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When the Royals acquired Seth Lugo in free agency prior to the 2024 season, it seemed like they struck big with the veteran righty who had only gotten back to starting in 2023 with the San Diego Padres. In 33 starts and 206.2 IP, Lugo posted a 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.25 FIP, 3.77 K/BB ratio, and 4.7 fWAR. Those numbers not only earned him the Bruce Rice Pitcher of the Year award (which goes to Kansas City's best pitcher in a season), but they also helped him finish second in the AL Cy Young race (he was runner-up to Detroit's Tarik Skubal). Even though he was on the older end, the former 2011 Mets draft pick showed that he could be a top-of-the-rotation arm in his first season in Kansas City. Thus, there were high hopes that Lugo could have another strong campaign in 2025 and help the Royals return to the postseason. Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned for Lugo last season. In his second season, Lugo was dogged by injuries and inconsistency on the mound. He landed on the IL twice, with his first stint in May due to a right finger spin and his second due to a lower back strain. As a result, he made six fewer starts and only pitched 145.1 innings, 61.1 fewer than a year ago. While injury affected his inning total in 2025, he was also less effective in his starts, which also contributed to fewer innings on the mound. Lugo posted a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.09 FIP, 2.27 K/BB ratio, and 0.5 fWAR last season, all significant declines from the numbers he produced in his Royals debut in 2024. When looking deeper into his metrics, especially from a TJ Stats summary comparison, he also saw regression in his stuff (as measured by TJ Stuff+), chase rate, whiff rate, and xwOBACON. It's one thing to show a decline in one or two of those areas from one year to the next, as regression is always to be expected from a pitcher who outperformed expectations one season. That said, it's one thing to miss bats, not get chases, or give up hard hits. To allow all three things, however? That's a bit tougher to stomach, especially for a pitcher slotted at the top of the rotation. Interestingly enough, despite trade rumors throughout the season, the Royals opted to give Lugo an extension right before the Trade Deadline. Lugo's two-year, $46 million extension will keep him through 2027. The extension was a controversial choice for the Royals, especially with his age and his lackluster 2025 campaign. At the same time, the new contract may take a weight off of Lugo and allow him to come to Spring Training in Arizona fully focused on pitching and not on acquiring a "new" deal. Thus, what does Lugo need to do so he can be closer to the pitcher he was in 2024 rather than the one last season? Let's take a look at three things that could be worth paying attention to from Lugo, especially at the beginning of the upcoming year. Generating More Chase Lugo found more of the strike zone in 2025. His zone rate rose from 50.4% in 2024 to 51.2% a season ago. However, it seemed like throwing more strikes was a bit counterintuitive, as he generated much less chase. After posting a 27.9% chase rate in 2024, which was around league average, it fell to 23.8% last year, which was rated as below average. That seemed to affect his whiff rate (20.7%) and xwOBACON (.427), both of which were below average. Below is a look at his TJ Stats summary from a season ago, and it's interesting to see how all of his 10 offerings fared, especially in terms of chase. Of his 10 pitches, only two sported above-average chase rates: his curveball (32.6%) and his slow curve (24.1%). Interestingly, his slow curve had the best pitching grade at 74, and his curveball ranked second at 64. Thus, it makes sense that those pitches forced hitters to swing at pitches outside the zone, as they were of high quality. That is further demonstrated in the pitch clip compilation of the curve and slow curve below, which are from outings against the Twins and Yankees, respectively. Unfortunately, while the curve and slow curve were effective chase-inducing offerings, he failed to do much with the other eight pitches. His slurve had a grade of 53, which is above-average. That said, it generated below-average chase with a 25.7% mark. His other breaking offerings, his sweeper and slider, also sported below-average chase marks with rates of 22.6% and 19.2%, respectively. In terms of offspeed pitches, his splitter and changeup were better, with chase rates of 27.3% and 26.1%. Still, they were below the league average in chase rate, and his changeup chase rate was 3.7% worse than in 2024. As for fastball pitches (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), none of them had a chase rate above 23.4% (which was his cutter). Then again, his sinker and four-seamer had grades of 43 and 42, respectively, and his cutter had a 45 grade. Thus, they aren't exactly high-octane offerings, which makes them less prone to generating swings outside of the strike zone. For Lugo to generate more overall chase in 2026, he'll need to be more effective with his breaking and offspeed offerings. The dips in chase in those offerings seemed to have a broader effect on other important strike and batted-ball categories in 2025, as seen in the table below via Savant. By making adjustments to his breaking and offspeed pitches, he'll see positive effects in other areas like xwOBA, whiff rate, and put-away rate. It's likely the fastball metrics will remain stable, as they did from 2024 to 2025 (and it'll always be tough for him to generate high chase rates due to their lackluster velocity). However, he can't be mediocre again with his breaking and offspeed pitches, and focusing on improving his chase of those pitch types will be the key to turning things around. Limiting the Long Ball In addition to generating more chase in 2024, Lugo also did a better job of limiting home runs. Two seasons ago, he allowed a 0.70 HR/9 and 7.4% HR/FB rate, both stellar marks. Unfortunately, those marks rose to 1.67 and 15.4% in 2025. When trying to understand why those numbers spiked so much, it's important to look at the pitch types he gave home runs on a year ago, where they were thrown in the zone, and where in the ballpark they were hit. So let's look at the pitch type zone chart on home runs given up by Lugo in 2025. Hitters launched home runs off Lugo on breaking balls and offspeed pitches that were hung, and four-seamers and sinkers that didn't get vertical enough. Notice the number of waist-level pitches in that zone chart. Those are balls that will be easily launched out of any ballpark. That is further illustrated in the clip compilation below, which shows home runs from Detroit's Andy Ibanez and Pittsburgh's Oneil Cruz on waist-level mistakes from Lugo. Lugo Home Runs-2025 - Made with Clipchamp.mp4 Now, let's look at Lugo's home run spray chart from 2025 to get a sense of where home runs off Lugo were hit a season ago. 21 of Lugo's 27 home runs allowed were by left-handed hitters. Those struggles against lefties were evident in the spray chart above, as many of Lugo's home runs allowed were over the left- and left-center-field walls. That showed that lefties were teeing off on Lugo's mistakes, a sign that he was either tipping against lefties or they were able to pick him up better due to a slight change in mechanics. Lugo had a slightly higher arm angle in 2024 (33 degrees) than in 2025 (32 degrees), but it will be interesting to see if there was something else that was the cause of Lugo's homer struggles against lefties. To compare, let's take a look at Lugo's home run spray chart from 2024, via Savant. Notice in the spray chart above that the number of home runs to left and left-center-field were far fewer. The splits data confirm that Lugo gave up only seven home runs to lefties in 2024, compared to nine to righties. Even then, home runs that were allowed to righties weren't heavily pulled, as most of the home runs allowed by Lugo two seasons ago were in the gaps. That means that while hitters were crushing those balls, they weren't timing Lugo as effectively (while pulled balls signal effective timing). Here is a look at the pitch type zone chart of Lugo's home runs in 2024. Most of the home runs Lugo allowed in 2024 were on sliders and sweepers, as six of his home runs allowed were on those two pitches. He also only gave up one home run on a changeup and only two on the curveball. To compare, he gave up four home runs on changeups in 2025 and three on curveballs. For Lugo to improve his overall line in 2026, he will need to be more effective at limiting the long ball, especially against lefties. Additionally, hanging his curve and changeup less will also be essential. If he doesn't, he could be due for a season closer to 2025 than 2024, not a good sign for a pitcher making $23 million per year. Inducing More Groundballs A key to Lugo's career has been his ability to generate a high percentage of groundballs. He has a career groundball rate (GB%) of 43.5%, and in his first season with the Royals, he had a 44.2% GB%. Furthermore, his GB% was 45.2% in 2023 with the Padres and 45.6% in 2022 with the Mets. That ability to generate a solid number of groundballs is essential to keep the ball in the yard and allow his plus middle-infield defense behind him to make plays and outs. However, Lugo took a step back in this area in 2025. His GB% dipped to 39%, a career-low. He also gave up a barrel rate of 11.1% and a hard-hit rate of 45.2%, both career-highs. So not only was Lugo not keeping the ball on the ground, but he was also giving up a lot of hard, productive contact. When looking at his rolling chart of the launch angle of batted balls allowed by Lugo in 2024, he did a good job of producing below-average launch angle rates for most of the season (especially in the middle of the year). There were spikes of high launch angles allowed on batted balls, but they never persisted for too long, as seen below. Now, let's take a look at the same chart type from this past season. In 2025, Lugo's rolling launch angle chart was the inverse of the 2024 chart. He spent most of the year giving up high launch-angle batted balls and spent less time in that below-average zone (which is where pitchers want to be). This isn't surprising, of course, considering the high barrel and hard-hit rates allowed from 2025. Again, launch angle allowed can be tied to pitch command, and it was obvious that Lugo's command wasn't nearly as sharp in 2025 as it was in 2024. As his issues with chase and home runs allowed Lugo to see more groundballs in 2026, changes in his pitch quality may be needed. He throws a diverse number of pitches, which makes him hard to scout from a hitter's perspective. That said, the focus for Lugo may be on throwing BETTER pitches rather than MORE (which was his strategy last year). The key to inducing more groundballs may lie in the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches, especially when thrown low in the zone. In the wOBA zone chart below from 2024, Royals fans can see how effective Lugo was with his changeup and splitter offerings. In the lower zones, the highest wOBA Lugo gave up, beyond the .428 mark in the lower glove-side waste zone, was .220. That shows that hitters struggled to hone in on offspeed pitches when Lugo commanded them effectively (which is low in the zone). Now, let's take a look at that zone wOBA chart from last year, via Savant. The big difference is the lower armside area of the strike zone (zone 7 technically). After giving up a .224 wOBA in that zone in 2024, it rose to .394 in 2025. He was also hit much harder with offspeed pitches thrown in zone 4 (armside middle zone), as he went from a .194 wOBA in 2024 to a .631 mark in 2025. For Lugo to get back to his groundball-inducing ways again in 2026, he will need to focus on commanding his changeup and splitter better. Additionally, improving the offspeed quality and spin (1,650 RPM on offspeed pitches in 2025 compared to 1,730 RPM in 2024) that made him so effective at limiting productive contact would also be a step in the right direction toward a bounce-back for him in year three in Kansas City. View the full article

