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The Minnesota Twins have eight players with at least 10 big-league starts under their belts (or at least piggyback bulk outings): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Mick Abel. There has been much handwringing this offseason about how that lot will be sifted and sorted. The team hasn't shown any openness to rolling with a six-man rotation on Opening Day, even when that meant leaving a good pitcher on the outside looking in, as was the case with Ober in 2023. In fact, they’ve been more likely to open the year with a four-man rotation, given the number of off days MLB schedules at the beginning of the year. In 2019, for instance, they used Martín Pérez out of the bullpen for the first couple of weeks. By contrast, in the bullpen, the Twins lack options. As opposed to the starting rotation, which has eight names for five spots, the bullpen is closer to having five spots for eight names. There are Anthony Banda, Cole Sands, Taylor Rogers, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Eric Orze, who seem earmarked for the pen, and Travis Adams threw a few dozen innings for the Twins last season. Veteran non-roster invitees to spring training—like Dan Altavilla, Liam Hendriks, or Julian Merryweather—could factor in as well. But it’s all still very up in the air. Those other two spots (or three, depending on your opinion on Orze) could also be taken by starting pitching prospects like Connor Prielipp, John Klein, or Marco Raya—or, maybe, some of that work can be taken by whoever of the top eight starters doesn’t make the rotation. There has been talk of starters being moved to short relief. Festa is probably the name most bandied about on this topic. But what if we aren’t talking about short relief? The Twins have, in the past, attempted to carry a designated long reliever. It’s almost become a hackneyed cliché to bring up how poorly that plan worked in 2021 with Randy Dobnak or how Cole Sands spent half the year in the majors in 2023 while only throwing 21 innings. But in 2025, they rolled out a new scheme. The long relievers were on a schedule, similar to the starting pitchers. They did this in the minor leagues with a handful of pitchers, such as Adams, Pierson Ohl, Cory Lewis, Trent Baker, and Darren McCaughan. Instead of starting every fifth or sixth day, these pitchers would pitch in relief every fourth day, on three days' rest, throwing about 60 pitches (if it was going well). It may well have been an experiment, or simply a way to keep arms on the farm stretched out when the minor-league teams had an abundance of starting pitchers on the roster. It should be noted that the premium pitchers were not asked to fill this bulk, piggyback role. Matthews, Festa, Abel, Bradley, and Kendry Rojas started in every one of their appearances at St. Paul, and Andrew Morris only relieved twice. But it was a strategy that the Twins seemed pleased with. After the trade deadline selloff, they introduced the pitching plan to the major leagues. Adams and Ohl both pitched piggyback bulk days, as did veteran Thomas Hatch, and Abel piggybacked twice. This wasn’t a long-term setup, as Adams and Ohl eventually settled into short-relief roles, but it may have been a proof of concept for the team. So, what if the solution to having too many starters and not enough relievers is solved with the same move? Instead of sending a starting pitcher to the minors to lie in wait, what if the Twins designated one of their younger arms as a scheduled bulk reliever? There are some real benefits to this. First, as stated, the Twins would be able to keep their best pitchers out of the minors. If everyone is healthy, they can only keep two of Woods Richardson, Bradley, Matthews, Festa, and Abel in the rotation. Even if someone like Festa were converted to short relief, that would still require two of those other names to be stashed in St. Paul—wasting bullets, as the kids say. And there are already plenty of starting arms in Triple-A, including Prielipp, Klein, Raya, Morris, Lewis, and Kendry Rojas. Second, it fills one of the eight bullpen spots—and with someone who will rack up innings. A designated piggyback pitcher throwing two to four innings every four days likely leads the bullpen in innings and would be one of the better performers on a rate basis as well. With a six-man rotation, the bullpen has to cover the same number of innings with fewer pitchers, but with a designated piggyback reliever, the other seven relievers are likely throwing fewer innings than they would otherwise. Third, it keeps the next line of defense stretched out. The sixth starter, if pushed into regular bulk relief, is always ready to step into the rotation should any injury occur. If they were instead throwing short relief, it may take time for them to prepare to throw five innings in a start—which is part of the reason the sixth arm often starts in Triple-A. If they are throwing 60 pitches every four days, though, they’re ready to step in immediately. Fourth, it also probably keeps the rotation a little fresher. The scheduled bulk reliever’s presence allows the regular starters to go a little shorter when they’re being piggybacked, reducing wear and tear. This is all well and good, and could be a perfectly viable way to keep someone like Matthews or Abel in the majors if they don’t make the rotation, but it’s not a sure bet to work. There are some practical issues—the biggest being in-game decision-making. If Ryan is rolling through five frames on a low pitch count, but it’s his scheduled bulk day, should manager Derek Shelton pull him to hand it off to Abel? If it’s a one-run game, should López be removed and the game be turned over to Matthews in the sixth? How long should he throw? Would it be better to turn the seventh inning over to a setup man, or would Woods Richardson pitch the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings, since that’s what the schedule said? It’d take some real commitment to the philosophy to see this play out in practice. A minor-league team or a team out of contention can more easily commit to such a plan, because its wins and losses are less meaningful. But what about a team that (at least by the claims of their owner) expects to be competitive? For decades, analysts have asked what the future of pitching structure is. In 2009, Dave Fleming suggested a three-three-three rotation in which three pitchers each pitch once through the lineup in each game, for a total of three innings each. (Tony La Russa even tried to implement a version of this in 1993, when he was managing the A's.) Bullpen games and openers are not as popular as they once were, but they have still altered the way we think about divvying up innings. The Rockies briefly tried to carry us back to the days of the four-man rotation (but with hard limits on pitch counts at around 75), in 2012. As we move ever closer to whatever the next age of pitchers is, the Twins seem primed to take one of the first steps toward truly shaking up the four-day rest paradigm, whether it works or not. Could we see them implement it this season, and become the next trailblazers? View the full article

