalizing on Caermon’s excellent rookie campaign and would be hoping to “trade high” on him. Cameron finished 4th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and has five years of control left. He may not be the big arm in the rotation that the Red Sox would be looking for long-term, but he would be a solid arm in their rotation for years to come. The Royals would also be dealing from another position of strength, catcher depth. With the emergence of Carter Jensen on the MLB roster last season and Salvador Perez being ever-present in the Royals lineup (and signing a contract extension), Mitchell does not have an easy path to gametime at the MLB level. The Red Sox adding him would not require them to move on from either Connor Wong or Carlos Narvaez, but it would give them flexibility moving forward at the catcher position. Zobac is on the 40-man roster and could potentially see major league action despite his struggles last year. He could maybe contribute by bolstering the Red Sox in the bullpen. 3. Minor Trade Red Sox receive: SP Kris Bubic Royals receive: OF Masataka Yoshida OF Miguel Bleis (No. 14 Boston prospect) This trade would leave each team a little disappointed, given how much smoke there has been regarding trades this offseason, but this would leave each team slightly better off. Yoshida would provide a bat to the Royals' outfield, with some time as a designated hitter, and they could get a return for Bubic instead of letting him walk in free agency. The Red Sox would add an all-star caliber pitcher to their rotation and free up salary space to pursue one of the big bats in free agency. The inclusion of Bleis adds a high-upside outfielder who has also suffered many injury setbacks in his career. His speed and defense would profile well for Kauffman Stadium's large outfield eventually. Interested in reading this situation from the Red Sox perspective? We have a complementary piece on our Red Sox site! View the full article

Despite recently trading for Sonny Gray, the Red Sox still have notable holes in their rotation. Both Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval will be returning from long-term injuries, and Tanner Houck is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. There have been many reports that the Red Sox and Royals have explored trades that would include sending a starting pitcher to Boston and an outfielder to Kansas City. Most recently, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the following after meeting with Royals GM J.J. Picollo. Let’s do a deep dive into who could potentially move to Kansas City, how they would fit, and what it might take to bring them to Kansas City. Top Potential Trade Targets Jarren Duran Duran has been the name most often mentioned in trade talks. He would slot perfectly into the top of the lineup, and having Duran and Witt batting one and two, respectively, would be among the most dynamic in baseball to watch. Duran has accumulated over 15 fWAR in his last three seasons, led the American League in triples the past 2 seasons, led the league in doubles in 2024, and was six behind the leader, Bobby Witt Jr., in 2025. His .332 OBP from last season would rank fourth in the Royals roster, better than Jonathan India’s OBP of .323, who the Royals acquired last offseason for his on-base abilities. Duran would also be a clear upgrade to the Royals’ outfield production. Based on Fangraph’s projections, Duran’s projected fWAR of 2.6 is just one shy of the Royals’ entire outfield projected fWAR of 3.6. Masataka Yoshida Yoshida has been primarily a designated hitter in his time in Boston, but has still played some outfield in recent years. In his first three seasons in Boston, his production dropped noticeably compared to his time playing in Japan. His defense will not provide an upgrade in Kansas City. When playing the field in 2023, his Fielding Run Value was -11. In 2023 and 2024, his offensive production was well above league-average with a wRC+ over 110 and a wOBA over .330. His production in 2025 dipped, but he missed the first 90 games of the season recovering from a shoulder injury. If the Royals trade for him, they will hope that he can return to his pre-injury form. There is also the issue of money. Yoshida is owed $18.6 million in each of his next two seasons before becoming a free agent. That salary would make him the third-highest earner next year behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Seth Lugo. While the Royals are not necessarily opposed to committing that amount to one player, that salary could be prohibitive for adding other talent to the roster. Jhostynxon Garcia Garcia had a very brief cameo in the majors. He has had a lot of success in the minor leagues, posting an OPS of at least .810 in 2024 and 2025. He could be an intriguing option for the Royals, but he might not be the impact bat that could help the Royals in the immediate future. If included in a trade, Outfielders Less Likely To Be Involved Wilyer Abreu Abreu has been a valuable contributor to the Red Sox. One issue with Abreu is that he has been shielded from starting against left-handed pitchers. Since the Royals are also in search of a platoon