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The World Baseball Classic always throws a wrench into spring training. Chunks of teams leave camp for a couple of weeks to represent their countries, leaving those still in camp an opportunity for more playing time. With few roster battles, the Milwaukee Brewers will be keeping a close eye on who capitalizes on those chances. As a reminder: Don't take anything too seriously in this recap. It is only spring training, where exhibition games often devolve into minor-league scrimmages. The information below is meant as basic news, not necessarily hardcore analysis. The Crew saw its Cactus League record drop to 4-6 after beating the Chicago White Sox 5-2 Friday, then losing to the Cincinnati Reds 9-7 on Saturday and Kansas City Royals 3-1 on Sunday. Who's Hot? ? Joey Ortiz: Every pessimistic fan's whipping boy, the shortstop left camp for the WBC (Mexico) in a good frame of mind hitting-wise. Maybe it's because of the new beard he is sporting. Whatever it is, Ortiz went 3-for-3 with a pair of runs scored against the White Sox, then had another hit in three trips against the Reds. That boosted his spring average to .412 (7-for-17). Considering he had .239 and .230 batting averages the past two years, that shows some promising signs, even if it's just spring training. Luis Rengifo: The probable starting third baseman bounced back from an 0-for-5 start to his spring by going 3-for-6 in two starts this weekend. That began with his first hit, a homer to right leading off the third inning, against White Sox right-hander Sean Burke, the surprise Opening Day starter last year. The switch-hitting Rengifo followed that up with an infield single that deflected off right-hander Tanner McDougal, who made it up to Double-A in 2025. Against the Royals, Rengifo led off the game with a line-drive single to left off left-hander Kris Bubic. Luis Lara: I prefer giving the benefit of the doubt to the young prospects getting a shot in camp, especially guys who might be a couple years away. That's why I didn't want to knock Lara's start to Cactus League play, in which he went 3-for-16. But in playing two of the three games this weekend, the switch-hitting outfielder went 3-for-5, with a first-pitch single against Bubic. Granted, the exit velocity was a whopping 58.8 mph and dribbled to the first baseman, but everything counts, right? That came after he went 2-for-2 against the Reds, with a ground-rule double in the sixth inning and a bunt single in the eighth. It was a confidence-boosting pair of games. Who's Not? ? Jared Koenig: The durable left-handed reliever finally made his spring debut Saturday—and was rocked. Coming in to face the Reds' 2-3-4 hitters, Koenig was tagged for four runs on three hits in one-third of an inning. Matt McLain greeted Koenig with a hard-hit single to left. Elly De La Cruz lined a double to right. After striking out Sal Stewart, Koenig walked Spencer Steer to load the bases. That brought up Blake Dunn, who has 49 games of MLB experience, and he hit a bases-clearing double down the left-field line. That was it for Koenig, who threw 14 of his 22 pitches for strikes. William Contreras: While he notched hits in his last two games before joining Venezuela for the WBC, Contreras is off to a 3-for-14 (.214) start to his spring. It's nothing to be concerned about with the catcher's track record and something that could come around with the juices flowing in the WBC. He told MLB Network that he is healthy after offseason surgery to fix the broken middle finger on his catching hand, which was the primary concern coming into camp. The hits will come. Gary Sánchez: Keeping it with the catchers, Sánchez has yet to get going, either. He went 1-for-6 while getting one start at catcher and another at designated hitter. That dropped his spring showing to 3-for-15 (.200). Sánchez's spot on the roster is secure, as the No. 2 catcher who could get some DH time. He'll probably see more time now, with Contreras out of camp. View the full article

The day Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reported to the Lee Health Sports Complex in beautiful Fort Myers, Florida, freshly anointed head baseball executive Jeremy Zoll made two noteworthy late-offseason bullpen acquisitions, trading for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda from the Los Angeles Dodgers and signing right-handed reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor-league deal. Two days later, the club signed veteran southpaw Andrew Chafin to a minor-league contract, completing a flurry of mid-February signings designed to improve the club’s bullpen. Banda, Hendriks, and Chafin join Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze, Travis Adams, Marco Raya, Zak Kent, John Klein, Dan Altavilla, and others competing to fill the eight-pitcher unit. A talent- and depth-deficient unit entering the offseason, Minnesota’s bullpen has become crowded with a mix of veteran and inexperienced candidates, creating one of the more wide-open camp competitions in recent Twins history. Barring injury, Sands, Rogers, and Banda are the only three relievers guaranteed spots in the club’s Opening Day bullpen. If Hendriks and Chafin resemble what they've been in seasons past, the two veterans on minor-league deals are favorites to earn spots. The final three spots remain up for grabs as the calendar flips to March, with one aforementioned veteran arm potentially becoming a surprise omission from the club’s Opening Day pen. Earning a 3.90 ERA, 3.04 FIP, and a 49-to-18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings pitched, Topa performed well last season. The veteran righty also stepped in as one of the Twins' most reliable late-inning arms after the front office parted ways with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe at the trade deadline, working his way to a 3.31 ERA and notching four saves from Aug. 1 through Sept. 7. Unfortunately, the then-34-year-old missed the rest of his 2025 campaign after suffering a left oblique strain. Despite the unceremonious end to his first full season with Minnesota, Topa appeared to be a shoo-in for a spot entering the offseason. However, the soon-to-be 35-year-old’s early spring struggles could result in an unexpected end to his Twins’ tenure. To preface, I want to recognize that I am about to analyze an exceptionally small performance sample of work. I also understand that it is still early March, and there’s a strong likelihood that Topa is still in the “ramp-up” phase of his spring program. Still, his underlying metrics suggest the wily veteran’s days as an effective major-league reliever may be coming to an end, evidenced by the chart below (courtesy of TJStats): Topa is generating a lot of swings, which is typically a positive sign, especially for relievers. Unfortunately, hitters are making a lot of contact and doing tons of damage upon intercepting the pitch, resulting in a catastrophic zone contact rate and barrel rate. His well-below-average barrel rate is particularly concerning, given that his past success with Seattle and Minnesota was largely the product of missing barrels with his plus sinker and sweeper. If Topa is unable to miss barrels and generate weak contact, he would become an unusable arm, with too many whammies like this one ruining outings of any consequence. Like this: OTdCTEFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlZkVVYxME1VZ01BV3dRQVV3QUhCbEJSQUFOUUJRSUFWRkFNVWd0VUFsRUdWUW9B.mp4 Topa’s early struggles are especially concerning given that there is no real dip in his velocity compared to last season. In his two appearances against Boston this spring, there was essentially no change in his sinker, sweeper, cutter, or changeup velocity, compared to his 2025 averages. That being the case, the primary factors behind his 27.00 ERA and 13.47 FIP over 1 2/3 innings pitched are diminished movement and poor command or execution. Again, I understand that I am talking about less than two innings pitched. Yet, given that fellow bullpen candidates Orze, Funderburk, Altavilla, Klein, and Raya (from a stuff perspective) are off to strong starts this spring, Topa and his $1.23-million contract could end up on the chopping block come the end of March, either being designated for assignment or traded to another organization. View the full article

Merrill Kelly had dreams of living on Coronado and pitching at Petco Park with the San Diego Padres for the next three years. But California's high tax rate ultimately made the difference in the right-handed starter choosing to return to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 37-year-old said Monday on the "Foul Territory" podcast that the Padres initially had the better deal for three years, but the D'backs eventually increased their two-year offer to make it worthy of turning down the Friars to remain in the desert. Kelly wound up getting a two-year, $40 million contract from the D'backs with a vesting option for 2028. "I don't think it's any secret on how much money you get taken out of your pocket when you go to California. There were a lot of factors that went into the three-year deal. It was definitely enticing, it definitely made the decision a lot harder to come back here. But once Arizona, once these guys got to the number they did, it made a lot of sense to come back here." California has a tax rate of 13% on incomes $1 million and above, while Arizona as a flat rate of 2.5%. "I love San Diego," Kelly said. "Like I said, they take too much money out of my pocket. The taxes over there are a different level. We had my numbers guy run the numbers and it just made more sense to come home — which is crazy on a two-year compared to a three-year (contract)." Kelly said he was close to choosing the Padres, but is happy to be able to not leave his family in the Phoenix area. "It worked out best for us because that was honestly our second choice," Kelly said. "It was between here and San Diego going into the offseason." View the full article

Tommy Hutton's dear friend and former television partner, Rich Waltz, calls into Hutton's retirement press conference via FaceTime to send his congratulations.View the full article

When the Cubs traded for Edward Cabrera in January, many assumed the team would continue the work Cabrera began in Miami last year, under former Cubs assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos: ratcheting down the usage of his four-seam fastball. For most of his career, despite being thrown nearly 100 miles per hour, Cabrera's four-seamer has been his worst pitch. Given his arm angle—even the lower angle to which he adjusted last season—he doesn't have any more ride (that apparent rising action, as the backspin of a fastball defies gravity) than a hitter expects to see. It does run more to his arm side than they'd anticipate, which is good for something, but only if the pitch is well-located and well-mixed with his other offerings. When it isn't, the heater can get hammered. Last season, Cabrera favored his sinker over the four-seamer for the first time. It was just part of a broader shift in deployment of his arsenal, which saw him throw his very effective changeup and curveball plenty, but mix in his slider and sinker more, pushing the four-seamer all the way to fifth in his personal pecking order. It was a strategy of avoidance—of minimizing a weakness by making it as small a slice of his game as possible. In his first outing of the Cactus League season, though, the four-seamer was Cabrera's most-used pitch. He leaned on it harder than he has in any season since 2021, his rookie year. If you're married to the idea that the Cubs' optimization plan for Cabrera involves continuing to push him away from the four-seamer, it's easy to explain that away. Guys work on things during spring. They don't always behave the way they will when the games count. Admittedly, it would be surprising if Cabrera does lean anywhere near this heavily on the four-seamer come the regular season. However, you should still take his pitch usage Friday seriously. It wasn't a fluke, because it's very much the way the Cubs do things. The last two established, American starters the Cubs brought in (the ones to whom we can easily make a direct comparison) were Matthew Boyd and Colin Rea. Here's what happened to Boyd's pitch usage last year. And here's the same chart for Rea. Widening the lens only makes the emphasis clearer. Last season, the Cubs' four-seamer usage was 40.4%. That was the highest rate of any team in the league, by a significant margin. Last year, Rea said that the first thing the Cubs told him was how his arsenal could work better by working differently, playing off his four-seamer. No team in the majors likes four-seamers like this one does. Every pitcher is different. Chicago won't push the four-seamer as hard with Cabrera as they did with Rea; it wouldn't make sense. Don't assume, though, that the team will entirely alter its philosophy to suit one new arm. On the contrary, they're likely to assimilate that arm into their pitching philosophy. Cabrera is about to learn how to use his four-seamer better. If the Cubs didn't believe fervently that that's possible, they almost certainly wouldn't have dealt for him. One could argue that that approach is overconfident. The Cubs have had plenty of developmental wins lately, but when people in the know list the savviest organizations in the game in matters of pitching, the Cubs are never the first name out of their mouth. Asking a player who just figured out something important and turned a corner in their career to pivot dramatically toward a different plan—one that goes against his documented strengths, no less—is awfully bold. However, this is how the Cubs have had success over the last several years. They identify guys they believe can benefit from a change in pitch mix, and then they help them achieve that benefit—and the four-seamer is almost always at the center of the action. Besides, there's always utility in a pitch that sits 97 and often touches higher. Cabrera's stuff is electricity itself, and the four-seamer carries as much current as anything he throws. The Cubs are unlikely to let the value of that intense an offering go unrealized, even if other pitches net Cabrera more whiffs. He might not stick to it all year, but he's going throw the four-seamer more often early on, not less so. Get comfortable with discomfort, because if you'd hoped the flamethrower would lean even more into his curveball and changeup, you're destined for disappointment. The heater powers the Cubs' attack, and while Cabrera is unusual, he's not so unique as to be an outright exception to that rule. View the full article