The Boston Red Sox offseason has been one of the more contentious among fans in recent memory. Promises of acquiring Pete Alonso and of retaining Alex Bregman went south as soon as the Winter Meetings began. Despite these letdowns, the Red Sox made substantial upgrades to their pitching staff, adding Sonny Gray, Johan Oviedo, and Ranger Suarez while also getting some much needed lineup support in the form of Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin. Much of the frustration stems from the gap between expectations and reality. Boston failed to add a legitimate 30-plus home run bat, and for a team that finished 22nd in MLB in strikeouts last season, the offense saw little meaningful improvement. There is an argument to be made that swapping out Bregman for Contreras and Durbin is, at best, a lateral move. However, despite the narrative of being a "cheap" big-market ballclub, among their 14 transactions (12 trades, 2 MLB signings), the Red Sox spent roughly $161 million dollars thus far in the offseason, with potential moves still in the works. So, how did the Red Sox do this offseason? Are they a better team than the one that was eliminated by the Yankees in the Wild Card? The answer is unequivocally yes. Grading Every Red Sox Offseason Move Trade: Sonny Gray for Brandon Clarke, Richard Fitts, and PTBNL or cash The Red Sox's first major move of the offseason was acquiring what appeared to be, at the time, their second option in the rotation in Sonny Gray. A model of consistency despite his age, Gray continues to make batters uncomfortable, striking out at least 24% of opposing hitters since 2018, thanks to his deadly sweeper, which continues to grade out as one of the best in baseball. Fans might see his 4.26 ERA in 2025 and be frustrated with the return; his FIP and SIERA both indicate a bout of poor luck relative to his other seasons, but the Cardinals ate some money off his contract in this deal. That makes this deal represent minimal risk. He's one of the best third options in baseball and should thrive in his new environment. Regarding the return, Fitts was able to show what he had in the major leagues and never really excelled despite being an analytics darling. He returned a 12.3% K-BB% and recorded a 5.00 ERA. The real piece in this deal was trading away Brandon Clarke. Some may remember his hot start to the season, posting a 45% strikeout rate in April. After a blister in his hand, he was never really the same, and most prospect analysts tab him as a high-leverage reliever, which is useful in its own right but not someone worth clutching your pearls on if you're in the position the Red Sox are in. He was buried on the pitcher depth chart and had little chance of breaking into the majors in 2026. Trade Grade: B+ Trade: Johan Oviedo, Tyler Sameniego, and Adonys Guzman for Jhostynxon Garcia and Jesus Travieso Johan Oviedo is a classic Red Sox pitching lab play, plain and simple. While his numbers don't jump off the page, he was not acquired for his 2025 ERA, though his 3.57 mark in 40 innings of work is not a reason for discouragement. Oviedo will make his hay due to his unusual release point paired with elite extension. It is a combination that hitters have had a tough time gauging, causing whiffs on his fastball. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Oviedo lowered his release height, causing a new and more elite fastball shape, which clearly intrigued the Red Sox enough to trade one of their top five prospects in Garcia. Garcia also got a cup of coffee in the majors, not doing much with it, but the power is evident. In updated top-100 prospect lists, he appeared toward the bottom or not at all. This is largely due to his poor swing decisions, sporting a 26.1% chase rate and striking out 55% of the time while up with the big league club. While the raw power is real, the discourse all offseason has been about the logjam in the outfield for the Red Sox, and that includes Garcia, who was likely the fifth or sixth option behind the established major leaguers. Ultimately, he was expendable, particularly for a pitcher they believe they can optimize. Regarding the other three prospects, the jury is still out, though none of them cracked either team's top-30 prospect lists. By all accounts, Guzman is a warm body available to catch innings in the low minors. Trade Grade: B+ Trade: Willson Contreras for Hunter Dobbins, Blake Aita, and Yhoiker Fajardo Contreras filled a clear need at first base with Triston Casas' health an enigma, and the Red Sox did not want to force Nick Sogard and Romy Gonzalez to platoon at the position. Their infield defense was also bottom of the league last season. Contreras and his six Outs Above Average will provide a huge help on that front. Contreras, like his Cardinals teammate Sonny Gray, is remarkably consistent. Since 2021, he has hit 20 or more home runs in all but one season and has recorded 2.0 fWAR or more in every season since then. His move to first base last year will help keep him on the field, as he reached 135 games played, his most since 2018. Dobbins is a pitcher who had promise and a potential spot on the roster come Opening Day. He put together 61 solid innings of work in his rookie campaign with a 4.13 ERA and a 6.6% walk rate. The problem lay in his strikeout rate, which came in at a measly 17.6%, which works if you're able to keep the ball on the ground at an elite level. While 48.4% ground ball rate is not bad by any means, it's not enough to warrant full trust in the arm moving forward. I would have liked to see what his season would have looked like had he not torn his ACL in a freak accident while covering first, but that is the world we live in, and it's likely part of the reason the Red Sox felt okay with parting with him. Aita is not much of a loss, but Fajardo is a high-potential arm who profiles as a flamethrower at only 19. Trade Grade: B- Free Agent Signing: Ranger Suarez for 5 Years, $130M After reeling from the loss of Alex Bregman to the Cubs, the Red Sox responded with their first signing of the offseason, bringing in Ranger Suarez. He was not the typical arm the Red Sox targeted this offseason, as he offers minimal height, extension, and velocity. He instead found success forcing soft contact and controlling the strike zone. Suarez returned a 4.0 fWAR last year, a career-high, and a 3.20 ERA, his lowest since 2021. One note of concern is that his fastball velocity has been trending the wrong way over the last three years, starting at 93.4 mph, 92 mph, and then 91.2 mph. Based on results from the Red Sox aforementioned pitching lab, though, I believe that the Red Sox can reverse that trend and get it back up to around 93 mph or so. Nonetheless, the signing officially made the Red Sox one of the scariest rotations in baseball and moved them above everyone in the division except for the Blue Jays. Because of that, I consider this signing a huge success, though the lineup still leaves a lot to be desired. Signing Grade: A- Trade: Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and Comp Round B pick for Kyle Harrison, David Hamilton, and Shane Drohan In a wild six-player trade a day before pitchers and catchers reported to camp, the Red Sox got their middle infielder in Caleb Durbin, who can play both third and second base. Durbin does not provide crazy power, something the Red Sox still need. But he is a fantastic contributor in four of the other five tools necessary to be a successful position player. He rarely strikes out (9.9% K%), swiped 18 bags thanks to his 70th-percentile sprint speed, and is an above-average fielder at third (5 DRS, 2 OAA). Monasterio provides similar utility ability to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, playing 10-plus games at 2B, 1B, and SS, while also getting eight games at 3B in 68 games in the majors. He profiles as a platoon hitter against lefties, hitting southpaws to the tune of a 136 wRC+ with a .837 OPS, whereas against righties it was a 96 wRC+ and a .709 OPS. Monasterio's place on the team come Opening Day will be determined by his performance in the spring, but expect him to start in AAA and be one of the first options up. Seigler crushed Triple-A pitching last season, slashing .285/.414/.478 walking 16.9% of the time and stealing 23 bags. He didn't play catcher except for one game in MLB, being stuck behind William Contreras, but he is a potential option to catch this season. The biggest piece that the Red Sox gave up in this deal was Kyle Harrison, as another Devers trade piece was shipped off. Much like the rest of the high-profile pitchers that have been dealt, there was little room for Harrison in the Red Sox's future plans. The emergence of both Payton Tolle and Connelly Early held him back, as Harrison threw only 12 innings for Boston last season. The ceiling is there for Harrison, a former top-25 prospect, though it became clear as the 2025 season wore on that the Red Sox were no longer interested in finding that ceiling. Drohan projects as fringe rotation option/middle relief arm ranking around 15th on most lists on the Red Sox farm system. He sits mid-90s with his fastball and has multiple above-average offerings. His primary issue is the inability to stay healthy which saw his prospect stock drop over the years. Fans are plenty familiar with David Hamilton, a solid glove with plus speed. Beyond that, he mostly just caused headaches for Sox fans when he stepped into the box, hitting .198 in 2025 with a .590 OPS. Trade Grade: A The rest of these moves are not as significant, so I won't cover them as in-depth as the rest, though they still added to (or subtracted from) the future outlook of the 2026 team. Trade: Isaiah Jackson for Vaughn Grissom This was a necessary move as both parties were ready to move on from each other. With the plethora of injuries that decimated the infield over the past few years, one would have assumed that Grissom's time would come at some point, but it just never arrived. They clearly preferred other options over him, and the Kristian Campbell puzzle still needed solving. Lost in the Betts and Devers shuffle, Grissom was acquired for Chris Sale, who would go on to win a Cy Young the season immediately after. A disastrous move all around. Trade: Ryan Watson for Justin Reimer A Rule 5 trade that was largely ignored, Watson provides solid upside for a Triple-A arm, sporting a 28.1% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate last season, which gave him a 21% K-BB% (99th percentile in Triple-A). Watson, standing at 6'5, provides seven feet of extension, making him an obvious fit for the pitching lab. Watson is a name to keep an eye out for if the Sox need some mid-season bullpen help. Trade: Jake Bennett for Luis Perales This was a rare prospect-for-prospect deal. Bennett, similar to Watson, stands at 6'6 with elite velocity and extension. Because he is in Double-A, we have little in the way of advanced metrics, but he fits the mold that the Red Sox sought out this offseason. He is a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox's farm system and cruised last year with a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Perales will be sorely missed, looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's top closers, sitting 97-98 mph and touching 100. Trade: Gage Ziehl and PTBNL for Jordan Hicks, David Sandlin, 2 PTBNL, cash This trade struck a chord with me. For one, the Wicked Witch is gone, as Hicks simply did not mesh with the Red Sox once he was acquired. On the other hand, we salary dumped our salary dump. It all comes back to Rafael Devers, who remains sorely missed on this Red Sox team. The trade is greater than Hicks, who I'm glad is gone, but never should have been on the team in the first place. David Sandlin has been an intriguing prospect for a while now, but he did not seem to cut it as a starter and did not take to his new role in the bullpen. A brutal 6.7% K-BB% won't fly at any level you're at, but sitting close to 97 mph certainly will. I'll be curious to see what the White Sox do with him as his career unfolds. Ziehl, a fourth-round draft pick in 2024, provides some upside, controlling the zone well with average stuff on all of his offerings. The real win here for the Red Sox was getting off the Hicks contract, not the prospect they got in the deal. Free Agent Signing: Isiah Kiner-Falefa for 1 Year, $6 million Not the middle infield signing fans wanted, but Kiner-Falefa fills a hole and opens up things in the lineup for the Red Sox. He is a clear glove-first signing, providing little in the way of power, but has above-average Defensive Runs Saved numbers at 2B, 3B, and SS. His versatility will allow Alex Cora to play more matchups or give guys some needed rest as the season moves forward. As I said in the linked article, regular playing time for Kiner-Falefa means something has gone terribly wrong in 2026. In an eventful offseason full of various moves, it's clear the Red Sox got better. The question is, how much? That will largely be determined as the season unfolds. If I had to give it an overall grade... Final Grade: A- View the full article