Location: A central Minnesota lake, frozen over by the cold condition. (a drone starts high, above the trees, showing an expansive, ice-covered lake. Slowly the drone flies over the lake until it reaches an ice fishing house, smoke coming out the pipe chimney.) Time of Day: A quiet winter morning between the Christmas and New Years holidays. Location 2: Inside the fish house. Big winter jackets hanging up on the wall, a wood floor with four holes drilled into the ice. People: a man just months shy of his 70th birthday. His wife. They have a son and a daughter. Each has their own chair and is responsible for watching one the bobber in one of the holes. While not wearing the heavy jackets any longer, all four are still dressed in layers, jeans, sweatshirts, gloves and stocking caps. The son is wearing a Pensacola Blue Wahoos stocking cap. The other three have Minnesota Twins stocking caps. They are eating breakfast and drinking coffee. Suddenly, a cell phone ringer goes offer (yes, playing Take Me Out to the Ballgame). All four reach for their phones. The matriarch of the family picks up his phone, looks down at it, puts it up to his ear. For the first time, the camera gets a direct shot at his face. He smiles as he says in one of the most recognizable voices in the Upper Midwest, "This is Dick Bremer." On the other side of the phone call are Dustin Morse (Twins VP of Communications and Public Affairs), Dave St. Peter (long-time Twins President). and Hall of Famer Rod Carew. After a few minutes, and a lot of Thank Yous, Bremer hung up the phone. With water droplets emerging, and starting to freeze, Bremer told his family he was elected to the Twins Hall of Fame. Bremer noted later, "It meant a lot to me to have the whole family there. They paid quite a price to let me chase that little white ball around the country." After hugs, the family celebrated with a champagne toast, "...with small Dixie cups. After all, it was in the fish house!" End Scene. On Saturday, July 11th, Bremer will be inducted as the 42nd member of the Twins Hall of Fame. He has been the emcee for many of the ceremonies. Bremer grew up in the small, west-central Minnesota town of Dumont where he began to love playing baseball. When he was about five years old, the Washington Senators relocated to Minnesota, and Bremer has been one of their biggest and most loyal fans. His family moved to Missouri for a couple of years, but he never allowed another team to become his favorite. The family returned to Minnesota, and Bremer graduated from Staples high school. He spent his college years at St. Cloud State. His first job was at a radio station in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, (insert Duke After Dark note here) where he was a disc jockey but also called play-by-play for the University of Iowa's men's basketball team. In 1983, Bremer became the Twins television voice. on Spectrum Sports. He spent three years in the role but didn't work in 1986. He returned to the role in 1987 and held the role through 2023, his 40th season. After the year, he announced his retirement. On Opening Day 2024, the Twins presented him with a plague and named the home TV booth after Dick Bremer. Early in his career, he also called North Star games, Vikings preseason games, Gophers sports, and even some for the Minnesota State High School League. In his time working play-by-play, he had an impressive group of partners in the booth. The first was Harmon Killebrew. (Can you imagine how cool that would be for a kid from Minnesota?) He worked with Tommy John, Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Torii Hunter, LaTroy Hawkins, Glen Perkins, Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Denard Span, and others. In the offseasons, he remained busy, representing the Twins at various functions such as the Diamond Awards, the Twins Winter Caravan, several Hot Stove events and more. In 2020, Bremer wrote his memoir in the book, Game Used, a story of his lif e and times around the Twins. It is broken into 108 "stitches," each a unique story to help explain the lessons he's learned over time. 108 stitches, of course, is the number stitches on a major-league baseball. You'd be hard pressed to find a bigger fan of the Twins, someone as knowledgeable in their history and who has seen so much of it from a really good view. We would be hard pressed to find someone who has been a bigger, more public ambassador for the Twins than Bremer. Congratulations on this well-deserved and well-earned honor! View the full article

In this video, Dave Gasper breaks down the reasons why the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, along with Tobias Myers, and digs into the two players Milwaukee got back in return, Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. View the full article

Before the Milwaukee Brewers shipped ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets, the San Diego Padres were in contention for the right-hander's services. This according to a report by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who said the Padres, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants and Minnesota Twins were in the conversation late. But Rosenthal said the Brewers went with the Mets in part because New York had been the most persistent team. The question from the Padres' perspective is if they had the prospect capital to make a Peralta deal happen. The Brewers received two of the Mets' top-five prospects in infielder-outfielder Jett Williams and right-handed starter Brandon Sproat. While Williams likely needs a little more time in the minors, Sproat is expected to contend for a spot in the Crew's rotation this spring. The prospect closest to matching what the Brewers were seeking, MLB-ready talent, is right-handed starter Miguel Mendez, who ranks as the No. 8 prospect in the Friars' system by MLB Pipeline. But Mendez had only six games at the Double-A level in 2025 and probably has another year in the minors before truly being an MLB option. There are no position players that would have fit that mold, either, even when you consider the Padres' MLB roster. View the full article

This isn't our usual type of note or rumor, but as the managing editor of the site, this is perhaps the most important thing I can share with this community. Our very own @Maddie Landis has been nominated as a SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) Award Finalist! Her piece on Vertical Approach Angle was very positively received on the site, and we knew right away that it was a special piece of analysis. It thrills me to see Maddie's name alongside revered writers and sites like The Athletic, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. If you haven't checked out the piece yet, I encourage you to do so. It's the kind of article that makes you smarter just by reading it, and it'll enhance your appreciation of pitcher analysis by many magnitudes. You can see the full list of SABR Award Finalists here. View the full article

It's hard to remember now, but Jose Iglesias was the only bench player who made the San Diego Padres' 2025 Opening Day roster and lasted throughout the entire season. Martin Maldonado was immediately released upon the acquisition of Freddy Fermin at the trade deadline, Brandon Lockridge was sent to Milwaukee in the ill-advised Nestor Cortes deal, and Yuli Gurriel didn't even make it through April before being designated for assignment. Iglesias, 36, didn't necessarily earn that distinction by virtue of his brilliant play; he hit .229/.298/.294 in 343 plate appearances with the Friars, good for a 73 wRC+. Perhaps more damning, he posted the worst defensive metrics of his sterling career, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both grading him in the negatives for his combined work at second base, third base, and shortstop. Still, that kind of versatility is extremely valuable, particularly for a Padres team that has older players slated to start on the left side of the infield (Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts). The current bench situation in San Diego is largely unsettled at the moment; Luis Campusano is penciled in as the No. 2 backstop, but that's far from a guarantee as A.J. Preller continues to sniff around possible upgrades on the trade market. Bryce Johnson looks likely to break camp as the fourth outfielder, but his lack of power could create an opening for someone else to run away with the job. Will Wagner and Mason McCoy would be fine infield depth, but neither has done enough at the major-league level to feel confident in their ability to fill in for Machado, Bogaerts, or Jake Cronenworth for any extended period of time. Now, Sung-mun Song does change the calculations here a bit as a versatile piece in his own right. He'd be an excellent first-man-off-the-bench option, but the Padres' need for a first baseman and designated hitter (pending Gavin Sheets' development) could force Song to start on a regular basis. Adding a full-time starter at the cold corner would create a hugely important snowball effect that would push Song into a reserve role, but until that happens, the Friars don't have a starting-caliber infielder projected to make the Opening Day roster as a bench player. Iglesias may no longer fit that description either, but it was only one year ago that he was a cult hero for the New York Mets, posting a 136 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR in just 85 games in the Big Apple. He was also much better with the glove while primarily playing second base. The advanced metrics weren't quite so kind, but the green flags in his profile stood out: a 13.4% strikeout rate and 15.2% whiff rate that both ranked above the 90th percentile for all MLB hitters in 2024. It's fair to call that a "Linsanity" run for a player who has never been known for his bat, particularly after Iglesias recorded awful batted ball and contact data in 2025 with the Padres. As a slow swinger who doesn't work a ton of walks, the 36-year-old needs to parlay his bat-to-ball skills into frequent hits to provide any value at the plate. Perhaps at his age, it's wishful thinking to assume he can ever get back to his form with the Mets. But the Padres wouldn't need him to necessarily do that, should they re-sign him. Better defense alone would go a long way to making this team deeper, as would any semblance of his once-elite sprint speed that also began to decay last year. If he could find even a middle ground between his production in 2024 and 2025, he'd be a league-average bat capable of playing every infield position (besides first) with league-average proficiency. That might not sound valuable on the surface, but that's a ridiculous step up from what the Friars got out of their reserve unit last year. So long as his one-game suspension stemming from the Padres' playoff series loss to the Cubs is served without any backlash, there's reason to believe this partnership could be more lucrative the second time around. There are other ways to solve this bench problem. Perhaps Jose Miranda rediscovers his best form in San Diego and makes the team as a non-roster invitee to spring training. Maybe Tirso Ornelas finally emerges as a valuable piece and allows the team to trade Bryce Johnson for infield help. Or, as aforementioned, the Padres could add a first baseman and push Sung-mun Song into a backup role. There's a good argument to be made that all of those options are preferable to re-signing Iglesias after his middling debut season in San Diego. But the veteran infielder is a known quantity with a recent history of success. As a last resort, a reunion with Iglesias shouldn't be ruled off the table — especially if the alternative is standing pat. View the full article

When it comes to building out a 26-man active roster, typically, the bench takes into account the thought of potential platoons, defensive versatility, pinch running, along with overall experience and track record of a player. The Boston Red Sox have done an excellent job of building a bench in previous seasons with the likes of Rob Refsnyder and Romy González proving to be versatile in the field while filling a niche at the plate. Now, the Red Sox are faced with possibly building an entirely new bench with the departure of Refsnyder as a free agent to the Seattle Mariners and the possibility of González entering a platoon with Marcelo Mayer somewhere in the infield. Currently, their bench is likely to feature Connor Wong and David Hamilton, pending any further offseason moves. Wong will be the backup catcher along with a right-handed bat off the bench, while Hamilton could play either second base or shortstop while also being a late-game, pinch-runner option for manager Alex Cora thanks to his speed. Depending on how Cora builds his lineup with the current players on his roster, Masataka Yoshida seems like another option to be on the bench. While dealing with his shoulder issue and rehab during the previous two seasons, Yoshida should be completely healthy now. While his defensive versatility is limited to left field and he lacks game-changing speed, he is a great bat when it comes to putting the ball in play. Should he not be in the starting lineup, he could likely be the first bat off the bench against a right-handed pitcher. Assuming Mayer is at third base and Gonzalez is at second on any given day, that then leaves a single spot left for the bench between two players who both deserve it after their contributions in 2025: Nick Sogard and Nate Eaton. Based off of just minor-league options that remain between the duo, Sogard would appear to have the leg up on Eaton. Entering 2026, Sogard is out of options while Eaton has one remaining. It would allow the Red Sox to stash Eaton in Triple-A Worcester and shuttle him between Boston and Worcester as needed. Sogard, on the other hand, would need to pass through waivers to make it to Worcester, but there’s a good chance a team would take a flier on him based on his profile. During his Red Sox tenure, Sogard has been used as a super-utility player as he’s made appearances at second base, shortstop, third base, first base, and right field. He’s played in 61 regular season games and two playoff games, getting the starts in the first two games of last year’s wild card round. For his career, Sogard, a switch-hitter, has slashed .266/.321/.335 with an OPS of .656. He’s hit 12 doubles and driven in 17 runs while walking just 12 times to 49 strikeouts. Despite seeing more time against right-handed pitching, Sogard has put up better numbers against left-handed pitching with a stat line of .333/.352/.431 in 54 plate appearances. He may not be a perfect player, but he knows how to serve his role perfectly. Defensively, he will provide rest for one of the starters while also providing Cora with a late-game substitution option. There’s no denying he gained Cora’s trust down the stretch as he earned the two starts in the playoffs. His lack of power may hold him back though, and yet the Red Sox may not want to risk losing him. A number of teams would be likely to scoop him up should he fail to make the Opening Day roster. As aforementioned, Eaton is able to be sent to Worcester. The outfielder was a key player down the stretch for Boston and also played in two games in the postseason. Across 2025, Eaton appeared in 41 games hitting a career best .296/.348/.383 with a .731 OPS. He had four doubles, a home run, and four RBIs along with nine stolen bases. He also walked six times against 19 strikeouts. Eaton doesn’t provide as much defensive versatility but has played all three outfield positions and third base for the Red Sox. In the minors, he also played a little second base across his career (41 games across six seasons), though that would most likely only be as an emergency should he make Boston’s roster. Offensively, he doesn’t have much power like Sogard and relies on putting the ball in play and using his speed. While he has hit better against left-handed pitching across his career (.256/.310/.356 in 101 plate appearances) he actually performed better against right-handed pitching with the Red Sox. Regardless, his best skill is his speed. You can never have too many potential base stealers on the bench in a close game and that was on display in September with both Hamilton and Eaton on the active roster. Yet, that may be seen as redundant with Hamilton likely to be on the bench come Opening Day. It's hardly the most important narrative surrounding the team, but the Sogard v. Eaton bench battle may end up being one of the storylines that defines the Red Sox's roster in spring training. View the full article