Prior to Monday's Miami Marlins spring training game in Jupiter, Tommy Hutton announced that 2026 will be his final season as a broadcaster. Turning 80 this April, Hutton's swan song will be his 28th season contributing to Marlins broadcasts and his 24th calling their games on TV. Apart from the Fish, he had previous stints with the Montreal Expos, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays and appeared on national telecasts for ESPN, ABC and NBC. The former first baseman/outfielder played 12 major league seasons from 1966-1981. Overall, he has spent more than six decades in professional baseball. “Calling Marlins games and being part of this community has been one of the greatest honors of my life,” Hutton said in a club press release. “I’m deeply grateful to the fans, players, coaches and everyone who has supported me all these years. While it’s bittersweet to know 2026 will be my final season, I’m looking forward to treasuring every moment in the booth with this great organization.” Hutton distinguished himself from other Marlins color commentators with his willingness to rant about blatant misplays and unfair calls. By and large, fans appreciated that "authenticity," as Marlins chairman & principal owner Bruce Sherman acknowledged in the same press release. "His impact on this franchise and this community is lasting. We are proud to celebrate his extraordinary career alongside our fans.” Hutton has been partnered with a handful of Marlins play-by-play announcers, beginning with Joe Angel and most recently, Kyle Sielaff. He developed particularly good chemistry with Rich Waltz when they were partnered together from 2005-2015. Unfortunately, they didn't cover any postseason-caliber teams during that period. Hutton was fired by the Marlins after the 2015 season, but brought back in June 2018 and has worked in a part-time capacity ever since. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported last month that Hutton is scheduled to work 60 game broadcasts this season. He's part of a three-person rotation of analysts that includes Jeff Nelson (69 games) and Gaby Sanchez (28 games). View the full article

There is another addition to the San Diego Padres' outfield competition. Alex Verdugo, a left-handed hitter released by Atlanta last season, agreed to a minor-league contract with the Padres, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Sunday. The deal will become official once the 29-year-old passes a physical. A left-handed hitter, Verdugo was designated for assignment and released by Atlanta in July following the return of former Friars outfielder Jurickson Profar after serving an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Verdugo, who had signed a $1.5 million contract with Atlanta, had put up a meager .239/.296/.289 slash line with no homers and 12 RBIs in 213 plate appearances over 56 games. That was a second consecutive poor offensive year for Verdugo, who posted a .233/.291/.356 slash line in 2024 with the New York Yankees, with 13 homers and 61 RBIs in 149 games. Verdugo's career numbers show there could still be some production left. His career slash line is .270/.326/.406, mostly done between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox over his first seven MLB seasons. His 13 homers in 2024 matched his career high, accomplished twice. Verdugo now jumps into the mix with Bryce Johnson for a backup outfield role. Johnson does not have any minor-league options remaining. Verdugo is mainly a corner outfielder, but does also play center. View the full article

Opening Day against the White Sox is fast approaching. After a surprising trade and some late offseason shopping, this roster projection has the most changes of any we've published this winter. Caleb Durbin looked poised to be the everyday choice at third, but he plays in Boston now, so the Brewers found a new option. After trading away Freddy Peralta earlier in the offseason, the Brewers continue to get younger and deeper, with perhaps the best farm system in baseball. Virtually the entire pitching staff is young and talented, providing a litany of options for the team to choose from. The position-player group has both youth and experience, and a cluster of infield options on the cusp of the major leagues. The 2026 Opening Day Roster will be strong, and the future is very bright. Catchers (2) William Contreras Gary Sánchez Gary Sánchez returns to Milwaukee, solidifying the backup catcher position and giving the manager Pat Murphy a right-handed power bat on the bench. The 2025 team didn’t often have an option like Sánchez on the bench, and the former top prospect will provide both stability and punch. William Contreras looks primed for another All-Star season in 2026, Jeferson Quero will get more time to keep working back toward his pre-injury form, while Marco Dinges marches toward top-100 prospect status. V 4.0 changes: Sanchez in, Quero out. Infielders (6) Andrew Vaughn (1B) Brice Turang (2B) Luis Rengifo (3B) Joey Ortiz (SS) David Hamilton (INF) Jake Bauers (INF-OF) Team USA’s Brice Turang is in fine form already, primed to build on last season’s breakout. The Brewers signed Luis Rengifo to be the new starting third baseman, but the switch-hitter has had much better success in his career against left-handed pitching, opening the door for shared time at third. That's where things get interesting. With Andruw Monasterio accompanying Durbin to the Red Sox, the backup infielder role is open. David Hamilton was re-acquired from Boston, after originally being drafted by the Brewers, and is already a favorite of Pat Murphy. Hamilton would fit as a left-handed batter, but he's coming off a calamitous offensive season. Jett Williams and Cooper Pratt could contribute in similar roles to Hamilton's, as the season unfolds. Following a September and playoff breakout, Jake Bauers came to an agreement on a pay raise early in the offseason and looks locked into a bench role, with some chance to be more like the starting first baseman if things break right. Bauers’s defense at first is far superior to Tyler Black’s, so despite the electric start to spring training that Black has had, there isn’t room on the Opening Day roster for him; the main consequence of his stronger showing might be a boost to his trade value. V 4.0 changes: Rengifo and Hamilton in, Durbin and Monasterio out. Outfield (5) Jackson Chourio (LF) Garrett Mitchell (CF) Sal Frelick (RF) Christian Yelich (DH) Brandon Lockridge (OF) Brandon Lockridge’s fast start to camp (combined with Pat Murphy’s unabashed love for the speedster) nudges him just ahead of Blake Perkins. Perkins has minor-league options available to be exercised, and given Mitchell’s injury history, Perkins will almost certainly be a valuable depth piece again this season. As on the infield, Williams and Black are considerations on the grass, but not for Day 1. Akil Baddoo and Steward Berroa also lurk on the 40-man roster. V 4.0 changes: Lockridge in, Perkins out. Starting Pitchers (5) Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Chad Patrick Logan Henderson The battle for the final two spots in the rotation could be epic, with Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan—the major returns in the Durbin trade—joining Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser and Brandon Sproat in the competition. Sproat flashed elite stuff in his first spring outing, and has the baseline workload to be a big-league starting pitcher right now. If Brandon Woodruff isn’t ready or the Brewers decide Patrick is more valuable in the bullpen, Sproat could be the frontrunner for the final spot. V 4.0 changes: None. Bullpen (8) Abner Uribe Trevor Megill Aaron Ashby Jared Koenig Grant Anderson Rob Zastryzny Ángel Zerpa DL Hall The depth of rotation options on the 40-man roster also deepens the bullpen, and despite no changes in this projection, there are many strong arms available to the Brewers. Zastryzny is the only player listed without a minor-league option available, but he might also be the most likely to be replaced if a change is made. Five lefties is probably too many, and the Brewers have let Zastryzny go in the past. Replacing him with Patrick, Craig Yoho or Coleman Crow could be the answer. V 4.0 changes: None. With the majority of spring training still to be played and a few decisions for the Brewers still to make, they sit in an enviable position. They have a strong core, youth, and depth throughout the roster. Which stud prospects will claim rotation spots? How will the infield time shares work out? Will Mitchell stay healthy? Will Black prove this is more than a lovely desert mirage? We will find out in a few weeks, but no matter who makes it to Opening Day, the 2026 Brewers are loaded with talent. View the full article

Spring training is now in full swing, and almost every player has had an opportunity to get at-bats or innings pitched. Which players have stood out with good or bad performances over the past few games? As a reminder, don't read too much into spring training performances. Sample sizes are small, competition levels vary, and players may be working on specific adjustments that don't necessarily translate to traditional stats. This post is only meant to inform and summarize what has happened in the past few games. Who’s Hot? 🔥 First of all, check out a post from yesterday to see which three non-roster invitee hitters are making their case in Royals camp with hot starts this spring. Jac Caglianone Caglianone has started hot this spring with a .400 average and a 1.283 OPS. He is starting to show signs of increased plate discipline with three walks in his four plate appearances on Saturday against the Rockies. With below average walk and chase rates last season, already having five walks is a good sign for Caglianone’s plate discipline heading into the 2026 season. He is also seeing the ball well and hitting it hard when he makes contact. Caglianone has five hard-hit balls in his last two games, including a 120.2 mph double on Friday against the Diamondbacks. For perspective, only two balls were hit harder in all of MLB last season. If Caglianone can sustain his excellent batted ball skills with an improvement in plate discipline, then he is showing the traits of a true middle-of-the-order bat. Michael Massey Massey is also off to a hot start with a Spring batting average so far of .538 and an OPS of 1.446. He has successfully reached base five times in his last two appearances while only striking out once. His average exit velocity in those two games was 92.26 mph, which is up from his average exit velocity of 87.5 mph last season. Massey is positioning himself for a larger share of playing time at second base over Jonathan India, who is so far not off to a great start this spring. If he can return to his 2024 form, which was cut short by injury, he will make manager Matt Quatraro face a tough decision about who to give the majority of the innings at second base. Cole Ragans Ragans made his first appearance of spring on Saturday against the Rockies, pitching two innings with three strikeouts while only allowing one hit and one hit batter. The Rockies hitters also struggled to make contact with Ragans, inducing 11 whiffs in his two innings. He allowed some hard hits when the batters were able to make contact with three hard hits in his four batted balls. His fastball averaged 97.0 mph and topped off at 98 mph, which is definitely a positive sign following his injuries last season. His pitch mix appeared balanced, with both his slider and changeup also grading well with Stuff+ over 100. His only pitch that did not grade well was his knuckle curve, which he only threw twice and allowed his lone single on. With this level of performance, Ragans showed that he should be the ace of this rotation if he can stay healthy. Who’s Not? 🧊 Carlos Estevez Estevez showed worrying signs in his second appearance this spring. He allowed two hits, one of which was a home run, and two earned runs in one inning against the Athletics on Friday. Including his first appearance on Tuesday, he has allowed four earned runs on four hits (three home runs) and eight hard-hit balls. Opposing batters are squaring up the ball at an alarming rate against Estevez. Estevez has also yet to throw a pitch faster than 89 mph, which is a very worrying sign from the player whom everyone had locked in as the closer at the end of the Royals’ bullpen. Statcast data shows that Estevez has not yet thrown a fastball this spring, but reports indicate that his fastball is registering as a changeup due to its lower velocity so far. In previous seasons, his fastball has needed time to ramp up, but these are still worrying measurements. The Royals will certainly hope that this is a case of ramping up rather than regression. If his fastball velocity does not increase, then the Royals will have reason to worry. Isaac Collins Collins got his first hit, a double, on Sunday against the Brewers, ending an 0-8 spell with four strikeouts. His batted balls have also not been particularly hard-hit, with an average exit velocity of 87.26 mph, a slight drop-off from his 88.8 mph average in 2025. There is still plenty of time for Collins to hit his stride this spring. Being slated to be the starting left fielder after being traded this offseason, there will be pressure to produce, since the position was a major weakness for the Royals last season. Collins’ start this spring was delayed since he received injections in both knees this offseason to address patella tendinitis that he was dealing with at the end of last year. While there is plenty of time this spring for Collins to hit his stride, his fitness will be something to keep an eye on moving forward. Salvador Perez Perez was featured a week ago as a player who had a strong start to spring, but he has since gone quiet this spring. Perez appeared on both Friday and Saturday and hit a combined 0-4 with a walk. He also failed to register a batted ball of at least 95 mph in his four at-bats. Perez will soon head off to the World Baseball Classic to captain Team Venezuela. The Royals will hope that his meaningful at-bats at the WBC will help him regain his form and return to the Royals at full form. View the full article