There’s a particular kind of silence at a spring complex when bad news drops. Gloves still pop, conditioning runs still hum, but everything feels a little heavier. The Blue Jays received plenty of reasons for such silences just a day before camp officially opened for pitchers and catchers. Anthony Santander needs shoulder surgery and will be out for five to six months. Bowden Francis will miss the entire season after UCL reconstruction. Shane Bieber’s forearm still needs some rest. The bottom line is the defending American League champions will begin their title defense with at least three holes to patch. The Santander news was unexpected and will cause the biggest ripples. The Jays didn’t sign him to a big deal a year ago as a gamble. They expected the 44‑homer version of Santander from Baltimore that used to cause the Jays grief, not the 2025 edition who limped to a .175/.271/.294 line over 54 games and 221 plate appearances while fighting injury in the very shoulder that now needs surgery. The new timeline points to a mid-July return at the earliest, erasing hundreds of plate appearances from a projected mid‑order bat. All three of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, and Davis Schneider will inevitably see more time in the corners. This could also mean that George Springer will be patrolling the outfield more than initially thought. Manager John Schneider highlighted during his pre-spring training media availability that the team is fortunate to have plug‑and‑play options that reduce the pressures of some of these holes. What wasn’t said is that Toronto's depth also gives the front office additional time to scour the market and consider alternatives through trades or free agency. The Jays don’t need to find a steady, power bat that lengthens the lineup and insulates slumps, but it wouldn’t hurt. Barger might be the answer, and so too might Kazuma Okamoto. However, the expectation that Barger can build upon last season puts an immense amount of pressure on the young player. Meanwhile, Okamoto has an impressive Japanese resumé, but how he adjusts to MLB pitching might be impacted by the building urgency for immediate production. On the pitching side, Francis’ absence might not be immediately noticed, since he was injured for much of 2025, but when healthy (and effective), he eats innings and cuts through lineups. His 2025 line, a 6.05 ERA with 19 homers in 64 innings, hardly screams “indispensable,” but that’s not the point. Depth is essential over the course of 162 regular season games. Bieber sits in the middle of this conversation. The decision to patiently and deliberately ensure his health is perfectly rational. An MRI clean of structural damage. Week‑to‑week progression. Playing catch from up to 90 feet. It's all just a slower ramp-up to protect a pitcher who carried more stress innings than expected barely a year removed from Tommy John. It likely costs the club five to seven early starts, so maybe 30 or 40 innings, in exchange for preserving Bieber for September and beyond. If those innings migrate to José Berríos or Eric Lauer rather than a replacement‑level arm, the math says the Jays might lose only a few tenths of a win by the time the weather turns. On the negative side, this probably means more action for a bullpen that may or may not have Yimi García, who is also working his way back from injury. The 2025 Jays were legitimate. Their 94 wins, +77 run differential and American League crown weren't the product of smoke and mirrors. They led MLB in hits, made consistent contact and rode a resurgent Springer, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was out of this world in October. The pitching wasn’t elite by the headline numbers, but it was good enough. The additions of Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers should have a positive impact and reduce the need for the offense to outperform expectations. Even before the injuries, projection systems liked the Jays. FanGraphs gave Toronto the league's ninth-highest playoff odds, around 60 percent. MLB’s early‑January power rankings went even higher, slotting the Jays second on the board. On paper, a rotation fronted by Kevin Gausman and Cease, a strong catcher tandem in Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman and a rebalanced infield alignment, and a lineup still anchored by Guerrero and Springer will be tough to beat. The injuries don’t erase that foundation, but they do reduce the cushion. In a division where four teams project to win close to 85 games, early losses in April could be the difference between a first‑round bye and a red‑eye flight to a three‑game Wild Card set. So, are the Jays in trouble? That depends on how you define it. If you mean existential “trouble,” then no. Vlad Jr. is forecast to hit like a top‑five bat again (.299/.385/.533, according to the Steamer model), Cease provides the team with more confidence this year than Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer last year, and Kirk has matured at the plate and behind it. Yet, if “trouble” means thin margins between April and June, then yes, they’re in a tough spot. Santander’s surgery removes some of the balance in the lineup, both from his switch-hitting and power. Bieber’s delay forces the club to trust that the bridge pieces will hold long enough for him to be himself when it matters. Francis’ absence thins the stage crew that keeps the lights on. All of this is survivable, but concerning. Context sharpens the edges. The American League is better at the top than it was a year ago. The Mariners' run prevention and infield overhaul launched them into top‑three chatter; the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles are all projected to win 84 to 88 games; and the Central division might see some improvement too. This outlook reflects public models and league‑wide previews that have repeatedly tagged the East as the most stacked division. For the Jays, that means April leverage is not simply a "nice to have." What can they do about it, besides wait for Bieber and Santander to return? The answer is the same one Schneider gave implicitly last October: lean into the things that age well. The bullpen can carry more of the run prevention burden, and the infield defense is built to turn hard contact into outs. Springer at DH more frequently keeps one of the league’s most dangerous bats fresher. It’s not glamorous, but it’s how you convert coin‑flip games in May into extra rest days for September. And if the internal corner outfield committee doesn’t deliver enough thump by June, the front office has preserved options for a measured trade, which is exactly why they’ve resisted the urge to overreact before the market settles. Still, the thin line is real. Lose one more middle‑of‑the‑order bat for a month, and the calculus changes from “patch and advance” to “rearrange the architecture.” But this is where the Jays find themselves. Many weren’t sure last year’s team would be successful. While the challenges may add pressure and stress, they can also turn into motivation for a team hungry to repeat. The Blue Jays didn’t win last year by fluke. They succeeded by doing all the little things right. They won by getting contributions from everyone. The 2026 season has already added some new wrinkles. From April through June, when the roster is thinnest and the AL field is deepest, the team will need to find ways to win. That’s where the line between contender and crisis is drawn. If Toronto can otherwise stay healthy and navigate these early challenges, the conversation we’ll be having in late summer won’t be about trouble. It will be about seeding. View the full article

Otto López is already one of the better Miami Marlins waiver claims of the past decade, and certainly of the Peter Bendix era. In less than two full seasons since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, he has posted 4.8 fWAR—that's tied with Xavier Edwards for the most total value of any Marlins player. Looking into Lopez further, I believe there is the potential for a breakout in 2026. The data shows his underlying skills are improving. From 2024 to 2025, Lopez increased his bat speed, expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, and barrel rate while decreasing his chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. The combination of hitting balls harder without compromising his approach is very encouraging. So why didn't this improvement translate to more production in 2025? Lopez's OPS actually dropped from the year before. That largely comes down to poor luck on balls in play, specifically at loanDepot park. In 2025 at home, Lopez posted a .627 OPS and 73 wRC+, compared to a .714 OPS and 98 wRC+ on the road, with a 31-point gap in BABIP. This was the opposite of 2024, when he performed better at home than on the road. Strange as well is that Lopez increased his pulled fly ball rate and FB% in general. All this points to him having sharply underperformed for reasons beyond his control. As an example, this hard contact of 108.2 mph off the bat of Lopez with a launch angle of 14 degrees had a 74% chance of being a hit. It's expected slugging percentage was north of 1.000 because of the high likelihood it would've been a double or triple had it found grass. A good read by Boston's Ceddanne Rafaela turned it into an out. TzBsMDBfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGxOVVV3RlhVZ0VBQ1ZvTEJRQUhVQWRTQUZoV0IxRUFVVjFVQmdWV1YxWmRVUVJR.mp4 Lopez underperformed his xSLG last season against every category of pitch (min. 100 pitches). The 27-year-old could benefit from lifting the ball more, as he still has a ground ball rate above league average. He also has a vulnerability to changeups, producing a .132 AVG .176 SLG, and .158 wOBA against the pitch. Lefties will continue attacking him with them until those results flip. SzRsV2pfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdOUVVnZFdYMUFBV1FkWEF3QUhVZ0ZVQUZoV1ZnSUFVVjFVQ1ZWVVVBdFZBUXBm.mp4 Considering how well Lopez fairs vs. fastballs, I would wager the poor results vs. changeups are a byproduct of selling out for fastballs, rather than him not being able to read offspeed stuff. Besides the likely improvements on the hitting side, Lopez showed the Marlins organization he could stick at shortstop. After swapping positions with Xavier Edwards, he put up plus-four outs above average and plus-seven defensive runs saved. Speaking with Fish On First at Marlins Media Day last Friday, Lopez said that his first step and the accuracy of his throws were areas he focused on improving during his offseason training. Nnk5TW9fWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdoVFVGWlNYd1FBRGxWUVZ3QUhVZ0JlQUZsVFZ3UUFBVlZSVmdZTkJWZFVCUVlF.mp4 Otto Lopez already ranked 12th in fWAR out of all shortstops in 2025. If Lopez has luck on his side as I predict for 2026, with a full healthy season with great defense, he will easily find himself as a top-10 shortstop. View the full article