partner for Jac Caglianone, Abreu is less likely to be a fit in Kansas City. Ceddanne Rafaela Rafaela is a defense-first center fielder. While his offense was decent in 2025, the Royals will be looking for more power in the outfield. His 95 OPS+ from last season would be an improvement over most of the Royals' outfielders, but ideally, they are adding an above-average bat to boost their lineup. Roman Anthony Anthony finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting while appearing in only 71 games. The Red Sox already signed him to an extension, so if there were a player who was considered untouchable, it would be him. Kristian Campbell Campbell spent most of his season at second base before being optioned to Worcester in June. With his role on the Boston roster uncertain heading into next season, Kansas City would be assuming risk by acquiring him with the expectation of making an immediate impact. He also received an extension last season, so despite his struggles, that makes a move less likely. Trade Scenarios Below are three different trade scenarios involving Royals pitching and a Red Sox outfielder. 1. Blockbuster Trade Red Sox receive: SP Cole Ragans Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran OF Jhostynxon Garcia (No. 2 Boston prospect) SP John Holobetz (outside of the top 20) This trade would receive a lot of comparisons to last year’s trade for Garret Crochet from the White Sox. Crochet was traded in exchange for four prospects, two of whom were in MLB.com’s top 100 prospects at the time. Unlike Crochet, Ragans has three seasons left until free agency, which is enough to yield a bigger haul for Kansas City. Ragans and Corchet profile similarly in their first few seasons, both producing high strikeout rates and low walk rates. Below is a comparison between Ragans's career and Crochet's career before getting traded to Boston. This trade return is headlined by Duran and Garcia, both of whom help Kansas City solve issues in their lineup. Duran adds an impactful bat to the top of the lineup to pair with Bobby Witt Jr. Garcia, while maybe not quite ready to be playing every day, could be an option for a short-side platoon partner for Caglianone in right field. This could be a good way to ease Garcia into a major league lineup, but only against left-handed pitchers. The inclusion of Holobetz is mostly about adding more value to the trade and adding a pitching option for the future in Kansas City. According to MLB.com’s prospects list, his ETA for the major leagues is 2027. Assuming that there are no other trades that send away pitchers, the Royals will still have plenty of major league depth in their rotation. 2. Major Trade Red Sox receive: SP Noah Cameron C Blake Mitchell (#2 Royals prospect) SP Steven Zobac (#15 prospect) Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran This trade is headlined by Duran and Cameron. The Royals would be capitalizing on Caermon’s excellent rookie campaign and would be hoping to “trade high” on him. Cameron finished 4th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting and has five years of control left. He may not be the big arm in the rotation that the Red Sox would be looking for long-term, but he would be a solid arm in their rotation for years to come. The Royals would also be dealing from another position of strength, catcher depth. With the emergence of Carter Jensen on the MLB roster last season and Salvador Perez being ever-present in the Royals lineup (and signing a contract extension), Mitchell does not have an easy path to gametime at the MLB level. The Red Sox adding him would not require them to move on from either Connor Wong or Carlos Narvaez, but it would give them flexibility moving forward at the catcher position. Zobac is on the 40-man roster and could potentially see major league action despite his struggles last year. He could maybe contribute by bolstering the Red Sox in the bullpen. 3. Minor Trade Red Sox receive: SP Kris Bubic Royals receive: OF Masataka Yoshida OF Miguel Bleis (No. 14 Boston prospect) This trade would leave each team a little disappointed, given how much smoke there has been regarding trades this offseason, but this would leave each team slightly better off. Yoshida would provide a bat to the Royals' outfield, with some time as a designated hitter, and they could get a return for Bubic instead of letting him walk in free agency. The Red Sox would add an all-star caliber pitcher to their rotation and free up salary space to pursue one of the big bats in free agency. The inclusion of Bleis adds a high-upside outfielder who has also suffered many injury setbacks in his career. His speed and defense would profile well for Kauffman Stadium's large outfield eventually. Interested in reading this situation from the Red Sox perspective? We have a complementary piece on our Red Sox site! View the full article