Despite all that's happened over the last 19 months, the Twins intend to compete for playoff spots—not just in the future, but this season. Owner Tom Pohlad was so clear on that imperative that he was willing to lose president of baseball operations Derek Falvey over it. That makes the situation surrounding Pablo López one of the more fascinating long-term decisions the front office will face in the coming months. López will miss the entire 2026 season following Tommy John surgery. It will be the second such procedure of his career; the first came more than a decade ago. When he returns, the calendar will read 2027, which also happens to be the final season of the four-year extension he signed after Minnesota acquired him. The Twins got López from the Miami Marlins in the Jan. 2023 trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. Since that deal, he has been everything Minnesota hoped for at the top of its rotation. Across three seasons, he posted a 3.68 ERA with elite underlying numbers, including a 26.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, and a ground ball rate north of 43%. ERA estimators SIERA and FIP suggest he was even better than the surface-level production indicates. His 2025 campaign looked like another step forward before injuries began to pile up. López opened the year with a 2.82 ERA through 11 starts, before a Grade 2 teres major strain in early June cost him roughly three months. He returned in September for three sharp outings before finishing the season on the injured list with a minor forearm strain. Minnesota acknowledged at the time that López could have pitched through the issue, had the club been in a playoff race. With the season already lost, however, they chose to play things safe. Unluckily, it didn't matter. Now, the Twins must decide whether to wait for proof of health in 2027 or take a more proactive approach. A recent blueprint exists. The Cleveland Guardians worked out a short-term deal with Shane Bieber that guaranteed him $10 million for 2025, with a $16 million player option for 2026 and a $4 million buyout. The structure allowed Cleveland to maintain upside if Bieber returned to form, while also giving the pitcher financial security as he rehabbed. Bieber was traded to the Blue Jays last summer and exercised his player option in the fall. Minnesota could pursue something similar for López that covers the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Pros of Extending López Financial security for the player matters. A new deal would protect López against the uncertainty that comes with returning from a second Tommy John, while also rewarding someone widely viewed as one of the team’s most respected leaders. From the club’s perspective, there's an opportunity to buy low. Extending him now rather than after a successful return could result in surplus value if he regains his pre-injury form. There's also an element of organizational culture to consider. Extending a player who has embraced the organization both on and off the field would reinforce the message that performance and leadership are valued internally. For an ownership group that has talked about competing annually, backing López would be a tangible sign of that commitment. Cons of Extending López There's an obvious medical risk tied to any pitcher returning from a second elbow reconstruction. Minnesota would be committing future payroll to a player who will be 22 months removed from their last prolonged period of health and availability when next season begins. Waiting until he proves healthy in 2027 may provide more clarity, even if it comes at a higher price. In the meantime, the Twins will need to allocate resources elsewhere across a roster that already has several key contributors approaching arbitration raises or free agency. Still, this is the type of decision that reveals how an organization views its competitive timeline. If the Twins believe their window to contend remains open beyond the next two seasons, then extending López now could stabilize the top of the rotation for years to come—while supporting a player who has become one of the franchise’s most trusted voices. Should the Twins approach López with an extension? Does the Bieber extension fit a potential López deal? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

On Sunday, the Dominican Republic held its first team practice at loanDepot park ahead of the World Baseball Classic, set to begin on Wednesday, March 4, when Chinese Taipei and Australia face off in the Tokyo Dome. The biggest story for this team, led by manager Albert Pujols, is San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado, who was named captain for the Dominican Republic. This will mark Machado’s third WBC, participating with the DR in 2017 and 2023, two years in which they were not able to win it all. He is coming off a season with the Padres in which he slashed .275/.335/.460/.795 with 27 home runs, 95 RBI, and a 123 wRC+. In the last World Baseball Classic, Machado played in four games, going 4-17 with two home runs and four RBI. The Dominican Republic could not make it past the pool play round, going down as one of the biggest upsets in the tournament. “I don’t even think about that,” Machado told reporters. “That’s all in the past. We are thinking about the team that we have right now and just play our game.” Machado mentioned multiple times how much of an honor it will be to represent the Dominican Republic for a third time in the tournament, but noted that “the most important thing is to win.” “That is what we in the clubhouse want,” Machado said. “At the end of the day, that is the most important thing.” The Dominican Republic will play two exhibition games in Santo Domingo, with Luis Severino starting game one and Brayan Bello starting the second game. Both games will be against the Detroit Tigers. “That’s going to be something special,” Machado said. “I don’t even have words to explain what that moment will be like. I think a lot of people are going to be happy about it. To play in front of fans who always support us, who may not have the chance to watch us here in the United States and play in front of them, it’s something special.” Pool D play will begin on Friday, March 6, with the Dominican Republic playing in the night game at 7:00 pm against Nicaragua. For the DR, it’ll be Christopher Sanchez taking the mound, and for Nicaragua, Erasmo Ramirez will start. View the full article

Identifying the top prospects in a thin farm system such as the San Diego Padres' is as difficult as choosing from the prospects in a deep system. In each case, lots of hair-splitting happens as players are assigned spots. San Diego team president and general manager A.J. Preller cleared out the pipeline last summer in his deadline trades for Mason Miller, Ramon Laureano, Ryan O'Hearn and Freddy Fermin. Top prospect Leo De Vries led the group of players who were shipped out. It's time to list the best of what's left. Here's a look at the first set of prospects in Padres Mission's 2026 preseason Top 20 ranking -- the players ranked 16th through 20th. These rankings were voted on by the writers. 20. Francis Pena, RHP (El Paso Chihuahuas) Pena, 25, was ranked 17th on this list at the end of 2025, but his Triple-A numbers pushed him to the bottom of this list. ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS SV BS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 4.99 5.23 5.50 52.1 43 0 0 4 19.8 14.3 5.5 0.69 10.3 28.1 1.61 .307 65.9 20.5 55.6 23.8 38.9 11.1 The Dominican-born reliever appeared to be on a fast track after his 2024 season that saw him speed through three levels. But he stalled at El Paso and spent the entire 2025 season there. The regression showed up in his walk rate (26th percentile of Triple-A pitchers) and strikeout rate (33rd percentile). But there was some deep red, too, namely in exit velocity allowed (83rd percentile) and hard-hit rate (76th percentile). He kept the ball in the yard, allowing just four home runs. That helped the FIP, but it was still ugly at 5.23. Pena relies on a hard sinker and slider that are delivered from a 44.5-degree arm angle. The sinker averaged 95.4 mph, 11 inches of arm-side run, and five inches of vertical break last year. The slider clocked in at 87.3 mph and had little depth. Those two pitches made up 86.6 percent of his arsenal. He mixed in a four-seamer (94.7 mph) and cutter (89.3 mph) the rest of the time. (Stats per Prospect Savant.) He showed enough to earn a non-roster invite to spring training for a second consecutive year, but a return to El Paso in 2026 seemed inevitable because of the Padres' bullpen depth. 19. Eric Yost, RHP (Fort Wayne TinCaps, San Antonio Missions) Yost, 23, cracks the top 20 three years after being drafted by the Padres in the 17th round out of Northeastern University. He earned the spot with a breakout at High-A that earned him a late-season promotion to Double-A. ERA FIP xFIP IP G GS SV BS K% BB% K-BB% HR/9 SwStr% Whiff% WHIP BABIP LOB% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB 3.75 3.92 4.09 124.2 25 25 0 0 20.8 11.0 9.8 0.43 8.5 -- 1.40 .305 68.3 23.7 50.0 26.3 24.7 6.5 He made eight starts for San Antonio, and his stats there showed that the move challenged him. Contact and pull rates were higher than what he allowed in the Midwest League, and the swing rate decreased. He struggled badly with command as he faced better hitters, posting 26 strikeouts to 27 walks in 37 1/3 innings. That underwater ratio contributed to a 5.00 FIP (5.79 xFIP). Inconsistency was another problem; his first two Double-A starts were excellent, but five of his last six were poor. Overall, two splits stood out: Left-handed batters' OPS against him was 95 points higher than what right-handed batters produced, and opponents' OPS with runners on base was 110 points higher than their OPS with the bases empty (all splits via Baseball Reference). One thing in his favor: left-handed hitters' OPS was inflated by a .353 BABIP, a sign bad luck was involved. Yost's fastball sits in the low-to-mid-90s, but his combination of curve and slider/sweeper are graded highly by Prospect Savant. If he can't get his velocity higher, his pitchability will need to be elite. 18. Deivid Coronil, 3B/SS (Padres Gold) Coronil, 18, is one of eight players in our top 20 who made their professional debuts in 2025. The Venezuela native was a highly sought-after January international free agent. San Diego landed him with a $900,000 signing bonus. MLB.com ranked him 35th in its international prospects top 50. A few months after signing, he saw regular action with Padres Gold in the Dominican Summer League. PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% SB CS SB% 174 26 2 1 0 .542 56 .306 27.0 12.1 20.5 -- 57.6 27.2 15.2 18.4 43.7 37.9 8 0 100.0 A big part of his appeal is his reputation as an elite fielder. MLB.com has already assigned him a 65 field grade on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. His four errors in 14 games at shortstop and eight errors in 27 games at third base last year look like the work of a young player at the start of his pro career. His arm, run and hit grades are listed at 50 each, and his power grade is 35. The slug could emerge once he grows into his body; he's listed as 6-3 and 162 pounds. And his running grade might be a bit low after his 8-for-8 on steal attempts. The Padres are famous for rushing young prospects through their system, but they might need to be patient with Coronil after a middling debut. 17. Truitt Madonna, C (Lake Elsinore Storm) Madonna is another of the 2025 debutants in the top 20. He was chosen by the Padres in the 11th round of the July draft out of Ballard High School in Seattle. The club gave him a $654,000 signing bonus, more than four times above slot, to break his commitment to UCLA. A strong showing in the spring-summer MLB Draft League boosted his stock. PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% SB CS SB% 60 10 3 1 0 .544 55 .270 38.3 10.0 18.6 -- 23.3 23.3 53.3 16.1 61.3 22.6 0 0 0.0 Madonna made his pro debut two weeks before the end of the California League season with Lake Elsinore. He started seven games at catcher and two games at first base. Contact was a big issue, noted by his 38.3 strikeout rate and a 61.3 percent ground-ball rate in 60 plate appearances. There were hiccups on defense, as well. Madonna went 1-for-14 in throwing out base stealers, a seven-percent success rate. He was also charged with two passed balls. Power is Madonna's signature tool. Prospect Savant pegs it at 50 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. The hit tool is 40, as is the run tool. His arm tool is 50 and his field tool is 40. Madonna already has size -- he's listed at 6-3 and 215 pounds -- and he'll turn 19 on March 12. There's a lot of room for growth in both his body and his game. 16. Kavares Tears, OF/1B (Lake Elsinore Storm) Tears was 11th in our post-deadline Top 20 last summer, but a rocky debut season at Low-A dinged him this year. More was expected from a toolsy player who came from a collegiate powerhouse in the University of Tennessee. PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% SB CS SB% 475 93 22 2 13 .705 96 .339 29.1% 12.2% 16.6% -- 41.7% 23.7% 34.5% 24.6% 46.0% 29.4% 6 5 54.5% San Diego took him in the fourth round of the 2024 MLB Draft as the compensation for Josh Hader, but the organization waited until 2025 to start his career. His debut was pushed back further, to April 15, because of a hamstring injury. He then was limited to DH duty until late July. For the year, he started 29 games in the outfield and three games at first base. Four of his five scouting grades from Prospect Savant speak to his athleticism -- 60 throw, 55 run, 55 field, and 55 power. The fifth grade is a 40 hit tool. The left-handed hitting Tears slashed .227/.320/.385 (.159 ISO, 96 wRC+) in the hitter-friendly California League. He hit .188 in 72 games from June 1 through the end of the season. At least his 12.2 percent walk rate was encouraging, On top of that, he posted extreme home-road splits -- .782 OPS, 22 extra-base hits home; .625 OPS, 15 extra-base hits road -- and large reverse splits: .805 OPS vs. left-handers against a .676 OPS vs. right-handers. There's a lot to monitor as Tears enters Year 2 of his development. What stands out from Nos. 16-20 on our list? Let us know your thoughts in the comments! View the full article