As spring training gets underway, the Kansas City Royals have made an addition to the club's pitching depth, a day after pitchers and catchers reported to open camp. The Royals acquired right-hander Mitch Spence from the Athletics in exchange for minor league right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence, a former 10th-round pick by the New York Yankees in 2019, was taken first overall by the then-Oakland Athletics during the 2023 Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft. Spence spent the past two seasons in the Athletics’ organization, pitching to a record of 11-16, 4.77 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, across 67 games and 236 career innings. Over the two years, Spence has shown an ability to be used both as a starting pitcher and in a relief role. Last season, Spence appeared in 32 games, with eight of those being starts, and went 3-6, with a 5.10 ERA, an identical 5.10 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP in 84 ⅔ innings. Spence’s hits allowed, home runs allowed, and walk rates all jumped from his rookie year, where Spence went 8-10 with a 4.58 ERA, a slightly better FIP of 4.21, and a WHIP of 1.38. The Royals’ rotation will likely consist of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. Spence will likely slot into the depth group with Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert as options in case injuries strike. As many Royals fans know, 2025 saw significant injuries to both Ragans and Bubic, so depth is vital across an 162 game season. Spence’s ability to pitch in multi-running roles could allow the 27-year-old to be called up when injuries strike, when the team is playing through a long stretch without a day off, or to help limit some innings on a taxed bullpen. Heading to the Athletics is Causey, who reached as high as Double-A last season with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Used solely as a reliever across both Single-A and Double-A, Causey appeared in 48 games, across 73 ⅓ innings, pitching to a 11-5 record, 1.72 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP, holding opposing batters to a .186 average against. The 23-year-old is a former fifth-round selection of the Royals during the 2024 MLB draft. The Royals begin their season in Atlanta on Friday, March 27, at 7:15 p.m. EST. View the full article

As spring training gets underway, the Kansas City Royals have made an addition to the club's pitching depth, a day after pitchers and catchers reported to open camp. The Royals acquired right-hander Mitch Spence from the Athletics in exchange for minor league right-hander A.J. Causey. Spence, a former 10th-round pick by the New York Yankees in 2019, was taken first overall by the then-Oakland Athletics during the 2023 Major League Baseball Rule 5 Draft. Spence spent the past two seasons in the Athletics’ organization, pitching to a record of 11-16, 4.77 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, across 67 games and 236 career innings. Over the two years, Spence has shown an ability to be used both as a starting pitcher and in a relief role. Last season, Spence appeared in 32 games, with eight of those being starts, and went 3-6, with a 5.10 ERA, an identical 5.10 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP in 84 ⅔ innings. Spence’s hits allowed, home runs allowed, and walk rates all jumped from his rookie year, where Spence went 8-10 with a 4.58 ERA, a slightly better FIP of 4.21, and a WHIP of 1.38. The Royals’ rotation will likely consist of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. Spence will likely slot into the depth group with Bailey Falter, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert as options in case injuries strike. As many Royals fans know, 2025 saw significant injuries to both Ragans and Bubic, so depth is vital across an 162 game season. Spence’s ability to pitch in multi-running roles could allow the 27-year-old to be called up when injuries strike, when the team is playing through a long stretch without a day off, or to help limit some innings on a taxed bullpen. Heading to the Athletics is Causey, who reached as high as Double-A last season with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals. Used solely as a reliever across both Single-A and Double-A, Causey appeared in 48 games, across 73 ⅓ innings, pitching to a 11-5 record, 1.72 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP, holding opposing batters to a .186 average against. The 23-year-old is a former fifth-round selection of the Royals during the 2024 MLB draft. The Royals begin their season in Atlanta on Friday, March 27, at 7:15 p.m. EST. View the full article

The Brewers and Red Sox partook in the trade heard around the world earlier this week. General manager Matt Arnold, known for his ability to find players with upside and send them into Milwaukee's remarkable development program to maximize their talent, shocked many when he traded his entire big league depth chart earlier this week. Caleb Durbin, Anthony Seigler, and Andruw Monasterio all went to Boston. This begs the question: who will play third base now? In this video, we analyze the possibility of Joey Ortiz, Andrew Fischer, Brock Wilken, and Luke Adams all being the team's starting third baseman come Opening Day. View the full article

Kendry Rojas dominated the minor leagues last season until he got to Triple-A. In this video, we take a look at whether he can get back to producing like an ace or if he‘ll disappoint in 2026. View the full article

There's a certain tension between what Cade Horton throws and what he says (or thinks) he throws. Ask Horton, and he'll tell you he has a four-seam fastball, a changeup, a slider and a curveball, and that he worked in a sinker with some success in 2025. Baseball Savant reflects that. However, Baseball Prospectus has a wider array of potential tags for pitch types, and does a better job of classifying pitches—sometimes even contravening the identifications the hurler themselves assign to their offerings. For them, Horton throws a hard cutter (what he calls the fastball), a sweeper (what he calls his slider), a slider (what he calls his curve), and the changeup and sinker. Horton is such an extreme natural supinator that even though he doesn't consciously throw a cutter or a sweeper, those are the shapes his fastball and slider approach. Everything he throws moves to the glove side more than one would expect, based on his three-quarter arm slot. Only a handful of pitchers in the league are more unusual in this way, and most of them throw from lower slots, so Horton gives hitters a unique set of problems to solve. This should sound familiar. As we've discussed before, Horton is very much like fellow Cubs starter Justin Steele, who has thrived as one of the best pitchers in the National League for the last half-decade with a brace of pitches that won't stop moving toward right-handed batters. He, too, has what he calls a four-seam fastball but what acts like a cutter, and a slider that sweeps so much that Prospectus classifies it that way. There are three key differences, though: Steele is left-handed; Horton is a righty. Steele has largely kept his secondary breaking ball, a true curve, in his holster. He'll throw it, but it's not a major part of his approach to either right- or left-handed batters. Horton is much more comfortable with that power curve (or slider) than Steele is with his bigger breaker. Horton's changeup is a better pitch than any offspeed offering Steele has come up with to date. The first of those three things works in Steele's favor, when it comes to the other two. Left-handed batters are less used to facing lefty hurlers than right-handed batters are to facing righties. Thus, the natural platoon split for a southpaw is wider. When Steele starts, opposing managers tend to stack their lineups with right-handed bats. However, even without the platoon advantage, Steele finds an advantage based on handedness. His stuff profile bullies those hitters, steering everything in on their hands or toward their back knee. It's a set of pitch shapes a lefty batter would be much more comfortable seeing from a righty pitcher, because they have more reps against righties than even righty batters have against lefties—especially ones who pitch like Steele, A lack of familiarity or comfort makes Steele a tough matchup. Horton is unusual, too, but not in a way that stumps opponents quite as thoroughly as Steele can. Thus, whereas Steele can survive (and even dominate) by attacking hitters with that cutter-sweeper mix, Horton has to do more things well. Happily, he's already adjusted to that reality. He throws his curve/slider much more than his slider/sweeper to lefty batters, and he no sooner found this highly effective changeup than made it an important part of his repertoire against them. He has to be more well-rounded and versatile than Steele, but luckily, he's proving to be. It doesn't hurt that he throws about 4 miles per hour harder than Steele does. There's a question worth asking here, though. Horton has that second breaking ball, with more depth and just as much velocity as the sweepier one. He uses it against righties, because righties would (frankly) wreck the sweeper. But he only threw the curve/slider 18% of the time when facing lefties as a rookie. He threw the changeup a bit more, but that still left him going to the four-seamer/cutter 55% of the time. That might be too much. In his first whirlwind tour of the majors, lefties didn't really get to him, but they certainly had a better time of things than righties did. Horton v. RHH: 228 PA, .184/.260/.301, 51 K, 16 BB Horton v. LHH: 248 PA, .251/.302/.361, 46 K, 17 BB If he makes no significant adjustment, it seems fair to say that he's going to experience unpleasant regression against lefty batters in 2026. To avoid it, Horton needs to go to the curve/slider more. There's a minor problem with that plan, though, which we should also talk about: he needs to better understand his own fastball. Here, from a good approximation of a lefty batter's vantage point, are the average trajectories of Horton's three main pitches against them in 2025. You're not a professional hitter, and you're not seeing what those hitters would actually see, anyway, but you're seeing an animated representation thereof. You probably see the issue: The curve comes out of a slightly higher release point and then stays higher than the fastball. One thing Horton does not have, because of the slot he employs and the way his arm works within it, is carry on the fastball or that valuable flatness on the heater at the top of the strike zone. Without that, and with the curve/slider popping out high like that, hitters can distinguish the two offerings fairly early. That works fine if you execute perfectly, and if you've outsmarted the batter. If Horton catches a hitter looking for a fastball but throws them a curve/slider, they're very unlikely to swing. That's bad news if it's a strike-to-ball breaker, but if he throws one that's intended to drop right into the zone and earn a called strike, he'll succeed. If the opponent is sitting on that breaking ball and spots it out of the hand, it might still work, if Horton has thrown a really good strike-to-ball version of the pitch. That's how he can get chases and whiffs with that pitch. However, the fastball's lack of hop means that if a hitter is looking for that pitch and it's not in the zone, they can probably still lay off it. If they're looking for the curve/slider and they get the heater, they're likely to be late, but this is the other problem with his current mix: the fastball isn't always in the right location to properly punish a hitter for being late. For that (and, in general, with a heater that moves toward the glove side, at least relative to almost every other similar fastball), you want to attack the first-base side of the plate. The ball should be boring in on a lefty batter, the same way Steele's hard cutter does. Instead, not quite understanding that he throws a cutter and thinking of it as a four-seamer, Horton mostly keeps the pitch away from lefties. Even without good rising action on the heater, you want to elevate it more than this, to set up the changeup and the vertical breaking ball. You certainly want to attack the inner third with it, at least at times. Horton hasn't found either the right mechanics or the conviction to do that yet. More of that power curve or slider will be vital, for Horton to do as well against lefties as he did in 2025. It'll certainly be necessary, if he wants to improve upon his rookie campaign and prove himself to be the ace of a World Series-caliber team. To properly utilize it, though, he needs to better disguise it out of the hand. That might mean a small amount of specialized mechanical work, but it mostly means practicing attacking the glove side with that glove-side heat, and then having enough confidence to execute a multi-dimensional plan on the mound. He has all the makings of a Cy Young Award contender. If you're expecting him to scale those heights in 2026, though, spend the spring watching how he mixes and locates his stuff to lefty batters. View the full article

