DiamondCentric

The Twins lost on Opening Day 2-1 in Baltimore. More importantly, the 2026 Sire of Fort Myers has (finally) been announced. Here's some discussion on the controversy surrounding this year's Sire of Fort Myers plus an overview and reactions from the Twins game.View the full article

Yet another season of Twins baseball is underway; the season may have started with a whimper, but there are 161 more to play. There are always lively conversations in the forums, and every week we'll highlight three of the best. We don't know what to expect from the new head of Twins baseball operations, Jeremy Zoll. While he worked and was promoted under former president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, he also spent years in other organizations, including the Dodgers under Andrew Friedman. What flavor will he bring to the Twins? OG Nick Nelson gets it started with his excellent season preview. Agree? Disagree? What say you? Not feeling the optimism this spring? Perhaps you missed a few things? What else do you look forward to? Speak up! There's been considerable change atop Twins leadership this winter. What effect might that have in the case of GM Jeremy Zoll? Twins fans weigh in... View the full article

“Hope springs eternal in the human breast: Man never is, but always to be blest.” Alexander Pope was an 18th-century poet reflecting on our tendency to believe that better days are always ahead. Today, we celebrate the optimism of Opening Day and six more months of baseball by taking a look at some of this week's best thread topics on the Brewer Fanatic forums. Brewers: Brewers (Misiorowski) vs White Sox (Smith): 3/26/26, 1:10pm Emotions always run high with Jacob Misiorowski on the mound. The leadoff home run to Chase Meidroth tested our patience but was, in a way, on-brand for Milwaukee by Opening Day standards. Miz and our Brewer Fanatic community kept their composure on the way to the largest margin of victory to start the season since 1988. Come relive the thrills of yesterday’s game! Brewers baseball is back and even more fun with the passionate fans on Brewer Fanatic. Brewers: Season Predictions Thread Predictions are all the rage right now. Polymarket might make you wealthy, but our Season Prediction Thread can make you internet famous, at least a little bit. The consensus on the forum is to expect over 90 wins, a return to the playoffs, and team-leading performances from Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Brice Turang. It is always fascinating to look back at our collective preseason wisdom later in the year. It is not too late to weigh in on how you think the 2026 season will go! Minors: Spring Breakout 2026 Dozens of Milwaukee‘s top prospects were on display across two Spring Breakout games last week. This thread includes highlights and reactions, including big plays from Jett Williams, Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Eric Bitonti, Andrew Fischer, Cooper Pratt, Bishop Letson, Jaron DeBerry, and more. On a related note, the Nashville Sounds begin their regular season tonight. Be sure to follow the best minor league coverage in our Daily Minor League Link Report. Game time starts at 5:35 PM Central. The Brewers' off day is a perfect opportunity to join us in the minor league forum. View the full article

Sometimes, it's nice to just have a little luck on your side. While it isn't luck that drove the San Diego Padres draft Jackson Merrill, the Friars were fortunate that the high school shortstop took to his new position so quickly. He was rewarded with a contract extension that could have him patrolling center at Petco Park through at least the 2034 season. However, coming off an injury-marred 2025 campaign, Merrill will have to show that last year was the aberration and he is more like the 2024 phenom who took the National League by storm. Padres Center Fielders At A Glance Starter: Jackson Merrill Backup: Bryce Johnson, Ramon Laureano Depth: Jase Bowen, Nick Schnell Prospects: Ryan Wideman, Braedon Karpathios Padres fWAR ranking last year: 10th out of 30. Padres fWAR projection this year: Third out of 30. The Good When the Padres took Merrill with the 27th pick in the 2021 draft out of a Maryland high school, they thought they had their shortstop of the future. What they didn't know was they were getting their center fielder of the future. It just so happened that the Friars had a need for a center fielder entering spring training in 2024 and decided to try their 20-year-old prospect in a tough defensive position he had never played before. From there, Merrill showed that he can play anywhere on the diamond. All he did was put up a .292/.326/.500 slash line with 24 homers, 90 RBIs and 16 steals in 156 games to finish as the runner-up to Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes for NL Rookie of the Year and won the NL Silver Slugger for center. He also finished ninth in NL MVP voting. But his 2025 campaign was most definitely not a repeat performance. He signed a nine-year, $135 million contract extension at the beginning of the season that begins in 2026. Then, the injuries hit. First, it was a strained hamstring in April that sidelined him for about a month. Then, it was a concussion in mid-June that kept him out the minimum seven days. Finally, a sprained left ankle and bone bruise put him out of action for 13 days. He still put up solid numbers, with a .264/.317/.457 slash line with 16 homers and 67 RBIs. Likewise, his defense was still really good. Merrill has good speed and can cover gap to gap with ease as well as with a strong arm, offering plenty of reasons for optimism after a health-rejuvenating offseason. The Bad That being said, you have to consider Merrill's injuries when looking at the downturn in his numbers. His hamstring and ankle injuries limited his running and the concussion can have any number of effects. Merrill attempted just three steals in the entire 2025 season and was successful just once. That came after 16 steals on 19 attempts as a rookie. The lack of steals could also be because he hit in the top half of the order in 2025, with probably too many games in the cleanup spot. As a rookie, he hit ninth a lot and mainly in the bottom half of the lineup. Responsibility is a key part of being a star, but perhaps it was a jump too far for someone who is still just 22 years old. His exit velocity only dropped from 90.4 mph to 89.7 from 2024 to 2025, but that sent him from the 70th percentile to the 46th. Merrill still chases too many pitches. with his 37.8% rate in 2025 sitting in the seventh percentile. He also struck out more, although his 22.4% rate is right at the MLB average. Injuries, pressure, and perhaps just an old fashioned sophomore slump caught up with him. The Bottom Line Merrill turns 23 in April and is still learning how to be an MLB player. But the talent is undeniable; he can be one of the best center fielders in the game with his combination of offense and defense. With the changes that are being contemplated to the Padres' top of the lineup, Merrill could be better served as a leadoff or No. 2 hitter, allowing his speed to became a bit more of a factor. Notching 20 steals should be easy for someone like Merrill, who should be a much better hitter this season than he was as a sophomore. A 20-homer, 20-steal season is very attainable, and he could challenge for 100 runs if he is ahead of Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup. If injuries hamper Merrill again, Bryce Johnson is a capable backup who had a breakthrough offensively in 2025, putting up a .342/.383/.434 slash line in 84 plate appearances. Ramon Laureano also has center field experience, as he showed in 14 games with the Padres after being acquired at the trade deadline. View the full article

Can the Toronto Blue Jays make the uphill trek back to the World Series and get the job done this year? In this video, we break down the team's strengths, drawbacks, key offseason transactions and players who need to step up to bring the Jays to the mountaintop in 2026. Enjoy!View the full article

Sweet Lou and Ol Gregg break down Opening Day in excruciating detail, from performance, to manager decisions, to fan reaction. What does this mean for Trevor Larnach (and Royce Lewis, and Justin Topa, and Joe Ryan)? Listen using Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-twins-off-daily-podcast/id1741266056 Listen using Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4tb78XlurcPTYYSsARdbD7 Listen using iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-twins-off-daily-podcas-167548600/ Listen using Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/nvclbt0w Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@twinsdaily View the full article