Many of you might remember Miguel Andujar from his Yankees days. The Yankees’ No. 5 and the overall 59th-ranked prospect (per Baseball America) burst onto the scene for the Bronx Bombers with a breakout rookie campaign in 2018 that saw him go yard 27 times, drive in 92 runs, and put up a wRC+ of 129. He finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind only future Hall of Famer Shohei Ohtani. As high as those highs were, oh boy, were the lows to follow ever low. Over the next six years of his career, from 2019-2024, Andujar hit a total of 16 home runs, 11 fewer than he hit in just his rookie year. The other numbers were just as bad over that span. His OPS+ and wRC+ were both a measly 81. Now, you might be asking me, on what planet is this player a good fit for the Toronto Blue Jays? Well, the answer would be… this one! Allow me to explain. Miguel Andujar saw a bit of a career resurgence this past season, in which he split time between the Athletics and Cincinnati. While the home run power from his rookie season did not return, his ability to hit for extra bases saw him put up a healthy .822 OPS, along with a 125 wRC+. We can also dive a little deeper. I think it’s safe to say the Blue Jays have developed a soft spot for a certain type of player, specifically those who put the bat on the ball, have pesky at-bats, and don’t strike out! The Jays as a team last year struck out the second least per game in MLB, with just 6.82 K/9, only slightly behind the Royals at 6.77 K/9. This is an area where Andujar excels. In 2025, he had a whiff rate in the 86th percentile and a K% in the 87th percentile. Something important to keep in mind is that Andujar is not a good defender, posting an OAA of -7 in 2025. Like I said, not good. But he does come with some versatility — having made starts at third base, first base, and both outfield corners in 2025 — which the Jays also value. The goal of signing a Miguel Andujar isn’t to take at-bats away from a Davis Schneider. Instead, it's to maybe add a bit more of an offensive threat to a lineup where a Myles Straw or IKF type might otherwise slot in. The hypothetical Andujar signing also comes with the assumption that most of his work would come against lefties, against whom he posted an impressive .986 OPS, compared to his .759 OPS against righties. And none of this is to undermine the value of Straw, who would almost certainly replace Andujar late in a game whenever the Jays had a lead. All in all, I think Andujar would make a great addition to the 2026 Blue Jays. He’s a good low-risk, under-the-radar signing that likely comes cheap on a one-year deal, offering some solid upside. View the full article

The Twins have had no shortage of left-handed hitting corner outfielders for years, but as they’ve continued to amass this style of player, their depth has turned into a logjam. With much of the roster in need of significant upgrades, it’s time to either look to deal from this depth chart or (at the very least) stop targeting left-handed corner outfielders with their limited resources. The Twins did not fully prioritize prospects during their historic trade-deadline selloff in 2025. Instead, they chose to focus on players who were at or near MLB-ready status. They seemed especially keen on starting pitching and left-handed-hitting outfielders. In terms of pitchers, there’s no such thing as too much depth. On the position player side, however, it made less sense. Despite having both current and future depth in the corner outfield, they acquired James Outman, Alan Roden, and Hendry Mendez, all left-handed-hitting outfielders who will likely spend most of their time in the corners. We will likely see all of them in 2026, as they filter into the majors and share playing time with fellow members of the brotherhood Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins. Despite the playing time being difficult to project, the Twins tendered a contract to Trevor Larnach this winter, though whether he remains on the roster heading into 2026 remains to be seen. A strange detail that has surfaced is that the Twins' hangup on trading Joe Ryan at the deadline to the Red Sox was reportedly Boston’s refusal to include an MLB-level outfielder in the deal. We can now assume this means either Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu—both of whom are left-handed-hitting corner outfielders whom Boston is currently open to dealing. It seems as though the Twins cannot help themselves when it comes to this type of player. Despite significant questions across the roster, they appear hyper-focused on maintaining (and even adding to) the corner outfield endlessly. Acquiring an established, borderline All-Star-level player would undoubtedly be an upgrade over the current group, but why spend limited resources on doing so? The current logjam includes plenty of players of all ages, with interesting skills that could translate into strong production. Wallner has shown everyday player upside in the past. They just targeted Roden, and clearly viewed him as a regular in left field. There will be no shortage of names who can at least rotate in and out, not to mention the top prospects set to debut at some point in 2026. Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez are in Triple-A St. Paul, and despite injury concerns in their past, they're likely a couple of good months away from kicking down the door to the majors. Though it’s always a risk to go into a season leaning on the production of players who have yet to debut, you still want the at-bats available to them when they’re ready. If Jenkins and Rodriguez are ready midseason, the Twins can likely find creative ways to get them in the lineup. Continuing to add MLB-level players to that depth chart would make things increasingly difficult. When it comes down to it, it’s a question of asset management. Of course, it’s difficult to say we don’t want to see the Twins add a good player at any position. Still, if they’re going to spend the kind of capital it would take for such a deal, why do it at arguably the deepest position in the organization? They could go into the season with the current group of left-handed corner outfielders with reasonably high expectations, even if two or three get injured throughout the year. Is that really the part of a 92-loss roster the front office should be hell bent on upgrading? Nor is this just about proactively adding to that group. Minnesota was (wrongly, it now seems) steadfast in their expectations when shopping Max Kepler in trades over the final few years of his tenure with the team. They surprised everyone by tendering a contract to Larnach. They believe this player type has a certain baseline value—a high offensive floor, especially because they take up the larger side of a theoretical platoon; middling but non-zero athleticism; and a chance to find power—that has led them to cleave too tightly to some of them in recent years. Regardless of the Twins' short and long-term plans, they should be content with their group of left-handed corner outfielders. They’ve drafted, signed, traded for, and developed a long list of names in this group. If they’re confident in their abilities, they should have more than enough options to cycle into this role for years to come. They have talent and upside across all ages, which is more than they can say for several other positions at the MLB level and in the organization as a whole. They should, indeed, be moving players like this out, rather than bringing any more in. It’s time for the Twins to stop throwing their limited assets at left-handed corner outfielders and take a look at the rest of the roster. Do you agree? View the full article

As November drew to a close, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier dropped a bombshell of a rumor. According to him, the Boston Red Sox are interested in acquiring left-handed starter Cole Ragans from the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have long been connected to the Red Sox in trade rumors since each team has depth at a position the other covets. The Red Sox still need starting pitching, even after the Sonny Gray trade, and the Royals need offensive firepower in their outfield. First, for those who may not know who Ragans is, let’s dive into a bit of background on him. The Royals acquired Ragans when they traded Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers in 2023. He began in the Royals’ bullpen and worked his way to the starting rotation fully in 2024. He was an All-Star in 2024 and flashed an incredible amount of potential. He does come with an injury risk though, as all pitchers do in modern baseball. He’s had two Tommy John surgeries, in 2018 and 2019. In 2025, he was limited to just 61 1/3 innings over 13 starts due to groin and rotator cuff injuries. Even still, Ragans is a pitcher worth trading for. He's 28, has three cheap years of team control remaining, and produced impressive numbers on the mound when healthy last year (2.68 xERA, 2.50 FIP). Let’s see how the Red Sox could potentially pull the deal off. The Blockbuster Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans, 1B Vinnie Pasquantino Royals Receive: OF Jarren Duran, OF Jhostynxon Garcia, LHP Payton Tolle This trade would net the Royals the Red Sox’s top two prospects in Tolle and Garcia, while giving them a day-one starter in the outfield in Duran. They’d likely promote Garcia up to their main roster fairly quickly as well. This deal also allows for them to get a flamethrowing left-handed starter with a high ceiling to immediately replace Ragans in their rotation. Tolle is young and has the makings of a future top-of-the-rotation arm, but he’s still lacking a true secondary offering and parting with him to acquire a more finished product isn't a wild thought. For the Red Sox, this trade not only nets them a true number two starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet, it also fixes their first base problem. Pasquantino has a name made for Boston, and even though he’s left-handed, he becomes the biggest power threat in the lineup. He slugged 32 home runs last year with 14 of those coming at home. If we overlay his home spray chart over Fenway Park, we see a ton of offensive potential. He slashed .264/.323/.475 in 2025 while leading the team in home runs and being in the top four of most offensive categories for the Royals. Defensively, Pasquantino leaves quite a bit to be desired, but his offensive production more than makes up for it. Like Ragans, the first baseman in 28 years old and comes with three remaining years of control. This is A LOT to give up in any trade, but fixing the team's