Projection systems are not in the business of hype. They are cold, calculating, and often conservative. That's what makes it so interesting when one of them plants a flag on a player who has barely cracked the upper minors. FanGraphs’s ZiPS has done exactly that with Kaelen Culpepper. The Twins likely don’t agree with ZiPS's plan to promote him aggressively in 2026. It seems more likely that they'll roll with Brooks Lee at shortstop. But after a dynamite first full professional season, the Twins' 2024 first-rounder has quickly become one of the system’s favorites, and that's no accident. A Massive Step Forward Culpepper took a massive step forward last season, showing he can impact the game with his bat while sticking at shortstop. In 113 games, he posted a 138 wRC+ with 25 steals, flashing both on-base ability and speed. The organization named him its Minor League Player of the Year, and he enters 2026 as a consensus top-100 prospect. ZiPS noticed. He was among MLB’s biggest ZiPS gainers for 2026, a list that includes Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. A year ago, he was projected for just 0.3 fWAR. Now he sits at 1.9 fWAR, were he to get a full year's worth of playing time. That's a substantial jump for a player who has yet to play at Triple-A. To reach that 1.9 fWAR mark, ZiPS projects Culpepper for 510 plate appearances in 2026. Obviously, that's essentially a default number, to give a sense of what a full season would look like from him. He's unlikely to play that much at Target Field this year. If he did, though, the model thinks he'd be perfectly serviceable. The offensive line is modest on the surface. ZiPS projects a 94 wRC+ and a .376 slugging percentage, pointing to a lack of present power. But there is value baked in elsewhere. He's projected for a .305 wOBA, positive defensive value, and enough overall contribution to be an above-average regular. His player comparisons are not superstar names: Bill Spiers. Howard Freigau. Ricky Adams. Those comps speak to versatility and steady value, more than flash. ZiPS isn't projecting stardom right now. It just shows promise, with room to grow. That's where it gets interesting. The Defense Debate The Twins front office believes Culpepper improved his overall outlook with defensive gains last season. That belief is reflected in the positive defensive projection. “His makeup and his leadership on the field, the way he goes about his work, have all been exactly what we’ve been looking for,” Twins GM Jeremy Zoll said. The arm strength is there. The internal reviews are strong. But not everyone is convinced he sticks at shortstop long term. Baseball America’s JJ Cooper has expressed skepticism about Culpepper’s ability to remain at the position. While he has the arm, some evaluators question his range and actions. Many scouts believe he may ultimately slide to third base. That positional uncertainty matters, because the offensive bar changes depending on where he plays. A 90 OPS+ with solid defense is more palatable at shortstop than at third base. ZiPS, at least for now, is betting that the glove will be good enough. A Complicated Shortstop Picture The Twins' shortstop depth chart adds another wrinkle. Lee is expected to open the season as the starter. The team added a veteran backup option, Orlando Arcia, to provide depth and stability. On paper, there is no everyday job available for Culpepper. But depth charts have a way of unraveling. One injury to a significant player could change the equation quickly. If Lee misses time or struggles offensively, Culpepper could force the issue. Whether it's Lee, Royce Lewis or Luke Keaschall, a major injury to any of the injury-prone infielders slated to start could crack the door for Culpepper. For that matter, Lee is projected for a lousy 84 wRC+ and worse defense than Culpepper, so if you ask ZiPS, the Twins should simply escalate the young player past the incumbent right now. The Twins haven't been shy about promoting prospects who prove ready. Culpepper may not need much Triple-A seasoning. Minnesota saw this in 2025, with Luke Keaschall playing only 28 games at Triple-A before his promotion. The Offensive Ceiling Culpepper is not a finished product offensively. He can be prone to chasing off-speed pitches out of the zone. That approach will be tested at higher levels. But there were encouraging signs, too. He walked 50 times and struck out just 90 times, showing better swing decisions than some evaluators expected. He also reached the 20-home run mark, despite posting the system’s third-highest groundball rate. That's significant. If he can learn to elevate consistently, there's more power in the profile than the current projections imply. That's part of why ZiPS is optimistic. The system sees a player who already produces value and has room to grow if the batted-ball profile improves. Why You Can Love Him, Too Culpepper profiles as an above-average regular with All-Star upside at an infield spot still to be determined. That kind of player doesn't need to be a franchise cornerstone to be immensely valuable. He's played just 139 minor-league games and has yet to face Triple-A pitching. On the surface, it might feel aggressive to expect a big-league debut this season. It's not unrealistic, though. If Culpepper keeps hitting as he did in 2025, the Twins will have no choice but to give him a look at the major-league level. ZiPS already believes he can handle a near-everyday role. Now, it becomes a matter of timing. Projection systems don't often fall in love. When they do, it's worth paying attention. ZiPS loves Culpepper. You probably should, too. Do you believe in the ZiPS projection for Culpepper? If not, what are realistic expectations for him in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

There is no question that A.J. Preller stays busy the entire offseason trying to improve the San Diego Padres' roster. The team's president of baseball operations has the reputation of being one of the most aggressive front-office executives in all of MLB. Even so, there haven't been a ton of moves by Preller this offseason. Sure, right-handed starter Michael King came back, he signed infielder Sung Mun Song from South Korea, and then added another bench bat in Miguel Andujar. Other than that, there haven't been any headline-grabbing moves. So, as the Friars are in the early days of spring training officially beginning, even with some players being in Peoria, Arizona, for weeks already, Preller met the media and gave some thoughts on where the roster stands just a week before Cactus League games begin. Padres Roster Status As most fans know, Preller understands the roster feels incomplete. That begins with the starting rotation. The rotation is pretty good at the top with Nick Pivetta, King, and Joe Musgrove. Randy Vasquez is the No. 4, but the last rotation spot is open with a handful of candidates vying to be on the Opening Day roster, but even those options come with questions. "Looking to add to the starting rotation," Preller said. "We've got some good competition, but I think always looking to fill out innings." View the full article

JUPITER, FL—Day two of Miami Marlins spring training from the Jupiter Academy featured Sandy Alcantara and Thomas White taking the mound and facing hitters. Alcantara, who is entering his ninth season with the organization, debuted his new sweeper in a pitch design session. He threw it about nine times. Why such an emphasis on the sweeper when he already has a deep arsenal to work with? "Because I throw hard, and everything I throw is hard," Alcantara said. "So me and (pitching coach Daniel) Moskos had a conversation last year about that. We needed a big break more and more slow, and finally we got it, so hopefully we do a good job throwing it." Following the pitch design, Alcantara went to hitters for feedback and they said the pitch looked "great." Likely to be named the Opening Day starter for the Marlins, Alcantara will first make his way back down to loanDepot park and represent the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. WBC participants have helped each other ramp up for the tournament by reporting to the Academy early. That includes Venezuela's Javier Sanoja, who faced Alcantara. "Before I took the mound today, I asked Moskos, 'Hey, is Sanoja here?' He said, 'No, but I can get him for you.' So okay, just put him out there. I know he's very aggressive. Maybe he can get an at-bat in the WBC, so let's see what happens." Midway through the at-bat, Moskos yelled "DR 1-0," and Alcantara threw his sweeper, which landed in for a strike. White is the consensus top prospect in the organization and a first-time non-roster invitee to big league camp at age 21. He faced four hitters. The goal for the talented left-hander is to put himself out there and talk to as many guys as he can and soak up information. "Any pitcher," said White when asked if there was anyone specifically he wanted to spend time with. "I also want to talk to some hitters about approach stuff. I threw some live BP's this offseason and Sal Frelick was one of the hitters, and I loved talking to him because he know the zone so well, and his approach is so good that it's good as a pitcher to know what hitters are taking, see if you can outsmart them or use them." White is spring training roommates with Robby Snelling, Fish On First's number three prospect. White describes him as a cheat sheet for his development because the 22-year-old Snelling has "done pretty much everything that I've done a year ahead of me." Making 21 starts across three minor league levels, White had an outstanding 2025 season overall, posting a 2.31 ERA and 2.27 FIP. However, battling through a back issue, his walk rate spiked to 17.6% over his final six starts (compared to 11.6% in all of his previous outings combined). "I just think I wasn't pitching like myself," White said. "My mechanics weren't really where I wanted them to be, not staying through the ball. It made the sweeper really good, but everything else—and especially the command—was affected a little bit." During the offseason, White made mechanical adjustments, increasing his stride length. In limited Triple-A action last September, he averaged only six feet of extension, but currently, he is around 6.8 feet and has maxed out at 7.1 feet. The key now for White in that aspect is consistency. Additional Notes - Manager Clayton McCullough said that Braxton Garrett touched 95 mph in his live BP session on Wednesday. "Yesterday was to try to mimic a little bit more of the first time of getting loose, sitting down and then go out there and kind of simulate what it would feel like to start a game," McCullough said. - On Monday, Andrew Nardi threw a pitch design, two sets of 15 pitches. "Sat 91 mph which is great for me, especially in a bullpen," said Nardi. "I sat down for five minutes and came back out. Was a little stiff, but kind of what everybody was expecting. Haven't done that in over a year." The next step for Nardi is to throw live BP at some point next week. - In addition to Alcantara and White, the following players threw pitch designs on Thursday: Janson Junk, Ryan Gusto, Robby Snelling, Lake Bachar, Tyler Zuber, Josh Simpson, Adam Mazur, Justin King, Karson Milbrandt and Garrett Acton. - Still no word from McCullough regarding which pitcher will start the spring opener on February 21. View the full article