Often when a publication talks about "longest-tenured" players, they are referring to big-league service time. I like to look at it a bit differently. How long has a player been in the Minnesota Twins organization? When did that player sign with the Twins, whether they were drafted, an international signing, a Rule 5 pick, and MLB free agent, etc.? I include the word "consecutively" because if a player leaves the organization for any time and then comes back. When Torii Hunter came back to the Twins for his final season in 2015, he had been away for seven seasons. Similarly, there are two interesting cases on the 2026 roster. First, Taylor Rogers is back. He was drafted by the Twins in 2012 out of the University of Kentucky and remained in the organization until Opening Day 2022 when he was traded to the Padres. After six big-league seasons with the Twins, he played for five organizations over the past four seasons. He's back, but he's not near the top of the list. The second example is much more difficult to decide. Cody Laweryson was the Twins 14th round draft pick in 2019 out of the University of Maine. He remained with the Twins through the 2025 season. It was great to see him get called up to the big leagues with the Twins, even if it was just for the final two weeks of the season. He pitched well in that small sample size. However, following the season, the Twins DFAd the tall, right-hander with the deceptive delivery. I wasn't surprised that the Los Angeles Angels claimed him on November 6. I also wasn't surprised that he remained on the Angels 40-man roster throughout the entire offseason. However, just as spring training was to start, the Angels DFAd and released him. A week later, Laweryson was in Fort Myers, signing at minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training. Six weeks later, many may have been surprised to learn that he had earned his spot on the Twins Opening Day roster. Tremendous story! Should he be on this list? This list has always included the word "consecutive," but he was with another organization for four months. He probably never got a paycheck from the Angels. He never played in a game with the Angels. But the word consecutive is pretty definitive. So, while Laweryson would otherwise be inside the Top 10 longest-tenured Twins, he isn't on the list. So that's why I just wrote a big paragraph about him. Without further ado, have you jotted down your guesses for which 12 (or 25) players have been in the Twins organization the longest. I feel like, of the Top 12, most Twins fans will be able to name nine or 10 of the players. Let us know how you did. Honorable Mentions Before we get to the 12 players who have been in the organization the longest consecutively, here are the next 13 on the list of Top 25 longest-tenured Twins players. #25 - Joe Ryan - Trade - 7/22/21 #20 - Travis Adams - Draft - 7/21/21 #20 - David Festa - Draft - 7/21/21 #20 - Jaylen Nowlin - Draft - 7/21/21 #20 - Jake Rucker - Draft - 7/21/21 #20 - Kyler Fedko - Draft - 7/21/21 #16 - Cleiber Maldonado - IFA - 1/15/21 #16 - Jose Olivares - IFA - 1/15/21 #16 - Yasser Mercedes - IFA - 1/15/21 #16 - Danny De Andrade - IFA - 1/15/21 #15 - Kala’i Rosario - 2020 draft - 7/1/20 #14 - Aaron Sabato - 2020 draft - 6/23/20 #13 - Marco Raya - 2020 draft - 6/18/20 THE TOP 12 LONGEST-TENURED TWINS #10T - OF Emmanuel Rodriguez - July 2, 2019 I’ll lump these three players together for this exercise. Before Covid, the international signing period started on July 2nd (changed to January 15th in 2021). The players would sign, but they would not play in DSL games that season. They would make their professional debut the next summer. However, with Covid, there wasn’t a 2020 minor league season. So, this group really had to wait from July 2nd, 2019, until May of 2021 to make their professional debuts. Emmanuel Rodriguez was the big signing that year from the Twins, $2.5 million. Once he started playing and showing his skill set, he flew up the Twins prospect ranking showing power and the ability to get on base at a very high percentage. He swings and misses a lot, but he is an electric ballplayer who gets on base, hits the ball hard, runs the bases, and plays good defense. He really just needs to stay healthy and then… an opportunity. #10T - C/OF Ricardo Olivar - July 2, 2019 Olivar signed that same day but for a $20,000 bonus from Venezuela. Obviously he came in with a lot less fanfare than Rodriguez, but once he got to play, he showed big-league potential. He began in the FCL in 2021 and hit .204 but got on base 34% He repeated the level in 2022 and this time hit .349/.442/.605 (1.05 WHIP) with 12 homers, three triples, and five home runs. He moved up to the Mighty Mussels in 2023, and in 100 games, he hit .285/.403/.452 (.855) with 28 doubles and 10 homers. He was also 12-for-13 in steal attempts. In 2024, he played 81 games in Cedar Rapids and hit .275/.381/.441 (.822) with 19 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs. He ended the season with 19 games in Wichita. That’s where he spent the 2025 season. In 93 games, he hit .264/.356/.412 (.768) with 13 doubles and 13 home runs, and 13 stolen bases. #10T - RHP Miguelangel Boadas - July 2, 2019 Boadas also signed out of Venezuela to an undisclosed signing bonus. Boadas is the least known of this group, but that is because he has missed time due to injury most years. He debuted in 2021 in the DL. In 12 games and 34 2/3 innings, he posted a 3.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. He came to the States in 2012 and pitched 12 games out of the FCL Twins bullpen. He posted a 5.53 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In 2023, he made 11 starts for Fort Myers and went 0-2 with a 7.75 ERA in 36 innings. He moved up to Cedar Rapids where he started eight games of the 11 he pitched in. However, in early June, he was placed on the injured list. In July, he was moved to the 60-Day Injured list and underwent Tommy John surgery. He missed the rest of the season and all of the 2025 season. The Twins sent him to the Arizona Fall League after the season. He pitched in four games and posted a 1.54 ERA in 11 2/3 innings. He also pitched in the Fall Stars game and the league’s championship game. He was hitting 97 mph with the fastball and showing a sharp slider. #9 - RHP Matt Canterino - June 23, 2019 This name might surprise you. Matt Canterino was the Twins 2nd round pick in 2019 out of Rice University. That summer, he made seven short starts between the GCL and Cedar Rapids. He didn't pitch in 2020. In 2021, he began the season in now-High-A Cedar Rapids. He made five starts and posted a 0.86 ERA over 21 innings with 43 strikeouts and four walks. But then he was hurt and didn’t pitch for the Kernels the rest of the season. In 2022, he moved up to Wichita and pitched in 11 games (10 starts). He had a 1.83 ERA. In 34 1/3 innings, he had 50 strikeouts. With his immense talent and stuff, the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. He came to spring trainings and looked great, but each year, he had an issue with his elbow, forearm, or shoulder. He hasn’t pitched in a regular-season game since 2022. After spring training in 2025, the Twins removed him from the 40-man roster. He had surgery, and the Twins signed him to a new two-year, minor-league deal. He will start the 2026 season on the 60-Day Injured List for St. Paul. And he’s a really good guy that so many people want to see have an extended period of health and an opportunity to get some big-league time. #8 - OF Matt Wallner - June 17, 2019 Wallner went to Forest Lake High School and was named Mr. Minnesota as the state’s top high school senior baseball player. Big leaguers Michael Busch and Isaac Collins were also finalists that season. The Twins drafted him, as a pitcher, in 2016. He wisely went the college route. . He had previously committed to play at the University of North Dakota where he was going to pitch. However, UND cancelled their baseball program. Wallner found his way down to Southern Mississippi. He pitched as a closer the first couple of seasons. But ultimately, he was a three-time All American thanks to his powerful draft. The Twins drafted him again in 2019, this time with the 39th overall pick. Like most minor leaguers, Wallner didn’t play at all in 2020 which makes it even more impressive that he made his MLB debut late in the 2022 season. He split both 2023 and 2024 between St. Paul and the big leagues. He would struggle, mash in Triple-A and then come up and play well including the power. He was worth 2.2 bWAR both of those years despite playing in just 76 and 75, respectively. His OPS’s were .877 and .894 In 2025, Wallner played in 104 games. He hit .202/.311/.464 (.776). He hit 16 doubles and 22 homers. However, it came in at just 0.6 bWAR. Few hitters in the game hit the ball harder than Wallner when he does make contact. After a slow start this spring, Wallner hit .333/.439/.604 (1.043) with four doubles and three homers. We know that there is little connection between spring training stats and regular season stats, but it would be amazing to see what numbers Wallner could put up if he’s healthy and maintains that 1.000 OPS! #6T - RHP Cole Sands - June 18, 2018 Sands was well known in baseball circles in his high school years and was drafted in 2015. Instead of signing, he went to Florida State. Three years later, the Twins made him their fifth round draft pick. He made his pro debut in 2019 and pitched for Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers before ending the season with one start for Double-A Pensacola. After not pitching in 2020, he posted a 2.46 ERA over 19 games and 80 1/3 innings. He had 96 strikeouts. He moved up to St. Paul in 2022. He had 72 strikeouts over 61 2/3 innings. He also made his big-league debut that season. He pitched in 11 games (3 starters) and went 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA over 30 2/3 innings. In 2023, he transitioned fully to the bullpen. In 19 games in St. Paul, he posted a 1.47 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He had 41 strikeouts and just 10 walks in 30 2/3 innings. In 15 relief appearances with the Twins, he posted a 3.74 ERA over 21 2/3 innings. Sands had a breakout season of sorts for the Twins in 2024. He went 9-1 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. In 71 1/3 innings over 62 outings, he had 85 strikeouts to just 12 walks. He took a small step backwards in 2025. In 72 innings over 69 games, he posted a 4.50 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and had 64 strikeouts and 19 walks. With most of his teammates traded at the trade deadline last year, he will need to be reliable in 2026 if the Twins want to have a chance. He’s fully capable, when healthy. #6T - OF Trevor Larnach - June 18, 2018 Larnach led an impressive ensemble cast at Oregon State to the 2018 College World Series championship. That year, his junior season, he hit .348/.463/.652 (1.116) with 19 doubles and 19 homers. That summer, the Twins made him the 20th overall pick in the draft. He spent a few weeks at Elizabethton and a month in Cedar Rapids that year. He split the 2019 season between Fort Myers and Pensacola and hit .309/.384/.458 (.842). Larnach spent the 2020 Covid season in St. Paul. Then very early in the 2021 season, he received his first promotion to the big leagues. He played in 51 big-league games in 2022 and hit .231/.306/.406 (.712) with 13 doubles and five homers. That was worth 1.4 bWAR which is the highest mark of his career. In 2024, he hit .259/.338/.434 (.771) with 17 doubles and 15 home runs. That was worth 1.3 bWAR. Last season, Larnach played in a career-high 142 games. He hit .250/.323/.404 (.727) with 24 doubles and 17 home runs. That produced an OPS+ of 99, and his bWAR was just 0.1. Since he primarily DHd in 2025, there were a lot of questions about bringing him back or even tendering him a contract for the season. They did, and he hasn’t been traded. Now it is incumbent upon him to produce. He is under team control through the 2027 season. #4T - LHP Kody Funderburk - June 13, 2018 An All-American first baseman at Mesa Community College and then Dallas Baptist, the Twins drafted him in the 15th round as a pitcher. He had pitched in college, but the majority (big majority) of his college success was with the bat. The southpaw was given the opportunity to start for several years of development. Midway through the 2022 season, he made the transition to the bullpen. He started the 2023 season at Double-A but quickly moved up to Triple-A St. Paul. He ended the season with 11 games in the big leagues. He gave up just one run on six hits over 12 innings in 11 games. He struggled in 2024 in the big league and in St. Paul. He came back in 2025 and was quite solid, especially in the season’s second half. The Twins have three lefties in their Opening Day bullpen but being able to work with and learn from Taylor Rogers and Anthony Banda while sitting out in the bullpen with LaTroy Hawkins, 2026 should be a big season for Funderburk. He has another four seasons of team control before becoming a free agent. #4T - C Ryan Jeffers - June 13, 2018 After three seasons with an OPS over 1.000 at UNC Wilmington, the Twins made Jeffers their second-round pick. The choice surprised many in the “Draft Expert” industry. Many questioned his defense, but the Twins scouts saw a guy with strong defensive potential with some development and techniques. After the draft, he played for Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids (then Low-A). In 2019, he split time between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A Pensacola. Combined, he hit .264 with 16 doubles and 14 homers. It was enough for him to be included on the Twins developmental squad in 2020. Because of injury, he was called up to the Twins and played in 26 out of the 60 games and more than held his own, posting a .791 OPS with three homers. The next two seasons saw ups but also plenty of downs including some time back in the minors. Both years, he posted a batting average under .210 and an OPS under .675.The past three seasons, he has split backstop duties with Christian Vazquez. In 2023, he had his best season to date, hitting .276 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 homers. In 2024, he hit just .226, but had 22 doubles and 21 homers. He continued to basically split time behind the plate, but he also got quite a bit of time as the Twins DH. In 2025, he had some really strong peripherals but less home runs (9). As we hit Opening Day, Jeffers can become a free agent at the end of the 2026 World Series. Should the Twins attempt to extend him so that he can remain on this list next year? #3 - RHP Bailey Ober - June 22, 2017 The Twins selected Bailey Ober out of the College of Charleston with their 12th round pick in 2017. He had been an All American as a freshman but needed Tommy John surgery and missed his sophomore season. While his star had less shine, he came back, pitched and helped his team win. In college, he went 24-9. In the minor leagues, he had a record of 20-5 with a 2.41 ERA (rookie league through AAA). The Twins were also very patient with him because of the injury concerns. But when he pitched, he was great. He didn’t pitch at all in 2020. So it was somewhat surprising that he was called up to the Twins early in the 2021 season and made 20 starts as a rookie. He made just 11 starts in 2022 due to a leg injury. He took off in 2023. He was 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 26 starts. He had 146 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings. In 2024, he had 191 strikeouts in 178 2/3 innings over 31 starts. Both seasons were worth 3.0 bWAR. He struggled in 2025 and went 6-9 with a 5.10 ERA. In 146 1/3 innings, he had 120 strikeouts. He enters the 2026 season as the Twins #2 starter. There are certainly concerns entering the season about his reduced velocity. That will certainly be worth watching. #2 - 3B Royce Lewis - June 17, 2017 For just the second time in Twins history, and the first time in 34 years, the Twins lost over 100 games. It was an organization-worst 103 losses. Because of that, the Twins earned the #1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. The Twins were thrilled to select Royce Lewis with the top pick out of JSerra Catholic High School in California. He quickly signed and then homered in his first professional at-bat in the GCL. Lewis’s career has been filled with ups and downs. He was a Top 10 prospect in 2018 and 2019. The Twins had him working at their alternate site (CHS Field) in 2020, and then he missed the 2021 season with a torn ACL. He returned in 2022 and even hit .300 over a dozen games in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he tore the ACL again and missed another year of playing time. In 58 games in 2023, he hit .309 with 15 homers. In 2024, he homered in his first at-bat, but then he got hurt running out a double in his second at-bat and missed about two months. He played 82 games in 2024, and 106 games in 2025. Combined, he hit .235/.288/.416 (.705) with 34 doubles and 29 homers. 2026 marks his second of four arbitration seasons, so he can’t become a free agent until after the 2028 season. #1 - OF Byron Buxton - June 13, 2012 After nearly a decade of competitive teams, the 2011 Twins were not a good baseball team. They finished 63-99. The only positive of that season was that they truly earned the second overall pick in the 2012 draft. The Astros took Carlos Correa with the first pick. The Twins selected prep outfielder Byron Buxton with the next pick and signed him on June 13, 2012. In the minors, he was once a minor-league player of the year, and twice the #1 overall prospect in the game. He debuted in June of 2015, at just 21. He wasn’t ready, but he filled a need. In 2017, Buxton not only won the Gold Glove award, but he was named the Platinum Glove winner. You all know the story. Injuries cut into his playing time. After playing 140 games in 2017, he didn’t play in 100 or more games until he played 102 games in 2024. In 2025, he put together, arguably, the best season of his career. He played in 126 games and hit .264/.327/.551 (.878) with 21 doubles, seven triples, and 35 home runs. He earned his first career Silver Slugger. He was also 24-for-24 in stolen base attempts, and despite the Twins rough season, he finished 11th in MVP voting. If you look at his total numbers since the beginning of the 2019 season, he has hit .256/.318/.534 (.852) with 134 doubles and 140 homers while 71-for-78. He has played in two All Star games. This spring, he was able to represent Team USA in the WBC. His contract continues through the 2018 season. So, there you have it, the players in the Twins organization who have been in the system the longest, consecutively. I’ll guess that at least a couple of the names may not surprise you. I’m certain that you wouldn’t have guessed all 12 on this list. I wouldn’t have. View the full article