biggest problems for the next three seasons in one fell swoop might be worth the price of admission. The Likelier Option Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans Royals Receive: OF Jarren Duran, LHP Connelly Early Now we have a much more simplified version of the trade above. Fewer pieces are moving teams and the Red Sox are still searching for an answer to their first base problem, but the Royals get their guy and rotation replacement in both Duran and Early. If we look back to last year’s Winter Meetings, Craig Breslow traded multiple pieces for Garrett Crochet. So far, only two of them have made it to the major leagues with the White Sox. In this deal, the Royals would be able to plug both returning pieces into their Opening Day line up and rotation and feel very comfortable as they move forward through the season. It appears as though Early is in contention for a rotation spot once spring training gets underway for the Red Sox so there is no reason to believe he’d be battling even more for a spot with the Royals. To some, Early’s ceiling is higher than Tolle’s, so the Royals could be more interested in him since he has performed better at the major league leave than Tolle to date. Early also has a postseason start under his belt, which could help tip the scales in his favor as well. Losing Duran and Early would be a blow, but this is what a cost-controlled ace costs in baseball. Don't let Ragans' 4.67 ERA fool you — every expected metric pegs him as a top-15 starter in baseball over the past two seasons. The Kansas City Youth Movement Red Sox Receive: LHP Cole Ragans Royals Receive: OF Wilyer Abreu, RHP Brayan Bello And now for something completely different, sort of. Instead of minor leaguers who have just had a cup of coffee with the big-league club, the Royals could be more interested in one of the current rotation pieces for the Sox in Bello. In addition to him, they could want to go younger than Duran in the outfield and bring in two-time Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu to man right field at Kauffman Stadium. There’s debate as to which outfielder should be moved in a deal for Ragans — we discussed it at length on Episode 30 of the Talk Sox Podcast — but if the Royals want longevity, then Abreu may be their guy. Bello would slot in immediately as their number three starter behind Michael Wacha and Kris Bubic. He’s signed to a long-term contract through what should be his peak seasons and he’s looking to build off a very good 2025 season. He’s not a direct replacement for Ragans, but you know what you’re getting with him and he would give their rotation another dependable arm. For those wondering why Abreu has to be included here: Remember that Bello's deal is heavily backloaded. He'll be paid roughly $15 million over the next two seasons, before earning $16.1 million in 2028 and $19.1 million in 2029. The small-market Royals may not be keen on that fact. At this point, before the Winter Meetings, everything is just speculation. Ragans may not be moved, Duran or Abreu may both be on the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox, and Sonny Gray may actually be the number two starter in Boston. I doubt all of those come to pass though. The Royals are desperately searching for offensive talent to put in their outfield, and the Red Sox have to keep pace with the Blue Jays and Yankees as we head into 2026. What’s different this time around, though, is that the Red Sox hold the bulk of the bargaining power. With the addition of Gray, the Red Sox shouldn’t feel rushed to make a move for Ragans at the upcoming meetings if the Royals are demanding too much in return (which many will say is this case here). Play the waiting game, explore other starting options, and then re-engage the Royals as the Winter Meetings start to wrap up and see if the price drops some. While he’s not the most proven starter on the trade market, Cole Ragans should be at the top of the wish list for the Boston Red Sox, and they should be willing to get a bit uncomfortable to make it happen. View the full article

The 2025 Brewers ended the season with the majority of their roster locked down for 2026, and coming off a season with the most wins in baseball, that is a good thing. However, it does make it harder to identify obvious positions to upgrade. With William Contreras locked in at catcher; the Andrew Vaughn/Jake Bauers combo at first base; Brice Turang ascending to new heights at second base; Caleb Durbin finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year race at third base; and Joey Ortiz running hot and cold at the plate while providing premier defense at shortstop, the infield looks locked and loaded for 2026. While Alex Bregman would look great playing third for the Brewers in 2026, that’s the type of upgrade that rarely comes via free agency in Milwaukee. Is there room then in the outfield to add value? The 2025 Brewers outfield was very good; the Crew were joined by the Yankees, Cubs, Padres, and Red Sox as the only teams having all three primary outfielders rank in the top 35 in outfielder fWAR for the season (Sal Frelick 3.6, Jackson Chourio 2.9, Isaac Collins 2.6). All