While the Chicago Cubs' minor-league depth has taken a hit with recent graduations and trades, there are still a handful of interesting prospects to be found outside the top 10 names on our list. You can find Part 1 (prospects #16-20) right here. #15: Will Sanders (Triple-A) Will Sanders may not be the most exciting prospect in the Cubs' system, but sometimes players like him can fly under the radar because the things they do well don't immediately stand out. Our 15th-ranked prospect is not a stuff monster, nor does he induce a ton of swing-and-miss. What he does offer is steady pitchability and a kitchen-sink approach. Baseball America's scouting report has Sanders sitting 92-94 mph (touching 97) on his fastball, but with below-average shape. Sanders also throws a splitter, a slider, and a curveball. The Cubs pitcher of whom Sanders most reminds me is Colin Rea. That's not a bad thing—quite the opposite, really. Rea doesn't overwhelm hitters with stuff, but confuses them by throwing enough pitches that separate themselves to stay one step ahead of his opposition. That's probably the path forward for Sanders: continuing to refine a deep repertoire of good-enough offerings and moving between long relief and the rotation as needed. Those types of arms can be your saving grace in the dog days of a 162-game season. By the end of last season, Cubs fans were clamoring for more Colin Rea. As the team stumbled down the stretch with pitching fatigue and injuries, Rea was ever available, steady and capable. While Sanders may not excite anyone, if he can continue to grow in a similar fashion, he can carve out a long and valuable career. #14: Kaleb Wing (Scotts Valley High School) Kaleb Wing is a different type of pitcher than we've seen the Cubs draft recently: an over-slot, high-upside prep arm. Lanky and projectable, the right-handed pitcher has both stuff and pedigree. He's already hitting 94-96 mph (though sitting 90-92 on average) on the gun as a teenager, and his father pitched in the White Sox organization. Wing saw his draft stock soar in the lead up to the draft—enough to impress the Cubs' brass, who gave him a $1.5 million signing bonus. According to BA, Wing already throws four pitches. It'll be interesting to see how the Cubs continue to develop that arsenal. Wing has yet to make his professional debut, but should see time with Myrtle Beach in 2026. He's probably a year or two away from reaching the upper tier of Cubs prospect lists, but it's clear that the organization likes the pitcher a lot. #13: Angel Cepeda (Myrtle Beach) Angel Cepeda had an uneven season with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, but ended the campaign the way you'd hope to see a prospect do so: on fire. Cepeda is another former six-figure international free-agent signing and had a strong year overall, posting a 116 wRC+ in his stop at Low-A, but those numbers bury the lede. Over his final 132 plate appearances, Cepeda posted a blistering 157 wRC+, with a .331 batting average, four home runs, six doubles and two triples. Perhaps the best part of that torrid stretch was that the right-handed hitter saw a significant reduction in strikeouts, dropping from a 33.7% strikeout rate before the warm-up to a 26.6% rate after. One of the biggest green-flag indicators a hitter can wave is to make more contact, and Cepeda was able to do that as a 19-year-old in a very tough hitting environment. Obviously, there are still things to work on, but Cepeda offers a bit of a projectable frame and the kind of bat that could survive at third base. While he's played a lot of shortstop, it's likely that the 6-foot-1 teenager will eventually have to move off the position as he adds weight. He uses a pretty simple setup at the plate, so if his pitch recognition skills continue to get better, he shouldn't have many flaws mechanically. It shouldn't surprise anyone if, at the end of the season, Cepeda jumps into a lot of internal top-five rankings. #12: Cole Mathis (Low-A) Cole Mathis was supposed to be one of the fastest movers from the 2024 Cubs draft class, but sadly, that has not been the case. Mathis had some of the best batted-ball data from his class, and had already shown success in the Cape Cod League with wooden bats, so the hope was that as he transitioned from a two-way player at the College of Charleston, he would take off immediately in pro ball. Instead, 2025 was a year where Mathis struggled with injury (as he came off Tommy John surgery) and to be productive in the lineup. While he did post a 121 wRC+ during his time in Myrtle Beach, his .221 batting average left a lot to be desired. Also, when put in the context that Low-A is usually a level college hitters cruise through (Kane Kepley,. the Cubs' 2025 second-round pick whose bat was not considered his calling card, posted a 180 wRC+ there), Mathis just didn't crush the level like you'd have thought he could. This caused Mathis to get some run during the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a more encouraging .280/.439/.400 line—though that was still somewhat lacking in the power department. The hope with Mathis is that the elbow injury and recovery sapped his power, because the approach was clearly there. Mathis walked 13% of the time at Myrtle Beach and had 15 free passes while in the AFL. If he can show the power that his batted ball data in college suggested he may be able to produce, he can be someone who refills his prospect balloon with helium in the 2026 campaign, If he doesn't show that, however, he'll have to hope his glove improves rapidly at the hot corner. #11: Brandon Birdsell (Triple-A) Brandon Birdsell entered the 2025 season with hopes of making his MLB debut, but those were quickly dashed. Despite being a non-roster invitee to camp, he was placed on the 60-day IL before he ever really got going. He was eventually able to get back on the mound in June, pitching a few times in the Complex league and then moving his way up to Iowa, making his season debut at Triple-A in mid-July. Things seemed back on track for the righty, but was again shutdown after a start on August 7. By the end of the month, the team announced the devastating news: Tommy John surgery was on tap for the Cubs' pitching prospect. Injury is nothing new to the right handed pitcher, as in 2021, a rotator cuff injury dropped his draft status and Birdsell opted to return to Texas Tech for another year. Prior to this, the righty had Tommy John once prior, requiring the surgery as a sophomore in high school. A long injury history is never a great thing and all of these were reasons the talented pitcher was even available to be selected by the Cubs to begin with. For 2026, it's pretty unlikely we'll see him take a mound. While it's unknown whether or not he required a full UCL reconstruction or a a brace (similar to Justin Steele), it's probable that 2026 will be a full-on rehab season for the 25-year-old, with the prevailing hope that he can rebound in 2027. Coming back from a second TJS puts his future in doubt; he was never an overpowering guy, but always got results that were better than you'd expect due to a funky delivery. He was a fun, under-the-radar type, but his future now is pretty murky. If he can bounce back with authority, he won't be so old that it'd be impossible for the organization to find a pathway to the majors for him. But he'll have a lot to prove once healthy. What do you think of this batch of prospects? Which on is your favorite? Do you think someone missed the cut? Let us know in the comment section below! View the full article