Opening Day is here! Jack and Spencer react to the Brewers' first regular-season game, break down new acquisition Jake Woodford, and discuss Jackson Chourio's fractured hand. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View the full article

We're seeing something special—something rare. Not since Ryne Sandberg, Shawon Dunston and Mark Grace have the Cubs had three key players spend the majority of a decade together on the field, at positions and in places in the lineup where their connectedness and mutual importance were obvious and determined the fate of the team each year. With Nico Hoerner agreeing to a deal Thursday that will extend his tenure with the Cubs through 2032, that's exactly what we're going to see, again. In fact, this core could be deeper and even longer-lasting than the Sandberg-Dunston-Grace group, to which Sammy Sosa was added late in a long run. Hoerner and Dansby Swanson have been teamed up around the keystone for the Cubs since the start of 2023, and Swanson's seven-year deal doesn't end until the fall of 2029. Pete Crow-Armstrong joined the mix at the tail end of 2023, but the trio only started two games together that year. Between Crow-Armstrong's inconsistency and some nagging injuries to Hoerner and Swanson, by the middle of 2024, they'd only played another 20 times alongside one another. From June 22 through the end of 2024, though, they made 76 shared starts. In 2025, they started together another 144 times, as Crow-Armstrong established himself and Hoerner enjoyed a career year. Already, then, they've made 243 starts as a group, counting Opening Day's lineup against the Nationals. Though injuries will surely intercede at some point in the next four years, there's a solid chance for these three to end up playing 800 times together as Cubs—especially if they make the playoffs multiple times in those years and make deep runs. Swanson and Hoerner are each notable for their willingness to play through minor injuries, and they're relatively good at it. Together, those three anchor the Cubs' elite defense, and they'll continue to do so for the balance of the decade. Look for more than two players showing up on the lineup card together, and the frequency of occurrences diminishes quickly. It's just the nature of baseball. Even in their first few years together, before Dunston's role changed and injuries began to limit Sandberg, the aforementioned trio of infielders usually appeared together only 120-130 times a year. Last season's incredible stability won't be the norm, but Swanson, Hoerner and Crow-Armstrong are all high-volume players. Remarkably, they're in position to spend over half a decade together as regulars, and Swanson and Hoerner could surpass Dunston and Sandberg in terms of their tenure together as a double-play combination. Just as notably, this essentially locks in the team's infield for the next four years. Michael Busch can't become a free agent until after 2029, like Swanson. He and Alex Bregman (under contract through 2030) are set at the corners, with Swanson and Hoerner up the middle. This will be the closest the Cubs have ever come to the famously long-lasting Dodgers infield of Ron Cey, Bill Russell, Davey Lopes and Steve Garvey. That group was intact for over eight years; this one won't get that far. Their overlap will be historic, though, within the context of the Cubs. It's also a bit of a balm to the hurt of many Cubs fans, who held out hope that the core of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and others would stick around this way. Swanson, Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong, Bregman, Busch, and even Ian Happ (part of the last core, as well as this one, and likely to depart after this season), Matt Shaw and Moisés Ballesteros could form the remarkably stable group of good players that the last decade promised, but couldn't quite deliver. Of course, that Rizzo-led group did something this team has yet to do: win a World Series. For that matter, this group has yet to win their own division. Since Swanson's arrival, the team has not finished below .500, and it's increasingly likely that they'll remain a winning club for the rest of his contract, but they're yet to catch and pass the Brewers. That could change this season, but the front office didn't wait to see whether it would do so before committing long-term dollars to Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner, to go along with Bregman and Swanson. They've taken a leap of faith, just as the Ricketts family did by extending Jed Hoyer last summer. The players who will determine the success or failure of the Cubs for the next half-decade are all here, now. They're being given a chance to do something special together, and to build an unusually excellent bond with the fan base along the way. No one said it would be easy, though. View the full article