Jack and Spencer react to the Freddy Peralta trade, including what it does and doesn't mean for the Brewers in 2026. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-brewer-fanatic-podcast/id1740648724 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5CY8mWsQayqjDXqw9OT2Td iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-brewer-fanatic-podcast-166534588/ Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ommzz627 Watch On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@brewerfanatic View the full article

Spring training is still a dot on the calendar, but that hasn’t stopped optimism from bubbling up in Kansas City. The Royals head into 2026 with something they haven’t always had in recent years: stability. A frontline rotation, a true franchise star, and a wave of young talent ready to help. That’s usually when the fun predictions start. Here are five bold ones that could shape the Royals’ season. Jac Caglianone hits 35 home runs If the Royals are going anywhere in 2026, it likely means at least one young bat takes a real leap forward, and Caglianone is built for that role. The sixth overall pick in the 2024 draft already showed last season that his power translates across levels. He hit 27 home runs split between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors, with seven coming in MLB action. The surface results in Kansas City weren’t pretty, as he posted a 46 wRC+, but that number hides more than it reveals. His elite 77.4 mph bat speed and a 12 percent barrel rate give him a power foundation most hitters simply don’t possess. The swing is already loud. The adjustment now is about approach. Even a modest improvement in plate discipline and count leverage could turn more balls into souvenirs. Thirty-five homers sounds aggressive, but with that kind of bat speed and track record, it’s less prediction and more projection. Royals finish top five in rotation ERA This one feels bold only because expectations have quietly risen. Kansas City finished seventh in baseball last season with a 3.80 rotation ERA, and there’s a path to climbing higher. Cole Ragans being fully healthy after a rotator cuff strain last year is the swing factor. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo remain steady, predictable veterans. Kris Bubic is expected to be ready for Spring Training, and Noah Cameron now enters the year with a full season of MLB experience. Bailey Falter provides depth, even with Alec Marsh likely sidelined for most of the year. Pitching depth is fragile, and this prediction depends heavily on health. But if the Royals avoid prolonged absences, this rotation has both the floor and ceiling to sit comfortably inside the top five. Carter Jensen wins AL Rookie of the Year Catchers aren’t supposed to hit like this, especially not this early. Jensen posted a 118 wRC+ in Double-A last year, an impressive number for any catcher, then somehow got better after the promotion. In Triple-A, he ran a 166 wRC+ and finished his minor league stint with 20 home runs across 111 games between the two levels. When he reached the majors, the bat didn’t cool off. In 69 plate appearances, Jensen produced a 159 wRC+, along with three home runs and six doubles. The underlying metrics were just as eye-catching: a .447 xwOBA, a 20.8 percent barrel rate, and a 58.3 percent hard-hit rate. The sample size was small, but it was loud. If Jensen earns regular playing time and sustains even part of that offensive output, he won’t just be the Royals’ catcher of the future — he’ll be a serious Rookie of the Year contender. Royals reach the American League Championship Series This prediction stacks several things together, but none feel unreasonable on their own. If Bobby Witt Jr. stays healthy, the rotation holds together, and players like Caglianone and Jensen provide real impact, Kansas City doesn’t need to dominate the regular season to be dangerous. The first objective is simply getting into the postseason. Once there, October tends to reward teams that can shorten games and lean on starting pitching. If the Royals can win their first playoff series, they’ll look far less like a feel-good story and more like a legitimate problem. David Shields gets a surprise late-season call-up This might be the boldest prediction of the bunch, mostly because of how aggressive the timeline would be. Shields has only reached Single-A so far, but the performance already stands out. Despite inconsistent fastball velocity caused by a hamstring injury early in 2025, the left-hander posted a 2.01 ERA over 71 2/3 innings, striking out 81 batters while walking just 15. His control, command, and feel for breaking balls give him a high floor, and improved health could unlock more velocity as the year progresses. He’s unlikely to be ready as a starter in 2026, but bullpen roles have a way of accelerating promotions. If Shields reaches Double-A by summer and strings together a few strong outings, Kansas City may view him as a late-season bullpen option. Sometimes the most impactful call-ups are the ones no one was tracking in March. View the full article

The hot stove is burning itself out in a blaze of glory. In the last week, a flurry of moves has drawn down the list of truly impactful free agents to just two or three names. Trades have sent frontline starters Freddy Peralta and MacKenzie Gore and talented outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to new clubs. What was fluid for a long time appears increasingly concrete. The contenders and the pretenders are separating themselves much more clearly. After their acquisitions of Edward Cabrera and Alex Bregman this month, the Cubs are very much on the contender side of the divide. However, they insist that they're not done tinkering with their roster, and indeed, we can survey the likely Opening Day corps and see places where upgrades are still possible. Here's how I'd rank the team's remaining needs, a few weeks out from the beginning of spring training. 1. A reliable left-handed batter, ideally with positional flexibility. That's a lot to ask for, in the endgame of the offseason. Worse, the Cubs are likely to ask such a player to accept a roving role that comes up short of everyday playing time, so it's very hard to imagine them both acquiring such a player and keeping them happy. If it were possible, though, it would be awfully nice. Michael Busch is the only left-handed hitter on the roster who has proved he can consistently hammer right-handed pitching. Ian Happ is a de facto second threat, as a switch-hitter, but the uncertainty around Pete Crow-Armstrong and Moisés Ballesteros makes bringing in one more solid lefty bat somewhat important. Don't expect that player to be Luis Arraez. He's still a free agent, but he has very little defensive utility and his game has become a caricature of itself at the plate. He never strikes out, but doesn't hit the ball hard very often, either. Switch-hitter Luis Rengifo could be in the right price range, coming off a disastrous walk year with the Angels after three good ones. He's always been a better hitter from the right side of the plate, though. A trade could unearth just the right player, like Luis García of the Nationals or Hyeseong Kim of the Dodgers, but it's easy to overpay when trying to fill a highly specific need in the trade market. Wary of that, Jed Hoyer and his team might elect to wait and see how urgent this need is come July, by which time enough progress from Ballesteros and/or Crow-Armstrong could obviate it. 2. One More Starter This has been discussed at length in all corners of Cubdom over the last two weeks, but even with an ostensible six-man rotation and Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks able to start the season stretched out in Iowa, the team needs more quality depth in the rotation. That's why they're still interested in Zac Gallen, and will be only slightly less so in pitchers like Nick Martinez and Zack Littell if Gallen signs elsewhere. Injuries are coming for their incumbent starters. Filling this need via trade would be optimal, again, because it would allow them to target a controllable hurler who can be optioned to the minors. If they can find an opportunity to get better and more left-handed on the bench, trading Matt Shaw for a starter who can start the season in the minors would be in play. The team now has three players (Kevin Alcántara, Justin Dean and newly signed Chas McCormick, coming to camp on a minor-league deal) vying for the backup outfielder slot on the roster. Shaw's work in the outfield in Arizona this month is for show, to keep him mollified and to entice potential trade partners. 3. High-Octane Bullpen Help Though they're a bit roster-locked after signing four veterans to big-league deals and needing to stash Colin Rea in the pen for some stretches, the Cubs have depth and optionality in the bullpen. If they're going to make any further moves there, it should be for a no-doubt difference-maker, and it's not at all clear that such a player is available right now. The free-agent market for relievers has run dry, partially thanks to the Cubs. They have a bunch of optionable arms on the 40-man roster, and a bunch more interesting minor-league signees. Unless the Padres are desperate to clear some payroll and want to trade one of the electric arms in their bullpen, the Cubs should just roll into camp with what they have. These needs don't mesh all that well with the market. What's available is more along the lines of positionless right-handed hitters like Miguel Andujar. The fact that he's available is the best reason anyone can muster for why the Cubs have been tied to him. He's not a fit for them. Nor are most of the low-wattage starters left out there. The Twins would like to trade lefty-batting Trevor Larnach, but he can only play left field or DH, so the Cubs would have to be very confident in Shaw as a multi-tool off the bench to deal for Larnach. The Giants keep calling about Nico Hoerner, but their offers aren't getting any better. It's probably true that the Cubs will make one or two more moves before spring training begins. The smart money, though, says that they'll be inconsequential, and probably unsuccessful. Chicago has had a good offseason. They might be out of ways to reasonably improve for 2026, without destabilizing the rest of what they've assembled. View the full article