A big key for the Royals last year was the improvement in the bullpen from 2024 to 2025. While the bullpen improved after the Trade Deadline acquisition of Lucas Erceg, it was an inconsistent group in 2024, and the metrics proved it. Royals relievers ranked 20th in bullpen ERA (4.13), 28th in K/9 (8.06), 23rd in K/BB ratio (2.36), and 26th in SIERA (4.02). It's honestly amazing that the Royals won 86 games and made the playoffs with a bullpen that mediocre. In 2025, thanks to the acquisition of Carlos Estevez and the improvement of some other relievers, Kansas City's bullpen showed some growth in terms of results. They ranked 7th in bullpen ERA (3.63), 19th in K-BB ratio (2.46), and 21st in SIERA (3.99). However, the only blemish for this bullpen was the lack of strikeouts, as they actually ranked worse in K/9 with a 7.76 mark (which ranked 29th). Thus, Royals GM JJ Picollo made it a priority to acquire relievers who could get strikeouts and whiffs. Trades for Philadelphia's Matt Strahm and Milwaukee's Nick Mears confirmed that priority. That said, one intriguing Minor League signing this spring has been Helcris Olivarez, who pitched in the San Francisco Giants organization a season ago. In four outings and four IP, Olivarez has a 2.25 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 3.87 FIP, and 3.00 K/BB ratio. The strikeouts haven't been great, as he has a 16.7% K% so far in Cactus League play. That said, he's limited the walks (5.6% BB%), something that has plagued him in the past in the Minor Leagues. For context, in 37 appearances in Double-A and Triple-A combined last year, he had a 24.6% BB% and 1.7% K-BB%. Safe to say, those kinds of numbers aren't going to cut it in the Majors. However, what has been different with Olivarez so far this spring? What kind of role could Olivarez have in the Royals' bullpen in 2026? What are some recent Royals bullpen success stories that are similar to Olivarez? Let's break down those questions using Fangraphs and TJ Stats data and applications. Olivarez's Four-Seamer and Curve Have Been Key This Spring The 25-year-old Dominican lefty hasn't generated a ton of strikeouts this spring, with only three strikeouts so far. That said, he's producing a decent chase and whiff, while minimizing hard contact, as illustrated by his reasonable xwOBACON. Those metrics can be seen via his TJ Stats summary of his performance this spring below. When it comes to TJ Stuff+, there's a lot to be encouraged about with Olivarez's profile. While his overall TJ Stuff+ is 100 and he has only one pitch with a TJ Stuff+ over 100 (his curve, which has a 106 mark), all four of his offerings have pitching grades over 50. That shows that he has a balanced profile, and he does have one elite pitch in his curveball, which has a pitching grade of 64 and a whiff rate of 66.7%. Olivarez hasn't generated an outstanding chase rate (28.6%), and his whiff rate has been below average (21.4%). That said, his four-seamer chase has been solid (31.6%), and he's been limiting hard contact on his fastball, with his four-seamer posting a .362 xwOBACON and his sinker posting a .107 xwOBACON. I believe a reason for the lower chase and whiff rates is due to his erratic control, as he has a 44.4% zone rate so far this spring. Below is Olivarez's pitch chart from yesterday's Cactus League game. Notice that it was feast or famine for him when it came to locating his pitches against the Rockies on Saturday. Once Olivarez is able to find the strike zone more this spring, the more effective his chase and whiff rates will be. His most thrown pitch this spring has been his four-seamer, and it's typically been a good pitch for him in terms of TJ Stuff+ and whiff profiles. Here's a look at his TJ Stats summary from last year in Triple-A Sacramento, and take a look at the data on the four-seamer from a season ago. The four-seamer not only averaged 97.3 MPH, but it also had a 99 TJ Stuff+, 52 grade, 36.5% whiff rate, and .248 xwOBACON. So, what can we say about that data on the fastball from last season? Yes, it is. Conversely, it had a 39.8% zone rate and 18.4% chase rate. Considering he threw the pitch 47.8% of the time, that erratic control of the four-seamer probably led to his 24.4% BB% in Sacramento. What's interesting about Olivarez's four-seamer is that it doesn't sport the characteristics of a normal four-seam fastball. It only had a 13.1 iVB and an 11.7 HB. Thus, it's more of a horizontal moving pitch with more armside movement than typical for a four-seamer. One can see that in the pitch below from his time in Double-A Portland (when he was in the Red Sox organization), which hovers on the line being a sinker (though I don't have the exact metrics of the pitch). Despite that unique profile, Olivarez located it up, which one would do with the typical four-seamer. Based on the TJ Stats heatmap data, the approach worked for Olivarez in Sacramento last season. He produced a 33.3% CSW, 21.7% whiff rate, and .230 xwOBACON against lefties and a 29.8% CSW, 41.1% whiff rate, and .258 xwOBACON against righties. Thus, his four-seamer was a better strike-generating pitch against lefties but a better swing-and-miss pitch against righties last year in Triple-A. Let's see how that heatmap data looks so far this spring. The location hasn't been quite as sharp for Olivarez, based on his heatmap. His four-seamer has been located more in the middle of the plate than it was a season ago, when it was located up and armside against both lefties and righties. Against lefties, whom he has a 55.6% four-seamer usage against, it's produced similar trends with a 26.7% CSW and 0.0% whiff, but .269 xwOBACON. Against righties, it's been even better when it comes to generating strikes (36.8% CSW) and whiffs (42.9%), but it's been hit a lot harder, as illustrated by a .487 xwOBACON. The four-seamer will be key for Olivarez this spring because it can effectively set up his curve, which may be his best put-away pitch. Here's a look at the TJ Stats heatmap data this spring on his primary breaking offering, especially against lefties. He's only thrown it 22.2% of the time against lefties (and 5.6% against righties). However, against lefties, it's been a stellar offering with a 33.3% CSW, 40% O-Swing (chase), and 66.7% whiff. He hasn't located it all that well either, with the curve being located more up and in than typical. Here's a look at his curveball heatmap data from 2025 with the Triple-A Rivercats. Olivarez located the curve primarily away and glove-side against lefties and righties last year. It was far more effective against righties with a 28% CSW, 57.1% whiff, and .120 xwOBACON. Command of the pitch is probably the reason for that difference, as his curve against righties was located more in the lower zone 7 portion of the strike zone, while against lefties, it was more up in zone 6. The curve breaking hard and in on hitters foot is always going to lead to more whiffs. It would be nice to see Olivarez get to commanding that curveball back in that area of the strikezone this spring in Cactus League play, but he would likely need his four-seam command to improve first so he can get in more ideal counts to utilize his effective curveball. What Kind of Role Can Olivarez Play in the Bullpen? The Royals lack lefty depth on the 40-man roster. The only lefties who could pitch out of the bullpen are Strahm, Daniel Lynch IV, and Bailey Falter. That said, Falter is more of a starter and only moved to the bullpen after struggling initially with the Royals last season. Lynch has looked solid this spring, with his stuff playing more up than it did a season ago, as illustrated by his TJ Stats summary in Cactus League play. Thus, Strahm and Lynch could probably hold things down in the bullpen from a lefty perspective. However, as for Falter? I'm not quite as sure, though the TJ Stuff+, his pitch extension, and xwOBACON have been fine so far in Spring Training, as illustrated below. It would be nice for the Royals to get one more lefty in the bullpen, especially with Angel Zerpa going to Milwaukee this offseason (in the Mears and Isaac Collins trade). Strahm is a workhorse, but he is another year older. Lynch IV has produced good numbers so far, but his 4.76 FIP was much higher than his 3.06 ERA last year. Thus, the former 34th overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft could be due for regression in 2026. Olivarez is far from dependable, considering his track record. That said, he's a lefty with velocity and swing-and-miss stuff who could give the Royals the punch from the left side they desperately need in 2026, as long as he is able to harness the control a bit better. What Are Some Similar Situations to Olivarez? I don't think Olivarez will make the Opening Day roster. However, he still has a Minor League option, and he's still under-the-radar, so I don't think there will be a tremendous market for him to opt out (he likely wouldn't make another club's Opening Day roster either). However, while he will start the year in Triple-A Omaha, he has a chance to be a Royals reliever who started the year in the Minors but later became a key contributor to the Royals bullpen. Two examples of that archetype are Sam Long in 2024 and Taylor Clarke last year. Neither made the Royals' Opening Day roster that season. However, they ended up being key relievers for Kansas City when they got called up. Here's a look at what Long did in 2024. In 42.2 IP, Long posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 15.3% K-BB%. He ended up being the Royals' most dependable left-handed reliever that season, with some key innings in the postseason. Like Olivarez, Long has control issues, as evidenced by his 45.7% zone rate. However, he generated strong chase (30.2%) and whiff rates (27.5%), and his four-seamer was his most effective pitch with a 55 grade. Long fell apart a bit in 2025, but the Royals would take a similar campaign from Olivarez in 2026. Now, let's take a look at Clarke, who returned to the Royals after being traded away after the 2023 season. Clarke didn't have a great four-seamer (97 TJ Stuff+ and 50 grade), but his slider was elite with a 108 TJ Stuff+ and 59 grade. The breaking offering that he threw 39.7% of the time also had a 50.9% zone rate, a 33.1% chase-and-whiff rate, and a .312 xwOBACON. As a result, in 55.1 IP, he posted a 3.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 3.97 FIP, and 17% K-BB%. It may be unfair to compare Olivarez to either Long or Clarke, mainly because Olivarez's control issues are way worse than those of the two former Kansas City relievers. However, both are examples of pitchers who weren't taken seriously by fans in the offseason, had good Spring Training campaigns, started in the Minors, and parlayed that success into strong Major League campaigns. Success may look a little different for Olivarez in 2026. However, if the stuff continues and if he can continue to hone his command and control with each and every outing, both in Spring Training and in the Minor Leagues to begin the year, then it wouldn't be surprising to see Olivarez turn into some kind of dark-horse impact reliever for the Royals by mid-season. Hopefully, if that happens, he can have a longer, more successful tenure in Kansas City than Long or Clarke. View the full article

#8 Andrew Fischer (Wisconsin Timber Rattlers) Andrew Fischer entered pro ball after being selected in the first round of the 2025 draft, with some within the Brewers’ scouting team viewing him as the top collegiate hitter in the class. He got 87 plate appearances in High-A and showed some of what he’s capable of. PA H 2B 3B HR OPS wRC+ wOBA K% BB% SwStr% Whiff% PULL% CENT% OPPO% LD% GB% FB% IFFB% SB CS SB% 87 23 5 1 1 .848 141 .401 25.3% 12.6% 14.0% 28.8% 51.9% 25.9% 22.2% 22.6% 24.5% 52.8% 21.4% 8 2 80% What to Like Fischer’s offensive profile is built around a swing designed to create hard contact in the air, particularly to the pull side. That approach was immediately evident during his brief professional debut with the Timber Rattlers, where he pulled the ball 52% of the time and produced a 52% fly-ball rate on balls in play. The swing path is clearly geared toward driving the ball with authority, and the batted-ball profile supports the potential for strong power production. While the early results did not fully display his potential game power, that performance came while Fischer was dealing with a wrist injury that limited his ability to access his raw strength. Wrist issues often affect a hitter’s ability to combine bat speed with barrel accuracy, which likely contributed to the lower-than-expected power output. With improved health, the power should show up in games more consistently. Fischer’s hit tool also stands out. His swing is relatively direct to the baseball, and he shows the ability to drive pitches to his pull side while maintaining enough bat control to make consistent contact. The profile points toward a hitter capable of producing solid offensive numbers through a combination of hard contact and controlled strike-zone management. While the tool may not project as elite, it has a strong foundation to be average or a bit better. An average-or-better hit tool, with power that could be plus, makes for a valuable big-league hitter. Defensively, Fischer’s early work at third base was encouraging. After playing primarily first base during his time at Tennessee, he transitioned to third in his first month of professional baseball. He showed more comfort at the position than initially expected. His movement to his glove side looked natural, and he grew more comfortable handling backhand plays as he gained experience. His arm strength and overall athleticism suggest that he can handle it. What to Work On While Fischer’s offensive approach is designed to generate impact, the swing path introduces some risk that will require monitoring as he advances. His uppercut swing is built to produce lift and pull-side contact, but it may leave him vulnerable in certain areas of the zone. During his time at Tennessee, he showed some holes against those elevated fastballs, particularly when they reached the mid-to-upper-90s. Showing he can handle himself up there will be important against big-league pitching. There is also some risk that the swing path could struggle against offspeed pitches located on the outer half of the plate. Strike zone coverage and adjusting to higher-level sequencing will be key factors in determining how consistently he can produce at the highest levels. Defensively, Fischer remains a work in progress at third base. While the early results were encouraging, his experience at the position is still limited, and that lack of experience does show from time to time. Charging slow rollers and handling plays moving forward remain difficult for him. His footwork and reads in those situations will require continued work. The arm strength, range, and athleticism are already present, but consistency and defensive instincts at the position are still developing. If Fischer doesn't remain at third base, a move to first base would place greater pressure on his offensive production. First base-only profiles typically require significant offensive output to provide value. What’s Next Likely to begin back in High-A, Fischer’s 2026 season will focus on getting to his power in games more often and continuing his defensive development at third base. Assuming full health following his wrist injury, improved exit velocities and increased power production are reasonable expectations. If the game power emerges as projected, his offensive profile could quickly stand out within the system. If both the offensive production and defensive development trend positively, Fischer has the potential to move quickly through the system. With continued progress, a major-league debut as early as 2027 remains a realistic outcome. What are your thoughts on Fischer? What are you hoping to see from him in 2026? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