It's been tough for Royals fans as two days of baseball have passed and Kansas City has not yet played a game. I get that networks want to hype and stretch out "Opening Day", but it feels weird for the Royals to be on the sideline for so long when some teams will have nearly two games under their belt by the time first pitch happens in Atlanta on Friday. Still, separation and anticipation can make the heart grow fonder, or whatever the saying is, I guess. With the Royals finally opening their 2026 campaign against the Braves at Truist Park on Friday evening, it seemed like a good idea to share a few bold predictions about this Royals team as a group. In my last post, I made five Royal players' predictions for the upcoming season. In this one, I will share four general predictions about this Royals squad and share my reasons for those bold statements. Thus, let's take a look at those four predictions and what they could mean for the Royals as a whole in 2026. The Royals Will Win 88 Games and the Division PECOTA projects the Royals to win around 85 games, the best projected record in the American League Central. In fact, this is how Baseball Prospectus' projection system expects the AL Central to shake out in 2026. Kansas City Royals: 85.3 (SimW) - 76.7 (SimL), 45.9% Div%, and 60% Playoff% Detroit Tigers: 83.9 (SimW) - 78.1 (SimL), 35.6% Div%, and 49.3% Playoff% Minnesota Twins: 78.8 (SimW) - 83.2 (SimL), 12.1% Div%, and 20.3% Playoff% Cleveland Guardians: 75.4 (SimW) - 86.6 (SimL), 5.3% Div%, and 8.5% Playoff% Chicago White Sox: 69.8 (SimW) - 92.2 (SimL), 1.1% Div%, and 1.6% Playoff% Looking at those projections and how I think the rest of the division will fare, I think many of the teams below the Tigers will trend down and underperform their projections. As for Detroit, I think they will outperform their 83.9 simulation wins total, but not by much. Thus, I think the Royals will outperform their win total by three, based on those factors and those of other teams in the division. Kansas City should be able to reach the 88-win benchmark in 2026. That was the number the Guardians won the division with in 2025. I think 88 wins will be good enough for the Royals to win the AL Central, with the Tigers coming up short, just like last season, to the Guardians, with 86 wins. The Royals Will Make the ALCS This is a bold one, but I believe that if the Royals make the postseason, they will go on a run and reach the American League Championship Series. I think the Royals face the Orioles in an ALDS rematch and once again come out victorious over Baltimore in four games. That should bring them to the ALCS, which will be against the hated Yankees. The Royals go toe-to-toe with the Bronx Bombers, taking them to Game 7. However, I feel like the Royals fall just short of a pennant, especially with the series finale taking place in New York. Kansas City losing, in a debilitating fashion, to the Yankees again is tough to stomach for Royals fans who can't stand the Evil Empire. It is especially tough to think about for Royals fans alive in 1976 who watched Chris Chambliss send the Yankees to the World Series with a walk-off home run against the Royals. While a loss to the Yankees would be disappointing, it would be in the ALCS, which is one round better than their 2024 exit in the ALDS. Thus, in 2027, that would be the year the Royals would get over the hump and back in the World Series. It would be much like 1980, when the Royals got over the Yankees' hump and into their first World Series in franchise history. The Royals Will Finish 8th in Runs Scored Per Game Fangraphs' Depth Charts has released its team projections for the upcoming season. They are a little more pessimistic about the Royals in their projections, expecting Kansas City to win 82 games and finish second again in the AL Central division. Depth Charts is not very optimistic about the AL Central overall, as it projects the Detroit Tigers to win the division with an 84-78 record. One aspect that stood out in the Royals' projection was their runs scored per game (RS/G). Depth Charts projects the Royals to produce a 4.60 RS/G. That would be the eighth-best mark in baseball. The Royals' offense has upgraded this season. Gone are Hunter Renfroe, Mark Canha, Cavan Biggio, and MJ Melendez (all on the Opening Day roster in 2025), and in their place are Isaac Collins, Starling Marte, Lane Thomas, and Jac Caglianone. That is a massive upgrade offensively, and should bode well for better results in 2026. Even some experts are optimistic about the Royals' lineup heading into this upcoming season. Kansas City didn't acquire a big-name player as hoped earlier in the offseason. They weren't able to trade for Jarren Duran or Brendan Donovan, two names tied to the Royals during the Winter Meetings. That said, despite missing out on those two players, this offense will be considerably better than the one that ranked 22nd in wRC+ a season ago, according to Fangraphs. The Royals' Pitching Staff Will Rank 15th in Runs Allowed Per Game Kansas City didn't have a whole lot of injury luck with pitchers last year, especially starting ones. Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright didn't throw a pitch for the Royals in 2025, Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic missed considerable time on the IL, and Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Erceg, and Seth Lugo were also sidelined for shorter periods due to injuries. However, that didn't seem to have a huge impact on the Royals pitchers' results in 2025. According to Fangraphs, the Royals ranked 6th in pitching ERA with a 3.73 ERA and 9th in pitcher fWAR with a 17.5 mark. Kansas City overcame those injuries with breakout seasons from arms like Noah Cameron and Carlos Estevez. They also saw new pitchers emerge like Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert, both coming from San Diego in the Freddy Fermin trade at the Trade Deadline. The Royals' pitching staff seems deeper than it was a year ago, especially at this time of the season. That said, the projections are expecting some regression from the Kansas City pitchers in 2026. Depth Charts projects the Royals to allow 4.62 runs per game (RA/G). That is tied with the Guardians for 22nd in baseball. That is a considerable dropoff, but regression due to age and new park factors could hit pitchers like Cameron, Lugo, and Michael Wacha hard in 2026. It wouldn't be surprising to see those three struggles after varying levels of success with the Royals over the past couple of seasons. If that happens, the Royals' overall pitching effectiveness, as expressed in RA/G, will drop to more mediocre numbers. However, I don't think they will fall to 22nd. I could see them finishing 15th, which would put them in the 4.45 to 4.50 RA/G range. Being in that range will be good enough to help them win 88 games, especially with their improvement in hitting and run scoring. I could also see the Royals being more aggressive with their pitching at the Trade Deadline and upgrading their rotation and/or bullpen, as they did in 2024. That should help them not just win the division, but win a playoff series against the Orioles. Unfortunately, I think the regression in pitching will come to hurt the Royals in their eventual ALCS matchup with the Yankees, who are just a little bit deeper than the Royals at this time. View the full article

Major League Baseball is implementing the new Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System starting in the 2026 season. The Statcast data from Baseball Savant provides a number of visualizations for the results of these challenges. Royals Team Performance Using ABS Overall, the Royals saw moderate success in challenges this spring. They were much more aggressive on the batting side than catching, ranking eighth highest challenge rate for batters (5.5%) and the seventh lowest for catchers (1.8%). The Royals were on the aggressive side of teams this spring, with their first challenge coming on average between the third and fourth innings in the 27 spring games in which they issued a challenge. The Royals were also the team to run out of challenges the second-earliest, losing their second challenge between the 4th and 5th innings in the 10 games in which they ran out of challenges. When it comes to overall success rate, the Royals were more successful on the catching side despite their lower volume. The Royals saw 62% of challenges overturned when challenging as catchers and only 34% of challenges overturned as batters. Their success rate was above league-average (60%) for catchers, while their batter success rate fell below the league average (46%). Baseball Savant also measures success rate against expected challenges, which accounts for “pitch location, number of remaining challenges, runners on, and ball/strike/out situation”. As a batting team, the Royals recorded 2.7 fewer overturns than expected. Defensively, however, they performed much better, finishing with 5.9 more overturns than expected as catchers. Individual Royals Performances Royals Batters For individuals, the sample size is rather small, with Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins accounting for most of the challenges, each with four, so these results should be taken with caution. Nick Loftin and Jac Caglianone were the best batters when it came to challenges relative to expectation. Loftin won both of his challenges, resulting in 2.0 overturns above expected. Caglianone went 3-for-3 in his challenges with 1.7 overturns above expected. Notably, Caglianone was also able to reverse a strikeout and gain a walk in his challenges. John Rave and Isaac Collins were the worst performers in challenges. Collins lost all four of his challenges, which resulted in 2.9 fewer overturns than expected. He challenged at the highest rate of all Royals at 17.4%, and his aggressiveness may reflect the struggles he had at the plate this spring. Rave lost both of his challenges, resulting in 2.1 overturns fewer than expected. Rave also fell victim to the most challenges by the opposing team, with opposing catchers going 3-for-3 against him and producing 2.2 more overturns than expected. Royals Catchers Royals catchers overall performed well, with five of the seven challenging catchers outperforming expectations when challenging. Elías Díaz was the standout performer with 2.1 overturns more than expected, winning three of his four challenges. Salvador Perez was the only catcher with more than one challenge to finish below expectation, with 0.2 overturns fewer than expected, winning three of his six challenges. For catchers, it is worth looking at how batters performed against them to see if they are able to “fool” batters and induce poor challenges. Carter Jensen was the catcher most challenged, with 12 challenges against him. The batters won seven of those challenges, with 0.2 more overturns than expected. Notably, batters were able to flip four strikeouts and add one walk with challenges while Jensen was catching. Perez also saw hitters earn 1.0 overturns more than expected in their two challenges against him. Blake Mitchell and Luca Tresh were the most effective performers when facing challenges. Mitchell and Tresh each induced 0.2 fewer overturns than expected in their four and three challenges, respectively. Takeaways While the Royals' batters challenge more often than catchers relative to league averages this spring, their success rates indicate that they would be better suited to favor challenges from their catchers moving forward. As the 2026 season progresses, teams will continue to find their ideal strategies in challenging. For the Royals, it will be important to hone in their strategy and balance in challenging as key overturned calls could meaningfully impact close games. With the Royals projected to be on the fringe of AL playoff contention, marginal advantages in ABS challenges could be decisive to their success in 2026. View the full article

Opening Day didn't go according to plan for the Twins, who fell 2-1 against the Baltimore Orioles in a game that felt winnable from the first inning to the last. Minnesota created traffic all afternoon, but failed to capitalize, finishing just 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position while grounding into three double plays. The difference came late. A string of singles and a sacrifice fly in the seventh inning against Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa pushed Baltimore ahead, and the Twins never recovered. It spoiled a very strong showing on the mound from Joe Ryan, who looked every bit like a frontline starter. For the Twins to stay competitive this season, Ryan must be at the top of his game. There were plenty of encouraging signs from Ryan’s outing, even if the final result did not reflect it. Here are four observations from his 2026 debut. Fastball Velocity Back One of the biggest storylines from spring training was Ryan’s dip in velocity. In his final Grapefruit League start, his fastball averaged just 91.9 miles per hour, raising some concern about how his stuff would play when the games started to matter. He also dealt with a back issue that kept him from participating in the World Baseball Classic. It was easier for fans to be worried about his performance because of the injury issue, though it appeared to have been resolved. However, that concern disappeared quickly on Thursday. Ryan averaged 93.9 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball and touched 96 early in the game. That's not just a return to form; it is slightly above last year’s 93.7 average. The added life showed up in the results. Ryan generated 16 swinging strikes on 85 pitches, including five on the fastball alone. He struck out seven hitters across 5 1/3 innings, consistently beating Orioles hitters at the top of the zone. In Command Velocity is one thing, but Ryan’s outing was defined by how well he controlled the baseball. He attacked a dangerous Baltimore lineup and rarely fell behind. Ryan allowed just one hit while pitching into the sixth inning and walked only two of the 19 batters he faced. He filled up the zone with 58 strikes on 85 pitches and avoided damaging contact almost entirely. Only four balls were hit hard into fair territory: two fly balls, one ground ball, and one line drive. He used a six-pitch mix to keep batters off-balance all day. It was the kind of outing that demonstrates why Ryan’s profile works so well when everything is synced up. He doesn't need to overpower hitters when he's locating at that level. Curve Versus Sweeper A more subtle but intriguing development was Ryan’s pitch mix. He featured both a curveball and a sweeper, and while they may look similar at a glance, the differences matter. The sweeper averaged 79.9 miles per hour and showed more horizontal movement, cutting across the zone (see photo above). The curveball came in slightly slower at 78.7 miles per hour, with more vertical depth. That separation, even if small, forces hitters to make quicker decisions and can lead to uncomfortable swings or poor contact. Last season, he threw the curveball only 4% of the time, but it generated a 42.3 Whiff%. If Ryan can consistently differentiate those two shapes, it gives him another way to disrupt timing, especially against lineups that are geared to handle his fastball. The curve is a better pitch against lefties, in particular, than the sweeper is. New Slider Ryan also debuted a tweaked version of his slider. In previous seasons, it often behaved more like a cutter, blending into his fastball shape. On Thursday, it showed more depth and a slightly reduced velocity. The pitch averaged 87.5 miles per hour, down slightly from 87.9 last season, but the bigger change was in its movement. It had less of the rising action that defined last year’s version, and instead featured a more traditional slider break. He only threw it seven times, so it is a small sample, but the adjustment is worth watching. If it becomes a consistent weapon, it could help him better handle hitters on both sides of the plate. The Twins may have dropped their opener, but Ryan gave them exactly what they needed from the front of the rotation. He looked healthy, his velocity returned, and his command was as sharp as ever. Add in a few subtle pitch mix changes, and there's reason to believe he has another level to reach. That should be a scary proposition for the AL Central. If this is the version of Joe Ryan the Twins are getting in 2026, the results will follow, even if Opening Day didn't go their way. What stood out about Ryan’s performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