Watch Brandon Sproat on video, and it's immediately clear that he's not like most Milwaukee Brewers pitchers. In fact, he's not like many pitchers you're used to seeing, period. A product of the University of Florida, Sproat famously bet on himself by declining to sign with the Mets after his junior year, only to go one round earlier to the same team the next year. He's unafraid to go a bit against the grain, and that shows up in his mechanics and his approach to the game. By making him a co-headliner in the Freddy Peralta trade this week, the Brewers made a significant bet on their ability to bend Sproat's skills to their own purposes. Here's a fastball Sproat threw during one of his handful of big-league appearances at the end of last season. OHlCRFBfWGw0TUFRPT1fQWdoVUJsWURWMVFBQ0ZVQ1Z3QUhDUTRFQUZnTVVWWUFCQU1OQXdvQUJRQUdWVkJm.mp4 That's a high-effort delivery, with a bit of herk and jerk to it. The immediately unusual thing you probably noticed is that, after he breaks his hands and brings the ball down by swinging his elbow out toward full extension, he never again has his elbow bent more than 90° for the duration of his delivery. His arm action is exceptionally long, because he's not winding it up the way most modern pitchers do. Instead, he's really using his whole body to launch the ball toward the plate, and his hand merely carries it until it can't hold on any longer. Here's something you might have missed in a quick viewing, but which is equally peculiar. He finishes his delivery of the heater with all four fingers splayed and his hand wide open. He looks like a man stretching out his hand for a book or a glass of water, left at an awkward spot just to his left. Pause and examine the hand position of just about any pitcher after they throw their heater, and you'll see some curl to their fingers. Their third and fourth fingers probably stayed tucked into a relaxed semi-fist throughout, and the first and second usually show the signs of having pulled hard at the seams at release, trying to maximize backspin. Not Sproat. His hand gives the impression that he simply surrounded the ball and flung it on its way when the extreme torque of his sturdy body dictated that he do so. It might not surprise you, then, to learn that Sproat has a below-average spin rate on his four-seam fastball. Indeed, for each of his pitch types, the typical righty working from his low three-quarters slot gets more spin than he does. Let's circle back, though, to that long arm action. To underscore the extent to which this is a departure from the norm, I've captured the moment at which several pitchers' front foot touched the ground while throwing their fastballs—what pitchers call 'foot strike'. This is always a telling moment within the tornadic miniature ballet that is a pitch. Here, we see (clockwise, from the top left) Jacob Misiorowski, Sproat, Brandon Woodruff, Peralta, Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester at that moment. Instead of a significant elbow bend and the ball near his ear, Sproat gets to that point with his hand a good two feet behind his head and his arm much closer to straight. Note, too, that his posture and stride direction are most similar to Peralta's, but that he sets up on the first-base side of the rubber, as all the hurlers here except Peralta do. This delivery has worked for Sproat, in a sense. It's brought him this far, and it allows him to throw his fastball upwards of 96 miles per hour, on average. However, if this is all the athleticism and feel he has in him, his future is almost certainly in the bullpen. His four-seamer lives almost perfectly in the movement dead zone, based on his arm angle. His sinker is a better pitch, but it's only effective against right-handed batters, and it cannibalizes his changeup. He has three above-average breaking balls, but no way to get to them against lefties, and as a starter, he'll see a lot of left-handed batters every fifth day. The Brewers are likely to make some major changes to Sproat's game, if he's amenable to them. A move across the rubber makes a lot of sense, at least on an experimental basis; he needs to find out whether the change in angle would do anything for his arm action or movement. The team will also explore the extent to which they can alter how he moves, though. By and large, it's hard to change fastball shape, and it's hard to give pitchers with little feel for spin that skill. However, there are two things working for the Brewers with Sproat. First, he does show some feel for spin; it's just exclusive to his breaking balls. Relatedly, he throws one of those breaking balls—his curveball—from a higher slot than the rest of his offerings. On the left, below, is him throwing a curveball. On the right is him throwing his four-seamer, in the same game. A move on the rubber and/or a change in his arm angle could unlock something new for Sproat. Right now, he's better off leaning on his sinker and avoiding his four-seamer, but that need not necessarily be true if he changes his delivery somewhat. The Brewers like to get a cutter working opposite the sinker in cases like this, and although Sproat's lower slot (the one he uses for most of his offerings) isn't conducive to a cutter, the higher one could be. If no mechanical changes will take, the Brewers still have ways to optimize Sproat. He should scrap the curve unless he can find another pitch to execute from that same arm slot; he doesn't need it with his present mix and set of looks. He should also avoid using his sinker to lefties, leaning on the four-seamer to set up the changeup. This spring will give Chris Hook, Jim Henderson and their cohort an opportunity to shine. The Brewers brought in a hurler with exceptional arm strength and a few intriguing secondary elements, but one nowhere near ready to thrive in the majors on the team's usual plan. They'll need to formulate a plan that helps him turn the corner, or else be ready to convert him rapidly into a high-leverage reliever. Sproat's feel for spin and his command are important, but starting next month, his shot at taking his career to the next level will depend on his feel for communication and his willingness to relinquish some control of his development. View the full article

It has turned out to be an active offseason for the Miami Marlins, which was difficult to imagine two months ago. Back on November 24, with rumors swirling that the Marlins were eager to spend money but no transactions done to validate that, The Athletic's Brittany Ghiroli reported on their ceased contract extension negotiations with Kyle Stowers. It was a fishy news item to begin with considering Stowers' late-blooming profile—most of his projected prime years were already under the club's control. Unable to entice him with the framework of a below-market deal, there haven't been any substantial updates to that story...and I don't think there ever will be. As a result of subsequent moves, the Marlins are now absolutely loaded with power-hitting outfielders. Although Stowers is the only one in the organization who has translated that to All-Star production at the major league level so far, they seem willing to gamble on younger guys filling his shoes over the next several years. "The similarities" between Stowers and fellow left-handed masher Owen Caissie "are pretty easy to see," Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix acknowledged earlier this month. Caissie is four and a half years younger and two years farther away from free agency. Dillon Lewis doesn't even occupy a 40-man roster spot yet and likewise possesses plus offensive tools. Both cracked the top five of Fish On First's updated Marlins prospects list. The Marlins acquired Caissie and Lewis by trading away Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, respectively. The combination of those moves unquestionably hindered their chances of postseason contention in 2026, but as Bendix repeats ad nauseam, he's always receptive to offers that bring back good value overall. Cabrera and Weathers were both very inexpensive relative to their on-field value and still had three team-controlled years remaining. Stowers could potentially find himself in an identical situation next winter. If Caissie is coming off an encouraging rookie campaign by then, or if Lewis rakes against upper-minors pitching, or if any of the organization's other outfielders emerge as viable everyday options, do you think Bendix will give Stowers preferential treatment just because he helped sell Opening Day tickets? No way. The overall state of the Marlins will impact the length of Stowers' tenure. It's easy for a front office to justify bold moves that sacrifice experience for upside when they are projected for 70-something wins; when they're projected for 90-something, not so much. This season, if Stowers comes close to replicating his 2025 breakout and his supporting cast takes a meaningful step forward, chasing a championship will take priority over the soulless asset accumulation process. Even allowing for that fantasy scenario, we all know where this relationship is headed. Practically every significant historical figure in Marlins history eventually departed via trade or free agency and that will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. For all of his obvious talent, Stowers is doubtful to be an exception to that rule. At some point in the 2020s, he will be wearing a different uniform. View the full article

There shouldn't be many Blue Jays fans out there who need to be reminded of how good Addison Barger is. He's a physical specimen with positional versatility and a knack for bludgeoning the baseball. He has 97th-percentile max exit velocity, 93rd-percentile bat speed, 99th-percentile arm strength, and is simply a fun watch at the plate and in the field. He first broke into the league in 2024 and mostly struggled out of the gate, but just a year later, he became the poster child for betting on tool-rich prospects, delivering a 188 wRC+ in the postseason despite not truly finding his groove until Game 6 of the ALCS. Only, his high-upside skill set has yet to pay dividends over a full 162-game schedule. His offensive results in 2025 were merely good, not great. He had his first extended hot stretch in May and came into the All-Star break with a 125 wRC+, but finished the regular season at 107 after a choppy second half. He had a wRC+ over 140 in two separate months, but straddled the Mendoza Line post-trade deadline. Especially for someone with Barger's raw power, consistency is often synonymous with discipline: He chased pitches at a rate in excess of 40% in July to set the stage for a cold August, but was at his most patient in September before catching fire in October. Concurrently, he was prone to extended periods of striking out at a 30% clip, but that rate will sit in the low-20s when he's at his best. Of course, it was his first full season in the league. He's only 26 years old and has just 727 regular season plate appearances to his name. He was an elite hitter for a greater portion of 2025 than he was hovering around replacement level, and saying the best is yet to come for him is an opinion that would fall into the category of freezing cold takes. Still, he hasn't proved himself worthy of an All-Star nod or anything of the sort. There are holes in Barger's game that prevented him from taking a truly meteoric rise last year. What are they? The low-hanging fruit here is his plate skills. His chase, swing-and-miss, strikeout, and walk rates all placed between the 30th and 36th percentiles, and for that higher-than-average chase tendency, the rate at which he swung at strikes was actually below-average, indicating poor swing decisions overall (and as we now know, the discipline in particular can come and go at a moment's notice). He also recorded his fair share of mishits, evidenced by a 25th-percentile squared-up percentage, which is Statcast's measure for collision efficiency on contact. I don't want to spend too much time harping on him for this. It's a simple fact that hitters of this archetype, ones that swing hard with a high capacity to do damage and subpar bat-to-ball abilities, are likelier to experience a much wider range of outcomes over the course of a season compared to those with a lower ceiling but better plate skills (our beloved Ernie Clement, for example). Besides, it's not like his contact or his selectivity is bad enough that he's a below-average hitter. I'd be able to make a significant dent in the supply of the nearest vending machine if I had a dollar for every time John Schneider has told the media that he preaches "being yourself" to his players. He says it a lot because doing what you're good at is a sound philosophy. If Addison Barger tries too hard to hit .290, he risks losing his calling card: damage ability. This version of him, the one that doesn't have a .370 OBP or a low-90s zone contact rate, can be great. No need to reinvent the wheel. It may seem counterintuitive given his high bat speed, flat swing tilt, and general strength, but his pitch type splits from 2025 indicate some struggles with fastballs. Observe: Pitch Group Run Value Zone Swing% Chase% Zone Contact% wOBACON EV90 Bat Speed 90 Barrel% HH LA° Fastballs -5 65.3% 30.8% 81.8% .380 105.3 mph 80.3 mph 11.5% 8.5° Non-Fastballs 6 67.9% 31.2% 82.3% .434 107.1 mph 80.0 mph 11.4% 9.1° Fastballs include four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters. It's worth noting the average chase rate on secondary pitches is about seven points higher than on fastballs, so it appears Barger simply doesn't have a good eye for the latter. Despite similar top-end bat speeds, contact rates, and batted ball angles on hard hits between these two groupings, he makes better swing decisions, hits the ball harder, and gets better results on contact against the slow stuff. In theory, if he saw fastballs better, everything else would play up too. He'd be likelier to make more contact, and more quality contact at that, if he swung at better pitches. This is particularly true at the top of, and just above, the strike zone, where most of his swings and misses against velocity were. However, a deeper look at the bat tracking splits tells a much more revealing story: Pitch Group Attack Angle ° Attack Direction ° (pull = lower) Pulled Flyball% Fastballs 5° 6° 5.8% Non-Fastballs 13° -14° 8.7% It's timing. I included pulled flyball rate at the end to emphasize what attack angle and direction tell us. Attack angle is in many ways a counterpart to launch angle, measuring the angle at which the sweet spot is traveling at contact point. Attack direction shows the position of the swing from a horizontal standpoint. Barger had a ~70th-percentile pull air rate in 2025, and most of that was happening against secondaries. He couldn't position his swing to hit home runs off fastballs with regularity. He has power to all fields, so this could be by design to an extent, but regardless, it came at an apparent cost to his propensity for turning on velocity. He hit secondaries for grounders at a higher frequency than fastballs, but his popup rate on heaters was nearly double in comparison. Barger made some significant overhauls to his swing in 2025, adjusting his stance and catching the ball an average of 4.3 inches further in front of home plate than he did the year before, one of the largest increases in the league. Naturally, secondaries have a shallower average contact point than fastballs (they aren't as fast!), but he could stand to lean into that trend a little further to try to rework how he times the hard stuff. Resetting timing on fastballs is a rather acute adjustment. From a thousand-foot view, if Barger wants to take another sizeable leap in 2026, he could also work on his swing against lefty pitching. He only saw 89 plate appearances against them last year, which resulted in a run value of -3. He still tore the cover off the ball when he managed to put it in play, but those poor results were mostly driven by suboptimal batted ball angles, disproportionate swing decisions, and low contact rates. His contact point was also much deeper than it was against righties, another telltale sign he didn't pick the ball up out of their hands. A platoon weakness is not uncommon among young lefty sluggers, and Barger is surely working on that through the offseason, but taking more competitive at-bats in same-handed matchups would go a long way toward earning him the unbridled trust of his coaching staff. It's hard not to be excited about what Barger could accomplish in 2026. He has tantalizing bat speed and exit velocities and has shown he can lift and pull the ball without being totally reliant on one type of swing. The 2018 sixth-rounder showed impressive flashes of the player he hopes to become with more stability moving forward, already having developed from an extremely raw power-inclined prospect to an above-average third baseman/right fielder. If October was any indication, most of his road to becoming a truly excellent staple in this lineup has already been travelled, with solving lefty pitching and timing up velocity being some of the only boxes he has left to check on the way. In any case, with the sweepstakes for both Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette being won elsewhere, his place on this roster is that much more important. View the full article