There's a lot of risk involved using high draft picks on prep pitchers, which is why it's not something the Minnesota Twins often do. They made an exception in 2023 with Charlee Soto, selecting him as a 17-year-old out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida with the 34th overall pick and signing him to a $2.48 million bonus. We've seen some of that risk play out since. In his first season (2024), Soto struggled to a 5.23 ERA in 21 appearances for Low-A Ft. Myers while having his workload heavily managed, and in his second season (2025) he was limited to just 13 innings by arm issues. A triceps strain sidelined Soto after just three starts in Cedar Rapids, and in August he had a procedure to remove a partially detached bone spur in his elbow. The good news is that there was no structural damage, and this spring Soto is healthy and back in action. His extraordinary potential earns him a spot on the back end of Twins Daily's top 10 despite the unignorable question marks. Charlee Soto Age: 20 (DOB: 8/31/05) 2025 Stats (A+): 13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.00 WHIP ETA: 2028 2025 Ranking: 4 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR | ESPN: 94 What's To Like While the Twins realized the risks of investing in young pitching talent, they've already also witnessed some of the upside. Soto, well built at 6-foot-3, is a stellar athlete with a premium arm. He was reaching the upper-90s by the end of his first full season in 2024, and was touching triple-digits early last year before going down with the triceps injury. His 1-7 record and 5.23 ERA from 2024 don't cast an accurate portrayal of Soto's first season in the minors. He more than held his own as an 18-year-old at Fort Myers, striking out 87 in 74 innings and allowing just six home runs. Last year Soto appeared well on his way to taking the next step, throwing absolute gas through his first three starts at High-A Cedar Rapids with a 15-to-4 K/BB ratio and just two runs allowed in 13 innings. The velocity on Soto's fastball is eye-catching, and he's got a solid slider as well, but the signature offering is his changeup. Buzzing in at up to 90 MPH with a ton of arm-side drop, it's viewed as one of the best changeups in all of the minors, and should help him suppress left-handed hitters if he can spot it. There's sort of an "out of sight, out of mind" dynamic at play with Soto since we didn't see him pitch after April last year. As such, he's a trendy breakout pick among prospect heads and he'll be one of the most exciting players in the Twins system to follow in 2026. What's Left To Work On Velocity isn't everything for a fastball. Even a 100 MPH heater will be punished by advanced hitters if it lacks shape and movement. That's been one of the knocks on Soto, whose fastball tended to come in pretty straight and has been susceptible to hard contact when not placed with precision. The righty started working in a sinker variant to supplement his four-seamer, and that could give his overall arsenal a significant boost, but it remains a work in progress. Generally speaking, the quality of stuff is not in question here. Soto has struck out 102 hitters through 87 pro innings as a teenager, and still feels like he's revving up and settling in. Health is going to be the big hurdle to overcome. Missing almost an entire season due to arm issues before turning 20 is far from ideal, but hardly damning. It does leave Soto with some work to do in order to build up as a starter and establish a stamina baseline. If all goes well for him this year it wouldn't be a shock to see Soto reach Double-A by September, but it will likely take some time for him to develop physically and emerge as a factor in the big-league plans. What's Next Hopefully, a fully healthy season to showcase what he can do. Soto's mission will be to keep on refining while reliably taking the mound each turn and hopefully surpassing 100 innings. The crew from Destination The Show recently remarked on Soto's wide range of outcomes, which spans from frontline starter to volatile reliever to injury flameout. We should get a much better idea this year of where the 20-year-old will land. Catch Up on the Rest of Twins Daily's Top 20 Prospects (Part 1) 20. James Ellwanger, RHP 19. Khadim Diaw, C/CF 18. C.J. Culpepper, RHP 17. Kyle DeBarge, 2B/SS/CF 16. Hendry Mendez, OF (Part 2) 15. Marco Raya, RHP 14. Quentin Young, SS 13. Brandon Winokur, SS/CF 12. Andrew Morris, RHP 11. Riley Quick, RHP 10. Charlee Soto, RHP View the full article

Understandably, Fish On First is mainly focused on roster battles taking place within Miami Marlins camp. However, with three weeks of spring training games remaining, let's check in with the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals, who selected Zach McCambley and Matt Pushard, respectively, in the 2025 MLB Rule 5 draft. Both right-handers have already demonstrated that they can be effective against Triple-A competition. Will they get their first taste of the big leagues this season? It's remarkable that Pushard has even made it onto a 40-man roster given his background. He went undrafted in 2022 after spending six seasons at the University of Maine, then struggled in the rookie-level Florida Complex League as a 24-year-old. But over the last three seasons, he led all Marlins pitchers with 129 minor league appearances, posting a 3.19 FIP (2.96 ERA) while reliably throwing strikes and inducing soft contact. The Cardinals have deployed Pushard only once in the Grapefruit League thus far. In his one inning of work on Saturday, his average four-seam fastball velocity was 93.3 mph. He also showed his slider, changeup and curveball. The New York Mets' MJ Melendez hit a wind-aided home run off of him. Since the Rule 5 in December, the Cardinals have made several trades confirming that the franchise's long-term sustainability is a far higher priority than maximizing wins in 2026. Beyond JoJo Romero, Riley O'Brien, Ryne Stanek and Matt Svanson, it seems their bullpen plans are fluid. That bodes well for Pushard. McCambley, on the other hand, was a prominent Marlins prospect from the beginning. A third-rounder out of Coastal Carolina, he was invited to big league camp for the first time way back in 2021. Miami attempted to develop him as a starter during his first two MiLB campaigns. His transition to the bullpen was rocky—his walk rate stayed uncomfortably high in 2023, then soared even higher in an injury-shortened 2024. As discussed with Corey Seidman of Sports Illustrated, McCambley found his groove with Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville last season in part thanks to the addition of a cutter. He describes it as a "bridge pitch" between his mid-90s four-seamer and signature sweeper. The Phillies are approaching 2026 with a "deep playoff run or bust" mindset and the investment they've made in their roster reflects that. It's atypical for a 96-win team with a payroll over a quarter-billion dollars to make room for a Rule 5 guy. While Pushard doesn't face much resistance in his pursuit of an Opening Day opportunity, McCambley really needs to earn his. Controlling his fastball will be crucial; through three spring innings, the 26-year-old has already issued five walks (all of them fastballs that missed low or away or both). Due to Rule 5 restrictions, McCambley and Pushard cannot be optioned to the minors at any point during the 2026 season. If their teams no longer feel that they merit active roster spots, they have to be designated for assignment, then offered back to the Marlins for $50,000 if they clear waivers. What is the likelihood that these former Fish wind up back with their original organization by season's end? I estimate there is a 70% chance of McCambley being returned, with Pushard at 33% (1-in-3 chance). View the full article

When the Blue Jays welcome the Athletics to the Rogers Centre on March 27, there’s one man who deserves to throw the first pitch: Kevin Gausman. For the last four years, Gausman has been the steady anchor of Toronto’s pitching staff. Since he joined the team on a five-year, $110 million deal, he has made 125 starts, plus another seven in the playoffs. He has been the picture of durability, consistency, and excellence. Yet, Gausman has never started for the Blue Jays on Opening Day. In 2022, it was José Berríos. Alek Manoah received the honour in 2023. Then it was Berríos again the next two years. Last September, Gausman made the best start of his career. He stayed hot into October, giving the Blue Jays 30.2 innings with a 2.93 ERA. If he hadn’t already earned the 2026 Opening Day start before his dominant showing down the stretch, he had certainly earned it when all was said and done. In all likelihood, John Schneider will make the right choice and tab Gausman for the season opener. But just for fun, I decided to consider the cases for his other candidates. Dylan Cease Gausman was better than Dylan Cease last year. He’s been better than Cease over the last three years, the last five years, and throughout their respective careers. However, the realities of the aging curve tell us that Cease is more likely to be the better pitcher in 2026. Gausman turned 35 in January. Cease just turned 30 in December. Every projection system at FanGraphs – ZiPS, Steamer, ATC, THE BAT, THE BAT X, and OOPSY – has higher expectations for Cease than Gausman. Cease is also Toronto’s shiny new toy. The righty signed the most expensive free agent contract in Blue Jays history this winter, kicking off a thrilling, high-spending offseason. He's the only pitcher other than Gausman with a realistic shot to win the Opening Day start. Trey Yesavage You have to admit, it would be fun. Trey Yesavage is the Blue Jays’ ace of the future. There’s no one the fanbase is more excited about right now. Has he “earned” the Opening Day start? No, probably not. But what a way it would be to continue his remarkable story. From Single A to the majors to the playoffs to Game 1 of the World Series to Opening Day starter in less than 365 days. I can’t think of any better way to keep last year’s momentum alive than giving Yesavage the ball for the team’s first game back in the Rogers Centre since the World Series. Cody Ponce Only one Blue Jays pitcher was an All-Star last year: Cody Ponce. Only one Blue Jays pitcher won a Triple Crown last year: Cody Ponce. Only one Blue Jays pitcher was an MVP last year: Cody Ponce. Of course, all those achievements come with a caveat. Only one Blue Jays pitcher played in the KBO last year: Cody Ponce. Still, his 2025 season was undeniably stellar. If Ponce had stayed in Korea, there’s no question he’d be starting on Opening Day. The Blue Jays could honour that by giving him the Opening Day start in Toronto instead. José Berríos Is there a good case for José Berríos to be the Opening Day starter? Of course not. It wasn’t so long ago that we were wondering if he’d make the rotation at all. Yet, Berríos beat Gausman for the Opening Day start in 2022, ‘24, and ‘25. So why not this year too? After all, Gausman was the better pitcher in 2021… but Berríos got the nod in ‘22. Gausman was the better pitcher in 2023…but Berríos got the nod in ‘24. Gausman was the better pitcher in 2024…but Berríos got the nod in ‘25. Season Pitcher W-L ERA IP WAR 2021 Kevin Gausman 14-6 2.81 192.0 4.8 2021 José Berríos 12-9 3.52 192.0 4.0 2023 Kevin Gausman 12-9 3.16 185.0 5.3 2023 José Berríos 11-12 3.65 189.2 2.9 2024 Kevin Gausman 14-11 3.83 181.0 3.0 2024 José Berríos 16-11 3.60 192.1 1.1 2025 Kevin Gausman 10-11 3.59 193.0 4.1 2025 José Berríos 9-5 4.17 166.0 1.3 So, as well as Gausman pitched in 2025, and as much as Berríos struggled down the stretch, history tells us we can’t rule out another José Berríos Opening Day start in 2026. Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber I’ve lumped Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber together because neither of them is actually going to be ready to pitch on Opening Day. The team has already confirmed that Bieber will begin the season on the injured list. Scherzer signed late, and there’s a good chance he’ll need extra time to ramp up – and the Jays have every incentive to give him as much time as he needs. Yet, if either one of them were healthy, their cases would be pretty clear. Scherzer may not be an ace anymore, but he’s a no-doubt future Hall of Famer who could be entering his final season. Bieber is Toronto’s other Cy Young winner. If he can get back to full strength, there’s a real possibility he proves himself to be this team’s best starting pitcher. Eric Lauer Everyone else gets hit by a bus. Lazaro Estrada Eric Lauer also gets hit by a bus. View the full article