three are good baseball players, and there is reason to believe all three can continue to improve as Chourio grows into his tools, Frelick nears his prime age, and Collins continues to gain experience in the outfield as part of his late breakout. Collectively, this trio hit 42 home runs, with Chourio accounting for exactly half of those. Because they're both small by big-league standards, it’s fair to wonder how much more power Collins and Frelick have. Much like Bregman at third, Kyle Tucker would fit just fine in Milwaukee’s outfield, but Brewers fans won’t find the former Cub under their Christmas tree. Given the Brewers' payroll expectations and their recent history of not sacrificing defense for offense, there are very few players who would qualify as a potentially obtainable upgrade in Milwaukee’s outfield. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have arguably the best defensive player in baseball (Ceddanne Rafaela) patrolling center field. On either side, they have Gold Glove right fielder Wilyer Abreu and last year’s consensus top prospect and budding superstar, Roman Anthony, in left. They also have Jarren Duran, who produced the 7th-highest fWAR among all position players in 2024 with 6.8 and another 3.9 fWAR this season. The Red Sox have been rumored to be shopping Duran since last winter, and are doing so again right now. Would Duran be an upgrade for the Brewers, and how would he fit in? Duran clearly has more power than either Collins or Frelick. He hit 16 home runs as part of 70 extra-base hits in 2025 and had 21 and 83 of those, respectively, in 2004. Those surface-level stats dwarf the Brewers’ trio. Duran is an exceptional baserunner, finishing in the top 10 in FanGraphs BsR value three seasons in a row. He took a step back at the plate this season, but any regression back toward his 2024 level would be an upgrade for the Brewers. HR Total xBH SLG wRC+ Duran 2024 21 83 .492 131 Duran 2025 16 70 .442 111 Chourio 21 55 .463 111 Frelick 12 35 .405 114 Collins 9 34 .411 122 On defense, Duran profiles best as a center fielder. Statcast rated him highly in center for 2024, with a strong throwing arm, before the Sox moved him to left this season so Rafaela could take over. Interestingly, Statcast also rates Chourio as a better center fielder than corner outfielder, and even Frelick did not rate positively in left. Only Collins receives positive defensive ratings in left field. Either of these outfield alignments could work: Chourio RF, Duran CF, Collins LF Frelick RF, Duran CF, Chourio LF The team could, therefore, effectively platoon Frelick (who batted .301 but only had six extra-base hits (all doubles) against left-handed pitchers in 174 plate appearances in 2025) with Collins (who had 13 extra-base hits in 143 plate appearances against southpaws) around Duran and Chourio, with Blake Perkins or Garrett Mitchell slotting in as a fifth outfielder instead of a fourth. The Red Sox, like most teams, would like to add pitching. Their bullpen, in particular, needs help. Aaron Ashby was excellent down the stretch for the Brewers, until they wore him out in the playoffs, and he looks like a potential late-inning reliever whom a manager could count on to lock down an opposing lineup across multiple innings. Ashby’s contract for 2026 matches almost exactly with what Duran is expected to earn in arbitration this winter, which should work well for both teams, as the Red Sox are reportedly looking to save a large portion of their budget for a corner infielder like Bregman or Pete Alonso. Trading Ashby would sting, but his contract is a little elevated for a non-closer Brewers reliever. FanGraphs recently rated Robert Gasser as the 10th-best prospect in the Brewers system, and he’s already demonstrated success at the MLB level. He could be a solid back-end rotation option or swingman for Boston. With Boston looking to compete in 2026, maybe a package of Gasser, Ashby, and Nick Mears—three arms that would all immediately join the Red Sox pitching staff—would entice Boston to send Duran to Milwaukee. The Brewers have the depth to replace Ashby and Mears in their bullpen, and Gasser is one of a handful of starters who currently don’t have a rotation spot. Acquiring Duran should open up plenty of options for the Brewers to deal from their outfield depth, and they could eventually explore trading two of Frelick, Collins, and Mitchell. Duran, with three years of team control remaining, would be a good candidate to be traded again by the Brewers during either of the next two offseasons. Matt Arnold and company have stocked their roster and minor-league system with many good players. Still, they may need to find a way to make marginal upgrades at positions already considered strengths to reach that next level of success and win their first pennant since 1982, or their first World Series ever. Duran is one of a limited set of realistic ways they could do so. View the full article