Top-ranked Marlins prospect left-hander Thomas White speaks with the media about learning from big leaguers in camp and the mechanical adjustments he's made entering 2026.View the full article

For the second year in a row, the catcher William Contreras and the Milwaukee Brewers came to a last-minute deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. Contreras and the Crew settled on a one-year, $9.4 million contract for 2026 with a $14,5 million club option for 2027. The Brewers were set to enter the hearing with an offer of $8.5 million, while Contreras was seeking $9.9 million, so Milwaukee definitely moved above the midpoint, which would have been $9.2 million. A three-person arbitration panel would have decided on one of the two figures and nothing else. Last year, the two sides settled at $6 million for 2025 with a $12 million club option for 2026. The Brewers declined that team option, setting up another arbitration battle. A third and final trip through this process looms next offseason. Contreras was the only player the Brewers didn't come to terms with before needing to exchange figures. Since being acquired from Atlanta in a three-team trade before the 2023 season, Contreras has won two Silver Sluggers (2023, 2024) and was a 2024 All-Star. He received down-ballot NL MVP votes in each of his first two seasons. His slash lines for each of his three seasons are .289/.367/.457 in 2023, .281/.365/.466 in 2024 and .260/.355/.399 in 2025. He hit a career-high 23 homers in 2024, with 17 each in 2023 and 2025, typically hitting in the No. 3 or cleanup spot in the batting order. Contreras' 2025 production was hindered by a broken left (catching hand) middle finger, an injury he sustained late in the 2024 season and carried over. It became a big issue early in 2025, but he played through it, starting 128 games at catcher and another 22 at designated hitter. Contreras is one of the top catchers in all of MLB due to his offensive prowess and strong defense. The Brewers' filing of $8.5 million matched the record for a second-time arbitration-eligible catcher, which was set by Will Smith of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Contracts with options are considered multiyear deals and can't be used as comps for other arbitration cases. It is likely that the Brewers will decline next year's club option. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins traded international bonus pool allotments to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for left-handed reliever Anthony Banda on Thursday, they announced. Twins Daily's John Bonnes was on site in Ft. Myers for the news. Banda, 32, has pitched in nine major-league seasons for eight different teams. He has an unimpressive 4.44 career ERA, but since the start of 2024, he's appeared in 119 games and has a 3.14 ERA. He pitched in 17 postseason games for the Dodgers during their back-to-back World Series championship runs. He struck out 23.3% of opposing batters over those two campaigns. Despite having pitched in each of the last nine big-league seasons, Banda has only amassed a bit over 4 years of major-league service time. The Dodgers agreed to a $1.625-million deal with Banda in early January, to avoid arbitration, but they designated him for assignment a month later. Now, the Twins have a chance to control Banda through 2027, at a low price. They designated right-handed journeyman Jackson Kowar for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Banda. View the full article

Joe Ryan did not sound bitter. He did not sound triumphant. Mostly, he sounded tired of the whole thing. “It is what it is—it’s done,” Ryan said, after he and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a one-year, $6.2-million contract on January 26 that includes a $13-million mutual option for 2027. The deal came together just hours before Ryan and team officials were scheduled to board flights to Phoenix for an arbitration hearing. In the end, cooler heads and simple math won out. The Twins and Ryan were just $500,000 apart when they filed figures ahead of the January 8 deadline. For a pitcher coming off a 13-10 season with a 3.42 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 171 innings, the gap was relatively minor. But the process is rarely about the gap. It's about the ritual, and the ritual remains as uncomfortable as ever. A Strong Season With Some Late Noise Ryan’s platform year was strong, by any reasonable measure. He worked 171 innings, missed bats at an elite clip (28.2% strikeout rate), and (for much of the season) was a steadying force in a rotation that needed one. Through his first 121 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.82 ERA and allowed just 14 home runs. He looked like the type of arm who could anchor a playoff series, and was named to his first All-Star team. Then the context changed, and so did his performance. Following a rough outing in Toronto on August 25, Ryan acknowledged that his energy dipped in the weeks after the August 1 trade deadline, when the Twins were no longer positioned to chase a postseason spot. Over his final 10 starts, he logged a 4.89 ERA and allowed 2.2 home runs per nine innings, across 49 2/3 frames. The sharpness faded. The fastball command wavered. The ball left the yard more frequently. In arbitration, those details matter. The late-season fade becomes an exhibit. The home run rate becomes a bullet point. The human context often gets stripped away. For teams and players, this can create wounds that are hard to heal. Ryan recently switched representation to VC Sports Group, but the figures for the filing had already been exchanged with his previous agency. When talks stalled, the numbers went in. When neither side blinked immediately, the hearing date loomed. Ryan admitted he was not a fan of the system and feels like baseball needs to find a new salary system for young players. “They’re trying to win, and that’s kind of their show,” Ryan said. “That’s their baseball game. … I think at the end of the day that process is pretty antiquated, and kind of stupid. No one in the league likes it. No team likes it. No one that works for a team likes it. No players like it. It doesn’t benefit anyone. It’s just a dumb system.” The Skubal Effect If there is any momentum for change, it may come from cases like Tarik Skubal’s. The Tigers ace recently secured a significant arbitration win, as he filed at $32 million and Detroit countered at $19 million. The ruling in favor of the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner broke the previous arbitration salary record of $31 million, set by Juan Soto in 2024. More importantly, it represented a raise of $21.85 million, more than double the previous record increase of $9.6 million set by Jacob deGrom in 2019. Skubal’s victory reinforced the fact that frontline starters with elite results are being rewarded aggressively by panels. When a Cy Young-caliber arm walks into a hearing with comparable stats and walks out with the number he filed, it shifts the landscape. For pitchers like Ryan, that matters. While Ryan is not coming off a complete and excellent season, he is part of a wave of arbitration-eligible starters who combine innings volume with swing-and-miss ability. As salaries for that tier climb through arbitration, teams will have a harder time suppressing numbers by leaning on selective splits or brief downturns. Panels have shown a willingness to reward impact and durability. Skubal’s case strengthens the argument that pitchers with high strikeout totals, strong run prevention, and meaningful innings loads deserve to be paid accordingly. It nudges the system slightly toward the players, even if the framework remains flawed. Business as Usual For the Twins, avoiding the hearing was the priority. Arbitration hearings can strain relationships. They force teams to highlight weaknesses. They require players to sit quietly while their value is dissected in an adversarial fashion. Minnesota has generally tried to avoid that outcome with its core pieces. Getting a deal done at $6.2 million keeps Ryan in the fold on reasonable terms and leaves open the possibility of a $13-million mutual option next season. From a roster-building standpoint, it's tidy. From a player relations standpoint, it avoids unnecessary scars. Still, Ryan’s blunt assessment lingers. The system is antiquated. It benefits both sides, but in somewhat brutal fashion. Both sides play their roles because the collective bargaining agreement requires it. In the end, the Twins and Ryan did what most teams (and players) eventually do. They compromised. They shook hands. They moved forward. The process may be dumb, as Ryan put it. But until something replaces it, this is the game within the game. Do you agree with Ryan that something needs to change? What system would be fair for both players and teams in the next CBA? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View the full article

Kruz Schoolcraft, the Padres' no. 2 prospect, has all of the intangibles to be the team's next ace going forward. In this video, we give an overview of the 6-foot-8 southpaw, his strengths, and overall projection of when you can expect to see him in San Diego. View the full article