It was easy to view David Hamilton as a lesser piece in last month’s deal with the Boston Red Sox, which also brought pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan to Milwaukee. The Brewers never saw it that way. Hamilton’s career numbers at age 28—a .222/.283/.359 slash line and a 77 wRC+—don't look like those of a dangerous player, but Milwaukee’s brain trust projects him as a difference-maker in their infield mix. Acquiring Hamilton was a key reason why they were comfortable sending incumbent third basemen Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler to Boston. “Hats off to [Matt] Arnold and his crew for making sure he was included in that deal,” Pat Murphy said on Thursday. “We lost a great one in Durbin. He was on-brand for us, and then to get [Harrison and Drohan], and then to get a kid like Hamilton, we’re really fortunate.” It didn’t take long for him to declare Hamilton his annual breakout pick in spring training, but Murphy, who speaks regularly about needing the right "who" on his roster for performance to match potential, was not convinced at first. “I joke with him a lot that early on, I easily could say that I just couldn’t see it in this kid,” he said during the Brewers’ exhibition series with the Cincinnati Reds leading up to Opening Day. “I just couldn’t see it. And I didn't know if it would translate. I didn’t know how he would accept an identity conversation, talking about what type of player you have been and what you could be.” Hamilton’s greatest tools are those that the Brewers value highly, particularly during Murphy’s tenure as manager. His average sprint speed of 29.3 feet per second ranked in the 95th percentile of players last season. That quickness makes him a valuable baserunner (+7 career baserunning runs, according to Baseball Savant) and gives him the potential to be an excellent defender at multiple positions. He also makes solid swing decisions, being selective in the zone and chasing at a lower rate (25.1% for his career) than the average hitter. To turn those skills into more consistent results, the Brewers told Hamilton to focus on hitting line drives, particularly to the opposite field. He posted a decent 94 wRC+ as a rookie in 2024, largely by hitting an excellent 38.3% of his batted balls within the launch angle sweet spot range of 8 and 32 degrees. Last year, his sweet spot rate fell to 30.8%, and his line drive rate from 28.0% to 21.8%. “A kid with that skill set that's a .290 lifetime on base, that's got to change,” Murphy said. “You've got to get to first. Part of offense is touching first safely. And he does have a good ball-strike, so it doesn't always translate [to reaching base]. So now it's how is your flight plan? How are you putting the ball in play? I think that's what we're excited about, to see him make that adjustment and work for it.” Fortunately for the Brewers, that vision aligned with Hamilton’s goals and the brand of baseball he prefers to play. “This is kind of right up my alley,” Hamilton said. “Playing the game hard, running the bases hard, stealing, grindy at bats. So I’m definitely loving it here so far.” “He's just taken everything in,” Murphy said. “And I hope it translates throughout all six months, because he can be a force.” While Jake Bauers and Brandon Lockridge received the most public attention for their Cactus League performances, Hamilton was also a spring training standout, hitting .333/.393/.510 (133 wRC+). Most notably, he hit 30.4% of his batted balls to the opposite field, after being a pull-happy hitter in his first three big-league seasons. Hamilton is not the starter at any position, but by pairing him with Luis Rengifo at third base and Joey Ortiz at shortstop, the Brewers intend to give him plenty of at-bats against right-handed pitching. He drew the Opening Day start at third against a right-hander, playing precisely the kind of baseball he and the Brewers want to see. In five plate appearances, Hamilton reached base four times, starting with a catcher’s interference on a late, compact swing to foul off a 1-2 fastball on the outside corner. In his next turn, he showed bunt before hitting an infield single off the second base bag and later stole third base. He also drew two walks and made a slick barehanded play at the hot corner. 258d77fb-3e840ab4-b70064b7-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 “It’s what we've been seeing all spring,” Murphy said. “He's in a good spot in his game and his career. He's in a good spot, and hopefully he realizes he can make a difference for us.” Hamilton will get plenty of opportunities throughout the season to make that impact. Time will tell whether he blossoms into the player the Brewers believe he can be, but he showed how that might look in their first regular-season game. View the full article