We’re back with our second installment of the 2026 Top Prospects Rankings. If you missed the first round, catch up on them right here and then come back to be up to date before we crack open the top 10. As a reminder, these were voted on by the Talk Sox writers. No. 15: Yoeilin Cespedes (Greenville Drive) Cespedes was signed as an international free agent in 2023 to the largest bonus of the entire IFA class. He was technically promoted to Salem last year but failed to see any game action as he was scratched from his debut with hand soreness; eventually, he would be placed on the injured list with a broken hamate bone that ended his season. Cespedes is a bat-first shortstop who may not stick there as he climbs up the system, as his defense isn’t up to par with guys ahead of him at the higher levels. He may end up sliding over to second base, which would help extend his time in Boston’s system, but he’s eligible for the Rule 5 draft in 2027. Thus, it wouldn’t come as a shock to see him included in a trade package at some point over the next year unless he has a breakout year in Salem, where he should begin the season. No. 14: Henry Godbout (Greenville Drive) Godbout was selected by the Red Sox in the second competitive balance round in 2025 out of Virginia. He is technically a second baseman in the system but has spent time at third previously and was announced as a shortstop, even though it remains to be seen if he will see any time there as a pro. He slashed .341/.473/.477 over 13 games with the Drive last year. His right-handed bat will help satisfy lineups that lean lefty heavy up and down the system, but he needs to find a bit more power in his swing to be considered anything more than a future backup. He’s a contact-first bat that should play well at second base, but if he were to move off second for another position, then an uptick in offensive impact will be necessary. He passes the eye test at the keystone but leaves a bit to be desired in terms of flashy defensive plays. No. 13: Johanfran Garcia (Greenville Drive) The last remaining Garcia brother in the Red Sox’s system, Johanfran is a catcher who projects to have a ton of power as he climbs prospects rankings. On top of that, he’s proven to be a capable defender who isn’t afraid to get in the dirt to block balls and make plays. He’s a decent framer, for what that’s worth with the league-wide adoption of the ABS system, and could possibly be making noise as a backup to Carlos Narvaez as quickly as next season if everything clicks. Garcia features a great arm behind the plate and will likely lean on Narvaez as he grows in the system to best utilize that strength to throw out would be base stealers. He slashed .249/.327/.428 with nine home runs over 46 games last season. No. 12: Jake Bennett (Worcester Red Sox) Bennett came over from the Washington Nationals in a rare, one-for-one, prospect-for-prospect trade during the offseason. Headed back to the Nats was highly touted RHP Luis Perales, so Bennett has some big shoes to fill. So far, he’s doing just that. As of this writing, he’s appeared in one spring training game for the Red Sox and he looked absolutely dominant during that outing. His fastball was up to 98 mph, faster than he’s previously thrown. He has the size, extension, and control that Andrew Bailey loves in a starter and should be a contributor in Worcester from Opening Day. Expect him to remain in the rotation there, but you could see him as a late season call-up to add depth to the bullpen too. No. 11: Miguel Bleis (Greenville Drive/Portland Sea Dogs) Bleis has been a mainstay on top prospect rankings for the Red Sox since he was acquired as an IFA in 2021, but his time to make good on that distinction is quickly ticking away. He has the potential of a standout outfielder but, so far, has failed to put it all together to make much of an impression. He’s dealt with injuries in every season of his pro career and is flirting with carrying the dreaded ‘chronically injured’ designation that every player hopes to avoid. Putting together a healthy and productive 2026 would go a long way toward establishing him as a player to watch moving forward, but his hit tool is so streaky that it’s incredibly hard to project how impactful he’s going to be moving forward. He’s eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft this coming December, so if there’s any indication he’s progressing, the team is either going to have to trade him away or protect him on the 40-man roster if they don’t want to risk him being selected with no compensation in return. What stands out in the 11-15 ranked prospects to you? Let us know in the comments below! View the full article

On Sunday, after the Royals' 3-1 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, manager Matt Quatraro announced that Luinder Avila will be joining Team Venezuela for the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Avila will be joining Team Venezuela along with Royals teammates Salvador Perez and Maikel Garcia, who were announced to the roster earlier in the offseason. In addition to those three, Bobby Witt Jr. and Michael Wacha will be joining Team USA; Vinnie Pasquantino and Jac Caglianone will be joining Team Italy; Seth Lugo will be starting for Team Puerto Rico; and Carlos Estevez will be pitching for Team Dominican Republic. Michael Coyle had a breakdown of all participants in the World Baseball Classic on February 5th here at Royals Keep. Avila ranks 13th on our Top 20 preseason Royals prospects list. He had a strong MLB debut, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 13 appearances with the Royals. He also posted a 28.6% K% and had a 2.09 xERA in his first stint against MLB competition. In Royals camp, he's been in competition for not just a roster spot, but perhaps a spot in the Royals' rotation. Quatraro mentioned in a press conference in Spring Training that Avila had "frontline starter" potential. Prior to his call-up, the 24-year-old primarily pitched as a starter in the Minor Leagues, posting a 5.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 53.1 IP with the Storm Chasers last season. However, he still posted a 28% K%, a 17.7% K-BB%, and a 4.38 FIP, indicating he was better in Omaha than his ERA suggested. This spring, Avila has been off to a strong start in Cactus League play. In 4.0 IP, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. His K% and K-BB% are a little low at 21.1% and 10.5%, respectively. That said, his TJ Stuff+, chase, and whiff metrics have still been strong, as seen below via his TJ Stats summary. Avila has a 100 overall TJ Stuff+ but has four pitches with marks of 100 or higher and grades of 54 or higher. His curveball has been his best pitch this spring on a TJ Stuff+ end, with a 59 grade, but it has only generated a 20% whiff and chase rate. On the flip side, his sinker, his worst pitch in terms of TJ Stuff+ (93 and 45 grade), but it's been his best offering in terms of generating chases (66.7%) and whiffs (53.8%). His slider and changeup have shown promise, but he's only thrown them one time each this spring. The Venezuelan righty will likely pitch out of the bullpen for Team Venezuela in the WBC. Carlos Hernandez was the last Royals pitcher to pitch for Team Venezuela in 2023 and had a solid showing. In 2.2 IP, he struck out five batters and allowed no runs, no walks, and only three hits. Hernandez's solid performance in the WBC helped him get off to a strong start in 2023, as he posted a 3.83 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, a 28.8% K%, and 22% K-BB% in 44.2 IP in the first half. His strong first half prompted the Royals to trade away established closer Scott Barlow to San Diego at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, Hernandez regressed sharply in the second half, posting a 7.82 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 7.16 FIP, 21.1% K%, and 5.7% K-BB% in 25.1 IP. Let's hope that Avila not only gets valuable experience competing in the WBC but also has a solid performance that can be parlayed into another step forward in pitching development in 2026. Avila has a lot more upside than Hernandez, and he will be needed, especially with Stephen Kolek straining his oblique and likely starting the season on the 15-Day IL. The World Baseball Classic kicks off with pool play on Thursday, March 5th, and will conclude on March 17th. Venezuela is in Pool D with the Dominican Republic, Israel, Nicaragua, and the Netherlands. More information about the World Baseball Classic can be found on its website. View the full article

On Friday, former MLB pitcher Dan Serafini received a sentence of life in jail. He was found guilty of murdering his father-in-law, attempted murder of his mother-in-law, and burglary. During the hearings, Serafini continued to say he was innocent. He called himself a "broken, imperfect man that makes mistakes." The Twins drafted Serafini out of Juniper Serra High School in San Mateo, California., in 1992. Ten years earlier, Barry Bonds was drafted out of the same school. In 1985, the Mets drafted Gregg Jefferies out of the same school with the 20th overall pick. In 1995, the Expos selected catcher Tom Brady in the 18th round. (I believe he went to college in Michigan. I wonder what he's been up to the past 30 years?) Players currently at Minnesota Twins spring training from the high school include outfielder James Outman and relief pitcher Julian Merryweather. Serafini debuted with the Twins as a 22-year-old in 1996. Over parts of three seasons with the Twins, he made 14 starts and pitched in 35 games. He went 9-6 with a 5.88 ERA. He pitched for the Cubs in 1999. He split the 2000 season between the Pirates and Padres. He pitched in the minor leagues in 2001 and then pitched in China in 2002. He came back to the States in 2003 and got into 18 games for the Reds. He then pitched in Japan for three seasons. In 2017 as a 33-year-old, he got into three more big-league games with the Rockies. From 2008 through 2013, the southpaw pitched for various teams in Mexico in both summers and winters. He played a couple of seasons of independent ball in the Atlantic League. He was also a part of Team Italy in the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics. Serafini will serve out his sentence at the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. View the full article