Caleb Durbin made the Devin Williams trade an easy win for the Brewers in 2025, eventually holding down the third base job and finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting. Like fellow top-5 vote-getter Isaac Collins, Durbin is now gone. The Brewers included him in a trade, along with cult hero Andruw Monasterio and utility player Anthony Seigler. That still leaves a few internal options for the Brewers at the hot corner. How can that be? Let’s take a deeper dive. 2025 Review Durbin was called up in the second half of April, after Oliver Dunn and Vinny Capra couldn’t hack it at the plate while holding down the hot corner and Tyler Black (who isn't really a third baseman, anyway) on the injured list with a hamate injury that sapped what little pop he'd previously had. Durbin posted 2.8 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference. That made him a solid starter. Durbin was sent to the Red Sox for left-handed pitchers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, as well as infielder David Hamilton, who was part of the package Milwaukee sent Boston for Hunter Renfroe before the 2022 season. Current Roster Situation The question is: how will Durbin be replaced? On the 40-man roster and among the NRIs, Black, Cooper Pratt, and Jett Williams are all one-time or current top-100 prospects in MLB. They all have the potential to produce similarly, on the offensive side, to Durbin, though Black's prospect status is now much more suspect and the other two might not be ready just yet. This doesn’t include other contenders, like Eddys Leonard, Eduardo Garcia, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams, and Jesus Made, though of course, some of those guys aren't ready (or have very low ceilings) themselves. Hamilton has seen limited action at third base in the majors, but he has flashed some offensive upside in the past and might be the best defender in this group. Deeper in the minors, the Brewers have Andrew Fischer, Mike Boeve, Eric Bitonti, Juan Baez, Filippo di Turi, and Luis Pena as potential rapid risers. All have featured potent bats in one form or another during their professional careers. It's a deep position in a deep organization. It's just the immediate future about which there's tremendous uncertainty. Best-Case Scenario A Top 100 prospect replaces Durbin at third base out of spring training. This is not because Hamilton is a horrible player; he's probably better than Monasterio. But if Williams or (less likely) Pratt can keep Hamilton securely on the bench, the Brewers' offense probably ends up being much more potent, which could make a difference in October. Pratt is a minor-league Gold Glove winner who is a natural shortstop, but may not be long for that position due to the presence of Made. Pratt’s offensive profile offers OBP skills and a bit more natural pop than Durbin had. Williams, who is about Durbin’s size, brings a much more dynamic offensive profile, albeit at the price of more strikeouts and greater questions about the bat-to-ball skills. His versatility may make him a more viable super-sub option than starter. Worst-Case Scenario The team eschews an external upgrade to replace Durbin, but none of the above-mentioned cadre of guys pan out. In a panic, the team turns back to Joey Ortiz at third base, or is forced to disrupt the development of Williams or Pratt by pressing them into service before they're ready. The infield defense and the lineup suffer, leaving the front office to scramble for a trade to address the problem in June or July. Overview There are a number of ways for third base to go nightmarishly wrong, at this moment. Trading Durbin was a calculated but substantial risk, unless the team has another move up their sleeves. But the Brewers boast a lot of good options at third base for 2027 and beyond, and that’s a nice position to be in. If someone proves ready a year early or they go patch the position in the final weeks of the offseason, so much the better. View the full article

Since losing Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller knew he had to retool the starting rotation. Dylan Cease and Michael King were about to become free agents and Yu Darvish wouldn't return following elbow surgery that would sideline for more than a year. Down went three major contributors to a Friars team that finished 90-72, second in the NL West. The good news was that Preller could expect to have Joe Musgrove back to join right-handers Nick Pivetta and Randy Vasquez as rotation returnees following his Tommy John surgery after the 2024 season. Even still, the rotation was in a precarious position entering the offseason. Let's break down what was done and where the rotation stands as spring training begins. Who Was Scheduled to Come Back? Pivetta, Darvish and Vasquez were in the postseason rotation, with left-handers Kyle Hart and JP Sears other regular starters from 2025 who would be counted on in 2026. Gone were Cease, King and left-hander Nestor Cortes, all free agents. Pivetta had a career year in his first season with the Friars, going 13-5 with a 3.49 FIP (2.87 ERA) with career bests of 190 strikeouts and 181⅔ innings. He had a 6.9% walk rate, improved from his 8.4% career mark, and 26.4% strikeout rate, right on line with the 26% for his career. In his 31 starts, he limited opposing batters to a career-best .583 OPS, including a .193 batting average, also his career low. That earned him a sixth-place finish in the NL Cy Young Award balloting. Darvish started Game 2 of the Wild Card Series vs. the Cubs, but had been experiencing elbow discomfort for much of the season. He made just 15 starts and had the internal brace procedure that reduces the recovery time by a couple months. Darvish, who had Tommy John surgery in 2015, entered the offseason as a 39-year-old, thus putting his future in doubt. With a report that retirement is a distinct possibility, Darvish's tenure as a Padres player seems over, although his legacy is strong. Vasquez had a solid season, though his 4.85 FIP suggests his 3.84 ERA was a little better than it should have been. Vasquez doesn't do anything special, so he's more or less expected to just eat innings. He could stand to use certain pitches more to be effective and overcome his lack of velocity and stuff. He already has a 39.4% groundball rate on balls in play, so leaning into that aspect could be a positive for him. The 33-year-old Hart made his MLB debut with the Boston Red Sox in 2020 and then didn't have another appearance in the bigs until making the Padres' Opening Day roster in 2025. He made five starts before being sent to Triple-A El Paso, then came back for a spot start in May before going back down. Hart stayed in the minors until coming up in late August to make 11 relief appearances. Sears was the other player the Friars picked up in the Mason Miller trade. He wasn't that good in 22 starts with the A's, playing in a minor-league stadium, and didn't improve in five starts with the Padres. In those combined 27 starts, he had a 5.21 FIP, posting 6.3% walk and 18% strikeout rates. Who Was Added? King was given the qualifying offer, but surprisingly returned to the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal in which he could opt-out after 2026. That was a huge mid-December move that solidified the rotation, giving the Friars a top three of Pivetta, King and Musgrove. Injuries limited King to 15 starts, which likely dampened his value in free agency as well as the price for signing a player with a qualifying offer. He wasn't as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, his first year in San Diego after coming back in the Juan Soto trade with the New York Yankees. Still, he registered a 4.42 FIP with 8.4% walk and 24.7 strikeout rates. Candidates to Join the Rotation The only other true candidate on the 40-man roster is right-handed knuckleballer Matt Waldron, who made just one MLB start and 21 in the minors. That came after 26 starts (27 appearances) with the Friars in 2024 (4.26 FIP). The only other 40-man member listed as a starter is right-hander Miguel Mendez, who was rocked in six starts at Double-A San Antonio in 2025, so the 23-year-old is at least another year away. A few intriguing possibilities were given minor-league contracts with invites to spring training. Those include left-hander Marco Gonzales and right-hander Triston McKenzie. Gonzales didn't pitch in 2025 after having flexor tendon surgery in September 2024, a season in which he made seven starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. He had a really good stretch from 2018-20 with the Seattle Mariners. McKenzie seemed to have a bright future after a really nice 2022 season, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to him being designated for assignment by the Cleveland Guardians early in 2025, then spending the rest of the season in the minors before becoming a free agent. Left-hander Omar Cruz is another possibility. The Bottom Line Preller is likely to add to this group in the near future. He needs to. Pitchers get hurt. This group is thin — very thin. The Friars used 11 starters in 2025 and right now it is tough to find depth that you can have any confidence in beyond maybe eight of the names mentioned. Pivetta, King and Musgrove at the top of the rotation is a pretty good trio. Vasquez as a No. 4 is solid without much more of an upside at the moment. That leaves the No. 5 spot up for grabs. With those four being right-handers, bringing in another left-hander would be prudent. But the top free agents still on the market are all right-handers: Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt and Zack Littell. No matter how he does it, adding another viable rotation member needs to be Preller's top priority before Opening Day. View the full article

The Milwaukee Brewers were second in MLB in stolen bases this past season. This year, they're making the jump to the top. In this breakdown, we cover everything from routine contributors, like Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio, to new additions like Jett Williams and David Hamilton. With everything from depth to high on-base percentage and an aggressive on-base play style, Milwaukee is destined to be the league's best base-stealing squad in 2026. View the full article