Bold predictions are always a tricky exercise. What feels bold to one person might seem completely reasonable to another. Think back to last season. Predicting a career year for George Springer after a .674 OPS would have raised some eyebrows. Predicting a team that won just 74 games to go from worst-to-first and push a World Series to Game 7? That would have sounded even more unlikely. That's the beauty of baseball: We can analyze rosters, project breakouts, and map out every potential storyline, but something unexpected is always going to happen, especially during (or after) a 162-game season. For this exercise, we’ll use a definition inspired by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs: A bold prediction is something you know might not be likely to happen, but you believe has a better chance of happening than most people think. Rather than keeping all the fun to myself, I asked the Jays Centre staff to share their own bold predictions for the 2026 season. The results were a great mix, including some Blue Jays taking home end-of-season hardware, dominant pitching performances, and prospect breakouts. Let's dive in. Michael Coyle: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease both throw over 200 IP and strike out over 200 batters. We’ll start with a big one. The 200-inning threshold has decreased dramatically over the past few seasons, with just three pitchers reaching it in 2025. Chris Bassitt was the most recent Blue Jay to hit that number, doing so in 2023, and the last time the team had two pitchers do it in the same season was in 2014, when R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle each eclipsed that mark. Both Gausman and Cease have come close to these numbers in the past, but neither has quite gotten there. In order for this to come true, both pitchers will need to be healthy all season and maintain at least one strikeout per inning; the latter is something that Gausman hasn’t quite done the past two seasons. It's bold for a reason, but the Blue Jays' pitching staff would be in great shape if this one comes true. Matthew Creally: Brendon Little will have a sub-2.50 ERA. Little faded down the stretch last season to the point where he was barely used in the World Series; he was likely overworked and, frankly, had some of the worst command/control in the league. But turning the page to 2026, he’s shown a new four-seamer in camp (touching as high as 98.1 mph), and the added depth in the bullpen will take some pressure off him. It's a bet on the stuff, which is probably a bit underrated. If he can make an improvement to his command, then he can shake off the rough postseason and be a true anchor out of the bullpen. Mike LeSage: Kevin Gausman will finish second in Cy Young voting. Most predictions would have a player ultimately winning the Cy Young Award, but predicting a second-place finish feels bolder in a way. Gausman has come close before. Back in 2023, he led the AL in strikeouts and finished third in the Cy Young race, behind Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray. Since then, the strikeout numbers have dipped slightly, but he’s remained highly effective. For this to happen, Gausman will need to rediscover that strikeout form while continuing his run of durability as he enters his age-35 season. He’ll also need a bit of luck, with either Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, or any of the other elite AL arms taking a step back. If there’s anyone who can thread that needle, Kevin Gausman is as good a pick as any. Bryan Jaeger: Daulton Varsho finishes top three in AL MVP voting. Varsho has changed his approach at the plate this spring, and it's paying off tremendously. He is letting the ball travel deeper and hitting the ball to all parts of the field. Letting the pitch travel more has also helped his plate vision. He's reduced his strikeouts from 28.4% last season to 7.4% this spring. Take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but it looks like he’s been making some cognitive changes with his approach. The center fielder has an astounding 1.246 OPS and .440 ISO over 54 plate appearances with five home runs, 12 runs, and 14 knocked in. He's doing all this while maintaining his ability to hit the ball hard. Varsho's 54.3 hard-hit% would be a career-high. Pair all this with his elite center field defence and smart baserunning, and you don’t have to squint too hard to see it all come together. The key to making this prediction come true is if he can stay healthy, which is a massive ask, but there is a real path to this becoming a reality. Simon Li: Austin Cates jumps into the top 15 in the Blue Jays system. Currently, Cates isn't ranked among Jays Centre's top 20 prospects, and he was outside of FanGraphs' top 40 Blue Jays prospects as well, but there is lots to like about the 22-year-old right-hander. If you look at the pitch characteristics, he gets elite ride on the fastball (21+ inches of induced vertical break) and pairs it with a devastating splitter, a pitch the Blue Jays have used effectively over the past few seasons. He’ll still need to sharpen up the breaking ball, but if he can make progress with that offering, then he’s got a legitimate three-pitch mix. Cates got the start in the Jay's Spring Breakout game this year and sat at 93 mph after showing increased velocity from the year prior. He’s a name to watch on the prospect side going forward. Sam Charles: The Blue Jays will not win more than 80 games. Not every bold prediction has to be optimistic. Sometimes, saying the unpopular answer may be the right one, all things considered. You don’t have to look too hard to see how this could be possible. The Blue Jays' lineup isn't certain to just mash. Kazuma Okamoto could struggle in his first year against MLB pitching, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer could revert to their 2023/2024 stat lines, and the surprise performances from Nathan Lukes, Tyler Heineman, and Myles Straw could easily disappear. As always, injuries would be a factor here, too. The pitching staff has lots of question marks as well. Three potential starters are already on the injured list. Dylan Cease has all the tools in the world but has had ERAs north of 4.50 in two of the last three seasons. It could happen again. The bullpen has several question marks, and on the whole, the Blue Jays' pitchers are getting old; only Trey Yesavage and Mason Fluharty are currently projected to be on the roster and under 25. Pair that with an AL East that got significantly better in the offseason, and one team is going to disappoint – and there is a chance it could be the Blue Jays. Edward Eng: Jeff Hoffman figures out the home run issues and becomes the shutdown closer the Blue Jays need. One of the many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays in 2026 will be Jeff Hoffman's performance. In 2025, he had stretches of dominance and stretches where he struggled with consistency. Consistency in the closer spot is paramount, and the Jays weren’t always getting that last season. The home runs were always an issue; his 15 allowed were second in baseball by a reliever, and the HR/FB ratio of 20% was his worst since he was a starting pitcher in Coors Field. If he’s able to figure out how to keep the ball in the ballpark, then there is enough dominance in the arm that he can be a lock-down closer. That is going to be important if the Jays wish to remain on top of the division. Leo Morgenstern: Two Blue Jays will make their first all star game this summer. Dylan Cease (somehow) has never made an All-Star Game and seems to be a likely candidate to get there this summer, but what makes this bold is finding another one. Daulton Varsho is a prime candidate to get to the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but there is a path where Kazuma Okamoto, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, or Louis Varland end up there as well. Last season, the Blue Jays sent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk to the All-Star Game, and with John Schneider set to manage the AL team in Philadelphia this year, having some extra Blue Jays on the roster is never a bad thing. Owen Hill: José Berríos makes more starts than Max Scherzer. This is a prediction about two things: Berríos' durability and Scherzer showing his age. This prediction is certainly bold, as right now, Berríos isn't throwing and is dealing with elbow inflammation that will have him start the season on the IL. For his career, Berríos has been a model of consistency, even after an uneven 2025 season; his ability to log innings has been a strength. Scherzer, on the other hand, has looked sharp in camp and is currently locked into the starting rotation, but there are always going to be durability concerns that come with a pitcher in his forties. While the upside remains, predicting a full, healthy season may be optimistic. The Blue Jays are almost certain to use more than five starters over the course of the year, and the rotation in September is rarely the same as it is in March. This prediction comes down to trusting that Berríos will be available more often in the long run, even though that is not the case at the moment. Bob Ritchie: Andrés Giménez steals 25+ bases and has a wRC+ above 114. Both these numbers are something Giménez has accomplished before, but never in the same year. He reached the 25 stolen base mark in 2023 and 2024, and hit the wRC+ number in his All-Star 2022 campaign, but that feels like it's well in the rearview mirror. However, these numbers aren’t necessarily out of reach. The stolen bases may be the hardest number to reach, as no Blue Jay even reached 20 last season, but Giménez has done it before and will be locked in as the everyday starting shortstop, so he could approach this number once again. If he does reach these numbers, he’ll join a list that in 2025 would have included names like Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and José Ramírez. Jesse Burrill: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will set the record for the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era Personally, I have been rooting for this record for a long time. The current mark was set by Oneil Cruz just last season at 122.9 mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr has come close before, with his best being 120.4 mph, also recorded last year. Here’s why it could happen: Guerrero is entering his age-27 season, which is historically right in the heart of a player's prime. Pair that with the fact that several Blue Jays made noticeable improvements in bat speed during the second half of last season, and you’ve got a recipe for some serious ferocious exit velocities. If everything clicks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Guerrero claim the top spot. Now, will any of these predictions actually come true? Probably not, but baseball has never been predictable. Over 162 games, the unexpected is inevitable, but that’s what makes it fun, and all that fun starts tonight at Rogers Centre. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox have been searching for stability at the shortstop position for quite some time. You can trace it all back to December 2022, when mainstay Xander Bogaerts departed for the sunny climate of San Diego. With that, the surprising signing of Trevor Story a few months earlier became a lot more important. Story was looking for a fresh start after toiling away in Colorado. Unfortunately, Story's tenure in Boston has been volatile, but he represents the Red Sox's best hope at the six in 2026. Story's health was a major concern from the moment he signed a six-year, $140MM contract. There were issues with his throwing arm in Colorado, and he has only appeared in 320 out of a possible 648 games to this point. Luckily, 2025 finally represented the best version of Story. The Red Sox are optimistic that he and other options can help alleviate this troublesome spot on the diamond. Red Sox Shortstops At A Glance: Starter: Trevor Story Backup: Isiah Kiner-Falefa Depth: Andruw Monasterio, Marcelo Mayer Prospects: Franklin Arias, Dorian Soto The Good: Trevor Story is a tough-minded individual. He arrived in Boston and immediately became a target of Red Sox fans. It's easy to understand why when considering the amount of money he's making and his lack of production. Still, the 32-year-old played 157 games and slashed .263/.308/.433 with 25 home runs, 31 steals, and 96 RBIs last season. That production was equivalent to 3.0 fWAR. His defense slipped (-9 Outs Above Average), but that course should be reversible. He may never match his defensive production in Colorado, but he's been above average since arriving in Boston. Plus, depth options like Kiner-Falefa, Monasterio, and even Mayer are all adept with their gloves, which should give Alex Cora plenty of options to mix and match at shortstop late in games even if Story can't right the ship. The Bad: The injury bug has bitten Story hard. He's obviously missed a ton of games in recent seasons, but those injuries have also hurt his production. Peak under the hood and his 2025 numbers don't look so hot. Story has a below average bat speed and a sky-high 26.9% strikeout rate while only drawing walks at a 5.0% clip. His arm strength ranking sat in the 36th percentile of baseball as well. Shortstop is a difficult position that requires steady defenders up the middle. Story's throwing arm has always been a focus and needs to be on target. If health is an issue again, it's no sure thing that any of Kiner-Falefa, Monasterio, or Mayer can hit well enough in the major leagues to start on an every day basis. The floor at the position is high enough, but there's no guarantee the Red Sox will get much more than replacement-level production if Story goes down again (or slows down due to age). The Bottom Line: Story will make or break the shortstop position in Boston in 2026, though the team has wisely brought in valuable depth on the bench. Another 25-25 season may be asking for a lot from someone in their age-33 season, but another strong offensive season paired with better defense would go a long way toward helping this team reach their goals. View the full article

Recent history tells us that the Miami Marlins are difficult to predict, but that won't stop us from trying. Welcome to a new season of Prediction Time. Once again in 2026, I will be monitoring the prognostications from our valued SuperSubs, Fish On First staffers and livestream guests. Individual article pages like this one will be created prior to every Marlins series and featured prominently on the FOF site. Consistent participation is key if you want to win this annual contest. Submissions only take a few seconds. Scoring system A "perfect" series is worth three points: Earn one point for predicting which team will win the upcoming series Earn one point for predicting the precise number of victories for each team Earn one point for predicting the “Series MVP” who accumulated the highest win probability added (WPA) during the series as calculated by FanGraphs (could pick a player from either team) Here is a reminder of what the 2025 season leaderboard looked like, topped by @Alec Chao. The 2026 leaderboard will be posted on Sunday night and updated between every Marlins series. If you are a SuperSub, leave a comment with your Prediction Time picks on this page, or join the Marlins Discord Server and submit there. We'll feature them on the upcoming Fish On First LIVE episode and track your points throughout the season! Any picks submitted prior to the first pitch of the series opener will be counted. If you are not a SuperSub, please consider signing up here to support the FOF staff. All Fish On First podcasts are brought to you by Jet Ski Rentals of South Florida—offering Miami’s best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski locations and over 120 boats, there’s something for every style and every budget. They’re reservation-based only. To inquire, call 305-990-2192, or check them out online at SFJetskiRentals.com. Make sure to use promo code FISHONFIRST to receive 10% off your next booking. View the full article

Twins Daily Social Club, it’s time to mark your calendars again. Before the Minnesota Twins return home to Target Field for the Home Opener on Friday, April 3, against the Tampa Bay Rays, we’re kicking things off the right way: with a pregame party at Smorgie's. Located only steps from downtown action and within easy reach of the ballpark, Smorgie’s is built for exactly this kind of gathering. The space blends a modern tavern feel with a lively, social atmosphere – perfect for reconnecting with fellow fans, talking ball, and getting into that Home Opener day energy. Expect a full Twins Daily vibe: giveaways, plenty of Twins spirit, and no shortage of baseball talk as we gear up for first pitch. Whether you’re breaking down the lineup, predicting the season ahead, or just soaking in the return of baseball in Minnesota, this is your spot to do it. And while yesterday’s result didn’t go our way, it doesn’t change the excitement of being back at the ballpark. There’s nothing like a Home Opener game at Target Field – the optimism, the crowd, the fresh start – and we’re ready to celebrate it together. Smorgie’s brings the added bonus of game-day-friendly food and drinks, with a menu full of affordable comfort favorites and a welcoming, high-energy setting designed for groups. From shareable bites to cold drinks, it checks all the boxes for a perfect pregame hangout. So rally your friends, throw on your Twins gear, and join us on April 3. Let’s pack the place, fire up the season, and head over to Target Field together. Baseball is back, and it starts here. View the full article