The Toronto Blue Jays shocked the MLB world the night before American Thanksgiving by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. With Cease joining an already strong starting rotation — featuring Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, and now Cody Ponce as well — the Jays significantly bolstered their pitching staff. Although Berríos is expected to be ready for spring training, how he will fare during his recovery this offseason remains a big question. Regardless of who claims the fifth rotation spot, the Blue Jays are now positioned to have one of the best starting rotations in all of MLB. Yet, with such a significant contract added to their books, the question now shifts to whether the Blue Jays can still add a top-tier bat. The Blue Jays are expected to exceed the second Competitive Balance Tax threshold (set at $264 million) for a second consecutive year in 2026. That means they will pay a 30% tax on all overages (the penalty for teams that surpass the luxury tax threshold two years in a row) as well as a 12% surcharge on every dollar they spend past $264 million (the penalty for surpassing the first luxury tax threshold by more than $20 million). If their CBT payroll reaches $284 million ($40 million over the first CBT threshold), they will face both a significantly higher surcharge rate and the penalty of their first-round draft pick moving down 10 spots. The Jays surpassed this threshold in 2025, and they are already very close to surpassing it again. So, these financial and draft consequences could affect their decision to add more high-salary players. Signing a bat like Bo Bichette, who DiamondCentric projects to earn a $25 million annual salary, could put the Blue Jays over the fourth CBT threshold, at which point the surcharge on overages rises to 60%. Re-signing Bichette could still be worth it, especially if he stays at second base, where he played in the World Series. Last season, he struggled defensively with a -12 DRS and -13 OAA, both the lowest among shortstops. Yet, it would cost the Blue Jays significantly more than just the value of his salary. The Blue Jays still also need an upgrade at closer, or at least a new middle reliever, so they might prefer to add a bat via trade rather than sign another expensive free agent. Acquiring a player this way could help them keep their luxury tax bill down and possibly avoid further draft penalties. Potential trade targets include infielders Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks and Brandon Lowe of the Rays. Other players rumored to be available include Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. That said, since the outfield is already a logjam, any new bat is more likely to be an infielder. In any case, the Blue Jays are clearly set up to be one of the top teams again next season. Their offseason decisions in the coming weeks will be closely watched as they look to further improve an already elite team. View the full article

Of the 36 players selected in the first round of the 2017 MLB Draft, 30 of them have played in the big leagues. Some have done well: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Rogers, and Drew Rasmussen have all appeared in an All-Star Game. Others haven’t done so well. DL Hall is somewhere in the middle. Dayton Lane Hall was the 21st overall pick by the Baltimore Orioles that summer, and big things were expected of the southpaw from Valdosta, Georgia. During his first five seasons in the Orioles chain, Hall moved up one level per year, and although he struck out batters at the rate of 32.6% from 2017-2022, he walked hitters at a rate of 13.3%. Quickly, it became clear that health and control would be the limiting factors for him, rather than the magnitude of his talent. He graded out quite well as a prospect, with a plus fastball and above-average secondary offerings in his curve and changeup. His fastball occasionally hit triple digits, but he needed to find consistency in both location and movement. Hall pitched a combined 29 games in 2022-2023 for the Orioles. He posted an ERA+ of 94 and a FIP of 2.44 in that time span. But when the opportunity for Baltimore to trade for a Cy Young-winning starter came up, Hall and Joey Ortiz were shipped to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes. Hall started the 2024 season in the Milwaukee rotation—effectively taking Burnes’s spot—but made only four starts before going on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained left knee suffered while fielding a bunt. He was later transferred to the 60-day IL, after he aggravated the knee issue in a rehab stint. Hall returned to the mound late in the season. He made two starts and six relief outings in September, striking out 22 batters in 22 innings while walking eight. The stuff remained very good. At the start of the 2025 camp, Hall was battling for the fifth spot in the rotation when he went on the 60-day IL with a left lat strain. He returned in late May, but as a reliever. He served as an opener in three games and relieved in 17 others. Once again, Hall hit the injured list in mid-August with a strained right oblique and missed six weeks, returning in time to make a relief outing in the last game of the year. Hall is now being considered a reliever, instead of a starter, though he has six pitches in his arsenal: a four-seamer that hits 95, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball, and