The Boston Red Sox are hoping to get a boost to their pitching staff late in the season, just in time for the playoffs. Whether that will be in the form of a starter or reliever remains to be seen; however, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald provided an injury update on the former staff Ace. She reports that Tanner Houck "starts a throwing program next week and is hoping to contribute in September." Having received Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August 2025, that timeline would put him roughly 13 months removed from the procedure. However, even when pictures are cleared to return, it can typically take two to three months for them to fully recover. While returning in September 2026 is a reasonable goal, don't be surprised if we don't see Houck until 2027. Houck, 30, has two more years of team control before entering free agency. While there was some uncertainty whether the Red Sox would tender him a contract this offseason, the right-hander was once the ace of the rotation and looked to be one of the better pitchers in baseball after he broke out in 2024. Across 80 big league starts, Houck has a 4.13 ERA (3.79 FIP) and a passable 14.3% K-BB rate. This will be a storyline to follow, especially as the trade deadline approaches. Depending on the state of the team, will the Red Sox pursue pitching help, or will they be relying on Houck to contribute in September and in the playoffs? Let us know what you think in the comments! View the full article

The San Diego Padres have already landed a big fish in their 2027 international class. Right-hander Yoel King, a 16-year-old Dominican who is already lighting up radar guns with 100 mph fastballs, has a pre-agreement to join the Friars in next year's signing class. The Padres are set to give King a huge signing bonus. King would represent a huge building block as the Padres need to replenish their farm system following numerous trades that have left the cupboard barren. The Padres are at or near the bottom of many system rankings by various outlets. View the full article

The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays went on a magical run that came within two outs of ending a 32-year World Series drought. The offense finished the season in the top five in most offensive categories while relying on a contact-heavy approach at the plate. The Jays hit more home runs than in 2024 (156), but their 191 long balls last season fell short of expectations, as they finished tied for 11th. Key hitters who were expected to be leaned on heavily in the power department struggled on the field and/or battled injuries all season long. Anthony Santander signed with the Blue Jays last offseason after hitting 44 home runs with the Baltimore Orioles in 2024. However, didn't have the same success in Toronto. He struggled at the plate at the beginning of the season and suffered a shoulder subluxation in May, which kept him out until the final week of the regular season. Fans and the organization were expecting far more than six home runs, 16 runs scored, and 18 driven in from Santander's bat, but he wasn't the only heavy-hitter to struggle staying on the field. Daulton Varsho was on pace to surpass his career-best statistics in many categories if it wasn't for his injury-plagued season. He started the year on the injury list, recovering from a shoulder injury. He returned towards the end of April, but a grade 2 hamstring strain forced him to miss all of June and July. Thanks to boosting his barrel percentage from 6.2 percent in 2024 to 15.9 percent in '25, Varsho hit 20 home runs in 271 plate appearances. That home run total was seven fewer than his career high in 2022; however, the center fielder had 321 fewer plate appearances this past season. He also had 19 fewer RBIs in 2025 (55) than in '22, when he hit 74. We could have witnessed an All-Star-caliber season out of the 29-year-old had he stayed healthy throughout the season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was also not in normal heavy-hitter form all year. With the question marks about his future looming over the superstar first baseman – and then the pressure of his massive contract – he wasn't his usual self out of the gate, not hitting his first home run until his 19th game. Overall, his average exit velocity dropped from 93.8 mph in 2024 to 92 mph in '25. Guerrero's hard-hit percentage also dropped from 54.9 percent to 50.7 percent. The Blue Jays' first baseman finished the season with 23 home runs and 84 runs driven in over 680 plate appearances. With how dominant he was in the playoffs, it can be easy to forget that his 2025 regular season was a step back from his 2024. The team will hope for a stronger regular season performance from him in 2026. Amid struggles from likely power sources, the Blue Jays received a power surge from an unlikely player. George Springer emerged as the heavy-hitter in the batting order, something he hasn't been referred to as since 2019 while with the Houston Astros. Last season, the 36-year-old set career-highs in barrel percentage (16.1 percent), average exit velocity (89.9 mph), and hard-hit percentage (47.6 percent). These impressive metrics helped the veteran hit 32 home runs and drive in 84 runs. Both were his highest totals since 2019. Despite inconsistent power production, the Blue Jays won the AL East and advanced to a deep postseason run. This success was boosted by inexperienced names like Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, and Ernie Clement, who performed exceptionally in more meaningful roles than expected. Last season was Lukes's first full season in the big leagues, despite being 31. He posted a 103 wRC+ and a .730 OPS over 438 plate appearances. It was a steady performance the Blue Jays needed, as he was often hitting toward the top of the batting order. Barger has had a roller-coaster two-year MLB career. He was another much-needed power bat that broke out last season. He hit 21 home runs and posted a 107 wRC+ over 502 plate appearances. If he's going to continue being a power source, he needs to improve on his 22.9 flyball percentage (per Baseball Savant). Clement was a consistent contact hitter all season long. He posted a .296 BABIP, just below league average, but his excellence came in the postseason. The utility infielder set a single postseason record for hits (30). Clement will be called upon to maintain his contact success while hitting at the bottom of the batting order. How Will This Year's Offense Compare to Last Year's? After the magical 2025 season ended, fans were excited for an offseason of additions that could get the team back to the World Series. There's no doubt the pitching staff is better after several notable additions. However, the Blue Jays were once again outbid for the top free-agent bat, this time Kyle Tucker. The two-time World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers swooped in late to sign the star outfielder. After Tucker signed, any chance of a reunion with Bo Bichette was quickly snuffed away by the New York Mets. The Blue Jays did add Kazuma Okamoto from Japan, but there's no guarantee he will adapt to MLB pitching quickly. He will be under pressure to fill the offensive void left by Bichette. Okamoto has the skills to hit the 20 home runs and record the 80 RBIs that Bichette would likely have contributed. The Japanese star hit 15 long balls last season but missed half the year with injuries. He hit 30 or more home runs in NPB every year from 2018 to 2023. All eyes will be on him throughout the season. Toronto's need for Okamoto's power has increased significantly with the latest news about Santander. The organization hoped a full offseason to get healthy would help the switch-hitter regain his power swing. However, he will now require left labral surgery, which will hold him out for five to six months. It's a devastating blow to the 2026 plans, especially with the Jays striking out on Tucker. The Blue Jays will likely turn to Lukes to take many of the left field opportunities that have opened up with Santander's injury. He will presumably play in a platoon with Davis Schneider, who will start against southpaws. Schneider didn't have a clear role before Santander's injury. However, now a platoon role makes sense for the 27-year-old. The righty-batting Schneider was not as effective against lefties last season, posting a .708 OPS compared to a .915 OPS against right-handers. That said, he was still able to produce offensively without the platoon advantage; his 106 wRC+ was six percent better than league average. While the Blue Jays have a band-aid they can use to patch up the loss of Santander for at least the first half of the season, it's also highly unlikely that Springer can repeat his monstrous power display. He's 36 now and dealt with several injuries in 2025. Hopefully, more playing time in the DH role (and less in the outfield) will help keep him healthy. Even when he hit 39 homers in 2019, Springer faced a slight regression in barrel and hard-hit percentages the following season. However, that season was the shortened 2020 campaign. Fans need to prepare themselves for Springer to still be productive at the top of the lineup, but there will likely be at least a slight regression in the power department. He could still finish in the mid-20s for home runs, which the Blue Jays will need since they are thin on heavy bats. The upcoming season will be when Guerrero needs to flex his muscles as the franchise player. The Blue Jays are counting on him to return to a mid-30s home run total. Just looking at the lineup on paper, he's the only name that will truly strike fear in opposing teams when it comes to hitting the long ball. Ultimately, health is the Blue Jays' primary concern right now. They can't afford another injury to a key player, or the offense will have to rely on inexperienced players again, as in 2025. That can work, as last proved, but it's risky. And while there's still a possibility the Blue Jays could add a bat, all the top-tier free agents are already on other teams. View the full article

FORT MYERS—Four little words make our hearts soar: Pitchers and catchers report We took last year's gut punch, but come back for more. Pitchers and catchers report The fire sale came; we watched stars depart Felt like someone was stealing our heart But hope’s a disease, and we'll do our part Pitchers and catchers report Debt was reduced, papers were filed Pitchers and catchers report New partners joined (The guy from the Wild?!) Pitchers and catchers report Minority owners now in the mix A new set of suits with their “synergies” tricks We’ll take it, if somehow this lineup they'll fix Pitchers and catchers report They added some bats, the offense to pump Pitchers and catchers report Caratini to catch, Josh Bell adds some thump Pitchers and catchers report Rogers returned, four years gone, now he's back We hope that his left arm has not lost its knack Now get us the closer we somehow still lack. Pitchers and catchers report Joe's out, Tom's in the Executive Chair Pitchers and catchers report Then the BIG change: “Mutual,” they swear Pitchers and catchers report Falvey walks out as the waters get rough "Relentless" Tom chants, as if that's enough Now prove it and fund a 'pen that's not fluff. Pitchers and catchers report Finally, you take your turn as poet Pitchers and catchers report Channel your winter frustration and show it Pitchers and catchers report The comments below are a great place to bleat Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat (But add words wherever, if, like me, you cheat). Pitchers and catchers report View the full article

The Fish On First LIVE panel looks under the hood at what may have motivated the Marlins to spend on two veteran arms coming off disappointing 2025 campaigns. View the full article