The offseason picture became far clearer over the last few weeks, with four of DiamondCentric's top-10 free agents signing. That still leaves room for additions in Boston, specifically regarding the infield. Other than Eugenio Suarez, Bo Bichette was the only truly enticing infield option remaining. Once the Red Sox signed Ranger Suarez, Bichette was no longer in the picture, so it just became a matter of seeing where he would land. The two primary contenders, the Mets and Phillies, both had intriguing options at third base that could be bought should Bichette have entered the fold. Then, shortly after whiffing on Kyle Tucker, Bichette officially inked his deal with the Mets for three years, $126 million. In doing so, both Brett Baty's and Mark Vientos' place in the lineup became unclear. FanGraph's Mets Roster Resource page currently has Baty slotted at DH, while Vientos has been relegated to being a bench piece versus righties and then playing first against lefties. Baty is likely to be benched against southpaws. Both of these guys are too good to be platooning for each other. With the Bichette signing, the Mets are in a similar predicament at third that the Red Sox are in in the outfield. Even after their Freddy Peralta blockbuster that cost them top prospect Jett Williams, New York clearly has a logjam to sort through. You can probably see where this is going. Issac Paredes has been linked more intensely in recent days to the Red Sox and our own @Brandon Glick outlined how effective he could be at Fenway. But there appears to be more pressure in the Big Apple for the Mets to add and more holes to fill. Along with that, Baty and Vientos hit free agency in 2030, whereas Paredes hits the market in 2028. This will surely make one of Vientos or Baty more expensive than Paredes, but the Red Sox have the pitching and outfield depth necessary to meet the needs of the Mets to get a deal done. Brett Baty (2025): .254/.313/.435, 18 HR, 50 RBI, 1 11 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR The 2025 season was a mini-breakout for Baty, finally unlocking some of his potential in the second half. After posting a pedestrian 92 wRC+ prior to the Midsummer Classic, Baty found his stride, ripping a 135 wRC+ to conclude the season. He increased his average by 65 points, shooting up from .226 to .291, and he increased his walk rate from 6.0 to 9.0 percent while maintaining a 73 percent contact rate and striking out at around the same clip. His xBA indicates that he's somewhere in between both of those totals, sitting at .257. Projection systems are skeptical of his power surge, but allow me to take a moment to push against the computers. The expected regression in the power department is likely due to a previous career high of nine home runs in 2023, fair enough. But a 26-year-old with a max EV of 115.6 mph, a 107 mph 90th percentile EV, and a 90.5 mph average exit velocity has more room to grow. Looking at the above graphic; Baty excels in almost every category that involves mashing the baseball. The issue he runs into is that he hits far too many ground balls. His average launch angle is 5.8 degrees, and his 52.6 percent ground ball rate is the ninth-highest in baseball (min. 300 PA), limiting his power output. So yes, he smokes the baseball, but far too often it's right into the dirt. Despite this, Baty was still an above-league-average bat and set career-highs in most power metrics. Regarding his defense, his Fielding Run Value is 48th percentile, and his Outs Above Average was 69th percentile. He also boasted four Defensive Runs Saved, a five-run improvement over 2024. There is still room to grow in this profile, and if he learns to elevate even a bit more, this is absolutely a 25-plus HR threat waiting to happen. Mark Vientos: .233/.289/.413, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 97 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR Vientos' 2025 was a far cry from his breakout 2024 season, where he slugged 27 home runs, raking to the tune of a .837 OPS. Looking at his 2024 expected stats, regression appeared imminent. Vientos outperformed his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all by at least 20 points. Interestingly enough, his 2025 went the exact opposite way, though not to the same extreme. His skills remained largely the same as well, keeping his exit velocity in the upper-third of the league and a nearly identical launch angle. His contact rate improved from 66 to 73 percent, and his strikeout rate fell from 29.7 to 24.8 percent, yet his batting average declined. Assuming those gains hold, he profiles as a better on-base contributor moving forward. Like his third base partner, his second half showed meaningful improvement. The most clear jump was his performance versus lefties. Vientos supported an abysmal 49 wRC+ against southpaws in the first half, and that number jumped up to a 155 wRC+ post-All-Star break. His OPS against lefties likewise saw a dramatic increase, jumping from .547 all the way to .914. Vientos hit the IL on June 3 due to a left hamstring strain, which knocked him out for a month. It's possible that it was a lingering injury that finally sidelined him after trying to play through it. Defensively, he profiles more as a DH than a third baseman, providing -7 Outs Above Average at the hot corner. That could be an issue for the Red Sox, who like to prioritize versatility among their infielders. Which option is better for Red Sox? Vientos' best season is better than Brett Baty's, but I think Baty has a higher ceiling left in his career. He hits the ball harder, plays a better third base, and gets on base with a higher frequency. Both of these options look like they're due for a better 2026 than what their full-season numbers displayed, but Baty showed tangible growth. Vientos stayed largely the same, but the good luck completely turned over on its head. He's a player of the caliber of somewhere in the middle of his 2024 and 2025 seasons, whereas Baty has another gear we have yet to see. cU82Z1FfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlFkWlVBSlFVZ2NBWGxFRUFBQUhVZzlXQUZoWEJsTUFDd1FBVTFjR1VnSlVCUVlF.mp4 A complete offseason involves acquiring an infield bat. Whether that comes from Queens, Houston, or elsewhere remains to be seen, but there are great options available. It's on the Red Sox to go out and get one. View the full article

First, there was the Isaac Paredes trade. In July 2024, as they teetered on the tightrope of contention for an NL Wild Card berth, the Cubs traded talented but positionless could-be slugger Christopher Morel, promising reliever Hunter Bigge and far-off prospect Ty Johnson to the Rays for controllable, All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes. It was a bold move, designed to help the team both in the present—Morel was still struggling to connect his raw talent with his baseball skills, and simply wasn't playable at third base anymore—and in the future. Paredes came with three and a half years of team control, so to make an upgrade from Morel to him, the Cubs coughed up two interesting arms. As I wrote at that time, that move was part of a shift in organizational philosophy and direction, which has not abated since. The team understood that, having languished a few years already on the wrong side of .500 and after firing David Ross to hire Craig Counsell and make him the highest-paid manager in baseball in November 2023, they needed to deliver on-field results soon, so they began systematically converting long-term value into short-term value. It meant churning through their draft classes faster, converting them from prospects with vague asset value into real help in the majors as quickly as possible. Thus, it was no real surprise when the team included 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith in their deal for Kyle Tucker in December 2024. That deal also sent Paredes to Houston (after an unlucky and unproductive half-season in Chicago), though, and the Cubs also threw in young pitcher Hayden Wesneski. It was a lot to give up for one year of Tucker, who became a free agent after the 2025 World Series. Tucker didn't have a once-in-a-lifetime season with the team, either. He was the anchor of an extremely productive lineup in the first half, but he had a very inconsistent, injury-dimmed second half and played little part for the team down the stretch or in October. The Cubs organization, Wrigley Field and Tucker didn't form a love connection, and the team didn't seriously court him when he hit free agency. Although it's not entirely fair to Tucker, for many fans, the emblematic moment of his year in Chicago will be his pivotal strikeout during the team's only promising rally in Game 5 of the NLDS. Resist the temptation to let that set of facts mark the trade as anything but a resounding success, though. Tucker won't be a long-term part of the Cubs, and his influence was positive but not transformative on the field. However, he was what the 2025 team needed to get over the hump and back into the postseason, and the benefits of that extend far beyond last year. As we've reported here before, the Cubs' ownership group (including members of the Ricketts family, but also high-level business operations staff, like team president Crane Kenney) sets each year's baseball operations budget based on the previous year's revenue. Arguably, that's a closed-minded, overly conservative way for a team as rich and popular as the Cubs to do business, but it's what they do. One benefit of the approach is that success is self-sustaining. The better the team does, the more money they make, and the more money they make, the more money they're permitted to spend the following year. The baseball operations staff under Jed Hoyer astutely recognized that moves that boosted their hopes last season would increase their flexibility thereafter. That informed not only their trade for Tucker, but their efforts to land (first) Tanner Scott and (later) Alex Bregman. This way of thinking about their constraints and their opportunities is really just an extension of the way Hoyer and company do business all the time. It's similar to the way they eschewed higher-rated prospects to take Cade Horton in the first round in 2022, and used the savings to draft Jackson Ferris—whom they'd then include in the Michael Busch trade months later. It's also akin to their philosophy on free agency, which favors the middle of the market over pursuits of players in position for megadeals, even though ownership would sign off on a $400-million deal if it fit into the overall budget for Hoyer. The Hoyer Cubs aren't playing 4-D chess, but they are playing regular chess. When they make a move, they know that some of the things that happen next will be beyond their control, and they accept that. To select a move, they consider which move gives them the most desirable set of long-term outcomes and chances to pivot toward a new strategy if needed. Trading for Tucker looked, from the outside, like an all-in move for 2025, especially when they didn't push hard for an extension with him that spring. Now, though, we can see how the value will spill forward, into 2026 and beyond. Making the playoffs directly earned the Cubs perhaps $25 million, and being good right from the outset ensured that they also made more throughout the summer than they would have otherwise. Tucker was a big reason for that, and a meaningful chunk of the $50 million or so in total revenue increase from 2024 to 2025 can be ascribed to the trade for him. That increase boosted the budget for 2026 and made signing Alex Bregman possible, which is likely to keep the team competitive and increase their revenues over the life of that deal. The team can also recoup some value via the draft pick they're set to receive as compensation for Tucker signing elsewhere. Even if they sign free agent Zac Gallen, giving up a pick in the process, they'll be one pick richer for having had and lost Tucker than if they'd had the same offseason but never had him. The team is still rolling up future value and exchanging it for present value. After dealing Smith and Paredes, they backfilled third base by fast-tracking 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw to the lineup last spring; they might trade him for even more present utility before camp opens. They traded top prospect Owen Caissie for Edward Cabrera earlier this month. Last summer, they took an injured but polished college hitter (Ethan Conrad) with their top pick, giving themselves a chance for a quick payoff on their investment either via extremely rapid development for a kid taken so low in the first round or via a blockbuster trade in July. However, that doesn't mean they're forgetting about the future. What they do to win games today is also designed to improve their chances tomorrow. The Tucker deal came at a high cost, but its dividends didn't end when he moved on. View the full article