sinker. “I’ve found a little bit of a niche in the bullpen. Anytime I go out there, I’ve kind of found a comfort zone," Hall told reporters in August, when asked about his preference for starting or working out of the pen, Hall has the skills and is learning to pitch all over again, but fighting off injuries will determine if he becomes a high-leverage reliever or if he is just a ‘back of the pen’ guy. At 27, he is in the prime of his pitching career, and the Brewers are waiting to see if his career takes off, but he needs to stay off the injured list. In that sense, unfortunately, this could literally be his make-or-break campaign. Can DL Hall find his comfort zone in 2026 and show the baseball world the pitcher that the Brewers traded Corbin Burnes for? Feel free to start the conversation in the comments section below. View the full article

There was a point in 2025 where New York Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga looked like he was ready for the breakthrough that would let him live among the game's top-tier arms. He pitched to a 1.39 ERA in the first half of the season and ended June with a 26.2 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate that each represented his best in an individual month up to that point. Then, the second half hit. As the Mets faltered in the standings, Senga played his part. His ERA skyrocketed to 6.56, his strikeout rate fell to 20.5 percent in July and August, and his walk rate sat at nearly 13 percent. He was touched for hard contact over 40 percent of the time (by FanGraphs' measure). While he's expressed a desire to stay in Queens, the Mets' attempt to rebuild their roster toward another postseason run has, naturally, led to Senga's name landing on the trade block this winter. Given their absence of starting pitching, it's also natural to ponder whether the San Diego Padres should make a run at the embattled starter. Despite the second-half swoon, Senga isn't without value. He has a career 3.00 ERA (3.82 FIP) in Major League Baseball, with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and 11.1 percent walk rate across 285 innings. He's also averaged 5.5 innings per start, with longevity proving to be something of an issue for Padres starters in 2025. That's a lot of boxes checked by a player with two years remaining on his contract (and a club option for a third season). Those two years at a $28 million price point makes a whole lot of sense for the Padres, at least on paper. You're getting a pitcher with clear upside in a manner that would provide some stability in the starting five for the next two years, rather than relying on a veteran likely coming in on a one-year contract. To say nothing of the third-year club option that checks in at another $15 million. That's entirely affordable considering the upside. Again, though, we're talking about the addition on paper. There's plenty of reason for pause when analyzing Senga as a potential trade target. While he's averaged decent innings when healthy, he also hasn't been particularly healthy in either of the last two years. He threw just five innings in 2024 before calf and shoulder injuries brought his season to its untimely end. A hamstring issue in June this season was likely a factor in some of his second-half issues that resulted in him spending the stretch run in Triple-A. And then you have to consider those struggles, too. Senga missed fewer bats and was much more liable to serve up barreled contact in July and August than in the months prior. For a team that struggled down the stretch like the Mets did last year, sending one of your highest-upside arms to the minor leagues speaks volumes about where they felt he was from a production standpoint. The upside is obviously tantalizing. Which is why, on paper, a pursuit of Senga on the part of the Padres makes a ton of sense. You get mid-to-front of the rotation production on at least a two-year contract. Numerous vacancies exist on that side of the staff. In an ideal world, you acquire Senga and stabilize your rotation in '26 and '27. But the upside is also likely a reason the Mets wouldn't give Senga away for a soft return, with the injury and performance woes in the last two seasons presenting an absurdly complex scenario. The Padres have so few resources for a trade in their organization at present. Can they afford to dispense with those resources in pursuit of a pitcher who offers so much variability in terms of outcomes? That would be difficult to reckon with when stability should be the name of the game. It borders on being a frustratingly mind-bending scenario for the San Diego Padres. Do you add a veteran starter looking to rebuild value on a reasonable contract or pursue the volatile arm that might cost you prospects but look healthy on the payroll (comparatively)? Not that we've heard anything on the part of interest the Padres could have. But considering where the rotation stands, any arm deemed available by way of the trade winds is going to be an obvious connection. Whether this particular arm could or should be a target, however, is a question with an answer that could roll on for miles. View the full article