Last season, Reese McGuire saved the Chicago Cubs from what felt like onrushing disaster. In a game in Cincinnati in late May, Miguel Amaya suffered an oblique strain that would sideline him for almost three months, leaving the team completely dependent on co-starter Carson Kelly. McGuire had been stashed at Triple-A Iowa, whence he was rushed to the banks of the Ohio River to fill in for Amaya. He responded with two homers in his first game with Chicago, and stuck around for the balance of the season. McGuire, who turns 31 on Monday, went on to hit nine home runs in 44 games and 140 plate appearances for the Cubs, and was excellent at throwing out runners trying to advance on errant pitches or steal bases. His pitch framing graded well, too. The Cubs non-tendered him in November, which was to be expected. After that, though, McGuire expected to field at least a couple of big-league offers from other teams. None came. With spring training looming (and knowing that any catcher hoping to make a team needs to be in camp as early as possible), McGuire agreed to a minor-league deal with Milwaukee on Jan. 28. At least, he figured, he would have a decent chance to claim the backup role to William Contreras, with the optionable and inexperienced Jeferson Quero as the only obstacle in his path. Two weeks later, Milwaukee signed veteran catcher Gary Sánchez to a big-league deal. McGuire is now in camp with a team that has two roster-locked big-leaguers at catcher and a top prospect who will be the top priority at Triple-A Nashville. It's not a great spot to be in, for a guy who felt that he took such a step forward last year. You could forgive McGuire for feeling pretty put out about it all, and he admitted to feeling upset—but his attitude about the circumstance in which he finds himself could hardly be better. "I was absolutely hoping, you know, for a guaranteed deal, and I felt like, coming off one of my better years at the plate and being on a successful, winning team with the Cubs and producing when the moments mattered, I was actually pretty shocked that I didn't have a guarantee," he said. "It's upsetting, you know, you work hard and—but at the same time, you've gotta be able to just turn the page, and just realize that it's a 162-game season and things happen, and just be ready for that opportunity like I was last year." Admittedly, even McGuire's ostensible breakout—his nine home runs were a career high, and the only time he's posted an OPS+ higher than last year's 94 was in 2019, when he had even fewer plate appearances and played only 30 games—was not a tour de force at the plate. He did generate good power, but he walked a platry 2.9% of the time and had an appalling .245 on-base percentage. Still, he did what was asked of him, and more, and if the league had taken a bit more note of his defensive improvements, he might have gotten that guaranteed deal. As it is, teams rarely pay for the defensive chops of backup catchers, even though that's the trait for which they select players to fill that role. Guys like McGuire thus end up in a (forgive the pun) Catch-22. "When you're on that catching train and you're the backup catcher—you're in that realm—whether you're in Double A and you're destined to do that or whether you're [used to starting], it's a survival position," manager Pat Murphy philosophized. "Whatever breaking balls are thrown at you, you spit at them and you say, 'Hey, I'm still here.' You don't bite for that, you know? I think that's where [McGuire]'s at. He sees a real possibility here, and we're happy to have him." So far, he's not only had to find time between starts by Contreras and Sánchez, but sometimes had to be the guy who comes in along with the shock troops from the minor-league side in the sixth or seventh inning of Cactus League contests. With Contreras departing to play for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, McGuire will get more meaningful looks in games over the next fortnight, but he knows that his real opportunity in Milwaukee depends on an injury, so he's trying to focus on locking in the improvements he made as a thrower and a receiver last year. When the subject is the craft of catching itself, he's animated by a passion that will be good for the organization even if it's relegated to working with Quero in Nashville. "Last year was kind of the second full year of the right-knee-down method that we've seen across the league," McGuire said, referring to the newly prevailing catcher stance league-wide, "so last year, I was definitely more confident in starting in that position, but also modifying it and being able to pop up quicker and get my right knee off the ground and be able to use it." McGuire learned not to be "stagnant" on the ground, even in a stance designed for the stability that engenders optimal pitch-framing. He felt that better timing of his weight-shift in preparation for a throw, especially on steal attempts, led to better throws. "But also, you do have to just credit the pitching staff as well, for being quicker to the plate," he added. "The Cubs were very in tune with runners and times to the plate, and there was some opportunity for me to be up on two feet, instead of having a right knee down. When I'm up on two feet, I definitely feel at my best, so there were times where that was the case. "And then, up the middle, honestly, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are two of the best taggers in the game, so when I would just put it anywhere near second base, they would pick it up off the ground, at times, and help me out a lot." Although he deeply appreciated his time in Chicago, McGuire also watched with admiration when they played the Brewers. That helped him decide between the minor-league offers he got in January, and it goes beyond the tagging skills of Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz. "Being in this clubhouse around these guys, it's a great group. It's a hungry group," he said. "It's very much my style of baseball, very grind-it-out, one-run games, move a guy over, get him in. Sometimes it's not flashy, but at the end of the game you look up and you're like, 'Man, they beat the crap out of us.'" Nor is he missing the opportunity to work with Charlie Greene, Nestor Corredor and a deservingly vaunted Brewers catching instruction group. "Yeah, we've been working on a ton of defensive stuff, receiving," McGuire said. "Every day, I feel like I'm getting better at something. I mentioned that when I first came here: It's fun to think that I've been in the game for over 13 professional years now, and I'm still learning, still finding ways to increase, whatever it is. It's been a great camp so far." Make no mistake: this isn't the circumstance McGuire wants to be in. However, he's learned not to let that make him ungrateful for the place he's in, or the chances that still lie ahead of him. It's a long season, and although no Brewers fan is likely to find themselves rooting for McGuire to make the roster (which would mean an injury having befallen at least one of Contreras, Sánchez and Quero), if he does end up being part of the club, he's well-positioned to contribute. 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This isn't an endorsement of small-sample fodder, nor an argument that spring training statistics correlate to the ensuing MLB regular season. In the case of the Miami Marlins, though, their primary catcher of the present and presumed primary catcher of the future have produced a stark contrast in results through the first third of the Grapefruit League schedule. This understandably is drawing even more attention to the already-present narrative that the inevitable transition from Agustín Ramírez to Joe Mack behind the plate should be expedited. The Marlins number two prospect per our rankings, Mack has thrived in his 11 plate appearances thus far, hitting .333/.455/.667/1.122. Meanwhile, Ramírez is off to a feverishly slow start, going 0-for-14 with six strikeouts. No other player in the sport has accrued as many plate appearances as the 24-year-old without reaching base safely. When does the conversation shift to Mack potentially breaking camp with the big league club? "Joe Mack is going to play for us at some point. When that is, I don't know," noted Marlins manager Clayton McCullough. Mack, renowned for his defensive prowess, seemed to realize some of the potential thrust upon him in the batter's box, hitting 21 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A in 2025, OPS'ing a career-best .813. If Mack brought even three-quarters of that offensive output with him to Miami, in tandem with his defense, he would become the franchise's best all-around backstop of the post-J.T. Realmuto era. As for Agustín, there are multiple ways one could approach this. He was one of just four rookies in 2025 to hit 20-plus home runs, finishing sixth in NL Rookie of the Year voting. This isn't to ignore the red flags in his profile, though, as Ramírez walked in just 6.2 percent of his 585 plate appearances (MLB average is 8.4%). He was also considerably better in games started at designated hitter, when he could apply his full focus to his offensive responsibilities. On the whole, his 92 OPS+ made him a below-average hitter. Despite catching in just 73 games last season, Ramírez's 10 errors led all MLB catchers, as did his 19 passed balls. According to Fielding Bible, only Salvador Perez (-15) put up a worse defensive runs saved total than Ramírez's minus-14. His work ethic earns praise from Marlins leadership, yet the early returns this spring are underwhelming. In all likelihood, the Marlins won't budge on their conservative plan unless Mack sustains this pace for the remaining three weeks of exhibition games. The expectation is still that Ramírez and Liam Hicks will form their Opening Day catching tandem. A 2024 Rule 5 draft pick out of the Tigers system, Hicks showed promising plate discipline, OBP'ing .346 across 390 plate appearances. While not known for his defense behind the plate, Hicks certainly feels safer behind the dish than Ramírez, graded out as about an average defender according to DRS, while also appearing in parts of 28 games at first base. Regardless of where he opens 2026, there's a sense that we're on the precipice of seeing Joe Mack impact the Marlins at the major league level. The Game at Hand Chris Paddack made his second spring start for the Marlins on Sunday, tossing two scoreless innings in the club's 3-0 victory over the Nationals. Originally drafted by Miami in 2015, Paddack would be traded to the Padres in the deal that netted Fernando Rodney in 2016. Debuting in the majors in 2019, Paddack owns a 4.64 lifetime ERA over parts of seven seasons. In 2025, his first season post-Tommy John surgery, Paddack pitched to a 5.35 ERA across 158 innings between Minnesota and Detroit. "Really good day for Chris...Really good day to build off of," noted McCullough. Speaking of his experience with the Marlins thus far, Paddack reflected on the highs and lows of his career, spoke about the early discussions he had when meeting with the club prior to signing. "Something I think we all need to be reminded of, even at this level is, 'Hey man, you're really good. Believe in yourself.' That's something that was told to me in that first Zoom call, and that we're not on the phone to fill a roster spot—we think you can contribute...and we want to help you find that ceiling," remarked Paddack. News From Around Camp - Thomas White, the club’s top prospect, has a Grade 1 right oblique strain. McCullough stated that White experienced some discomfort in his spring debut on Thursday. The timeline for his return to play is 3-4 weeks. Setback aside, White appears to be a name who could impact the big league roster at some point in 2026. - Bradley Blalock, acquired by Miami over the offseason from Colorado, is the only healthy arm in big league camp who has yet to make a Grapefruit League appearance. He's slated to make his spring debut in the next couple of days, per McCullough. - Christopher Morel and Griffin Conine swapped spots on the defensive side of the ball, with Conine making his spring debut at first base, and Morel in right field. Morel, while in line to be the club's primary first baseman, is expected to see time at both third base and the outfield at points this season. In 105 games with Tampa Bay last year, he hit .219 with a .684 OPS. View the full article

Max Scherzer will need a 40-man roster spot once his signing becomes official, and the Blue Jays freed up that spot this weekend by designating Ben Cowles for assignment. The Cubs, his former team, swooped in to claim him back. Over the past six months, Cowles has been DFA'd by the Cubs and claimed by the White Sox, DFA'd by the White Sox and claimed by the Cubs, DFA'd by the Cubs and claimed by the Blue Jays, and DFA'd by the Blue Jays and claimed by the Cubs. Talk about a whirlwind. The reason the Cubs DFA'd Cowles in February was to make room for free agent signing Shelby Miller on the 40-man roster. Today, they made room to re-add Cowles by placing Miller on the 60-day IL. I wrote about the Blue Jays claiming Cowles in mid-February, explaining why I liked the addition, minor as it was. With that said, Cowles never had a great chance of making much of an impact for Toronto, so it's not particularly surprising he was the casualty for Scherzer. Cowles went 0-for-9 with five strikeouts in five Grapefruit League games. He'll now head to Arizona to play in the Cactus League with the Cubs. View the full article

FORT MYERS — Joe Ryan’s spring training ramp-up will continue in Twins camp, but his World Baseball Classic debut with Team USA will wait at least a little longer. Twins GM Jeremy Zoll said Sunday that Ryan will not participate in the WBC pool play round (or the exhibition games leading into it), but will be eligible to join Team USA later in the tournament if the Americans advance. Zoll described the decision as a collaborative one involving Ryan, his agent, Team USA, and the Twins, emphasizing that the goal is to make the “smartest and best” choice for everyone while keeping a close eye on how things look once pool play concludes. Ryan’s build-up after a scratched start last weekend appears to be back on track. Ryan said he’s been feeling “really good all week,” and threw a bullpen session on Saturday. He said the session shifted from delivery-focused cues into more pure execution as the session progressed. He said a few things still need refining, but he was pleased with how his work translated. “I felt really good about it,” he reflected. His next steps are lined up: another live session in the coming days and then hopefully a game appearance after that. Whether or not he joins Team USA depends on how those go, and what their needs are as they (hopefully) advance to elimination rounds. Byron Buxton, who left today to join Team USA, said yesterday that his understanding is that Ryan is “in a great spot” based on what they’ve discussed. He added that while Ryan wants to be with Team USA, “we also know what’s important and what’s at stake,” and he expects Ryan to join the team at some point. What’s at stake for the Twins is pretty simple: they can’t afford to have setbacks with Ryan’s timeline, because the rotation has already taken hits and the margin for error is shrinking fast. With Pablo López lost to Tommy John and Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and David Festa already needing early-spring monitoring and modified build-ups, the Twins’ best-case scenario is getting to Opening Day with as many dependable, prepared starters as possible. View the full article