As we wait for the Twins to give us clues to how the roster will fit together with the addition of veteran catcher Victor Caratini, we can also still speculate about some moves that could work. The Boston Red Sox are still seeking help at the catcher position. The two teams already primed the pump for trades with a minor move on Wednesday morning. Let's see if we can make a bigger trade work, sending Ryan Jeffers to Boston to solve their catching needs. Before the reported signing of Caratini to a two-year deal, one of the big question marks moving forward for the Twins was who would fill the catcher position come 2027. The Twins have collected plenty of catching talent recently, but none of those players is likely to reach the big leagues anytime soon. With Caratini in place, there is a baseline for 2027. If the Red Sox trade for Jeffers, they have a player who could help with the Twins' needs in 2027 and beyond. Connor Wong is currently slated to be the Red Sox's backup catcher, but he doesn’t fit into their long-term plans. Wong is similar to both Caratini and Jeffers, in that he isn’t highly regarded for his defense. His value should lie in his bat. Alas, last season, he did not deliver in that way, hitting .190 with a .500 OPS—a ghastly 39 wRC+ in 63 games. The Twins could be more patient with Wong, who still has an option year remaining and can be sent to the minors. While last year's offensive stats were not good, in 2024, he played in 126 games with a .280 batting average, 112 wRC+, and .758 OPS. while also hitting 13 home runs. The Twins could send Wong to St. Paul and hope the club can help him rediscover that 2024 offensive form, while letting Caratini and Alex Jackson set up behind the plate in Minneapolis. In this part of the trade, the Twins trade away Jeffers’s $6.7 million and replace it with Wong’s $1.375 million, which he'll earn in his first year of arbitration eligibility. That would save the Twins roughly $5.3 million, which could be used to further reinforce the bullpen. Speaking of the bullpen, considering how much more valuable Jeffers is than Wong, the Twins could turn to see if they could identify a reliever for the 2026 bullpen who is on the Red Sox roster. Boston's relief corps is not as deep as their starting rotation, but they could part with a middle-relief arm and use their starter candidates to patch the pen. Late-blooming Zack Kelly, 30, has four more years of team control and can still be optioned to the minors. His results last season were unimpressive, but he has plus stuff. For Twins fans, this return package likely feels underwhelming for a player who has been a key to any positive vibes recently for the club. It does fit with what some previous catcher trades have produced, though. Detroit traded for a half-season of catcher Carson Kelly in 2024, sending two minor leaguers, catcher Liam Hicks and pitcher Tyler Owens. Hicks has seen success with Miami after they selected him in the Rule 5 draft, while Owens debuted last season but pitched well in very limited chances. This past trade deadline, Danny Jansen netted the Rays a prospect in Jadher Areinamo. Before being traded, Areinamo was often ranked in the low 20s in Brewers prospect rankings, and has been successful in the Venezuelan league this winter. Both Jansen and Kelly had less control than Jeffers currently does, and Jeffers is better than either of them were, but it at least gives us a tentative range for Jeffers's value. He has upside, and the Red Sox could get a leg up on other teams in any effort to keep him around long-term by bringing him in now. That would certainly be reflected in a package of Wong and Kelly, who both have a major-league track record to look at and would be under team control for three and four more seasons, respectively. Is this a deal worth making to clean up what appears to be a confusing roster? Should the Twins just figure out how to make it work with both Jeffers and Caratini on the roster? Let's clump around the hot stove on a cold night and talk trade. View the full article

For Milwaukee Brewers fans planning on giving Freddy Peralta one last hurrah at American Family Field, circle the dates July 20-22 on your calendar. Those three days are the first time the Brewers will face the New York Mets in the 2026 season, and it happens at home. Peralta was traded Wednesday by the Brewers to the Mets along with right-handed starter Tobias Myers for two prospects, infielder-outfielder Jett Williams and right-handed starter Brandon Sproat. Peralta is very likely to pitch in that series and could get some help from the Mets. The July 20-22 series is the second one following the All-Star break. The Mets face the Philadelphia Phillies coming out of the break, with a game on July 16, a day off, then July 18-19 at Citizens Bank Park. When Peralta pitches would depend on whether he makes the All-Star Game. Peralta is a two-time All-Star, including in 2025. Let's say that Peralta makes the All-Star Game with the Mets. That would push his first start to at least Saturday, July 18, after the break. Considering teams have the chance to reset their rotations at the break, Peralta is likely to be consulted as to whether he wants to pitch in the series vs. the Brewers, which is a Monday-Wednesday affair. The Mets would need to choose not to pitch Peralta against the two-time defending NL East champion Phillies in order to save him for a sentimental start against the Brewers. That would likely mean Peralta would start the Monday, July 20 game. Now, if Peralta doesn't make the All-Star Game but is still pitching well, he could start the Mets' first game out of the break on Thursday, July 16. That would set Peralta up to start the finale of the three-game series at American Family Field on Wednesday, July 22, an afternoon getaway game. However it plays out, the Brewers are likely to have an emotional tribute video ready for Peralta for the opening game of the series as he makes his return to Milwaukee for the first time since the trade. The Brewers don't play in New York until a midweek series Aug. 25-27. Coincidentally, the Brewers did not have a Peralta-themed promotional item (bobblehead, etc.) scheduled for the upcoming season. View the full article

The Chicago Cubs have signed former Astros outfielder Chas McCormick to a minor-league contract with an invite to Spring Training, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. McCormick was outrighted off the Astros roster following the 2025 season where he missed nearly 2 months with a left oblique strain. He appeared in 64 games at the Major League level and slashed .210/.279/.290 with a -1.0 WAR. For the second straight season, McCormick appeared in fewer than 100 games while posting a negative WAR. McCormick is nothing more than an outfield depth flier for the Cubs. The soon-to-be 31 year old looked like a late-blooming star in 2023 when he hit .273 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and an .842 OPS; all while playing above average defense across the outfield. As it stands, McCormick will be competing for a backup outfielder role with top prospect Kevin Alcantara and newly acquired Justin Dean, who are both on the 40 man roster. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins took their first (somewhat) significant step toward shoring up their depleted bullpen, signing former Twin Taylor Rogers to a 1-year, $2-million deal on Thursday. With the annual TwinsFest celebration happening this weekend, some in team leadership are concerned that things might get out of hand. “There’s definitely some worry that the fans might go overboard in their revelry, like Woodstock ’99,” said a source close to the Pohlad ownership group. “We signed a reliever they’ve heard of. And he used to be one of us. They might become feral. “Do we need extra security? Taylor Rogers Fever is a real phenomenon.” While no longer the All-Star he once was, Rogers likely slides into a setup role, and he could close. It’s unknown if he will appear at TwinsFest for media appearances, autograph signings, or meet-and-greets. The team doesn’t want to take any chances. “Put simply, the fans need to understand that just because we’ve finally done exactly what they’ve wanted, it’s no reason to be boisterous or rowdy,” said another source familiar with the Pohlads’ thinking. “If they run roughshod over Target Field or attempt to hoist TC Bear on their shoulders, it could end in tragedy. TC Bear’s struggles with anxiety and personal space are well-documented.” TwinsFest takes place on Friday, January 23 and Saturday, January 24, at Target Field. The only previous example of unruly behavior at the long-running festival was at the adjacent 2022 Winter Meltdown, when the now-shuttered Pourhouse was unable to satisfy Star Tribune journalist Phil Miller’s request for a decent, full-flavored hazy IPA. His shirtless tirade was deemed “colorful” and “remarkably profane, even for a sportswriter” by witnesses. “After the Miller incident, we simply can’t take chances,” said the source. “We know the (Winter) Meltdown audience is mostly freaks, baseball perverts, and communists, but what if that seeps into the family-oriented TwinsFest? We’re on high alert.” Image license here. View the full article

Following the acquisition of superstar, third baseman, Alex Bregman, rumors have been swirling, the Chicago Cubs, and two of their utility infielders regarding their role with the team. While it seems unlikely that Nico Horner ends up being traded, Matt Shaw seems like a more likely candidate. Or, maybe they'll just turn him into a super utility… John Antonoff shared video via his X account of Chicago Cubs infielder Matt Shaw taking reps in the outfield. However, how deep we can look at that remains to be unclear. On one hand, they could be getting shot reps so that he can play either corner outfield spot when Ian Happ or Seiya Suzuki need a rest. While both players are strong, offensively, they are both average two slightly below, average defenders at their respective positions. Shaw's experience in the outfield is extremely limited, while he doesn't have any professional experience, he did appear and left and right field a total of 40 times as an amateur. Depending on how quickly he can pick up outfield defense, he may not be much of a downgrade when half or Suzuki need a day off. On the other hand, the Cubs could be using this time as an opportunity for teams to see that Shaw in the outfield is within the realm of possibility. Do you think the Cubs end up hanging onto Shaw? Let us know in the comments! View the full article