Box score SP: Joe Ryan: 5 1/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K. 85 pitches, 58 strikes (68.2%) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Justin Topa (-.023), Ryan Jeffers (-.015), Royce Lewis (-.014) We’re back. Opening Day has arrived, and within a few innings, it already felt familiar. Not just because baseball was back — but because of how the game actually unfolded. For the Minnesota Twins, it looked a lot like a version of last season: good pitching, missed opportunities, and a game that felt like it was waiting to be taken. But it never was. RYAN LOOK ACE-LIKE Joe Ryan got the ball to open the season, and there wasn’t much more the Twins could have asked from him. He went 5 1/3 innings, allowing just one hit and two walks, and didn’t give up a run while striking out seven. More importantly, he controlled the game. From the first inning on, the Orioles never really looked comfortable. His fastball was working, he got ahead consistently, and he piled up 16 whiffs, keeping Baltimore’s hitters off balance the entire way. This wasn’t one of those outings where the line looks good after the fact — it looked good the whole way through. And it should have been enough, but it wasn’t. On the other side, Trevor Rogers matched Ryan pitch-for-pitch through seven innings, allowing just three hits and four walks while striking out five. Minnesota’s hitters made some contact, but nothing came of their baserunners until later. RISP-Y BUSINESS The Twins finished the afternoon 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position, and that doesn’t even fully capture how the game felt in real time. There were chances early, including a bases-loaded opportunity in the second inning that went nowhere. Traffic in the middle innings never turned into anything. And then there were the double plays; all three of them. It wasn’t just frustrating, it was historic. The Twins tied a franchise Opening Day record that had stood since 1963. It wasn’t one rally that died, it was multiple. Every time something started to build, it disappeared just as quickly. That’s just baseball sometimes. Once Ryan exited, the Twins turned to the bullpen. Kody Funderburk came in and recorded two outs while allowing one hit, one walk, and the go-ahead run. Justin Topa followed with one inning, giving up two hits and one earned run. Between them, both Orioles runs were scored, putting Baltimore ahead 2‑0 but keeping Minnesota within striking distance. The Twins got one back in the eighth. After a Byron Buxton triple, Luke Keaschall hit a sac fly, cutting the deficit to 2‑1 and giving them a glimmer of life late in the game. There were a few moments that stood out as the game unfolded. Kody Clemens pinch-hit for Austin Martin as soon as a right-handed pitcher entered and stayed in left field. Early in the season, getting players into games matters, but it was still a noticeable move given the other options available. Then in the ninth, Royce Lewis was lifted for Trevor Larnach with two outs, and Larnach ended the game with a strikeout on a slider that caught the plate. That sequence will get talked about, and on Opening Day, every decision feels a little louder. But it’s worth remembering what this actually is: Game 1 of 162. Early in the season, part of the process is getting guys into games, seeing what things look like, and figuring out what might work over time. Not every decision is about maximizing that one moment, even if it feels that way when it doesn’t work. Byron Buxton tripled and scored for the first time in a season opener in his career, providing Minnesota’s only run. Opening Day Eight Twins players enjoyed their first Opening Day in the big leagues. Kody Clemens made his first career Opening Day appearance. He entered the game as a pinch hitter in the eighth and stayed in left field. Kody Funderburk made his first career Opening Day appearance on the mound for the Twins. What’s Next? The Twins and Orioles will enjoy a day off on Friday before returning to the diamond Saturday. Taj Bradley will take the hill for Minnesota, with Kyle Bradish on the mound for Baltimore. First pitch is set for 3:05 PM. Postgame Interviews Twins manager Derek Shelton - "Yeah, Rogers did a good job. I mean, we were 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position, we have to be better than that. When he needed to put the ball on the ground, he did, and then we had two innings where [Coby] Mayo made a really nice play and Gunnar [Henderson] made a really nice play. You know, those two balls and then the fact that, give them credit; they hit two balls where we were not standing and it ended up being the determining factor in the game." Bullpen Availability Chart SUN MON TUE WED THU TOT Topa 0 0 0 0 18 18 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 17 17 Rogers 0 0 0 0 10 10 Orze 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sands 0 0 0 0 0 0 Laweryson 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kent 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banda 0 0 0 0 0 0 View the full article

Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara speaks with the media about his Opening Day routine and what would make Friday's start a success for him. View the full article

Opening Day did not start out well for the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago leadoff batter Chase Meidroth worked a full count on Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski and then slammed a 417-foot homer to the second level in left field to give the White Sox an early 1-0 lead. That was one turning point in the first Opening Day start for The Miz. He promptly struck out the side to shut down the South Sider’s hopes. A Historic Day for The Miz After the home run in the first inning, Miz allowed one hit and three free passes while striking out 11 batters, bettering the previous mark for Brewers Opening Day pitchers by three, set by Freddy Peralta (twice) and Ben Sheets. Misiorowski struck out the side twice and gave up one more hit in his five innings on the mound. The second turning point came when Miz allowed a one-out walk to Meidroth and had a 2-0 count on Colson Montgomery in the third inning with the Brewers leading 4-1. Pitching guru Chris Hook came out and had a little chat with his pitcher. Misiorowski then settled down and struck out Montgomery on three pitches and then set down Miguel Vargas on four pitches. Miz retired the side in order in the fifth inning, and his day was done after 94 pitches and a very solid effort. Game, set, and match. Crooked Numbers, Over & Over Milwaukee scored two or more runs in an inning five times today, effectively demoralizing the White Sox. Joey Ortiz came through with the sacks jammed in the second with a looper past a diving Meidroth to tie the game at one. Then, William Contreras ripped a three-run double two batters later to put the Brewers up 4-1. The White Sox had three base runners in the next two innings but failed to score. The Brewers scored two runs each in the fourth and fifth, and then upped their game by scoring three runs in each of the sixth and seventh innings. Sal Frelick hit a two-run blast in the fifth, and then Jake Bauers continued his spring hot streak by hitting a roof-scraping three-run homer in the seventh that just cleared the fence in right field to account for the final Milwaukee scores. Hamilton Lives Up To Murphy Praise David Hamilton came over in the Caleb Durbin/Andruw Monasterio/Anthony Seigler trade from Boston and immediately won over Brewers fans, as he reached base four times, stole a base, and scored two runs. He also made a play on a slow roller by Luisangel Acuña in the fifth, bare handing the ball and firing to first to retire the speedy brother of Ronald Acuña, Jr. Recently acquired reliever Jake Woodford came into the game in the ninth and gave up the first major league hit to Munetaka Murakami when the former Japanese star blasted a home run to make the score 14-2. Woodford then struck out the side on 13 pitches to end the successful day for Milwaukee. One Down, 161 Games To Go A win over Chicago today is a lot better than last year’s debacle at Yankee Stadium, when the Brewers got swept in three games by a combined score of 36-14. Losing Jackson Chourio to a broken left hand will be a setback for the Brewers, but it will allow manager Pat Murphy to see what Bauers, Brandon Lockridge, Garrett Mitchell, and Blake Perkins can do. All in all, it was a great day for the 43,001 fans at ‘The Ueck’ and the people who watched from the comfort of their couches. Let’s hope the Brew Crew can keep it up. View the full article

On Thursday, the Omaha Storm Chasers shared their 2026 Opening Day roster. Their Opening Day will be on Friday in Louisville against the Bats, the Cincinnati Reds' Triple-A affiliate. The Storm Chasers roster has a mix of veteran talent trying to reach the Majors and prospects looking to make gains in the Minor Leagues before making their MLB debuts. Omaha has ten players on the Royals' 40-man roster, with eight of those being pitchers. Pitching may be the strength of this Omaha team. The rotation is deep with Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, Mason Black, Ben Kudrna, and Mitch Spence all in the mix. Those five pitchers are all on the 40-man roster and have MLB experience, with the exception of Kudrna. They also have some crafty veterans looking to take one last shot in the Major Leagues. Aaron Sanchez was once an "ace-level" arm with the Blue Jays, and he had a decent spring with the Royals. In 10 IP, he posted a 4.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.55 FIP, and 4.7% K-BB%. While he didn't generate a ton of whiffs or chase, he was effective in terms of limiting hard contact this spring. Jose Cuas is also a former Royals reliever who had some fleeting success in Kansas City not too long ago. He will provide bullpen depth in addition to a veteran presence in the clubhouse. In terms of young arms, Steven Cruz is the most accomplished bullpen arm, having posted a 3.74 ERA and 4.11 FIP in 45.2 IP last season. He has a big fastball, and this spring, he had a 17.4% K-BB% and 108 overall TJ Stuff+. Other arms to watch in Omaha include Shane Panzini, Brandon Johnson, Eric Cerantola, Ryan Ramsey, and Beck Way. It would not be surprising to see one of these young pitching prospects emerge as a possible candidate for mid-season call-up, especially if an injury besets a reliever on the Royals' active roster. In terms of bats, many of the expected producers for the Storm Chasers are veterans. Catcher Elias Diaz was a late addition to the Spring Training roster, but he had a solid spring in a limited sample. In 15 plate appearances, the former All-Star Rockies catcher had a .533 average, and he sported excellent Statcast percentiles, especially in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, as illustrated below. The infield is flush with veterans, as Brandon Drury, Josh Rojas, Kevin Newman, and Abraham Toro will all compete for playing time in the Omaha infield. The lone infield prospect is Peyton Wilson, who had a good 2025 in Double-A but struggled in his transition to Triple-A. In terms of the outfield, Gavin Cross is the lone prospect, though he needs to have a better season in 2026 to stay relevant in the Royals system. In 39 plate appearances, Cross hit .270 with a .767 OPS. He showed strong skills this spring, especially in terms of exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. However, the former Virginia Tech product still struck out and whiffed way too much in Arizona. Cross's whiff% ranked in the 12th percentile, and his K% ranked in the second percentile. Thus, it would be nice to see Cross show some progress in those areas in Omaha, especially since the power has seemed to tick back up this spring. Lastly, Kameron Misner and John Rave are outfielders who got cups of coffee with the Rays and Royals last season. Both have some upside, but are likely fourth outfielders at the Major League level. Misner has more upside than Rave, especially with Misner posting a .455 xwOBA and .808 OPS this spring. View the full article