The phrase "limitations breed creativity" isn't often applied to athletics, but as the lone major American sport without a salary cap (for now), Major League Baseball creates a unique environment that demands creativity from certain franchises in order to remain relevant. That's perhaps never been more salient than it is right now, with payroll disparities across the league reaching record levels. In a world where the Los Angeles Dodgers are spending $120 million for one season of Kyle Tucker (when factoring in luxury tax payments), it's growing increasingly difficult for small-market teams to compete for titles. And yet, that hasn't stopped the Milwaukee Brewers from winning four of the last five NL Central titles, despite playing in the same division as the big-market Chicago Cubs. A rebuild from the latter certainly helped matters, but the Crew have just kept on winning, despite never running a yearly payroll higher than $135 million. It's been astonishing work of creating a yearly product that is always larger than the sum of its parts. However, those payroll limitations have caught up with the Brewers. After Brandon Woodruff accepted the qualifying offer (valued a little over $22 million in 2026), the team was up against their internal spending limits. They eventually capitulated to the financial strain, trading longtime ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets (alongside Tobias Meyers) in exchange for top prospects Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. This isn't a new phenomenon for the Brewers, either. Just last offseason, they dealt All-Star closer Devin Williams and received their third baseman of the future (Caleb Durbin) in return. The year before that, it was Cy-Young-winner Corbin Burnes getting shipped to Baltimore for a gaggle of high-upside prospects, including starting shortstop Joey Ortiz. Wind the clock back a few more months, and you'll find Josh Hader being sent via first-class delivery to San Diego. Rip up a bunch of yearly calendars, and you'll find history repeating itself in the form of Yovani Gallardo being traded to the Texas Rangers. All of those players had just one year remaining on their respective deals at the time of their trades, save for Hader who had an extra half-year of control (his was a trade deadline deal). That's simply the price of doing business in Milwaukee; they know they can't pay to extend their superstar players, and so they capitalize on each one's value before they reach free agency. It's a savvy way of doing business, though it also comes with the tremendous risk of always parting with the best player at the time of the trade. There's no guarantee that the prospects the Brewers receive — even with with their excellent scouting department and player development program — will ever amount to anything in the major leagues. This brings us back to the Cubs, who often find themselves on the opposite end of such deals. You need look no further than last winter for such an example, when they acquired Tucker from the Houston Astros for a package headlined by top prospect Cam Smith and third baseman Isaac Paredes. There are new ways to assess Tucker's tenure now that he's officially leaving after only one year in the Windy City, but that's sort of the point of such trades; the superstar-receiving party is guaranteed one year of the player, whereas the superstar-sending party takes on the risk of developing prospects who come with many years of control. The Cubs got what they hoped for out of their sole season with Tucker — a 90-win season, a return to contention, and a playoff series win — but the value he provided in 2025 is all the value he'll ever provide to the team. The Astros, meanwhile, now get a half-decade with Cam Smith to try and keep their own contention window open a little longer. Now, for all their regular-season success, the Brewers haven't won a World Series during this current window. In fact, they haven't even made the Fall Classic, and they've only made the NLCS twice (2018, 2025) just to be stopped short by the free-spending Dodgers both times. Trading great players for long-term control of really good ones is a solid strategy for a 162-game season, but lowering your short-term ceiling is only bound to hurt you in the playoffs. That's the reality facing the Brewers, though. When they trade a star, they'll get young talent in return, but they also do so with the intention of cutting payroll. They only saved $8 million in the Peralta deal, but you can be sure ownership is counting every dollar that comes in or out of the organization. Though the Ricketts may be prone to the same billionaire phenomenon, the Cubs don't have to trade stars in order to save money. There's a good argument to be made that they should be extending more of their in-house standouts (á la the Braves or Red Sox), but that's a conversation for another time. What matters now is that Chicago's list of impending free agents following the 2026 season is as large as it is impressive; the non-exhaustive highlights include Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, and Nico Hoerner. Factor in options that aren't likely to be exercised, and you can include Carson Kelly and Matthew Boyd among that crop. Of course, the 2026 Cubs will be better with all of those players on their team. If the goal is simply to win the title this year, there's no argument to be made otherwise. But we know Jed Hoyer likes to talk about this being a multi-year operation, and the 2027 Cubs will be significantly worse if most or all of those players walk in exchange for nothing, save for maybe a few extra draft picks via declined qualifying offers. Barring a few extensions that add more long-term money to the books, isn't it reasonable for the organization to follow in the Brewers' footsteps and trade a player or two for some major-league ready talent that has to play for cheap? All this lamenting and posturing isn't meant to encourage the conclusion that the Cubs should mimic every facet of the Brewers' operation. As the big-market, deep-pocketed team in the division, the North Siders should aggressively spend on marquee talents, much like they did with Alex Bregman a few weeks ago. They should be aggressive in trades during competitive windows, much like they were in acquiring Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins. Even in the rare instance that a superstar player like Kyle Tucker becomes available, it'd be foolish for the Cubs not to at least throw their hat in the ring. But this is a salient conversation amidst a potential MLB lockout, crumbling TV deal, and, of course, the Cubs' self-imposed budget constraints. With so many players due for free agency in a year's time, the front office must weigh the ramifications of lowering the short-term ceiling in order to keep the window of contention pried open a little longer. The Brewers have successfully walked that tightrope for the last half-decade; the Cubs may be destined for second place until they muster the courage to take the same leap of faith. View the full article

The Twins entered the offseason with everything on the table. It felt very possible that they would trade their few remaining star players, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton. Instead, they chose to keep these players, to the delight of fans, as they announced their intention to contend in 2026. As we look at the roster as February approaches, it may be time to ask why they chose this path. The Twins should make every effort to contend every season. They play in the AL Central, which has long been one of baseball's less competitive and lower-spending divisions. They also have a handful of star-caliber players to build a successful roster around. They had a clear path to contention, with a handful of additions to bolster the roster. As spring training approaches, though, it’s unclear whether they’ve made a reasonable effort to build a contender. Minnesota's offseason has moved them forward, rather than backward, but has it pushed them back to the front of the underwhelming pack? Context is key: Several of their decisions are understandable in a vacuum, but eyebrow-raising in the context of their situation. Tendering Trevor Larnach a $4.475-million contract yields reasonable value. So does bringing in Josh Bell for $7 million. Carrying two players who are best-served in a DH role on a team with strict financial limitations seems excessive. Adding Alex Jackson via trade to back up Ryan Jeffers, who is expected to take on a bigger role, was reasonable. So was signing Victor Caratini to a multi-year deal last week. Carrying three catchers on this already disjointed roster doesn’t make a lot of sense, though, so now, either Jackson or Jeffers seems likely to be headed out the door. Meanwhile, as the Twins continue to invest their limited payroll in adding to logjams across the roster, they’ve made just two modest additions to the bullpen (Eric Orze and Taylor Rogers), after parting with several cost-controlled, high-leverage relievers at last year’s trade deadline. After preaching athleticism and defense at the end of another disappointing 2025 season, the roster has arguably gone in the other direction, looking likely to be one of the slowest and worst defensive squads in baseball once again. Their logjam of left-handed bats has not been resolved, and even their additions to the offense, such as Bell and Caratini, who are switch-hitters, are better from the left side. The bullpen, which should have been priority number one going into the offseason, has been only lightly reinforced and projects to be one of the worst in baseball in 2026. The offseason may not yet be complete, but the current roster is so flawed that it’s difficult to see how the issues will be resolved without a historic flurry of moves. No matter what the Twins say, this is not a championship-caliber roster. So why didn’t they just sell off their star players, if the current roster is anything close to the final product? It’s possible that the decision to keep all of their stars earlier this offseason was made to appease fans, rather than to compete in 2026. They said all the right things about the fanbase's cratering interest in their product, and then announced they wouldn’t tear the roster down any further. Trading away their remaining valuable veterans and fan favorites would have alienated the fans even further, before the season even started. Given a payroll that will already be significantly lower than last season’s, they could afford to keep these players and try to regain fans' trust. For now, though, the offseason has been insufficient to meet that objective. Perhaps there are more moves to be made, but it’s impossible to envision a functional roster on the field for Opening Day with anything less than a complete overhaul. They may have kept their star players for now, but they’re headed for another major trade deadline selloff in July, based on how they’ve handled the offseason thus far. It’s possible this was the intention all along—that Ryan, Lopez, and Buxton weren’t kept to build a competitor for 2026, but rather to temporarily hit pause on the free-falling interest of their fanbase, with knowledge that they could still bring a haul at the trade deadline. It’s either that, or they genuinely believe that the roster as currently constructed can compete in 2026. At the moment, neither option inspires confidence. View the full article

The 2026 international amateur signing period began on January 15. Strictly speaking, it runs for 11 months (until December 15), though most signings take place right away. There will always be exceptions – the Blue Jays signed Korean right-hander Seojun Moon last September – but the majority of these deals come together as handshake agreements well before the signing window actually opens. Once it does, the teams and their new prospects tend to put pen to paper almost immediately. The Toronto Blue Jays entered this year's signing period with $5.94 million to spend. That's on the low end, but it's not as low as it could have been. The Blue Jays just managed to get under the luxury tax threshold in 2024, which means they only lost $500,000 in bonus pool space for signing free agent Anthony Santander, who received a qualifying offer. If the Jays hadn't gotten under the tax, they would have lost another $500,000. That would have tied them with the Yankees, Mets, Astros, and Giants, who have the smallest bonus pools in the league for this year's signing period. Spending rules are strict when it comes to international amateur free agency. Teams can add more bonus pool money in trades, as the Blue Jays did last winter, taking on Myles Straw's contract from the Guardians in exchange for an extra $2 million to offer Roki Sasaki. However, there are rules. Bonus space can only be dealt in increments of $250,000, and clubs cannot acquire more than 60% of their original assigned pool. This year, for instance, Toronto could not have traded for more than $3.25 million. Bonus pool space is a valuable trade asset because teams cannot exceed their allotment (original pool + any bonus money acquired in trades) for any reason. This isn't like the first-year player draft, in which teams can accept a penalty and spend more than they have in their bonus pool. It's a hard cap. Well... except that bonuses of $10,000 or less do not come out of the pool. The Jays could spend up to $5.94 million in larger bonuses this year and still hand out as many $10,000 bonuses as they'd like. So, how have the Blue Jays been using their $5.94 million? On Wednesday, they announced the signings of 27 international free agents: Player Position Country of Origin Juan Caricote C Venezuela Sebastian Casanova INF Venezuela Yariel Cordero INF Dominican Republic Sahir De La Cruz RHP Dominican Republic Abrahan Diaz RHP Venezuela Fayone Dumorne RHP Dominican Republic Frelian Flores INF Venezuela Evington Gascon RHP Venezuela Deret Gonzalez OF Venezuela Jose Gori C Venezuela Elian Guzman LHP Dominican Republic Celwin Hurkmans LHP Netherlands Alex Linares INF Dominican Republic Eiker Lothar INF Venezuela Michael Mesa OF Dominican Republic Yoenis Morales RHP Cuba Adrian Moreta RHP Dominican Republic Luis Nunez OF Dominican Republic Samuel Orellana C Venezuela Ayberson Ortega C Venezuela Manuel Parra RHP Venezuela Gabriel Porras INF Venezuela Ruben Sanchez INF Venezuela Aneudi Severino OF Dominican Republic Franiel Severino RHP Dominican Republic Alieski Torres RHP Cuba Isay Veras C Dominican Republic Elian Guzman, Celwin Hurkmans, Isay Veras, and Alieski Torres signed in December, at least according to MLB.com's transaction tracker. In other words, those four might technically count among the international class of 2025. The other 23 officially joined the organization this past week. Catcher Juan Caricote commanded just over one-third of Toronto's bonus pool. MLB.com has him signing for $1,847,500, while Baseball America reported a slightly higher figure, $1.95 million. Outfielder Michael Mesa received the second-largest bonus of the class, though MLB.com and Baseball America are farther apart in their reported figures. MLB.com has him earning $797,500, while BA suggests it's $900,000. The last prospect whose bonus has been reported is outfielder Aneudi Severino. (Some sources spell his name "Aneudy," but MLB.com and the announcement from the Blue Jays spell his name with an "i" at the end.) MLB.com has his bonus at $697,500, while BA has it at $700,000. That's likely just a rounding error rather than a meaningful difference in reporting. According to Baseball America's Bonus Board, Caricote received the 17th-highest bonus in this year's international class. Mesa's bonus ranks 55th and Severino's 71st. Regardless of whether you take the slightly higher figures from MLB.com or the slightly lower ones from BA, that's just under two-thirds of the bonus pool on those three players. As far as we know, none of the other 24 signed for more than $300,000, though further details about their bonuses are a mystery. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Caricote as the 11th-best prospect in this year's international class. The 17-year-old backstop was the only one of Toronto's signees to appear on FanGraphs's list, which went 59 players deep. He also appeared at No. 10 on FanGraphs's latest ranking of Toronto's top 40 prospects. Again, he was the only member of this year's international class to make the cut. Interestingly, however, Caricote was not included on MLB.com's ranking of the top 50 international prospects – but Mesa was. The lefty-batting outfielder came in at No. 30, with a blurb saying he could be the Dominican Republic's "best hitter in the ‘26 class." Baseball America does not rank international prospects, but Ben Badler published a write-up of the Blue Jays' signees, highlighting Caricote, Mesa, and Severino, as well as shortstops Sebastian Casanova and Gabriel Porras. Last year, shortstop Cristopher Polanco was Toronto's top-ranked international amateur signing, receiving a $2,297,500 bonus. However, fellow shortstop Juan Sanchez ($997,500 bonus) quickly became the star of the 2025 class. The young slugger put on a show in the DSL in his first professional season and is now widely considered a top-10 prospect in the system. View the full article

The unthinkable (yet inevitable) happened. The Milwaukee Brewers traded away ace right-hander Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets for two prospects on Wednesday night. The Brewers acquired infielder-outfielder Jett Williams, the Mets' No. 3 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, and right-hander Brandon Sproat, their No. 5 prospect, while also shipping right-hander Tobias Myers to New York. Losing the 29-year-old Peralta, who developed from a minor-league wild card when acquired in a December 2015 trade from the Seattle Mariners for first baseman Adam Lind, certainly puts a dent in the Crew's rotation. Last year, Peralta finished fifth in NL Cy Young Award voting after an NL-best 17 wins, a 3.64 FIP, 2.70 ERA, and more than 200 strikeouts for the third consecutive year. Opponents hit just .193 against him in 2025, as he put up 5.5 bWAR. Still, with Peralta due a very affordable $8 million in his last season of club control in 2026 and being likely to earn three times that amount in average annual value in his next contract, he became a hot trade commodity, with the Brewers unlikely to re-sign him. It was the second time in three offseasons that the Brewers traded away their ace. In early 2024, they swapped former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for left-hander DL Hall and shortstop Joey Ortiz. Where does that leave the Brewers' starting rotation? They're still in pretty good shape, regardless of where Sproat is slotted. The Brewers finished with the third-best starting rotation ERA in MLB at 3.56, and figure to roll out a top five of Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Jacob Misiorowski and two of Sproat, Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick, Robert Gasser or Hall. All but Gasser and Hall are right-handers. Myers would also have been in the last group battling for the No. 5 role or a spot in the bullpen. Woodruff, who turns 33 on Feb. 10, stayed with the Crew after accepting the qualifying offer of $22.025 million instead of becoming a free agent. Woodruff also becomes the leading candidate for Opening Day starter, after returning in 2025 from right shoulder surgery but then missing the postseason with a right lat injury. He is expected to be fine when spring training begins next month. In 12 starts, Woodruff had a 3.17 FIP and 3.20 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 64⅔ innings. He had a 5.4% walk rate and 32.3% strikeout rate, both the best of his career. Now, Woodruff will be asked to lead the staff in what could be his final season with the Crew. The No. 2 spot in the rotation is likely to go to Priester, although Misiorowski could easily step up. The 25-year-old Priester was the feel-good story of the Brewers' rotation in 2025. Acquired just a couple weeks into the season from the Boston Red Sox while stuck at Triple-A Worcester, all Priester did was finish second to Peralta in wins with his 13-3 record, which included going unbeaten in 19 straight appearances, all but three being starts. Priester had a 4.01 FIP and 3.32 ERA in 29 games (24 starts). Priester is not a big strikeout pitcher, which is reflected in his 20.2% strikeout rate against a 7.7% walk rate. It wouldn't be surprising to see Priester take the next step, as he enters camp locked into the Brewers' rotation and on the Opening Day roster for the first time. Misiorowski, meanwhile, has something to prove after being shifted to the bullpen late in the season and for the postseason following a spectacular start to his MLB career. His triple-digit four-seam fastball is what makes all the highlights, but his growth into an ace hinges on improving his control and how he uses his slider and curveball. Misiorowski had a 3.62 FIP and 4.36 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) in the regular season. At 6-foot-7, with a gangly frame, he had a whopping 11.4% walk rate, which is only slightly offset by his 31.9% strikeout rate. He did allow just a .213 opponent batting average. Misiorowski will turn 24 just after Opening Day. If he can mitigate his wildness, his combination of blazing fastball and knee-buckling breaking balls would be deadly. Those three are locks in the rotation. The rest of these names are in much more fluid positions. Let's start with the 25-year-old Sproat, a second-round draft choice by the Mets in 2023 as a senior out of Florida. He's the player who will initially draw a lot of attention, as a direct replacement for Peralta. While ranked as the Mets' No. 5 prospect, he was not in MLB Pipeline's Top 100. Sproat did rank 81st in Baseball America's just-released Top 100; Williams checked in at No. 71. A 6-foot-3, 215-pound right-hander, Sproat made four late-season starts for the Mets in 2025. He pitched six innings in each of his first two starts, while his last two were more rocky. He allowed four runs in each, one going four innings and the other 4⅔. He struck out 17 in 20⅔ innings, including seven in his debut, while walking seven. While Sproat has a good four-seamer at 96.7 mph, he only used that 13.8% of the time. A 95.7-mph sinker was his most-used pitch in his four big-league starts, at 34.1%, indicating he is more of a groundball pitcher, which suits the Brewers' defense. He had a 66.7% grounder rate on balls in play off his sinker. In addition to his four-seamer and sinker, Sproat also mixed in his 84.2-mph sweeper (16.2%), 90.2-mph changeup (14.8%) and 79.9-mph curveball (14.8%). He sprinkles in an 87.9-mph slider 6.2% of the time. Sproat, who made 25 starts at Triple-A Syracuse in 2025, will obviously get a long look in spring training and be given every chance to earn a rotation spot. If not, a trip to Triple-A Nashville wouldn't be out of the question, but he would likely be the first starter summoned when an injury arises. Sproat doesn't profile as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but a solid mid-rotation performer. A month shy of turning 24, Henderson is perhaps a forgotten part of the Crew's rotation plan. Henderson made just five big-league starts, before missing almost the entire final two months of the regular season with right elbow inflammation. While something to monitor in spring training, it shouldn't be a concern. Henderson made his debut in late April with a nine-strikeout performance over six innings. After going back to Nashville for about three weeks, he made three more starts, going five innings each time, and allowed a total of three runs. He made one more start in early August, before being sidelined. He had a 3.02 FIP and 1.75 ERA in those five starts, with an 8.1% walk rate and 33.3% strikeout rate. Combine that with a 3.59 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) at Nashville, and he has proven himself worthy of a rotation berth. Patrick proved to be a valuable piece of the Crew's pitching puzzle in 2025. He made 23 starts and four relief appearances during the regular season, posting a 3.53 FIP and an identical ERA, with an 8% walk rate and 25.2% strikeout rate. While the 27-year-old profiles as a starter, Patrick found a different gear in a late-season and postseason relief role. That makes opening the season in the bullpen even more enticing, while knowing that he could convert back to a starter if needed. Patrick allowed three hits and one walk while striking out 11 in nine relief innings in the postseason. Gasser returned to the majors in late September for two abbreviated starts, then made two postseason relief appearances. He made the Brewers' Opening Day roster in 2024 and had five starts before blowing out his left elbow. He is the last piece of the Josh Hader trade still with the Crew, and was the most anticipated player acquired, but has yet to truly showcase himself because of the injury. Gasser will be at full strength come spring training, and a front-runner for the rotation as the lone left-hander among these candidates. Finally, Hall, who hasn't been able to stay on the field long enough the past two seasons to make an impact, deserves at least momentary consideration. He has appeared in 33 games since coming over from the Orioles, 23 of them in relief. Hall began 2025 with a lat strain, came back around Memorial Day, pitched in 20 games, then went down with a strained right oblique in mid-August that ended his season. He put up a 3.73 FIP and 3.49 ERA in 2025, but had an 11% walk rate and just a 17.4% strikeout rate. It might be better to keep him in a relief role until he can prove he can remain healthy. Although they're dark horses, I will mention two other rotation candidates, in left-handers Aaron Ashby and Ángel Zerpa. Ashby has carved out a nice relief role and been a little uneven when given a chance to start, so it is difficult to see the Brewers forcing him out of his comfort zone, but letting him try to stretch out in the spring wouldn't hurt anything. Zerpa was acquired this offseason from the Kansas City Royals for outfielder Isaac Collins and right-handed reliever Nick Mears. He's likely to stay in the bullpen, where he found success in Kansas City, but the team did mention trying him as a starter just after the trade. Of course, the Brewers could always sign a veteran on a short deal for more competition, like they did with left-hander Jose Quintana last year. For now, though, they have a clear top three and a high-variance but high-upside battery of options to round out the back of the rotation. Even without Peralta, they should be a good pitching staff in 2026. View the full article

The Minnesota Twins have agreed to a one-year, major-league deal with left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers, sources tell Twins Daily. Rogers, 35, was the Twins' 11th-round draft pick in 2012 and spent the first six seasons of his major-league career with the team, posting a 3.15 ERA in 319 appearances and recording 50 saves. Last season, for the Reds and Cubs, he had a 3.38 ERA in 57 relief appearances. Once a high-strikeout control artist, Rogers misses fewer bats these days, and his walk rate has ticked up sharply in the last few years. Twins fans remember a pitcher whose fastball could play like a two-seamer with solid ride and who utilized two distinct breaking balls, but Rogers is now purely a sinker-slider guy, with age and injuries having frayed his command of each. Nonetheless, he's an effective middle reliever, especially when he can be shielded from right-handed batters. Rogers first hit free agency after the 2022 season, and signed a three-year $33-million deal with the Giants. San Francisco dumped his salary in a trade that sent Rogers to the Reds last winter, and he was technically dealt twice in July, going from the Reds to the Pirates to the Cubs without actually appearing in Pittsburgh. His strikeout rate of 24% last season was his lowest since 2017, and he's no longer in high demand, but he remains a sturdy relief option—and a cheap one, at just $2 million. Presumably, he'll slot in alongside Kody Funderburk as the main lefties in a bullpen that leans to the right. There's a chance that Rogers will even pick up some save opportunities for Minnesota; he's easily the most accomplished big-league reliever on their staff. Picking up Josh Bell, Victor Caratini and a melange of fringier players gave Derek Falvey's front office the depth they craved on the positional side. However, until now, they'd neglected the bullpen, which was emptied at last year's trade deadline and looks like the most glaring weakness for the 2026 team. This move is a small step toward fully addressing that issue, but it's a concrete one. Rogers is a familiar face, and a reliable addition to a high-variance collection of arms. View the full article