The Kansas City Royals are set to open their 2026 campaign at Truist Park on Friday, after a one-day weather delay. While the Atlanta Braves are perennial powerhouses, the Royals enter this matchup with a unique window of opportunity. Here are the three keys for the Royals to secure an Opening Day victory and start the season 1-0. 1. Capitalize on the "Next Man Up" Rotation The Braves' rotation has been decimated by injuries early this spring. With Spencer Strider (oblique) and Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) both starting the year on the IL, the Royals have managed to avoid two of Atlanta’s most electric arms. While veteran Chris Sale remains a formidable Opening Day opponent, the Royals' lineup, led by Bobby Witt, Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, must stay aggressive early. If the Royals can chase Sale before the fifth inning, they’ll force a Braves bullpen that is still settling into its 2026 roles to carry the load. 2. Let Cole Ragans Set the Tone The Royals have their own ace ready to go. Cole Ragans has evolved into one of the most dominant left-handers in the American League. To beat Atlanta, Ragans needs to utilize his high-velocity fastball to neutralize the power of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson. Atlanta’s lineup is notoriously aggressive. If Ragans can establish his changeup for strikes early, he can keep the Braves' hitters off-balance and prevent the "big inning" that Truist Park is known for. 3. Minimize Damage from the Bottom of the Order The top of the Braves' lineup is a gauntlet, but their depth has been tested by recent injuries and offseason departures. Projections suggest the bottom third of the Atlanta order could be a "wasteland" compared to their usual standards. The Royals' pitching staff must avoid "gift" baserunners to the 7-8-9 hitters. By forcing the bottom of the order to earn their way on, the Royals ensure that when the lineup flips back to Acuña and Riley, there are fewer runners on base for them to drive home. Game Info Matchup: Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves View the full article

You can safely get used to this Cubs core. It's going to be here a while. The team agreed to a six-year extension with (formerly) impending free agent Nico Hoerner Thursday, according to multiple reports. Jesse Rogers of ESPN was first with the news, on Twitter. Hoerner, 28, was due to become a free agent at the end of this season, at the conclusion of the three-year extension to which he and the Cubs agreed almost exactly three years ago. Instead, he'll stick around through at least 2031, locking in a fourth member of the team's positional core for the medium term. Unlike the deal Chicago agreed to with Pete Crow-Armstrong earlier this week, this one is a major surprise, and a game-changer for the team's future. Hoerner was much closer to free agency, and his possible departure made it easy to see how a number of players' futures with the organization might go. Dansby Swanson could have moved to second base as soon as 2027. Jefferson Rojas, the team's burgeoning shortstop prospect, could have taken over at short. Alternatively, Matt Shaw could have taken over for Hoerner next year, since he's been displaced from third base by the arrival of Alex Bregman. Now, none of that is in play. Swanson's contract runs through 2029, as he heads into his mid-30s. Hoerner, Swanson, Bregman and Michael Busch are overwhelmingly likely to make up the team's infield for the next four seasons, which could get the trio of Swanson, Hoerner and Busch close to 1,000 games together before Swanson or Busch hits free agency. Meanwhile, the pathway to playing time for Rojas and Shaw just got murkier, and the likelihood of a similar extension for Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki plunged toward zero. Hoerner is, by every account, a great fit in the clubhouse and an asset in the community. He plays with energy and smarts, and became the best version of himself last year, providing hope that he might be entering his prime as a perennial All-Star-caliber second baseman. This extension introduces some tough questions, since there will be defensive degradation to consider and the team needs ways to develop and install new blood, but it's an exhilarating moment, too. Hoerner, Busch, Swanson, Bregman, and Crow-Armstrong will be the spine of this team for the majority of a decade, by the time they're done playing together. Moisés Ballesteros could end up being a sixth in that collection of talent, and Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Daniel Palencia offer a pitching-side reflection of that abundance. Suddenly, the Cubs' future is much more clear, and even if there are some reasons to be wary of locking them all in, there is also much reason to celebrate. From a fan's perspective, keeping a group with such a history of and dedication to winning together for such a long time augurs well for the organization. View the full article

Chase Meidroth did his level best to assert the seriousness of the 2026 White Sox's improvement. He took Jacob Misiorowski deep to lead off the game Thursday, putting Chicago ahead 1-0, and Shane Smith pitched out of trouble in the bottom of the first to keep the score that way. Even as that was all happening, though, you could feel it coming. Once Meidroth's homer woke him up, Misiorowski went about mowing the visitors down ruthlessly. In the bottom of the second inning, though, the Crew really reminded the baseball world who they are. It started innocuously. Smith struck out Jake Bauers to begin the second, and got ahead of Sal Frelick 0-2. Then, Frelick simply refused to help him get to the end of the at-bat. He took four straight pitches outside the zone and trotted to first base. Smith was ahead of David Hamilton, too, but the new third baseman fouled off two two-strike pitches and then reached via catcher interference. It was typical Brewers scrappiness, and it didn't have to lead anywhere, really, but inevitably, it did. Smith wobbled, walking Garrett Mitchell in a non-competitive at-bat, and suddenly, the home team had the bases loaded and the crowd buzzing. Catcher Edgar Quero did everything he could to thwart the Brewers and their relentlessly patient approach. He challenged a first-pitch call of a ball low and away, and got his second overturn in as many innings. Smith then came up and in on Ortiz, though, and Ortiz—with the same inside-out swing he used to hit many similar balls last year—poked a flare over the slightly drawn-in infield and into shallow right, for a game-tying single. Smith recovered admirably, then, as he and Quero found the edge of the plate to which his command was stronger (the first-base side) and conspired to strike out Brice Turang. Because Turang worked the at-bat well, though, it took another six pitches to get that out. Up came William Contreras, with the bases still loaded and two outs. Smith had a bit of confidence and control back, but he was also tiring out there. Even in the middle of the season, an inning in which a hurler throws 30-plus pitches is rare and troublesome. Smith was already at 30 pitches for the frame when Contreras stepped into the box. On a 1-1 pitch, Quero earned what looked like another huge, pivotal strike, with another astute challenge on a pitch that nipped the outside corner. Contreras stayed in the fight, though, and ended up in a 2-2 count, waiting on Smith's 36th offering of the inning. Smith and Quero had the right idea. They went to a right-on-right changeup, one of the few reliable ways to get Contreras out in such a situation. That pitch has to be well-executed to work, though, and with the workload piling up too fast for a game in late March, Smith made a mistake. Contreras was all over it, lining the left-up change into the left-field corner for a bases-clearing double that virtually settled the game, then and there. Smith's day was over, and the rout was on. Milwaukee went on to win 14-2. This is what the Brewers do. They force mistakes, and then capitalize on them. No team in baseball is more opportunistic, even though (or, perhaps, because) no team in baseball is more patient. Smith threw a pitch it would have been a crime not to smash, but hitters miss their pitch all the time. Contreras didn't. For that matter, Smith didn't throw that pitch simply out of incompetence. The Brewers had worn him down over the course of the inning. They earned their moment, then seized it. In just the fourth half-inning of the season, it was a lovely microcosm of what has made them great for years, now. It also served as a declaration to the rest of the league: there will be no reprieve in 2026. View the full article

The Nationals pulled off a shocking Opening Day blowout against the Chicago Cubs Thursday, winning 10-4. They chased starter Matthew Boyd in the fourth inning, and tacked on runs via late long balls to put away the much better Chicago club. For Boyd, the problem was not an inability to miss bats, but a fatal attraction to the Nationals batters' barrels. Five Washington batted balls against Boyd were 103.8 MPH ore harder, including three crucial hits that contributed to their scoring against him. He was a bit lucky that the line wasn't worse, given how hard the visitors were hitting him when they made contact. Some good defense and a bad baserunning play gave Boyd three of the four outs recorded on balls in play. That wasn't because of a lack of sheer stuff. Boyd's fastball was right in line with last year in terms of velocity, and his changeup, slider and curve all showed similar movement to their norms. In fact, Boyd got whiffs on over half the swings Nationals batters took against him, leading to seven strikeouts. Washington's plan was extremely guess-heavy; they were locking in and sitting on specific pitches in specific counts and situations. When they were wrong, Boyd fooled them badly and racked up whiffs. When they were right, though, they were all over him. Boyd got barreled up on a first-pitch fastball to CJ Abrams and on an 0-1 slider to Daylen Lile. He also got burned trying to sneak a fastball past Brady House on a 2-2 count, and Joey Wiemer took advantage of a good but guessable changeup in a 1-1 count to hit a long home run. Boyd doesn't have unusually intense stuff, but he's hard to read and his pitches have a wide variety of movement. What they don't have is unexpected movement. Thus, if you carefully plan to commit to a given pitch type from him and you get it—especially if it's roughly in the location you expect—he becomes hittable. Of course, if you're wrong, you won't merely slightly mishit the ball, but come up empty altogether. The gameplan worked for the Nationals Thursday. Boyd will have to make some adjustments for his next start, to be less predictable in both sequence and location. This problem isn't entirely new. In the second half of last season, Boyd ran into it somewhat often, and was vulnerable to just this kind of roughing-up. He and Carson Kelly might need to collaborate to develop a different strategy. Last year, opponents had a .620 OPS when either Miguel Amaya or Reese McGuire worked with Boyd, but a .673 mark when the southpaw was paired with Kelly. Opponents hit 16 oif their 22 homers on the year off Boyd in the starts in which he and Kelly worked together. It's just one game, and one loss. For Boyd and the Cubs, though, every game has to be precious this year. The loss Thursday served notice that while much of what he does still works, he'll have to make further adjustments to stop the league from guessing right often enough to hurt him. View the full article